2009 Cardinals by WAR

by erik on Jan 8, 2009 8:21 PM EST Comment 41 comments

87-88 wins. That is what I got using this fun, user friendly spreadsheet thingy Sky of BTB came up with.

I mostly went off Marcel projections or just my gut for the offense and pitchers ERA, so there may be a tinge of homer in there. But mostly, I tried to stick with the projections. Well, except for plate appearances and innings. Those were more an educated guess. I am admittedly optimistic on the amount of innings the Wagonmaker and Lohse will throw.

For fielding, I gave Yadi 1.1 wins and then mostly looked at Sean Smith's fielding projections for OF and IF. For base running, I docked half a win off of Yadi, Glaus I docked 1/5th of a win. Everyone else I left alone, but it's probably no big diff if I tried to get real technical with it.

You can find the spreadsheet here. I plan on doing more with it throughout the season, but wanted to run it by you VEBers, figuring the wisdom of the crowds may help.

I was thinking more like 85 wins, so the results surprised me. If it's true that they are in the 88 win range, they should be aggressive buyers when it comes to SP, as Chuck was saying this morning. I would hope around 90 wins could at least win the wild card. I need to run the projections on the Cubs, Phillies and Mets at some point.

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nice job erik

I was in the middle of making one myself, but I couldn’t figure out the base running projection at all. Is a neutral BR baseline the norm for projections?

Will you be posting the updates over at your new site during the season? If so that is one more reason to keep an eye out over there.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Jan 8, 2009 8:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I deferred to a person who is probably smarter than me

and he said that base running in WAR valuations are pretty volatile, so I decided to leave it alone for the most part. The rule of thumb is +.2 for someone you think is a great baserunner, -.2 for someone you feel is poor, 0 for everyone else, and Yadi is well, Yadi.

Feel free to guess who the smart person was. And yes, I will try and keep up w/it at PAH9

I'll be the one overrating these Faberge' eggs, thank you very much!
Future Redbirds / PAH9

by erik on Jan 8, 2009 8:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

thanks for that information

and good deal, now I am only 2 sites away from never having to see anything but baseball when I turn on the laptop.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Jan 8, 2009 9:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I feel confident going a bit wider than that.

The best and worst ten to fifteen guys in the majors are +/- .5 wins for baserunning. Anyone who’s pretty good or pretty bad can be +/- .25

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 9, 2009 11:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sky you're so adventurous

going an extra 1/2 run either direction.

;o)

Nice Robot

by azruavatar on Jan 9, 2009 11:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm the Magellan of WAR spreadsheets.

I do highly recommend BPro’s baserunning metric for those interested in looking at this sort of thing.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 9, 2009 11:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's a good metric in recording the past but

it’s consistently from year to year w/r/t most players isn’t so great. True outliers (Chone Figgins) are a different story but I have hesitations about assigning too much value to an area we still can’t predict all that well.

Nice Robot

by azruavatar on Jan 9, 2009 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Here's a good place to start for those interested

Link on best/worst baserunner
Link on correlations

Nice Robot

by azruavatar on Jan 9, 2009 12:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for those.

The Personal Finance Playbook.

by Toddius on Jan 9, 2009 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If you are looking for more

especially the methodology, which is a bit dry, just search ‘baserunning’ under dan fox at BP. That was some of the most impressive statistical research BP has done in a long time.

Nice Robot

by azruavatar on Jan 9, 2009 3:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That looks familiar

It compares with mine. I used Chone and my own gut but overall it gets close, although I am a bit more pessimistic.

I still would like to see it done for every team and see what the total average wins are before I get too excited about the results. As was shown by another poster on BtB the average for the AL central came to 85.3. Could it happen, I guess maybe it could, but will it happen, probably not. Replacement level of 2.0 might be a bit high or it might just be the playing time allotment isn’t realistic.

by JBrew on Jan 8, 2009 10:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

agreed

something does seem a little off. I’m sure some poor soul is going to grind through every team and find out something might not be quite right and maybe Sky will make whatever adjustments, if needed.

The hunch of 85 wins seems more about right still to me until we get a little more evidence in, but it’s a fun toy to poke around with nonetheless.

I'll be the one overrating these Faberge' eggs, thank you very much!
Future Redbirds / PAH9

by erik on Jan 9, 2009 3:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The adjustment will probably be made with the 48ish team replacement-level number.

It’s at 52 for NL teams and 45 for AL teams, currently.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 9, 2009 11:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

87-88 seems pretty reasonable

I see Ludwick, Welly, and Greene being the 2 guys we have on our roster currently that can help us outperform this estimate. Another starter seems like it would go a long way.

Great post.

by TheBirds on Jan 9, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

3 guys*

by TheBirds on Jan 9, 2009 12:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ohh, and Carp pitching a full season!

Sorry, I’m totally mucking up your fanpost with my conversion w/ myself.

by TheBirds on Jan 9, 2009 12:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You're converting yourself?

Do you no longer worship the Gods of Baseball? Blasphemer!

by mattybobo on Jan 9, 2009 9:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

please

don’t make the conversion!

4B - beer baseball bands blog

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 9, 2009 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Cubs have won the NL Central 2 seasons in a row.

The gods of baseball are dead to me.

by TheBirds on Jan 9, 2009 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

they gave us a WS ring with 83 wins

we can let them give the cubs a division title with 85, esp if they let them get swept 2 years in a row in the playoffs.

still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.

by SleepyCA on Jan 10, 2009 3:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and got promptly kicked out each year

I think they are alive and well and full of laughs yet to be had at the expense of baby bears.

"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."

by StLHugo on Jan 13, 2009 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"Going For It"

Thanks Erik.

On your Go For It sheet, Sheets adds 3 wins. We go from 88 wins to 91 wins, putting us in contention for the division or the wild card.

I see this and I think of Paul DePodesta talking about how 90 wins is their magic number in Moneyball, and I think of the myriad analyses by Nate Silver et. al. at Baseball Prospectus and in Baseball Between the Numbers talking about how it is in a teams benefit financially (short-term and long-term) to spend now in order to move from 87-88 wins to 90+.

Let’s get in on the Sheets conversation, Mo.

by lightbulb on Jan 9, 2009 10:11 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

If the Cardinals want to avoid a long term contract

I wonder what Lowe would say to a 1Y/18-20M contract.

Nice Robot

by azruavatar on Jan 9, 2009 10:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"Hey, Minaya, whaddaya think about having Pedro pitch every fifth day for you again?"

“How bout I give you 12 months to think about it? Maybe in January of 2010 you can come up with something better than 3y/$36M.”

by tom s. on Jan 9, 2009 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hard to say no I'd think

And not just because I don’t even make that much in a year.

by lightbulb on Jan 9, 2009 8:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He might take it...

If you look at how bad the free agent market is for pitching after next offseason, he’d have to consider it, and so would Ben Sheets. They would be the two best pitchers on the market next year, and nobody else is probably going to be anywhere close to their level of talent.

It’s definitely worth looking at, but I’d start at $15M and go up from there…

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jan 10, 2009 2:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How is Lowe

not the kind of impact player that the Mo says would allow for more payroll flexibility? He will be at least 4 wins better than Pinata so I don’t see the rationale for not offering him a deal.

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Jan 10, 2009 8:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I also had them signing

Orlando Hudson, who’s finding a cool market and could come a little cheaper than expected.

I'll be the one overrating these Faberge' eggs, thank you very much!
Future Redbirds / PAH9

by erik on Jan 9, 2009 11:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

of course

remember it’s a “going for it” projection, not at all what i think will actually happen

I'll be the one overrating these Faberge' eggs, thank you very much!
Future Redbirds / PAH9

by erik on Jan 9, 2009 11:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

tks!

by astrostl on Jan 9, 2009 11:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Could we supplement this?

Adding, say, Oliver Perez or Paul Byrd to the rotation?

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Jan 9, 2009 2:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I forgot

I greatly enjoyed the spreadsheet. Thanks, Erik.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Jan 9, 2009 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Paul Byrd, 0 WAR, new answer same as the first.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 9, 2009 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So, my expectation for our offseason rotation acquisition is:

literally “replacement level player.” Ugh.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Jan 12, 2009 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ah, but is he replacing a 0 WAR player?

I think that is the question you have to ask

"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."

by StLHugo on Jan 13, 2009 2:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Didn't someone else have a projection for next year that was really close to this one?

I think it was a few weeks back, but I can’t find it. I think it was thegodfather who had the post up. He definitely needs some credit for that because it’s right in line with this one.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jan 9, 2009 2:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

Yeah, here it is The average of James, Marcel, and my own projection is 83 wins. My personal projection was 89. Then at the end (in the comments) I threw in Sheets and Lowe. With Sheets the average improved to 86, with Lowe the average improved to 88(!).

I think I’ll do another one once we’ve done all of our VEB projections. You know, to see what the community projection of the Cards’ record is based on individual performances.

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Jan 9, 2009 5:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If I am reading this right

our 35.1 WAR come at a retail value of over $176,000,000 on the free agent market. Good thing to remember next time someone says we should sign player X for $4.5M times his WAR value. It takes a lot of cheap WAR to offset the free agent WAR.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Jan 9, 2009 6:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Some minor adjustments

Erik mentioned a little surprise at the projections coming close to 88 wins. I made a few adjustments to Erik’s spreadsheet on PAs that I found to be most in line with two expectations for the coming season re: some of our best players:

1) Pujols gets similar PAs to his last few years. I reduced his PAs on the sheet to 525 and gave those 60 to Mather (granted I didn’t bother to create a new line for Mather at 1B, but the positions aren’t miles apart).

2) Carp can’t put it together. I put Carpenter at 0 innings and gave those 70 to Boggs (If he doesn’t get them, it is most likely a Boggsian pitcher gets them, i.e. slightly above replacement level). While I don’t expect this to happen, I feel I speak for most Cardinal plans when I say that mentally I am not planning on relying on him next year. Let’s call it an emotional defense mechanism…may not be rational, but it is the mindset I am in when thinking about our chances next year.

With those two adjustments, the projected win total goes to 85.5.

by Fred Head on Jan 10, 2009 12:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs