per fangraphs glossary:

UZR (ultimate zone rating): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined.

What you’ve described gets you to the “event” stage, but you then have to multiply that times the estimated value of the events to get run value.

Since WPA attempts to contextualize value, i think it’s fair to do the same thing when trying to consider the effect of that error. There is actually a discontinuity with the value of the event that Holliday was involved in- if he catches that, it makes it impossible for further events to occur. The event horizon is crossed, WE goes to 1.0, the game ends, 60,000 rally towels shrivel up and go into the rag bin where they belong. 18 cardinal fans are murdered at chavez ravine, but they die happy.

Sure, the positive value of successfully accomplishing the event is only “+0.04 WPA”, and the negative value of not accomplishing it was “-0.092”, but the result of adding that event is a WE of 1.0, which is a unique state; achieving a WE of 1.0 is the ultimate goal. That should be accounted for, and it isn’t.

Franklin also bears a ton of responsibility- I’m not trying to absolve him of guilt; I even voted for him in the poll, as I think he was more responsible for the LOSS than H. OTOH, H is also completely responsible for not winning.

I just don’t think the two are the same thing.

Freudian slip?

4th inning double down the right field line, thrown out at third.

As far as doubles, 2009 Regular season: Joe’s got 17 doubles in 304 PA, Colby had 22 in 520. vs LHP Thurston 4 doubles Colby 1 double 3 HR

But your response does tend to show that the player involved in the play does contribute to the VEB reaction. Colby is getting some slack because he is Colby and Joe would have been lit up for another base running blunder. I filed this one under a great play by Looney.

So, sorry guys. My bad.

A replacement level pitcher records two outs before allowing two runs 85% of the time. Facing 6 batters, a replacement level pitcher can be expected to record 1 K, 1 BB, 2 H, and has an 18% chance of allowing a HR. He’s also likely to get a ground ball or two, a fly, and another ball in play that’s likely to be a liner or fly. His fielders will probably get most of the grounders, almost all of the flies that stay in the park, and a few of the liners, meaning he’s very likely to get at least two outs, with a good shot at more.

Ryan Franklin got 0 K’s with only one generous swinging strike, walked two men (one possibly UIBBed), and gave up two hits on one fly ball and three line drives. His fielders were likely to catch the fly ball, but there’s only a 48.8% chance that they get an out from any of the line drives.

Ryan Franklin’s performance was not a particularly unlucky, considering his stuff and his batted ball profiles. He pitched like shit. Holliday screwed up, but he played well in the game otherwise, and most players are not likely to hit the homer that put us up. Most pitchers, even of replacement level, are likely to escape Franklin’s situation without giving up two runs. Most fielders are not likely to catch line drives.