2010 Hot Stove Post #1: CHONE hitter projections
by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 4:44 PM EST
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PrintThe CHONE projection system, created by Sean Smith of THT, FanGraphs and Anaheim Angels all the Way, we're recently released to the public. They are generally considered the best system out there, and has been the most accurate since 2005 in terms of projection team performance.
You can go to his website Baseball Projection, to view the projections for each player (it's organized by team):
http://www.baseballprojection.com/
Here is the link for the Cardinals projections. The key number to look at is R/150, which is how many runs above average each player projects to be per 150 games.
Pujols looks amazing of course, and Ludwick's is not bad either. Allen Craig actually projects to be the third best hitter, but he's right about average along with Rasmus, Freese, Mather, Skip and Yadi.
You can also view a list of all of the free agents here. Matt Holliday projects to be the best hitter, at +27 runs, which isn't surprising, with Jason Bay right behind him. Mike Cameron projects to be surprisingly low, at -4 runs. Johnny Damon actually projects pretty well though.
This will be the first official Hot Stove Post for 2010, and at the risk of sounding authoritative, it would nice if you guys put all your offseason thoughts in this post, so we don't have like 10 different FanPosts about the same thing. I will update this thread once the pitcher and defensive projections are released.
H/T, the fantastic Tommy Bennent.
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Might as well rec it
so it’ll be in the recommended posts (right?) that way we can keep track of this as it is hot stove post #1.
Glaus is right up there near Ludwick
Might as well pick him up on the cheap since he’s been hurt and is older. I think it could happen that way.
No projection system has any way to really account for injuries
It’s take on Glaus is basically irrelevant compared to “how healthy is his shoulder”.
Not afraid to nitpick
But look at the number of games played
and remember he has to throw the ball from 3rd.. which is not an easy thing for him anymore
There are three things in my life which I really love: God, my family, and baseball. The only problem - once baseball season starts, I change the order around a bit. ~Al Gallagher, 1971
by wizardofozzie on Nov 18, 2009 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
A little more digging - Barden was made a free agent in October
I had missed that. Still curious about the presence of Barton on the list.
www.mpgillusion.com
They have the other Duncan
Shelley to be a +16 hitter
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 15, 2009 6:36 PM EST up reply actions
Using these numbers, and some rough defensive calculations
Matt Holliday projects to worth about 2 wins over Mike Cameron next year, and probably more the year after. That’s a pretty big difference, and I’m not sure if the difference in cost and years will be able to filter that out.
I still would rather not overpay for Holliday, so guys like Johnny Damon and Marlyn Byrd would seem to be decent fits as well.
Also, SIGN RICH HARDEN!
I don't think Cameron would require more than one year
maybe something like $10m with a $8m option for next year or something, at the most.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 15, 2009 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
HARDEN!
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 15, 2009 8:53 PM EST up reply actions
HARDENER!
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 8:21 AM EST up reply actions
Using these numbers, and some rough defensive calculations
Matt Holliday projects to worth about 2 wins over Mike Cameron next year, and probably more the year after. That’s a pretty big difference, and I’m not sure if the difference in cost and years will be able to filter that out.
I still would rather not overpay for Holliday, so guys like Johnny Damon and Marlyn Byrd would seem to be decent fits as well.
Also, SIGN RICH HARDEN!
It's a glitch in the Matrix
It happens when they change something…
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
They've turned the Franklin dial from "suck" to "blow".
Roll on 2010.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 8:22 AM EST up reply actions
Another interesting prognostication
coming from this is that CHONE sees Chris Duncan as a Cardinal.
As accurate as CHONE may be, lets hope it isn’t THAT accurate!
I don’t follow the predictions as closely as others here do, so this is an honest question- are those numbers as ugly as they look?
Projections are generally going to shoot a little low
Because they consider things like injuries, attrition rate, and they regress to the mean. However, they are supposed to represent the most likely outcomes.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 5:43 PM EST up reply actions
They don't
A 22 year old coming off 2 mediocre seasons in a row? Why would you project him for a breakout? Right now, they have him at almost exactly average with the bat. We know he has the potential to be much better than that, but we shouldn’t really expect it right now.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 6:06 PM EST up reply actions
my crystal ball
says a monster year, maybe his best of many very good years to come
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
wow, what's my future cardball
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
promising but ultimately shot down by a stalked woman
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
wow, that seems very likely
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
was she burning
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
who is Javier Brito?
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
He was released by Memphis in June.
He now plays for an independent team, the Grand Prairie Air Hogs, and appears to be under contract with them through next year.
how can he be projected to get even one at bat?
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
I don't understand that either.
They also have Hoffpauir and Duncan listed. Hoffpauir was claimed by Toronto and Duncan should be listed with the other free agents.
FREE JAVIER BRITO
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
If we don't sign Holliday than I like the idea of a platoon in LF
With Craig against Lefties but who would be against the righties?
Craig MLE vs Lefties is
.296/.327/.520/.847
CHONE is ever more positive than that. Especially his OBP
I would like DeJesus, but he seems a bit expensive for a platoon partner.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 6:22 PM EST up reply actions
He'll probably get a lot of ABs as a defensive replacement
and may get some starts in CF too (his OPS vs LHP is about .620-odd, which is better than Colby managed last year by a stretch). i suspect even if he’s a platoon piece he’ll stop top 500 PAs.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 8:24 AM EST up reply actions
Hank Blalock?
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
Vladimir Guerrero is a rhb
But hits right hand pitchers better. Not sure if he can field though.
Brian Giles had a horrible 09 with horrible BABIP to go with it. He has hit rhp excellent though for his career.
Eric Hinske
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 15, 2009 6:28 PM EST up reply actions
he seems like such a great buy low canidate
He was one of the best out fielders in baseball in 08
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 15, 2009 6:32 PM EST up reply actions
i like giles as well but the fact is we face RH pitcher alot more than left
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
so he plays against RHP
Craig vs LHP
Now what to do with all the leftover money
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 15, 2009 6:36 PM EST up reply actions
sign Harden and Bedard
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
i would be fine if we didn't really sign any big offensive weapons
and just reinvested the money into the starting rotation plus a reliever
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 15, 2009 6:40 PM EST up reply actions
+ Rafael Soriano
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
if he wasn't offered arbitration
Sure. But if he was than a cheap multi year contract probably wouldnt be that bad of an idea
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 15, 2009 6:44 PM EST up reply actions
there's so many closers available this year, it doesn't really matter who
Mike Gonzalez (32) – Type A
Kevin Gregg (32) – Type A
Fernando Rodney (33) – Type B
Rafael Soriano (30) – Type A
Jose Valverde (32) – Type A
Billy Wagner (38) – Type A
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
Type A can be bad
But we will have a lot of draft picks this year. So if any time you want to lose a draft pick it would be now
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 15, 2009 6:49 PM EST up reply actions
i doubt the braves offer arb to both of those guys
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
Valverde, Rodney, and Soriano
will be the only guys offered on that list. The Sox aren’t going to offer Wagner, the Braves won’t offer both Gonzalez and Soriano, and no way to the Cubs offer Gregg.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
just imagine this rotation
Carpenter
Wainwright
Bedard
Lohse
Harder
with spot starters Garcia/Boggs
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
Smoltz is better than Rich Harden
I’ll take Smoltz having a lower FIP and more innings than Harden in 2010.
Not afraid to nitpick
Convincing argument right there
I’ll bet quite a bit that Harden is an arm injury disaster waiting to happen. If he managed to eke out even 175 innings this year, he’d have hit a free agent jackpot of a contract. Instead he gets limited again to 140 innings and had to be shut down at the end of the year. That’s his contract year effort? Oh and he wasn’t even that good last year when he did pitch. I think you’d be buying more 2006 and 2007 from Harden than his 2008.
I’ll take Smoltz when he knows next year is his last year since he’s proved repeatedly he can pitch effectively through pain, is an extra year away from surgery, and was better than Harden rate wise last year anyway.
Not afraid to nitpick
i also would take Smoltz over Harden
When you factor in things like what they will get paid and length of contract. You could probably sign Smoltz + Bedard for a similar price of Harden.
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 15, 2009 8:55 PM EST up reply actions
Smoltz is 43, and has thrown about 100 innings the past 2 years
He’s also had major surgery. Even if you take last season’s performance, 3.87 FIP, at face value, you still have to account for aging effects in his performance. Simply put, there are very few pitchers who are productive this late in their careers. Smoltz was good, not great, last year, and got hit pretty hard at times.
Harden on the other hand, is going to be 29, and has thrown nearly 300 innings the past two years. During that span, he has put up a combined FIP of 3.63.
So Harden’s been better and more durable than Smoltz over the past 2 years. He’s also 15 years younger. Why exactly do you think Smoltz is the better option going forward?
by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 9:05 PM EST up reply actions
Smoltz is a man's man...
Harden is very fragile. Do you not internalize these WWL narratives?
MB for LF in 2010!
Smoltz will tone up in the off-season chopping wood topless
and wrestling bears. Harden will probably just get a manicure or two.
Really, there’s no contest.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 8:27 AM EST up reply actions
In a contract year...
Harden was mediocre and not durable in the least. It’s a red flag that you’re buying high after a contract year wonder because a player has extra motivation—-accordingly it is to me it’s a neon flashing sign when a guy has all the motivation in the world to try to address his only question mark of durability but instead once again proves he is fragile to the point that he can’t even make his last three starts. What’s he going to do when he doesn’t have that motivation? 2006 and 2007? That’s ignoring whether the injuries have left Harden’s performance level more 2009 than before.
The question after shoulder surgery is whether you can get your stuff back and Smoltz did. If anything that surgery can now be considered a good thing as he’s basically not going to shred his shoulder again after say 200 innings post-fix (or at the very least, is far less likely to blow out his shoulder than Harden IMO). He’s a full year out from that surgery this time, meaning his shoulder should be stronger than last year and that to me cancels out a lot of that aging curve.
Not afraid to nitpick
Joker's being quite rational
These walk away one liners seem to be your go to response and I don’t understand why.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
No, he's not
While I used quantitative terms, he used qualitative terms. That inherently takes the discussion from an objective and rational one to a subjective one.
I’ll try to adress his points, but I doubt this discussion will go anywhere.
Harden was mediocre and not durable in the least.
Harden had a 3.70 xFIP this year, compared to 3.64 the year before and 3.74 the year before that. I see no evidence of mediocrity. As to being durable, he pitched 141 innings – more than Smoltz.
It’s a red flag that you’re buying high after a contract year wonder because a player has extra motivation—-accordingly it is to me it’s a neon flashing sign when a guy has all the motivation in the world to try to address his only question mark of durability but instead once again proves he is fragile to the point that he can’t even make his last three starts.
How am I supposed to address that? That’s 100% conjecture on his part. He’s saying that Harden tried to pitch more innings so that he would be more attractive to teams. You could easily argue that he was being extra careful as he didn’t want to get seriously injured in a contract year. There’s no way to prove either side, so I don’t even see the point of mentioning it in the first place. All we know is that Harden has been relatively durable the past 2 years, at least compared to himself, and much more so than Smoltz.
The question after shoulder surgery is whether you can get your stuff back and Smoltz did.
1) Smoltz’ fastball dropped by 1/2 a MPH last year. 2) His swinging strike rate dropped by over 2%. Those indicate that his stuff did not fully return.
Besides, even if his stuff did return, how does that prove he’s back? He’ll be 43 – his stuff will most likely get worse next year, and it’s not like stuff is the only aspect of pitching.
If anything that surgery can now be considered a good thing as he’s basically not going to shred his shoulder again after say 200 innings post-fix (or at the very least, is far less likely to blow out his shoulder than Harden IMO)
Again, what is he basing this off? A 43 year old coming off of surgery is less likely to get injured going forward than a 29 year old coming off of surgery? Unless he is a doctor, or has reference to one, I don’t see how he can make that claim – it goes against all common sense.
It’s not like Joker was being particularly irrational, it’s that his entire argument is completely opinionated – without any evidence to support his opinions – and there is simply no point in even getting into a discussion like that.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 16, 2009 12:22 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
So therefore you make a smartass one liner?
Projecting/discussing future performance of subjective—-and relevant—-things like Smoltz’s shoulder and Harden’s contract year “wonder” aren’t covered 100% with quantitative arguments. Otherwise let’s just wait for CHONE or whatever and agree with that.
Except even then projecting IP is still completely subjective as that’s not going to have any way of knowing that Smoltz might actually have a theoretically healthyish shoulder for the first time since 2007 (207 innings) or maybe even earlier I guess.
The crux of my argument is that Smoltz had shown that with a semi-healthy shoulder, he’s durable. His shoulder is fixed-ish and this year he’s had more time to rehab after surgery. He knows it’s the last year of his career, so he’d probably gut through as much pain as possible and has demonstrated throughout his career he can be effective even pitching through pain.
I guess I forgot about Harden’s HR/FB. Maybe he wasn’t mediocre but he was still unhealthy when he most needed to be healthy. It’s the same guy who made a combined 13 starts in 2006 and 2007………without then getting surgery to get whatever was wrong actually fixed, so color me skeptical that Harden’s right arm is in good shape.
And you just addressed why you disagree without being “cute”. It’s much more fun that way. It’s a blog, we’re here to argue shit about baseball while trying to ignore the debate of going for it on 4th and 2.
Not afraid to nitpick
i think
smoltz will have a perfectly okay season. he was great in ‘07. this is only 3 years later. he’s still an injury risk. he’s gonna be 43 and he needs more than just a shoulder to pitch. i’m sure there’s plenty there to break down on him
rather have harden if he’s not too expensive
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Okay, maybe I was being a smartass, I'm sorry
But I really get into too many of these stupid arguments, in which no side has any proof either way. So there is a good chance that you are right in this argument given the lack of proof.
That being said, I’m fairly confident that Harden, at 29 years old, is more likely to be healthier and more productive going forward than the 43 year old Smoltz.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 16, 2009 1:55 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
here's what I got from this comment
there’s no way to tell who is right, but there’s a good chance you’re right
but I think I’m right
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
Yep
I would say that there is a 60% chance that I am right, 100% of the time.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 16, 2009 2:12 AM EST up reply actions
100 innings?
He wouldn’t even have to pitch that many if he’s named CLOSER!!!
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 16, 2009 6:20 PM EST up reply actions
Let me get this straight
you want Smoltz to close? You probably should’ve mentioned this before, you know.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 17, 2009 8:20 AM EST up reply actions
It just came to me
An epiphany if you will
C’mon, Mo & Tony! Do it!
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 17, 2009 3:13 PM EST up reply actions
harden shut himself down
isn’t that akin to bradley sitting himself in texas, if that scenario happened?
lou piniella said, to paraphrase, “He informed us he wouldn’t be pitching again this year. We thanked him for his contribution.”
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
The Cubs were out of it,
and if he were injured on their watch they would be on the hook for his salary and unable to offer arbitration to pick up the draft pick. Between those two they probably had about $2M riding on him making it to FA healthy
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
so harden was being altruistic
by shutting himself down? or are you saying the cubs front office called him in and shut him down without informing lou, and thus pinella’s surprise when harden came to him with the news?
also, what do you mean by “on the hook for his salary”?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
whilst it's not a great sign that he's a team player
I don’t think I’d be too bothered if we signed Harden for a year and he decided to declare himself unable to make his last 3 starts of the year once we were totally out of contention.
I can’t see him doing that going into the post-season, somehow.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 8:32 AM EST up reply actions
i agree
originally, though, i was contrasting how bradley doing the same thing (if it happened) seemed to be met with much more scorn, or making a comparison for those unaware of harden’s similar move
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Except I'd love to see us pick up Bradley,
so feh.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
i'd love to pick up longoria
still ain’t happening
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I'd love to pick up a winning lottery ticket.
K?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
i always hope for the best for people
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
giles nixed a trade
to bosox to stay in diego. sounds like he likes it out there. maybe he’d play for anaheim but can’t see him straying too far.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Yeah
also, he had an abysmal season so presumably he won’t get paid. The only reason I could see him moving to StL would be one last payday, which we won’t (and probably shouldn’t, given how badly he fell off a cliff last year) give him.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 8:33 AM EST up reply actions
last year
is the only year he’s gotten better than 500 PAs. i think we’d end up overpaying
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Nov 15, 2009 10:52 PM EST up reply actions
that's mostly because no-ones found a full time job for him
because he K’s like 30% of the time. He’s basically a less healthy, more positionally versatile version of Adam Dunn (ton of Ks, poor BA, lots of walks, lots of huge dingers).
He won’t come here because he’ll get a starting job at 1B/DH for an AL team and I can’t see us giving him a starting job, but for me, he ticks a lot of boxes:
1) LH power threat (we currently have none other than Rasmus).
2) Cheap power bat when we’d perhaps be best off spending our money on D-first guys (DeJesus, Cameron?) or pitchers
3) Useful PH option – certainly he’d be the most threatening stick off the bench in most situations
4) Can play 3B (not especially well), LF at a pinch, and 1B when Albert gets a day off.
The only issues I can see are his asking price (I seriously have no idea what he’ll take/get – or whether the Mariners want him back. I thought ~$5m would do it, but then the guy hit 31HR playing in a pitchers’ park last year) and the injury issue. Overall I’d probably pass but if he fell in our lap for about 1yr/5m I think he’d be a very nice addition.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 8:37 AM EST up reply actions
Except Dunn
has hit 35+ homers in every full season of his career and has a higher walk rate than Branyan does. Sure, his defense sucks, but you know what you’re getting with Dunn more than you do with Branyan.
I think he’s an excellent candidate as a LF/backup 3B/backup 1B who’s going to get 400+ PA’s over the course of the season. Hell, he could platoon with either Freese or Allen Craig in left and spell Pujols on his days off.
All that said, I don’t expect him to repeat last year’s numbers, I’d be very happy if he regressed towards the mean by 10% and we got him for one or two years at <$4M per year.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Yeah
I think I agree with that. I’m not sure he’ll even be as bad as Dunn, defensively.
Dunn is a better hitter, but I think it’s a fair comp (actually, Dunn Ks a fair bit less, but he’s about the nearest comp I could think of) – in terms of HR/PA Branyan’s actually nearer than you might think to Dunn’s power output. I can’t remember the exact figures but they’re v close.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 11:53 AM EST up reply actions
They're close if you look at just the last two years
but I’m not sold that he’s a threat to hit 40 HR in any season, whereas Dunn has done that (or close to it) for 6 consecutive years.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Career stats:
Branyan 17 PA per HR.
Dunn 17 PA per HR.
For comparison, the Mang hits a dinger every 16.6 PA.
REMARKABLY similar rates, in fact. Branyan probably isn’t a 40 HR threat because he doesn’t get enough playing time as he’s been prejudiced against due to his crazy high K rate, and because he’s injured quite a lot; I didn’t say he was as good as Dunn, obviously for these reasons and due to the fact that Dunn has an insane walkrate and doesn’t strike out as much (although Branyan’s a much better defender at 1B/3B than Dunn is, so if he plays a full season he’s probably more valuable). But when he does play, he beats the shit out of the ball on a regular basis.
I think if we’re going for a lefty bat I tend towards a liking for someone like Dejesus or Hinske who could be a more or less everyday LF against RHP (I don’t think Branyan’s knees are up to it), but if Branyan’s available for $5m or so, I would LOVE to have Branyan as corner backup/3B vs RHP (career .837 OPS vs RHP) and Hinske as LF vs RHP (career .804 OPS vs RHP), have Freese and Craig around to take a good number of ABs vs lefties, and spend the other $20m or so on pitching.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 17, 2009 8:28 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not disagreeing with you Monk
I simply don’t want to have everyone around here comparing Branyan and Dunn for the rest of the offseason, lol.
Although, I guess I’d rather here people getting excited about Branyan than pining for Dunn simply because of the defensive differences.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Hinske...
Can’t we just hire Bonds?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
What's wrong with Hinske?
He’ll be dirt cheap and is still a decent platoon piece. He’s an above-average fielder in an OF corner, and an above-average hitter of right-handed pitching.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 17, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions
I'd be down with Hinske,
I just like to mention Barry Bonds for no reason whenever possible.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
put him in your sig?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Barry Bonds is totally evil
Don’t you know that hiring Barry Bonds to play baseball for will retroactively “taint” our last three WS titles at the very least? Even though he had nothing to do with them?
Why, it might even invalidate or astericize all of our championships instantaneously. Hiring Barry Bonds is like crossing the streams in Ghostbusters, it’s just not worth the risk unless in extreme circumstances.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
*
;nbsp;
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
whoa, code fail.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I think a Bonds/Bradley/Braun OF is what we need
Our very own killer douchey B’s!
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 18, 2009 5:23 AM EST up reply actions
If I'm consistent with my Brett Myers policy
I’d probably have to say no to any wife-beaters on this team. I think I prefer Giles to Myers, though, for some reason.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 8:25 AM EST up reply actions
I think I have a solution
1. Trade for Uggla (include Freese in the package)
2. Sign Figgins to play third
3. Platoon Schumaker and Craig in left
4. SIGN HARDEN
Uggla's maybe a fit at 3B
I still think it’ll cost too much to get him, and he’s only going to be cheap-ish for one year until the arby raises start coming into effect. I don’t think he’s that valuable, tbh.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 17, 2009 8:30 AM EST up reply actions
updatey: Twins interested in Harden
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/twins-may-target-rich-harden.html
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 24, 2009 10:56 PM EST up reply actions
I would guess lots of teams are.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 25, 2009 6:05 AM EST up reply actions
if CHONE is close to being correct
I’d just as soon forget Holliday and stick Craig in LF full time. We’d be way ahead with this at league minimum. 278 /334 /452. They had him projected @ 15 HRs in 400 ABs.
craig and jay in left
lackey on the hill
better
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
Scott Podsednik ?
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
why not?
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
against leftys
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
i don't think he hit either side anymore
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 15, 2009 6:38 PM EST up reply actions
check out his '09 splits
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=podsesc01&year=2009&t=b#plato
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
.723 ops vs leftys is horrible for a LFer
i want .850 ops from our LF position
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 15, 2009 6:43 PM EST up reply actions
well then matt holliday is your guy
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
i really think craig is good enough to hit lefties for a .850 OPS
So you just need to find a platoon partner that can hit righties to a .850 OPS ie Giles
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 15, 2009 6:45 PM EST up reply actions
what about Aubrey Huff he can hit rightys also?
with a .842 career against RHP
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
i like him but
he has not played the of in a couple of years
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 15, 2009 6:53 PM EST up reply actions
his value has fell well within reach of a cheap one year stint contract
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
yeah but I really don't think he can play the field
like, at all. I can’t see any way he’d be better than Adam Dunn in LF, so, basically replacement-level when you take his glove into account.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 8:39 AM EST up reply actions
2009 - .716
2008 – .989
2007 – .778
2006 – .858
We could do worse. Although, as Flim pointed out, he hasn’t played OF since 2006. And last year his OPS against RHP was the lowest of his career since 2001.
buy low candidate?
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
Perhaps,
but only if he’s capable of playing 100+ games in left field, which is improbable. I think I’d rather have Craig start against RHP.
if adam dunn can play LF so can Huff
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
He can't!
He was a below average player this year just because of his defense!
by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 7:12 PM EST up reply actions
no joke
He was a negative 46 runs on defense. That is beyond horrible. Cost himself 2 wins by not being a DH
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 15, 2009 7:16 PM EST up reply actions
still huff would be no worse than a -8 UZR IMO
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
that's probably better
than his career average and he’s going to be 4 years removed from playing the OF. he’s a DH
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Nov 15, 2009 10:56 PM EST up reply actions
dejesus por favor
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Nov 15, 2009 10:53 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 8:39 AM EST up reply actions
i really think craig is a good hitter
the few times i saw him he wasn’t afraid to take two strikes if they weren’t his pitch – seemed confident that he could put wood on the ball when warranted.
maybe the FO actually resisted the urge to call him up because they think highly of his potential for long-term contributions and really did think it would be an injustice (i think TLR used that term)?? the Free Allan Craig campaign is the conventional wisdom around here, but could we have misread the org’s intentions??
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
you do know he bats lefty though, right?
OPS over .950 leading off 1st inning – just found that interesting
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Huff or Podsednik?
Pods has only got a .343 lifetime OBP vs RHP, and no power at all. I don’t think he’s a very good platoon candidate, to be honest, and he’s not a good base stealer anymore, and he’s only about average in CF (though I guess he wouldn’t be playing there because of Colby). I guess if we spend all our $ on other positions he’d be a useful 4th OF for $1m or so.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 18, 2009 5:35 AM EST up reply actions
pods
just thought it odd to point out his OPS vs. lefties
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
for a LHB he's actually not got much of a split either
I see him as more of a fading everyday player who should now be a 4th OF, rather than a platoon piece. He’s a bit below average vs RHP and a little worse than that vs LHP.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 18, 2009 7:55 AM EST up reply actions
backup catcher/third baseman brandon inge(-9)
i’m just saying
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
he is a nice guy
just read a story about him building a fort with this kid that was about to die of cancer
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 15, 2009 6:38 PM EST up reply actions
don't we already have a backup catcher/thirdbaseman
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 15, 2009 6:48 PM EST up reply actions
? freese ?
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
Albert's OBP at .404?
A little low, no? He hasn’t had such a low OBP since 2001 and 2002. And the last three years were .429, .462, and .443. And they have him with only 70 BBs. Sheesh.
Now with extra feisty!
the avg. they gave him was bad enough
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
REGRESSION
Although, I’ll agree that with Pujols, there should probably be less regression.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 7:08 PM EST up reply actions
Regression to the worst two seasons?
I thought it was regression to the mean.
Now with extra feisty!
I would be ok if it projected to the mean then took off 3-6% but this is sort of ridiculous
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
Regression to the mean
Not HIS mean, the major league mean. That is always the right approach.
However, for someone like Pujols, the true mean of players like him is probably a lot higher, given his height, weight, power, eye, etc. So the regression might be too much in this case. I’d have to ask Rally how he regresses players.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 7:24 PM EST up reply actions
Ah, I was mixed up.
I still bristle at these projections for Albert. Everyone else looks about right.
Now with extra feisty!
If Pujols only gets 70BB
we might as well give up on this year because it means his elbow’s going to explode for the rest of the season in early August….
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 8:41 AM EST up reply actions
that number
suggests he will be pitched to more – why? do the projections see protection on the way, or apu losing his eye, or what?
also, when projecting free agents, is there a theoretical park they play in? wouldn’t it matter if holliday played at citi as opposed to fenway? and are non-free agents projected using their current parks, or is every batter projected using one theoretical neutral park – how does it work (and wouldn’t, for example, utley’s rbi’s be somewhat dependent on what kind of year rollins/victorino have getting on base)?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I think it's because projections are regressed to the league average
because Albert walks WAY more than the league average, just a little bit of regression will really kill his walkrate. That’s what I’m guessing anyhow. I don’t think it’s based on anything player-specific, so for a superman like Pujols, I’d take it with a healthy ton of salt.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 17, 2009 8:31 AM EST up reply actions
I hate to say this
Because I love Triple-A mashers as much as the next guy, but I think CHONE overrates hitters who had above average, but not great, lines at Triple-A. It might just be because he doesn’t apply aging penalties enough, but I’m not sure.
craig because of age
shelly is 31
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
I though CHONE was considered the best at projecting young players
I can’t remember that article though (I think it was THT).
At any rate, I’ve read plenty of discussions about MLE’s and minor league performances at Tango’s blog, and Rally seems to place a lot of importance in properly projecting minor leaguers.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 7:10 PM EST up reply actions
i always use CHONE for hitters and PECOTA for pitchers
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 15, 2009 7:11 PM EST up reply actions
you can say that again
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Nov 15, 2009 7:45 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Does anyone know if Rally includes some kind of a
level repeating penalty. Jarrett Hoffpauir != league average MLB hitter
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
good question
when i repeated third grade it was much easier. in fact, i kicked ass. based on that i was projected to ace fourth grade, but i ended up repeating that as well. of course, i kicked ass, so…
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
maybe that's why Albert's projection isn't very good?
He really should’ve been moved up a level a couple of years ago, IMO. We’re just letting him stagnate in St Louis.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 8:43 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
+1 but we need to sign nady then
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
I wouldn't
Vasquez is only signed for 1 more year, and is due for massive regression from last year. He’s probably 5 WAR, but Ludwick is at least 3 WAR, is signed for longer, and will be harder to fill in FA.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 7:11 PM EST up reply actions
i was just thinking since Braves need to trade a pitcher
Him, Asian Guy, or Derek Lowe. I still like Lowe just not his contract.
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 15, 2009 7:17 PM EST up reply actions
yes, asian guy is the man!!!
is there any big Japanese FA this year?
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
and not matsui
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
There's a 30 year-old closer who is reputedly very good but not quite on the level of Kawakami/Dice-K
I think he’ll probably want 2-3 years minimum, though, so I’d reckon we’d be better off just going with a known quantity.
I think the Braves may actually move Kawakami to a set-up role. They’re not retaining Gonzalez and Soriano, I don’t think, so may move some of their starting surplus to the pen. Kawakami’s definitely the odd-man out, anyhow. Lowe, Hudson and Jurrjens are too good to put in the pen, Vasquez is basically their ace, and obviously Hanson’s earnt his spot and they won’t want to mess with his development.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 8:47 AM EST up reply actions
I know
Kris Medlen, who would be about our #4 (and probably Baltimore or Milwaukee’s #2) is their #7 (!!!) at the moment!
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 8:45 AM EST up reply actions
If we sign Kearns to replace Lud,
I’d be down for something like this.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I don't think Kearns is anything other than a 4th OF/platoon option these days
I would very much not be OK with giving him a full time role. I’d rather just take my chances with Allen Craig.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 8:48 AM EST up reply actions
+1
Agree completely but TLR’s head would explode if he were asked to open with the season with Freese at 3B and Craig in LF. This would be my preference given the alternatives but we can safely say this will not happen.
What if he could be had on a minor league deal?
He’s been pretty putrid the last couple of years. If Holliday doesn’t return, I think we could offer him a minor league deal and tell him that he’ll have a chance to win the LF or RF job in spring training with his play. Considering all the crap teams he’s played for, he might like a shot to win a job for a winner for the first time in his career.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
yes that'd be fine
he’s also a RH CF option if clobat randall continues to suck.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 23, 2009 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
His CAR (cancer above replacement) is off the charts!
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
What about some buy low candidates that won't cripple the mlb team,
I’m looking at guys like Brandon Wood or Andy Sonnistine. All we do is rave about Boog’s defensive ability and Schumacher’s ability to hit 300, but it is one of the most obvious places to improve the pop on this team. If Greene isn’t our man, then I think giving at bats to someone like Brandon Wood at short, second, and third would be very beneficial.
What do you mean what?
With all due respect, I like the thought of having Wood better than I do giving Giles 400+ at bats.
I am confused by your wording
All we do is rave about Boog’s defensive ability and Schumacher’s ability to hit 300, but it is one of the most obvious places to improve the pop on this team.
Are you saying that the MIF is one of the most obvious places to improve the team?
by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
That's the gist I got from sleeple's comment
I.E. Let’s not get too attached to Bood and Shu just because they’ve proven adequate/good. Although I’d be more interested in upgrading at 2B than SS because Boog’s defense is just so extra tasty crispy.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I think Skip and Boog are both 1-2 WAR players making nothing
We could certainly due to upgrade in other places more like the starting rotation, 3rd base and left field.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 16, 2009 12:08 AM EST up reply actions
As long as we keep our options open
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
What I am saying is,
In the long run, do you think that we will end up ponying up for Holliday? Yeah, me neither. So where does that leave us? We need some minor moves like Wood to upgrade the team without detriment to the future [read: handing out big contracts, etc.]
Right, but where does Wood play?
He’s unproven, and likely not much better than Skip or Ryan right now. He’ll cost a lot due to his lofty prospect status, and may or may not actually be a good player. I wouldn’t mind Wood, but there are better places that we can upgrade in.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 16, 2009 12:38 AM EST up reply actions
His price is up for debate.
Sean Rodriguez passed him up on the middle infield depth chart and it seems that he is always the one player the Angels never want to give an extended cup of coffee to. I am with you when you say that their are much better places to upgrade, but the chance that these upgrades happen are, in my opinion, very slim. Holliday seems destined to leave, Mo seems hellbent on giving the job to Freese, and I dread any other free agent choice in left field due to length of contract and/or general lack of significant improvement.
And left field actually has a few options
Cameron, Damon, Byrd and DeJesus are all above average, available, likely on short deals, and will be cheap.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 16, 2009 12:51 AM EST up reply actions
damon
will cost a first rounder, is pretty bad at playing defense and will probably not be cheap
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
only if he's offered arb, right?
not saying he won’t be, and i don’t want him anyway, except as plan f,
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I think Damon could be had on a 1yr/10m deal
of the Cameron ilk. 2 years at the most (and he’s arguably worth that as he’s been very durable). His defense seems really under-rated to me – yeah, he’s an appalling CF, but he’s probably still above average (or about average) in LF. Crappy arm but I think his D gets a lot of bad press for that, and left-fielders don’t have to make a lot of difficult throws compared to CF and RF (also, arm strength isn’t really a very important component of defense according to UZR and, IMO, common sense).
I think you’re right that they’ll probably offer arby, though, so I wouldn’t want him.
The only possible argument might be that if we get Damon it would smooth the way to offering a deal to Wagner or Soriano or someone if they get offered arby as the type-A penalties are lessened.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 8:52 AM EST up reply actions
I think Damon
would be ok for a 1 year deal, but the arby thing could be enough of a reason to steer clear.
yeah I'd be fine with it if he's not offered arby
there are better options but he’s still a durable 3 win player in LF who gets on base at a good clip. $10m for that would be fine, so long as it doesn’t cost any draft picks.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 17, 2009 8:34 AM EST up reply actions
Also,
B. Wood is also making nothing and can play all of the infield positions (I believe he has the least experience at 2nd). Lets say we give Freese the starting job. If he fails, who is the insurance plan? We are dangerously thin in depth at third after we traded the Walrus and relegated Allen Craig to LF. On top of that, I do not feel comfortable with Lugo, T. Greene, or Thurston getting extended playing time at 3rd because Freese isn’t cutting it. I would feel much more comfortable with someone like B. Wood as the new 3rd base insurance plan.
I see your point
I just think that we could upgrade more in different places. If we could get Wood for jackshit, then I would love him. However, he would likely cost a lot in terms of prospects – at least Garcia.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 16, 2009 12:39 AM EST up reply actions
I agree then, tell'em to go to hell.
My logic is that graduating talent (Freese, Craig) makes us very think at 3rd and in general, the outfield.
don't forget
about mather. he was the early favorite for the ‘09 job until his wrist. ’course the wrist is still a question. all i’m saying is, he is in the equation
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
no, no he's not
he didn’t play third when he was sent down, so I’m concluding that he was not a factor there anymore.
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
maybe
because they were prepping freese? mo seemed to come pretty quickly to the conclusion that 3b was freese’ job in ’10
either way, just because the org views him more as an OF than a 3B, doesn’t mean they won’t jump at the chance of switching him back if he’s mashing and freese and craig are sucking it up
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
they moved craig to LF when Freese was still hurt
and he was killing the ball.
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
and craig
is bad at 3b. mather isn’t bad at 3b
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
proof?
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
general consensus among scouts
and i’ve seen them play at least a little
unless you want me to look up some small sample sizes of bad defensive metrics for milb and spring training
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
well I'll have to take your word
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
he was a SS
when we drafted him.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I dunno
from what I’ve heard Mather isn’t great there, and has limited experience. Also, although the scouting isn’t too hot on Craig, TZR, which is at least a respected metric, pegged him as about average at 3B in the minors (which probably translates to slightly below average in the majors – maybe DeRosa standard or so), which sounds about right to me.
From a personal opinion standpoint, I have a real hard time believing Mather will be anywhere near that good, let alone better…
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 8:57 AM EST up reply actions
what about tatis
for a year at 1.5? can backup anywhere in IF or OF, but specifically 3B and LF. if something went horribly wrong at either position he could tread water as a starter there until we could make a move. and then i might find out where he disappeared to for those lost years, and why. anybody know?
completely nutty, but gagne pitched in an independent league this year as a starter – averaged just slightly over 6 innings per start. now, he didn’t strike people out like one would think/hope, and his listed ERA wasn’t pretty (believe it was about 4,5), but he’d be amenable to a minor league contract. what about bringing him in specifically to work with motte on a pitch or two (that 78 mph knuckle curve, for one), with the opportunity to begin in AAA and get a fair shot at making it back to the show. it wouldn’t cost anything.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I wonder if Gagne might get a guaranteed $1m somewhere
but I would be very happy to give him a chance.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 8:54 AM EST up reply actions
The wierd thing with Gagne
is, injury aside, I can’t work out why he fell off a cliff so dramatically.
He pitched in 2007 and was actually REALLY GOOD for the Rangers, then fell apart as soon as he went to Boston. His velocity took a nosedive I suppose, but that good spell in 2007 (3.30 FIP) makes me wonder if there’s not something left in the tank. I wonder if we can’t just put a lot of 2008 down to niggling injuries?
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 9:00 AM EST up reply actions
Ideally
I’d like a bench bat/utility guy/insurance policy who can play at 3B. I share your reticence on Freese – good glove but I wonder if his bat is going to do much at MLB level. I’m fine with giving him the chance but I’d like an insurance option.
That’s why I’d be keen on getting Glaus or Branyan on a cheap 1-year deal, perhaps with incentives.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 8:54 AM EST up reply actions
Oh, sorry about that.....
Yes. Specifically, the bench/spot starter in the middle infield. As for the ideal fit, think Derosa, but younger and without the injury concern.
not the worst suggestion
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
Angels should of traded him awhile ago
They have really screwed up his value
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 15, 2009 9:03 PM EST up reply actions
+
It is really impossible to get a read on Brandon Wood’s value to the Angels. With Aybar and Izturis, they seem to be pretty content with their options at shortstop. Now, if they can’t find a third basemen, then Wood becomes much more valuable to them but overall, they have been really souring on him as a prospect for sometime now.
Maybe they could get Anthony Reyes for him?
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 9:01 AM EST up reply actions
Ha, I didn't want to be too bias....
But I have also been harping on this bandwagon for quite some time.
Same here
I’m afraid he’s going to be one of those guys we read about tomorrow getting dealt from some stiff, like oh, I don’t know, VICTOR ZAMBRANO.
If so, I’ll be pissed. I’m still sore that the front office never got on the Ben Zobrist bandwagon back when he was buried beneath Jason Bartlett and Reid Brignac.
I wouldn't go that far,
You never know until you ask; I really can’t get a read on how much B. Wood would cost.
is CHONE in any way related to Chone Figgins?
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 15, 2009 8:55 PM EST reply actions
i don't think he related
But he is an Angels fan
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 15, 2009 8:56 PM EST up reply actions
lol
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 15, 2009 9:30 PM EST up reply actions
i swear to crap
this was a front page post 5 minutes ago
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
no it wasnt
Do you have a mac? that might explain it
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 15, 2009 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
It's been a main page post all day for me.
I have a Mac but since I know nothing about computers I don’t know why that would make a difference. This has never happened before.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Nov 15, 2009 10:58 PM EST up reply actions
It was a fanpost that I bumped to the front page
I then un-bumped it when it was rec’d.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 10:59 PM EST up reply actions
oh man
i had the whole mac angle working
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 15, 2009 11:00 PM EST up reply actions
That's what I figured happened.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Nov 15, 2009 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
If this were Facebook I would "like" that.
And since you don’t have Facebook that is what you do when you like someone’s comment. You click a little thumbs up sign to like something.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Nov 16, 2009 12:37 AM EST up reply actions
just start using this image when you want to like a comment
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
we rec stuff here, so you could have done that
i’m glad you approve, at least i did one good thing today
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
Yes but then you don't know.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Nov 16, 2009 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
you can see rec's
but i know what you mean, you generally don’t know who rec’s you unless they tell you
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
I don't even know who you are anymore!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
i can still drink
i am just sick of losing control. i’m too old for that crap
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
Question: Would anyone be towards signing jose molina as our back-up catcher?
Though I’m not quite sure what he would ask, but always having a molina catching makes me smile a little inside.
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
last season
he has a .560 ops
.609 lifetime
i yadi misses any significant amount of time, we’re screwed
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Even if yadi is hurt, he'll outperform yadi of '06
and who do we have that can really replace yadi anyways, Larue?, Anderson, Pagz?
I would rather J. Molina get the playing time.
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
yadi of '06
.595 ops. that was really bad. but not as bad as jose’s ’09
anderson is a decent option. give him a look in spring. there are plenty of cheap free agent catchers that can hit a little. backup catcher also needs to be able to pinch hit.
and holy shittingly enough, jose is the slowest of all the molinas. not only slower than yadi (an obviously impressive feat) but also slower than benjie. i think maybe he just lays on his side and rolls down the basepaths.
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Nov 16, 2009 1:30 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
not going to lie that made me laugh
the pinch hitting argument doesn’t hold up though. How many times did tony let Larue pinch hit instead of handing the bat off to Dickkkkkkkk ankkkkkkiel? zilch, zero,
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
i didn't say
the backup catcher needs to be your biggest bench weapon. (and for the record, i would have pinch hit ankiel before larue every time). but he will need to be used as a pinch hitter occasionally. jose molina is not a good hitter. also in games just where he plays in general he has to take PAs. i want a catcher who can hit a little
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
if we get a minor league back-up catcher I want steven hill before bryan anderson
it’s just the raw power he has that I like
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
he's currently playing in AA
and an .803 ops in AA for a guy who will be 25 on opening day doesn’t seem that intriguing to me
i don’t bryan anderson will be the answer, though. free agent. or larue
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
thanks for ruining one of my pet peeve prospects
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
i didn't understand either
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
also, I think Hill is probably defensively awful
we’d be better with Anderson, who is at least a full-time catcher.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 9:04 AM EST up reply actions
I want Holliday but....
plan B should be
1. Resign Glaus (not really plan b i think we should resign him anyway) to a incentive laden 1-2 year deal. People forget he was rock solid for us in 2008, and is it really that big of a stretch that he could return to form? Maybe i am too optimistic on him but even if he falters we have Freese backing him up. Is 270 AVG 360 OBP 20 HR 80 RBI too optimistic? If it works out we have a solid righthander to come off the bench and spell Glaus to keep him healthy.
2. Trade for David Dejesus (if hes even available) KC needs cheap young hitters to build around am I right? Maybe Bryan Anderson can be packaged for him as we have some up an coming catching prospects (Cutler, Stock). Does a Dejesus, Craig platoon sound good to anyone?
3. Sign Billy Wagner (or another top flight reliever). He wants to close right? he looked good in limited action this year, and he wants to close. Well give him the closing job, Franklin can have the 8th, and we can mix and match for the other innings. If we have enough money left over maybe we could sign another reliever. I cant forget how the dodgers set us up in the divisional series. If they had a lead in the 7th inning this year, they almost always won. Why not try that formula especially if we have the cash.
4. Sign a risk (IE Ben sheets, Erick Bedard). Personally I love Bedard (lefty) but the guy is incredibly fragile. Ben Sheets SHOULD be healthy as he took the whole year off… I would be willing to bet the guy pitches over 170 innings this year. Harden a great option too if he can be had without breaking the bank. Anyone of those guys is a difference maker. If they stay healthy (a big if) they can be a tremendous asset and a difference maker, and I think thats worth the risk.
5. MO magic!! Maybe he can swing a deal no one sees coming (Hanley Ramirez, Curtis Granderson, Miguel Cabrera???) and get a big bat if we dont get Holliday. I highly doubt this happens and im not implying i even want it…but its something to think about. Miguel Cabrera is a good friend of Alberts right? Hes probaly a defensive liability wherever he plays, hes got a massive contract (6 years, 126 million left)…BUT he has played third and could probaly play left, and he has had one of the most consistent bats in the league for the last 5-6 years. Its not ideal but he solves the IMPACT BAT problem at least.
until the last week of the season
i had cabrera on a very short list of best hitters in baseball, and one of the top 20 cornerstone players to build a team around. but that stunt he pulled soured me to him in a big way. i don’t think he’s any sort of serious option, but just wanted to do a little commentary.
btw, didn’t know he was a friend of apu’s.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Cabrera's contract is really bad IMO
he’s not worth it – they’d have to salary dump him and eat a chunk of it before I’d be remotely interested. It’s an albatross that’ll be a serious problem if he continues to gain weight as he ages. He can play the field now but for how much longer?
Also, he’s a 1B/DH. Guy CANNOT play 3rd base anymore, seriously. It’s two years and probably about 10 inches of waist since he last played 3B, and he was one of the worst in the NL then. To think he could play LF now (what is he, like 250lbs?) is laughable.
I pretty much like everything else. I’d love to swing a deal for Granderson, I think Glaus is a nice option if he’ll sign for 1yr/$5m+incentives. I think a lot of folks here are really liking the advantages that a DeJesus/Craig platoon in LF would have.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 9:10 AM EST up reply actions
I tend to agree
about Cabrera…its to bad I always thought he would look good in a Cardinals uniform….But our areas of need its hard to see a fit. As far as Albert Being friends with Cabrera it might be a stretch to call them friends. I know they are good aquantences and they have said they would love to play together someday.
by TheHolyDiver19 on Nov 16, 2009 10:28 AM EST reply actions
Don't get me wrong, he is an amazing hitter, among the very best
just his lack of a position and the fact he’s getting PAID like an amazing hitter that make him a bit of a liability in my eyes, and he’s clearly let his fitness deteriorate as he’s got older.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
you truly are an evil frog.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
i've been trying to tell you all
but do you listen? nooooooooooo you reeeeaaaaaaaalllllyyyy underestimate his evilness
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
the brewers are probably clearing
payroll to sign Pineiro.
Holliday might not be as expensive as you think...
There is a lot of news coming out that (to me at least) suggests that the price tag on Holliday might not be that overwhelming. Buster Olney is reporting (via twitter) that the Yankees are “not interested in signing Holliday. They’ll talk to Boras to keep other bidders honest, but corner outfield not a priority for them”. Furthermore, the Red Sox only seem to be a legitimate Holliday threat if they fail to sign Jason Bay. Even without Bay, the Red Sox seem more intent in acquiring Adrian Gonzalez from SD than ponying up for Holliday.
With those two (seemingly) out of the equation that (more or less) leaves the Mets, Angles, and Cardinals as possible destinations for Holliday. It has been speculated that the Mets will not have the payroll flexibility to offer Holliday the market rate. Which, if true, would basically leave the Cardinals and the Angels as potential suitors for Matt.
Perhaps this is all just a bit of wishful thinking, and there are quite a few “ifs” in this scenario (i.e. if Boston re-signs Bay) but the market for Holliday could very well shape up to favor the Cards.
by BigMac545 on Nov 16, 2009 1:50 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I'm pretty sure we'll see him returning
call it a hunch, call it what you will.
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 16, 2009 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
seems a bit too much of worrying about holliday
because of what we gave up
that’s water under bridge at this point and it will always pale in comparison to what the braves gave up for tex, who they could not win with or hold on to.
my concern is the holliday fixation, which i don’t share, will lead to a poorly executed plan B
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
"poorly executed plan B"
Yup. That’s really what scares me too, not so much the possibility of missing out on Holliday itself. Which is why talk of our interesting in Nady is a little worrisome to me.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I'm just scared this will drive him into deep-reach range
and we give him something like a 6 year, $110m deal. That’s not a nightmare scenario, but it will be pretty hard for us to gain a lot of surplus value from a deal like that if he ages like his closest comps. I’m going to do a fanpost about it soon.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 17, 2009 8:37 AM EST up reply actions
i repeat myself, but
matty has 34-35 y.o. dh written all over that lego body of his
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
I think I saw
Something yesterday that said angels weren’t interested in Holliday. Can’t remember the source though:(
Trade option that hasn't been discussed...
Dave Cameron over at FanGraphs published this little tidbit on Dan Uggla last week, essentially saying that he probably isn’t worth as much this year in trade as he was last year at this time, due to his age, projected arbitration award, and the fact that he’ll probably get moved off of second base. Considering that Chris Coghlan (your newly minted 2009 ROY winner) can come in and play 3B for the Marlins they might be looking to deal him just so they don’t have to pay him.
Rumors also have it that the Marlins are looking to move Cody Ross, who can play all three OF positions and is an above average corner outfielder by UZR.
What I would propose here is a 4 for 2 swap, with us sending Skip, Ottavino, and two other low level prospects to the Marlins for Ross and Uggla. Ross could be our starting LF next year and Uggla could either start at 2B or 3B, where he might be better defensively. I would rather put him at 2B and hope Freese is the real deal, or go out and sign someone like Adrian Beltre since we won’t be taking on a ton of salary. Uggla will have 2 more cost controlled seasons left and Ross will have three, making this a pretty good swap for us overall.
Keep in mind, I don’t think either of them has a ton of value at this point. I’m pretty sure that that Marlins would covet Ottavino as he’s the only real hard throwing start in our minor leagues and they love those type of pitchers and Skip gives them a guy who can start at second base next season in place of Uggla while leading off in front of Coghlan and Hanley. It would all depend on who the low-level prospects are, but I don’t think this is completely underselling the market for these two players.
The only question for the Cardinals would be finding a leadoff hitter if we trade Skip. Uggla would be a fine #2 hitter in front of Albert (Career .344 OBP + power), but we really don’t have anyone who could then lead off, unless you put Colby up at the top of the order, which would probably be the best route to go. Either way, we add two above average hitters that can play at least league average defense to our lineup and only give up one MLB regular to do it.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
dude
that would be pretty kickass
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 16, 2009 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
i think you have to substitute descalso or freese for skippy in your scenario.
the marlins are not going to want a player already starting his first arb-eligible year.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
agree, skippy is not moving
the fish could be interested in hamilton and descalso for uggly, and i’d give that serious consideration
don’t know about ross, though maybin may make him expendable in center, even with hermida moving on
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
I'm ok with sending Freese in this scenario
I’m less ok with sending Descalso. I would guess that they’d want Freese more as well.
Skip really isn’t going to get that expensive in arbitration, so it would something I think they’d be amenable to.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
cantu does not equal a 3rd baseman
so, yes, freeze might interest them, but uggly would have to go to 3rd and maybe a little left
anyone recall how santa’s outfield debut went in memphis?
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
Why would they want Skip to play 2B
When one of the points of trading Uggla is opening 2B for Coghlan?
Coghlan is a 3B/LF
There’s been rumors about him moving to second, but that’s what they are, rumors. He played 3B in college and in the minors and outfield last year.
They are moving Uggla because he’s going to make $9M+ next season and they don’t want to pay it. It’s not to “open up” the second base spot for Coghlan — if that was the case, they’d just move Uggla to 3B and call it good.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Second base is easy
Anyone can play it
/old VEB memes
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 17, 2009 3:15 PM EST up reply actions
Why would they want Skip? He's going to start getting more expensive soon too
And I just don’t think Ottavino has much value (also, we’d be trading pretty low on him IMO).
I think this deal is ridiculously biased in our favour. I know Florida hate to pay anybody any $, but I just can’t see them dumping two 3-4 WAR players who aren’t (yet) mega expensive for a load of complete drek.
I’d like Ross (I’m luke-warm on Uggla, who I think is probably still a bit over-valued).
I take your point that both might be a bit under-valued in trade discussions but I don’t think they’ll be THAT under-valued.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 17, 2009 8:43 AM EST up reply actions
It is biased in our favor
The reason being is that I think the Marlins are in a bind:
- There aren’t many teams willing to take on payroll AND give up talent to do so.
- There are VERY few teams willing to trade for two guys who are entering arbitration.
- They really don’t want to pay either of these guys because they have low cost substitutes ready to step in for them at their respective positions.
- The Marlins, as an organization, covet pitchers like Ottavino, so I think he has more value to them than he does to a lot of other teams.
Let’s substitute Freese in for Skip, who I’d be willing to part with instead because Uggla would move to third base for the Cardinals anyway. That’s a pretty good deal if you’re Florida — you have Maybin coming up to play CF for you and Coglan moves to second base while Freese starts at 3B. You can then either bring someone up to play corner outfield or sign a low cost option (Andruw Jones maybe?) to do the same thing. Remember, they want to cut payroll first and be competitive second — I think this deal does that for them.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Oh no doubt it does
I just wonder if they can’t get a bit more talent from somebody else for these two. Obviously if this is a trade we can swing, it’d be a great move for us.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 17, 2009 10:46 AM EST up reply actions
Could be...
it’s just that there are so few teams willing to take on payroll and so few teams with those two particular holes.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
What would it take to get Nolasco?
He’s the fish I’m most interested in.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
That's tough to say
He’s due a pretty big raise in arbitration this season, but he’ll be making less than Uggla would. Josh Johnson is also due a good size raise as well, though its rumored that they are looking to sign him long term this offseason, which would effectively make you think that they’re looking at unloading Nolasco, especially since they have arms ready at AAA to come and step in to them.
I’m also going to assume that there are going to be more teams interested in Nolasco — more controlled seasons, starting pitcher (which everyone needs), smaller arb award than Uggla, so I’m guessing the asking price is going to be higher and I’m not sure that we have the scratch to make a play for him in terms of minor league talent. I think they’d be just fine with hanging on to Ricky for another year if they can’t get a decent return for him.
I don’t think they’d take less than Daryl Jones and another good prospect, and I’m not sure we’d want to give that up.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
jones in a heartbeat
i’d rather the second not be descalso, but if that’s the deal, hell yeah here too. one question: is this nolasco’s first arb year?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
This isn't Nolasco's first arb year (he was a super two),
but he should still be pretty cheap in arb 2 thanks to his unlucky ERA.
Also, Jones plus would be an excellent trade, IMO. Even Jones plus Descalso would be a win for us considering we’d be getting somewhere around $30M (correct my numbers if they’re wrong) in value for players who are probably worth less than half that.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
rick-dick returns home to south florida?
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
MILF(A)s
Minor league free agents have been published here. Cards are set to lose their AAA loogy pair, Ostlund and Manning, plus a few other scrubs.
There are a few that you feel bad for- Josh Barfield is still the definition of a player who can’t draw a walk, Chris Capuano is one of that 5-10% who fail to recover from TJ.
Can Brandon Yarbrough play LF?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
depends what you mean. memphis put him out there. i don't think that it's been pretty.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
At least one of our MiLFAs I've never heard of!
Other thoughts:
1) Is Mark Bellhorn still alive?!
2) There aren’t too many interesting names there, especially now we have 2 LOOGYs (I’d have been interested in maybe giving Casey Fossum a go otherwise).
3) Is John Gall still alive?!
4) I’d be willing to give Dallas McPherson a minor league deal
5) Yarbrough and McLane are head-scratchers. McLane will never amount to much but as far as I can see we’ll be short of arms at AAA this year, so he might’ve been worth hanging onto.
6) OF Norris Hopper has a .367 OBP (admittedly looks BABIP-driven) and an unbelievable OF UZR in a little over one full season of MLB action (spread over 3 actual years). He was also above average (2.2 WAR) in 2007. He looks a much better right-handed CF backup than Shane Robinson. We should definitely grab him.
7) I’d like to pick up Charlie Zink (Boston) and stash him in AAA. Not that I think he’ll amount to much, but he’s a knuckleballer, and it’d be kinda cool to have one of those. Also, he’s only 30 and knucklers are traditionally late bloomers (he did manage a 3.99 FIP in AAA in 2008, before turning to shit last year).
8) Before anyone suggests picking him up, don’t bother – Chad Cordero is done. Although I guess a try out couldn’t hurt anyone (except Cordero, whose arm will probably fall off after a couple of 75mph fastballs).
9) Winston Abreu might be 32, and have only pitched a handful (44.1) of crap MLB innings, but his recent AAA stats are eye-popping – averaging well over 4 K/BB, about 13 K/9, a FIP of about 2, in the last three years. I wonder if he’s not worth a bit of a go-around at AAA and see what he can do if we have a crisis. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
10) Ryan Freel was reasonable, once, and isn’t that old. I suspect we’d be better with Tyler Greene as an infield backup, though.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 17, 2009 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
shane costa has some interesting numbers against RHP. if he could manage to walk in the big leagues, he could
turn into an interesting corner outfield platoon partner.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
or how about Dee Brown from the Arizona org? .998 OPS v. RHP.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
errata - for Arizona read LA Dodgers.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
i respectfully suggest
separating MiL from FA…
talk about misread….
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Mets intriiiiiiiggggueeed by Joel's tilde
it’s like three memes for the price of one
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Actually
that would be the best place he could go on the FA market. Citi suppresses homers as good or better than Busch III does, they have a pretty decent infield when everyone’s healthy, and he’s sure to get paid by the Mets because they throw money at anything that has been proven to pitch a baseball.
I feel like we’ll just be snickering about them giving him 4Y$41M, like we gave Lohse last year, when he reverts to Pinata form from 2008.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
anybody think the mets become the brewers and take both pineiro and looper?
those guys really need a new rotation.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
no
piniero and marquis – called it about a month ago, and if it happens i’m about 1-25, but i walk alot.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I would sign Marquis
but only on a one year deal — he’s the Ellis Burks of pitchers: Awesome when he needs to earn a paycheck, shitty otherwise.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
yeah he's uber unpopular there
still gets booed I think.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 18, 2009 5:41 AM EST up reply actions
they have a pretty decent infield when everyone’s healthy
yeah, that’s the thing. color me skeptical.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Wright and Castillo were butchers with the glove this year
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 17, 2009 6:08 PM EST up reply actions
and 1B a question mark
as well as reyes recovery
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
the most exciting recovery in baseball
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 17, 2009 8:54 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
A rec for you, savvy.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Let's turn japanese.
I’ve got a few favorite NPB players that I’d love to see the Cards get- Norichika Aoki (lefty CF, a bit redundant, but still awesome), Kaz Tadano (not mind-blowingly good, but he has a sex tape), and then there are a few realistic names being thrown out, mostly right-handed bullpen arms including the free agent Ryota Igarashii (owner of the NPB record for fastest pitch thrown).
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I'm pretty luke-warm on Ryota
He doesn’t seem to quite be in the Kawakami/Dice-K league (maybe more like Uhara) and people are talking 3yrs/$15m. i’d rather just have two years of Rafael Soriano for that price (or possibly even less). It seems to take NPB players the best part of a season to adjust to the MLB conditions, anyhow, and so I wonder if he won’t be an immediate success – I can only imagine for a reliever the adjustment would perhaps be longer.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 18, 2009 5:44 AM EST up reply actions
LH bat to pair with Craig in LF
Laynce Michael Nix. . . I know his numbers are awful, but he lights it up the birds on the bat. Mlbtraderumors has a post talking about him possibly being non-tendered.
No, I’m not really on board with the Nix idea, just trying to be funny
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
don't want him, but
don’t want to play against him either
he was this year’s jason michaels
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
Nix wouldn't be a horrible 4th OF/platoon guy,
his line against lefties is Aaron Miles-ish, but he’s an almost average hitter against righties and a slightly above average defender.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
you changed my mind
I am on board now. glad I came up with the Nix idea
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
ha ha
you un-nixed nix?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I'd pay this guy
just make sure he doesn’t play against the Cards. Not a bad thought for a 4th OF if nontendered.
well, they couldn't offer arb
but i’m sure mo would give him a mil and spring training invite
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
on second thought
not even that, if Roto has good info. says glaus likely to switch to 1B, which says to me he can’t throw. maybe he returns to anaheim.
those wanting glaus as insurance for freeze…i suggest tatis (seriously) or a player i will no longer mention but he was, for some reason, listed by erik on his cardinal UZR projections and he’s also linked to the phils as possible FA
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I think I prefer Hinske
good against righties (i.e. platoon option for Freese/Craig), can play the OF well and 3B just about passably.
Mind you, for a righty, Tatis actually doesn’t look like a bad option either. Depends on the price and whether the Mets might want him again (has he earned a year at 1B?) and I am a bit concerned about his health, but yeah, actually, I wouldn’t mind him.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 18, 2009 5:48 AM EST up reply actions
conventional wisdom
seems to see tatis as in line for a paycut from his 1.7. believe hinske makes considerably more? actually one way to go, if we beef up pitching instead of 3B/LF FA, is to seriously upgrade the bench by signing them both. lots of versatility, hinske can platoon with craig, tatis can backup anywhere in IF or OF, and along with lugo and larue (i’d just bring him back) that is a major improvement from last year.
only problem is someone to spell colby in CF, though i suppose lud could move over occasionally and tatis take right. if we go with 12 pitchers, we’d have another bench spot – hopefully mather – who could play center.
i kind of like that as one option/direction. we’re spending only about 7 mil or so to complete our position roster for a year, have plenty to sign smoltz and sheets for a year (with option on sheets) as well as a top bullpen arm like wagner/gonzalez/soriano without being locked into any long-term deals or giving up a single prospect (that we may need at deadline).
of course, signing holliday (20 mil) would prohibit most of the above (25 mil).
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I like Hinske mostly because he's a lefty
and we’re really short of lefty bats, especially one off the bench with a bit of pop (if Ank walks, our entire bench will be righties). I actually prefer DeJesus because he can play CF – as you said, Rasmus ideally needs a backup. I also like this guy who is a free agent and would likely sign a minor league deal as an emergency backup, he looks like a more palatable version of Shane Robinson (weak bat but just about MLB quality, decent contact hitter, good glove at all 3 positions) and could be stashed in AAA until we work out whether Rasmus can hit lefties or not, at which point he can brought up to make 1 or 2 starts a week: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2450&position=OF
Hinske will, I suspect, cost maybe $3m or so this year. The most he’s ever earnt in a season is $5m, and at his age (32 or 33) after a kinda average year, I don’t see him breaking that. He’s simply not as good as DeJesus, though.
My preference, if we can’t get Holliday or Cameron on sensible deals, would be much the same as you – Hinske/DeJesus (depending on what Kansas want for DDJ) and Craig platoon in LF. Freese is full-time 3B with a low-cost backup (I’d prefer Branyan or Glaus but realistically Tatis might be a lot cheaper). I really don’t like most of the high-end FA position players and I’d just as soon avoid them.
LF should be above-average with that platoon; arguably DDJ and Craig would be a 4-win solution, I’d like to hope Hinske and Craig might see 3 WAR. I think we’ll struggle to be average at 3B but Tatis/Glaus/Freese/whoever should at least be better than Thurston, and we might get a nice surprise (esp. from Freese’s glove). I also feel we have a much better bench than 2009, and room to accomodate Carl Crawford or another big trade target later in the year if we need it.
We then have about $25m to drop on the pitching side of things. I’d get Smoltz, either Sheets or Harden (I like them both, so I’d go with whoever’s cheaper and/or would accept 1 year) and the best non-type-A closer on the market (hopefully Wagner will not be offered arby, otherwise I’d look at Rafael Soriano). I suspect I could do all that quite comfortably on that budget and not have any players committed for more than 2 years.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 18, 2009 8:06 AM EST up reply actions
i'm with you
it’s one direction we could go (holliday being another, cameron another, etc.), and i’m not sure it’s not perhaps the best under the present (FA) circumstances. leaves alot of payroll flexibility and prospect availability moving forward when there may be someone on the market we fancy longer-term, specifically crawford (and maybe nolasco?), while at the same time being in position to win the division and see what we have in craig and freese.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I'd love to make these deals, freeing ALLEN CRAG, and Mr. Freeze,
but if that’s the case, we probably need a very good bench. I wouldn’t mind getting both DDJ and Hinske, because they’re both pretty versatile (DDJ can play all three OF spots, Hinske can platoon with Freese if he fails to hit in the majors), and they’re both lefties so they have sitting time built in.
As for pitchers, I’m with you on Harden/Smoltz, but I feel like Sheets signing in Texas is a foregone conclusion; if so I’d be more interested in Myers than anyone else, but if not, Sheets is definitely an attractive option.
Also, I hate to pay for relief help, and I feel like one of our injury-prone or young ML/AAA starters could easily become an excellent reliever (Smoltz, Boggs, and Harden all profile as shutdown relievers, while Otto and others could easily be above average). This even opens us up to someone with a scarier injury history but a higher upside like Erik Bedard.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I am *most* curious about the bench
it’s such an afterthought, but that can make-or-break the team as it is right now.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
The problem with adding Bedard is you're almost in danger of having TOO many starters!
With 3-4 spots already taken, and adding Smoltz, either Harden or Myers, AND Bedard, it’s a struggle to accomodate them all, but I guess you’re assuming (probably reasonably) that one or more of these guys is highly liable to be injured at any one time. I suppose Harden to the pen isn’t a terrible idea, but if you’re going to pay Harden 2 years and $20m or whatever to be a closer, why not just go out and grab Billy Wagner for one year and less money? I don’t really see the point of converting already effective starters into relief pitchers – I didn’t see the point of it in 2008 when we were talking about bringing Wainwright back in that role, and I don’t know. I really like RB and I think he generally talks a lot of sense, but I thought that post the other week about using our budget to bring in Wagner and Harden (as a reliever) didn’t make a lot of sense, to be perfectly honest.
I’m not very keen on Myers, personally, but I see that he could be a good, cheap option. My one issue would be that he’s kinda a safe bet (if we go that road, I probably prefer Pavano) – he’ll be somewhere in the ballpark of league average for probably a bit less than league average money, but it’s kinda uninspiring. I’d rather shoot for the moon and go for someone with ace potential with that extra money.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 19, 2009 5:54 AM EST up reply actions
Swisher in LF?
possibly being shopped by NYY…
Switch hitting, high OBP guy with 2 years and 15.75M on contract.
Not a horrible alternative to Holliday, imo.
Stupid Sexy Flanders!!!
Obviously there is the question of what it would cost
but I like him as an alternative, definitely.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
if we literally had to give up nothing
and just assume the contract…eh, i don’t know.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
that's dumb, he was a big reason why they won the WS
or it means they are going to get Lego
i’d take him, but i wouldn’t give up much for him. he’s a good dude
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
If that's the case
they are definitely in on Holliday.
I like Swisher, and he’s pretty cheap overall for a guy who’s probably no worse than a 2.5 win player. He’s better on defense than a I thought (he’s a 6 run player in RF according to UZR), and his bat would fit really well in the #2 slot ahead of Albert. He’s a really, really good fastball hitter and he’s able to take enough walks that pitchers will still have to challenge him with the fastball often.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Weren't his numbers awful in the world series?
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 19, 2009 8:48 PM EST up reply actions
That was supposed to be a reply to gdm
FAIL
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 19, 2009 8:49 PM EST up reply actions
true, but he's a lot like DeRo
he is a big clubhouse leader & everyone on the team pointed to him as to why they had good chemistry & were able to be so tight & win
so he may not have had a good WS or postseason, but at least he did have another good regular season
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
I would be really, really keen on swisher
I think he’s very under-rated. He has enough pop to be a potential 4 hole hitter if Ludwick/Rameses have another down year, and, like you say, a pretty encouraging walkrate (plus the infamous 2-hole “damage”) to hit ahead of Pujols otherwise. Plus, he’s got a pretty sound glove. .360 career OBP and 20+ HRs every season. Solidly above-average glove in left or right.
However, the main thing I like about him is that he’s a switch hitter. We seem to have very rarely had a decent switch hitter (guys like Grit really don’t count!), and he’s pretty effective from either side; from baseball reference:
vs RHP as LHB .242/.341/.468 (.809)
vs LHP as RHB .251/.395/.439 (.834)
His OBP is awesome vs LHP, so I say he hits #2 against them to get on base for Albert. His SLG vs RHP is higher however, so it might not be a crazy idea to see him hit #4 if Ludwick returns to a regular platoon split this year.
He seems like a really good fit, and he’s signed to a bargain contract. I wouldn’t give up one of our top 5 prospects for him (actually, I might shop Lynn or something) but I think he’d be a great alternative to Holliday and still leave us cash to improve in other areas (i.e. pitching).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 4:25 AM EST up reply actions
i'm swayed a bit
i guess the prospect would be my determining factor.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
i guess i'd have to give up hope
of finagling crawford, though.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Amen, amen
The fact that there are some decent fall back options like Swisher make me a lot less worried about signing Holliday.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I also like Swisher, though I'm a bit scared of what it might take to get him.
He’s been traded twice: Once for Ryan Sweeney, Gio Gonzalez, and Fautino De Los Santos
The second time he was packaged with Kaneoka Texeira and traded for Wilson Betemit, Jeffrey Marquez and Jhonny Nunez.
Assuming the asking price has dropped once again, a decent offer from us would probably have to be two players, one of them being one of our decent upcoming starters, with the other possibly from the ranks of our remaining relief corps.
He bats switch, is always near or at the top of the league in pitches per plate appearance, and he’s 28, a very good age to acquire a player.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
shit. it's too bad the royals already signed betemit. or we could sign him and then trade him back for swish.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
i wish we could just use the van method of acquiring players.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Yeah, he's probably not the best option, given his friendly contract
I’m sure the Yanks will want at least one top prospect for him and it’s kinda hard to see what they need, what with all the massive spending and everything. Maybe high-upside young pitchers, of which we basically have none (unless they’d want Sanchez for their increasingly cheap, internally-developed bullpen), and maybe a player or two to take over an OF spot in a few years. Unfortunately, I think these may be the positions in which we have very little in the way of high-upside talent. Not sure I’d want to give up DJ Tools AND Sanchez for him, although that’s probably the sort of talent it’d take.
Also, he’s a fan favourite in Yankeeville, I believe, so perhaps it’s all hot air that he’s available anyhow.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 23, 2009 5:31 AM EST up reply actions
A general question about player values
A lot of people (myself included) tend to reject a fair number of type A free agents with marginal type A skills without much thought beyond the draft pick that we sacrifice. My question is: why?
The value of a first round pick is pretty well established from what I can tell, and it’s not like the other GMs don’t know about these consequences. You could argue that teams with protected picks don’t have to bear as great a cost, but we’re probably talking about a couple million dollars on top of a contract in the tens of millions. Why doesn’t the market already adequately account for the compensation picks (i.e., type A’s would make a few million less than they would otherwise)? Is the market actually messed up, or is it just our perception of the market?
Type A free agency is worth around $7M to a team losing a player,
but it probably only costs $4-5M to the team acquiring him, so it’s priced in but it pales in comparison to the total value of the contracts of high-end free agents. There were a few examples of type A status substantially affecting free agents last season. Orlando Hudson was forced to sign extremely late and for a mere $3.38M (despite averaging between 2 and 3 WAR for several seasons). Orlando Cabrera sat in the same boat until the A’s signed him for $4M even though he was likely a league average player (his production fell off a cliff in 2009, but that’s neither here nor there).
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
i think it's just
hatred of people named orlando
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
i never like tony orlando
dawn was ok.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I'm talking about guys who say they wouldn't sign Damon or Wagner since they're type A
given that the market understands these costs (as evidenced last year), someone being type A shouldn’t bear much impact on our feelings about signing them.
by brackenthebox on Nov 19, 2009 6:23 PM EST up reply actions
I think it's our perception of the market too
There are plenty of Type A’s, especially in more recent seasons, that have had to take a discount on their contract because of the price of losing the draft pick. This is one reason why Billy Wagner is playing chicken with the Red Sox so that they don’t offer him arbitration. He knows that his price is going to go down because of the value of losing a first round draft pick to the other team.
Similar things happen to relievers who are offered arbitration and decline it when they are Type A — like Juan Cruz (I think?) last year.
Generally though, we really only look at the big time Type A players like Holliday and Sabathia, who bring back so much in value and are such superior players at their positions that the draft pick is really an afterthought on their multi year contracts.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
you changed your sig
how long did you have the old one? seemed like forever.
Really, the only bad part of bacon is that it makes you thirsty . . . for more bacon
I think the big loser was Juan Cruz
still (eventually) got a job at Kansas but it looked for a while like he wasn’t even going to be playing ANYWHERE this year because the type-A status was such a killer for a pitcher who was merely a reasonable set-up guy. There’s a couple of relief pitchers this year who won’t make jack shit because of the Type A, but I still wouldn’t want any of them. A guy like Kevin Gregg probably isn’t worth the loss of a late first-round pick alone, let alone paying him $3-5m on top of that.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 4:28 AM EST up reply actions
does that $4-5M consider the time value of money
or is that the aggregate over the expected lifetime of the pick? $4M spread over a potential 6 years (with the majority of the value coming in the later years) is a lot less valuable than $4M off the front of a FA contract.
by brackenthebox on Nov 20, 2009 7:24 AM EST up reply actions
I assume it would be factored as a single, first season cost, in the same way a signing bonus would be.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Yes, but
I do wonder if it’s factored in when they calculated the original number—-yu get at that from some sort of calculation like (value of average ML 1st rounder in non-arb years)(number of non-arb years)(probability players makes majors) = value of draft pick
But you should probably factor in the fact that that guy isn’t reaching the majors until 3 or 4 years down the road.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
I think that's included in probability player makes the majors,
since it often takes three or more years for a player to reach his potential.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
The rotoworld bar has Boston looking at Adrián Beltré
Would it be possible to throw Boston something and get Mike Lowell?
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
isn't he falling apart because he's too old?
that’s why the sawx want a new 3rdbaseman. or Gonzo from the fathers so they can move youk back to 3rd
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
Lowell will cost $12M next season.
It’s doubtful that Beltre will cost that much- why not just sign him?
Lowell is still an above average hitter, but it’s unlikely that his defense is still average, and he’s been less and less able to stay on the field. He has a shot at league average production, but it’s unlikely that he surpasses or even matches what we could get for $12M elsewhere. If Boston really wants him gone, in a salary-eating, Julio Lugo type of way, then I think he’s a decent fit for us (good bat, mediocre but not terrible defense, can’t stay healthy but can be backed up by our rookies). I wouldn’t trade anything to get him, however.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Yeah, that's my attitude, too
it’s a matter of how much of that contract Boston’s willing to eat, and what they want back. But abstractly, I’d see him as a decent fill-in for 3B.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
just as soon risk
santa
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
Yeah
if they ate $7m of the deal and took back something from the low minors, I’d be up for that. Thing is, they might as well just keep him and let him make occasional DH appearances or keep him as depth/talent off the bench, anyhow. I don’t really think saving 5 or 6m on his contract by salary dumping him is worth THAT much to them.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 23, 2009 5:33 AM EST up reply actions
if boston ate half of Lowell's salary
and they only took a low A/AA guy in return, we’d still be paying 6M for an aging right handed bat with declining defense. Why wouldn’t we just offer 3/4M to Glaus on a one-year deal, and keep the prospect/few million clams?
Stupid Sexy Flanders!!!
by timmycardinals on Nov 23, 2009 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
i hear rumours he can't play 3B anymore (Glaus, that is)
and we don’t need a 1B. But otherwise, yes, I agree.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 23, 2009 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
mm, I love baseless rumors
so the Yanks, Angels, and Giants are all out of the Holliday stakes, or so they say. The Red Sox are … oh man, I gotta paste this —
The Red Sox have expressed interest in four players – all Scott Boras clients – early in the hot stove season, according to Mike Silverman of The Boston Herald. Those four players would be Matt Holliday, Adrian Beltre, Mike Gonzalez, and Rick Ankiel.
DeRosa could be going anywhere, though I’m thinking the Phillies have the best shot.
The Doc sweepstakes have opened up again, great.
lol cubs
lol brewers until our ex-pitchers become C-killers
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Mike Gonzalez seems to be a good fit
they do loves their lefty set-up guys.
I laughed at Ankiel but, as a 4th or 5th OF option, he’s probably not a terrible one, actually. Fenway’s short fences will probably suit him, he’s a decent bet to bounceback (not to 2008 form, but maybe to a .300+ OBP with some power), and he’d be a useful defensive option (in fact, he could actually be better than Ellsbury in CF…), plus he’ll likely only cost $1-2m and no draft picks. If he tanks, fuck it, they’re the red sox, they can just dump him and find someone else for that role.
Beltre makes super sense for them – great glove, they have an opening at 3B (although I assume that would mean they’re out of the Adrian Gonzalez running as he’d need to play 1B, moving Youk to 3B) and he’s a dead-pull power hitter who hits a lot of pretty deep flyballs in Safeco which will be doubles and dingers all day long in Fenway.
To me, Holliday is a better fit for the Yankees, which is where I think he ends up.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 23, 2009 5:38 AM EST up reply actions
Brian Bannister
http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2009/11/20/1166905/daily-roundup
According to the story above, the Royals are interested in trading Brian Bannister.
1) Banny looks at PITCHf/x numbers and SABR stats. Plus, he got Greinke to look at them, apparently. Maybe he’d help the organization somehow that way.
2) This year, even though he pitched in a spacious park, Bannister showed that he can get plenty of ground balls with a 1.47 GB/FB ratio even though his career is only a 1.09.
3) He has a career 1.76 K/BB, but the past two years were 1.95 and 1.96, respectively.
4) He would not cost much money at all, and I cannot see it taking much to get him considering he is a back of the rotation or Brad Thompson role type of guy right now…but I think that he’d be a guy that Duncan can work with (read: a Suppan/Looper type.)
5) He’ll only be entering his age 29 season, with only 540 IP in the majors on his arm.
I would love, love, love him
He actually used Pitch f/x to improve his groundball numbers. His cutter has about as much vertical break as the best sinkers in the game, so when he throws it, he’ll get a lot of ground balls. He’s thrown basically 60% cutters this year, while abandoning the slider and the 4 Seam fastball (both strikeout and flyball pitches). Dave Duncan would absolutely love him, even if he didn’t throw a sinker.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 21, 2009 1:07 AM EST up reply actions
He's also not back of the rotation
His FIP/tRA this year were both above average, and given his massively changed approach from this year to last, we can weigh those numbers a lot more than we normally would. Plus, he’d get a nice boost by moving to the NL.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 21, 2009 1:09 AM EST up reply actions
so he pulled a piniero?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Same question arises, then.
Is it sustainable?
Of course, if it’s the choice between Banny and Jo-el, I go with Banny because he’d cost us a fingernail and a toenail in a trade, and then about 1/5 the cost of Jo-el over the course of a 3-4 year contract.
He'll regress
However, we can weight his last season more heavily than we otherwise would.
He’s probably a league average starter going forward, which is pretty good.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 21, 2009 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
ok, butwe keep the puppy
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
KL would kill him of he came over
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
as in you're referring to that playoff incident between him and Thompson?
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
wait
it was bannister who hit him, right?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Mahay
with the Twins now. er, no, last I saw him — dunno where he is now.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
for future reference
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2009/5/23/884554/game-44-open-thread-may-23-2009#16081470
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
oh, nevermind
It’s a cause for concern, but I think he’ll be OK
great work, vexed
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
vexed and fang actually jinxed more than zoomzoom
according to the advanced metrics.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
huh?
i’m talking about the royals’ pitcher who hit kyle lohse in the forearm and subsequently (at least in appearance) ruined his 2009 season
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
If Bannister doesn't cost much in a trade, why not?
I believe he’s coming into his first year of arbitration, and, given his low counting stats (He’s won more than 10 games and topped 100Ks only once in three seasons as a starter so far, and pitched an average of about 170 innings each year, with a 4.79 ERA) I can’t see him getting a huge raise over the league minimum.
I don’t think his SABR-friendliness means anything for the organisation, but his ability to produce a 50% GB-rate will certainly mean something to Dave Duncan. We get him for three relatively cheap years.
Perhaps the only slight question mark over this deal would be in the medium-term; we have a couple of guys (Garcia and Lynn) who are either major-league ready or very close to it who basically profile as Bannister types (plenty of GB, not a whole lot of Ks, decent control). Obviously, we can trade away one or both of those guys but to some extent it seems slightly redundant to trade for a player when we already have similar comps in the org. There’s also a few other guys in the mid-to-high minors who have the ability to fit into that “#3-#5” starter role, one or more of whom may take a step forward in the next few years. Blake Hawksworth, although he has a very different arsenal to Bannister (2-seamer and changeup mainly), produced a 54% GB-rate in his cup of coffee this year, with a 3.08 FIP in AAA too.
Still, if he won’t cost a top-ten prospect, I’d be more than happy to find a home for Bannister. Even if it’s someone like Henley or another borderline top-10 guy, maybe it’s a fair deal.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 23, 2009 5:58 AM EST up reply actions
Also
this is a big-ass red flag IMO. Perhaps it’s why the Royals are suddenly keen to dump a productive, cheap starter with a new and effective skillset?
From this September (he was then shutdown the rest of the season):
News: Bannister said he has been dealing with shoulder fatigue for the past month, the Kansas City Star reports.
Analysis: “It’s progressively gotten worse,” he said. “It’s affected my stuff over the last month. I’ve still been able to give this team innings, but today it really affected my ability to get the ball down in the strike zone.” His 165.2 innings pitched between Kansas City and Triple-A Omaha are less than his 182.2 last season, but his 2009 innings have been more productive than 2008. He said the problems started Aug. 2, and he has an 8.80 ERA in his five starts since.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 23, 2009 5:59 AM EST up reply actions
i never know with the Royals
they’re so inept, their demotions are choosing free agency
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Bannister scares me
With his temper who knows what would happen.
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 23, 2009 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
Rough sex.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 23, 2009 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
Brewers bring their ex-Cardinals starters total to ... a million billion
First Mulder, then Wellemeyer rumors, and now the talk is swirling around Smoltz.
Can’t they make their own pitchers?! Dave Duncan must be paid in sausages or something.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
sausages, in milwaukee?
i’ll take it, as long the pirates aren’t in town
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
and as long as
they stop picking on poor pornstache
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
they went after Yadi, too.
I think. I do remember there were two sausages vs. catcher incidents. All part of the plan.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
NOOOOOO
I want Smoltz. At the very least, I don’t want him in our division….
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 23, 2009 5:41 AM EST up reply actions
Brian Giles?
low cost option for lefty-bench bat and/or platoon mate in LF with Allen Craig?
If we did resign Holliday, then Giles would be in line to start various games in RF against tough righties, or strictly be the bat off the bench from the left-side. Much better alternative than Joe Thurston pinch-hitting, imo. If Holliday goes elsewhere, Giles and Craig could platoon in LF and hope they become a good productive pair.
The linked article references a quote from Giles saying that he understands he won’t be targeted as an everyday player and may have to sign a minor-league deal and prove his way onto the roster.
a minor-league contract offer now, would be a good move with strong upside from Mo.
Stupid Sexy Flanders!!!
by timmycardinals on Nov 24, 2009 10:14 AM EST reply actions
Offer that man the Matt Clement contract, tonight.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
no to wife beaters.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 24, 2009 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
I think it was his girlfriend
So technically we’d be OK.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Why not Myers
He’s only 28, was a good starter before they started shuttling him to the bullpen, gives you 200 innings most years, played for a high caliber team. Probably comes at a reasonable price based on what I have been reading. I’d take him and Smoltz and feel pretty good about rotation with Garcia, Hawksworth and Lynn as backups.
Would you rather have Piniero or Myers?
Just win
for the same price, Pineiro
I’m guessing Myers will cost one less year and a bit less money, though.
Myers seems a bit of a low risk, low ceiling option to me. If we go that route I’d probably rather just get Pavano and save a bit of money for the bullpen/Smoltz. If we’re spending $8-10m on a pitcher I’d rather shoot for the moon and go for a potential ace, Harden on Sheets.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 25, 2009 6:06 AM EST up reply actions
i thought you said no to wife beaters
Stupid Sexy Flanders!!!
by timmycardinals on Nov 25, 2009 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
I did
hence I can’t really see a scenario I’d want Myers. I quite like Giles (wife-whupping aside) so I had to say no to him on principle – I don’t even really like Myers.
If we’ve got $8m to spend I’d rather even get Pavano and spend any extra on getting Springer back or Calero or someone.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 26, 2009 6:35 AM EST up reply actions
Myers would appear to have a lot of upside given his early years performance
I can’t see Pinata ever being more than he was last year. Admittedly Myers seems to have a few rough edges but I like his upside and he seems to be recovered from the hip issues. There’s also the possbility of putting him in bullpen for playoffs if you don’t like Franklin’s situation at the time.
Just win
Pineiro last year was a lot better than Myers has ever been
so if last year is Pinata’s maximum upside, Myers hasn’t hit his yet.
I’m not convinced about Myers in the pen, really, he wasn’t great in that role last time the Phillies put him there.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 26, 2009 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
Cabrera's on the block according to the Detroit media...
6/126 for a 27 year old 1b/3b/LF… He’d hit better than Holliday, but field worse. Hell he might not even be able to play 3rd or left anymore… Presumably we’d have to give up DJ, Lynn, Craig… I don’t know if that’s worth it, or if it would be enough. He is young, and I think Pujols could help him behave appropriately.
MB for LF in 2010!
FYP
6/126 for a 27 year old 1b/DH/3b/LF… He’d hit better than about the same as Holliday, but field worse like a fat man on roller skates
There is an interesting look at his trade value over at Fangraphs.
FWIW, he’s really not better offensively than Holliday if you look at wOBA, he’s just a few years younger — but with his weight gain, I’d guess that he probably isn’t as good a bet to be productive into his mid-30’s as Holliday would be, and as you said, he’s going to be terrible on defense and he can’t play LF or 3B anymore. If we’re going to pay Cabrera 6Y$126M, I guess I’d rather just pay Holliday 6Y$120 and keep my prospects.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
by fourstick on Nov 25, 2009 12:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
yabut...
there’s upside in terms of having his peak years (likely) in front of him, he could mature, he could improve his conditioning… Pujols could legitimately be a positive force for this improvement, and Cabrera could help bring Pujols back. Just something to think about…
MB for LF in 2010!
He's Ryan Braun bad at 3B
and Adam Dunn bad in LF. Trading for him essentially tells Pujols that he’ll be getting replaced, because I can’t see a scenario where’s he’s moving back to either of those positions. The last time he played either was 2 years and 40-50 pounds ago. I just don’t know where he plays on this Cardinal team without being a huge liability on defense.
I’ll also bet that Holliday will be worth more in his age 30-31-32 seasons than Cabrera will be in his age 27-28-29 seasons and that Holliday will be an effective player later in his career than Cabrera will be.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Shelley Duncan = free agent
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
So you're calling Shelley Duncan FAT?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
My zany hot corner meanderings
Cardinals magically sign Matt Holliday. But they will need some Freese insurance if the plan remains start him.
Enter Joe Crede, the cure for what ails. Balky back and all, he’s been worth 2 WAR a season, despite playing less than 100 games each year. This is largely based on the strength of his glove. Freese could spell Crede in order to keep him fresh, and the pressure would be off of him to hit MLB pitching right away. Crede signed for $2M + incentives last season, which is bargain basement.
OK, we don’t get Holliday and still need a big bat in the lineup. Just how horrible would be if Branyan moved back to 3B. Jeff’s UZR projections have him -1, that doesn’t quite pass the smell test? -5? -10? Even if he were a -1 win defender, I think he’d still be around 2.5 WAR. Branyan probably wouldn’t require more than $12/2y, right? That leaves plenty of money for pitching.
Or lastly, bring back Placido Polanco! He has a funny shaped head and he could make Albert happy. He’s a zero with the bat, but he can pick at 2B, probably will pick it at 3B. I’m not advocating, just throwing it out there.
godfather of futureredbirds.net
We gotta have a second star...
Albert and seven pygmies isn’t going to get it done. I say go all out for Holliday. If that fails move on to Bay or trade for Cabrera.
Also, Magglio. One year deal. The Tigers are desperate to unload salary. I’d take him over Branyan any day.
MB for LF in 2010!
I say thee nay
to all of your Tiger trade ideas. Too much salary, and Miggy is a 1B only.
godfather of futureredbirds.net
I haven't seen him play...
but how can he be a 1B only? He’s 27. He has the capacity to workout and get slimmer. Such a talent… way too early for this.
MB for LF in 2010!
the Tigers want the moon and the stars
for someone who has little surplus value. and I’m not counting on him to suddenly get religion and get into shape well enough to play 3b.
this is to say nothing of his questionable character.
godfather of futureredbirds.net
because he's huge
like, Prince Fielder huge. How can HE be a 1B only? He’s only 25.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 26, 2009 10:15 AM EST up reply actions
Reports had him at 250 lbs...
He’s a couple inches taller than Fielder, who is probably 260-280. He’s listed at 6’2 185, so he has a lot of room on the downside if he gets serious.
MB for LF in 2010!
This is Prince Fielder.
This is Miguel Cabrera.
Cabrera is definitely chubby and could be in far better shape. But he’s no Prince Fielder.
Now with extra feisty!
dang untucker
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 27, 2009 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
He looks flabbier than Prince.
But he’s supposed to be getting fit this off-season.
Now with extra feisty!
tips for the holidays....
http://sfgiants.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/11/how_to_eat_like_a_panda.html
There he is in the foreground.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
In the 2007 scouting report by fans
he rated right along with Ryan Braun and Kevin Kouzmanoff. And he’s not going to get better with age. So, ouch. No, I don’t think he can play 3B. Not to say he’d render himself totally worthless, like Adam Dunn, but you can probably count on him to get worse.
And he’s guaranteed $126M. Do you think he is going to be able to play 3B in 2013? 2015?
godfather of futureredbirds.net
The main thing is the $126M.
At this point we could possibly get Holliday (a similar hitter, age, with better defense who will cost no prospects), for less or similar money.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Cabrera is three years younger...
and, I think, a slightly better hitter. Now the conditioning issue could make the age difference moot…
Trading DJ-Lynn-Sanchez-Craig for Cabrera would hurt, but if it allows us to let Holliday walk, we get back two picks to make up for the prospects we lose. There’s an oppo cost for bringing Holliday back. It’s not free.
MB for LF in 2010!
So we trade 4 of our top 6 or 7 prospects
to get a guy who probably isn’t as good as Holliday, doesn’t have a position in our team, and costs more money than Holliday likely will? And this is offset by a couple of draft picks?
As Socrates might have said, what the fuck?
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 26, 2009 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
Well...
I was just pointing out that if acquiring Cabrera allowed us to let Holliday go, then it could be said that his acquisition provides us with two picks we wouldn’t otherwise have. This would offset, to some degree, the prospects lost.
MB for LF in 2010!
not really
The average 1st round pick is worth $5M.
The prospects you mentioned have a surplus value of around $12M.
The compensation pick doesn’t really offset anything, and again, we’re talking about $126M in salary for a wifebeater who can’t play 3B. I just can’t get on board with this.
godfather of futureredbirds.net
If he can't...
play 3rd or left then obviously the whole discussion is moot. As for the pick, it doesn’t completely make up for the lost prospects, but as you’ve outlined it might make up for 40-50% of the value lost in the prospects we would send.
The main reason I suggested this was the potential synergy between Pujols and Cabrera. Pujols likes to be surrounded by other latinos, and Cabrera would be guaranteed to be with the team until 2016. There’s also the chance Pujols could help Cabrera grow up, behave, excercise, etc.
MB for LF in 2010!
Albert to third?
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
Can't throw
arm will fall off = bad.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 27, 2009 5:24 AM EST up reply actions
disagree on synergy
A guy who goes out with a .26 BAC the night before what is, essentially, a playoff for the playoffs — and was probably still intoxicated when he took the field — is not someone anyone should expect Albert to reform.
This premise is loaded with stereotypes, and it hinges the entire team’s well-being on Albert Pujols, which is what I thought we were trying to avoid in the first place.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I'm quite liking this "no wifebeaters" thing
could potentially be the first morally affirmative VEB meme?
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 27, 2009 5:23 AM EST up reply actions
then we have to remove Lugo from the roster
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
True dat
I’d forgotten all about it. however, he WAS found not guilty, however tenuously:
Lugo was found not guilty of misdemeanor assault after his wife stated that she had exaggerated the story; despite having signed a sworn statement
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 27, 2009 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
hmm I wonder if the lugo's wife would really want to jeopardize her husband's career
which could potentially nettle herself a few million in assets?
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
Depends.
Where do they legally reside and what are the divorce laws? I doubt Latin American divorces are as favorable to women as American ones.
Now with extra feisty!
Or even universally available
Though I don’t know for sure, but there are places where divorces are still illegal.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
it was when he was in houston
i assume one can file for divorce wherever you reside
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
Could vs. Would
It is so sad to hear about abused wives who won’t leave for one reason or another. Of course, I am not privy to the facts of Lugo’s or Myers’ cases, but if I had to guess… Boy do I feel judgmental today.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
Placido isn't zero with the bat either
.321 wOBA last year, but a .339 mark the year before and .371 the year before that.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 26, 2009 12:33 AM EST up reply actions
CHONE projects
a .327 wOBA. Maybe not zero just going off that projection, but not a whole above 0. Still, with his glove I think he can be a 3 WAR player again.
godfather of futureredbirds.net
Oh, by zero I thought you meant like awful
by vivaelpujols on Nov 26, 2009 5:52 PM EST up reply actions
Meh
He’s pretty good, and will be cheap. Type A’s are only worth about 5 mil right? The surplus value of Polanco will be more than that.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 28, 2009 9:29 PM EST up reply actions
Sure
yeah, and they’ll already have some extra picks for Holliday, and probably Pineiro. You have to offer arbitration to JP, no?
godfather of futureredbirds.net
I'd love Branyan
but I think he wants to play every day and I think an AL team will let him (probably Seattle) – given he hit 31HR last year, 2/12 seems a bit on the cheap side too. I’d definitely do that if that was the price, though, it’s a total bargain. He’s a good platoon option for 3B/LF as well.
I don’t see what Crede gives us that Freese won’t. Even if Freese totally bombs, Lugo, Craig and even Barden could be at least 1-WAR players at 3B. Crede seems to be glove-first, very little bat. I think Freese will offer a similarly good glove (well, maybe not quite as good, but the back injuries worry me and at least Freese is healthy) and probably a better bat. I just worry that Crede’s hitting is poised to drop off a cliff sometime soon – although his walkrate’s remained strong the last two years (even above his career average) he’s really reliant on his power and ability to hit 15-20HR to be much use with the bat, given his propensity to hit popups; I just wonder if the constant back troubles will squash that at some point. If he was a lefty, I could see it – he plays vs RHP and Freese vs LHP, but as a 2nd choice 3B, I dunno; it seems we have that already with Craig/Lugo.
I think Polanco’s a type A. No way I give up a pick for a guy whose bat is marginal at 3B and who probably isn’t a much better fielder than Freese.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 26, 2009 6:43 AM EST up reply actions
all not worth worrying about until wednesday
arb for all our free agents, however, is the place to start
that includes santa
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
Glaus will probably accept
and then we have a 3B who probably can’t play 3B anymore, and no 1B space to put him on.
Also, we’ll end up with Todd Wellemeyer back. I really don’t want to offer him arbitration (although I appreciate you likely weren’t including him!).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 26, 2009 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
you are correct
i should have said arb to all a and b fa’s
k-bot, the colonel, rick-dick, etc. are no-no (give or take larue)
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
Probably not to LaRue
if we really want him back, we could just offer him the same deal again (1yr/$1m), rather than risk him getting a raise. Actually, looking at how poorly he hit last year (and how precipitously his BB rate has dropped) I’m not sure if there aren’t better options somewhere. I’d probably offer him 750K or something, barely above league minimum. If someone wants to give him more, let him walk.
If there’s a chance that no-one offers him a full time gig, I’m increasingly keen on Zaun – he’s much better than LaRue (therefore we could give Yadi at least one day off a week = keep him healthy with years left on his deal), I wouldn’t mind him as a full-time guy if Yadi gets injured, and he’s actually a useful PH (unlike LaRue; .344 career OBP which has stayed that high in the last couple of years), and he’s a switch-hitter, which makes him pretty useful (maybe he should make most of his starts vs RHP). Of course, he’ll be more expensive (at least $2m, possibly even a touch more), but I wonder if that’s not a worthwhile move if we don’t sign Holliday (or go cheap with someone like Dejesus) and thus have lots of $ to spend. He’d probably be a 1-win guy, even as a backup.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 27, 2009 5:30 AM EST up reply actions
let's not forget, Larue's homer clinched the division for us.
that makes him somewhat more valuable to me.
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
A backup catcher for 2 million?
Uh… I’m not sure I want that.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 27, 2009 6:04 PM EST up reply actions
If he hits like he's done lately it's not very hard for him to exceed that value
even in ~150-200 PAs, which he should get (LaRue got 120-odd last year and I’d give Zaun more, esp. as a PH, and give him more starts to take pressure off Yadi).
My initial reaction was the same as you, but the more I think about it the more I wonder if it doesn’t make some sense.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 28, 2009 5:03 AM EST up reply actions
The problem with this
is that he’s the backup catcher, who you normally don’t use as a pinch hitter because of the catching injury implications. So I don’t think he solves a LOT of problems, and I’d rather see Anderson get shot at catching at the big league level next season if Yadi gets hurt if nothing more than to raise his trade profile.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
looks like LaRue's back anyhow
so it’s kinda moot now.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 1, 2009 4:46 AM EST up reply actions
Glaus can't play 3B?
I think I also read somewhere that Glaus can’t quite throw anymore. But at the end of last season, he was pretty smooth playing 3B and showed no problems. Did he re-injure or have a setback?
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
yeah I didn't quite get that
maybe there were a few too many bat-slams.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
If this is the case
why would he accept? He surely doesn’t want to come back and be a bench player right?
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
there seem to be few scenarios
where offering santa arb doesn’t work out favorably for mo
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
I think rumors about 38 year old middle relievers...
are about as juiceless as some of that white meat I had last night.
MB for LF in 2010!
rather pony up a few more bucks
for springer
and a lot more for wagner
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
No
I think there are much better options out there, even at that price, and our bullpen seems loaded from the right side anyway.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
I don't see a lot of reliable options on the RHP side of the pen, personally.
A couple of middle relievers (KMac, Franklin, Hawk), a guy who could potentially be good but sucked last year (Motte) and a guy who’s arguably better served being in the rotation in Memphis as our 6th starter (Boggs); I definitely think at least one more RHP is a must. Still, I agree that Donnelly isn’t a terribly good option.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 1, 2009 4:48 AM EST up reply actions
If we were making room for Mariano Rivera
I would agree, but we’re not, we’re making room for the Ghost of Brendan Donnelly. We have a lot of mediocre arms in the bullpen, why sign another one? I guess that was my point — might as well stick with what we have and hope someone has a breakout season.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Oh, I agree about Donnelly
but guys like Calero, Soriano, maybe even Russ Springer – these are genuine upgrades over Hawksworth or whoever. I’m in for someone like that.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 1, 2009 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't bring back Springer
but I would be interested in Calero or Soriano (as long as he’s not type A). I think if you bring in Soriano to close and shift Franklin back down to his setup role, our bullpen gets a lot better with just that one move. If Motte returns to form and stops walking people and giving up dingers he can be the high leverage righty in the middle innings with K-Mac and Hawk picking up more of the long work.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
craigs platoon partner?
2007 – 2009 vs rhp’s
jason bay
.270 / .357 / .494 / .851 in 1233 AB’s
adam laroche
.278 / .361 / .495 / .856 in 1153 AB’s
no idea what la roche’s “D” would look like, but if the bar is dunn, LOL………..laroche would be a affordable alternative
LaRoche is a bad defensive first basemen
My dick would be better in left field.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 28, 2009 9:28 PM EST up reply actions
....
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Nov 28, 2009 10:19 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
....
…………………….
……………………………………………………………………………………………..
……
by vivaelpujols on Nov 28, 2009 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
one day gdm will only speak to us in gifs
which will wreak havoc when the robot goes medieval on gif memes.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 28, 2009 11:28 PM EST up reply actions
the prophecy foretold of such events
Though it is set to happen when the chosen one betrays the one they call Momok.
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
is that when the sky rains bacon?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
is that sharapova? that's gotta be the french open.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Not Maria
but my guess would be a Russian player. They dominate the women’s scene.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
Matt Holliday + yoga
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
= OM my god that's an enormous contract!
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
we're... we're not worried. we're not worried. we're. not. WORRIED. NOT AT ALL. WORRIED.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
on the bright side, that means Albert will never sign with the Cubs.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Further on that article, Yadi
Miggy Tejada but no Beltre? That’s like saying we’ll take the crummy on-base percentage but minus the GG defense, please. Does this pass the smell test?
godfather of futureredbirds.net
I BLAME tom s. FOR THIS
→ http://twitter.com/MLBSTLCardinals/status/6204499169
(Yeah, probably nexdef’d but this is the Hot Stove post.)
Witness: http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2009/11/7/1114129/november#storyjump
On the other hand, there’s this awesome idea.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
which part?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Ruben Gotay freed.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I did not know LaRue was eyecandy for the ladies
I mean, I knew, but I did not believe it till RB told me.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
speaking of minor league free agents, how's this for FAT?
Jeff Fiorentino – CF
projection: 0.269 0.344 0.409 0.753
++ CF defense. think he could hold his own in a platoon w/ craig? i love that OBP.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
minor league free agent.
Check his fangraphs and minor league splits page.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Dec 1, 2009 1:07 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
They're projecting quite a big bump in slugging for a 26 year old
.324 career SLG, although only 173 PAs. I suppose he did hit 12 HRs in AAA last year.
Shame he’s not RH – would be a useful potential platoon partner for Rasmus. Still looks like a good spot, though, tom – can’t hurt to pick him up, can it?
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 1, 2009 5:29 AM EST up reply actions
I had the same thought process.
Seems extremely optimistic for someone who reminds me of Jon Jay, but then his AAA line was worth a .393 wOBA.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
i don't care too much about the SLG - his value is almost totally in his OBP, which he's been able to sustain
at the ML level. i also like the +14 TZR/150 in RF last year.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Let's be careful about labeling him a good defender based off of total zone
There is a ton of noise in that data, especially in one season. He was average to below average in the past few seasons:
http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi
And given that he’s not in the major leagues, I assume that scouts don’t think he’s a great defender either.
really?
he was a +5 by raw TZR in CF in 2008 in 175 chances; didn’t get enough time there for minor league splits to run that out to a tzr/150, but that would have been pretty comparable to his 2009 numbers (a raw +6 in 226 chances). in 2007, he saw the most time in CF and ended with a -3 tzr/150, marginally below average. his UZR data in his time in the majors is off the charts good.
i googled the orioles sbn site for info on him and they said he could play all three positions in the OF. if you’re even a passable CF (see, ankiel, rick; mather, joe), you’re generally a plus corner OF. since that’s how we’d use him, he seems interesting.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
175 chances is... nothing
Given all of the caveats in TZ, which is based on much less granular data than UZR, that doesn’t mean much at all. In fact, given his two previous season, which came in larger samples, he rated below average. Similarly, his career UZR in the majors comes in less than 400 innings, which is pretty much worthless.
It’s possible that he’s a good defender. However, the data that you are looking at is way to sporadic and unreliable for you to tell based on that. He may me a good player, but I wouldn’t want him even as part of a platoon unless he’s the very last option.
tom
is this the guy who also had a stint in A’s org?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
If we shuck the right oysters,
perhaps we’ll find a pearl.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
so long as there are no
LOBsters.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Dec 1, 2009 6:17 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Gotta love food metaphors
Man Stew. Cosistently Concetrate. I invented Davey Concepcion.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Sorry
My wistful memories of FireJoeMorgan sometimes result in little outbursts like that.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
FWIW
i’m not sure Morgan’s ever really mis-spelled “consistent”, as it’s one of his favourite words (although I suppose he does do with concetrate, so…)
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 2, 2009 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I think you're technically right about that
I know he’s misspelled concentrate plenty of times, but I just automatically misspell consistent when I talk about Joe Morgan. Not because he can’t spell the word (I am pretty sure he can), but because it feels right.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
curly fries for everyone?
except Troy Glaus
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
if they don't offer to DeRo or Pineiro Mozeliak should be sacked
seriously.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 1, 2009 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
Pineiro definitley
I don’t know about DeRo though
by vivaelpujols on Dec 1, 2009 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
rotoworld sidebar says every A or B got an arb offer except Glaus.
well done, mo.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
gawd i would destroy some curly fries right now
i kind of feel bad for Santa. if he didn’t screw up his shoulder, he’s probably be here for another season or two
of course the same could be said for Scotty Ro. oh what might have been,,,,
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
Mo officially has balls.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Meh - none of them will/should accept anyhow
and even if they do, so what? We get an average 3B/LF (DeRo) for likely <$8m or a SP who put up 4+ wins last year for a similar price. Win-win. I still think this was a no brainer!
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 2, 2009 7:13 AM EST up reply actions
Phillies eyeing Smoltz
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
HANDS OFF MY SMOLTZ!!!!
Smoltz and Carl Pavano will share the NL Cy Young next year while leading the Cardinals to a 150-win season. I imagine.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 2, 2009 7:14 AM EST up reply actions
they're eyeing Of the Rose, too
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
He seems a decent fit for them
I guess that would make sense.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 2, 2009 9:27 AM EST up reply actions
everyone is looking at them, really.
Red Sox seem to want to buy everyone not nailed down.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
and yet the Yankees are the evil empire
i really wish people would wake the f up & see the sawx are in fact moar evil than the Yankees. because they cry “oh poor us we have to compete against them” when they in fact don’t have to. they buy more players than NYC yet they are the ones with the better farm system. they are a bunch of lying, hippocratic, chowder eating, baaaar hoppin, caaaar driving, egotistical, whining, cry baby, roids poppin cheaters to ever infect this great game of ours.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Dec 2, 2009 5:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
the Yankees are not going to make a move until they've secured their own free agents.
I fail to see how greater or lesser evils make ’em not-evil.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
i still don't see how having the most money make you evil
if the sawx didn’t have the WWL & the rest of the press helping them spin their crap, they’d be a lot more hated than the Yankees.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
The Red Sox had a payroll 2/3 of the size of the Yankees.
That’s why people call the Yankees the evil empire.
(Insert Your Own Joke)
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Dec 2, 2009 11:42 PM EST up reply actions
no, they call them that because the sawx owners called them that
after they got Arod & their media pals ran with it
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
didn't the sox try
to get arod first? sour grapes.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."