Kevin Goldstein's top 11 prospect list

it's up! He loves Jones and Reifer, less love for 3B. Great things to say about the system overall.

about 1 year ago chuckb 24 comments 0 recs |

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JAMIe Garcia?

RHP?? One mistake is a typo. Two calls his research into question.

Lance Lynn at nine. Wow. That alone tells you he likes the depth of the system.

youneverknow

by meat on Jan 7, 2009 12:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agree that there is some sloppy typing/editing in the piece, but in the write-up accompanying Garcia’s entry later in the text, Goldstein lists him as an LHP and makes reference to him being a lefty. Two typos for Garcia’s name and position on the list, but I don’t think it calls the research into question — he clearly got it right (and with the right spelling of the name) in the narrative text.

by holden on Jan 7, 2009 12:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Couldn't read the whole piece

Thanks for the follow-up

youneverknow

by meat on Jan 7, 2009 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's a leftover

from last year. I pinged him about it then (and again this year), but cut-and-paste is just too easy.

That said, he did a pretty decent job of research on this list. The one omission, again something I pinged him on, was McClellan from the “top under 25” list. A guy who’s arrived in the Show and had the kind of year he did last year should qualify as top-10 on that list, which includes major leaguers under 25.

by StanTheManFan on Jan 7, 2009 8:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I am really

starting to get excited about watching Jones in Springfield this year. Let’s hope he continues to improve, he did have an awfully high BABIP last year. We all know that we could use another outfielder./sarcasm

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Jan 7, 2009 12:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Interesting difference between this and Sickels

Sickels doesn’t list Reifer at all on his list, not even in the “honorable mention” section at the bottom. I’m not a subscriber, so I didn’t get to read the breakdowns, but I would venture to say that the Goldstein’s list weighs scouting opinions more than Sickels’ does, accounting for the difference with Reifer and leaving Craig and Freese out of his top 11.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jan 7, 2009 1:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Oops...I goofed.

Reifer is 13 on the Sickels list…

Maybe it’s that I don’t see things with 13 labeled next to them…kinda like the absence of the 13th floor in hotels…….

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jan 7, 2009 1:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't get how no one likes Motte

14.8 K/9. 14.8. Fourteen point eight. Yes, big leaguers can hit 99—-but they didn’t. IMO at the very least he’s a useful 7th/8th inning reliever. If someone could point me to a single pitcher who had a blistering fb, a 12+ K/9 (again, Motte was 14.8) and a 3+ K/BB (Motte was 4.23) who didn’t turn out to be a good reliever, I’m all ears.

Not afraid to nitpick

by joker24 on Jan 7, 2009 2:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I don't get that either, but I can understand the tempering enthusiasm...

Simply because he really has a lack of any second pitch whatsoever.

As to your question:

The only guy that I can find with those numbers is Kyle Farnsworth. He didn’t throw out of the bullpen much in the minors, but in his years with the Cubs he was either very good or very bad.

In the stretches where he hits your marks, 12+ K/9 and 3+ K/BB, he was very good, he just wasn’t able to sustain those numbers over a long period of time. I think this is owed to the fact that he didn’t have a reliable second pitch, and that once hitters knew this they just sat on the fastball and hit it out of the ballpark quite a bit. I think that Motte locates his pitches much better than Farnsworth, but the data I saw over at Beyond the Boxscore yesterday shows a whole lot of 4 seam fastballs in the “meat” area of the plate, so I might be wrong on that one.

Big leaguers didn’t see a lot of Motte last year, he had only 11 innings I think, so I think the tempered enthusiasm is because most guys with his skillset aren’t able to fool hitters consistently, and that once hitters catch on, they end up getting hit really, really hard.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jan 7, 2009 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I understand tempered enthusiasm

But Reifer over Motte is just crazy to me especially coming from numbers-oriented BP.

Not afraid to nitpick

by joker24 on Jan 7, 2009 3:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I found that very perplexing too

Nice Robot

by azruavatar on Jan 7, 2009 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i didn't

while BP is mostly numbers oriented, KG is not. He’s talking to scouts, and Reifer excited a lot of scouts with his fastball/slider combo.

He’s basically Chris Perez, w/o the experience and somewhat of a checkered injury history.

I'll be the one overrating these Faberge' eggs, thank you very much!
Future Redbirds

by erik on Jan 7, 2009 5:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Somehow that adds up to being better than someone who had better stats at a higher level

Not afraid to nitpick

by joker24 on Jan 7, 2009 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's the whole 2nd pitch thing

that KG is hung up on. A lot of people are. I ranked Motte higher than Reifer, personally.

But Reifer throws as hard as Motte, and has a slider that rates a 7 on the 2-8 scale. I’m sure that’s his reasoning, which is understandable, but it is hard to argue w/Motte’s #’s, I agree.

I'll be the one overrating these Faberge' eggs, thank you very much!
Future Redbirds

by erik on Jan 7, 2009 6:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

even setting that aside

I didn’t get that he doesn’t like Motte. The way I read it, he does like Motte, perhaps not as much as Reifer and that’s worthy of argument but he seemed to have pretty good praise for him. His point — he needs to work on his second pitch. To me, that’s a valid point. I like Motte as well but we’ve seen 11 big league innings from him. I want to see more from him at the big league level. I think he can be special but I also think he’ll need at least an average slider or change before he is the solution.

by chuckb on Jan 7, 2009 8:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't you know?

Those strikeouts count for nothing because he doesn’t have a second pitch!

/sarcasm

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Jan 7, 2009 3:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

7 season

There have been only 7 seasons in major league baseball history in which a player has posted a 14+ K/9 rate and a 3+ K:BB rate.

Rob Dibble was the first to do it on the 1992 Cincinnati Reds.
Billy Wagner then did it 3 straight seasons with the Houston Astros from 1997-1999.
Also in 1999, Armando Benitez did it for the NY Mets.
The last two were in the 00’s; Eric Gagne in 2003 with the LA Dodgers and Brad Lidge in 2004 with the Astros.

Those are the 7 cases.

Wagner in ’99, Gagne, and Lidge were the only three to have over 14 K/9 and over 4 K:BB.

by stlfan on Jan 7, 2009 5:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well yeah

But Motte did it at AAA, there’s quite a few of those. Not quite a few of those with 101 mph cheddar but comparing that to the unreal big league seasons is giving him a little too much credit.

Not afraid to nitpick

by joker24 on Jan 7, 2009 9:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

with all the love for motte, on here

how is his B-R page still unclaimed? for $10 dollars, people. Somebody buy Sean Forman a beer and give Motte a clever epithet.

still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.

by SleepyCA on Jan 8, 2009 7:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Luhnow's discussion on BP is really good

Says the only difference between Rasmus and Jones is the arm. High praise for Jones. Also says that Wallace defense good enough for the Show and expects him to stay at 3B. Probably why BP doesn’t put Freese/Craig on the list. Lotta love for Niko too.

Just keep saying “Colby is only 22, Colby is only 22, Colby is only 22”

Just win

by The Duke on Jan 7, 2009 2:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wow

I have been of the perception that Jones’ power was somewhat lacking. Colby has 25hr+ power. Does Jones have that kind of power? Or Colby’s on base ability?

The Personal Finance Playbook.

by Toddius on Jan 7, 2009 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs