Super-Twos
Verducci has an interesting piece today that discusses Hamels/Shields contracts and attributes Hamels much higher aggregate salary in his new contract to the fact that Hamels was called up too early in May to be a super-two.
Interesting topic as it relates to Rasmus. What exactly is the economic argument for bringing up Colby before June 1? With a glut of OF already doesn't it make sense to keep him at AAA for 3 months and then bring him up so he doesn't lose a year of cost control? What kind of numbers would you need to have aplayer put up to justify breaking camp with him.
Only difference I can see is that Colby is an everyday player so if he makes roster you might get 60-70 games from him whereas with Hamels they only got two starts.
Thoughts?
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51 comments
Comments
If this is a kid they’re going to want to sign long term one day, why wait? It seems that clubs usually buy out most of the abitration years on their top prospects anyway.with that said, if he goes through his usual slow start in each league-I’d rather have it earlier in the season rather than the middle of a season or pennant race.
by CardFan@theLake on Jan 21, 2009 7:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think it's a tough call...
there’s a good chance that Rasmus is not one of our three best OF’s come April (Ank, Ludwick and Mather). If everyone’s healthy and playing well, I think it makes sense to start the year with these three as the starters and Dunc and Schu in reserve. Hopefully by midseason Ankiel or to a lesser extent Duncan have increased their value by proving their health, and we can trade to fill some hole(s)…thus opening a spot for Rasmus. I feel this would be best for everyone including Colby who IMO could use a little more seasoning. If Colby is tearing things up in Florida, or one or more of the other five get hurt it changes the whole picture.
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
by cardzfanbub on Jan 21, 2009 9:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Rasmus Should Start at Memphis
Rasmus has only had about two productive months at AAA. He recovered nicely in June and July last season from a very poor April and May. To echo the sentiment, he “could use a little more seasoning”. If he can show this April and May in Memphis what he able to do last June and July, then St. Louis should give him a midseason call-up. There is no reason to rush Rasmus.
"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray
by memphiscub on Jan 21, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you a cubs fan
yea, i’d be scared too
by VolsnCards5 on Jan 21, 2009 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
(Oops!) What He Able=What He Was Able
"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray
by memphiscub on Jan 21, 2009 3:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
For me it has nothing to do with Super 2 status
I want to see him go to AAA and absolutely rake for two months, get some confidence at that level, then come up to the big leagues, hopefully to take the spot in CF and leadoff.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 21, 2009 10:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
That said
if he comes out and has an awesome spring, put him in CF and let him hit in front of Pujols in the leadoff of 2 spot, and look at trading Rick or Skippy for a pitcher or second baseman.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 21, 2009 10:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you
It would be best for him to have some time at AAA. We also have a bunch of guys that can play OF when he’s there. That said, if he mashes in ST, let him start in St. Louis.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 21, 2009 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Let’s assume he does well in ST. Regardless of the long term savings we might achieve by waiting three months, bring him up. Interesting that there is much talk on the Board that we need to focus on cost controlled players and that we shouldn’t waste money on free agents. Cards management generally follows that logic as well. But in the case Verducci discusses, there is $11 million (Future value dollars) on the table. In Rasmus’ case could be that or more.
Seems to me that with the team not wanting to spend even a couple million on Springer, a better second basemen, etc that they would not then throw away that value by bringing him up early. Isn’t that what last year’s ST decision was all about?
I want to see Rasmus as well, especially if he is tearing it up, but if I were Mo, I’d have to be pushed pretty hard by DeWitt before I put him on the roster prior to June 1.
Just win
by The Duke on Jan 21, 2009 7:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Here's the problem with that logic
If he tears it up in spring training, and Ankiel, Skip, and Mather all have average ST’s with the bat, how do you justify sending him down? The only way to justify it is with salary concerns — and players don’t soon forget it when you screw them over in the interest of money. If he plays well enough in ST to effective earn the starting spot than he should start there, and the team should look at buying up his arb years with a contract, to avoid huge arbitration payments later one — similar to what they did with Wainwright and Yadier.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 22, 2009 11:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I hear you
I agree with that dynamic but for 11 million I’d put up with that angst.
Just win
by The Duke on Jan 22, 2009 9:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You nailed it fourstick
and there are reverberations beyond just Rasmus. If we get a rep for holding guys down just to be cheap then it may well affect our ability to sign future draft picks and/or international players. If Colby earns it he should be on the big league roster and in the starting lineup. Seems to have worked out pretty well with that Pujols guy.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Jan 23, 2009 1:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
my question pertains more to Wallace
Especially since Glaus won’t be ready be opening day from the sound of things.
If he hits the cover off of the ball in Spring Training and Freese and Craig struggle it’s not a stretch to say he’ll have a shot at jumping into the lineup. He has a monster bat, period., but I’d hate to see us start his clock if they just intend on sending him back to Memphis after Glaus returns, which they should.
I guess in his case I’d rather see him start the year in AAA regardless.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 23, 2009 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well actually
If they intend to send him back to Memphis after Glaus comes back, that’d significantly lessen the potential SuperTwo implication of starting his clock.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Jan 27, 2009 10:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think they probably should bring him up mid-season
but I suppose there’s merits to letting him just start in the big leagues after spring training, ONLY IF he has a scorching spring
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 21, 2009 1:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Stupid computer, I ment to say Rasmus lilely won't do as well as our other OF next year
- Ludwick was a stud and he will play everyday.
-Skip was very good, he played above average defense and was good enough offensively to bat leadoff everyday. According to WAR, Skip was a 2.5 win player last year. That is actually better than Ankiel. I don’t think Skip should play everyday, especially against lefties, but there is a very good possibility that he would be better than Raz.
-Ankiel has star potential and is a fan favorite, so barring a trade he will play everyday, or at least full time against righties.
-Joe Mather has great potential and will be a very valuable player next year. Great OPS numbers in the minors, big time power and athleticism, he should definitely get a lot of playing time next year.
-Duncan is a guy who if he could regain his hitting form prior too the injury, could end up being the best hitter in the OF. He definitely deserves a shot to get at bats, and if he is healthy he should probably start, at least against righties who he CLOBBERS.
-Even Barton has a case to be better than Rasmus next year. He is probably a better version of Skip. Better defense (worse arm, but better range), more pop, excellent speed and OBP skills. He would be leading off for a lot of other teams.
Right now Rasmus is the youngest of the group and is coming off of the worst season. Even before you go into the question of how much money will be saved if he is brought up later, he really shouldn’t take away a spot from one of these guys barring a HUGE spring training. I would love to see Raz start in the bigs next year, he has great potential and should be exciting to watch. But it doesn’t make sense from a financial or performance standpoint to start Raz in the bigs.
by vivaelpujols on Jan 21, 2009 9:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd disagree
Raz probably won’t be as productive as Luddy or a healthy Ankiel. But, Skip had a career year IMO, and I seriously doubt he will be able to improve, unless he learns how to hit lefties. Mather is good and will be productive, but Raz is a better defender than Joey. Unless Dunc hits the cover off the ball in ST, I think he should start the year in AAA on a rehab assignment. And, I just don’t see Barton having much of a future with the team (too many other outfielders in the system, wasn’t given a whole lot of opportunities last year, etc….). There is also still a chance that one of these 6 big league OF’s gets moved before the start of the season.
Also this kinda made me excited when I read it the other day.
Raz hit 29 home runs in AA, so he already has decent power. To know that he (and Luddy) are improving strengthwise just makes me feel even more comfortable with him being our starting CF this year.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Jan 23, 2009 8:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Barton is our best option for leadoff imo
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 24, 2009 3:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I definitely like his leadoff
potential over Skip’s. I just don’t think he will really get an opportunity to ever prove that potential with us. He sat alot of last year, even when he wasn’t injured. Skip was our leadoff man, despite not being able to hit lefties, at all. Now if Rasmus shows well in ST he will make the roster and probably be our leadoff guy. That means we start, Luddy/Raz/Ankiel with probably Mather and Schu off the bench. That leaves Barton as the odd man out. Now if we were to trade Skip or Ank that would help out. Start Bombs or Barton and hopefully C-Dunc is fully healthy. I would like to start Barton because I would rather have Raz in the 2-spot in the lineup. Luddy/Raz/Barton doesn’t look bad to me. I like Crabman and his ability, I just don’t see him fitting in with the roster at this point in time.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Jan 24, 2009 8:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Surely you jest about Skip
His above average defense was confined to LF where he was one of the worst offensive contributors at that position in the NL. Sure, his defense is good compared to Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Carlos Lee, and Pat Burrell, but that doesn’t make him a good defensive OF. His skillset is only valuable in CF and he posted a -6.8 UZR/150 in CF last year and a -19 in very limited action in 2007.
Colby would be a more valuable player than Skip right now just because of his defensive superiority. He runs better and it really isn’t all that hard to put up an OPS in the ballpark of Skip’s platoon-inflated .765. James and Marcel have him projected in that vicinity ( and with a slightly higher wOBA) without being platooned and with 22 and 16 SB respectively.
None of the guys you mentioned is really even an average CF defensively except Ludwick in that was only in 64 innings. I love Mather, but it would be completely unfair to expect him to play CF with any regularity – he was -27.3 UZR/150 in limited PT in CF in 2008.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Jan 23, 2009 2:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Schu was more valuable than Dunn last year
by vivaelpujols on Jan 23, 2009 2:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
huh?
how do you come up with that?
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 23, 2009 3:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Skip - 2.6 WAR, Dunn - 1.8 WAR
Dunn’s defense really kills him
by vivaelpujols on Jan 23, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
skip can't hit lefties
has a lesser OBP, and has less than half the power of Dunn.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 23, 2009 5:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
plus he's more of a platoon player
so I don’t buy the war thing
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 23, 2009 5:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What?
Skip wasn’t a platoon player last year and he had a good offensive year. Dunn was about 20 runs worse on defense than Skip and has been that way for a while. Skip was a better player than Dunn last year in a similar amount of playing time.
by vivaelpujols on Jan 23, 2009 7:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re-phrase
He would better serve the team as a platoon player. Skip has the least upside of any of the outfielders. If he platooned the leadoff spot with Barton or Raz he would serve the team much more effectively.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Jan 23, 2009 7:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you
I’m just saying that Schu was a better player than Dunn last year.
by vivaelpujols on Jan 23, 2009 8:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
By one measure
I think most of us would agree that offensive measurements have more certainty than defensive. Dunn was 4 wins better offensively than Skip and that is a pretty solid number. Dave Cameron at fangraphs states that he thinks the UZR fielding numbers have a margin of error 5 runs or there about.
That means that Skip was worth somewhere between 5.8 and -4.2 runs defensively and Dunn was “worth” -17.8 to -27.8 runs. I don’t think you can look at those numbers and say that a player who was a 2.6 WAR player is categorically better than a 1.8 WAR player. He was likely better, but with that much difference in UZR between two players who didn’t even play the same mix of positions, it is pretty hard to just flat out say Skip was better.
What you can say with a high degree of certainty is that Dunn should be a DH and would have been one of the top three in the AL had he played the “position”.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Jan 23, 2009 8:45 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Dunn was only 2 wins better on offense than Skip
by vivaelpujols on Jan 23, 2009 8:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Skip isn't that good on offense
sure he had a high batting average, but what else was he good at? he is obviously faster than Dunn, so I guess this makes him close to the level that Dunn hits? surely his OBP is less than Dunn’s…
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 24, 2009 3:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dunn is far better on offense
His wOBA is about 40 points higher than Skip’s. Clearly Dunn is a much better hitter, the point is that Dunn’s cost nearly as many runs with the glove, as he gains with the bat.
by vivaelpujols on Jan 24, 2009 12:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree too
I think a Double Headed threat of Barton/Schumaker would be a lead off machine. I wouldn’t mind us trading multiple outfielders. I could live with a Schumaker, Barton, Mather, Rasmus, and Ludwick OF.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 24, 2009 6:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that sounds good
although I’d rather have Ank than Skip any day of the week
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 24, 2009 6:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If I have to choose between Dunn and Skip
I’m picking Dunn. I can suffer through poor defense for 100+ walks, 40 HR’s, and a .380 OBP. Imagine him backing up Albert…or even batting in front of him.
I wouldn’t rely on WAR as the say all and end all for comparing players, but it does have some value.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Jan 23, 2009 5:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
do you think WAR values defense too highly?
what stat would say that Dunn is that far below average in defense as to negate what he brings to the plate with his offense?
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 23, 2009 5:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
a good place to start to evaluate is fangraphs' player pages
so Skip’s stats and Dunn’s stats can be easily compared. The really interesting stuff is at the bottom (see “fielding” and "value").
Some of Dunn’s defense is just heart-stoppingly bad. The first thing you’ll notice in looking at UZR is that dunn should never ever be in RF. He pulled down 180+ innings in RF and had a UZR/150 of -71.2 in 2008. He really desperately needs to go to the Angels and DH there. He seems to have acquired a stable level of suck in left field, but it’s still suck.
In the value section, you may find some explanation of why this contradicts your general thoughts about Dunn. Generally, he’s about a 3 win player, but had only . He had a terrible year both defensively (AZ putting him out of position in RF probably had a lot to do with this, since his LF defense actually improved) and offensively. Skip had a great year. So, Dunn’s fielding went from a steady -12, -14, -16 runs over the previous three years to a dreadful -22 runs in value. His hitting receded from 2007 by 7 runs, too.
Long and short, Dunn was played out of position which hurt his defensive ratings, and had a bit of a slump. Skip had a career year.
by tom s. on Jan 23, 2009 5:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
but Skip’s hitting is overrated imo
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 23, 2009 6:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nobody overrates Skip's hitting
Decent BA and OBP. He will give you 10 steals and 10 homers. Against lefties, he’s terrible, but if is in a platoon with Barton next year and hits against righties the way he hit this year, he would be even more valuable.
by vivaelpujols on Jan 23, 2009 8:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It really comes down to
whether you have to keep Skip to bat leadoff. I would rather see Rasmus bat leadoff with Ludwick in RF and Mather/Duncan (assuming he is healthy) in LF. Move Ank and Skip for someting of value. I like Barton, but I don’t think TLR is going to give him a shot with so much other talent available to play OF. Either play him in AAA or move him too.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Jan 23, 2009 8:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would like to see
Barton and Skip platoon in the leadoff spot.
by vivaelpujols on Jan 24, 2009 12:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Imagine
1. Schumaker/Barton
2. Rasmus
3. Pujols
4. Ludwick
5. Glaus
6. Molina
7. Greene
8. Pitcher
9. Kennedy
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 24, 2009 6:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would have
to swap Greene and Molina. Otherwise, it all depends on what he get for Ankiel, Mather, Duncan, etc.
I would also swap Pujols and Ludwick.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Jan 24, 2009 7:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What?
Pujols ALWAYS bats third. But yeah, it actually makes sense to bat Luddy third and the pitcher NINTH, then Pujols would get more RBI opportunities and Ludwick would get protection. I like it.
by vivaelpujols on Jan 24, 2009 11:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
+1
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Jan 23, 2009 6:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That is true
because Dunn’s defense was truly horrific. Skip was rated as the best defensive LF in the NL with a 22.3 UZR, by far the best of his limited career and the only real indication that he is a superior LF. He was a below average CF and, prior to 2008, a below average LF. Skip will have to be a platoon LF who puts up the best defense in the league in order to maintain his value. It was a career year for Skip and Adam Dunn just has no business playing in the OF.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Jan 23, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I could buy the argument
that Skip is so much cheaper in salary that he’s better… does WAR have anything to do with that?
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 23, 2009 5:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No
It just compared a player offense+defense+positional adjustment+replacement level bump due to playing time.
by vivaelpujols on Jan 23, 2009 7:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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