Holliday and Craig or DeRosa and Ludwick

by jjray on Oct 20, 2009 2:27 PM EDT

Here are the WPA numbers for Teixeira and Holliday from Fangraphs.

Teixeira

2006 1.14

2007 2.36

2008 5.87

2009 3.58

Holliday

2006 2.37

2007 4.64

2008 4.87

2009 3.51

Boras said Holliday is this year's Teixeira. Looking at the numbers, I might have to agree with him although I think Teixeira is the more valuable player. Mark Teixeira got $180 mill over 8 years ($22.5 million per season). It's a different economy out there and the Yankees may be the only team able to shell out that kind of money for a player like Teixeira. Let's say Holliday and Teixeira are really 3.5 WPA players as opposed 5 WPA players and that the Yankees overpaid. They always do.

All that said, one has to assume that Boras will find some GM to offer 6 years, $120 mill for Holliday. If that's what Holliday is worth, what will Pujols get? Let's put Pujols aside and focus on the Holliday issue in the short term. If our current payroll sits at $70 mill and we add Holliday, that's $90 mill. We still need 1 starting pitcher. Assume we go bargain basement for $5 mill plus incentives on Smoltz. Even if Dewitt is willing to swallow that $95 mill plus pill for 2010, how will he feel in 2011 when (with raises and arbitration) it swells to $100 mill? Then we have to find money thereafter to resign Albert Pujols? Even in the short term it gets troublesome. No dry powder to pickup even a midlevel player at the deadline to give the team a boost for the stretch.

One way to easy the payroll pressure from signing Holliday would be in RF. Trade Luddy and turn RF over to Craig / Mather / Jay. You save $5 mill and now have wiggle room with payroll down the stretch. If we don't sign Holliday, then one would assume they resign DeRosa and place him in LF as a stop gap. I think arguments can be made on both sides of the issue. Who would you rather have in the starting outfield: Holliday and Craig or DeRosa and Ludwick?

p.s. If option 1 is selected, the failsafe position (should the rookie platoon fail in RF) would be move Skip to right and plug Lugo in at 2B.

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Comments

I have absolutely no idea why this "trade ludwick" idea seems so compelling to people.

1. Ludwick is still going to be relatively cheap. The idea that you trade cost controlled assets to clear salary room sign expensive free agents is backward and nonsensical.

2. Ludwick is not being shopped. Even if he were, can we expect a GM to pay even for 2009 Ludwick? Not likely. There just isn’t much impetus behind anyone making a move for him, and if we sell low on Ludwick, how have we done ourselves a favor? His replacement could come in and perform, but more likely he’s a downgrade of at least 1 WAR. Then we still have to pay the crap out of legoman when we could easily recreate his aggregate performance for less money, less exposure, and with draft picks.

"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus

by hazel on Oct 20, 2009 3:54 PM EDT reply actions

mark my words

If the Cardinals let go of Ludwick before his time, doom will follow.

…wick.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Oct 20, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah

I don’t get it either.

CFIC's cardinal baseball 2009 mixtape

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 20, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions

its because...

he strikes out a lot and became a cancer to the lineup with 3 big strike out machines in a row holliday ludwick and derosa. he also did not have many extra base hits this year and almost all his damage was on bad pitchers. your not going to win many playoff games if one of your best players cant handle the pitching. but there are a lot of reasons to keep him too

by cardsforever on Oct 20, 2009 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions

ludwick had a career-low 21% K rate last year.

holliday had a 17.4% K rate last year. holliday was right in the middle of the pack, while luddy was not great but not awful — probably in the 70-80 percentile. derosa did strike out a fair amount.

i don’t know why we care so much about K rate; i care about OBP, mostly.

the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus

by tom s. on Oct 20, 2009 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions

well...

ludwick had a terrible OBP this year too…truthfully i dont think he is as valuable as his stats make him seem because he is just sooo bad against good pitchers most of the time

by cardsforever on Oct 20, 2009 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions

I think you should do a fanpost on this

I would like to see if Luddy is as bad as you think he is

Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Oct 20, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions

I think his stats disagree with your perception - haven't checked recently though

But I think you are on to something — lets trade him. No other GM will be able to figure out that “he is just sooo bad against good pitchers most of the time.” We should get a monster haul.

by Ray Lankford on Oct 21, 2009 8:49 AM EDT up reply actions

ludwick is good in clutch situations though

CFIC's cardinal baseball 2009 mixtape

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 21, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Cost controlled Ludwick

He’s got two arb years left. It’s “cost controlled” with a very small “c”. At $5+ mill in 2010, he has value … but not enough to land a valuable asset in return as you suggest. It would be a salary dump. That the price of freeing payroll.

by jjray on Oct 20, 2009 5:22 PM EDT reply actions

er

by vivaelpujols on Oct 20, 2009 5:30 PM EDT reply actions

signing Holliday would be like intentionally putting on some handcuffs before a fight

unless he really really wants to return here and gives us a good deal.

CFIC's cardinal baseball 2009 mixtape

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 20, 2009 5:32 PM EDT reply actions

+1

plus, i think they are going the right way with the luddite by keeping a short, 1-yr leash on his cost

"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension

by sportsman on Oct 24, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't think WPA tracks well as a predictive tool

so showing their yearly #s doesn’t mean much in interpreting what they are going to do. If you want to use WPA use it decontextualized (WPA/LI) which has a much better y-t-y correlation.

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by azruavatar on Oct 20, 2009 5:41 PM EDT reply actions

i think selling out on luddy would be selling awfully low right now.

a RF coming off a not-quite league average season is just not going to fetch very much.

the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus

by tom s. on Oct 20, 2009 6:00 PM EDT reply actions

ifwetradeludwickforcentsonthedollariwillflipmyshitandlosemymindwick

"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister

by VolsnCards5 on Oct 20, 2009 9:10 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

We're trying to improve the offense.

This was not a particularly strong offensive team even after the acquisition of Holliday. I believe that Freese and Rasmus will probably improve the production that we received at 3B and CF next year, but it seems like a lot of faith to believe that Craig, Jay, or Mather will just automatically match the production that Ludwick has provided. I’m not even convinced that you won’t see some regression from Ryan offensively.

So, at the end of the day, you are going to get roughly the same offensive production at an unsustainably high cost for a mid-to-low market team. If you could find me another .800 – .900 OPS guy to put in LF and a more established, shutdown closer, then I think this team would be significantly stronger than adding the 1.000+ OPS guy of Holliday at the expense of the pitching staff.

by etp_stl on Oct 21, 2009 12:16 AM EDT reply actions

How do you propose

acquiring a “.800 – .900 OPS guy to put in LF” in the FA market without ponying up a huge long-term contract? The FA outfielders just below Holliday in the market are still going to command huge LT deals. The only shot I see (withou giving away a huge LT contract) is resigning DeRosa, sticking him in LF and hoping he produces like 2008 for the Cubs. So you must be in the “DeRosa and Luckwick” camp.

A middle option would be to give Holliday a fat contract this offseason, keep Luckwick for 2010, then trade away Luckwick after the 2010 season to make payroll space to pay for the contract / arbitration increases due the players already on the roster. It gives you one year to hope somebody out of Craig, Mather, Jay (or D. Jones in Memphis) has a breakout year. Perhaps it’s just a fools errand to try to concoct ways for the team to keep both Holliday and Pujols thereby committing 45% of the team payroll to two players.

by jjray on Oct 21, 2009 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, ..

Bobby Abreu is 35. He is not going to receive a long term contract at that age.

Xavier Nady is coming off of his second TJ surgery, he probably won’t be commanding a long term contract.

Vlad Guerrero is 34 and becoming an injury risk, so he may not be able to garner a long term contract.

Gabe Kapler has faired much better in the NL, but his AL numbers will probably keep his price down.

Marlon Byrd is a possibility, but I’m a little afraid his numbers are due to Arlington inflation.

Mike Cameron is on the border of the type of player I’m talking about, and I can’t see a long term contract for him at his age.

I would also give Brian Giles an opportunity on a minor league contract to see if leaving San Diego will revive his offense, though his defense is not good.

Abreu and Guerrero will most likely command fairly high salaries, but I’m not sure you are talking about an $18M-$22M contract for either because of their ages. The others won’t be near that cost, nor will the contract length be handicapping.

by etp_stl on Oct 21, 2009 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions

abreu and guerrero

are you talking about yearly salary? Because both could conceivably get 2-3 year deals for 18-22.

"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."

by cardball on Oct 21, 2009 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Unlikely

by vivaelpujols on Oct 21, 2009 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions

conceivably

yes, unlikely, but I was just confused…and rightly so, looking below.

"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."

by cardball on Oct 21, 2009 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah.

I’m talking about yearly salaries. I don’t see Abreu pulling Manny money in a down economy. You could be right about Guerrero, but I think the injury risk will hold his cost down some. Yeah, I’m thinking probably 2-3 year deals there also, but there is a difference between $15M-$16M per year and $22M.

by etp_stl on Oct 21, 2009 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Vlad's OPS in 2009 was .794

That’s 3 years in a row his OPS declined. He’s not worth the contract he’ll command on the open market IMHO. Also, there is a $15m club option for 2009 on Vlad with a $3m buyout. Meaning it cost the Angels $12m in real money to have Vlad play for them in 2010. A real chance exists they exercise that option. There will be plenty of suitors for Abreu and he’ll get a multiyear deal.

If we don’t resign Holliday, we’ll get a better deal on a power hitting corner OF (at the end of his contract) via trade after the All-Star break. What do you want to bet the Nationals will be trying to dump Adam Dunn in 2010?

by jjray on Oct 22, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Adam is not better than Allen Craig,

Or possible even Rick Ankiel.

by vivaelpujols on Oct 22, 2009 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Come on

You can say that Dunn won’t be worth what he’ll cost and what he’s making, but that statement is absurd. Dunn OPSed .930 last season while hitting 38 HR. Allen Craig didn’t even do that in AAA. His MLE was 200 points behind Dunn’s. Ankiel was even worse.

I know that defense is important, and I Know that Dunn is probably best suited to play 1B or DH (where the Cardinals can’t play him, making him less valuable to StL than he would be to a team with gaps in those positions), but that is a massive gap in offense to make up.

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Oct 23, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions

I just thought it was too insane to reply to.

Must have been a joke without the blue ink.

by jjray on Oct 25, 2009 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Dunn not a good fit

Dunn is worth what he is making(10 mil for 2 more yrs if im correct) due to his absurd power and high OBP. But he isnt a good fit for the Cards. He is terrible defensively in LF and more importantly LEFT-HANDED which the Cards have plenty of already in Sch and Rasmus. Are we all not just a little tired of seeing mediocre leftys – Zack Duke, Manny Parra – look like Cy Young winners when they come to St. Louis. If you trade for Dunn that leaves LaRussa absolutely no options when a lefty faces the Cards.

by Redbird99_98 on Nov 17, 2009 4:32 AM EST reply actions