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Skip's Lament: The Curse of Too Many Decent Players

While I was reading this piece comparing the Cardinals to the Phillies, I was remembering the old Bill James comment that one challenge of improving a team is not that of fixing obvious problems (like the Cardinals currently have in LF), but of how one handles the need to improve overall where there aren't positions that are obvious problems. 

For the last few years, the Cardinals have an offense that is increasingly built around Albert Pujols, which limits their ability to have big innings and can make the offense easy to negate. As the linked piece points out, the Phillies have more hitters who are dangerous than the Cardinals do. The Cardinals need a sequence like they had a few years ago: Walker, Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen. 

The problem is not that the current Cardinals have a lot of bad position players:

  • Skip is a nice little hitter at second
  • Ryan, if he can keep up his current level of hitting, has a glove that carries his bat
  • Molina has a decent OBP and a great glove
  • Rasums, while he did not hit particularly well in 2009, needs to play to grow into a good hitter
  • Ludwick (2009 version) was OK
  • Freese could hit at above replacement level

And so on. It's not like it's obvious that any of these players in particular needs to be replaced.

The problem is that none of these players are currently a strong offensive player. Skip, Ryan, or Molina, if they are the worst hitter in your lineup, aren't going to hurt you. But when they are amongst the best hitters in your lineup, you have a problem. 

This would seem like a difficult problem to solve. Plugging Freese into third doesn't solve this problem, and none of the free agent third basemen do, either. Putting Holliday in LF is a step in the right direction, but it doesn't solve the problem alone

The mistake is that the team reviews things position by position--the problem with Skip isn't that he is bad, it's that the team needs some great hitters someplace other than 1B, and Ludwick, Skip, etc., aren't helping. We've got to get some great hitting at three positions from among LF, CF, SS, 2B, RF, 3B, and C. In short, some decent players need to be replaced, not because they are bad, but because they aren't great.

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Display:

2009 woba, 2009 woba rank, 2008 woba rank

Third base: .285 woba, 29th (6th)
Center field: .304, 26th (4th)
Right field: .329, 25th (2nd)
Left field: .334, 18th (14th)
Second base: .330, 17th (12th)
Shortstop: .321, 12th (20th)
Catcher: .330, 8th (13th)
First base: .431, 1st (1st)

It’s amazing that we could go from having the 6th best hitting third baseman to 29th best, 4th best CFer to 26th, and 2nd best RFer to 25th – without getting much better anywhere – and only lose 50 runs from 2008. We were somewhat clutchier but still…

As for your thesis – that we’re only “pretty good” everywhere and don’t have any obvious holes – I think the woba rankings kind of contradict that. We suck massively at 3rd, center, right, and, without Holliday, left. The answer for a cost-concious team is to sign Matt Holliday, expect improvement from Rasmus and Ludwick, and either sign Beltre/DeRosa/Glaus or hope Freese can get us closer to mediocre at third.

That’ll put us back to 4.8 runs per game, which is where we have traditionally been when the sky doesn’t fall.

MB for LF in 2010!

by guayzimi on Oct 23, 2009 5:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

HFS©

ugly, ugly numbers, I had no idea it was that bad. God I hope Ludwick rebounds next year and Colby takes a big step forward. Still, I remain convinced that even if that doesn’t happen, we could nevertheless make a significant improvement on offense by changing our approach at the plate.

by mattyp on Oct 23, 2009 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting look at things -- thanks for posting this.

I do think that we need some better hitters at two key positions: LF and 3B. Holliday takes care of LF, but there’s nobody in the pipeline who looks like they might hit for a .360 wOBA at 3B, at least that I can see, and there’s really nobody on the FA market who can do that either.

Skip is probably an above average second baseman with the bat. Compared to Utley he looks horrible, but Utley’s one of the top 5 players in the league, compared to the rest of the league, Skip grades out pretty well.

Ryan will have to keep hitting to be worth playing at SS, even though he can be worth somewhere between 1 to 2 wins with the glove. If he can somehow post a league average wOBA for the SS position than he will be a very valuable player, albeit one that hits lower in the lineup.

Jury is out on Ludwick. I’m guessing he’s somewhere in between his 2008 and 2009 numbers - probably a .350.360 wOBA player who provides league average to plus defense in the corner outfield.

A key thing that I’ve found for great offensive teams is how many players they have who have a wOBA above .360. Most above average offensive teams are going to have 3 players above that number (min 100 PA’s). The Phillies have 4 (Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez), the Dodgers have 3 (Ramirez, Kemp, Ethier), the Yankees have 8 (A-Rod, Jeter, Teixeira, Matsui, Posada, Damon, Swisher, Cano), the Rockies have 5 (Tulo, Helton, Hawpe, Smith, and Gonzalez).

With Holliday, the Cardinals have 2, Holliday and Pujols. Then next closest guy is Lugo at an unsustainable .351, then Yadi at .337 and Skip and Ludwick tied at .336, just .003 points better than the overall league average for hitters, which is .333. Now, we can do a lot of things to remedy this, but I think that our best bet is try and re-sign Holliday at all costs. He’s one of the top 10 hitters in the game over the past 3 seasons and will most likely provide a wOBA of around .400 for at least the next 2-3 years. After that, I think you have to hope that Ludwick returns to semi-Studwick form (.360 wOBA, splitting the difference between 2008 and 2009) and that Rasmus makes the leap to the talent that he flashed in AA. High OBP, High SLG, and a wOBA of around .360 to match.

I don’t see us buying that type of talent on the free agent market, so we’re going to have to hope that these players develop.

One thing that you didn’t address, and I thought sure you would have after reading the first sentence, is starting pitching. It was great this year, probably unsustainable, but you wouldn’t look at our staff right now and say that it “needs tremendous improvement” — but we’re one injury away from having a pretty mediocre staff.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 5:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

It's not only our positions that hurt us

Our bench is absolutely terrible, we have to stop buying up all the aaron miles of the baseball world and get some decent depth for our bench.

by from First to Third on Oct 23, 2009 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

less grit, more talent?

Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Oct 23, 2009 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I honestly can't see Rasmus going any way but up.

He can’t possibly be as anemic as he was this year just due to the fact that he wasn’t healthy.
The kid showed us what he could do in the DS, wasn’t a great display, but a helluva lot better than his season was.

 I will take Skip at 2b. I think he will get better next year because he isn’t trying to learn a whole new position. This year is kinda unfair to point at and say that he isn’t what we need. I’m sure I will get argued on this.

 I agree with you on Luddy that he is somewhere in between 08 and 09. I’m hoping for at least a closer to 08 year next year.

You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.

by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 23, 2009 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Anytime I saw Colby he was awesome.

I think the key is I have to watch every game.

Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?

by ClemsonGirl on Oct 23, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He was even more awesome that way....

Having to watch Ankiel play CF was quite painful. Even though he wasn’t great, Rasmus looked great in comparison.

by DiscoJer on Oct 23, 2009 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great post!

If the Cards have any dreams of being a top team in the NL for the years to come they are going to have to draft better power hitters or maybe just better hitters period. If the free agent power hitters (Holliday) are going to be too expensive for us then we should be drafting these type of players…a little better. Drafting guys like Kozma in the first round is not the right decision in this era of baseball where the top teams assemble guys who can mash the ball.

We were REALLY lucky with Pujols….but this club has to do better in drafting guys that projects to having a major upside in hitting for power and I’m talking about even for positions like SS & 2nd base. Other than Rasmus…have we really drafted guys who have great hitting projections against big league pitching? Wallace was one…but we drafted him as trade bait….which let’s hope doesn’t come back to bite us too hard.

And if doesn’t even have to come from drafting players….What has really helped the Phillies was that they took on guys who had a lot of potential (Werth & Victorino) that were castaways or were injury prone players from other teams. Maybe our front office should take a few more gambles like these. We did in Ludwick and it paid off. I would like to see Mo & Co. do more of this. Yeah not every player will work out but you never know when you might get the next Ryan Ludwick or Jason Werth.

Boy a frosty cold Budweiser would be great about now"…long pause…then an "aahhh". --Mike Shannon

by KYCards on Oct 23, 2009 8:56 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

we tried taking big potential guys who were castaways...

some of them succeeded (carpenter) and some of them failed…badly… (kip wells)

by cardsforever on Oct 24, 2009 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Joe Mather

"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."

by cardball on Oct 23, 2009 9:51 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

wrist bones

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Oct 23, 2009 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i pray

you don’t make that his new nickname.

"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."

by cardball on Oct 23, 2009 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

how do you know how much juice I got

anyway, it’s true. I just observe and report.

like htf did I miss ‘DJ Tools’

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Oct 24, 2009 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

my heart is broken already;

you can’t hurt me any more, joey bones.

it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie

by SleepyCA on Oct 28, 2009 3:16 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i love that name.

the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus

by tom s. on Oct 28, 2009 3:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

curse you both

although it IS a good name, for the mafia.

i posted before that mather to me is (possibly) werth, and i was a fan of his long before anyone knew his name (werth). there is an excellent new article on werth at si.com/mlb. perhaps hazel or others can speak to the similarities of their injuries, but it took werth a few years to get to where he is now, after the dodgers had given up on him. i do not want to make the same mistake with mather, aka joey bombs, because he is right where werth was…and possibly better hereafter.

"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."

by cardball on Oct 28, 2009 6:13 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

no reason to give up on him. he's not worth anything to us in a trade.

it costs us league minimum to keep him around. he’s not blocking any great prospects. but i just am going to wait until i see signs he’s got his power back before i anticipate great stuff from him.

the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus

by tom s. on Oct 28, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

why

did walt not go after werth when he was a fa

seems we got juan e instead

"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension

by sportsman on Oct 30, 2009 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good Post

I agree that the Cards have several good players but only one great player. I also believe that the way the current team is constructed that they cannot compete with the big boys if they don’t upgrade.

The focus of your post and the needed upgrades that have been discussed in additional comments has been on need for offensive upgrades. One cannot argue against upgrading offensively but I think the lack of speed and defense may be this teams most pressing problems.

I don’t have to remind any true Cardinal fan how the Cards use to win with speed and defense. I remember the years when I simply hoped that the Cards could find just one guy who had the potential to hit 20 HR’s. Remember the Jack Clark days? Those teams had very little power hitting but they had speed and they played great defense and they won.

To make a long story short, I firmly believe that the Cards have got to get better defensively and they have to add speed. Pujols is great but there is entirely to much focus on Pujols and there is not nearly enough focus on speed and defense. This team has above average speed in only two positions, Rasmus in CF and Ryan at SS and neither of those guys are anywhere close to being an intimidating speed guy once they get on base.

  

by Warcard on Oct 24, 2009 9:51 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

why does speed matter so much

Tony is not going to bring back anything resembling a running game. After 15 years, that should be obvious to all.

Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Oct 25, 2009 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I want to first off say I dont think that this team is "cheap"

but this is the partially the result of “well this player is almost as good as this player…” and going with the cheaper alternative, weather its from the system of FA.

When you do that enough times it whittles down your overall talent.
but this has been coming for a long time

i dont blame them with the rising cost of FA’s though you cant field a 2004 Cards offense and have an 80-100 payroll (easily)

by jealousblues on Oct 25, 2009 5:43 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The mistake is that the team reviews things position by position—the problem with Skip isn’t that he is bad, it’s that the team needs some great hitters someplace other than 1B, and Ludwick, Skip, etc., aren’t helping. We’ve got to get some great hitting at three positions from among LF, CF, SS, 2B, RF, 3B, and C. In short, some decent players need to be replaced, not because they are bad, but because they aren’t great.

I agree with this, but what the hell do I know.
In todays game it seems your 1b, 3b, LF and RF HAVE to be strong power hitters…
and the best teams have very good hitters with some pop at SS and/or 2b too.

Skip, Ryan
Utley, Rollins
Cano, Jeter
Hudson/Belly, Furcal
Stewart?, Tulowitzki
Pedroia, whoever they play at 2b

the best teams have at least one real weapon at these positions and the best of the best have two
either a power guy or a real speed guy, we dont really have either…
but like the OP said they are good players, just not impact guys

When you start putting Freese at 3b its just going to get worse (unless we think he is going to hit 25HR in his rookie year).

by jealousblues on Oct 25, 2009 5:51 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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