I was wondering if the Red Baron’s elbow troubles were accompanied by poor vision or hairy palms.

Good read Chuckb. I’m wondering if Mo had expected to make a trade of Ankiel or Skip or possibly others to reduce the # of salary arbitration cases. Thus leaving more spending loot for the Cards. Since that hasn’t happened Mo went cheap signing Ring instead of more expensive pitchers. I believe that Mo will make a move before opening day. Possibly trading an outfielder or two and maybe a third baseman. The hay isn’t in the barn yet.

sure that it’s all that conservative. It probably is, but he should be entering a pretty steep curve. Maybe not, but I think you’ve got the over/under about right and you’ve absolutely nailed his Chone projection down to the innings and WAR.

And of course those wins could be worth quite a bit to the Cardinals this year. I keep hearing that geography is a factor, but hopefully they’ve already made a call or two.

Ill take one in every color, please…Lowe is who I thought the Cards should go after at the beginning of the offseason but when I heard what he was wanting I backed off of that…now that the market has played out he should definitely be back on our radar…

I hadn’t really considered Lowe an option. It’s not that he’s not worth $12mil/year, just that I didn’t feel the Cards could spend that on their rotation…when they already have inked Lohse, Wainwright, and Carp through these same three or four years – thus leaving little room for extending Welley, or bringing up anyone from the farm. I still think the lack of available rotation spots could be more of a concern than the money. A lot of this depends on what Carp can contribute in the future, and if Lohse puts up a couple more seasons like 2008 he might be moveable after 2010.

I’m not sure how coherent that was…bottom line I’m not sure this team should be committing to another starter for more than two years right now. I just don’t like the lack of flexibility that leaves us with down the road. Maybe it’s best to sure up the rotation now, and let the chips fall where they may next offseason and after 2010.

Lowe would still cost us a first-round draft choice next year (like Ben Sheets). Given the current economic climate, that’s not a factor I would ignore.

Also, we should factor into our thinking whether Lowe would want to play here. He has always pitched on either the east or west coasts. Will he move family and come to the heartland for a few?

This is the mystery starter with closer experience TLR was talking about. Lowe was a closer 1999-2001 with Boston including 42 saves in 2000.

“You still want to improve your bullpen,” La Russa said. “We still want to try. I know we talked about it. The optimum thing is not to ask Chris or Jason to close in ‘09. Let them grow into the role when they’re ready to take it. So who else is out there? One of the things you look at is … a starter that’s a veteran [who has] pitched in the ninth inning with a one-run lead before.”

Just kidding on this suggestion.

imo, geography is probably the biggest hurdle to overcome, but I can’t find any info on where his family lives. He has a college aged son and two elementary school aged children. He grew up in Michigan, drafted by Seattle, played in Boston and LA. That comment really clears things up.

Lowe is every thing this team is looking for. The fact that we haven’t been interested signaled to me 3-4 weeks ago that this team wasn’t going to meet a 100+M payroll that so many have talked about. We will quite simply get a reduction (thats right, prices go up, payroll goes down…and Dewitt doesn’t understand how that gets to fans?). Quite simply, there isn’t a player/players outside of Lowe that gets us close to our previous payroll that the Cards would even be remotely interested in. We’re not going to sign an injury plagued SP, have really no “needs” at any everyday positions, and our bullpen is pretty much better than anything we’ll find on the FA market (save for the 2 terrible LHP we decided to sign, when plenty of better arms were available).

Its frustrating to be a fan of this team right now, and I’ve never said that before. I honestly thought that we spent next to nothing LAST offseason to save payroll for a run at some quality players this year…FOOLISH.

So let’s make that $11 – 16 M left to spend.

I wish they’d spend it on a SP, but I really doubt it.

Mo’ was on 550 last night with Clairborne and Rooney and basically said they’re done. He went on and on about how this team is improved versus last year. He said they might make a move via trade, but really didn’t expect to move anymore in the FA market.

Maybe he should just quit talking for a while, ever day it’s something new and the vitriol continues.

He’s insistent that DeWitt needs to throw some money at someone, just to placate the talk radio types. Doesn’t really seem very smart, does it?

…stop with that damn logic! Don’t you know the best way to run a team is to throw wads of cash at every player early on!

All kidding aside…if the FO is indeed done, I’ll be a little bit upset. I’ll confess that I don’t believe the rotation as currently constructed is good enough to get the team into the playoffs unless several things all happen together:

*Carpenter pitches a 180+ inning season—this is highly doubtful. I see Carpenter as a $20 bill you find in your pocket on the way to the grocery store. It’s neat when you find it, but you better not plan your grocery-store trip around finding it in your pocket.

• Wellemeyer improves from last season—I think his decreased walk rate is sustainable, however now he needs to stay healthy all season and go a hair deeper into games throughout the entire season. With Welle I just don’t know. He’s definitely got plus stuff, but his high FIP and low BABIP make me nervous, all combined with a really inconsistent changeup. I could see him going either way.
  *Lohse has to pitch well. He’s a league average pitcher from where I sit. He doesn’t strike out many guys, doesn’t really have a plus pitch, and is coming off of a career season. He makes me nervous too.
  *Pinata has to not suck—highly unlikely.

That leaves the rotation with four…count ‘em…four question marks that seem more likely to go in the wrong direction than in the right one. With Lowe’s price appareantly lower than it seemed it would be at the beginning of the season, the FO HAS TO kick the tires. Absolutely has to. As you said, chuckb, the worst that could happen is that it drives up the price for the Mets. If the guy doesn’t want to come here, than he doesn’t want to come here…but they’ll never know unless they try.

…it wasn’t supposed to look quite like that…but I think the point still gets across.

I’d love to see Lowe, but I my two biggest concerns or doubts, if i may, that Derek will be in Jupiter, FL in March are: 1) He now has the Mets and Braves vying for services, both of which are capable of outbidding us, and are located on the East Coast, (his stated preference), and 2) He wants a 3+ year deal. Mo has consistently stated that he’s apprehensive of a 3 year deal for an SP with his current roster commitments. This is another reason why I’m skeptical Kenshin Kawakami is a legitimate option.

I think Ben Sheets and Andy Pettite’s respective markets are the only pitchers who have enough upside, proven track record, and overall pitching ability to warrant 10+ million a year that would consider a 2-year deal. I think Mo wants to take this route and getting either of these at 2 for 20-24 million with some additional incentives, could benefit this team largely, and allow for maleability come 2010. Both would also be great trade-chips in 2010 should our fate not yield the rosy results we desire.

I’d love Mo to make three phone calls. First, Call Lowe and tell him you’d do 3 years, 14million and that’s the cieling. When he declines or doesn’t respond like Fuentes, call Sheets and Pettite in succession and offer them the same deal and tell them that the first one to take it has a deal.

Signed,
The Eternally Optimistic

I’ve been holding off on typing this, and maybe I should have kept holding off on it, but I think Bernie takes pride in being the guy who calls out the STL teams. So much so, in fact, that he does it for the sake of doing it. It’s like he’s saying “Hey, look at me! I’m not afraid to speak my mind!” That’s just the vibe I’ve been getting from him for awhile now.

Oh, and I’ve vowed to commit seppuku if I ever read Don Tony again.

Great article! Didn’t know that StatCorner had added pitching WAR. Your link to that goes back to VEB so I think some quotes are missed there. I think the only SPs I ever found both realistic and exciting for us in 2009 were Johnson, Lowe, and Sheets. I haven’t really considered Pettite, but I should.

I think another angle to look at is that Derek Lowe had the 2nd-best qualified starting pitcher GB% last year, the only guy other than Webb to go over 60%. I think Pujols for sure and perhaps Kennedy can anchor our infield defense. Glaus has been plus defense for two years. Greene is somewhat of a concern per UZR, but seems to be treated favorably by other metrics (+5 runs per CHONE 2009 projections for example). As we know, Duncan also seems to love groundballers.

I started looking at park factors for Dodger Stadium. Wow! Higher is a hitter’s park, lower is a pitcher’s park 2008: 29/30. 2007: 9/32. 2006:1/32 (by a RIDICULOUS margin). 2005: 24/32. Huh.

…not merely because Sheets is a better pitcher than Lowe and I wonder how well Lowe will do out of Dodger’s park, but the nice thing about signing Sheets is that he adds to us while subtracting from the Brew-Crew, a team that finished ahead of us in the Central last season. D.GOOCH

Reading Mo’s comments about arb jumps and the budget, and then reading This post on mlbtr, help me to fully wrap my head around something I’ve been considering for quite sometime. That is of course the decisions to not offer arbitration, to several of our free agants.

And I think this makes a good case for Mo, being smarter than many have (Especially Bernie) given him credit for. Like it or not this team is a transitional team. They must find a way to stay competitive paying homage to the tradition of the franchise and paying their due to the fans. They also really need to keep this in mind with a very large impending pay day looming out there for EL HOMBRE. They need to keep the team competitive to maintain an atmosphere he wants to stay in yet they have to retain flexibility to keep him as the cornerstone of the franchise. They need to do this by creating beneficial opportunities for the youth of the team. I think if you consider that along with the impending pay raises our arb eligible players are due, you see a picture start to emerge. Consider if you will the bullpen (Selected roles are hypothetical):

CL – Perez
SU – Kinney
7th – Motte
Fireman – Franklin
Fireman – McClellan
LS – Ring
LS – MIller

That still leaves you without a swing man (unless you care to carry an 8 man pen and a short bench) and these guys to find spots for in AAA and/or in the Bullpen: Thompson, Boggs, and hopefully Piniero.

IF you offered Springer arbitration he likely accepts and pushes your payroll up considerably. Reducing your ability to create opportunities for the youth. There is one person on that list I would rather have Springer over, and that is possibly Franklin. Certainly one of Boggs or Thompson will start the year in the rotation along with Piniero. But call me crazy, I don’t think MO is done working on the rotation, and not offering Looper / Springer arbitration has allowed him to have the flexibility to have open roster spots and free money.

And yes, I will have more of that KoolAid.

1 – Rasmus
2 – Ankiel
3 – Pujols
4 – Ludwick
5 – Glaus
6 – Greene
7 – Molina
8 – Kennedy
9 – Larue
10 – Greene / Ryan / Hoffpauir
11 – Mather
12 – Duncan / Schu
13 – Barden / Freese
14 – Wainwright
15 – Lohse
16 – Wellemeyer
17 – Piniero hopefully replaced by an acquisition
18 – Carp / Boggs / Thompson
CL – Perez
SU – Kinney
7th – Motte
Fireman – Franklin
Fireman – McClellan
LS – Ring
LS – MIller

Rick Ankiel can pitch! YES! Im sure he can do better than pineiro,

Ok, im kidding, but I don’t think that we want Lowe, not because he’s a bad pitcher, but because Lohse, imo, is very similar to him. Sheets, is probably the antithesis of Lowe. I think that we should wait a little while for the prices to go down on these pitchers, and then sign a lefty specialist, and I’ll be happy with that.

Is there really no team that will take him for $2.5 M? We’d have to eat $5 M of his contract to watch him pitch somewhere else but it’d be very, very worth it.

As far as Lowe vs Sheets. I’d be more inclined to believe Sheets makes 60 starts over the next two years than Lowe makes 75 over the next 3.