The good and the bad of Ryan Franklin
by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 3:15 AM EST
114 comments
This year Ryan Franklin was an enigma. Thanks to a nifty .269 BABIP (compared to a league average of .300) and an 85.7 strand rate (compared to a league average of 70%), his production was far better than you would expect based off of his peripheral statistics. His ERA was excellent at 1.92; however, his FIP was a good, not great, 3.31. And due to a super low HR/FB ratio, his xFIP was even higher, at 4.23. Simply put, his career year wasn't so great when you adjust for luck.
What makes that worse is that he seemingly fell apart down the stretch. His low BB rate rose, his low K rate plummeted and his low BABIP got a little bit less low. During that time, he had regressed the pitcher he once was. His command was worse, his stuff was not biting as much as it usually did and his goatee had finally completely taken over his face. Obviously, that's what happened... or was it?
I have a theory that Franklin actually didn't pitch much differently than he usually did, it's just his luck and timing were different. I'll be honest, this is part of a larger study I'm working on, so I'm using you guys as guinea pigs, but I'll think you'll enjoy it nonetheless
What I did was take all of Franklin's appearances this year (65 including post season and all star game), and sort by wOBA allowed. I took the 15 worst outings and the 15 best outings from him all year, at least as measured by wOBA, and pulled the aggregate PItch f/x data for each group. I then took the two groups and looked at several attributes of the pitches, to see if I could spot any differences. For fun, when I show you the graphs and data, I won't label them, so you could try to figure out which is which.
First, let's look at pitch movement, organized by vertical vs. horizontal spin deflection:
For those who don't know, each dot here is being compared to a theoretical pitch without spin. It's from the catchers point of view, so from a RHP, fastballs will have negative break (towards the third base side), while breaker balls have positive break (towards the first base side).
Based on his stuff (or at least his movement) can you tell which one was the bad Franklin and which one was the good? Well, you're guess is as good as mine (actually I know the answer because I'm just awesome like that). As far as stuff and pitch selection goes, there is not much separation between the two groups. The only noticeable differences is that he threw more changeups in group 2 and his cutters had a bit more drop in group 1.
Now, let's take a look at how he located the ball. First, we'll check out his pitch location to lefties, grouped by pitch type:
The images are a little bit small, but you can click them for a larger image. Against left handers in group 1 he threw a lot of pitchers on the out half of the plate, as well as lot's of offspeed pitches just below the plate. He also rarely went inside on the batter. Group 2 on the other hand, looks a little more spattered, although he was able to locate the cutter on the inner half of the strike zone more consistently than in Group 1.
Now let's check his location to righties:
This time group 2 looks a little bit better, at least in my opinion. There are more cutters on the inner half, and more offspeed pitches down. Although, the distributions are very similar indeed.
So what do you guys think? If you would like more non-performance information, just ask me in the comments section and I'll be happy to provide it for you. I've set up a poll. The guys who guess right will be given 5 internet dollars, while the guys who guess wrong will be killed... sorry, that's just how it works around these parts.
At any rate, my conjecture seems to have been validated. Based on those two pieces of non-performance information, stuff and location, it's very hard to tell which is the good and the bad Franklin. This makes me very skeptical of managers or coaches who profess to be able to "identify" the problem with a certain player when he is in a slump. Obviously, in some cases when an injury or something else is present, you can tell based off of how he looked (I did exactly that with Lohse a while back). However, in most slumps, random variation and luck are the most likely causes.
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quite a marvillous article you did here
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
SIgn Adrian Beltre!!!!
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
yes Fist
"A great catch is like watching girls go by the last one you see is always the prettiest."- Bob Gibson
fisting
Can we say that Ryan Franklin fisted those pitches to the catcher?
by Notorious PSC on Nov 15, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions
KEEP IT ALIVE CODY
Keep it alive.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 15, 2009 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
Your "Fist" won't last forever, Monk...
(She said that… that one time)
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
what happens to guys who abstain?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
use it or lose it
btw tom, i may have inadvertently flagged your comment, oddly enough.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
You have to wear a ring
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
good read
but this really scares me. I voted for Group 2, although I did not see a huge diff between the two. So, if the two Franklins, two very different guys, are simply separated by the wet-tissue thin wall of luck then I am not optimistic about next year’s pen.
I hope one of those young guys has it in him to be a 2006 Wainwright.
The hero among heroes will be the statistician who can quantify luck and break it down for us all logical-like.
i'm already starting to pine
for a closer who makes his own damn luck, or is so freakin’ badass he doesn’t need any.
good stuff, VEP, but i just hope if you have any other pertinent information, like both franky’s father’s and grandfather’s right arms mysteriously fell off their bodies in their mid-30’s…well, that could kill our impending franklin-for-crawford deal, so how about holding it close to the vest for now.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
+1 on getting someone who throws a boatload of f'ing strikes in the pen
I could really get behind a Billy Wagner acquisition, but the potential costs bandied about are too rich for my blood ($10m sounds crazy high for a reliever who’s been injured most of two years and won’t see age 40 again, and I want no part of him if he turns down arby in Boston – not giving up our draft pick for a one-year signing).
I’d like to allocate something like 10-12m to pitching, and go about it this way – sign Smoltz to a $5m deal with incentives, and then spend the remaining cash on EITHER getting someone like Wagner, or on getting Carl Pavano to be our 4th starter and talking to Smoltz about moving back into the pen.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 15, 2009 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
Lonesome Road
nice statistical analysis, and I’m sorry to go rogue in my comment.
I’m not worried about Franklin making a solid contribution; he has the stuff and the temperament of an effective relief pitcher. What I don’t think he is (or has in him) is a bell to bell 162 game “closer.” (no worry, solution to come)
Also, the illusive ‘luck’ factor is, as I look back on ‘09, shadowed by the LaRussa factor, that is, the stubborn insistence (especially in Sept) to trot Franklin out there just because, just because. Some kind of it says right here on this paper that he is my guy, or the loyalty factor or whatever. Can we spell I z z y.
Even I could tell, sitting at my desk, looking at a magical pixel screen from 300 miles away, that the home for bats face of Franklin lacked confidence, or he wasn’t feeling well, or some damn thing.
My claim is that even tho luck drove his seasonal numbers to the good, ill usage drove them back down to the mean.
Help is not only on the way, it is already in fold. To me the top (key) priority for ‘10 is to sign John Smoltz and ask him (or tell him, whichever works) to reprise his closer role. Franklin remains a back up alternative, still closing at times when Smoltz needs a rest and setting up (7th or 8th) when Smoltz is the Mo Rivera guy that night in the pen. A beautiful tandem, and both stay fresh: closer insurance.
Lastly (for those who will argue that John Smoltz will be or should be a 4th or 5th starter) why NOT re-sign Jo-el for goodness sake? I have the Pontius Pilate view re the Pinata man: I find no fault with him. Not at that price, you say? Well, starting pitchers cost money, that’s just the way it is. We paid Mulder, and at times Carpenter, millions to do absolutely nothing. Also, as we break camp in late March, our 4th starter will be a kid named Garcia.
And thank you for your time.
I was thinking when you said help was on the way...
you were referring to Eduardo Sanchez… Why can’t Larussa just be open-minded enough that if this kid dominates ST, to declare him the closer? That’s all I ask.
because he has about 4 months of dominant pitching at AA on his resume?
I’m all for giving the kids a chance but that’s heaping way too much on him way too soon IMO. We’ve seen similar good half seasons from relievers who’ve then gone on to disappear into mediocrity for various reasons, it doesn’t (yet) prove that they’re major league calibre. Fernando Salas was Eduardo Sanchez two years ago and (partially thanks to injury, admittedly) is a AAA middle reliever now.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 15, 2009 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
Also
sanchez threw an insane (and, from an organisational point of view, imbecilic) number of innings last year, way more than he’s ever thrown (and he was still throwing them when it was clear that Springfield’s season was over, from what I recall). They really should’ve shut him down earlier if they had any thoughts of him being in MLB this year.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 15, 2009 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
good points
which is why i’d like to see the kid given a legit shot in spring training to make the club (maybe not when they break camp, but positioned to make a mid-season jump). why waste his arm getting minor leaguers out – the arm won’t last forever or get any better (i’m thinking of k-rod).
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
why not sign joel?
because we’d be signing the guy after coming off a career year that he is certain to not repeat. how do we win that contract again?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Nov 15, 2009 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
please don't take this as a negative response, cos it isn't
I’m just interested, because (and again, I may be mistaken), you’ve poured scorn on pretty much all the possible FA signings I’ve seen discussed here this week. What option(s) are you in favour of?
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 15, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
honestly
there aren’t many. and i promise my scorn spicket wasn’t intentionally pointed at you. i think you just happen to keep getting splashed because almost all of the FAs available this offseason are under it. and let me amend “there aren’t many” to mean there aren’t many position players that play a position of need.
as far as joel, i’m surprised that’s not the general consensus. traditional sabr wisdom tells you not to sign a guy at the peak of his value and with (really, even without) joel’s august and september showings it’s hard to not be certain that the pinata we know and love will more or less be back next year. so i’ll outline some of the most bandied about FAs from here
holliday:
i think the cards have a better than 50% chance of signing him to a not completely ridiculous contract. i think we’ll end up having to 6 years deep, but i think at that rate, we should be able to get him at 16-17 AAV. i’m okay with that. not the best scenario, but i think mo could do worse than retaining holliday through his age 35 season.
cameron:
probably too expensive for the value he will bring. he’s a 4 war player, sure. that 4 war player will want $10MM because he knows he’s a 4 war player (on some level, at least). but he’s a 4 war player largely because he’s a great CFer! we already have a great CFer who derives most of his value from being a great CFer. so if sign cameron, we either put him in left and he becomes a 2.5-3 war player or we slide colby over and (assuming no offensive improvement) he becomes a 1-1.5 war player. so either way you cut it, you’re paying cameron for an extra war that’s basically disappearing by adding him to the team. if he could be had for well less than what he’s going to be had for, i’d be willing to talk. .788 lifetime ops is nothing to shake a stick at, sure, but it’s not $10MM for a LFer good
nady:
not too shabby. lifetime ops is ~.800. sure he’s coming off tommy john or something. good buy low candidate. i can’t see this guy getting $5MM. i think it’d be great for mo to guarantee the guy $2MM and let him incentivize his way to 5.
bay:
fangraph’s war, you crazy devil! this guy isn’t even as good as mike cameron, but he’s up there in holliday-land caliber of free agents? the guys alright, but he will be wildly overpaid. the last two season he averaged a little over 3 war. pull over the car, i want out
figgins:
great! i like this guy. he knows how to get on base and he knows how to catch balls that are hit in the general direction of third base. hell, he’s even been known to throw them to first base pretty quickly after catching them. average war somewhere around 3 with a crazy 6 war season last year. due to be overpaid and we’ve already got lots of options at 3b. otherwise would be a nice signing, but i really think between freese/craig/maybe even mather we can find something resembling league average at 3b
derosa:
kind of split on this guy. he’s old, his versatility is not as useful to us as it was. coming of wrist surgery. probably want 2-3 years at $8MM or so per. i’d rather just offer him arb and if he accepts for some reason, fine. if not, fine
anyone that’s often being named as a likely pickup? what i would like to see happen most
closer:
rafaek soriano. see if you can get him on a 1-2 year deal for 7-8MM per. he’s a type a, so the assumption here is that the braves don’t offer arb. they very well may, but i don’t see them offering arb to both gonzalez and soriano. let’s hope soriano doesn’t get offered arb. so he’s not offered arb and we bring him in for that amount of money as the “setup man” wink wink. can we get something for franklin? surely there is some team out there that is willing to take his career year as representative of true performance and give us something wildly (or at least mildly) better than him in return. i hope so. either way, rafael soriano is our closer by mid april
3b:
freese’ to lose
lf:
allen craig platoon with (and really this excites me to an irrational degree) david dejesus. the royals are retarded. surely we can get dejesus for a bag of balls which is actually just a bag of mostly rocks with balls on top. dejesus is an .832 ops player against righties and someone posted craig’s mles vs lefties and it was even a little better than that. if we can get .800-.850 ops out of lf, then fuck bitches, get money. i might even prefer that platoon than holliday+holliday’s contract. dejesus is due $4.7MM next year with an ‘11 club option for $6MM($0.5MM). by then, we’ll definitely know what we have in allen craig
sp1:
jamie garcia. maybe boggs or hawksworth
sp2:
kinda split on who to sign. part of me says smoltz for 5+incentives (and i think that’s who i want) but another part of me says harden for 7-8. harden is coming off a down year, so he’s not likely to get much of a pay raise (he made $7MM last year). plus he’s injury prone and everyone knows it. john smoltz is also my grandpa. i’ll probably go with harden in the end, but then the powder is slightly less dry. but in this post, i’m going with harden for 2/16
bench:
murton – $1MM
counsell – $1.5MM
backup catcher i’m not too sure on. i’d be okay with bringing larue back, but there are a couple okay options like javier valentin that would be just as cheap, but probably hit better
so i spent about $25MM there and there’s still going to be enough dry powder ($10MM or so) for any midseason need-based acquisitions. either way, we’re pretty complete on opening day assuming a 25-man roughly approximating this:
sp:
carp
waino
harden
lohse
garcia
rp:
soriano
franklin
hawk
boggs
sanchez
miller
reyes
(sorry kmac[actually, i’m sure he’ll be there in lieu of eddie])
c:
yadi
larue/valentin
if:
freese
boog
skip/lugo
albert
of:
lud
colby
dejesus/craig
bench:
murton
counsell
we’d then see lineups of roughly
skip/lugo
colby
albert
lud
craig/dejesus
freese
yadi
p
boog
sorry for the holy shit long post, but i shouldn’t bash opinions and not offer my own and ended up getting really into this. feel free to bash, lambast, praise or criticize as you see fit
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Nov 15, 2009 10:21 PM EST up reply actions
there's no way i'm reading all of that
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Nov 15, 2009 10:43 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
okay
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Nov 15, 2009 11:01 PM EST up reply actions
i'm watching pulp fiction, or otherwise, you know, i'd totally do it
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
i'd rather give piniero
harden’s money, tbh, and/or i want smoltz back. (not saying there aren’t other options i wouldn’t explore over joel, just that i really really don’t like harden – for example, that’s a gamble i’d much rather take on someone like sheets)
i was for counsell for the bench mainly because of his left-handed bat, but now i’m not sure it’s that big a deal – though to tony it may be. so, if it is, i’m fine with counsell, but if it could be a righty my bench player du jour is tatis, and i’d like to know how mather is progressing and take him over murton.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Oddly enough, Figgins is one of the few guys I have no interest in!
I can see an argument for some of the others. I really like Rafa Soriano – I just wonder if 2 yrs 16m isn’t a bit too much. I felt that was too rich for Fuentes last year – now, I think Soriano is a better pitcher, but he’s also had a ton of niggling injury issues the last few years and is a long shot to remain durable over a 2 year period. Maybe if we can get him for 2 years, 10m plus incentives, I’d be more open to that. Obviously, this is all contingent on the Braves not offering arby.
Another guy I really like is Mike Gonzalez, who’s in pretty much the same boat.
re: Joel, I totally agree on the “don’t pay for a players career year” point. That said, I wonder why you want Figgins? His value has probably never been higher, and, unlike Joel, he’s been productive for a while, so I could see him being valued highly anyhow.
In Joel’s case, I still feel there’s a feeling that he could all be smoke and mirrors, and I think he’ll struggle to get the 3yr/$30m contract he probably deserves because of that (apparently the Mets balked at that price). He ain’t the pitcher he looked this year, but I think there’s more reason to suspect he’ll be above average than there was for, say, Kyle Lohse when we signed him to his current deal. If that’s the case, and no-one bites for 3/30, I think 3 years at an average value of $8m would be a good deal. Even if he’s only drably average across that time period, we’re making value on that deal.
A few other random points:
1) I’m not actually too far from you on most of these ideas. I like the DeJesus platoon option in LF, if they’ll sell him on the cheap to clear payroll. I love Harden if we’ve got the cash for him, although I have an irrational love for Smoltz. My #2 scenario (where we don’t get Cameron) is actually getting these three players, plus Troy Glaus or one of Soriano/Wagner to close if they turn down arby (a closer would be preferable, but, if none is available, I wouldn’t drop a draft pick to sign a type A reliever, so I’d just get Glaus or, in a pinch, Russell Branyan, who probably wouldn’t want to sign with us to play a backup/utility role anyhow).
2) I really think Nady will get $5m in this free agent class. He’s had TWO TJs btw, so I’d rather leave well alone.
3) I think Harden might cost a bit more than $8m. I think he’ll get 2-3 years as well. But I also think he’s really worth 2/20 to us, especially if we can go cheap on LF.
4) Re: Holliday. I think he’ll sniff 20m/yr and I think it’ll be 6 years. I just don’t think $16m/yr will do it. Boras is talking (and all the signs point) to well exceeding $100m. 6 years at 16m is only $96m. I think 6/18 may well be the absolute least he’d sign for. I’m ambivalent, really. I think there may be better options but I think he’d be an exciting player to have and make us a big time contender for the next 2-3 years.
5) I like Valentin – can he still catch, though? If LaRue’ll take $1m again I’d probably just as soon have him – at least we know he can catch effectively every day if Molina gets hurt. I wouldn’t mind a bat-first backup but I wonder if an all-bat 2nd choice could get badly exposed (especially an ageing one who may not physically be up to catching every day) and I’d absolutely HATE to see f’ing Pagnozzi every day. Greg Zaun is another great option but he really should get a platoon job somewhere (at least), $3m (at least) and play more than once every 10 days or so.
6) The Cameron/Colby defence argument is valid up to a point, but you do realise that “value” as calculated by WAR is position-specific? Colby probably isn’t going to be as valuable in LF as (even though he may be much better than average in LF than he will be in CF), the positional adjustment will knock off more than a win. And you made a point before (that may be valid) that he doesn’t play the ball well off the wall. Still, I just can’t see how he’s not going to be as good as any LF in baseball (perhaps excluding Crawford) and I just LOVE the fact that Cameron could be had at a discount, and for likely only one year. Even if Colby’s offence improves just a bit, and his glove doesn’t counteract the positional adjustment in LF (which it probably won’t) I still think he’ll be a 2-3 win LF, at least, with a 4-win Cameron in CF. Also, with a 2nd player (Cameron) who is a RHH and can play CF, we negate the issue of Colby’s poor hitting (thus far) against lefties. If we pick up DeJesus, the best we can do is play him instead of Colby in CF (if Colby doesn’t figure it out) and he’s a massive downgrade (against LHP) compared to Cameron.
The Cameron/Colby/Ludwick with Craig taking some ABs from Colby vs LHP alignment is probably more valuable than the DeJesus platoon (or at least AS valuable), and if Cameron’s only $10m/1yr he doesn’t cost much more in cash AND we can save on Lance Lynn or whoever we’d have to give the Royals for DDJ.
So Cameron’s still my guy, but I like the DDJ alignment 2nd best (maybe Holliday is my 3rd choice).
Also, I feel you’ve slightly neglected the offense in your scenario. DDJ would be a nice #2 hitter vs RHP, but we still have a horrible situation in the two spots ahead of Pujols vs LHP (I guess it’s probably Ryan and Lugo, UGH! Craig’s OBP in the minors isn’t that great as a MLE so I wouldn’t expect TLR to trust the #2 hole to him), and a guy at 3B (Freese) who may turn out to be more or less all-glove (at least at MLB level). I realise a run saved is a run earned, and your rotation and defence would be excellent, but I just wonder if we’re too unbalanced in the direction of run prevention in your plan – I think defence/pitching does eventually become a game of diminishing returns (i.e. it’s easy and cheap to upgrade the WhiteSox in that regard, not so much the Rays) and wonder if you couldn’t gain more value by adding a high upside bat or two. I’d like your scenario more if you maybe tried to economise somewhere (bullpen, perhaps?) and tried to add a Glaus or even a Branyan on a small-ish contract with incentives.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 6:46 AM EST up reply actions
Also
maybe Murton is unnecessary (I suppose he might get some CF starts against Lefties?! Other than that I don’t see where he fits in) but again, he’s a big favourite of mine so I don’t mind the idea. The same is true of Counsell – I think he’s bigtime under-rated (he could actually be the best defensive utility player of this generation, seriously – UZRs are sky high in basically every role and he’s been 35+ for most of the time UZR has been available), but I don’t know where he fits in. I don’t think he’s an option to take ABs away from Skip vs LHP, I don’t think he’s a useful LH PH option in the late innings, and (with Lugo basically free) I don’t see where his playing time comes from in the middle infield.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 6:49 AM EST up reply actions
a few things
with regard to figgins, i just said i really like the dude. i also pointed out that he’s coming off a career year and due to be overpaid. so, the interest in pursuing him is minimal
the colby/cameron thing. i was using the war defensive adjustment to calculate the 1-1.5 war difference for the two. the defensive adjustments are +2.5 for CF and -7.5 for LF. so that’s a win. plus you have account for the fact that they’re playing out of position, different angles, etc. so, i went with 1-1.5 just to be safe. don’t recall ever saying anything about colby’s ability to play balls off the wall. there may be something to that, but i really have no idea
nady may well get $5MM. if someone wants to guarantee him that, then let them. he’s not at the top of my list either way, but would be a decent option if cheap.
agree that harden is worth $10MM for 2 years. just kind of hoping that after a relatively lackluster season, we can get him a little cheaper
good point on valentin. whether or not he can catch long term is a good question and i don’t have the answer. but larue can’t catch long term can he? i thought he was maxed out at a bout once every 5 days or so
holliday. there’s plenty that’s already been said. as for what boras says, well, i don’t care. i just don’t see the market there to push his price north of $18MM. the yankees will probably resign damon. bosox bay. mets already said they aren’t interested. that leaves the angels, giants, braves and cards to my knowledge. only one big spender there. i think the cards can remain pretty competitive with a reasonable offer
murton’s spot would be as a pinch hitter/fifth OFer. you may have a point on counsell. with his best asset being defense and us being set on starters, it might be better to fill the last bench spot internally. i think it should an infielder, though, just in case and i’m not too hot on greene right now
as far as spelling colby when he needs days off, luddy is perfectly adequate as the backup CFer in my mind. i imagine he’d be just as good as ankiel if you could get him a few innings to acclimate to the angles and routes. i can see an argument for cameron, though. definitely not going to be pissed off if he’s signed for $10MM, i just think colby as the CFer and ddj/craig in left is the best option
and gonzalez would be just fine to pick up if soriano gets offered arb, just kind of hoping it doesn’t go that way
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Pineiro
it’s all about the benjamins. It’s liable to be a 3-year deal, which, with his new MO (no pun intended!) of Christy Matthewson Avatar, and his relatively low age, doesn’t concern me too much. It just depends how much it’s gonna be – something like 3/24 would potentially be a bargain. Might as well pay $8m a year for a #4 starter who actually kicked ass last year, rather than dropping the same sum on someone with significant injury or effectiveness warts. The mooted 3/30 seems just on the rich side for my liking.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 15, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
I guess JD wasn't here today
so in his honor…
SMOTZL FOR CLOSER
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I subscribe to your newsletter, VEP.
You’re tough on your guinea pigs. Tough but fair. Use the shovel.
The big year-end slide kind of started in San Diego… where the umpire wouldn’t give him his pitch. I kind of understood the jitters of the post-contract signing, which Mo, I may have to slap for, because dude, you do not stabilize a guy’s psyche in mid-season when he is a fuzzy shade of bullpen-CRAZY, and running on wiles and Yadier Molina — not even if he thinks you’re a good dude. But after that he settled a little bit, then the umpire pissed him off in SD.
He got back on the horse by playing catch with his son. Then he got squeezed again and it happened again.
Part of the slide may well have been mental. I think Frankie can be an effective closer the same way I think Jo-El can be an effective pitcher — only if Yadi and Duncan’s strategy is working, and only if Boog is on his game. I rather like this set-up, because it makes it a team effort and not relying on one guy to be an effective superdouche. Weaknesses are minimized (even if that means horrifying the world with a UIBB.) On the other hand, the opponent can adjust to strategy.
It’s not luck. It’s guile.
The goat-beard had growing pains. (Also, this roundtable with his splits show he’s got horrible numbers after the All-Star Break, huh!) He’ll settle. I don’t think we should expect him to be a conventional closer, either. I don’t care if he’s hard as nails. I care if he gets out of the inning.
What I’m really concerned about is whether the rest of the league will adjust to his combination of goat and guile.
quotes to follow… in that lovely gray blockquote.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
quotes
Because P-D will eventually yank this off the intertubes.
Franklin, 36, appreciates the support. The role is new to him, as is handling the challenges of late-inning failure. To some, forgetting the previous day comes naturally. To him, it remains a task.
“It’s hard for me to let go. My mom and dad have big hearts. My brother and sister have big hearts as far as caring a lot. It’s the way I was brought up,” Franklin said.
“It makes it hard when you feel you’ve let a lot of people down — your teammates, your manager, the people of St. Louis. I’ve worked to separate that, and I think I have.”
As La Russa’s poker term suggests, the stakes now increase exponentially. There is no cushion offered by a double-digit late-season lead. Every misstep is magnified in a best-of-five playoff series. The temptation to look down grows.
Franklin knows an arrogance that is largely foreign to him offers his best protection.
“Sometime in early September, I lost that arrogance. I think I had it for the first five months. I feel like I have it back now,” Franklin said last weekend. “It’s not an arrogance where I think I’m better than you off the field. But it’s when you think ’I’m going to throw this ball as hard as I can and I guarantee you’re not going to hit it.’ Or, ’I’m going to throw this curveball down and away. Good luck.’”
Franklin still speaks with Isringhausen, the Cardinals’ all-time saves leader, whose struggles also became Franklin’s concern while he served as a stand-in last season. Isringhausen never reached his goal of 300 career saves.
“I felt sorry for him because he was struggling,” said Franklin. “I felt I was coming in and taking his job. And I don’t care to do that to friends.”
The best ‘he was looking over his shoulder’ quote was actually on FSM, but it’s consistent with the following roundtable. (…..I don’t put much on splits, but those splits really are ugly.) I’ll be quoting Goold so no unicorns today.
Ryan Franklin conceded late last season that he was uncomfortable closing when Jason Isringhausen was healthy and present in the bullpen because he respected Isringhausen as the incumbent, the team’s preferred closer, and the elder statesman of the bullpen. When Isringhausen wasn’t there, Franklin was mostly fine as the club’s closer. You connect the dots. As with almost any reliever in the bullpen, it always helps to know your role and always hurts to look over your shoulder.
And this was not pixie dust, as others have claimed. The answers were consistent all season — it’s not that Frankie relaxed after the job was his, it’s that he felt more pressure after the contract was signed. And before this season, he literally did not want to take Izzy’s job. This year, no one else was gonna do it, so he stepped in.
Oh man, I need coffee. Working on the secret project (finally), secret message to mattybobo. Also the Glossary will not go through an update until deeper into Hot Stove. At which time I will probably add “nutshot”.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
the whole psychiatric thing is probably valid, IMO
and that’s a nice, informative post. However, I tend to subscribe to the view that that’s maybe only a very small part of his problem. Basically, his stuff is so ordinary that he needs to be absolutely inch perfect with it. He has no margin for error (unlike, say, Billy Wagner, who can throw his stuff up in the strikezone once or twice and the average hitter will miss it more often than not). Basically, Franklin makes a mistake, and major league hitters will hit it extremely hard. That’s his problem, and that is (I think) what exacerbates his “streaks” of effectiveness and ineffectiveness (and it’s likely not easily represented in movement/placement graphs either).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 15, 2009 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with this
in the sense that in order for his stuff to be perfect, he has to be mentally sharp. the minute he starts throwing to first every few pitches is when I start to mumble “It’s the bad one again… it’s the bad one… the bad one… make it stop…”
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
and I'd rather have adjustable problems than a hidden bum shoulder or something
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
something in the head
may be harder to adjust
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Man, I wish I were a licensed sports psychologist
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
i practice without a license
but i carry malpractice insurance, in case i really screw somebody up
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
that's what the beard is for!
keep up.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
so franky's not gay?
not that there’s…
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
don't question the man stew
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 17, 2009 11:44 PM EST up reply actions
I've been a supporter of this theory for a while
That is, the theory that he allowed the pressure of signing a new contract and the higher expectations that go with it to affect him mentally, because he wanted to prove to everyone (and maybe more importantly, himself) that he was deserving of a raise and an extension. I wonder if Frankie is just too much of a nice guy to be a closer. I’m oversimplifying a bit.
When I think about what happened to Franklin after save #37, what always stays with me is that interview where he sounded like he was about to cry and acknowledged that he had been performing at a level that was probably unsustainable, and this was just reality reminding him of his actual level of talent (again, paraphrasing, he was much more to the point). It was obvious that he was deeply affected by letting his team down and not meeting the expectations he had set for himself.
I don’t really want to change the guy, but maybe Carp could force him to take bad-ass, getting-motherfuckers-out pills or something. He needs to learn to turn off the nice, at least in the context of the game.
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
Maybe this would have been a better comment to link
You have to scroll down a bit after the first linked comment to get to the actual Franklin quote, but the first link provides context.
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
Franklin's bad streak
started when he signed that extension. After he did that, his surprisingly-good run started to leak oil, and it peaked in game 2 of the NLDS. I went from thinking that Franklin could be a great closer to I-don’t-like-him-as-our-closer-in-2010, mostly b/c of the horrific collapse against the Dodgers, but in part b/c of the extension. I thought the “Franklin sucks” meme died long before that collapse in the NLDS.
In his first 21 saves of the regular season (before the AS break), he blew only 1 save but getting the win. In his last 17 saves, he blew 4 saves and ended up getting the loss 3 out of the 4. And, on that terrible night in October, he pitched 1 1/3, giving up 3 hits and 2 runs.
Best moment I've ever seen at a game in person
"If it was Zoom Zoom'd, we'd be doom doom'd" - making fun of myself for my bad luck streak in the 2009 season
Looking forward to Cardinals baseball in 2010!
As Franklin spends the next two years blowing leads and turning back into the meciocrity he's always been
I can proudly say I hated that frickin extension the moment it was reported and railed against it (perhaps somewhat excessively) here. From what I recall, most people were ambivalent or in favor of it.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 15, 2009 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
At first I had no opinion
but as soon as he started losing it, I was all against it.
Best moment I've ever seen at a game in person
"If it was Zoom Zoom'd, we'd be doom doom'd" - making fun of myself for my bad luck streak in the 2009 season
Looking forward to Cardinals baseball in 2010!
i didn't see the point
but wasn’t necessarily against. i’m against it now
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Nov 15, 2009 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
it was the pointlessness of it that sucked. There was just… no justification whatsoever. It didn’t need to be done – we could’ve signed the same deal at a later date. No reason to guarantee any money before we had to.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 6:50 AM EST up reply actions
Am I the only one that thinks that the location on group 2 is much
worse than the location on group 1? On group 1, he’s narrowly hitting the strike zone, and on group 2, there is a ton of scatter.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
Also,
look at how much MORE the balls miss the strike zone in group 2 versus how badly they miss in group 1. In particular, the inside pitches look way off of the zone.
All of this being said, watch group 1 be the bad Franklin.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
The cut fastball in group 2 looks like it's over the plate a lot more
as well as up in the zone. The pitches in group one look more tightly clustered in movement, which I would think, makes them harder to distinguish when one is a few mph slower.
Then again, I’m a consistent critic of movement graphs so I have some windmill’s to slay in a bit.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
go for it!
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 15, 2009 12:26 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I hate wind energy.
/serious
I do love that comic though.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
I really don't know why you hate those charts so much
They aren’t meant to be informative, simply a visual representation of his movement. Some guys, like Harry Pavlidis, take the average movement of each pitch and graph that out, but I’m not confident enough in my pitch classifications to do so.
Perhaps it would be better if I showed the major league average movement for each pitch type?
by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
They aren’t meant to be informative
This is the part that bothers me. They aren’t meant to be informative but we (people/analysts/whomever) try and draw conclusions from them.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Yes
“His fastball has more movement than average”, “his fastball and curveball have a big movement differential”.
Sometimes Pitch f/x can be used for scouting. It isn’t always meant to be used to guage performance. Of course, in this case, I hoped to show how scouting can and should be divorced of performance.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
Azru- you may hate them,
but are they not informative when they are the comparison of one pitcher to himself? ie. the Lohse charts were quite informative, showing significant velocity and movement changes post injury.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
They prove that a change occurs
but we’re still making an association between cause (injury) and effect (results) without knowing what the baselines are. That doesn’t make the conclusion wrong but I think we often muddy the causation/correlation lines.
Let me reframe this discussion as “Of all the information, graphs and measurements that we can take from pitch f/x, I find the movement graphs to be the least valuable.”
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Okay, that makes sense
And your points are valid. I should do some work on valuing movement graphs.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 2:54 PM EST up reply actions
The problem is the most informative things are charts,
like pitch value and batted ball type, but the movement charts are so pretty.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
don't you mean
6, azru? (or has that meme died too?)
Best moment I've ever seen at a game in person
"If it was Zoom Zoom'd, we'd be doom doom'd" - making fun of myself for my bad luck streak in the 2009 season
Looking forward to Cardinals baseball in 2010!
I vote group 1 is the good Franklin...
just eyeballing it, it seems group 1 indicates better control of location and more precision with his pitches. I don’t see Franklin as an “effectively wild” pitcher; more that he relies on “hitting his spots.”
by Willie McGee's Twin on Nov 15, 2009 10:36 AM EST reply actions
did carp and waino
actually write those article on the p-d?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Great quote by Carp there:
For me, I love the competition. I want the ball. I want to do my job. I want to get motherfuckers out.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
man, what a shame Carp didn't get to pitch a second game in the playoffs
I think it would’ve beeen epic, even more so after that poor performance in the first game. Is it spring yet? I swear the only way I get through late fall/early winter is the schaudenfreude (sp?) of ND losing.
To me, it reads as though they did write the articles themselves.
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
my totally freakin' unscientific take
Franklin tends (I assume) to throw more changeups against lefties. He sucks against lefties. He threw more changeups in group 2. So, I assume that’s the “bad” performances.
You could probably do with including info on velocity of each of his pitches, too – i’m assuming someone with a franklin quality (i.e. crap) fastball really needs as much velocity differential between that and his other pitches as possible.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
The velocity didn't change
If I could I would, but it’s hard to make a 3d graph.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
Is there a way to make a separate graph
with a different color for each speed. I realize that may get cumbersome, but sounds easier than 3d graphs. Just an idea.
"The Cards lead this game tied 1-1." -Mike Shannon
Good point
But just trust me on this one, the velocity didn’t change much ;)
by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 1:36 PM EST up reply actions
Fair enough
just trying to throw ideas out… wasn’t sure if a solution was needed to a problem that may or may not have existed.
"The Cards lead this game tied 1-1." -Mike Shannon
well then, gentlemen
on both sides of the table: it seems the central question is whether or not Franklin has the “stuff” (take that word in all its meanings) to be a season-long “closer” (that is, the guy who gets, and is reserved for, most of the small lead 9th inning assignments).
I lean toward NO at this point, a significant reason being the LaRussa factor, namely his seeming disdain for flexibility re, if I may coin a phrase, the ‘pitching 9-hole assigment.’
The ’it’s the 9th, must be Izzy time, repeat, repeat’ works better if you have more of a blow them away fireballer than Franklin is. Izzy himself was something of a guile and luck performer, especially the last few years. Luck, oh my; I still carry in my spine visions of Izzy getting out of jams only because Albert or some other defender baled his ass out with a spectacular play.
I offer again my trench solution for ‘10:
Sign John Q Smoltz and make him the main closer.
Sign Jo-el as # 3 starter (why is regression to the mean an automatic loom?; why isn’t it possible that Jo-el has found a method epiphany and the right team fit to be, at worst, a Looper plus; innings eater, a few games over .500, usually give the offense a chance to win type hurler?). Many organizations pay huge bucks for that very thing, that’s just the way the market for starters is.
And then find a decent fielding left handed hitting left fielder.
With those things I would feel pretty good heading into April.
Oh, and the one negative need: bye bye Rick.
Jo-el will regress simply because of HR/FB rate, and he will be getting less lucky with umpires
Even if he maintains the exactly skills as last year (unlikely), he’ll be around a 3.80 pitcher when you adjust for those things.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
It's starting to sound like a bunch of Cub fans in here
with the sky perpetually falling…
"The Cards lead this game tied 1-1." -Mike Shannon
This is called for.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I'm starting to get the feeling you guys could ruin
all the beauty associated with March 14th… just sayin
"The Cards lead this game tied 1-1." -Mike Shannon
I tend to lean towards Pineiro + new, exclusive one-seamer/sinker thing = 4.00FIP pitcher
most likely. I wonder if his K rate won’t actually gain a little next year, from what I recall 2009 was actually BELOW his career rate. Obviously he’ll probably walk a few more and that HR/FB ratio can’t continue, but if he is a 4.00 FIP guy going forward, something like a 3 year, 24m deal would be something of a bargain, given he’s also been pretty durable.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 15, 2009 5:10 PM EST up reply actions
I could probably get behind a deal that looked like that,
but that’s not the deal pineiro is looking for. Given there are a few pitchers on the market who have never pitched worse than pineiro’s best season, and pineiro has only pitched as well as his best season once (duh), and that those pitchers will come cheaper for less years, I lean against another Kyle Lohse deal.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Yeah don't get me wrong
I’d prefer to spend that money on two years of Rich Harden and Kiko Calero. I think the next two years are our big window anyhow so I don’t mind going all-out to some extent.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 6:52 AM EST up reply actions
Is frankling only throwing one type of fastball?
The second movement plot sort of looks like the green fastballs are spread far enough across fastball/sinker territory that they might be more than one pitch.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
It's hard to tell
Looking at his 2009 data, it looks like he’s throwing a 4 seamer, a 2 seamer and a cutter. However there is a lot of blending. All of his fastballs have the same vertical spin deflection, however, it ranges from about -10 to +2.5 horizontally.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions
email it to me
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I want to know.
I thought it would be revealed in the poll box once we voted (not just viewed the results w/o voting), but I don’t know how those poll boxes are written.
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
Okay, if you want to know just go to this link
by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 3:04 PM EST up reply actions
That is not very surprising.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
But would the other one have been surpising either?
by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 3:19 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not sure we can proceed on this tangent without spoiling it for anyone who reads on.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
YES!
A WINNER IS ME!
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 15, 2009 5:11 PM EST up reply actions
now i know the answer
since i know what you picked.
btw, as soon as i read your comment, your reasoning was so astute that i knew you had it pegged. i was looking for something seemingly so simple like that (it usually is), but couldn’t see it myself.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Does anyone here know a good freeware program that works on Macs,
that can manipulate stolen video?
And how do you make jpgs?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I'm googling but I thought I'd cast my net here too.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Kyle said he would make a .gif for you if you emailed him the video.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 3:19 PM EST up reply actions
Actually, what I was imagining was a complete, non gif video of two pitches overlaid with some voiceover.
I’d prefer not to use gifs, so I’m looking for some way to work around or without them.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Okay, whatever you decide to do should be fine
(I assume this is for the Waino thing, right?)
by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
Yep.
I really know nothing about video manipulation, and I don’t have any video to work with yet, so I have no idea exactly which way I’m going to go with this.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I think you can convert MLB.com videos to AVI's
Jeff Zimmerman has a fanpost about that at DM I think.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
the voting function didn't work for me
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 15, 2009 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
I wonder how much the shape of the points on the graph is affected my perception of the distribution.
I think I see differences between the circles and the triangles and how the various pitches are bunched together… but I just don’t know of the fact that one side is triangles and one side is circles is impacting how it looks to me.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Yeah, I don't think it's having a big impact
But it might be having an impact of some kind and it’s hard to tell for me, personally.
That said, I guessed wrong, and I might just be making excuses for myself.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
racist.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 16, 2009 6:54 AM EST up reply actions
Next thing you know triangular men will be having sex with circular women
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
over my dead body
umm…yeah, that sounds weird
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
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