MVC! MVC!
by chuckb on Oct 4, 2009 1:03 PM EDT
101 comments
The real thing I wanted to discuss today is the most, and least, valuable Cardinals this season. Some players (ahem…Albert Pujols!) have been particularly valuable while others (ahem…Khalil Greene) have been colossal salary albatrosses (or is the plural of albatross albatri?) I’m using fangraphs valuation of WAR and value (at $4.4 M per win) and the players’ contracts according to cot’s contracts. Those that are most valuable, by my definition, have the greatest value minus the amount of money the team had to pay them. In other words, they have the greatest surplus value to the team. Those that are the least valuable to the team are the opposite – they’ve been worth the least amount of money when subtracting what they were paid from the value they provided. So, w/o further ado…
The most valuable Cardinals:
5. Yadier Molina – $11.95 M. Yadi’s had his best offensive season as he’s been more than 5 runs better than average and, when figuring in the replacement level adjustment and the fact that he plays the most difficult position on the diamond, has been worth 33.7 RAR. He’s a 3.4 win player, easily the highest of his career. On the free agent market, that’s worth $15.2 million but the Cards have only had to pay him $3.25 M. What a great bounty for the team.
4. Joel Pineiro -- $14.4 M. Who’da thunk this guy’d be this good this year. I still have no idea really what to expect of him in the playoffs but the very idea that he’s our #3 starter in the postseason is astounding considering how bad he was last year. He’s thrown 209 innings and been worth 45 RAR b/c of a 3.23 FIP. He’s become nearly a 5 win player – 4.9 – this season, worth $21.9 M on the free agent market. Unbelievably, he’s likely priced himself out of our price range.
3. Brendan Ryan -- $15.095 M. Like Pineiro, this guy came totally out of nowhere this season and, let’s face it, if he’d been the starting shortstop from day one, he’d have probably been worth nearly $20 M. Brendan’s been ok offensively (which is a big step up from last year, btw) but he’s generated nearly all his value from his fantastic defense. His UZR is 12.4 for the season – 2nd in the big leagues among shortstops w/ 800 innings or more. He won’t win the Gold Glove simply b/c of a lack of innings played. So – fantastic defense, premium position, league average offense – add it all up and it comes to 34.4 RAR or 3.4 WAR. He’s been worth $15.5 M but we’re paying him just 5 grand more than the major league minimum. Talk about surplus value!
2. Albert Pujols -- $22.2 M. It’s hard to believe anyone’s been more valuable than Albert this season but 1 player has been. He’s been 72 RAA on offense and just barely above league average defensively. Unlike Yadi or Ryan, he doesn’t play a premium position, which subtracts from his value but he’s still been worth 8.5 WAR this season. Subtract his $16 M salary from the $38.2 M he’s been worth to the team and you get $22.2 M in surplus value. He’s probably worth an 8-10 year deal worth $30 M per season. If we can sign him to a contract earning $25 M a year, we’re probably very fortunate b/c he’ll make more than that if allowed to become a free agent.
1. Adam Wainwright -- $23.3 M. He hasn’t been better than Albert this year but he’s only receiving $2.6 M from the team. He’s been fantastic – worth 52.9 RAR (and more than Carpenter due to the fact that he’s pitched 41 more innings ) – and 5.8 WAR. Along w/ Carpenter and Pujols, our postseason hopes ride on his shoulders. To me, it’s more important that we leave room in the budget to resign him at the end of his contract than it is to sign Matt Holliday to a long-term contract.
For what it’s worth, Chris Carpenter ($11.4 M) and Colby Rasmus ($10.1 M) were also worth more than $10 M in surplus value to the team this season. No wonder we won the division – we had 7 guys worth more than $10 M more than they were paid. With performance like that, it makes sense that we’ve had the division locked up for some time.
And now for the LEAST valuable Cardinals…
5. Kyle Lohse – minus $3.225 M. The first year, and cheapest, of Lohse’s $41 M contract was not a good one. He’s thrown just 117 innings and has been just 8.5 RAR – worth less than 1 win and $3.9 M. Unfortunately, he’s receiving $7.125 M from the team.
4. Nick Stavinoha – minus $3.5 M. Again…who’d a thunk it. Stavinoha was worth 4.4 runs less than average in just 91 PAs and another 3.7 runs less than average on defense. Add in the fact that he receives a negative positional adjustment for only being a corner outfielder and he’s worth 0.7 wins less than replacement level – minus $3.1 M. Fortunately, he’s only receiving the major league minimum.
3. Todd Wellemeyer – minus $4.25 M. 114 bad innings and a $4.05 M contract. Need I say more? He’s been worth half a run less than replacement level and minus 0.1 WAR. He’s been basically replacement level (a little less) and a small burden to the payroll – unlike #s 1 and 2.
2. Khalil Greene – minus $10.3 M. Sheesh! Ten million dollars wasted on this guy. I know we only had to pay him $6.5 M but he’s been worth negative $3.8 M this season b/c he’s been bad offensively and defensively. Negative 8.2 runs offensively and negative 9.3 runs defensively. What a waste! I guess it was worth a shot but it worked out horribly. I hope he gets his mind right and can enjoy life. Hopefully he can salvage his baseball career and turn into a useful baseball player for someone but, if not, I hope he’s ok on a personal level.
1. Troy Glaus – minus $11.25 M. I never figured this out from the beginning. We never heard anything was wrong until about January and then, all of a sudden, he’s having surgery. Then, he’ll be back the first part of the season, then June, then the All-Star break. Now, he may or may not make the postseason roster. He’s played a little 3B and had 31 PAs w/ a couple of doubles. He’s been basically useless (minus 0.1 WAR) this season but we had to pay him $11.25 M.
You might have thought Rick Ankiel would make the list. I did, too. I guess he can thank Stavinoha for keeping him off b/c Slick Rick’s been worth minus $2.825 M (his exact salary) to be a replacement level outfielder this season. Good luck to you, Rick. I hope you can turn it around for someone else next year.
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Of that list I think Kyle will have the best season next year
by Evilfrog on Oct 4, 2009 1:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm sticking with Pujols
His slightly above average defense is almost certainly just sampling error given the previous three years of data.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 4, 2009 1:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
as much as i want waino to win it
and as much as i can hype up the ways he’s better than lincecum, timmy definitely deserves it, it if it’s supposed to be the best pitcher in the league. cos he is
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 4, 2009 1:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Molina would likely move up the list when defense is considered as well.
It’s been a banner year for him thus far.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Oct 4, 2009 1:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Minus Friday, of course.
Which was really sad to watch.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 4, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
especially in person
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
by scoot on Oct 4, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
eh?
uzr doesn’t factor into fg’s war?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 4, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well,
i guess defense is kind of hard to quantify for a catcher
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 4, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see how Lincecum wins it
when he doesn’t lead in ERA, IP, or wins. I realize that there are many categories that better determine a pitcher’s worth, but those categories still count for something, especially when we’re talking about the BBWAA.
"I knew they were up to shenanigans." --TLR
by IHeartBoog on Oct 4, 2009 1:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
he does lead in ERA
or at least he’s ahead of Wainwright and I realize that most of the voters won’t choose Lincecum b/c they care about stuff like personal and team wins, but Lincecum deserves it.
by chuckb on Oct 4, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he shouldn't be punished beecause his teamates are not the best
but i really think Adam should win it. actually, i’d like Tim, Adam & Carp to share it.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 4, 2009 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Game stream?
Been searching the internet for about 30 minutes, does anyone have a link to a game stream? Can’t miss the final game of the (regular) season, seen it every year since I can remember.
by leefyg on Oct 4, 2009 2:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
you know,
sometimes I think about how cool it would be if a player like Albert Pujols actually read VEB. And then, there’s a post like today’s and I find myself really hoping Albert never sees it…God, I hope he doesn’t realize that by some calculations he is worth about 40 mil in the free agent market.
by mattyp on Oct 4, 2009 2:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pujols
doesn’t need VEB to tell him he’s got Cards mgmt by the short & curlies when they sit down to negotiate his future contract. They will give him the Arch, the Edward Jones Dome, the Landing, whatever he asks for. And he’ll have a lifetime supply of pie.
Seriously though, if the unthinkable happened (they manage to bungle signing Pujols and he walks), can you imagine the epic shitstorm that would result? Biggest fan freakout ever.
by nota bene on Oct 4, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That would almost be an understatement.
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 4, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll burn down the freakin stadium
possibly the entire city
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Oct 4, 2009 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'll be right there next to you buring the whole mother down
but 6ly, why would Albert want the landing? all that’s there is piss cover cobblestone street, a low class radio station & a hot shots right?
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 4, 2009 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It ain't what it used to be.
Which station is on the Landing? St. Louis stations don’t carry this far very well.
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 5, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
1380, apparently their signal sucks
but i swear i can get it in little rock. it’s fuzzy, but when it’s clear you can hear it
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 5, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You in LR?
If so, I never knew that. Glad to know of still another Arky on VEB.
by ArkansasTravs on Oct 6, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
who carried the game yesterday?
I was at the game and cusuamano came down and stood right beside me and my wife to interview matt holliday’s uncle. Was it a ksdk game?
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
by scoot on Oct 4, 2009 2:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
interesting summation
nice post, chuck.
I had some other crap to post but lost it. Basically, I wanted to point out that Jocketty can take credit for Pineiro’s contract, and that while I’d vote for Lincecum, I don’t think it’s “hands down.” IMHO “hands down” is Pujols winning the MVP. Carp & Waino have both had worthy seasons.
Anyway, it’d be neat to see a table like this showing the (performance – contract) for everybody on the 25-man.
by nota bene on Oct 4, 2009 2:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Mo did Pineiro's contract extension
Well, somebody other than WJ, at least. WJ was fired on 03 Oct, and the extension was signed 15 Oct 2007. Mo was interim GM at the time, and had been responsible for contract negotiations before that under WJ, so it makes sense to assume it was him.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Oct 4, 2009 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
nick stavinoha is one expensive chair
or was that Joe Thurston who was more useless than a chair? vivaelpujols, what say you?
by mattyp on Oct 4, 2009 2:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Carpenter deserves it
I agree with the guy from ESPN that said all three could deserve it, but, as a Cardinal fan, I really think Carpenter should get it. He’s had just a sick year and if not for crap bullpen help, he’d possibly be a 20 game winner even with the time missed.
by Mulliganstew on Oct 4, 2009 2:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think Waino or Carp deserve it more than Lincecum
SF’s not gonna make the playoffs, plus Waino and Carp have helped the Cards be where they are. If not for Waino and Carp, the Cards would be in a worse spot than they are now.
2009 NL CENTRAL CHAMPIONS!
by zoomzoomj88 on Oct 4, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
just to point out though,
making the playoffs and amassing wins (even for a pitcher’s record) are team accomplishments. Isolate it down to just what the pitcher controls and its pretty clear Lincecum was the best this year, with Carp and Waino right behind and still deserving of the Cy (in the sense it won’t be an injustice if one of them wins, just maybe not the most correct choice)
by mattyp on Oct 4, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
I don’t think it’s “pretty clear” at all. Carpenter’s nerdstats are just as decent as Lincecum’s.
by Mulliganstew on Oct 4, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no, they're just not
perhaps if you actually paid attention to the “nerdstats” or knew what some of them meant, you’d realize that Carp’s just aren’t as good as Lincecum’s. Keep telling yourself that as you pay the most attention to stuff like wins, though, while deriding others as if you understood half of what they were talking about if that helps you get your rocks off.
by chuckb on Oct 4, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
His tRA is about the same
But the innings pitched still aren’t there.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 4, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
comparing Carp's & Lincecum's pages on BR right now
I’m having to look for stats that Carp leads. HR/9, ERA+, WHIP, BB/9 (but not K/9 or K/BB), wild pitches (Carp-1, Lincecum-11 FWIW), pitches/PA, GO/FO, XBH/H%….but looking at it this closely Timmy has just had a better year.
by nota bene on Oct 4, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Deriding others?
Chill, man. Just because I disagree doesn’t mean I’m deriding anyone. Way to go for the personal insult though. If you approach the sport like a robot, you’re going to miss looking at situations where stats just don’t cover the situation. You can pretend that people are numbers all you like, but the human psyche and ability is far too hard to classify like that.
by Mulliganstew on Oct 4, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You are deriding people who use what you call "nerdstats."
People here do watch the games and root for the people. And then they look at the cold, hard facts and interpret them using formulas. I am not ashamed of my nerdery, but you imply that it is a negative.
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Oct 4, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm a nerd
Why would I make fun of other nerds? I’m just too lazy to say sabremetrics or however you spell it. I still say cold hard facts don’t sit well with human beings. We’re far too complex to be categorized like that.
by Mulliganstew on Oct 4, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This blog is sabermetrically-inclined.
So… I guess enjoy all the eye-rolling? Or, you could try to learn about sabermetrics.
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Oct 4, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or...
You could stop assuming my ignorance as opposed to my dislike of sabermetrics.
by Mulliganstew on Oct 4, 2009 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you dislike sabermetrics so much,
isn’t it ignorant of you to frequent a blog that is sabermetrically-inclined? Silly at the very least.
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Oct 4, 2009 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And here...
I thought this was a Cardinals blog…
by Mulliganstew on Oct 5, 2009 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's a SABR inclined Cards blog, yes.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 5, 2009 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and yet that's exactly what you did
I didn’t use the term “nerdstats.” That was all you, bud.
by chuckb on Oct 4, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What can I say?
I just thought it was clever. I’m sorry if it came off as offensive. I didn’t mean it that way.
by Mulliganstew on Oct 4, 2009 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i thought it was clever.
and it wasn’t hard to tell that you were saying it in a joking manner. Some people are hypersensitive, which is a shame.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Oct 4, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because the Giants offense is AWFUL
Lincecum should be docked credit?
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 4, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lincecum has about the same run support as Carpenter
And Carp has a better ERA and win total.
by Mulliganstew on Oct 4, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yawn!
FIP, K/9, K, K/BB, CG, Shutouts, RAR, WAR, tRA, pRAA
The only meaningful categories in which Carp’s ahead are HR/9 (0.4 to 0.33), BB/9 (1.78 to 2.72), and WPA (5.79 to 4.57). I don’t know why I’m continuing this argument b/c I’m not going to convince you so I’m done.
by chuckb on Oct 4, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Aah, but that last stat you cite may be the most meaningful
Its obvious that if you took Lincecum has pitched better in a context neutral setting than anyone in the NL. However, the fact the Carpenter has pitched better situationally (as evidenced by his higher WPA and Clutch scores) should be counted. The question is how much of that is do to him pitching well vs. defense performing well and how much Clutch pitching should count in your mind.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 5, 2009 1:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hate K/9, K, K/KB as states
when used to determine who is the better pitcher. Carpenter isn’t trying to strike everyone out. Lincecum is. Carpneter has the strikeout as a weapon. And he will use it when it suits him.
You know what is awesome about all three pitchers? None of them have walked a batter with an 0-2 count. A combined 218 PAs between the three of them with an 0-2 count. And Zero IBB. And 145 Ks.
Lincecum has 9 GIDP this year, A.D.A.M 18; And Carp has 23!! with 200 less PAs. Not suggesting we use that as a metric to determine who the better pitcher is. But does help my validate my point that you can’t hold it against a pitcher for not striking out people if he isn’t trying to strike out people.
by Evilfrog on Oct 5, 2009 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The point of including strikeouts in the FIP formula, isn't that strikeouts are "better" than groundouts
but that a strikeout will be an out 100% of the time (excluding passed balls obviously) while a groundballs will be an out 75% of the time.
The point about double plays is a good one, however, stats like tRA use the average run value of each event. So if I’m not mistaken, the benefit from getting a double play is already included in that formula.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 5, 2009 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"benefit from getting a double play"
IF carp was an average pitcher, and ground balls were outs for him with the typical frequency.
There’s at least some chance that carp is better at getting situational ground balls than the average pitcher, which might make his “skill” higher than tRA implies. That GDP figure seems to indicate there is something interesting going on- “luck” is an awfully convenient explanation.
Hit/fx will hopefully shed some light on this kind of thing…
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Oct 5, 2009 1:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Based on Pitch f/x data 2007-2009
The league average conversion rate for DP’s is about 10%, meaning that 10% of the time there is a runner on first, a DP is recorded. This year, Carpenter’s DP conversion rate is EXACTLY LEAGUE AVERAGE. The only reason it looks high is that a large percentage of his hits allowed have been singles.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 5, 2009 2:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Aah, I found a calculation error, I forgot to normalize for groundballs
Carp’s rate is actually 7.7% compared to a league average rate of 7.5%. No difference.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 5, 2009 2:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is definitely incorrect
it’s at least 8.1% – according to B-R, he’s had 23 GDP’s in 283 PA’s with men on first. And that includes K’s, sac flies, sac bunts, walks, hbp, ground balls in 2-out situations, caught stealing, etc. On balls in play it’s around 12%, but again that doesn’t consider how many outs there were.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Oct 5, 2009 2:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
actually, that's 283 PA with men on base, period
so it has to be significantly higher than the number i posted there, since there were 81 PA’s with men on second, third, or second and third with no one on first this year. I just looked at “men on”, which was the wrong split.
This year it was at least 13.3% GDP/PA with runner on first that didn’t end in SH. And that still includes 2-out PA’s.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Oct 5, 2009 2:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also
There’s at least some chance that carp is better at getting situational ground balls than the average pitcher, which might make his "skill" higher than tRA implies.
Even ignoring my comment above, I don’t see how you can say that based off 21 double plays balls this year. Talk about a small sample size.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 5, 2009 2:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I may take a beating for this
but I have always thought strikeouts are better for one reason: It is harder than hell to score a run on a strikeout. And that is the bottom line of what a pitcher is trying to do.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Oct 5, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not trying to deminish the value of the strike out
Just saying it’s silly to say a pitcher is better because he has more strike outs when the other pitcher isn’t trying to strike people out as much.
Carpenter has a game-plan. Lincecum has a game-plan. Both pitchers execute their plans to perfection.
by Evilfrog on Oct 5, 2009 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Except Carpenters gameplan has been helped by a .272 BABIP
If he was receiving normal luck on balls in play, it would be clear that his gameplan isn’t as effective as Lincecum’s, which isn’t being aided by good luck.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 6, 2009 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
carp's babip in his last 4 full seasons
2004 .280 2005 .282 2006 .276 2009 .274
Damn, he’s been lucky.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Oct 6, 2009 3:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we'll never agree on this stuff
but it’s fun arguing…
are you going to any of the games this week? Would love to buy you a beer.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Oct 6, 2009 4:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haha, no
No way I could afford/acquire tickets. Are you gonna be at any?
by vivaelpujols on Oct 6, 2009 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
AND carp has allowed fewer baserunners per PA
which makes that GIDP rate even more impressive.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Oct 5, 2009 1:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Game thread?
Or is this going to be it? If so, having the whole crowd do the national anthem was cool.
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 4, 2009 2:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It's also a lesson in normal distributions
Pretty much everyone sucks at singing individually but when you add it all up it averages out to sound right.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 4, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well said
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 4, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
FanGraphs WAR doesn't include catcher defense
If we sub in your numbers for defense an prorate them to a full season
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/8/5/978302/an-attempt-to-capture-catcher
We get Yadi at about 5 WAR, one of the best players in the game.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 4, 2009 2:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
that's badass
comment thread is very interesting as well
by nota bene on Oct 4, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Disagreement is flaming?
Bah.
Of course Lincecum should win. But, he probably won’t. Just like Albert should’ve won in 06 but didn’t.
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Oct 4, 2009 4:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bah!
Is disagreement flaming? No, not necessarily. I just knew there’d be a bunch of bullshit about wins and leadership and teams making it to the playoffs and “fans” unable to compare the 3 objectively. That’s to be expected, to a degree, but, as yet, no one’s made an argument for either of the Cards’ pitchers that didn’t revolve around pitcher wins or which team makes the playoffs. It’s boring. The bottom line is that one really can’t criticize a Cards’ player or even make an argument contrary to conventional Cardinals “wisdom” here w/o people flaming so I knew what was coming. Like I said, it’s boring.
by chuckb on Oct 4, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I understand that.
Join us in the game thread. I’ve missed your sharp in-game wit!
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Oct 4, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've made arguments before (in the other Cy Beltran thread)
That the fact that Waino has pitched much better than Lincecum with runners on base, should be considered towards his performance.
Both Lincecum and Waino have around the same innings pitched and ERA’s. However, Lincecum’s ERA is about .15 points higher than his FIP, while Waino’s is about .5 runs lower. Based on that, you would expect that A) Waino has been getting much luckier on balls in play, or B) Waino has been pitching much better with runners on base and in tight situations.
Their BABIP’s are identical, which means that Waino has performed much better situational (relative to his FIP) than Lincecum. Should that be counted against Waino? I don’t really think so.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 5, 2009 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ugh!
I don’t see how anyone can say Lincecum “should” win. He deserves to win, but so do two other guys. The statistical case doesn’t prove anything when the margins are so close. The three pitchers in the hunt are all above the threshold of deservedness. And once you clear the threshold, it really comes down to who you like better, who wins a particular stat you personally value more, or who you happen to hit with a dart on your dart board.
by abothecardinal on Oct 4, 2009 4:51 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
when the margins are close
that’s when you use stats to help you. And there’s a 2.5 win difference between Lincecum and the 2 Cards’ pitchers so it’s a little disingenuous to say the “margins are so close.” It’s just not that close.
by chuckb on Oct 4, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
WAR != wins
WAR is kind of a weird stat. It doesn’t actually measure wins, but how many wins a pitcher would contribute to his team if he had neutral luck on balls in play and timing. It’s kind of a hybrid between a projection and a descriptive metric. It’s definitely debatable whether or not it should be the only stat considered towards the Cy Young vote.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 5, 2009 1:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
Except I would say it isn’t debatable – it shouldn’t be considered.
I hate WAR.
by abothecardinal on Oct 6, 2009 8:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Goddamnit why do you people have to do this?
by vivaelpujols on Oct 6, 2009 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
walk away from the keyboard VEP
it’s really not worth it
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Oct 6, 2009 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I cared about WAR
Use what stats to help you? Stats based on a fiction? Not really a stat in my opinion.
by abothecardinal on Oct 6, 2009 8:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It should be Lincecum
(I’m intentionally staying out of the game thread, because this game doesn’t really mean anything it stunk).
I want it to be Wainwright or Carp, because I’m a fan. But if this season was played in an alternate universe and those three sets of numbers instead were Lincecum, Zambrano and Harden, we’d all have no problem saying it was Lincecum’s and would scream about the outrage if one of the other two won it.
by creativereason on Oct 4, 2009 6:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Or if Lincecum was
on our team with those numbers and he was denied the Cy? I shudder to think.
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Oct 4, 2009 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, yeah
But, I’d suggest Kip Wells get it over those two. I’d say it’s a toss up if it was Lincecum, Haren, and Hamels. But, since two of them are Cards, of course I’m going to pull for them. It’d be kind of sad not to.
by Mulliganstew on Oct 5, 2009 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Might as well be a homer b/c it'd be sad not to be a homer?
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Oct 5, 2009 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
yes we’d all like to see Wainwright or Carp win, but Tim had a better season and deserves it more.
Objective…
Objective.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 5, 2009 12:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You sold more sprockets for the company,
and made them the most money by far. But because the rest of your sales team sucked, we’re going to give the individual Best Salesman award to the best salesman on a team with overall better sales. Sorry, dude. Next time you should get a better team.
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Oct 5, 2009 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
but i don't wanna be a sprocket salesman!
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 5, 2009 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's no crying in sprocket sales!
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Oct 5, 2009 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I sell cogs
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Oct 5, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You would.
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Oct 5, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure what that means
but let’s go with it
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Oct 5, 2009 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I don't know.
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Oct 6, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You wouldn't.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 6, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's the great thing about sports
You’re supposed to want your team to win. I’m pretty sure that’s the point. I still think that the award is close enough that all three deserve it in one fashion or another.
by Mulliganstew on Oct 5, 2009 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wrong, wrong, 1,000 times: wrong
Carp or Wainer absolutely deserve the CYA. There was nothing at all groundbreaking about Lincecum’s performance. He was not Gooden in ’85, or Guidry in ’78, or Carlton in ’72. He was not even Clemens in ’01.
to the victors go the spoils. otherwise the system breaks down, and the center cannot hold.
’twas always thus.
by Grizzled Vet on Oct 6, 2009 10:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Evident the wash!
"I’m going to come after you." - Chris Carpenter
by spants on Oct 7, 2009 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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