Bill James and Pitchers
by DanUpBaby on Oct 23, 2009 6:00 AM EDT
364 comments
I think we, as a community of worriers, are relatively pat about the offense—if anything bad were to happen, be it Pujols missing a chunk of time; Rasmus continuing to be Ramos; or the Cardinals seriously going into the 2010 season with Skip Schumaker and Allen Craig dueling for the chance to be the team's fourth best hitter, it would come as a terrible shock.
But the pitchers... well, they were too good last year. I am expecting any and all things to happen this year to make up Joel Pineiro's completely unexpected and not-quite-long-enough trip into the dead ball era, and that's without even considering Chris Carpenter's career high ERA+ as a 34 year-old double-amputee outpatient. No amount of Todd Wellemeyer returning everything that made me briefly think he wasn't Todd Wellemeyer can make up for all that, and as a result I have my GOB expectations set to maximum vengeance.
That said, here's what the Bill James people think.
| NAME | G | IP | H | HR | BB | K | W | L | ERA |
| Chris Carpenter | 28 | 195 | 169 | 13 | 42 | 154 | 16 | 6 | 2.95 |
| Adam Wainwright | 34 | 225 | 222 | 18 | 66 | 178 | 15 | 10 | 3.64 |
| Kyle Lohse | 24 | 118 | 128 | 14 | 36 | 72 | 6 | 7 | 4.35 |
| John Smoltz | 10 | 50 | 48 | 5 | 11 | 45 | 3 | 2 | 3.42 |
| Joel Pineiro | 33 | 205 | 224 | 22 | 53 | 118 | 12 | 11 | 4.17 |
| Mitchell Boggs | 22 | 75 | 85 | 7 | 36 | 50 | 3 | 5 | 5.40 |
| Ryan Franklin | 62 | 61 | 62 | 8 | 19 | 33 | 4 | 3 | 4.13 |
| Jason Motte | 65 | 56 | 49 | 6 | 24 | 68 | 4 | 3 | 3.54 |
| Trever Miller | 74 | 46 | 40 | 5 | 18 | 45 | 3 | 2 | 3.72 |
| Dennys Reyes | 74 | 46 | 44 | 3 | 22 | 38 | 3 | 2 | 3.91 |
| Rich Harden | 24 | 135 | 107 | 14 | 59 | 147 | 10 | 5 | 3.33 |
| Erik Bedard | 15 | 88 | 78 | 8 | 35 | 87 | 5 | 5 | 3.58 |
| Justin Duchscherer | 23 | 151 | 131 | 13 | 38 | 113 | 10 | 6 | 3.16 |
| Brett Myers | 27 | 171 | 172 | 27 | 59 | 147 | 9 | 10 | 4.37 |
| Randy Johnson | 18 | 54 | 50 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 3 | 3 | 3.63 |
| Blake Hawksworth | 43 | 54 | 59 | 7 | 20 | 38 | 3 | 3 | 5.00 |
| Tim Hudson | 24 | 146 | 147 | 11 | 41 | 89 | 10 | 6 | 3.64 |
| Clay Mortensen | 12 | 57 | 65 | 8 | 25 | 39 | 2 | 5 | 5.84 |
| Chris Perez | 61 | 63 | 46 | 7 | 37 | 76 | 4 | 3 | 3.57 |
1. I'll take that Chris Carpenter projection. Just make that happen.
2. He and Jason Motte are the only Cardinals this projection system likes at all. It doesn't buy Adam Wainwright's strikeout rate, The Piñata's secret identity, or Ryan Franklin's magic goatee, let alone Blake Hawksworth's trip to relief—the projection is so bad that I, uh, forgot to include it until halfway through the free agents.
3. Lots of interesting, dinged up fourth starter options for the Cardinals to paw through. Unfortunately nothing projected for "Sign" Ben Sheets.
4. I'm trying to ascribe some of it to shock value and be moderate, but Mitchell-Boggs-the-reliever was a startling transformation; as a starter he looks like Jason Marquis, but as a reliever he flashed a preternatural grasp of the Chris Perez skill-set: diving slider, remarkable fastball (seriously, where did this come from?), unexplainable command. It's stupid to use the results-not-typical success stories as a comp, but I'll do it anyway: the Joe Nathans of the world have to come from somewhere.
5. If Mortensen were ready yet—that would be the moment I knew I was a sinner in the hands of some angry GOB.
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Franklin's projection is disgusting
by vivaelpujols on Oct 23, 2009 7:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Carpenter and Waino Aside....
…they all look disgusting. According to Bill James everyone is either mediocre or sucks. This is why I ignore ‘projections’, ‘cause in real life you just don’t know enough about what will happen.
:=8/
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
by The MooCow on Oct 23, 2009 7:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you can try and ignore the lack of talent
and yes, luck may make their performance better than their talent level. but its clear upgrades need to be made.
by FunkeeC on Oct 23, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You seriously think Wainwright will regress?
This is why projections are bullcrap.
by Mulliganstew on Oct 23, 2009 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wainwright has never pitched nearly as well as he has in 2009.
his era outshone his FIP by quite a bit — about half a run. he’s due for a little regression.
if you had asked me off the top of my head to guess at his era for 2010, i would have said 3.50. he’s a great pitcher, but he’s not yet shown that he’s an every-year-a-cy-young-contender pitcher.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 23, 2009 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no cardinals fan takes A.D.A.M.'s name in vain
take it back sir before you know who finds out.
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 23, 2009 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he's got a beautiful tipped pitch.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 23, 2009 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but he's shown that he has it in him
for three straight years. i understand how the projections work and why he’s projected as he is, but the projection is just sticking numbers into an equation. no circumstances are taken into account. i think he’ll regress, mainly because if the fip/era split, but i think he’s still at the age that he can continue to improve. i see an era around 3.10 at the end of next year
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 24, 2009 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i disagree
Waino was arguably the best pitcher in baseball during the 2nd half.
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 24, 2009 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Wins" and "Losses"
How would you even project this? It’s so offense-dependent. James & Co. include W/L? How? Even if one does it based on the everyday players’ offensive projections, there are still bizarrely low run support totals for certain pitchers in a given month or even season. (It’s a good thing that Steve Phillips has no soapbox from which to provide me with a reason as to why this is.) All of this is a roundabout way of asking how on earth Carp is given 6 losses, Wainwright 10, and Pineiro 11? What?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 23, 2009 7:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Most of those numbers have some context
be it the team offense (W/L), team defense (H,ERA), or managerial discretion (IP). I’d imagine some amount of that context is included in these projections, but even if not, it doesn’t preclude one from making an educated guess, it just increases the expected error.
by brackenthebox on Oct 23, 2009 7:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Both germane & funny:
About 140 years ago George Custer decided to keep his scouting team in tact as he approached the Little Big Horn River.
I think this comment was made by our very own akaitori on Goold’s bullpen piece for the STL P-D. I do worry about our bullpen (McClellan & Hawksworth still don’t seem like good relievers to me) but I know the Cardinals are disinclined to give guys like Fernando Salas and Eduardo Sanchez a chance next year.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Oct 23, 2009 8:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Smoltzie's numbers
look like a closer, except for that first column.
And no John Lackey? Boo. Although now I’m curious to see his projections.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 23, 2009 8:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Tidbits
- If that’s the Chris Carpenter we get next year, I like our chances in the division.
- If that’s the Adam Wainwright we get next year, I’ll eat poopy Cheerios.
- Um, sign Justin Duchscherer? Naw, doesn’t have the same ring to it as “Ben Sheets”.
- Mitch Boggs, 2nd half 2009 = Kyle McClellan, 1st Half 2007. I don’t trust it.
- The left side of the bullpen looks ok, but it looks like Bill doesn’t expect much of Trever, or he expects TLR to use him against a lot more righties in 2009.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 8:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
SIGN JUST DUCSH?
Doesn’t really work either.
by brackenthebox on Oct 23, 2009 8:56 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
"JUST DUCSH"
Sounds like a Summer’s Eve ad campaign…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Sounds like a Brewers mantra...
"The Cards lead this game tied 1-1." -Mike Shannon
by ducttape16 on Oct 23, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i don't want a guy who played in oakland(a pitchers park) and three only ~88mph before
shoulder(i think) surgery.
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 23, 2009 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
*threw not three
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 23, 2009 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rule 5
but you get to ride the cars on opening day
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 24, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
league minimum
and first class accomodations OK, Duke?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 24, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll play for free
and happy to travel Greyhound to cut down on costs.
Just win
by The Duke on Oct 24, 2009 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Poopy Cheerios
I put them behind Honey Nut and Apple Cinnamon, but ahead of those yogurt covered things.
"Baseball has been good to me since I quit trying to play it." - Whitey Herzog
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Oct 23, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about the Frosted Cheerios?
Or even normal Cheerios, multi grain Cheerios, fruit Cheerios etc… You can’t give us power rankings without including all of them
"The Cards lead this game tied 1-1." -Mike Shannon
by ducttape16 on Oct 23, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh yeah, forgot about the Fruity ones.
OK, here’s the rankings (based on the hypothetical, and purely subjective wDA*):
1. Fruity
2. Banana Nut
3. Honey Nut
4. Apple Cinnamon
5. Berry Burst
6. Frosted
7. Original (only with lots of sugar)
8. Multi-grain
9. Poopy
10. Yogurt Burst
*Weighted Deliciousness Average
"Baseball has been good to me since I quit trying to play it." - Whitey Herzog
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Oct 23, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
Well played sir...
"The Cards lead this game tied 1-1." -Mike Shannon
by ducttape16 on Oct 23, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks. I clearly have way too much time on my hands here at work this afternoon.
Along with drinking way too much coffee today.
"Baseball has been good to me since I quit trying to play it." - Whitey Herzog
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Oct 23, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
a rec for your hard work
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 23, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This quote:
… as a result I have my GOB expectations set to maximum vengeance.
I find life is more exciting when I have all my expectations set to “maximum vengeance”. Every day is like Wrath of Kahn all over again.
by arch support on Oct 23, 2009 8:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Khan & Moby Dick
To the last, I will grapple with thee… from Hell’s heart, I stab at thee! For hate’s sake, I spit my last breath at thee!
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
by Solanus on Oct 23, 2009 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So, uh, there's like 0% chance of Holliday coming back as a Cardinal, right?
Between the Yankees and Red Sox and Mets all going hard for him, there’s no way he’s with us in ’10, is this correct?
by Craig341 on Oct 23, 2009 9:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
7/126
It’s worth it. Not sure they’ll pay
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 23, 2009 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
7 years for Matt Holliday
would be a huge mistake
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 23, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Imagine him in the OF at age 35……
"It reminds us of all that once was good, and could be again." - Terence Mann.
by TurdFerguson on Oct 23, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
He had an awesome half-year with us, but if we look at his overall performance, it looks like he might have peaked (charts from Fangraphs).
"But as the leadoff guy that inning, my job is to get on base and let guys drive me in." - Albert Pujols 8/20/09, base-clogger.
by lightbulb on Oct 23, 2009 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ding, ding, ding
we have a winner.
Signing a player to a high $, long-term contract after a career year is bad.
Signing a player to a high $, long-term contract after a career two months is even worse.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 23, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Career two months?
He’s been better in two months stretches at other points in his career, so I don’t understand this comment. Not signing players based on perceived trends is a really bad idea, btw.
If you aren’t for signing Holliday because you’re worried about his age 35 and 36 seasons, then you aren’t for signing any free agent players of his caliber, ever. That includes Albert Pujols. Just trying to put that in perspective for you.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was talking about Jul 11 - Sep 11. .
or slightly before the trade until he cooled off. In that period, he hit 381/434/713.
Just eyeballing it, he had a similar stretch from Jun 24 – Aug 24, 2008 where he hit 359/453/650.
And another similar stretch from August 1-October 1, 2007 where he hit 347/425/653.
Neither are as impressive as his two month hot streak starting a couple of weeks before the Cards picked him up and ending mid-September. And during that hot streak, he also had a steady diet of
Houston Astro pitching (6 games)
Pitttsburgh Pirate pitching (6 games)
San Diego Padre pitching (7 games – granted, 4 were in Petco)
Milwaukee Brewer pitching (6 games)
Washingon National pitching (3 games)
Cincinnati Red pitching (3 games)
Granted, he went 7-12 against the Phillies in his first series as a Cardinal, but he wasn’t great against the Dodgers, or against the tougher schedule the Birds faced the last two weeks of the season.
Look, I’m not contending that he’s a bad ballplayer, but he’s not an 1147 OPS hitter either (his best two months), which is what is seared into most of our memories. And I fear that he’s not even a 1023 hitter (his STL OPS) or a 909 hitter (his 2009 combined OPS) going forward.
There are warning signs in his numbers. Maybe those warnings signs are red herrings. . . or maybe they’re the canary in the coal mine. But I think there are better/safer ways to spend that money this offseason.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 23, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure
that there’s a single person at VEB that believes he’s a 1.000 OPS player. I think most of us believe that he’s a .390 – .410 wOBA player (his career average wOBA is .400) and will play above average defense in LF. That makes him a 5-6 win player, who would be worth around $20-$25M on the open market, assuming $4.5M per free agent win as has been calculated in the past.
That said, I’m not sure what your point is. Nobody here is advocating signing him based on his last two months. Most of us who are advocating signing him have based that on the fact that he is probably a 5-6 WAR player over his career.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure where to throw this in
or if it’s even necessary (did I spell that right?)
what might his numbers looked like if he had stayed in the NL all season?
Mizzou 37 - Illinois 9
by STLRegalia on Oct 23, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not sure how to fix the grammar fail...or is it grammer..kelsey?
Mizzou 37 - Illinois 9
by STLRegalia on Oct 23, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's impossible to know.
I would guess that he probably would have performed better in his first two months than he did in the AL, but the Rockies sucked for the first two months, so who knows. He might have been a 6.5 WAR player vs. a 6 WAR player.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, according to Fangraphs. . .
He has been a 5+ WAR player for exactly three years:
2007: 7.9
2008: 6.2
2009: 5.6
WAR is (as near as I can tell form a quick look at Fangraph’s glossary/methodology) park adjusted, so: (1) Oakland as a pitchers’ park can’t serve as much of an excuse other than the new pitchers/new hitting background issues, (2) based on the last three seasons, he appears to be in a decline phase. Or, to be charitable, 2007 was a career year, and 2008 and 2009 are truer indicators of his talent level.
If you look at the WAR components, however, you can see that his batting components and fielding components have all consistently declined over the past three seasons, too:
2007: 49.9 batting 14.2 fielding
2008: 39.0 batting 9.1 fielding
2009: 36.0 batting 5.3 fielding
I take fielding numbers with a pretty large grain of salt, but these should a pretty preciputous decline from an outstanding OF to one that is merely above-average, which accords with a lot of observations on this board from even before the NLDS.
My point is that “probably a 5-6 WAR player” might be stating it too strong, and even if it’s not, signing a soon to be 30-year old to a contract of the length and size that it might take to sign Holliday to “probably be a 5-6 WAR player” is a pretty big risk, and not just in years 5-7 of the contract. YMMV, certainly, but it’s not a no-brainer that Holliday will be worth the contract that he will likely command.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 23, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I this is what you believe....
Then can I assume that you aren’t for giving Albert Pujols the long term extension (8+ years) that he’ll likely command?
If you could, would you sign Matt Holliday to a 3Y$75M deal?
How do you construct a ballclub if you never take any long term risks on talented players?
Just asking questions, I’m interested in your answers…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure, I'll bite. . .
1) Then can I assume that you aren’t for giving Albert Pujols the long term extension (8+ years) that he’ll likely command?
No, and for several reasons: A) Albert doesn’t have the “early decline phase” warning signs that Holliday has, at least not offesively. B) Albert is the franchise, and so you there is more than his on-the-field value to contend with. C) Even if Albert loses 25% of his value, he’s still a 5-6 WAR player. D) If Holliday declines into a below average defensive player, you’re not going to move him to 1B, whereas if Pujols beomes crappy defensively, well, so he’s a crappy defensive 1B.
2) If you could, would you sign Matt Holliday to a 3Y$75M deal?
I’d come a lot closer to doing that than I would a 7 year / $18M AAV deal. And if you tell me I can get him for 3/$60MM, yeah, I take that risk, but it’s still a risk.
3) How do you construct a ballclub if you never take any long term risks on talented players?
Straw man argument. I am not anathema to taking long term risks on talented players, I just think that Holliday is a poor bet to take such a risk on, based on several of the warning signs that I have brought up. I might have felt better about Holliday at age 27 than at age 29 and I certainly would feel better if I did not perceive his defense as in steep decline. I would feel the same way about most (maybe all) pitchers. I would not have felt that way about Carlos Beltran when he signed with the Mets. I would now. David Wright – sure. Ryan Zimmerman, maybe.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 23, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would like to add that...
per Holliday his early 2009 slump was due to an attempt to change his approach at the plate, which was instruction from McGwire. He tried to get rid of the high leg kick, and do more of a roll like Pujols does. This apparently screwed with his timing, and once he ditched it his numbers returned to previous levels. Do what you want with this, but I think it’s significant.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Oct 23, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's close to a sure-fire lock...
to hit the crap out of the ball for the next 3-4 seasons. After that, there’s legitimate concern. But there’s ALWAYS concern about this. Hell I’m worried about Pujols when he’s 36.
As far as his decline curve, he’s in very good shape – this isn’t a Mo Vaughn waiting to happen. He doesn’t have a nagging problem that needs treatment, like a shoulder or knee. He’s not overweight. He doesn’t have a rep for laziness or self-destructive behavior. I don’t want to pay him $18 million for his age 36 season, but that’s what it takes to get seasons 30-33. If you’re going to take the plunge, it’s got to be for this guy, right?
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 23, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is pretty much how I feel about Holliday
Your last two sentences pretty much outline how I feel about any FA All-Star at age 29 — you’re probably going to have to pay him long term, and you’re probably going to have to each some value in the last couple years of the contract.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
fangraphs
i thought a gentleman from fangraphs commented on VEB a couple days ago that Holliday was set to lose 1 WAR for each year in COL as they recalibrate their park adjustments??
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 23, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
continuing to throw my cup of water on the holliday flame
the phillies-cards comparo in the p-d today hit the nail on the head (again)
we have no victorino, no roillins, etc.
holliday represents too much money in 2 line up spots (with apu); just too easy to pitch around. we need upgrades all over the place to truly compete for the ws next year.
i’d offer matty and rosy arb and go from there when they reject
never enough dry powder!!!
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Oct 23, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's tricky to interpret without park/league adjustments
His road stats (blue lines), for example, don’t show nearly as clear of a peak
By just the road stats, he had a down 2009 (AL, perhaps?), but no downward trend before that
< obligatory>
Oh, and something about trends not being predictive.
< /obligatory>
by brackenthebox on Oct 23, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But this is half of a story
I understand that using road stats is an attempt to proxy ‘neutral park’, but it’s only part of the story. To ignore home PAs is a mistake. I should have used Statcorner’s park-adjusted wOBA* in the first place:
2004: .367
2005: .379
2006: .417
2007: .426
2008: .410
2009: .403 (since 61% of his PAs with Oakland, had to give more weight to that wOBA*)
If I look at park-adjusted wOBA, I still see a potential peak in 2007. Granted, they are still great, great numbers, but are they $18-$20 million-type numbers?
"But as the leadoff guy that inning, my job is to get on base and let guys drive me in." - Albert Pujols 8/20/09, base-clogger.
by lightbulb on Oct 23, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's also worth noting that statcorner counts ROEs
So their wOBA’s will be inflated. league average is over .340.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 23, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Our LFer in August-October...
did not strike me as a man in decline. It was only a couple months, but given his larger body of work, I think it’s safe to say that Matt Holliday can play a little. I’ve seen projections that show him as worth 4-5 war a year and around $18 million per. It’d be nice to get him for 5/90, but since he’s not going to sign for that, and considering he’s in good physical condition, I’d say guaranteeing his age 35 and 36 seasons is not an especially crazy thing to do.
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 23, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He won't be with us.
But if he does sign, you’ll be pleasantly surprised/shocked/gasping for air because the Cards overpaid.
by spants on Oct 23, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Extra Base Hits
Another way of examining Holliday is to look at his extra base hits by year.
Year – AB – Extra Base Hits
2004 – 400 – 48
2005 – 479 – 50
2006 – 602 – 84
2007 – 636 – 82
2008 – 539 – 65 (translates to 77 with 636 ABs)
2009 – 581 – 66
Looks like a decline in power (or the Coors Field effect, though 2008 was still in Colorado). Of course, one can point to fewer games in 2008 (so an injury which could have affected his performance even after he returned? – can’t remember), tinkering with his stance and playing in Oakland this year, etc., to explain the decline. Still, it makes a long-term contract somewhat iffier to me.
I know sabermetric stats may be better (so pile on). This is just a method I like.
by CRay on Oct 23, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, since you scaled the 2008 number up to 636 and it showed that he's
well within his 06, 07 ranges, all this shows is that he struggled in 09. which we already knew. part of that is playing in pitcher’s parks in 09.
this is not the way to show that somebody’s power is dropping.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 23, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Scaled to 2006 ABs
it would only be 73 extra base hits. Not trying to say Holliday is a bad player, only that there are some potential red flags out there, especially if we’re talking about a 6 or 7 year contract.
by CRay on Oct 23, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That line for Lohse makes me sick...
I’ll bet everybody here 50 internet cents that he’ll be better than that.
Also, just saw the Angels-Yankees box score… Walking Arod with the bases empty and 2 out is the most idiotic managerial decision yet this year. Fuentes walks 4 per 9, Guzman can steal a base or score on a double, wild pitches happen, Matsui can draw a walk… I’m surprised it was only a -4.5% move
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 23, 2009 9:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It was overmanaging at its worst.
Putting the game-tying run on-base. Wow. Just wow. It’s similar to unintentionally intentionally walking the winning run with the tying run on-base.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 23, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What was worse...
That or pinch-running for A-Rod once he got to first? Awful.
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 23, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hahahh yeah....oh man.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
by rocKStark5 on Oct 23, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i would have pinch-run
if/when he got to second, though.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 23, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but it worked?
(insert toast wisdom)
Mizzou 37 - Illinois 9
by STLRegalia on Oct 23, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what Torre did to Pujols worked too
i don’t know what to believe anymore
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by gdm426 on Oct 23, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
how about bunting
w/your hottest hitter up, no outs, and a runner on 2nd? Mike S. went into brain lock for an inning and nearly cost his team the series.
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song: Reason to Believe
by gocards62 on Oct 23, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wasn't it first and second
no outs, and down 2 runs? or are you talking about a different inning?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 23, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Schu and Craig battling to be 4th best?
hmm….would that be Pujols, Ludwick and Rasmus 3rd???
Thats a scarey thought that Rasmus would be the 3rd best hitter. If so our offense might blow.
Milt Thompson FTW!
by gossard56 on Oct 23, 2009 9:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Also,
the Cards are getting pretty aggressive in the Aroldis Chapman sweepstakes.
The link says it’ll likely take $40-60M to sign him. First, is he for real, or is it the Cuban Player Hype Machine in overdrive, and is anyone else scared about throwing more money to a 21-year-old than we threw to Albert Pujols for his first six years of his current contract.
by Craig341 on Oct 23, 2009 9:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It was discussed a little but it's probably worth some more discussion if we're talking about pitchers anyway, right?
I’d be curious to hear what the more knowledgeable people think of his mechanics and stuff; there are plenty of videos of him pitching on YouTube to check out.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 23, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, I'll play
With the heavily-caveated understanding that my “skills” in evaluating mechanics are far better suited to get hte odd 10-year old pitcher to throw strikes, here’s my take on the YouTube Chapman videos:
- His stuff looks absolutely nasty, first of all
- To my untrained eye, his mechanics appear to be to be very inconsistent
- His delivery is a very violent one
- He appears to be throwing more with his arm than his legs, which is good and bad: with some coaching, it appears that he could throw even faster, if taught to use his great lower body more, but depending upon how many pitches he’s thrown with that arm-heavy delivery, you wonder about the mileage on the arm
- Love the projectability of his body; those long, lanky legs are a scout’s dream
And of course, we all have to wonder about how well he could throw a 2-seam fastball and pitch to contact. /snark
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 23, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His throws did seem very "violent" and arm-y to me too
But I had no idea what that entails health-wise because I’m no scout.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 23, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he can toss them back with Motte
at the bar
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 23, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i got some very sad & bad news about the bar the other day
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 23, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
is there any other kind
it seems to me you go to a bar after you learn good news
i can’t remember learning good news at a bar
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 23, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
true, but i found out just how much exactly it's going to cost to open VEB
and i don’t see now how there’s any possible way it’s going to happen
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by gdm426 on Oct 23, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
$5,000,000
we’d spend probably $1,000,000 on payroll alone the first year. we wouldn’t even break even till well into year two. and if we’re lucky we’d finally get into the black by year three.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 23, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
is that all?
it’s gonna happen.
So who wants to go in on paying for the premiums on gdm’s new life insurance policy?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Oct 23, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm in...:-)
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
why you sonofa,,,,
fyi, i used this place as a reference point. it’s probably more upscale than i have in mind, but it’s the closest thing around here that fits what VEB would be. a single team themed bar/restaurant.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 23, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If it's more upscale it will probably cost more.
You should look at bars that are comparable styles.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Oct 23, 2009 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's the problem, i couldn't find anything
what i meant by upscale was the area it’s in. not the food & drink prices. they are actually right in line to what i was thinking. but where it’s at is an expensive area near campus & the hockey arena. i think it’s comparable to the wash ave area in the STL.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 23, 2009 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
actually, you know what
i probably should have used this place as a reference point. it’s a lot closer to what VEB would be like
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 23, 2009 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the best thing we could do
is to get JEd to go into business with us. Or Big Mac. Or So, yeah So! C’mon So, you know you want to do this.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Oct 24, 2009 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
one problem though, if Jed is the money man
everyone has to wear half shirts. and no one wants to see gdm in a half shirt
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 24, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I get to break out my half shirts?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Oct 24, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
his employees were at reppin' at the Taste of St. Louis
One was wearing a big ole ©ursed shirt
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 24, 2009 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
6ly? how did that go over with the crowd?
Hollywood will probably insist you break out your half shirt matty. i’m sure of it.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 24, 2009 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, it was a full shirt
otherwise everyone thought it was ironic and funny. lots of Cards fans, pre-game.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 25, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That caramelized salmon salad
looks delicious. We should work on putting something like that on our menu.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Oct 24, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
would you pay $15 bucks for one though?
that’s an insane price for a “large” salad topped with fish. the small one is $11bucks btw
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by gdm426 on Oct 24, 2009 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd pay 11 for the small one.
Fish is expensive and I don’t eat a lot.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Oct 24, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see any glaring problems
He’s not as arm-y as some people say.
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Depends on the video
I’ve seen some where he looks pretty arm-y and some where he looks less so, hence the inconsistent mechanics comment. I am too lazy to look at the date tags, so if he has improved on that front that’s actually a good indicator that he’s coachable/has grown into his body, etc.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 23, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Arm action looks a ton like Randy to me
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 23, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That strikes me as *way* too much money.
How does one project a 21-year-old Cuban? I don’t recall anyone roughly similar in age, league, etc. for historical comparison. Most of the defectors have been older, haven’t they?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 23, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Moody's gives him a triple a rating
looks like we’re good to go
by brackenthebox on Oct 23, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
...is there a malcolm gladwell outlier connection
to cubans and baseball? (seriously?)
Is there some freak ass thing like Canadian Hockey players being born in Jan-Feb-March similarity to cubans and baseball?
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
by rocKStark5 on Oct 23, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the good ole' eye
is good ’nuf in certain situations. Nobody really needed empirical evidence to know The Freak was going to destroy just based on his tool set. Just “looking at that guy” you “knew” batters were going to get annihilated
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
by rocKStark5 on Oct 23, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm talking about the Cuban League.
Just like the Japanese league. There was no historical comparison for Dice-K and that’s why a lot of people who are smarter than me were amazed at what the Red Sox paid for the unproven young pitcher. There was no way to project how he would adapt to MLB batters. Now, the same could be said for Chapman, not because he is Cuban, but because he played in a league that no data exists for doing a projection. We don’t really have any idea as to how pitchers from the Cuba league, at age 21, transition to the MLB. Will such numbers always prove true? Of course not. Should we always be beholden to them? No. But, when you are talking about devoting upwards of $60MM (Chris Carpenter money) to an unproven commodity, I would like to go by more than a scout watching him pitch, but not to MLB batters. To me, it seems rather risky.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 23, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The big mitigating factor with Dice-K (that doesn't exist here)
was the introduction to the Japanese market for the Red Sox. A large amount of the cost of that contract was surely offset by increased presence and revenue in Japan. I don’t see any similar benefit to be had with a Cuban player.
by brackenthebox on Oct 23, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe in Miami...
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 23, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chapman
The Cuban League is certainly NOT the Japanese League. It rates as around Low-A ball in quality, and Chapman did not dominate – he wasn’t even the best pitcher on his team.
On the other hand, he’s young, left-handed, and can throw close to 100 MPH. So, he could turn out to either be a LH Jason Motte, which is about what he is already, or a left-handed Jason Verlander.
KJOK
by KJOK on Oct 23, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'd think
the japanese league is much deeper than the cuban, and the pitchers more projectible due to MLB’ers playing in Japan. At the WBC, chapman looked like either johnson or young ankiel – either way he is nowhere near MLB ready like diceK was, yet his upside is much more.
Will interested teams have chapman throw to some hitters, or can he get away with not doing that?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 23, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
From the sound of it
Will interested teams have chapman throw to some hitters, or can he get away with not doing that?
He’s probably not going to have to do that, but his representation originally stated that anyone who wanted to meet with him would have to fly down there to do it. They seem to have reneged on that now.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would guess
…it has less to do with the calendar than it does with accruing Gladwell’s magical “10,000 hours of practice” threshhold…and doing it at an earlier age than most cultures.
by meat on Oct 23, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Payroll
Chris Carpenter signed a 5-year, $63.5 million deal. It’s the largest contract the Cardinals have ever given to a pitcher. If we have our owner openly discussing a gigantic extension for Pujols, his desire to re-sign Holliday, and seemingly giving permission to Mo to be aggressive in the Chapman sweepstakes, should we assume that ownership has decided to raise payroll?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 23, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is exactly what I was thinking
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Same here
It seems like they’re being more aggressive than they have been the last few years
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 23, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
McRae has been coaching up the front office
We’ll take some cuts at some tasty looking early signings but end up on bench 3 offers later.
by brackenthebox on Oct 23, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 10 recs
That is painfully funny.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 23, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
aaaannnnddd greeen
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by gdm426 on Oct 23, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chapman information.
His stuff was profiled briefly at BtB back during the WBC.
Some video, where you can see him throwing.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 23, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
a few thoughts on those projections
Awfully harsh on Frankiln. 10 loses and 3.64 ERA for Wainwright is bruttle. Pinero looks just about right for a 4th or 5th starter (but he will probably get paid alot more then that).
Milt Thompson FTW!
by gossard56 on Oct 23, 2009 9:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Fine, this wasn't discussed yesterday...
Jim Callis thinks that Bryce Harper could fall out the first round due to salary demands.
So, between Holliday walking and cancelling the $3MM to Wagner Mateo, what BS excuse will the Cardinals give for not drafting him? I don’t care if he wants $10MM, if he’s available, give it to him.
by Craig341 on Oct 23, 2009 9:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Didn't have the 40-man spot...
to give him?
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Oct 23, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jim Callis is wrong.
I doubt Harper falls completely out of the first round. He might fall out of the first 10 picks, but I doubt he falls any farther than that. If he falls to us in the first round, then we’d be stupid not to take him, whether he’s a catcher, outfielder, third baseman, pitcher, whatever.
I’ve said for a long time that signability is a bullshit excuse for not taking a player. I would be interested in seeing what his contractual demands are though.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Any prospect...
has a price that makes him undesirable. What if wanted a $30 million over four years. Would signability be a bs issue then?
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 23, 2009 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What he "wants" and what he'll "get"
are two entirely different things. It was rumored that Strasburg “wanted” a $50M signing bonus and a big league contract. What did he actually get? A 4Y$15M contract and a $7.5M signing bonus, which was a record for an amateur player picked in the draft. That’s less than half the money he “wanted”.
Harper wants to play in the big leagues. Period. If you draft him, you have exclusive negotiating rights to him. If you’re considering drafting him, you have to believe that he’s the next A-Rod or Joe Mauer, in which case he’ll be worth the money that he’ll get. If you don’t sign him, you get your pick back in the next year and you’ll have TWO picks in the first round in the next draft. His best case scenario is to sign with you, because his demands generally aren’t going to be met the next season if he holds out on the first team (Aaron Crow didn’t get what he originally wanted this time around, J.D. Drew took less than he wanted the second time around too) Bottom line, as a MLB franchise you hold all the power, but you still have to be fair, and being fair with a great prospect is probably going to net you better performance per dollar than any other player you could spend money on.
That’s the long form of “signability is bullshit”. You have to decide whether that player is going to be a star. If you don’t think he is, then you pass, but if you think that he is, the ability to sign him shouldn’t be an issue.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Decide whether that player is going to be a star"
This seems like a rather crude way of approaching the issue. There’s a probability that he’ll be a star, or serviceable, or a washout, and teams pay accordingly. They also choose to stand together to suppress salaries for the common good. All this goes into the calculation. It’s not a matter of certainty one way or the other.
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 23, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You mean colluding to suppress player salaries?
They also choose to stand together to suppress salaries for the common good.
Do you really like work stoppages and player strikes? Because that’s what would happen if this began to happen publicly. I don’t remember 1994 being very fun, especially since Griffey might have broken the HR record has that season not been halted abruptly.
Even if he’s serviceable for 6 years, a player of his caliber has been shown to be worth around $25M as a prospect. So anything less than that should be considered. Look at the breakdown the VEP put together when evaluating the Wallace trade. If you believe that, then why is signability an issue?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's the slot system...
and it’s done quite in the open. Look, I’m just saying, at some point prospects aren’t worth it. I don’t know where that line is, but it’s out there somewhere. Also, baseball teams do very well suppressing salaries via the slot system. If teams go over slot, the system breaks down, and all the owners are harmed long term. I’m not saying this is right or wrong, just that owners have a responsibility to behave in the collective interest if they want to maximize their collective utility. Should DeWitt give his peers the finger and do what’s best for the Cardinals? Maybe. I can certainly understand why he doesn’t.
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 23, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The slot system?
The slot system is a joke. Nobody follows it, and the teams that do get punished for doing so. Detroit has aggressively drafted over slot and look at all the prospects that have come out of their farm system in the last 5-6 years. Same with Boston, Atlanta, and the Dodgers.
Should DeWitt give his peers the finger and do what’s best for the Cardinals? Maybe.
Maybe? He absolutely should. Do the Yankees give everyone else the proverbial finger when signing free agents? You’re damn right they do.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i hear he hates america
and its education system that is why he left school early…we cant draft a hate monger!!!
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 23, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not convinced Harper is going to be that great
Or at least not worth all the money.
His bat speed is higher than Pujols’, but you could argue that that isn’t a good thing.
It could be that he’ll be a type I home run hitter (lots of HRs but just .250 average) as a result.
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he's a Type I HR hitter
as a C, um, I’m signing him to a contract right now. As a plus defensive CF, yesterday.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
However, I'm not convinced he can hit big league pitching
His high bat speed could leave him very vulnerable to good off speed stuff and curves.
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought it was the opposite...
As with Pujols his high bat speed and quick wrist allow him to keep his hands back longer and better recognize pitches. High bat speed being a bad thing makes ABSOLUTELY no sense to me.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Oct 23, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pujols' bat speed is 87 MPH, Harper's is 100MPH+
You reach a point of diminishing returns with bat speed, where more bat speed past a point starts to hurt your repeatability. Pujols trades off a little bit of raw power for improved repeatability.
See this piece…
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This quote
You reach a point of diminishing returns with bat speed, where more bat speed past a point starts to hurt your repeatability.
needs some kind of supporting evidence. That’s a hell of an assertion.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Oct 23, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone's who's played any swinging sport...
…has experienced the phenomenon where when you try to swing as hard as you can you end up hitting the ball off center and popping it up. Then when you back off a bit and just try to be smooth, you end up actually hitting the ball farther.
I have personally experienced this in both baseball and golf and know many others who have, too.
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is really, really bad logic
The reason that you swing slower when you try and swing hard is that you’re body develops more power the more fluid the motion, and muscling the bat around is going to make you slower and also less accurate.
This is not what Bryce Harper is doing. His swing isn’t muscled and herky-jerky, it’s fluid and smooth — he’s just able to swing the bat much faster than other players for whatever reason, be it reaction time, musculature, and so on. He’s not attempting to swing as hard as he can on every pitch, he’s seeing the ball and attacking it like all good hitters do — it’s just that he’s got the ability to muster a 100 mph swing when others don’t. It’s called “ability”.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it's a bit premature to hold a coronation
And send Pujols off to the scrap heap.
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No one is saying that.
My swinging as hard as I can does create a swing that is not smooth and that swing would be about 43 mph. But, what you’re saying is that because his swing is 100 mph, Harper is swinging as hard as he can and therefore cannot square up the ball. Is there any evidence of this? Perhaps Harper’s hard swing is 110 mph?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 23, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
Who’s doing that? I’m not anointing the kid as the next great thing, I’m simply disagreeing with you when you say that he won’t be a good major league hitter, especially since you’re using subjective evidence to do so
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hahaha
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 23, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't care what your personal experience is frankly.
This is something that is verifiable with performance data and measured bat speed. The fact that you casually throw it out there like it’s documented fact is misleading at best. This line of logic is the same thing that people argue with lineup protection and clutchness both of which have been shown (thus far) to be either wrong or very insignificant.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Oct 23, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure...
…but that is usually because when you try to swing harder you distort and change your swing (i.e. gripping the bat too tight), which actually decelerates your swing.
by tireinhardt6 on Oct 23, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, it's not
You’re saying that BECAUSE he’s swinging the bat at 100 mph that means that he’s muscling up and trying to swing hard. That is not what I’m seeing when I watch him swing — he’s as fluid and effortless as the other hitters that you’ve exemplified on your own website. For all you know, he could swing the bat 120 mph if he swung “hard”. You’re making a definitive statement based on your subjective criticism.
I don’t think you’ve seen his game swing. Either that or you are not making any sense.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This isn't supporting evidence, Chris
Where is the data that says guys with high bat speed are worse hitters? Show it to me beyond “Well in my scouting experience….” That doesn’t fly in this case. The guy DOES have a smooth swing, his fast-twitch muscles or whatever are clearly freakish and as such can swing the bat extremely hard w/o a ton of effort.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Oct 23, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
100MPH+
forget baseball…sign this guy up for slow pitch.
I wonder if he’s free for a tournament this weekend?
Mizzou 37 - Illinois 9
by STLRegalia on Oct 23, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd take my chances.
who else has a bat speed in that range? Vlad, Shef, Dunn…just throwing out names…I have no idea.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Oct 23, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
When the batspeed of the greatest hitter in a generation is "only" 87MPH...
…, and well below the batspeed of other inferior hitters, I’d say it may be time to rethink what we think we know about the importance of batspeed.
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know anything about batspeed.
I’m having a hard time believing that you can have too much…unless your generating that batspeed with bad habits…long swing or lot’s of unnecessary movement.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Oct 23, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pujols lower batspeed is ok
because of his ability to keep his head still and stay on balance.
Which is something he WASN’T doing the 2nd half of this year which is why he couldn’t turn on an inside fastball to save his life.
There is a difference between being able to swing 100 mph and being able to do it effortlessly.
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 23, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
But I would argue that Pujols’ lower bat speed is a big reason WHY he’s able to keep his head still and stay on balance. It allows him to be VERY smooth.
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Have you seen Harper's swing?
I’m starting to wonder when you make comments like that.
You could put a cup of water in the top of his helmet and he wouldn’t hardly spill a drop of it. His head barely moves as his swing rotates.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His head stays still
but I personally don’t like how he over extends himself moving forward. But that can be fixed. Griffey had a big leg kick (comparatively speaking) when he was really young and he toned that down to a toe tap.
Harper seems to be a back foot swinger, which I would think would keep him less susceptible to being out in front on breaking pitches.
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 23, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Harper does drift forward (like Thursty Joe).
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 23, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But Joe finishes WAY out on his front foot
like he is a flamingo standing on 1 foot.
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 23, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His swing is
like a really bad golf swing from the waist down….
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is a 6 frame swing, which is a bit long
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is that the Derby?
He was definitely muscling in that derby video.
I really wish I could find the game video of him — it’s a different swing and it’s a bit shorter than this one.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We're analyzing BP video where he's swinging at like 70%?
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 23, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Part of the problem...
…is that he’s got 2 or 3 different swings, which isn’t great when it comes to repeatability.
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tiger Woods has
like 10 different swings and it appears to work out well for him. Superior athletes can do superior things. Comparing ourselves to superior athletes, while fun, is pointless. These guys do things differently than us and that’s why we’re on a blog and they are being considered for outlandish contracts before seeing a Major Leage changeup. The question we should ask is; is this guy a superior athlete? I doubt the scouts are basing their authoritative “yes” answer on bat speed alone.
NorCal CARDS FAN
by norlanski on Oct 23, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Poor analogy
Baseball players don’t use different clubs or hit from different grass heights (and a bunt is a totally different beast).
Pujols has one swing.
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Poor analogy?
Not true. Baseball players use different swings all the time. Golfers don’t just use different swings in different lies, they use different swings to do differnt things to the ball, which baseball players do as well. I would hope a baseball player is good enough to use a differnt swing in different circumstances. Furcal and Ichiro come to mind right away.
NorCal CARDS FAN
by norlanski on Oct 23, 2009 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And
I suppose it could be argued that it is the same swing, just shorter, but most (many, if you prefer) hitters shorten their swing with two strikes. Also, often righty batters adjust their swing to intentionally hit the ball to the right side.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 23, 2009 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is a good swing
One of the things I do is teach hitting professionally. This is the swing of my top guy, Andres Torres of the Giants. This ball would have gone into McCovery Cove (for his second splash of the year), but it hit the top of the RF foul pole.
- Video of Andres Torres Home Run
This is a very smooth swing (that is based on the swing of Pujols) and it shows that you don’t have to swing as hard as Harper does to hit the ball a LONG way.
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your reference for a good swing
is someone you know personally.
Sorry, but I can’t get past the inherent bias to even look at the video.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Oct 23, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The point isn't that I know him
The point is that…
1. This is a VERY quiet swing.
2. He hit the crap out of the ball.
One thing that impresses people about Harper is how hard he swings (ala Mickey mantle) and how much bat speed he generates.
I don’t think such a hard swing is either necessary or good.
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And
This video proves it’s possible to look like you’re swinging to injure someone in the upper deck and still hit .299 .412 .602.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 23, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But one sole example
that this kid, who you personally worked with, can hit this way, doesn’t mean that your biased opinion of Harper’s swing or overall ability is correct.
Nor does it mean that another player could use Harper’s swing and hit better than he could using Torres’ swing. There are too many other factors to consider before you can say that one way is “right” and another way is “wrong”.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup
Someone I was watching the video with (and has taught hitting at clinics before) thought he was a little big overextended with his frame, but I’ve heard the same things said about Pujols. I would agree that this is correctable.
From what I see though, he’s able to stay back pretty well, so I would agree that I don’t think he’s going to be really susceptible to breaking pitches, unless he has a lot of trouble picking them up and recognizing them.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, possibly
but I know that in Griffey and Bonds case, it is because their batspeed was so high they could minimize their mechanics and hit with their wrists, and not their lower halves (atleast until Bonds started juicing.
Griffey, like Pujols picks barely moves his front foot and uses his top hand to generate most of his power. Unlike Pujols, he could hit it further because of the increased batspeed. Griffey’s swing is very much like Musials, just a tad more controlled.
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 23, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This...
is great stuff!
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Oct 23, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't understand how that could be the case...
You’re saying that having a quick bat makes him more susceptible to off speed pitches, even though he can wait longer before having to start his swing?
He has a very short swing and his rotational movement makes me think he’s got power to spare. Just by looking at what is on your website, Chris, I would think that he profiles as a very good major league hitter.
Sure, he may not be able to check his swing very well, similar to Sheffield who’s had trouble doing this over the course of his career, but I don’t see how that would impact his offensive numbers overall.
It appears that you have an axe to grind here for some reason.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Slow pitch softball batters have the highest bat speed in the world
But that’s because they don’t have to worry about off speed pitches.
They know every pitch will come to basically the same spot at basically the same speed.
Baseball isn’t like that.
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But he isn't playing slow pitch softball
he’s playing baseball, and playing it on a national AAU level against he best players his age, and OLDER than him, and crushing the ball. CRUSHING it.
I think his bat speed will probably slow down when swinging a wood bat, somewhere in the 95-98 MPH range.
Also, are you asserting that having surplus bat speed is bad because a fast swing is less repeatable than a slower one? You better have some really good evidence to back this up, because it flies in the face of just about everything we know about swing mechanics. In fact, I think that would disprove just about everything you’ve written on swing mechanics on your website. if he can swing that hard and still hit a baseball consistently, as he’s been shown to do, I don’t know why you think that he’s going to have trouble hitting big league off speed pitches but not big league fastballs, which will have more movement than the fastballs that he’s seeing now.
It’s one thing to have a long, hard swing with a lot of holes in it, but a lot of bat speed. It’s another to have a short, quick swing like Harper does, while generating lots of rotational torque and bat speed.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You don't find it at all curious that Albert's bat speed is only 87MPH?
You don’t think that might have something to do with his ability to hit for BOTH average and for power?
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He has remarkable hand eye coordination and an almost perfect swing plane for plate coverage
Yeah, that’s more important obviously. But again, if Pujols were able to maintain exactly the same swing mechanics, but he physically became more explosive (Bonds style?) to get more bat speed, he would unquestionably be better.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 23, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pujols bat speed is lower than many players, because his swing is shorter.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 23, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And I would argue that gives him critical advantages
Many of which contribute to his ability to hit for both power and average.
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes.
Players with higher bat speeds often have high K rates.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 23, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They also happen to hit the ball a long ass ways
when they hit it. If they also have good hand eye coordination, they may be able to hit for average for a good long time until they begin to lose some physical dexterity.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sheffield and Bonds
Didn’t seem to have problems hitting the ball. Neither of them have extremely high strikeout rates at the big league level.
As I said before, even if he IS a Type I hitter, his running time to first base is Mantle-esque, he could be a plus defensive centerfielder or catcher, meaning he’s going to be a valuable player whether he turns into HOF material or not.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because they have long swings
Harper does not have a long swing. Gary Sheffield has the fastest bat in history and he didn’t strike out.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 23, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
From the video i've seen, harper's swing is not particularly compact.
It’s no Chris Duncan special either, but just because his batspeed is high doesn’t mean he’s going to be the second coming of Ted Ruth Aaron Williamriguez.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 23, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No it doesn't
But it means he has a very good chance of being Prince Fielder. As a catcher.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 23, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you read above, I've never made any assertions about Harpers projections,
but am entirely concerned with the idea that “BrYZe HarP0R swinGz farster than Albert PUjools OMG!!!11”, and what that actually means about Harper (ie. that his swing is probably (haven’t seen any good video) longer, and he projects as a powerful player but may have trouble with K’s as many powerful players do). That’s all. Feel free to stop with the childish assertions about Prince Fielder.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 23, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
So you say “just because his batspeed is high doesn’t mean he’s going to be the second coming of Ted Ruth Aaron Williamriguez”, I agree with you and temper that with a realistic ceiling, and I’m childish? Hmm.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 23, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hm?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 23, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess is missed that one, fail.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 23, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry dude
didn’t see your post there — we wrote nearly the exact same thing.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm never impressed by these kinds of arguments
Life is full of trade-offs, many of which people fail to appreciate.
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But this isn't one of them
Harper’s baseball swing allows him to swing 100 mph, Pujols doesn’t.
If we’re going to use the trade off analogy, then I would also use this one:
There’s more than two ways to skin a cat, and there’s more than 2 ways to hit a baseball a long ways.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pujols bat speed
Pujols clearly CAN up his bat speed. He tried to do so in this year’s home run derby because he needed it to smash balls farther.
And you know what it did?
It funked up his swing.
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Um. This is impossible to prove.
Please do not make assertions like this.
The real point is that higher batspeed does not necessarily = better baseball player. The time it takes a player to swing is much more important than the actual speed he achieves. Pujols bat speed is much, much lower than Prince Fielder’s, but Pujols swing is much quicker, allowing him to control the zone, square up better, etc.
Higher batspeed generally means the player has a longer swing, meaning while his power increases, his K rate is also going to be higher.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 23, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with this
because it’s based on evidence.
Watching Harper though, his swing seems shorter to me than that of Prince Fielder’s. Am I wrong on this? It seems like he takes a more direct path to the ball than Prince does.
Great bat speed with a short swing made Bonds’ one of the best players of all time.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What evidence?
Has anyone seen a correlation study between bat speed and k rate or bat speed and performance?
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Oct 23, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As a general rule
Bat speed does not necessarily predict that player will be a great hitter.
It all depends on how that speed is generated and a myriad of other skills associated with hitting a baseball — it’s not just one thing.
That’s what I was referring to.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lets say he has Fielder's swing.
Is that not desirable in a baseball hitter? The discussion isn’t Albert Pujols’ swing is perfect and anybody else’s swing is flawed. A player can be a successful MLB hitter with a swing the speed of Pujols’ or a swing the speed of Fielder’s.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 23, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
That argument does nothing for me. It’s like saying Strasburg has no chance because he throws 100 and Maddux worked around 90.
by Merry CRasmus on Oct 23, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, someone said that.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 23, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh sorry
I lost track, this thing blew up pretty quick.
by Merry CRasmus on Oct 23, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm showing up late to this argument,
and I wasn’t involved in the (dumb) argument about what kind of player Harper would be etc.
My primary point is that a higher batspeed isn’t necessarily better because it often comes with a lengthened swing, increasing the actual time it takes a player to swing, decreasing his reaction time and making his K rate higher.
Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols are both productive players, but their results come from dramatically different swings.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 23, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's my core point, too
There’s a difference between their bat speeds, and I think that may be significant.
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The difference is Pujols swing is a whole lot shorter
And he doesn’t have any holes in his swing. Are you saying that if Fielder were to keep his swing mechanics/length the same but lost muscle strength and his bat slowed, he would be better off??
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 23, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
NO. NO ONE IS SAYING THAT.
A “slower” but shorter swing is actually a faster swing, because it takes less time.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 23, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not necessarily "is"
more like “can be”
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 23, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A shorter swing...
…gives you more time to read the pitch, which is exactly what Pujols does. It’s amazing how long he just sits there reading the pitch in flight. That allows him to read it better and increases the odds he will square it up.
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Painguy is
He’s saying that part of the reason Pujols is better than Fielder is because his swing is slower. Not shorter, not quicker, slower. Thus everyone’s blowup.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 23, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He actually has a really, really big hole
in his swing. It’s just no one is brave enough to go in there and expose it, for fear of making a mistake in the middle of the plate.
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 23, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fielder? Harper?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 23, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't call it big
But it is there yes I’ve even referenced that before, I was being hyperbolic.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 23, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pujols biggest current problem...
…is with the slider low and away and the fastball just above the strike zone.
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd venture to say that's more of an approach problem
Those are balls and you can’t consistently beat Pujols without throwing strikes, he’ll take the walk. But he can’t hit the ball if you get it inside. That’s not really a character flaw as very few can, but with the FB that’s where you have to go 0-0 1-0 to beat him.
IMO he knows this and cheats sometimes to keep pitchers honest and clears out his hips to turn on those when pitchers have to come inside (his HR off of a Cla Meredith sinker which was off the plate inside in 06 was the textbook example of this), but that also leaves the rest of the plate open.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 23, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure this is true
But I don’t know that I’ve ever seen him do anything with an inside pitch. Most of the home runs I see are on mistakes down the middle.
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You've never seen him open up early
to get to a ball inside?
Usually he fouls them off, but if he can catch the ball just in front of the plate, he will occasionally smoke one for a homer or down the line for a double.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
IMO he knows this and cheats sometimes to keep pitchers honest and clears out his hips to turn on those when pitchers have to come inside (his HR off of a Cla Meredith sinker which was off the plate inside in 06 was the textbook example of this), but that also leaves the rest of the plate open.
I think this is partially what leaves him susceptible to slider’s away when he’s behind in the count.
He’s also very, VERY good at spoiling pitcher’s pitches by fouling them away.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
Your core points were:
Bryce Harper is going to be a Type I hitter (high power, low average) because he has a bat speed of 100 mph.
AND
His batspeed will leave him susceptible to major league offspeed pitches.
Hazel is simply saying that just because he has high bat speed doesn’t mean he will be a great player. Which is true, but it also doesn’t mean that he WON’T become a great player, which is what you’ve been asserting all along.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not saying he WON'T be a great player
Just that there are some significant differences between him and the greatest player of the generation.
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bryce Harper will not be as good as Albert Pujols
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 23, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Prince Fielder is the son of Cecil Fielder.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 23, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, darn
A HS age kid who can hit the ball ungodly far won’t be as good as Albert Pujols!!!
Don’t you see why this is silly?
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Oct 23, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just showed up because I thought TPG was making a decent point (batspeed in MPH can be decieving),
but he was being a bit obtuse about it and not explaining entirely or articulating the whole argument.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 23, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
fourstick,
do you have a decent piece of video of Harper? I can’t find crap.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 23, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=liS3kGvQ9Bk
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 23, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is that the game video?
Or the Home Run Derby?
I can’t get YouTube at work…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
dammit
I can’t find the game film I had of him — the link to it on my facebook page doesn’t work any more, the site comes up 404…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I will look for that game video
and if I find it I will send you a link.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's some game video off real competition too
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yb2-W9R_CCQ
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 23, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Higher batspeed generally means the player has a longer swing, meaning while his power increases, his K rate is also going to be higher.
Where is the evidence to back this up??? There are too many things in baseball that seem like they “should” be one way and turns out . . . not so much. I’ve yet to see anything more than conjecture that higher batspeed = higher k rate
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Oct 23, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Calm down.
I’ll source you in a moment, but the actual point is “longer swing = higher K rate”.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 23, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
furthermore...
…is there evidence that a longer swing = a faster bat?
by tireinhardt6 on Oct 23, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
On the same player, yes.
On different players, that totally depends.
I’m actually trying to get a good source for Azru but I’m getting a lot of sites trying to sell hitting instruction.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 23, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right
But you’re assuming that Harper can’t swing the bat 120 mph. How can you know that? Maybe he can swing the bat much, much harder than he does, and this is just his ho-hum normal swing. From all the video I’ve seen on him lately, I’m guessing he could really whip it around if he wanted to muscle up.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He has two pretty distinct swings
His game swing and his home run derby swing.
Among other things, the internal rotation of his front knee changes.
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm talking about his game swing...
that’s where I’ve seen him the most, and that’s also where the bat speed numbers that I’ve seen have come from.
It’s obvious that he’s just trying to crush the ball in the derbies, but I don’t see a lot of difference from the beginning to the point of contact, just a higher finish and a little more weight load on the front leg.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haha
So if Pujols were to take steroids and increase his batspeed physically and not mechanically, he wouldn’t be better?
Harper isn’t Jeff Francoeur-ing out his swing to get to 100 mph, his swing is pretty short—-he’s got Prince Fielder’s swing at age 16.
Why is Pujols relevant here…does anyone think Bryce Harper going to be Albert Pujols as a hitter? Does anyone think anyone is going to be Albert Pujols?
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 23, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
AJ Pujols?
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 23, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just showed up because I thought TPG was making a decent point (batspeed in MPH can be decieving),
but being kind of obtuse about it and not exactly explaining or articulating a specific position.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 23, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Albert's swing
His fantastic hand-eye coordination and perfect swing make up for a lack of batspeed, but if he could keep those things intact, but get stronger and generate batspeeds of say, 93 mph, are you saying that this won’t make him more explosive?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably not
In all likelihood you’re overlooking something but critical.
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Barry Bonds
had one of the shortest and fastest swings I’ve ever seen — and he put up great power numbers while also hitting for average.
Seems to support my point, no?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Barry Bonds is a very confounded example of anything
I know one of Giants and he has talked to Bonds and Bonds is crazy smart about hitting. However, Bonds isn’t all natural, so you have take that into account.
P.S. Steroids absolutely do help with hitting by increasing your ability to apply centripetal force and stay compact.
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm simpy saying
short and compact + high batspeed = pretty damn good swing.
Obviously it takes a lot more than just great physical tools to be a great hitter. But just because a guy has one physical tool that you don’t like doesn’t mean that he won’t become a great hitter either. That’s what you’ve been asserting all along: That his bat speed is somehow a “red flag” that he’s going to have trouble with offspeed pitches — and that doesn’t make any sense to most of us.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Albert Pujols isn't walking through that door
Ken Griffey Jr had ridiculous bat speed and while he cracked the 100 K plateau each of his 5 peak years, he was also taking 700 PAs and slugging 600.
Albert Pujols is a one of a kind hitter. So is Ken Griffey Jr. No one is saying this kid will be either of them, but Griffey shows what you can do with one of the all-time fastest bats in history.
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 23, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and he also shows what you can do to an inner child's heart
as he watches his boyhood hero degrade into a fat, sluggish shell of his former self.
:(
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 23, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I actually passed up seeing him in person in K.C.
for that very reason.
Well, except that my boyhood hero was Ozzie Smith.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 23, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No matter how fat he gets
he’ll always be this guy, with the smile from ear to ear.
SOMEONE GIVE VINCE COLEMAN A JOB!
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 23, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
GOB willing, Albert is going to be shaped like a Santa one day
but he’ll have kids following him around, so the effect will be mitigated
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 23, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Albert's the greatest player I've ever seen
but it isn’t the same. Ken was ‘the Kid’. He brought that smile. He made it semi-ok for a midwestern white kid to wear his hat backwards. He swung so effortlessly. He glided in the OF. He made dome baseball kinda ok because he wore those sweat shoes. He had the twisted bat tape.
Albert’s kinda a sourpuss. The greatest RH hitter of all time kind of sourpuss.
Ken Griffey made baseball fun…until he went to Cincinnati and drank too much tonic!
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 23, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dunno, he still seems fun to me
The guy who can loosen up Ichiro still has the magic, regardless of his numbers. I don’t buy that a person is suddenly less fun because they get older.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 23, 2009 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As I've said in other posts,
but the Catcher for the M’s,Rob Johnson, is a friend. He’s told me that Griffey is the biggest kid/ prankster/ goof in the club house.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan Fucking Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 23, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't say Griffey wasn't fun anymore
He isn’t fun to watch anymore, though. :(
I mean, he is…but mostly for nostalgia. Not for his quick as lightening bat and Willie Mays-like CF flash.
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 23, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's a part of baseball, imo
if I gotta sit in some nursing home at some point in my life, GOB willing I’ll have the same gleam in my eye talking about Albert et al as current residents do talking about The Man.
It’s life. If it’s not written in your mind’s eye, it’s not written anywhere.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 23, 2009 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Albert's bat speed
is 87. What is MLB average, and the range?
Also, does size factor into the equation? Take Player X, has exact bat speed, swing, and uses same bat as albert. He and albert hit an identical pitch identically, but Player X is 5’10’, 180. Doesn’t Albert hit it farther?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 24, 2009 2:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok
Let’s assume you are right about that. Why couldn’t he just dial it back a bit? Seems it would be relatively easy to scale back and get a repeatable swing, if that is the only hang up.
by Merry CRasmus on Oct 23, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cmon...
with Hal McRae coaching he’ll be swinging before the windup… and not the stay loose kind of swing either
"The Cards lead this game tied 1-1." -Mike Shannon
by ducttape16 on Oct 23, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
as long as he kills it
before the third time around corkscrews him into the ground, who cares? (Yes, I know that would count as only one strike.)
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 23, 2009 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Unit
18 games 54 innings? 3IP/game? I’m guessing 8 starts at five innings avg…injury and then some BP time – seems like an odd projection to me.
Apparently Smoltz is going to be AWESOME for 9 starts, and then his arm will fall off in the first inning of his tenth?
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Oct 23, 2009 10:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, either they're assuming some relief work for Johnson or there's just some wonky stuff going on making it look strange
I thought our possible rotation of Carp/Smoltz/Wainwright/Lohse looked awesome until I saw the IP and GS number. Phooey!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 23, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What this team really needs
This comment probably would have been more appropriate yesterday, but I wasn’t here, so I’ll post it today. Matt Holliday is great. He really is. However, is he really what this offense needs? What we learned this season is that NOBODY can protect Albert Pujols—not even Matt Holliday when he went on an unfathomable hot streak. He will always be pitched around when first base is open in a meaningful situation. That’s the occupational hazard of being the best hitter of a generation.
Protecting Pujols doesn’t mean having a 4 hitter. It means having someone standing on first base as much as possible. For that reason, I think we need to be looking at OF options to hit in the 2 hole. Bobby Abreau comes immediately to mind. He’s a career .400 OBP guy. He has good speed to score from first on doubles. And he has the favorite TLR characteristic for a two-hitter: He can yank a 3-1 or get-ahead fastball when a pitcher desperately doesn’t want to walk him.
I have heard that Abreau turned down 2 years and $16M from the Angels. But that kind of money has to be in the ballpark. It sounds alot better than 7 years and $140M, gives a ton of flexibility for pitching or another decent (but not Holliday) middle-of-the-order bat, and part of me thinks he fits this offense better than a Matt Holliday type.
Would you rather have Lackey and Abreau or Matt Holliday and re-tread pitcher X? Maybe I’ve been watching too much of the ALCS.
by Cardaholic on Oct 23, 2009 10:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i have been waving my Abreu flag for a over a week
i think he is perfect for our offense and he will be cheaper than Holliday and provide someone who can hit in front Albert and let Corky move down so he can run a little hopefully in front of Molina.
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 23, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Just noticed you sig...
epic win
"The Cards lead this game tied 1-1." -Mike Shannon
by ducttape16 on Oct 23, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dank je!
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 23, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no abreu now and no abreu in the future
the man is a brick in the outfield, that and outbidding the angels makes this a horrible sign.
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 23, 2009 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmmmmm
For 2010? I’d rather have Holliday and Smoltz or Myers or Bedard or Duchscherer or Harden.
For 2015? I’d still rather have Holliday than Lackey, because Holliday is more likely to be a productive player in 2015 simply because he’s not a pitcher.
I don’t know where you’re getting 7Y$140M, because I haven’t seen that number for Holliday. The number I have seen is 7Y$126M, but I’m not sure that happens either, I think it’s a “Boras number”, which means it’s probably too high
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps
I wish I hadn’t added the Lackey statement. That detracts from the point, and I don’t advocate signing him—especially long-term. The point is, Luddy or someone else can hit cleanup better than anyone on this team can hit ahead of Pujols. We need a pure OBP guy more than we need a perceived power threat, and our apparent holes are LF and 3B. Who are the best value options? Abreu must be near the top of that list. He fits this team MUCH better than Cameron.
by Cardaholic on Oct 23, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you don't value defense?
Abreu must be near the top of that list. He fits this team MUCH better than Cameron.
Abreu is a horrible outfielder, and he’s beyond horrible when you take him out of RF, which he shouldn’t be playing if he signs with the Cardinals. Offensively, Abreu gets on base more often, Cameron hits more homers and slugs around 30 to 50 points higher.
He fits your fantasy with having a .400 OBP guy in front of Pujols, but I’m not sure he fits the organizational philosophy better than Cameron does, and he’ll probably be more expensive than Cameron too, if he declined a 2Y$16M from the Angels.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The organizational philosophy . . .
for the past few years seems to be bad defensive left fielders (advantage Abreu) and guys who swing at way too many pitches (advantage Cameron). I guess it’s a push.
by Cardaholic on Oct 23, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's also
to put good defensive lineups out there as much as possible.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Like Ankiel in CF over...
Rasmus or Duncan in LF over a stick with a glove on the end of it? I think Abreu is top on my list because he won’t require more than two years, and his AAV will be half of Holliday’s.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Oct 23, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm talking about organizational philosophy
not TLR’s premonitions as to who he plays where.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
lackey in 2015?
i don’t think he gets a 6-year deal. More like lackey in 2013.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 23, 2009 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unless the NL adopts the DH. . .
just say no to Abreu.
And that’s coming from a huge Abreu fan and a guy who is no fan of Holliday given his likely price tag, too.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 23, 2009 10:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Then who plays left?
If I didn’t devote 6 months of my emotional well-being to this team every year, I would love to see what a year of A. Craig would look like. That said, I can’t imagine he is any better of a defensive LF than Abreau would be, and we need a pure 2-hitter as much as anything in that lineup. Until Joe Mauer decides he wants to take a huge pay cut and transition to third base, I’m not sure what better options there are out there.
by Cardaholic on Oct 23, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mike Cameron
Adam Dunn (ducks, hides)
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 23, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd like Cameron to have about .040 more OBP
before signing him.
by sdrone on Oct 23, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we could get Mauer...
I’d be happy to let Yadi go.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Oct 23, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
craig has actually gotten some good anecdotal reviews in LF.
which makes sense. he’s 25, not obese, not injured.
He had a +4 TZR rating in 127 chances through midseason 2009. That’s on the good side. i don’t see why he wouldn’t be at least an average defensive LF, while abreu is a major negative in the field.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 23, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree
Ryan Braun has turned into a decent left fielder after being a butcher at third base, so being bad in the infield does not translate to being bad in the outfield. And Craig has only a little experience playing the outfield so far.
by CRay on Oct 23, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
More experience than Duncan had when he took the job.
by spants on Oct 23, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
holy low bar, batman!
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 23, 2009 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
limbo ain't easy
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 23, 2009 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey - I didn't put the bar there.
The St. Louis Cardinals did.
by spants on Oct 23, 2009 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How do people get paid to write this:
We saw Bobby Cox decide to come back for one more season, in 2010. It may well be that another future Hall of Famer, Cardinals Manager Tony La Russa, decides to take the same route — one more season.
The sun may rise tomorrow. Tony LaRussa may make a plug for ARF. Matt Holliday may play for the Cardinals next season.
There’s nothing wrong about these statements because they are all so vague and passive as to be tautologies. Blogs get pointed at for baseless speculation but ESPN initiates half those conversations with nonsense like this.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Oct 23, 2009 11:01 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
ESPN *and* Rosenthal *and* Heyman
They are all equally as worthy of such criticism, IMO.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 23, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey now
ESPN is making progress just for acknowledging the existence of a team between Chicago and Los Angeles….Peter Gammons still disputes it though.
"It reminds us of all that once was good, and could be again." - Terence Mann.
by TurdFerguson on Oct 23, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
by rocKStark5 on Oct 23, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
loved reading this bit of speculative "inevitability"...
3. The stars and the moons seem to be aligning for Mark Mulder to resume his career with the Milwaukee Brewers. Mulder has spent the past year tinkering with his delivery, trying to get back to his old arm slot, and one of those who worked with him was his former pitching coach, Rick Peterson, who gave him an encouraging report on his progress. And now Peterson has reunited with Mulder’s former manager, Ken Macha, with the Brewers. Given that Mulder has pitched only a handful of innings over the past couple of seasons, he won’t be expensive — this at a time when the Brewers are looking for starting pitchers. Mulder will be looking to land with folks who know him, and nobody knows him better than Peterson.
Stupid Sexy Flanders!!!
by timmycardinals on Oct 23, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn't be a proper Olney piece without some Mark Mulder pimpage
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 23, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn't be a Brewer's offseason without signing a washed up former Cardinal
by brackenthebox on Oct 23, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
Will Tony be back next year? Will the Brewers sign an ex-Cardinal pitcher?? Will Mark Mulder be just around the corner again, for the first time???
It’s three, three, three useless bits of off-season speculation in one!!!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 23, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reminds me of that Bernie piece (I think it was Bernie?) about how maybe La Russa and Torre would switch places
As in, La Russa to NY, Torre back to StL. If somebody wrote that here they’d be flamed for making it a fanpost instead of a fanshot or simply a main page post.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 23, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
John Smoltz for closer!
John Smoltz for Cardinals' closer 2010!!
by jd is legend on Oct 23, 2009 12:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So if by some long shot we actually do get Sheets
can his official nickname be “sign?”
by jealousblues on Oct 23, 2009 2:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
anyone think
aroldis chapman will get anywhere near the $40-60MM that’s being speculted? seems unlikely to me that he gets more money that strasburg. strasburg is a much more complete pitcher than chapman from what i can tell. if he is going to command that kind of money, i hope mo stays away. though, if he can be signed for like 5/25, i’d take it
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 23, 2009 3:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Strasburg could only negotiate with one team and that was the Nationals
Chapman can shop around for the best offer. Don’t know about 40-60M for a guy with his command problems but it’s possible IMO.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 23, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think he'll get 40-60.
He has a shot at eclipsing Strasburg, but not doubling or tripling his contract.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 23, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
holy sampling artifacts
that’s on a per swing basis, I assume?
by brackenthebox on Oct 23, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Awesome graph
I don’t suppose you have one with O-Contact and Z-Contact graphed do you?
In other words, I’d like to see the delineation of a player’s ability to make contact as the swing gets faster.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's speed of the ball, not the bat (if I'm not mistaken).
Hence, highest velocity balls have the highest BABIP- liners or well-hit flies.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 23, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know of a resource off the top of my head that publishes individual average bat speeds.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 23, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Correct
It’s Harry Pavlidis’ Fanpost on BtB using Hit F/X data.
Good stuff, but not exactly what we’re looking for.
That FanPost is awesome by the way — everyone should check that out.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, but
surely bat speed has to have a positive correlation with speed off the bat assuming the ball is being squared up.
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 23, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
bat speed
positive correlation with ball speed off the bat
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 23, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think that's safe to say
However, I would argue that as bat speed goes up, the probability of squaring the ball up goes down.
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'd only amends that to say
“as the bat speed goes up over the hitter’s ‘normal’ bat speed”
one hitter’s comfortable bat speed might be 87, while another hitter’s comfortable bat speed could very well be 100mph. now, if this mystery player tries to over swing and achieve 110mph, then you might start seeing some diminishing control, but saying that harper can’t square up to a ball at 100 because the best hitter in the game’s bat speed is 87 is just too fallacious for me to buy into
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 23, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
e=mv^2
all there is to it beyond the energy absorbing component (bat and body)
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Oct 23, 2009 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
....
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan Fucking Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 23, 2009 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
if only I could make that my sig
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 23, 2009 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
...making this math teacher weep...
by peach concrete on Oct 23, 2009 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i've got big shoulders that you can cry on
errr, i mean here, have a tissue
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 23, 2009 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are "bat speed" and "speed off bat" the same thing?
Cause approaching a BABIP of ~.750 seems absurd, but maybe I’m just not calibrated
by brackenthebox on Oct 23, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would guess
that they would correlate, but not on every single swing. If you squared up the ball, you’re bound to hit it harder with the same velocity swing as you would if you got under the ball.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ya, I'd imagine "bat speed" bounds "speed off bat"
with some offset due to recoil of the ball.
I was just getting the definitions straight.
by brackenthebox on Oct 23, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
Speed off the bat is going to depend on both the speed of the pitch and bat speed.
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
All this is saying is that hard hit balls are harder to make a play on
Which is important (it’s why slap hitting doesn’t work well) but not totally germaine.
by thepainguy on Oct 23, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
how can anyone trust what james has to say now that he works for the real evil empire?
i’m sorry, but i just don’t trust anything he has to say anymore. he’s too biased.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 23, 2009 3:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
isn't he from KC ?
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 23, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i hear he doesn't have anything to do with it anymore
just his name attached to it
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
by VolsnCards5 on Oct 23, 2009 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
dude, we missed baseball? there was baseball?
something about DJ Tools going yard.
I could’ve used a little GameDay. Damn.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 23, 2009 11:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
There was?
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Oct 23, 2009 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Arizona Fall League
i only caught it on twits
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 24, 2009 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh man
i read the some of the comments from yesterday’s thread
I was gonna ask that matbug guy a question, but missed where he responded to me…and missed where he accused me of being a high schooler
I had/have no problem with the guy, but just wanted to thank the guys that stood up for me
was just gonna ask a question about adam dunn
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
by VolsnCards5 on Oct 23, 2009 11:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i swear some people must just be fucking with other people
cause some of these arguments are making no sense. Yesterday was a sad for VEB, imo. I personally blame Bill James. These projections have been bad for morale.
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 23, 2009 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
like i said…it was really surreal
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
by VolsnCards5 on Oct 24, 2009 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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