In 2007, Joey Bombs lit Springfield (and the internets) afire by posting a .994 OPS at Springfield under the tutelage of hitting coach Derrick May*.  Mather hit over .300, slugged over .600 and blasted 18 small white orbs into the stands of Hammons Field.  With Colby Rasmus in center,** eyes were squarely on the Springfield club and Mather took advantage.  He displayed power accordant with his 6'4" 200lbs frame and a level of athleticism that made the big man look smooth (though not quite Rasmussian smooth) in the outfield.  After being promoted to Memphis midway through the season, the bat receded towards career averages with a .771 OPS.

2008 would witness the return of Mather's first half prowess from the previous season.  With a 1.041 OPS he showed a commensurate level of power and even improved his plate discipline boasting a .411 OBP with 32 walks against 36 strikeouts.  At age 26, it was a fortuitous development for Mather who had ebbed toward obscurity due to lack of development.  Mather would receive his call to the bigs in 2008 and post a respectable .780 OPS playing a variety of positions.

A lost season would follow in 2009, as Mather failed to lay claim to the 3rd base job that the Cardinals initially foisted upon him in Spring Training.  Plagued by various maladies (back, wrist) and multiple surgeries, Mather would end the year with a meager 226 PAs across multiple minor league levels.  The lion's share of which, 150 in Memphis, were largely forgettable (.505 OPS).  With his hitting abilities sapped by the wrist injury, the outlook seems hazy at best.

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Chris Duncan was hardly an unknown prior to the 2006 season.  With a father who served as the Cardinals long time pitching coach and confidante extraordinaire to the enigmatic Tony La Russa, and a brother, Shelley Duncan, who was a borderline major leaguer in the Yankees system, Chris was, if anything a known***.  The problem was that he was known as a poor defensive first baseman whose hitting skills had resulted in a consistent sub-.800 OPS.

Events (and people?!?!? -- kidding) would conspire to bring Chris, who had shown some signs of life with a .827 OPS at Memphis in 2005, to the majors.  His efforts in 2006 were, in no small part, responsible for the Cardinals run into an through the post season to a World Series title.  His defensive shortcomings in left field, while legendary, were forgivable when the trophy-humping slugger blasted a mammoth 22 home runs in 314 PAs that season.

A neck injury would plague Chris in 2007 and beyond.  His numbers dwindled with the Cardinals from their initial high in 2006 of .952 OPS to a craterous .687 OPS in 2009.  When traded to Boston for Julio Lugo, the Cardinals tacitly acknowledged that Chris was no longer the player he was in 2006 regardless of the reasons.  A briefly promising career that began with calls to make him the everyday left fielder, ended with jeers and derision towards the player and management.

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This brings us to the present.  The Cardinals freshly eliminated from the playoffs, contemplate their future and the future of their big name, big bat mid season acquisition, Matt Holliday.  With his impending free agency and the mountainous hordes of cash he is liable to command, some fans seem willing to let him walk.  Without debating the merits of re-signing him, I remain perplexed by one proposed solution: Joe Mather. 

We've seen Mather post close to league average offensive stats in his short major league stint.  He's shown himself to be a capable fielder patrolling the outfield corner positions and an acceptable fill-in for center.  We've even seen the tremendous power potential with a .233 ISO in the bigs.  But we saw all that with Chris Duncan too. 

Certainly there are differences, and you'd be right to argue that they disrupt the analogy, but Joe Mather's track record is about as proven as Duncan's was.  A few half seasons of excellent production overshadowing adequate but uninspiring prior seasons.  Nagging injuries followed by multiple surgeries are labels that Chris Duncan was unable to shed as a Cardinal and ones that threaten to adhere to Joe Mather as well.  Mather is certainly a better athlete and his surgery was far more routine than the radical neck surgery Duncan underwent. However, Mather has not proven to be a durable commodity nor one of whom we have data for a precise major league projection. 

The Cardinals are likely to give Mather several chances to prove his worth next season either at 3rd or in the outfield of Roger Dean Stadium.  They'd be remiss not to.  But, they are also certainly going to do so with the risk of his downside in mind, something that seems to have eluded some on the internet who carelessly fling his name out as a firm solution.  A bit of trepidation is advised -- after all, as Papa Duncan so rationally**** reminded us this season, injuries can have a deleterious effect on player performance.

* FWIW, May has been creditted with several hitter's surging numbers in recent years at Springfield.

**The motley crew in left consisted of Sean Danielson, Mark Shorey and Cody Haerther.

***I'm sure there's a comma splice in there somewhere and I'm equally sure I don't know where.

**** Well, he did remind us anyway.