Hocking a LOOGY

by RunninRedbird on Jan 6, 2009 5:15 PM EST Comment 24 comments

On Monday the Cardinals signed LHRP Royce Ring. That brings the running total of LOOGY's signed this offseason to three. As much as some of us (myself included) shake our heads at yet another LOOGY signing, in actuality, it makes sense. This is simply because we have essentially let go of our three left-handed guys from last year, and we need to refill the role. Villone is gone to FA, we want no part of Flores, and Johnson has been non-tendered after not playing due to injury in '08. Now that we have a new group of left handed hurlers, I decided to take a look at some of their numbers compared to the old guys. (As well, I through in a couple of other names we may recognize)

LOOGY's	2008 IP	Car. K/9	2008 K/9	Car. BB/9	2008 BB/9	Car. FIP	2008 FIP	Car. Splits		Splits 2008
								LHB BA	LHP OBP%	LHB BA	LH OBP%
Trever Miller	43.1	7.54	9.14	4.22	4.15	4.49	3.36	0.235	0.327	0.209	0.305

Charlie Manning	42	7.93	7.93	6.64	6.64	6.06	6.06	0.203	0.284	0.203	0.284

Royce Ring	22.1	7.26	6.45	5.48	4.03	4.44	4.48	0.229	0.35	0.264	0.339

Randy Flores	25.2	7.3	5.96	3.87	7.01	4.3	5.27	0.273	0.344	0.314	0.422

Ron Villone	50	4.5	9	4.5	6.66	4.81	4.51	0.237	0.344	0.176	0.311

Tyler Johnson (2007)	38	7.6	5.68	4.91	3.79	4.93	4.84	0.228	0.326	0.224	0.307

Will Ohman*	58.2	9.01	8.13	4.36	3.38	3.91	3.17	0.197	0.285	0.2	0.257

Jeremy Affeldt**	78.1	6.81	9.19	3.97	2.87	4.23	3.66	0.25	0.335	0.269	0.301

Kyle McClellan***	75.2	7.02	7.02	3.09	3.09	3.96	3.96	0.238	0.321	0.238	0.321

So out of these new pickups Miller easily looks like the best candidate to become the regular LOOGY, IF he can stay healthy. Manning's splits look great, but that FIP is God-awful and that BB rate is pretty high. Ring looks ?okay? in his limited appearances in 2008; I know his numbers got inflated from a few bad innings late in the year.

Obviously, anyone could be better than Randy Flores was last year. I was surprised, however, at Villone's splits. They were remarkably solid. So the conclusion I came to was that if Tony uses a LOOGY only as a LOOGY, he can be an effective role player. Wild thought, I know! I was really hoping TJ could have bounced back and been effective for us, but apparently he ain't coming back.

*Now look at Mr. Ohman. Don't those numbers look pretty? I sure like them. Good FIP, Great splits (career and '08), and good K/BB ratio. And he still hasn't signed!

**Affeldt has already signed, but I just wanted to remind all of what we let go to the Giants....

***I threw K-Mac in here simply because his splits show he can be just as effective at getting lefties out as some of these other guys, and he will most likely get better.

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Editor cut off my conclusion...

From looking at these guys, it is probably safe to say the Cards have improved the left side of the pen. However, with each of these new guys, there comes a slightly higher risk then an Affeldt or Ohman would have brought to the table. Personally, I would have liked to have signed Will or Jeremy early in the offseason and have been done with it. We make that signing our one and only LOOGY, and have K-Mac as another guy who can be brought in to get lefties out…then finish that inning and possibly the next one. We have also signed Ostlund and Maekawa so they can be in AAA ready to be called up if Ohman ever got hurt. This may sound like I’m being pessimistic about this situation, but I’m not. The left side of the pen has improved, but it could have been done in a manner that makes it less of a question mark going into the season. Hopefully, the money saved by not signing Ohman or Affeldt will be used to sign a solid starting pitcher!

Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...

by RunninRedbird on Jan 6, 2009 5:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wow.

Flores just exploded last year. I know he didn’t have a lot of friends the year before, but good gravy he was awful last year. Even Manning and Ring are better than that.

I agree with you. If there had been another LH option last year, then Villone probably would have been quite good. He definitely seemed to wear down late in the year.

I wonder why the Cards targeted Miller over Ohman. I assume Ohman was asking for the moon early in free agency. Otherwise, it doesn’t really make any sense to me.

by etp_stl on Jan 6, 2009 5:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I just remember that Grand Slam that Nate McLouth hit out of PNC Park

into the water off Flores near the end of the season. I think that was his 12th hour.

by Czechguardsman on Jan 6, 2009 9:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Very interesting

I’m pretty sure the big problem we will face is that Tony won’t use these guys as LOOGYs. They will come in to face a lefty, but stay in to face 2 (or more) additional righties. That’s what will kill us. It will also kill us if Miller really is hurt and we have no more options.

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Jan 6, 2009 6:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I was really willing to give MO the benefit of the doubt

on these signings. I thought he would go out and sign another legitimate lefty, just in case Miller really is hurt. I then had to go read what he had to say in <a href=“"We’re looking at him for a specialist’s role,” Mozeliak said. “When he was stretched out, he didn’t perform as well. He’s definitely durable and wants the ball. Now we just have to decide on how to use him.”" >Strauss’ latest whatever you want to call those things Strauss puts up:

“I think we’re covered,” said general manager John Mozeliak.

Ugh. I was starting to say hey, it still might work, but then I read this:

“We’re looking at him for a specialist’s role,” Mozeliak said. “When he was stretched out, he didn’t perform as well. He’s definitely durable and wants the ball. Now we just have to decide on how to use him.”

FIrst off MO, I think you have done a pretty good job so far, but please go and read those first two sentences above, for your own good, and have Tony and Duncan read them too. Your own statement does a pretty good job of telling you people how to use him. Please don’t overthink this.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Jan 6, 2009 6:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

cool post

I had to click on it because of the title, but it’s really well thought out. the Cardinals definitely know how to make spring training interesting lately.

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 6, 2009 7:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

This is further proof that McClellan should stay in the bullpen

If he goes to the rotation and Carp is the closer than we would have to sign a legitamite LOOGY like Ohman to a multi-year deal to be better than last year. Also we should consider bringing Villone back.

by vivaelpujols on Jan 6, 2009 9:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Great job, RR

this is what a FanPost should be. The Cards seem to have taken the approach that they’re going to grab as much low-hanging fruit as possible and see if anything works. If not, we’ve lost nothing.

I would also like to see McClellan’s stats in here b/c I think he might be as effective as anyone against lefties next year. Data on Motte and Kinney, for example, would be sparse. I, too, am a fan of Ohman’s and think there’s a pretty decent chance he’ll end up w/ the Cards in ’09 once it all shakes out.

by chuckb on Jan 6, 2009 10:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Let's hope

We can get Ohman, I’m tired of us searching for players via the garbage heap.

By the way, McClellan’s stats are up there.

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Jan 6, 2009 10:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

duh! thanks

I must’ve misread that last line (or read it correctly and had a major brain fart!)

by chuckb on Jan 6, 2009 10:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Haha

It happens to the best of us

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Jan 6, 2009 10:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

garbage heap

my boss always says that nine women can’t make a baby in a month. the question for the cardinals season will be can three marginal loogys pitch like one decent loogy?

How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor

by themanthemyth on Jan 7, 2009 12:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The difference in wins for a good LOOGY like Ohman

and whichever of our garbage heap makes the roster is very minimal. According to Statcorner, Ohman last year was a 1.2 WAR pitcher. Royce Ring, despite his nifty 8.46 ERA, was a .4 WAR pitcher thank to a not so terrible FIP. You have to figure that who is able to win the second LOOGY spot on our roster will be better than Ring in 08, at least a .6 WAR player. Now you have to decide whether you would want to give Ohman 3 million a year (complete guess, but that seems pretty fair) to win an extra .6 of a game and then sign Wolf/Looper to fill out the rotation, or use that extra money to upgrade to Sheets/Lowe. To make that decision easier Sheets was a 5 WAR player, while Looper was a 1 WAR player last year.

by vivaelpujols on Jan 7, 2009 12:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think that

We should stop screwing around and take Ohman and Sheets.

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Jan 7, 2009 10:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This is nitpicky, but I'm an English teacher

So please don’t take offense, but OBP% is redundant. The P stands for percentage already.

I see these things and, as an English teacher, feel obligated to point them out.

As far as the actual content, I agree with the general concensus. If we’re going after another LOOGY, then Will Ohman seems to be the only guy worth spending money on. Otherwise, we should just find someone who can pitch effectively to both sides or use the guy we have (K-Mac) to pitch in innings where there is a big lefty coming up. Heck, he could actually finish a complete inning and probably get out a Chase Utley most of the time without any serious damage.

By the way, on another topic, I don’t remember if I saw it on MLBTR or Ben Maller’s rumors on Fox, but I saw somewhere that Mo at least inquired about Smoltz. That could be an interesting addition, if that were to happen.

Just throwing that out there.

by mtalken on Jan 7, 2009 10:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I noticed that too

And by the way, it’s consensus with an s ;)

The rotoworld sidebar says something about Mo wanting Perez to close. I for one find that interesting. It makes me like Mo more, but he’d have to get Tony to go along with the idea…

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Jan 7, 2009 11:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

I had noticed that after I published it…I also missed in my proofreading the usage of ‘through’ when I should have used ‘threw’. Oh well, that’s what I get when I don’t have anyone look over it besides myself…

Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...

by RunninRedbird on Jan 7, 2009 1:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs