2010 Projections: Bill James Annual edition
I have to be brief here, because even as the VEB counter starts registering today's hits I am sitting in an airport in Springfield, waiting to go to Chicago, waiting to go to Japan. But I was sent this year's Bill James Handbook projections in the mail, and in the offseason, well, what else are we going to talk about? Have a look:
| NAME | G | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| Yadier Molina | 136 | 485 | 135 | 24 | 0 | 7 | 42 | 59 | 44 | 41 | 5 | 3 | .278 | .343 | .371 | .714 |
| Albert Pujols | 158 | 579 | 193 | 45 | 1 | 44 | 121 | 129 | 106 | 63 | 11 | 5 | .333 | .433 | .642 | 1.085 |
| Skip Schumaker | 150 | 510 | 151 | 28 | 2 | 5 | 72 | 39 | 45 | 59 | 4 | 2 | .296 | .353 | .388 | .741 |
| Mark DeRosa | 140 | 507 | 132 | 27 | 1 | 17 | 76 | 71 | 51 | 115 | 3 | 2 | .260 | .335 | .418 | .753 |
| Brendan Ryan | 146 | 452 | 121 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 65 | 33 | 31 | 61 | 16 | 7 | .268 | .319 | .358 | .677 |
| Matt Holliday | 155 | 605 | 191 | 43 | 3 | 27 | 105 | 109 | 66 | 112 | 14 | 6 | .316 | .391 | .531 | .922 |
| Colby Rasmus | 147 | 471 | 119 | 26 | 2 | 18 | 75 | 55 | 47 | 91 | 8 | 3 | .253 | .323 | .431 | .754 |
| Ryan Ludwick | 149 | 511 | 138 | 31 | 1 | 26 | 77 | 93 | 48 | 129 | 3 | 3 | .270 | .339 | .487 | .826 |
| Julio Lugo | 97 | 320 | 83 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 41 | 31 | 32 | 58 | 11 | 4 | .259 | .332 | .363 | .695 |
| Tyler Greene | 71 | 208 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 15 | 53 | 13 | 3 | .250 | .307 | .389 | .696 |
| Mike Cameron | 149 | 561 | 133 | 32 | 3 | 23 | 79 | 74 | 71 | 171 | 11 | 5 | .237 | .328 | .428 | .756 |
"James's" projections—he does not, apparently, have much of a hand in them, as any projection work he did would probably be property of the Boston Red Sox—are typically very optimistic on offense, so take these with the usual untrustworthy spices.
1. Who had Tyler Greene with the highest OPS among shortstops? Young Greene had an exciting year in Memphis, lost in the Boogstravaganza, and I think he'll make an excellent reserve—I love his career 113-15 SB:CS ratio in the minors. But I'm a little worried about an offensive regression from Boog, and more worried still about what would happen on the game threads if La Russa kept batting him second anyway. Someone remind him about damage in the two spot, just in case.
2. I said two spot instead of two hole there, even though I think La Russa uses "hole" more often, just to avoid a really off-color that's what she said joke.
3. That Colby Rasmus line would crush me. Seriously, I don't know what I'd do. It's a significant improvement from .251/.307/.407, but I want to see .270/.340/.475. I'm going to be crying breakout wolf all season; I can feel it already.
4. No David Freese projection, but that DeRosa projection might as well scream "Just start David Freese!"
If I go to sleep right now I'll get about four hours' sleep—so I'll go to sleep right now. I'll try to set the pitchers' projections up for tomorrow; I've got some serious layover.
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964 comments
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Comments
Greene
The only one that stands out is Tyler Greene hitting almost as well as Lugo (and with better defense of course) and hitting better than Ryan. Maybe he can be a platoon partner for Schumacher.
KJOK
by KJOK on Oct 22, 2009 1:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
he should play every day
in Memphis, and come up if boog, schu, or lugo go on DL. Unless we wind up with a lefty bat at 4th or 5th outfielder, the roster spot for backup INF #2 will likely bat lefthanded, and hopefully not be named Joe Thurston.
Now, if Greene can win a starting spot, that’s different.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 22, 2009 2:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I get what you're saying, but
Tyler Greene is already 26 years old. I don’t think he has anything left to prove by playing in the minor leagues everyday. I think the “let him play everyday in the minors” mentality is more suited to a younger up and coming prospect that still has a lot of things he could stand to learn. What I’m saying is that I don’t see his growth being stunted by riding the pine a few times a week like it would be for someone younger.
He hit it good. He hit it good.
by Jack618 on Oct 22, 2009 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The problem with this
is that the Cardinals don’t really have an “up and coming” prospect that has proved that he can play at a AA level yet, much less starting every day in AAA. Unless Kozma makes some kind of huge leap forward over the winter, I think Greene will be playing every day in Memphis next year barring some kind of injury.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 22, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
solano could handle the job
or is he 2b exclusive?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's not to have him prove anything
it’s to keep him sharp in case of a callup. That’s just his fate, it seems, unless he can win a starting job, and there he does have a lot to prove.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 22, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Color me unimpressed by TGreene
He strikes me as the SS version of Crash Davis. Puts up good numbers in the minors, but thanks to his low contact rate and holes in his swing, he gets exploited by major league hitters. He should go to Japan.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 22, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that should read
exploited by major league pitchers. . . although I suppose that an in-his-prime Brooks Kieshnick would do the trick, too
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 22, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mike Cameron...
Yeah, maybe not so much.
by wyld stallyns on Oct 22, 2009 2:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yay. Mike Cameron.
Seriously, not sure where he came from, but I really hope we don’t even begin to consider that guy.
On with the (good) youth movement!
by aet15 on Oct 22, 2009 3:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I guess it's aging curve
But that’d be his lowest slugging since 1998 and OBP since 2004—-adjusting for PETCO’s Jupiterian gravitational field for his 2007…or something like that. Even still that’d make him an unbelievably average hitter and given that he’s something like a (regressing) +5-8 run defender (in CF, like +15 in LF if Matt Holliday is +5) going forward, he’d still be something like a +3 Win player. I don’t get the feeling Cameron is going to see 12-14M, so he could be fairly undervalued. Granted he’s old and could fall off a cliff, but he could also be the +4 Win guy he’s been the past two years too. He’d also be insurance against Rasmus’ .160 .219 .255 line against lefties continuing.
(Note: I am not arguing for a platoon, but in the case that at say July 1 next year Rasmus is still hitting like a mediocre pitcher against lefties, it’d be useful to have a RHH CFer.)
If they exhume a 3-win 3B or P, they’d have equaled Matt Holliday’s production on short term deals without risk of a ‘What the [Vernon] Hells’ type contract. Holliday is damn good, but given that we also have significant holes elsewhere so we can replace the aggregate without the risk of killing ourselves for years if the cost is in the 20M range AAV. Holliday is almost certainly more valuable to Boston/NYY than to us because they don’t have three or four holes to fill, not only can we not outbid them, I wouldn’t want to win that war.
IMO Cameron on a carbon copy 7M→10M option + say Timmy Hudson > Holliday 20M (and more importantly Holliday at 20M 6 years from now). The offense would suck, but even Todd Wellemeyer would look good with count ’em 6 legitimate plus defenders out of 8 if we count Freese.
I for one am not excited to turn over a rotation slot (or two!) to Hi-Me’s 46 innings in 2009 or Hawksworth’s minor league track record as a starter or Walter’s 87 mph fastball. They are good backup plans for a surely-someone-gets-injured rotation of Carp/Waino/Hudson/Smoltz/Lohse, but if you plug them into the rotation to begin with, the backup plans to those guys should they fail look something like “Ponson, Sidney”. I think the utility of a useful 6th starter in the MLB is really, really underrated. The 6th pitcher on a team to start the year almost always ends up getting a lot of innings—-24 starts were made by pitchers not listed among our top 5 to begin the year in 2009, 19 in 2008, something like 162 in 2007 etc etc.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 22, 2009 6:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"because they don’t have three or four holes to fill"

"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
by rocKStark5 on Oct 22, 2009 8:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You are invited to the pants party?
I want the Walrus back...
by Paulspike on Oct 22, 2009 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who has 4 holes to fill?
No, I don’t want an answer to that question.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 22, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shin shi shin shi?
When the fall is all that's left, it matters a great deal.
by the red baron on Oct 22, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mousssakahh
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 22, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Double Winners!
When the fall is all that's left, it matters a great deal.
by the red baron on Oct 22, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love...lamp
"Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work"
-Mark Twain
by Taskmaster on Oct 22, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I believe
it’s a tragic combination of the aging curve and the untucked shirt swing impedance curve.
"The Cards lead this game tied 1-1." -Mike Shannon
by ducttape16 on Oct 22, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see the appeal
Dude crushes lefties:
2009: 271/420/534
2008: 282/397/555
And he’s not a Miller Park mirage, either. His splits over the last two seasons have been mixed, but generally, he has bit better on the road than at home:
2009 (H): 242/327/476 (A): 257/355/432
2008 (H): 224/313/388 (A): 259/346/548
On the contra side, he will turn 37 in the offseason, and he kind of collapsed in the second half (241/311/432). He will also likely be too expensive to realistically serve as the light side of a platoon, no matter what his defensive value would be in a corner.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 22, 2009 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hate the idea of signing Cameron
not because of him or his age, etc. But signing him would give TLR another legitimate CF and lead to Colby not playing full time. I really think Colby needs to play almost every day. He looked much better against lefties in the LA series (very small sample size) than during the year. And remember, Colby lost weight during the year, had various health issues, etc.
I don’t mind the 147 game projection for Colby but he won’t start that many if Cameron is on the team.
by CRay on Oct 22, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
kind of a toss up
rosy vs. cam, if we are going to keep our strike out totals up!
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Oct 22, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, that's the only way he makes sense.
he would be a very expensive 4th OF/platoon partner. the idea would be a cameron/corky/luddy OF.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 22, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That defense would rock
Offense would be a question though.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 22, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
holliday/corky/luddy > cameron/corky/luddy > dunkiel/corky/luddy
you take the good, you take the bad, and there you have . . .
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 22, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the facts of life...
oh, Mrs. Garrett…
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 22, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
got anything that needs fixing, mrs. garrett?

the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 22, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
also, how about the pants?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 22, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the sad thing is
right now, i am wearing the exact same jacket as Blair…
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 22, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh man.
Sorry nomar but that was a PLD.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Oct 22, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well yeah
But Cameron/Hudson/Corky/Luddy > Holliday/Hawksworth/Corky/Luddy
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 22, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gawwwwww :(

John Smoltz for Cardinals' closer 2010!!
by jd is legend on Oct 22, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
:( stab.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
very well done.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 22, 2009 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not really
Cameron’s a .330 wOBA hitter, basically league average, Ludwick’s about .350 and Corky is probably .330, which a bunch of room for breakout.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 22, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But it's not like breakouts are certain
I just meant it’s more of a question than if Holliday were in Cameron’s place. But that’s sort of obvious.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 22, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well yeah,
But Cameron is also a much better defender than Holliday in left (hell, he’s been +10 in CENTER the past 2 years) and he’s far cheaper and will take a shorter deal.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 22, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Makes sense but
would Cameron sign with the Cards if he was projected to play left. Always seemed to me that he viewed himself as a centerfielder and I think someone will pay him to be one.
by CRay on Oct 22, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is there any evidence of this?
Players generally care about playing time first, and a player nearing 40 is usually lucky to be getting starting job offers. It could be that Cameron would oppose a move, but if the contract agrees with him, that’s probably more important.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 22, 2009 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thought he once shared an outfield
with beltran, no? I admittedly could be mistaken.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 22, 2009 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2005 half season in RF
played 76 games all year 67 starting in RF so must have been off an injury. Played May 5 – Aug 11. Other than that he’s been a CF for eleven seasons.
by ubeddie on Oct 22, 2009 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks
so he was obviously intended for a corner position, right? Beltran wasn’t moving.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 22, 2009 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cameron actually was moved for Beltran
Cameron signed a 3 yr contract with the Mets after 2003, then Beltran signed after 2004 and the Mets convinced Cameron to move, then traded him in the next offseason. From the link in my post below to the Nov 05 article
Cameron was uncomfortable playing right, where he was moved after the Mets signed Beltran last offseason. He said he met with Mets GM Omar Minaya after the season and expressed his desire to play center but added that he didn’t demand a trade.
by ubeddie on Oct 22, 2009 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you guys not remember their horrific collision?
This is the only video I can find. It’s brutal. They both run and dive for the same ball and crash face-first into each other’s faced. Mike Cameron’s face was broken in several places, and Beltran was pretty beat up too. I think Cameron’s vision was impacted notably (an improvement, somehow, I heard).
Offseason Rumors : Me :: Unicorn Blood : Voldemort
by Cardinals645 on Oct 22, 2009 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty sure someone has commented on this already
but your sig is awesome.
And that collision is scary.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Oct 22, 2009 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you
and yes, yes it is.
Offseason Rumors : Me :: Unicorn Blood : Voldemort
by Cardinals645 on Oct 22, 2009 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mets OF
Beltran in CF, Floyd in LF and Cameron/Victor Diaz in RF. Hit post before adding this.
Also found more on the injury. From espn.com Nov 05 trade to SD for Xavier Nady. Totally forgot about this
Cameron’s trade from New York to San Diego was finalized after the Padres were assured by doctors on Friday that the outfielder has no lingering vision or health problems from his season-ending, face-to-face collision with Mets teammate Carlos Beltran in the Petco Park outfield on Aug. 11.
by ubeddie on Oct 22, 2009 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Biggest Argument Against
He is the source of the whole “untucking” crap.
Hold on to Rasmus and let him develop. With what he didnt do against lefties the cards still won the division by 8 games.
by backtocali on Oct 22, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really couldn't care less if he is the origin of that.
If he’ll help the 2010 St. Louis Cardinals win the division, and is available at a reasonable price, sign him.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 22, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
exactly
Our filtering process as fans is sometimes too emotion based. No to Cameron. No to Valverde because he is too flamboyent on the mound. No to Papelbon because he is a douche. No to Bradley because he is carzy. No to Myers because….well when they pose a problem in the community that is an big issue.
Of course all things being equal, you want the guy that gives the great quotes and likes to be around his teammates. But if the bad personalities bring you a value, maybe even because of their flaws, then I think it merits a look. Tony’s paid quite well. Assuming he stays, he should be able to manage a few off personalities if they present a great value in on field production.
by Merry CRasmus on Oct 22, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
screw the great quotes
but yes to being able to fit in with the team. you’re lumping a lot of “emotional” “decisions” together, some of which are not created equal.
just a general rebuttal to the dismissal of those “unquantifiables”, not you specifically, MC. it’s not about bringing down the morale — it’s the fact that this clubhouse has a lot of guys who are committed to making their teammates play better. we’re seeing it pay off. this is how the Cardinals win games. why take an obvious plus of this team and hamper it? just because we can’t quantify it?
it’s not about “bad personalities”, it’s whether these guys are team players. obviously gambling on those personalities pays off if they commit to playing baseball with the rest of the team. as with Lugo. the main objection to some of these guys is not the lump-sum “we don’t like them” …. it’s the long, long track record of some of these players being unable to play well with others.
I would definitely consider some of the guys on that list based on their field performance. I just disagree that their individual stats are the measure of their ability to work together with their teammates, aka value, when there is ample evidence to the contrary. Until the Cardinals play baseball like tennis, it’s a team sport, and I don’t think value to the team should just be discounted as “emotional”.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One argument for signing these guys
can be made by stating that the market devalues them more than it should. If one believes that, then they’re a bargain, no matter how you specifically quantify their value.
I’m not sure that it’s still true, but if one thinks that most GMs overvalue intangibles, you satisfy the above assumption.
by brackenthebox on Oct 22, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
admittedly
making decisions based on a presumption of market inefficiencies is a dangerous dangerous game
by brackenthebox on Oct 22, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
one could even make a movie of it
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
only aaron sorkin could make that movie
by brackenthebox on Oct 22, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
put a car chase in or i'm not watching
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
a Michael Bay-Aaron Sorkin joint
by brackenthebox on Oct 22, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm more excited
about this movie. Lots of delays, but it’ll happen eventually!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 22, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this one
is further along. (has an ad)
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Holy crap that was hysterical
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 22, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's really all I am saying
I am not defending Bradley. Not even saying I like him. I do like DeRosa, he seems really sharp and seems to “get it” when it comes to behaving properly socially. That’s probably worth something, but I wonder if it is worth as much as everyone seems to pay for it.
If I think I can get better production from Bradley for half the cost of DeRosa (just making an example here), then I pick Bradley. Yeah, I’ll probably complain about him when he acts like an idiot, but at some point there has to be a price you’re willing to accept to put up with that stuff.
I’m quite certain if I knew all Cardinals past and present personally that there would be a decent percentage I wouldn’t like. I suppose I care a little bit, but not that much.
I don’t like one of our employees at the office all that much. We aren’t going to go out for beers. She’s more than a little odd. But she pretty much does her job, and she is more than competent about the things that are really important. So I put up with it, and don’t really have a second thought about it.
I’d like to think that guys that play a game and make millions from it can have an off personality in their midst and still catch the ball, throw the ball, hit the ball. I’d like to think a HOF manager can manage a tough personality here and there too. If the value is there then I take it and use the savings to keep the core guys around. If their mood is sour having a jerk around then maybe the saved money going their way will smooth it over.
by Merry CRasmus on Oct 22, 2009 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't disagree with you here.
Personally, though, I wouldn’t refer to what’s been seen from Milton Bradley as just a “tough personality.” I generally feel that he wouldn’t be around come September when you need him. Maybe he could help you in the regular season, but I think that he would cross swords with LaRussa, Pujols, or Carpenter. I think that would be the end of his time in St. Louis, and we’d still be stuck with the remainder of his salary. So, you’d have to get enough value out of him in 2/3 – 3/4 of a season to put him past a DeRosa. I’m not sure that even +.200 OPS points does that for me.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I gotcha
it’s just than when your comment begins with a blanket statement about fans, and then goes on to list Cameron, Valverde, Papelbon, Bradley, and Myers….
this is pretty much lumping all those cases together, and all those responses together. which is then easy to ball up and dismiss en masse.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It does depend
The severity of the “quirk” factors in to how much of a discount you’d demand. Didn’t intend to paint them all as the same case. I think Myers is pretty serious. I’m not sure he’s even safe in the community. Bradley is not quite at that level, and the other guys are even less serious than that – to the point where it is almost trivial.
I just think that sometimes there is opportunity to be found when you take on these cases. They cost themselves money. So it’s still worth taking a look and seeing if it’s worth it. Just don’t like rejecting it out of hand.
I’ll add that I feel more strongly about this in baseball than other sports, because while every man on the roster is important it all comes down to a head to head matchups (and defense). So you can isolate it in baseball, much more so than the point guard who wants to score 20 or the wide receiver that won’t block if he doesn’t get the ball.
by Merry CRasmus on Oct 22, 2009 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes... still....
I can’t discount 162 games plus spring training. It’s one thing to be sick of a guy when you have a 9-5 job. It’s another thing to spend more time with him than you do your own family, have to work with him in front of 10-40,000 people almost every day, and then ALSO depend on him for head-to-head matchups and defense.
I most certainly think you can isolate field stats to evaluate a player by himself (or as stated somewhere else, in your fantasy baseball team), but you can’t isolate baseball players. They live in each other’s armpits.
I do agree that it shouldn’t be the deal-breaker. Just not something that’s ignored because we can’t crunch it into numbers.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree.
Nothing a player says for quotes in a paper is ever the truth and their persona is never accurate. Fans want to win, so do GM’s and owners.
We have a current player on our roster who (allegedly) hit his pregnent wife in the face with a car and was released from his team for doing so. Doesn’t matter as long as he hits lefties.
Winning matters. Another teams douchebag is another teams #2 pitcher.
by Tom_Lawless_Bat_Flip on Oct 22, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lugo hit his wife in the face with a car?
Good god, I knew he could glare you to death, but I had no idea he was so damnably strong. Wow.
When the fall is all that's left, it matters a great deal.
by the red baron on Oct 22, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That famous Action Comics #1 cover was actually inspired by Julio Lugo
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 22, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep. Into the car hood. (Allegedy).
by Tom_Lawless_Bat_Flip on Oct 22, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's more like
hitting the car with her face
sounds like she should have listened
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I AM KIDDING AND APOLOGIZE TO ANYONE I MAY HAVE OFFENDED
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
who throws a car?
honestly! you fight like a woman!
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 22, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Heard she was "with child" at the time also.
On April 30, 2003, Lugo was arrested and charged with assaulting his wife. Mabely Lugo had reported that Julio had hit her in the face and had then slammed her head against a car hood. She was treated at a local hospital for injuries.4 His wife filed a restraining order but later rescinded it. Lugo was found not guilty of misdemeanor assault after his wife stated that she had exaggerated the story; despite the fact that she had signed a sworn statement to the contrary.5
by Tom_Lawless_Bat_Flip on Oct 22, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't like the "untucking," but ...
it doesn’t really matter in the long run. He’s not going to talk a LaRussa/Pujols team into that, and Mike Cameron was around a long time before that. He’ll be held to a higher standard here and expected to respect the game more.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yep, yep
I am not even sure if Pujols or LaRussa would be the ones with the bigger problem with it. I think Carpenter would stop that in a hurry. Of course I am a bit shocked Carpenter allowed the kidney punching after walk-offs. You just don’t disrespect a good body-shot like that.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Oct 22, 2009 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Carp seemed really into it....
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ya....but those weren't fake shots.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan Fucking Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 22, 2009 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
of course not
that boxing instructor did them a lot of good
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
backtocali
by all accounts cameron is a solid citizen and teammate. read about his foundation. i’m not trying to say that should be considered in signing him, just saying that neither should your point.
We should look at his .420 OBP against lefties last year, higher than holliday. that would take some of the sting out if colby struggles against lefties – not instead of colby but alongside him in LF. We would have two lineups, and cameron would bat second in the order against lefties. He and a good starter are a good contingency plan in lieu of Holliday, IMO, and maybe even a better plan overall.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 22, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"We would have two lineups"
I laughed aloud at this. More like 152 lineups.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan Fucking Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 22, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In fairness, Barry Bonds is a free agent...
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 22, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't need that strikeout king on our team
Best moment I've ever seen at a game in person
Looking forward to Cardinals baseball in 2010!
by zoomzoomj88 on Oct 22, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Going on this projection alone
i would say Pujols has a chance to have a very good year…Ramos is a bust…3B needs to looked at outside the org…Mike Cameron is becoming Rob Deer…Khalil still gets no respect…
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 22, 2009 8:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So having seen this
who becomes the beta test for the Viva El Birdos Community Projections for 2010 Project?
by StanTheManFan on Oct 22, 2009 9:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I thought that was December
we gotta pace ourselves!
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we could have community projections for surprise offseason surgeries
better get started soon
by brackenthebox on Oct 22, 2009 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kyle Lohse
John Smoltz for Cardinals' closer 2010!!
by jd is legend on Oct 22, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brad Thompson
With a freak unspecified foot injury. In an unrelated story, a labradoodle will have been crapping out shoelaces for weeks.
by Merry CRasmus on Oct 22, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wondery why
he/they project Rasmus not to improve. I liked his approach late in the season
by 643 on Oct 22, 2009 9:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
he is projected to improve
.307 / .407 → .323 / .431
by brackenthebox on Oct 22, 2009 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well that's a fun arrow autofilter
by brackenthebox on Oct 22, 2009 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
really?
→ coool.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
More arrows fun with unicode
Head ⇶ here ⇺ for tons of arrow codes.
To use them, replace the XXXX in the following code with the number from the first column on that page:
&#XXXX;
by brackenthebox on Oct 22, 2009 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes, I just like the ease of the auto
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yea, well in that case
→©
that’ll be $2 for your previous usage please
by brackenthebox on Oct 22, 2009 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i thought that was a rose emoticon for a second
besides, you already have a dollar!
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
takes money (and autoformatting) to make money
- ©
- $→$$
- *
- profit
*no ellipsis needed
by brackenthebox on Oct 22, 2009 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In ☭, unicode arrows you!
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 22, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
What a country!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 22, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Check out A.D.A.M's curveball
↶
I want the Walrus back...
by Paulspike on Oct 22, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
they've got bugs bunny's too
↯
by brackenthebox on Oct 22, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
He's a stud...
Can we trade for him?
I want the Walrus back...
by Paulspike on Oct 22, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wabbit stew
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
+1
Best moment I've ever seen at a game in person
Looking forward to Cardinals baseball in 2010!
by zoomzoomj88 on Oct 22, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nono, I know.
Just not much, and not with his average, really. Just sayin’, I’ll be flummoxed if he bats .253.
by 643 on Oct 22, 2009 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Projections are pretty useless
for young players without a lot of games played. Just don’t let TLR see them.
Carry the battle to them. Don't let them bring it to you. Put them on the defensive and don't ever apologize for anything.
by giveml on Oct 22, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And boog
now strikes me as a guy who knows his role at the plate a bit better. I imagine he’ll regress some, but I see no real reason why he should start flailing away again.
by 643 on Oct 22, 2009 9:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Remember when Bill James
showed that Rob Deer hitting .190 had a better year than Tony Gwynn?
the beer flowed like wine and the women flocked like the salmon to Capistrano.
by Harknights on Oct 22, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree.
That line from Colby is quite dissapointing and would get many Cardinal fans go nuts. We have been waiting much too long for a breakout prospect… It is quite frightening to think we might get more at-bats from an Ankiel-esque or Duncan-ish corner outfielder if Colby doesn’t perform.
About DeRosa… I really want the Walrus back… small tear
Well, I guess Freese would be a cheap improvement that will allow payroll for either Holliday or a Starter…
I want the Walrus back...
by Paulspike on Oct 22, 2009 10:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
that projection is basically league average offense
with a ++ glove at a premium position for dirt cheap. I wouldn’t be too upset about a line like that, especially if his split starts leveling off.
by brackenthebox on Oct 22, 2009 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
League average
for a CF, though? I’d be curious.
Good point about dirt cheap, though
by 643 on Oct 22, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
fangraphs
somebody at fangraphs just wrote that we’re witnessing a golden age of center fielders right now. so, league average at center field is waaayyy above replacement and is thus very valuable.
ummm, here’s the link http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-rise-of-center-field/
by spencegrif on Oct 22, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Freese will be the better player this season...
offense and defense combined.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Oct 22, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i expect freeze
to have a reitz-type glove and zeile-like bat and think that’s solid, especially for the price, and allows us to focus on other needs.
unless I’m confusing him with someone else, freeze gave up baseball for a couple years after high school and then got the itch to play again. so while some talk about his age i think it’s pretty impressive where he’s gotten.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 22, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You don't think that's a little optimistic?
Reitz probably would have won multiple GG if it weren’t for the fact that Schmidt was over there in Philly. I’d be more than happy with him providing Zeile-like production with the bat.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i hope not
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 22, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
David Freese's MLE's in 09 over 224 ABs were for a .755 OPS.
If we can expect even a .725 OPS from him at the ML level and if he pulls out a +10 UZR (minor league TZR of +12/150 at AAA in 08), he’s going to be much more valuable than most folks are expecting.
Brian Barden played only 216 innings at 3b last year logging a +14.9 UZR (not likely an aberration – he logged a +20/150 at AAA in 2006, a raw score of +11 at AAA in 2007, then a +6/150 at the more challenging SS position in 2008). Barden was actually our most valuable 3B by a hair in 2009 even though derosa got three times as many starts (519 innings) and barden only had an ops .664 and a wOBA of .292.
Had we given Barden 1000 innings at 3B – while we would have been seriously demoralized by his performance at the plate – he would likely have been worth 1.5, maybe 2 wins over the year from his defense. I think Freese has a comparable glove to Barden and is likely to hit much closer to average. I think Freese is a 2 win player in 2010, barring a complete failure to adapt to major league pitching or a sudden loss of range.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 22, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The GOB do in fact AVENGE.

they’re just a little late sometimes.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 10:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
those bastards don't believe in time
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 23, 2009 4:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BTW,
per MLBTradeRumors, Wanger Mateo might sign with San Fran. I am glad for the kid, getting a second chance…
I want the Walrus back...
by Paulspike on Oct 22, 2009 10:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i don't think there was ever any doubt
that mateo would get a 2nd chance. His talent was never questioned.
I’d really like to know the details of the vision issue. Did the cards get cold feet? or is this kid truly a ticking bomb?
by _pistol_ on Oct 22, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It'd be breach of contract if it wasn't a legit medical issue
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 22, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i understand that
i was just speculating on the level of certainty that this kid will be unable to perform. From the card’s standpoint, the real risk has to weighed against the $3.1M, they offered him.
by _pistol_ on Oct 22, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's obviously less than 3.1M
The Latin market is cool because it’s a free market so in theory teams should be paying something close to the expected value of future performance in the big leagues (probability of making it * value if you make it)—-less some risk premium. The eye thing introduces new risk into the equation on top of simply “will he develop into a big leaguer” risk, reducing the chance of Mateo making the big leagues at all and probably his value if he did make it. Obviously from the Cards perspective, the eye thing dramatically changed that valuation.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 22, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
unless this is a really rare eye condition
presumably the risk profile for it is pretty well determined and shouldn’t vary much from org to org, so yea, it’ll be interesting to see how much the valuation drops.
by brackenthebox on Oct 22, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and more importantly
what are other teams willing to risk, now that the condition is known .
by _pistol_ on Oct 22, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Those are very depressing numbers
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 22, 2009 11:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, it will no longer be the Roaring Double Aughts.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 22, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some of those numbers just don't seem believable
I don’t think Ryan is going to shift that bad.
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 22, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
I don’t see Colby doing that poorly either. He showed serious promise near the end of the season.
by Mulliganstew on Oct 23, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They're more reasonable than I first thought...
I don’t see why Yadi should be expected to regress .035 in OPS, and Ryan’s drop of .063 is hopefully a bit much. Ludwick is projected to improve by .050 and Rasmus by .040 (hopefully he’ll do better). I think they are overall a bit conservative…or maybe I hope they are.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Oct 22, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Boog
I think one of the more interesting questions next year is what Boog will do offensively. As Danup, I also think Boog might regress offensively. But, who knows, perhaps now that he has performed at the major league level, he will develop into a pleasant offensive surprise.
by CRay on Oct 22, 2009 11:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
the key to Boog
is extended playing time. It affects his defense — which already plateaus at a higher level because of his footwork. Watching when and how Boog repeats his mistakes was telling. He didn’t… unless he had a lay-off. One of the last things he adjusted before the end of the season was Not Killing Albert, something we despaired of all season long.
That’s effin’ valuable. The guy learns how not to repeat his mistakes. If he can just keep that up, it won’t matter where his projected ceiling is — he’s going to add value to the team.
And it affects his offense. He must see live fire on a regular basis to get his timing down. Not to mention they’ve got the book on him: inside fastballs. In September, Yadi’s injury was unfortunate but his off-time was understandable given all the wear and tear… and right when he got his stroke back. Same damage to Boog, and less necessary. Once Boog spent September with sporadic playing time, I knew in L.A. he was either going to turn it on or bust. (Then TLR kept him in the two-hole and all was lost.)
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I find it really interesting ....
that Boog’s numbers from 2007 and 2009 are almost identical. He struggled with a great deal of injuries, inconsistent playing time, and general hate from the manager in 2008. I wonder how much those things effected him, too.
2007 / .289 / .347 / .406 / .752
2009 / .293 / .340 / .400 / .740
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I noticed that too
It was really encouraging. I was definitely in the offensive skeptic crowd concerning Boog. I thought 2007 wasn’t gonna happen again, but it did. That’s not a bad line at all from a great defensive SS; if he can keep up that average-to-a-little-above-average OBP and slug just a little I’m fine with him as our starting SS for a while.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 22, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he has one home run
if he can just learn to hit it in Busch Stadium (without any cubs “outfielders”), he’d have just enough weaponry to really compliment this lineup
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it's much more likely, given Boogs track record
That he will hit something like .270/.310/.360 this year, that he will hit like he has in that ~600 plate appearance sample in 07 and 09.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 22, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not... processing this sentence
you mean 2010, yeah?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
his offensive value is so BABIP driven
as a slappy singles hitter who doesn’t walk, he could OPS .650 or .740. it’s very luck driven. i would guess he’s up for regression, but a lot will just be luck.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 22, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well he is superstitious............
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which track record are you talking about?
The vast majority of his ML plate appearances bear out a higher value for OPS. I could easily see what you are saying happen, but I’m just curious how you got there.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His minor league track record
He had a .724 OPS in 1680 plate appearances in the minors, and a .644 OPS in 479 plate appearances in AAA. Those are terrible numbers.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 22, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks.
I’m not convinced that he’ll maintain what he’s done, but I would think it will help to play consistently all year. I would love to see him be more patient, but I have a feeling he pretty well is what he’s gonna be. I would be surprised to see an Ozzie-like turnaround in his offense.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i don't even kind of agree
with lugo’s sub-.700 ops projection
greene better than lugo? my ass
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 11:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What's so funky about the Lugo projection?
He OPS’ed .643 and .685 in 2007 and 2008, respectively. He is going to be 34 next season.
Do you really think his talent level is the .784 OPS he put up since becoming a Cardinal? No way he sustains that.
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 22, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
his bos/stl ops for '09
was .756. he’s only had an overall season ops under .700 two times and then he was probably dealing with a bad right knee. speaking of which, he should be fully recovered from come spring training.
i’d expect more like .730-.750
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
.730-.750 is above his career average
And he is in the age range where significant decline is a major concern.
Further, digging deeper into his OPS, he had an unstainably high 14.1% IFH rate. 12 of his 85 ground balls went for infield hits. If we apply his career (outside of 2009) IFH rate to to those 85 ground balls, only 7 would typically go for hits. Now, 5 incremental singles might not sound like a lot, but changing them to outs makes his line do this:
.280/.352/.405/.756 ⇒ .261/.331/.385/.716
That’s a pretty big difference. Normalizing his IFH%, regressing his other peripherals, factoring in the fact he spent half the season in a hitters park, and adding in his age profile makes a .695 OPS projection very reasonable.
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 22, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, there is nothing special about Lugo
He put up a combined ~.305 wOBA in 2 years Boston, which is dreadful, and was decent this year, but in a small sample size.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 22, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How long do we have control of Lugo?
Since he’s free, are we just going to keep him as a bench guy for a while?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 22, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, so what are we doing to do to lift this team's OBP?
SI pointed it out and blamed our playoff losses on it. While I know there are lots of issues, we can all look at the box score each day and see zero walks.
Of course, I’m sure it just takes money.
by sdrone on Oct 22, 2009 11:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Addition by subtraction
Aufweidersehen, Ankiel
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 22, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and guten tag
excellent obp of ludwick, rasmus and craig’s rookie season
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent OBP?
I don’t see that. heh.
by sdrone on Oct 22, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
exactly
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
...LOB is LOB
regardless how they gotOB.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
by rocKStark5 on Oct 22, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I will wait for PECOTA projections
I don’t trust Bill James projections
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 22, 2009 12:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
zips get no love
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
IIRC isn't
zips, chone and pecota pretty similiar in accuracy results? I’m totally not looking that up because I’m pretty sure and wrapped up in something else (your mom).
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
by rocKStark5 on Oct 22, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i use pecota for pitchers
chone for hitters
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 22, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is it me or is everything from BP a little suspect these days?
At least that’s my perception
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 22, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did you see the PECOTA implosion on 2009 team predictions at VegasWatch?
Came dead last, even behind the WWL commentators, and this is after winning for (i think) three years straight.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 22, 2009 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure how much that means though
There were a lot of teams that had really weird seasons (Mets, Rays, Cubs), so they could have gotten unlucky.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 22, 2009 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tigers too.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 22, 2009 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cards also
Last time I checked, we were only projected to win 82 game or so. I don’t think anyone could have predicted Carp/Waino/Pinata.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 22, 2009 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't really understand the Yadi projection.
The guy has consistently hit between .290 & .300 the last two years, and he hit between .740 & .750 OPS both years. Why would they suddenly predict he’ll drop .015 points from his BA and .035-.040 points off his OPS? I think we are seeing what Yadi is offensively.
The others seem reasonable given the amount of data; however, if Colby Rasmus really only produces that, then I hope we don’t sign him to a long term contract early. Granted, I actually think the kid will be a lot closer to the Ludwick projection for this coming year than the one for himself.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 12:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yeah, these projections suck
who is bill james
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why the sarcasm?
I do agree with most of his projections. I think the Rasmus one is based on the fact that the kid played part time for one season. I just question the Yadi projection. Do you really believe his suddenly going to regress back to where he was 3 years ago? If so, that’s a lot more valid argument than just being snide. I’m willing to listen to the argument.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm not being sarcastic
granted this is my first encounter (that i know of) with his projections, but i disagree with a lot of them
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My bad then.
Sorry. I thought everybody here knew who Bill James was, so I took as sarcasm.
Which ones do you disagree with?
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
colby, yadi, lugo, boog, greene
and with albert coming off surgery, well, i aint sayin it
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
a projection doesn't know
albert’s coming off surgery, just that he’s been really consistent the last three years.
by DanUpBaby on Oct 22, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh, i know
just saying 44 hrs might be a bit much. course he had surgery last off season and hit 47. who knows
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you're getting pocky for all of us, right?
because I’m sure we can ask momup to post more pictures……
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exotic pocky too, not the boring kinds.
Like eel flavor or something.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 22, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
with kraft dinner
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
dijon wasabi?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 22, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, ...
I think the issue with trying to project what Colby, Ryan, and T.G. will do this year is a lack of valid information on the guys. Any predictions have to include MLEs along with the limited information provided by their short ML careers so far.
Lugo’s projection reflects his time in the AL East recently. I think that he has a potential to be better given another year from injury and a move to the NL Central. That’s just a guess, though. The numbers would lead you the direction that James goes here.
I obviously agree with you about Yadi because it seems like there should be enough information to predict him as better than these numbers.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and as far as who bill james is
i know he’s a sports writer
i meant more like “how does he get of with those projections!”
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh c'mon man
Bill James is the reason we talk about sabermetrics on this site and in baseball in general.
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 22, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
did you guys read what i said
i said i know who bill james is. i said i don’t agree with his projections for colby, yadi, lugo, boog, greene
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you said he was a sports writer
that to me says you dont know who he is.
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 22, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No...you pretty much dismissed him as a "sports writer"
he pretty much started the Sabermetric movement. I’m not saying I agree with hiS projections here, but he has more credibilty than someone like Strauss, for example.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan Fucking Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 22, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so it's him we have to blame
Mizzou 37 - Illinois 9
by STLRegalia on Oct 22, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Because players regress
Yadi in 06 and 07, hit like a pile of crap. Last 2 years, he’s been great. You could assume that he’s “turned a corner” the last 2 years; however, that would be overly optimistic and wouldn’t have much basis behind it. It’s much more likely that he played above his true talent level the past 2 years, and below it in 06 and 07. However, since the two good years were more recent, we weight them more heavily.
Let’s do a quick projection of Yaid, just using OPS. Here are his OPS figures and plate appearances by year:
2006: .595 OPS, 461 PA
2007: .708 OPS, 396 PA
2008: .740 OPS, 485 PA
2009: .749 OPS, 544 PA
If you weight those by plate appearances, then 5-4-3-2, you get a .718 OPS projection. Then, considering the league average OPS for a catcher is roughly .715, you’ll regress 15% to that mean, which gives you a .715 OPS projection.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 22, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't really understand the "played above his true talent."
His numbers were extremely inconsistent in his early years as he established himself in the bigs. The last two years his numbers have been virtually identical. How can you define his true talent level, and why do you simply identify him as a league average catcher by default? This is the problem I have with using a player’s first few years in the league to try to measure his true talent, whether they were good or bad. It’s just too inconsistent. He’s much more likely to be hitting his potential between ages 25-30, which is where he is now.
Then again, these projections are fun, but I don’t consider them much more than mental masturbation, anyway.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So, you are essentially saying
That because Yadi has had two good years in a row, we should throw out all previous information we have on him?
by vivaelpujols on Oct 22, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe he's... improving?
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 22, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No.
I’m saying because he has consecutive, consistent years that you are more likely seeing his true talent. I trust that more than just generally assuming that he is a league average catcher. I don’t understand that constant normalization that you seem to do with individual player projections.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No,
but I don’t think we should dismiss the very real possibility that he became a better hitter as he progressed in his MLB career. I think that what etp_stl is saying is that he believes Yadi improved as a hitter and that his true talent level is a .740-.749 OPS as we sit in our chairs today and type. And I think that I agree with him.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 22, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some other considerations
He came up pretty young, and he was really brought up because of his defense. So it really wouldn’t be a surprise that his bat caught up a little bit as he matures.
Also his 2006 season appears to be a little bit of an outlier, not only compared to more recent seasons, but also compared to his prior ones. He outperformed that level even at age 21 and 22.
I’m expecting what we’ve got in the last 2 seasons is pretty close to what we can expect for the next few too.
by Merry CRasmus on Oct 22, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The projection game is actually very scientific
And while it may seem to be just mental masturbation, it has a very direct purpose to it
Say you have a player, let’s call him Yadi. He comes into the league at 5:10 (I think), is a catcher and is considered a good enough hitter to be considered a major league player. There is other information we have on him of course, he is someone short, is slow, has good contact skills, a good eye and limited power; however, in the absence of any glaring trait that separates him from anyone else, we can assume that he will hit like a major league catcher, which is a wOBA of about .318. In Bayesian terms, that is our prior.
Then his first season comes along. In 04, he had a .294 wOBA in 151 plate appearances. Obviously he performed poorly, but we don’t assume that he is in fact a bad hitter, because anyone can play poorly in 151 plate appearances. That would only slightly change our estimates of how good a player he is.
Then 05 comes along, and he continues to struggle. He puts up a .282 wOBA in 421 plate appearances. If you combine that with our previous record of his performance, his 04 season, and weigh it more heavily (because more recent performance is going to be more predictive), you get an equivalent wOBA of .284 in 572 plate appearances. Again, we don’t assume that he is actually that bad, because it’s very possible to get unlucky in 572 plate appearances; however, we do regress slightly less to the mean than we did after 04, because we have a larger record of his statistical performance.
Then in 06, he had his worst season yet. He had just a .261 wOBA in 461 plate appearances. But, since we know he is a major league catcher, and thus should be expected to hit better than that AND we have previous records of his performance that show he has hit better than that in the past, we don’t take his 06 season at face value. We simply weigh it and incorporate it to our record of past performance. So after 06, he has a career equivalent wOBA of .272 in 1033 plate appearances.
Then 07 happens. He has his best season yet, with a wOBA of .311, but it comes in a relatively small sample size, just 396 plate appearances. Do we assume that he has turned the corner and will be a decent hitting catcher in the near future? Of course not, anyone can play above their head in 396 plate appearances. Again, we simply weigh that record of performance into our previous records of his performance, and after the 07 season, we can say that Yadi’s equivalent wOBA is .285 in 1429 plate appearances. Which of course is still miserable. However, since 1429 is a small-ish sample, only 3 season worth of data, it’s possible that he has played below his actual ability (remember that our prior is that he is a .318 wOBA guy). So we regress a little bit to the mean, due to our uncertainty of his actual performance.
Than, 08 happens. He improves again to a .323 wOBA in 485 plate appearances. Again, we don’t take that performance at face value, because it’s possible that he was performing over his head that year, so we weight it into our previous records of his performance. Doing so, gives us an equivalent wOBA .300 in 1914 plate appearances.
Then 09 happens. He improves his performance, once again, and puts up a .337 wOBA in 544 PA. However, that is only about 1/5 of his career numbers, and is a relatively small sample size in itself. Anyone can play above their head in 544 plate appearances, just look at Jason Barlett this year. So we don’t assume that this sample represent his true ability, we only only weight it more heavily than previous seasons, because it is most recent, and then combine it with his previous totals.
So after 09, his equivalent wOBA is .316 in 2458 plate appearances. That is how he has performed. Period. However, since our prior is that he is a major league catcher, and thus should be expected to have a .318 wOBa, we regress his numbers to the mean, because it’s possible that he played under his head, albeit unlikely so we only regress a little bit. That leads a projection for a .316 wOBA, which equates to an OPS of about .710, right about where Mr. James projection has him.
There are two major parts of projections. 1) is weighting the data. You can never assume that 1 season, or even 2 or 3, represents a players’ true ability. People can get lucky or unlucky, or simple play over or under their head, in 1 or 2 or 3 seasons (hell, it’s even possible to do so over an entire career). That’s why we incorporate ALL data we have on the player.
The next part is regression to the mean. As I mentioned, a player can under or over perform his true talent level even over the course of a career. That’s why we have to regress, always, to our prior estimate of his ability, which isn’t based off of stats. Usually, it is the league average, however, you should obviously incorporate any other information you have about the player into it.
You absoulely cannot just take a players nubmers in 1 or 2 seaons, and say that is his true ability. Yes Alex, he may be “improving”, you can’t just assume that he will continue to play at his improved level. We have 1500 other plate appearance that say he isn’t as good as he has been over the past 2 years.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 22, 2009 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd
Thanks, VEP. That’s really helpful to me as I continue to wrap my head around the heavier statistical stuff.
I never would slip you Mickey! It is merely rhinoceros horn. This makes the champagna bubble.
by The Continental on Oct 22, 2009 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i like the way
you back up your numbers with words. Thanks.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 22, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you completely ignore the trend?
I mean people don’t generally enter the league at 21,22, or even 23. They are usually hitting at A ball at 21. His progression isn’t all that out of line from what you’d expect from any hitter from his early to mid 20’s is it? The 2006 season was out of the normal pattern, but other than that it seems perfectly normal to me.
I know you weight more recent more heavily and so that counts for a big part of it, but isn’t it also likely that the guy is just a better hitter now than he was at 21,22,23?
by Merry CRasmus on Oct 22, 2009 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
most of the predictors
also use like bodied and performing players to predict future improvements/regressions
it will be interesting to see as pecota and zips come out how they compare…
by FunkeeC on Oct 22, 2009 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, absolutely
However, that comes after the weighting and regression. Aging curves are a valid point, and that probably makes James’ projection a little bit pessimistic; however, saying that “he was consistent the past two years, so that represents his true ability” is wrong. I was replying more to etp_stl than you.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 22, 2009 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't say that exactly.
I said that I am more confident that that’s his true talent, but not that it definitely identifies his true talent. I think the weighting should take more into account the age factor that MC references, as well.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You will admit that is subjective and not based off of anything really, right?
by vivaelpujols on Oct 22, 2009 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There is more subjectivity to that, yes.
I wouldn’t say that it is entirely baseless, but that I would feel more confident with the prediction in 3 more years. The problem I have is that your method seems to be set to always bring him back to league average regardless of the amount of time that he spends above that level. It seems that your assumption is that the true talent for all players is league average, and that over the course of infinity it will be proven out as such.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The problem I have is that your method seems to be set to always bring him back to league average regardless of the amount of time that he spends above that level
That’s not what I am saying, sorry if you mis-understood.
He should be regressed to league average, or whatever you decide you prior to be (if you understand what I mean when I say that), based on how many plate appearances he has.
If a player has 400 plate appearance, he regresses 30% to league average. If he has 800, he regresses 10% and so on.
Again, he doesn’t have to regress to league average. Say you found the the average player who had a lot of Yadi’s attributes (position, height, weight, contact ability, arm, etc.) has wOBA of a .340. You would then regress his numbers to that mean instead, based on amount of plate appearances of course.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 22, 2009 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How do you think his skillset translates?
Taking things in a different direction here, but I’d like to know what your thoughts are. How does this prototype age? I’m not sure there is a prototype for Yadi, but anyway, he’s a guy that is slow as molasses, puts the ball in play better than anyone but chases some pitches still (walk a respectable amount). He hits a ton of grounders and did I mention he is already slow?
Beyond running the numbers, I can see a case for making an argument either way (he’s going to hold stead a long time or a swift drop). It seems he defies logic in a sense – he hits the ball on the ground as much as anyone, he’s as slow as anyone, yet he hits for average. Of course, I’m not sure how many hits he loses by getting even slower so you could argue losing more speed isn’t going to hurt him.
Like I said, I’m not even sure there are too many hitters like him. Not sure if that is a good thing or not.
by Merry CRasmus on Oct 22, 2009 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well he hits for a high average because he never strikes out and hits a lot of line drives
That’s pretty simple, I think.
You are never going to be able to completely model each play. In fact, the more granular you get, the more inaccurate it is going to be because the sample size from which you are judging historical comps becomes too small.
Anyway, back to the question, I think he’ll stick around for a while. He really never fucking strikes out, and seems to be developing a better eye.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 22, 2009 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Umm not really
I think anyone who has seen his plate appearances these last few years can see the how he has become more mature at the plate.
by Mulliganstew on Oct 23, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for your explanation.
I understood how you got here.
a player can under or over perform his true talent level even over the course of a career.
This statement makes absolutely no sense to me, though. If you perform to a certain level over the course of your entire career, then the assumption of true talent was wrong. The same way the other way. Over the course of your career, you are the sum of your numbers.
I completely understand the weighted averaging that brought to what I would consider a conservative estimate of what Yadi (not Alex, I think you crossed up discussions) will do this year. I simply don’t believe that Yadi has reached the point at which the data sums his offensive potential, yet.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm guessing
nagging/chronic-type injuries could be one factor.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 22, 2009 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because true talent level isn't neccesarly capture by performance, even over the course of his career
A ~10,000 plate appearance sample is no different than a 5 plate appearance sample. Both are just sample data of a players true ability. However, since 10,000 plate appearances has a much lower standard error, in terms of how well it represents his true performance, you regress very, very little to the mean.
The classic example of that is that there is a 99.9999999% chance, NOT 100%, that Barry Bonds actually is a better player than Neifi Perez. He obviously performed better; however there is a minuscule chance that Bonds simply over performed his “true ability” (which is how he would hit if he had an infinite number of plate appearances) enough and Niefi Perez under performed his true ability so much that he is actually a worse player, at least statistically.
It’s all theoretical, and in the case of Bonds and Perez, esoteric and kinda stupid, but it’s the basis of how you project players based off of stats.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 22, 2009 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's true in a purely statistical world, but ....
this is where I start to deviate from a pure statistical approach to analysis. There is no way to determine that true ability then because it’s not possible to have Molina take an infinite number of ABs. This works for coin tossing, but the subject has the ability to change the outcome.
In addition, the player’s true ability is affected by age and injury. I don’t agree with this method of analysis because it excludes too many variables to be valuable. It provides a more reasonable guess, but that’s why I refered to it as mental masturbation, IMO.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, if you include performance data (which is how well he hit)
Than you HAVE to use the purely statistical world to utilize it properly.
Subjective information is the in the prior, which is the beauty of Bayesian analysis. Say you took a detailed study of players like Yadi. They were catchers with good contact skills, a good eye, below average power, kinda short, a little heavy – basically, they had a lot of the traits that Yadi possesses. You would plot out how they did, based off of age, and you would get something like this:
…………………………………………….320
………………………315………………………………….314
……………..310………………………………………………309
………..307…………………………………………………………..305
.305……………………………………………………………………….300
20 ……..22…….24…….26…….28…….30…….32…….34……..36
If that makes sense to you.
Each of those data points have there own possible distributions attached to them, most likely they are normal. So, say you have a player, who has performed well above the mean each year and is entering age 27. After weighting and regressing to the mean (of catchers who are likely Yadi); you’ve established that his most likely true talent level is in the 90% percentile, so that’s how you would expect him to hit at age 27.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 22, 2009 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Both of these methods have their pros and cons, but ...
it still doesn’t explain how to identify something like “true talent.” Just because you pick even a large sample size of similar traits, you are not going to be able to perfectly model an individual with that method, either.
The problem with any type of mathematical modeling is that it is nearly impossible to get a handle on the number of variables needed to make an exact model. When you add the emotional and psychological factors along with the physical factors that go into an individual player, it is nearly impossible to actually model a player’s potential.
I’m an engineer. I’ve been involved in trying designing off of mathematical modeling, and it is inexact even when dealing with machines. Control tuning is still considered an art because there is not a valid way to approximate all of the system variables that could affect it. Yet, you want me to believe that something as complicated as the motor skills required to make a round bat hit a pitched round ball are more easily modeled than that? It doesn’t work for me. At the end of the day we’re both just guessing.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which is why I suggest a midpoint
Namely, Bayesian math.
You update your prior, which would be based off of scouts, physical attributes, etc., with performance data. I really don’t see a downfall to that method.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 22, 2009 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok.
After doing a little reading on what that means, then I don’t disagree. I would say that I am coming more from the subjectivist perspective on that topic, then. I get the feeling you’re approaching it more from an objectivist perspective.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
something that gets overlooked is that very few people - even the
most stat-centric – live in a “purely statistical world.” so, i would imagine a sabermagician might say something like “troy glaus’s projection for wOBA is X; however, he’s coming off a shoulder injury so you should probably guess it will be X -.050 due to decreased power.”
projections are a jumping off point, just like the rest of SABR work. the point is that you should try to make your adjustments to the projections sensible, not based on phony conventional wisdom.
For instance: pitcher A has a projected FIP of Y, but you should look for slightly better performance since he’s moving to a pitcher’s park/the NL or since his sinker has been shown more drop in the last year according to pitch f/x, etc.
The point of projections is that you give everybody a common jumping off point.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 22, 2009 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right
However, you do have to have some good qualitative information if you want to update the projections. “Pitch f/x shows his sinker has been better this year” is good. “He’s a flyball pitcher moving to Petco, so we should expect his HR/FB ratio to drop” is good. “Yadi has finally figured it out” is not very good.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 22, 2009 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Except
Yadi obviously maturing at the plate is exactly what has happened. The projection for him is bull. If he did that poorly this year, we’d all be shocked.
by Mulliganstew on Oct 23, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The classic example of that is that there is a 99.9999999% chance, NOT 100%, that Barry Bonds actually is a better player than Neifi Perez.
This is something I hate. I mostly agree with it, but it makes life really hard when this is your outlook. Everything becomes, "Yes, but. . . "
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Oct 22, 2009 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, if you are basing decisions off of sample performance
You have to think that way.
Guys who are pure scouts I don’t mind. They look at the players tools, their swings, mechanics, and other physical and mental things that are divorced of performance when making decisions on players.
Guys who I hate, or at least don’t like their methods, are guys who make decisions based off of a small sample size about a players performance, IE stats.
If you use Bayesian math, you can combine a pure scouts thinking about a player with their actual performance. That I think is the right way to go, always.
If you simply make decisions based off of a small sample size (which can be anywhere from 5 plate appearances to 1000) without including any other information about the player, that is the wrong way to go.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 22, 2009 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol
Offseason Rumors : Me :: Unicorn Blood : Voldemort
by Cardinals645 on Oct 22, 2009 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
It makes everything seem “black and white” or “in a vacuum”, when they clearly aren’t.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 22, 2009 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm confused by this response
It seems like you are disagreeing with Azru sentiment, but you wrote +1 so wtf.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 22, 2009 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It makes your analysis seem "Right or Wrong"
In other words:
“My projections are right because I used the best mathematical model to derive them”
Even though you might be dead wrong on that player’s performance next year. There are no projections that are “right”, only your best possible educated guess, regardless of your method.
I regards to my comment above, what I’m saying is that if this is your outlook, then there is no reason to do projections at all, because projecting player performance isn’t a “logical” practice in the first place. There is no way to logically predict a player’s performance in the future, as I pointed out above.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
All models are wrong, but some are useful
Just because a model can’t predict exact behavior doesn’t make it worthless (or illogical to use). Newtonian physics is wrong, but for a huge number of problems, it does a damn good job .
None of this, however, has anything to do with VEPs point about evaluating true talent level from a finite sample, from what I can tell.
by brackenthebox on Oct 23, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
From a logical perspective
You can never know “true talent level”. That’s what he’s saying. If that’s the case, then you should never be predicting player performance to a certain number, or even to a certain range. If you can’t know the true talent level of a player, then logically you can’t predict how that player will perform.
Therefore, projecting performance is never “right”, it’s always got error bars, yet there are plenty of people here who chastise others for projecting something because it doesn’t fit their model of projection. Well, whose model is right?
I agree that analysis should be more subjective, but rejecting a hypothesis that is based on evidence when you yourself reject the fact that true talent level can’t be measured specifically seems like sour grapes to me. It’s “use my method because I’m brilliant at math”, rather than “I respect your research and will take that into account”. We should be looking to build a better model all the time, instead of assuming that our model is the best and nobody else can refute it. That goes against the logical principles that he brought up.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just don't see the incosistency
The framework VEP is supporting treats talent level as a distribution and generates projections that are distributions. It doesn’t make a projection to a number or a range; it makes a projection that is continuous over all feasible space, with very small density in unlikely regions. The reported “projection” is a summary of that distribution (e.g. the mean, median, mode, etc). I don’t think VEP would argue in the slightest that there are errorbars.
Bayesians do have a tendency to get a little overbearing (in just about every field), because the framework is general enough to incorporate almost any specific modeling instantiation. I doubt any Bayesian is a particularly strong proponent of any one model (specified functional form, parameterization, etc), but instead will strongly defend the modeling framework.
As for the last paragraph, I’m not sure to what hypothesis you refer as being rejected.
by brackenthebox on Oct 23, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's rejecting the hypothesis
that Molina’s last two years at the plate are not his true talent level, when they very well could be his true talent level. The reason he’s rejecting it is because it flies in the face of his “mathematical” conclusion conducted using regression analysis and probability.
Thing is, the hypothesis he’s rejecting could be absolutely correct and his could be completely wrong. He doesn’t know that going forward, he’s just logically assuming that because he’s done the legwork that he’s going to be more accurate — and history has proven that this just isn’t the case. It’s not like the other hypothesis is completely subjective, that person made assertions as to why he could be correct, and they are reasonable conclusions.
I guess I just get tired of the math heads always being “right” because there’s really no way for anyone to prove them wrong “mathematically”, even though they full well know that their prediction could be wrong.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not rejecting that the last two years don't represent his true talent level
I’m saying it’s not as likely.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 23, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think we're on the same page here.
It’s skepticism taken to it’s logical (and like I alluded to, correct) conclusion. It’s a debilitating life perspective if applied to every aspect of life though.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Oct 23, 2009 8:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've got my application in at the
Department of Redundancy Department.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Oct 23, 2009 8:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, we're on the same page
I just didn’t phrase things very well.
As I said above, in response to VEP, if one is focussed on the best logical conclusions, then one shouldn’t be doing player projections of future performance, because there is nothing logical about predicting human performance down to specific numbers — logically you’re always going to be wrong, and any skeptic will always doubt your numbers.
If this is VEP’s outlook, then he shouldn’t be arguing about who’s predictions are “correct”, because none of them are “correct”, they are all just the best educated guesses of people trying to use mathematical principles to predict non-linear events.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 23, 2009 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm following you now.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Oct 23, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course none of them are going to be "correct"
Because they will continue to update as we gain more information. I’m not very adept in Bayesian math, just started learning about it a couple of months ago, but maybe Bracken can help me here.
You are allowed to change your prior, right? If Yadi has truly “changed” his approach (I don’t think he has, his BABIP has just jumped a boatload), then you would have a new baseline. However, you still have to use his performance to update that. NOT replace it. If Yadi has another great season, his projection goes up, because we have more data to support the hypothesis that he is better.
Of course we can never know a players’ true talent level. 1) there will never be enough data, and 2) a players true talent level doesn’t stay static obviously. However, projections are the best estimate of a players true talent level based on the information that we have, I don’t really see the problem here.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 23, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can certainly update your priors
That’s basically what Bayesian methods are meant to accomplish. It’s a way to incorporate new data into an existing model. Every time you get new data, you treat your previous model as the “prior” and then add in the new information. The nice thing about it is it allows you to incorporate many different modeling modalities in a common framework (a long as you can represent the results probabilistically).
For the Yadi case, you could either go back and update the original prior, or you can still start with the same prior (league average catcher), and add in the additional information as “new” data (height, weight, age, hitting profile, whatever else). You’d then continue to update your model with all the performance data that normally goes in.
by brackenthebox on Oct 23, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and the whole idea is that eventually, your prior doesn't matter
as it get’s swamped out by the data. Assuming that you model the league average catcher as a gaussian, this is actually know as the “least informative prior.” In other words, it is the prior that will have the least impact on the results (subject to mean and stddev constraints, in this case).
by brackenthebox on Oct 23, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks a lot
This is all really interesting to me. I’m going to have to read more on it.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 23, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I mispoke actually
I didn’t mean “can you update your prior”, the is obviously the whole point. I mean can you change you prior.
To me, some “skills” are inherent and have very little variation. Height, weight, arm strength, etc. Those shouldn’t be regressed at all, which means they should go in the prior. The performance data should update the prior.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 23, 2009 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
one more, and I'm done
The “based on the information that we have” piece is crucial to all of this, and it’s often overlooked by people who blindly follow (or bash) statistical modeling.
More than anything, statistical modeling is a way to encapsulate our current knowledge in a simple framework. In many cases, they’re also useful for making predictions, but they can really only make statements about things they’ve seen before. So while they may be decent for interpolating behavior, extrapolation based on statistical modeling is, in my opinion, a fools errand.
I think it’s safe to say that a good chunk of the blame for the financial mess of the past few years can be pinned to over-reliance on statistical modeling (and extrapolations from them).
by brackenthebox on Oct 23, 2009 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is the nature of scientific thinking.
It’s the same reason a scientist will say that the theory of evolution is probably true but not that it’s unfalsifiably immune to contrary evidence. Because there’s a lot of evidence for it, and because there is no other theory that explains that evidence better or makes better predictions, evolution by natural selection is the accepted theory for the origin of species. If Neifi Perez comes back, and posts a 3000 OPS for ten straight seasons, then we’d have to admit that he probably really is better than Bonds. That’s just so unlikely to happen that even a scientifically-minded person can say Neifi is the worse baseball player. If they discover fossil rabbits from the pre-cambrian period, evolution will be proven false as well, but that’s less likely than a Neifi comeback, so evolution is an accepted theory.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 22, 2009 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s just so unlikely to happen that even a scientifically-minded person can say Neifi is the worse baseball player.
Where is this line in the sand? This is why I try not to think about it to hard because the truth is that we each have a personal and completely arbitrary threshold for when ignoring the improbable is acceptable.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Oct 23, 2009 8:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
anyone who buys a lottery ticket
should probably allow for the possibility that Neifi>Bonds
by brackenthebox on Oct 23, 2009 8:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've never bought a lottery ticket
I refuse to volunteer my money for the stupid tax
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Oct 23, 2009 8:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the hopeful tax!
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 23, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The "Bad At Math" tax?
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Oct 23, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you're in good company
even Einstein rejected a probabilistic world view
/bad_analogy
by brackenthebox on Oct 23, 2009 8:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, it is possible to be lucky/unlucky year in or year out
If it is possible for one year, why is it not possible for that to repeat for five or ten years in a row?
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 22, 2009 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't disagree with your method
but I can disagree with your conclusions, predict him to be at the average of his last two seasons, and be correct. That doesn’t mean your prediction method is faulty, just that when predicting human performance of any kind, there’s going to be a significant error in your calculations.
The only issue that I have is this “average major league catcher”. Well, what is an average major league catcher? I can think of guys who hit more homers than Yadi and walk more than Yadi, but don’t hit .290 – .300 in consecutive years. I think you need to compare Yadi to Yadi and not a whole bunch of other players who have different skill sets than he does.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 22, 2009 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes of course
However, it’s much harder to find information about those types of catchers. Do you want to go through retrosheet and find the average performance by age of catchers who are similar to Yadi? I don’t think so, that would be very hard. However, I believe that is what some projection systems actually do. for the rest of us, regressing to the major league average is a safe bet.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 22, 2009 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Has anyone seen his leaguewide projections yet?
James has in the past predicted a “pitcher’s resurgence” or “hitters resurgence” in a given year. Considering that he usually errs on the side of overvaluing hitters, perhaps his metrics are predicting a “year of the pitcher” in 2010 for whatever reason.
I doubt these numbers came from James himself though.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 22, 2009 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow...
If Matt Holliday is not signed the best OBP the cards have to offer is Skip? Holly cow
Um, Maybe TLR should lead off Yadi (.343 OBP) and bat Skippy #2 (.353 OBP)……
Maybe the Cards should seriously consider trying to get Milton Bradley. He had a putrid year and still put up a .378 OBP
by ICbirdfan on Oct 22, 2009 1:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i'll take him
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes please.
I meant skip had the best OBP second to Albert.
This team could be terrible offensively next year, especially if Matt Holliday is gone.
by ICbirdfan on Oct 22, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Milton Bradley? Really?
Would you really want that kind of cancer on your team? I don’t see nearly enough potential value from him to outweigh the negatives that he brings to your team. This is a guy that has been chased off his own team more than once in his career. You can keep him.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Milton Bradley....
Fine…
Then the Cards need to find someone with a better OBP than Skip’s .353. You can not have a good team with your second best OBP guy carrying a .353 OBP.
by ICbirdfan on Oct 22, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This team is in need of ...
a #2 and #4 hitter. I think that Skip’s OBP is on-par with the best we’ve put out there in the lead-off position since Fernando Vina put up a .380 in 2000. Since then, Skip’s .364 this year is the best we’ve had, and typically we’ve been getting something in the .350s.
If Molina and Ryan are hitting 7 & 8 respectively, then the OBPs they’re putting up are respectable, as well. Obviously, I’m not worried about the 3-hole.
Depending on Ludwick’s recovery this coming year and Rasmus’ improvement, we need a high OBP guy for the two hole and a dangerous clean-up hitter. The problem is that neither probably describes David Freese, so unless Rasmus can take over the 2 spot with Freese in the 6, the Cards will have an OBP problem. They still are going to have to sign a high OPS guy for that 4-hole. Holliday is probably the best bet, and it just goes downhill from there. I don’t think they have an internal option, and the externals are going to be expensive.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope y'all canned your fruit
we’re gonna need more pies
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
even bernie finally agrees
obp was the teams biggest impediment, particularly at 2
no one on the current roster looks to change that, even if the overly aggressive approach at the plate improves
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Oct 22, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can't help thinking
1. cubs fixate on desperately needing a lefty bat
2. free up salary via DeRosa
3. acquire Milton Bradley
….surely something can be learned from this.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
good point....
After we let DeRosa walk, we TOTALLY need to trade for Milton Bradley!
by mtalken on Oct 22, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that would eliminate some of his GIDP's if he was lead off...
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 22, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's actually an interesting point.
The value of that is limited, but I bet it does have some value.
Offseason Rumors : Me :: Unicorn Blood : Voldemort
by Cardinals645 on Oct 22, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This projection does show how important Holliday is.
by ICbirdfan on Oct 22, 2009 1:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
holliday's importance
ends at 18M
above that, $ need to go improving in other areas because pitching around 2 guys isn’t that more difficult than pitching around 1 guy
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Oct 22, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
reccing
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cage Match question of the day
Chris Carpenter v. Milton Bradley.
Could Carp A) bring him in line? Or would this just be B) Khalilasm*?
And would you put him in the clubhouse given either A) or B)?
* Referring to his non-socialness only, though at the end even Khalil showed signs of having joined in the man stew.
Previous cage match questions: Cliff Lee, Brett Myers, Albert Pujols (kinda).
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 1:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What kind of luggage do you pack your board games in?
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is slightly more interesting
because cubs teammates tried to talk to the guy, to no avail
and he does have an actual recorded history of altercations, including with a coach
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's a really disappointing thing to read.
I don’t want to get all psycho-babble on anybody, but this guy has some really serious personal hang-ups that he needs to resolve. I wouldn’t be happy about playing for the Cubs (j/k); but I’m surprised at the way he seemed to take it out on his teammates. Until this guy gets some help to deal with the pent-up anger that he has, he’s not really going to benefit any team. More importantly, he’s going to have a very unhappy life like this.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Milton
I don’t think he is necessarilly an ideal fit… I think there is something to be said for the way he probably has some negative effect on a team OFF the field.
I don’t know anyone who has been able to quantify how many wins Milton cost’s a team due to his OFF field actions.
I just wanted to point out he has good OBP skills (perfect to hit 2 in front of Albert). Milton is more of an OBP than power guy, but he has the power to burn a team that wants to throw the ball down the middle as to not walk a guy in front of Albert. He is what Tony wanted out of Chris Duncan in the two hole, excpet Bradley is better hitter than Duncan.
I just want to you to note Milton has a supposed bad year in Chicago and still put up a .378 OBP. Ryan Ludwick had a break out year in 2008 and put up a .375 OBP. I think Milton’s is more likely to improve and repeatable than Ludwicks.
by ICbirdfan on Oct 22, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh yeah also if I ever see Brendan Ryan bat #2 again I may turn off the TV.
I like the guy but he should not ever hit in front of Albert.
by ICbirdfan on Oct 22, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I acknowledge that the guy gets on-base.
However, it’s been a long time since he was on a winning ball club, and I don’t think that’s a coincidence. The other problem is that we can’t fill LF w/ a 2 hitter this year, unless you can find me a 3B that can fill the 4-hole. If Freese is the guy for 3B next year, then LF has to be filled with a clean-up hitter. Ludwick is solid as a #5 guy, and I think Rasmus is going to have to improve his OBP to fill the spot ahead of Pujols. Freese is going to have to fill the 6-hole, and that’s going to be your lineup. I think we need Holliday (or nearest approximation) more than I originally thought.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you and I agree... etp_stl
Holliday is very critical looking at the team going forward.
I think Colby will improve a bunch at least I hope. I don’t think 2010 Colby will necessarilly be a stud. I think 2011 Colby could be which may make him an ideall 2 hole guy.
I just can’t count on Luddy/Craig to throw up a .390+ OBP like Holliday.
by ICbirdfan on Oct 22, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
also, i heard roy halladay sucks as a human being, because when have
the blue jays won anything?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 22, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seriously?
Do you really see this as an analogous situation, or are you trying to just be flippant? I’m not saying that Milton Bradley is a obviously a jerk because his teams don’t win. It’s pretty well established that Milton Bradley is a jerk, and he doesn’t seem to help his teams win. Baseball is a 25-man sport, so no, I don’t think he’s the whole reason. However, he is a constant distraction on every team he’s been on with the exception of the Rangers. It seems like it’s the only place he’s been happy, and maybe he’d be best served to go back.
Jeff Kent is generally considered a jerk, but he always seemed to find a way onto teams that won. Maybe it’s just dumb luck, but I don’t particularly like working with jerks. I assume MLB players feel the same way, and it can definitely affect your long term attitude towards your job and organization.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he's saying it's silly to think that a player on a team that never makes the playoffs
must have some sort of quality about him that makes him a detriment to his team. Tim Lincecum, Zack Greinke, Hanley Ramirez, etc. all fall in this category.
John Smoltz for Cardinals' closer 2010!!
by jd is legend on Oct 22, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's not what I had said, though.
That’s why his statement doesn’t work. I did not and would not claim that playing for a loser means you’re a jerk. I liked Andre Dawson. Ernie Banks was an all-around good guy.
I’m saying that Milton Bradley is NOT a good guy, and it has relegated him to teams that haven’t been successful since his blow-ups in LA. I’m not interested in bringing him to St. Louis. I’d prefer we stick to players that bring attention based on their play on the field rather than their temper tantrums.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lugo had no evidence of problems in the clubhouse
there was evidence that the fans and media pilloried him for the Stone Glove. Francona also had a difference of opinion about whether he ought to be defending him and so forth. The Sauks thought they had a plus on defense and offense, mis-evaluated him plus the surgery, overpaid him, and Lugo got slammed for it. Hence the friction. Hence the “change of scenery.”
Read the links I provided. That’s every. Single. Teammate. of Milton Bradley’s having nothing good to say about him. They couldn’t even make something up.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
cubs teammates, i should say
some of them like him, from some of his many teams.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
cubs teammates, i should say
some of them like him, from some of his many teams.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the hell, SBN'd.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not condoning it, but ...
that was 6 years ago. I couldn’t find evidence that he was convicted with a quick search, and I haven’t heard of any such incidences since then.
He alledgedly did a really crappy thing 6 years ago. Explain to me when Lugo has done that on or off the field since then. It is, again, not an analogous situation to what I was talking about.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So conviction is the only tell-tell signs of douchness?
What has Milton been convicted of?
by Tom_Lawless_Bat_Flip on Oct 22, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did you read anything but the conviction statement?
Pay attention. Milton Bradley has exploded at fans, coaches, other players, and reporters time and again. He’s now apparently a sullen individual that seems convinced that everyone is out to get him.
You bring up a situation that happened once in a person’s life when he was considerably younger than he is now, and say “see, Lugo’s a shit, too.” Well, you’re right. Lugo did a shitty thing, but it is possible to learn from doing a shitty thing. He hasn’t done a similar thing since.
In addition, I’ve SEEN Milton Bradley act like an ass, and I’ve READ/HEARD the shitty things he’s said repeatedly. The conviction piece is important when you are reading a reported story about a situation in which you were not involved. It is important that the legal system did not convict him of these charges, and I’ve seen the emotions that get involved in personal relationships. Sometimes the initial reports don’t carry through when the emotions subside.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It wasn't "emotions" that got involved with his wife's head.
It was a car hood.
Allegedly.
by Tom_Lawless_Bat_Flip on Oct 22, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm done with this.
Clearly, you’re only interested in making your point that Lugo beat up his wife once. Fine. Noted. It has little to nothing to do with the discussion that was being held.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not condoning it, but ...
that was 6 years ago. I couldn’t find evidence that he was convicted with a quick search, and I haven’t heard of any such incidences since then.
He alledgedly did a really crappy thing 6 years ago. Explain to me when Lugo has done that on or off the field since then. It is, again, not an analogous situation to what I was talking about.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
MB has been on 4 different teams that have gone to the Post Season
which is the same as everyones favorite winner David Eckstien, so i would say if you have a good team it doesnt matter much but if you dont people think it matters more…
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 22, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
David does wear two rings, though.
MB doesn’t wear any, so I’m not sure that’s a perfect comparison.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
clearly his character was what held them back.
this is the most preposterous substitution of causation for correlation.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 22, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Calm down.
It was a joke. I don’t believe Eckstein was the reason the ‘02 Angels or the ’06 Cards won the World Series. I don’t think Bradley is the reason his teams didn’t win the World Series any of those 4 years.
Sometimes I just like being a shit-disturber, though.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what wasn't calm about my response?
i just said that it was a silly argument.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 22, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
CALM DOWN TOM
WE ARE ALL FRIENDS HERE
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 22, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually Eckstein WAS the reason the 2006 team won.
That’s why he has the 2006 WS MVP Trophy. Duh.
Offseason Rumors : Me :: Unicorn Blood : Voldemort
by Cardinals645 on Oct 22, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you ask me,
A patch of grass in centerfield was a worthy candidate too.
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 22, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh good memories....
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let us not forget the REAL MVP of the '06 WS
The Tigers’ pitching staff
John Smoltz for Cardinals' closer 2010!!
by jd is legend on Oct 22, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fixed
Let us not forget the REAL MVP of the ‘06 WS The Tigers’ pitching staff Scott Rolen
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
by scoot on Oct 22, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought it was ...
whoever kept yelling “Hey! Throw it over here!” at their pitching staff.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was sarcasm, if that was unclear.
It’s hard to tell from your post if I’m getting made fun of or if you’re just joining in the sarcasm.
Offseason Rumors : Me :: Unicorn Blood : Voldemort
by Cardinals645 on Oct 22, 2009 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This entire thread has been like this.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Oct 22, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's one big ass mess
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 23, 2009 4:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this conversation is so retarded
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he may just be that rare guy
who knows how to play baseball, but can’t mentally handle all the stuff that comes with baseball. except…. if that includes one’s teammates …
Around the middle of the season, Bradley told a reporter he felt “isolated” in the clubhouse.
“I think for the most part that was his choice,”said Reed Johnson, whom Bradley once gave credit for getting in his face and helping straighten him out — however temporary.
…. like I said, even Khalil tried to include himself in the fray, and that’s the most inward-looking guy you’d probably meet who’s in a public job like that, and not in his mom’s basement. Baseball is a team sport. The type of baseball that’s played in STL, Albert-or-no-Albert, relies on the strength of the team, not any one part.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Carp throws 96
The same athleticism that generates that velocity almost certainly could be used for some unbelievable punching power. Plus the reach advantage and Carp could jab him to death to set up the straight right.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 22, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh, reach! i wonder where we can stats for that....
MB listed at 6’0" 225
and as we know
Chris Carpenter 6’6" 230
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trade of the Decade: Mulder for Haren
f u, mlbtr
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 1:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
that link leads to a blank page anyhow.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was a pretty big trade
I agree with their assessment
John Smoltz for Cardinals' closer 2010!!
by jd is legend on Oct 22, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
seriously
We got Mark Mulder for literally nobody.
by brackenthebox on Oct 22, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
awesome.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
by rocKStark5 on Oct 22, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
poor Kiko.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 22, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dont let Danup
see you talking about Daric Barton that way…
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 22, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
when the cats away
the mice can make disparaging comments about former prospect-crushes
by brackenthebox on Oct 22, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
someone's not getting pocky, I guess
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dammit bracken,
if you ruin this for us, so help me…!
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 22, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rec for this whole conversation.
Starting with ‘We got Mark Mulder for literally nobody’. Nice. And classy.
Offseason Rumors : Me :: Unicorn Blood : Voldemort
by Cardinals645 on Oct 22, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you guys see it as unreasonable ...
to expect at least a .360 OBP from Colby Rasmus this year? I think we’re going to need that, but it looks like he hasn’t put up that kind of OBP since AA. Does he somehow project to that standard at the ML level? If not, I think you’ll be looking at Ryan or Freese trying to hit in the 2 spot, and that sounds like a long season to me.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 2:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Put Luddy or Holliday in 2 spot
or whoever ends up playing LF
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 22, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah!
That’s what I’ve been hoping since the Holliday acquisition. I expected the lineup to be Schu/Lugo (depending on LH or RH), Holliday, Pujols, Ludwick. Holliday would have seen more juicy fastballs and Ludwick has proven his RBI knack. I don’t know why TLR abondoned his “pop in the 2-hole” method. I’m sure he has an explanation, but it was a head-scratcher to me.
by Matt Bug on Oct 22, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We've seen this before, but it won't happen that way.
There is no way that LaRussa is going to remove a run producer from the 4-hole to put him in the 2-hole. Yes, he prefers “damage” in the 2-hole, but you are basically robbing Peter to pay Paul with this idea.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hollidsy should have batted second
and the pitcher 8th. TLR should have at least tried it during the tinkering month of September. Or Holliday 3rd in front of apu, but THAT tony would never consider.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 22, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Skip leadoff
Pujols second, Holliday third, Ludwick fourth, Rasmus fifth, Yadi sixth, Freese seventh, pitcher eight, Boog ninth.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 22, 2009 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The best thing to do
would be to put Skip, Rasmus, Holliday, and Pujols at the top in that order.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 22, 2009 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Colby swings too much.
If he cuts his swing rate to 80% of its current level and kept his contact and otherwise plate discipline the same, he’d have a shot at a decent OBP and hitting 280-300.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 22, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
from your lips to [name of 2010 hitting coach]'s ears.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 22, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hal McRae's
John Smoltz for Cardinals' closer 2010!!
by jd is legend on Oct 22, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
FLAGGED!!!
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 22, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You know it's true
John Smoltz for Cardinals' closer 2010!!
by jd is legend on Oct 22, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Expecting is unreasonable.
But it IS a feasible hope.
Offseason Rumors : Me :: Unicorn Blood : Voldemort
by Cardinals645 on Oct 22, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
First, the projections:
I agree with most of the VEB world, i.e., Colby Rasmus’ projection is the one that really sticks out like a sore thumb. I’m not wagering on a “breakout” season, but I do expect vast improvement from Colby in every category – defense, offense, baserunning, etc. The kid is a very cool customer for a hot-shot prospect. I was really impressed w/his patience at the plate for a rookie. The last time we saw similar patience from a rookie, his name was Pujols. He did have his share of rookie mistakes, but he showed marked improvement over the course of the season and doesn’t seem to get rattled at all. If he stays healthy, he outperforms the James numbers easily.
I also think Yadi doesn’t take a step back…at least not that far. He’s worked to hard to make himself a good hitter and I see no reason he will continue to do so.
by Matt Bug on Oct 22, 2009 2:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, I wasn't impressed by his supposed "patience"
He literally went over a month without taking a walk. How is that patient? And ironically, that was the only month he hit well in.
And he actually got worse as the year went on, save the playoffs.
I think people are seeing in Rasmus things that just aren’t/weren’t there. Certainly not a patience at the plate even remotely near Pujols.
by DiscoJer on Oct 22, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he'll be more patient next year
because he’ll be less anxious (to prove he was worth the hype), IMO.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 22, 2009 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brett Meyers
I found this post-game celebration footage pretty funny.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 22, 2009 2:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Now, Mike Cameron...
No idea why he was included. Expected FA signing? No, thanks. The best thing he could do for Cards fans is keep the diamond boxes cool with all that whiffing he’ll be doing at home plate. Next, please.
by Matt Bug on Oct 22, 2009 2:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
people like him because of his defense
but I’m starting to re-think my preference there
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 22, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
People also like Cameron. . .
because he crushes lefties.
I suspect that he will be too expensive to economically fill that role as the short-side of a platoon, but he is a player that can certainly help a team if he is cast in the right role.
Heck, if Colby starts to hit lefties, you put Colby or Cameron in LF against lefties, the other in CF, and Ludwick in RF. And then all you have to look for is a corner outfielder who (only) crushes righties. Those guys are a lot easier to find (and cheaper) than a Matt Holliday.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 22, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We discussed the solution on previous threads...
…and if you want a 4th OF who hits lefties well, the solution is Gabe Kapler. No, he’s not a superstar name. But that’s a good thing. He’ll be relatively cheap and fill the Cards’ needs very, very nicely.
by Matt Bug on Oct 22, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
gabe kapler's lifetime war is 2.2.
in five out of eight seasons mike cameron has been worth at least 4 WAR for a cumulative 29.6 WAR. they’re not comparable players.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 22, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
look at playing time Kapler has played and when you factor in that he would only cost $1M
It becomes comparable. Kapler is a solid player if we can sign Holliday
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 22, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
okay, that's a separate issue.
I’m thinking of cameron as a signing in lieu of holliday or as an alternative if he won’t sign. cameron is not in the budget if we sign holliday.
i sure don’t agree that cameron and kapler are at all equivalent, but if we get anybody to help us in the OF after signing holliday, yeah, we’d be looking at a kapler/reed johnson type.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 22, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have Kapler slotted as a 4th OFer that also can play CF at times
Not as the main LFer
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 22, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so you discount rasmus and yadi projections
yet accept those of cameron?
No problem with kapler as 4th OF if that’s what you want, but cameron would be starting LF’er, not a 4th OF.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 22, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
I definitely want someone that crushes lefties
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 22, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, strikeouts make you an unproductive player, for sure.
Sincerely,
Adam Dunn
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 22, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dunn
Sucks. How many championship teams has he been on? The guy hits bombs consistently, true. But I wouldn’t want him on my team. Seriously. He’s dead weight.
The Dunn/Cameron comparison is off-base anyway. Cameron’s power/production is not even in the same universe as premier sluggers like Dunn.
by Matt Bug on Oct 22, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but Cameron
saves a lot more runs than Dunn gives up.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 22, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dunn does not suck
John Smoltz for Cardinals' closer 2010!!
by jd is legend on Oct 22, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hating America sucks;
ergo Adam Dunn sucks.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan Fucking Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 22, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
...at hitting.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 22, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he might be a good enough hitter to finally win that (DH) GG some day.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 22, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
... and striking out
Best moment I've ever seen at a game in person
Looking forward to Cardinals baseball in 2010!
by zoomzoomj88 on Oct 22, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
outs are outs!
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 22, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess Ryan Howard wasn't really the 2006 MVP
Oh wait, he actually wasn’t really the 2006 MVP.
CURSE YOU PHILLIIIIIIIEEESSSS
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 22, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Amendment:
“Adam Dunn is good at plate-appearing.”
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 22, 2009 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ahahaha
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
how many good pitching staffs
or defenses or offenses has Dunn played with? that is why he doesnt have a chamionship he pulls more than his weight, and its a lot of weight.
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 22, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In his earlier years...
The Reds weren’t that bad. Where are you going to put Adam Dunn? LF? Then expect defense just a little better than Manny Ramirez (nightmare). Hey, if you’re building your fantasy baseball team, Adam Dunn has a ton of value. Go for it. But if you’re building a real-life baseball team, I don’t need a guy who loafs, lacks defensive skill, provides no leadership, and who’s main talent is hitting home runs when they don’t count for much.
by Matt Bug on Oct 22, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he loafs and doesn't lead?
really?
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 22, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well technically
he LEADS the league in LOAFING so there goes his theory…
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 22, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i forget sometimes but
when is it that HR dont count for much? when your team is behind and you need to score runs? is that when they dont count because the Nats and Reds were in that situation a lot and he hit many HR in those situations.
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 22, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ahhh the Nats and Reds....
is a BB/K% of 0.66 bad?
32.4% K
Granted Mark Reynolds’s was 0.34, but that’s with an 11.6% walk rate.
38.6% K
Rick Ankiel’s 2009:
26.6% K
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Rick walked like Dunn
nobody would care about his k’s. Outs be outs.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 22, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Rick walked like Dunn
nobody would care about his k’s. Outs be outs.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 22, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
SBN is screwing with us
s’true. 6.5% vs 17.5% BB%
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Last comment on Dunn, then I'm "done" ;)
He’s consistently in the top ten in HRs, but only (barely) cracked the top ten in RBIs twice: 2007 (10th) and 2009 (9th). And he hit in the middle of a good offensive lineup for years. In one of the most hitter-friendly parks in all of baseball. That’s not clutch. If a guy is my superstar slugger, that’s not good enough RBI production.
by Matt Bug on Oct 22, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hfs.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 22, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Seconded.
When the fall is all that's left, it matters a great deal.
by the red baron on Oct 22, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm guessing his comments are jokes?
They’re so close to almost being plausible, but I’m still leaning toward trolling.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Oct 22, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I actually agree, in a way (please read before dismissal!).
He’s right in that Dunn is much better at hitting HR than at knocking in baserunners.
He is, however, still REALLY FREAKING GOOD at both.
Of course Dunn is still a great batter, but he’s even better at hitting HR. (His defense is putrid though, and I think there are better options.)
Offseason Rumors : Me :: Unicorn Blood : Voldemort
by Cardinals645 on Oct 22, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dunn doesn't get a lot of RBIs in comparison to HRs
Because he walks so much. That isn’t a bad thing because he will make fewer outs and thus score more runs, but it is what it is.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 22, 2009 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well that's true, but also:
The percentage of his hits that are HR is 28.7% in his career.
That, combined with a low BA, just means he’s not going to have as many RBIs as he could have.
That said, the last time he didn’t reach 100 was 2006, and he still had 92.
Despite his obviousl flaws, the guy is a beast, and if he could field, I would love to have him on the Cardinals.
Offseason Rumors : Me :: Unicorn Blood : Voldemort
by Cardinals645 on Oct 22, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He'd have more RBIs
if he had more talent in front of him.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 22, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yea, that too. So would Albert.
I’m just saying, he’d have more R and RBI if more of his strikeouts were doubles and singles. I think that’s hard to disagree with.
And I will say again, I would love to have his bat in this lineup, I’m just wary of his glove, NOT his offensive production.
Basically Dunn is in Top 10 HR hitters, but “just” Top 20 Run producers. (#’s just a guess/example).
Offseason Rumors : Me :: Unicorn Blood : Voldemort
by Cardinals645 on Oct 22, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How he makes his outs is largely irrelevant
The fact that he makes outs so rarely is what is key.
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 22, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree.
Adam Dunn is an excellent batsman. His OBP is extremely valuable, as is his SLG.
However he is consistently good, but not Top 50 good at knocking in the batters on-base in front of him.
Look at the numbers in any year you choose (and you must look at multiple years since some of this is due to luck/ performance with RISP). Dunn is not a top OBI% man in any year. Usually he’s between 70-100, sometimes lower.
Those are the links from 2009-2006, here is 2005 and 2004, which encompasses all of his 100 RBI seasons.
What does this mean? Mostly just that he might be better off in the #2 spot than the #4 spot. He’s still an extremely valuable hitter, but he’s always going to have fewer RBI than you’d expect because he’s an all or nothing hitter.
Note: I put the min. PA as 464 in 2008 so that his CIN playing time will show up. His time in AZ that year actually brought his OBI% down to 14.7% though. There are a lot of things to consider in looking at these numbers though, and I have to go to class. Maybe I’ll do a fanpost and go more in depth, but for now this is it.
Offseason Rumors : Me :: Unicorn Blood : Voldemort
by Cardinals645 on Oct 22, 2009 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes, an out is an out
generally (sacrifices), but two outs (DP’s) are another matter. If Dunn cut his K’s in half but replaced them with GIDP’s, maybe that would make some people happier.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 22, 2009 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I generally agree, but ...
there are definitely productive outs. Putting the ball in play can result in worse outcomes (DPs), but it also puts pressure on the defense to make a play that doesn’t exist during a K. Now the fact that Dunn carries nearly a career .400 OBP gives him some leeway in my book, but this team seemed to be quite poor in getting runners home from 3rd w/ fewer than two outs. A K doesn’t help that, and a BB doesn’t particularly, either.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Must we re-hash this discussion?
Already they’ve above talked about Dunn’s ability to not make outs. It’s more valuable than “making productive outs”.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 22, 2009 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, productive outs are a load of crap
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/yet-another-productive-outs-article/
-.476 correlation to W%.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 22, 2009 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I should bookmark this.
I was looking and failing to find it on google.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 22, 2009 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, actually I was googling for a run expectancy matrix or something,
because sometimes people understand better with show-and-tell.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 22, 2009 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Many say it’s a baseball sin to waste your allotted 27, but teams like the Tigers say they’re the key to success.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 22, 2009 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
From your link
the only time when a productive out is more valuable than trying to get on base — which includes the risks of not making a productive out — is when there’s a runner on third with one out.
This is the exact situation that I referenced by “productive out.” Consequently, by your own backing article, you’ve proven what my primary point was. I need a guy that gets the runner home from 3B with fewer than two outs. I wasn’t talking about having him sac bunt to move a runner from 1B to 2B.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, those situations come up far less
Than when you would want a guy to not make an out, or hit a home run
by vivaelpujols on Oct 22, 2009 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dunn hits almost 50% fly balls.
I assume many of those will be productive in that situation.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 22, 2009 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would think so, as well.
I’m not disparaging Adam Dunn. I was commenting theoretically regarding the statement earlier that “it doesn’t matter how you make the out.” In some cases, it certainly does. I’m not saying that you try to base personnel decisions around that skillset.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not
a runner on third with no outs?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you have no outs your run expectancy is so high,
it’s probably worse no matter how you make an out.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 22, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
eh, maybe
if you have three replacement level hitters, i’d guess you have something like an 80% chance of scoring the run (completely off the top of my head)
but the “productive outs” ie sac flies, are almost always an attempt to get on anyway. the one exception being the squeeze
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
vivaelpujols
thanks for the link. While I believe that there is such a thing as a productive out, I think there are far fewer than the stats indicate, yet that their correlation to W% is not nearly as bad as -.476.
My problem is with the definition, For example, one out, runner on third, batter makes an out but the run scores. This is by definition always a productive out, yet I believe it depends on the situation. A tie game in the 8th, for instance, i call it a productive out. However, if the team in the field has a sizeable lead in the 8th inning and concedes the run for the out (call it fielders indifference), that is not very productive because the out is more valuable than the run. And there are so many of these meaningless runs, with the WE of the leading team already above 90%, that it must skew that correlation to W%.
What do you think? If we redefined productive out to include only situations in which the run was more valuable than the out, would the correlation to W% increase even though the total number of outs classified as productive decreased? Just seems to me that losing teams will make a disproportionate number of productive outs by current definition.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 23, 2009 7:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
addendum to vivaelpujols
This current definition of productive out is analagous to a false premise, so even the inscrutable methodology of sabermetrics (logic) will still draw us to a false conclusion.
By the way, do you know anything about the origin of this definition?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 23, 2009 7:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
gotta have baserunners to have rbis
and he’s been on bad teams (duh)
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 22, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh boy
Not to outright dismiss people, but VEB probably isn’t for RBI disciples.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 22, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I figured that would draw ire from someone.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Should draw ire from everyone
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 22, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what do you consider
“a good offensive lineup”? becasue i dont see any since Dunn started playing…the Reds have only outscored the Cardinals once in 10 years and we all know about the Nationals…
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 22, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
MAYBE IF HE WERE A GOOD PLAYER
THERE WOULD BE MORE PEOPLE ON BASE WHEN HE HIT HIS HOME RUNS
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I MEAN THE HOME RUNS DON'T COUNT ANYWAY SO WHAT' THE POINT
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What?
OPSing over .900 with men on is NOT what one would consider “good,” is it?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 22, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wat
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm having a really hard time keeping track of the irony- and sarcasm-fails today.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 22, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i hope the
all caps cruise control to cool would help point out my sarcasm
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hoped*
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sorry.
I was joining in with more sarcasm. That’s why I used all caps with “NOT.” I recognized your sarcasm and was simply piling on, which may be unsportsmanlike now that I think about it. Sorry about that.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 22, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
When do home runs not count for much?
I’m asking seriously. I’m not a huge Adam Dunn fan, but I think often the case against him is overblown and contains some questionable assumptions. I think Adam Dunn’s defense might just be so bad that it’s not worth having him on the team unless he’s a 1B or a DH. That said I can’t possibly figure out why you wouldn’t want a player like Dunn on your team if you have an opening at one of those spots.
Dunn has played on a bunch of Reds teams with losing records, a Diamondbacks team that went 82-80, and the Washington Nationals (no explanation needed there). None of those teams were good enough out side of him that some sort of “extra effort” was going to make them a good team. But like you say, it’s OK to agree or disagree on this.
Back to my main question (man I’m getting long-winded here, sorry about that); when do homeruns ever “not count for something”? I think this is an interesting philosophical question as a baseball fan. My thought process goes like this; any homerun scores at least one guaranteed run. Any run scored by the team increases the chance of winning the game. Therefore no run is completely without value, even when you’re getting shellacked and it’s late in the game. Teams managed to come from behind and win games fairly often, and every win matters when it comes to qualifying for the post-season (until you’ve clinched it obviously). Even if I thought some homeruns truly “didn’t matter,”I really don’t think any players wait to hit their homeruns when they “don’t matter” just to pad their stats, nor do I think any players really are only able to hit homeruns when they “don’t matter”.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 22, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it will matter on your lineup
do you have one home run hitter? do you have two? when do they hit? do you have guys on base ahead of that home run?
also, holy line breaks….
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, sorry about the line breaks
I think I actually got a little unlucky with the paragraphs; I am certain I pressed enter a few times while writing that.
From now on I’ll try to remember to double space things more.
Anyway, I just don’t buy the argument that some players “only hit homers when it doesn’t matter” or that homeruns can possibly not help you. Sure, there are questions about optimizing your lineup and whatnot to get the most out of the homers, that’s clear I think.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 22, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
SBN is screwing with all of us
it is a strange day indeed.
some players may in fact do that, though. I think there’s not enough data to support it one way or the other.
a very interesting question. and a philosophical one… do we want baseball to look like the Yankees and Phillies, or more like the Twins?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
whatever wins.
(or “should win” the most)
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
by rocKStark5 on Oct 22, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think he means Cardinals baseball
he means baseball (right?).
by brackenthebox on Oct 22, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's an easier question.
It means he hits a lot of non-clutch bombs. I could look up his clutch stats, but I think the RBI totals vs. HR totals already give us some insight. Ryan Howard would be a good example of someone the opposite of Dunn. He regularly contends for the RBI crown. True, Howard has three of the best table-setters hitting in front of him, but he still finds a way to knock guys in via sac fly, double, etc., i.e., without relying solely on the long-ball. Fielder, Pujols, and Berkman are other good examples.
It’s important to team play, because when your slugger is up there with RISP, the spotlight is on. It can really affect team/fan morale. You don’t want the guy choking. A clutch RBI gives your fans/team an emotional/confidence boost that is immeasurable.
by Matt Bug on Oct 22, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think part of it might be that some of those guys are just more complete hitters than Dunn to begin with
Though latter-day Ryan Howard might now qualify… he’s looked more and more like Adam Dun with a better supporting cast since 2006.
Anyway, Fielder, Pujols, Berkman, and the like are all just better hitters than Adam Dunn, I don’t think that’s disputable. They all hit more higher average for one thing. But Adam Dun manages to be very productive despite his shortcomings, and I would never want to gloss over his shortcomings merely because he has shiny HR totals. I would not want to swap out Pujols or Berkman for Dunn at all.
Adam Dunn gets a hell of a lot out of his limited skill set, and I just don’t understand why people see him as negatively as they do.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 22, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ack. I meant, "Ryan Howard might not qualify" anymore.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 22, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh Matt you are so right
Dunn can’t be “complete player” because he doesn’t make the other players on his team get on base ahead of him.
No to Dunn. (sarcasm)
by OCCardsFan on Oct 22, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hasn't "clutch" been pretty much proven
to be BS? I thought we’ve been through this. I don’t have time to search the archives, but there really is no such thing as clutch is there. Luck…that makes more sense.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan Fucking Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 22, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No.
Some players are clutch; some are not. I mean, c’mon, A-Rod is clearly not clutch. David Ortiz clearly is.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 22, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know this is sarcasm (right)
But A-Rod has better numbers in the playoffs than Jeter
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 22, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
regression happens to all.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
by rocKStark5 on Oct 22, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes. Sarcasm.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 22, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
k fuckers.
2nd time i spit sunflower seeds on my work monitor.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
by rocKStark5 on Oct 22, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
where do you normally spit them?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 22, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
don't ask him those kind of questions
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Oct 22, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
rick ankiel
is on line 2 for you
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ladies and Gentleman, we should be honoured, and none of us have realised it yet.
The day has finally come: Joe Morgan is now a member of El Vivi Birders.
When the fall is all that's left, it matters a great deal.
by the red baron on Oct 22, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ken Tremendous where art thou?
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 22, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
At least Matt is cosistent with his analysis
John Smoltz for Cardinals' closer 2010!!
by jd is legend on Oct 22, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There aren't any truly great SBN users anymore
Not like the Cincinnati posters in the 70’s. But I haven’t seen much of his analysis so I can’t say how cosistent he might be.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 22, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he's really just one bat and one arm from
having a shot at VEB’er of the year. If his list of all-time favorite players include any of Sheff, Cano, Tony Perez, or 1977, he is a lock
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 22, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't forget Davey Concepcion
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 22, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You believe in clutch stats,
but you’re still using RBI as an indicator of the value of a player?
WTF is going on here?
by spants on Oct 22, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
read on
“clogs the basepaths” is about to show up
by brackenthebox on Oct 22, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll say it
Adam Dunn would have caught the Holliday ball in Game 2
John Smoltz for Cardinals' closer 2010!!
by jd is legend on Oct 22, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It would have still counted. . .
if he had been able to hold on to it.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 22, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does it count if he swallows it?
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Oct 22, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not gonna touch this one
John Smoltz for Cardinals' closer 2010!!
by jd is legend on Oct 22, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I knew none of y'all could actually read that without that thought going through your minds.
Boys. (shakes head)
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Oct 22, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that thought process requires it to have gone through your
head too.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 22, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know.
I maybe should have added and commented about it. But I think it goes through most people’s minds. I just like shaking my head at boys.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Oct 22, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not's not the only thing you like shaking
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 23, 2009 4:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
f'in gdm.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Oct 23, 2009 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that would have been a lot funnier
without the epic grammar fail
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 23, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I figured it out.
But yes, it was pretty epic. Took me about a minute and reading it three times to get it.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Oct 23, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
f'in insonmia
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 23, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Boosh!
When the fall is all that's left, it matters a great deal.
by the red baron on Oct 22, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
/things heard in junior high health class
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 22, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It'd make his skin healthier
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 22, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ah, yes
those home runs that count. i agree. we need someone who hits home runs that do count. but do you think that albert could show dunn how to mke his home runs count?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder what people would think of Albert if he had played on the Nationals his whole career
Would he not be a “winner” or a “gamer”?
John Smoltz for Cardinals' closer 2010!!
by jd is legend on Oct 22, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
see: Ichiro.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So, Ernie Banks sucks then, too?
He didn’t win any championships, either. Andre Dawson didn’t win any championships, so I guess you wouldn’t have wanted him. That Griffey kid must’ve been crap, right? Alex Rodriguez clearly can’t play then, either, right?
The guy gets on base at a very high clip and hits the ball out of the ballpark a great deal. He’s not very good defensively, and that is a detraction. Consequently, I wouldn’t pay him like a a top-tier guy, but he is worth $10M/yr for me on my team any time he’d like to come.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
at first i thought this:
Dunn Sucks. How many championship teams has he been on?
was an attempt at irony. should’ve seen my reaction when i concluded otherwise. come on, people
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Catching a lot of heat for this one...
I realize many deserving, great players have not had the fortune of playing on championship teams. Todd Helton finally got to a WS in 2007. Junior’s road has been a bizarre mix of injuries and wrong place/wrong time. The Hawk had the misfortune of spending most of his career with the Expos/Cubs. Can’t expect much playoff time with those clubs. ;) Never saw Banks play, but again, he was denied thanks to the Cubs curse.
My point is that I don’t believe Adam Dunn has those “champion” qualities certain other players have. Some players make the players around them better – e.g., Pujols, Jeter…maybe even a lesser name like Jason Varitek a few years ago. An older example for Cardinals fans might be Bob Gibson. Each give everything they’ve got to win and not only have great baseball instincts, but they are vigilant competitors that rarely miss a beat in gameplay. That is to say, they are very good at evaluating in-game situations and knowing what it takes to give their team an edge to win. Maybe Adam Dunn evolves into that player someday. But thus far, from any games I’ve seen him play, he simply does not have that ability. I don’t hate the guy. I just don’t see him being a great asset to a team outside of hitting home runs and drawing walks – which doesn’t translate into the advantage it should, because he has no speed whatsoever and only clogs the basepaths (i.e., can never take that extra base so beneficial to NL baseball).
by Matt Bug on Oct 22, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
"clogs the basepaths"
It’s okay people, he’s being ironic!
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 22, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I feel like a Billy Madison quote is applicable here
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 22, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shampoo is better! I go on first and clean the hair!
Conditioner is better! I leave the hair silky and smoooooooth!
Is that what you were thinking?
John Smoltz for Cardinals' closer 2010!!
by jd is legend on Oct 22, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
This dude’s car is green. JD’s hair is red.
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 22, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK...this I can't make any sort of argument for.
Offseason Rumors : Me :: Unicorn Blood : Voldemort
by Cardinals645 on Oct 22, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Champion" Qualities
this is a very subjective term and I note that you, yourself can’t really seem to define it. Probably because it is a so-called “intangible.” Did Derek Jeter’s “champion” qualities leave him from 2001 through 2008? Did A-Rod’s magically manifest themselves this October? Did Pujols’ disappear after hoisting the 2006 trophy? Did Gibson’s leave him in the later innings of Game 7 during the 1968 World Series? Did Junior and Bonds not have that overall skill or game smarts, so they aren’t championship material? No, no, no, no, and of course not. All of the players listed are great at baseball. Lots of players who are and were great at baseball never played in, or, never won a World Series. Was it because they don’t have that indefinable “champion” aura to their game? Of course not. Adam Dunn hasn’t ever played on a good team. If he had signed witha different club this offseason, he might be playing right now, demonstrating a “championship” capability because he has good players around him including good pitchers.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 22, 2009 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
can't believe he tricked you into typing this out....
aren’t clogging of basepaths and clutchiness giveaways?
by Willie McGee's Twin on Oct 22, 2009 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
also, we need moar veteran presnece.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 22, 2009 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"clutchiness"?
Is that even a word? I’m disappointed you use my fave Cardinal player’s name in your VEB ID.
by Matt Bug on Oct 22, 2009 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OMG
all i have to say…OMG
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
by VolsnCards5 on Oct 22, 2009 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"OMG"?
Are you posting from the High School computer lab?
by Matt Bug on Oct 22, 2009 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OMG
we’re all in our parents’ basements. where’ve you been
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 22, 2009 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
nice to know you
goodbye
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
by scoot on Oct 22, 2009 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Remember when Incubus didn't suck?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 22, 2009 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ah, yes
the ol’ “get owned on the internet and then claim intellectual superiority” strategy
a classic
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the hilarious thing about it
the guy he is insulting will be going by “Doctor VolsnCards5” in a mere few months
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
by scoot on Oct 22, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Leadership is important, but ....
I’m not sure how that translates to “championship quality.” To discount the ability of a player to affect the focus, psyche, and looseness of the team seems to be a bit silly. Of course there are players that can help lead his/her team in any team sport.
However, they can’t suddenly create talent where there isn’t any. Dunn has consistently played for teams that have had gaping holes in talent at different areas of the game. Neither Reggie Jackson, Babe Ruth, nor Stan Musial could have turned the Washington Nationals into winners this year; so how could one blame Dunn for that? Well, you can’t.
But, the fact that Albert Pujols works with other teammates to help them improve their game, the fact that he works at all aspects of his game, and the aggresiveness that he displays in virtually all aspects of his game makes his teammates better, which helps his teams reach their full potential.
No, Jeter and Pujols didn’t lose these abilities, but I would say that A-Rod did learn how to deal with the pressure for the first time this year. It’s a process for most players, and I wouldn’t presume to judge Adam Dunn’s character in these situations until he’s actually given an opportunity to succeed or fail in them.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
/quote ....A-Rod did learn how to deal with the pressure for the first time this year. /endquote
ugh, will this meme ever die?
by FunkeeC on Oct 22, 2009 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, ...
you can be cute and flippant if you like, but the people around him say that he has been able to relax this year. The guy has carried the world on his shoulders for years. Fair, or not. He’s finally found a comfort level this year. I fully expect that they will win it all this year, but I don’t think the Yankees’ recent failures to reach the WS were his fault, either.
Do you simply think sports psychologists just suck money from people like leaches? The mental aspect is important, and A-Rod has had a helluva time in pinstripes. Some of it he’s caused, but most of he hasn’t. It’s good to see the guy settle in finally.
Then again, “Never feel sorry for a man with a plane” seems to fit the situation, as well.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
is this a trick question?
Do you simply think sports psychologists just suck money from people like leaches?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 22, 2009 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No.
I don’t understand how you can so discount the mental aspect of the game. Do you believe that Khalil Greene can’t physically play baseball anymore? I think that he has all the physical capabilities to play, but that he can’t reach the focus level he needs to be successful.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you do realize that arod has a better ops in the postseason per career than jeter does?
so does that mean jeter needs a sports psychologist too?
/me takes his ball and just walks away
by FunkeeC on Oct 22, 2009 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Arguing with you ....
has resulted in more immature responses than anyone I’ve ever had a discussion with on this board, so I fully appreciate that you took your ball home.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Could you please address his point about the OPS differential?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 22, 2009 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I did below in response to Merry Crasmus.
I’m simply not going to continue to discuss it with FunkeeC because of some of his responses on the subject.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just don't buy this
Doesn’t the fact that a 2 week hot streak put his postseason numbers right in line with his career numbers suggest that most likely the whole theme was a sham? How is this different than the 10 time all star that is hitting .200/.300/.300 in mid may and then makes the all star game, again, by July? Especially when you consider that he crushed the ball in the postseason in Seattle. And he crushed the ball in New York, in pinstripes, in 2004.
Peyton Manning wasn’t clutch, until he was. Phil Mickelson wasn’t clutch, until he was. John Elway couldn’t win the big one, until he did. Steve Young didn’t have it, until he did.
It’s the cheap easy theme to float out there to get people talking, and as a result it gets pinned on people that are not deserving much more often than it gets pinned on people that do.
by Merry CRasmus on Oct 22, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well, ...
I don’t care about golf, so I don’t know anything about Phil Mickelson. The Peyton Manning stuff never really made any sense to me, as they typically lost due to the pitiful defense.
Steve Young had bad timing in that the Cowboys were just a better all around team.
John Elway tried to play outside of his abilities to compensate for a lack of talent around him, and that is relatively analogous to what Rodriguez went through after being traded to NY. There is a difference between a guy simply having a down stretch in mid may. This guy has been pressured beyond the level that most people could perform through. I don’t fault him, and I’m glad to see him relax.
I also agree completely that the tag gets thrown around WAY too frequently, and that most of the time it doesn’t apply.

by 
