Albert Pujols freakout #1
by DanUpBaby on Oct 13, 2009 6:00 AM EDT
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PrintFor Cardinals fans it is a long season, as the aphorism goes, but it is also a long offseason. Enter article one seeking to place Albert Pujols in greener pastures through the awesome journalistic power of stacked hypothetical situations, courtesy Ken Rosenthal, who would be better served continuing to break news if this is his idea of making sense of it:
The most rational course for the Cardinals would be to attribute their shocking elimination to the randomness of a best-of-five series, and try again next season.
If only it were that simple.
The Cardinals are at a crossroads. They cannot bring back the same club and count on better postseason luck in 2010. Too much in their world is fluid.
Left fielder Matt Holliday, third baseman Mark DeRosa and right-hander Joel Pineiro are among their potential free agents.
What he describes is not sole provence of this Cardinals team—it is the dilemma of, if I had to guess, half of the teams that makes the playoffs in any given year. Teams that succeed are filled with uncertain parts, players having career years and then either regressing or asking for contracts commensurate with their new and uncertain talents. Good teams are rarely both good and solid, and even those squads have trouble remaining on top of their games.
Rosenthal's main problem is his appeal to sheer numbers in constructing his argument. Three free agents? Why, that's a lot! In fact Mark DeRosa's subpar half-season with the Cardinals brought their composite third baseman's year-to-date numbers all the way to .229/.292/.369, with a defensive non-value of negative five runs. The Cardinals are losing, to free agency, a set of third basemen who managed to nearly approximate replacement level. That one of them is a name player who should have done better than he did is irrelevant to the team in 2010, especially as it relates to the one in 2009.
Do the Cardinals have an internal option to fill Mark DeRosa's spot when he departs? They do categorically—the idea of replacement level, which may as well have been called the Joe Thurston Line, demands it. Even without taking into account the presence of one David Freese, cheap, superior on offense and defense, unlikely to get into a second consecutive off-season car accident, Mark DeRosa's departure is no skin off the Cardinals' proverbial nose. It would be nice if it was, considering the price they paid, but it isn't.
Teams that struggle in the course of attributing their elimination to randomness and trying again aren't the ones who have big holes to fill in the offseason—they're the ones whose value was divvied up a mile wide and an inch deep, the easier for it to slip just-perceptibly as no one position cries out for an upgrade. The Cardinals stand to gain a win or two by not playing last year's version of Mark DeRosa; that they can do it without signing next year's version of Mark DeRosa is a bonus.
Joel Pineiro and Matt Holliday are more valid concerns; Pineiro was lightning in a bottle, and the Cardinals would be ill-served to try to recreate things by resigning the bottle. But the flukishness of his performance doesn't change the value of it, and the Cardinals find themselves in the welcome but still difficult position of replacing 200 great innings they didn't know they had.
Whatever you think of Jaime Garcia, this probably can't be replaced from within; to approximate Pineiro's value the Cardinals will have to hope they can trade 200 innings of Joel Pineiro and 200 innings of Kyle Lohse and Todd Wellemeyer for 400 innings that are coherently average. It's possible, but it'll be tough; the rotation is one place where the Cardinals will be hard-pressed to improve on 2009.
Matt Holliday is another case of the seasonal whole being less than the last part the Cardinals plugged in; unlike DeRosa he was well above replacement level once he arrived—2.8 wins, above average for an entire season, according to Fangraphs—but he was still relegating two replacement level players to the bench and Pawtucket, respectively.
Rosenthal is right in suggesting that the team has an important offseason ahead, but he's caught up in his own idea of its severity and not quite pegging the real reason it will be so difficult to get the same value out of the same players in 2010. The important thing isn't just the players who won't be around next year—it's that the Cardinals got 400 Cy Young caliber innings out of one pitcher whose injury problems are legendary and another who had never pitched that well before in addition to the ones that will be leaving with the ghost of Christy Mathewson. This is not a team in crisis; it's a team that missed a good opportunity but has the potential, with the emergence of its remaining younger players, for more of them.
That overreaction leads to, and invalidates, the most terrifying part of his article:
Even if both sides are well-intentioned, the odds of the Cardinals keeping Pujols beyond 2011 probably are not good.
Let's say Pujols views Alex Rodriguez's 10-year, $275 million contract as his benchmark, even though it was a free-agent deal signed in a better economy.
Let's say the Cardinals view an eight-year, $160 million deal as more realistic, even though Pujols would start his next deal at the same age that Rodriguez did, 32.
If you were Pujols, how much of a discount would you give?
If you were the Cardinals, would you really be so loath to offer Pujols a contract that just barely tops the one the Cubs are currently paying Alfonso Soriano? If they are, to be honest, they don't deserve Pujols; but all the mechanics to which Rosenthal is gesturing start with the Cardinals being in dire straits from here on out. They are not.
Finally, on an unrelated note, a sportswriter Pet Peeve:
Right-hander Chris Carpenter looked like he had a tired arm in Game 1, according to one rival GM.
I don't doubt the rival GM's honesty or his motives, but this is not Wikipedia; you're allowed to do some original research as a sportswriter. The game was on TV; the pitchf/x numbers are widely available. Did it look to you like he had a tired arm, Ken Rosenthal? You can tell us.
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good, to the point analysis
DeRosa is easily replaced in terms of what he gave the Cards in ‘09. I also suspect the Cubs will now overpay for him.
I, for one, would let Holliday go. Everything indicates he’s looking to break the bank, and I think the Cards would be better served spending the money on an outfielder or 3B with a high OBP to hit #2 and end that revolving door in the lineup. Look at the players Holliday was traded for this year (Wallace, C. Gonzalez, etc.). Is he worth all that and 25 mil a year?
The P-D today uses the figure of 43 mil for both Holliday and Pujols (18 + 25?). I don’t think that will get it done, and you have 38 other roster spots to pay. Pay Albert (does 8 years for 200 mil get it done?) and use the rest on other needs, e.g. the bullpen and a better bench.
by vinniefromjersey on Oct 13, 2009 7:00 AM EDT reply actions
Sacriligious comment
if it costs more than 8 years, $200m to keep Pujols, I’m not sure we shouldn’t just be resigned to him leaving in 2011. Do we REALLY think he’s going to be worth $25m at age 40? 8/160 I’d probably be happy to do. I could also go for fewer years at a higher $ cost (6/150 maybe?).
In any case, Pujols will be back, I can’t see there’s any way they’ll let him leave, and I think any realistic contract is probably going to be pretty much worthwhile. I also don’t necessarily think he’s going to go in with a mercenary attitude to squeeze every last penny out of the club. I think when all’s said and done we’ll be paying him over $20m/yr and he’ll probably be here until he retires (or is damn close to it).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 7:32 AM EDT up reply actions
If you're going to get hung up on Pujol's age 40 season
and how he’ll be over-paid, then I guess you probably should just lobby for him to walk. Considering how much he’s worth right now and will be for the next 4 or 5 years I think his age 40 season is a moot point.
Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
by Tackle Box on Oct 13, 2009 8:29 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
In production, quite likely not. But ...
in terms of ability to put fans in the seats — and fans in the seats go very far toward the financial ability to make moves to keep the team competitive — all you need to do is look back to the final years of Musial, Gibson, etc., to see the benefit of keeping him. “Franchise players” only come along once every couple of generations, and their value to the franchise remains huge even when their skills start to atrophy.
by StanTheManFan on Oct 13, 2009 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Economic impact of Albert
agree with this view that the team won’t look just at on field production to determine Albert’s value to the franchise. Merchandise, ticket sales, concessions and general interest in the Cards will be higher with Albert on the team than without Albert.
That being said, I would favor a front loaded contract so his age 40 season is 60-75% of his peak performance salary (1st year of extension). I doubt this will happen though. And fix the elbow first.
It's been proven here (last offseason maybe?)
that backloaded contracts are much more favorable to the team than they are to the player.
Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
that's it.
even when it’s been explained to me multiple times, i still can’t remember it.
Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
Think about it this way:
A dollar today in my hand is worth more than a dollar in my hand a year from now.
Which would you rather have: $250 check in your wallet now, or a $250 check that you can cash in Oct. 2010? Obviously, the money now is preferable. What if the Oct 10 check was made out for $275? Or $300? At some point, you would rather have the check you can cash a year from now, but the face value of that check has to be higher to make up for payment being a year in the future.
Applied to contracts, this means that all contracts are not created equal, even if total years and total pay is the same. In the extremes, it is most beneficial for the team to pay a lump sum on the last day of the contract; it is best for the player to be paid completely up front.
So by back-loading contracts, the team has more capital available in the present to play with/invest.
Free Milton
Another extension of this idea:
Performance vs. Contract. We typically see arguments to the effect that “if Player X produces Y WAR over his contract, he will justify his contract of $Z.” While this may be generically true (and certainly is the easiest way to think about it) the timing of his payments and performance do matter.
For instance, if we are thinking about signing Player A who has projected WARs of 2.0, 3.0, and 5.0 for the next three seasons, he is not nearly as valuable as a player who has projected WARs of 5.0, 3.0, and 2.0. WAR, like money, is more valuable today than it is in the future (which is why it sometimes make sense to trade prospects for performance now).
Free Milton
Does this concept take inflation into account, or is it still true if you ignore inflation?
I mean, is the value of having x amount of money now higher than x amount later no matter what? If there was no inflation, would money now still be more valuable? I’m assuming that the answer is yes but I’ve never really been sure.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
It is still true if you ignore inflation
Because I could invest a dollar today (even risk-free – like 1-year US Gov’t t-bills) and get some non-zero return.
Now, depending on risk profiles, required rates of return are very different across people and organizations. But assuming any period of time that is non-deflationary, a discount rate must be applied to any future payment to get its true present value.
Free Milton
I read on Cots or somewhere else
that Pujols original contract has deferred money and was discounted so the “final” amount was really around 90 million to the club. I don’t know what these used as the hurdle rate and too lazy to figure it out but even if this is close to correct you can see how backloading a contract is almost always better for the club.
I wonder why agents don’t point this out to their guys. I remember Edmonds the other night when he was interviewed on TV (Mickey Mouse!) how he said the Cards owed him for the next 10 years or so. Wait till inflation kicks in Jimmy.
by Tom_Lawless_Bat_Flip on Oct 14, 2009 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions
It just becomes even more lopsided with inflation included,
because an eye-popping figure like 25M per season this year could be the going rate for star players in less than ten seasons.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
inflation calculator site
for those who want to look at historical data, www.inflationdata.com has information and a calculator for determining inflation between two dates. Looking back 5 years, the cumulative inflation rate as of Aug 09 is 13.66% or 2.73% per year.
net present value of two scenarios are equal
was a premise that I failed to outline in the suggested front loading of contracts. I fully agree if the years and total contract value are equal, back loading can only help the team (unless their investment strategy really sucks, like the Mets and Madoff).
Most of the premier free agents sign contracts where the first few years are their prime production years. If the two sides negotiate a 6 yr contract with a npv of $100 mm, wouldn’t it make more sense to structure it with more cash in earlier years to alleviate the drag on overall payroll as the player ages and becomes less productive?
In terms of
“Annual Value per Dollar”, yes, this makes sense. In terms of long term payroll and investment strategy, i.e. the “business of baseball”, it doesn’t, for the NPV assertions constructed above.
Front loading would make the player easier to move in the latter years of his contract as well, but the issue here is that most of these giant deals come with no-trade protection, or at least limited no-trade protection anyway.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I almost made it through a day
without being reminded of Lohse’s full no trade.
by Tom_Lawless_Bat_Flip on Oct 14, 2009 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions
wanna know what is funny
APu only has a limited no trade
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
this argument isn't supported by the evidence
“franchise players” do not put butts in the seats. Winning puts butts in the seats. People are not going to show up at the ballpark and turn on FSNMW to watch a 90 loss team just b/c Albert Pujols was once the greatest player in the game. If the team can remain competitive around him, paying him a fortune makes sense. If it can’t, it just doesn’t.
this
no one attended rams games last year to cheer on future hall of fame left tackle and former Pro Bowler WR.
Former pro-bowler WR
would be like thinking people come to see Ludwick. And nobody cares about a left tackle, HOF worthy or not.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
If the team can remain competitive around him, paying him a fortune makes sense. If it can’t, it just doesn’t.
Having a franchise level player in the mix goes a long way to making the team more competitive though. I don’t think that the Cardinals are ever going to become the Pirates, for example. I do believe that they are always going to be competitive within the NL Central and won’t be eliminated by the All-Star break too many times.
The Rams comparison is a poor one. The Rams have absolutely no history in the town of St. Louis, and St. Louis has always been a baseball town, which is why the original Cardinals left the city 25 years ago.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
that & they were the single worst team in the no fun league
the more things change, the more they stay the same
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
True ...
the Rams don’t have an history in St. Louis, but the Big Red left town because the owner had no committment to winning. He wanted to demand a 75,000 seat stadium without any evidence that he wanted to put a winning team on the field. He maintained that same business plan in Arizona, and only now that his son has taken over have the Cardinals started to show signs of NFL respectability.
I get a little aggravated at the constant attitude that St. Louis won’t support professional football. It would be terrific to see how St. Louis would support an organization that didn’t look like a family on the Jerry Springer show.
The problem with this logic
is that they had trouble selling out games back when “The Greatest Show on Turf” was in town. The years they went to the Super Bowl they didn’t have consecutive sellouts. I went to the Buffalo – St. Louis game last year with a Bills fan and both of us were extremely disappointed in the lack of fan support for the Rams during that game, both in attendance and attitude at the stadium itself. I’m a Vikings fan, and I’ve yet to be at a Vikings game (even pre-season in the Mike Tice era) where the Metrodome wasn’t rocking, and they can’t get a stadium built either.
I think the ownership is partly to blame, but Carolina fans show up to watch Jake Delhomme play quarterback poorly, Bears fans show up even though they haven’t had a All-Pro QB since Jim McMahon. The Rams had back-to-back Super Bowl teams and couldn’t draw back-to-back sellouts in either of those years. That’s a fanbase problem, not an ownership problem.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Don't confuse "butts in seats" with "tickets sold".
Most of the seats in the Dome are sold year in and year out (notice they’ve yet to go the Raiders or Jaguars route of covering sections of seats to reduce the number of seats they have to sell). The reason they’ve had a hard time with getting Rams fans butts in the seats is because of the product on the field and the mess that was the front office.
The fans are there, they just haven’t had a good reason (in a shitty economy, espeically now) to justify going to the games as opposed to selling their seats to rival fans or simply eating the ticket and saving the money they’d spend on parking, gas, food, beer, etc.
It won’t take much for the fans to come back into the Dome. Last year, when the team beat Washington, they immediately sold out their next home game when they hadn’t done so for a while.
The fans are there and most of the tickets are in hand, they just need a little proof things are improving to go spend the extra cash in the building.
Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
I talking specifically about
tickets sold. In 1999 and 2000, they didn’t have back to back sellouts in either of those years, and the stadium is not that big. The mark of a devoted fan base is a fan base that comes to games regardless of how good the team is — the Rams don’t have the kind of fan base. The Steelers, Packers, Bears, Giants, Vikings, etc. all have fan bases like that. It helps that those teams have been fairly successful over time too, but part of the reason they are successful is that they have a fan base that follows the team good or bad.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Those teams you cite have amazing histories in their cities.
Shit, the Bears have been in Chicago since 1921, the Packers since 1919 (and are owned by the city), the Steelers since 1933, the Giants since 1925, and the Vikings are the young one being in the Twin Cities since 1961 (btw, the Vikings have been rumored to be looking to move from Minneapolis for more than a few years).
The Rams? Since 1995.
This is like comparing apples to oranges.
But, I will say that winning the SuperBowl actually hurt the Rams develop fan loyalty. Well, the way their history in St. Louis has unfolded has hurt them.
When they came to St. Louis, they had a ton of fan support because the team was new. Unfortunately, they sucked for about 5 years (never making the playoffs) and fan support started to dwindle. Then, BOOM!, they win the SuperBowl which gets everyone in Eastern Missouri and Southern Illinois (as well as parts of Arkansas and other states) to jump on board. This lasted about 3 or 4 years until disaster after disaster started happening which drove away the "bandwagoners from the SuperBowl years (3 year span).
They’ve never had any sustained success to build upon and when they did, it was over the top. They went from the worst team in the 90s to the best team for the first 3 years of the 2000s back to the worst team with a soap opera developing in the front office that would make the writers of general hospital envious.
What happened in those 3 years of success (major success) actually spoiled a lot of the fans who weren’t necessarily true die hard fans. You often hear athletes, who go to the playoffs in their first 2 or 3 years of being professionals, “It never occurred to me it was even a possibility we wouldn’t make the playoffs”.
It’s the same way with a lot of the fans. So many, jumped on board late in ‘99 and rode the wave for 3 years thinking the Rams would be dominant for ever. Well, it didn’t happen. The team was a house of cards and when it came crashing down, it all came down.
Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
Ok then
The team they played in the 1999 Super Bowl has been in Tennessee about as long as the Rams have been in St. Louis, yet that team consistently sells out games.
Carolina went from expansion franchise to playoff contender about as fast as St. Louis did, then spent some years in purgatory before becoming relevant again — they also consistently sell out games.
We’re talking about 8 games a year, not 81 for baseball, not 41 for hockey. Eight. EIGHT GAMES A YEAR. You should get at least four sellouts a season in the NFL. If your fanbase gives a rat shit about your team you should be able to get at LEAST that, yet the Rams couldn’t do it when they were one of the best teams in the league.
St. Louis didn’t support the football Cardinals franchise, and they haven’t supported the Rams franchise near as well as they could. Do I think that Checkett’s could help? Yes, I do, because the current front office has run them into the ground. Replace the front office people, keep Spagnuolo as head coach, and they might have a shot at turning this thing around.
I still think that the best thing that could happen is for some billionaire to build his own stadium in southern California and move the Rams there.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Poor comparison.
First, you can’t compare the Vikings fan base to the Rams fan base. The Rams simply haven’t been in St. Louis long enough for that kind of discussion compared to the Vikings in Minneapolis.
Second, the Rams have the uneviable task of having to attone not only for their own organizational sins, but also the sins of the previous team that broke our hearts.
This town tried to connect with the Big Red in a time when that kind of loyalty could be generated, but the owner intentionally broke our collective hearts repeatedly by intentionally not fielding a worthwhile product. Now, despite the much bally-hooed popularity of the NFL, it is virtually impossible to develop that kind of loyalty from a fan base because the teams price the average fan from experiencing the games in person. The game is marketed to television moguls and corporate customer entertainment.
Despite all of that, I maintain loyalty to both the Rams and Chiefs with the same fervor that I do for the Blues and Cardinals; and I still keep a heartbroken longing to see the team that left us do well. I don’t get to too many games for any of the teams because all professional sports ticket prices have become disproportionate to the value difference between watching it on television and seeing it in person. However, I still want to see all of them be extremely successful, and I follow them exhaustively.
The only issue that has caused me to wane in interest wrt the Rams, was the voice mail that Samir Sullemain left on Miklasz’s phone threatening throat slashing. The fact that the Rams didn’t fire him on the spot was unbelievable and disheartening. They still haven’t, and I hold out hope that the new ownership group will clean house of this trash.
Mark McGwire would like to have a word with you.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
Ryne Sandberg, Andre Dawson, and Sammy Sosa would as well
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Cal Ripken example
The O’s enjoyed favorable attendance in Cal’s last few years (3.4 million-3.1 million 1999-2001) while finishing under .500 and in fourth place in the AL East. The year he retired, attendance at Camden Yards dropped 13% and remained roughly at that level for the next four years.
Was Cal the only reason? No, of course not, but he did contribute to the draw.
But
what would the O’s have drawn had they been free of Ripken’s contract and reinvested that salary into the players needed to contend for the postseason? I think that’s the real comparison here, right?
did they not have that money to spend the year after he retired?
Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
The O's have tried
many free agents since Cal retired and have not been very successful in either pursuing the right ones or signing any who can turn the team around. Tejeda was the most successful signing for the 2004 season and attendance/interest increased with a 3rd place finish (and only 6 games under .500) but was still 15% below the level it was when Cal was playing the team was losing.
Baltimore's problem
is that they don’t have a defined organizational strategy like Tampa does, and that’s what you have to have in order to compete in the AL East. If Baltimore had Tampa’s strategy with it’s payroll, revenue, and fanbase, it would be a lot more successful franchise — but don’t expect Peter Angelos to change anything soon, he’s playing with house money at this point.
It appears that they may be moving towards a more farm based, draft-and-develop strategy in the last couple of years, but then they might blow it all up and go shopping this year or next year. I think they could be on the cusp of developing some really good talent from their farm system (Reimold, Wieters, etc.) and from smart trades the past couple of years (the Tejada deal, the Bedard deal)
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Worth $25M at age 40?
Of course not. There’s maybe only two or three position players in the history of the game who were worth that much in their age 40 seasons. Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron (inflation adjusted, obviously), and someone that I’m surely missing because of the lack of time needed to research it.
For instance, you would have to be worth around 6.5 WAR to be worth $25M on the free agent market, and last year there were two players over the age of 36 to hit that mark: Chipper Jones (7.6) and Manny Ramirez (6.7). Neither of those guys repeated that performance this year, Jones due to injury, and Manny due to his suspension, which also might explain his performance last year (illegal substance induced). If we’re getting hung up on his age 40 season, we should just let him walk.
Now, say we pay him 8Y$200M, and let’s also assume that he will be worth at least 7.7 WAR in the first 5 years of that deal (that’s his lowest WAR total in the past 6 seasons, so he’s probably going to be worth more than that). So after the first 5 seasons, he’ll be worth around $173M in market value ($4.5M * 7.7WAR * 5YEARS). He basically only has to be worth $25M over the last three seasons of the contract to make it a fair deal for the club. I’d venture to say he’ll be worth that much, and probably more. The team will have the contract insured in case he gets injured, so that’s really not going to play into how much his actual value will be worth over that time period should he go down with injury.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
The factor is that we don't know the value of a win in dollars when Pujols is 40 years old
It is around $4M now it could be $6M than
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 13, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
And probably will be around that high.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Or it might be less
as more and more teams adopt the draft and develop strategy that we’ve seen in recent years, and only the prime free agents (the top half of the Type A bracket) get big $ deals while the lesser FA have to accept lower than average amounts for lesser years. We simply don’t know.
FWIW, even if the price of 1 WAR on the FA market jumps to 6M by 2020, it’s even more likely that he’d be worth a $200M contract over an 8 year span. In the past 8 seasons he’s been worth just over 63 WAR, which would equate to $283.5M worth of value over that same time period. Obviously, we’d like to do better than break even on the contract, but if the price of FA WAR goes up, that only makes it easier for Pujols to hit that in the last few years of his contract — he’d only have to be worth 4.5 WAR his last season to be worth $25M at $6M per WAR, vs. 5.5 WAR to be worth the same at $4.5 per WAR.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Breaking even
If we can break even on Pujols’ contract, and we get to witness his 3,000th hit, 700th HR, multiple MVPs, and the farewell tour in his final year, I would consider it one of the best signings in our history. As a fan, of course.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I totally agree with you
but in terms of the business side, we don’t want to be looking to simply “break even” on every contract that we ink with players. Only a handful of teams can afford to pay market rates of WAR to build winning ballclubs, the rest of the clubs have to either be great negotiators to get more value per dollar of free agents, or great developers of young talent coupled with a few break even free agent contracts. Doing both of those things well would lead to sustained success for a very long period of time. Unfortunately, doing both of those things well also probably demands that no player is ever given the “franchise” treatment, because aging free agents on long term contracts tend to be worth a lot less than the $ value of their deal at the end of the contract. I don’t think that will be the case with Albert, however.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
As a general rule, I absolutely agree.
Obviously, this is a special case, a contract that has so much involved in it than the mere weighings of value and cost. We’re talking about our generation’s Musial and a franchise that makes a point of celebrating its legends. Because of this, Cardinal Nation expects that its all-time greats will be retained and celebrated. To let Pujols walk would run contrary to the culture of Cardinal fans and it would be very detrimental to the organization.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
honestly as a fan
i really do want to win it all every year, but im a sucker for players that show loyalty to the team and organization. as much as i hated how bad edmonds was playing i wish he wouldve retired a Card, there are few players that just need to stay with one club because they lose their identity to me once they leave, and the fairwell tours are so much better in st louis to me then anywhere else case in point was Ozzie Smith, just wasnt nearly the player when he retired but he retired a cardinal
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
I take issue with your last point...
ase in point was Ozzie Smith, just wasnt nearly the player when he retired but he retired a cardinal
Ozzie got forced out by TLR and the new front office, who wanted to move in a different direction. Had he been able to catch on with someone else, a la Edmonds, I’m pretty sure that he would have done that. It was a very similar situation to the Favre/Packers drama, with the exception that Ozzie wanted to play and got himself in great shape, only to find out that he wasn’t wanted. This really caused a rift between he and LaRussa, which also led to Tony kicking him out of the clubhouse later on, saying he was a “distraction”.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
did not know that either
damn me being nieve as a child, and totally on the F TLR bandwagon now
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
FWIW
You can also argue that Ozzie’s last year of his career was as good as it was because TLR spotted him and put him in situations where he was more likely to succeed.
At age 41, Ozzie was coming off of an injury-riddled 199/282/244 season and hadn’t played 150 or games in a season for the past four seasons.
Strangely, he had developed an odd reverse platoon split that left him almost helpless against lefties. To his credit, TLR must have noticed that, because only 30 of the Wizard’s 261 PAs that year were against port-siders.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 13, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Do switch hitters have "platoon splits" in the traditional sense?
I know he started out as a righthanded hitter, so it would seem odd to me that he would struggle so against lefties.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
when you look at the rest of his career
the late career splits seems to be pretty odd.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Good catch
I knew as soon as I posted that was incorrectly put. And FWIW, the apparent inability to hit lefties was a small sample size, but one that seemed persistent, at least for the last two seasons.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 13, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Easier
I suppose it is easier for an aging ballplayer to slap the ball to the opposite field than to try to hit the ball from the righthanded side of the plate.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I'm not going to argue about his departure
he really wasn’t a good baseball player anymore, but he didn’t leave under his own auspices either. I don’t fault the organization for wanting to move in a different direction, it was just the way it was handled.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Point well taken. . .
i just don’t know that there can be any true winners and losers in a clash of egos as epic as TLR vs. the Wizard.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 13, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Rosenthal is ridiculous
I can’t believe any sports writer worth their salt actually believes the Cardinals would be dumb enough to not resign Pujols. There would be a riot in St. Louis.
by Mulliganstew on Oct 13, 2009 7:10 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
A similarly cool shot
The pitcher in the background is Lilly, but ignore that for a sec. That’s a really cool picture.
I have one @ home
that’s Scotty Ro in Spring training. He fouled one off in the cage and the ball bee-lined for the camera. One of my favorite baseball photos. I will post it this evening.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
for one am not worried about Pujols
I really think that Albert could be signed to a 8y 240m deal. with differed money. I think he will go for it. Pay him say 20-25 mill a year and differ the rest.
DeRosa. I would resign him at a reduced price. I know wrist injuries are hard for a hitter to come back from, but I like him on the bench.
Glaus. I would bet that he is let go, but I would consider a one year insentive deal.
Holliday. Inspite is “Buckner” I want him back.
Pineirio. Will get a big payday somewhere else. So it was nice but SEE YA!
Smoltz.. Why not a one year deal.
Smoltz.. Why not a one year deal.So it looks like this:
Smoltz.. Why not a one year deal.So it looks like this:Holliday
Ramus
Ludwick
Craig
DeRosa*
Smoltz.. Why not a one year deal.So it looks like this:Holliday
Ramus
Ludwick
Craig
DeRosa*Glaus*
Ryan
Schumaker
Pujols
Lugo
Fresse
Smoltz.. Why not a one year deal.So it looks like this:Holliday
Ramus
Ludwick
Craig
DeRosa*Glaus*
Ryan
Schumaker
Pujols
Lugo
FresseCarpenter
Wainright
Lohse
Smoltz
Garcia
Smoltz.. Why not a one year deal.So it looks like this:Holliday
Ramus
Ludwick
Craig
DeRosa*Glaus*
Ryan
Schumaker
Pujols
Lugo
FresseCarpenter
Wainright
Lohse
Smoltz
GarciaThat is not a bad team. I think it repeats. I didn’t fill out the pen, but I would expect to be the same. There will be no money for a closer.
Smoltz.. Why not a one year deal.So it looks like this:Holliday
Ramus
Ludwick
Craig
DeRosa*Glaus*
Ryan
Schumaker
Pujols
Lugo
FresseCarpenter
Wainright
Lohse
Smoltz
GarciaThat is not a bad team. I think it repeats. I didn’t fill out the pen, but I would expect to be the same. There will be no money for a closer.* If Glaus and/or DeRosa do not return. Then Freese plays third. Tyler Green makes the team. Schumaker can go back to the outfield. Lugo plays second. Craig and can player third as well, and Mather may get another shot. There is alot to look forward to.
8 yrs/240m
bletch. That would be an awful contract, an albatross, even for Albert f’in Pujols.
He needs to be putting up something like 7 WAR/yr CONSISTENTLY (bearing in mind he’ll probably miss a chunk of a season at some point for elbow surgery, and there’s an above-zero chance that that surgery might go wrong and leave him a much lesser player) until he is FORTY YEARS OLD for that contract to just about break even. Sure, he’s an 8-win player now, but this contract really isn’t factoring much (if any) reduction in his output (or fitness) as he enters his late 30s. Is that really realistic?
I love Albert and he IS the Cardinals, but if he’s wanting 8yrs/240m, well, enjoy Boston, I guess. A smart GM should be able to replicate Pujol’s production right now with $30m/yr in free agent spending, and should be able to dramatically exceed it in 2016, I’d have thought.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 7:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah...
$30M/year is just too much…and I honestly don’t see Pujols requiring it.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Oct 13, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
ditto
would pujols hamstring the org like that? his stated goal is to win. he is the best player in the game and should be paid the most except that doesn’t apply when you look at what irrational contracts are out there.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I am not saying to sign or not sign
Albert Pujols, (or how much to pay) but consider this) Pujols has played as “hard a’ nine” in his 20’s as I have ever seen a player play and that goes back to Williams, Di Maggio and Musial.
I have seen SOME wear and tear on his body. I could be wrong, but I see a good possibility of this coming into play in a few years. In other words I can’t see his thirties being nearly as productive as his 20’s and with a lot less playing time past 35.
I would love to see Pujols remain a Cardinal all his playing days but with the way some teams are able to throw money around these days that might not be practical and I would hate to see the team damaged by a bad contract.
I like Pujols as much as anyone here, but I was a Cardinal fan before Pujols and I will be one after. Good things come and go.
Need top of the order bats
I’m all for keeping Holliday if it is (mostly) reasonable. My issue with the offense, though, is that there just isn’t a consistent threat IN FRONT of Albert to create RBI situation. This team really lacks a professional lead-off hitter and a solid #2 hitter. TLR did the whole “pitcher hits 8” thing to try to give Albert more RBI chances – it didn’t really work out with great benefit. That said, the team will need another starter, a real 2nd baseman, one or two lock-down bullpen guys, and a hitting coach. If Holliday goes elsewhere, the team also needs an outfielder to hit in the 4 slot.
A few days of reflection, and I’m not feeling awful about the season. Heck, the Red Sox got swept, the Twins never really had a chance, and the Rockies broke hearts as bad as the Cardinals in Game 2.
Honi soit qui mal y pense.
i have some concerns, actually.
even with an above average tail end of the season, lugo was only a little above replacement with the cards. he has a dire UZR at 2b: 14. If that’s not a UZR blip - and his even worse numbers at SS suggest not — we can look forward to replacement level 2b from lugo.
replacement level is not awful, but it’s not what I’m hoping for. you can’t argue with lugo’s price, but his actual value is pretty minimal. i’m not sure that he’s much different from jarrett hoffpauir.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
bah.
he has a dire UZR at 2b: -14.
If that’s not a UZR blip – and his even worse numbers at SS suggest not
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
It's a UZR blip
That’d be like looking at like a month’s worth of offensive stats.
Plus Oquendo can sprinkle his magic pixie dust on him.
Not afraid to nitpick
his 2b numbers could be a blip on their own.
my concern is that his SS numbers are also pretty poor.
maybe he has a bounce back — maybe he’s a -5 UZR/150 2b in 2010, in which case he’s very valuable.
hooray pixie dust.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Everyone knows it's Pegacorns guys.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
He is so bad defensively
It makes Skippy look downright vacuumish.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Lugo is fine as long as he gets the ball out of his glove
I have never seen a player do everything else adequately or very well except for one thing.
Then shockingly in his last appearance he did just that. So I have an inkling of hope.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I don't want to contemplate that, thanks.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
VEP - do you have an article in the THT Annual this year?
Just curious if I should be purchasing
Free Milton
if Pujols
walks im seriously done being a Cards fan, and a baseball fan. to me player salaries have been driven up way to much by the yankees and redsox, and i would call for a cap finally.
After the playoffs im not completely sold on Holliday anymore that was def not something that made me say resign resign. and I almost get the suspicion that he is looking for the most money out there, not necassarily the best situation to be in. (boras client)
DeRo let him get an overpaid contract somewhere else, internal options right now are cheaper and better in my opinion, (craig, freese, mather). assuming mather is healthy.
Pinata, let him walk im willing to lay down my life savings he does not come close to repeating his 09 performance, not to mention he is going to want something ridiculous around 10-15 mil after his season he had.
I would rather see the cards pick someone up like lackey for that amount.
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
Hmm..
The argument for a salary cap is one thing…but would you really walk away from baseball and the Cards forever because one player left? I mean of course we all love Albert and would be heartbroken if he left, but its pretty easy to see why our interests as fans and his interests as an individual might not be in perfect harmony.
And you say you are “no longer” completely sold on Holliday after the playoffs, meaning you were at one point. 12 ABs (one of which was a home run) and one error is enough to change your mind? Seems extreme.
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 13, 2009 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
that error
was freakin huge, and honestly its kinda just been his attitude that I have seen, Its an I dont know type of thing with him almost doesnt feel like he wants to be in St louis
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
He made one awful play
Everyone does. It was just unlucky that it came at the worst possible moment.
“its an I don’t know type of thing with him almost doesn’t feel like he wants to be in St. Louis” – um, okay.
I don’t doubt that he wants the money too, but he certainly doesn’t have an attitude that he doesn’t want to remain a Cardinal.
The situation in St. Louis certainly fits into Holliday’s Field of Dreams at this point. "I’ve found that playing on winning teams is the only way to play," Holliday said. "It just makes the game a whole lot more fun and more enjoyable. I feel like I become a better player, because there are lot more things I feel I can do that can help the team win, instead of playing on a team that is basically purely about numbers and self-gratification. I don’t enjoy that atmosphere in baseball."
“It’s been a lot of fun,” Holliday said. "I’ve enjoyed getting to know a lot of these guys. I’ve found a lot of them with similar intensity for the game that I have. “Everybody gets here early, and guys work really hard. It’s been a lot of fun to play important games for a team that’s got a chance to do something special.”
It’s been a lot of fun lately. Obviously winning games is the most important thing. I was playing well before the trade so it was perfect timing. I was comfortable swinging the bat since the first day I got here so everything was just perfect timing, both personally and professionally.
Free Milton
never read that before changes an opinion
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
I'd counter with my fanpost
There’s nothing there about how hard he’s working. It’s all about how nice St. Louis is to him. He just feeeeels like the pie makes him better. There was nothing about the basic things like learning the caroms off his place of business aka the left field of Busch Stadium; he was still playing it wrong a month into his stint.
I wouldn’t have noticed it without the contrast of both Smoltz and DeRosa’s comments, both of whom were hard on themselves even when they were doing well.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Good point
Holliday doesn’t come off as wanting to explicitly play somewhere else in 2010, but he also avoids explicitly saying he wants to return to StL. He’s taking the middle road.
Smoltz had supposedly walked around the clubhouse on Sunday saying farewells and telling guys he’s hoping he’s back next year (sorry can’t find the quote), just to view in contract to Holliday’s less-than-committal comments.
"Nothing in life is certain but death, taxes, and Albert Pujols batting .300/30/100."
Smoltz is having a typical midlife crisis
plunking him in the middle of his Number One Fan Club plus the chance to compete is probably priceless to him. Tain’t nothing wrong with that.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Midlife or End of Career?
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he signed with two competing clubs that were likely heading to October. I think Smoltz wants one more ring before he hangs up his spikes.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
someone pointed out that Pettitte just tied him for post-s. wins
He’ll want a shot at topping that.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
i think bringing him back is almost as important as bringing Lego back
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
meh
Holliday doesn’t come off as wanting to explicitly play somewhere else in 2010, but he also avoids explicitly saying he wants to return to StL. He’s-taking the middle road.- negotiating.
fixed.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
I get where he's coming from...
I won’t boycott the team, and if Pujols leaves because some other team offers him over $27M/year I won’t be mad at the Cardinals. If he signs somewhere else for less than $27M per year, and the Cards offer $25M/year I’ll be mad at Pujols. If he signs somewhere else and the Cards don’t offer at least $25M/year I’ll be mad at the team.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Oct 13, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Pujols
is very much a once in a lifetime grab and you dont let that go, not for anything, what he does for the team, the fans, and charity you just dont let that go
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
A line has to be drawn somewhere...
and for me it’s around $27M/year. Fortunately I think AP will be very reasonable in his demands.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
PERSONALLY
if pujols wants to win and stay with the cards he doesnt sign for more then 20-23/yr to resign Holligay, or Jason Bay
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
there are no lines for Albert Pujols, there are no boxes that he fits in
you give the mang whatever he wants & you thank the good Lord you are lucky enough to employ him
if he wants the Arch painted pink, you paint that mother pink
if he wants Busch III renamed to The House Where Mang Destroys Pitchers, you rename that mother
if he wants Forest Park renamed Mang Park, you rename that mother
if he wants the Muny & Fox Theater renamed to the Mangy & Mang Theater, you rename those mothers
if he wants Lambert renamed Mangbert, you renamed that mother
if he wants the Metrolink to be called Manglink, you rename that mother
if he want the Mississippi renamed the Mangippi, we got a new name for the river
if he wants toasted ravioli & ooey gooey butter cake renamed to toasted mangioli & ooey gooey mang cake, guess what, you rename those mothers
if he wants DeRo around because he likes to hug him & makes him laugh, you hire him to not play 3rd or OF, but as his official post game huger & comedian
if he wants Backe as his own personal punching bag, you string that mother up & pray for his soul
if he wants Joe Strauss stung up from the Arch & used as his own personal Pinata, bye bye Joe
if he wants the phrase
Albert Pujols Is Ridiculousto be the new motto of Missouri, guess what? we’ve got a new motto
my point is, it’s Albert F’in Pujols. you do whatever it takes, no matter how ridiculous it may sound or financially unwise it may seem to be, you do it. you just do it.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 13, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 12 recs
ridiculous? financiall unwise? some of those sound downwright fun.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
*financially
also, *downright. [ugh.]
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Manglink.....
next stop…..Mangstew…..doors opening to my right.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
ooey gooey mang cake
That’s just worth putting up on its own.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I'll help string up Strauss!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
we need a java based
punch strauss game.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
if i could put Strass's face on this i would
HFS! i just noticed that’s green!
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Oct 13, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Don't player salaries make up a lesser share of industry profits than most industries in the U.S.?
I thought I read that somewhere.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
One picture that represents the entire Rams season so far
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 13, 2009 9:21 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
speaking of handegg
I started both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams last night, and I was playing a team that had the Jets defense in fantasy league. plus I had Fitzgerald on my team… the other team got their ass handed to them
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 13, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
i picked up
miles austin friday and started him, also had fitzgerald starting as well
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
BAHAHAHAHA
sad and true…
Looking forward to Cardinals baseball in 2010!
Feel free to follow me on Twitter: @zoomzoomj88
looks like the vikings player is enjoying it too
I'm like a polygon, I'm edgy.
"OHHHHH!!!!!!! IT TASTES. SO. GOOD!!!!!!!!!!"
-BOOOOOOOOG
Hate Ken Rosenthal...
As their profile increases, the laziness sets in. I’ve got a $50 bill in a chink in the chimney that says he never did speak to any such GM.
MB for LF in 2010!
my 2 cents (all i can afford in this economy)
my monday meeting with myself reveals:
arb for rosy, don’t think it really a difference maker if he comes back or not. we have a wide range of choices for infielders.
holliday—arb here too. i liked him in colorado, but he has bulked up and is not as good a defender as he was and with new pitching, i think we’ll see more flyballs next year and defense may be at least a small issue in left. he had a great start here, but after that, he became the oakland guy again in BA (barely edged luddy in total homers too). bay for less and willingham for 1/2 price with the money going to pitching (valverde?). we really need two more good arms, starter and reliever, and that is more important. with a real closer, we’d likely still be playing and we got little from holliday (i know he homered once). honestly believe albert would be happier with him gone.
pinata—tough one here. which joel is he? this is a price dependent decision. like ludwick, he is neither 2008 or 2009, but somewhere in between.
welly and rick-dick are probably gone, and probably best for them, though i do think welly might come back on a minor league deal as a reliever. dd may be a good coach, but welly was a reliever everywhere else and i think there is a reason for that beyond how hard be can throw.
have to let glaus go w/o arb (risking a lot of money), but i would not put arb as a terrible mistake—no worse than signing k greene. (with a good deal and some recovery he would be a good trade candidate). helath aside, which would you rather have, 08 glaus or 09 holliday in 2010 (salary included)?
the thurston decision will be interesting because he hits left handed and all our other internal options are RH.
i look for good things from freese, craig, and mather next year (less excited by t. greene) and we have lugo for free. we will need one pitcher for the rotation. garcia is a good possibility, but is he good for even 150 innings? i’d love to have smoltz, but i doubt he is 150 innings either. i think he would help set the tone for young guys, regardless of whether they are pitchers. gettin sentimental i guess.
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
edited...
the thurston decision will be interesting because he hits is left handed and all our other internal options are RH.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on Oct 13, 2009 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
edited...
the thurston decision will be interesting will be terrible because he isleft handed and all our other internal options are RH.
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Oct 13, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
oh no
wit an entire off-season to scrounge around and scour the world, i would hope thurston could be replaced, even if the search is limited to LH bats.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
We need two pitchers for the rotation, as long as Carpenter stays healthy
which is a big “if”. Waino, Carp, Lohse, that’s it at the moment. Whether we go internal (Boggs, Garcia, Hawksworth?) or external, we’ve still got two spots to fill.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
We'll have to do both.
And I’m okay with signing two FAs and letting them and the farmhands duke it out. I really hope Boggs becomes a member of the Opening Day bullpen, though.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I'm pretty sure what Rosenthal did there with contract numbers fits the technical definition of "begging the question"
He sets up an argument by giving a hypothetical, i.e. that the Cardinals will offer Pujols a contract of 8 years, 160 million dollars. He then goes on to imply that Albert will probably opt to go for something more like Alex Rodriguez’s contract with the Yankees instead. Because why would Albert take 8 years, 160 mil when he can get 10 years, 275 mil? Duh! He’d be an idiot not to, right?
Unfortunately, when you suppose something for the sake of argument that isn’t actually true (the contract the Cards are “offering” Pujols, and that the Yankees will duplicate A-Rod’s contract for Albert) and then rely on these hypotheticals to support your argument, you’re begging the question (again, I think. At the very least it’s similar, because his conclusion is very similar to and relies on an assumed premise).
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Most definitely agree with this.
The Yankees have Tex, so why would they be bidding on Pujols in 2 years in the first place? He can’t play anywhere but 1B, and are you going to tell each of those guys that they’re only going to play the field half the time? Good luck with that Brian Cashman.
The teams that worry me with Albert, in decreasing order, are the Cubs, Mets, Angels, and Red Sox. I don’t know what the Rickett’s plan is yet with the Cubs, but they could look to dump Derrek Lee in the last year of his deal and make a move for Albert if he becomes a free agent, which would be the worst of all bad outcomes as a Cardinal fan. The Mets will have a hole there that they probably aren’t going to fill prior to 2011, so they’ll be in the running and will have the payroll flexibility at that time to go hard after Albert. The Angels will be players, as they will have shed both the Matthews and Guerrero contracts by that time, and will have money to burn. The Red Sox don’t worry me as much, simply because they seem to be very wary of signing anyone to deals longer than 4-5 years, which is smart, and I think that Albert is going to want a longer contract than that. Boston seems to be the team that is following the draft, develop, and trade strategy the best out of any of the contending teams in either league. They have drafted and developed a good portion of the players on their roster the past couple of years, and have dealt other players smartly to acquire needed pieces, like Victor Martinez this year, Bay last year (without the minor leaguers that deal doesn’t work), and Beckett some years ago, even though that trade has pretty much been a wash what with Hanley becoming a franchise player in Florida.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
What is Kendry Morales' main position/position going forward?
Would they move him back to the outfield? I guess he is young and can probably handle it. And it would certainly make sense to put him in left or right to make room for Pujols.
I think you make a lot of sense here. I just don’t see even the Yankees doing something like signing Pujols when they already have Tex.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
UZR has no real data on him as an outfielder
But I think he could man RF and be pretty decent there. He’s a little above average as a 1B according the UZR data for this year (+4.4), but Albert’s bat would certainly trump his, even though he had a monster year this year. I would guess that Morales is not quite as good as he showed this year and that he’s more of a .360-.370 wOBA guy going forward.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Ah
Yeah, I have to agree with you. They’d be silly to pass on Albert Pujols because of Kendry Morales. I also didn’t realize his BB% was so low, his BABIP, etc. He should be a useful player, but probably not somebody to plug into 1B and say there’s no reason to go after Albert.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Morales
will also be in his last year of arb in 2012, so he’s probably not a long term solution for them at 1B either.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
But,
wouldn’t Morales be more of a long-term solution than Pujols? In 2012, wouldn’t you rather have the younger Morales for 4 years than the aging Pujols for 10 years? I guess by the end of 2011, the Angels will have their answer…
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
That all depends on 2 things:
- Do you think Kendry Morales is a .380 wOBA talent?
- Do you think that Kendry Morales’ age 31-34 years will be better than Albert Pujols’ 35-38 years?
Considering Morales’ walk rate, both in the bigs and in the minors, I wouldn’t bet on either of those two things happening.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
if Albert goes, the Mets would be my guess
“close to family” is among his criteria, and he has family in New York.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions
I think he would most likely end up with the Mets, yes
But I think that the Cubs might be a player, and that would be much, MUCH worse for the Cardinals as an organization, which is why I put them first.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Albert to the Mets or Yankees is the best of all the bad options
I would get to see him play all the time and the rest of you would get plenty of national TV opportunities. But…then again..WGN is national….
Free Milton
Somehow I just don't see it being the Cubs
even in 2011, I imagine they’ll still have a hefty payroll (although admittedly they’ll have shed a lot of their big contracts). I think the new ownership are committed to shaving a lot of $ off, anyhow, aren’t they? I can’t see how they could afford Pujols at 30m AND Soriano at ~20m without having a payroll well over $120m.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Albert and the Press
Strauss took some shots at Pujols for his quick exit after the playoff losses and this made me wonder if Albert would even entertain moving to NYC or Boston for the rest of his career. The press in those cities is missing the midwest nice gene and life could get miserable for Pujols.
I pray Albert realizes this and factors it into his decision making.
The press here is not always 100% MWN, but it’s gotta be wimpier than in those bigger markets. And I would think that should be important to someone like Albert, who usually doesn’t seem comfortable with the press.
If only we could pry Joe Posnanski away from Kansas City…
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
would the Royals make a play for Albert
winnable AL Central, increase ticket and merchandise sales, possible growth in tv revenue could factor into a decision by KC to put up big bucks to get in the game.
His OBP is too high
Seriously though, that might not be as crazy as I first thought. He does have the KC connection. But I just don’t see them being able to cough up enough money for it.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
They might want to
but Albert would never sign there. They would have to guarantee to put a winning ballclub around him to even get him to sit down, and I don’t think they would want to bump their payroll enough to make that possible.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Grienke's extension
makes the bum royals give a shot every 5th day is that not enough? btw i live in KC and dayton moore doesnt have the balls to sign anyone good for the right contract, just bad players with one good year while over paying
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
Pujols to KC
only happens if Soria/Greinke/etc. are in tact, TLR signs there, and he is given HUGE money to help rebuild, in my opinion…however, it would give him a chance to “play” DH near the end of the contract.
and pigs fly
he doesn’t want to help rebuild. and HUGE money wouldn’t allow them to, anyway.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Yeah
KC will remain mediocre for the next two years, no way he’s going there, no matter how many dollars they may want to throw at him. I think it’s New York or Boston, realistically (if the Rangers get super-awesome with all their young talent, I could see them making a play at becoming a major dynasty, too, they’re an under-rated player in the possible 2011 sweepstakes, especially if Davis continues to tank).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
They have Justin Smoak coming up
I think they’ll be set at 1B for at least the next 6 years when he hits the MLB next season. Most scouts believe he’s the real deal…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
KC has to go with a Florida type of model.
They just don’t have the revenues to devote $25MM or so to one player.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Randy Johnson would reduce Lugo to a pulp
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
of course
we should really have a proper GLARE+ index.
glower leverage adjusted for reach and eye-size…. ?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
The height-value of glare must be taken into account when discussing contracts.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Lugo has worked many walks on glare alone.
probably effective against rookie pitchers, who don’t know what to do about that dampness in their pants.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
randy johnson is one of the few people who scares me
through the TV.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
i'm not a logic expert, by any means, but
I believe Rosenthal’s approach is not begging the question, but presumptive reasoning; where the conclusion is provisionally correct.
Hm
You might be right. It’s clearly a logical fallacy of some sort. It’s more fun to say “begging the question”, and I really wanted that to be it. After looking it up again to refresh my memory, I came away feeling that it was similar enough that it wasn’t totally stupid.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
His whole argument is based on a made-up premise.
And mattybobo points this out, as does pistol (although, I feel like a “the” should be in there: “the pistol”).
Scenario:
1) Cards offer 8 years at $160MM.
2) Pujols wants 10 years at $275MM.
No one knows if either of these positions are the parties’ respective positions. And, even if they were, on this, the third day of the offseason, so what? It’s called “contract negotiating” for a reason. Do I think the end result will be closer to Rosenthal’s made up starting place for Pujols? Yes. Do I think the Cardinals organization will draw a hard line in the sand at 8 years, $160MM? Absolutely not. So, why would anyone even write this? I don’t know. It’s not even journalism. It’s speculative gossip, more worthy of a London tabloid than a sports news website.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
There's loads more intellectual merit in our light-hearted mocking of his article
than in the actual article itself.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I thought the exact same thing
when you emailed me his column yesterday — it’s all speculation, and Rosenthal hasn’t even talked to the parties involved in this discussion to get a bead on where they are at the present time.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
rotation
Yes, i doubt we’ll be able to replicate this year’s rotation. Chances are good Carp won’t be able to do it again, pinero’s gone, etc. However, I think the team will be able to get valuable innings out of these guys. Loshe should be healthy, and though he was horrible for the last few months, if he’s somewhat less horrible, that’s a pretty decent starter. If they resign smoltz, i wouldn’t be surprised and it would fill out the rotation nicely.
Carp
Waino
Loshe
Smoltz (?)
Garcia/boggs/etc
Staff
I think we’ll see Smoltz back and another bargain free agent to “compete” for a rotation spot. I think we’ll see Garcia start in AAA and move up when Smoltz and/or Carp have health issues.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
FA
hm. It seemed to me like the coaching staff was thinking about having somebody out of the system begin the year with the big club. I think even mo mentioned that. i think garcia and the hawk were the names they mentioned.
bear in mind that Smoltz is a long shot to throw 100 innings next year
still, I really want him back…
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Starting Rotation
This should be a year to buy low on some starting pitchers, and we really only need one to fill out our rotation. I think that they guy that we should target, and one whose career closely resembles an old project pitcher of Dave Duncans, is Brett Myers. Now, hear me out before groaning….
Look at his baseball reference page here: Myers. Now go look at Dave Stewart’s page….see what I mean? They are awfully similar pitchers through their age 28 season: sporadic problems with control, injury issues (but not serious ones), hard throwing guys with similar pitch arsenals.
Duncan turned Stewart around (and this is just from stuff I’ve read) by moving his arm angle down a slot to get more movement on his fastball, teaching him a splitter, and showing him how to pitch down in the zone while using the top of the zone to get strikeouts. I don’t see why a similar approach wouldn’t work with Myers — he throws hard, struggles to find a consistent second pitch, and, from what I’ve seen of him, turns to throwing instead of pitching an awful lot when he doesn’t have his good stuff. He’s got talent, and I think that Dave could work wonders with him.
I also think that he’d come pretty cheap. I don’t think Philly, with Lee, Hamels, Happ, Blanton, and a good amount of pitching in the high minors are going to want to spend any money on Myers, and I would guess that he wants out of Philly as well. I don’t think that he’ll get an offer longer than 3 years at around $15-$20M total, meaning the Cards could get him for 2-3 years at less than what they paid Piniero for this season. I think that’s a good low risk buy for a guy that has shown that he can be a hell of a pitcher at times.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
He seems like kinda a douche though
unlike some of the other more sabr-inclined posters, I do kind of feel that there ARE certain players I just couldn’t root for (doesn’t include Bradley, btw, who I think has had a bit of a rough deal in the press, despite being a BIT douchey), but Myers is such an a-grade asshole I just wouldn’t want him on the Cardinals. In fact he might be about my least favourite player in baseball.
If we go for a mid-level, reclamation-project-with-talent type pitcher I’d rather look at Duschsherer, who I think would probably come in at a similar cost (or even Rich Harden, who wouldn’t be a huge amount more expensive – maybe 3/30, 2/25 or so).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
You could say the same thing about Dave Stewart
before he came to Oakland — he was written off as hard-headed and un-coachable, always wanting to do things his own way even if the results didn’t work out in his favor.
I don’t know why Myers gets such a bad rap though — he had the one domestic abuse incident, other than that I can’t find a lot of other clippings showing him being a first rate douchebag. If you think he’s a better clubhouse guy than Bradley, who’s worn out his welcome with three different organizations, then you better put some evidence behind it, because I certainly don’t see that.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
only one incident?!
http://www.the700level.com/2009/08/how-do-you-think-brett-myers-was-really-hurt.html
http://www.the700level.com/2008/10/brett-myers-fon.html
Yeah, he’ll fit right in.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
The first two relate to one incident
and the reporter wasn’t exactly on his best behavior there either.
The last two are pretty circumstantial — Chad Curtis fires guns at a gun range all the time, does that make him a bad person? I don’t see what that has to do with him being a good baseball player.
The Philadelphia media loves to hate players — do I need to go back and search for all the bad press clippings about Scott Rolen too? I wouldn’t call him a clubhouse cancer.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
what about his upcoming hip surgery?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
That would concern me more than his
off field temper tantrums. But it would also make him extremely cheap on a one year deal if he could come back and prove himself. I would much rather take a risk on him than on someone like Erik Bedard or Rich Harden who will cost 2 to 3 times as much as Myers would, even at injury-induced reduced market rates.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
If you think he’s a better clubhouse guy than Bradley, who’s worn out his welcome with three different organizations, then you better put some evidence behind it, because I certainly don’t see that.
I didn’t say that. I said that I think he is an asshole and I don’t want him on the Cardinals because I couldn’t root for the guy. This is not an objective or evidence-based opinion, this is my personal feeling.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, I know your feelings about Myers ;)
I do think he’s a good player and one who could be had for below market value.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 13, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you're probably right
there’s actually a lot of pitchers this off-season who fall into that category (which, as much as anything, makes re-upping Pineiro for anything more than a team discount a bad idea IMO).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I think a person who punches his wife in the face...
qualifies as more than a douchebag.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Oct 13, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I have had the same thought.
Though the hip injury concerns me and I wouldn’t want to Cards to hook onto any long term deal, I do think Myers is a re-tread that should be explored.
Now Harden I could go for.
I can’t see it happening, though.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
his arm would fall off in st. louis
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 13, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I think there is a lot of evidence that RIch Harden is going to be healthy and good going forward.
As he has trimmed his repertoire from four pitches, to three, to two, he’s spent fewer and fewer days on the DL each season. I could see him making a sort of Josh Beckett-like jump, finally becoming a reliable starter after years bouncing around in effectiveness and durability.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
If nothing else
he could be a shut-down closer. While it’s not as important a role as a starter, I think with his history of arm issues it might be a good route to go for him if he can’t stay healthy.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
He'd just be so much more valuable in the rotation.
If we’re paying him $7-8M per season, a 200 inning season could give us a huge amount of surplus value. Joakim Soria is a $7-8M closer, which Harden could be, but I doubt he could exceed.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Can the Cardinals keep Harden healthy for a full season?
They don’t necessarily have a great track record at preventing or limiting the progression of injuries. Signing Harden has to be predicated on their ability to keep him off the DL.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Harden appears to be trending in the right direction,
and many of his injuries and problems appear to be related to fatigue and lack of conditioning (ie. oblique injuries, velocity shifts from fatigue, and his arm issues appear to be of a similar variety (muscles straining rather than connective tissue degrading and tearing (yay parentheses))).
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I'm not sure he'd pitch on back-to-back days.
He’ll often take off like 10 days between starts for no apparent reason. Piniella allowed him to do this stuff. Hell, he shut himself down at the end of the year and then went out and said he would have pitched had the cubs been in the playoff hunt.
Then Piniella publicly thanked him for his service!!! Unbelievable.
Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
Did anybody happen to notice...
that a venerable gentleman, goes by the name of Larry Borowsky, wrote a piece for Hardball Times the other day? It’s about the Cards/Dodgers series, so if it’s still to depressing you might want to skip it. Wait, what am I thinking, nobody should skip something written by the great lboros.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
confirms what I figured
If one’s going to get on Franklin (and rightly so) for that ninth, you’ve got to get on Duncan too.
sometimes our greatest strength — preparation — is our undoing. Stupid game plans are nothing on free swingers looking for a pitch to hit.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
That's why the closer job really needs to be in the hands of a fireballer that can throw strikes.
Even free swingers have a hardtime catching up to a 100 mph fastball on the inside corner. Don’t need much of a game plan for that.
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 13, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s why the closer job really needs to be in the hands of a fireballer that can throw strikesgood pitcher.
Fixed.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I knew that was a hanging curve as soon as I posted it.
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 13, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe a hanging slider, instead? You know, to cheer people up.
Cue the .gif!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Never could throw a slider, myself.
Whichever it was, Monk swatted it. Pitching never was my strong suit.
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 13, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
He is quickly approaching
Passan territory.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
The thing is, supposedly Passan is a decent journalist outside of his cardinals hate (not sure if this is true).
I don't seen any way
that Pujols ends up in another uniform during his career. as for the other guys on your list….
Pineiro: I still have no idea how he did what he did this year. Obviously you have to find a guy to fill those innings, but he’s gonna be asking for big money. Feel free to correct me but it kind of reminds me of when Suppan became a free agent a few years ago. (Ask the Brewers how that one is working out)
DeRosa: It’s interesting reading what other team’s think of him considering all the hand ringing over the loss of DeRosa up in Chicago. I didn’t like DeRosa as a 3B cause I didn’t like his arm, but your problems with him are bigger than that. I hadn’t realized he had dropped off so much once getting to STL. Just looking at his career numbers I don’t think he’d play that bad again next year, but I’ve been wrong before. I imagine that if the price is right the Cubs will try to bring him back. Not sure how he fits into the Cardinals plans, but I’d imagine if the price was right they’d give him a shot.
Holliday: He’s gonna be wanting big money but I think he’s worth it. Just my personal opinion.
---AC 00 00 00 - Believe
iff: DeRosa to the cubs
I’m all for a bidding war to drive his price up. ;)
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
The only problem is knowing when to blink.
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Oct 13, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
We'll have to see what new ownership does,
but Hendry overreacted to problems after the 2008 season and I wouldn’t put it past him to do the same this offseason. As much as I hate to say it, I think it would take a lot to get him out of Hendry’s price range.
---AC 00 00 00 - Believe
who's stumping for DeRo over there?
I got the impression there were players who wanted him.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
D Lee was IIRC.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
he was a very popular guy in that clubhouse
I don’t recall specific names. I’d like to say Lilly, Dempster, and Reed Johnson were some of the guys but don’t quote me on that.
---AC 00 00 00 - Believe
i hope we don't overreact
after similarly getting swept by dodgers.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
I get the impression the Cards are a bit more solid up front.
After getting swept Lou decided the Cubs needed a LH power bat for the middle of the lineup. That lead to DeRo and Wood being let go to clear up salary for Gameboard.
---AC 00 00 00 - Believe
of course we are
i’m not worried about mo, if he makes the decisions. managers always point to needs/wants for why we lost (a la lou) because, god forbid, they themselves had any hand in it. we walked into a dark alley and got blind-sided, but it was daylight and our eyes were closed. we got progressively sloppier and lethargic thru sept right into the playoffs. someone should be held accountable, and i don’t mean fired, just accountable. TLR. yet they played so hard when they weren’t all that good.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Doubt we'll overact
DeWitt has already said he was happy with this years team. Siting winning the division is the goal and you take your chances in the playoffs.
Pineiro
I’m a bit more bullish on him that some others here are, I think. I tend to reckon he’s found a new skill-set, and, whilst his HR rate was freakishly low and there was some evidence he was a bit lucky on balls/strikes (from VEP I believe) this year, even if you shave 1 whole run off his FIP he’s still about a 3-win pitcher over 200 innings or so, and he’s a pretty durable guy (with, by most accounts, good mechanics and pretty much one pitch). I wouldn’t want to give him a Lohse contract but I think I’d rather we’d given the Lohse contract to him, if you know what I mean.
Lohse just had a career year with his usual skillset. Pineiro learnt a new skill. I think there’s some level of reproducibility there. I just wouldn’t want to pay much more than $10m/yr for it.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
isn't piniero arb a no-brainer?
the only way he accepts is if he really wants to be a card, and nothing wrong with that. he runs to greener pastures and we get a pick.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
you have seen more of him obviously
I can see the price on him getting high. It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out.
---AC 00 00 00 - Believe
I want the draft picks myself
We get 2 for Holliday, 2 for DeRosa, and 1 for Pineiro. Let Glaus, Wellemeyer, and Ankiel walk. The only good thing about Holliday dropping the ball means that Pujols will not be as upset when we let him walk. His defense was vastly overrated by UZR. I expected an above average fielder but he never showed that to me this year. He just made Ludwick look better.
Reload our farm system with 7 draft picks in the first 2 rounds.
Some people think DeRosa will accept arbitration. I just can’t see it myself. Regardless of his true value his perceived value is higher than that. For the ability to play multiple position and has a good reputation.
With the rotation currently set as
Carp
Waino
Lohse
#4th starter
#5th starter
#6th starter/longman
I think Boggs, Garcia, and Hawksworth can battle it out for the 5th and 6th spot. Their has been a lot of talk about resigning Smoltz to a one year contract similar to the one he signed this year. $5.5M plus incentives. I am against this personally. I would rather spend that similar contract on Erik Bedard he is younger, a lefty, and has good career numbers. On the bad side he has a lot of injury questions. He is currently a Type B Free Agent and not that far away from being a Type A. I think a one year deal would be a perfect situation. Hope Bedard returns to enough form to get that Type A ranking. Offering him arbitration and get 2 picks. The value of those picks will almost pay for the contract itself.
1 for DeRosa...
the dude at mlbtraderumors had an excel glitch that put DeRosa as an A. He’s actually a B. I already cursed the guy out.
MB for LF in 2010!
yeah...
I’m excited about getting a reasonably high pick for Holliday and avoiding the 6/100 that he’ll demand. If Pineiro and DeRo come back on reasonable two year deals, I won’t cry about losing the supplementals.
MB for LF in 2010!
DeRo will be 36 after 2 years
and coming off wrist surgery. Unless it’s a real bargain, I think I’d pass (I’ve really changed my mind on this, I was all for a 2/16m deal earlier in the year, but I just think Freese/Craig will eventually put up similar numbers for free).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Oct 13, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I agree
I don’t see how DeRosa could be much more than a 2 WAR player, which is basically what we could get from Freese/Craig.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 13, 2009 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions
that stinks
it would have been nice to get a first rounder out of him to replace the lost talent, although if the cubs signed him the birds would have only gotten a suppl. and a 2nd rounder as the cubbies’ first rounder is protected.
DeRosa now a Type B
the projections at mlbtraderumors had a correction in the last publication that pushed DeRosa back to a Type B, so only one pick for him (and less pain for the signing team)
question for the field
If we kept DeRosa, what would an acceptable deal be to you? Opportunity-cost included.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 13, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
1-year
$5MM base, plus performance incentives that could take it to $7MM. Although, I’d rather have Glaus on that type of a deal than DeRosa (even if Glaus’ incentive-reach contract would be more expensive). Glaus is better defensively and offensively and is at a classic “buy low” level.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
agrees
Positronic Upgraded Juggernaut Optimized for Logical Sabotage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 13, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
"way" too much?
he’s a consistent 2-4 win player. And he can manage the outfield if there’s an injury or we come up empty in the Holliday/Bay sweepstakes.
I understand people are down on DeRosa, but the prognosis for the surgery is good. I can see being nervous about a third year, but 2/15 can’t possibly be “way” too much.
MB for LF in 2010!
I'm now pretty much split between Glaus and DeRosa
Of the Rose’s D looked pretty good in this last series. Though he is still too short. Glaus… man, I don’t know what to think about Glaus. His D compared favorably to Rolen’s in that one game…. SSS, I think we need more information.
Stupid Curse-of-Scotty. Now third base will be in suspense like our middle infield was for ages.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
DeRosa
The problem with resigning Glaus is that he only plays third and the Cards should be moving Freese into that mix. De Rosa is better because he plays a lot of other positions (to varying degrees of efficiency).
is there a reason why DeRo isn't Skippy's backup?
I think I knew what it was at some point…
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Lugo
I think it’s just that the Cards got Lugo about the same time DeRo came back from injury.
but I thought Lugo was Boog's backup.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
In Soviet Russia...
Backups Boog Lugo.
Did I do that right?
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
...you could really use any combination and it would work.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Lugo is free
Then again, no reason the Cards can’t trade Lugo and his non salary to restock the farm.
Center Field
With Ank gone, Skip will be the backup centerfielder next year (along with Luddy?)
who's backing us up in the farm?
all I know off the top of my head is Sugar Shane.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Shane
Can’t see him making the big club next year.
me neither
poor Shane.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Jay?
or DJ Tools (probably still a year away).
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
oh, right, Jay.
it’s sad that I followed them through their playoffs and I can’t remember names.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Shane was traded in the Holliday deal
Right?
by SouthsideCardsFan on Oct 13, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Peterson
not Robinson.
regime’s new priority is to eliminate players with identical names. except Ryans.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
My only thing with both of them is if we bring them back then what do we do with Craig?
I realize that he won’t just take off but he needs to be up here next year.
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsh on winning the 1982 World Series.