Live every week like it's Prospect Week
by DanUpBaby on Jan 6, 2009 8:15 AM EST
263 comments
The stars have aligned such that this is Prospect Week: John Sickels released his eagerly awaited Top Twenty Sunday night, and Kevin Goldstein is due to release his top eleven for Baseball Prospectus on Wednesday. The major surprises on the Sickels list, I think, are Bryan Anderson at eight and Clay Mortensen at 17.
Anderson I agree with. As I said when I was ranking prospects at my old gig, I'm terrified of prospects with one skill who run out of the others too soon: the control pitchers who stop striking people out completely at AAA, the power pitchers whose walk rates go up as they climb the system, and in this case, the contact hitter who can't punish mistakes in the high minors.
What's worrying about Anderson is that he's not making any progress at his secondary skills as he moves through the system; they're actually deteriorating. Look at Anderson's isolated power trend through the minors:
| YEAR | LG | G | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | AVG | OBP | SLG | ISO |
| 2005 | R | 51 | 154 | 51 | 8 | 1 | 6 | .331 | .383 | .513 | 182 |
| 2006 | A | 109 | 381 | 115 | 29 | 3 | 3 | .302 | .377 | .417 | 115 |
| 2007/8 | AA | 122 | 469 | 147 | 20 | 1 | 8 | .313 | .358 | .412 | 099 |
| 2008 | AAA | 73 | 235 | 66 | 13 | 2 | 2 | .281 | .367 | .379 | 098 |
Of course these are still really good numbers; he's been young for every league. But even the players who hit around .300 with low ISOs hit for some power in the minors—they had enough to burn that, by the time they hit the Major Leagues, they were still capable of doing enough damage to keep the bat from getting knocked out of their hands.
Here's a frivolous, arbitrary, but vaguely pertinent Baseball Reference P-I list: at least 400 PA, .280 or better batting average, .100 or worse ISO. That gives nine players, two of whom should be intimately familiar to you right now. There are some examples, there are some counterexamples; Alexi Casilla's a very well-regarded young second baseman, and he never managed an ISO higher than Anderson's, and neither did Yadier Molina—who was, for what it's worth, rushed through the minors—or Ryan Theriot. But Aaron Miles put up a .150 ISO in AAA. Anderson's not a speedster like Casilla or Juan Pierre, either.
I haven't done a study on it any more thorough than that P-I search, but here's my concern, in the form of a baseless generalization: in general, the pitchers who get by with fringy strikeout rates, the hitters who get by without hitting for any power... they weren't already That Guy in the minors. Aaron Miles hit 34 doubles one year; Brian Bannister struck out a ton of bush leaguers. Andyrsyn's still got a lot of time to show off some doubles power, but this system is finally deep enough that a guy who needs time to develop can do it in the back of the top ten.
Another thing that's going to be interesting to watch as prospect rankings come out from all of the usual sources: the placement of David Freese and Allen Craig, the bat-first third basemen currently chasing one-another around the high minors. Sickels, a long-time fan of Craig, has them at 12 and 14, with Freese taking the lead. Future Redbirds has a great roundtable discussion up today concerning the two; their recent Top 20 had Craig at 12 and Freese at 7.
One final thing about Sickels's list: I like that he includes a lot of Honorable Mentions at the bottom of the list. In a superficial way, they're confidence-boosters: they say, "This prospect isn't top 20 material, Dan, but you're not wasting your time by checking his stats every night. Someone who actually knows how to value prospects shares your interest."
That's why I was so sad to see Thomas Pham, my tools goof white whale, not make the cut. He's so fast! He hits for such power! He's so incapable of doing anything else! If he'd made the honorable mentions I'd have held out a little more hope for a Daryl Jones-style breakout season; now my nightly look at his spot in the box score will take on a more mournful air.
On an unrelated note, I was very happy to learn that the blogger formerly known as the 26th Man—I'd link to The 26th Man, but suffice it to say that after some spammers grabbed the domain name it is less about baseball and more about sexual deviancy—is back writing about the Cardinals as the Five O'Clock Blogger. At the moment he's soliciting advice on the Lineup of the Damned, a project designed to construct Cardinals fans' least favorite lineup of all time, and he'd like some VEB input.
He picked Kenny Lofton, based on his antics in the 2002 NLCS. After minimal deliberation—which is, I think, the right kind of deliberation for this kind of project—I've decided on Carlos Zambrano. His mini-feud with Jim Edmonds, culminating in a home run follow-through that was long and majestic even by JIm Edmonds standards, was a great moment in mustache-twirling history, and every rivalry needs its villains.
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Is the title of your article a reference to 30 rock? Or am I missing the original that 30 rock referenced?
by cbsnyder on Jan 6, 2009 8:53 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Does this answer your question…
defy, cards, defy. hey logic --- you suck.
by effin fisk on Jan 6, 2009 1:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
no
I’m familiar with shark week, but on the show 30 rock, one of Tracy Jordan’s rules to live by is to: “Live every week like it’s Shark Week”
by cbsnyder on Jan 6, 2009 2:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Then mabe THIS will answer your question…
defy, cards, defy. hey logic --- you suck.
by effin fisk on Jan 6, 2009 5:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
absolutely.
The Office + 30 Rock is appointment TV on a Mark McGwire-ian level.
by DanUpBaby on Jan 6, 2009 6:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Office + 30 Rock != Lupus
It’s never lupus.
by azruavatar on Jan 6, 2009 6:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
or Wilson's Disease
but that doesn’t stop them from pitching it out there every week…
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
by nomar34 on Jan 6, 2009 7:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I've lost a lot of sleep this week
to the first season on DVD. I basically just have it on in the background whenever I’m home.
by azruavatar on Jan 6, 2009 8:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I still need to get the Season 4
I have the first 3 and can watch them over and over kind of like early West Wing…
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
by nomar34 on Jan 6, 2009 8:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's the first show I've ever bought the DVD set of.
I watched reruns on USA whenever it was on but I can’t believe I didn’t own the DVDs.
by azruavatar on Jan 6, 2009 10:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
30 Rock, The Office, and Arrested Development are all waaay better on DVD (and they were darn good to being with), w/out commercial breaks. So much easier to follow and catch random small jokes.
Between those three, the Simpsons and (guilty pleasure) Entourage, I have a hard time watching sitcoms that have a laugh track. How I Met Your Mother is the only laugh track sitcom I make sure I catch now.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
by Alxfritz on Jan 6, 2009 10:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I missed out on Arrested during its original run
but I have watched every episode on Hulu and am very glad I did…I cant wait for the movie…I just finished watching Scrubs on ABC and forgot how funny it can be…
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
by nomar34 on Jan 6, 2009 10:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Arrested Development
is my all time favorite show, followed by the Office. How Arrested Development only lasted 3 seasons is beyond me.
by Toddius on Jan 7, 2009 10:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it was too smart to get good ratings
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 7, 2009 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It might not have
ever aired it it wasn’t on Fox. I, for one, am grateful it even existed. That show is nearly perfect.
by spants on Jan 7, 2009 7:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
it was great, but narrators get pretty tiresome to me
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 8, 2009 1:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would list pretty much all of those as favorites
But I usually call How I Met Your Mother the guilty pleasure because of the laugh tracks.
Sharing non-baseball obsessions makes this blog even better than it already was.
defy, cards, defy. hey logic --- you suck.
by effin fisk on Jan 6, 2009 11:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
how I met your mother
that’s my only laugh track show, too. Barney is one of the great sitcom characters of all time.
by DanUpBaby on Jan 6, 2009 11:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ted, we're building a giant igloo in Central Park
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 6, 2009 11:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"Here's a game I like to play, called.....
Have you met Ted?" Just caught the first two episodes on Lifetime for the first time…main character is a bit iffy, but Neil Patrick Harris is a riot. Hope it gets better.
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jan 7, 2009 12:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ted gets better integrated into the weirdness after the first few episodes. and marshall becomes nearly as great as barney. definitely a grower.
by DanUpBaby on Jan 7, 2009 12:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Cool. A new old show to get caught up on.
Spent the last year buying and watching previous seasons of “Entourage”, then watching this season’s recorded on my DVR. Big fan of “The Office”, “House, MD”, and sort of a fan of “Heroes” Anyone know if “Lost” is done? Loved that weirdness. I’ve got full runs of “West Wing”, “Sopranos”, “Six Feet Under”, “Monty Python’s Flying Circus”, “Blackadder” and “The Prisoner”. What else is worth my time?
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jan 7, 2009 1:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You might like
Mad Men since you’re a Sopranos fan. It’s by a guy who wrote for The Sopranos. No killing, but plenty of family and interpersonal drama and tension. I’m obsessed with it.
by spants on Jan 7, 2009 1:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I actually caught
two or three episodes this last fall, found it interesting, then forgot all about it. Think I’ll get the first season from Netflix, see if it’s worth purchasing. Thanks for the suggestion.
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jan 7, 2009 2:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh,
one more suggestion: Brotherhood. It was on Showtime. It’s loosely based on the true story of two Rhode Island brothers, one a mobster, one a politician. Top notch acting and writing. It’s an overlooked show that may not be coming back for a third season, but is worth checking out nevertheless.
by spants on Jan 7, 2009 2:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Check out
Sons of Anarchy on FX.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
by Alxfritz on Jan 7, 2009 9:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
FX has some great shows
SoA, Nip/Tuck, The Riches, Always Sunny…It is my favorite cable network for shows probably even over HBO though Big Love, Entourage and True Blood are very good too. I don’t have Showtime but every episode I have seen of Weeds, Californication, and Dexter have been great…damn, I watch too much TV
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
by nomar34 on Jan 7, 2009 9:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No love here for Big Bang Theory?
That’s my favorite ‘new’ show (I still don’t miss an episode of How I Met Your Mother and Two and a Half Men). Maybe it’s just because I knew those guys when I was in grad school that I find Big Bang so hilarious.
by ArkansasTravs on Jan 7, 2009 10:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Some good friends at work love it...
I just can’t get into it.
I’ll give it another try someday, or so I tell myself.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
by Alxfritz on Jan 8, 2009 12:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I watched it for
5 minutes and found it BOR-ING. I’ve seen some of the actors in other things, things that were funny.
by spants on Jan 8, 2009 2:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i only watch it for Penny
and no, i’m not gonna post a pic
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
by gdm426 on Jan 8, 2009 2:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
fwiw
i enjoy big bang theory and how i met your mother
the ban camp lady is the cutiest girl ever
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Jan 8, 2009 4:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Amen to that
I watch that show mostly to see her (Barnie is great too, however).
by ArkansasTravs on Jan 9, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Psych is the same way
when they’ve been on randomly you don’t pick up on the little small jokes that carry over in back to back episodes.
Watching it on DVD though makes it even funnier.
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 6, 2009 11:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i seriously thought i was the only person alive who watched Psych
good to know i’m not
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
by gdm426 on Jan 7, 2009 2:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm with you on that one, too.
Some of the most obscure 80s references I’ve ever heard in public.
by etp_stl on Jan 7, 2009 9:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
psych is also a great show
I also watch Monk. Does that make me old?
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Jan 8, 2009 4:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
TV shows on DVD
I’ve got a couple seasons of LOST on DVD. Find waiting a week for a new episode annoying. Now I just DVR three or four episodes and catch up en masse.
by liam on Jan 8, 2009 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I feel bad for you
because Season 1 has been on USA all week, in order, every night.
I’ve been recording it to my PC in HD = DVD quality.
HL for teh winz
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 6, 2009 11:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+100
not one thousand. But definitely one hundred.
if you can’t trust a southern lawyer cooking a kosher meal in a dumpster,
well, then, the world has grown far too cynical
by RosevilleRedbird on Jan 6, 2009 7:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bryan Anderson
The more I see of him, the less enthusiastic I become. I watched him quite a bit in Springfield in 2007 which gave me nice warm feelings about him in ‘07, but he doesn’t seem to really evolve or grow as a player. Like you mentioned, in some respects he’s even regressing. For a guy whose name was once bandied about in potential blockbuster trades a year or two ago, he sure is lagging behind.
by mynameistyler on Jan 6, 2009 9:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Scouts always say
that power is the last thing to come to a prospect. Bryan Anderson turned 22 last month. He has good contact skills and hits line drives. Plus, he hits left handed, which I think is a skill in itself for a catcher. He’s all the way in Triple A because he’s had some success with the bat at every level. He should be entering his senior year of college this year, just learning what wooden bats are all about. Instead, he’ll likely be in spring training with the big club. He plays a premium position and reports indicate his defense is improving. I like his chances of being a big leaguer.
I’m not criticizing the rankings, because Sickels knows more than I do. I think the fact that he’s at the bottom of the top ten says our system has improved, not that Anderson has regressed. Give him time.
by Toddius on Jan 6, 2009 10:24 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I have no doubt he can be a big-leaguer
But my high, high hopes for him being a franchise cornerstone are dwindling. That little voice inside me says, “Just wait, he’s still young, just wait, the power can still come…” but I still am getting a little impatient. A catcher with average defense who can hit .300 without much power is a nice thing to have, but it’s not a hugely valuable commodity. After all, Yadi is (hopefully) all that plus the best catching defense in baseball…and even he’s not considered a premiere player.
I’ll try to be patient, but my dreams of flipping Anderson for an amazing young middle infielder or starter are dwindling. He’s just not that valuable until he starts hitting with some pop.
by mojowo11 on Jan 6, 2009 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Patience is obviously not a virtue you possess
He is the 4th youngest player in the entire PCL
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 6, 2009 4:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think if
your system produces big leaguers, you are succeeding at player development. I know you aren’t arguing that our system is failing, and I’m not trying to change the argument…I just want to make that statement.
by Toddius on Jan 6, 2009 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sickels' List
I think Mortenson is about where he should be. He’s shown some potential but is struggling to get it all put together. I also think that Duncan’s comments on him last spring training show that he at least has some potential at the big league level if he can improve his command.
My biggest surprise, other than Anderson who I thought might be a little higher considering his age and his premium defensive position, is that John Jay is in the top 10. I like him as player too, but I feel like his ceiling is quite a bit lower than that of guys like Boggs, Mortensen, and Freese, and I don’t think Jay is a player that’s going to make a leap to the big leagues during 2009 either. I think he’s a solid defender but he doesn’t steal bases very well, and he looks to be a poor man’s Skip Schumaker unless his ISO improves in the next couple of seasons…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 6, 2009 10:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Bingo
I think some of the criticisms of Anderson’s game have validity, but I don’t think he belongs below Todd and Jay, especially Jay as I have seen more of him. I think Anderson compares favorably to Yadi offensively and if Mike Matheney says Anderson will make it as a catcher, that is good enough for me. If you double Anderson’s AAA numbers that comes out to 26 doubles and four triples to go along with that consistently high OBP. I hope we have seven prospects better than him, but I doubt it.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Jan 6, 2009 1:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
is there such a thing?
I thought Skip was the poor man’s Skip Schumaker…Jay has shown better on base skills and has been a ++defender in CF where as Skip is just an average corner OF…i dont know if Jay’s success will translate to the majors but he is a lot higher regarded than Skip ever was.
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
by nomar34 on Jan 6, 2009 2:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Skip vs. Jay
Skip is actually an above average corner outfielder and an average centerfielder, but I wasn’t comparing their defense, I was comparing their offense:
Skip Schumaker (AA stats, age 24): .316/.387/.419/.806 17 steals in 29 attempts; 516 AB’s
John Jay (AA stats, age 23): .306/.379/.457/.836 10 steals in 17 attempts; 372 AB’s
Over the course of another 140 AB’s, Jay probably gets another 10 or so steal attempts, and at his current percentage would have around 17 steals.
Assuming that last part, they are VERY similar players with the stick at this point. Jay may be a better defender, but I think Skip may be his ceiling as an offensive player. So I stand by my point.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 6, 2009 3:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Plus
all of Jay’s limited power has been achieved vs. RHPs. He has zero career HRs vs LHPs and a career ISO of .068 against them. With limited speed, limited ability to play everyday, and very little power he would have to be a GG-caliber CF to be any better than Skip.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Jan 6, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
skip
so you’re saying that skip can hit lefties better than jay can? skip is the definition of platoon player at this point
by Glowsticks on Jan 6, 2009 3:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No...
he’s saying that they’re both similar in the fact that they neither hits lefties well.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 6, 2009 3:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Skip was disastrous in 2008 vs LHPs
but very good in 2007 although it was only 24 ABs. What I am saying is that the only way he can be better than Skip is if his defense is phenomenal in CF. Otherwise, they look to be pretty much the same player.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Jan 6, 2009 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think it should be said
That while they might be the same player, Skip Schumaker isn’t worthless. He’s at least a solid major leaguer, probably a very good fourth OF. You can’t discount the value of that, even if he’s not Colby Rasmus.
by mojowo11 on Jan 6, 2009 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think you are exactly correct
and didn’t mean to imply otherwise. I just think there are guys lower than Jay on Sickel’s list that have more upside than Jay.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Jan 6, 2009 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Which is exactly what I said in the OP.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 6, 2009 5:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
I think Skip is an above average center fielder and a average to below average corner OFer. This is taking into account offensive skills plus defensive skills. He is a slightly below average defensive CFer but above average with the stick. Most corner OFer’s are much better offensively than Skip.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 6, 2009 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't disagree with any of that statement...
except that only being able to hit righties well is a serious disadvantage. Both Skip and Jay are pretty horrific hitters against left handed pitching, which screams 4th outfielder to me.
I was talking strictly about defense in terms of whether he was above average, but he does have below average offense for a corner outfielder. I would say that he’s around average to slightly above-average for a centerfielder, if you assume that his 2008 numbers are his average numbers and not a career high, which is an awfully big assumption for a guy with a little over 850 MLB PA’s.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 6, 2009 3:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think you
can point to any metric that would show Skip as an above average CF. For example, his UZR/150 is -6.8 which puts him 31st out of the 46 MLB CFs who played 300+ innings at the position. He was 14th in wOBA at .341. If he could maintain his offense and improve his defense he would be an average CF. Of course, if he played everyday it is likely his offense would suffer.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Jan 6, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you are cherry picking one season there, arent you?
for their minor league careers :
Skip- .290/.353/.385/.738
Jay- .308/.377/.443/.820
Skip had more at bats at higher levels but Jay looks to beat him in the most important basic stats. Jay might not be able to hit for power against lefties but Skip hasn’t hit at all against them so that inst much of an argument I don’t think. I don’t think either one of them is great but Jay is better on offense and defense and has been acknowledged as such in a lot of the rankings…Skip was never ranked that well…
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
by nomar34 on Jan 6, 2009 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He may be somewhat better
than Schumaker, but not enough to merit his current ranking. At best, he will be a good OBP, no power, no speed guy who will struggle to play everyday. Unless he becomes the second coming of Beltran on defense, he will not be a significant player. No power + no speed = MIF or Catcher.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Jan 6, 2009 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i am just arguing that
Jay has more potential than Schu therefore is not a “poor man’s Skip Schumaker” like he said…also im not sure why you are under estimating getting on-base it is by far the most important thing to do and what about the no power? he has had plenty of power in each of his stops to me he looks like a very good leadoff hitter potentially…most likely better than the one we had last year.
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
by nomar34 on Jan 6, 2009 7:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You'll have to argue with fourstick
about the “poor man’s Skip Schumaker” remark. My argument is that he is ranked too high on Sickel’s list. I don’t know for sure where you are getting the ++defense impression – do you have a metric you can point to? I have seen him play a number of times in college and MiLB and my impression is that he doesn’t have enough speed to be a good MLB CF. Hence, I don’t think he projects enough power to be a corner OF for a good team. He’s valuable and at least some scouts think his bat will play in the bigs, but I don’t think he belongs ahead of several of the players on Sickel’s list.
His MLE based on his Springfield numbers is .243/.316/.339/.655. I have nothing personal against the dude, I just think he is going to have to consistently hit over .300 to be valuable. Our leadoff position last year hit a cumulative .289/.345/.388/.733 with 16 steals and 24 GDPs. It certainly could use some improvement as it only sported the sixth best OBP out of the eight hitter spots.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Jan 7, 2009 1:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
BP has FRAA for minor leagues
I dont have a direct link to the stats but Erik at FR states he was a +17 fielder according to BP…I will agree that over the last two season watching him play in Springfield I was not wowed by his defense and I have seen him at least 20 times but I have learned not to trust my eyes unless there is something to back it up…
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
by nomar34 on Jan 7, 2009 8:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm cherry picking...LOL
You’re comparing 894 at-bats, 58 in AAA, to 2615 at-bats with 1044 of them in AAA. At least mine compares a similar sample size at the same level of play at a similar age (which is why I chose it). Yours just make your argument look good — is isn’t even close to being a fair comparison.
Skip’s numbers are comparable at every stop Jay has made so far, so to say they are similar players with the bat is quantifiable. I can’t find the splits for Jay, but if his ISO is that bad, he must not make good contact against them (he would have more extra base hits otherwise), so I can’t believe the he hits lefties well enough to be a non-platoon player.
Jay is better on offense and defense and has been acknowledged as such in a lot of the rankings
So because he’s on the radar and listed he’s going to be a better player? That’s about as subjective as you can get. There are plenty of players that end up being productive that weren’t high on scout’s lists at one time, Pujols was one of them (albeit a drastic example). Just because Skippy wasn’t rated high as a prospect doesn’t mean that he wasn’t as good as Jay at the AA level or wasn’t a comparable player to him. This comparison is also why I think some people, like Sickels, may have him overrated. Being on a ranked list isn’t a self fulfilling prophecy.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 6, 2009 4:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you Fourstick...
I thought you chose proper datat…… That’s all you can do is compare guys at similar minor league stops and the age at that stop.
But why are we arguing?
Colby Rasmus is the CF of the future. Jay even if he as slightly more power than Skip is a terrible corner OF option when you have guys like Mather who have actual power.
So I guess I don’t get what the back and forth is all about at this point.
Jay does not excite me as he does not stand out compared to what the Cards have and have in the pipe line
by ICbirdfan on Jan 6, 2009 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That was kind of my original point
Sickels has Jay ranked ahead of guys like Boggs, Mortenson, and David Freese, who was the PCL player of the year last season. I think all of those guys have a higher upside and the ability to have a more dramatic impact on the ballclub in the future than John Jay does.
I don’t really think Jay has a place with the Cardinals, but regardless of that, I don’t think he’s as good a major league prospect (for the reasons I stated above), as 4 or 5 guys that are ranked below him on the scale.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 6, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jay's minor league splits
vs. LHPs are: .267/.361/.335/.696 with a GB% of 57.4 and IF/F% of 11.3. And that is with a .331 BABIP. He has a good batting eye, but if they make him swing the bat not much good happens.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Jan 6, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Where do you get minor league split info from?
I haven’t yet found a site that does that, not even B-R, and they do everything except defense and saber stats.
i’m just wondering what Schu’s minor league splits were, to see if he did well at that level and just couldn’t handle the move up…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 6, 2009 5:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Minor Leage Splits
by holden on Jan 6, 2009 5:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
damn...that site is buggy
tons of .500 errors and only gives current data…not really what I’m looking for.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 6, 2009 5:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed that the site is buggy. Also, the user interface and navigability are not great. That being said, it is a very good source of info for players who played in the minors last year (I’m sure they have historical info back a number of years and you could get info on players who did not play in the minors last year, but I’m not sure how to access it). In its present, buggy iteration, you can at least see historical splits for players such as Jay who did play in the minors last year.
by holden on Jan 6, 2009 5:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think they finally got the data
up for previous years. At least for the players I was checking on. They have the complete history for the majority of the Cardinals’ current minor leaguers.
It is a pretty poor site though.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Jan 6, 2009 6:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i acknowledged the fact that Skip had more at-bats
he is on the radar because he has been a better player which is what i said. Because he is on the radar and because he has put up better numbers and because he is better defensivly he has the potential to be better therefore should not be labeled a poor mans skip schumaker when he is in fact a better prospect than Skip ever was.
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
by nomar34 on Jan 6, 2009 7:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You're taking a whole lot of offense to one perceptive quote
Did you read the whole post? Or did you just find the subjective point at the end that you disagree with most?
The OP was mostly about the fact that I thought Sickels had him rated to high on the Cardinals prospect list. I don’t think he’s a B- player — I think it’s a stretch to say that he’s even a C+. That doesn’t mean the he doesn’t have value, it means that he’s not more valuable or even a better prospect than guys that were rated lower.
Look, if he’s as good as Skippy, he’ll find a spot on a major league roster somewhere, but I don’t think he’s good enough defensively (as in speedy) to be an everyday centerfielder (if he was a 20 homer slugger I think you could put up with his glove there but he’s not) and that his bat isn’t going to play well in the corner outfield spots. Obviously he could go all Joe Mather on us and drastically improve in his age 24-26 seasons, but I’m not sure that’s likely and I certainly wouldn’t wager on it. Also, if he’s our 8th best prospect, then it seems to me that he’d have more trade value than most of the guys behind him, but I don’t think teams would be calling about John Jay before they would Mitchell Boggs, Jason Motte, Brian Anderson, Jaime Garcia, David Freese, Pete Kozma, and Allen Craig. I think he’s a nice player, but that he has a much lower ceiling than any of those other guys I just listed. That’s why I have an issue with where he was ranked.
The comment about Schu was simply in reference to the fact that they seem like the same type of player to me, subjectively. They both are guys who will hit between .280 and .300, get on base at a .335-.355 clip, but that aren’t above average center fielders and hence will have trouble finding regular work in the outfield because they don’t hit enough to play the corner spots for most teams.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 7, 2009 11:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jon Jay is my son
that is why i took offense to it…of course i am kidding and i don’t know why that quote stuck with me…i think Jay was rated a little high by Sickles but not as bad as you obviously and think he has the potential to be David DeJesus which is not great but solid…
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
by nomar34 on Jan 7, 2009 12:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lineup of the Damned
I have two entries:
Rob Mackowiak: The man straight KILLED the Cardinals in his seasons with the Pirates. He put up Pujolsian numbers every time they played the Cardinals and league average numbers against everyone else.
Kenny Rogers: lies, damn lies, and “dirt”. Punched any cameraman lately, gambler?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 6, 2009 10:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
+1 on Rogers
I STILL hate the guy.
How about Backe? He’s a Cardinal villan, amiright???
by Ray Lankford on Jan 6, 2009 10:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
more villians
This may be too ancient, but Jeffery `One-flap down’ Leonard circa ’87 deserves mention.
More contemporary: Lance Berkman. Dude kills the Redbirds.
by 10worldchamps on Jan 6, 2009 10:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Berkman
is a Card Killer. He is always so complimentary of Albert though that I sort of like him. Plus, he’s got a “bad body,” and has always been a good player. I like those things about him. But he does crush the ball against us.
by Toddius on Jan 6, 2009 11:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Plus
I like watching him just cream a ball and shirk the usual home run pose in place of laying his bat on the ground like it was a Faberge egg. He’s too classy to be a villain.
by meat on Jan 6, 2009 1:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A + on both of you
I’ve always liked Berkman. I’ve seen him described as “Pujols-lite” but that seems unfair since it’s not really all that lite… he’s simply awesome. I also really like Beltran and used to dislike/fear him for his past post-season exploits. But I think Wagonmaker brought karmic balance on that one.
by mattybobo on Jan 6, 2009 1:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
bad bodies unite!
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
by nomar34 on Jan 6, 2009 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
awh yeah
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 6, 2009 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i don't have a bad body like Fat Elvis
there’s just more of me to love
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
by gdm426 on Jan 6, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone with nicknames like...
Fat Elvis and the Big Puma can’t be bad.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Jan 6, 2009 7:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm working on turning this bad body into a glorious body
30 minutes at a time
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
by jd is legend on Jan 6, 2009 4:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
so is Berkman
the all time champion of bad bodies? (well, except for the Babe I guess)
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 6, 2009 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Prince Fielder
careful… I feel a magnitude 6.3 tremor coming on looking at this picture!
by streamman on Jan 6, 2009 5:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
to keep the TV show theme going...
“Dammit Jonny! You know I love my Big Beef and Cheddar!”
defy, cards, defy. hey logic --- you suck.
by effin fisk on Jan 6, 2009 11:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh wait
Do you mean in terms of how good they are vs. their bad bodies?
Not sure Kruk applies then, but that photo rocks.
by spants on Jan 6, 2009 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
kruk was good
but nowhere near as good as berkman
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 6, 2009 7:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Obviously.
But when I hear “bad body” and “baseball” I just instantly go to John Kruk.
by spants on Jan 7, 2009 12:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Tony Gwynn.
How does a roly poly hit the ball that well. I just don’t understand.
by etp_stl on Jan 7, 2009 12:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lineup of the Damned
Are players on this list because they do very well against the Cards, because they’re pricks, or because they’re pricks while they’re doing very well against the Cards? The last one seems like the best approach, but just based on overachievement a decent catcher for the list might be the extremely mediocre Cubs backup catcher Henry Blanco, who always seems to hit like Mike Piazza against St. Louis. As far as I know he’s a nice enough guy though.
by BTown Birds fan on Jan 6, 2009 10:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
It's whatever you want them to be
The only caveat is that their villainy was performed on the field. Thank you to all who visited and contributed.
by Anonymous Communist on Jan 6, 2009 11:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Michael Barrett hit the Cards pretty well too
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song:
by gocards62 on Jan 6, 2009 6:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Craig Counsell
He always seems to do well against the Cards, although I don’t remember him ever really acting like a prick.
by saladdays on Jan 6, 2009 11:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Beltran
Carlos kill’s the cards in the postseason. I’d also put Endy Cavez up there just for that catch off Rolen. Ryan Howard also has pretty good numbers against us. I wasn’t so sure if this line-up was based on being a prick, or just killing us.
On another note, I’ve decided that if the flubs do sign Milton Bradley the Cards should go and find a pair of brother relivers named Parker. Sorry bad joke of the morning.
by Gibson on Jan 6, 2009 11:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
That Endy Chavez catch still gives me chills
Maybe it’s because I know how it all turned out, but I actually enjoy watching that catch.
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
by jd is legend on Jan 6, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's a great moment. Rolen handled it very well also.
I think I remember him being asked about getting robbed of a homerun, and his response was something like “you mean when I hit into that double play?” Of course, winning probably made it feel a lot better…
by mattybobo on Jan 6, 2009 1:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I remember him saying it was "a tough inning for #27"
Because of that key error he had in the bottom half. Fortunately, Suppan sacked up and got out of the inning.
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
by jd is legend on Jan 6, 2009 1:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
2006 NLCS Game 7 on MLB Network
Not sure if this has been mentioned elsewhere, but the MLB Network has replayed the 2006 NLCS Game 7 at least once and is scheduled to do so again this Saturday at 8:00 p.m. EST.
Highlights from the 1946 World Series between the Cardinals and the Red Sox are on the same day at 4:30 p.m. EST. There’s also a program providing an inside look at Busch Stadium (not sure which iteration) that is being broadcast at various times this week and next).
by holden on Jan 6, 2009 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That is Cathedrals of the Game
it is Busch II. The program aired on MOJO since 2004.
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 6, 2009 11:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of bad bodies
wouldn’t Ryan Howard qualify?
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jan 7, 2009 1:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
WOULDNT IT BE FUNNY IF....
The Yankees also signed Ben Sheets, and the Brewers only received a 4th Round draft pick?
by Czechguardsman on Jan 6, 2009 12:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Better to the Yankee's than a NL team
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 6, 2009 12:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would....
I think they should have to surrender a first round pick in 2008 for the first type A, 2009 for the second type A, 2010 for the third type A, and so on. It’s like they punished LESS the more type A players they sign.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 6, 2009 12:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That wouldn't work.
A few years down the road, they could owe their next 10-15 first round picks. How is that good for baseball?
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Jan 6, 2009 12:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How is it good for baseball? Or how is it good for the Yankees?
It’s definitely good for baseball. Teams with large amounts of cash like New York would simply give up drafting in the first round so they could sign established veteran star players. The teams that lose those free agents would be guaranteed a first round pick for losing their (probably) former first round picks. It further balances the game out by giving the teams that lose top players the option to rebuild through the draft. I would rather have someone else’s first round pick 3 years in a row than get their 1st, 2nd, and 4th round picks in the same draft.
It’s not good for teams like the Yankees, because they would find it more difficult to build from both directions since they wouldn’t have very many picks in the first round. They probably would lose some type A free agents to gain some first round picks, but very few teams besides them sign multiple type A’s in a single year anyway, because few can afford it.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 6, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Another Choice
Baseball does need to fix its system of compensation. The Yankees can go sign 5 type A free agents and only give up 1 first round pick. (They fill those holes by outbidding everyone on Japanese league players or cuban defectors.)
Perhaps baseball should take a look at the way hockey had done this. The Yankees go sign whoever they want, but they can only protect 15 players (or pick a number) The team that lost the player would be able to choose the draft pick, or select an unprotected player of choice from the Yankees or their farm system. This system would help balance things a little more and give the robbed team something of more value than a 5th round pick.
How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!
by Elvis on Jan 6, 2009 2:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was laughing my @$$ off when the Yanks signed Teixeria
and the Brewers were only getting a 2nd round pick. How badly would that suck for the B.CREW if they wound up with only a 2nd and 4th rounder, or even just a second rounder, say, Sheets signed with the Mets or whoever also signs Ramirez this offseason. The Crew were counting on two 1st Round Picks a compensation.
That is an awesome idea about being able to pick an unprotected player instead of take the Draft Pick, especially considering choosing from a club that would be rich in Major League talent like the Yankees.
by Czechguardsman on Jan 6, 2009 9:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
OR.. I just thought of this...
IF the Yankees also sign Ramirez this offseason, would the Brewers only get a 3rd Rounder for Sabathia. Who was the higher-rated player? Ramirez or Sabathia?
by Czechguardsman on Jan 6, 2009 9:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jim Thome
Career OPS of 1.575 vs. STL in over 130 PA’s. I double dare you to find someone better vs. the birds. :)
by southsidepat on Jan 6, 2009 12:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
To put that number in context...
Beltran put up a 1.521 in 32 plate appearences in the 2004 NLCS vs. the Cards. Add 100 PA’s at a slightly better rate, and you get Jim Thome’s career vs. the Cardinals.
by southsidepat on Jan 6, 2009 12:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's crazy
Braun, in 112 PAs has a 1.252 OPS vs the Cardinals. Here’s hoping that number goes down and not the way of the Thome over the next 20 PAs.
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 6, 2009 12:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How about
Ryan Braun
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 6, 2009 12:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
He seems cocky to me... is that just perception? A side effect of the whole un-tucking thing?
He is a beast, as Toddius states above, and if he improves his walk rate he’ll be even beastlier. When I see his name I am always reminded of the time I heard Pujols say “Bryang Braund” when he was asked about the MVP discussion…
by mattybobo on Jan 6, 2009 1:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think
your perception is probably accurate. He seems to have a pretty high opinion of himself. Of course, he has had a lot of success so far. It’s hard to like cocky guys unless they play for your team…or your fantasy team. Some people would call Albert cocky, we just call him the mang, or el hombre.
by Toddius on Jan 6, 2009 2:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
El Douchey is way too cocky for his own good
that entire team is. mark my words it will bite them in the ass.
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
by gdm426 on Jan 6, 2009 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He does seem cocky
Sometimes it irks me a little, but at least he backs it up. It bugs me more when someone like Jose Castillo does a bat-flip after homering or something like that. At least be good if you’re gonna act like you’re awesome.
(Not saying Castillo is a showboat, BTW, just picking a random crappy-ish player.)
by mojowo11 on Jan 6, 2009 4:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i think it's the bug-eyes
combined with the fact that he is, indeed, pretty cocky.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
by SleepyCA on Jan 6, 2009 8:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Anderson month to month
Anderson is currently the 4th youngest player in the PCL. I don’t think you can judge him with out looking at his month by month numbers.
Look at his numbers from last 2 years month to month
2007 in Springfield
Split PA AB ISOP HR BB% K% BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
April 60 55 .255 2 8.3% 20.0% .390 .327 .383 .582 .410
May 93 79 .051 1 11.8% 10.8% .279 .253 .344 .304 .294
June 85 78 .102 2 4.7% 14.1% .438 .385 .400 .487 .384
July 88 80 .025 0 6.8% 20.5% .355 .275 .330 .300 .290
August 96 90 .044 0 4.2% 26.0% .354 .256 .281 .300 .260
2008 April in Springfield the rest in Memphis
Split PA AB ISOP HR BB% K% BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
April 87 81 .136 2 4.6% 13.8% .433 .383 .402 .519 .397
May 75 67 .105 0 8.0% 16.0% .436 .358 .400 .463 .377
June 63 54 .166 1 12.7% 9.5% .340 .315 .413 .481 .383
July 63 52 .039 0 14.3% 17.5% .341 .269 .365 .308 .302
August 69 59 .085 1 11.6% 23.2% .238 .186 .275 .271 .242
For the past 2 years he has posted solid 1st half numbers and poor 2nd half numbers. So it seems his biggest issue right now is stamina which is not atypical of a catcher sliding in the 2nd half.
You are also completely skipping over the most important issue about Anderson, he is left handed. Why is it so important of an issue? Do you know the last time a left handed catcher even played in a major league game? 1983!!!!!!!!!!! Benny Distefano played 3 games at catcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates, becoming only the fourth southpaw to step behind the place since the AL and NL merged.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 6, 2009 12:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Anderson hits LH....... he does not throw LH
by ICbirdfan on Jan 6, 2009 12:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I know that and thats a good thing
There definitely seems to be some kind of discrimination against left handed throwing catchers but the rarity of situation gives Anderson additional value imo. That fact he is throws right handed allows him not to get discriminated against BUT still allows you to get a left handed bat in a position where it almost never comes from.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 6, 2009 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's not really true
There’s a lot of lefty-hitting catchers just running down the top 15 catchers in ABs last year (a rough-ish way to get a look at the current MLB prolific catchers):
R -
Russell Martin
Bengie Molina
Kurt Suzuki
Jason Kendall
Geovany Soto
Ramon Hernandez
Yadi
Ivan Rodriguez
Kenji Johjima
L or S -
Joe Mauer
AJ Pierzynski
Brian McCann
Ryan Doumit
Dioner Navarro
Jason Varitek
Clearly there are a lot more righty-only hitting catchers, for obvious reasons. Nonetheless, there’s actually a fairly substantial crop of catchers that hit lefty or switch — Jorge Posada and Victor Martinez jump to mind as some other more established guys, and Jarod Saltalamacchia and Jeff Clement are some younger ones that you’ll see more of in the future. So it’s not actually that rare or that big of a deal.
Now if he threw lefty, that’d be something.
by mojowo11 on Jan 6, 2009 4:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Now I wish didn't even bring it up
It was just something I remembered in reading the book recently and didn’t think it all the way through. Not one person has even brought up the more important fact about his 1st half vs 2nd half stats.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 6, 2009 5:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe I'm missing something...
but how does throwing left vs. right make a difference as a catcher? Also, that doesn’t change the fact that Anderson throws right and bats left; no different than Joe Mauer, Jeff Clement, Brian McCann, or AJ Pierzynski (to name a few catchers currently in the bigs).
by southsidepat on Jan 6, 2009 1:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Best Guesses on the adversion to a left handed throwing catcher
- A Quickly thrown baseball will fade in the direction of the catcher’s throwing arm. For a right-hander the ball will tail toward a runner stealing a base, and for the lefty it will tail away.
- The “framing” of pitches – so that the umpire is more likely to call borderline pitches strikes- is harder for lefties
- The limited availability of left handed catcher’s mitts prevents left handed players from learning the position as they grow up.
The Baseball Economist: The Real Game Exposed
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 6, 2009 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
C, 2B, SS, and 3B
All are positions that should never* be played by (throwing) lefties
*never say never
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
by jd is legend on Jan 6, 2009 1:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Infielders I agree with
Double plays would be nearly impossible for lefty MIFs, and fielding bunts or dribblers and throwing to first would be near impossible for a lefty third baseman.
But I can’t really figure out why catchers couldn’t throw lefty. I knew a lefty-throwing catcher once. He did fine. I think part of it (in addition to the ideas listed above) is the idea that there are more righty batters, which gets in the way of a lefty-catcher’s throw to second…but I don’t really think that that is a very big deal, especially at the major league level, where there are so many lefty bats.
by mojowo11 on Jan 6, 2009 4:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Other reasons
Most batters are righthanded, and would cause more difficulties on a throw to 2b on a steal. But RH throwers seem to deal with LH batters okay.
Throwing to 3b on a steal attempt is awkward for a LH thrower.
On your best guesses:
The framing of pitches issue I don’t get — why would it be any harder for lefties?
Limited availability of LH catcher’s mitts seems circular. If there were more LH catchers, there’d be more mitts available.
by Perry on Jan 6, 2009 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Probably the real reason
If you are a lefthanded kid good at baseball, where is the coach going to put you first? Right, on the mound. If that doesn’t work, then where? Outfield or first base. If you can’t do those then, I guess, catcher, since it’s quite difficult to be a LH 3B, SS, or 2B. So, catcher is sort of a last resort for LH kids. And if you are playing the “last resort” position as a kid, you’re not going to make it to the big leagues. Not even close.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Jan 6, 2009 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bradbury's point
was that it really doesn’t matter much at all — even w/ the awkward throws to 3B.
by chuckb on Jan 6, 2009 2:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His other point
His other point was that if you are a left-handed catcher, thus having a decent arm, you’re more valuable (likely) to your organization to develop as a pitcher.
by lightbulb on Jan 6, 2009 2:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Can somebody explain something to me...
Yadi doesn’t seem to have a problem making quick, right-handed throws to first base to pick guys off. Why should a lefty catcher have much of a problem making throws to third? Is it because the batter will more often be a righty, which would block him somewhat?
by mattybobo on Jan 6, 2009 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You hit the nail on the head...
Is it because the batter will more often be a righty, which would block him somewhat?
You don’t often see Yadi snap-throwing to first with a lefty in the batters box, for much same reason that a lefty throwing catcher would have trouble making that throw to first. I also think that lefties would have a tougher time fielding bunted balls down the third base line (where more than 1/2 of all bunted balls go).
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 6, 2009 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
down the 3rd base line
that would seem to be much easier, they could just run to it and throw instead of having to spin around and throw. not that this much matters since anderson is a righty thrower anyways
by Glowsticks on Jan 6, 2009 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Disagree.
They’d be moving down the third base line and away from the base. They’d have to stop an throw, instead of using a reverse pivot and setting their feet. I’ve seen lefty catchers at the high school level as an umpire, and it’s extremely awkward to watch them field a bunt…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 6, 2009 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Snap throw
I disagree with what you say about Yadi throwing to first with a lefty in the box. He does that a lot. He calls for an inside pitch and then fires behind the batter. Announcers have said he prefers to throw to first when a LH hitter is up because the runner at first can’t see what he’s doing as clearly as when a RH hitter is up.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Jan 6, 2009 4:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Yadi’s very good at that. What you didn’t mention is that he slides his whole body to get the clearance he needs. The problem with that is that while you can certainly plan to shift your body over if you’re planning on picking to first, you can’t really do that when a guy is stealing third. So getting that clearance would be harder, especially if the pitch is outside.
by mojowo11 on Jan 6, 2009 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't want to jump in and disrupt this thread........
If anyone is interested Harry Pavlidis over at Beyond the Box Score did a write up yesterday on Motte, Perez, and Carpenter using Pitch FX data…. He analyzed which one would be an ideal closer….
Just an interesting write up you should take a quick peek at.
by ICbirdfan on Jan 6, 2009 12:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Interesting.
Thanks for the recommendation.
by cardsgirl95 on Jan 6, 2009 1:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
put the link in a FanShot
not FanPost, but FanShot
by chuckb on Jan 6, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
here's two villains from 2008:
Elijah Dukes and Bill Hall. I don’t like them.
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 6, 2009 2:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
or
anyone from the Pirates or Brewers really
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 6, 2009 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree on Dukes
saw the game in DC when he went yard on Franklin in the 10th. Total jerk.
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song:
by gocards62 on Jan 6, 2009 6:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Evil
Jeffrey Leonard, Carlos Zambrano, Keith Hernandez, Daryl Strawberry, Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Ryne Sandberg (he was a nice guy) Dusty Baker, Don Dekinger, Greg Luzinski, Tug McGraw, Pete Rose, Jose Cruz, (another nice guy) Lloyd McClendon, Ron Cey, Elijah Dukes, Ryan Braun, Rob Dibble
How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!
by Elvis on Jan 6, 2009 2:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'd go with Brandon Backe
Mainly because the dude gets punished every time he runs his mouth, and it’s entirely rewarding.
Screw you, Aaron Miles. "Hope you tear your ACL, jackass!!" - Carl
by Zoop on Jan 6, 2009 2:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't know
villian seems too strong. I always feel bad for him. He always takes the blame, and usually looks like someone shot him in the stomach when he messes up. It’s tough for me to view him as a villian.
by Toddius on Jan 6, 2009 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He lied about his injury
twice and nearly cost the team the division in 2006 and probably cost them the Wild Card in 2008.
I don’t blame him for being hurt, I blame him for continuing to go out there whilst it was happening.
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 6, 2009 2:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree completely
but I still think villain is a little strong.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Jan 6, 2009 3:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If his lying
had led to victory he’d be a hero. He’s stupid, but not a villain.
by spants on Jan 6, 2009 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
to be fair, he pretty much screamed “i’m not effective” for weeks before getting on the DL.
it took hitting a tv to get him there
One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.
by AdjustedExpectations on Jan 6, 2009 10:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
I can forgive him for ’06 (of course), but ’08 was pretty bad.
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 6, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
recent NL central signings
sorry to be off topic, but it isn’t fanpost worthy and where else to go?
My initial reaction to the Ring signing was more positive than warrented (had ring confused with rauch)…….he’s probably better than the LHPs we had, but it still feels a bit like “A Charlie Brown Halloween”……where other teams get great stuff and we keep getting punchlines from “Moneyball”
Since I was touting Bradley as our ‘impact bat’ acquisition, it should come as no surprise that I’m disappointed he ended up with the Cubs. Not only do I think he was probably the most cost effective impact option and will be a big addition for the small bears; I’m also saddened to realize that I think like a cubs GM. No Cardinal fan should be faced with that.
additionally, having recently read the book on the Gas house gang, I have concerns, if the Cubs eventually manage to pull this off, that this collection of malcontents, hotheads, munchkins, etc will achieve a more storied place in baseball lore than justified by a 97 win team that wins 3 playoff series…….
by vances law on Jan 6, 2009 2:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'm confused.
Last offseason, Bradley was touted by LB as an addition that would bolster the lineup, a move that I’d have agreed with if done last offseason. (O’ LB, where art thou? Not even a guest mainpost?) Now, we have a bountiful crop of OFers (3rd highest OPS for NL CFers and 2nd highest OPS for NL RFers). If we can keep Luwick and Ankiel for less than $10M combined, why would we then spend $10M on someone who has a checkered injury past and hasn’t played everyday in the outfield for most of his career? Bradley is a high risk player at his salary with the possibility of a high reward. Our “impact” acquisition would best help the team if it bolstered our starting rotation and pushed El Pineiro out of it.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jan 6, 2009 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Ring was a former 1st rounder and a premier college closer
I recommend you read this article by scout.com Ring a Diamond in the Rough?
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 6, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Scrap from the Heap Comp.
…to the Colonel is wonderful. Be honest. Who doesn’t look at the FA list for struggling pitchers that remind you of __________ who Duncan rejuvenated?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jan 6, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ya I know
he’s the guy Billy Beane couldn’t believe the White Sox drafted instead of the starter he wanted
by vances law on Jan 6, 2009 5:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
back when he was drafted, ring threw 94. it’s been a while since he’s thrown that hard, but he’s still living off that reputation.
by greenback06 on Jan 6, 2009 7:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Did anyone else see this?
Is this just Tony being Tony, or is he actually opening up the door to Brendan Ryan starting at 2B?
We have a second-base question. Is Adam (Kennedy) going to play? Brendan Ryan is fired up. Brendan Ryan has a lot of talent. He might walk in there and take the job. Who knows?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jan 6, 2009 2:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
that sound you hear
is Adam Kennedy throwing a chair in his living room.
by DanUpBaby on Jan 6, 2009 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Don't worry Adam...
You’ll start platooning with Ludwick against right handed pitchers. Gotta protect Ryan a little, he’s a young guy who’s still developing. Also gotta play those splits, right?
by mattybobo on Jan 6, 2009 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ryan = Ryan Ludwick. Joke declared dead in 5, 4, 3....
by mattybobo on Jan 6, 2009 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hiss
boooo!
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 6, 2009 3:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, seems like TLR wants someone to come take the starting 2B job.......
I liked what I heard from Tony for the most part…. He seems like he is ready to give Colby a shot if someone in the OF is moved, stating colby has exciting potential and you need to push a guy with his talent.
by ICbirdfan on Jan 6, 2009 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It reminds me of Rolen
Just when I think the conflict has reached a chilled status quo (where the two principals can co-exist within their professional environment), TLR walks up to the smoldering ashes and douses them with gasoline.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jan 6, 2009 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah.... me thinks he and Kennedy have had some tough times during the season and off season.
It is generally stated in the sports world once it goes public, it has been an extremely long on going situation.
by ICbirdfan on Jan 6, 2009 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Winter Warmup
This is coming up and TLR is just trying to get Kennedy to attend.
How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!
by Elvis on Jan 6, 2009 8:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I heard they're going to have a cage fight
at the upcoming ARF event.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
by Alxfritz on Jan 6, 2009 8:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No holds barred?
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
by jd is legend on Jan 6, 2009 10:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hahaha!
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 6, 2009 3:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
LOL!
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 6, 2009 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
man
Tony really likes to F with Adam Kennedy
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 6, 2009 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
maybe, but
i think he’s just being honest. For whatever reason, it’s obvious that tony doesn’t see AK as a viable everyday starter. And becasue of this, he perceives 2B as a question mark.
AK is well aware of Tony’s position – it’s the reason he asked to be traded.
I'd rather my sister be a prostitute than my brother a Cub fan.
by _pistol_ on Jan 6, 2009 3:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
perhaps AK
is not in shape enough to play every day, but thinks he is
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 6, 2009 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
AK is bad against lefties
Lifetime splits:
vs R: .282./.334/.405
vs L: .250/.305/.329
That’s a guy begging to be platooned.
by mikedallas45 on Jan 7, 2009 10:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Does Tony have Brendan Ryan
confused with someone else?
Perhaps he forgot that Brendan spent the last month of the season playing OF in Memphis?
And he sucked?
Orlando Cabrera says he’ll play 2B if it gets him a contract. Why not sign him to play 2B? Is Orlando Cabrera’s defense a big step down from Kennedy’s?
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 6, 2009 3:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He'd spend too much time calling the pressbox
n/t
by sdrone on Jan 6, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
man
that’s a very good point
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 6, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Cabrera
He’s be an upgrade over Kennedy, but he really doesn’t fill a specific need offensively (i.e. he can’t lead off) and this club already has too many lower in the order hitters. He’d be a decent pick to hit in the 9 spot though, and he’d probably be at least as good if not an upgrade over Kennedy at 2B. UZR/150 had him at a 13.9 at SS last year — you’d have to figure that would go up a tick or two playing 2B, but maybe not….
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 6, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Technically, he could leadoff
The Cardinals leadoff hitters the last 3 years:
Year – OBP/SLG
2006 – .335/.366
2007 -.323/.346
2008 -.345/.388
Orlando Cabrera
2006 – .335/.404
2007 – .345/.397
2008 – .334/.371
Basically, except last year we would have been better off with Orlando Cabrera leading off everyday.
He started off terrible and after he got into the spat with the pressbox he hit .300/.345/.400.
I guess you are right, he’s probably not a lead-off hitter for this team and I had forgotten the White Sox had offered him arbitration.
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 6, 2009 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He's never led off in his career from what I remember
Not that you have to do that, but some guys just aren’t comfortable leading off, while other guys are. I guess I would hope that if we’re replacing Kennedy at 2B it’s with someone who has an OBP over .350 with solid defense in the leadoff spot.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 6, 2009 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Can't we just extend the argument
That Pujols protecting him would make him more comfortable in the leadoff spot? Who wants to walk the leadoff guy when Pujols is going to be up in the inning?!?!?!
[/sarcasm]
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Jan 6, 2009 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He's Type A...
right? I wouldn’t think he’d be a big enough upgrade to warrant the $ plus the lost pick.
by IA Card on Jan 6, 2009 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Reading on...
LaRussa says some very encouraging things about Rasmus – including saying that someone else will get “shoved aside” when Rasmus is ready. Now, if he only would’ve said that Rasmus was ready now…
Another nugget from the article: Randy Flores married Brad Thompson – no, not like that. Flores performed the ceremony.
by IA Card on Jan 6, 2009 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I found that incredible
The ordained Randy Flores presided over Brad Thompson’s marriage ceremony. You just can’t make this stuff up.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jan 6, 2009 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I love that........
So basically Flores got online and got ordained just in time to preform the ceremony…… You have to like that……..
by ICbirdfan on Jan 6, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Brad Thompson and Randy Flores just got a bit cooler as far as I am concerned.
by ICbirdfan on Jan 6, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"A bit cooler" implies that you thought Flores and Thompson were cool in the first place.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
by Eckstreem on Jan 6, 2009 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
PK has always been cool
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
by gdm426 on Jan 6, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
wtf?
how bizarre…
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 6, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So, in retrospect
it seems that Tuesday was ‘Opposite Day’. Everything Tony said, he meant the opposite.
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 6, 2009 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Tony’s always been a positional competition guy. He probably thinks that Kennedy’s ‘08 improvement over ’07 wasn’t just health, but Miles.
I don’t think there’s anything wrong with saying “We couldn’t move you in a trade, so you’re the starter. But I’ll find someone to make you earn that spot”. Luckily Ryan has no where to go but up, ’08 was horrid.
One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.
by AdjustedExpectations on Jan 6, 2009 10:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My Choice for a Cardinal's Villian
Frickin’ Hee Sop Choi…
If not for him we might still be looking at the best infield duo the cardinals have ever seen. Superior in all aspects of the game. You can’t argue that the last collision sent Scott on a downward spiral. I remember being at that game… I saw the collision coming and just sunk in my seat… For whatever reason I knew I had witnessed the beginning of the end right at that moment. Scotty is still one of my favorite Cardinals.
by streamman on Jan 6, 2009 4:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Cintron?
Don’t forget Cintron barreling into Rolen when the NLDS was all sewn up…
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Jan 6, 2009 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Choi is half of the story
Scott Erickson is the douche bag who married Lisa Guerrero and then made a comeback to baseball…just in time to catch Rolen’s comebacker and then make an awful throw to Choi on that play. Erickson gets just as much of the blame, if not more. All Choi did was give up his body for the out. (Though he did look slow to move, like he was surprised Rolen was coming down the first base line. Where did you think he was going, Hee?)
And did you hear who’s considering another comeback? Riiight, Scott Erickson. Bring it on, dingleberry! We got three guys chomping at the bit to replace our third baseman this time around!
by meat on Jan 6, 2009 5:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
After a slow start
Rolen was hitting .312 .418 .610 his previous 22 games. Is it bad that I’ve looked that up enough that I don’t even have to look it up anymore?
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Jan 6, 2009 6:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll never understand ...
why a guy Rolen’s size decided to shy away from that hit. It seems like all he had to do was run through Choi. I know, I know. Scott’s a nice guy, and he didn’t want to hurt him. I still think he caused his injury by pulling his body away from the contact.
It’s just irritating because Rolen was one of my favorite players. I wish we could’ve seen the best of him for more than just the few fleeting glimpses.
by etp_stl on Jan 6, 2009 10:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hee Sop Choi
is 6’5" and 235 lbs. I am more surprised that he was damaged by the 170 lb. Alex Cintron.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Jan 7, 2009 1:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not arguing the size,
but a person is always more vulnerable when trying to avoid contact. I wasn’t a football player, but I was a soccer player. It was pretty universally understood that the best way to get hurt when challenging for a ball was to pull back from the contact. If you ran through the ball, then the worst you were going to get was a bruise, or maybe the wind knocked out of you. If you reached for the ball, then you’re going to get a knee wrenched or a leg broken.
He was in an extremely awkward position on the Cintron hit, and he had to field the ball. There wasn’t much he could do on that one. The pr**k could have tried to avoid him, but that’s on Cintron.
by etp_stl on Jan 7, 2009 10:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of villains barreling in...
I was at the playoff game in ’85 when that tarp roller machine took out Vince Coleman. Yes, Landrum hit well as his replacement, but I still think the WS would have ended differently with Coleman running wild on the basepaths. So, Tarp Rolling Machine = villain.
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jan 7, 2009 1:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Especially since that entire series was played on turf....
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 7, 2009 11:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
don't forget about his precursor
the dreaded Alex Cintron
"Statistics mean nothing to the individual"
"You are what you eat and you clearly went out and devoured a big fat guy"
by jacksonian on Jan 6, 2009 4:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
stupid inability to hit reply
"Statistics mean nothing to the individual"
"You are what you eat and you clearly went out and devoured a big fat guy"
by jacksonian on Jan 6, 2009 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah he was the one that turned the shoulder into glass...
…but Scotty seemed to bounce back from that one some what… Choi, well that just demolished the shoulder completely, and quite possibly ruined a hall of fame career.
by streamman on Jan 6, 2009 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Say hello to the Memphis Redbird's starting first basemen in 2009
He can play some outfield too. The thought of having Chris and Shelley in the corner spots is getting Tony really excited right now. Or a Duncan/Duncan platoon in left.
I’m starting to feel dizzy thinking about it…
"I'm as nauseous as I've ever been. I have a terrible headache. My head is pounding. I feel like throwing up and I'm having trouble swallowing. And the beauty of it is, you want to feel like this every day." - Tony LaRussa
by adiueordie on Jan 6, 2009 5:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
*Shelley
"I'm as nauseous as I've ever been. I have a terrible headache. My head is pounding. I feel like throwing up and I'm having trouble swallowing. And the beauty of it is, you want to feel like this every day." - Tony LaRussa
by adiueordie on Jan 6, 2009 5:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Could we
Just use Chris and Shelley Duncan to scare the other team? I mean, they don’t actually have to be on the roster, but we can make it look like they are going to come to bat. Give them each bats with nails in the ends and have them walk menacingly at the opposing pitcher until being called back for a PH. We could also have them sprint out of the dugout every time someone gets a HBP, and then they can also walk out of the dugout and taunt the opposing pitcher every time he walks Albert. I think it could work.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 6, 2009 6:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Like Hockey enforcers, you mean?
4th line?
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song:
by gocards62 on Jan 6, 2009 7:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Anderson...
I think the way you presented his stats was a big misleading.
His AA season in 2007 wasn’t that hot. But in AA in 2008 he hit a lot better (thus earning his promotion), slugging .525 (which was inflated thanks to his .388 average).
And his numbers in AAA were as a 21 year old. 21! (He just turned 22 a few weeks ago). When Aaron MIles was 21, he was in A ball, slugging .352
Felipe Lopez - next year's Joel Pineiro (on another team, thank you Mo!)
by DiscoJer on Jan 6, 2009 6:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
and he wasn't ready then, as a result
Anderson is in AAA. I’m saying he’s not ready to move past AAA and be a viable big league contact hitter if he can’t hit for a little pop at the level below that one.
by DanUpBaby on Jan 6, 2009 7:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Until he turned 24
and repeated AAA, Geovany Soto had never hit more than 9 HRs in a season or slugged above .417.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Jan 7, 2009 1:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Am I the only one whose Lineup of the Damned includes
Dick Nen?
by StanTheManFan on Jan 6, 2009 7:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Why?
I’m WAAAY too young to know anything about this guy, but his numbers were awful against the Cards (.125 BA, .176 OBP, .313 SLG). Did he do something to the 60s teams?
by etp_stl on Jan 6, 2009 10:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oops, sorry...
This game is why.
I have relived the pain of that season-shattering game for 45 years.
by StanTheManFan on Jan 7, 2009 12:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Has anyone mentioned
Mark Prior?
Yeah, I feel bad for the guy, but didn’t he say some not nice things about the Cardinals back in the day? Maybe I’m thinking about someone else…
And I know they eventually made up, but what about Pujols vs Bennett?
by mateodh on Jan 6, 2009 8:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I mentioned him and the mysterious closer conversion guy
but let’s face it, he’s made out of papier mache
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 6, 2009 9:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ah
Well, it was nice while it lasted.
I wish he would have stayed healthy. I wish Wood had been healthy, too, on the caveat that Carpenter, Morris and Mulder had been healthy as well. It might not be best for baseball but the Cubs and Cardinals would have dominated this division the last decade, and not just like they’ve dominated it by splitting division titles most of the 2000s, but we’re talking 1-2 every year and epic NLCS battles. Oh what could have been…
by mateodh on Jan 6, 2009 9:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't forget Ankiel
10 K/9 as a 20 year old!
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Jan 6, 2009 10:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah.
I would have loved to have seen that potential rotation of Kile, Morris, and Ankiel. That would have made for some fun seasons in ’01 & ’02.
by etp_stl on Jan 6, 2009 10:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
could you imagine how good we would've been in 02
Kile, Morris, Ankiel
Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen (in the second half)
by vivaelpujols on Jan 7, 2009 1:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't have had to sit through ...
watching the damned Giants kick our butts in that damned NLCS.
Two of the most heartbreaking experiences of my baseball fandom were watching Ankiel implode in the 2000 playoffs and watching Morris self-destruct after Kile’s death. I’ll never forget watching Joe Girardi tear up in a Cubs uniform when having to explain what happened with Kile.
by etp_stl on Jan 7, 2009 10:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not the same as Matty Mo going down hill but
the first game after Hancocks death was one too.
IIRC Wells had pitched pretty well until that game, but it was the first game back and he was starting…he was not known for mental toughness.
You could see the fear and pressure on his face, and the poor guy cracked.
He got beat up and kicked around, I think he even threw some wild pitches or made some throwing errors.
and the guy NEVER recovered, all year.
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Jan 8, 2009 4:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
Ank is great in high pressure situations!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 7, 2009 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Odd little recommendation for Lineup of the Damned.
Tony Eusebio. The SOB killed us for years down in Houston.
Career numbers against the Cards.
PA,BA,OBP,SLG,OPS
160,.361,.409,.483,.892
The guy’s been outta baseball since 2001, and I still hate the creep.
by etp_stl on Jan 6, 2009 9:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
a post about prospects
197 comments were made and not one of them from me. And now, I feel I have nothing to say.
Hmmmmm…………………………..
I'll be the one overrating these Faberge' eggs, thank you very much!
Future Redbirds
by erik on Jan 6, 2009 11:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
quick somewhat off-topic question
The community throughout the past year has beaten to death the idea that small sample size is a downfall that can be made when evaluating players, with exhibit A being Felipe Lopez. My question is how long until a small sample is no longer a small sample? Does 300 PA’s refute the small sample size argument? 500? 1000? When can you tell a player true ability and have the non-sabermetric stats reflect that? I would assume that pitching stats take a different amount of time to stabilize than hitting stats. Also, is the relevant sample size criteria different for minor leaguers? How does a switch in level or league affect when you can determine correct sample size?
For the record, I have nothing against sabermetric stats but they seem to be more predictive as opposed to result-oriented. I myself often use novice sabermetric stats like BABIP and FIP to understand whether success of failure is sustainable but wonder if time can reveal the same conclusion in the more traditional stats.
"Statistics mean nothing to the individual"
"You are what you eat and you clearly went out and devoured a big fat guy"
by jacksonian on Jan 6, 2009 11:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'll give this a try.
“My question is how long until a small sample is no longer a small sample?”
No one in their right mind should tell you that there’s a line in the sand for determining true talent level. For an advanced offensive statistic (i.e. wOBA) a year’s worth of data is a good predictor for the future with lesser number of PAs being, obviously, less predictive. 300 PAs is still, to some extent, predictive but not as much as 600 or 1000 and needs to be viewed accordingly.
“When can you tell a player true ability and have the non-sabermetric stats reflect that?”
Depends on the stat and it’s year-to-year correlations. OPS is probably the best “conventional” stat for predictive purposes.
“Also, is the relevant sample size criteria different for minor leaguers?”
Yes. Minor league statistics are less predictive than major league ones. That is not to say they aren’t predictive at all.
“How does a switch in level or league affect when you can determine correct sample size?”
This should affect your decision on when you’ve reached an appropriate or accpetable sample set threshold. It does mean that you have to perform translations to make sure that all your values have the same baseline. A 3.50 FIP in the AL East is not the same as a 3.50 FIP in the NL West.
I hope that helps some but I’m sure there are other who could further clarify and fill in some holes that I’ve surely left.
by azruavatar on Jan 7, 2009 12:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Forgot a negative. 2nd to last paragraph should read: “This should not affect your decision”
by azruavatar on Jan 7, 2009 12:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it depends completely on the variation of the skill level in the population
a Az is right, there is no “line in the sand”, but (to attempt to paraphrase about 5 pages of Tango’s “the book”) until a guy has a large number of opportunities in proportion to the typical skill level variation in the population, the uncertainty in measuring his “true talent” is high.
To predict future performance with any precision, you need to have lower uncertainty in your measurement than the size of the variation in the population skill level. And uncertainty goes down with the square root of the number of data points. IE, to get twice as accurate of an estimate of true talent, you need 4 times the PA’s.
To give one example of the power of this, one of tango’s examples shows that after 500 PA’s, 95% of players with a true talent OBP skill of .330 with have real-world OBP’s between .288 and .372. 5% will still be outside even those wide margins. After 1000 PA’s, 95% will be between .300 to .360. 4000 PA’s, .315 to .345. Etc.
FWIW, he later states that wOBA has a larger randomness than OBP, so it takes more PA’s to have the same amount of uncertainty in wOBA than in OBP.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
by SleepyCA on Jan 7, 2009 12:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
re the book;
it sounds like the best point for a in-depth dive into planet sabermetric. I plan on getting it for my upcoming birthday.
"Statistics mean nothing to the individual"
"You are what you eat and you clearly went out and devoured a big fat guy"
by jacksonian on Jan 7, 2009 12:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Gentlemen. Ladies.
Can I just say how much I have enjoyed reading this post and all the comments just now? Not to mention the diverting links to the Lineup of the Damned and the Future Redbirds roundtable and the interview with Tony? (That Lineup of the Damned link led me to the Steve Garvey piece and then Joe Posnanski and ultimately to an incredible piece of sportswriting called "Death of a Racehorse" by W.C. Heinz.)
Lively debate re: John Jay and Skip Schu; interesting discussion about Bryan Anderson; the appreciations of Lance Berkman’s ability and personality and the funny bad-body pics . . . great stuff all around. And I’m not even touching on the link to the Beyond the Boxscore. I’m saving that for tomorrow. Cheers to all of you.
by Youneverknow on Jan 7, 2009 1:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Lineup of the damned
I know I am aging myself, but you have to throw in Don Newcomb. Seems like he beat us 20 straight times or so in the 1950s. I also remember Harry saying “This guy kills us” about a hundred times, but right now I can’t find my keys, so I can’t remember all the names.
by Remember Kenny B on Jan 7, 2009 10:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Baseball Propsectus List
Five-Star Prospects
1. Colby Rasmus, CF
2. Brett Wallace, 3B
Four-Star Prospects
3. Chris Perez, RHP
4. Daryl Jones, LF
Three-Star Prospects
5. Jess Todd, RHP
6. Adam Reifer, RHP
7. Bryan Anderson, C
8. Jamie Garcia, RHP
9. Lance Lynn, RHP
10. Jason Motte, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
11. Niko Vasquez, SS]
Article here (subscription required). Overall, fairly complimentary piece, with an acknowledgment that the Cards’ system is deep and has really improved in the past several years.
by holden on Jan 7, 2009 11:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
They have Kozma's value as a RHP...
I wonder what his value is as a SS? :-)
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 7, 2009 11:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe they think ...
that, as a SS, he’ll make a great mop-up reliever.
by etp_stl on Jan 7, 2009 12:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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