RISP myths and the 2009 Cards

by tom s. on Oct 8, 2009 3:13 PM EDT Comment 15 comments

I really don't have any faith that anybody is really "clutch." I think clutch is more a myth than a real phenomenon. But recently -- and after a record-setting LOB game, unsurpisingly -- much muttering about poor performance with runners in scoring position has been heard. I wanted to throw some numbers out there.

The Cards as a whole have done well with RISP, hitting better with RISP (team OPS .764) than with no one on (.738) or with a man on first (.747).

Here are the stats with RISP for the top 19 players on the team -- below these 19 are only real bit players (e.g., Brian Barden) and pitchers.

1 Albert Pujols .361 .556 .697 1.253

2 Jarrett Hoffpauir.500 .667 .500 1.167

3 John Smoltz.500 .500 .500 1.000

4 Ryan Ludwick .323 .373 .582 .955

5 Khalil Greene .353 .419 .529 .948

6 Matt Holliday.317 .406 .512 .918

7 Nick Stavinoha .308 .333 .577 .910

8 Julio Lugo .250 .355 .417 .772

9 Joe Thurston .269 .390 .373 .763

10 Chris Duncan.231 .364 .397 .761

11 Yadier Molina .305 .404 .344 .748

12 Colby Rasmus .252 .304 .407 .710

13 Mark DeRosa .200 .345 .333 .678

14 Skip Schumaker.250 .353 .310 .663

15 Brendan Ryan .242 .302 .337 .639

16 Chris Carpenter .176 .222 .412 .634

17 Troy Glaus .222 .300 .333 .633

18 David Freese .286 .267 .357 .624

19 Rick Ankiel .194 .281 .245 .526

As you can see, our 3-4-5 hitters (Albert, Holliday, Luddy) have hit excellently with runners in scoring position. Even past those team leaders, lots of role players (molina, duncan, lugo) have hit reasonably well with RISP. Of the players with substantial playing time, only DeRosa, Schu, Ryan, and Ank have really disappointed.

Again, I am convinced that performance with RISP is more a sample size issue than anything else, but to say we haven't hit well with RISP is just not correct.

I can't find a month by month team split for RISP but our leading producers have done reasonably well in August and September. Ludwick had a weak Aug. (OBP .300/ SLG .296) but a good Sept. (.333/.536). Pujols had an okay Aug. (.452/.409) and a sick Sept. (.563/.952 - yes, that is a .952 SLG with RISP, not a typo). Holliday had the reverse, with an excellent Aug. (.341/.618) and an okay Sept. (.357/.405).

Anyway, there are some legit complaints about this team. Hitting with RISP is not one.

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Dang!

Khalil Greene .353 .419 .529 .948

"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter

by spants on Oct 8, 2009 3:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This shocker me as well.

"I remember once talking to one guy on the Cardinals and asking him what Pujols was like as a teammate. He said something that’s really special, if you think about it. He said: "Albert is so good that you feel like you let him down when you screw up." I thought that had to be the ultimate line that could ever be said about a ballplayer. I build my baseball team around that ballplayer."

by Smokin Turkeys on Oct 8, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jeez

Freudian slip much?

by Smokin Turkeys on Oct 8, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So you're saying we should've pinch hit smoltz instead of glauss last night

got it

by brackenthebox on Oct 8, 2009 3:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

nice post by the way

if we can keep putting guys on base like last night, you gotta like our chances to get 3 of the next 4

by brackenthebox on Oct 8, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cries of the LOBster

Everyone started noticing the LOB “problem” around early august, as I recall. I think that we didn’t have as many RISP before the Holliday trade, thus didn’t notice the runners in scoring position as much. (After all, there weren’t as many)

This is a non-issue as far as I’m concerned. Good post.

defy, cards, defy. hey logic --- you suck.

by effin fisk on Oct 8, 2009 4:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

why isn't the Hoff on the roster?!?!

pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels

by gdm426 on Oct 8, 2009 4:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

they still haven't found where lugo left his body yet.

the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus

by tom s. on Oct 8, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, like Lugo's gonna leave a body to be found

pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels

by gdm426 on Oct 8, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what might be interesting

is to examine their (OPS w/ RISP) minus their overall OPS. It seems like Molina in particular has a tendency to either drive in runs or GIDP w/ RISP situations. On the other hand, Holliday’s OPS w/ RISP is quite a bit lower than his overall OPS.

by nota bene on Oct 8, 2009 4:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i wanted to give some off the cuff numbers.

you could sure mine these numbers well.

on the “clutch-is-myth” front, i’d like to see how the career RISP numbers compare to overall career numbers for guys with several seasons in the majors.

i just wanted to give a brief overview of how people are doing.

the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus

by tom s. on Oct 8, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd imagine most guys are a touch better with RISP due to selection bias

If there are guys in scoring position, the pitcher is more likely to be worse

by brackenthebox on Oct 8, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you'll also see slightly better results since defenders will play closer to the bag

with runners on, pitcher will move faster towards the plate and focus on the hitter less, etc.

probably a small but real effect.

the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus

by tom s. on Oct 8, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder how small it really is

IIRC the Cards benefitted from that just recently, I think maybe during the last Cubs series….I think it was a hit-and-run and the SS moved to cover second as the ball went thru the area recently vacated by the SS.

by nota bene on Oct 8, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs