The 2010 rotation
by chuckb on Oct 18, 2009 12:20 PM EDT
Email
PrintSo John Smoltz would like to return to the Cardinals next year, huh? As of right now, the team appears to have 2 holes in the rotation, since Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Kyle Lohse will fill 3 rotation spots. If Smoltz returns, that leaves one spot available. It’s been generally assumed that either Mitch Boggs or Jaime Garcia would fill the other spot but Dan O’Neill, yesterday, suggested that either Blake Hawksworth or Kyle McClellan should be moved to the rotation. This is intriguing. AZ has long been on the "free K-Mac" bandwagon and, if nothing else, it would provide substantial depth for the 5th spot in the rotation.
I’m not sure which of Hawksworth or McClellan would make the better starter but I think creating a competition in spring training between them, Garcia, and Boggs for the 5th spot is a pretty good idea. The "losers" could move to the pen (where we’re going to need to make some changes anyway) and provide reinforcements in case Carp, Lohse, Smoltz, or Smoltz’s replacement end up on the D.L. This season the Cards used 9 starting pitchers, including P.J. Walters for 1 start and Brad Thompson for 8. Here are the ’09 major league peripherals for 3 of the 4 contenders.
| K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | FIP | GB% | xFIP | tRA* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boggs | 7.14 | 5.12 | 0.47 | 4.10 | 52.7 | 4.78 | 4.61 |
| McClellan | 6.89 | 4.59 | 0.54 | 3.97 | 50.0 | 4.43 | 4.69 |
| Hawksworth | 4.50 | 3.38 | 0.45 | 3.95 | 53.8 | 4.48 | 4.17 |
Though they’re somewhat different pitchers, their numbers all look very similar. They all walk more than we’d prefer, though Boggs’ and McClellan’s K rates are higher than Hawksworth’s. They all had very low HR/9 b/c they’re all ground ball pitchers. But they were all probably lucky to have such a low HR rate since all three had HR/FB around 6% -- about 5% below league average. Boggs and Hawksworth throw a little harder than McClellan, w/ fastballs averaging 92.7 and 92.5 mph to McClellan’s 91.4. This year, Boggs’ best pitch was his slider, McClellan’s was his curveball, and Hawksworth’s was his fastball. It seems to me that, of the 3 – or 4 if Garcia is added to the mix – we’ll be able to find one guy to fill that 5th spot.
So that leaves Smoltz for the 4th spot…or does it? We could probably add Smoltz on a 1 year, $5 M or so contract to return, thus leaving us quite a bit of coin to resign Holliday, or add a higher priced 3B than David Freese/Allen Craig (yeah, right!). The thing is, though, while the free agent class isn’t very strong – John Lackey is really the only really solid free agent pitcher available – there are a lot of fairly strong comeback candidates that could provide a huge boost to the rotation should they pay off. I’m not sure we should just settle for Smoltz and be done with it.
Dave Cameron over at fangraphs addressed this some the other day -- that there will be a lot of potentially very good starters on the market who are looking for a short-term deal. In other words, a lot of potential for adding a low risk, high reward starter. Some of the starters on the market this offseason will include Rich Harden, Randy Johnson, Ben Sheets, Justin Duchscherer, Kelvim Escobar, Brett Myers, and Erik Bedard in addition to Smoltz.
Briefly, now…their resumes:
Rich Harden – will be just 28 in November. He hasn’t pitched more than 148 innings in a season since 2004 and this year he gave up a ridiculous 23 HR in just 141 innings. He is a fly ball pitcher who had extremely bad luck this year w/ fly balls leaving the park (HR/FB = 15.1%). When he’s on, there are few better. He has a career K/9 of 9.35 and BB/9 of 3.93. Over the last 2 years, his fastball mph is down from averaging 93-94 mph to 92.1 and 92.0. In ’08, he was worth 4.4 WAR for the A’s and Cubs in just 148 innings.
Ben Sheets – 31 years old. Missed all of 2009 with an elbow injury. From 2005-2008, he threw 156.2, 106, 141.1, and 198.1 innings (averaging just less than 151 innings per season). He hasn’t had an ERA above 4.00 since 2003. Career K/9 – 7.60. Career BB/9 – 1.97. He’s not really a ground ball pitcher either but his career HR/9 = 1.01. He’s basically a fastball/curveball pitcher whose FB has been pretty consistent throughout his career and averaged 92.7 mph.
Erik Bedard – turns 31 in March. The only lefty in the group. Since being traded to the Mariners prior to the ’08 season, he’s thrown only 164 innings. He was having a great season before tearing his labrum this season. He likely won’t be ready to go on opening day b/c of a 6 month recovery period. Pitching his entire career in the AL, he hasn’t had an ERA above 4.00 since 2004. Career K/9 – 8.77. Career BB/9 – 3.56. Career HR/9 – just 0.82 despite averaging a 36.7% FB rate for his career. He’s basically a two pitch pitcher as well w/ a terrific curveball.
Kelvim Escobar – turns 34 in April. I’ve always liked this guy. He’s had shoulder problems over the last couple of years as he’s thrown just 5 innings since 2007. From ’03 – ’07, however, he threw over 180 innings every season but one. Career K/9 – 7.78. Career BB/9 – 3.65. He’s much more of a ground ball pitcher than any of the previous guys. He’s always been basically a fastball, curveball, change pitcher whose fastball has averaged nearly 94 mph. Who knows what he’ll look like when the scouts see him throw, but he’s always had terrific stuff.
Justin Duchscherer – turns 32 in November. Duchscherer’s been a reliever throughout his career until the A’s moved him to the rotation in 2008. He’s been battling elbow problems and depression since throwing 141.2 innings for the A’s last season. Career K/9 – 6.94. Career BB/9 – 2.30. Duchscherer doesn’t throw hard. His fastball’s only averaged 86.0 mph for his career but it, his cutter, and his curveball have all been effective pitches for him in his career. I doubt the team will want to go there after their experience w/ Khalil Greene this season but…
Brett Myers – turned 29 in August. Myers has bounced back and forth from the Phillies’ rotation to the bullpen for the last 3 years and has suffered from shoulder and hip problems this season. Career K/9 – 7.50. Career BB/9 – pi. His career GB% is over 47% and, while he had homer problems this season (18 in just 70.2 innings), he was horribly unlucky, as evidenced by his ridiculous 23.4% HR/FB rate. He’s a fastball, slider, curveball pitcher whose fastball averaged just 89.3 mph this season – down from 90.8 for his career.
Randy Johnson – just turned 46. Yes, 46. He’s Julio Franco meets Cy Young. I advocated signing Johnson prior to this season. He’s definitely scary b/c of his age and the fact that he threw just 96 innings this season. And while his K rate and BB rate were very good, his HR rate was very high – and that’s for someone who pitched half his games in whatever the Giants’ park is called these days. (3 Com? AT&T? …whatever). However, like Myers, he was ridiculously unlucky in that his HR/FB rate was 19.2%. His fastball’s been losing velocity for the last couple of years but his slider’s as potent as ever.
Of course, before we look to sign any of these guys we’d have to double and triple-check their medical reports and watch them pitch, check out their mph, whatever. We’d absolutely have to do our due diligence. And we’d have to understand that we’re unlikely to get 200 innings from any of these guys but if we could get 140-150 from them and then another 50 or so from whoever finishes 2nd in the 5th starter derby, we’d potentially have a very potent 1, 2, and 3 when the playoffs arrive next fall.
I’d say my top 3 at this point would be 1. Sheets; 2. Bedard; 3. Smoltz but I’d like to see what Myers, Escobar, and Harden look like as well.
See you soon.
253 comments
|
2 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
harden isn't in the poll
though, i guess if they’re all healthy and strong (which is the question after all) i’d take sheets
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
And Smoltz is in there twice
at first I thought it was a clever ploy to split the Smoltz vote, thereby allowing Sheets to win… although at this point 39% greatly outweighs 19%, so it was probably just a clerical error.
/conspiracy theories
oh and
thanks for the bloggin’s, dude. we all have to emerge from our mothers’ basements someday. i fear the sunlight, but you are a strong man. bring lots of sun block
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
+10000
We all appreciate yer efforts, Chuck – this is the best baseball blog on the ‘net, and the fact that it’s a CARDS blog makes it sweeter than cream and honey…
;=8)
We’ll miss yer posts, but glad yer still around for cowments.
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
That's a big loss for the site
The team at VEB has been as good in the last 3-4 months as I’ve ever seen. Seems to be a common lament of bloggers that these sites take over their lives. Having done research for only one detailed fanpost, I can see why. I think VEB should have a roster of seven posters to help lighten the load so people don’t burn out, but finding that much talent I’m sure is hard to come by.
Thanks for a very entertaining year and I’ll take Harden.
Just win
be still, my heart
firstly, I’d like to repeat what I have said a few times before: that chuck is by far the best “writer” of any of the main poster/ thread starters (whatever you call it), so it is a big blow to me to see him semi-retire, altho I understand completely.
My segue mad-on still burns me tho (relative to the “research” as burn-out agent phenomenon); namely, I’ve never understood why there is this maniacal insistence, enforced, at times not so subtly by self-appointed super-peers, on an opening thread (must) be research oriented in the first place. Thus peppered by largely incomprehensible alphabet soup, mysterious acronym, head-swirling gooble-goop.
When a Chuck b, or virtually anyone else, can’t start a thread without seeming to look over the shoulder for sanction from ‘prove your point(s) with sabermetrics’ goon squad, I think that is an unfortunate squeeze (limitation) of the enjoyment a blog like this can bring
The joy of baseball is what you see (or hear) and how it makes you feel. And the ‘savor’ is being able to share this with others.
Please understand I have no direct animus toward numbers-crunching research briefs; I simply choose, for myself, to largely ignore or by-pass them. What I am asking for (advocating) is accord. If a poster seems to be shooting from the hip, or whatever negative metaphor you prefer, just move on. Taking the time to rag him (or her) for it seems to me to be venal and arrogant.
The life decision chuck made may have happened anyway, but I gnash my teeth over the extent that the factor, sketched above, had anything to do with the decision.
We need MORE main threads, not fewer; and they need not all be elaborate, just honest and well-written.
That's the difference between a main post and a fan post, though.
I’m not arguing that it is not uncouth to chastise those that spend a great deal of time to provide us with informative entertainment, but I would be more inclined to believe that our manager and editors hold themselves to a much higher standard than any of us hold them, anyway. Perhaps it is patently unfair that we forget sometimes the sacrifices that they make and do not often enough pay homage to such. Then again, the membership here continues to grow year after year, which I would believe is a great testament to their efforts.
I also wouldn’t say that all of the main posts are heavily laden with statistical research, but they all do a fine job of at least trying to prove their points in some manner. That is a requirement for an editorial. I believe our moderators do a much better job than many main-stream media op-ed writers, and that’s why I continue to return here. They don’t owe me anything here, but I greatly appreciate that they all hold themselves to such high standards. I also appreciate that Chuck and Larry both felt more inclined to walk away from the position than to turn in work that was below what they would be proud of.
Thanks again to all of the moderators here for both educating and entertaining those of us who frequent the site. The pay is unfortunately not commensurate with the work.
I've always thought Harden
would make a good closer. Whenever I watch him pitch it seems like he has good stuff but is only ever to make it 5ish innings. I think he’d work out pretty well only having to go for an inning every couple nites. Just an idea… probably a bad one.
"The Cards lead this game tied 1-1." -Mike Shannon
That actually sounds pretty good to me
but does he want to go along with it :P
"Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work"
-Mark Twain
I'm not saying it's likely to happen
However if an offer of enough money was made I’m sure he could be motivated in that direction…
"The Cards lead this game tied 1-1." -Mike Shannon
I’m sorry to hear about your departure. I’ve really enjoyed your stuff and I think you’re one of the steadiest hands running this site. Have fun getting a tan. As for the poll:
1. Sheets
2. Harden
3. Myers
One major caveat: Sheets has been rehabbing under the Texas Rangers medical staff, so he’s probably not going to be available.
Each of these three has a good shot at 150 innings, and none of them have glenoid labrum issues. Rich Harden might be the most expensive, but he’s progressively ditched stressful pitches and is now a fastball/changeup pitcher who’s spent fewer and fewer days on the DL in each of the last three seasons. Myers was once a wifebeating douchebag, but assuming his counseling was successful he’d be a good pickup. As we saw this season, hip labrum problems (like A-rod and Utley’s) are not as serious as shoulder issues, so he’s a good bet to return to form.
I just wrote an article about Erik Bedard, so shameless plug.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
good article, spants
and i see bedard didn’t make your top three. another thing: doesn’t bedard have some personality-issue rep?
chuck, the rotation will miss you.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
yeah, spants
nice article
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
my bad, hazel.
i did that once before.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
that salt must be some really good stuff
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
when snorted
isn’t spants also medically-inclined? i think that was my mix-up before.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
well hell
have you ever visited a doctor?
i found this site months ago, and one of the first things i read was a post on plantar fascists, something about the correlation between bad feet and strikeouts. i missed a couple months, and somehow it got into my mind that it was spants who authored that piece. i guess i could search it but instead i will now (probably falsely) assume that it was hazel who wrote it. I’ll just add, in my defense, that the mind is a terrible thing to waste, and it’s unfortunate that more people aren’t ignorant of that fact, because the mind is a terrible thing.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
plantar
the worst kind of fascist
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 19, 2009 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
that can't be proven
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Bedard gets some crap for not being a very nice guy,
but in general I think personality issues are overblown. This is my favorite article about Bedard’s personality.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Damn, I get tired of this crap.
I’ve lived my whole life in the midwest, and I am SO FREAKING TIRED of this crap from the coasts.
He’s Japanese. You’re from the midwest. I can understand how you might not get along
You know what alex, this claim is biggotry, too. So, stick to something you know about, like rain, pretentious coffee, and salmon fishing; and keep your damn comments about where I live to yourself.
Yeah, there's no evidence that baseball players or midwesterners are ever racist,
and that comment was much more than a throw away joke from a random blog post.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
That site also riffs on Bedard's attitude and its relationship to the French-Canadian stereotype.
But of course if those damn West-coasters would stick to the three things (I’ll repeat: coffee, rain, fish) they know about, we’d all be better off, since they’re the real bigots.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
You apparently missed the irony.
I used that to intentionally emphasize that the attitude and usage is crap. The difference is, I intentionally used stereotypes that aren’t nearly as personally offensive as the one that moron used. Admittedly, alex is catching the brunt of my anger from many, many people that constantly generalize that anyone that grew up in the midwest is more than likely intolerant to any culture other than our own.
It was a bit heavy-handed if you were aiming to show the enlightenment of midwesterners.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
At any rate
It was some dumb article i found while researching for D-line. I brought out the article for laughs, so here’s another dumb one and let’s all have some laughs and some pie.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
It was intended to be heavy-handed.
I’m angry about the fact that this is a very wide-spread generalization. I have the same attitude towards urbanites that make the same generalizations about rural citizens. I’m tired of it, and I take it extremely personally as I grew outside of an urban area in the midwest.
Again, I’m not attacking you, personally. It’s the person who wrote the stupid post, and I guarantee you that the same flippant type of remark about african-americans, jewish-americans, women, etc. would have been met with a national outrage. That kind of direct prejudice is not funny to me, regardless of the subject.
by etp_stl on Oct 18, 2009 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I know...
I can’t believe he left the south out of it to…
/bad joke
"The Cards lead this game tied 1-1." -Mike Shannon
That's the definition of stereotyping.
It’s bullcrap any way you want to slice it. I don’t find it funny, and the fact is it’s a generalization that gets made regularly. When you begin applying that generalization and treating people accordingly without fact, that’s bigotry.
He’s not even saying because the guy is a baseball player, so your reasoning there is junk, too. He is specifically trashing midwesterners, and he can shove it sideways.
I wasn’t criticizing you, nor was I implying that you agree with the premise of his statement.
U Should....
…hear the anti-cow remarks I hear all the time. Cows are just nicer than people…
:=8/
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
Hear! Hear!
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 18, 2009 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Well that sucks
I had to say it, and as much as I wish you all the best, it is gonna be strange coming here not seeing chucks’ work every week. I think you started doing regular work here shortly after I actually started coming here every single day.
Anyway, before I get melancholy, is there any doubt that I would say sign ing Ben Sheets would be my choice?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
You will be missed Chuck
Is someone going to pick up your slack? Most notably is Danup going to write your daily posts or will their now be days without posts?
Thanks for Everything
robot?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Elias Rankings of possible 2010 starters
Harden – Type B (one away from A)
R Johnson – Type B
Sheets – None
Duchscherer – Type B
Escobar – None
Myers – None
Bedard – Type B
Smoltz – None
Pineiro – Type B
I think on one year deals the players current Elias Ranking is important. So you can hedge some of the upside. If a player returns to form not only do you get a healthy player but the potential of draft picks. This is most true of Harden or Bedard.
If Bedard or Harden return to form and turn into 4 or 5 WAR pitchers,
wouldn’t you be better off just having a contract with them?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Well assuming
They return to form and they are signed onto 2010 one year deals. They will most likely test the Free Agent waters at that point.
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
What?
No Pedro? Mr. Martinez has my vote. The stuff isn’t what it used to be, but the location, moxie, and smarts are all still there. Sign Pedro, put your back up for him in position to take over if/when he has to be shut down.
Harden has to be a no-go. He’s a two pitch pitcher who is the best in the game at not letting hitters square up on him-when he’s on. When he’s not, he completely labors to make it to the 5th inning. He’s the poster boy for anti-Dave Duncan style pitching. Extreme fly ball, extreme strike out, fairly high walk rate, and no real breaking pitch. Plus, he’s never gone deep into games. Oh, and he has a slight tear in his rotator cuff that has never been repaired and elbow issues that no one can pinpoint the cause of. I love him, but he’s not going to pitching here.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Oh, and could you get Mike Adams for the bullpen, please?
If we are going to take an old, former HOF caliber pitcher
who has lost some of his stuff and suffers from past arm injuries….I’ll take Smoltz.
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 18, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks Chuck
thanks for your time you put in at viva, enjoy the family big guy.
http://stlcardinals.scout.com/
Thanks chuck
Can’t imagine how much time it takes to write these articles, and sometimes we take it for granted, but just understand that we appreciate everything you have done :)
This is like going into a store 1 day before it’s closing for good. There’s maybe 1 thing that’s actually worth the money, and a bunch of bargain bin crap, or old crap that nobody wants. Actually, I was thinking about Randy Wolf. I know he is a type A, but he is a lefty, and seems to be doing very well this year. It’s been 2 years since he has really lost any time. Maybe I will anger the draft scientists here, but it’s still worth thinking about. There’s also Jason Marquis :D
"Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work"
-Mark Twain
I like Wolf
If you don’t have to give up your first rounder
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
all in for sheets
just say no to shoulder problems please(especially a labrum)
We’ll miss you chuckb…don’t be too much of a stranger
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
I Don't Think...
…we’re gettin’ Sheets, I think he’s a lock for Texas. Smoltz, Bedard, and Harden, in that order, is the MooCow preference. Smoltzy showed us some gravy while he was here, and should be a cheap #5 with plenty of “Major League Experience”, ie leadership. I’ve always liked Bedard when he was an O, and I would lov to see the Cards get strong lefty, but he may be too expensive. Harden is tantalizing, but has injury issues. He’d be good at the right price, but you can expect him to make at least 1 trip to the DL per season. The udder guys are either too old (Johnson), too unproven (Duchscherer), too mediocre (Escobar), or too nuts (Myers, although if pressed he’d be my 4th choice).
I personally would re-sign Smoltz, save moolah for either a closer (Valverde) + Holiday or DeRose + Holiday, and let the best baby bird slug out a spot (hopefully Garcia!).
:=8)
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
you want to sign Holliday twice?
He would definitely be more inclined to sign then!
Just messing with ya :)
Sheets is gone, i agree, every since last offseason when he worked out with them on his injury. I think that Valverde will be too rich for our blood. If he gets what Brian Fuentes got last season, i will be sick.
"Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work"
-Mark Twain
also
sounds like Escobar would be a good Duncan project
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 18, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
anyone see the article in the tribune about pujols today?
part of me thinks this is wishful thinking…but the guy makes some good points
I don’t think this is going to be as easy as we all want it to be
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
my own wishful thinking
is that these elbow exams pertain to insurance elements of a new contract.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
numbers wrong and/or delusional
fairly typical trib
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
i'm leaning toward the under
on albert signing an extension.
i really think it would be in the best interest of the cards to re-sign holliday and get as much as we can for albert. which is a lot
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
As much as I don't want to say this,
I almost think you’re correct on that. A horrifyingly prophetic vision if you will. With the amount of cash that he could get…I don’t see how we keep him. He wants a ring for each finger, as much as I love the Cards, they just aren’t going to do that every year.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 18, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
i would miss albert
but think about the offers ricciardi was getting for 1.5 years of halladay. you’d be able to get well more for 2 years of albert. i wish he’d just give the cards the respect they deserve and say if he has any intention of signing an extension so mo doesn’t hold out and we get burned and only get the picks for him.
cards could realistically contend without him if we could get a smoak/andrus/feliz type package and shed albert $16MM contract. we’d probably be a better team to boot
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Oh I fully agree that we could get some major talent back
for two years of Albert. And you are very correct in that we could get some serious upgrades at more than one position for him and the same money he gets….just don’t wanna let him go. But the end-game is to win a WS…how many WS titles did Bonds win?
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 18, 2009 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions
If you could get Hanley Ramirez for him
and Evan Longoria for him. Would you trade Pujols?
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Albert for both?
Yep. I don’t wanna see him go…didn’t say I wouldn’t do it. Of course, he may bash our brains in everytime we face him from then on.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 18, 2009 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Do we move Boog to second then? Or Ramirez?
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 18, 2009 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions
i'd move hanley to 3b
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
and longoria?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
He can DH.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 18, 2009 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions
shit!
okay, hanley can play 1b
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 18, 2009 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought that was where Craig was gonna go
once we’d freed him.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 18, 2009 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions
who cares
we have fucking hanley ramirez and evan longoria. trade allen craig for carl crawford and adam jones
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 18, 2009 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I really like how you think PJ.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 19, 2009 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions
is this trade
with tampa or florida?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Both
There is enough of Albert to go around! :)
Albert just always plays if Florida
Whichever team plays at home, Albert will play for.
They split overlapped games.
Offseason Rumors : Me :: Unicorn Blood : Voldemort
by Cardinals645 on Oct 18, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions
tampa and florida get a timeshare
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
As long as we get a WS title out of the deal, they can do whatever they want.
/May need to call on the Wisdom of Solomon here.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 18, 2009 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I wondered how long it would take somebody to jump on that.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 18, 2009 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions
It's really been an eye opener to see the national media
trying to “will” Pujols out of St. Louis. Ken Rosenthal seems to be making it his mission as are other writers. Do these guys want Pujols to play on the East Coast or in a “big market” that bad? I know others will disagree with me…but this obsession of everything East Coast in baseball is really hurting the sport as a whole for a good portion of the U.S. It’s like these guys want Albert to leave St. Louis to make a point. It’s really getting disgusting to me. Baseball is a passion of mine…but the way the “business of baseball” has become it’s really starting to put me off as a fan.
Boy a frosty cold Budweiser would be great about now"…long pause…then an "aahhh". --Mike Shannon
by KYCards on Oct 18, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Chuck, your writing was top notch (wait, you ain't dead yet!)
but you obviously will be missed. I know from time to time it would get frustrating that your great writing would go unnoticed in the daily threads as we’d ramble on and on about something completely unrelated. But, don’t think for a second we didn’t all read it and had a better understanding of the game because of it. Big shoes to be filled.
Maybe we can get that HoustonCardinals guy to come back and write.
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 18, 2009 2:11 PM EDT reply actions
SeattleCardinal?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
absolutely not
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
One comment regarding the troika of Boggs, Hawksworth & McClellan
From a completely non-statistical perspective, I would think Boggs makes the most sense in the pen. His fastball is going to play up there if he can air it out for a few batters at a time. He can ditch the lesser of his breaking pitches (I prefer his curveball but his slider can be very good when it’s on as well). McClellan and Hawksworth both suffer from the same problem: a sub-par fastball. Hawksworth has finally picked up a little velocity several years removed from surgery but I don’t see him ever becoming a top notch reliever.
McClellan and Hawksworth are better utilized in the last spot of the rotation where they can mix in their secondary pitches more and don’t get called into situations where there is no margin for error. Part of this stems from the fact that, outside of Jaime Garcia, I just don’t see any pitcher in the Cardinals’ system that can survive at the major league level right now. I’ve long been a doubter of Walters’ stuff and I’ll continue to hold to that position. Lance Lynn is still a year removed from being ready in my opinion. Clayton Mortensen’s departure leaves the team with a little less wiggle room than they had.
Also, if Garcia isn’t in the rotation next year, then the Cardinals are doing something wrong.
(Enjoy the time with the family chuck. Blogging should always take a backseat to that.)
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
I agree on Boggs
I’ve thought that for a while, if he can put an extra mph or two on his fastball out of the pen, even better. imo Hawksworth makes more sense as a starter, I think McClellan would be a 5-6 inning per start guy at best.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 18, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Hawksworth minor league career says he is not a starter though
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah
and he’s been good out of the pen so… dunno
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 18, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
he was also
recovering from an injury for much of that
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Agree on Boggs
I think he can do pretty well in the pen when he can air out that fastball. I’m not sure his secondary stuff is good enough for a starter and he runs up a pitch count pretty regularly it seems.
by Merry CRasmus on Oct 18, 2009 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks Chuck!
I really enjoy your posts. I appreciate the careful thought and research you put into them. I’ll miss seeing you as a regular.
Thanks Chuck!
Family’s nice and your kids only grow up once, wouldn’t want to miss that. When we’re teenagers, us children are nightmares.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
I knew this was coming
I could see the writing on the wall. I haven’t read the post yet, just read the first line. I’m disappointed that you wont be back, and I hope that its not because of a certain disagreement (again, i didn’t read past the first line, time constraints). Best of luck to you, your writing will be missed. I did enjoy your thorough analysis.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
thank you for everything chuck
you did some incredible work here, and your thoughts & insight will be greatly missed. i don’t know what this “family” is your are going to be spending all your free time with now, but they are a lucky bunch. good luck, and God bless.
oh i almost forgot
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
i could go for a day game about now
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
i can't make myself watch baseball
the hurt is still too new
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
aw, come on
baseball will soon be over for a long time. and there are some exciting games happening now. be a baseball fan
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
can't do it
tried to watch the game last night, and just couldn’t
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
Thank you sir
For all the pleasure you have given so many people.
I will think of you climbing the basement stairs into the light like the prisoners in Fidelio.
¡Viva chuckb!
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Hudson is reportedly going to give a home town discount and get resigned.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I don't understand
Didn’t he have a $12M option?
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Quick somebody clobber him with a pie!
Or multiples.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 18, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
pie clobbering is for yankees
pie serving is for the Operation.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Point taken.
But I was really meaning clobbering in a sense of give an overwhelming reason to come to the good side.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 18, 2009 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions
let them come to the pie
that’s what your open windowsill is for: wafting.
waft aggressively.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I just had an O Brother flashback.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 18, 2009 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions
no sirens in the man stew
one hopes
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
If you bake it, they will come.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan Fucking Ludwick
Thank you for all your hard work chuckb!
It has been a pleasure to take in your handiwork. You do it well and enjoy the rest of your life.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 18, 2009 3:42 PM EDT reply actions
Good job Chuck
Chuck:
Thanks for the hard work and good reading. Good luck to you!
===============
As far as the rotation goes, unless he is really cheap, I’d pass on Smoltz and instead try to get Sheets as a #3 type starter. The back end (i.e #5) of the rotation should be filled by a low cost guy, i.e a scrap-heaper or rookie/ cost controlled player with upside. The number 5 starter shouldn’t see post-season action except as an early/ long reliever, and accordingly the team shouldn’t waste money on the spot.
The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!
So I have been doing the 2010 Payroll
We have about $20M to $25M to get 3B, LF, 4th OFer, Backup C, SP #4 and SP #5
Maybe Freese and Jaime Garcia fill two of those spots. But $17M for Holliday and $5M for Smoltz, $1M for LaRue. Leaves $2M for 4th OFer and Backup C
$90 to $95 million
Starting Payroll in 2009 was $88,528,409 but in 2008 it was $99,624,449
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I could be wrong here
But Holliday added like 10M to the payroll.
In any case I would think Mozeliak would have told DeZilla “if we’re trading Wallace I’m gonna need some more money to work with here”. If not that trade is even worse. I could very easily see this being a 105-110M “go for it” type of constraint given TLR being one year closer to being a full time Bingo player and the seeming desire to show Pujols that they can make it rain.
At the very least adding 15M to the budget would allow us to build a rock solid possible-WS-favorite type of team IMO and I’d think the gains in attendance and overall interest in the team would blow up if fans thought from the very beginning that the team was going to be awesome. Might not quite produce 15M more in revenue but I think the effect would be pretty significant over “meh, we might be good, might be bad”.
Not afraid to nitpick
By the beard of Zeus
What wouldn’t I give for an NHLNumbers style spreadsheet.
Not afraid to nitpick
You would invent time travel to go back in time and plagiarize my idea
Unfortunately there’s nothing as cool as Erik Johnson .850 on the Cardinals list.
Not afraid to nitpick
I contend that
Colby Rasmus LgMin is pretty freakin awesome.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Cots has one
but they have all the options as “declined”. link
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
I just heard on the ESPN radio season wrap up ...
that Holliday added something like $5.3M – $5.7M this year. The A’s picked up some of the remaining contract.
I agree with you that the organization can’t claim to be concerned about the attendance this coming year. They cried wolf on that last year, and the fans definitely came through the turnstiles. The additional revenue they received from that and the playoff appearance (true that more than one stinking game might have helped) has to be providing some additional revenue they didn’t think they’d have. In addition, the projections are for the coming year to see the economy improve, as well.
I too have a feeling that payroll will be spiked this offseason
Just from the tone of all the interviews I have read concerning DeWitt the last few months.
Oh and DeZilla is awesome. I hope it destroys the DeWallet nickname ( i fucking hate that nickname).
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
We’re looking at approximately $25M to cover: 3B, LF, C, OF, #4, #5
I’ll take:
Holliday – LF – $14M ($80 total over 5 years)
Garcia/Boggs/Hawskworth/McClellan – 1 to 2 of them as starters, 2 to 3 as relievers – $0 extra cost
Harden – undetermined role, preferably closer (to me) – $5 (1 year)
LaRue – $1M (1 year)
Freese/Craig – 3B – $0 extra cost
Cameron – 4th OF – $5M (1 year)
Of course, these numbers probably can’t get it done. Oh well.
If Holliday signs for 5/80M or less I'll...I don't know what I would do but I won't be doing it
He’s been a 5.5-8 win player the past three years.
Not afraid to nitpick
Read my comments above
It is silly to spend much money on a #5 starter when a scrap-heaper or AAA or AAAA type would be acepatable. Invest that money in a SP instead.
The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!
Thanks, Chuck.
I have learned a great deal from your posts over the last two years. Thanks for everything, as I’m sure the time constraints are above and beyond what most of us would care to try to keep up with. Given the heavy statistical nature of your approach to baseball analysis, it probably takes more time than most. The choice to spend the time with your family is definitely the right one. Good luck, and hope to see the comments tossed in occasionally.
I would like to see Hawksworth given a serious opportunity for the 5 spot in the rotation. I have been impressed with his composure during the second half of the season. I think Boggs could actually be a dangerous pitcher if he can take the final step to refine his command to the point that he can become stingier with his pitch counts.
I think Sheets is the best option on the board, if healthy. I would have to say:
1. Sheets
2. Myers
3. Bedard
I don’t want anything to do with a pitcher with depression nor shoulder problems if I can avoid it. I just don’t think those are worth the trouble.
The obsession with Sheets boggles my mind even more these days
HE MISSED AN ENTIRE YEAR. Does anyone even know in the slightest whether he is physically capable of throwing a baseball at this point?
Not afraid to nitpick
yeah, no pitcher could miss a year or more and prove useful aftewards
i mean, if a player did that, he’d have to win the comeback player of the year!
defy, cards, defy. hey logic --- you suck.
by effin fisk on Oct 18, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
So we should count on a pitcher about whom we know nothing?
The sentiment is not “let’s see if he’s healthy” it’s “BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS”.
Has Ben Sheets picked up a baseball in the past 6 months?
Not afraid to nitpick
kickass.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
photo -is- cropped above the hands
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 19, 2009 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions
The assumption was ...
that he was healthy. If he’s not, then move to the next on the list. I trust in recovery from elbow issues over recovery from shoulder or hip issues for pitchers. If he is healthy, then you get a top of the rotation pitcher. You aren’t relying on him to be that for this team, so you can gamble some with who you bring in for a 4th or 5th spot. If you can get him for Brad Penny / John Smoltz ‘09 money, then why wouldn’t you try it?
If he's "healthy" and throwing 90+ MPH I sure haven't heard a word of it
And aside from that, I feel confident in saying the Red Sox would not go back in time and again sign John Smoltz / Brad Penny for the money that they gave them.
Wasting our breath on Brandon Webb getting his option declined and then us signing him to be BrandonWebb™ again would be more productive IMO.
Not afraid to nitpick
i disagree
I see Red Sox making the same exact moves this off season. Signing high upside pitchers with question marks
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I see them making the exact same moves in the future yes
Retrospectively they would not have paid ~12ish million for John Smoltz and Brad Penny for the 2009 season to get a combined 5.32 FIP in 170 innings. That’s another potential downside people forgot about with those deals.
The Cardinals on the other hand can’t really risk 5M being lit on fire like that.
In any case, the possibilities aren’t “he’s BenSheets® vs. Matt Clement 2.0”, there’s a good chunk of 5.32 FIPs in the distribution even if he is healthy.
Not afraid to nitpick
We payed Pineiro $8M with a lot less history of success.
The Cardinals can afford to try one of these at $5M. No, they couldn’t afford to try two of them the way the Red Sox did.
Also, because we have a good amount of replacement-level or thereabouts talent,
it’s quite worthwhile for us to take a shot at some upside. I’d prefer to either get one of the top tier, Sheets, Myers, or Harden, or to go for the very bottom of the barrel and try to get someone on a <$1 or 2M contract.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I would agree with the Brandon Webb comment, but ...
it is a lot longer shot to get a perenial Cy Young candidate to have his option declined by the team that knows him the best. If they decline the option, I would be extremely warry about his health at that point.
I admit to you that there were some reports that I read in spring (I believe somebody here had posted a link about, but I don’t remember who) that indicate that Sheets may have a chronic issue developing that will make it much more likely that he will not be the durable, dominant pitcher he has been in the past. If that is indeed the case, then on to the next option.
Remember, we are looking for a #3-4 starter here, not a top of the rotation guy.
sheets
has he ever been durable?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
etp
your last line makes me wonder, too, if sheets would even consider a team where his upside would put him #3. he doesn’t strike me as that guy but I could be misreading this entirely.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I'm thinking a 1-yr contract to prove himself.
I don’t think he would sign here to a long-term contract for just the reason you are talking about. I wouldn’t want the Cardinals to lock up a #4 pitcher to a long-term contract, anyway. I’m hoping he would use us for a year to prove himself, especially in a down economy that is most likely to have started rebounding by this time next year, in order to land that last big contract of his career.
Webb option to be declined
That is the report from azsnakepit.com and elsewhere. I checked Cot’s site and Webb is a Type B. This means whoever signs him will not even lose a draft pick. AZ will just receive a sandwich pick as compensation.
What an opportune time to pick up a Cy Young pitcher at minimal cost! His season-ending surgery was arthro – not major. Even if he’s not back full next year, he still has a lot of prime pitching years in front of him. Could be a signing reminiscent of a name we are familiar with: Chris Carpenter.
by Matt Bug on Oct 19, 2009 4:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
sounds fishy
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Not so much...
When you consider AZ’s SP depth and their vow that they “wanted to see him throw by November” or they would decline his option. They only have until 5 days after the WS to exercise the option. So right now the indicators point toward Webb being up for grabs. Cy Young guy? One of the best sinkerballers around (perfect match for Duncan)? Still young enough? I’d take a flyer on that.
by Matt Bug on Oct 19, 2009 5:37 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
yeah, me too
just doesn’t make sense.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
even if he's not back at all next year
i wouldn’t mind signing him $1MM base plus incentives and paying him the base to sit on his ass so that we have rights to him in 2011. get it done, mo!
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
absolutely
just easier said than done. now, back to 2010…
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
no, you didn't read my post
i said, “get it done, mo,” so whether it can be done or not, it needs to be done
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Not a bad plan given ...
Carp’s contract will be ending about then. It would be nice to have a terrific backup plan to Carp going down again or leaving after this contract.
These pitchers are all damaged goods-
Sheets is just the one whose damage we know most about.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I'll repeat: They're all damaged goods.
Compared to one another, Sheets certainly seems like one of the better bets. I don’t see anything newer than March, but the general rule is that pitchers usually recover well from elbow injuries, given enough time and rehab, while shoulders are a relative crapshoot. Escobar, Bedard, Smoltz, RJ, and Duchscherer all have some manner of shoulder or upper-arm issues, so immediately he’s vaulted over all of them in my book as long as the price is the same. His remaining competition consists of two pitchers who he has been better and more durable than in the past. Both Myers and Harden are mostly recovered and could easily be more durable and better in the future, and we’ve got pretty good information on them, so there’s an argument for either of them, but my first impression was that Sheets is among the best bets. That’s my logic in a nutshell.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Chuck addressed that
Late in the column, with caveat that Cards would obviously do their medical due diligence, etc.
We’re voting on these guys, assuming they check out as a capable of throwing a baseball. Obviously still varying risk based on history (Harden and Sheets are like red flags), but we were asked to assume they check out as part of contract decision.
Thank you for all the years posting, chuck
I’ve always appreciated your writing, even back in the old houstoncardinal days.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
We'll miss ya chuck
already looking forward to some debate provoking fanposts!
"Sorry about him, he's dealing with being an inker. " - Chasing Amy
Sad to see you go
I still have such fond feelings toward the earlier days of this site, and your writing has always been some of the best, well-researched, most thoughtful stuff around. It seems like a lot of times you think through the subject matter so well and cover it so completely that there isn’t much left to say in the comments. So while the # of comments don’t always match rivalry game threads, the content is always some of the best.
Will miss your writing. Don’t be a stranger. Enjoy time with the family and friends, and thanks for all the hard work through the last several years.
defy, cards, defy. hey logic --- you suck.
Thanks for the all the research and excellent posts
Your posts always made me think a little deeper into the numbers and the impact/approach to the game. Enjoy the time with the family. I look forward to the occasional fanpost.
Add one more "thank you" to the pile -
Thanks for everything you have contributed to this great site. Enjoy the fam.
well here's this
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/10/holliday-prefers-new-york.html
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
and while we're on the subject
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
I love reading some of the comments over there
this type is always amongst my favorites:
I really hope the Yankees don’t go after him. He’s only getting older and we need to concentrate on bring up prospects to play the outfield
why do people ever say that? do players ever get younger?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
yeah
brad thompson was 35 with a full beard when he was drafted
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Puppykicker...
….won’t have a full beard when he’s 60, unless its glued on…
;=8)
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
wat
Cardinals offered Holliday 5 years, 90 about 3 weeks ago. He rejected the offer.
wat
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Where is that
I can’t find that in the article
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
It's in the comments.
I was momentarily boggled as well.
I never would slip you Mickey! It is merely rhinoceros horn. This makes the champagna bubble.
by The Continental on Oct 18, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
comments
just wondering if anyone else had heard anything about it
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
He turned down 4 years 82M from the Rockies
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/11/sports/baseball/11oakland.html
Not afraid to nitpick
That is wrong
Every other report said 4 years/$72M. I don’t see him turning down $20M a year
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Holliday
I truly think he wants to return to COL. A lot of personal attachment/friends there. Question is: Do they want him? Maybe not. Their OF is deep. They won’t overpay. That’s certain.
It’s clear from his in-season comments, (i.e., keeping mum and completely unbiased) he’s going to test the market. If the Cards sign him they will have to beat the competition. Let’s hope the Yanks don’t become involved and lure him to the dark side.
by Matt Bug on Oct 19, 2009 2:34 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
And step 1 for all big name free agents...
is to get the NY teams involved, or pretend that their involved. That’s straight out of the playbook.
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 18, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
The Cubs
have left locked down for the foreseeable future so that would just be foolish to bring them in… I will never tire of making jokes at Soriano’s expense…
"The Cards lead this game tied 1-1." -Mike Shannon
yeah, that wont get old for years
they still cant realistically trade him for what? 3 years?
I crawled the earth, but now I'm higher, 2010 watch it go to fire!
by First mammal to wear pants on Oct 18, 2009 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Probably never
but he will eventually stop the suckitude.
Had to earn that contract somehow right? Not like the Cubs are idiots…right? Wait…
"Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work"
-Mark Twain
So...if he struggled in the AL West...
why would he go to the AL East? He probably needs to stay in the NL
I crawled the earth, but now I'm higher, 2010 watch it go to fire!
by First mammal to wear pants on Oct 18, 2009 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess if he wants to go to NY
there’s always the Mets.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 18, 2009 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions
i havent read the whole post yet
but i just wanted to say thanks, chuck! you have provided myself and the rest of VEB with countless good reads over your blogging tenure and you will be greatly missed with your statistical minded posts, which i love!!! i wish you nothing but the best and will be looking for you sons name in the draft in 10-12 years.
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
Thanks for all the work chuckb
I learn something new at VEB every day.
Another thank-you here.
And remember: nobody ever reached retirement age and looked back wishing that he’d spent less time with his kids and more at work.
chuck - really a great post.
Lots of great info here. I had a HFS moment seeing the Hawk’s k/9 rate. I knew he was a gb pitcher, but . . . Wow!
If we don’t sign holliday, do we have to pick just one?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 18, 2009 7:16 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I'm thinking anyone who can step into the closer spot during the regualr season has a little bit more of upside for us.
that would be
Duchscherer(all star reliever)
Escobar
Smoltz
Myers
Harden/bedard
Who would fit the bill to step into that role if needed.
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
I don't disagree with that thought process.
I’m just scared of the recovery of the specific types of ailments/injuries that the top two are recovering from.
The relief role would make them less likely to have injuries or so
Smoltz is perfect because we know he can shut down lefties
"Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work"
-Mark Twain
I would much rather have Escobar though
he throws hard and can be a brilliant relief pitcher. Biggest question about some of these guys are how bad do their old team want to retain them. The hardest signing would be Bedard after what Seattle gave up, so if they don’t resign him it would be similar to how we feel about holliday and you know that would suck.
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
We will get 2 draft picks back for Holliday
He is a sunk cost. Signing him is a separate action and trading for him shouldn’t effect that.
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions
If
Mlbtrade rumors is correct it would suck to not get a pick in the #10-15 pick.thanks to the mets getting #7 and the yankees having th best record.
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
Rasmus was drafted 28th
And if you’re willing to pay money you can get top end talent anywhere in the draft.
Not afraid to nitpick
you can't get a pick in the 10 to 15 range`
First 15 picks are protected. You would get a second rounder in that case.
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions
well i misinformed by some MLB writer then
if only i could remember who though .
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
That is true.
15 worst teams retain their 1st Round selections. The team losing a Type A would receive a sandwich pick (between Rounds 1 and 2) and then select in the signing team’s Round 2 slot.
Only the 15 best teams lose their 1st Round selection.
by Matt Bug on Oct 19, 2009 2:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Nope.
This past season is going to price him out of range, given that it seems very unlikely that Pineiro will somehow be able to duplicate his career year. It was noted several times that the periphals that indicated his success have not been duplicated since the turn of the last century, and his remaining periphals indicate why he has been a replacement level pitcher his entire career. Let him cash in on somebody else’s payroll.
yup
plus his august and september are not in any way promising. jo-el of april-july is but a distant memory
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
chuckb is like koufax
glad you have made a decision to go out in your prime, at the top of your game, as opposed to having some difficult-to-watch edmonds-like decline in performance. thanks for adding clarity to the world of statistics for me; i definitely learned a lot from your posts, and have been seeing things more comprehensively because of them.
"When all's been said and done, I can say that all has been said and done."
-Steve "Lips" Kudlow, of Anvil
You know the guy I want to trade for?
Ian Kennedy, I have always been pretty high on him. His stuff looks pretty good looking from the pitch/fx of the AFL league. He is pretty low on the todem pole in Yankee land. I wanted to trade Rick Ankiel for him last off season. The Cardinal originally drafted him so someone else must like him too.
that is a trade that should have been made
or at least attempted we could have thrown in a RH reliever since we like to give those away…
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
I like that idea...a lot.
Huge upside and should be dirt cheap right now. Could be a real steal.
by Matt Bug on Oct 19, 2009 2:21 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
so I take it the Dodgers are in trouble....
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
What makes you think that?
Oh, you mean the 6-0 score in the third inning, in favor of the Phillies? :0
sometimes stating the obvious is a good conversation starter
but then again, they do play nine innings. nine whole innings.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I was jesting with you.
But you are right. There is a reason why they play the whole nine innings. You never know what might happen. That is one of the things that I love about baseball.
they said Ruiz = Yadi
among catchers
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
what in GOB's name is wrong with Utley?
I never remember him being this bad. he’s got aim like Boog off his groove.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
seriously?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 18, 2009 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions
at least
someone on nat’l tv knows yadi’s name
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Maybe they meant offensively...?
Offseason Rumors : Me :: Unicorn Blood : Voldemort
by Cardinals645 on Oct 18, 2009 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions
read that on fangraphs too
at least the implication, on their rundown of the powerful phils (after game 1 LCS, I believe)
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I am... strangely enjoying the *detailed* injury report of Phillies fans.
the Flyin Hawaiian Bat
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
or kuroda
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 18, 2009 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions
who am i kidding?
he would have thrown a no hitter
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 18, 2009 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions
hell
billingsley hasn’t given up any of the runs has he? i’ve only been intermittently watching. i know at least five of them belong to someone else
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 18, 2009 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions
nvm
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 18, 2009 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Thank you for all the tremendous efforts chuckb
Your great analysis always made me think. I’ll definitely miss your writing. Enjoy the time with family and good luck…!
Cardinals fan from Korea
Lee is Carpenterian tonight.
and in general.
I miss our badass already.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
look, he just said Eff This Shit.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 18, 2009 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Shaaaaaaaane. Shaaaaaaaane.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 18, 2009 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I miss Cliff Lee.
:_-( (That is a sad face with a tear, I made it up right now, can you tell?)
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Oct 18, 2009 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Out of town over the weekend
I am just reading this on Monday morning. Chuck, thanks a lot for your wonderful posts on VEB. I’ve enjoyed them since your houstoncardinal days. I hope that you will still poke your head in and offer us some insight (when it is convenient for you, of course).
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Same here, I missed most of the weekend chatter
Chuck, thanks for making such great contributions to the blog. Your writing always seemed disciplined, well-researched, and effective. One such as I could always count on learning something from an article you wrote. Somebody above said it well—often your articles made a point so well that there was little else to add in the discussion. Hope that didn’t frustrate you too much.
Good luck with everything, and hopefully you’ll be able to contribute here and there.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Ditto...
Thanks for ruining my Monday. Enjoyed everything you’ve done Chuck. I wish you the best.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan Fucking Ludwick
Good post. My thoughts:
Sign Smoltz as Cards’ Closer. Franklin back to set-up role w/a more mature Motte would make a filthy tandem.
Of the SP additions mentioned, I like Duchscherer best. Harden will be too pricey and fragile. Johnson’s too old. Sheets is too big of a health/effectiveness concern (see Francisco Liriano post-op numbers). Escobar wasn’t consistent enough, even when healthy and now you have to factor in age 34 – slim odds.
Let the young guys duke it out for the 5 spot.
More pressing need is offense. My FA wish list:
Jason Bay LF (Holliday production + better D)
Chone Figgins 3B (great lead-off OBP, elite speed, good D)
It won’t happen, but a guy can wish, can’t he?
by Matt Bug on Oct 19, 2009 2:15 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
bay is better
at D than holliday?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Yes.
Make no mistake. Neither are gold-glove caliber. But his glove is slightly better and his arm is significantly better. Although a +arm is less useful in LF, it would give TLR the option of moving him to RF in late game switches are line-up mix & matches as he is prone to do.
Bay is a serious long-shot, though. BoSox will likely re-sign him. Theo is a superb GM and Bay seems to like it there. It’s a good fit for both.
Many thanks to Chuckb
I hope you enjoy indoctrinating your kids in Cardinals baseball.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
perfect game!!!!111
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- New Yankees fragrance strikes nostrils this month
- Braves ditch insensitive patch on new throwbacks
- Tim Lincecum slims down with swim routine, loses appetite for McDonald’s
- Create-a-Caption: Kevin Youkilis shows up to the Super Bowl, gets ComicCon instead
- Baltimore flips Jeremy Guthrie to Colorado for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
