I know this isn't our usual topic of conversation here at VEB, but I think it is interesting and illuminating to take a closer look at our chief division rival: the hated Cubs. The Cubs are the favorite in the NL Central, and possessed a very good rotation last year; however, like many teams they do come into the season with some significant questions.

1.Will Carlos Zambrano be healthy?

Carlos Zambrano missed a number of starts last season; He pitched 120 innings with a 2.84 ERA in the first half and 68 innings with a 5.80 ERA in the second half. The cause? Shoulder soreness and later, rotator-cuff tendinitis and inflammation.Given our experiences with Mulder and Carpenter, we are intimately acquainted with the fact that shoulder injuries can be devastating to even the best pitchers. 
In an article for the Hardball Times, Carlos Gomez, the noted guru of pitching mechanics, notes in 2007 Zambrano seemed to be having shoulder issues:

"Zambrano has been asking for a lucrative contract extension. Considering his performance so far this year, his velocity loss and possible signs of arm trouble, the Cubs would be foolish to sign him to a long-term deal. Too many question marks there. I sincerely hope that what I'm seeing is not what I think I'm seeing."

Lo and behold, the very next season Zambrano goes down because of the shoulder.  A steady decline of strikeouts can be noted in the past three seasons, another indicator of arm/shoulder problems (the following is K/9):
     

• 2006- 8.83
• 2007- 7.36
• 2008- 6.20

In his last 5 starts of the season, he pitched only 24.2 Innings, allowing 22 hits, 15 walks, and an ERA of 8.03. This is including the one good game he had in this stretch where he threw a complete game no-hitter; taking out that game, he threw a miniscule 15.2 innings in 4 starts and allowed 22 hits, 14 walks, and had 22 ER. Clearly he was not right in the entire second half, but his performance deteriorated as the half went on; this suggests a worsening condition.

Could Zambrano bounce back and be fine next season? Yes.

Will he?

It's impossible to know, but if I were a betting man I wouldn't bet on Zambrano pitching a full season next year. Shoulder injuries are simply too pervasive to be confident about his continuing success, which leads us into our next question:


2. Will Rich Harden Be healthy either?


Rich Harden is as good as anyone when healthy, but we all know the story about him; he has pitched only 219 innings in the past three seasons combined.

We know how injury prone he is, and then this comes out, courtesy of the Chicago Sun Times:

"But sources also confirmed Saturday that Harden has a tear in the joint, just severe enough that some players might seek surgery but slight enough to be in a range often treated effectively with a strengthening program, therapy and a well- managed work schedule.

That's more than the Cubs let on last fall, even after the revelation that Harden had a cortisone shot for rotator [cuff] tendinitis."

His peripherals all looked very good last season and showed no sign of decline, but how can anyone be confident that an injury that can sideline any pitcher won't sideline the king of the DL?

Much like Zambrano, there is no way to know how much this will affect him. I have to ask though: realistically, is anyone optimistic?
I wouldn't bet on Harden pitching a full season, either.

(As a sidenote, as you probably noticed, Harden was initially diagnosed with rotator-cuff tendinitis, the same condition that Zambrano was diagnosed with last season. This can often lead to a tear, as it did with Harden. A glimpse into Zambrano's future?)


3. How good will Ryan Dempster be?

Ryan Dempster pitched 5 seasons as a starter before last season. He posted ERA's of 4.71, 3.66, 4.94, 5.38, and 6.54. His career ERA is 4.55 in 1425 IP, and his career FIP is 4.41. Last season he had a 2.96 ERA, and a 3.41 FIP. As you can see, 2008 was by far his best season.

 His peripherals also suggest that he had a great year that is outside his career norms:

                    2008             Career
K/9               8.14                7.54
BB/9            3.31                4.47
HR/9            0.61               0.96
BABIP         .288                .309      (20.1 LD% in 2008)
HR/FB         7.7%              9.9%

Every stat is better than his career numbers by a significant margin. Of special note to me are the drops in his walk and HR rates.

32 year-old mediocre starters that were converted into relievers and back into starters dont often turn into perennial Cy Young contenders. Given his peripherals and career numbers, all signs point to this being a career year for Dempster. I wouldn't expect him to continue at that level, and there's a good chance he regresses significantly.

(Seems that the Cubs disagree, as they fell into the Lohse trap: they awarded Dempster a 4-year, $51 Million contract for his great season. )

Conclusion


With Zambrano and Harden's  shoulder issues, it's entirely possible that the Cubs will be without their 1 and 2 pitchers for a significant chunk, maybe most, of the season. Considering that their number 3 is due to regress quite a bit, their pitching situation doesn't look quite as rosy as some portray it. Ted Lilly is a good bet to be a solid innings-eater type, but even he has had mediocre FIP's the past couple seasons.

 

What does everyone think about the Cubs' rotation this year?