Albert Pujols freakout #1
by DanUpBaby on Oct 13, 2009 6:00 AM EDT
647 comments
For Cardinals fans it is a long season, as the aphorism goes, but it is also a long offseason. Enter article one seeking to place Albert Pujols in greener pastures through the awesome journalistic power of stacked hypothetical situations, courtesy Ken Rosenthal, who would be better served continuing to break news if this is his idea of making sense of it:
The most rational course for the Cardinals would be to attribute their shocking elimination to the randomness of a best-of-five series, and try again next season.
If only it were that simple.
The Cardinals are at a crossroads. They cannot bring back the same club and count on better postseason luck in 2010. Too much in their world is fluid.
Left fielder Matt Holliday, third baseman Mark DeRosa and right-hander Joel Pineiro are among their potential free agents.
What he describes is not sole provence of this Cardinals team—it is the dilemma of, if I had to guess, half of the teams that makes the playoffs in any given year. Teams that succeed are filled with uncertain parts, players having career years and then either regressing or asking for contracts commensurate with their new and uncertain talents. Good teams are rarely both good and solid, and even those squads have trouble remaining on top of their games.
Rosenthal's main problem is his appeal to sheer numbers in constructing his argument. Three free agents? Why, that's a lot! In fact Mark DeRosa's subpar half-season with the Cardinals brought their composite third baseman's year-to-date numbers all the way to .229/.292/.369, with a defensive non-value of negative five runs. The Cardinals are losing, to free agency, a set of third basemen who managed to nearly approximate replacement level. That one of them is a name player who should have done better than he did is irrelevant to the team in 2010, especially as it relates to the one in 2009.
Do the Cardinals have an internal option to fill Mark DeRosa's spot when he departs? They do categorically—the idea of replacement level, which may as well have been called the Joe Thurston Line, demands it. Even without taking into account the presence of one David Freese, cheap, superior on offense and defense, unlikely to get into a second consecutive off-season car accident, Mark DeRosa's departure is no skin off the Cardinals' proverbial nose. It would be nice if it was, considering the price they paid, but it isn't.
Teams that struggle in the course of attributing their elimination to randomness and trying again aren't the ones who have big holes to fill in the offseason—they're the ones whose value was divvied up a mile wide and an inch deep, the easier for it to slip just-perceptibly as no one position cries out for an upgrade. The Cardinals stand to gain a win or two by not playing last year's version of Mark DeRosa; that they can do it without signing next year's version of Mark DeRosa is a bonus.
Joel Pineiro and Matt Holliday are more valid concerns; Pineiro was lightning in a bottle, and the Cardinals would be ill-served to try to recreate things by resigning the bottle. But the flukishness of his performance doesn't change the value of it, and the Cardinals find themselves in the welcome but still difficult position of replacing 200 great innings they didn't know they had.
Whatever you think of Jaime Garcia, this probably can't be replaced from within; to approximate Pineiro's value the Cardinals will have to hope they can trade 200 innings of Joel Pineiro and 200 innings of Kyle Lohse and Todd Wellemeyer for 400 innings that are coherently average. It's possible, but it'll be tough; the rotation is one place where the Cardinals will be hard-pressed to improve on 2009.
Matt Holliday is another case of the seasonal whole being less than the last part the Cardinals plugged in; unlike DeRosa he was well above replacement level once he arrived—2.8 wins, above average for an entire season, according to Fangraphs—but he was still relegating two replacement level players to the bench and Pawtucket, respectively.
Rosenthal is right in suggesting that the team has an important offseason ahead, but he's caught up in his own idea of its severity and not quite pegging the real reason it will be so difficult to get the same value out of the same players in 2010. The important thing isn't just the players who won't be around next year—it's that the Cardinals got 400 Cy Young caliber innings out of one pitcher whose injury problems are legendary and another who had never pitched that well before in addition to the ones that will be leaving with the ghost of Christy Mathewson. This is not a team in crisis; it's a team that missed a good opportunity but has the potential, with the emergence of its remaining younger players, for more of them.
That overreaction leads to, and invalidates, the most terrifying part of his article:
Even if both sides are well-intentioned, the odds of the Cardinals keeping Pujols beyond 2011 probably are not good.
Let's say Pujols views Alex Rodriguez's 10-year, $275 million contract as his benchmark, even though it was a free-agent deal signed in a better economy.
Let's say the Cardinals view an eight-year, $160 million deal as more realistic, even though Pujols would start his next deal at the same age that Rodriguez did, 32.
If you were Pujols, how much of a discount would you give?
If you were the Cardinals, would you really be so loath to offer Pujols a contract that just barely tops the one the Cubs are currently paying Alfonso Soriano? If they are, to be honest, they don't deserve Pujols; but all the mechanics to which Rosenthal is gesturing start with the Cardinals being in dire straits from here on out. They are not.
Finally, on an unrelated note, a sportswriter Pet Peeve:
Right-hander Chris Carpenter looked like he had a tired arm in Game 1, according to one rival GM.
I don't doubt the rival GM's honesty or his motives, but this is not Wikipedia; you're allowed to do some original research as a sportswriter. The game was on TV; the pitchf/x numbers are widely available. Did it look to you like he had a tired arm, Ken Rosenthal? You can tell us.
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good, to the point analysis
DeRosa is easily replaced in terms of what he gave the Cards in ‘09. I also suspect the Cubs will now overpay for him.
I, for one, would let Holliday go. Everything indicates he’s looking to break the bank, and I think the Cards would be better served spending the money on an outfielder or 3B with a high OBP to hit #2 and end that revolving door in the lineup. Look at the players Holliday was traded for this year (Wallace, C. Gonzalez, etc.). Is he worth all that and 25 mil a year?
The P-D today uses the figure of 43 mil for both Holliday and Pujols (18 + 25?). I don’t think that will get it done, and you have 38 other roster spots to pay. Pay Albert (does 8 years for 200 mil get it done?) and use the rest on other needs, e.g. the bullpen and a better bench.
by vinniefromjersey on Oct 13, 2009 7:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sacriligious comment
if it costs more than 8 years, $200m to keep Pujols, I’m not sure we shouldn’t just be resigned to him leaving in 2011. Do we REALLY think he’s going to be worth $25m at age 40? 8/160 I’d probably be happy to do. I could also go for fewer years at a higher $ cost (6/150 maybe?).
In any case, Pujols will be back, I can’t see there’s any way they’ll let him leave, and I think any realistic contract is probably going to be pretty much worthwhile. I also don’t necessarily think he’s going to go in with a mercenary attitude to squeeze every last penny out of the club. I think when all’s said and done we’ll be paying him over $20m/yr and he’ll probably be here until he retires (or is damn close to it).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 7:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you're going to get hung up on Pujol's age 40 season
and how he’ll be over-paid, then I guess you probably should just lobby for him to walk. Considering how much he’s worth right now and will be for the next 4 or 5 years I think his age 40 season is a moot point.
Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
by Tackle Box on Oct 13, 2009 8:29 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
In production, quite likely not. But ...
in terms of ability to put fans in the seats — and fans in the seats go very far toward the financial ability to make moves to keep the team competitive — all you need to do is look back to the final years of Musial, Gibson, etc., to see the benefit of keeping him. “Franchise players” only come along once every couple of generations, and their value to the franchise remains huge even when their skills start to atrophy.
by StanTheManFan on Oct 13, 2009 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Economic impact of Albert
agree with this view that the team won’t look just at on field production to determine Albert’s value to the franchise. Merchandise, ticket sales, concessions and general interest in the Cards will be higher with Albert on the team than without Albert.
That being said, I would favor a front loaded contract so his age 40 season is 60-75% of his peak performance salary (1st year of extension). I doubt this will happen though. And fix the elbow first.
by ubeddie on Oct 13, 2009 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's been proven here (last offseason maybe?)
that backloaded contracts are much more favorable to the team than they are to the player.
Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
by Tackle Box on Oct 13, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's it.
even when it’s been explained to me multiple times, i still can’t remember it.
Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
by Tackle Box on Oct 13, 2009 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Think about it this way:
A dollar today in my hand is worth more than a dollar in my hand a year from now.
Which would you rather have: $250 check in your wallet now, or a $250 check that you can cash in Oct. 2010? Obviously, the money now is preferable. What if the Oct 10 check was made out for $275? Or $300? At some point, you would rather have the check you can cash a year from now, but the face value of that check has to be higher to make up for payment being a year in the future.
Applied to contracts, this means that all contracts are not created equal, even if total years and total pay is the same. In the extremes, it is most beneficial for the team to pay a lump sum on the last day of the contract; it is best for the player to be paid completely up front.
So by back-loading contracts, the team has more capital available in the present to play with/invest.
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 14, 2009 8:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another extension of this idea:
Performance vs. Contract. We typically see arguments to the effect that “if Player X produces Y WAR over his contract, he will justify his contract of $Z.” While this may be generically true (and certainly is the easiest way to think about it) the timing of his payments and performance do matter.
For instance, if we are thinking about signing Player A who has projected WARs of 2.0, 3.0, and 5.0 for the next three seasons, he is not nearly as valuable as a player who has projected WARs of 5.0, 3.0, and 2.0. WAR, like money, is more valuable today than it is in the future (which is why it sometimes make sense to trade prospects for performance now).
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 14, 2009 8:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does this concept take inflation into account, or is it still true if you ignore inflation?
I mean, is the value of having x amount of money now higher than x amount later no matter what? If there was no inflation, would money now still be more valuable? I’m assuming that the answer is yes but I’ve never really been sure.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 14, 2009 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It is still true if you ignore inflation
Because I could invest a dollar today (even risk-free – like 1-year US Gov’t t-bills) and get some non-zero return.
Now, depending on risk profiles, required rates of return are very different across people and organizations. But assuming any period of time that is non-deflationary, a discount rate must be applied to any future payment to get its true present value.
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 14, 2009 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I read on Cots or somewhere else
that Pujols original contract has deferred money and was discounted so the “final” amount was really around 90 million to the club. I don’t know what these used as the hurdle rate and too lazy to figure it out but even if this is close to correct you can see how backloading a contract is almost always better for the club.
I wonder why agents don’t point this out to their guys. I remember Edmonds the other night when he was interviewed on TV (Mickey Mouse!) how he said the Cards owed him for the next 10 years or so. Wait till inflation kicks in Jimmy.
by Tom_Lawless_Bat_Flip on Oct 14, 2009 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It just becomes even more lopsided with inflation included,
because an eye-popping figure like 25M per season this year could be the going rate for star players in less than ten seasons.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 14, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
inflation calculator site
for those who want to look at historical data, www.inflationdata.com has information and a calculator for determining inflation between two dates. Looking back 5 years, the cumulative inflation rate as of Aug 09 is 13.66% or 2.73% per year.
by ubeddie on Oct 14, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
net present value of two scenarios are equal
was a premise that I failed to outline in the suggested front loading of contracts. I fully agree if the years and total contract value are equal, back loading can only help the team (unless their investment strategy really sucks, like the Mets and Madoff).
Most of the premier free agents sign contracts where the first few years are their prime production years. If the two sides negotiate a 6 yr contract with a npv of $100 mm, wouldn’t it make more sense to structure it with more cash in earlier years to alleviate the drag on overall payroll as the player ages and becomes less productive?
by ubeddie on Oct 14, 2009 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In terms of
“Annual Value per Dollar”, yes, this makes sense. In terms of long term payroll and investment strategy, i.e. the “business of baseball”, it doesn’t, for the NPV assertions constructed above.
Front loading would make the player easier to move in the latter years of his contract as well, but the issue here is that most of these giant deals come with no-trade protection, or at least limited no-trade protection anyway.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 14, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I almost made it through a day
without being reminded of Lohse’s full no trade.
by Tom_Lawless_Bat_Flip on Oct 14, 2009 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wanna know what is funny
APu only has a limited no trade
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Oct 14, 2009 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
HOLY FUCKING SHIT
®
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 14, 2009 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this argument isn't supported by the evidence
“franchise players” do not put butts in the seats. Winning puts butts in the seats. People are not going to show up at the ballpark and turn on FSNMW to watch a 90 loss team just b/c Albert Pujols was once the greatest player in the game. If the team can remain competitive around him, paying him a fortune makes sense. If it can’t, it just doesn’t.
by chuckb on Oct 13, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this
no one attended rams games last year to cheer on future hall of fame left tackle and former Pro Bowler WR.
by FunkeeC on Oct 13, 2009 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Former pro-bowler WR
would be like thinking people come to see Ludwick. And nobody cares about a left tackle, HOF worthy or not.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 13, 2009 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the team can remain competitive around him, paying him a fortune makes sense. If it can’t, it just doesn’t.
Having a franchise level player in the mix goes a long way to making the team more competitive though. I don’t think that the Cardinals are ever going to become the Pirates, for example. I do believe that they are always going to be competitive within the NL Central and won’t be eliminated by the All-Star break too many times.
The Rams comparison is a poor one. The Rams have absolutely no history in the town of St. Louis, and St. Louis has always been a baseball town, which is why the original Cardinals left the city 25 years ago.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that & they were the single worst team in the no fun league
the more things change, the more they stay the same
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 13, 2009 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True ...
the Rams don’t have an history in St. Louis, but the Big Red left town because the owner had no committment to winning. He wanted to demand a 75,000 seat stadium without any evidence that he wanted to put a winning team on the field. He maintained that same business plan in Arizona, and only now that his son has taken over have the Cardinals started to show signs of NFL respectability.
I get a little aggravated at the constant attitude that St. Louis won’t support professional football. It would be terrific to see how St. Louis would support an organization that didn’t look like a family on the Jerry Springer show.
by etp_stl on Oct 13, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The problem with this logic
is that they had trouble selling out games back when “The Greatest Show on Turf” was in town. The years they went to the Super Bowl they didn’t have consecutive sellouts. I went to the Buffalo – St. Louis game last year with a Bills fan and both of us were extremely disappointed in the lack of fan support for the Rams during that game, both in attendance and attitude at the stadium itself. I’m a Vikings fan, and I’ve yet to be at a Vikings game (even pre-season in the Mike Tice era) where the Metrodome wasn’t rocking, and they can’t get a stadium built either.
I think the ownership is partly to blame, but Carolina fans show up to watch Jake Delhomme play quarterback poorly, Bears fans show up even though they haven’t had a All-Pro QB since Jim McMahon. The Rams had back-to-back Super Bowl teams and couldn’t draw back-to-back sellouts in either of those years. That’s a fanbase problem, not an ownership problem.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 14, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't confuse "butts in seats" with "tickets sold".
Most of the seats in the Dome are sold year in and year out (notice they’ve yet to go the Raiders or Jaguars route of covering sections of seats to reduce the number of seats they have to sell). The reason they’ve had a hard time with getting Rams fans butts in the seats is because of the product on the field and the mess that was the front office.
The fans are there, they just haven’t had a good reason (in a shitty economy, espeically now) to justify going to the games as opposed to selling their seats to rival fans or simply eating the ticket and saving the money they’d spend on parking, gas, food, beer, etc.
It won’t take much for the fans to come back into the Dome. Last year, when the team beat Washington, they immediately sold out their next home game when they hadn’t done so for a while.
The fans are there and most of the tickets are in hand, they just need a little proof things are improving to go spend the extra cash in the building.
Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
by Tackle Box on Oct 14, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I talking specifically about
tickets sold. In 1999 and 2000, they didn’t have back to back sellouts in either of those years, and the stadium is not that big. The mark of a devoted fan base is a fan base that comes to games regardless of how good the team is — the Rams don’t have the kind of fan base. The Steelers, Packers, Bears, Giants, Vikings, etc. all have fan bases like that. It helps that those teams have been fairly successful over time too, but part of the reason they are successful is that they have a fan base that follows the team good or bad.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 14, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Those teams you cite have amazing histories in their cities.
Shit, the Bears have been in Chicago since 1921, the Packers since 1919 (and are owned by the city), the Steelers since 1933, the Giants since 1925, and the Vikings are the young one being in the Twin Cities since 1961 (btw, the Vikings have been rumored to be looking to move from Minneapolis for more than a few years).
The Rams? Since 1995.
This is like comparing apples to oranges.
But, I will say that winning the SuperBowl actually hurt the Rams develop fan loyalty. Well, the way their history in St. Louis has unfolded has hurt them.
When they came to St. Louis, they had a ton of fan support because the team was new. Unfortunately, they sucked for about 5 years (never making the playoffs) and fan support started to dwindle. Then, BOOM!, they win the SuperBowl which gets everyone in Eastern Missouri and Southern Illinois (as well as parts of Arkansas and other states) to jump on board. This lasted about 3 or 4 years until disaster after disaster started happening which drove away the "bandwagoners from the SuperBowl years (3 year span).
They’ve never had any sustained success to build upon and when they did, it was over the top. They went from the worst team in the 90s to the best team for the first 3 years of the 2000s back to the worst team with a soap opera developing in the front office that would make the writers of general hospital envious.
What happened in those 3 years of success (major success) actually spoiled a lot of the fans who weren’t necessarily true die hard fans. You often hear athletes, who go to the playoffs in their first 2 or 3 years of being professionals, “It never occurred to me it was even a possibility we wouldn’t make the playoffs”.
It’s the same way with a lot of the fans. So many, jumped on board late in ‘99 and rode the wave for 3 years thinking the Rams would be dominant for ever. Well, it didn’t happen. The team was a house of cards and when it came crashing down, it all came down.
Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
by Tackle Box on Oct 14, 2009 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok then
The team they played in the 1999 Super Bowl has been in Tennessee about as long as the Rams have been in St. Louis, yet that team consistently sells out games.
Carolina went from expansion franchise to playoff contender about as fast as St. Louis did, then spent some years in purgatory before becoming relevant again — they also consistently sell out games.
We’re talking about 8 games a year, not 81 for baseball, not 41 for hockey. Eight. EIGHT GAMES A YEAR. You should get at least four sellouts a season in the NFL. If your fanbase gives a rat shit about your team you should be able to get at LEAST that, yet the Rams couldn’t do it when they were one of the best teams in the league.
St. Louis didn’t support the football Cardinals franchise, and they haven’t supported the Rams franchise near as well as they could. Do I think that Checkett’s could help? Yes, I do, because the current front office has run them into the ground. Replace the front office people, keep Spagnuolo as head coach, and they might have a shot at turning this thing around.
I still think that the best thing that could happen is for some billionaire to build his own stadium in southern California and move the Rams there.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 15, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Poor comparison.
First, you can’t compare the Vikings fan base to the Rams fan base. The Rams simply haven’t been in St. Louis long enough for that kind of discussion compared to the Vikings in Minneapolis.
Second, the Rams have the uneviable task of having to attone not only for their own organizational sins, but also the sins of the previous team that broke our hearts.
This town tried to connect with the Big Red in a time when that kind of loyalty could be generated, but the owner intentionally broke our collective hearts repeatedly by intentionally not fielding a worthwhile product. Now, despite the much bally-hooed popularity of the NFL, it is virtually impossible to develop that kind of loyalty from a fan base because the teams price the average fan from experiencing the games in person. The game is marketed to television moguls and corporate customer entertainment.
Despite all of that, I maintain loyalty to both the Rams and Chiefs with the same fervor that I do for the Blues and Cardinals; and I still keep a heartbroken longing to see the team that left us do well. I don’t get to too many games for any of the teams because all professional sports ticket prices have become disproportionate to the value difference between watching it on television and seeing it in person. However, I still want to see all of them be extremely successful, and I follow them exhaustively.
The only issue that has caused me to wane in interest wrt the Rams, was the voice mail that Samir Sullemain left on Miklasz’s phone threatening throat slashing. The fact that the Rams didn’t fire him on the spot was unbelievable and disheartening. They still haven’t, and I hold out hope that the new ownership group will clean house of this trash.
by etp_stl on Oct 15, 2009 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mark McGwire would like to have a word with you.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 13, 2009 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ryne Sandberg, Andre Dawson, and Sammy Sosa would as well
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cal Ripken example
The O’s enjoyed favorable attendance in Cal’s last few years (3.4 million-3.1 million 1999-2001) while finishing under .500 and in fourth place in the AL East. The year he retired, attendance at Camden Yards dropped 13% and remained roughly at that level for the next four years.
Was Cal the only reason? No, of course not, but he did contribute to the draw.
by ubeddie on Oct 13, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But
what would the O’s have drawn had they been free of Ripken’s contract and reinvested that salary into the players needed to contend for the postseason? I think that’s the real comparison here, right?
by siddfynch on Oct 14, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
did they not have that money to spend the year after he retired?
Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
by Tackle Box on Oct 14, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The O's have tried
many free agents since Cal retired and have not been very successful in either pursuing the right ones or signing any who can turn the team around. Tejeda was the most successful signing for the 2004 season and attendance/interest increased with a 3rd place finish (and only 6 games under .500) but was still 15% below the level it was when Cal was playing the team was losing.
by ubeddie on Oct 14, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Baltimore's problem
is that they don’t have a defined organizational strategy like Tampa does, and that’s what you have to have in order to compete in the AL East. If Baltimore had Tampa’s strategy with it’s payroll, revenue, and fanbase, it would be a lot more successful franchise — but don’t expect Peter Angelos to change anything soon, he’s playing with house money at this point.
It appears that they may be moving towards a more farm based, draft-and-develop strategy in the last couple of years, but then they might blow it all up and go shopping this year or next year. I think they could be on the cusp of developing some really good talent from their farm system (Reimold, Wieters, etc.) and from smart trades the past couple of years (the Tejada deal, the Bedard deal)
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 14, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Worth $25M at age 40?
Of course not. There’s maybe only two or three position players in the history of the game who were worth that much in their age 40 seasons. Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron (inflation adjusted, obviously), and someone that I’m surely missing because of the lack of time needed to research it.
For instance, you would have to be worth around 6.5 WAR to be worth $25M on the free agent market, and last year there were two players over the age of 36 to hit that mark: Chipper Jones (7.6) and Manny Ramirez (6.7). Neither of those guys repeated that performance this year, Jones due to injury, and Manny due to his suspension, which also might explain his performance last year (illegal substance induced). If we’re getting hung up on his age 40 season, we should just let him walk.
Now, say we pay him 8Y$200M, and let’s also assume that he will be worth at least 7.7 WAR in the first 5 years of that deal (that’s his lowest WAR total in the past 6 seasons, so he’s probably going to be worth more than that). So after the first 5 seasons, he’ll be worth around $173M in market value ($4.5M * 7.7WAR * 5YEARS). He basically only has to be worth $25M over the last three seasons of the contract to make it a fair deal for the club. I’d venture to say he’ll be worth that much, and probably more. The team will have the contract insured in case he gets injured, so that’s really not going to play into how much his actual value will be worth over that time period should he go down with injury.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The factor is that we don't know the value of a win in dollars when Pujols is 40 years old
It is around $4M now it could be $6M than
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 13, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And probably will be around that high.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or it might be less
as more and more teams adopt the draft and develop strategy that we’ve seen in recent years, and only the prime free agents (the top half of the Type A bracket) get big $ deals while the lesser FA have to accept lower than average amounts for lesser years. We simply don’t know.
FWIW, even if the price of 1 WAR on the FA market jumps to 6M by 2020, it’s even more likely that he’d be worth a $200M contract over an 8 year span. In the past 8 seasons he’s been worth just over 63 WAR, which would equate to $283.5M worth of value over that same time period. Obviously, we’d like to do better than break even on the contract, but if the price of FA WAR goes up, that only makes it easier for Pujols to hit that in the last few years of his contract — he’d only have to be worth 4.5 WAR his last season to be worth $25M at $6M per WAR, vs. 5.5 WAR to be worth the same at $4.5 per WAR.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Breaking even
If we can break even on Pujols’ contract, and we get to witness his 3,000th hit, 700th HR, multiple MVPs, and the farewell tour in his final year, I would consider it one of the best signings in our history. As a fan, of course.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I totally agree with you
but in terms of the business side, we don’t want to be looking to simply “break even” on every contract that we ink with players. Only a handful of teams can afford to pay market rates of WAR to build winning ballclubs, the rest of the clubs have to either be great negotiators to get more value per dollar of free agents, or great developers of young talent coupled with a few break even free agent contracts. Doing both of those things well would lead to sustained success for a very long period of time. Unfortunately, doing both of those things well also probably demands that no player is ever given the “franchise” treatment, because aging free agents on long term contracts tend to be worth a lot less than the $ value of their deal at the end of the contract. I don’t think that will be the case with Albert, however.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As a general rule, I absolutely agree.
Obviously, this is a special case, a contract that has so much involved in it than the mere weighings of value and cost. We’re talking about our generation’s Musial and a franchise that makes a point of celebrating its legends. Because of this, Cardinal Nation expects that its all-time greats will be retained and celebrated. To let Pujols walk would run contrary to the culture of Cardinal fans and it would be very detrimental to the organization.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
honestly as a fan
i really do want to win it all every year, but im a sucker for players that show loyalty to the team and organization. as much as i hated how bad edmonds was playing i wish he wouldve retired a Card, there are few players that just need to stay with one club because they lose their identity to me once they leave, and the fairwell tours are so much better in st louis to me then anywhere else case in point was Ozzie Smith, just wasnt nearly the player when he retired but he retired a cardinal
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
by DESTROYER on Oct 13, 2009 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I take issue with your last point...
ase in point was Ozzie Smith, just wasnt nearly the player when he retired but he retired a cardinal
Ozzie got forced out by TLR and the new front office, who wanted to move in a different direction. Had he been able to catch on with someone else, a la Edmonds, I’m pretty sure that he would have done that. It was a very similar situation to the Favre/Packers drama, with the exception that Ozzie wanted to play and got himself in great shape, only to find out that he wasn’t wanted. This really caused a rift between he and LaRussa, which also led to Tony kicking him out of the clubhouse later on, saying he was a “distraction”.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
did not know that either
damn me being nieve as a child, and totally on the F TLR bandwagon now
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
by DESTROYER on Oct 13, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW
You can also argue that Ozzie’s last year of his career was as good as it was because TLR spotted him and put him in situations where he was more likely to succeed.
At age 41, Ozzie was coming off of an injury-riddled 199/282/244 season and hadn’t played 150 or games in a season for the past four seasons.
Strangely, he had developed an odd reverse platoon split that left him almost helpless against lefties. To his credit, TLR must have noticed that, because only 30 of the Wizard’s 261 PAs that year were against port-siders.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 13, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do switch hitters have "platoon splits" in the traditional sense?
I know he started out as a righthanded hitter, so it would seem odd to me that he would struggle so against lefties.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
when you look at the rest of his career
the late career splits seems to be pretty odd.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good catch
I knew as soon as I posted that was incorrectly put. And FWIW, the apparent inability to hit lefties was a small sample size, but one that seemed persistent, at least for the last two seasons.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 13, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Easier
I suppose it is easier for an aging ballplayer to slap the ball to the opposite field than to try to hit the ball from the righthanded side of the plate.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not going to argue about his departure
he really wasn’t a good baseball player anymore, but he didn’t leave under his own auspices either. I don’t fault the organization for wanting to move in a different direction, it was just the way it was handled.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Point well taken. . .
i just don’t know that there can be any true winners and losers in a clash of egos as epic as TLR vs. the Wizard.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 13, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rosenthal is ridiculous
I can’t believe any sports writer worth their salt actually believes the Cardinals would be dumb enough to not resign Pujols. There would be a riot in St. Louis.
by Mulliganstew on Oct 13, 2009 7:10 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
That is the best photo I have ever seen.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 7:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
A similarly cool shot
The pitcher in the background is Lilly, but ignore that for a sec. That’s a really cool picture.
by mojowo11 on Oct 13, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have one @ home
that’s Scotty Ro in Spring training. He fouled one off in the cage and the ball bee-lined for the camera. One of my favorite baseball photos. I will post it this evening.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 13, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
for one am not worried about Pujols
I really think that Albert could be signed to a 8y 240m deal. with differed money. I think he will go for it. Pay him say 20-25 mill a year and differ the rest.
DeRosa. I would resign him at a reduced price. I know wrist injuries are hard for a hitter to come back from, but I like him on the bench.
Glaus. I would bet that he is let go, but I would consider a one year insentive deal.
Holliday. Inspite is “Buckner” I want him back.
Pineirio. Will get a big payday somewhere else. So it was nice but SEE YA!
Smoltz.. Why not a one year deal.
Smoltz.. Why not a one year deal.So it looks like this:
Smoltz.. Why not a one year deal.So it looks like this:Holliday
Ramus
Ludwick
Craig
DeRosa*
Smoltz.. Why not a one year deal.So it looks like this:Holliday
Ramus
Ludwick
Craig
DeRosa*Glaus*
Ryan
Schumaker
Pujols
Lugo
Fresse
Smoltz.. Why not a one year deal.So it looks like this:Holliday
Ramus
Ludwick
Craig
DeRosa*Glaus*
Ryan
Schumaker
Pujols
Lugo
FresseCarpenter
Wainright
Lohse
Smoltz
Garcia
Smoltz.. Why not a one year deal.So it looks like this:Holliday
Ramus
Ludwick
Craig
DeRosa*Glaus*
Ryan
Schumaker
Pujols
Lugo
FresseCarpenter
Wainright
Lohse
Smoltz
GarciaThat is not a bad team. I think it repeats. I didn’t fill out the pen, but I would expect to be the same. There will be no money for a closer.
Smoltz.. Why not a one year deal.So it looks like this:Holliday
Ramus
Ludwick
Craig
DeRosa*Glaus*
Ryan
Schumaker
Pujols
Lugo
FresseCarpenter
Wainright
Lohse
Smoltz
GarciaThat is not a bad team. I think it repeats. I didn’t fill out the pen, but I would expect to be the same. There will be no money for a closer.* If Glaus and/or DeRosa do not return. Then Freese plays third. Tyler Green makes the team. Schumaker can go back to the outfield. Lugo plays second. Craig and can player third as well, and Mather may get another shot. There is alot to look forward to.
by nybirdfan on Oct 13, 2009 7:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
8 yrs/240m
bletch. That would be an awful contract, an albatross, even for Albert f’in Pujols.
He needs to be putting up something like 7 WAR/yr CONSISTENTLY (bearing in mind he’ll probably miss a chunk of a season at some point for elbow surgery, and there’s an above-zero chance that that surgery might go wrong and leave him a much lesser player) until he is FORTY YEARS OLD for that contract to just about break even. Sure, he’s an 8-win player now, but this contract really isn’t factoring much (if any) reduction in his output (or fitness) as he enters his late 30s. Is that really realistic?
I love Albert and he IS the Cardinals, but if he’s wanting 8yrs/240m, well, enjoy Boston, I guess. A smart GM should be able to replicate Pujol’s production right now with $30m/yr in free agent spending, and should be able to dramatically exceed it in 2016, I’d have thought.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 7:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah...
$30M/year is just too much…and I honestly don’t see Pujols requiring it.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Oct 13, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ditto
would pujols hamstring the org like that? his stated goal is to win. he is the best player in the game and should be paid the most except that doesn’t apply when you look at what irrational contracts are out there.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 13, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am not saying to sign or not sign
Albert Pujols, (or how much to pay) but consider this) Pujols has played as “hard a’ nine” in his 20’s as I have ever seen a player play and that goes back to Williams, Di Maggio and Musial.
I have seen SOME wear and tear on his body. I could be wrong, but I see a good possibility of this coming into play in a few years. In other words I can’t see his thirties being nearly as productive as his 20’s and with a lot less playing time past 35.
I would love to see Pujols remain a Cardinal all his playing days but with the way some teams are able to throw money around these days that might not be practical and I would hate to see the team damaged by a bad contract.
I like Pujols as much as anyone here, but I was a Cardinal fan before Pujols and I will be one after. Good things come and go.
by ridgesee on Oct 13, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Need top of the order bats
I’m all for keeping Holliday if it is (mostly) reasonable. My issue with the offense, though, is that there just isn’t a consistent threat IN FRONT of Albert to create RBI situation. This team really lacks a professional lead-off hitter and a solid #2 hitter. TLR did the whole “pitcher hits 8” thing to try to give Albert more RBI chances – it didn’t really work out with great benefit. That said, the team will need another starter, a real 2nd baseman, one or two lock-down bullpen guys, and a hitting coach. If Holliday goes elsewhere, the team also needs an outfielder to hit in the 4 slot.
A few days of reflection, and I’m not feeling awful about the season. Heck, the Red Sox got swept, the Twins never really had a chance, and the Rockies broke hearts as bad as the Cardinals in Game 2.
Honi soit qui mal y pense.
by p_lampe on Oct 13, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Schumaker/Lugo platooning as the leadoff is quite effective
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 13, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i have some concerns, actually.
even with an above average tail end of the season, lugo was only a little above replacement with the cards. he has a dire UZR at 2b: 14. If that’s not a UZR blip - and his even worse numbers at SS suggest not — we can look forward to replacement level 2b from lugo.
replacement level is not awful, but it’s not what I’m hoping for. you can’t argue with lugo’s price, but his actual value is pretty minimal. i’m not sure that he’s much different from jarrett hoffpauir.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 13, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
bah.
he has a dire UZR at 2b: -14.
If that’s not a UZR blip – and his even worse numbers at SS suggest not
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 13, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's a UZR blip
That’d be like looking at like a month’s worth of offensive stats.
Plus Oquendo can sprinkle his magic pixie dust on him.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 13, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
his 2b numbers could be a blip on their own.
my concern is that his SS numbers are also pretty poor.
maybe he has a bounce back — maybe he’s a -5 UZR/150 2b in 2010, in which case he’s very valuable.
hooray pixie dust.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 13, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Everyone knows it's Pegacorns guys.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 13, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He is so bad defensively
It makes Skippy look downright vacuumish.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lugo is fine as long as he gets the ball out of his glove
I have never seen a player do everything else adequately or very well except for one thing.
Then shockingly in his last appearance he did just that. So I have an inkling of hope.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe Jose is rubbing off on him
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 13, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't want to contemplate that, thanks.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the man stew strikes again
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 13, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
VEP - do you have an article in the THT Annual this year?
Just curious if I should be purchasing
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 13, 2009 8:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Damn it....I was hoping you would have some enlightening pitch f/x stuff in there
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 13, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But you should still buy it!
Toe the line, VEP!
by spants on Oct 13, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if Pujols
walks im seriously done being a Cards fan, and a baseball fan. to me player salaries have been driven up way to much by the yankees and redsox, and i would call for a cap finally.
After the playoffs im not completely sold on Holliday anymore that was def not something that made me say resign resign. and I almost get the suspicion that he is looking for the most money out there, not necassarily the best situation to be in. (boras client)
DeRo let him get an overpaid contract somewhere else, internal options right now are cheaper and better in my opinion, (craig, freese, mather). assuming mather is healthy.
Pinata, let him walk im willing to lay down my life savings he does not come close to repeating his 09 performance, not to mention he is going to want something ridiculous around 10-15 mil after his season he had.
I would rather see the cards pick someone up like lackey for that amount.
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
by DESTROYER on Oct 13, 2009 9:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hmm..
The argument for a salary cap is one thing…but would you really walk away from baseball and the Cards forever because one player left? I mean of course we all love Albert and would be heartbroken if he left, but its pretty easy to see why our interests as fans and his interests as an individual might not be in perfect harmony.
And you say you are “no longer” completely sold on Holliday after the playoffs, meaning you were at one point. 12 ABs (one of which was a home run) and one error is enough to change your mind? Seems extreme.
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 13, 2009 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
that error
was freakin huge, and honestly its kinda just been his attitude that I have seen, Its an I dont know type of thing with him almost doesnt feel like he wants to be in St louis
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
by DESTROYER on Oct 13, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He made one awful play
Everyone does. It was just unlucky that it came at the worst possible moment.
“its an I don’t know type of thing with him almost doesn’t feel like he wants to be in St. Louis” – um, okay.
I don’t doubt that he wants the money too, but he certainly doesn’t have an attitude that he doesn’t want to remain a Cardinal.
The situation in St. Louis certainly fits into Holliday’s Field of Dreams at this point. "I’ve found that playing on winning teams is the only way to play," Holliday said. "It just makes the game a whole lot more fun and more enjoyable. I feel like I become a better player, because there are lot more things I feel I can do that can help the team win, instead of playing on a team that is basically purely about numbers and self-gratification. I don’t enjoy that atmosphere in baseball."
“It’s been a lot of fun,” Holliday said. "I’ve enjoyed getting to know a lot of these guys. I’ve found a lot of them with similar intensity for the game that I have. “Everybody gets here early, and guys work really hard. It’s been a lot of fun to play important games for a team that’s got a chance to do something special.”
It’s been a lot of fun lately. Obviously winning games is the most important thing. I was playing well before the trade so it was perfect timing. I was comfortable swinging the bat since the first day I got here so everything was just perfect timing, both personally and professionally.
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 13, 2009 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
never read that before changes an opinion
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
by DESTROYER on Oct 13, 2009 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd counter with my fanpost
There’s nothing there about how hard he’s working. It’s all about how nice St. Louis is to him. He just feeeeels like the pie makes him better. There was nothing about the basic things like learning the caroms off his place of business aka the left field of Busch Stadium; he was still playing it wrong a month into his stint.
I wouldn’t have noticed it without the contrast of both Smoltz and DeRosa’s comments, both of whom were hard on themselves even when they were doing well.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good point
Holliday doesn’t come off as wanting to explicitly play somewhere else in 2010, but he also avoids explicitly saying he wants to return to StL. He’s taking the middle road.
Smoltz had supposedly walked around the clubhouse on Sunday saying farewells and telling guys he’s hoping he’s back next year (sorry can’t find the quote), just to view in contract to Holliday’s less-than-committal comments.
"Nothing in life is certain but death, taxes, and Albert Pujols batting .300/30/100."
by imfromstl on Oct 13, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smoltz is having a typical midlife crisis
plunking him in the middle of his Number One Fan Club plus the chance to compete is probably priceless to him. Tain’t nothing wrong with that.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Midlife or End of Career?
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he signed with two competing clubs that were likely heading to October. I think Smoltz wants one more ring before he hangs up his spikes.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
someone pointed out that Pettitte just tied him for post-s. wins
He’ll want a shot at topping that.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think bringing him back is almost as important as bringing Lego back
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 13, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
meh
Holliday doesn’t come off as wanting to explicitly play somewhere else in 2010, but he also avoids explicitly saying he wants to return to StL. He’s-taking the middle road.- negotiating.
fixed.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Oct 13, 2009 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I get where he's coming from...
I won’t boycott the team, and if Pujols leaves because some other team offers him over $27M/year I won’t be mad at the Cardinals. If he signs somewhere else for less than $27M per year, and the Cards offer $25M/year I’ll be mad at Pujols. If he signs somewhere else and the Cards don’t offer at least $25M/year I’ll be mad at the team.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Oct 13, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pujols
is very much a once in a lifetime grab and you dont let that go, not for anything, what he does for the team, the fans, and charity you just dont let that go
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
by DESTROYER on Oct 13, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A line has to be drawn somewhere...
and for me it’s around $27M/year. Fortunately I think AP will be very reasonable in his demands.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Oct 13, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
PERSONALLY
if pujols wants to win and stay with the cards he doesnt sign for more then 20-23/yr to resign Holligay, or Jason Bay
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
by DESTROYER on Oct 13, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
there are no lines for Albert Pujols, there are no boxes that he fits in
you give the mang whatever he wants & you thank the good Lord you are lucky enough to employ him
if he wants the Arch painted pink, you paint that mother pink
if he wants Busch III renamed to The House Where Mang Destroys Pitchers, you rename that mother
if he wants Forest Park renamed Mang Park, you rename that mother
if he wants the Muny & Fox Theater renamed to the Mangy & Mang Theater, you rename those mothers
if he wants Lambert renamed Mangbert, you renamed that mother
if he wants the Metrolink to be called Manglink, you rename that mother
if he want the Mississippi renamed the Mangippi, we got a new name for the river
if he wants toasted ravioli & ooey gooey butter cake renamed to toasted mangioli & ooey gooey mang cake, guess what, you rename those mothers
if he wants DeRo around because he likes to hug him & makes him laugh, you hire him to not play 3rd or OF, but as his official post game huger & comedian
if he wants Backe as his own personal punching bag, you string that mother up & pray for his soul
if he wants Joe Strauss stung up from the Arch & used as his own personal Pinata, bye bye Joe
if he wants the phrase
Albert Pujols Is Ridiculousto be the new motto of Missouri, guess what? we’ve got a new motto
my point is, it’s Albert F’in Pujols. you do whatever it takes, no matter how ridiculous it may sound or financially unwise it may seem to be, you do it. you just do it.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 13, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 12 recs
ridiculous? financiall unwise? some of those sound downwright fun.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 13, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
*financially
also, *downright. [ugh.]
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 13, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Manglink.....
next stop…..Mangstew…..doors opening to my right.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 13, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ooey gooey mang cake
That’s just worth putting up on its own.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 13, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll help string up Strauss!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Oct 13, 2009 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we need a java based
punch strauss game.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 13, 2009 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if i could put Strass's face on this i would
HFS! i just noticed that’s green!
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 13, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Don't player salaries make up a lesser share of industry profits than most industries in the U.S.?
I thought I read that somewhere.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One picture that represents the entire Rams season so far
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 13, 2009 9:21 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I'm trying to enjoy my coffee here Flim...
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 13, 2009 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My keyboard tasted my coffee....well played.
Mo, you can trade anything of mine.
by njnick on Oct 13, 2009 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
speaking of handegg
I started both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams last night, and I was playing a team that had the Jets defense in fantasy league. plus I had Fitzgerald on my team… the other team got their ass handed to them
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 13, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i picked up
miles austin friday and started him, also had fitzgerald starting as well
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
by DESTROYER on Oct 13, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BAHAHAHAHA
sad and true…
Looking forward to Cardinals baseball in 2010!
Feel free to follow me on Twitter: @zoomzoomj88
by zoomzoomj88 on Oct 13, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
looks like the vikings player is enjoying it too
I'm like a polygon, I'm edgy.
"OHHHHH!!!!!!! IT TASTES. SO. GOOD!!!!!!!!!!"
-BOOOOOOOOG
by slu on Oct 13, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hate Ken Rosenthal...
As their profile increases, the laziness sets in. I’ve got a $50 bill in a chink in the chimney that says he never did speak to any such GM.
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 13, 2009 9:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
my 2 cents (all i can afford in this economy)
my monday meeting with myself reveals:
arb for rosy, don’t think it really a difference maker if he comes back or not. we have a wide range of choices for infielders.
holliday—arb here too. i liked him in colorado, but he has bulked up and is not as good a defender as he was and with new pitching, i think we’ll see more flyballs next year and defense may be at least a small issue in left. he had a great start here, but after that, he became the oakland guy again in BA (barely edged luddy in total homers too). bay for less and willingham for 1/2 price with the money going to pitching (valverde?). we really need two more good arms, starter and reliever, and that is more important. with a real closer, we’d likely still be playing and we got little from holliday (i know he homered once). honestly believe albert would be happier with him gone.
pinata—tough one here. which joel is he? this is a price dependent decision. like ludwick, he is neither 2008 or 2009, but somewhere in between.
welly and rick-dick are probably gone, and probably best for them, though i do think welly might come back on a minor league deal as a reliever. dd may be a good coach, but welly was a reliever everywhere else and i think there is a reason for that beyond how hard be can throw.
have to let glaus go w/o arb (risking a lot of money), but i would not put arb as a terrible mistake—no worse than signing k greene. (with a good deal and some recovery he would be a good trade candidate). helath aside, which would you rather have, 08 glaus or 09 holliday in 2010 (salary included)?
the thurston decision will be interesting because he hits left handed and all our other internal options are RH.
i look for good things from freese, craig, and mather next year (less excited by t. greene) and we have lugo for free. we will need one pitcher for the rotation. garcia is a good possibility, but is he good for even 150 innings? i’d love to have smoltz, but i doubt he is 150 innings either. i think he would help set the tone for young guys, regardless of whether they are pitchers. gettin sentimental i guess.
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Oct 13, 2009 9:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
edited...
the thurston decision will be interesting because he hits is left handed and all our other internal options are RH.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Oct 13, 2009 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
edited...
the thurston decision will be interesting will be terrible because he isleft handed and all our other internal options are RH.
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 13, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
oh no
wit an entire off-season to scrounge around and scour the world, i would hope thurston could be replaced, even if the search is limited to LH bats.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 13, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We need two pitchers for the rotation, as long as Carpenter stays healthy
which is a big “if”. Waino, Carp, Lohse, that’s it at the moment. Whether we go internal (Boggs, Garcia, Hawksworth?) or external, we’ve still got two spots to fill.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We'll have to do both.
And I’m okay with signing two FAs and letting them and the farmhands duke it out. I really hope Boggs becomes a member of the Opening Day bullpen, though.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm pretty sure what Rosenthal did there with contract numbers fits the technical definition of "begging the question"
He sets up an argument by giving a hypothetical, i.e. that the Cardinals will offer Pujols a contract of 8 years, 160 million dollars. He then goes on to imply that Albert will probably opt to go for something more like Alex Rodriguez’s contract with the Yankees instead. Because why would Albert take 8 years, 160 mil when he can get 10 years, 275 mil? Duh! He’d be an idiot not to, right?
Unfortunately, when you suppose something for the sake of argument that isn’t actually true (the contract the Cards are “offering” Pujols, and that the Yankees will duplicate A-Rod’s contract for Albert) and then rely on these hypotheticals to support your argument, you’re begging the question (again, I think. At the very least it’s similar, because his conclusion is very similar to and relies on an assumed premise).
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 13, 2009 9:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Most definitely agree with this.
The Yankees have Tex, so why would they be bidding on Pujols in 2 years in the first place? He can’t play anywhere but 1B, and are you going to tell each of those guys that they’re only going to play the field half the time? Good luck with that Brian Cashman.
The teams that worry me with Albert, in decreasing order, are the Cubs, Mets, Angels, and Red Sox. I don’t know what the Rickett’s plan is yet with the Cubs, but they could look to dump Derrek Lee in the last year of his deal and make a move for Albert if he becomes a free agent, which would be the worst of all bad outcomes as a Cardinal fan. The Mets will have a hole there that they probably aren’t going to fill prior to 2011, so they’ll be in the running and will have the payroll flexibility at that time to go hard after Albert. The Angels will be players, as they will have shed both the Matthews and Guerrero contracts by that time, and will have money to burn. The Red Sox don’t worry me as much, simply because they seem to be very wary of signing anyone to deals longer than 4-5 years, which is smart, and I think that Albert is going to want a longer contract than that. Boston seems to be the team that is following the draft, develop, and trade strategy the best out of any of the contending teams in either league. They have drafted and developed a good portion of the players on their roster the past couple of years, and have dealt other players smartly to acquire needed pieces, like Victor Martinez this year, Bay last year (without the minor leaguers that deal doesn’t work), and Beckett some years ago, even though that trade has pretty much been a wash what with Hanley becoming a franchise player in Florida.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What is Kendry Morales' main position/position going forward?
Would they move him back to the outfield? I guess he is young and can probably handle it. And it would certainly make sense to put him in left or right to make room for Pujols.
I think you make a lot of sense here. I just don’t see even the Yankees doing something like signing Pujols when they already have Tex.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 13, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
UZR has no real data on him as an outfielder
But I think he could man RF and be pretty decent there. He’s a little above average as a 1B according the UZR data for this year (+4.4), but Albert’s bat would certainly trump his, even though he had a monster year this year. I would guess that Morales is not quite as good as he showed this year and that he’s more of a .360-.370 wOBA guy going forward.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah
Yeah, I have to agree with you. They’d be silly to pass on Albert Pujols because of Kendry Morales. I also didn’t realize his BB% was so low, his BABIP, etc. He should be a useful player, but probably not somebody to plug into 1B and say there’s no reason to go after Albert.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 13, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Morales
will also be in his last year of arb in 2012, so he’s probably not a long term solution for them at 1B either.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But,
wouldn’t Morales be more of a long-term solution than Pujols? In 2012, wouldn’t you rather have the younger Morales for 4 years than the aging Pujols for 10 years? I guess by the end of 2011, the Angels will have their answer…
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That all depends on 2 things:
- Do you think Kendry Morales is a .380 wOBA talent?
- Do you think that Kendry Morales’ age 31-34 years will be better than Albert Pujols’ 35-38 years?
Considering Morales’ walk rate, both in the bigs and in the minors, I wouldn’t bet on either of those two things happening.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if Albert goes, the Mets would be my guess
“close to family” is among his criteria, and he has family in New York.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he would most likely end up with the Mets, yes
But I think that the Cubs might be a player, and that would be much, MUCH worse for the Cardinals as an organization, which is why I put them first.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Albert to the Mets or Yankees is the best of all the bad options
I would get to see him play all the time and the rest of you would get plenty of national TV opportunities. But…then again..WGN is national….
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 13, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Somehow I just don't see it being the Cubs
even in 2011, I imagine they’ll still have a hefty payroll (although admittedly they’ll have shed a lot of their big contracts). I think the new ownership are committed to shaving a lot of $ off, anyhow, aren’t they? I can’t see how they could afford Pujols at 30m AND Soriano at ~20m without having a payroll well over $120m.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Albert and the Press
Strauss took some shots at Pujols for his quick exit after the playoff losses and this made me wonder if Albert would even entertain moving to NYC or Boston for the rest of his career. The press in those cities is missing the midwest nice gene and life could get miserable for Pujols.
by ubeddie on Oct 13, 2009 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I pray Albert realizes this and factors it into his decision making.
The press here is not always 100% MWN, but it’s gotta be wimpier than in those bigger markets. And I would think that should be important to someone like Albert, who usually doesn’t seem comfortable with the press.
If only we could pry Joe Posnanski away from Kansas City…
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 13, 2009 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
would the Royals make a play for Albert
winnable AL Central, increase ticket and merchandise sales, possible growth in tv revenue could factor into a decision by KC to put up big bucks to get in the game.
by ubeddie on Oct 13, 2009 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His OBP is too high
Seriously though, that might not be as crazy as I first thought. He does have the KC connection. But I just don’t see them being able to cough up enough money for it.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 13, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They might want to
but Albert would never sign there. They would have to guarantee to put a winning ballclub around him to even get him to sit down, and I don’t think they would want to bump their payroll enough to make that possible.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Grienke's extension
makes the bum royals give a shot every 5th day is that not enough? btw i live in KC and dayton moore doesnt have the balls to sign anyone good for the right contract, just bad players with one good year while over paying
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
by DESTROYER on Oct 13, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pujols to KC
only happens if Soria/Greinke/etc. are in tact, TLR signs there, and he is given HUGE money to help rebuild, in my opinion…however, it would give him a chance to “play” DH near the end of the contract.
by stlfan on Oct 13, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and pigs fly
he doesn’t want to help rebuild. and HUGE money wouldn’t allow them to, anyway.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 13, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
KC will remain mediocre for the next two years, no way he’s going there, no matter how many dollars they may want to throw at him. I think it’s New York or Boston, realistically (if the Rangers get super-awesome with all their young talent, I could see them making a play at becoming a major dynasty, too, they’re an under-rated player in the possible 2011 sweepstakes, especially if Davis continues to tank).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They have Justin Smoak coming up
I think they’ll be set at 1B for at least the next 6 years when he hits the MLB next season. Most scouts believe he’s the real deal…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
KC has to go with a Florida type of model.
They just don’t have the revenues to devote $25MM or so to one player.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Indeed.
The press in NYC wasn’t even scared of Randy Johnson. If he doesn’t scare you, no one will.
by spants on Oct 13, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Randy Johnson would reduce Lugo to a pulp
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
of course
we should really have a proper GLARE+ index.
glower leverage adjusted for reach and eye-size…. ?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The height-value of glare must be taken into account when discussing contracts.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 13, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lugo has worked many walks on glare alone.
probably effective against rookie pitchers, who don’t know what to do about that dampness in their pants.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
randy johnson is one of the few people who scares me
through the TV.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 13, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm not a logic expert, by any means, but
I believe Rosenthal’s approach is not begging the question, but presumptive reasoning; where the conclusion is provisionally correct.
by _pistol_ on Oct 13, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hm
You might be right. It’s clearly a logical fallacy of some sort. It’s more fun to say “begging the question”, and I really wanted that to be it. After looking it up again to refresh my memory, I came away feeling that it was similar enough that it wasn’t totally stupid.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 13, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His whole argument is based on a made-up premise.
And mattybobo points this out, as does pistol (although, I feel like a “the” should be in there: “the pistol”).
Scenario:
1) Cards offer 8 years at $160MM.
2) Pujols wants 10 years at $275MM.
No one knows if either of these positions are the parties’ respective positions. And, even if they were, on this, the third day of the offseason, so what? It’s called “contract negotiating” for a reason. Do I think the end result will be closer to Rosenthal’s made up starting place for Pujols? Yes. Do I think the Cardinals organization will draw a hard line in the sand at 8 years, $160MM? Absolutely not. So, why would anyone even write this? I don’t know. It’s not even journalism. It’s speculative gossip, more worthy of a London tabloid than a sports news website.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's loads more intellectual merit in our light-hearted mocking of his article
than in the actual article itself.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 13, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought the exact same thing
when you emailed me his column yesterday — it’s all speculation, and Rosenthal hasn’t even talked to the parties involved in this discussion to get a bead on where they are at the present time.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
rotation
Yes, i doubt we’ll be able to replicate this year’s rotation. Chances are good Carp won’t be able to do it again, pinero’s gone, etc. However, I think the team will be able to get valuable innings out of these guys. Loshe should be healthy, and though he was horrible for the last few months, if he’s somewhat less horrible, that’s a pretty decent starter. If they resign smoltz, i wouldn’t be surprised and it would fill out the rotation nicely.
Carp
Waino
Loshe
Smoltz (?)
Garcia/boggs/etc
by spencegrif on Oct 13, 2009 9:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Staff
I think we’ll see Smoltz back and another bargain free agent to “compete” for a rotation spot. I think we’ll see Garcia start in AAA and move up when Smoltz and/or Carp have health issues.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
FA
hm. It seemed to me like the coaching staff was thinking about having somebody out of the system begin the year with the big club. I think even mo mentioned that. i think garcia and the hawk were the names they mentioned.
by spencegrif on Oct 13, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
this sounds realistic
defy, cards, defy. hey logic --- you suck.
by effin fisk on Oct 13, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
bear in mind that Smoltz is a long shot to throw 100 innings next year
still, I really want him back…
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Starting Rotation
This should be a year to buy low on some starting pitchers, and we really only need one to fill out our rotation. I think that they guy that we should target, and one whose career closely resembles an old project pitcher of Dave Duncans, is Brett Myers. Now, hear me out before groaning….
Look at his baseball reference page here: Myers. Now go look at Dave Stewart’s page….see what I mean? They are awfully similar pitchers through their age 28 season: sporadic problems with control, injury issues (but not serious ones), hard throwing guys with similar pitch arsenals.
Duncan turned Stewart around (and this is just from stuff I’ve read) by moving his arm angle down a slot to get more movement on his fastball, teaching him a splitter, and showing him how to pitch down in the zone while using the top of the zone to get strikeouts. I don’t see why a similar approach wouldn’t work with Myers — he throws hard, struggles to find a consistent second pitch, and, from what I’ve seen of him, turns to throwing instead of pitching an awful lot when he doesn’t have his good stuff. He’s got talent, and I think that Dave could work wonders with him.
I also think that he’d come pretty cheap. I don’t think Philly, with Lee, Hamels, Happ, Blanton, and a good amount of pitching in the high minors are going to want to spend any money on Myers, and I would guess that he wants out of Philly as well. I don’t think that he’ll get an offer longer than 3 years at around $15-$20M total, meaning the Cards could get him for 2-3 years at less than what they paid Piniero for this season. I think that’s a good low risk buy for a guy that has shown that he can be a hell of a pitcher at times.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 10:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He seems like kinda a douche though
unlike some of the other more sabr-inclined posters, I do kind of feel that there ARE certain players I just couldn’t root for (doesn’t include Bradley, btw, who I think has had a bit of a rough deal in the press, despite being a BIT douchey), but Myers is such an a-grade asshole I just wouldn’t want him on the Cardinals. In fact he might be about my least favourite player in baseball.
If we go for a mid-level, reclamation-project-with-talent type pitcher I’d rather look at Duschsherer, who I think would probably come in at a similar cost (or even Rich Harden, who wouldn’t be a huge amount more expensive – maybe 3/30, 2/25 or so).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You could say the same thing about Dave Stewart
before he came to Oakland — he was written off as hard-headed and un-coachable, always wanting to do things his own way even if the results didn’t work out in his favor.
I don’t know why Myers gets such a bad rap though — he had the one domestic abuse incident, other than that I can’t find a lot of other clippings showing him being a first rate douchebag. If you think he’s a better clubhouse guy than Bradley, who’s worn out his welcome with three different organizations, then you better put some evidence behind it, because I certainly don’t see that.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
only one incident?!
http://www.the700level.com/2009/08/how-do-you-think-brett-myers-was-really-hurt.html
http://www.the700level.com/2008/10/brett-myers-fon.html
Yeah, he’ll fit right in.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The first two relate to one incident
and the reporter wasn’t exactly on his best behavior there either.
The last two are pretty circumstantial — Chad Curtis fires guns at a gun range all the time, does that make him a bad person? I don’t see what that has to do with him being a good baseball player.
The Philadelphia media loves to hate players — do I need to go back and search for all the bad press clippings about Scott Rolen too? I wouldn’t call him a clubhouse cancer.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what about his upcoming hip surgery?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That would concern me more than his
off field temper tantrums. But it would also make him extremely cheap on a one year deal if he could come back and prove himself. I would much rather take a risk on him than on someone like Erik Bedard or Rich Harden who will cost 2 to 3 times as much as Myers would, even at injury-induced reduced market rates.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you think he’s a better clubhouse guy than Bradley, who’s worn out his welcome with three different organizations, then you better put some evidence behind it, because I certainly don’t see that.
I didn’t say that. I said that I think he is an asshole and I don’t want him on the Cardinals because I couldn’t root for the guy. This is not an objective or evidence-based opinion, this is my personal feeling.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, I know your feelings about Myers ;)
I do think he’s a good player and one who could be had for below market value.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 13, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you're probably right
there’s actually a lot of pitchers this off-season who fall into that category (which, as much as anything, makes re-upping Pineiro for anything more than a team discount a bad idea IMO).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think a person who punches his wife in the face...
qualifies as more than a douchebag.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Oct 13, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
^^this
Gregatron is not responsible for any of the crap he just wrote.
St. Louis vegetarian blog
by Gregatron on Oct 14, 2009 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have had the same thought.
Though the hip injury concerns me and I wouldn’t want to Cards to hook onto any long term deal, I do think Myers is a re-tread that should be explored.
by JMedwick on Oct 13, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now Harden I could go for.
I can’t see it happening, though.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
his arm would fall off in st. louis
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 13, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think there is a lot of evidence that RIch Harden is going to be healthy and good going forward.
As he has trimmed his repertoire from four pitches, to three, to two, he’s spent fewer and fewer days on the DL each season. I could see him making a sort of Josh Beckett-like jump, finally becoming a reliable starter after years bouncing around in effectiveness and durability.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 14, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If nothing else
he could be a shut-down closer. While it’s not as important a role as a starter, I think with his history of arm issues it might be a good route to go for him if he can’t stay healthy.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 14, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He'd just be so much more valuable in the rotation.
If we’re paying him $7-8M per season, a 200 inning season could give us a huge amount of surplus value. Joakim Soria is a $7-8M closer, which Harden could be, but I doubt he could exceed.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 14, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can the Cardinals keep Harden healthy for a full season?
They don’t necessarily have a great track record at preventing or limiting the progression of injuries. Signing Harden has to be predicated on their ability to keep him off the DL.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Oct 14, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Harden appears to be trending in the right direction,
and many of his injuries and problems appear to be related to fatigue and lack of conditioning (ie. oblique injuries, velocity shifts from fatigue, and his arm issues appear to be of a similar variety (muscles straining rather than connective tissue degrading and tearing (yay parentheses))).
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 14, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure he'd pitch on back-to-back days.
He’ll often take off like 10 days between starts for no apparent reason. Piniella allowed him to do this stuff. Hell, he shut himself down at the end of the year and then went out and said he would have pitched had the cubs been in the playoff hunt.
Then Piniella publicly thanked him for his service!!! Unbelievable.
Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
by Tackle Box on Oct 14, 2009 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did anybody happen to notice...
that a venerable gentleman, goes by the name of Larry Borowsky, wrote a piece for Hardball Times the other day? It’s about the Cards/Dodgers series, so if it’s still to depressing you might want to skip it. Wait, what am I thinking, nobody should skip something written by the great lboros.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 13, 2009 10:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
confirms what I figured
If one’s going to get on Franklin (and rightly so) for that ninth, you’ve got to get on Duncan too.
sometimes our greatest strength — preparation — is our undoing. Stupid game plans are nothing on free swingers looking for a pitch to hit.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's why the closer job really needs to be in the hands of a fireballer that can throw strikes.
Even free swingers have a hardtime catching up to a 100 mph fastball on the inside corner. Don’t need much of a game plan for that.
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 13, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s why the closer job really needs to be in the hands of a fireballer that can throw strikesgood pitcher.
Fixed.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I knew that was a hanging curve as soon as I posted it.
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 13, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe a hanging slider, instead? You know, to cheer people up.
Cue the .gif!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 13, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Never could throw a slider, myself.
Whichever it was, Monk swatted it. Pitching never was my strong suit.
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 13, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can I Just Say...
that Ken Rosenthal is a goon?
by mynameistyler on Oct 13, 2009 10:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
just for research's sake
i did a GIS for “ken rosenthal making out with jeff passan”
by _pistol_ on Oct 13, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He is quickly approaching
Passan territory.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 13, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The thing is, supposedly Passan is a decent journalist outside of his cardinals hate (not sure if this is true).
On the other hand, Ken Rosenthal does things like this, or this, or this in his non-cardinals journalistic time.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 14, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't seen any way
that Pujols ends up in another uniform during his career. as for the other guys on your list….
Pineiro: I still have no idea how he did what he did this year. Obviously you have to find a guy to fill those innings, but he’s gonna be asking for big money. Feel free to correct me but it kind of reminds me of when Suppan became a free agent a few years ago. (Ask the Brewers how that one is working out)
DeRosa: It’s interesting reading what other team’s think of him considering all the hand ringing over the loss of DeRosa up in Chicago. I didn’t like DeRosa as a 3B cause I didn’t like his arm, but your problems with him are bigger than that. I hadn’t realized he had dropped off so much once getting to STL. Just looking at his career numbers I don’t think he’d play that bad again next year, but I’ve been wrong before. I imagine that if the price is right the Cubs will try to bring him back. Not sure how he fits into the Cardinals plans, but I’d imagine if the price was right they’d give him a shot.
Holliday: He’s gonna be wanting big money but I think he’s worth it. Just my personal opinion.
---AC 00 00 00 - Believe
by mjk83 on Oct 13, 2009 10:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
iff: DeRosa to the cubs
I’m all for a bidding war to drive his price up. ;)
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The only problem is knowing when to blink.
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 13, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We'll have to see what new ownership does,
but Hendry overreacted to problems after the 2008 season and I wouldn’t put it past him to do the same this offseason. As much as I hate to say it, I think it would take a lot to get him out of Hendry’s price range.
---AC 00 00 00 - Believe
by mjk83 on Oct 13, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
who's stumping for DeRo over there?
I got the impression there were players who wanted him.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
D Lee was IIRC.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 13, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he was a very popular guy in that clubhouse
I don’t recall specific names. I’d like to say Lilly, Dempster, and Reed Johnson were some of the guys but don’t quote me on that.
---AC 00 00 00 - Believe
by mjk83 on Oct 13, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i hope we don't overreact
after similarly getting swept by dodgers.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 13, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I get the impression the Cards are a bit more solid up front.
After getting swept Lou decided the Cubs needed a LH power bat for the middle of the lineup. That lead to DeRo and Wood being let go to clear up salary for Gameboard.
---AC 00 00 00 - Believe
by mjk83 on Oct 13, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
of course we are
i’m not worried about mo, if he makes the decisions. managers always point to needs/wants for why we lost (a la lou) because, god forbid, they themselves had any hand in it. we walked into a dark alley and got blind-sided, but it was daylight and our eyes were closed. we got progressively sloppier and lethargic thru sept right into the playoffs. someone should be held accountable, and i don’t mean fired, just accountable. TLR. yet they played so hard when they weren’t all that good.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 13, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doubt we'll overact
DeWitt has already said he was happy with this years team. Siting winning the division is the goal and you take your chances in the playoffs.
by Evilfrog on Oct 13, 2009 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pineiro
I’m a bit more bullish on him that some others here are, I think. I tend to reckon he’s found a new skill-set, and, whilst his HR rate was freakishly low and there was some evidence he was a bit lucky on balls/strikes (from VEP I believe) this year, even if you shave 1 whole run off his FIP he’s still about a 3-win pitcher over 200 innings or so, and he’s a pretty durable guy (with, by most accounts, good mechanics and pretty much one pitch). I wouldn’t want to give him a Lohse contract but I think I’d rather we’d given the Lohse contract to him, if you know what I mean.
Lohse just had a career year with his usual skillset. Pineiro learnt a new skill. I think there’s some level of reproducibility there. I just wouldn’t want to pay much more than $10m/yr for it.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
youve sold me on offering arb
but i wouldnt go longer than 1 yr w/ him to be honest
by FunkeeC on Oct 13, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
isn't piniero arb a no-brainer?
the only way he accepts is if he really wants to be a card, and nothing wrong with that. he runs to greener pastures and we get a pick.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 13, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you have seen more of him obviously
I can see the price on him getting high. It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out.
---AC 00 00 00 - Believe
by mjk83 on Oct 13, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I want the draft picks myself
We get 2 for Holliday, 2 for DeRosa, and 1 for Pineiro. Let Glaus, Wellemeyer, and Ankiel walk. The only good thing about Holliday dropping the ball means that Pujols will not be as upset when we let him walk. His defense was vastly overrated by UZR. I expected an above average fielder but he never showed that to me this year. He just made Ludwick look better.
Reload our farm system with 7 draft picks in the first 2 rounds.
Some people think DeRosa will accept arbitration. I just can’t see it myself. Regardless of his true value his perceived value is higher than that. For the ability to play multiple position and has a good reputation.
With the rotation currently set as
Carp
Waino
Lohse
#4th starter
#5th starter
#6th starter/longman
I think Boggs, Garcia, and Hawksworth can battle it out for the 5th and 6th spot. Their has been a lot of talk about resigning Smoltz to a one year contract similar to the one he signed this year. $5.5M plus incentives. I am against this personally. I would rather spend that similar contract on Erik Bedard he is younger, a lefty, and has good career numbers. On the bad side he has a lot of injury questions. He is currently a Type B Free Agent and not that far away from being a Type A. I think a one year deal would be a perfect situation. Hope Bedard returns to enough form to get that Type A ranking. Offering him arbitration and get 2 picks. The value of those picks will almost pay for the contract itself.
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 13, 2009 10:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
1 for DeRosa...
the dude at mlbtraderumors had an excel glitch that put DeRosa as an A. He’s actually a B. I already cursed the guy out.
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 13, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah...
I’m excited about getting a reasonably high pick for Holliday and avoiding the 6/100 that he’ll demand. If Pineiro and DeRo come back on reasonable two year deals, I won’t cry about losing the supplementals.
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 13, 2009 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
DeRo will be 36 after 2 years
and coming off wrist surgery. Unless it’s a real bargain, I think I’d pass (I’ve really changed my mind on this, I was all for a 2/16m deal earlier in the year, but I just think Freese/Craig will eventually put up similar numbers for free).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I agree
I don’t see how DeRosa could be much more than a 2 WAR player, which is basically what we could get from Freese/Craig.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 13, 2009 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that stinks
it would have been nice to get a first rounder out of him to replace the lost talent, although if the cubs signed him the birds would have only gotten a suppl. and a 2nd rounder as the cubbies’ first rounder is protected.
by dmb60614 on Oct 13, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
DeRosa will yield the same number of draft picks as
Fernando Tatis. ugh.
by _pistol_ on Oct 13, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
DeRosa now a Type B
the projections at mlbtraderumors had a correction in the last publication that pushed DeRosa back to a Type B, so only one pick for him (and less pain for the signing team)
by ubeddie on Oct 13, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
question for the field
If we kept DeRosa, what would an acceptable deal be to you? Opportunity-cost included.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
1-year
$5MM base, plus performance incentives that could take it to $7MM. Although, I’d rather have Glaus on that type of a deal than DeRosa (even if Glaus’ incentive-reach contract would be more expensive). Glaus is better defensively and offensively and is at a classic “buy low” level.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
agrees
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 13, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2 years...
15 million
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 13, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"way" too much?
he’s a consistent 2-4 win player. And he can manage the outfield if there’s an injury or we come up empty in the Holliday/Bay sweepstakes.
I understand people are down on DeRosa, but the prognosis for the surgery is good. I can see being nervous about a third year, but 2/15 can’t possibly be “way” too much.
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 13, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm now pretty much split between Glaus and DeRosa
Of the Rose’s D looked pretty good in this last series. Though he is still too short. Glaus… man, I don’t know what to think about Glaus. His D compared favorably to Rolen’s in that one game…. SSS, I think we need more information.
Stupid Curse-of-Scotty. Now third base will be in suspense like our middle infield was for ages.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
DeRosa
The problem with resigning Glaus is that he only plays third and the Cards should be moving Freese into that mix. De Rosa is better because he plays a lot of other positions (to varying degrees of efficiency).
by CRay on Oct 13, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
is there a reason why DeRo isn't Skippy's backup?
I think I knew what it was at some point…
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lugo
I think it’s just that the Cards got Lugo about the same time DeRo came back from injury.
by CRay on Oct 13, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but I thought Lugo was Boog's backup.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In Soviet Russia...
Backups Boog Lugo.
Did I do that right?
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 13, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
...you could really use any combination and it would work.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lugo is free
Then again, no reason the Cards can’t trade Lugo and his non salary to restock the farm.
by ubeddie on Oct 13, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Center Field
With Ank gone, Skip will be the backup centerfielder next year (along with Luddy?)
by CRay on Oct 13, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
who's backing us up in the farm?
all I know off the top of my head is Sugar Shane.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shane
Can’t see him making the big club next year.
by CRay on Oct 13, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
me neither
poor Shane.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jay?
or DJ Tools (probably still a year away).
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Oct 13, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh, right, Jay.
it’s sad that I followed them through their playoffs and I can’t remember names.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shane was traded in the Holliday deal
Right?
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 13, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Peterson
not Robinson.
regime’s new priority is to eliminate players with identical names. except Ryans.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My only thing with both of them is if we bring them back then what do we do with Craig?
I realize that he won’t just take off but he needs to be up here next year.
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 13, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whatever the arbitrator decided.
by Ray Lankford on Oct 13, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm all for those curly fries, yup.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i got some new arby's coupons in the mail the other day
so for dinner, i’m thinking arby’s
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 13, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
aannnd not i'm not
f’in coupons weren’t anything that they aren’t already advertising, just for those $5.01 meals
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 13, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still sign Holliday
if the price is near right.
by stlfan on Oct 13, 2009 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pujols
I don’t believe the Cardinals would ever willingly let Pujols go, and I don’t think Pujols would ever go out of his way to force an A-Rod style contract because he knows that will limit the team’s ability to sign other players. My fear is that depending on how competitive the team is over the next 2 years, and depending on TLR’s situation, as that’s the only manager he’s known, that could sway him to go elsewhere. Not for any monetary reasons, so much as leaving for a team with a better chance (in his opinion) to win based on ability to spend, direction, leadership, etc.
I’d be devastated to lose him, as Pujols helps define this generation’s team just like Gibson and Musial did for previous generations before him. I know I don’t look at A-Rod as an all-time Yankee, but Pujols is definitely an all-time Cardinal, and I think he knows that, and that he’ll do what he can to stay knowing how much he means to the franchise. Unless he thinks the franchise is going in the opposite direction of the one thing he seems to care about: winning.
That all being said, I live in DC and being this close to the Nats probably skews what little baseball judgment I may have once had.
Red Means Go.
by bigwilley18 on Oct 13, 2009 11:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Regarding TLR..
I think Pujols has to know that TLR is not going to be around for another 8 or 10 years, and is likely gone after 2 at most. As long as STL doesn’t push Tony out the door, and the new regime is of Albert’s liking I don’t see this affecting his decision.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Oct 13, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I honestly think that is the one possible scenario where Pujols leaves
If Tony were to express interest in coming back, and the Cardinals refused, that would cause some problems. And I still don’t think that would be enough.
Seriously, If Albert leaves the Cards in any way other than retirement, I will probably have to take a year or so off from baseball. That would be 1000 times more heartbreaking that any postseason loss.
You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all.
-- Earl Weaver
by Smokin Turkeys on Oct 13, 2009 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed
There’s no way TLR lasts as long as Pujols, and I agree it’s more a matter of how TLR’s tenure ends and who the next skipper is.
<crosses fingers for José Oquendo and not Bobby Valentine>
Red Means Go.
by bigwilley18 on Oct 13, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OT: Shitmydadsays
That woman was sexy…Out of your league? Son. Let women figure out why they won’t screw you, don’t do it for them.
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 13, 2009 11:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I love that.
I have yet to read one that isn’t hilarious.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 13, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh dear, I think I'm going to have to start reading twitter.
by peach concrete on Oct 13, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just shitmydadsays.
Go read them all……seriously.
RIP 6ly.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 13, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This was when I was sure they were watching FSMW
Do these announcers ever shut the fuck up? Don’t ever say stuff just because you think you should. That’s the definition of an asshole."
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 13, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No.
They were watching TBS divisional series coverage. I’m almost certain of it..
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually,
it was 9/27, a Sunday……Probably Hand-Egg.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 13, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably Phil Sims
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
best thing on twitter
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 13, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm Playing Air-Drums...
to Blink-182 records.
by mynameistyler on Oct 13, 2009 11:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
listen to some real drummers then
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 13, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i listend to your play list of the season the other day
good stuff. i had never heard of most of those bands.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 13, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Goold's got some kickassness about offensive splits
And I’m only at the first bullet-point.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 12:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
see him call Albert a bovine
MooCow will be pleased.
But seriously, Skip is the man and if DeRo can put it back together, his offensive value may be worth it at the bottom of the order.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
relevant to the post
These splits appear so profound that maybe the theory isn’t simple enough. Unplug Pujols, and you unplug the Cardinals. The uncanny impact he has on the lineup in wins was a .400 average one season and an .800 slugging the next. He gets so many hits that it seems almost trivial to cite the Cardinals’ record when Pujols has a hit or has an RBI. But these splits show that the Cardinals were overly reliant on Pujols. There’s no chicken-egg concern in this no-brainer. Pujols’ hitting comes first, Cardinals’ wins follow. And it’s an even bigger difference between wins and losses and than you expected.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We have a feast or famine lineup
If you look at the run distribution of the Cardinal team this year, it spells that out pretty well.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure the difference in Pujol's stats in wins and losses means as much as Goold thinks it does
He’s the best hitter on the team, so will have the best stats anyhow by a mile. The Cards will tend to win more when their offence is hitting, so you’d EXPECT Pujols to have the biggest difference in stats between wins and losses (i.e. a 10% bump in production for Pujols is larger, in pure OBP/SLG/OPS terms than a 10% bump in production for any other player, ANYWHERE). Everyone else hits better in wins than in losses, because they’re not mutually exclusive – better hitting = wins. Here correlation DOES equal causation.
A-Rod and Howard, two not-quite-as-good but still excellent hitters see similar “bumps” in performance that are presumably not statistically hugely different (significantly) from Pujols (I haven’t run those numbers, that’s just an assumption).
Finally, Goold seems to be arguing that these stats show that Pujols gets pitched around more in losses than he does in wins, and thus that he needs “protecting”:
The going theory has been if an opponent pitches around Pujols, it takes another Cardinal to win the game.
- BUT, as the numbers show, HE WALKS MORE IN WINS THAN IN LOSSES (subtract his average, and he is on-base through HBP and BB 0.017 more often in wins than in losses). So if people want to pitch around him, that’s, bad….?
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jeter is the conundrum there though
You would expect your great players to play pretty great all the time, right? Obviously they will be better in wins than in losses, but Pujols was absolutely brutal in losses this year, and that says something — if he has a bad game, we’re probably going to lose, because when he has a bad game, everyone else has a bad game too.
Jeter is pretty much the same player regardless of whether the Yankees win or lose, indicating that you’re always going to get the same from Jeter, so it’s on the other players to step up when the time comes.
Goold’s point isn’t to “get Pujols more protection”, it’s that protecting him doesn’t matter if he effects the lineup as much as he seems to with his performance. If the guy protecting Pujols has a bad game when Pujols has a bad game, then what difference does it make who hits there?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dunno, I just don't buy it really (nor am I quite sure what he's getting at)
You would expect your great players to play pretty great all the time, right? Obviously they will be better in wins than in losses, but Pujols was absolutely brutal in losses this year, and that says something — if he has a bad game, we’re probably going to lose, because when he has a bad game, everyone else has a bad game too.
Skip’s stats (excepting slugging) are even more marked than Pujols in win/loss dichotomy – are we arguing that he’s the bellweather of the team? You’d expect the difference in Pujols stats to be greater than anyone elses, because he hits better than everyone else and the two things (how a player hits vs win/loss) are not mutually exclusive. Say your entire team scores 20% more runs in wins than losses (probably an underestimate) – you’d expect all players to up their offense by an average of 20% over what they do in losses. I just don’t think Pujols’ numbers are so out of line with the rest of the team for us to say that he has some sort of talismanic effect that has more impact on win/loss record than anyone else does, except for the fact that he’s a much better hitter ANYWAY, so his numbers should improve more than everybody else’s.
Jeter is pretty much the same player regardless of whether the Yankees win or lose, indicating that you’re always going to get the same from Jeter, so it’s on the other players to step up when the time comes.
Maybe it’s just an exception, one of many. Maybe it supports the theory that “hitting is generally better in wins than losses but the players who hit better in wins than losses are essentially random over a season’s worth of data”. I agree with you that it’s a conundrum, but I’d probably have to see those stats for a lot more players (and for year-on-year data throughout their career) before I’d feel I could make any meaningful point about them. Goold seems to have cherry-picked a few stats and made a point to say, well, I’m not even really sure what he’s saying.
I’m not saying it’s a bad article, just that (in terms of the information presented) it’s probably fairly meaningless, doesn’t really seem to draw much of a conclusion about anything and lacks any sort of scientific rigour. Kinda cool to see the numbers, though.
Goold’s point isn’t to "get Pujols more protection", it’s that protecting him doesn’t matter if he effects the lineup as much as he seems to with his performance. If the guy protecting Pujols has a bad game when Pujols has a bad game, then what difference does it make who hits there?
That’s not really the message I got from it, explicity or otherwise. I think if that’s what he’s trying to say then it’s not a very well-written article.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is a pretty marked stat though:
In his career, Pujols is a .375/.471/.738 hitter in victories. He is a .280/.366/.482 hitter in losses. He’s clearly the bell cow for the Cardinals lineup. No surprise there.
What it’d be nice to see would be (say) a comparison with Bonds, or, I dunno, Aaron or somebody, and then a few great hitters who played in really great offences (DiMaggio or gehrig or whoever) and see if there’s a marked difference there. Perhaps also compare to Edmonds and Rolen’s numbers during the MV3 years. But yeah, it does look like he hits a LOT better in wins than losses.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Skippy gets on base
Perhaps Albert hits better because Skippy gets on base when we win (protection in front). Hard to be too convinced by what Goold is trying to do, given (as even he notes) that we hit more (by definition) almost always when we win.
by CRay on Oct 13, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
can't expect to win every game
and if we are tied to winning apu’s good games and losing his bad, then we are fortunate indeed.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 13, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's pretty easy to look those up actually
with the great site that is baseball-reference. These are all career splits:
- Bonds: Wins (.346/.494/.718) ; Losses (.242/.382/.477)
- Aaron: Wins (.346/.420/.655); Losses (.258/.319/.440)
- Musial: Wins (.351/.441/.626) ; Losses (.272/.350/.433)
- F. Robinson: Wins (.341/.438/.641) Losses (.238/.327/.414)
As you can see, this is a pretty common trait among some of the best hitters in baseball history. I do wonder, however, how much their struggles in losses effect the players who hit around them, and that’s much harder to look up historically. You would expect all the hitters, including the great ones, to struggle when facing a great pitcher, like Koufax, so that would obviously skew the numbers a bit, but it would be an interesting exercise.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
isn't this a desirable trait in a hitter?
if you pound the bejeezus out of all the half-rate pitchers and struggle against roy halladay, you’ve got a really good chance to win most of your games against sucky teams (see: St. Louis Cardinals, August 2009).
the same as with pitchers — if you have a choice between two pitchers with a 3.00 ERA, pick the one who throws 4 complete game shutouts and then throws a shoe in game five and allows 15 ER, rather than the one who throws five complete three-run games. capitalize on good games, put all your crap in the bad ones.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 13, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, it is...
I dunno about the pitchers though Tom, I’d rather have the guy who throws 5 complete three run games than the 4 CGSO/1 15 ER start, especially after this postseason.
Essentially, that’s what Jason Marquis has been his whole career — he can be great at times and at other times he’s shit on a shingle, only you never have a clue which one you’re going to get on a given night. I’d rather have Adam Wainwright’s consecutive string of quality starts than I would Johnathan Sanchez’s no-hitter followed by a game where he doesn’t get out of the 5th inning.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
I don’t see the logic in sorting on the outcome (wins and losses) and then examining one of the causes (offensive production). I think all it identifies is which player contributes most of the offense on a team. When that player does well, the team does well; when that player does poorly, that team does poorly.
Just to illustrate, let’s compare runs contributed by a player as a proportion of total runs produced by the team. We’ll compare Pujols and Jeter.
I’m going to use an old runs created stat (now out of favor) that I’ll call RC1:
RC1 = runs + rbi – hr (these are the player’s involvement in actual runs scored by the team)
and
RC2 = runs created as calculated at baseball reference
We’ll divide RC1 by actual team runs scored and RC2 by team runs created (summed across all players)
RC1/Team Runs Scored
Pujols = 212/730 = 29% of the team runs
Jeter = 155/915 = 17% of the team runs
RC2/Total Team RC2
Pujols = 165/789 = 21% of teams runs created
Jeter = 123/1003 = 12% of teams runs created
In some sense, we don’t need to run the numbers to know that Pujols contributes almost twice as much of the Cardinals’ offense as Jeter contributes to the Yankees.
I think Goold’s shows nothing more than the utter dependence the Cardinals have on Pujols’ producing……
www.mpgillusion.com
by ncgostl on Oct 13, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True
but it’s because of the lack of other offensive weapons that Pujols contributes so much to our offense. If you put Pujols on the Yankees and had him DH and hit third, he would for sure end up creating more runs, but proportionally fewer than the offense itself. Which brings up two questions:
- Where is it that the Cardinals struggle most? Putting players on in front of Pujols or driving in Pujols when he reaches base?
- How do we go about structuring our team so that one player isn’t creating 21% of the total runs, leading the team to struggle proportionately with his struggles?
Obviously the key is have a player like Pujols, who is consistently awesome hitter year in and year out, anchoring your offense. But it would also help if we had a lot better players around that guy so that our offense doesn’t hinge so much on just one player.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No disagreement
I think we’re saying the same thing.
I’m questioning what point Goold is trying to make. When you sort on wins and losses and compare slash lines, all you do is identify your best hitter. I don’t think that was his point.
www.mpgillusion.com
by ncgostl on Oct 13, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let me modify
The Yankees have a lot of good hitters. No player accounts for more than 20% of their offense.
The Cardinals get 30% of their offense from one player. I agree with you that the Cardinals would be better off if Pujols did not account for 30% of the offense. Having an Edmonds, Rolen, Holliday, etc., reduces Pujols’ share, and that’s a good thing.
I think Goold was trying to make a protection point (?). Having an Edmonds or Rolen behind Pujols’ reduces his slash splits for Ws and Ls. But that’s because Edmonds and Rolen pick up team share, not because of protection.
Slash lines sorted by W and L indirectly identifies the percentage of offense attributable too one player. If that is the point, why not directly analyze the percentage of the offense contributed? E.g., runs created divided by team runs?
www.mpgillusion.com
by ncgostl on Oct 13, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he sums it up here:
The going theory has been if an opponent pitches around Pujols, it takes another Cardinal to win the game. These splits appear so profound that maybe the theory isn’t simple enough. Unplug Pujols, and you unplug the Cardinals. … But these splits show that the Cardinals were overly reliant on Pujols. There’s no chicken-egg concern in this no-brainer. Pujols’ hitting comes first, Cardinals’ wins follow. And it’s an even bigger difference between wins and losses and than you expected.
I think that what he’s trying to point out is that it isn’t a “protection” thing, it’s that teams may be better of pitching around Pujols regardless of who else is on the roster, because the team only does well when he plays well. What he doesn’t do is just sum it up succinctly by saying: “Clearly, the Cardinals need better hitters both in front of and behind Pujols so that his individual impact on the offense is lessened”. To me, it’s clearly the point he was trying to make, he just clouded it up by applying “protection” to it.
Historically, it’s important to point out that these splits are near the same for other great hitters, nearly every one that I have looked up has a split like this. The difference is that guys like Ruth, Gehrig, and Mantle played on teams full of great players, so their impact on the overall wins and losses was less. Bonds is actually an apt comparison to Albert in his later years with the Giants, only his numbers are so pie in the sky that it’s hard to compare anyone to him in those years.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your clarification helps
I’ll give Goold more credit.
www.mpgillusion.com
by ncgostl on Oct 13, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Holliday is not Pujols
Pujols will be resigned by the Cards, I have no doubt. And he will be worth the money for almost all the years signed, assuming no major injury. Players like Aaron, Mays, and Musial showed little dropoff in their yearly performance until their late 30s – and that is who Albert is. And, with better conditioning these days, we might not even see that dropoff.
On Holliday, I feel he will be gone. In any case, he isn’t worth what someone will pay him. He isn’t Albert, and as we saw the Dodgers do, he won’t keep Albert from being walked. No one individual will. The best “solution” is to have a number of very good hitters (not just one) behind Albert (and others in front) to make the other team pay as often as possible. Paying Holliday reduces our ability to do that. I compare Holliday to Carlos Beltran, who terrorized us in the mid 00’s. The Mets paid him really big bucks on a long contract. Beltran has been a good player, but nowhere in Albert’s category. Not signing Holliday gives us much more payroll flexibility.
by CRay on Oct 13, 2009 12:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Albert's "protection"
needs to come in front of him, not behind him.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 13, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Milton!
Seriously, he’s ideal.
Send the Cubs some salary relief and a couple prospects, and/or Lugo, if they want him, to complement Fontenot at second. He would replace miles.
Pencil MB in for 120 games in left.
Bring DeRosa back on a 2/15 to play the other 40. When he’s not in left, he can play second against lefties (maybe).
Third would be covered by Craig/Freese when DeRo’s is in left or at second.
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 13, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He'd be on the bench/off the team
in 3 months. Seriously, I have no idea why anyone would want this guy. But then I read the Chicago Tribune every day.
by sdrone on Oct 13, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who cares about "protection"
As each year since 2005 has shown, the lack of three talented offensive players in the middle of the lineup for the Cardinals leads to a decidedly less dynamic offense. With skippy, lugo and Rasmus the Cards have decent options at the top of the order. What is needed is depth in the 4, 5 and 6 spots down the order.
by JMedwick on Oct 13, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This sounds persuasive...
but I just watched Brendan Ryan hit second in multiple playoff games. And it wasn’t pretty.
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 13, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rick Ankiel!
Damage in the two hole!
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 13, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
[shudder]
…even less pretty.
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 13, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I miss good Dunc batting second
Guy had power and a good eye.
by Evilfrog on Oct 13, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ideal for all concerned.
It gave us OBP and TLR “damage.”
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we simply want to maximise OBP in front of Albert
without breaking the bank, I give you…..
Bobby Abreu.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He'll be 36 and he is atrocious in the field...
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 13, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep. Should be cheap, though, and still a v good hitter
He really should be a DH somewhere. Still, he’s not been too bad this year (-9 runs by UZR) and was nearly average 2 years ago. I guess he’s at least a -10 LF though.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Assuming -10 and a 360 woba...
he’s a 2-2.5 win player. Bradley can be twice that.
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 13, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
count me off the abreu bandwagon.
no thanks. he had as good a year this year as he’s going to, and he was still worth less than 3 wins. age and defense are big issues. i love the OBP. I hate the rest of the package.
isn’t he a type A FA? i’m not giving up a pick to get abreu here.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 13, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I concur
I’m on the Abreu bandwagon!
John Smoltz for Cardinals' closer 2010!!
by jd is legend on Oct 13, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
biggest TLR mistake imo
plugging him in a second time. Boog flames out or fires up in L.A., and should’ve caught on to which one it was after the first go-round.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He hits lefties well
and we faced two lefties in the first two games. I’d have probably put DeRosa in there but I don’t think it was the huge mistake everyone thought.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think we could have made any judgments from one bad game.
Really…why did it have to be boom or bust for Boog? And how could anyone have known from the first game?
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 13, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I will damn well make my judgments!
hahaha.
but seriously, that’s his home ballpark. literally. he has easily a hundred friends and family in the area, and this is his first trip to the playoffs. the distraction level is at an all-time high, and we know how iffy Brendan is with distractions.
his plate patience is also a function of how many PA’s he’s had in the last few weeks, and he had limited playing time due to injury (or TLR). basically, what you see is what you’ll get — and the Dodgers have been effin’ wary of him since game number one of the regular season, hence the steady diet of inside fastballs, his Achilles heel.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can Nick Johnson play the outfield?
Or maybe we can trade for Willingham, or maybe the ’Stros will tear it up and rebuild and we can get Berkman.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 14, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Holliday is as good as Beltran, going forward
then the sort of deal that’s been mooted (5/80m, 6/100) wouldn’t be too bad. Beltran’s been a good signing for the Mets.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But. . .
Beltran’s still an above-average defensive CF, and Holliday is a below-average defensive LF. Plus, I’m not even convinced that Holliday is the hitter that Beltran is.
I’m very very concerned that we will overpay for the best six weeks or so of Holliday’s career. I think going forward he’s probably a 290/350/500 guy, who is below average defensively. That’s worth something, but that something ain’t anywhere close to $15M per on a long-term deal.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 13, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Holliday's career wOBA is .400
..Beltran only has two seasons (2003 and 2006) that match that. And when people talk about Holliday being as good as Beltran going forward, they presumably are making a defensive adjustment.
FWIW, his career line (Coors inflated): .318/.387/.545. Even with his struggles early this season and being away from Coors, he put up .318/.394/.515, far better than Beltran’s career slash stats of.283/.360/.496.
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 13, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Coors Effect
I am still not sold on the non-Coors Holliday being worth $20MM annually. This may be the obvious statement of the year on this board, but how will Holliday age outside of the hitter-friendly Coors and in the pitcher-friendly Busch III?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Age is the key word.
2009 Holliday stats.
581 AB
24 HR
.394 OBP
.515 SLG
.909 OPS
5 year average stats at Coors
531 AB
26 HR
.382 OBP
.548 SLG
.930 OPS
Is Holliday that much different anywhere else? He has power no matter where he plays. I will give you the fact he may hit a handfull HR/2B/3B at coors due to balls carring well and his ability to drive balls in gaps and run well.
After watching Holliday I don’t think Coors was the reason he is good.
by ICbirdfan on Oct 13, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not making a defensive adjustment. . .
when I say that Holliday and Beltran are about equal offensively going forward. Since his age 24 season, Beltran has consistently slugged 500+ while playing in tough pitchers’ parks but for 399 Juicebox PAs.
Beltran’s career line is 280/360/496.
Holliday’s career road line is 284/353/454. Again, that’s worth something, but not $20M.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 13, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not abnormal to be decidedly worse on the road
Players in general are.
So Holliday’s true talent level, home/away and park unaffected is probably around .300/.375/.525, which is really good. Plugging in his career defensive numbers, that’s roughly 5-6 WAR over a season. At $4 mil per marginal win, that’s $20m-$24m of value.
And why are you moving the goalposts? Maybe $20m is a stretch if you think he is going into a fast decline or if the contract is really long(still 3 years younger than Beltran), but your original comment was $15m/year, which I think he is pretty easily worth.
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 13, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But not that much worse on the road
That is an abnormally large split.
Player . . . . . . .home. . . . . . . . . . .road. . . . . . . . . . .delta
Holliday. . . 351/420/632. . . 284/353/454. . . -067/-067/-178
Pujols. . . 335/433/626. . . 333/422/629. . . -002/-011/003
Beltran. . . 283/363/474. . . 282/356/517. . . -001/-007/043
One of these things is not like the other. Look, Matt Holliday in Coors was Albert Pujols. Away from there, he’s Ryan Ludwick. Ryan Ludwick is a nice player, but he ain’t worth $20M, or $15M. And a Ryan Ludwick that is as bad defensively as Matt Holliday is worth less than that.
And lest you think I’m cherry-picking, those wewre the first two other players I looked at.
He might be worth $15M next year, but if it were my money, I wouldn’t want to bet on him being worth that past next year. And for that matter, I’m not sold on 300/375/525 as his true talent level.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 13, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It would be pretty easy for both of us to identify guys who were better or worse at home vs. on the road.
Point: nobody. For fun though, I chose the 2009 Cincinnati Reds, who according to ESPN had the most neutral park in baseball. Home: .327/.418/.745 Away: .309/.371.680 Delta: .018/.047/.065.
What does this prove? Absolutely nothing. It’s not broad enough of a survey to determine the exact cause of Holliday’s split. For instance, in 2009, Holliday’s home numbers were.326/.408/.574 vs. road numbers of .299/.379/.451. Guess what…still a huge split!! Maybe he just likes hitting in front of the home crowd. Maybe he is uncomfortable on the road. Who knows. But expecting him to only match his road numbers while with Colorado is foolish.
But this is all well-tread territory. In fact, FanGraphs had an entire article dedicated to this very topic. The entire article is on point.
Here are a few of the top projection systems predictions for Holliday for 2009 (which all adjust for park/league/etc.):
Marcel: .318/.391/.547 (the closest to his actual line of .318/.394/.515)
CHONE: .286/.357/.479
ZiPS: .289/.367/.486
So his true talent level exists somewhere in there.
And, just out of curiousty…what makes you think he is a below average left fielder? Could it be one play that sticks in your memory maybe more than all others? According to UZR, he has been at least 5 runs above average in LF in four out of the last five years.
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 13, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sorry, but that Reds example just doesn't hold water.
if you believe that the GABP is a neutral ballpark, I’ve got a bridge to sell you. In all seriousness, IIRC, ESPN’s park factors are 1-year factors rather than multi-year factors. Baseball-reference has GABP’s park factors as 104/105, both on a one-year and multi-year basis.
Seriously, look at the NL’s other playoff team’s splits:
Cardinals. . . 263/335/404. . . 262/329/425. . . . . -001/-006/019
Dodgers. . . . 265/336/407. . . . 275/355/416. . . . . +010/019/+009
Phillies. . . . . .263/341/455. . . . 253/328/439. . . . . -010/-013/-016
Rockies. . . . . . 287/367/482. . . . 235/319/399. . . . . -052/-048/-083
About what you’d expect, the Cards, who play in a slight pitchers’ park, are roughly neutral, the Dodgers, who play in a pitchers’ park, hit a little better on the road, the Phillies, who play in a hitters park, hit better at home, and the Rockies who play in Coors, are a completely different team on the road (and notably, their splits aren’t as pronounced as Holliday’s).
Look, there’s reason to believe that Holliday’s home/road split is more than just hating hotel breakfasts and cab rides. He has spent the bulk of his career playing in the most hitter-friendly park in MLB.
And no, one ill-timed dropped fly ball is not the reason that I think that Holliday is a poor OF. He gets late jumps and he takes odd routes to the ball. Maybe the numbers are right and he is above-average defensively, but I think there was something resembling a consensus on here before the NLDS about Holliday’s defensive shortcomings. He’s not Adam Dunn or anything, I’m not saying that, but I strongly believe, based on a lot of observation, that he is below average with the glove.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 13, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Talk about subjective....
based on a lot of observation,
What’s “a lot”? Since he’s been with the Cardinals? Did you watch him for whole seasons when he was in Colorado? I don’t think it’s possible for you to have observed him enough to refute the 7267 innings that UZR has graded him and pronounced him an above average LF to the tune of 6.2 runs via UZR/150.
I’m a pretty big skeptic of UZR used in sample sizes smaller than 2000 innings, but this sample is nearly 4 times that size and finds him to be a pretty good player defensively. You can’t blame that on the Coors Effect either, because Brad Hawpe is as bad as their is in right field and he’s been that bad consistently his whole career.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is certainly a fair ciriticism. . .
And no, I can’t say that I saw Holliday play LF other than when the Rockies played the Cards, and that on TV, which is not a good way to “scout” defense.
But I also don’t think that it’s safe to assume that because the numbers show that he was a good defender five or four or even three years ago that he’s (actually) (still) a good defender today, do you?
I mean, do you think he’s a good left fielder based on what you saw before the NLDS?
And maybe the answer is that Chris Duncan screwed up LF so bad that no one can play it in St. Louis any more. LOL
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 13, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think last year
was a serious transition year for him. Getting traded in the offseason to a league he’d never played in, adjusting to a new ballpark, new hitters, new road ballparks, and then getting dealt again at the deadline to a team back in his old league, but not in the same division. So he’s played at Busch before, but not more than once a year previously in his career.
I think that if he was in the same place for a good length of time, like 6 more years, he’s going to be an above average defensive player in LF over that span. I don’t think that UZR itself is predictive, but I believe that a positive trend of UZR numbers tends to be predictive after 2000 or so innings of work. With a sample larger than 7000 innings, I’d venture to say that he’s a pretty good defender.
I can’t really say how good he is defensively based on observation because I’ve seen him play in person twice in my life, against the Padres in the Friday and Sunday games in St. Louis this year. You can’t judge outfield defense very well on television, because you don’t get to see the outfielder’s jump most of the time, and it’s also hard to know where he was playing when a ball is hit in the gap or near the line. With a sample size as large as that for UZR though, I’m pretty confident that he’s a half win better than average over the course of the next 6 years barring injury.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you simply can't rely on your eyes exclusively.
your eyes don’t convey the full story. nobody here watches enough baseball to see it. and baseball is a sport with huge ups and down without any necessary logic behind it.
did albert pujols’ last three weeks at the plate make him look like a superstar? no. do i think he is going to be only an okay hitter going forward? no.
so when you ask
I mean, do you think he’s a good left fielder based on what you saw before the NLDS?i submit you’re asking the wrong question.
and as to your last comment, yes, you do have to remember that matt holliday is getting compared to a group of fielders in which there are a lot of jason bays and very few carl crawfords.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 13, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My point was not that Coors isn't a factor
Obviously, it is. No one would argue otherwise.
My point is twofold: 1) The Coors effect on that on Holliday’s numbers is vastly overstated, as his home/road splits hinted at this year and 2) looking at Holliday’s career road numbers to judge his talent level is dumb
I took issue with your statements about him when you said:
[Holliday’s production is] worth something, but that something ain’t anywhere close to $15M per on a long-term deal.
For each of the past 4 years, Holliday has been worth $16.4, $32.2, $28.0, and $25.4 million, respectively. Even if you take a 25% Coors Effect discount on the first three years and another 10% for “Margin of Error in Calculation” (something I completely made up to be conservative), his values have been $10.6, $20.9, $18.2, and $16.5 million.
I personally think that 25% inflation for Coors is wildly too high, and the extra 10% is completely for charity and demonstrative purposes. But despite only getting credit for 65% of his production, he has surpassed $15m of value in three of the last four years.
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 13, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW. . .
and apropos of nothing, Holliday hit well at Busch even before this year. In fact, it was his second favorite park in which to hit, after Coors, IIRC.
At the end of the day, I happen to think that the Cards can replicate Holliday’s production in another player for $15M or less without the risk that Holliday is more a product of (1) a Coors mirage combined with (2) the Cards seeing a hot streak. If the BoSox resign Jason Bay, however, I reserve the right to reconsider. After that, the OF market is admittedly pretty thin. Heck, some folks here are singing the praises of Milton Bradley [shudder].
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 13, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
With all of your problems with Holliday
are you seriously saying you would consider bringing in Jason Bay? I hope I’m reading that wrong…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Bay is substantially cheaper than Holliday? Sure, depending on the $
Bay 2009: 267/384/537
Bay Career: 280/376/519
Holliday 2009: 353/419/604
Holliday Career: 318/387/545
By the numbers, Holliday is marginally better than Bay, although anecdotally, the Pirates at one time thought Bay was good enough to play CF. Of course, that cuts both ways. LOL.
I think that Holliday’s offensive value and Bay’s offensive value are strikingly similar away from Coors field. I might even posit that Bay is a better offensive player than Holliday away from Coors, given that Bay’s offensive value is more walk driven than BA driven, which tends to be more constant over time, particularly since I think Coors tends to inflate BA more than it does walk rate or SLG.
Bay is just a year older. If Holliday costs $20M and Bay $12M, that’s a no-brainer to take Bay. If Holliday costs $15M and Bay $12M, I still take Bay, although it’s admittedly a closer call, and YMMV.
Why all the angst for Bay?
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 13, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because he's probably the 3rd worst outfielder in all of baseball
behind Dunn and Hawpe. His UZR for this year is helped by his playing half the time in LF for the Red Sox, where only 1/3 as many balls are even in play. They aren’t even comparable players, imo, if you look at them by WAR.
Holliday – WAR last 3 seasons (7.9 + 6.2 + 5.6 = 19.7)
Bay – WAR last 3 seasons (0.1 + 2.9 + 3.4 = 6.4)
Let’s assume Coors accounts for 25% of Holliday’s offensive WAR (which I think is way to high, but just for simplicity’s sake), and you end with Holliday being worth about 14.5 WAR over that period — still more than double what Jason Bay has been worth.
They are not even close to being comparable players in terms of WAR. They really aren’t even all that close in terms of wOBA:
Holliday (Career): .400
Bay (Career): .384
FWIW, that’s the difference career wise between Mike Schmidt (.395) and Danny Tartabull (.377) — would you consider them to be equally good hitters? I sure wouldn’t.
You’re getting a whole lot more value out of Holliday than you are Bay. To compare, you’d be better off giving Holliday twice as much as Jason Bay because you’re getting better than twice the production from him as an all-around player.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
holliday way better
than bay. don’t need numbers to know that. but the numbers tell us how much better, and i hope they are paid accordingly. Because then we could get bay for 9 mil or so.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 13, 2009 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No way
does Bay sign for less than $12M per season — I’d be shocked if that happened. Look at what Adam Dunn is making and he’s marginally as good as Jason Bay. Someone will offer him money for his bat and he’ll take it - My guess is that the Red Sox try to get Holliday to sign a 5 year deal and when they find they can’t do it, they take Bay for 5Y$60$70M or so.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And actually, for 2009 he should get credit for $22.9 million of value
I wrongly applied the Coors discount to 2009…d’oh.
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 13, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
and people on base in front
damage in the 2 hole is not what we should be looking for
obp is what we need to make it hard to pitch around apu
this is so simple i can’t believe tlr keeps talking about it
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Oct 13, 2009 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
why didn't tlr bat holliday second?
not enough damage?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 13, 2009 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As long as Tony is the manager...
You will never have high OBP guys in front of Albert. I really think he and Dusty Baker share a brain, or at least philosophy, when it comes to baseball.
by DiscoJer on Oct 13, 2009 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if he said that
he’d be fired, or at least “hospitalized”
sept could have been tinker time: schu-holliday-raz-apu-lud-dero-yadi-boog-P, for example
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 13, 2009 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No it wouldn't
be too bad if you could get Holliday for Beltran-type money. But I expect someone to pay Holliday much more. Somewhere on the PD I read this morning that Holliday will not sign before declaring for free agency (supposedly from someone close to his thinking). Of course, that could be an opening leak from Boras to try to get the Cards to pay more. Anyway, Albert is so good that no one player can protect him.
Also of interest is that Holliday’s last two seasons have been somewhat worse than the ones before. Now, perhaps it is the possibility of getting traded, ending up in Oakland, etc., that did this. But perhaps we would be buying a good but not a 2006-07 Holliday performance for big bucks. A hard decision in my view.
by CRay on Oct 13, 2009 12:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
revisionist history
glaus is healthy and producing like 2008 this year. we probably don’t make the holliday deal, and this off-season try to pry crawford for walrus. 2-hole hitter in LF. perfect. but glaus wasn’t healthy, so back to reality.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 13, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
De Rosa
I like the idea of resigning De Rosa. Doing so will allow TLR to break-in Freese at third base without a huge amount of pressure. Given the many positions De Rosa plays and his positive presence in the clubhouse, he will give Tony a lot of flexibility (which we all know is a word he loves) and a veteran bat off the bench on days he doesn’t start somewhere. Now, resigning De Rosa to be your full-time third baseman is not a good idea.
by CRay on Oct 13, 2009 12:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
May I politely suggest
that you click on the reply button to whatever comment that you are replying to?
Thanks.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 13, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or in other words
Ken Rosenthal should probably go away now.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 13, 2009 12:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Passan!
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 13, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's a good swear word....
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm just curious
but how much is too much to give Pujols? Where’s the cutoff? At what point do we say, “we should just trade him b/c we cannot afford to give him __________ and still field a competitive team?” There has to be a walk-away point for the team. All of you who think he’ll be resigned no matter what — how high should the team go?
by chuckb on Oct 13, 2009 12:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Certainly no higher than $25M/season, and I think that's even a tough pill to swallow.
I’ll dream that he’ll sign for $20M/season, but I know he won’t.
by spants on Oct 13, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree on $25m
And I think Albert would sign for that. In the past, he hasn’t seemed the type to demand the absolute most dollars. If he has changed, the Cards will learn that and then have to make a decision.
by CRay on Oct 13, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I think I'm with Spants on this one
25m would be OK for 6 years. If it’s 8/200m, I think that’s tough. I’d probably still do it, but I wouldn’t expect to be very far ahead in WAR terms at the end of the deal.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
absolute max
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Oct 13, 2009 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd go 25 starting out, 30 at the end
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 13, 2009 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just forget the 2011 club option
Give the man a 6 year/180 M contract that runs 2011- 2016. You have the mang locked up until his age 36 season. I , for one, am willing to be on Albert still being Albert at the age of 36. Have an option for the 7th year. It’s so easy I can’t believe I thought of it.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Oct 13, 2009 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like it!
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 13, 2009 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you like everything
i think Albert will DH from age 40-45, so why not lock him up till age 40?
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 13, 2009 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We can after his age 36 season!
worry about it then.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 13, 2009 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
fine, you sold me
send this to MO
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 13, 2009 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you're easy
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Oct 13, 2009 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
peach said the same thing the other day
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 13, 2009 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
guess that's why you never answered me
women hate easy men. which is weird because men love easy women.
we really are from two different planets
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 13, 2009 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eh, I'm not buying it.
I know plenty of women who like easy men. You need to meet some different girls!
And I think it was established long ago that I only accept internet proposals that come with internet season tickets along the first base line. ;-)
by peach concrete on Oct 13, 2009 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
all i have is internet upper deck seats, but they are behind home plate
and i totally agree with you, but i’m tired of girls. i’m ready for a woman.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 13, 2009 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
...
I know plenty of women who like easy men
I’m glad you said it, because I was thinking it.
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
"POOL TEMPERATURES FUCK YEAH"--tgreenfield, The September 10th-11th VEB Off-Topic Explosion
by andi_k on Oct 13, 2009 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Quit making sense and just lock up him and AJ
for the next 20.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 13, 2009 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For me, it's $28MM on average.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
25M seems like a good number, with a good (10M?) signing bonus and defer some money if need be
Teixeira gets 20M/yr for 09/10; then 22.5M/yr for ‘11-’16. AAV of ~22M for the life of the contract (with 5M dollar signing bonus).
I think Pujols gets 25M a year, (7/175 maybe?) with renewable options beyond—I’d prefer club obviously, but expect that a Mutual one is more likely. With the options, I’d like to be able to defer as much as 5M per year exercised so we can try and remain competitive if/when he does start to lose some of his ridiculousness.
MVP bonuses of 1M every year.
Clemente bonuses of 250K every year.
*I’d take one out of the Packers/Brett Favre playbook as well, and add a clause that states when he retires, he will get XX M dollars to promote Cardinals Baseball as an Ambassador if you will. This will keep him away from ALL other teams.
Stupid Sexy Flanders!!!
by timmycardinals on Oct 13, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I compared to Tex, not AROD
as I think it’s more conducive to compare him to the highest paid first-basemen, not player. Although, AROD is the comparable on note because he “used to be” the Best Player in The Game, and now APujols has that honor, so I understand this may not work.
In my mind, if we make him the highest paid first basemen ever, he should feel relatively happy and comforted (since even his niceness is ridiculously awesome)
Stupid Sexy Flanders!!!
by timmycardinals on Oct 13, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sometimes I wonder about really stupid questions
like if zombies attack the federal reserve and trigger deflation, which MLB contracts would immediately turn into wins and which would turn into losses?
(assume baseball fans and players would survive because of greater likelihood to have wooden bats — effective skull crushers — and leather gloves for decoying.)
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 1:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Rule No. 1 - Cardio
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
by Solanus on Oct 13, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sno-Balls? Sno-Balls? I hate coconut! Not the flavor, but the consistency.
You and me both, brother!
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
by Solanus on Oct 13, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would guess that hockey players would be best equipped to survive a zombie attack.
All hockey players are well-protected, whereas only catchers in baseball are used to doing battle in full armor. Football players are similarly armored, but don’t get as full coverage as hockey player, and have no real weapons to strike with and would get bitten easily while they try to head- and shoulder-butt their foes. Further, what hockey players’ sticks lack in heft and pure smashing power, they probably make up for in reach, and their light weight would provide for quick strikes. We all know, of course, that since f = ma (or maybe it’s p = mv that is more relevant?) the mass of the weapon is not the only important element. They are nimble on ice, which would be a big problem for the zombies with their low speed and agility (I’m assuming traditional, slow-moving zombies here, not “28 Days Later” style fast zombies). I can see hockey players luring the zombies to their preferred battle ground, taking out or knocking over the clumsy undead with their quick thrusts and whacks, and skating over and slicing up the fallen.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 13, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the zombies could just short out the electrical
and melt the ice. baseball wins.
that also doesn’t address my question about time-value and contracts.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps
They could also take out the lights during a night attack, which would hurt any group of athletes… Hopefully the attack would occur in winter, and the hockey players could fall back to a frozen pond or something.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 13, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I read that as "fall into a frozen pond"
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not optimal!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 13, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so you're saying the Canadians = auto-win?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Canadian hockey players would have the most natural advantages, probably.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 13, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so Carp and Hawk survive...
and Larry Walker
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Larry Walker would survive but he wouldn't be able to explain why.
Carp would survive through sheer will.
Hawk needs to be careful… the Hawk Signal might lure him away from a favorable battle ground situation.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 13, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes, but he also has the STAB!
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well thought out zombie plan matty,
when the attacks start, I’m coming to your place.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 13, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
also, as David Freese proved, anyone can wear the catcher's armor
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not saying they couldn't do all right
but there would still have to be an adjustment for most, and in a zombie attack that margin of error could be really important.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 13, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
survival will just have to depend on a good equipment manager
hockey style helmets for all!
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am going for the clay-pigeon shooters being the most naturally-selected sportsmen in the inevitable event of the zombie apocalypse....
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep.....
I’ll take my chances.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 13, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i went clay shooting today with the most awesome Revolver
It is a Revolver that shoots shotgun shells. Not much for range but seriously blows some shit up at close range.
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 13, 2009 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's awesome
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 13, 2009 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Me and one of my buddies go hunting or shoot guns normally every monday
He just got The Judge this week. It was so fun just blowing shit up with it.
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 13, 2009 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
my mom's family are big hunters, they've always been dispointed that i'm not that into it
i just don’t like sitting around & being quite while you wait on a deer or whatever to come along.
but i do like to shoot & blow stuff up. i’m not very good at it, but i do enjoy it
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 13, 2009 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
While a hand cannon is fun....
there’s just something soothing about a 3 1/2" 12ga.
/on a tee
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 13, 2009 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've got a buddy that has one.
Shoots a .410 and .45 I think.
by Tom_Lawless_Bat_Flip on Oct 14, 2009 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Holy jesus god.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 14, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Michael Floyd will be back before the end of the World Series
Who else is pumped???
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 13, 2009 1:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I might be writing something poetry-shaped
I don’t want to leave out the rookies and their cups of coffee. Can anyone help with an overview? My 08 is merging with 09. Thanks.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 1:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Cloddy Ramiros, Tyler Greene, PJ Walters, Shane Robinson, David Freese, Matt Pagnozzi, Jess Todd, Jarrett Hoffpauir, Clayton Mortensen and Blake Hawksworth and all had their first MLB experience this year, I believe.
Motte, Boggs, Garcia, Stavinoha and a few others got their cups of coffee last year. Barden in 2007.
I’ve probably forgotten somebody….
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kinney was tech a rookie
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 13, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The key 7th-inning guy in our WS champion team THREE YEARS AGO
was considered a rookie? Wow.
John Smoltz for Cardinals' closer 2010!!
by jd is legend on Oct 13, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes...
I don’t remember what their contributions are, is the problem.
Some of them were here overnight.
I’m hoping to get more “memorable moments” otherwise this thing is only going to mention Thurston…
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks, too.
damn this multitasking
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
woot! thanks.
I can look him up specifically.
oh, man, I can’t forget Barton either.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
tony had a good quote
on Barden’s award, something along the lines of that was last month, let’s see what you can do in May (in Memphis)
by ubeddie on Oct 13, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
during offseason
I’d like to concentrate on starting pitching and bullpen. I think that if the offense can get its plate discipline straightened out, it will take care of itself. gotta save that Holliday money for pitching and Pujols imo. offer Derosa arbitration, try to get Glaus to come back on very good deal, if not sayonara. adios to Pineiro (I don’t think he’ll be this good next year and he’s too similar a pitcher to Lohse imo), Ank, Thurston, etc etc
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 13, 2009 1:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Holliday is suddenly very unpopular
it would’ve been interesting to do a poll before and after the playoffs simply asking “Do you want Holliday back next year on a fair contract?”.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If it's fair, hells yeah.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Oct 13, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't mind Holliday
I just am thinking that the money would be more wisely spent in other areas. what I’m hiding here is that I really want Valverde as closer ;)
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 13, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The anti-Holliday sentiment,
I think, is based largely on the indicators that he is going to seek an unreasonable contract, in both years and dollars.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it's both
if the fans perceive at any time that this is a one-way street wrt their appreciation and his willingness to improve his performance, they’re going to turn on him. he’s been doing all the things he does well… well. Cards fans by and large will reward good effort more than anything else, and break out the shunnnnnn if there’s any hint of slacking. Regardless of how much value any player actually adds to a team.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
er, rather
there’s almost no data on MH working on something he does badly, at least to the casual fan.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I also think we've grown accustomed to acquired players wanting to stay in St. Louis.
For the niceness and pie. Or whatever. Edmonds and Rolen, if my memory serves me correctly were quick to state their preference and signed for reasonable contracts. Holliday has played the politician, thanking the fans without stating a preference to stay in St. Louis, and the fanbase, ourselves included, is not stupid. We can all read between the lines. Holliday may have enjoyed his time here, but not enough to re-sign without driving up the price by testing the open market. How many players in recent history have done this?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well said
both bgh and Yadi and others. Holliday has given every indication of wanting a huge contract with minimal sounds about wanting to stay in STL. And, as I’ve said elsewhere on this discussion, he isn’t necessarily THE single solution, and signing him will seriously constrain what else can be done. Remember, even with him in the lineup, we still had a huge number of games where we scored 3 runs or less.
by CRay on Oct 13, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did everyone see
that Brett Farve Junior Seau is making a hand-egg comeback?
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 13, 2009 1:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
wat?
that crazy basteech. I still remember that game where he broke his femur, that looked really really bad
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 13, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why don't you just go and live in Switzerland if you love it so much???
http://maps.google.co.uk/maps?hl=en&q=handegg&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=wl
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Switzerland is actually pretty cool imo
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 13, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There was a grad school program in Switzerland I mildly considered
Would have had to learn French though, and miss out on the Cardinals and Auburn football…
John Smoltz for Cardinals' closer 2010!!
by jd is legend on Oct 13, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but you would have Sweden's Finest
i’d think you’d survive
i know sweden & switzerland are not the same country
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 13, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bill Dewitt was just on Bernie's show
A quick recap:
1) Confident that TLR and Duncan will Return
-Working on issues with minor league and major league disconnect in pitching philosophy
2) Signals between Albert and Dewitt about him being a Cardinal for life
3) Wants to retain holliday very much
-If he is after the last dollar then Cards are at disadvantage
-If his attitude is good about team, fans, and organization then the cards will make a serious effort to make him happy
4) Derosa situation is not pressing right now due to his pending surgery
-He will be less of a primary focus than Holliday and other more pressing situations (but they will maintain discussions with him during the whole time)
5) Hal McCrae (Spelling) will be handled after TLR decides what to do
-Dewitt wants to let Tony handle his staff
6) Will not project payroll right now
-unwilling to go all out at outset of season in order to have room to expand as the season plays out (much the same as this year)
Thats what I wrote down… my boss walked by and I missed some of the Duncan stuff… but that is the basic gist of what was said
SlamalamaJackADongWick cares very little about your draft pick standing-by gdm426
by FredbirdisaDork on Oct 13, 2009 2:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
thnx
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 13, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for summarizing
Signals between Albert and Dewitt about him being a Cardinal for life
Could you elaborate on this point?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this sounds like a weird cocktail party...
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh no, i saw the "ice storm." i know how this one ends.
Boog! Don’t sit on the guardrail under the power line!
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 13, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I laughed.
someone else said something like that re: the No Roof in Minnesota game this April.
oh, Boog. don’t hurt yourself.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A Bernie tweet
DeWitt said Pujols communicated a desire to get something done on a contract extension.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 13, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Was this the aforementioned "signal?"
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think so....
I haven’t heard the interview yet, but it’s probably archived on 101.1 or insidestl.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 13, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
did he raise an eyebrow? tap his nose?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tipping his pitches
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Oct 13, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you tap your foot twice.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 13, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Too Funny!!!
a rec for you sir.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 13, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I recently took a crap...
in that stall during a layover. Seemed like a perfectly respectable neighborhood.
On the way out, I asked the Somili cleaning lady why there wasn’t a plaque. She just stared at me.
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 13, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
but does this mean they are not sure about McRae?
Confident that TLR and Duncan will Return
I want the Walrus back...
by Paulspike on Oct 13, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, never mind...
5) Hal McCrae (Spelling) will be handled after TLR decides what to do
-Dewitt wants to let Tony handle his staff
I want the Walrus back...
by Paulspike on Oct 13, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i do not like the part about the disconnect about pitching philosophy
that’s bullshit if they are going to let Dave decided what pitchers throw. have they learned nothing? his philosophy cost us ARey, YP & now as Franky as our closer. enough is enough. let the old man go & don’t let the door hit him where the good Lord split him on the way out. do not under any circumstances let him dictate how you develops your minor league pitchers. especially when that philosophy is proven to not work with everyone.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 13, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder what the "Disconnect" is?
Seems to be a very deep rooted issue if the word they chose is “disconnect”….
by ICbirdfan on Oct 13, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i thought it meant they are not drafting pitchers who "pitch to contact" and not teaching that philosophy
and now they are going to just to please Dave. which is so beyond what they should be doing it’s not even funny, it’s infuriating.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 13, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't mind...
I have zero issue with “pitch to contact” if guys throw 95-96 like Carp…. I really don’t want to see PJ Walters typ “pitch to contact” pitchers though.
Pitch to Contact is a bogus term because it is generally used to describe guys who are not good.
by ICbirdfan on Oct 13, 2009 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
they should try
to dratt pitchers like carp and waino. don’t know why anyone would draft piniero types, even 2009 piniero. try to turn the carp/waino busts into the pinieros of the world. dunc can do that. but i wouldn’t be drafting him a bunch of “young joels”.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 13, 2009 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
picking prospect-level talent is a hugely hit-or-miss experience.
it’s gotten better recently, but if there were a secret to drafting the next chris carpenter, people would be all over it.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 13, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
*pitching talent
picking position players is much more straightforward, though not foolproof either.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 13, 2009 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
just saying
the odds are better if you’re actually trying to pick a carp to get a carp
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 13, 2009 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think it's more complicated than that.
a lot of young power pitchers a) lack control b) lack secondary pitches and c) burn the hell out of their arms or lose velocity on the way up.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 13, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
a) and b) don't concern me
it’s the norm if we’re talking about high-schoolers, and common too with college arms. that’s what the minors are for. as for losing velocity, every pitcher does that as the years pile up. maddux threw 95-96 in the day.
are power pitchers more susceptible to injury? i’m asking, because i really don’t know.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 13, 2009 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Correct
My impression is that some people think Duncan is so focused on pitch to contact sinkerballers that they are passing on nice looking power arms. The power arm is a different style of pitcher, but one that can be effective.
I think Anthony Reyes is an example. He wasn’t a sinkerballer but was still effective when he did it his way and struggled when they tried to jam him into the PTC, sinkerballer box.
I think the 2009 draft (Shelby Miller) shows a movement away from the PTC philosophy, and toward taking the best available arm regardless of their approach, and may have been one of the things that got Big Dunc’s ire up.
by thepainguy on Oct 13, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
mmmm
cause i was gonna ask, until we drafted shelby miller, who exactly DIDNT fit into the PTC box?
by FunkeeC on Oct 13, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can we teach wellemeyer to not PTC?
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 13, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Adam Ottavino is a prime candidate to
not PTC. He’s got a live fastball and above average breaking ball.
The Cardinals can’t teach pitchers in the minors how to throw strikes. This is the failure of the minor league development system.
If Duncan returns, Jaime Garcia will be a tremendous test case for him developing young pitchers.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Oct 13, 2009 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i hope you are correct
and is a movement rather than an aberration
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 13, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
I think Anthony Reyes is an example. He wasn’t a sinkerballer but was still effective when he did it his way and struggled when they tried to jam him into the PTC, sinkerballer box.
You’re right, he was effective until he lost 3 mph off his fastball, at which point being a fastball/change pitcher wasn’t all that effective for him. He hasn’t been any better since the Cardinals traded him, so if it was the PTC philosophy that doomed him, why hasn’t he shown a resurgence somewhere else? He lost velocity, which made the differentiation between his good fastball and his fantastic change-up less noticeable, which in turn made him more hittable.
Some people here have concluded that Duncan “screwed him up” and that he’ll never be the same. I’ve concluded that his loss of velocity, for whatever reason, doomed his career. This could be from his poor mechanics, to overuse in college, to any number of things. I don’t think that Duncan can be given the blame for ruining Anthony Reyes’ career, any more than TLR should take credit for ruining Rick Ankiel’s career or Dusty Baker for ruining Prior and Wood.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 13, 2009 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He was effective until he ditched the changeup for his slurve.
There is a quote out there about how duncan told him to use the breaking ball to get ground balls. A lot of those breaking balls, his 3rd or 4th best pitch, landed in the seats instead. Of course since it was normally a double play situation that meant they were HRs with men on base.
The sinker vs 4sfb didn’t help. Epically since his sinker never sunk.
by DriverZn on Oct 13, 2009 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Was this before or after
he lost his 95 mph heater? I think it was after, when Duncan realized that his method of getting hitters out in the minors wasn’t going to translate without his great fastball.
Look, even PEDRO MARTINEZ has had this problem, and he had a lot better breaking stuff than Reyes ever did. He was essentially a fastball/change pitcher when he was at his most dominant, and he’s been only a little better than league average once he lost the ability to dial it up to 95+ on the gun.
Sure, you can fault Duncan if you like, and with the amount of circumstantial evidence out there, I’m not going to change anyone’s mind if that’s what they believe. But when you look at the facts, when he first came up he was throwing 93-94 and touching 95 at times, and when he was traded he was throwing 89-90 and touching 91-92 occasionally. That’s a huge difference in velocity and it was ultimately doomed him. Prior had the exact same problem. It may be a Tom House mechanics issue, as I’m sure thepainguy would elaborate on.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 14, 2009 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reyes = Confounded
Reyes definitely had mechanical problems, which were Mark Prior and Tom House related, which cost him his fastball. That’s why he was lights out at first. However, when his shoulder started to break down and he lost his killer fastball he couldn’t adapt.
When talking about Reyes as a power guy, you have to focus on him right out of school and when he first came up and before the mechanical issues started to take their toll.
by thepainguy on Oct 14, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, but no one's philosophy for minor league pitchers works "for everyone"...
so, under your criteria, no one will be suitable. The fact is that lots of minor leaguers wash out for all kinds of reasons when they get to the majors. And I don’t get how Dunc “cost” us YP (and I don’t care that he cost us ARey).
“Talented young reliever gets traded for midseason help” doesn’t scream “Dunc cost us YP” to me.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Oct 13, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gordon has a nice article
on stltoday talking about our upgrades for the 2010 season that do not require a transaction. of course, the article is centered on the idea of Holliday and the offense so the starting rotation or bullpen is left untouched. Out of the notable quotes I might pull out of it are:
Ryan Ludwick and Colby Rasmus both yielded at-bats to Ankiel and Chris Duncan this season. Combined, Ankiel and Duncan hit .229 with 16 homers and 60 RBI in 632 at-bats. Those are terrible numbers.
Allen Craig’s powerful second half at Memphis will earn him consideration for a Cards bench role in 2010. The parent club had no place for him in 2009 -– despite harboring several useless players on its 25-man roster
Fans will clamor for a big-name offensive addition if Holliday departs, but pickings could be slim. Given all these factors, the Cards could improve by relying on internal solutions, making lesser offensive additions and moving more money into the starting rotation and bullpen.
And the article is here, of course. Salami!
I want the Walrus back...
by Paulspike on Oct 13, 2009 2:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Gordo is very bullish on Allen Craig.
And I’m greatly enjoying it. I believe he wrote in a previous piece that there was a 100 percent chance of Craig offering an offensive upgrade to our bench next year.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's too bad that gordo takes a bunch of positions that i agree with generally and then
defends them in the most half-assed way possible. like trying to establish thurston’s level of suck by using his monthly batting average splits.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 13, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's frustrating, to be sure.
The stats in this column are confusing and not very representative.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think not bringing Craig up at the end of the season
is just as bad as anthing else the cards did this season. didn’t make any sense.
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 13, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
None whatsoever.
But, their roster management around August 30th was just plain stupid. At that point, we looked like a good bet for the division crown, yet they didn’t construct the roster in a way that gave TLR the best 25 players. How they don’t have Freese, for his glove and bat, and Tyler Greene, for his glove and baserunning, is simply beyond me.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm surprised tony didn't get more heat for his postseason lineup.
why we didn’t have freese or craig pinchhitting in lieu of glaus and ankiel, i don’t know.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 13, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it was flabbergasting to say the least
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 13, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Glaus shouldn't have been on the roster.
He just did not have enough PAs to get himself ready to take big-league PAs in the playoffs.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LaRussa...
is not going to drop our lefthanded backupcenterfielder in favor of a righty third baseman who has never taken a swing in the majors and isn’t even on the 40-man.
Glaus/Freese is a somewhat closer call, but I’m not sure there’s an obvious choice there.
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 13, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"backupcenterfielder"
love that word…
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 13, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fungoes
For those you not reading it, I recommend checking out the Cards’ blog. A nice tidbit from a recent post related to the postseason roster management:
" Unsurprisingly, TLR carried 12 pitchers on the NLDS roster (Joe Torre, 11). He used only 11 (Kyle Lohse was the odd-man out). This sub-optimal roster composition — he was forced to use Jason LaRue as a pinch hitter in Game 3 — was one of several questionable NLDS moves by the Cardinals’ skipper, mostly decisions erring on loyalty to his veteran “go-to” guys (to wit: Carpenter, Glaus and Franklin).
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Erring on loyalty to his veteran...
‘go-to’ guys…"
like… Carpenter??? Right… should’ve shucked him right out of there in the 4th and stuck in Motte.
MB for LF in 2010!
by guayzimi on Oct 13, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No,
he should have PH for Carpenter in the top of the 5th inning after the Rasmus double and brought Lohse in. Carp clearly did not have his best stuff and was only used for the bottom of the fifth anyway, so, why not PH and give the club a chance to score the run?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
pitchers on the roster who didn't pitch in the postseason -- lohse, boggs.
hmm. one more pinch hitter would have been nice.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 13, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Boggs pitched in Game 1
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
started with rule 5
not just in august
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Oct 13, 2009 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ah!
moving more money into the starting rotation and bullpen! just what I wanted!
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 13, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bullpen
Sign Billy Wagner.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trade for Chris Perez!
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 13, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes!
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 13, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
promote sanchez!
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 13, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the dirty one?
that would go great with man stew…
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
by nomar34 on Oct 14, 2009 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Dirty" might at least make some pure baseball sense, since his stuff is apparently filthy
Is it not?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 14, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That stings.
I try not to mention his name. I was muttering it during the 9th inning of Game 2.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
After each Casey Blake foulball,
“Young Pitcher…Young Pitcher.” Then, I remembered his name. “Perez…Why did we trade Perez?…I wish we hadn’t have traded Perez…”
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i kept thinking smoltzie
but, yeah.
and i also thought, these are the kind of at-bats/players i want (blake).
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 13, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought of Smoltz later,
but, honestly, when the Dodgers started getting hits, I started thinking of Chris Perez. Of course, my allegiance to Chris Perez and Jess Todd are well-documented. I called the DeRosa trade “Jockettyism” when it was made, in an emotional bit of pejorative venting.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Oct 13, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i hear ya.
perez, IMO, has nathan-like upside. todd, in my few glimpses and what i’ve read, always brought to mind huston street. both are good. we seemed in dire straights with thursty et al at third, though. and then dero got hurt.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
by cardball on Oct 13, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather sign Valverde
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 13, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
is that a yuck because he's a show off or a yuck because you don't think he's any good?
i think he’s good, but i hate his act when after every K he dances around like he just pitched a perfect game in the WS. i’d like to have him, but only if he stopped that crap. especially if it means no more franky in the 9th. and of course only if the price is right
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 13, 2009 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i agree with that 100 %
of course I think the exact same thing every single time someone brings up the idea of signing Mike Cameron. If he signs here, Albert doesn’t start untucking his shirt, does he?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Oct 13, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
on the Cardinals, Albert Pujols untucks you
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 13, 2009 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I getting into the Milton Bradley spirit
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 13, 2009 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bring on the robot umps!
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
by RiverRat on Oct 13, 2009 3:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My return
I went to D.C. this weekend to see the sights with my wife…not sure what happened in the baseball world, as its all a blur to me…i feel like something heartbreaking and awful may have transpired…Good think i can’t remember it
If i knew beyond a shadow of a doubt that the draft picks we got fo Holliday would be future major league stars, i would say let him walk…but i don’t so i hope we do everything possible to sign him
I don’t need that assurance with DeRosa, let him walk…craig and/or freese can put up the numbers he contributed to the cards this year…plus he’s a type A…we can get those picks…let the cubs re-sign him
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
by VolsnCards5 on Oct 13, 2009 4:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
not a type A
welcome back
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well shit
though thats probably better for derosa…another team is more likely to sign him if we offer arb…may be better for us too now that i think about it…we won’t get as good of a draft pick, but we also won’t get derosa on a big arby contract
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
by VolsnCards5 on Oct 13, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i could still get excited for five picks before the second round starts.
Holliday (1st & supp), Pineiro (supp), DeRosa (supp).
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Oct 13, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bochy resigned by Giants
per mercurynews.com two years plus option for 2012 – a possible landing spot for TLR looks gone
by ubeddie on Oct 13, 2009 4:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
there's always cincinnatti
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 13, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm pretty convinced that he's either going to retire or stay here
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 13, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i really am at the point were i'd like a manager
i love Tony, i really really do. i know i rip on him for crap like thurston & pulling Cody & other things. but you can’t argue with his results. the man’s a winner. whether it’s because he always seems to be been lucky enough to be around great players, or whatever. his teams always seem to be in the hunt to win. and i will always be grateful & thankful to him for all the good he’s done while running the Cards.
but i really do believe it’s time for him to go.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 13, 2009 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think either way it's good
Larussa is a successful manager without a doubt. but I am not sure that someone couldn’t do it better… I think many of us have pointed out many situations where he could have made better decisions and helped the team. what he is good at is giving fair playing time to all the players, but I’m not sure that his loyalty to sticking to certain people (why was Thurston on the playoff roster? wouldn’t Freese or Craig have been better options in the playoffs for pinch hitters?) is always beneficial to the team, if at all. other than a lot of smaller quibbles though, the guy gets the job done and I wouldn’t mind another year or two too much…. I just hope he’s not here forever
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 13, 2009 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Demonizing Michael Jackson was easy until he was no longer here.
The title really has nothing to do with my point, but still. Good to keep in mind.
To me, Tony isn’t the #1 concern of this ballclub – regardless of the fact that it’s a manager’s job to produce wins, Tony’s tenure here has been consistently winful => Tony’s doing his job, etc. etc. etc. My major interest in this annual discussion is the inclusion of Dave Duncan in the management package.
Year after year, it seems that Dunc’s projects add the most value to the team. This year, of course, was no exception. With a small market team that is always struggling to scrape together the cash to compete with teams on teh coasts, this is a freaking invaluable attribute. However, due to his immense case of butthurt over Baby Dunc’s “treatment” by the team – I strongly believe he is gone either way. And without Dunc, I really don’t have strong feelings who is filling out lineup cards for the home team.
So yes, it is always great to see Tony back year after year because I think he should stay until he doesn’t want to manage anymore. But in terms of the impact of his decision on the future success of the franchise, I have no strong feelings.
"on gameday it says duke loves to face the four seamer and hates to face the four seamer" -VolsnCards5
"perhaps it's a computer joke about the duality of man." -tom s.
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Oct 13, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs