Tuesday notes
by DanUpBaby on Jan 20, 2009 8:45 AM EST
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PrintI missed discussing it in my haste to free-associate about Chris Duncan, but Todd Wellemeyer avoided arbitration at the same time, to a more significant tune of $4.05 million. Roster matrix:
2009 ROSTER MATRIX
ARBITRATION AVOIDANCE EDITION
| STARTERS | BENCH | ROTATION | PEN |
|---|---|---|---|
| molina c $3.3m |
thurston ut $400K |
wainwright rhp $2.6m |
perez rhp $400K |
| pujols 1b $16m |
duncan lf $850K |
lohse rhp $7.1m |
franklin rhp $2.5m |
| kennedy 2b $4m |
barton of $400K |
pineiro rhp $7.5m |
motte rhp $400K |
| glaus 3b $11.3m |
mather of $400K |
wellemeyer rhp $4.05m |
mcclellan rhp $400K |
| greene $6.5m |
ryan ut $400K |
carpenter rhp $14m |
kinney rhp $400K |
| schumaker lf $450K |
rasmus of memphis |
boggs rhp memphis |
thompson rhp $500K |
| ankiel cf $2.5m |
larue c $950k |
todd rhp memphis |
miller lhp $500k |
| ludwick rf $1.8m |
freese 3b memphis |
mortensen rhp memphis |
--- --- --- --- |
| TOTAL $45.5m |
TOTAL $3.4m |
TOTAL $35.25m |
TOTAL $5.1m |
| OVERALL | PAYROLL: | $89.25m |
Dunc and Wellemeyer's raises would push the Cardinals' 2009 payroll a little further out of the DeWallet Party's sensibilities, except that the jump is absorbed by revising Trever Miller's salary back down from the reported two-year deal and replacing Aaron Miles with a six-figure player. At $89 million the Cardinals are in an odd place—they still have a significant amount of payroll leeway, but aside from their infield depth, which will have to be include a guy who's not yet on the roster, they're in a position where they could theoretically field a competent team of salaried players.
As for Wellemeyer, $4 million isn't out of line with what he offers the Cardinals, but it's not a screaming deal, either; Dave Duncan has earned his title as Chief Pitching Sorcerer, but long is the list of players who appear to figure things out and then... well, unlearn them over the winter. Combine that with peripherals that don't mesh well with a 3.71 ERA and Wellemeyer is a fair bet to disappoint, even if we really shouldn't be disappointed.
Of course, Wellemeyer's enemy, context, might also be his friend, if the Cardinals' other pitchers remain this side of inspiring. Fungoes has a series of increasingly depressing hypothetical projections to that effect, with a cautionary aside about Ben Sheets. I can't agree about not pulling the trigger on a Sheets-type move, but there's something to the idea that the Cardinals have spent themselves into a mediocre rotation.
Look up at the matrix: the best pitcher on the team is the one making $2.6 million. Carpenter is the fragile elephant in the room, and symptomatic of another problem, but his absence emphasizes the trouble behind the Cardinals' other two contracted starters: in Pineiro and Lohse the Cardinals have paid the free agent rate for supplemental players, only there's nothing there to supplement. As the last piece of a rotation filled with young and/or great pitchers—Wainwright and perfect-world Anthony Reyes and Carpenter, for instance—the Kyle Lohse contract doesn't seem so outrageous. But as foundations go he makes an excellent roof.
Finally, Derrick Goold kept twittering from the Winter Warm-up, and up came an interesting quote from La Russa:
La Russa on Ludwick's wish to hit 50 HR: "If he paid attention in meetings, he'd know we don't talk about hitting home runs."
I'm guessing there was a La Russa Grin somewhere in this quote, but I have to admit that the sentiment expressed in it is one that I've never understood. If Ludwick had said his goal was to steal more bases, or make more contact—not a word. But for a lot of baseball types, who've had ninety years this April to accept it as the most valuable of offensive weapons, hitting a home run is still something you sort of do on accident, while you're trying to help the team and give a hundred percent and just put the ball in play.
There's no serious problem with this kind of thinking, at least in its La Russian permutation; he's a great manager, and if he doesn't understand what puts runs on the board, it's certainly clear by now that he knows how to handle the players that do it. But Inside Baseball's weird shame about hitting home runs has always puzzled me.
Ryan Ludwick is a power hitter. His job is to score runs, and the way he does that is by hitting a lot of home runs. If he hits 50 next year and it turns out that he doesn't help the team by doing it, I will personally cater every meeting La Russa holds or attends in 2010, baseball-related or not. I mentioned this quote when it happened, but Ludwick's recent comment, in jest as it might have been, made me think about it again. Here's Matt Stairs after his pinch-homer in the NLCS.
Q. Matt, you're on the all-time list of pinch-hit homers. What is your approach when you go out there, and do you ever think I want to hit a homer? Do you try to hit a homer ever?
MATT STAIRS: Well, I mean, my whole career, even back in the early days when I signed back whenever with Montreal, my approach was try to hit the ball out of the ballpark. And it's something I enjoyed doing.
It carries over from batting practice. In batting practice I try to hit every ball out of the ballpark. And I'm not going to lie, it's fun, when you're there and you're hitting balls out of the ballpark.
It's one thing, I think the biggest thing is get up there, see how far you're going to hit the ball. I'm not going to lie, I try to hit home runs and that's it.
It's not exactly "I hit big or I miss big", as poetic home run quotes go, but nobody who's taken even a passing look at Matt Stairs on a baseball diamond would ever have disagreed with the man if he'd brought it up sooner. Ludwick's far better-rounded, if not as a shape than as a hitter and a baseball player, but this is a moment where I have to guess—and hope—that the distance between Tony La Russa the lifelong baseball observer and Tony La Russa the manager speaking to the press about one of his players was greater than usual.
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HR Shame
I cringed when I read that quote from Ludwick. A player trying to hit runs runs as his sole goal will likely have both a poor season overall at the plate and still not hit that many home runs. Just ask 2008 Khalil Greene. Home runs are a product of putting a good swing and thus good contact on the ball. Swinging for the fences will likely result in a lot of Ks and fly balls.
Right
A player who tries to hit home runs often screws up their swing. A home run hitter naturally hits home runs. A guy trying to hit home runs often pops up to the second baseman.
Now, I think everyone should take the whole thing with a grain of salt (as hard as that might be for some). Ludwick isn’t going to focus solely on hitting homeruns and LaRussa was teasing one of his players. No big deal.
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
by Tackle Box on Jan 20, 2009 9:25 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
agreed
Ludwick isn’t going to go out there w/ Matt Stairs’ mentality. He’s not going to change his approach one bit, I would bet. It’s just an off-season quote from a bored player at an interview. I don’t think there is any reason to have any sort of reaction to him saying that except to laugh.
BUT if he is healthy all year (and he’ll be a regular ALL year long unlike last year), he’ll definitely get enough at-bats to up his HR production. 50 would not be impossible if he continues last year’s numbers.
Sign Ben Sheets!
It sort of depends though
If you are trying to hit home runs by pulling off the ball or losing body control, than yeah you’re going to screw yourself up.
If you are trying to hit home runs by being more selective and being very aggressive when you get “your pitch,” then I see nothing wrong with that.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 20, 2009 9:54 AM EST up reply actions
If that's the case
then you’re probably trying to hit line drives. And as we all know, hitting line drives is a pretty good way to hit the ball out of the park among other things.
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
I would
be more worried about Ludwick if he said, “I’m going to try to keep the ball on the ground this year to avoid flying out.” To hit homeruns, you have to hit the ball hard, in the air, and get a significant piece of the ball. I think if Ludwick is trying to hit the ball hard, and in the air, that’s a good thing. Every hitter tries to catch the ball on the sweet spot every single swing. I hope he hits 60 this year, whether he’s “trying” to or not.
I would cringe
if it were a Fernando Tatis-type player saying that. Out of Ludwick’s mouth, I don’t mind so much.
speaking a different language
If you’ve ever coached (and had a clue about what you were doing), then you’ll understand that LaRussa frequently engages in “coach-speak.” (Don’t look it up, it ain’t in Webster.)
LaRussa knows that a HR scores at least 1 run. He’s no dummy. But he doesn’t want guys getting caught up in individual stats. It isn’t that he doesn’t care about individual goals if we pay attention to what he says throughout the season; rather, he wants the focus and the conversation to remain on the team.
I coached basketball for 9 years, and when I had good 3 point shooters, I did what I could as a coach to put them in position to shoot 3s. But there’s a big difference between taking a “good” 3-point attempt and just chucking the ball from behind the line. So we didn’t talk about who was going to make the most 3s each night. We talked about things like taking good shots, moving without the ball, hustling on defense. A lot of those things don’t show up on the stat sheet, but it puts the emphasis on the team. I know that basketball and baseball aren’t equivalents when talking about “team” sports. “Coach-speak” still applies, however.
LaRussa doesn’t want to put a lid on Luddy’s HR totals. That would be stupid.
My first memory of Cardinals baseball is seeing Darrell Porter jump into Bruce Sutter's arms on October 20, 1982!
Agree--and add "player-speak" to the lexicon, too
The difficulty about reading quotes is that one loses the inflection and often the context. Luddy was probably caught describing what more he’d like to accomplish and for a guy who’s waited as long as he has for some Big Show adulation, why not throw a “50” out there a month before ST?
As for TLR, add his wry sarcasm to his style of “coach-speak” and let’s not take any of this too seriously.
I saw something recently
Maybe it was on the MLB Network — some really good premiere player from forever ago (Roger Maris, I think) said that he was trying to hit a home run every time he came to the plate.
So yeah, maybe it’s not a terrible thing.
Maris
I’ve read something about the season that Maris broke the record. He was encouraged to go up there and hit the crap out of the ball everytime. He changed his approch and broke the home run record. His batting average also fell from the year before and he didn’t win the MVP after winning it the previous year. I’m not saying one way or the other over the homerun debate (mainly because I never made it out of poney league so I don’t play baseball very well). Just commenting on what you said.
Yeah whatever
I’m not actually advocating swinging for the fences. That kind of approach may have worked for Maris, but he was an exceptional talent. Most people can’t get away with it.
This comment, made by me, prompted a response by me
Re-reading this, I immediately thought of Edmonds.
Should normal people plant their feet in two different time zones and swing the bat straight up, then hop on their back foot? No. Did it work pretty damn well for Jimothy Edmundo? Certainly did. Can’t knock it if it worked, but that doesn’t mean you should start teaching it to other people, either.
I thought i was the only one that called him jimothy
*cough Ben Sheets *cough Sheets
I must be getting a Sheets cold.
by bearcatcardfan on Jan 20, 2009 6:07 PM EST up reply actions
Actually, Maris did win the MVP in 61
for the second year in a row. His batting average went down, you are right, but almost every other significant batting statistic improved over his 1960 season.
Maris is one of 11 players to win the MVP award back to back.
by Youneverknow on Jan 20, 2009 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
It was Mantle
who claimed to swing for the fences all the time. Maris was a “do anything” for the team type guy. Roger Maris was excellent at bringing a runner in from third with a quick punch ground ball to the second baseman.
by Beardsville Rockers on Jan 20, 2009 11:16 PM EST up reply actions
So DeWallet has money to spend...
…He HAS to spend it on SOMETHING!!! He has to do SOMETHING!!! He needs to sign Wolf and Garland AND Mussina and Roger Clemens, and maybe Manny too!!! If he doesn’t, he’s CHEAP!!! And MO will show he has no ballzzz….LolZ what losers!!!
Kidding.
Basically there’s money there if they choose to spend it wisely. I’d be okay with Looper, maybe with Garland for a pipsqueak one-year deal (like $2.5M or something), and I’d definately be okay with rolling the dice on Sheets. What I DON’T, for any reason, want to see is MO ponying up any amount of money for Randy Wolf or $6-8M for Garland. Spending money just because it’s burning a hole in your pocket is just plain stupid. I don’t think this rotation is good enough yet, but a guy like Wolf would just make it worse IMO.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 20, 2009 9:58 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
+10000000000)000)0000
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
NO Garland, NO Wolf, NO Looper!
by jealousblues on Jan 20, 2009 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
garland won't take that deal unless it is april he already turned down 4 mil from the d-backs
*cough Ben Sheets *cough Sheets
I must be getting a Sheets cold.
by bearcatcardfan on Jan 20, 2009 6:09 PM EST up reply actions
So then Garland isn't a Cardinal
I can live with that…in fact, to be honest, it would probably be better. About all Garland brings to the table is the physical ability to stand on the mound and throw the ball home.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 20, 2009 7:51 PM EST up reply actions
If it make you feel any better
He signed a 2 year 13MM contract so it’s really just 6.5MM with 1MM backloaded….
I know that’s still bad… but not AS bad.
Think of it this way- 7.5MM comes off the books after this season!
www.salukihoops.com
by salukihoops on Jan 20, 2009 10:02 AM EST up reply actions
we should have just signed Darius Miles
to piss off the Portland Trailblazers…he could have played pick up games with school kids or something…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 20, 2009 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Line Drives
La Russa has long preached the mantra that if you try to hit line drives, the home runs will come. Aside from the teasing, I think that’s what he meant here.
Also
a lot of the best home run hitters, at least those who aren’t just moronically strong like Mark McGwire and Adam Dunn, really try to hit a bunch of line drives, and if some of them leave the park, great.
Look at guys like Ken Griffey Jr., or the pre-steroid Barry Bonds, or even Albert. Their home run power came from healthy overall hitting, not trying to hit home runs. If you’re just trying to hit monster moon shots, you end up like Matt Stairs or Russ Branyan. Perhaps not bad, but probably not great, either.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
Matt Holliday
might be a good example, too. More of a pure hitter, but if you hit it well and get under it just a little, it’s got a chance (esp. in CO).
Ted Williams used to say that the best swing was a slight uppercut, rather than swinging level (like you hear in little league). Ted knew a thing or two about hitting, and he hit his fair share of homeruns.
slight uppercut is one thing
but I don’t think anyone would accuse Ted Williams of trying to hit a home run every time up.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
I didn't mean
to imply that he was trying to hit a homerun every time. I think of Ted Williams as a pure hitter with lots of power – kind of like Albert or Stan Musial.
Williams Book
I think Williams was a proponent of a slight downswing on the ball. The downswing would put a backspin on the ball that would tend to make it carry. An upswing, OTOH, would put an overspin on the ball and make it tend to dive.
I read
Williams biography and he was quoted as saying the best swing is a slight uppercut. I don’t have the book on me, but I’m pretty confident that I’m not remembering it wrong.
That said, I don’t think the two statements are necessarily contradictory. You can put backspin on the ball without chopping down, and a slight uppercut would start with a downswing – quick through, long finish – would be the way a scout would describe it now.
in "the science of hitting", at least,
he suggests a slight uppercut, accompanied by illustrations of ball flight-paths that suggest that a level swing gets less of the path of the ball—or something like that. It’s been a while.
That seems to make sense
The ball will always be moving at a downward angle as it crosses the plate (more on breaking balls, less on fastballs), so to hit the ball most squarely you’d have to be swinging at a slight uppercut.
Then again, I know nothing about what I’m talking about…but I think that makes sense.
Luddy has that uppercut swing
but he still hits a ridiculous amount of line drives.
by vivaelpujols on Jan 20, 2009 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
Well yeah
A line drive doesn’t have to be hit flat. If there’s an angular distinction between a “fly ball” and a “line drive,” I don’t know what it is — but to hit a line drive single over an infielder’s head, you’d have to lift the ball to some degree.
Now that I think about it, I’m not really sure what the angular distinction between a ground ball and a line drive is. How long does a ball hit exactly parallel to the ground at (for the sake of simplicity) 100 MPH stay airborne? I certainly don’t know. I’d be interested to find out, though.
Well,
Accelleration of gravity is 9.8 m/sec, which is roughly 32 feet/second. Assuming the ball was 3 feet off the ground when hit, the ball will hit the ground (I will be off a bit, as I don’t know how to allow for the aerodynamics of backspin) in about .45 seconds. The ball should be traveling (my math may be a bit fuzzy, as I am an investment advisor, lol) about 147 ft/sec. I am guessing the ball would travel about 66.15 feet before hitting the ground if it has no backspin and does not slow down due to wind resistance.
The wildcard is the lift provided by the backspin on the ball after impact. A ball can actually come off the bat in a straight line, and if imparted enough backspin, can rise to a degree before succumbing to the forces of gravity.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
The Science of Hitting
I own the book so I’ll check it out; the question is whether or not I can find it. I could well be remembering it incorrectly but I also seem to remember it from an SI story where Williams was talking with Tony Gwynn. The same article where they were talking about smelling burning wood on a ball they foul straight back.
*Ahem*
9.8 m/(sec^2)
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
by jd is legend on Jan 20, 2009 5:47 PM EST up reply actions
Technically...
…it is 9.8 m/sec/sec, but then again, I shave my head with a knife and practice voodoo (religion, not economics)…what do I know?
"Yo bartender! Jobu needs a refill." - Harris, Major League
by Pedro Cerrano on Jan 21, 2009 8:15 AM EST up reply actions
same thing
dividing a quantity by another quantity twice is the same thing as dividing by the second quantity squared.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
Glaus has a sweet uppercut.
When he connects it’s almost like watching a lefty in the mirror jack one out.
man,, i really like Dunn
that guy is the definition of “country strong”. if he could field worth crap, i’d love to have him.
do you all remember the ball he almost hit out of GAB last year? it was like 4 or 5 rows from going out. holy cow, that’s takes some serious power to hit a ball that far.
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
yes, but
Dunn is a mirror image of Chris Duncan in LF (defense)… with one major exception: CD at least hustled; AD does not.
who cares?
Dunn is 3 times better at hitting than Duncan
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 21, 2009 12:42 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
I hate having to defend Dunn all the time
But where do you get the notion that he “doesn’t hustle”? Seriously, do you see him work out before games every day? Sit in the left field stands and watch him move around? Talk to his mother about what his workout habits were as a teenager? It’s awfully difficult to make a judgment on someone’s character when you don’t know that person, unless they go out of their way to prove their character to you in a good or bad way (ex. Albert Pujols and PacMan Jones).
From what I’ve seen he’s just a big, slow, broad shouldered brute that isn’t very fast and doesn’t move very quickly. Moses Malone never moved all that fast either, but I’d hardly call him lazy. Some guys just aren’t good at defense for any number of reasons, and Dunn just isn’t built to be an amazing defender — neither is Chris Duncan. I’d just like to see a team leave Dunn in LF for an extended length of time, instead of moving him from 1B to LF to RF all the time. I think he could be a slightly below average defender if he could simply get a feel for the position over a length of time.
If you want to talk about players who don’t care on defense, you can start with Manny Ramirez…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 21, 2009 8:42 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Yeah, but he's fat
and doesn’t like baseball…..
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
by Tackle Box on Jan 21, 2009 9:04 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
and all the NOOBs are confused
Wasn’t that about a year ago this very discussion came up or was it later in the spring?
doesn't this very discussion
come up about every other month?
I don’t just mean any generic lazy statement, I mean one about Dunn. I am just gonna start believing Dunn IS lazy. If so many people say it, doesn’t it have to be the truth?
Oh, and Dunn does hate baseball. Haven’t you people ever watched him try to tear the cover off it with his bat? People who like baseball don’t do that.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Sheets wants $18MM (a year) and two years with a third year option
Cannot see the Cards willing to do this….. nor do I want them to.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Jan 20, 2009 10:23 AM EST reply actions
If Sheets is healthy
that’s a steal – especially if that’s a club option.
I'd rather my sister be a prostitute than my brother a Cub fan.
But when
has Sheets ever been healthy? After his whopping 237 IP in 2004, he missed significant time the following three seasons. He approached 200 innings last year; does that mean he’s fully recovered from his injuries, or is he due to “break down” again?
Hence the conundrum…
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
by The Ol Goaler on Jan 20, 2009 10:37 AM EST up reply actions
I wonder how much of that $18M per needs to be guaranteed
I wonder if you could throw a 3Y, $60M contract at him, with something like $20M worth of the contract tied to how many innings he pitched. It’d make it a win/win—sheets would get a third guaranteed year, and the team would get some financial protection from having a guy who is completely hurt and not pitching at all on the team.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
He'd sign that in a heartbeat
The reports are that he’s seeking a two-year deal, worth roughly $9 million per season, with incentives and an option for a third season. He’s starting to hang a lot lower on the tree. Low enough for Mo, guess we’ll find out. I just wish there were some way to ask him.
"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin
by That's a Winner on Jan 20, 2009 11:28 AM EST up reply actions
exactly.
I msiread OKCARDSFAN_411’s original post.
Yes, according to Tom Verducci, he’s only asking for a 2-yr, $18M total contract, with 3rd yr option. That’s the bargain.
I'd rather my sister be a prostitute than my brother a Cub fan.
my bad
I misread the article….. sorry for the mess.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Jan 20, 2009 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
If that's true
That sounds like a good risk for a team in a WS hunt (not knowing anything about his medicals, mind you).
Imagine if Carp-Sheets-Waino all managed to be healthy for the playoffs.
Absolutely
that’s a bargain.
‘Specially if you could knock the guaranteed money down as some are suggesting. 7 million guaranteed doesn’t seem too crazy to me. Of course, you need to factor in the 10 million or so that first round pick is worth…
I took it as 18 per...
I don’t see how we don’t sign him for 2/$18 with an option. He was the second best free agent pitcher in a strong market! Yes, I think he’s a better pitcher than Burnett.
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
by cardzfanbub on Jan 20, 2009 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
What if I promise to buy a couple of tickets?
MO – if you’re reading this I promise to buy a couple of extra tickets if you sign Sheets to this deal?
Hope that helps.
It's not $18M per year
It’s $18M over 2 years with a third year option that’s been reported. That’s $9M per season, not $18M. topic has been posted in the new Hot Stove Thread.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Leave it to the cubbies
To throw a Priest under the bus.
Sure that’s it, blame God for losing.
"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin
by That's a Winner on Jan 20, 2009 10:52 AM EST reply actions
Basic Math
+
=
The Cubbies…It’s almost sad.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 20, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
Does deferred money not count
in terms of present-day payroll? Per Cot’s, both Pujols ($3 million) and Carpenter $2M) are deferring money. Might there be an extra $5M in DeWitt’s couch cushions?
by Anonymous Communist on Jan 20, 2009 11:19 AM EST reply actions
it is somewhat balanced out
by how badly low luddy’s arb estimate is.
by ball in play on Jan 20, 2009 11:32 AM EST up reply actions
if we're going down that road...
Then we have to include deferred salaries from years past in the 2009 matrix.
Didn’t McGwire do that?
I'd rather my sister be a prostitute than my brother a Cub fan.
Right
GAAP requires that expenses are reported when they are incurred, not when they are actually paid.
the cardinals may or may not use gaap, of course, since they aren’t a public company. and if there really is such a thing as a payroll ceiling, then cashflow should be what defines that particular type of trigger more than any form of derived accounting anyway. gaap would’ve said its profitable to add, say, sabathia and lowe at $10 million per year each, regardless of other obligations.
They aren't
required to use GAAP. I agree with that statement. I’m not sure I agree that GAAP would have said it was profitable to add Sabathia and Lowe at 10 mil per year. I think that would be an economic analysis that looks first at how many probable wins those players would add, then at how much revenue is added by the additional wins (through greater attendance, ad revenue, merchandise revenue, etc), then they would compare that number to the cost Maybe I don’t follow – how would GAAP have said that it was profitable to add players?
I was just...
…going to mention the deferred money. Pujols’ $3M doesn’t start getting paid back until 2020, so I think it should definitely be removed from the matrix. Carpenter’s entry on Cott’s doesn’t mention when the payback occurs, but it should also still be removed and then added to a matrix in whatever year(s) the payments occur.
On Sheets…the $18M he’s asking for is over two years, not per year. So…it’s $9M/year for two years with a third-year option.
by sabertooth5185 on Jan 20, 2009 11:30 AM EST reply actions
If your accounting scheme is as stated above, no.
All the previously deferred money going out now has already been accounted for.
If it is as sabertooth suggests, then of course you have to include it.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
Also...
…Duncan’s salary is $825K, not $850K. It’s a small nit to pick, but every little bit helps.
by sabertooth5185 on Jan 20, 2009 11:31 AM EST reply actions
You'll have to update the matrix with Thompson's...
$650K.
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
jerry crasnick of espn
mentions viva el birdos and the “sign ben sheets” petition in an article today.
"I'm as nauseous as I've ever been. I have a terrible headache. My head is pounding. I feel like throwing up and I'm having trouble swallowing. And the beauty of it is, you want to feel like this every day." - Tony LaRussa
Crasnick isn't too offensive
I think he at least has a rudimentary understanding of things beyond batting average and wins, although he uses them in his analysis somewhat regularly. He’s certainly better than Olney, more palatable than Law (at least Law’s chats, which are almost unreadable: “I’m much much smarter than you, and if you ask a silly question I’ll show you why by demeaning you”…oh, and he is brilliant and extremely knowledgable, he just knows it way too well), but nowhere near Rob Neyer, who is the f’ing man over there at the Worldwide Leader.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 20, 2009 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
What is this nonsense?
“Tuesday notes”? What boring title. You’re fired, DanUp. Your sharp wit can only get you so far.
I’m ashamed to be a fellow English major today. (More than usual, I mean.)
If I've managed to slip entries entitled Tuesday notes past you
to this point, does that make it a slight against both of our degrees?
by DanUpBaby on Jan 20, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Matrix is off a lot to my eye
Ankiel will probably get something closer to 3.25M and Ludwick 4M. Lohse got a signing bonus which counts against 09 of 1.25M bringing his total to 8.375M. Royce Ring signed for 475K. Miller has a base but has easy incentives to reach such as performance bonuses: $0.2M each for 40, 45, 50, 55 games; $0.225M each for 60, 65 games; $0.23M for 70 games. Villone pitched in 74 games last year so he could easily reach them all. Hitting them all will add another 1.48M to the budget and I bet the Cardinals budgeted it out that way. Brad Thompson got $650K not $500K.
That adds up to 6.305M unaccounted for on the Matrix raising true payroll level to $95.555M
Stat Whore
Forgot Mulder and Spiezio
Mulder had a buyout of $1.5M and Spiezio had one of 100K. Bring True Payroll to $97.155M, Holy shit we are broke!
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 20, 2009 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
Thats still enough
for next years “lohse”
by vivaelpujols on Jan 20, 2009 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
the numbers are out
Luddy will make at least $2.8M, maybe $4.25M. Ankiel will make $2.35M-$3.3M.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
Sounds About Right
Cardinals never go to arbitration though. It has probably been at least 10 years or more since a Cardinal actually went to arbitration.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 20, 2009 7:40 PM EST up reply actions
I believe I heard...
1999 or 2000 with Darren Oliver was the last hearing…
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
Arbitration Question
Just saw that Ryan Howard asked for $18M and the Phillies offered $14M. The article stated this is the 3rd highest ever with Clemens requesting $22M to claim the top spot.
My question is, what was Clemens doing in arbitration in 2005?
Free Agents can go through Arbitration also
After a player is done with his contract he can be offered Arbitration but the player can decline it.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 20, 2009 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks
Momentary brain lapse there. Guess that’s what I get for reading up on everyone’s service time and estimating super two eligibility.
I think Rasmus should start in Memphis
From my understand it doesn’t take much time in the minors to avoid Super Two Status. Less than 20 games.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 20, 2009 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
If he's good enough to play with the big boys, then play him.
He (and his agent) will certainly have a loooonnnnnggg memory if we try to play the system just to hold off his free-agent eligibility. Odds are pretty good that we would negotiate a buyout of his arb years anyway. So, why play with fire?
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
Check out the link I posted below
How much are those 20 games worth???
his agent is going to take us to the woodshed regardless
that’s what they do.
As far as buying out the FA years, by keeping him down for 20 days or so (like the rays did with longoria last year) we can wait one more year before buying out the first FA year.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
I agree with that
Read down towards the bottom of Verduci’s article on Hamels. He compared him to Sheilds and makes a very good case that the Phillies spent an extra $11MM because they called him up 19 days earlier and gave him two extra starts.
I’m not willing to credit the entire $11M to those two start, I think Hamels has been slightly better, but even knocking it down a couple of million makes it incredibly expensive.
He indicated that the end of May is usually a pretty safe call up date.
The only concern would be Colby’s psyche, but if he’s going to be any sort of player he’s going to have to learn to deal with more adversity during his career than waiting a few more weeks for his major league debut.
I think
they should handle him similarly to the way the Rays handled Longoria. That seemed to work out for everyone involved.
I don't think Rasmus is going to sign the ridiculously team friendly contract Longoria did
Little too much organizational friction so far.
Regardless, Longoria should practically fire his agent for that contract, I imagine the Rays’ management laughing as they proposed it.
Not afraid to nitpick
There are no
guarantees though. Longoria got that contract before he had done anything in the majors. It’s crazy team friendly now that he’s established himself as a very good player, but at the time he signed it he could have been a major league bust or, worse yet, could have been injured immediately upon arrival.
Tulowitzki signed an early deal, too, and had a very bad year last year. He’s still a good talent, but that “team friendly” deal didn’t work out quite so well. Time will tell in both cases. I’m just advocating the sign them early approach that the Rays took with Longoria.
Look
Alex Gordon is the “floor” comparison to Longoria IMO talent wise. Super duper prospect, looks like a big bust. Anyone think even still he’s going to earn less than 17M in his career? Casey Blake just got 17M. He’s protecting himself against catastrophic, like off-the-field-car-accident injury or Baldellian mitochondrial disorder (and even still Baldelli will likely earn 2-3M this year).
Longoria already had say 1M in the bank (3 mil bonus, ends up keeping about half, blows 500k) and was getting ~300k last year prorated and all. Signing away just about all your upside when you are already set for quite some time was just ridiculous. At least make the option years worth something, in 6 years 11M is going to buy you about a serviceable 4th starter if that.
PS is there anyone who wouldn’t take that 5/30 remaining on the Tulo contract off the Rockies’ hands?
I’d like to take the sign em early approach too, I would kill to sign Rasmus to the Longo contract right now even with his abysmal ‘08, I just don’t think that is all that reasonable to assume many other guys are going to be down for that lowball of a deal.
Not afraid to nitpick
Gordon isn't that bad
He improved a lot last year and he plays good defense. I’m really surprised that the Royals haven’t signed him long term yet. Instead they use the money to sign Kyle Farnsworth.
by vivaelpujols on Jan 20, 2009 9:58 PM EST up reply actions
He's about average
Which given the hype and his minor league numbers is a bust. That’s the point.
Not afraid to nitpick
Also
This is kinda ass-backwards, but I hope Rasmus does view himself as being better than 17M or whatever…
Not afraid to nitpick
For super-two status
do September call-ups count? Duncan is a super two who was called up in September 2005 and again in the second half of May 2006.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
sept callup days count as service time
if they don’t make the team the next spring. they don’t count if they do make the team out of spring training.
I think. I can’t find the article I read that in, though, (pretty sure it was on scout.com) so it’s just something I “know”; it certainly could be wrong.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
sounds like
you are talking about options.
by ball in play on Jan 20, 2009 9:27 PM EST up reply actions
no, i'm thinking of service time days.
though it’s true that you’d burn an option if you didn’t make the team the spring after being added to the 40 man for a callup.
Anyway, I can’t find the article, so I have to assume I dreamed it.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
super two
is entirely about service time accumulated. doesn’t matter what day of the season it is, it goes towards service time.
by ball in play on Jan 20, 2009 9:05 PM EST up reply actions
Lets all remember this discussion right here
So when Rasmus doesn’t make the team out of spring training we can fight any urge to be rude.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 20, 2009 5:10 PM EST up reply actions
I'll bookmark the article
and try to remember to relink to it when the fan is going full blast and copius amounts of excrement is hitting it.
If we didn't have SO MUCH depth...
in the OF I would tend to disagree, but considering that Rasmus is probably more likely to play WORSE (new level struggles and all) than whoever might start in his place than he is to play better I think waiting would be smart.
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
june 15th
stay in the minors till june 15 and two full years later a player won’t be super two eligible. june 1st debut can put a player on the bubble, depending on the % he is in his years class.
by ball in play on Jan 20, 2009 9:01 PM EST up reply actions
is there something special about june 15th?
Or is that just your estimate of a safe date?
So many darn rules ;)
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
where it falls in the season
june 15 to sept 15 is 90 days, plus the last 15 days of sept would total about 105 service days that year (0.105 days). add on 2 more full years and the player has 2.105 service time accumulated.
the super class normally falls in the 2.120+ yrs/days range. bringing the same player up june 1st, adds another 15 days to his total (2.105 + .015 days=2.120) and puts him on the bubble of 2.120 service time as super two eligible.
by ball in play on Jan 21, 2009 7:03 AM EST up reply actions
both
thompson (2.110) and ludwick (2.109) missed super two eligibility last offseaon. duncan at 2.144 this offseason qualifies.
schumaker at 2.051 and kinney 2.058 both missed sup2 elig this offseason, and will be arb elig next offseason.
royce ring at 1.128, if retained, could be sup2 elig before 2010 (bubble).
by ball in play on Jan 21, 2009 7:41 AM EST up reply actions
perez
acquired 0.136 service days in 08, add 2 full seasons (2.136) and he could easily be sup2 eligible.
mather, boggs, garcia, barden, motte all have under 0.100 days, needing at least 3 more yrs to reach arb
by ball in play on Jan 21, 2009 7:50 AM EST up reply actions
the Cardinals winter warm up special is on FNSMidwest right now for anyone interested
Hayes is interview Carp right now, i’m not sure if i’m digging Carp’s new facial hair. Apple Sauce will probably think he’s coping him.
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
that thing is hideous
but I think he should keep it, just to see if it helps his arm. I am the superstitious kind.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
we have got a winter warm-up not so live thread going on here
I think that is a sign the season needs to get here.
And why the hell couldn’t Welley get anyone to take his autograph?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
at least Welley is paying for a Dunc autograph
gotta love the Colonel
do I need an intervention?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
there's a back story to that matty
the cat talked him into that. the tadallion is always up for doing stuff like that. the “ben stover” interview was a classic moment from last season.
here’s the audio about the back story
that dude is awesome
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
FYI, there's a lot of other stuff after the back story
so if you don’t want to hear about an stl beauty contest & other local crap radio, stop listening after they are done talking about the back story
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
good listening
I am not good at segues, so I will just go ahead and switch topics. Who is the guy behind the GG in this picture?
One day I am gonna master the picture posting, but this is not that day.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
right behind Pujols?
i’m pretty sure that’s John Rooney, the Cards lead radio announcer
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
oh crap, i read that wrong,
Yadda’s lost a lot more weight than i thought. wow, good for him.
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
next thing you know
Molina is going to lead the league in infield hits
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Ha!
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Jan 21, 2009 7:53 AM EST up reply actions
Could he be holding that GG in a more awkward place?
I couldn’t make that picture more subtly inappropriate if I tried.
And for that reason alone,
Yadi probably won’t let Baby Dunc’ anywhere near his Gold Glove!
by cardsgirl95 on Jan 21, 2009 9:27 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
just wait until duncan wins one of his own
oh, the horror.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
no, it was all part of the joke he & the cat had going on
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
At first I thought
“I wonder if Rasmus wears #84 b/c thats the year he was born?”
Then I thought “No, he’s much younger than that.”
And then I thought “Holy crap I’m old.”
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
thanks for that
that is what I was thinking.
Man, I feel ancient.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
You know you're old
when there is no one on a major league roster as old as you. I passed that line about 6-7 years ago. That’s the point when you finally know “I will never play for the Cardinals….ever”.
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jan 21, 2009 12:54 AM EST up reply actions
The day I realized I was older than Josh Hancock
was the day my life started to go down hill.
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
Colby is the same age
as my son. Hell, the coaches are starting to look young to me.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
while i'm posting audio
Franklin talked today on 1380’s TMA saying Russ really, REALLY wants to play for the Cardinals. i just don’t get why the Cards wouldn’t want him back. especially if he’s willing to take a pay cut.
here’s the audio, skip ahead to the very end if you want to only here the couple minutes he talks about Russ.
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
i forgot insidestl posts those clips
i need to start checking those out more often. those guys blow away everyone else on st. louis sports radio.
"I'm as nauseous as I've ever been. I have a terrible headache. My head is pounding. I feel like throwing up and I'm having trouble swallowing. And the beauty of it is, you want to feel like this every day." - Tony LaRussa
But as foundations go he makes an excellent roof
I love that line. In general, I really like your writing style, DanUp. You make your points in unique ways, yet the points are still very clear. So kudos for that.
As far as rotation construction, I think there is something to be said for building from the bottom of the rotation. In theory, I easily get behind that approach. However, there’s an implied benefit of being able to keep the years short. In practice, we gave Kyle Lohse 4 years coming off his best season. And that I can’t really understand. If you are going to take the risk that come with a 4 year deal, then I think you need to get the upside of potential years of top of the rotation production.
Regarding LaRussa’s response to Ludwick’s comment, I think that’s just manager speak. Maybe even a bit of superstition – don’t dare mention such lofty goals.
I think Tony was just trying to be a smartass
Is that the same as manager speak? If so, I approve, because I try to be a smartass most of the time.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
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