2 (well 3 technically) moves that change our team for the better in 2010
by Dave0585 on Oct 13, 2009 8:52 PM EDT
162 comments
Not sure if this deserves a fanpost, but I was thinking (due to local talk radio in St. Louis)...what major moves do the Cardinals need to be as good/better next year. It seems to me that beyond the obvious (resign Holliday or trade/sign a productive 4 hitter who plays the OF), the bullpen seems to be quite the popular place to upgrade. Surprisingly to me, most people say we need to shore up the back end. I am not a fan of McLellan as he still seems to lack the control you need in a high leverage guy in the bullpen (those walks and first pitch balls really put ya back when you're comming into situations with runners already on base)....the LOOGYs were great this year, and even though he melted down, Franklin was an all star with an 88 save %....I dont know the exact numbers but people say to move him back into the 8th inning (which i suppose is OK, but Franklin still needs credit for a pretty nice year). Anyways, to the meat. If we are going to look for a strikeout, shutdown closer, we will need to trade for a cheap guy...a la Jonathan Papelbon, who just so happens seems to be speculation out there that the Red Sox could dangle him for an impact bat...Ludwick anyone??
I would be in favor of this kind of trade, with some contingencies. First, must bring in an impact bay (Bay) or resign Holliday...I don't think our system can bring in any impact value right now, so our options seem to be limited in that regard. But if we can do that, that seems to shore up a pretty nice back end of the bullpen (remember how short the games were vs the Dodgers b/c of their bullpen???) Motte (who i think will make some nice strides forward next year, Franklin, then Papelbon?? Seems like a wet dream for TLR and Dunc....now for the whole in RF.
I say bye bye to Ankiel..and I'm not sold on Mather as an everyday player nor even platooning with Jay or Craig...Abreu seems to be a nice (although probably not cheap) short term option, but should fit into our budget in terms of dollars and years
1 Schu - 4
2 Rasums -8
3 Pujols -3
4 Holliday -7 (or Bay)
5 Abreu-9
6 Freese - 5
7-Molina -2
8 Ryan -6
Maybe switch Freese and Rasmus (even move Rasmus to 5 and slide Abreu to 6) so Freese can have the best place to hit in baseball...2 moves, substaitally changes our team (not signing DeRosa and Pinero should offset losing our 1st round pick for signing Abreu)....i actually think i may like
1. Shcu
2. Ryan
3. Pujols
4.Holliday (or Bay)
5. Rasmus
6. Abreu
7 Freese
8 Molina (i hate having him 8th b/c he is so slow and forces a perfect bunt for the pitchers to advance him, and then even on 2nd its not a garuntee he scores on a single by schu or ryan)
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Ludwick for Papelbon?
Why would they do that?
by chuckb on Oct 13, 2009 8:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That would probably be a great trade for them
by vivaelpujols on Oct 13, 2009 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Red Sox fan's point of view
Maybe they could get a better player than Ludwick, but overall, it makes sense. The only problem is that Bard isn’t ready. He will need probably one more year to develop.
You see, you spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball, and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around all the time. ~Jim Bouton, Ball Four, 1970
by BoldandBrash on Oct 19, 2009 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's a great deal for them
- They shore up LF with a cheap player who is under control for a few more years.
- They now don’t have to spend money on Jason Bay.
- They have more than a few candidates to replace Papelbon (Daniel Bard anyone?), who is about to get expensive in his last year of arbitration. He probably won’t be back with them after next year, so why wouldn’t they trade for someone like Ludwick, who fills a hole for them?
That’s a horrible deal for St. Louis. Sure, we bolster the back of our bullpen, but we probably end up paying $8M-$9M to do it. Then we have to replace Ludwick’s production in RF as well as re-sign Holliday in LF and still add a starting pitcher.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 14, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the only thing to replace
is his RBI production which could be done with Abreu
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
by DESTROYER on Oct 15, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bobbeh
Bad deal. He’s real patient, but is getting older and is a terrible fielder.
by Notorious PSC on Oct 17, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Holliday is a must
Hopefully we can sign DeRo, if not, getting Craig to the MLB is a must.
Lud for Papelbon? Yak. I don’t think we need a guy that talks trash and that kinda stuff all the time. Papelbon wouldn’t fit the Cardinal way.
Looking forward to Cardinals baseball in 2010!
Feel free to follow me on Twitter: @zoomzoomj88
by zoomzoomj88 on Oct 13, 2009 9:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
not if we like having Franklin close games out
Personally, I like guys in the 9th who get outs, but I’m weird that way.
by chuckb on Oct 13, 2009 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
I’d rather have a good closer than Holliday. call me crazy.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 14, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not me
I’d rather have the best LF in baseball playing every day than a closer who only pitches 70 innings a year, at most.
Franklin was pretty good all year long until September.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 14, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well
he would be better as a setup man imo. he doesn’t do us much good if he can’t be effective all season
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 14, 2009 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
which begs the question
why did Franklin and Pineiro lose their effectiveness in the last month or so? fatigue? or both regressing at the end of the season? probably impossible to tell for sure
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 14, 2009 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Franklin lost it because he reacted badly to getting squeezed
And it snowballed. He’s the kind of guy who has to get on a roll … and his game depends on his control and the umpires’ strike zone. He lost his cool over umpires not giving him his zone, he started to doubt himself after he signed the big contract in a (bear with me) I’m-not-Izzy way. He was also sat wayyyyyyyyy too long twice in the last months, so he could sit there chewing his beard and thinking about how he screwed up.
Translated on the field to his old way of doing things — more pickoff throws to first, working slower (I knew I’d be trapped in my seat for 2008 Frankie… he took for-effin-ever), overthrowing somewhat during his first playoff appearance. Contrast the one time he righted the ship, when all he had to do was take a day off and play catch with his son.
If he has no mechanical problems, I think he’ll come back to a middle ground between spring Frankie and autumn Frankie. Closer is not an easy job, and I think if he can have Yadi out there and get psychologically comfortable in the driver’s seat, he’ll make it work.
Also, parts of Duncan’s game plan were stupid. Who knows if that’ll be fixed — Frankie if anything will always follow orders.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 15, 2009 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What if he's horrible in June and then awesome in September/October though?
Everyone’s got anxiety because of his performance in ONE game of the NLDS and his struggles in September, but everyone forgets that he was the best closer in the game for the first 4 months of the season. He had a season that is right up there with some of Izzy’s best seasons in the BotB, yet we’re crucifying him for one bad game. I realize it’s the playoffs, but come on people.
I still think that Sanchez has the ability to close games for us in the future, and he was lights OUT at AA in his stint there. We also have two other right handers from the ‘09 draft (Kelly, Bittle) that have the “shutdown closer” profile: high K/9, low BB/9, low HR/9. If they can translate those numbers to the major league level, they could be in the bullpen as early at 2011. Why would we add a $9M closer, who coincidentally just blew Game 3 in his team’s ALDS series to send them home for the year, when we have enough talent on the current ballclub and in the minors to fill the back end of the bullpen up in the next couple of seasons?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 15, 2009 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
was I the only one who liked his second stint in the NLDS?
I was a bit out of it, to be fair….
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 15, 2009 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no kidding.
btw, what is “the Cardinal way”?
Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
by Tackle Box on Oct 14, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder about this myself
Many times. Do people really believe our guys are always as pure as the wind driven snow? We’ve had some imperfect souls ourselves, just like everyone else. I also wonder what the big deal is if you take a few chances on people now and again, if the benefit outweighs the risk. I’m not talking about Papelbon specifically, just in a more general sense. If a guy costs himself millions of dollars in salary because he is a pain in the ass to be around, then isn’t it possible that those millions of dollars in savings present a team that is willing to put up with the headaches a unique opportunity to gain value on their opponents?
I mean, all things being equal, I’d rather have the guy that is liked by his teammates and gives the right quotes (like DeRosa) over a guy who makes everyone cringe every time they see him (like Bradley). But if Bradley ends up costing less for the same production or better, isn’t there some type of breakeven point where, if it is crossed, the headaches, in-fighting, whatever it may be, becomes worth it?
by Merry CRasmus on Oct 14, 2009 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I swear THT actually tried to calculate
what teams would tolerate in terms of wins. Now I can’t find the article.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 14, 2009 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well no wonder
thanks VEP
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 14, 2009 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty cool read
In some of those cases, the team involved was already in deep trouble, so the value of any added wins could have been severely marginalized. So translating those particular wins into dollars seems sketchy. The whole thing is darn tough to quantify, but I’m thinking this can be an area where opportunity exists.
by Merry CRasmus on Oct 15, 2009 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I tend to agree with Sky
That any regression model attempting to quantify the “Bradley effect” is going to have way to much noise to get any good conclusions.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 15, 2009 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Abort! Abort!
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 13, 2009 9:39 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
don't know anything
about papelbon’s contract, but if the sox would trade him for lud, as much as i love lud, i’d have to do it in order to flip papelbon for carl crawford or such.
abreu would bat second, wouldn’t he?
not enough time right now to go further into this.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 13, 2009 9:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
nor should there be.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 13, 2009 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
kablooey?
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 13, 2009 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This blows my bowles more than my brain.
/gross!
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 13, 2009 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
RIP Phil
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 14, 2009 2:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Loved that guy...
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 14, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"better to burn out than fade away"?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 14, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course, I'm not sure he peaked, either.
by spants on Oct 14, 2009 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he peaked when he was on the simpsons
not really though he was great
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 14, 2009 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He was too much of a workman
never got full of himself. He could have demanded Dave Fole’s role on NewsRadio, but rather did what he through was better for the show.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Oct 15, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Phil's role of "Bill" was a far more memorable role,
even if it commanded less screen time. I love that show.
by spants on Oct 15, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
do you mean bowels?
because bowles is my last name
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 14, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What are you doing to CardsFanInChitown?
Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
by Tackle Box on Oct 14, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Then we Move Mather for Cain
And really own this place.
by Gibson on Oct 14, 2009 10:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Paying for saves
Is stupid, contracts offered for closers are so idiotic in my opinion. Look at BJ Ryan, Kerry Wood, Fuentes (ERA-wise, come on). It’s not worth the price. There is no such thing as a shut down closer. Nathan implodes in the playoffs, so did Huston Street (TWICE) who has been impeccable all season.Therefore, trading decent offensive production for a closer is not the greatest idea. Now, trading Ludwick for someone like Jurrjens, that’s a different story.
Abreu is at the peak of his production, there is absolutely no way he will produce any better than that, especially if he leaves the incredibly sound Angels lineup.
Bay probably won’t be an option. I don’t think that Boston can afford to let him go, so they will go all out on him. So it’s basically Holliday or bust, as there aren’t many options that would be worthy of the cleanup in FA, or even in trade for that matter.
"Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work"
-Mark Twain
by Taskmaster on Oct 14, 2009 11:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
They could let Bay go
if we trade them Ryan Ludwick.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 14, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why would they though?
Ludwick isn’t at all a financial constraint on the team. They wouldn’t be able to resist having that good of a lineup with Bay, and it’s not like they are financially crippled or anything. Now, they might be less inclined to give him a large sum of money, but they still probably want him.
"Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work"
-Mark Twain
by Taskmaster on Oct 14, 2009 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ahh, posted before i could finish
They are probably looking to replace the production of an unreliable JD Drew or even Ortiz if he breaks down.
"Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work"
-Mark Twain
by Taskmaster on Oct 14, 2009 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hence
the word “could”. It gives them options. Currently they don’t have any — they’ll have to sign Bay or Holliday to man left field to keep up with the Joneses’ assuming the Yankees are also in the mix to sign one of those two guys.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 15, 2009 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No thanks...
to Lud for Papelbon. Papelbon is under control for two years at probably around $16 mil. That’s a fair chunk for a reliever, and his numbers seemed to have taken a somewhat ominous turn. I’m sure unloading on some dimwitted GM is exactly what Theo wants for Christmas this year.
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 14, 2009 12:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
sign Valverde
despite his insanity. I like him more than Papelbon anyway
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 14, 2009 1:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Valverde makes Joaquin Andujar...
look stable. He’d be great theatre, and a meme-generating machine.
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 14, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
exactly
he’d be fun to watch because he is f’n nuts! I was also thinking about making the Joaquin Andujar comparison, heh
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 14, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
how much is valverde going to cost?
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 14, 2009 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that is a very good question
but it would depend on the teams in need of a closer. you are probably right, someone is going to overpay for him… but then again I’m not sure what to expect from the market.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 14, 2009 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was in Diamondback-land...
from 2002-2008. Valverde is decent… not as good as Izzy when his hip wasn’t barking… too many walks. But he’s the kind of guy you get tired of real quick. The meltdowns are so extravagant, every detail sticks with you in excruciating detail.
Speaking of this… Bring back Izzy?
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 14, 2009 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He would cost us a first round pick
(Insert Your Own Joke)
by AWolfAtTheDoor on Oct 15, 2009 2:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is horrible from a number of angles...
- Papelbon isn’t going to be “cheap”, he wasn’t cheap last year ($6.25M) and is Arb II this offseason in which he’ll make more than that. Then he’ll make even more after next season before becoming a free agent. You’re trading two years of a cheaper, more productive outfielder for a closer who will be among the most expensive in the game. Not a good trade for the Cardinals.
- We’ve traded Ludwick, so we now have to sign Holliday/Bay or replace both corner outfielders with farm system guys. I like Craig and Mather, but they ain’t replacing Holliday and Ludwick by any stretch. So we sign Holliday for $18M per season and replace Ludwick with Craig/Mather/Jay in RF.
- We have roughly $30M to spend on FA this offseason, and you just spent it on a closer and the LF without addressing 3B or SP, which are much bigger needs this offseason. If you sign Abreu, you’ve spent all of it for three guys with a combined WAR of about 9 or so. That’s not a great return, imo.
- Who’s our #4 and #5 starters? Garcia/Boggs? What happens if one of them sucks? What do we do then?
- Who starts at 3B? Craig? Mather? Freese? What happens if they all three suck? What do we do then?
We could find a pretty damn good starting pitcher for what we’d have to pay Papelbon, and trading Ludwick for him kills our payroll flexibility/offensive output a whole lot more. Now, if we trade Ludwick for Papelbon and then flip Papelbon to Tampa for Carl Crawford I like it — at that point we have no need to sign Holliday and can look for a one year replacement for Ludwick in RF — hopefully Daryl Jones is ready for prime time after next season.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 14, 2009 2:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Oh, almost forgot
6. If you sign Abreu and Bay, you better sit down with your pitching staff and let them know that any fly ball near a gap or the line is now going to be a ground rule double. They are two of the worst corner outfielders in all of baseball and there’s no way that their hitting can make up for it.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 14, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
recd for pointin out the obvious
but +100 for long post
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 14, 2009 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i really dont believe ludwick is as valuable as he seems. he hit high with runners in scoring position but when we needed him most against big pitchers he seemed to strike out. A LOT
by cardsforever on Oct 14, 2009 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i like guys (not really) who hit high with RISP
(not that there’s anything wrong with it)
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 14, 2009 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll take strikeouts over GIDPs every day of the week
by Ray Lankford on Oct 15, 2009 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The irony....it burns.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan Fucking Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 23, 2009 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would normally agree with you, but I think you might be underrating Paplebon a little bit
Over the past 4 years, he’s been worth an average of 2.6 WAR, and that comes in the AL East, which isn’t yet accounted for by FanGraphs. Plus, there is a decent case to be made that WAR undervalues closers.
I wouldn’t want to trade Ludwick, but Paps might not be such a bad return.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 14, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
I thought you’d be against this trade for sure. He’s probably going to make around $8.5M next season — you’d want to pay that for a closer who probably won’t be worth more than 3 WAR?
I think he’s a great closer, but I don’t think he’s worth giving up Ludwick, unless the team thinks that Daryl Jones is ready to start in RF next season and we are going to sign Holliday. Replacing two corner outfielders, a SP, and a 3B with around $30-$35M to spend is going to be pretty difficult to do. A lot of things would have to break right with the youngsters for this deal to work out in the Cardinals favor.
I would also worry a bit about Papelbon’s regression this season. Nearly all of his peripheral numbers are down this season after being pretty consistent the previous three seasons. He walked 2 more batters per 9 this year than in ’08, and his FIP and tRA are both a run higher than they were the year before. His strand rate was better than last year, but I think that has to do with his ridiculous numbers with the bases loaded this season — which I think has a lot more to do with luck than with good pitching.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 15, 2009 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, Paplebon had a down year
But it was still very good 3.03 FIP, and I see no reason why we should expect him to get worse rather than regress back to the 06-08 levels. Doing a “proper” projection gets you something like 2.5 WAR, which is quite good and definitely worth his contract. Also, I don’t think that WAR is a great tool for evaluation relievers, but that’s not really relevant until I can prove it right now.
Anyway, Ludwick is probably a 3 WAR player going forward, with a better contract, so in that light it wouldn’t make sense. However, we have more depth in the outfield to replace Luddy than we do in the pen.
I still probably wouldn’t do the deal though.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 15, 2009 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can see where you're coming from...
I guess I’m just one of those guys who prefers the Atlanta Braves (‘91-’04 version) method of developing a bullpen — develop tons of relief pitchers through the farm system. I think that the Cardinals have done a good job of this, and I’d rather they stick with it versus trading for a closer who’s going to get paid around $20M+ over the next two seasons.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 15, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Considering that Ludwick declined pretty significantly last season
And that we have other outfield options, and that the right side of our bullpen looks kinda questionable going into next season, and that it’s not like Ludwick’s going to make nothing in arbitration next season, I’d do that deal in a heartbeat.
It’s moot anyway, though, as I would think that the red sox could probably get a better contract for a ‘name’ closer anyway.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Oct 15, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
(....because he was injured
and did not find his swing until the very end of the season.)
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 15, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
At a certain point, though
you have to factor in the fact that he’s been injured for the bulk of his professional career, no?
I’m not saying that he’s not a useful player, or that if he’s with us, he shouldn’t be in the starting eight. What I am saying is that he’s almost certainly worth less to us than Papelbon is right now.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Oct 15, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, but that's averaging out his whole career when we're talking about his value *right now*
a bit misleading. Starting and stopping is not the best thing for a streaky hitter. Are you saying that Ludwick will get injured next year? And betting that against Papelbon’s continued effectiveness?
Ludwick is our best outfielder, and he’s our veteran outfielder. IMO the guy’s in line for a Gold Glove even with his limited playing time. As good as Colby is, he’s still making rookie mistakes, and I do not think we should sell off 9 innings of run-prevention plus offensive performance for maybe 1 inning of the run-prevention only… nor risk turning the whole outfield into a black hole. The opportunity-cost tips the balance, for me.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 15, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
When a guy with an injury history gets injured AGAIN
It should strike a chord. As of now, Ludwick’s been healthy and playing for about two continuous seasons. He’s spent most of this season either hurt or ineffective. Meanwhile, Papelbon’s spent his whole career as a premier closer. Furthermore, we have outfield depth, particularly if Holliday gets resigned.
And our bullpen is still something between shaky and horrible from the right side.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Oct 17, 2009 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I gotta say, this is flying in the face of actual facts
How does a hip injury as a rookie relate to a strained hammy?
And the guy who wins Player of the Month is suddenly has an “ineffective” season? Who did in fact adjust his swing and return to his old form?
Brendan Ryan is an injury risk. Ludwick is no more injury risk than Albert Pujols, especially since he’s shifting his offseason training regimen.
And you’re going to stake Papelbon’s storied career versus his future production, despite all the trends downward? or are you just going to say he’s facing AL hitters, and its their fault he’s constantly working with runners in scoring position?
your argument would be more compelling if you weren’t glossing over the details. even I don’t pay that much attention and I can spot the generalizations.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 18, 2009 1:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Papelbon's advanced stats may be trending down
but aside from a spike in his walk rate, last year looks like quite the typical year for him—strikeout rate is the same, HR rate down, hit rate down, ERA down.
Meanwhile, you’re glossing over the fact that Ludwick lost 200 points of OPS between 2008 and 2009, driven by a huge sapping of his power. HIs season totals had him hitting roughly at league average while missing significant time. If you look at his Monthly splits, only in July did he even match the type of performance you got out of him in 2008.
And this doesn’t even address the positional scarcity argument—this team is in trouble without some sort of relief help (though this could be something like Motte or Kinney straightening out, admittedly)
And I think that everyone admits that Albert Pujols is a moderate to high injury risk, but there is a huge difference between someone who has never missed more than a month in his pro career, and who consistently performs at the very top of the entire game, and someone else who has had significant injury time in his career, and spotty performance (with an admittedly high ceiling) spread out around several years.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Oct 18, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There is no evidence that trends are predictive
You have to take a look at previous season and weight them accordingly. Doing so for each Paplebon and Ludwick has about a 1 WAR edge to Ludwick.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 19, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What if we tossed in
someone like Tyler Greene along with Luddy. Does anyone really see a future for him here with the emergence of Boog? Sox need a new shortstop, and while he’s not quite what they are looking for now, he has shown power at AAA, and if the sox are willing to trade Lugo for the past existence of a power hitter then they’ll eat that up.
It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard... is what makes it great.
by lukyduk on Oct 15, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
much as I like Boog
there is always a future for a backup shortstop as long. Boog is an injury magnet.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 15, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
^as long as Ryan is our starter
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 15, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Couldn't Kozma
be our future backup hypothetically. There is still a decent amount of speculation on him isn’t there? Just sayin maybe Greene has some trade value as a former first rounder with power in the middle infield.
It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard... is what makes it great.
by lukyduk on Oct 16, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he is light years away.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 16, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the sun
has a better chance of making the roster.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 16, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No we did that already.
The coaches sons haven’t been good for us. Oh, wait! I misread that. Sorry!
by etp_stl on Oct 16, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I laughed
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 16, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just remember
that we went into this season thinking that we were flush with 3B options, then got to the middle of the year and were starting Joe Thurston at 3B and had to make a trade to pick up Mark DeRosa to avoid doing that the rest of the season.
I don’t think that we have a lot of outfield depth, actually. If you trade Ludwick, Rasmus will have to play everyday, and we don’t have a single player to put on either side of him. It’s not like the market is full of great corner hitting outfielders that play good defense, and Allen Craig can only fill one of those spots. If you think DJ Tools is ready for prime time or that John Jay can produce like a corner outfielder, perhaps you do this deal. I’m not certain that Craig is even an option to anyone in the front office, for whatever reason, so that makes me even more skeptical about the other two players.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 15, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can also take a chance on Mather
maybe throw a middling short-term contract at a few of the journeymen types floating around. I know that people around here hate the $5M type contracts to middling players, but they do help stabilize the roster, and avoid things like the Ank/Dunc LF disaster.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Oct 18, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
valatan
i agree that pap could get more than ludwick, which is why the only reason we should do the deal is to flip papelbon for more than lud. otherwise i keep lud over papelbon for most of the reasons others have stated.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 15, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Luddy for Papelbon
sounds pretty good to me. I read somewhere that Ludwick is probably looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of $6-7 million from arbitration this season, so trading that in for Papelbon’s $8-9 wouldn’t really be that much of a cost increase.
We would then have a dominant closer (even if not as dominate as previous years, he still beats the numbers other closers around the league put up) for our last 2 garunteed years with Pujols.
“Pujols told a Dominican radio station on Wednesday that he is in no rush to make a decision.”
“He says he prefers to play for a competitive team that can advance to the postseason.”
I kind of read this as we have 2 years to make the playoffs each year or el hombre could be seeking greener pastures. I think having a solid back of the bulpen with Papelbon and Frankie setting up would be more crucial than Ludwick, who, lets face it, is never going to flash the power quite like he did in 2008 ever again.
And as far as money constraints go, when having to replace Ludwicks production in the lineup, I think we really have more than 30 mil to spend, according to this we only have 56 mil locked up. Add another 3 to that if you think we’ll bring back 8 guys at league min and we’ll only need 8 more guys that we can spend around 41 mil on if we’re sticking to last years 100 mil range.
It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard... is what makes it great.
by lukyduk on Oct 15, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That spreadsheet is way off
We actually have about $79M locked up already for 2010.
The spreadsheet that you’re linking to is subtracting all of Lugo’s salary without actually adding in his salary that’s paid by the Red Sox. You add that $9.25M back in and we’re right at $65M already for next year.
It isn’t factoring in arb raises for Skip or Ludwick, who will be on the roster, or for Thompson and Kinney who might be.. There also aren’t any of the league minimum contracts on there, and while they’re small, when you have as many as the Cards do they do add up.
Skip (Arb1) – $2M (est.) for 2010
Ludwick (Arb2) – $6.5M (est.) for 2010
Thompson (Arb2) – $900k (est.) for 2010
Motte, Rasmus, Hawksworth, Garcia, Boggs, Ryan, Freese, McClellan, Pagnozzi (assuming we don’t resign LaRue), Lugo (who we have to pay league minimum to even though his contract is covered by the Red Sox) = 10 X $440,000 = $4.4M
You add all that up ($65 + $9.4M Arb + $4.4M LM) you get about $78.8M already on the books next year. If you subtract Ludwick out of the equation it’s around $72M. That’s where I’m getting $30M when it’s actually probably closer to $25M more that will be spent next year for a 4th SP, LF, and 3B, assuming they don’t just go with Freese and no back up plan, which I don’t expect that they will. He’s still a pretty unknown quantity at this point
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 15, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Never mind,
I refreshed it and Lugo’s salary showed up. So subtract $9.5M out of my totals.
That leaves us at around $69.5M for next season that is locked up. So right around $30M or so to spend to fill the SP, 3B, and LF holes. Take out Ludwick and it would be around $36.5M but we’d have another hole to fill as well.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 15, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are we going to need a rosterbation thread before the end of october?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 14, 2009 6:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i'm surprised we didn't need one two hours after jo-el left the mound.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 14, 2009 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
or went to the mound?
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Oct 17, 2009 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
RUDY JARAMILLO!!!!!
is a free agent hitting coach and is widely regarded as very good. I remember Derosa saying something about how he resurrected his hitting in Texas with Jaramillo. Can we begin the sign Rudy bandwagon yet?
You may run like Hayes, but you hit like shit.
by flipthebird on Oct 14, 2009 7:06 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
What about Marlon Byrd or Xavier nady as cheap pick-ups?
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 14, 2009 8:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I was contemplating Nady
seems like it would work
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 14, 2009 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he's coming off of TJ, which shouldn't be an issue
i think he’s kind redundant on the Cards. we’ve already got Craig & Bombs.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 14, 2009 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree but having Nady would boost production quite a bit if he starts in left or right when we need to give players a rest.
plus a immediate threat off the bench could boost, be it Craig or Bombs. But for freaking sakes I want Stavinoha off the 40 man roster, him and sherer.
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 14, 2009 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
under the impression
that was his second TJ. could be confused though.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 15, 2009 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would like Byrd
Good hitter, good defender, cheap.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 14, 2009 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not quite sure though
why was josh hamilton playing center in full duty when the rangers had this guy to handle the field
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 14, 2009 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why was Ankiel playing CF when we had Rasmus?
by spants on Oct 14, 2009 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you're right baseball is crazy sometimes
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 14, 2009 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
fixed
you’re right baseball Tony is crazy sometimes
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 14, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
both baseball and Tony are crazy
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 15, 2009 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
as they say
The GOB are crazy.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 15, 2009 2:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh, typing fail.
The GOB must be crazy.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 15, 2009 2:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
they ain't crazy, they are just bastards
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 15, 2009 5:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
have you seen *that* movie, gdm?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 15, 2009 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i don't know what moive you're talking about, so probably not
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 15, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
how about...
resign holliday
colby in center EVERYDAY
trade ludwick for closer (idk who but we can figure it out)
get left handed defensive right fielder
resign smoltz
let go of ankiel derosa and pinero
put mitchell boggs in the rotation
keep hawksworth in the bullpen and let him develop like..dare i say… wainwright
give freese a chance
so rotation would be
wainwright
carpenter
lohse
smoltz
boggs
bullpen
closer
hawksworth
franklin
mcclellan
reyes
miller?
motte
lineup
ryan ss
shumaker 2b
pujols 1b
rasmus cf
holliday lf
molina c
left handed hitting right fielder rf
freese 3b
by cardsforever on Oct 14, 2009 8:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I would rather try and sign Putz or Wagner or Valverde or Hawkins or soriano or Gonzalez or Danys Baez
alot of closer options without trading a producer in right field. An you didn’t even mention Garcia he could easily take over boggs in the rotation and we would finally have a lefty to start against a lefty hitting team. Dare I say Have Boggs and Garcia start according to matches and use them in relief.
Seriously though some of the things you wrote would actually hurt us more than help, such as relying on freese without signing a backup at third , or signing a left handed right fielder? you do know that we suck against south paws right?
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 14, 2009 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
we really need to sign someone that rips lefties
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 15, 2009 1:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Omar Vizquel actually destroys lefties
If you look at his limited stats. I would advocate signing him.
"Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work"
-Mark Twain
by Taskmaster on Oct 15, 2009 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we have lugo for free
so i don’t see a role for vizquel. and to me “rips” implies some power
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 15, 2009 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the ~20 run fielding advantage that Visquel has over Lugo
Makes up for the lack of rippage.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 15, 2009 1:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
lugo seems like he may end up
Being just replacement value when you offset his D against his O.
It’s really hard to read, given his injuries and a position shift, but I’m doubting that he shows a ton of value long term.except relative to cost.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 15, 2009 2:19 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Well it depends
How bad is his D? He’s basically a league average hitter, and a SS, which means that he’d have to be about -27 runs on defense to be replacement level. If he’s -7 runs, he’s a league average player.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 15, 2009 2:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i thought he was our 2b going forward
In a very small sample size he was -14 at 2b. But he had posted a -30 something at ss previously. I don’t know that I take either number too seriously. But clearly his d is bad-bad: -10 doesn’t seem to be a bad estimate, between his history and the eyeball. I haven’t run the numbers out but that seems like he’d end up a 0-1 win player.
Maybe he heals up his knee over the offseason and his range improves, but I’m not too sanguine about it.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 15, 2009 2:28 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
didn't know
that was a possibility. asssumed skip was the 2b going forward, with lugo off the bench.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 15, 2009 2:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we're talking utility roles, right?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 15, 2009 2:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wasn't skip working on hitting lefties when he was so rudely interrupted
by a freak position change?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 15, 2009 2:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The limited stats of a two decade career?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 15, 2009 5:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Until you're Julio Franco, you're NOTHIN'
You may run like Hayes, but you hit like shit.
by flipthebird on Oct 15, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe i should say hard-to-read stats?
I have trouble figuring out what is an artifact of his knee injury, what’s aging, what’s statistical blips, etc.
Like I said, my gut is he’ll be pretty rough on defense going forward. His recent numbers support that.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 15, 2009 11:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I was talking about Omar Vizquel's platoon split.
Lugo’s range has declined since 2004, while his other defensive abilities appear to have held somewhat constant. Hopefully, his average range at 2B holds up, and he can work on getting rid of the ball quicker.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 16, 2009 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reed Johnson
actually tore up lefties last season (.324/.403/.500). His career stats against lefties looks very impressive as well (.313/.378/.463) He’s a pretty low key outfielder so the price could be right. I’d would sure like to take a flyer on him as the 4th outfielder.
It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard... is what makes it great.
by lukyduk on Oct 15, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
magglio?
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Oct 17, 2009 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thought his option vested?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 18, 2009 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
18 million
"Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work"
-Mark Twain
by Taskmaster on Oct 18, 2009 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes i know
i think it has a lot to do with ludwick. he hit worse last year against lefties and im pretty sure he did that this year. hes just not as valuable as his stats indicate, thats why i think we should trade him
and my bad i forgot about garcia, he would be a good option too. i havent looked much into the closer market, i was just responding to the original post
by cardsforever on Oct 17, 2009 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
call me crazy
i think ludwick is as valuable as jason bay going forward, and that’s BEFORE we consider salary.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 17, 2009 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh well, Bay is pretty mediocre on D compared to Ludwick
but Bay is a much better hitter right now. However, ludwick will make a little under halfway what Bay will make.
"Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work"
-Mark Twain
by Taskmaster on Oct 17, 2009 3:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
mark twain
off the top of my head:
“Always do right. This will gratify some and astonish the others.”
“Laughter without a tinge of philosophy is but a sneeze of humor. Genuine humor is replete with wisdom.”
(may be punctuation/other mistakes)
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 17, 2009 3:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
two question
Why do you think Ludwick’s D’ in right is bad ,and Still why would it be a left handed Right fielder? It wouldn’t make sense for us to sign another lefty who can’t hit left handed pitching.
And now a scene from seinfeld
ELAINE: [mind] Who does this guy think he is?
KEITH: [mind] I'm Keith Hernandez.
by CodyG on Oct 18, 2009 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow, someone thinks Luddy's D in right is bad?
the same guy who committed one error all year…. number three in innings played……
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 18, 2009 1:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Glaus
Does everyone forget glaus? I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pick up the arb offer if we give him one. I can’t think of any teams offhand that would snatch up glaus, I’m sure there is probably a few that would consider. But won’t he be a type B this offseason, idk. A healthy glaus could be some trade bait mid-season if freese or craig can prove anything, big if though right there.
I know DeRosa is someone people are wanting to sign, I’m kinda spit right now. The wrist and age are my concerns, that and the cubs would throw more money at him I think than we are willing to part with since Holliday will be our big FA we go after. I just feel glaus could provide more offense than DeRosa, and might be the safer pick of the two.
by from First to Third on Oct 15, 2009 2:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I haven't forgotten about him
I’d like to sign Glaus if the price is right… because it would be a total gamble.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 15, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
isn't arb
going to give him 9.5M?
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Oct 17, 2009 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no, this is a common misconception
if he was a player under club control, they could only reduce his salary by 25%. However, since he is no longer under club control and has the option of leaving as a free agent, the club can offer him whatever they think is fair.
Of course, he can counter with whatever HE thinks is fair, and then they are stuck going to an arbitration session where an arbitrator chooses which position (one or the other, nothing in between) best represents his value, so they could get stuck with a $9M salary.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Oct 18, 2009 3:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think that's wrong SleepyCA
I think in both cases it is “no lower than 80% of a player’s previous salary.”
by stlfan on Oct 18, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no. it's not wrong.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Oct 18, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
page 72 of the CBA has the fine print about club control.
If you want to look it up. The confusion comes from the fact that the main “arbitration” section does say that you can only reduce his salary x amount, but p72 has the fine print about that rule not applying to guys who have the option of leaving as FA.
There were a couple of articles about this last off-season.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Oct 18, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It still doesn't solve the problem of binding arbitration though.
I don’t think you can offer him arb unless you’re positive that he won’t accept, becasue I don’t think an arbitrator is going to award him any less than 80% of his previous salary, especially considering how good he was in 2008.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OTOH, they paid him $12M or whatever last year
to hang out in arizona and rehab get fat ;)
But yeah, I can’t see it either. Too much risk, not enough reward.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Oct 19, 2009 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thing is
An arbitrator isn’t going to look at that situation, he’s simply going to take into account what Glaus may be worth if he plays and the likelihood that he does play.
I don’t think the fact that we paid him $12M to get fat in the desert last year is going to make much of a difference.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 20, 2009 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've come to the conclusion
based on conversations with others at VEB on this same topic, that offering Glaus arbitration is the wrong thing to do. I think you let him go, then try to sign him to a 1Y$6M contract, after he proves he’s healthy, in case he wants to come back and try to prove himself to get one more 3 year contract from someone after next season.
I think if you offer him arbitration he immediately accepts and we’re on the hook for $10M for him next year, when he hasn’t shown that he’s fully healthy anyway
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 15, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes, no arb
but try to work out something “mutually beneficial”
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 15, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
IDK offering him Arby even
Arbitration for Glaus is upwards of $9M.
by stlfan on Oct 17, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
but if we don’t and someone signs him we lose those picks. With all that we gave up this year we need anything draft wise we can possibly get lucky with . I would gauge his interest if he is interested, hopefully he would be up to take a smaller base with more incentives. Even at 9 mil (didn’t know how much his arb figure would be) I would think that could be a bargain if he can produce anything better than what was in that spot this year.
by from First to Third on Oct 17, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think so.
$9M is a lot of money. It may not be elite money anymore, but it is WAAAAY too much money for the number of question marks regarding his hitting. This was his second shoulder surgery, and this time he didn’t have the advantage of steroids or HGH to recover. You have to assume that there is at least the same chance that he recovers as poorly as Rolen did. As such, you would be looking at too little production for a team that is looking at the potential of tying up 40% of its payroll in two players. They simply can’t take that kind of gamble, and I would think that $9M for Glaus is going to be the best he will find on the market (by a fair amount).
That arbitration figure would scare the hell out of me, and I think I would pass even considering the fact that we would lose the picks.
by etp_stl on Oct 17, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought Glaus was an A
at least the last rankings I looked at still had him as an A. I say there is no way he is signed by another team if we offer him arb. I think it is a no brainer that we don’t offer it. You are looking at another Mulder type situation, except with the possibility of spending close to 20M for what possibly could be two years of not much production at all. This could actually make the Mulder signing look good!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Oct 17, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no, he's a type B.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Oct 17, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well that has changed since the beginning of August
or MLB trade rumors had failed m again, one of the two. Anyway, that helps in the decision making.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Oct 17, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, the ranking changed in september
So did Derosa’s. Glaus changed because he played poorly in 2009; derosa because of an error in the calculations.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Oct 17, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the keys to '10, to me, begin with Smoltz and Holliday
and indirectly then, Pineiro/Lohse and Albert.
My # 1 hope for next year is that Smoltz not only signs on but agrees to be a late-innings relief pitcher, perhaps a co-closer with Franklin. I think his days as a starter are over because he gets figured out after the first time through the order; he’s also not durable enough to be a 3 or 4 starter and would be wasted as a 5th, to say also his blocking the development of a Boggs, Garcia, etc. With Smoltz on board as part of the relief corp I feel better about that parameter.
It’s definitely mixed with Holliday: he gives you a lot on offense; power, good avg, and ‘protection’ for Pu, BUT, I haven’t liked his defense since day !, long before the line drive in the nuts fiasco. And the biggest negative, he is certain to cost too much in salary. My point tho’ is THIS decision will be made by Pujols. Does Albert like him, or no; does Albert want him in the line-up hitting behind him for the enxt three or four years, or no?. It’s not only out of OUR hands, people, it’s out of Mo’s hands: Pujols will make the call as to whether Holliday is signed or not.
My only strong negative wish, for ’10, is that I never see AnKiel in a Cardinal uni again; with honorable mention to Joe Thurston. Not bad compared to last winter, when I had FOUR: (Izturis, Izzy, F. Lopez, Kennedy). I enjoyed a clean sweep last winter; this time around I only have 1 and 1/2 to worry about.
by the Tewk on Oct 18, 2009 12:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I see no chance that Smoltz
comes back as a reliever:
- He signed with Boston last year explicitly because he wanted to start.
- He came to St. Louis because we were giving him the opportunity to start.
- He signed an incentive laden deal to make sure that whatever team he was with would essentially be FORCED to let him start.
He’s much more valuable as a starter and was pretty good as a starter in his short time here. He might be a little worse than league average next season, but he’s a #4 starter and that’s acceptable for those type of pitchers. His upside is that of a #3, and if you can get him on a cheap contract he’s worth it.
I think Sanchez could help shore up the back end of the bullpen if he’s given a shot to do so.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 19, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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