Some thoughts on Holliday (and potential replacements)
by BigMac545 on Nov 11, 2009 11:50 AM EST
Email
Print
I just want to start by saying that I think Bryan Burwell had it right in his article yesterday about the Holliday situation. DeWitt knew this was coming. He knew that Holliday was a Boras client and would test the market. If DeWitt was not willing to open up DeWallet and doll out the dollars to keep Holliday in red then he shouldn't have approved the trade. We all know that Pujols needs to be extended. We all know that we have other holes to fill. And we know that Holliday is going to make a boat load of money. But so did DeWitt. So, if he is/was unwilling to raise payroll by adding Holliday while accommodating our other needs he should not have approved the trade in the first place.
Furthermore, we were the third highest in the NL in attendance at 3.34 million and are in the top third in revenues in MLB. In other words, there is room to expand payroll. But isn't that what DeWitt has been saying all along? Has he not promised for the last 4-5 off-seasons that there is flexibility to add payroll past the 100 million dollar mark if an elite player comes along worth the investment? Well Matt Holliday is that player and it is time for DeWitt to put up or shut up.
That being said, I still feel fairly optimistic about the chances of re-signing Holliday despite the fact that the media has all but counted us out. However, if DeWitt proves to be the frugal SOB that we all think he is I think there are some interesting options that have not been discussed in these neck of the woods quite yet.
My first thought is this: Holliday is a type A free agent. This was nearly a forgone conclusion when we traded for him earlier this year. So, if we don't re-sign Holliday it transforms the trade from Holliday for Wallace, Mortenson, and Peterson to Holliday, 1st round pick for Wallace, Mortenson, and Peterson. I think this is an important distinction since the A's certainly would not have re-signed Holliday had they not traded him and would have cashed in on those extra draft picks. In other words, Holliday being a type A free agent is another valuable commodity. Think of it this way: we either traded the farm for Matt Holliday long term or we traded the farm for three months of Holliday and Colby Rasmus. Now, I know no first round pick is a guarantee and it is less likely that they will turn out like Colby has but the thought is (at least) somewhat comforting.
Now, what happens if we lose Holliday? Besides the sky falling I mean. Sure we could go after Bay, but from what I have been reading it sounds more like we would try to make smaller upgrades at multiple positions. One obvious place to add some power and upgrade would be second base. I know Skip made some progress defensively at 2nd last year, but he was still a below average defender. His outfield defense is average to above average making him more valuable in the OF. So, if the Card elected to move Skip to LF there are several ways we could improve at 2nd while potentially adding a bit more pop to the lineup.
1. Brandon Phillips - I know this is unlikely since it would require an in-division trade but MLBTradeRumors is reporting that the Reds are looking to shed payroll and Phillips is one of the main candidates to go. Getting Phillips would presumably cost less in terms of prospects if we are willing to take on his salary. He has been one of the best power hitting second basemen in the NL the last several years (He went for .276/.329/.447 last year and has averaged 22 HRs over the last four years) and according to FanGraphs had a WAR of 3.2 last year.That made him worth 14.6 million last year at an actual salary of a little more than 5 million. Pretty good deal. (For comparison sake, Skippy had a WAR of 1.2 last year).
2. Chone Figgins - Sure he doesn't have the pop we are looking for but he has been a really good player. Problem is, he is also a type A free agent and is getting up there in years (he is now 31). But Figgins has good versatility, mad on base skills and had a WAR of over 6 last year. Thou, at 31 I find it hard to believe that Figgins will be able to repeat his 2009 season. Correct me if I am wrong but it seems like scrappy slap hitters like Figgins decline rapidly. David Eckstein anyone?
3. Dan Uggla - Uggla is pretty much Brandon Phillips with worse defense and speed. He getson base and slugs better than Phillips (.243/.354/.459) but his WAR this year was just behind Phillips at 2.9 (defense being the main reason). He hasn't hit less than 27 HRs in any season and has had an OPS over .800 for his career. I know that Uggla's fielding is terrible, but according to FanGraphs he was better than Skip last year (-10 to -12) and would actually be a defensive upgrade at 2nd. Uggla is on the block and could be a nice fit in the lineup to help build some "depth protection" for Pujols.
4. Orlando Hudson - It was rumored that we were looking at O-Dawg last off-season and would seem to still be a decent fit. Hudson doesn't have the pop of a Uggla or Phillips but he is still a good hitter (.281/357/.417). I know he got replaced by Ronnie Belliard at the end of the season in LA but Hudson is still a starting 2nd basemen in this league with a slick glove.
5. Placido Polanco - this is sort of a homer pick but I would love to see Polanco back in Saint Louis. He is probably on the downside of his career but he can play 2nd and 3rd and and would a solid utility type. He had a decent season last year but I'm not sure that he is a starter anymore. Regardless, Polanco would be a big upgrade to the bench and has the added benefit of being one of Pujols' best friends (hey, whatever it takes right?).
Anyway, those are my thoughts for now. I didn't really have the time to look into potential SP, RP, or 3rd upgrades so if you have any other ideas please feel free to discuss.
79 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Not sure how many people are going to make it past this:
I just want to start by saying that I think Bryan Burwell had it right
MB for LF in 2010!
Was going to say the same thing
That article is full of lazy journalist goodness. Comments on protection, complete lack of understanding of what you get when free agents sign elsewhere, quotes Joe Strauss (!), etc.
Also, I don’t really understand the list above since it’s all infielders, and Holliday is not. Regardless of what you think of Schu at 2nd, we’re probably not doing much on the infield FA or trade market.
"But as the leadoff guy that inning, my job is to get on base and let guys drive me in." - Albert Pujols 8/20/09, base-clogger.
I barely made it past that, I got to this:
DeWallet
and decided to just scroll on down to the comments
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
yep
that’s where i stopped
and then noticed his alternatives were type As and largely not worth the draft pick or long shot expensive trades
way to fail
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Prophetjohn
Being a type A free agent in and of itself means nothing. It is only significant if the team offers that player arbitration. Look at the players I suggested:
Phillips – not a free agent
Figgins – type A likely to be offered arbitration by the Angels
Uggla – not a free agent
Hudson – type A free agent that is not likely to be offered arbritaraion by the Dodgers. In fact, he was replaced in the postseason by Ronnie Belliard. Furthermore, MLBTR has recently reported that the Dodgers are looking to upgrade at 2nd as is evident by their pursuit of Luis Castillo, DeRosa, and Alberto Callaspo. That doesn’t sound like a team eager to offer Hudson arbitration.
Polanco – another type A who is not going to be offered arbitration. As I am sure you have heard the Tigers are shopping a number of players to lower payroll. That doesn’t sounds like a team willing to offer arbitration to a player that is due for a salary boost to his close to 5 mil contract from last season after posting a WAR of 3.1 (worth about $14 mil). In fact, MLBTR is reporting that Polanco is more than likely to hit free agency.
So, when you actually look intelligently at my post you will find that only one of the five players that I have mentioned is likely to be a type A free agent that would cost the Cardinals their first round pick to sign.
Perhaps the problem is that I am actually thinking outside the box and not simply regurgitating what the local sports media and people on this site are saying. If that is what you are interested in go read Jeff Gordon and Derrick Goold.
To further prove...
Your lack of any meaningful argument, Buster Olney wrote (as recently as yesterday) that there are some very good trades to be had this off-season for teams that are willing to add payroll. He suggest that players and Phillips and Uggla could be had for little (in terms of players) if the team trading for them would be willing to take on their contracts. Here, take a look.
Perhaps next time you should take the advice you are so eager to give Brian Burwell and do some research.
I agree that John's dismissal of your post was unfair
but there is no way the dodgers won’t offer Hudson arby this year, no way at all. None of those other options are any sort of upgrade for them.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 14, 2009 6:59 PM EST up reply actions
whether he accepts is another matter
which is why the dodgers are looking at 2B – the draft pick required to then sign hudson would still exist, however, so you have to kind of read between the lines on that one, BigMac.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I'd forget about Hudson
He’s going to be a Dodger again next year. Maybe 2/20 or something.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 15, 2009 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
I don't see Uggla as an upgrade at second.
Here’s why: Skip got better as the year went if I remember right and Uggla has been bad at second consistently. So while Skip may improve past -10 I feel like Uggla will stay around -10. I realize there’s no way to really know if Skip will continue to improve but if I’m going based on what I’ve seen then that’s the conclusion I come to.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
I think people should be prepared for a slow off-season
Both Mozeliak and Holliday understood how this would unfold. Holliday’s move to the NL was a way to increase his value. The Cardinals used him to good effect. Now, Holliday looks to see what the market will support, while the Cardinals patiently wait with (I suspect) a firm, final offer.
The X-Factor is how much Holliday enjoyed his time with the Cardinals. Other teams WILL offer more money. How much of a delta will Holliday accept between another team (e.g. Mets) and the Cardinals offer?
Bottom Line: be prepared for slow movement. Jason Bay (and maybe Cameron) will get signed before Holliday. That’s the way Boras works. Then Matt has to decide whether $16M per year from the Redbirds is better than $20M from another club. We shall see.
I find it interesting
that you think Skip should be moved to LF and you believe that the team should go after a 2B instead of an LF. I think the team believes that Skip is a good fit at 2B, and I believe the same thing.
Best moment I've ever seen at a game in person
"If it was Zoom Zoom'd, we'd be doom doom'd" - making fun of myself for my bad luck streak in the 2009 season
Looking forward to Cardinals baseball in 2010!
i stopped reading when i saw the words
“I think brian crapwell had it right”
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
You lost me here:
I think Bryan Burwell had it right in his article yesterday
If you think that lazy ass journalism “had it right” then I’m not wasting any time reading the rest of what you have to say.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Your use of the pejorative DeWallet
Shows your bias. The owners have done a great job keeping this team competitive within the confines of this market. Since we don’t have access to their books we have no idea if they could expand the payroll without losing money. Furthermore, no player is worth more than the market says they are worth. Overpaying for players in terms of years and dollars to placate a certain overly vocal minority of the fanbase is no way to run a franchise. Burwell was wrong and so are you.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
Why not approve a trade
that helped make us contenders in ’09? Or is going to the playoffs not a good enough reason?
Now with extra feisty!
i didn't get the impression BigMac
was trying to be provocative – chances are he/she may not even be aware of certain feelings on some of these things.
the gist – that he believes the cards will retain holliday despite other speculation – may turn out true. i must say, today i am beginning to believe it like i did when the trade was made, i.e. they’d never make this trade without being confident they could resign holliday (this thought shifted me to only slightly opposed to the trade).
i’d be very pleased if we resigned holliday because that would imply we’re getting the kind of deal we could all live with, as i doubt the cards will mortgage the franchise for matt – in other words, he wants to stay and is willing to take a “discount”. Also, it would put a whole new spin on this nady talk – it would mean we are very serious about improving the bench (my pet peeve),
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Also, it would put a whole new spin on this nady talk – it would mean we are very serious about improving the bench (my pet peeve),
I hope we don’t sign Nady as a bench player. He’s not defensively versatile, and, above all, he’s not left-handed. Next year we’ll have Colby and Schu, and no-one else (unless we promote Mark Hamilton, who doesn’t currently really have a position) who hits from the left side. Ideally, Russell Branyan would be a better fit, IMO, but he might require a 2-year deal for $5m/yr or so.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 12, 2009 7:16 AM EST up reply actions
Also
The Royals are apparently touting David DeJesus. So long as we can fleece Dayton Moore (not difficult), he’s got a nice contract – $11m or so for the next two years combined, and year 2 is actually a club option. He’s a great fielder and has a great OBP and a bit of pop vs RHP (he can actually hit lefties a little, too, so I suppose he could take some CF starts for Colby if he doesn’t figure it out this year). I think if we go cheap on LF and use someone like Nady, Gabe Kapler or even Craig/Mather, DeJesus would be a nice platoon partner/bench piece.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 12, 2009 1:24 PM EST up reply actions
Dejesus is a good player
However, he is not an answer for left field. He puts up Skip Schumaker’s production + a little more pop, but not much. They moved Skippy to second because he didn’t have left fielder production. Why pay a platoon/4th outfielder 5.5 million a year?
Because 5.5 million a year could be a quarter of Holliday's asking price?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
DeJesus is better than a 4th OF.
He could hold down LF comfortably and be nicely above-average. Skip was above-average in his tenure in LF, and DDJ has a much better glove and a bit more power.
Skip was moved because we thought we had two left-handed hitting LFers who were better, both of whom turned into huge pumpkins this last season.
DeJesus plus a bit of Craig vs LHP (even though DDJ is actually not too bad vs lefties and could maybe make a few starts, or even occasionally have a crack at CF if Colby continues to be useless against southpaws) would probably (value-wise) be as good as we could do in LF without signing Holliday or Cameron. It’s probably better than Bay, as Bay’s defense is so awful, and it’s a lot cheaper.
DeJesus has (from memory, I checked the other week) something like a .385 OBP vs RHP. .385! We all want “protection” for Pujols – well, perhaps the best way to protect him vs RHP is to have DeJesus standing on 1B when he comes to the plate. Using Craig as a platoon mate against tougher lefties is an ideal way to ease him into MLB without exposing him too much (like we did with Colby this year) – he doesn’t have a huge left/right split, but he’s a much greater power threat against lefties and so he could probably hit 5th or 6th in the order against them.
Craig/DDJ in left would put up an .800+ OPS with plus defence; a lot more than we got out of that position last year, and more than any single option (other than Holliday, who would out-hit the platoon, or Cameron, who would out-glove the platoon) could do.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 15, 2009 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
you don't want to listen to anything I say.
I’m an idiot.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 15, 2009 5:21 PM EST up reply actions
gonna play devil's advocate here
but I hadn’t thought of moving Skip back to the OF, and going after an experienced 2nd baseman. so kudos on novelty factor. if we can’t sign Holliday, Brandon Phillips seems like a good choice. but I don’t think they will move Skip, I think they’ll let him progress at 2nd, and rightly so. sign a starter and a reliever, plz
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 11, 2009 9:22 PM EST reply actions
Wow guys
way to jump down this guy’s throat after he took time out to write a reasonably well-thought out fanpost with some research in it (something that’s not happened too often here in recent weeks).
FWIW, I don’t particularly like the idea of adding our bat at 2B. Uggla’s arguably slightly over-rated and will cost a serious prospect or two, and I think we could add similar value from the free agent market without giving up prospects. Hudson and Polanco are both type As and will (probably) both be offered arby – so they’re immediately out of the discussion. Plus, Hudson did so well last year that I think he’ll be back, and he’s not a big offensive upgrade over Schu.
Phillips I like, but his contract isn’t nearly as good as you paint – he’s owed $7m next year, $11m in 2011 and has a $12m option (with $1m buyout) in 2012. So we’d be paying him nearly $20m for 2 years (or ~$30m/3yrs). On a pure salary dump, I would quite like that deal, but not if I have to give up any meaningful prospects.
I agree that Figgins isn’t an option – Angels want him back, and he’s coming off more or less a career year. He’s probably due a 4-year deal. He might be just about worth it but he’ll be no bargain, and we already have options at 3B and 2B who are reliable.
So, all in all, I don’t like any of your options, really.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 12, 2009 7:13 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
It actually is a good little fan post
but I will never, and I mean NEVER, back down until the use of DeWallet as a pejorative is eliminated.
Carry on.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I agree that some were overly harsh in their criticism
And looking back at my comment i was a bit harsh as well. However, I agree with mattyfrommo that using the term “DeWallet” really devalues the author’s point. Furthermore, the author further devalues his point by saying:
there is room to expand payroll
without backing up that statement with any evidence. We can all make assumptions about what we think the Cards can afford but without seeing their books the fanbase has very little idea how much of the Cards revenue can be devoted to the payroll.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
I think the problem was the Burwell lead-in.
This fanpost is better written and researched than Burwell’s article.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
he should have used it sarcastically
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 12, 2009 8:17 PM EST up reply actions
felonius
for some reason i cannot reply above, so this is in response to nady. i also do not want him, AT ALL, but with these rumors of us being interested, i assumed it was to replace lego in left, which caused me to gag. so it was a huge relief to think that we were pursuing him only for the bench, in a misguided attempt to improve what was worthless last year – at least it appeared the FO had recognized a glaring weakness and were determined to fix it.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I dunno
I still think we’re a long shot to sign Holliday, and I wonder if there aren’t cheaper options for the bench.
Ideally, we need a left-handed bench bat. I’d rather have Branyan than Nady, and he’s probably cheaper.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 12, 2009 9:43 AM EST up reply actions
branyan
is a 1 war guy coming off a 3 war season. no thanks
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
I still say
If Holliday’s out of the picture….sign DeRosa for LF or 3B depending on what your spring training shows what we have in the farm. If Freese shows out, you put DeRosa in LF. Spend the rest of the money on pitching and maybe a guy like Atkins to hop around.
Then my Mark DeRosa fanfics would have a happy ending!
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Nov 12, 2009 10:58 AM EST up reply actions
Or
What does everybody think about going after Tejada?
No thanks
expensive, his offense is showing signs of falling off a cliff, and he’s probably only a 3B now (not that that’s a bad thing). I’d rather just sign a third baseman. I think there’s every chance Glaus or even Russ Branyan will have a better season with the stick than Tejada next year at probably less than half the price.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 12, 2009 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
Also
I imagine he’s a type A.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 12, 2009 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
Think it would
Take to much to make a trade for Adam Lind?
Yes, given he had a monster offensive season and is one of the Jay's best cheap, young players
additionally, I don’t know if you noticed, but the NL does not generally use a DH.
;-)
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 12, 2009 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
DeJesus
Assuming we lose Holliday, what about David DeJesus. Being from KC, i’ve actually seen him play quite a bit and my eyes agree with fangraphs. he’s pretty underrated and i think he could be a bargain.
Yeah I really agree with that post
DeJesus is a great option, because even if someone like Craig looks pretty good, we use him in a platoon. Craig’s MLE for last year (albeit in only 150-odd AAA plate appearances) against LHP was over .800 OPS (pretty slugging-heavy), and DeJesus gets on base at something like a .390 clip against right-handers, can play CF, and has a really nice glove. That platoon would cost about 5m.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 12, 2009 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
i don't know why KC wants to move him
but what would it take?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
given dayton moore's track record...
maybe not a whole lot. they’re just trying to go younger / cheaper until they can get a decent nucleus of young talent around greinke. i’d say we could figure out something with one of our decent OF prospects
I take it back (sort of)
If we use the remaining 11 million (after not getting Holliday for 16 a year) – like maybe getting a stud for the rotation/closer…then maybe.
the only reason I can see DDJ being a good option
would be if it intentionally leaves us money to go after Harden on a 2/20 deal. Waino/Carp/Harden as a 1,2,3 would be
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 15, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
BigMac 545
Interesting thoughts and I appreciate the time and effort that went into your post. The future direction of the Cardinals is very intriguing this off-season and there appears to be many different directions that they could go. I’m not as knowledgeable as many who post on here, but I am a live-long Cardinal fan with a few thoughts.
First and foremost the Cardinal owernship appears to have a new & more aggressive attitude. The Cards were more aggressive this past season and have expressed an aggressive attitude toward the upcoming free agency period. This may just be talk as has been the case in recent years, but it may also be true that the Cards are going to continue this new aggressive approach. I personally believe that DeWitt may continue to plesantly surprise us.
As one tries to predict the future moves of the Cards it seems particuarily important to remember that Tony is returning and that means the team will probably be built with his stamp of approval all over it. Therefore, one can forget Albert batting clean-up and one can also probably forget any movement of Schumaker. Schumaker is a good player who does a decent job in the lead-off spot and he appears to be on the good side of LaRussa, and quite truthfully, such status is probably deserved.
So with LaRussa returning one should expect to see Schumaker leading off and Pujols hitting 3rd with some type of acquisition made to provide protection for Albert hitting in the clean-up spot. Tony made the push for Holliday and I would bet money that Tony has some type of reassurance that every effort will be made to bring Holldiay back. That may or may not happen but the Cards seem to at least have a shot at doing so. Is Holliday worth the money being discussed – absolutely not, but that seems to always be the nature of getting one of the top free agents on the market. You have to overpay for the high cost guys and this year will be no exception with Holliday. If you want him you will have to over-pay.
Holliday was acquired because he was the best available hitter to provide protection for Albert and with LaRussa back at the helm that need has not changed. Maybe Jason Bay could fit that bill, but after Holliday and Bay no one on the market seems to come close to filling that need. While Holliday may not be worth the enormous contract that he is sure to get, his value to the Cardinals may well justify such an investment.
A lack of protection for Pujols means a ton of walks and a very unhappy player. It also means that the investment in Pujols can be a poor investment if opposing teams can simply take him out of the game by walking him. Why have a 25 million dollar player if he seldom gets the opportunity to hit. I may be wrong but I believe that the Cards have to pay the price to provide Pujols as much protection as possible. If they are not going to do so then the construction of the entire line-up should maybe be revamped.
I certainly understand that the argument can be made to spend the money in other areas becuase there are certainly other needs. However, this team is built around Albert Pujols and one cannot capitalize on that strength by simply spending the money on other good players. Having the best player in the game also comes with the task of trying to figure out how to best utilize such player and that surely places a priority on buildiing the team around such player.
Building a team around Pujols does not simply mean providing protection behind him. It has been pointed out many times before that protection means people getting on base in front of him and having a very good player who can hit for power and average behind him. Schumaker seemed to be developing into a very reliable leadoff hitter and I believe that Rasmus has a chance to be special player and do well in the #2 spot. It would be ideal to have the money to re-sign DeRosa and Holliday or to even go after Figgins but I think the Cards have decided to spend the money to take care of priority #1 and that is someone to hit behind Pujols. To me that is Holliday.
That would all be well and good if the idea of "protection" hadn't been more or less proven to be a myth
unless, of course, you’re considering the possibility that having a good hitter (like Holliday) behind Pujols, meaning he gets IBBed less, will make him happier because he gets more chance to hit, and thus more likely to sign an extension (or a more team-friendly one). Maybe that’s reasonable but I think it’s a little tenuous.
I’d love to get Holliday for less than $20m a year but that’s probably not happening – it’ll be nice to have him hitting in the 4 hole and driving in Albert but you have to consider the opportunity cost – Holliday this year means that we likely can’t improve our (potentially awful) bullpen, that we’re stuck with a cheap #4 in the rotation (probably Smoltz – no bad thing IMO), and homegrown 3B and #5 starter. And then in future years our hands will be tied from looking at other big free agents for quite a while, and we may have tough decisions to make regarding letting Ludwick walk, and perhaps even Wainwright when his current deal is up. I just think spreading that money out a little might be a better course of action.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 12, 2009 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
holliday aint getting $20MM
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
If the Yanks get involved I think he could
something like 7/130 is probably what Boras is realistically seeking. I think he’ll get 6 years and maybe 10-20m less than that, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he gets close to that figure.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 15, 2009 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
They won't get involved
Boras might say they want him, but they have Arb players to worry about, contracts that have expired, Austin Jackson is in the wings. Too many variables in the equation for them to get involved in my opinion
My halloween costume: the Indiana secondary iPhone- no matter how much you want to love it, you know the coverage area sucks.
-ChronicHoosier
They had contracts expiring last year
and it didn’t stop them “getting involved” with every big name free agent available.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 23, 2009 6:01 AM EST up reply actions
I think that "proven" can be thrown out the window here.
and here’s why:
1) Pujols begins hot and hits the crap out of the ball – everyone anoints him God.
2) Pujols begins to be IBB more.
3) Pujols’ #s fall off a bit because he starts to press and pull everything out of the park because he hardly ever gets to swing at a good pitch
this seems to happen every year (for the last three years or so)
If we can add the following, it helps significantly:
4) Pujols has “protection” because the guy behind him is a legit #4 hitter (and not Yadier Molina or Eli Marrero or something) and #2 begins to wane…thus #3 begins to wane…and #1 occurs more often.
5) Since this is the one you said – Pujols is happier and signs an extension.
the problem is, this doesn't actually happen.
protection has been studied and it really has no effect.
moreover we did this in 2009, and pujols still peaked early in the year – with a greatly limited ludwick behind him – and diminished after holliday arrived.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
yeah
holliday didn’t make 2 and 3 go away so you kinda argued against having holliday as protection, stlfan. protection behind pujols doesn’t really exist because there is no one in baseball the pitcher would fear more than pujols and thus give apu something to hit in an attempt to avoid the on-deck hitter.
i always figured the sox did it right – with manny lurking on deck ortiz got more to hit because manny was a better hitter, this really benefitted ortiz, and thus the sox. if we did resign holliday i wish TLR would bat him in front of apu because holliday could put up awesome numbers then (2-3 or 3-4 in the order, i don’t care). if we don’t resign holliday then whoever is our second best hitter should bat in front of pujols, be it ludwick or a FA or a player acquired via trade, so they and thus the team could benefit from apu’s awesomeness.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
definitely agree
but TLR will never move #5 from the three spot.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 15, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
To be clear...
I’m not suggesting we should get rid of Skip. I was merely suggesting that because he is a below average defensive 2nd baseman and an above average defensive outfielder that his value would be greater in LF than at 2nd. Also, there seems to be a growing market for power hitting second basemen at the moment. Those options (i.e. Phillips) seem more attractive to me than the other alternatives that have been floated for the outfield (i.e. Nady). Which lead me to the idea that upgrading at 2nd and moving Skip to LF would not be a terrible course of action for Mo.
I wouldn't mind trading skip if the deal was beneficial
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 12, 2009 8:18 PM EST up reply actions
skip might have some interesting trade value now that he can play 2B
and I think he’ll be better at it next season, he showed some signs of being a great defender, if he’s not one yet
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 12, 2009 8:19 PM EST up reply actions
in almost 1000 inning s at 2b skip’s uzr/150 is -8.5
in about 1750 innings in the of, his uzr/150 is -7.5
fangraphs war’s positional adjustment adds 2.5 runs for 2b and subtracts 7.5 for lf. skip is absolutely more valuable as a 2b. his .750 ops doesn’t cut it for a corner of spot
kinda the same deal as people wanting to slide colby over to make room for cameron
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Agreed
what are skip’s numbers at second after the first 250 or so innings? MUCH better.
I’ll take a flyer on Skip playing 2nd this year. He’s a good hitter for a second baseman, plays his role well as a leadoff hitter, and he’s not so good that TLR can’t hit Lugo for him against lefties.
the holliday talk always makes me wonder
if one spends $48m on position players in a given year
which line up scores best, 8 $6M guys, or
2 20M guys and 6 $4.5M guys (e.g., rosy type)
i suspect the latter, which is why i don’t favor signing holliday
almost as easy to pitch around 2 guys as one
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
I assume that you mean that you suspect the former
I’m going to run this through pinto’s lineup toy and see what happens.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
Ok, I did it
If you put in 9 league average players from the 2009 NL, you get 4.596 runs/g
Then, if you put 2009 Albert pujols, 2009 Chase Utley, and then subtract .20 from the obp’s and .30 from the slg’s for everyone else, you get 4.975 r/g for the best lineup, and 4.667 r/g for the worst lineup. This matches up with logic from simple markov chain analysis—the effects of adding a second great hitter to your first great hitter is closer to being multiplicative than it is to being additive.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
and it's not really as easy to pitch around two guys as one
it’s a pretty gutsy pitcher that casually puts two on, and an even more gutsy pitcher that intentionally loads the bases.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
or manager
like joe torre
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Even then, isn't there a hell of a lot of value to having two on
including a runner in scoring position, once every time through the order?
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
thanks, but
is it truly a markov chain? seems the present state for hitters is an accumulation of past states that you must choose, e.g., ba for the past year, month, career, etc..
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
the trick (or goal)
is to have 4.5 or 6 mil guys like longoria or gonzalez, no?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
yep
but somehow we don’t end up drafting many of those guys
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
we'll always have kozma
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Poor Pete
From the moment the kid was drafted, the media and fans anointed him a wasted pick. I’m still pulling for the day where Big Mac takes a visit to AA to teach him the magic of hitting more dingers.
by Mulliganstew on Nov 30, 2009 7:50 PM EST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Ask Alex: Will Julio Teheran or Matt Moore win rookie of the year?
- Ku Klux Klan, umpires and bowling: Why the minor leagues tossed out Jim Evans academy
- The Cardinals Hall of Fame can now be found at Bill Clinton’s library in Arkansas (Huh?)
- Will Bryce Harper start the season with the Nationals?
- Mitch Mustain puts football behind him, signs reported rookie deal with White Sox
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
