2010 Payroll , What do we have to spend?
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 3:41 PM EDT
255 comments
| Players | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pujols | $16M | $16M($5) | FA | ||
| Carpenter | $14.5M | $15M | $15M($1M) | ||
| Lohse | $9,187,500 | $12,188,000 | $12,188,000 | FA | |
| Wainwright | $4,837,500 | $6,688,000 | $9(O) | $12M(O) | |
| Molina | $4,312,500 | $5,313,000 | $7M(750K) | FA | |
| Franklin | $3M | $3.5M | |||
| Miller, T | $2M | $2M($1M) | FA | ||
| Reyes, D | $2M | FA | |||
| Ludwick | Arb 2[$5.5] | Arb 3 | FA | ||
| Thompson, B | Arb 2[NT] | Arb 3 | FA | ||
| Schumaker | Arb 1[$2.5M] | Arb 2 | Arb 3 | FA | |
| Kinney | Arb 1[750K] | Arb 2 | Arb 3 | FA | |
| Lugo | $400K | FA | |||
| Thurston | $400k | Arb 1 | Arb 2 | Arb 3 | FA |
| McClellan | $400K | Arb 1 | Arb 2 | Arb 3 | FA |
| Ryan, B | $400K | Arb 1 | Arb 2 | Arb 3 | FA |
| Rasmus | $400K | $400K | Arb 1 | Arb 2 | Arb 3 |
| Motte | $400K | $400K | Arb 1 | Arb 2 | Arb 3 |
| Boggs | $400K | $400K | Arb 1 | Arb 2 | Arb 3 |
| Hawksworth | $400K | $400k | Arb 1 | Arb 2 | Arb 3 |
| TOTAL | |||||
| $60,837,500 | $47.689 | $13.938 | |||
| w/ Arb | $69,587,500 | ||||
| Left Field | |||||
| 4th OFer | |||||
| Backup C | |||||
| SP # 4 | |||||
| SP # 5 |
Players Leaving: Holliday, Glaus, Pineiro, Khalil Greene, DeRosa, Smoltz, Wellemeyer, Ankiel, and LaRue
Notes:
- If it says $7(750K) the ( ) means options and whatever is inside ie 750K means the team buyout.
- Rasmus and Motte will most likely be Super Two's if they stay on the 25 man roster during most of 2010
- Arbitration normally goes 40%, 60%, and 80% what you would get on the free market.
- Total Payroll currently does not show players receiving Arbitration
- Total Payroll for future years beyond 2010 assume options were decline and buy out added into Total Payroll
- Starting Payroll in 2009 was $88,528,409 but in 2008 it was $99,624,449
- If Players had bonuses they were divided by years of contract. Than added according to each year
- My guesses for Arb: Ludwick $5.5M, Schumaker $2.5M, Thompson Non-Tendered than released, Kinney $750K
Most of the info was gathered at Cot's Contracts. I would appreciate any help in filling in the blank spots of Arbitration. I will update this when ever new info is acquired or we acquire someone.
Current Roster
1B: Pujols
2B: Schumaker
3B: (Third Basemen)
SS: Ryan
LF: (Left Fielder)
CF: Rasmus
RF: Ludwick
C: Molina
Bench: Lugo, Thurston, (Backup Catcher), (4th OFer)
SP1: Carpenter
SP2: Wainwright
SP3: Lohse
SP4: (Fourth Starter)
SP5: (Fifth Starter)
Closer: Franklin
RHP: McClellan
RHP: Motte
RHP: Hawksworth
RHP: Boggs
Longman: Thompson
LOOGY: Miller
LOOGY: Reyes
Just kind of a rough draft to throw out there. I probably have some mistakes and will need to take guesses on the Arbitration of the players. Schumaker could be a difficult one to guess. Not sure if Thompson will even be back on the team myself.
5 recs |
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(O)
indicates player option?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 18, 2009 2:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I Thought it was....
…some kind of sandwich…
;=8)
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
by The MooCow on Oct 19, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really hope thurston is not on our bench next season
and the FA under 2012 for Albert brings a tear to my eye
So, based on this, and $95M budget(in the middle of last two opening day budgets)
I have thompson and Kinney getting non-tendered and Schu+Luddy’s arby total coming in around 10-11M(2-3 fro schu, 6-8 for Luddy)…also i’ve got 3.5M for our league minimum and not arby eligible players(no thurston!!)
with that we have about $26.5million to spend on a LF, 3B, 4th OF, backup Catcher, and two starters, and thurston replacement
I’m gonna assume(and hope in some cases) that we fill the holes at 3B, backup Catcher, and one SP with “prospects” making league minimum…maybe even the fourth outfielder(Jay/Henley?) and a guy to replace thurston on the bench(CRAIG!!! or t greene)…that would be 2M more
That leaves LF and one SP to find with about 24.5M to spend…is that about right? Say we get a FA to fill couple of bench spots at around 1-2M, that leaves about 20-22M to find a LF and a SP
Personally, I wouldn’t mind bringing in another RH reliever, but with the extension to Franklin, that probably isn’t going to happen
So i guess the question is, can we re-sign Holliday and Smoltz(or get another FA starter) for no more than 25M combined? I think we probably can, but it leaves us with very little wiggle room…and really a 95M budget might be more than DeWitt is planning on
This doesn’t even take the Pujols extension into account…maybe we can seriously front load a holliday contract while backloading the Pujols contract
Jeez, i would NOT want to be John Mozeliak right now
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
by VolsnCards5 on Oct 18, 2009 3:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
2nd'd
Jeez, i would NOT want to be John Mozeliak right now
I have a feeling he’s going to have to make a bunch of unpopular decisions because he has to :P
"Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work"
-Mark Twain
by Taskmaster on Oct 18, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i for one, would trade places with MO in a heart beat
i’d love to be the Cards GM, no matter what. through good times & bad, through injuries & cold slumps, through free agency & arbitration’s, till death parts us, i would be the Cards GM forever & ever if i could
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 18, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm with you gdm.
I’m not sure the fans would like me much, though. I have a bad feeling that I’d be much more the type to follow the Patriots style of personnel decisions, meaning that for the right deal anybody is expendable.
by etp_stl on Oct 18, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
except for #5.
Stupid Sexy Flanders!!!
by timmycardinals on Oct 19, 2009 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i have already bought the firegmd426.com domain
so go ahead…
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so what your saying is, i'm going to be such a bad GM,
fans won’t even get my name right?
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 19, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought he was saying...
that since you were going to be gm you’d put that in your monicker.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Oct 19, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
doesn't franklin's extension have bonuses for games finished?
so really it would be more beneficial to get another closer that way we can shut down the eighth and ninth without franklin earning more .
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 18, 2009 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So basically
We’re looking at approximately $25M to cover: 3B, LF, C, OF, #4, #5?
by stlfan on Oct 18, 2009 4:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That is my guess
It could be closer to $20M though also
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Backup catcher should be minor league guy
Pagz
Anderson
But I would be so very happy if it was Steven Hill(power threat off bench plus emergency back-up catcher)
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 18, 2009 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking a guy
From the Rule V draft
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
anyone in mind?
i don’t like it because then he has to stay on the roster all year unless there’s actually a good option. which i doubt there will be or otherwise he would be protected
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 19, 2009 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i dont think we know who is not protected, therefore eligible, do we?
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we can speculate can't we?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 19, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no speculation allowed
read the guidlines, jeez…
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
honestly i wouldnt mind Pagz
since that backup catcher hardly ever pinch hits but what if something happened to Yadi (GOB-forbid) i would not want him getting 5 PA everygame or LaRue for that matter…
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bye Bye Pornstache LaRue...
:=8(
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
by The MooCow on Oct 19, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd have to say ...
I hope to not see Joe Thurston on the roster next year, and I have a hard time thinking we can trust in Josh Kinney again. I’m not sure that Brad Thompson shouldn’t be replaced with a more valuable internal choice, as well.
We still need damage off the bench (Craig, please), and I still don’t see this team having a true setup reliever, yet. I’m not sold on Motte or McClellan for that role. It’s also probably presumptious to assume that Freese will definitely be able to hold down the 3B job, but Mo seems set to see if it’ll work.
You may be looking at more money having to be spent on the right side of the bullpen (since we’ve traded all of our internal options), and reasonable competition for 3B to Freese. I just don’t see how the Cardinals can devote 40% of their payroll to two players (i.e. Pujols and Holliday) and still remain competitive.
by etp_stl on Oct 18, 2009 5:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I see Thompson being back
hell, we non-tendered him last year and still signed him back, right? I just see him being the fallback option, YET AGAIN (please let me be wrong). It isn’t like anyone is actually going to be bidding for his services.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Oct 18, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
People keep resigning mark hendrickson and he's even worse than thompson
what makes you think Thompson won’t move on?
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 18, 2009 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not much would make me happier than if he would move on
I just can’t fight the feeling he is going to be around to make us suffer again.
And Hendrickson is a lefty, they are always given way too many chances.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Oct 18, 2009 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the money should be allocated to three general areas
15-18M on LF
6-8 each for third or SP
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 18, 2009 7:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think there is that kind of value out there, but ...
why wouldn’t we look to switch that money for LF and 3B? 3B is a much harder position to fill, as defense is of a much higher premium at that position. You desire the same kind of offensive production from 3B as you do for LF, so it seems like that player would be inherently more valuable. The fact is that teams have won consistently in the playoffs with the pitiful defense of Manny Ramirez in LF, so obviously you don’t need a GG’er there.
Unfortunately, I haven’t heard of that kind of player in FA to fill 3B, and please don’t give me Mark DeRosa.
by etp_stl on Oct 18, 2009 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There are no good players to get at 3B
this offseason, and the money we’re tying up in LF also gets us the games best left fielder. We can’t get the games best 3B, so if we’re spending big money, might as well have the best player at the position.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree.
I was speaking more hypothetically by position value than for the specifics of this FA class. It does look like there are more high caliber LF available this year. By the same token, would you want to handcuff your payroll long term based on the best you can do this year? I hope that Mo and the group are smart enough to be looking beyond this season, as well.
by etp_stl on Oct 19, 2009 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You have to weigh that in...
but at the same time:
Holliday has the highest WAR of any LF in the game over a 3 year period, it’s not like he had a fantastic season last year and we’re going to reward him with a huge contract (Gary Matthews Jr. style).
- Holliday has the 3rd highest wOBA in baseball over the last 3 calendar years.
- Holliday has the 5th highest WAR in all of baseball over the past three seasons, and is the highest OF on the list. The next best OF? Ichiro, who was 4 WINS worse than Matt has been over that same time period.
Seriously, there are certain guys that you spend big money on, and he’s one of those guys. There have been 4 guys who have been worth more than Matt Holliday over the past three seasons: A-Rod makes $27M per season, Albert will make $20M+ per season, and both Hanley and Utley signed expensive deals to tie up their arb years.
If you’re not for spending $100M on Matt Holliday, then there’s really nobody you’d spend big money on. Period
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 20, 2009 8:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's break down Holliday right now, to see where we are at
Over the past 3 years, he’s been worth 7.9, 6.2 and 5.6 WAR. Weighting those 3-4-5 and applying an 15% regression, you get roughly 5.5 WAR. Assuming a .5 WAR decline after next year and a 10% rise in dollar per WAR, you get him worth about 105 million over the next 5 years. That’s assuming little risk of injury and an exponential raise in the dollar per WAR figure, which likely won’t be the case, as it would be roughly 7 per WAR in 5 years.
Even assuming all of those things, you get him at 105/5, 125/6 and 140/7. Honestly, I don’t expect him to sign for much less than those figures, especially considering that Boston and both of the New York may be in play, so we would be paying roughly market value for him, maybe a little less.
So let’s say that Holliday signs a 5/100 deal. He projects to average about 4 WAR and will be getting paid 20 million per. That means that in order to not sign Holliday, and be overall winners in the deal, we would have to fill 4 WAR with less than 20 million, which doesn’t seem that hard. But first you have to add on the draft picks that Holliday would net us if he walked.
I think it would be very hard to get more value out of Holliday than by taking another route. When you say:
If you’re not for spending $100M on Matt Holliday, then there’s really nobody you’d spend big money on. Period
I think I agree with that. Holliday is one of the few players out there who is actually good enough to merit a 100 million dollar contract. However, I don’t think that makes it a good deal. It raises the question of whether or not it is even profitable for teams to spend big money on free agents. I think in some circumstances, like having limited roster space, or a lot of money or a disporportionate desire to “win now”, it works. However, I don’t think the Cardinals have enough of those attributes to make a deal for Holliday profitable.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 20, 2009 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very nice breakdown, VEP.
I trust in your math, as I’m not particularly versed in that method and I know that you are. Your conclusion would lead to the very approach that I would say Minnesota uses to stay competitive.
I personally doubt the effectiveness of a strategy that would choose to have a few outstanding players surrounded by mediocrity over a strategy that would have the majority of the roster dominated by above average players at the expense of any great superstar. Of course, that apparently doesn’t play with modern ADD fans.
by etp_stl on Oct 20, 2009 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
All good stuff, though I quibble with one portion of it...
Over the past 3 years, he’s been worth 7.9, 6.2 and 5.6 WAR. Weighting those 3-4-5 and applying an 15% regression, you get roughly 5.5 WAR.
I think if he plays for the Cardinals all year in 2009, he’s worth considerably more than 5.6 WAR, maybe even as much as 7 WAR. He was worth 2.8 WAR in ~2 months of time, which is nearly a third of his total WAR for the season, and he had a pretty lackluster September in terms of slugging.
I think that 2008 was a down year for him and that his true talent level is that of his 2006 and 2007 seasons, and I think that he’ll be a 6+ WAR player for at least the next 3 seasons, and I’m willing to gamble that he has one 7-8 WAR season in there somewhere.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 21, 2009 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fourstick
I don’t see why you should discount his 2009 season simply because it was a down year; that only lowers your projection. You can’t assume that his true talent level is that of his two best seasons, because nobody’s is. That’s why regression is such a key point in all projections, an above average player is never as good as his actual performance, simply because he is a major league player and the majority of them are average. Now, we have some more information on Holliday. He’s big, strong and has good contact skills and a good eye. Players who possess those skill are generally above average, so you would regress Holliday to something like a 3 WAR mean; however, you absolutely cannot take a players past production at past value.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 21, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not disagreeing with your projection at all
Just saying that players with his particular set of skills also usually do better than a regressed projection.
Look at Jim Edmonds’ as an example. A little more HR power, a little less ability to hit for average, similar on-base ability, yet had his best seasons from age 30-34 and was worth an average of 6.5 WAR over that time. Obviously playing in CF and being a plus-plus defender helped that out, but I don’t think it’s completely out of bounds to think that Holliday can’t be that good over the next three years.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 21, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It isn't
But it’s much more likely that he will regress to the mean, like 95% of players in baseball. When making decisions about who to sign, you can’t look at a players potential, you have to look at the most realistic scenario.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 21, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably even more likely in the post-PED era.
I’m not saying that Edmonds used PEDs, but I am saying that counting on late-90s/early-2000s production from thirtysomethings has its problems.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 21, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
there is probably some systemic error
introduced by the park factors that fangraphs uses, though. Holliday probably wasn’t as good as the WAR values he put up in COL, and he was probably a little better than the WAR values he put up in STL/OAK.
I’m really having a hard time understanding what you are trying to say with the bold comment, btw.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Oct 21, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Players regress to the mean
Whenever you have a player like Holliday, who’s had a couple of great seasons, those seasons will not represent his true talent level. 95% of the time (or some very high number) a player will regress back to some sort of mean, whether it is based off his physical attributes or simply the league average. Here is a good article on the subject by DSG:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-treatise-on-true-talent/
by vivaelpujols on Oct 21, 2009 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
systemic error?
We use 5 year regressed park factors that are calculated in a reputable manner. You can see exactly how we calculate them here: http://gosu02.tripod.com/id103.html
If you have any constructive suggestions on how to improve our park factors (other than using component factors, which honestly won’t change things drastically), then by all means let us know. Otherwise, it’d be cool if you didn’t make assumptions on something you don’t know the details on.
In Holliday’s case, we’re already docking him a full win in 2007 and 2008 in park factory penalty and
by dkappelman on Oct 22, 2009 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think that Sleepy means that park factors will generally not work for Coors field
Mainly due to the fact that players there usually have massive home/road splits. I disagree with him completely there, but whatever.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 22, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
actually, no
that’s not my thinking at all. I think park factors work as well for coors field as for anywhere else, if they are properly applied.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Oct 22, 2009 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
right
you regress the park factors for coors field so far that the regressed park factor used is significantly (~30-60%) lower than any single season park factor for that field. That cannot possibly be correct.
As far as “not knowing the details”, I’m basing my assumptions about how you do park factors from what you say you do for park factors. IE, here. if you do something different than what you say you do, I apologize for being confused (but I don’t really think it’s my fault).
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Oct 22, 2009 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
COL, OAK, STL park factors
individual season data from ESPN’s park factors (runs).
year Col OAK STL 2002 1.44 0.703 - 2003 1.243 0.515 - 2004 1.412 1.012 - 2005 1.276 1.061 - 2006 1.149 0.921 0.95 2007 1.16 0.833 0.933 2008 1.126 0.916 0.943 2009 1.247 0.974 0.919 mean 1.257 0.867 0.936 fangraphs 1.09 0.98 0.98
One of these looks very different, so much so that I can’t see how the regressed numbers could possibly be correct. And it clearly hurts players in OAK/STL and helps players from COL (PHI and other pitchers parks have similar effects).
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Oct 22, 2009 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't trust ESPN park factors for much
There methodology is most likely shit. Maybe David could provide the unregressed park factors that he uses?
by vivaelpujols on Oct 23, 2009 2:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
think the short answer is
that the published numbers for fangraphs PF at that link are not their real PF numbers, but the PF/2. but you have to read the comments section to get that, and even then, players at coors are overrated by close to 25%, compared to the ESPN mean. That’s actually still a bit high, compared to the range of what “feels” right – I’d guess H was over/underrated by .5-1 win or so, not 1-2 wins, as this would indicate- but it’s not as extreme as the numbers I posted above.
Hopefully when the evil yankees overpay for him, they overpay based on the fangraphs values.
fwiw, ESPN publishes the exact formula they use for their park factors on their web site, on the very page where you get the data, so you can reproduce them if you think they are shit. It’s pretty much impossible to follow the meandering discourse on the tripod link that was posted, so there’s no way you can check the math. but ymmv.
Anyway, i really don’t understand why a “regressed” number for a field whose dimensions didn’t change is considered better than the mean over a larger sample size. Seems like it would be worse; the idea of regressing is that true talent changes with time, but true talent delta of a park whose dimensions don’t change is zero, unless someone builds a wind farm nearby or something. The humidor which is theoretically being used at coors (I have my doubts whether both teams get the same baseballs) may have an effect, but the atmospheric effects shouldn’t change much.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Oct 26, 2009 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
eh, wasn't much of a short answer
ugh.
and 2 posts above, should have been PHI and other “hitters parks”, not “pitchers parks”. duh.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Oct 26, 2009 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Depends
If you value defense, there are plenty of great FA options, including the 3b I advocate, Adrian Beltre.
But just because you have a position of need, that doesn’t mean you go after the best player there. For instance, let’s hypothetically assume that Derosa is the best 3b available, and will cost 7-8 million a year, but the talent drop off is not that bad when you got to a 2nd tier guy like Beltre, who might cost millions less with fewer years , while only costing yourself a small some offensive talent (but getting better defense I might add)
"Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work"
-Mark Twain
by Taskmaster on Oct 19, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Would anyone sign Atkins on the cheap if he is non-tendered?
He does much better against lefties, which we don’t do at all :)
He wouldn’t cost that much, so we could spend more on other areas, like Holliday and SP’s
"Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work"
-Mark Twain
by Taskmaster on Oct 18, 2009 7:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think we need OBP guys and Lefty Killers
I was going to make a separate fanpost on that subject
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chone Figgins, then?
He isn’t going to provide a great deal of power, but he provides a very good OBP that bolsters his overall OPS. Though, it does look like he’s not particularly adept at hitting LHP.
by etp_stl on Oct 18, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ironically DeRosa fits the bill if he was cheaper
He mashes lefties can be a 4th OFer and Lefty. But he will get more than we should be willing to pay
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True, but I'm hoping for better defense from our next 3B.
by etp_stl on Oct 18, 2009 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but will he hit?
I’m concerned with trusting in him too much until he’s done it, and I always prefer competition in that situation.
by etp_stl on Oct 18, 2009 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have a lot of faith in a
Freese/Craig platoon
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
can one of you guys point me to a link about freese's D'
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 18, 2009 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can't direct link to it but...
You would see he was a worth 13 Runs/150 in 07 and 12 Runs/150 in 08. Small sample in 09 but still positive
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd have more faith in it...
if the club had shown any faith in Craig at 3B. I’m not sure how bad it would have to get (Thurston anyone?) before Craig would get a shot at the hot corner. That being said; I think Freese will be above average defensively and offensively if healthy and give the chance.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Oct 19, 2009 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
beltre,figgins,inge are all great defensive 3B
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 18, 2009 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beltre seems like a good low buy candidate
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've been advocating Beltre since his testicle tore off
when you’re a joke your value gets overlooked.
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 18, 2009 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's pretty bad
Has been declining massively on offense and isn’t a good defender.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 19, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2009 payroll
I believe the opening day number of $88.5 MM is missing Kennedy’s contract. A spreadsheet from Cot’s Contracts has the payroll at $94.5 MM. I think the payroll will be closer to $98-$100 mm for 2010 opening day.
Also, Kinney might not make super two since he was in the minors a big piece of 2009. Prior to the 2009 season Kinney had 2.058 service time and in my calculations his three stints (4/6-4/17; 6/18-7/26 and 9/23-10/5) on the mlb roster earned him another 60 days. The Super Two definition per cot’s contracts:
The cutoff point generally falls between 2 years, 128 days of service and 2 years, 140 days.
Motte and Colby won’t make Super Two status until 2012.
by ubeddie on Oct 18, 2009 8:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think your right about the 2009 Payroll
I hope Kinney is not a super 2. Save us a few hundred thousand. The one thing I should of noted that most people didn’t know. Jaime Garcia already has a full year of service since he went on the DL while on the ML roster.
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thank Memphis
if the Redbirds had missed the playoffs, Kinney would have been up with the big club two weeks earlier.
by ubeddie on Oct 18, 2009 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I asked Goold about it and he said
Kinney’s service time was at 2.122. Not sure if that is enough or not
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 19, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2012 total payroll
- Total Payroll for future years beyond 2010 assume options were decline and buy out added into Total Payroll
$13.928 MM for to buy out Molina and Carpenter with # 3, # 2, # 1 # only starter Kyle Lohse. Yikes.
by ubeddie on Oct 18, 2009 8:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We are lucky to have so few bad contracts
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we dont have any bad contracts do we?
Lohse’s isnt good but it isnt crippling by any means. Carps isnt great but as long as he can pitch it is a good one. WW and Pujols are steals. Franklin’s is my least favorite right now after his extension but again it isnt crippling.
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lohse's...
could be really bad if he doesn’t recover. Not Soriano bad, but $12M for a mediocre pitcher…ugh. It’s easily my least favorite contract on the books…which is to say we’ve got it pretty good.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Oct 19, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2011, is going to be an expensive year
$7M in pay raise plus mucho Arbitration cases including Colby’s and Ryan’s first
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 9:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
if colby has a big year in 2010 do we lock him up through arbitration?
Ala tulo,braun,ramirez,pujols,wainwright(ideal situation)
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 18, 2009 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well if we try now won't we be saving ourselves maybe 2-3 million a year though?
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 18, 2009 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He hasn't done enough to warrant that, yet, imo.
I would much rather see him prove that he can hit for a full year before you go locking him up long term. I’d rather 2-3M later than several more million wasted on a prospect that misses.
by etp_stl on Oct 18, 2009 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's always gambling when you give a player a contract after their first year of success
see braun and see Carmona two players looking to go to stardom only one succeeds.
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 18, 2009 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Still worth it.
Those two salaries combined are only a fraction of what Ryan Howard is making in arbitration. If some fail, you still save a lot of money.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 18, 2009 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But at least you know what you're getting.
In addition, Colby Rasmus is not going to garner what Ryan Howard did. He is never going to provide the kind of run production that Howard does, and the fact is arbitrators dig the long ball. Even if he’s the best defensive CF in baseball after this year, that won’t even come close to the value atributed to driving in 130+ RBI.
by etp_stl on Oct 18, 2009 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
colby will
drive in 100+ plenty of times. and he’ll have plenty of pop. when he hits free agency, he will be a hot target. book it
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 19, 2009 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that will depend on where he hits
if he hits 2nd primarily he wont get to 100 very often if he hits 4/5 he will every year.
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope you're right, but ...
you are talking about a player that has missed significant time due to injuries the last three years. He could become a long term fixture, or he could become the next exasperating J.D. Drew. I’m not willing to devote a long term contract without some kind of evidence as to which one he’s more likely to be.
by etp_stl on Oct 19, 2009 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The contract we offer will be below market,
far enough to the point that if he busts (unlikely) we won’t be particularly crippled. Imagine our salary obligations if Waino and Yadi were getting paid for their Cy and GG’s instead of based on the contracts they signed during their days of league-minimum.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 19, 2009 5:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But we didn't sign either ...
after their 1st season in the big leagues. I’m saying that doing it this offseason is too soon. Do it after next year, or even midway through the year if he is performing as we expect. I just don’t want to see them do it this offseason.
by etp_stl on Oct 19, 2009 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One word.
Longoria.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 20, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wasn't his contract signed
before he’d ever made a big league appearance? My recollection: “We can’t start your clock ticking unless you sign this, in which case you will be in the bigs tomorrow.”
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 20, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought he had like 6 days of service time
Called up on April 11 2008, signed contract on either the 17th or 18th.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Oct 20, 2009 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
technically
but he had agreed to the contract beforehand – took a few days to dot the i’s is all.
it was portrayed as nearly extortion, as the kid wanted to get to the bigs so bad.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 20, 2009 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How much change ...
in that contract do you think would have occurred had the Rays waited a half a year? Just because one team took the gamble and payed off, doesn’t necessarily mean that should become the general rule for handling contracts.
by etp_stl on Oct 20, 2009 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A lot.
Longoria’s was one of the cheapest and longest contracts a highly rated pre-arb player has EVER signed.
How can you argue that his lack of service time and the team-friendliness of his contract are coincidental when everything about service time increases the player’s leverage over negotiations as he accrues it?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 21, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's clear that I'm not the gambler you are.
I’m not saying that the contract value wouldn’t change. I’m willing to pay for the peace of mind that seeing the kid play provides. You clearly believe that this kid’s talent is definitely going to translate into a top-tier player. I’m not willing to make that statement, and I’m certainly not willing to throw money at that assumption.
So, for argument’s sake, what kind of contract are you looking at to sign him now? I would say you would have to be looking at something like 5 yrs/$15M, right? That would take Colby through his arbitration years, and I don’t think that would be crippling.
by etp_stl on Oct 21, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that contract
would be amaaaaaazing
i’d think more like 7/50, 7/60 or so
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 21, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Longoria's contract ...
guarantees 6 yrs / $17.5M w/ options to go to 9 yrs / $44M. I would say that you aren’t going to sign Rasmus for more than that.
by etp_stl on Oct 21, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i hope you're right
but that contract is legendary. i don’t think it should be considered breaking point
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 22, 2009 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see why the Cards ...
would bother trying to sign him early if the best deal they’ll get is 7/60. You might as well take your chances with arbitration at that point.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
braun's contract
is pretty sweet for Brewers. Not legendary like the Longoria deal, but it’ll allow them to do alot of things moving forward.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 22, 2009 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, ...
I would say, depending upon your predictions of Colby’s offensive development, prophetjohn may not be as high as I think. I’m guessing you are looking at 7/40 – 7/50 based on incentives and options. I would think the next few years would definitely be team friendly, and you would be doing it before the economy improves.
by etp_stl on Oct 22, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
absolutely
i wouldn’t be terribly against doing it this offseason
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 19, 2009 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
colby not eligilble for arb until 2012
Colby will only have two years experience. Super Two isn’t the best players with two years experience, it’s the top 17% service time wise of the players with between 2 and 3 years experience. Colby will go to arbitration after the 2011 season.
by ubeddie on Oct 18, 2009 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you might be right
will look into it more
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i thought it was
top 17% of innings played
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 19, 2009 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Regardless
that only means that they have 4 years of Arb not that you lose a year of player control. Colby is under team control for one year longer than shown above.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Oct 19, 2009 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that, i did not know
cool
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 19, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cot's Contracts Glossary
Has all the definitions. Time not productivity determines arbitration, free agency, rule V draft issues etc. Here is the link to Cot’s Contracts Glossary.
Super 2
A player with almost 3 years of Major League service time may become eligible for arbitration.
To qualify, a player must:
- have at least 2 years of service, but less than 3, and
- have accumulated at least 86 days of service in the previous year, and
rank in the top 17% of all 2-year players in service time.
The cutoff point generally falls between 2 years, 128 days of service and 2 years, 140 days.
As AZ mentions, Colby is under team control for five more years. Now if the Cards want to play games, then send Colby to Memphis for 60 days and get another year of control. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.
by ubeddie on Oct 19, 2009 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What I think the Cardinals should do
Make Freese the 3B. Replace Thurston with Craig. Sign 4th OFer that can play CF and mashes lefties. Backup C from Rule V draft would be awesome.
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 9:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That 4th OFer should be ....
Reed Johnson, He has a career OPS against LHP of .841.
or
Gabe Kaplar, He has a career OPS against LHP of .844
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
nice split
too bad tony would pinch hit these guys against a righty and have them K to end the game.
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 18, 2009 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
both posted below average numbers because of a very low BABIP
Kaplar only made $1M this year and is also a plus fielder that can play all 3 OF positions.
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
can you tell me about rocco baldelli against leftys?
he was one the verge of stradom a few years ago.
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 18, 2009 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I would rather have him just because of his upside compared to a couple of players in their mid-thirties
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 18, 2009 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rocco is to unhealthy
He might be younger but not stable. I think Kapler would be the best signing.
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
for comparison sakes
here’s the comparison between the three.
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 18, 2009 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rocco hasn't played in even 90 games since 06
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
why so keen on durability when we're talking about a 4th outfielder
CRAIG/mather/jay could easily be our fourth.
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 18, 2009 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
how does that even relate to my post?
Durability doesn’t matter for a guy who will get maybe 15PA a week.
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 18, 2009 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what if Rasmus goes on the DL?
This guy would also be your backup CFer
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kaplar had a Projected OPS of .859 (think FIP)
But had a real OPS of .768.
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 18, 2009 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what does projected ops have to do with fip?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 19, 2009 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's more predictive than actual OPS,
in the way that FIP is more likely to correlate to future ERA than current ERA is.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 19, 2009 5:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or Mike Cameron
Career OPS vs. LHP = .859 and he’s a better outfielder than both Reed Johnson and Gabe Kapler.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the biggest problem i have with Cameron is
TLR wanting to stick him in CF all the time…not cool.
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rick Ankiel 2.0?
"Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work"
-Mark Twain
by Taskmaster on Oct 19, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh GOB, no...
Cameron at least has value as a hitter and CF’er just not as much as Clobbs Razmatazz.
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not in favor of signing an outfielder at all
but if you’re talking about signing one, he has to be in the conversation.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i thought you wanted to sign Holliday?
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm talking about 4th outfielders
which is the topic of this particular thread.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if i was smart enough to scroll up i could have figured that out...
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
4th outfielder should be Andres Torres
Assuming SF doesn’t lock him up, I think he would be an interesting choice.
He can play any of the OF positions, has very strong defense, and his swing is coming around quite nicely of late. He was also likely be quite cheap and a very good value for the money (.876 OPS and made the minimum last year).
P.S. I’m totally biased because he is a friend.
by thepainguy on Oct 19, 2009 9:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i have to say i always thought you were just pushing Torres becuase you worked with him
but after looking at his numbers this year in that ball park he looks like a very intriguing 4th OF option other than the 30% K rate but at least he has some on-base skills to go along with it. if we could get him for even double what he made this year i would be all for it.
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Others benefits
1. He’s crazy fast. He’ll remind you of the Runnin’ Redbirds of the past.
2. He’d love to be on the same team as Pujols, and I bet his hitting would get even better if he could learn from him.
3. I think his numbers could be even better if he was allowed to hit more from the right side. For various reason, the Giants liked him from the left side but he tends to hit better from the right side. I think that would drop his K rate.
by thepainguy on Oct 19, 2009 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
unless i'm missing something
why would SF give up the rights to him? he’s not even arb eligible, is he?
by _pistol_ on Oct 19, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think he just signed a minor league contract with the giants this year as a free agent
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know that contract stuf (e.g. arb)
He was a NRI this spring and signed as a FA.
According to Cot’s…
* 1 year/$0.4M (2009)
o signed for 2009 by SF as a free agent (minor-league contract)
o contract purchased by San Francisco 4/4/09
* ML service: 1.115
I honestly don’t know what the implications of this are, but I know that other teams are looking at him, so there must be some flexibility.
by thepainguy on Oct 19, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it means they can keep him for the next 5 seasons, if they want to.
all they have to do is tender him a contract this fall. He’ll play for the league min the next 2 seasons, then be arb eligible. He might even have options left.
Same thing we did with Luddy in ’07. Signed him as a minor league free agent, then added him to the 40 man, and then optioned him to memphis, bringing him up after preston wilson finally broke down for good.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Oct 19, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
("contract purchased" means "added to 40 man roster", btw)
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Oct 19, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the Rays do not pick up Crawford option i would love him
something like 3yr/12M per he could probably beat that but I would be willing to bet he can do what he does thru his age 32 season. Figgins as well try him at 3yr/8M per. if we had those two that help the offense tremendously. if we did this we wouild probably have to go with Boggs/Hawk and Garcia in the rotation but maybe we could get Smoltz for 5M plus incentives
C-Yadi
1B-Pujols
2B-Skip
3B-Chone
SS-Ryan
LF-Crawford
CF-Ramos
RF-Luddy
SP-Carp
SP-WW
SP-Lohse
SP-Garcia
SP-Smoltz
I like it personally but like i said it would be tough to get Crawford. There is not a lot of pop but i could see 120-125 HR which is about what LAD hit with their starting 9 this year.
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 10:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think Figgins packs his bags...
at that price. From what I understand LA wants him back, and he’s worth a good deal more than $8M/year. I also don’t see either guy signing for shorter than 4 years…but you never know.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Oct 19, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i agree with you there
but im not willing to go over 3 yr to sign either. i just like that lineup potential.
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I personally hope
they bring back LaRue. He is a good veteran that can handle the pitching staff, has a good attitude about being a backup, and is hilarious.
by WyoCardsFan on Oct 19, 2009 10:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bring back the stache!
"Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work"
-Mark Twain
by Taskmaster on Oct 19, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if only to appease Carp
but that could get tricky & set or bad precedent
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 19, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LaRue walks
Carp becomes annoyed and luggagey
leadership falls apart
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 19, 2009 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I firmly believe
that opening day payroll for 2009 will be right at $100M. Attendance was better than anyone in the front office anticipated this year, so I do think payroll is going to go up.
Assuming that figure, the Cards have $30M to spend this offseason. This is what I would like to see done:
- Sign Matt Holliday for anything less than or equal to an AAV of $18M per season. This is bolded for a reason, it’s the single most important piece of the offseason puzzle: tying up a .400+ wOBA hitter for the long term.
- Offer Smoltz an incentive-laden deal that pays him a guaranteed $5M and has escalators for innings pitched to take it to $8M total. If he balks, kick the tires on the pitchers that Chuck mentioned in his main post on Sunday trying to buy low on one of those guys for a 1 or 2 year deal at around $5M per season. I think there’s value there, and I think the Cardinals are in a good position to take advantage of it.
- Signing Craig Counsell to a one year deal might be a really good idea. He made $2.8M last year and is 38 — I think the Cardinals could get him for around $2M for next year. He can play all the infield positions and would provide some insurance at 3B in case Freese doesn’t work out. He also replaces Thurston’s LH bat on the bench. He’s the definition of a super-sub.
That’s it. There’s no need for another OF in my mind because AAA is full of guys that can be called up to help, and Allen Craig should be on the roster as the 4th OF. Ludwick or Schumaker can fill in in CF in a pinch, and John Jay or Shane Robinson is a phone call away.
This leaves around $4-$5 million out there to peruse other buy low candidates on the market at SP, RHRP, and so on.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 11:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I Like it All....
…apart from Counsell – I think Tyler Green can do the infield thing for us cheaper. if we get Smoltzy and one of the baby birds snaps up the 5th spot, then we cud really use some bullpen help, someone to either set up Franklin or take over for Franklin when he becomes, well, Franklin. 7-8 mil should get us a decent guy (Valverde/Rodney/Soriano) to shore up the ’pen, which I think is moore important than a MI back-up. Udder than that, I totally agree with the Holiday and Smoltz contract range, and with utilizing our baby birds like Craig, Jay, etc.
:=8)
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
by The MooCow on Oct 19, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the problem with this
is it is our exact same lineup that had an great ability to not score any runs!!! we need to get more people on base besides our 3-4 hitters. Holliday is a great hitter without a doubt but having Pujols on 1st base after they walk him every time Holliday comes up isnt going to lead to very many runs but having 2 guys on base when Pujols comes up and then 2 guys on when the clean-up guy comes up will lead to several crooked number innings…
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have some questions for you then:
the problem with this is it is our exact same lineup that had an great ability to not score any runs!!!
- Do you believe that a .311 wOBA is Colby Rasmus’ true talent level?
- Do you believe that a combination of Lugo/Freese/Counsell at 3B won’t be better than .300 wOBA at 3B? That’s how horrible our 3B were this year.
- Do you think Ryan Ludwick is a ..336 wOBA player?
- How good do you think Allen Craig is?
I don’t think any of those things are true. I think Ludwick is probably at .350 wOBA player who had a bad year this year with his early injuries. That’s a half win (~ 7 runs) difference right there. If Rasmus improves just to league average, that’s a (~15 run) difference, so there’s 2 wins on offense just from those guys improving.
I think there’s a very good chance that a Lugo/Freese/Counsell platoon at 3B is a full win better on offense than what we went to war with in 2009, and probably better defensively too, as long as Freese and Counsell get most of the playing time.
So there’s about 3 wins just from modest improvements in performance. That’s not to mention that having Holliday for a full season is about a 5 win improvement over what the Cardinals had in LF for the first 4 months of last season. I think this offense can score runs and only needs some minor tweaks.
If I thought there was anybody noteworthy on the 3B market that could help the Cardinals I’d be all for going after them, but I don’t see anyone on that list that is heads and shoulders better than Freese, and he’s cheap for the next 3 seasons if he can be a league average third baseman.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who do you think should be our 4th OFer?
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 19, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Allen Craig
or John Jay.
I’m more in Craig’s camp though, but I think we also will have to sign a LH bat for the bench if it’s going to be him, which is why I advocated for Counsell up above.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ludwick and/or Skip, possibly Mather if he's healthy.
Colby should play 162 games next year unless he’s hurt. If he’s hurt, then you bring up John Jay and he fills that spot until he’s healthy and ready to play everyday.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like to keep Skip in the IF at 2B
No more jumping back and forth. I personally would like our 4th OF to be someone that mashes lefties and can play CF. I like Craig as the 5th OFer that can also play 3B/1B.
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 19, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He would never start in CF
he would only play there in a pinch, and Ludwick would be the first option anyway.
Allen Craig mashes lefties, can play the corner positions in the OF and INF, and will make league minimum next year. Same for Joe Mather if he’s healthy. I don’t think spending money on the outfield is money well spent this offseason. If you bring in any RH hitter that can play CF, Rasmus will get platooned, and I don’t think any of us feel like that’s a good idea going forward. The kid should play every day.
If you’re going to sign a guy like that though, Mike Cameron would be my choice — the problem with getting him is that he’s going to want to start in CF, and he shouldn’t.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cameron will be to expensive
Gabe Kapler would cost only around $1M and be an excellent 4th OF on defense. He mashes lefties and I am not against a platoon of Colby in CF. I don’t think Colby is going to put up a .850 OPS against lefties next year.
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 19, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what?
Colby should play 162 games next year unless he’s hurt.
no. no one does that anymore and it is just asking for trouble out of a young player. only one player did that in all of MLB last year and it was, surprisingly, Prince Fielder
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You want to platoon him then?
Otherwise he should be expected to start everyday in CF. He might get the occasional day off, like LaRussa does with everyone, but bringing in someone to platoon with him doesn’t do him or the ballclub any good in the future.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
im not saying platoon him
if he plays 150 games i will be tickled pink (what an odd expression) that leaves 12 games someone else will need to be playing CF. If it is Skip then it will hurt the team. Being an everyday player and playing 162 games are a different animal. and someone with Colby’s build would have a tough time playing all of them without a decline in production.
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Ludwick
is an average player in CF for a 12 game span.
You’re advocating signing a player so we can use him in 12 games? That makes no sense.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ludwick would be fine for 12 games although it would be more like 20 in reality
but having a 4th OF that can play all three spots is ideal.
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mather
.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Oct 19, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if healthy this would be nice.
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I imagine Colby plays about 125 to 130 games
With a RH CF picking up the slack
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 19, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
.....isn't right handed.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you bring in a RH hitter who plays CF
he will get platooned.
Do you know nothing of Tony La Russa? If Colby starts the year 1-21 against lefties, he’ll get platooned the rsst of the year and he’ll get platooned with guys who shouldn’t be playing CF or approaching the batter’s box (Rick Ankiel anyone?). He won’t get the benefit of the doubt to work his way out of a slump.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well I am basing my fact that the 4th OFer is going to be playing more than you do
I don’t think we will resign Holliday
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 19, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
4th OF usually get
regular playing time with TLR.
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we're not re-signing Holliday
Then we need a better 4th OF, agreed.
But we also need to start shopping for a long term solution in LF as well, because I don’t see one in the minor leagues.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For what Holliday is he will end up over paid
LF should be a spot filled cheaply for the production you get. It is the 2B of baseball. Anyone can play it
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 19, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Craig or Jones?
neither will be a .400 wOBA like Matthew but i think they can both be above average LFer’s
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I worry about Craig's plate discipline
only 37 walks in 521 plate appearances, and his OBP has always been tied to his average in the minors. To be a league average left fielder, he’d need to OPS around .800 or so. If he hits .270, that’s going to be tough for him to do, and I don’t think that he projects that well going into next season.
Jones is a year away yet, and unless he suddenly finds some pop in his bat at age 23, I don’t know how you think he’s going to be a league average corner outfielder. He’s got good on base skills, but he’s not a great base stealer, and he seems to have doubles power as a line drive hitter, but he’s not going to hit a lot of homers.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
his '09 AAA OPS
was .921
i don’t think him being at .800 by seasons end, assuming he gets ~500 PAs is too unrealistic
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 19, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i dont think it is unrealistic to see Jones
hit 10-15 HR/yr. with his potential on base skills and gap power he could could easily be league average. i could see .360/.450 OB/SLG out of him in his prime years
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let me get this straight...
You guys want to let the best LF in baseball walk, and replace him with a guy who’s MLE’s are around league average?
That makes 2010 the year of Albert and the League Average All-Starts, unless Ludwick or Colby make huge improvements. You don’t contend with an offense of one superstar and a bunch of league average players in your supporting cast. Trust me, we’ve tried it for two and half years before the Holliday trade and it didn’t get us anywhere.
You either think that Craig and DJ Tools are going to be better than league average players, you go shopping, or you watch Albert walk in two years.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am being realistic
I don’t see us resigning Holliday.
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 19, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Then I don't see us contending in 2010
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just don't like putting all our eggs in one basket
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 19, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where is a FA list?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 19, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't even know Cot's had that feature.
Thanks.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 19, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is the one
i have been going off of…
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Much better list than the one I put up
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
honestly if i had all the money in the world (yankees)
i would sign Holliday without question right after i gave a blank check to Pujols but in reality it will be impossible to sign both and still keep a competitive team around them for the BOB’s
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
23 is Not That Young...
….its not like he’s 19. I say give him a shot in ST and see what he can do to make the team.
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
by The MooCow on Oct 19, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
exactly my point...
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's why Holliday is so important
Every team in playoff this year has at least three hitters with a .365 wOBA or better (yes, even the Twins). If the Cardinals don’t have Holliday, we return ONE guy with a wOBA above that mark, and while he’s the best hitter in the world right now, he can’t carry the load all by himself.
Now, if you could spread the wealth that you’re giving Holliday around and get two .370 wOBA guys for the same money that play LF and 3B, I’d be all for it. The problem is that those guys don’t exist on the free agent market this season, and looking at next year, they really aren’t likely to be found there at that time either. If you lock up Holliday, you can gamble that either Ludwick or Rasmus improves to a .350-.360 wOBA, well within the realm of possiblities out there, and that Freese puts up league average wOBA at 3B, or you bring Glaus back for one season if he’s healthy.
If you bring back Holliday, you only have to find one or two other guys on offense to jump above .360 wOBA. Without him, you have to find three, so I think he’s worth the money.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
who was the one guy?
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
u serial?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Oct 19, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is the real issue.
Two more years of Pujols and who knows how many of a healthy Carpenter. Don’t you have to make a move that allows us to Win Now? We’ve already committed to this strategy by trading for Holliday. Allowing Holliday to walk and then attempting to fill that major hole with two AAA players (that I really like, btw) doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense. If Holliday walks, we have to replace some big-time production. Perhaps signing Glaus to a one-year deal and making a trade? I don’t know. But, I am terrified at the length in years and the amount in dollars that Holliday will command on the open market.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 19, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am not prepared to pay Holiday $20M a year for 6 years
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 19, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Neither am I.
Based on the discussions in my Fanpost, I’ve come to the same place Fourstick is, I think, that anything over 6 years and $18MM in an average annual salary is too much.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 19, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Neither am I
But I think $18M AAV over a 6 year deal is worth it.
If he signs for $20+M per season it will be with the Yankees most likely (I don’t see the Pond Scum putting up that type of cash for him), which gives the front office an out
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But,
we only have Pujols for two more years, at the least. Does Holliday going to the Yankees give the FO an out with him? If Holliday leaves, don’t we re-sign both DeRosa and Glaus?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 19, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it does
“Look, Albert, we have a budget that we have to keep. We knew we couldn’t afford to keep both you and Matt at $20M+ per season and field a competitive club. We’re not in the fiscal position to bid against the Yankees”
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i see what you are saying and i agree to a point but
i didnt expect Schu, Yadi and Ryan too have as good of a year as they did. what if they all three regress and Ludwick is a .333-.340 wOBA player then we are back where we ended this year only our pitching staff is a lot worse…as for your 3B combo i think that they could pretty easily be a .300-.310 wOBA tandem. You are counting on a lot of players staying the same or increase in value while i am thinking a lot of players could stay the same or decrease in value…
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If all that happens
WE’RE FUCKED ANYWAY!!!!
You can’t replace all of those guys this offseason on a $100M payroll and you can’t hedge every bet. Simple as that.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think Ludwick and Skip will have better years in 2010
Molina and Ryan will have worst ones
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 19, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i picture this
Yadi- down
APu- down
Skip- even
Ryan- down
Luddy- up
Ras- up
WW- even
Carp- down
Lohse- up
Boggs- up
Franky- down
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But by how much?
How much worse they are definitely makes a difference. If it’s 5 points of wOBA, that really doesn’t mean shit.
I mean, Pujols career wOBA is .436, and he hit .449 this year and is in his prime. He hit .458 in 2008. His regressing to his career average costs the team about 10 runs total — he’d be a 7.9 WAR player vs. an 8.9 WAR player.
Yadi would be the worst case for regression, but he’s consistently outperformed his projections the last three seasons running, and his career average is weighed down by his horrible seasons at the plate in his first few years starting, when his offense clearly hadn’t developed as much as his defense.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Pujols and Carp are down a lot
then we are in trouble. the rest of them it doesnt matter much. in less of course they are all down then again we are probably screwed.
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 19, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right
so you make moves based on certain guys getting better and certain guys maintaining their numbers from last season.
That’s really all you can do. You hedge where you can and the roll the dice that you don’t end up with a team full of walking wounded. If that happens you’re going down anyway, just ask the Cubs.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW
Only Yadi outperformed his Marcel projection by more than .10 points of wOBA. .10 points of wOBA ~ about 5 runs. So even if those guys regress back to their 2008 pre-season projections, we’re only talking about 1 win there, and Yadi and Boog makes their’s up on defense.
It’s not worth blowing up the ship for the mutiny of 2 deck hands.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
do you think our pitching will really be as good as it was this year?
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Oct 20, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Question for a question
Does it need to be if we upgrade our offense?
To answer yours though: I think both Carp and Wainwright are more than capable of having similar performances next season, and I think Kyle Lohse will be better, if only a little bit, and he won’t probably be as good as Piniero was this season. I could see Smoltz being a good #4, probably better than Kyle Lohse this year, and Garcia/Boggs actually being a BETTER number 5 than what we had for most of the season.
So, yes, I can see our pitching staff having a similar season to 2008 barring any major injuries to Carpenter, and that’s always a worry.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 20, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
(may become violent the next time the team can't pull out a win behind a Wainwright classic.)
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 20, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
i think this is key - there shouldn't be terrible difficulty in finding
two pitchers to bring in 2+ WAR performances each in lieu of 4+ WAR from pineiro and < 0 from welley.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 20, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We already have one:
Kyle Lohse. He was a 3.1-WAR pitcher in ‘08, and a tremendous value. Of course, then Mo signed him to the contract each party is currently honoring. Lohse was only good for 0.8 WAR last season. He ought to be at least a 1-to-2-WAR improvement next year. And as tom points out, which I hadn’t even thought of, Wellemeyer was a -0.3 WAR last season, which means he was “worth” -$1.3MM (!). So, replacing him almost automatically increases the staff’s WAR by maybe 0.5-to-1.
Pineiro was a 4.8-WAR pitcher this season, which boggles the mind. We ought to make up at least 2 of that by simply giving someone who doesn’t absolutely suck the innings Wellemeyer threw and with a healthy Kyle Lohse. We might even make all of the loss up when factoring in the possibility to strike gold with a high-upside scrap off the heap (even 2.0-WAR gold).
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 20, 2009 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Skip should *not* fill in in CF, even in a pinch.
With Lugo and Craig, I don’t know that we need Counsell, and I’m someone who has been intrigued by his being a Cardinal for about five years. Of course, Craig is a question mark and Lugo is horrible at defense. Plus, TLR loves to fill his roster with middle infielders, so, it might be right up the Cardinals’ alley. There are certainly worse signings to be made.
We will offer DeRosa arbitration and no club will likely sign him until the early success of his offseason wrist surgery can be gauged, which isn’t all bad. This is an introduction to the Holliday-Goes-To-NYC Contingency Plan. I think that we need to talk to the Nats about Willingham and his .367 OBP, which would be ideal for the number two slot, IMO. After all, he is basically Chris Dunan of 2006. If the price is too high, I’m all for a Jay/Criag platoon or something. Although I doubt TLR would be.
What is everyone else’s HCTNYCCP?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 19, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pray
- That Colby Rasmus shows his true ability next year…
- That Ryan Ludwick puts up a .370 wOBA…
- That Allen Craig is at least league average in LF with the bat…
- That Troy Glaus signs for cheap for one year and puts up 2008 numbers…
- …or David Freese puts up league average numbers at 3B.
Literally, there’s nobody out there worth shopping for on a long term deal, that’s why I think a Holliday signing is a must, otherwise we’re signing the 2010 version of “Reggie Sanders Lite” on a one year deal and hoping.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I looked at Craig Counsell's numbers
And not impressed. He had an awfully high BABIP compared to his last few years. He has a career .650 OPS vs lefties
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 19, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He wouldn't play against lefties
He’s David Freese Insurance.
He can handle the glove at 3B and be a better than average defender there, and gives us a LH bat off the bench that can play all three infield positions if necessary. You HAVE to have a LH bat on the bench, and currently we don’t have one….unless you advocate bringing Thurston back.
Freese should help against lefties if he receives adequate playing time. Lugo should also help if he’s platooned at 2B with Skip. Considering that we face left handed pitching about 27% of the time on average in the last two seasons, I think that stacking our lineup with a bunch of lefty mashers for that express purpose is a little over the top.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The team already hits righties so well
So I don’t see why we need a LH bat off the bench. If someone is going to be on the bench they should be able to at least put up a .700 OPS
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 19, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because
in the late innings you need a good LH option to pinch hit for your pitcher’s spot, and we have some guys who don’t hit righties as well as Counsell does (Boog, Lugo, etc.)
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
honestly
I just don’t want another middle infielder
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 19, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The John Jay
makes the roster. Or Joe Thurston.
Tony WILL have a LH bat on the bench, mark my words….
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
contingency plan A
OF: lud, raz, CAMERON, craig, mather
IF: apu, shu, boog, freeze, lugo, COUNSELL
C: yadi+1
SP: carp, waino, LACKEY, lohse, garcia
BP: miller, reyes, franklin, motte, hawk, boggs, kmac (i would love smoltzie to close)
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 19, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd much rather kick the tires on Sheets, etc
than to sign Smoltz. not sure about Counsell, I think Freese will be fine, and perhaps Glaus will help us out with a good deal
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 19, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't think we'll get the chance
on Sheets; I’m not 100% sold on his healthy, either. Smoltzy is back now; I think its a mistake to see him as anything beyond a #5, or a #4 at best, but he’s already in the fold, so to speak. Maybe we cud get both and keep the ’pen full of young, healthy arms…
:=8)
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
by The MooCow on Oct 19, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i hate Counsell, he's easily in my top ten most hated current players
i just can’t stand that dude
good thing is, he’s either going to retire or come back to the brew crew.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 19, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Roster Matrix
Surely, we will be getting the good ol’ VEB Roster Matrix out of in-season storage, so that we can drive it around the block a few hundred thousand times this Hot Stove. Great start to the Hot Stove…
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 19, 2009 12:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
How do we feel about...
Craig+Sanchez+Hamilton for Papelbon?
I might be ok with that, since they seem set on Freese at third.
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 19, 2009 11:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Is payroll going up?
If it’s not, we can’t afford an $8M closer next season.
Also, I don’t think there’s any way that Boston does that deal — there’s one good closer on the FA market this offseason, so if they decided to deal Papelbon, there will be better offers than that out there.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 20, 2009 8:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unless, of course, you send some money their way somehow
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Oct 20, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Boston has the best 1B prospects
in baseball so i doubt they would be interested in Hamilton, with apologies to Smoak. but i guess they could always use one to DH.
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 20, 2009 8:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather sign Billy Wagner to a one- or two-year deal.
I’m finding myself more and more on the Wagner bandwagon, especially after watching good bullpens shorten the game of clubs like LA and NY.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 20, 2009 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Am I the only person who thinks we(duncan) could change rich harden
he trys way to hard for the stirkeout but with duncan he could reduce his Pitches/inning and go deeper into games plus he could get a clutch K (ala wainwright curve)
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 20, 2009 12:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Does he throw a two-seamer?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 20, 2009 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Duncan has a miracle arm salve
that will prevent Harden from getting hurt? Kidding…
I see no problems with Harden other than his arm is apparently strung together with loose rubber bands and wood glue. When he’s healthy, he’s effective — kinda like Chris Carpenter.
If you’re referring to his struggles in 2008, his fastball velocity was down (nearly 2 mph), and he was pretty unlucky with the gopher ball (1.47 per 9 IP, which is nearly double his career average). I think if you moved him to Busch III (suppresses homers) and he stayed healthy enough to pitch 160 innings, he could give us #2 starter like production. As chuck posted the other day — dude was worth 4.4 WAR in only 150 innings in 2008 for the A’s and Cubs.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 20, 2009 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And then plug the odd man out of the #5 starter derby into the remainder of the innings Harden doesn't throw
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 20, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right
You could give him and extra day off now and then by making him the #5 starter, since #5’s generally don’t throw more than 160 innings in a season anyway. That’s what the Cubs did with him this season.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 20, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
are we guessing here that Sheets will get a lot more money than Harden?
because I think I’d rather take my chances on Sheets
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 20, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Just never really liked Harden
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 20, 2009 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How about Carl Pavano?
He seemed to do well when he was traded to the Twins. He got shred to pieces by the Yanks (Who doesn’t :P), but I think a change to the NL would do him some good. I just don’t know what kind of contract he would be offered, but I can’t assume it would be worth that much. He was worth 3.7 WAR in 2009 with the Indians and Twins combined, and was worth about 16 million dollars.
He’s a type B, so he would cost a 2nd round pick, but does anyone support Pavano?
"Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work"
-Mark Twain
by Taskmaster on Oct 21, 2009 11:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Type B's do not penalize the team acquiring them- only type A's require the acquiring team to give up a pick.
If Pavano’s next contract looks anything like his 2009 deal, then we should be all over that. If it looks like Kyle Lohse’s contract, not so much.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 21, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I suspect it will be Lohsian.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 21, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would be amazed if any team would commit a long term deal to him.
"Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work"
-Mark Twain
by Taskmaster on Oct 21, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i agree.
pavano only makes sense for the cards, though, as a low-end property if the cards sign holliday and he’s all we can afford. we could do much better with slightly more money on the many damaged goods pitchers out there.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 22, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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