"I don't know!" "Third base!"
by DanUpBaby on Jan 23, 2009 12:21 PM EST
91 comments
Well, I guess now it's time to see how the Cardinals' vaunted third base depth really looks.
Glaus's injury comes as a big surprise, even though he's Troy Glaus—I haven't seen any season prediction that does less than count on him to play the full season he did last year, even though he came to St. Louis with a reputation of being made out of breakaway movie glass. But now he's going to miss approximately one Injured-Cardinal-Month, which could be anywhere from twenty-one hours to one Mark Mulder Unit.
What is that going to look like? Well, let's be blunt about it—here's one sixth of his ZiPS projection, and one sixth of David Freese's. Extrapolated Runs is just an all-purpose offensive stat, like runs created only easier to calculate in Excel. (Rounding accounts for the weird averages; XR calculation was done with the messy, unrounded numbers, for what it's worth.)
| G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | XR | |
| Glaus | 27 | 95 | 13 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 20 | .258 | .359 | .451 | 16 |
| Freese | 27 | 104 | 14 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 20 | .265 | .320 | .420 | 14 |
Two runs seems low to me, for the seven walks and the lower slugging percentage, but I couldn't find the error in my math, and runs created produced the same result; in any case, it shows, more or less, what you would expect: if any half-decent player on this Cardinals team is going to be sidelined for a month without torpedoing the Cardinals' chances, it's Troy Glaus.
Meanwhile, poor Allen Craig; the guy ahead of you on the depth chart gets injured the year after you put up an .867 OPS on the Texas League and the local paper won't even put you ahead of Joes Thurston and Mather on the depth chart. I haven't seen Craig play defense, so his supposedly shaky glove is all hearsay to me, but there's something about his hitting numbers thus far that I like a lot. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he ends up a nice, cheap right field option next to Colby Rasmus in a few years.
Speaking of which: I'd love to get Joe Mather's bat in the lineup, but not if his glove didn't allow him to stick at third as a Palm Beach Cardinal. This whole converting outfielders back to the infield thing is a lot of fun, but I have a feeling it'll be gone, as a storyline, by February, when the outfielders actually start playing the infield.
As for the external candidate... well, Craig Counsell is a real defensive whiz—his career UZR/150 at third is 20.2, and he can play the rest of the infield positions with equal skill—and he managed a .355 OBP last year. He'd make a great Aaron Miles substitute, and given his playing style he'd probably become an instant Made La Russa Man. But as a hitter he looks just about wiped out; over the last two years he's failed to crack a .310 slugging percentage, and he's now a 38-year-old backup middle infielder.
And now, mid-entry, Rosenthal is reporting the Brewers have resigned him. Good on them. As a pick-up expressly to replace Aaron Miles and his stand-at-defensive-position antics it might have added a few runs to this Cardinals team, but I'd hate to have Counsell go into the season as the starter at third; if Glaus has a set-back, I could have seen Counsell, heretofore the stop-gap, noodling his way into the Abraham Nuñez role and starting at third all year, while Freese hits home runs off the bench.
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your math is correct
at least, checking it by GPA gives me 2.38 runs different.
Thank goodness we missed out on counsell. I really want to see one of the kids, at least for a month or so.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
by SleepyCA on Jan 23, 2009 12:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
fwiw
those projections seem conservative. Glaus hit .277/.374/.538 from June 1-end of season last year; but even if you use those numbers, with the same PA’s, it’s just 5.3 runs. And Freese will make some of that up with his glove, if glaus’ UZR is representative of how good he actually was, and the scouting reports on freese are true.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
by SleepyCA on Jan 23, 2009 12:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't mind getting Weasel
but not too sad that the Brewers picked him up again… I just think he would have took playing time from the youngsters.
Hopefully Freese won’t be hampered too much by his injury. We won’t take much of a hit from losing Glaus for a month or whatever then. But it does suck that we won’t have our 3rd best hitter come opening day.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 23, 2009 12:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Freese
needs to get his shot before he gets much older. We need to know what we have there as a major league player. At FR they mentioned that it would be silly to start Wallace’s service time. I agree with that completely, but he could our hand with a Pujolsian type performance courtesy of Glaus’ Bobby Bonilla-like injury. Maybe he comes up and never goes back down, and provides the missing offense we’ve been looking for. Crazier things have happened.
by Toddius on Jan 23, 2009 12:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
yeah
I have a good feeling about Freese, I think he’s going to be an excellent player
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 23, 2009 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I saw the parallel..
as well between the Pujols-Bonilla situation and Wallace. However, I don’t know how you fit Wallace, Glaus and Pujols all in the same lineup. Wallace would have to go down IMO when Glaus came back. I don’t see anyway Wallace makes the team out of ST. I’m hoping Freese comes up and either sky-rockets his trade-value or solidifies himself as an important utility player ala Spezio (3B, 1B, 2B, LF, RF, hell…maybe SS).
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
by cardzfanbub on Jan 23, 2009 2:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
someone has to through the ridiculous notion out there....
If you are looking to fit wallace, pujols and glaus into the same line-up… try 3B 1B and 2B respectively. I am not saying it makes much sense, but hell maybe Glaus can play adequately enough there defensively (I know… right? lol). Just think of that production sitting at 2B!!! AND THEN Kennedy could become trade bait! 8-D
lol… oh pipe dreams!
by streamman on Jan 23, 2009 5:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
For a moment I thought
you were being serious…
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
by cardzfanbub on Jan 23, 2009 5:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wallace could play
LF – and Ank or Ludwick could become tradebait. They’re reportedly going to work Wallace out in LF anyway.
by Toddius on Jan 23, 2009 5:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Draft Pick
What does this mean for the possible draft pick compensation we would get for Glaus as he turns FA at the end of the year? Was he projected as an “A”? For how long would he have to be out to possibly loose that status, assuming he plays the rest at his typical level? One month? Two months? Damn……
by Woodwork on Jan 23, 2009 1:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
glaus will be in an elias class
with 3B, 2B and SS. most likely a type A.
would stl offer arb to glaus who could match or better his 08 salary through arb in 09, with the depth there is in the minors?
without a gentlemans agreement that he declines, i doubt it.
by ball in play on Jan 23, 2009 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
phooie
match or better his 09 salary through arb in 2010.
by ball in play on Jan 23, 2009 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good thought, but don't fret too much...
It’s unlikely that the team would offer arbitration, which is what must happen if they are to get compensation when he departs. With the depth at 3rd base, and the fact that Glaus is making 11MM this season, there’s no way they would offer him arby on the chance he would accept.
Now, if a team were dumb enough (Hi, Brian Sabean) to sign him before the first week or so of December 2009, then the Cards get compensation whether or not they offered arby by the deadline. In fact we are much more likely to get compensation if he’s a type ‘B’, since the signing team wouldn’t have to give a pick if they signed him before this deadline.
Bottom line: with the youngsters getting a chance to scrum for a month of at-bats and the possibility that this will drag Glaus from a Type ‘A’ to a Type ‘B’ status , this injury could be a blessing for the team, in the end.
by meat on Jan 23, 2009 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ah, but if they offer arb and he accepts
he becomes quite the trade chip. Assuming he ends the season healthy.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
by SleepyCA on Jan 23, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see it, Sleepy
Though I’d have to take a look at the other FA 3B after 2009, and whether Troy would be the star of that class. But an oft-injured 12-15MM 33year-old 3B? I highly doubt other teams would be pounding on Mo’s door for an audience.
by meat on Jan 23, 2009 1:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
per cot's -- 2010 3b FA's
though glaus didn’t make the list (?!?) — Beltre, Glaus, Chone and Chippah are the top names. I could see Beltre and Chone going b/c of glaus’s age and injury history. If Wigginton gets a one-year, you throw his name in the mix in 2010 too.
Adrian Beltre SEA
Hank Blalock TEX
Geoff Blum HOU
Pedro Feliz * PHI
Chone Figgins LAA
Chipper Jones ATL
Mike Lamb MIN
Melvin Mora * BAL
Chad Tracy ARZ
by tom s. on Jan 23, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's a pretty solid group...
you suppose Freese is happier about the Glaus surger than anybody? 3B is his to lose.
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
by cardzfanbub on Jan 23, 2009 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well, yeah
regarding that group, only beltre and jones are anywhere close to on par with glaus, unless someone has a monster year. And chipper will probably re-up with ATL.
WAR for the last 3 years:
name team 06 07 08 total Adrian Beltre SEA 4.9, 3.0, 4.1 (12) Hank Blalock TEX (-0.4), 1.3, 0.8 (1.7) Geoff Blum HOU 1.1, 0.4, 1.0 (2.5) Pedro Feliz * PHI 1.9, 3.1, 1.5 (6.5) Chone Figgins LAA 0.0, 3.2, 2.3 (5.5) Chipper Jones ATL 4.3, 7.2, 7.6 (19.1) Mike Lamb MIN 2.1, 1.5, (-1.2) (2.4) Melvin Mora * BAL 1.3, 2.2, 2.7 (6.2) Chad Tracy ARZ 2.1, 1.2, (-0.5) (2.8) Troy Glaus STL 3.9, 2.9, 5.2 (12)
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
by SleepyCA on Jan 23, 2009 2:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The weakness of that (after 2009) group
does strengthen your position on Glaus’ attractiveness to other teams if he were to accept arby under such a scenario.
But since he could demand 15MM in arby if he’s healthy, and there’s no guarantee we would have suitors capable of paying him that money AND sending us a prospect that would be worth a damn, I maintain that it would be exceedingly risky to take a chance on offering it to him.
by meat on Jan 23, 2009 4:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
or just trade him before the deadline this year
"I'm as nauseous as I've ever been. I have a terrible headache. My head is pounding. I feel like throwing up and I'm having trouble swallowing. And the beauty of it is, you want to feel like this every day." - Tony LaRussa
by adiueordie on Jan 23, 2009 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the no trade agreement makes that complicated
he loses the no-trade if he accepts arbitration, though.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
by SleepyCA on Jan 23, 2009 2:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
he'd probably accept a trade
only a contender would be interested in him, and he has to see the writing on the wall even now with all the youngsters creeping up on him.
"I'm as nauseous as I've ever been. I have a terrible headache. My head is pounding. I feel like throwing up and I'm having trouble swallowing. And the beauty of it is, you want to feel like this every day." - Tony LaRussa
by adiueordie on Jan 23, 2009 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
are we 100% on a NTA? I mean, I naturally assumed that he still has his NTA but when I was reading the rumor mill when we got Glaus yesterday I kept coming across quotes similar to this.
Both players were also required to waive no-trade clauses.
I’ve only done a cursory glance to see if I can find anything to refute this to no avail.
One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.
by AdjustedExpectations on Jan 23, 2009 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bliss scenario – (IMO)
Freese/Wallace has an excellent ST and Freese carries it over while subbing for Glaus
Glaus goes through a proper rehab and shows no effects by time he gets to the team, hits well.
Trade Glaus pre-deadline for something of need.
All while Wallace mashes at Spfd/Memphis and gets a Sept call-up.
Freese becomes next winter’s trade chip.
One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.
by AdjustedExpectations on Jan 23, 2009 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
min would be an obvious trade target.
bos might want him if lowell is still hurting.
Anybody think the yanks will do what they should have done a couple years ago — Jeter → 2b; Rodriguez → SS; external 3B?
any of those three would have pitching to trade.
by tom s. on Jan 23, 2009 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Metrodome Turf
Would Glaus waive the no-trade to go back to playing half his games on turf, plus 3-4 in Toronto? It was the Rogers Centre turf that supposedly led to his 2007 injury.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Jan 23, 2009 4:43 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
What happens to
Cano in that scenario?
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jan 23, 2009 11:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
trade, i imagine.
i think they’re ready to let him go.
by tom s. on Jan 24, 2009 2:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bliss Scenario - IMO
Freese/Wallace has an excellent ST and Freese carries it over while subbing for Glaus
Glaus goes through a proper rehab and shows no effects by time he gets to the team, hits well.
Trade Freese pre-deadline for something of need – since he’s young and cheap other team gives us more value.
All while Wallace mashes at Spfd/Memphis and gets a Sept call-up.
Glaus walks next winter and Wallace is our starting 3rd baseman with Craig the backup.
I’d be pretty happy with either of the two above scenarios.
by birdo rojo on Jan 23, 2009 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I just don’t know how much value Freese would build over a month of playing and then a backup role. Selling high may take until the end of season.
But I wouldn’t be too upset with that scenario either.
Of course the key variable is what the other side of the trade offers.
One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.
by AdjustedExpectations on Jan 23, 2009 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the way i remember it, he waived it to come here
but he’d have to waive it again to go somewhere else. But that could be wrong.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
by SleepyCA on Jan 23, 2009 3:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
cots reports
glaus exchanged his no-trade cluse in exchange for his option year being picked up.
by ball in play on Jan 23, 2009 4:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that's definitely wrong
his option was a player option. Mo had to convince him to exercise it before he made the trade.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
by SleepyCA on Jan 23, 2009 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
“acquired by stl in a trade from TOR 1-14-2008, w/glaus waiving his no-trade clause and exercising 2009 player option as part of the deal”…..is how it reads. for me, he no longer has a no-trade clause.
by ball in play on Jan 23, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
waive
I take it to mean he waived the clause for “that particular trade” not an outright removal of NTC.
by Recon on Jan 23, 2009 5:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
indeed.
"I'm as nauseous as I've ever been. I have a terrible headache. My head is pounding. I feel like throwing up and I'm having trouble swallowing. And the beauty of it is, you want to feel like this every day." - Tony LaRussa
by adiueordie on Jan 23, 2009 5:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hadn't considered that.
with a little more research, have found that during the same contract, he also waived his NTC to allow being traded to TOR. so twice during this contract, he has waived it, which leads me to now believe the NTC stays in place. REVERSE, appears he has a NTC.
by ball in play on Jan 23, 2009 5:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Offering Glaus arbitration makes complete sense
Lets say he does accept arbitration when we really wanted the pick. We could cut our loses and only pay 1/6th of the contract if we couldn’t trade him before the season started. Free Agent Arbitration contracts do not guarantee a roster spot. You can release a player before the season starts and only have to pay 1/6th of the Arbitration amount. So if he got lets say $12M than we would only be guaranteed $2M from us. That seems like a good risk to take if you think a first round pick is worth more than that.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 23, 2009 6:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So I can sign 2-3 Venezuelan/Dominican blue-chippers...
…or I can take a 2MM chance on paying another 1MM for a first round draft pick? I guess it depends on the draft class, but if they value their Latin presence at all, that might oughtta be a better place to spend 3MM.
by meat on Jan 24, 2009 1:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the good news is
he is compared against 2B, SS and 3B, and playing time isn’t considered (though less playing time will obviously cause the things that are considered to be lower). What is considered is:
PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI, Fielding percentage, Total chances at designated position
He would have been a type A this off-season, but just barely. link. So as long as he outperforms his 2006, which seems likely based on the low number of PA’s and poor performance in 2006, and a bunch of guys don’t climb above him, he’ll be an “A”.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
by SleepyCA on Jan 23, 2009 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This struck me as odd..
Here’s a part of the Extrapolated Runs formula…
+ (.18 × SB) + (−.32 × CS) + ((−.098 × (AB − H)) [AB – H is roughly outs made at the plate]
How come a caught-stealing is weighted so high? I mean, it’s still an out, right? And caught-stealing implies you found a way on base, which implies possible advancement of any runners on. And the outs are weighted so low, and they imply no possible advancement of any runner (notice sacrifices aren’t included in AB – H). Sure, a fielder’s choice and a CS is basically hitting into a double play, and a groundball to the right side of the infield advancing a runner to third WOULD qualify as advancing a runner on an out, but they happen relatively infrequently, I’d say. Infrequently enough that those situations shouldn’t affect the formula, really.
What I basically want is for someone smarter than me to explain this to me. What I’m really interested in is a place where one can read the research put into all of this formula and many others. Is there, like, a database anywhere? Or a book? I know James puts his stuff in his books, but what about non-Jamesian stuff?
by ajabegg on Jan 23, 2009 1:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
getting on base is hard
once you are on base, it hurts your team more to make an out than it would otherwise.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
by SleepyCA on Jan 23, 2009 1:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah but most of the time the manager tells you to steal
so it’s not really the runner’s fault, unless they are slow, then the manager shouldn’t have told the player to run.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 23, 2009 2:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How? Am I missing something? Getting on base has positive ramifications that are met regardless of if you get thrown out stealing — moving runners up, giving the next batter at least some chance to get on base (which otherwise wouldn’t have happened if the dude who got caught stealing got on base with two outs).
I just fail to see how getting out on the basepaths is any worse (statistically, anyway — it’s self-evident it’d hurt the morale much more than otherwise getting out) than not reaching base at all.
I…I don’t believe I’m rocking the sabrmetric community. I’m sure they’re right. I’m just not sure why.
by ajabegg on Jan 23, 2009 5:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The caught stealing valuation
is applied after they are on base. It ignores the value produced by GETTING on base on only applies a detriment for getting picked off. He should get credit for getting on in the first place somewhere else in the formula.
by azruavatar on Jan 23, 2009 5:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh! See, this is why you guys are smart and I’m dumb. It seems so obvious now. That was really bothering me.
by ajabegg on Jan 23, 2009 5:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Let's say we have three rookies who come up to bat, never having had a PA before.
Following this formula, analyze it this way.
Rookie A hits a single. He remains at first without attempting to steal. He has created .50 runs.
Rookie B hits a single. He successfully steals second. He has created .68 runs.
Rookie C hits a single. He is caught stealing second. He has created .18 runs.
The .18 runs Rookie C creates comes solely from his potential to drive in or advance anyone on the basepaths on his original hit, because Rookie C cannot score. Rookies A and B have created runs by both by potentially driving in runs and by making it safely on the basepaths where someone else can drive them in.
Bonus, contrast Rookie B with Rookie D. Rookie D hits a double and makes no attempt to steal 3d. He has created .72 runs, more than Rookie B’s runs created, because he had a better chance to drive in a runner from first.
by tom s. on Jan 23, 2009 5:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You guys, smart. Me dumb. God I love this website. All it needs is more Chris Lambert.
by ajabegg on Jan 23, 2009 5:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ha
But now he’s going to miss approximately one Injured-Cardinal-Month, which could be anywhere from twenty-one hours to one Mark Mulder Unit.
this made me laugh…then cry…
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
by nomar34 on Jan 23, 2009 1:34 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Wow
I’d like to know the last time that “one Injured-Cardinal-Month” only ended up being twenty-one hours…
by saladdays on Jan 23, 2009 1:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
albert was close i heard one month - 6 weeks and then he came back in 15 days
*cough Ben Sheets *cough Sheets
I must be getting a Sheets cold.
by bearcatcardfan on Jan 23, 2009 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
And you know, we’re not even factoring in the ICFUS (Inevitable Cardinal Follow-Up Surgery). So long Troy, it was nice knowin’ ya!
by MdRedbirdFreak on Jan 23, 2009 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Outfield arms
According to the Hardball Times annual outfield arms study, the Cardinals have two good ones. I’m sure none of us are surprised to see Ankiel 6th of 25 in CF, but also Studwick comes in 2nd among RFs:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/best-outfield-arms-of-2008/
by mikedallas45 on Jan 23, 2009 1:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Rick is #1 in holding runners.
Impressive (but not surprising).
defy, cards, defy. hey logic --- you suck.
by effin fisk on Jan 23, 2009 2:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
that’s an underrated talent methinks
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 23, 2009 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I've thought about this way too much bored in an econ class
But it’s probably surprisingly best to have a good arm but not so good such that people don’t run on you ever.
So it’s say 75% success rate to break even on stolen base attempts against just not stealing. For an extreme example say a catcher throws out 100% of base stealers, there will never be an attempt to steal. Whereas a catcher like Molina who throws out 65% of stealers is netting a better outcome despite not being as good at throwing out runners.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Jan 23, 2009 3:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that was the argument dodgers fans used
to support the russell martin GG 2 years ago. Martin threw more guys out because more guys challenged him, and he was still better than 25% successful, so he was more of a net benefit to the team.
Alfonso Soriano would be the outfield equivelant of this, i think.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
by SleepyCA on Jan 23, 2009 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I mean it's kinda crap in determining awards like that
And not using abstract numbers like 100% it’d be really complicated to determine the exact break even anyway. But Ankiel’s highlight reel throws might have HURT his long term arm value.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Jan 23, 2009 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hmmm
me not think of it that way… eventually I think people will test him more, but the other side of the token is, if he throws more often, then perhaps he makes more bad throws.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 23, 2009 4:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was going to say something similar...
I’d rather have the complete absence of teams going 1st to 3rd on a base hit to CF or RF, tagging from second to third on a fly ball, or stretching a single into a double than to have them throwing out every other guy. Same goes for Yadi cutting down another team’s running game by pure reputation and fear of being picked off for having a good lead. I really do think this has a more positive effect on overall team defense than can be quantified by defensive metrics.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 23, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
If you really believe that “throwing out every other guy” who does try to stretch it to 3B or whatever is less beneficial than runners simply not going I don’t know what to say. You’d pretty much be saying that a runner on 2nd should try to steal 3rd base even if he gets thrown out half the time.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Jan 23, 2009 4:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think he is arguing
That current defense metrics do not take in to account Molina’s ability to stop a run game without throwing the ball. It also isn’t taking into account Ankiel reputation for a gun preventing players from advancing an additional base. (Schumaker was considered to have the best Arm in our Minor Leagues)
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 23, 2009 6:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's not what I'm saying at all...
You’d pretty much be saying that a runner on 2nd should try to steal 3rd base even if he gets thrown out half the time.
I don’t know where you get this line of reasoning, but that’s not what I’m saying at all. Molina, by pure reputation alone, cuts down on the number of attempts at stolen bases by the other team — I think it is more beneficial to not have them running at all vs. have them running 50% of the time and throwing half of those guys out. You’re literally taking away an offensive option from the other team, and you’re also making baserunners more fearful of getting picked off, so they are less aggressive and more prone to making baserunning mistakes. I’m not sure how that line of think equates to your quote in any way at all.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 24, 2009 12:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
no way
that only hurts (potentially) his perceived value to awards givers. if he throws out 65% then 35% advance. that’s more than the zero that advance if his 100% deters them from even leaving the bag.
by spencegrif on Jan 23, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That night in Colorado sure did linger, I’m not sure that his last 30 or so games he was healthy enough to really be that much of a threat.
One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.
by AdjustedExpectations on Jan 23, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
true
shoulda been on the DL
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 23, 2009 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Because I ragged on you for "Tuesday Notes"
I now have to tell you that the Who’s On First reference literally made me laugh out loud (awkwardly, in the campus library). Couldn’t have been more perfect. Bravo on that one, DanUp.
by mojowo11 on Jan 23, 2009 2:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
posted without comment
The Cardinals are stacked at third base, even after losing handy utilityman Aaron Miles to the Cubs.
- Jeff Gordon
by Birds on the Matt on Jan 23, 2009 2:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
oh god. hadn't thought about that
fast forward to opening day: “starting at third base – number twelve, aaron miiiiiiiles”
you know tony wouldn’t be able to resist getting grit in the lineup any way possible.
thanks, hendry.
p.s. in no way do i agree with jeff gordon about anything, ever, but he’s probably right to assume tony would include miles in the race for 3rd. so he kind of accidentally got this one right.
"I'm as nauseous as I've ever been. I have a terrible headache. My head is pounding. I feel like throwing up and I'm having trouble swallowing. And the beauty of it is, you want to feel like this every day." - Tony LaRussa
by adiueordie on Jan 23, 2009 2:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How does Jeff Gordon have a job?
I know any number of people that could do a better job w/ the space he is given.
Sign Ben Sheets!
by bmorgan on Jan 23, 2009 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i smell VEB petition #2.
To p-d — sign MomUpBaby!!! Fire Gordo!
by tom s. on Jan 23, 2009 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd read that column
Go MomUp!
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 23, 2009 3:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
??????????????
what column i want to read it
*cough Ben Sheets *cough Sheets
I must be getting a Sheets cold.
by bearcatcardfan on Jan 23, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ANY Jeff Gordon column on the p-d
They’re all awful and contain no reporting.
Sign Ben Sheets!
by bmorgan on Jan 23, 2009 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm slow
i thought there was a sample of momups writing
but I guess ya’ll are just saying that anyone is better than jeff gordon
*cough Ben Sheets *cough Sheets
I must be getting a Sheets cold.
by bearcatcardfan on Jan 24, 2009 3:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Danup did get his writing talent from me.
Well maybe not. I think I will just keep my official position as the Danup photographer, isn’t a picture worth a 1000 words.
by momup on Jan 24, 2009 9:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't come play for the Cardinals!
Think I’m kidding?
-Trade for Scott Rolen: Shoulder tear
-Trade for Mark Mulder: Shoulder tear
-Trade for Troy Glaus: Shoulder tear
Refuse a trade or get out of town after 1 year!
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 23, 2009 2:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
yeah that first full year is always a good one...
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
by nomar34 on Jan 23, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
rolen had 3ish good years
*cough Ben Sheets *cough Sheets
I must be getting a Sheets cold.
by bearcatcardfan on Jan 23, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
but he didn't even make it through his first year
here without hurting that shoulder.
Did he end up having surgery on it in 02 after the Cintron Incident?
Researching it, I came across this interesting theory:
Scott Rolen Hates Baseball, But Isn’t Lazy
“Eckstein said Rolen reveled in rumbling into middle infielders, which could be contagious.”
His continued wreckless abandon can mean only that he loathes the game in which he has made his name, and is trying to sabotage it. Hey this isn’t my opinion, it’s science.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jan 23, 2009 6:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So now we have 2
guys on the Adam Dunn Doesn’t Like Baseball All-Star Team. I think you could add Jeff Kent at 2B as well, I think he’s been quoted to the effect that he’s not nuts about baseball.
Gotta say, one of my favorite sights in baseball is Scott Rolen going into 2nd to break up a DP. A steamroller.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Jan 23, 2009 9:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If you watched Jeff Kent's retirement presser
you would not think he dislikes baseball.
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 24, 2009 1:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also
- Trade for Larry Walker: Broken neck.
- Sign Reggie Sanders: Broken leg.
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 24, 2009 1:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Rolen was the man
If memory serves, wasn’t Rolens health issue with his knees before we got him? It wasn’t until his collision with ol’ Hee-Seop that his ongoing shoulder problems began and he became a shell of his former self.
by Jerkface on Jan 26, 2009 1:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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