October 2006 was a happier time (via newyork.mets.mlb.com). Yes, I got this off of the Mets' official site. How awesome is that? No, I never tire of posting photos from the magical 2006 run.

Lets go back to a happier time, a little more than three years ago, when the St. Louis Cardinals had dispatched of the San Diego Padres in the NLDS, defeated the New York Metropolitans in a high-drama, classic NLCS, and then defeated the heavily-favored Tigers in the World Series for the franchise's National League-leading tenth world title. It was a title that the MV3 deserved, even if the MV3 was little more than a shell of its former greatness. After the season, there were many decisions to be made about the World Champs' roster, and Walt Jocketty, much to the chagrin of many in the VEB community who recognized that the '06 Cards needed a shake-up to compete for the playoffs in '07, was largely content to bring the '06 champs back for a victory lap in '07. There were two immediate offensive upgrades available on the open market. Both happen to be left fielders, then and now, both went to NL Central rivals, and both offer cautionary tales on investing nine figures in thirty(-something) outfielders.

ALFONSO SORIANO TO THE CUBS

One of the players coveted by some on this board was Alfonso Soriano. Walt Jocketty didn't bite, and the Cubs swept him up, immediately adding more punch to a lineup that already had the power bats of Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez at the infield corners.

Soriano was the prize catch of the 2006-07 Hot Stove. He had just completed an impressive Age 30 season in the cavernous RFK Stadium, former home of the Nationals. He swatted 46 home runs a year after hitting 36 in the homer-friendly Ballpark at Arlington (or whatever the corporate name is these days). His line was impressive: .277/.351/.560/.911, a career-high OPS in his free agent year. And the Cubbies rewarded him handsomely, giving Soriano an eight-year deal worth $136 million, the largest in the franchise's long history. The Cubs' Official Site also gives us this perspective on the Soriano deal:

Soriano's package is the fifth largest given to a Major League player, behind Alex Rodriguez ($252 million for 10 years), Derek Jeter ($189 million for 10 years), Manny Ramirez ($160 million for eight years) and Todd Helton ($141.5 million for 11 years).

It was an addition that would ultimately prove enough to help make the Cubs the last club standing in an underwhelming NL Central the following year when Soriano repeated his career-high WAR of 5.5 for the Cubs in '07. That year, the backloaded deal paid Soriano $10 million for $22.7 million in value from the left fielder, and many a Cubs fan celebrated the signing while many a Cardinals fan bemoaned DeWitt for not opening DeWallet and making Soriano a Cardinal.

The next year, 2008, the Cubs were a juggernaut. They had some of the best pitching and hitting in the league and bulldozed their competition in the division while securing the NL's top record. Everything fell into place for Hendry's 25 and the season was magical...until they repeated their 2007 NLDS flameout and were swept into the history books, providing a sad chapter that commemorates their 100th consecutive year of losing. Soriano had a good year, OPSing .876, but his WAR fell to 3.3, giving the Cubbies $13.8 million in value for $14 million in salary in his Age 32 season.

We all know that Soriano's production fell off the proverbial cliff in the just-completed summer of 2009. Soriano hit .241/.303/.423/.726 over 522 PAs in 117 games and his UZR/150 went from 5.2 in '08 to -13.4 in '09 (for whatever the reason, e.g., UZR being slightly unreliable, Soriano being injured, Soriano aging, Soriano having a bad defensive season). His offense, coupled with his defense, resulted in Soriano's WAR plummeting to -0.8, giving the Cubs -$3.6 million in value for Soriano's$16 million 2009 salary. In three years with the Cubs, Soriano has given them $32.3 million in value, according to WAR, for a salary of $40 million. As noted above, however, Soriano is still under contract for five more years. Through 2014. At $19 million annually.

This is not to say that the 34-year-old Soranio, in the Poststeroids Era, will not OPS .900 next year and put up a WAR of 5.5 on the strength of a complete revival of his game, but it is also possible, perhaps even likely, that Soriano will struggle to OPS even .800 and against be a negative value for the Cubs. It is worth taking notice and seeing just how easy it is for yesterday's triumphant signing to become today's albatross contract.

CARLOS LEE TO THE ASTROS

The aptly nicknamed El Caballo couldn't ever field--and this is something that UZR and scouts alike will agree--so it is unlikely that the Astro front office ever had even the seed of a thought in its collective mind that he could be even serviceable as a full-time left fielder. (At least this is what I tell myself.) No, they wanted the .300-average, 30+ home run power hitter. So what if his last name doesn't begin with a "B," he was a killer of baseballs. Like Soriano, Lee had just completed an impressive display of offensive power in his Age 30 season. He whacked 37 homers between Milwaukee and Arlington while posting a slash line of .300/.355/.540/.895. It was a 2.6-WAR season for Lee and got him a $100 million, 6-year deal (with a "nominal weight clause") to patrol the Crawford Box-shorted pasture of left field in Enron Minute Maid.

"This is a historic commitment to winning," Astros general manager Tim Purpura said. [Author's Note: Purpura said this upon signing a .300-hitting, ~30 HR left fielder. Hmmm. Who could I see saying the same thing come Thanksgiving, upon inking another .300-hitting, ~30 HR left fielder to a 6-year, $100+ million contract...]

Again, the contract was backloaded (as contracts tend to be). Again, this made the contract look pretty good, in terms of value, in the early years.

How the Crawford Boxes affect his UZR is certainly up for debate, but he has been consistently below average during his three years in Houston, according to the metric. Thus, a downward trend in defense has not negatively impacted Lee's WAR, like it had Soriano.

Lee can hit and has done so consistently for the 'Stros, even if his power numbers were somewhat lower this season. His slugging percentage was .528 in '07, .569 in '08, and then .489 in '09.  Lee has hit for average--.303, .314, and .300--in his three seasons. In fact, offensively, Lee has been about what one would expect him to be through his Age 33 season. In terms of value, he has delivered a 3.3-WAR '07, giving Houston $13.5 million in value for $11.5 million in salary. In '08, his WAR was again 3.3, that year providing a $15 million value for $12.5 million in salary. This year, his WAR fell to 2.4, good for a value of $10.6 million. His salary, though, climbed to $18.5 million, giving the club a value-to-salary ratio of -$7.9 million. For three years, Lee's net value by WAR has been -$3.4 million for Houston. Who thinks he will be worth the $19 million annual salary the Astros will pay him in each of 2010, 2011, and 2012? Me, neither. Maybe they could trade him? Not according to the ESPN article on the contract.

A source told ESPN.com's Jayson Stark the only significant non-monetary clause in the contract is that Lee will have a complete no-trade clause for the first four years of the deal and a limited no-trade for the final two years.

So, we have two power-hitting left fielders who were signed to long-term, $100 million (or more) contracts by divisonal foes in the not-so-distant Hot Stove of aught-six. As Cardinals fans, we can sit back and chuckle as we watch them "earn" their $19 million salaries over the next three or five years. And we should do as much, but we should also look in the mirror and ask ourselves what Matt Holliday is worth in both years and dollars, because, come 2012, our franchise could be weighted down by a $100-million albatross contract just as the Astros and Cubs are today.

Next Installment: "The Parameters of Signing Holliday"