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For those of you upset with Mo

Just remember that Rolen wasn't traded for Glaus until January 14. (I think that worked out very well.)

http://www.thestar.com/Sports/article/293647

And Lohse wasn't signed until March. (I also believe that deal worked out well.)

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/rumors/post/Cardinals-Lohse-agree-to-one-year-deal?urn=mlb,71712

Just because you have money to spend doesn't  mean you run out and spend it on the first shiny new toy you can find. Sometimes it's smarter to save to invest in wiser purchases after much contemplation. Slow and steady wins the race my friends!

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It's his refusal to take risks

Like signing Johnson or Sheets or Smoltz that pisses people off. His off season so far has been very good. We got an above average SS and a solid LOOGY. We didn’t blow our money on Fuentes and our bullpen got better interninally. We could have a great offseason if we sign an ace starter, or traded for one.

by vivaelpujols on Jan 2, 2009 2:44 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Here's the thing about Mo

There are always rumors popping up that he’s about to do something that’s a really bad idea (see Fuentes, Matt Holliday) but he usually doesn’t end up actually doing it. I can’t decide if it’s genius on his part (placating Tony without actually doing anything stupid) or if he has just gotten lucky that these deals haven’t quite gotten done.

by mikedallas45 on Jan 2, 2009 3:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

or another scenario..

We looked into a player and found out the asking price, P-D decides to ramp it up as something we’re considering.

Usually it’s Mo getting a hard time because he doesn’t check in on a trade that happened for a certain player, we can’t give him a hard time with the inverse.

One could make the case that Fuentes at the price we stopped at (and wouldn’t go further on) was reasonable. It wasn’t close to 3/30. But we stood firm, he went to LA. I don’t see luck being in on that one in particular.

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Jan 2, 2009 7:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

this is a very good point

or at least a funny one

www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D

by jealousblues on Jan 3, 2009 2:35 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i agree

this team is so afraid of taking any risks at all.

they just dont get better, they find value and take smart gambles (with no risk), but they never really increase the talent on the team.
They are too afraid of taking a chance on any impact player.
The hedge, they lowball and they dumpster dive.

each deal looks like a good deal, they player is a “good gamble” or is a “good value” and they usually exceed their contracts or expectations…but none of them really help the team that much.
None of them put us in the post season, none of them help us beat the Cubs.

they will spend all kinds of money on 4-5 rehab/crap/long shot guys when they could have signed 1 decent player

I mean after Carp and Mulder I dont blame them for being a little gunshy but at some point you have to take a chance or you ust end up paying middle range money for mediocre talent and being a mediocre team.

www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D

by jealousblues on Jan 3, 2009 2:28 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

qwerty

I know this doesnt make a lot of sense but its like they cant see the forrest for the trees.

individually each player they bring in looks OK, they look logical and they look smart.
they are all good “deals”

but they never really bring in the extra talent to push the team over the top.

they bring a bunch of marginal gain guys that make us competitive but not a division winner/playoff team.

they are afraid to take any risk to put us over the top. Its a safe strategy. We arnt ever going to make a huge mistake and be handcuffed, but we arnt ever going to be a great team either.

and this coming from a guy who doenst expect us to sign a CC or a Manny, but when the best we can hope for is Wolf or Garland or Fuentes (pre him signing) there is something majorly wrong and that team isnt going to be a real contender.

now VEB community is way smarter than me and can maybe help me out, but whats the difference b/t having Wolf/Garland type over Looper from last year, how much of an upgrade would that be and where would that put us with the Cubs recordwise?

disclaimer: If Carpenter is actually healthy for a change all bets are off, and ill shut my whining mouth

www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D

by jealousblues on Jan 3, 2009 2:33 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

In Midseason of 2008 the Cards were roughly equal to the Cubs and Brewers and then...

The Brewers traded for C.C. and the Cubs got Harden. The Cardinals did not answer back and acquire a reliever. That is all the past, but even a LOOGY like Will Ohman, I think, would have made a world of difference. Despite what others may think, I feel that even a middling reliever who could of filled a fireman role would have been the difference that resulted in a postseason berth. Instead, FO handed 2008 to CHC/MIL.

I point to two trades made this offseason: The Putz deal and the DeRosa deal.

The Mets acquired Putz for their spare/unwanted parts. They gave up the guys who didn’t fit into thier plans/the guys who were being run out of town; Aaron Heilman, Endy Chavez, Joe Smith, Jason Vargas and a couple others of no import. They didn’t lose Fernando Martinez or any core or future-core player.

I just ask? WHERE WERE THE CARDINALS ON THIS? Why couldn’t the cardinals have matched with (analogous players) Ryan Franklin, Skip Schumaker, KMAC, and Mitchell Boggs, and a couple AA chips. Honestly, seeing how easy the Mets got Putz and the Indians got DeRosa from the Cubs, I just wonder where we have been.

And I would have loved to see the Cards beat the Mets offer they made for K-ROD, even if the Mets would have responded with a better offer, at least they could have made a decent effort.

by Czechguardsman on Jan 3, 2009 7:12 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That was also a three team deal, and that third team had specific players wanted. It’s not exactly easy to break up a three team deal and doing it midnegotiations would alienate not one but two teams.

I’ll also concur with Flim, Motte for rest of the year Ohman would have been absurd.

and we weren’t the same as the cubs and the brewers either aside from the standings, we were living on borrowed time as overachievers.

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Jan 4, 2009 1:46 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

a good formula

for getting a “B”, but not an “A”

"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension

by sportsman on Jan 3, 2009 12:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Mo

I think it is clear he is working on a pretty tight budget this off-season. I sure hope he has another move up his sleeve, but I am also grateful for all the non-moves. Also working on a budget gives a lot less room for error. The lower the payroll, the more negative impact for a poor contract.

by Beware the Molinas on Jan 2, 2009 3:24 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

him working on a tight payroll

is kind of ridiculous since this was supposed to be the year a lot of money came off the books and we were finally supposed to spend. Im kind of surprised I actually believed it.

www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D

by jealousblues on Jan 3, 2009 2:36 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

"Tight payroll" and "tight payroll"

Last year, the Cards’ payroll ranked eighth highest in MLB.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Jan 3, 2009 7:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

not to mention

that we’re going to see inflation over the next several years with the gov’t flooding so much money into our economy. Now’s the time to sign! While the dollar actually seems to be worth something!

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on Jan 3, 2009 10:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Once again, we'll be damn lucky if we see inflation

there is massive deflationary pressure on the economy. If deflation gets stopped, it will be a major accomplishment by the government.

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Jan 4, 2009 12:56 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I agree.

Dont get me wrong. I loved AM, I wanted to keep him. But MO has preached the “patience” since day one. Lohse and Glause turned out to be huge. Not to mentioned we got the better end of the Edmonds trade also. I feel between now and spring training. WE will add a pitcher and another named utility guy. Mo hasnt done anything to warrant people to be upset at all. well he did let Taguchi go, but thats only me.

Aaron Miles is worth it.

by dangpenguins on Jan 2, 2009 3:42 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Huh
But MO has preached the "patience" since day one.

What about this day?

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Jan 2, 2009 4:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That might not be as bad as people think

This is a low risk, low upside type move. With the economy the way it is, we could have gotten a better pitcher for the same deal, but in any other year this would have been a solid move.

by vivaelpujols on Jan 2, 2009 4:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Why do people think this is such a bad move?

You have 3 pitchers in the rotation that have battled injuries (WW, Carp, and Colonel) the past couple of seasons while Lohse throws 200 innings of league average baseball or better every single year. The contract is extremely friendly the first couple of seasons, doesn’t include a no-trade clause, and if he throws well would be a good contract to trade away after 2010 if guys like Jess Todd, Mitchell Boggs, Lance Lynn, or Clayton Mortenson can prove they belong in the big leagues by that time.

A league average starter is probably worth around $8.5M on the market, so if Lohse can be just slightly better than that over the first three years of the deal than the signing is a win for the Cardinals.

I didn’t agree with it at the time because I really thought the team would go after one free agent starter this offseason. I think the Lohse signing neither helps nor hurts the team from going after another FA starter like Sheets or Lowe.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jan 2, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think it's a bad deal

But there is a full no-trade clause in it.

"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin

by That's a Winner on Jan 2, 2009 5:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It's not that bad of a move....

it just definitely isn’t a good one. It’s somwhere between moderately bad and neutral ;)

As That’s a Winner said, there is a full no trade clause (see link to AP article in my above comment).

Lohse throws 200 innings of league average baseball or better every single year

Excluding 2001 (90 IP), he has thrown an average of 182 innings a year. For his career, a league average ERA has been 4.52. His career ERA is actually slightly above that at 4.67. That’s an ERA+ of 97.

A league average starter is probably worth around $8.5M on the market

Lohse will be paid, on average, $10.25M a year. Last year one WAR was worth $4.5M, per Fangraphs. Last season, in his best season in terms of WAR since 03, Lohse was a 1.5 WAR player. That’s worth $6.75M. This means that we will be likely be paying well over his value for most of the deal.

So what was the other option? Say we could sign Lowe for 3 years, $42 million ($6M more than the Mets’ offer). That’s $3.75M per season more than we will pay Lohse. Lowe’s career ERA+ is 122, and in the last three years they have been 124, 118, including 131 last year. He has been at least a 2.9 WAR player in each of the last 6 seasons (5.9 last year). He has also averaged over 200 IP in each of the last seven seasons. He would not only be more durable than Lohse, but also a much better pitcher. True, he’s 35, but he has shown no signs of decline thus far.

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Jan 2, 2009 6:42 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Remember what Lowe was looking to get as the season closed? Wasn’t even close to 3/42, not even close.

Lohse may have been a sure sign that along with half of the country, the Cardinal FO didn’t get the economic environment they were walking into, but it’s clear that they’ve changed that tune quite a bit since.

Lohse may cost money in WAR over the life of his contract, but at the time it was reasonable considering options. Add in the fact that we’re in the offseason looking for one SP instead of two, got someone who is durable, and someone who righted a ship in StL

I don’t care for the no trade and I think you could have gotten him on a 3 year deal himself as of now, but it’s not a horrid contract when you put it on context.

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Jan 2, 2009 7:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Amen

Hindsight is always 20/20, so picking on the contract now because of the lack of free agent signings by pitchers is just ridiculous to me.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jan 4, 2009 4:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

At what point do we consider it hindsight?

MGL (known Cardinal consultant, creator of UZR) posted this on 9/29/2008:

I have him projected an 1.5 WAR next year, 1.2 after that, then .9, and then .6. That comes out to a fair contract of about 4/22. 4/41 is ugly.

Source: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/sabermetric_moves_of_the_2009_pre_season/#3

by astrostl on Jan 4, 2009 5:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I haven’t been and I don’t think fourstick is saying that Lohse was a great signing (though on his projections, at least you can say they’re not going to be a _huge hurdle to top).

It’s just the fact that when we approach the offseason there was a different mentality than what there is now. Using Lowe’s current offer from the Mets isn’t fair and that’s where the hindsight is 20/20

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Jan 4, 2009 5:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not picking on it

because of the lack of other signings, it’s just a point of reference. I’m simply comparing what we did versus where the market would have been (is) if we had waited. I never thought signing him to a 4 year deal with a no trade clause was smart, especially since it was done on September 29. Patience, as the front office is currently advocating, also works at the beginning of the offseason, not just the end. That would have likely saved money and probably knocked a year off of the contract (just guessing, obviously). It’s not like I waited to point out how I don’t like the deal until (knock on wood) Lohse bombs, tears his rotator cuff, etc.

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Jan 4, 2009 6:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i suppose people think its a bad deal because...

Loshe had a career year last year and people are skeptical of that.
Many will assume he will revert somewhat…

on a second point, Loshe was great last year because he was cheap, now he isnt such a bargain and that takes money away from a more talented player we could bring on.

i dont mind the deal personally

www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D

by jealousblues on Jan 3, 2009 2:39 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

My only complaint is that

if the money we spent on Lohse means that we can’t get a top-flight starter, then it was a huge mistake.

Lohse + middling scrap heaper that we can sign for $5M-$7M << Sheets + Looper

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Jan 3, 2009 11:24 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

not necessarily

Doesn’t Looper want the same $ as Lohse?

by stlfan on Jan 3, 2009 11:36 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah but he's not going to get it.

You could see Looper settling for a 2 year deal if the market dictates.

Hell, at least offer arbitration to Looper. With how the SP market looks next offseason, he could very, very easily have accepted, which means the Cards got him on a 1 year deal. Which is a huge win for STL.

"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."

by Blicks on Jan 3, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

They could always have just offered him aribitration

and just let the arbiter throw whatever one year deal at him. Maybe he would have rejected. But it would have at least been worht a shot.

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Jan 3, 2009 12:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Bargains and then the inevitable rewarding

Disclaimer: Bear with me…this got long.

I really follow the Cardinals closely, then the Royals (since I live in KC, MO.) Other than that, at best I follow teams when they play the Cardinals. I follow individual players sometimes, as well. That being said, I don’t know if every teammakes deals like this or if it is just the Cardinals that do it. It seems like our General Managers do a great job of finding low risk, high reward type players. The Cardinals then seem to give out a huge contract to those players…and I really can’t tell if it is rewarding them for believing in the team and coming when nobody else would. There are some instances where the low risk, high reward portion of the above statement works out very well:

Signing Chris Carpenter to a 1-year, $0.5 million contract with a $2 million option for the 2005 season was a great signing by then-GM Walt Jocketty. Carpenter and the Cardinals then went to work on a 2-year deal with an option on a third year. It was a good extension by the Cardinals. Carpenter was a slightly higher risk (because of his injury history and the higher dollar amount) but high reward type of guy at this point. (The deal was for 2 years at $13 million with the third year option at $8 million.)

Signing Kyle Lohse to a 1-year, $4.5 million contract in 2008 by new-GM John Mozeliak was a lowish-risk, high-reward type of move for the Cardinals. The contract was not super low like it was for Carpenter in 2004, but Carpenter had been injured and hadn’t pitched many innings in a while. Lohse has a lot lower ceiling, however, than Carpenter. Lohse’s deal turned out as beautifully as Carpenter’s 1st two deals turned out for the Cardinals.

Adam Wainwright did not come via free agency as those two previously mentioned pitchers did. He came via a trade in which it was believed at the time that Waino would become the centerpiece of the deal (for the Cardinals.) He came (along with 2 major leaguers) at the low price of a possible STUD right fielder that was probably leaving at the end of the season anyway. He was earning minor league money at the time.

The crux of my argument, however, lies ahead (well, ahead of the times I have been rehashing). As I stated in the first paragraph, I believe that the Cardinals reward starting pitchers too well for their efforts in St. Louis. (Before the Lohse signing, I would have argued that they reward injury-prone, top-of-the-line starters too well.)

Carpenter and the Cardinals worked out a deal in the ’06 offseason, after the FIRST year of the 2 year (+ an option) deal he signed the previous winter. Instead of having the deal that guaranteed $6.5 million a season, he upped his monetary status to 5 years, $63.5 million (+ an option for a 6th year.) The Cardinals really had no reason to do this whatsoever, or no reason that they HAD to do it, in any case. Carpenter has thrown 21.3 innings since that deal was made.

Wainwright signed a very reasonable 4-year, $15 million contract with the Cardinals in March of last season, before the year began. He also went on to get injured and miss much of this year, pitching less than 140 innings. Waino would have been eligible for arbitration for (I believe) 2 or 3 more seasons before needing to shell out any big money to him.

Kyle Lohse, while a very good starter last year and very reasonably priced as such, was given a 4-year, $41 million extension while the season was still going on (or shortly thereafter, before the end of September). In each year of the new deal, he will make more money than any two-year stretch of his career, combined. In only 3 of his 8 years has he been above league average (in terms of ERA+). I’m sure that some real stat-heads could tell me other more meaningful statistics that show he is worse than what I am inferring here.

Do other teams do this? Why do we do this? Do we think that this is the ONLY way to get pitchers to come and stay with the team? Did we not realize the market value? What’s going on exactly?

by stlfan on Jan 3, 2009 12:28 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

And?

He has done an okay job this offseason so far. The problem is that his strategy is erratic. Lately it has been “let’s be patient,” but at first it was “lets sign a 30 year old guy with a career ERA+ of 97 to a 4/$41 deal with a no trade clause.” This contract looks worse by the day, especially when the Mets’ offer to Lowe is reportedly 3/$36.

You can’t sign Lohse to that contract as soon as the season ends and then preach patience to the fanbase. That said, I’m happy with the recent non-moves (Miles, Fuentes).

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Jan 2, 2009 3:56 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

hey

if signing Lohse means not signing Fuentes and Miles, that’s pretty good imo. he’ll be durable, and he gave us a chance last season; might as well reward him

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 2, 2009 5:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

he should have waited till the market crashed & saved the Cards some mad coin

if he wanted Lohse back. i don’t mind having him back, i just mind how much they are paying him

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Jan 2, 2009 9:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He had no idea that the market was gonna crash

He wanted to extend Lohse before we got into a bidding war with another team. In hindsight it looks bad, but it was a solid deal when it happened.

by vivaelpujols on Jan 2, 2009 10:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Saying he had no idea

On September 29 is just not true. You can read about everything that happened relating to the coming collapse here

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Jan 3, 2009 10:36 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

to be fair MO had no idea what WCBW was saying,

he was just mesmerized by it all & the end result was 4 more years of Lohse

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Jan 3, 2009 7:01 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

HAHA

Rec’d

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Jan 3, 2009 7:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

could he really have?

Is this deal really that much different. And are Lowe and Lohse really that much different. The fourth year is tough, but I personally don’t think it was a terrible sign. The problem is if he makes that deal and doesn’t go after Sheets or someone similar (high upside/high to moderate risk) to augment the rest of the rotation.

by rlgosnell on Jan 3, 2009 1:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Is this deal really that much different.

An additional contract year is huge IMO when it comes to pitchers.

That isn’t a deal, just an alleged offer, but Lohse’s contract also has a full no-trade.

And are Lowe and Lohse really that much different.

Yes!

by astrostl on Jan 3, 2009 2:06 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lohse is in his prime

And with Duncan helping him out he should continue to pitch well throughout his contract. Lowe on the other hand is 36 and will start to decline pretty soon. Plus his numbers with the Dodgers were inflated by the fact that he played his home games in a pitchers park and he played in the NL west routinely facing the Padres and Giants.

by vivaelpujols on Jan 3, 2009 2:20 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

We don't know if Lohse

is in his prime OR he just had one solid season. Just like Ludwick he could regress. His career numbers show no signs of him being consistent. He is projected to be worse, and Duncan may only be here to help him for one more season.

Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...

by RunninRedbird on Jan 3, 2009 9:21 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lowe is 35

I already made this argument above but I’ll here it is again:

Busch Stadium is also a pitcher’s park, albeit less of one. However, the Cards defense ranked 5th in errors last year while the Dodgers ranked 19th. Any park differences will be made up with defense.

Lowe has not lost and velocity on his fastball. In fact, is has been at 89.2 the past 2 years while it 88.4 in 2005. His stikeout and walk rates have remained fairly consistent over the past few years. He has also thrown over 200 innings a year for the past 7 years. If you didn’t know he was 35, you wouldn’t say “here’s a pitcher about to decline.” Here are some side by side comparisons:

                   06 FIP 07 FIP 08 FIP Career ERA+ 07 TRA+ 08 TRA+
Lohse——4.34——4.53——3.89——-97——97/80——95
Lowe——-3.68——3.97——3.26——-122——118——132

Lohse, on the other hand, is not a consistent 200 innings guy. He is durable, averaging roughly 180 innings a year for his career, but he is no Lowe in terms of durability. Lohse had a good season last year, but he won’t repeat it. The last 11 games he pitched he allowed an .825 OPS for a 4.66 ERA. It’s really not even close when you compare Lowe and Lohse.

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Jan 3, 2009 11:09 AM EST up reply actions   2 recs

Just being optimistic

I believe that a pitcher can change, Darryl Kile for example, and pitch better than his career norms. In his first year in Saint Louis, Lohse was good, He also showed stretches of being very good throughout the season. Obviously Lowe has been a much better pitcher in his career than Lohse, but Lohse showed signs of improvement.

by vivaelpujols on Jan 3, 2009 3:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Do you remember what the offseason looked like at season’s end? Teams were erratic, we were in several ‘potential deals’, pitchers were going to get massive money (remember KRod’s asking price?)

Then Selig spoke and everything changed. Everything.

Let’s not castrate Mo for comments made in the past if he chooses to change them.

I don’t know about you, but I would have been pissed off should Mo continue to stay aggressive this offseason while 90% of the other teams aren’t doing a thing.

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Jan 2, 2009 7:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, I do

I’m a business major and everyone in the business school knew that the economy was slipping well before the contract was signed. The FO wasn’t oblivious to the coming economic crisis and if they were I’m surprised and disappointed.

On the issue of the expected contracts of several players…. When there are many high profile players to be signed, they won’t be paid as much. It’s supply and demand. There are/were lots of available free agents this winter, so teams have much more to choose from. The contract rumors in September are not a smart way to gauge what will actually happen. That’s why signing someone who isn’t a star to a long term deal in September is never a smart move.

I would have been pissed if he stayed aggressive, that would have been stupid. The only poor decision that he has made this winter was to sign Lohse so early. Had he waited a month or two, we would have saved millions. I am by no means “castrating” him, just pointing out a flaw in his approach. He has done a fine job so far. I just think people are either overly supportive of him or much to quick to turn against him. I sit somewhere in the middle, much closer to the “support him” side.

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Jan 2, 2009 8:47 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Lohse was signed Sept 30, 2008

 which means that negotiations had been underway for several weeks in advance. Lehman Brothers went belly up on sept 15 and, in fact, Q3 earnings reports were excellent for most companies. While a few people on the front end of the economy knew something really bad was about to happen its hard to blame the Cardinals for not being prescient as of that date.

I argued and have argued that they would regret jumping so fast on Lohse but if you look at the deal as 5 years at $46 million, its not so bad.

Frankly, the reason they jumped was that the free agent pitchers were pretty crappy. Either out of their class (Sabathia), old (Lowe) or broken (Sheets). Looked at it that way, it’s not a horrible signing.

Just win

by The Duke on Jan 2, 2009 9:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You can't look at it

Like 5/$46, that’s just not smart business. It’s 4/$41 and there’s no ignoring that.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac got taken over on September 7th. As you said, the Lehman Brothers announced that they were filing for bankruptcy on September 14th. Stocks really began to drop significanly in mid September. Point is, the signs were there, and even though they may not have known the magnitude of the crisis, they should have realized it wouldn’t be smart to sign a long deal so soon. Waiting a few weeks would have saved a lot of money.

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Jan 3, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It may have, but it’s safe to assume that the ‘immune’ thought process carried well into postseason. Then baseball related signals got Selig to start talking.

My original reply wasn’t to say that the signs weren’t there, but that MLB teams weren’t really acting like they were there. I’m just glad it was our only signing.

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Jan 4, 2009 1:04 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

well I knew it as well, but that wasn’t what I meant by it. GM, Media and Agents were all playing the baseball is immune until Selig started talking, and aggressive looked to be a solid position, but it’s a blessing that the position has changed.

I don’t agree with the supply and demand as we both know that there’s various points of quality within that supply so the supply you’re speaking is a lot smaller than what it would first appear.

And I apologize for lumping you into the ‘castrate’ mold, I didn’t mean it that way. Just saying that it was a calculated risk and now we’re not fighting another team for at least 2 SP, we have a durable one, even if it cost us a little more.

I’ve been on record for not caring too much about the Lohse years/no trade/money combo, but I can see why. I can also see ways to add more talent given the current budget.

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Jan 4, 2009 1:01 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough

I just fear that this contract will come back and bite us in a year or two. It’s not that big of a deal, but it’s certainly not outstanding either.

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Jan 4, 2009 11:38 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

and it may, I’m not saying it won’t. In the past I’ve actually shared those exact concerns. I’m just making a case for why it was done in context.

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Jan 4, 2009 5:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Understand 100%

And all I’m trying to say is Mo should have started on his “patience” regimen back in September. ;)

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Jan 4, 2009 6:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

and the worst part of signing an "innings eater" as Loshe was described earlies

to that big contract is now MO is saying he isnt looking to sign a pitcher past 1 year, because we have enough long term pitching contracts.

this pretty much limits us to

1) guys comming of injuries/bad years trying to up their value

2) Old guys with not much career left

3) bad pitchers no one wants and cant get a multi year deal

4) who ever might actually be decent but somehow doesnt get a deal at the end of FA (this is taking a huge chance)

www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D

by jealousblues on Jan 3, 2009 2:43 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

There are a lot of guys like that who we should sign

Sheets, Smoltz and we should have signed Johnson. I don’t know why the management would rather fill our spot with another Looper type pitcher when we could have a guy like Sheets for only a couple million more.

by vivaelpujols on Jan 3, 2009 3:05 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No reason to be upset at Mo

since Mr. DeWitt is more than likely the one calling all the shots. Mo is only working with the budget that DeWitt has given him…and it looks like there is not a lot of money that is going in to filling some of the holes we have.

Not to go into a full on rant…..but I think Mr. DeWitt has decided to take the team in a different direction. I think he is going to try and go the route that the Royals/Twins/Pirates have taken for awhile now. Build from with-in and take your best shot at competing against the big market teams that has the luxury of spending money to fill their holes. Let’s just hope we have better results than those teams have.

We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.

by KYCards on Jan 2, 2009 5:35 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

You’ve been on this theme for a few days now. Anything to support this?

DeWitt has stated that he doesn’t want to cut salary because it’ll create a spiral (appearing cheap and doing nothing = less seats = less money = less to spend = less seats etc).

One reporter speculates that he may be cutting budget and we’re now at DeWitt is calling shots?

I’d contend there’s no way. Mo’ has shown in his tenure to be patient and calculated. This offseason continues to show that very same approach. Nothing thus far shows DeWitt doing anything to hurt his GM and the processes therein.

Making a commitment to go younger has been a theme for a bit now, and it was needed, sorely. But Kc, Minn, Pitts we’re not.

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Jan 2, 2009 7:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Good point.

I guess I am showing my frustrations way too much on here. And by the comments you and others have made about my posts I can see where you guys are coming from.

Maybe it’s just the off season blues or something but i have been way too grumpy and I think it would be best if I step away from all the off season stuff and come back when my head is in a better place and we actually can see some games being played.

I do have a lot of these opinions that I have posted on here…but I think my tone as been a little too harsh and probably too over the top for you guys and even for myself.
I will be back when I can add a little more than just the negative posts that have come from me as of late.

We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.

by KYCards on Jan 2, 2009 8:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I haven’t seen much of this apparent negative run of yours, but FWIW I think it’s very cool that you responded so favorably to criticism.

by astrostl on Jan 2, 2009 10:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

agreed

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Jan 4, 2009 12:54 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with astrostl for what it’s worth.

I wasn’t being over critical for what it’s worth. I’m built a little more logical than most I’m assuming, but I was wanting to know if it was emotions or something you’ve read.

Don’t take what I said as a reason to give you pause from posting, it wasn’t the intent. I’ve enjoyed your posts since I’ve been around.

For the record, I’ll be right there with you should we end up not spending anything else and going to ‘09 with holes yet to fill. I just can’t put what you typed previously together with what I’ve seen.

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Jan 4, 2009 12:53 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Off-Season Still in the Balance

There are still a lot of things that could happen that could make this a very good off-season. There are some very good starting pitchers still available and the Cards still have the potential to make a significant trade.

They could still sign Perez or Sheets and one of the free agent lefties. I think signing a starting pitcher and a lefty specialist makes more sense than signing a lefty closer.

Brian Roberts is still available and would really look good leading off. Would you trade Ankiel and Kennedy for Brian Roberts?

by Warcard on Jan 2, 2009 9:45 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

yes

too many outfielders out there and there is no way we will get much for any of our johnny come lately, older outfielders, whether they finished last season healthy or hurt until at least manny and dunn are gone.

"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension

by sportsman on Jan 2, 2009 11:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Any team we would try and trade Ankiel/Ludwick/Schumaker to would have to ask itself...

Do I want to give up some of my homegrown talent to acquire the STL outfielder, or is it easier just to make a run at Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell, Milton Bradley, Jim Edmonds… etc. There are a ton of OF options out there who will have to land somewhere, and I think smart GMs are sitting back and waiting for a bargain to develop.

Still, if the Os would take Ankiel and Kennedy for Roberts, make that deal in a heartbeat.

by Czechguardsman on Jan 3, 2009 1:19 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I doubt it

Their Outfield is set, they don’t need anymore. They mainly need some pitching and MIF depth(Sound familiar?)

by Taskmaster on Jan 3, 2009 1:37 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

They also need a first baseman

I’m thinking Pujols for Roberts, Markasis, Guthrie and Jones.

by vivaelpujols on Jan 3, 2009 1:56 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I can't tell if this is sarcasm or not

But I sure as hell hope it is…

Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...

by RunninRedbird on Jan 3, 2009 9:24 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hell...that's still not there...

…Ask for Weiters too.

"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.

by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 3, 2009 2:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

tbh i wish people would stop talking about the Loshe siging in spring training...

it was a boon to this team but it wasnt some genius master stroke.

Joel got hurt and we had to sign someone, it was complete luck that Loshe was still available and no one really wanted him. This deal was completely pulled out of MO’s ass, it doesnt happen often (I cant think of when something similars happened before, though im sure it has), and I sure as hell wouldnt count on deals like this in the future.

Loshe was a rare gift and we should consider ourselves lucky for that, not count on it.

www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D

by jealousblues on Jan 3, 2009 2:23 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

You couldn't have put this 3 line comment

in the hot stove fanpost? That’s what the hot stove fanpost is for. If there’s some new insight, let’s have a new fanpost. If not, put it in the hot stove fanpost.

We simply do not need a new fanpost every time someone has a 3 line comment to include.

by chuckb on Jan 3, 2009 10:53 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

The post has 51 comments, doesn’t that speak to its specific interest? I’d personally rather drop by and select the conversation in which I wish to participate rather than sorting through a generic topic megathread.

by astrostl on Jan 3, 2009 11:29 AM EST up reply actions   3 recs

+1000

Although I would like to see a little more thought out analysis in the actual post, rather than 2 sentences and two links.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jan 4, 2009 4:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe we need a separate hot stove fanpost section

I think the reason to limit the quick’n’dirty fanposts is so that ones with research and insight don’t age off the list before they can get read. I agree with that sentiment, but I do get tired of the megathreads as well. If we had a separate section for hot stove you could jump in the conversation that interests you and the more time intensive fanposts would still get the respect they deserve.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Jan 4, 2009 9:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Furthermore,

I don’t see a lot of talk that’s specifically debating on what players can/should be traded for who or who should be signed… seems a good catch all thread to toss over about Mo and his patience/work tactics… I’ve read so many posts and ideas that Mo’s doing a terrible job and wanted to give people a reason to calm down and realize it’s still January 1st and there’s a lot of good players on the market… This isn’t new insight in regards to numbers, but it is a new insight compared to all the consistent complaining I’ve been reading around here… Before the Cards started play last year they were considered dead in the central and surprised everyone. We’re no worse than we were at last season’s starting point (if not better) yes there ARE holes to fill, but at least we now know exactly what those holes are now. The youngsters have had time to get their feet wet, who knows they may actually swim now. All I’m saying is that patience is needed… We’re not rebuilding, as was the consensus a year ago… we do have a shot at the playoffs with the correct additions…

by redbirddude on Jan 3, 2009 12:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I have no problem whatsoever

w/ some sort of discussion about Mo’s pros and cons as a GM. However, your comment, which can be boiled down to “Mo doesn’t suck” provides little to help the conversation along. We should expect more from fanposts than “Mo doesn’t suck!” You could have put together some sort of list of his good moves and bad moves — done some sort of research to help justify your argument. You have 2 links to newspaper articles and a brief word about Mo. You mention other players still on the market — you could have included a list of those players in your fanpost. There’s just little substantive here — 51 comments or not.

by chuckb on Jan 4, 2009 11:51 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I understand your perspective, and agree that it’s not a good leading fanpost.

I think you have to let go once something takes, though. It’s over 100 comments as of your posting.

by astrostl on Jan 4, 2009 12:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think this

post is borderline. Not the kind of post you really need to crack the whip over.

by spants on Jan 4, 2009 3:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

if I was cracking the whip

I’d have closed it to comments or deleted it two days ago.

by chuckb on Jan 4, 2009 10:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

No need to get on to chuckb for doing his job

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Jan 4, 2009 10:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No getting on him in particular here, I’m sure he’s doing what he thinks is best.

I think the criticisms of the OP were valid, but I still disagree that it should have been posted in the megathread instead. Primariily I don’t think that, if the OP were posted as a comment in the hot stove catch-all, it would have generated this much additional content. And content is what makes this world go ’round.

More ideally I think SB Nation would have some kind of private messaging system where an official could say, “hey it worked this time, but please put a little more into your fanposts in the future.” That’s a platform issue though. I’ve lamented a lack of PMs (unless I’m missing it somewhere) more than once.

by astrostl on Jan 4, 2009 11:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

This is true

But a fanpost is supposed to have more qualities than just “generates discussion.” Someone could do a three word post that said, “I hate Mo,” and people would discuss it. I don’t think this thread should be deleted, but it shouldn’t have gone up without a decent original post in the first place.

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Jan 5, 2009 11:33 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The issues, as I see them.

The Cardinals were an 86 win team last year with the mid-range priced, mediocre talent that some are decrying. Yes, they over-achieved; but that is what they accomplished. Honestly, they still had a chance to be a 90 win team as late as the trading deadline. Then, injuries and over-exposure started to catch up to the team, and they just couldn’t continue it. They also probably lost a little hitch in their giddy-up when the Cubs and Brewers made such significant additions at the trade deadline, and then the Carpenter “addition” yielded to yet another setback. Frankly, the Cards competetiveness last year was beyond my wildest imagination.

Mr. DeWitt has made no apologies for the fact that he wants to build this team primarily from within the organization. They are finally starting to devote serious resources to scouting in Latin America and Asia (something that was unbelievably left out of their organizational direction until now). Their drafting inadequacies are well understood by everyone here, and that is not the type of thing that is turned around quickly. While the pipeline is starting to fill up now, we are still waiting to see what the likes of Rasmus, Perez, Motte, McClellan, and Wallace are going to consistently provide at the major league level. Otherwise, the system has been producing primarily AAAA players (Joe Mather, Skip Schumaker, Mitchell Boggs, et al) that have more value to the Cards than to any other team.

Since the Cards have started this organizational shift (or, more likely, the reason they started this shift), the FA market has gotten absurd. No. 4 starters now make the same money as Albert Pujols. Hell, a pitcher like Fuentes was looking to make more money than Pujols. Teams like the Angels, Yankees, Cubs, and Mets are trying to buy all other teams out of competition; and to some extent they are succeeding. Despite the ever-mentioned 3.2 million fans that the Cards draw, too much of their revenue is generated from that source to be able to compete with the top 3 TV markets in the country from a spending perspective.

The Cards have had a fair amount of payroll come off of the books this year, so they should have had some payroll to spend this offseason. Then, the economy took a dump, Carpenter’s condition has handcuffed the team, the Pineiro signing has turned out to be awful, and the team’s greatest strength from which to deal is a glut of middle-of-the-road OFs in a market that is flooded with more proven options in the OF. Mozeliak doesn’t want to block prospects like Rasmus, Motte, and Perez; so he can’t justify paying a Fuentes for 3 years at closer’s money. They have Lohse, Wainwright, and Carpenter tied up to significant money in the starting rotation; and they have no prospects to fill in the end of the rotation. They have no prospects to fill the LOOGY spot since Garcia got hurt and Johnson flamed out, and Perez and Motte could have used at least one year as understudies to become ready for the closer’s position.

So, what’s the good news? Other than the closer’s role, there are still pretty good options for the Cards to fill out the starting rotation and the LOOGY role. After filling the giant hole that was at SS, and supplying one LOOGY already, that should put the Cards at nearly the same competition level as last year. The Cubs have probably gotten better, but I think Mozeliak has to be judged on how he decides to fill these three holes that remain on this team.

by etp_stl on Jan 3, 2009 10:57 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

I think that calling

Mather, Skip, and Boggs AAAA players is pushing it. Here’s a fanpost on Mather. Schumaker was a 2.5 WAR player last year. Boggs wasn’t so great, but he did lead the PCL in ERA and has time to improve on his ML showing.

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Jan 3, 2009 11:26 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed on the AAAA players part

AAAA players are those types that can really succeed in AAA, but can’t quite get over the hump and have any type of success in the majors. I think Skip has pretty much proven he has the talent to be a ML player. You don’t have to be a star to be a legitimate major league baseball player.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Jan 3, 2009 11:39 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Point taken.

I guess I used the wrong term. I meant more a role player. It did take Schumaker until nearly 30 to stick, though. I’m not trying to bash the guys I mentioned, but if the system provides only platoon players and swingmen then it isn’t quite where it needs to be yet.

I could definitely be wrong on Mather. He definitely has the potential to be a solid, complementary player. I don’t see Boggs really providing anything. His stuff seemed extremely boring, and he seemed to lack control. Again, I hope I’m wrong.

I’m sorry if it sounded like I was disparaging the players mentioned. I did say that these players have value to the Cards. I just don’t think you are going to trade those players for a front-line starter or a nails closer.

by etp_stl on Jan 3, 2009 11:51 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Are you calling Pujols, Molina and Wainwright role players?

JD Drew became a damn fine major leaguer, despite how much he gets complained about. The organization might not have been ranked hightly in the prospect lists over the last ten years, but if you looked at the actual production of the minor league system retrospectively, I’d say we hung in there over the past ten years—we didn’t produce many major leaguers that stuck, but the ones we did produce turned out to be really damn valuable.

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Jan 3, 2009 12:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I did say "primarily" ...

Molina and Pujols were obviously exceptional additions to the team. Wainwright wasn’t “produced” by the Cards’ system in the strict sense of the term. The Cards’ system “produced” Brad Thompson, Anthony Reyes, and Tyler Johnson. J.D. gets the Todd Zeile treatment, mercenary that never quite lives up to the expectations. I appreciate the fact that he provided Adam Wainwright.

The fact that the system “didn’t produce many major leaguers that stuck” was the point that I was making. There have been a few over the last decade that have been valuable pieces. I believe the goal of Mr. DeWitt’s approach is to provide enough depth of starting talent from the system that good prospects can be traded for quality talent because they are being both blocked and pushed within the system. This will provide low-cost alternatives; and, despite the grousing, Mr. DeWitt has shown the committment to players that have worked out (i.e. Wainwright, Pujols, Molina, etc.).

I look forward to seeing the fruits of this approach ripen. As was pointed out, I was wrong in grouping Mather in when I should have mentioned more John Gall or Kerry Robinson. The log-jams at 3B, OF, and middle relief are starting to show what the system can be. Now, hopefully they can add middle infielder and starting pitchers to that wealth.

by etp_stl on Jan 3, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

All I"m really saying is that there are teams that would have loved

to have traded their minor league production over the past ten years for ours. I’d much rather have lowly ranked prospects that pan out than have a bunch of highly touted guys like the Cubs did when they were considered a spectacular farm system, and then have those guys never quite turn out.

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Jan 3, 2009 1:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I can agree with the production.

That was fine when a team didn’t have to be so dependent upon consistent production from the farm. Unfortunately, the economic condition in baseball has changed; and, IMO, it is essential that a team be able to fill holes at least adequately, if not spectacularly, from within the organization.

If the last two years have taught us anything, then we should have seen that the trade and FA markets can’t be relied on to provide what is needed. I don’t believe it’s that Mozeliak and DeWitt have decided not to improve the team the last two years, but more that the team’s assets have not been a good match with the needs of the teams that have had the assets the Cards coveted. It is like the Peavy deal this year. You can have all of the desire to make a deal, but if you have nothing the other team wants or needs you will never be able to make the deal. The FA market has been too unpredictable, and all teams are required to wait until the New York teams get done picking the gems out of the rubble.

by etp_stl on Jan 3, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

he does, and a nice slurve. Lackluster changeup, his biggest issue.

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Jan 4, 2009 1:18 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Precisely

Boggs hasn’t shown anything at the MLB level that will get LH batters out. They OPS over 1.000 against him. I don’t know if this was a problem in AAA as his minor league splits page seems to be broken.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Jan 4, 2009 9:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Way to pidgeonhole Boggs

Boggs has had all of 34 IP in MLB. Saying he’s an AAAA player because of bad results in such a small sample size is just short-sighted. The guy’s still got the upside to become a #4-5 level starter.

"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."

by Blicks on Jan 3, 2009 11:47 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Perhaps.

I wasn’t impressed with either his pitches or his control. I could be wrong, or he could turn out to be Bud Smith, Manny Aybar, etc. Regardless, he doesn’t excite me as an answer for this year. I would be extremely disappointed if he was anything more than an emergency fill-in to the rotation this year.

by etp_stl on Jan 3, 2009 11:56 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh I agree.

He should go into the season in a 6th starter, but every rotation has some injury attrition. It’s just too early to call him an AAAA player.

"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."

by Blicks on Jan 3, 2009 12:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I have to disagree

I would be very excited if Boggs ended up being able to fill a hole in the rotation. I would think that would mean that he was actually capable of it. I think we all can agree that Duncan isn’t going to allow a rookie to suffer in the rotation for the entire season if he isn’t anywhere near successful.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Jan 3, 2009 12:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think Boggs has more upside than you guys think

He struggled most of the time throughout the bigs, but he has consistantly put up good ERA’s in the minor leagues. I watched him pitch in the majors, he seems to have pretty good stuff and average command. Hopefully his command gets better and thus he gets better.

by vivaelpujols on Jan 3, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think we'll sign another starter this offseason

which doesn’t make Boggs chances very good for being a starter next season. maybe he’ll be like wainwright and come in and close at the end of the season. who knows

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 3, 2009 5:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I doubt he starts either

I was trying to state that I would be excited if he was more than an emergency starter, because for him to be more than that would mean he was pitching pretty darn good, or at least close to league average.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Jan 3, 2009 6:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That's possible.

His competition right now seems to be Thompson and Pineiro for the 5th starter position. Maybe McClellan works his way into the mix, but right now that would probably hurt the bullpen.

If he wins the job outright, then that’s great. I don’t know if I can agree that that means he is definitely pitching at least close to league average unless you are including Thompson and Pineiro as league average pitchers.

If Mozeliak doesn’t provide any additional competition for the job and Carpenter isn’t ready to go, then how can you say he would have to be league average to be the 5th starter? I’m not being a smart-ass. I’m simply asking for clarification.

by etp_stl on Jan 3, 2009 6:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I just don't think they would keep him in the rotation all season if he were not

just my opinion. I think he would have to dazzle for Dunc/TLR to keep him in the rotation all season, what with being a rookie and all.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Jan 3, 2009 6:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Kmac (5th starter) + Boggs (relief) + Joel (longman/cleanup) is a much better combo over
Boggs (AAA) + Kmac (relief) + Joel (5th starter).

If we’re going to carry lefty specialists then Boggs isn’t as much of a concern in the ’pen (change up pending).

The main concern would be KMac’s durability as a starter for the year. Otherwise it’s a sound idea in my opinion.

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Jan 4, 2009 1:30 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Here’s Boggs in a nutshell :

Fastball – late whipping movement, excellent control, slurve that is quite nice and a changeup that sucks.

So his whole MLB experience was defined by what side of the plate the batter on. Lefties sat on the slurve and murdered it (as they should), he was great against righties.

If this kid gets a changeup, there’s nothing stopping him from being a #3-#4, but if he doesn’t he’s in relief.

That’s a nice swing of potential if he can get his changeup to league average, and his two “natural” pitches will carry him far.

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Jan 4, 2009 1:25 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

yep, I actually just plus one’d.

I'll be the one overrating these Faberge' eggs, thank you very much!
Future Redbirds

by erik on Jan 3, 2009 4:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I’ll continue to contend that Mather is much better than ‘AAAA’, give him the at bats and we’d see.

He’s older for a prospect I’ll agree, but he’s night and day compared to how he used to approach batting. If you seen him before the change in approach compared to now it’s night and day. It’s nearly as drastic as going from a Miles approach to a Luddy approach.

The kid now carries a sledge hammer, you watch.

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Jan 4, 2009 1:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

sorry for the two ‘night and day’s, it’s late

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Jan 4, 2009 1:35 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah

He has that long, beautiful swing and a good eye. Throw in plus defense and athleticism and he is easily a major league player. on most other teams, he would be a starter next year.

by vivaelpujols on Jan 4, 2009 1:53 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't see him before.

Was it really the approach before? I would love to see him displace a defensive liability like Duncan. He seems to be a significantly better athlete than Duncan, and he would provide a great power bat off of the bench that the Cardinals have been missing. I’m concerned that his long swing will be extremely susceptible to prolonged slumps.

by etp_stl on Jan 4, 2009 2:06 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

 His hips are a lot better and his swing isn’t nearly as long as it used to be (think Glaus when on the yips). Given that when he commits to a pitch, he commits.

You won’t get many walks but if you get a solid ISO from him, you’re not going to overly care as much (well, not as much). He can play both corners very, very well. In a pinch he can play CF, 3B and 1B. He’s quite durable.

Now it isn’t homerism, he could fall off the map. I’d take him over the ‘new’ Duncan, but the old? I don’t know about that.

With any long swingers you’re prone to slumps. But this one is cheap with a platoon happy manager, you can’t go wrong. If he has a steady diet of at bats I think he’ll be able to see the sliders better. He seems confidence prone and if he’s 100% come ST (injury wise) he should get a long look.

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Jan 4, 2009 3:35 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension

by sportsman on Jan 4, 2009 11:09 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If my memory serves me well,

I think I remember last spring when all the talk of pitchers seemed to center on Motte and Clayton Mortensen. Could Mortensen be the sleeper starter that will help us fill out the rotation?

victim of the sixties

by victim of the sixties on Jan 3, 2009 4:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

perhaps...

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 3, 2009 5:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

one mo down

goold quoting miles that mo entered the miles of cash sweepstakes with a 2 year offer over 4 million. this pushes me to the side of “wtf is he up to”.

"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension

by sportsman on Jan 3, 2009 8:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Miles...

… his WAR from last season dictated a higher salary than he got. even expecting him to regress it’s doubtful he’s worth less than $2mn/year (marginal salary of ~ $1.5mn, b/c his replacement will still cost something). plus, he could’ve been the starting 2B in ‘10 if we couldn’t find something better, which would put less pressure on Mo to overpay for somebody mediocre, like Jock did for Kennedy. it doesn’t look like Ryan or Hoff is ready to provide production similar to Miles; i guess the jury is still out on Barden, but color me skeptical. so 2/$4 wasn’t a “WTF?” offer in my mind.

the Miles situation, to me, is “meh”. all in all, i’m glad he’s gone, because the Cubs traded DeRosa after they got him, presumably to create payroll space for Bradley. that move likely made the team worse even if they do end up getting Milton. so Mo’s inaction dented our biggest rival and chief competitor for the division, and it didn’t cost us a cent.

by kindred on Jan 3, 2009 10:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If Miles was our everday starter in 2010

that would be a huge mistake. There are better options in our farm than Miles. He is a guy who if he doesn’t hit close to .320, he is an offensive liability. And his defense is barely average at second and bad everywhere else. Resigning Kennedy would be a much better idea than giving a starting job to Miles. At least Kennedy is an excellent fielder and he has some upside to be a decent hitter.

by vivaelpujols on Jan 4, 2009 1:56 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

why?

Miles has been better than Kennedy in each of the last two seasons, according to WAR. it’s true that Miles had a high BABIP last season, but Kennedy also played much better defense than his career norms. if you expect Miles to regress then you should expect Kennedy to as well.

i have no idea what you mean by that “upside to be a decent hitter” comment.

by kindred on Jan 4, 2009 4:45 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

From 02-05

Kennedy had a least a 3 WAR and his OBP was between .345 and .354. This was the first year that Miles surpassed .1 WAR. And this was only Kennedy’s 3rd best season defensively according to UZR. Kennedy has hit double digit homers twice, while Miles hasn’t topped 6. Kennedy is 32, Miles is 32.

by vivaelpujols on Jan 4, 2009 5:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

well...

going into next year, ’05 will have been 3+ years away. we have more recent performance than that to look at, such as his sub-.600 OPS in ’07. he was a bit better last year, but Kennedy was essentially platooned last year. he almost never got ABs against LH pitchers because Miles/Ryan/Lopez were there. having Kennedy as your starter necessitates having another 2Bmen on the roster who can hit against LH pitchers. Miles could play against against righties or lefties.

i’m not crying over Miles leaving. but the money Mo offered wasn’t unreasonable. that’s all i’m saying. it’s less than what Kennedy is making, and you suggested that resigning Kennedy would have been better.

by kindred on Jan 4, 2009 7:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

“Miles has been better than Kennedy in each of the last two seasons, according to WAR.”

Split hairs much? Miles was .1WAR in 2007 when Kennedy was injured with a -1 WAR. 2008 was a 1.9 to 1.7 advantage for Miles. Given the error bars on valuation you can’t make that statement with any significant confidence.

They’re both marginal players that are probably ~ 1WAR in value moving forward.

by azruavatar on Jan 4, 2009 12:50 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

a 1 war would mean re-signing miles to a two-year $5 million deal would be a decent (and meh) move.

by greenback06 on Jan 4, 2009 1:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

In isolation

but you already have a player that can do the exact same thing. It’s a poor allocation of resources, which was the argument last year with kennedy, miles, izturis and ryan all on the roster.

by azruavatar on Jan 4, 2009 5:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

kennedy and izturis/greene aren’t similar players to miles. miles is a meh fielder but can get on base a bit, something these two can’t do (this is no different from your claim perez adds something to the bullpen because he’s a different ‘style’ of pitcher than franklin or mcclellan btw). ryan’s the redundant one and he can do just as well adding crap-depth at memphis, which is probably where he would’ve spent most of 2007 if scott spiezio hadn’t had his episode.

ultimately it’s $5 million over two years. i can understand how three years of miles’s complete lack of athleticism would lead to some axe-grinding, but that kind of money makes it hard to construct any great philosophical point about resource allocation. it’s too minor and too meh all around.

by greenback06 on Jan 4, 2009 6:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

as it stands right now

AK will be here. Greene is here. Giving Miles that kind of money is just taking resources away that will be used better on a SP or RP. It just makes no sense to me for the team to spend that much money on a utility player when his kind of production is mostly replaceable by someone making the minimum.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Jan 4, 2009 9:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

“but that kind of money makes it hard to construct any great philosophical point about resource allocation.”

I have a player who, for all intents and purposes, is limited to 2B. He’s worth 1 WAR. Why would I sign another player who is worth 1 WAR at that position. That is the philosophical point about roster construction that bit the Cardinals in the ass last year when they decided to run their 1 WAR second basemen into the OF.

It’s different from the bullpen example because having pitchers who present multiple looks can (potentially) disrupt hitter timing. Unless we’re going to have a discussion that having someone who can hit marginally well and someone who can field marginally well is important for bench duties and defensive replacements, we wind up with two redundant crappy 2B.

by azruavatar on Jan 4, 2009 11:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

several reasons...

… first off, Kennedy was much less than a 1 WAR player in ‘07 (actually -1.0). second, Greene was less than a 1 WAR player in ’08 (actually -.05). third, Kennedy is strictly a platoon player. fourth, the chance of injury is not negligible. fifth, because Ryan was below replacement last year, and there’s not a ton of hope that Barden or Hoff will be any better. sixth, because the cost is low. seventh, because we won’t have an MLB-ready 2Bmen or SS from our system in ’10, and having a cheap above-replacement option will prevent us from signing the next 3-year deal for a Kennedy-esque player.

it’s a “meh” thing, which is what i’ve always said. if the Cardinals actually fill out the payroll and sign some plus players with that extra cash, then great. but if not, then they’ve sacrificed one or two wins this year and have to fill two infield spots next year all to save a coupla million. and they might not actually do that if they end up signing another utility guy this year and/or spending silly money on a Kennedy type next year.

by the way, there aren’t many appealing FA SS or 2B next year. so… whatever.

by kindred on Jan 5, 2009 4:28 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Brian Roberts

And there’s always the trade market. By next year, some of our outfielders will have a lot more value because the FA market will be extremely thin unlike this years.

by vivaelpujols on Jan 5, 2009 11:55 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not happy with front office

The only reason they’re starting Kennedy is, one – he wouldn’t be traded for much talent and two, his contract. I think that’s one of the dumbest things I’ve seen the Cardinals pull in a long time. Also, they should’ve gotten Springer back. He wouldn’t be nearly as expensive as some other relievers out there, and he both played well and liked it here. I was very upset when they didn’t want him back, and I’m still irked about it.

by zoomzoomj88 on Jan 25, 2009 10:28 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

chatty

according to hummel, mo has final say over the questions he answers i his chats. bad for wasting the space with those kinds of questions and bad for jacking up the antagonism.

"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension

by sportsman on Jan 25, 2009 9:42 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I don't know.

I think it’s pretty funny. Mo has a sense of humor. Plus, it’s an excellent diversionary tactic.

by spants on Jan 26, 2009 12:21 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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