OAR Rankings, Revised
by Cards Fan in Chitown
on Jan 5, 2009 1:43 PM EST
71 comments
Here is my handcrafted baseball stat that I've been "working" on the last few months: Offensive Ability Rating (OAR). Components to the equation include total bases and stolen bases (Base Efficiency Factor), multiplied by average (BEA). Secondly, ELF (Eye Luck Factor) is determined by the amount of walks, hit by pitches, and sacrifice flies the player generates, penalyzed by how many times they ground into double plays or strike out, which is mulitiplied by BABIP. To round it out, I throw in P/PA divided by 30, just to separate ties basically (if they have a higher P/PA, then they wear down the pitcher more, and are a slightly better offensive player). So without further adieu, here's my 2008 rankings, revised and improved from last time. If you read the other post, you'll notice the Offensive Ability Rating is a lower number than before.
OAR rankings (min. 300 PA)
1. Albert Pujols - 139.9
2. Milton Bradley - 130.3
3. Chipper Jones - 128.8
4. Adam Dunn - 125.8
5. J.D. Drew - 125.2
6. David Wright - 124.4
7. Manny Ramirez - 123.5
8. Hanley Ramirez - 123.2
9. Lance Berkman - 122.7
10. Jason Giambi - 122.2
11. Carlos Pena - 120.4
12. Mark Texeira - 119.9
13. Chris Iannetta - 118.7
14. Jack Cust - 118.4
15. Grady Sizemore - 118.2
16. Matt Holliday - 118.1
17. Shin-Soo Choo - 117.2
18. Alex Rodriguez - 117
19. Kevin Youkilis - 115.3
20. Pat Burrell - 115.2
21. Jayson Werth - 115
22. Ryan Ludwick - 114.9
23. Jason Bay - 113.8
24. Elijah Dukes - 113.7
25. Nick Markakis - 112.5
26. Prince Fielder - 111.8
27. B.J. Upton - 111.5
28. Ryan Braun - 111.1
29. David Ortiz - 110.7
30. Aramis Ramirez - 110.6
31. Brad Hawpe - 110.5
32. Carlos Quentin - 110.4
33. Mark Derosa - 110.1
34. Chase Utley - 109.8
35. Jim Thome - 109.7
36. Brian Roberts - 109.3
37. Nate McLouth - 109.1
38. Josh Willingham - 108.9
39. Denard Span - 108.8
40. Dan Uggla - 108.6
41. Andre Ethier - 108.3
42. Joe Mauer - 108.1
43. Chris Snyder - 107.8
44. Josh Hamilton - 107.6
45. Justin Upton - 106.7
46. Evan Longoria - 106.5
47. Troy Glaus - 106.5
48. Ryan Howard - 106.4
49. Curtis Granderson - 106.3
50. Ian Kinsler - 105.8
51. Todd Helton - 105.8
52. Mike Cameron - 105.4
53. Jim Edmonds - 105.3
54. Brian Giles - 105.1
55. Johnny Damon - 105
56. Kelly Shoppach - 104.2
57. Rickie Weeks - 104.1
58. Aubrey Huff - 104
59. Carlos Lee - 103.8
60. Geovany Soto - 103.8
61. Ray Durham - 103.3
62. Alfonso Soriano - 102.9
63. Carlos Guillen - 102.9
64. Justin Morneau - 102.2
65. Russell Martin - 102.2
66. Joey Votto - 102.1
67. Kosuke Fukudome - 102.1
68. Ian Stewart - 101.8
69. Alex Gordon - 101.8
70. Brian McCann - 101.6
71. Marlon Byrd - 101.6
72. Jimmy Rollins - 101.5
73. Jose Reyes - 101.5
74. Brandon Boggs - 101.4
75. Bobby Abreu - 101.2
76. Doug Mientkiewicz - 101.1
77. Ronnie Belliard - 100.9
78. Ramon Vazquez - 100.8
79. Adam LaRoche - 100.5
80. Gregor Blanco - 100.2
81. Craig Counsell - 100.2
82. Ken Griffey Jr. - 100.1
83. Fred Lewis - 99.7
84. Miguel Cabrera - 99.4
85. Mark Reynolds - 99.2
86. Randy Winn - 99.1
87. Edwin Encarnacion - 99
88. Dustin Pedroia - 98.8
89. Rick Ankiel - 98.7
90. Kaz Matsui - 98.7
91. Jed Lowrie - 98.6
92. Luke Scott - 98.3
93. Gabe Gross - 98.3
94. Carlos Beltran - 98.2
95. Carlos Delgado - 98.1
96. Fernando Tatis - 98
97. Paul Konerko - 97.9
98. Willie Harris - 97.9
99. Nick Swisher - 97.8
100. Ty Wigginton - 97.1
The 15 worst hitters of 2008:
Worst: Yuniesky Betancourt - 65.1
2nd worst: Carlos Gonzalez - 68.4
3rd worst: Miguel Tejada - 68.6
4th worst: Freddy Sanchez - 70.5
5th worst: Tadahito Iguchi - 70.6
6th worst: Ross Gload - 70.8
7th worst: Jack Wilson - 70.9
8th worst: Jose Castillo - 71
9th worst: Omar Vizquel - 71.2
10th worst: Jay Payton - 72.3
11th worst: Billy Butler - 72.4
12th worst: Jeff Keppinger - 72.9
13th worst: Robinson Cano - 73
14th worst: Damion Easley - 73.2
15th worst: Jeff Francoeur - 73.5
out of 276 offensive ability ratings
Interesting Cardinal notes: Yadier Molina and Aaron Miles were essentially the same offensive player in my study... Adam Kennedy was very close to those two, but had more speed and more pop than Miles. Izturis ranked slightly higher still because he stole a lot more bases than that stellar crew. He was also bolstered by not striking out too much, and had very few GDP. Molina had a lot of ground into double plays, hurting his rating.
Skip Schumaker wasn't that much better than that crew, leading me to believe he may be the odd man out in the OF come spring training. His OAR was 83, and there's was an average of 75.2. I'd be willing to bet some money that Mather, Barton, or Rasmus will do significantly better than Schumaker in '09. I'll calculate Mather and Barton's OAR at a later date, and probably do a team by team OAR as well.
In between the elite Cardinals hitters and the not-so-elite Cardinals hitters was Rick Ankiel, with an OAR of 98.7. He was second only to Ryan Ludwick in BEF, but was hampered by mental issues. There's little doubt that hammerin' Ank has power now though, after basically a full season if you include '07. Also, there's little doubt that Albert Pujols, Ryan Ludwick, and Troy Glaus were far and away our best offensive players in '08.
Well, my internet went out last night and I probably would have rambled on a bit longer, but here's my post...
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the poll got cut off
so it was also saying that remember to include power, batting eye, speed, the ability to put the ball into play, etc.
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 5, 2009 1:48 PM EST
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Does this include bulk stats?
Like RBI’s, runs, home runs etc?
by vivaelpujols on
Jan 5, 2009 1:58 PM EST
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no
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 5, 2009 3:44 PM EST
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Troy Glaus
could have a monster contract year, but I’m going to have to go with Studwick. Interesting post.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on
Jan 5, 2009 2:05 PM EST
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67. Kosuke Fukudome - 102.1
I’m having some difficulty with this one.
He’s ranked ahead of (in order of appearance) Jose Reyes, Bobby Abreu, Miguel Cabrera, Randy Winn, Edwin Encarnacion, Dustin Pedroia, Rick Ankiel, Carlos Beltran, Fernando Tatis, and Ty Wiggington.
And those are just the names that jumped out at me. Actually, Jimmy Rollins jumped out at me and then I looked up his stats and he had about the same season with the bat that Fukudome did.
I’m not sure why Fukudome ranks so high when compared to these players. He had little power, struck out over a hundred times, walked less than a hundred times, only stole 12 bases, had an above average on base percentage… I just don’t get it.
It cant’ be that I’m just biased, right? Is there any hitter (taking defense and position out of the question) that I just listed who you wouldn’t prefer over Fukudome?
Other than that though, it looks pretty interesting. Good work and I know you’re much more disciplined than I am to put the effort into coming up with a new stat.
The boys are all here for ya...we'll back you up...we'll be there...cause, Billy, we don't stink right now. We're the best team in baseball right now...right this minute...because of you. You're the reason. We're not gonna screw that up, we're gonna be awesome for you right now. Just throw.
by Tackle Box on
Jan 5, 2009 2:25 PM EST
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he had a good eye
didn’t ground into that many double plays… I mean, he wasn’t that bad was he? I’ll look into him more and come up with a better reason later (I hope)
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 5, 2009 3:47 PM EST
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maybe my formula is just valuing him as a well-balanced player
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 5, 2009 3:48 PM EST
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Well, Fukudome is tough to take a snapshot of
because his season was like a roller-coaster. Well……more like a water slide, maybe. His first month and a half (or so) he was awesome. He then became average until the All-Star game after which he went into a tail spin that cost him his starting job.
By the end of the year, if you were on a major league roster and you weren’t better than Kosuke Fukudome, then you should have either been demoted, released or just altogether quit. I’m not sure there was a worse hitter in baseball over the last 2 months of last season.
From August 1 to September 27, he put up a line of .188, .291, .266, .557.
But ultimately I still ask the question. Would you have chosen Fukudome for your line-up over Jose Reyes, Bobby Abreu, Miguel Cabrera, Randy Winn, Edwin Encarnacion, Dustin Pedroia, Rick Ankiel, Carlos Beltran, Fernando Tatis, or Ty Wiggington? I don’t see how you could think for more than a half a second before answering “No”.
The boys are all here for ya...we'll back you up...we'll be there...cause, Billy, we don't stink right now. We're the best team in baseball right now...right this minute...because of you. You're the reason. We're not gonna screw that up, we're gonna be awesome for you right now. Just throw.
by Tackle Box on
Jan 5, 2009 4:55 PM EST
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one thing is for certain
Kosuke will be earning those big paychecks with Milton and Alfonso staggering around in the OF
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 5, 2009 5:55 PM EST
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at least
he isn’t rated that much higher; like I said, I’ll have to come up with a reason later (at work) but right now, you’re probably right?
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 5, 2009 5:56 PM EST
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a question for the masses
Is Ludwick rather high LD% (28.1% according to statcorner) sustainable? Is it sustainable because he has a certain type of swing that generates more line drives than the average player. Is it not sustainable because his BABIP was a moderately high .340? If he drops 8-10 percent in LD% and 20-40 points in BABIP, what effect will that have on his offensive output? I think that Glaus can have an even better year at the plate in 09, as long as he stays healthy and adjusts for the environment in the early weeks so as not to repeat the results that he put up in April and May, which were not the results that he showed in his past or the remainder of the year.
"Statistics mean nothing to the individual"
by jacksonian on
Jan 5, 2009 3:57 PM EST
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I'd say he probably won't have quite so high a line drive rate next season
but that he certainly does produce a lot of line drives, so his swing does produce that type of outcome. glad to clear things up ;)
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 5, 2009 4:24 PM EST
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I don't think so
His power is very real IMO. However that is a truly freakish percentage of LD’s. Whenever I see a number so out of whack like that I assume that it isn’t sustainable until it becomes so…if that makes sense.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on
Jan 5, 2009 9:23 PM EST
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I'd be sort of scared if I played defense
to defend against Ludwick. OK, really scared.
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 6, 2009 12:45 PM EST
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bad wording
ELF is not multiplied by BABIP… but BABIP is one component of it.
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 5, 2009 4:53 PM EST
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AL MVP -- 88. Dustin Pedroia - 98.8
89. Rick Ankiel – 98.7
Found that kind of funny. Great pick on AL MVP.
There are three things in my life which I really love: God, my family, and baseball. The only problem - once baseball season starts, I change the order around a bit. ~Al Gallagher, 1971
by wizardofozzie on
Jan 5, 2009 5:01 PM EST
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exactly
that guy was waaaay overrated
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 5, 2009 5:57 PM EST
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Ankiel OAR of 98.7
BUT “but was hampered by mental issues”
are you speaking of his late inning choke jobs?
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
by gdm426 on
Jan 5, 2009 5:18 PM EST
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yeah
pretty much; his OBP wasn’t that good, etc.
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 5, 2009 5:57 PM EST
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Just eyeballing this...
I think that your metric overweights walks. That’s why Fukudome rates higher than some players that I would say were generally better offensive players last year.
You’re really measuring walks three different ways from what I can tell. You’re measuring it as a total base, and you’re measuring it in your ELF twice — once for actual walks and once by penalizing for double plays — players who walk a lot generally hit into fewer double plays as well.
Because of this emphasis on the base on balls, I think it may skew your results a little more than some of the other measures of offensive efficiency, although I still haven’t found one without a fault.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on
Jan 5, 2009 5:46 PM EST
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cool
I was kind of worried about that… the first version was even more extreme. I kind of designed it that way cuz it seems like OBP is valued rather high around here. still, I kinda like it, and I like your point, cuz I didn’t think about the GDP and BB double emphasis. maybe the stat shows which players are a little more intelligent in their batting styles too, which I like.
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 5, 2009 6:00 PM EST
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so far
Glaus is just eeking out in votes above Ludwick, which is at least sort of surprising
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 5, 2009 7:01 PM EST
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Glaus has a better track record
And he is very consistent when it comes to hitting for power and drawing walks.
by vivaelpujols on
Jan 5, 2009 7:53 PM EST
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Well, Glaus has everything going for him next year. It’s a contract year for one. Secondly, he had a really freakish year last year.
Eye allergies nailed him really hard early on and a massive slump that I have never really seen out of him (I’ve watched him his entire career.). His swing turned really chaotic (and very, very long).
Then he became overly patient and let the umpire dictate the zone as opposed to his bat, and if you recall you could really start seeing the frustration take hold.
Actually, it’s pretty surprising how well he actually did last year, and when you’re looking for improvement it’s hard to not look at him. I don’t know how much improvement Luddy can have off of last year.
I picked Mather but there’s a case for Glaus
One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.
by AdjustedExpectations on
Jan 6, 2009 5:34 AM EST
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I voted for Glaus
Mostly a hunch, but I based it on the feeling that an improvement for Glaus co-occuring with a downward turn for Ludwick is a pretty likely scenario. Of course I’d love for them both to improve!
While I’m at it, I’d love to see Colby become the Sizemore of the NL (with a better team around him).
Oh, and Albert—is a .500 OBP and 45-50 homers too much to ask? Come on mang, you were pretty good in 2008 but I’d like to see some effort.
by mattybobo on
Jan 6, 2009 12:35 PM EST
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not to mention
Glaus has a really good eye for the ball (when he’s not bothered by allergies). actually, he’d make a perfect spokesman for some kind of allergy medicine
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 6, 2009 12:50 PM EST
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Rec'd
Oh, and Albert—is a .500 OBP and 45-50 homers too much to ask? Come on mang, you were pretty good in 2008 but I’d like to see some effort.
Awesome
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on
Jan 6, 2009 1:22 PM EST
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Probably my first rec...
Thanks!
And I realized as I was typing it that he is so consistent that he makes it look easy year after year. It really is difficult to see the effort sometimes, though it’s there in huge amounts.
That’s sprezzatura for you. He’s Mangelangelo Buonarroti.
by mattybobo on
Jan 6, 2009 2:32 PM EST
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Mangelangelo!
time for your second rec.
by kindred on
Jan 6, 2009 4:39 PM EST
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Are these numbers based upon a multilinear regression of the factors you cited?
What’s the model behind this?
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on
Jan 5, 2009 8:44 PM EST
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i don't understand...
… what sacrifice flies have to do with anything. for that matter, i don’t understand what strikeouts have to do with anything, except to counter-balance BABIP. but while there is some bit of luck in BABIP, it’s impossible to know which variations from the mean are random and which are sustainable. if the errors are random, then you don’t need to correct for them. if they aren’t random, then your model is screwed.
by kindred on
Jan 5, 2009 9:24 PM EST
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I like screwing models
sorry, I couldn’t resist
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 6, 2009 12:55 PM EST
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to be serious
sac flies show that the player has some skill… not all players are capable of doing it. strikeouts I think are important because when you put the ball in play, something is possible to happen, such as Pujols running home from second base, or for a shitty fielder to make an error, allowing a run to score. I’m unsure as to why the model is screwed if errors aren’t random?
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 6, 2009 12:57 PM EST
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Alternative viewpoint:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/hit-em-where-they-aintmdashif-you-can/
What’s happening is that batters strike out less often (-12 percent) and walk less often (-6 percent) in sac fly situations. They are indeed putting more balls in play, because they want to score the run, but they are not hitting more fly balls per ball in play.
Note that the flyball rate is virtually identical for sac fly situations and for all situations (29 percent compared to 28.4 percent). Batters just don’t seem to be able to hit more fly balls even when they have a strong incentive to do so.
by astrostl on
Jan 6, 2009 1:30 PM EST
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sure, but...
… which is the stronger force: the skill to deliver a flyball in a sac-fly situation, or the randomness of being in a sac-fly situation in the first place? they are usually such a small number of events (many players will have less than 10 in a full season) that it’s hard to convincingly argue that the sac-fly stat measures any sort of real skill. in any case, it’s almost guaranteed that sac-fly situations are not distributed normally if only because Jose Reyes hits after the worst guys in the batting order (or nobody) while David Wright hits after Jose Reyes. it just seems like a strange thing to include in the model, especially if can skew the results.
w/r/t putting the ball in play: if your stat is trying to measure the hitter’s offensive ability, then why would you care if Pujols runs in from second or a fielder makes an error? those are both independent of the hitter’s ability (and the second one should be included in your on-base term anyway).
if statistical errors (not baseball errors) are not random, then your model is biased. which might be why you have Fukudome over Cabrera and Reyes.
by kindred on
Jan 6, 2009 2:13 PM EST
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ah
now I see… I think I will do this again next year and reduce the amount of importance of OBP, kick out sac flies (or at least divide them in two), and of course, if there’s any other suggestions I will take them into account. thank you.
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 6, 2009 2:38 PM EST
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I'd first check and see
what the differences do to your rankings. If the rankings seem to make more common sense when compared to other measures (i.e. not an outlier with a certain group of players, like guys who take a lot of walks), then I think it’s a better analysis. Just my two cents.
I’d probably tinker with it a bit more though.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on
Jan 6, 2009 3:34 PM EST
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Howard at 48
Sounds about right.
So says, Titus Pullo (formerly The Dude)
by Titus Pullo on
Jan 6, 2009 10:26 AM EST
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But all his OAR's took place when it counts!
Rather than selfishly piling up “stats” and “production” all year long, even in games that his team lost anyway.
ok, end sarcasm…
It’s sad, I actually like Ryan Howard, but the sheer ignorance of the media forces us all to criticize him. When he gets the OBP back up he’s a rich man’s Adam Dunn. Oddly enough, it looks like the poor man’s Adam Dunn will end up being the actual Adam Dunn this year, since no teams seem to remember he exists and he’ll probably end up signing for cheap at this rate…
by mattybobo on
Jan 6, 2009 12:42 PM EST
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Jack Cust
This was a name that a saw relatively high on the list which led me to believe there is too high of an emphasis on walks
He a had 111 walks, far and away the most in the american league(didnt check nl)
other than some decent power numbers, he is no more than an above average hitter
by thenextgen on
Jan 6, 2009 6:34 PM EST
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ah
even more reason to de-emphasize my walk part of the equation
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 6, 2009 7:13 PM EST
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Perhaps it would be more interesting to show
Base Efficiency Factor leaders (TB + SB – CS divided by hits):
Adam Dunn
Ryan Howard
Marcus Thames
Mike Jacobs
Mike Cameron
Grady Sizemore
Jim Thome
Jack Cust
Jason Giambi
Jim Edmonds
Pat Burrell
Alfonso Soriano
Carlos Quentin
Evan Longoria
Ryan Braun
Carlos Pena
Alex Rodriguez
Jayson Werth
Mark Reynolds
Kelly Shoppach
Dan Uggla
Ryan Ludwick
Eric Hinske
Scott Hairston
Elijah Dukes
Rick Ankiel
Hanley Ramirez
David Ortiz
Nate McLouth
Cody Ross
Christopher Davis
Carlos Delgado
Chris Snyder
Chris Iannetta
Chase Utley
Lance Berkman
Carlos Beltran
Jason Bay
J.D. Drew
Nick Swisher
Edwin Encarnacion
Josh Willingham
Adam LaRoche
Jimmy Rollins
Jermaine Dye
Albert Pujols
Paul Konerko
Prince Fielder
Chris Young
Miguel Cabrera
Luke Scott
Aubrey Huff
Miguel Olivo
Carlos Lee
Rickie Weeks
Ty Wigginton
Matt Holliday
Adrian Gonzalez
Justin Upton
David Wright
Brandon Inge
Manny Ramirez
Curtis Granderson
Kevin Youkilis
Mark Teixeira
Jose Reyes
Jeff Baker
Corey Hart
Gabe Gross
Aramis Ramirez
Shin-Soo Choo
Josh Hamilton
Troy Glaus
Brandon Boggs
Brandon Phillips
Willie Harris
Torii Hunter
Brian McCann
Ian Kinsler
Milton Bradley
Jay Bruce
Brad Hawpe
Geovany Soto
Jorge Cantu
Adrian Beltre
Ian Stewart
Bill Hall
Richie Sexson
Hunter Pence
David Murphy
Vladimir Guerrero
Geoff Blum
Mark DeRosa
Stephen Drew
Jhonny Peralta
Jason Kubel
Joey Votto
Alex Gordon
Mark Ellis
Matt Kemp
Alex Rios
David Dellucci
Casey Blake
Jose Bautista
Ken Griffey Jr.
J.J. Hardy
Andre Ethier
Clint Barmes
Scott Rolen
Willy Taveras
Brian Roberts
Xavier Nady
Mike Lowell
Kevin Millar
Shane Victorino
Johnny Damon
Vernon Wells
Jeremy Hermida
Melvin Mora
Alexei Ramirez
Fred Lewis
Fernando Tatis
Kevin Kouzmanoff
Jose Guillen
B.J. Upton
Ronnie Belliard
Jacoby Ellsbury
Justin Morneau
Bobby Abreu
Ben Francisco
Jody Gerut
Rod Barajas
Khalil Greene
Jeff Mathis
Raul Ibanez
Jason Michaels
Matt Stairs
Derrek Lee
Jason Varitek
Willy Aybar
Nick Markakis
Pedro Feliz
Carl Crawford
Lastings Milledge
Franklin Gutierrez
Emil Brown
John Bowker
Chipper Jones
Dustin Pedroia
Michael Bourn
Chris Coste
Geoff Jenkins
Chase Headley
Marlon Byrd
Kaz Matsui
Jack Hannahan
John Buck
Mark Teahen
Kelly Johnson
Ryan Church
Ramon Hernandez
Denard Span
Ryan Doumit
Garrett Atkins
Adam Lind
Carlos Guillen
Luis Gonzalez
Coco Crisp
Jed Lowrie
Ryan Zimmerman
Jesus Flores
Lyle Overbay
Carlos Gomez
Juan Uribe
Conor Jackson
Kosuke Fukudome
Adam Jones
Carlos Gonzalez
Magglio Ordonez
Ray Durham
Jose Castillo
Gary Matthews Jr.
Bengie Molina
Randy Winn
James Loney
Mike Aviles
Jay Payton
Casey Kotchman
Ivan Rodriguez
Jose Lopez
Bobby Crosby
Orlando Hudson
Robinson Cano
Garret Anderson
Jeff Francoeur
Aaron Rowand
Brian Giles
David DeJesus
Russell Martin
Jeff Kent
Brendan Harris
A.J. Pierzynski
Blake Dewitt
Ryan Garko
Paul Bako
Troy Tulowitzki
Ramon Vazquez
Michael Young
Todd Helton
Miguel Tejada
Alfredo Amezaga
Maicer Izturis
Rich Aurilia
Austin Kearns
Luis Castillo
Delmon Young
Brad Wilkerson
Hideki Matsui
Billy Butler
Howie Kendrick
Mark Kotsay
Joe Inglett
Erick Aybar
Nick Punto
Melky Cabrera
Edgar Renteria
Brian Schneider
Ichiro Suzuki
Juan Pierre
Gerald Laird
Asdrubal Cabrera
Tadahito Iguchi
Ryan Sweeney
Omar Infante
Yuniesky Betancourt
Cristian Guzman
Akinori Iwamura
Placido Polanco
Derek Jeter
Adam Kennedy
Orlando Cabrera
Edgar Gonzalez
Skip Schumaker
Alexi Casilla
Reed Johnson
Damion Easley
Craig Counsell
Joe Mauer
Yunel Escobar
Marco Scutaro
Jason Bartlett
Felipe Lopez
Doug Mientkiewicz
Freddy Sanchez
Jason Kendall
Dioner Navarro
Julio Lugo
Mark Grudzielanek
Cesar Izturis
David Eckstein
Jeremy Reed
Chone Figgins
Jeff Keppinger
Kurt Suzuki
Joey Gathright
Gregor Blanco
Darin Erstad
Jamey Carroll
Jack Wilson
Yadier Molina
Ross Gload
Aaron Miles
Omar Vizquel
Ryan Theriot
Daric Barton
Next, is BEA, or Batting Efficiency Average, which is BEF multiplied by BA
Albert Pujols
Manny Ramirez
Alex Rodriguez
Lance Berkman
Ryan Ludwick
Matt Holliday
Chipper Jones
Hanley Ramirez
Carlos Quentin
Carlos Lee
Ryan Braun
Milton Bradley
Alfonso Soriano
Kevin Youkilis
Ian Kinsler
Aubrey Huff
Mark Teixeira
Chase Utley
Grady Sizemore
Shin-Soo Choo
David Wright
Evan Longoria
Christopher Davis
Jayson Werth
Jermaine Dye
Josh Hamilton
Ryan Howard
Corey Hart
Jason Bay
Miguel Cabrera
Carlos Beltran
Jose Reyes
Brian McCann
Nate McLouth
J.D. Drew
Vladimir Guerrero
Dustin Pedroia
Ty Wigginton
Carlos Delgado
Aramis Ramirez
Andre Ethier
Kelly Shoppach
Jimmy Rollins
Adam Dunn
Mike Jacobs
Dan Uggla
Xavier Nady
Elijah Dukes
Prince Fielder
Joey Votto
David Ortiz
Rick Ankiel
Adrian Gonzalez
Pat Burrell
Curtis Granderson
Johnny Damon
Marcus Thames
Jim Thome
Jason Giambi
Chris Iannetta
Mike Cameron
Adam LaRoche
Stephen Drew
Vernon Wells
Geovany Soto
Ryan Doumit
Brian Roberts
Alex Rios
Brad Hawpe
Cody Ross
Matt Kemp
Justin Morneau
Nick Markakis
Fernando Tatis
Carlos Pena
Mark DeRosa
Torii Hunter
Mike Aviles
Shane Victorino
Clint Barmes
Bobby Abreu
Jody Gerut
Jorge Cantu
Magglio Ordonez
Scott Hairston
Alexei Ramirez
Eric Hinske
Jeff Baker
Troy Glaus
J.J. Hardy
Jim Edmonds
Raul Ibanez
David Murphy
Jack Cust
Luke Scott
Ronnie Belliard
Melvin Mora
Jhonny Peralta
Josh Willingham
Marlon Byrd
Mark Reynolds
Derrek Lee
Fred Lewis
Edwin Encarnacion
Casey Blake
Jason Kubel
Miguel Olivo
Adrian Beltre
Hunter Pence
Kaz Matsui
Randy Winn
Brandon Phillips
Denard Span
Jacoby Ellsbury
Conor Jackson
Mike Lowell
David DeJesus
Chris Young
Orlando Hudson
Brian Giles
Justin Upton
Kelly Johnson
B.J. Upton
Ian Stewart
Chris Snyder
Joe Mauer
Carlos Guillen
Garrett Atkins
Jay Bruce
Jose Lopez
Alex Gordon
Willie Harris
Adam Lind
Bengie Molina
Coco Crisp
Ray Durham
Paul Konerko
Scott Rolen
Ichiro Suzuki
Ryan Zimmerman
Cristian Guzman
Howie Kendrick
Ben Francisco
Carl Crawford
James Loney
Garret Anderson
Jose Guillen
Ryan Church
Kevin Kouzmanoff
Lastings Milledge
Chase Headley
Rickie Weeks
Joe Inglett
Placido Polanco
Ramon Vazquez
Gabe Gross
Hideki Matsui
Willy Taveras
Ken Griffey Jr.
Chris Coste
Delmon Young
Michael Young
A.J. Pierzynski
Russell Martin
Reed Johnson
Lyle Overbay
Derek Jeter
Skip Schumaker
Jeff Kent
Ivan Rodriguez
Jeremy Hermida
Geoff Blum
Adam Jones
Miguel Tejada
Omar Infante
Rich Aurilia
Luis Gonzalez
Casey Kotchman
Nick Swisher
Willy Aybar
Matt Stairs
John Bowker
Rod Barajas
Nick Punto
David Dellucci
Robinson Cano
Jose Bautista
Aaron Rowand
Ramon Hernandez
Jed Lowrie
Ryan Garko
Brandon Boggs
Ryan Sweeney
Mark Teahen
Juan Pierre
Mark Grudzielanek
Pedro Feliz
Mark Ellis
Jesus Flores
Aaron Miles
Franklin Gutierrez
Dioner Navarro
Erick Aybar
Carlos Gomez
Mark Kotsay
Billy Butler
Yunel Escobar
Kosuke Fukudome
Brendan Harris
Kevin Millar
Bill Hall
Geoff Jenkins
Maicer Izturis
Blake Dewitt
Gerald Laird
Jason Bartlett
Yuniesky Betancourt
Emil Brown
Orlando Cabrera
Adam Kennedy
Todd Helton
Alexi Casilla
Troy Tulowitzki
Felipe Lopez
Edgar Renteria
Yadier Molina
Alfredo Amezaga
Richie Sexson
Akinori Iwamura
Juan Uribe
Doug Mientkiewicz
Edgar Gonzalez
Jose Castillo
Ryan Theriot
Brandon Inge
Carlos Gonzalez
Damion Easley
Freddy Sanchez
Gary Matthews Jr.
Brian Schneider
Kurt Suzuki
Jay Payton
Asdrubal Cabrera
Marco Scutaro
Michael Bourn
Chone Figgins
Jason Michaels
Julio Lugo
Darin Erstad
Jamey Carroll
Melky Cabrera
Jeff Francoeur
Jason Varitek
Luis Castillo
John Buck
Jeremy Reed
Bobby Crosby
Cesar Izturis
David Eckstein
Jeff Keppinger
Khalil Greene
Jack Hannahan
Jack Wilson
Ross Gload
Jason Kendall
Joey Gathright
Tadahito Iguchi
Gregor Blanco
Paul Bako
Brad Wilkerson
Jeff Mathis
Austin Kearns
Craig Counsell
Daric Barton
Omar Vizquel
Now for ELF, Eye Luck Factor, which is probably the most iffy part, but it shows who has the best discipline and BABIP.
Albert Pujols
Milton Bradley
Adam Dunn
J.D. Drew
Chipper Jones
Carlos Pena
Jason Giambi
David Wright
Jack Cust
Craig Counsell
Chris Iannetta
Gregor Blanco
Todd Helton
B.J. Upton
Hanley Ramirez
Mark Teixeira
Lance Berkman
Pat Burrell
Doug Mientkiewicz
Manny Ramirez
Elijah Dukes
Nick Markakis
Denard Span
Joe Mauer
Grady Sizemore
Shin-Soo Choo
Kosuke Fukudome
Prince Fielder
Mark DeRosa
Chris Snyder
Josh Willingham
Rickie Weeks
Justin Upton
Russell Martin
Brian Giles
Brad Hawpe
Brandon Boggs
Matt Holliday
Jason Bay
David Ortiz
Carlos Beltran
Brian Roberts
Jayson Werth
Kevin Youkilis
Aramis Ramirez
Jim Thome
Troy Glaus
Ray Durham
Carlos Guillen
Ken Griffey Jr.
Jed Lowrie
Luis Castillo
Alex Gordon
Alex Rodriguez
Chone Figgins
Ramon Vazquez
Jim Edmonds
Daric Barton
Asdrubal Cabrera
Dan Uggla
Ryan Ludwick
Jamey Carroll
Nate McLouth
Andre Ethier
Ian Stewart
Blake Dewitt
Ryan Braun
Marlon Byrd
Gabe Gross
Nick Swisher
Brad Wilkerson
Akinori Iwamura
Jack Hannahan
Curtis Granderson
Brandon Inge
Chase Utley
Josh Hamilton
Mike Cameron
Kevin Millar
Marco Scutaro
Paul Konerko
Johnny Damon
Julio Lugo
Geovany Soto
Justin Morneau
Carlos Quentin
Ronnie Belliard
Ryan Garko
Willie Harris
Jason Kendall
Randy Winn
Conor Jackson
Richie Sexson
Ryan Theriot
Edwin Encarnacion
Kelly Shoppach
Scott Rolen
Ryan Howard
Reed Johnson
Matt Stairs
Joey Votto
Evan Longoria
Jason Varitek
Fred Lewis
Kaz Matsui
Kelly Johnson
Lyle Overbay
Bobby Abreu
Ryan Sweeney
Luke Scott
Mark Reynolds
Luis Gonzalez
Adam LaRoche
Jimmy Rollins
Chase Headley
Jeff Mathis
Ian Kinsler
Mark Ellis
Coco Crisp
Raul Ibanez
Hideki Matsui
Brian Schneider
Brian McCann
David DeJesus
Jose Reyes
Casey Blake
Ryan Church
Aubrey Huff
David Eckstein
Fernando Tatis
Eric Hinske
Rick Ankiel
Jeff Baker
Joe Inglett
Austin Kearns
Dustin Pedroia
Carlos Lee
Jason Kubel
Ichiro Suzuki
Omar Infante
Willy Aybar
Yunel Escobar
Alfonso Soriano
Ben Francisco
Carlos Delgado
Ty Wigginton
Jody Gerut
Chris Young
Gerald Laird
Gary Matthews Jr.
Brendan Harris
Bill Hall
Miguel Cabrera
Adrian Gonzalez
Scott Hairston
Willy Taveras
Alexi Casilla
John Buck
Shane Victorino
Derrek Lee
Joey Gathright
Jeremy Hermida
Mike Lowell
Felipe Lopez
Cody Ross
Jose Bautista
Orlando Cabrera
Jacoby Ellsbury
Nick Punto
Omar Vizquel
Melvin Mora
Derek Jeter
Paul Bako
Torii Hunter
Stephen Drew
Aaron Rowand
Adrian Beltre
Lastings Milledge
Xavier Nady
Mark Teahen
Chris Coste
Matt Kemp
Michael Young
Magglio Ordonez
Geoff Jenkins
Kurt Suzuki
Michael Bourn
David Dellucci
Maicer Izturis
Jason Michaels
Cesar Izturis
Jay Bruce
Geoff Blum
Ramon Hernandez
Troy Tulowitzki
Orlando Hudson
Juan Pierre
Skip Schumaker
J.J. Hardy
David Murphy
Jason Bartlett
Jeremy Reed
Ryan Doumit
Jorge Cantu
Franklin Gutierrez
Christopher Davis
Vladimir Guerrero
Mark Grudzielanek
Carl Crawford
Placido Polanco
Dioner Navarro
Jermaine Dye
Brandon Phillips
Ryan Zimmerman
Mike Jacobs
Alex Rios
Edgar Gonzalez
Rich Aurilia
Delmon Young
Vernon Wells
Garrett Atkins
Erick Aybar
James Loney
Casey Kotchman
Khalil Greene
Darin Erstad
Hunter Pence
Juan Uribe
Jesus Flores
Adam Jones
Alfredo Amezaga
Melky Cabrera
Jhonny Peralta
Carlos Gomez
Jeff Francoeur
John Bowker
Bobby Crosby
Jeff Keppinger
Cristian Guzman
Garret Anderson
Mark Kotsay
Howie Kendrick
Jeff Kent
Marcus Thames
Rod Barajas
Adam Lind
Edgar Renteria
Ross Gload
Kevin Kouzmanoff
Tadahito Iguchi
Yadier Molina
Jack Wilson
Damion Easley
Adam Kennedy
Pedro Feliz
Emil Brown
Jay Payton
Aaron Miles
Jose Lopez
Clint Barmes
Corey Hart
Mike Aviles
A.J. Pierzynski
Ivan Rodriguez
Bengie Molina
Freddy Sanchez
Robinson Cano
Jose Castillo
Billy Butler
Carlos Gonzalez
Alexei Ramirez
Jose Guillen
Miguel Olivo
Miguel Tejada
Yuniesky Betancourt
Now that I write it out like that, I can see that I valued on-base stuff too much… but it’s still interesting, since each stat list is different to some extent
What I was going for here is just to show what actually happened last year. I’d definitely like to advance the stat further though… just not sure exactly how. first things first, I’m going to take the above discussion into account for next year (or if I get the time, I’ll redo this stuff, heh).
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 7, 2009 2:49 AM EST
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also, I created a comedy stat
called TF, or Tard Factor, which is R x HR x RBI, which I haven’t gotten around to yet
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 7, 2009 2:52 AM EST
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BEF doesn't have Albert Pujols
at #1, so I won’t consider it legitimate stat ;)
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on
Jan 7, 2009 8:21 AM EST
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I think the flaw in this stat
Is that you are penalizing players for having a lot of hits since hits are the denominator and rewarded for hitting less, but for power hence Dunn and Howard at the top. Dividing by the number of hits probably isn’t ideal. I would be curious to see a similar calculation done by taking ((TB + SB – CS + BB)/PA) I think if you do that, albert will rocket to the top. I am at work or I would do it my self.
And I say England's greatest prime minister was Lord Palmerston.
by tangledbrett on
Jan 7, 2009 6:37 PM EST
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well
he’s already at the top of everything except the BEF part (and the pretty inconsequential p/pa/30 part). thanks though, perhaps I should call that part something as another component of OAR
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 7, 2009 10:46 PM EST
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Point Taken
Good post anyway.
And I say England's greatest prime minister was Lord Palmerston.
by tangledbrett on
Jan 8, 2009 12:50 AM EST
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BEF is
actually a stat, minus the baserunning stuff. From 1966 called Power Factor.
So multiplying it by BA gives you something like (slg/avg)*avg, so BEA is a roundabout way of getting slugging percentage with some stolen base numbers or something.
by haltz on
Jan 7, 2009 4:01 AM EST
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so do you think I should multiply steals by .8 or so?
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 7, 2009 1:03 PM EST
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I think a good way to include SB/CS would be using their average historical win expectancy values. Beyond the Box Score had a recent “Best Base Stealers” article which used Tom Tango’s linear weights: .22*SB – .38*CS, reflecting a degree to which stealing is worth less than being caught.
by astrostl on
Jan 7, 2009 2:00 PM EST
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I suppose I should say Pete Palmer’s linear weights, as presented by Tom Tango?
by astrostl on
Jan 7, 2009 2:02 PM EST
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Maybe
if you put CS in the denominator that would work out about right (I think that’s similar to the ratio in EqA). You could use the linear weights values, but then you’re just copying linear weights.
Essentially what you have right now is a version of PF that uses net stolen bases and a version of SLG% that also uses NSB. So have basically SLG% with a big emphasis on ISOP and you are adding that (or something) to your version on-base ability with P/PA and BABIP thrown in.
by haltz on
Jan 7, 2009 2:06 PM EST
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well,
sB+CS in the denominator, I would say. That way, the denominator would be somewhat reminiscent of “total attempts at bases”
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on
Jan 7, 2009 3:24 PM EST
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I was thinking
that since at-bats is basically hits+outs, you could throw the CS in with the outs, and reduce the value of stolen bases at the same time. So something like:
(TB+.8SB)/(AB+CS)
Which is (S+2D+3T+4HR+.8SB)/(AB+CS)
if you threw in BB and sacrifices you’d essentially have the basis for EqR.
by haltz on
Jan 7, 2009 3:45 PM EST
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what would be the main difference
of changing it to divided by hits, divided by at bats, and divided by plate appearances? I have a pretty good idea but I’d like to hear some other views
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 7, 2009 10:47 PM EST
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If you don't add
walks to the top and the bottom, then it becomes slugging over plate appearances, which will be bad for players that walk a lot. If you add BB and do it over plate appearances, you have a run estimator that’s not as good as EqA or wOBA because the weights are off a bit. Essentially what you are doing is OPS at this point anyway, just with some arbitrary numbers.
by haltz on
Jan 8, 2009 12:14 AM EST
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And like I mentioned
earlier, a big ISOP component.
by haltz on
Jan 8, 2009 12:14 AM EST
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hmm
I’m not sure if you understood what I was talking about…
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 8, 2009 12:56 AM EST
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you were asking
what the difference is in changing the denominator, right?
by hits is an iso ratio + SB (BEF)
by at-bats it’s slg% +SB (BEA)
by plate appearances would mean you divide by BB, SF and ROE as well.
Depends on what you want to measure.
by haltz on
Jan 8, 2009 7:36 AM EST
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yeah
I knew about PF… but throw in steals and it’s different, plus it’s probably the least creative part of OAR, although it is of course really important
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 7, 2009 1:03 PM EST
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If it's really well-known stat
with a minor tweak, it’s probably good form to at least mention that while you are making up new acronyms.
What’s the other part, btw? Now I’m curious.
by haltz on
Jan 7, 2009 2:27 PM EST
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huh?
BEF, BEA, ELF, RELF and P/PA/30 are all elements of OAR
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 7, 2009 2:58 PM EST
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Not a big deal
to me. If I know I was basically just throwing in net stolen bases with one stat that a lot of people know, and one stat that everyone knows, I’d say that.
If you mean the second thing I said, what I meant was that I was curious about the composition of ELF.
by haltz on
Jan 7, 2009 3:49 PM EST
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yeah
it’s kind of interesting, does the inclusion of SB make it a truly new stat, or not? I’m not sure.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 7, 2009 4:05 PM EST
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Interesting Post
Thanks for putting it together. Something different at least. I’m surprised Izturis didn’t show up in the worst hitters segment. I guess you don’t get penalized for weak pop-ups under your formula :-)
And I say England's greatest prime minister was Lord Palmerston.
by tangledbrett on
Jan 7, 2009 12:45 PM EST
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