Wainwright -- the ace
Let’s get right to it.
| GS | IP | W | L | HR | BB | K | ERA | WHIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZIPS | 26 | 165 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 49 | 110 | 3.71 | 1.31 |
| Marcel | 135 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 43 | 99 | 3.67 | 1.29 | |
| Chone | 25 | 124 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 85 | 3.77 | 1.28 |
| VEB | 30.7 | 199 | 16.4 | 7 | 14.5 | 56.7 | 144.2 | 3.31 | 1.22 |
Once again, here at VEB we are extremely optimistic. In fairness, in 2 of our first 3 projections are for players who, because of ineffectiveness or injury, underperformed last year. Still, we are way ahead of what the other projections have pegged for Wainer. Let’s look at just the rate stats.
| HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ZIPS | 0.65 | 2.67 | 6.0 |
| Marcel | 0.73 | 2.87 | 6.60 |
| Chone | 0.80 | 2.61 | 6.17 |
| VEB | 0.66 | 2.57 | 6.52 |
So maybe our numbers aren’t that out of line after all. The big difference between our numbers and the ZIPS, Marcel, and Chone projections is that we expect him to pitch many more innings, and start many more games than they do. That’s not all that unusual. Those projection systems weigh the previous season much more heavily than any other season and can’t forecast a "comeback" the way we can. I, for one, hope that we’re right. If we’re going to be close, Wainwright’s going to have to get 200 innings or so.
As far as our projections go, they ranged from mojowo11’s 140 innings to RayMonD’s and giveml’s 224. Gdm has Wainwright garnering 22 wins while the low, by archsupport, is 12. That’s not all that low – to be the lowest of 68 projections. His losses range from 4 to 11 – every one of us has Wainwright w/ a winning record in ’09. His ERA ranges from 2.48 (Wow!) to 3.88. Just to be clear, our highest projections for Wainwright’s ERA are only slightly higher than the ZIPS and Chone projections. Needless to say, we’ve got a high opinion of Wainwright’s abilities and the team needs us to be right.
In other news, for some reason the Cards have no interest in having Russ Springer return in ’09. Ok, I get that he’s 40 and has absolutely no experience as a closer. I get that La Russa doesn’t really like him pitching consecutive days. But, as long as we’re looking for good bullpen arms, he’s a pretty good one. He could certainly help solidify the pen better than Izzy or Brandon Lyon, despite his relative dearth of experience. Would we really rather have Izzy than Springer just b/c Izzy has 293 career saves and Springer has 8? Who will be the better pitcher in ’09? I’m just askin’.
Finally, if you’re not checking out future redbirds daily, you’re missing out. In today’s episode, Erik has absolutely fallen in love w/ Sky Kalkman’s new WAR spreadsheet. He uses it today to take Cards’ minor leaguers’ peak translations from BP to determine that the 2011 Cards could be a 91 win team. Granted these are just projections, and projections based on minor league numbers at that. Still, combine this w/ Erik’s determination that the best free agents still on the market would win just 80 games and it’s easy to see why the worm has turned in major league front offices. Teams are placing much more value on younger, cost-controlled players and less on older, eligible-for-free-agency players.
I’ll be programming tomorrow’s post and Thursday’s as I’m off to DC for the inauguration. Because I am, at heart, a masochist, I am among about 10 other teachers taking about 90 students to DC for what promises to be an eventful, yet cold, 5 days. The point is that you won’t be seeing me in the threads very often in the next few days so …. You kids behave or I’ll call your parents! (just getting prepared!)
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Wainer's BB/K ratio
Wow- the other projections have Wainer with a rather unimpressive BB/K rate. I think the VEB projection is more in line with his real potential (close but not quite 1-3). Obviously VEB agrees with me. Anyone think ZIPS, Marcel, or Chone has the inside track on that particular stat?
I agree, if the Cards are going to have a chance in ’09, the VEB projection for Wainer needs to be close to that line.
Chuckb is a teacher? Glad to know that I’m not the only one on VEB.
Me too.
(as in, I am also a teacher.) I think there are quite a few of us around these parts, actually.
I'm not quite there yet
But I’m majoring in secondary ed and history, so I’ll be joining those ranks one day!
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Jan 17, 2009 8:51 AM EST up reply actions
Professions
There seems to be quite a few lawyers/law school students around here as well. Hey chuckb, better you than me. Not only are you doing this trip over many days and with quite a few students, but you are sacrificing your weekend as well! And RunninRedbird, good luck on the history, those jobs are one of the scarcest in teaching. I ended up getting certified in math as well to increase my chances.
Thanks for the well wishes
I’m also minoring in Spanish, which I hope will increase my ability to get hired.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Jan 17, 2009 9:49 AM EST up reply actions
I used to be
Got my Masters in History and started teaching, then gave up on it, and, while I didn’t exactly sell out, I did buy in. Thus getting an MBA and starting on the exciting cross country journey that is being a manufacturers rep. Luckily, travels take me to Chicago (when the Cards are in town), Milwaukee (when the Cards are in town), St. Louis (ditto), Cincinatti (ditto), I sense a pattern developing. Go Cards!
Yup
Phys. Ed.
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
From far away another warrior battling the Dark Forces of Ignorance! Teachers unite . .
An optimist is a man who upon discovering that a rose smells better than a cabbage concludes it will make better soup.
HL Mencken
braintrust
well, it’s a scholarly blog
by Scarecrow7775 on Jan 17, 2009 9:34 AM EST up reply actions
you're walking into a nightmare
Maybe i’m jaundiced as a DC resident, but even without any sort of emergency (let’s say our prayers) the district infrastructure is just going to be completely overwhelmed. i sincerely wish you good luck herding those kids around. teachers deserve better for their efforts.
Good luck
As a fellow educator, I applaud your masochism and courage. I’m sure it won’t be an easy field trip, but assuming things go relatively smoothly (very relatively), I’m sure it’ll be something you, the 9 other teachers, and the 90 kids will always remember as a great experience.
Sounds like the Cards will wait until ST
to see if Carpenter can be a part of the rotation, thereby not adding anyone to the rotation beforehand. I assume all of you in StL read this in the P-D? I got it off of Rotoworld this morning: The St. Louis Post Dispatch reports that the Cardinals are “cautiously optimistic” about Chris Carpenter being ready for Opening Day following elbow surgery…“Given what we’re hearing from him medically, I’m confident more than ever that he’s going to compete this year,” general manager John Mozeliak said. “If he can go, we have a good rotation. If he can’t, we’ll use spring to address it.” Just means that Wainwright better be as good as we hope he can be, because there may not be a lot of help from the FO by the time they see that Carp is a no-go.
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jan 17, 2009 12:46 PM EST reply actions
I also think it's funny
that a post about Wainwright’s status as an ace has turned into a resumé-padding discussion. Just one of the free-wheeling posting patterns that I love about this blog.
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jan 17, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
"we'll use spring to address it."
i.e. dumpster dive.
What are they gonna do with the extra payroll money that they haven’t spent? Surely they are not going to spring with this team as is.
They probably are
and don’t call me Shirley.
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jan 17, 2009 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
I'm anything if not predictable.
Whatever that means.
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jan 17, 2009 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
*anything=nothing
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jan 17, 2009 2:05 PM EST up reply actions
i knew you were gonna say that
"I'm as nauseous as I've ever been. I have a terrible headache. My head is pounding. I feel like throwing up and I'm having trouble swallowing. And the beauty of it is, you want to feel like this every day." - Tony LaRussa
I do
but that joke is as old as the hills, like me.
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jan 17, 2009 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
By "cautiously optimistic"
does he mean that they are praying to Zeus that Carp is healthy because he just bet the whole season on it?
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 17, 2009 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
You know part of me almost...ALMOST hopes they crash and burn...
So they finally freaking learn
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
NO Garland, NO Wolf, NO Looper!
by jealousblues on Jan 17, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
"Cautiously optimistic" is management speak for "cheap" and let's hope for another Welly find. . .
in the Mound Dumpster . . .
An optimist is a man who upon discovering that a rose smells better than a cabbage concludes it will make better soup.
HL Mencken
Unless this is just a public front to put pressure on agents,
I think I am about to join the brigade of cynical minds that see the team’s ownership as grasping and cheap. When was the last time we won a competition with another team to sign a free agent? Eckstein? That wasn’t much of a competition.
There are glaring needs on this team, and available ways to address them. Some of those are affordable, but the good ones are not dirt cheap.
Sign someone who can pitch, then let this team play.
by IL and StL Fan on Jan 17, 2009 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not so sure...
I think there is a lot of logic in this move. The way it appears right now one of Sheets, Wolf, Garland and Looper will still be looking for work come mid-March. If we can get one of these guys on a deal similar to the Lohse contract last year that makes more sense than rusing to sign them to a multi year deal right now.
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
I dont understand the logic
If that post was a week ago it would be said Sheets, Wolf, Garland, Looper and Lowe will be available in March
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
NO Garland, NO Wolf, NO Looper!
by jealousblues on Jan 17, 2009 5:52 PM EST up reply actions
OK
After calming down, I think it is best to see what they actually do. I’ll just be really discouraged if we enter the season with nothing.
Sign someone who can pitch, then let this team play.
by IL and StL Fan on Jan 18, 2009 2:59 AM EST up reply actions
Regarding the "conservative" nature of CHONE and Marcel
While it’s true they know nothing about injuries and 2009 health, they do at least know that every pitcher has a decent chance of missing time going forward. 200 IP is a very high total to project and should be saved for guys like Johan, CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay, etc. Guys who have proven year after year they can go the distance.
Just because many pitchers do end up throwing 200 IP each season doesn’t mean you should project many to do so. As one test of this, take the pitchers from 2007 who tossed 200 IP. Then see how many also did it in 2008. I bet it’s under half. For those 2007 IP pitchers, find their average IP for that year and then for 2008. It’s much lower.
For Wainwright, think about it in terms of what might happen. Here’s on outsider’s example:
Perfectly healthy and studly: 10, 230 IP
Healthy, like 2007: 40, 200 IP
Misses 20% of starts, bit better than 2008: 40, 160 IP
Major injuries: 10, 50 IP
If you weight each probability by the corresponding IP, you get an average of 172 IP. That’s a pretty solid projection.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Jan 17, 2009 1:02 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Of those that pitched at least 200 innings
in 2007 (there were 37 by my count), only 15 of those 37 managed 200 innings in 2008. That’s about 41%.
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jan 17, 2009 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
This Springer deal irks me
if you believe Springer, he’d play for peanuts (plus incentives) to be in the bullpen next year.
Our rotation currently is in John Mozeliak’s mind:
Chris Carpenter
Adam Wainwright
Kyle Lohse
Todd Wellemeyer
Joel Pineiro
Now, if the Cardinals believe that Joel can be easily replaced in house by Kyle McClellan (which is what they’ve hinted they want to do), then they need another RHP in the bullpen. Even with Kinney, Franklin, Motte and Perez…Springer would have been worthwhile to have around to stabilize the pen.
The best part is, if John Mozeliak really believes the rotation I stated above doesn’t need repairs (which is what he is saying in the press) then Springer doesn’t hamstring you financially either. The Fuentes money that is still sitting there in the bank is roughly $10 M, Springer makes it seem he would have played for $1 M.
And no offense to Mozeliak but that rotation I stated above has two pitchers at the top that missed 10+ starts last year, another who is a league average pitcher for his career, another that was a career reliever and the last a festering pile of dog dung. THAT ROTATION ALREADY NEEDS HELP!
Grumble, grumble.
If you aren’t going to spend the Fuentes money on a SP, then go ahead and sign Orlando Hudson and fix the other problem we have…2B.
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 17, 2009 1:45 PM EST reply actions
If they resign Springer, the Cards will forefit a 1st round draft pick.
I wouldn’t want to lose the 19th pick for more year of Russ Springer. He’d probably be good as a fireman in 2009, but I don’t blame them for looking elsewhere.
by Czechguardsman on Jan 17, 2009 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
I dont understand?
unless im missing something, Springer was our own FA and we dont lose anythign to sign him.
plus we didnt offer arbitration so if any other team signs him we dont get their pick anyway
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
NO Garland, NO Wolf, NO Looper!
by jealousblues on Jan 17, 2009 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
no
you don’t lose one for re-signing your own.
I guess you can say you do, but you lose it right back to the team that he just left, so you lose it to yourself.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Perhaps this is what confused the FO
they don’t want to lose the 19th pick to that St. Louis franchise. They have a rising farm system and by internal estimates believe that with a healthy Chris Carpenter they can compete in their own division.
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 18, 2009 12:43 AM EST up reply actions
Well, if they're that confused
maybe they have Chris mixed up with that other Carpenter, Cris.
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jan 18, 2009 2:54 AM EST up reply actions
i think he means
they would lose the pick they would get if springer signed with another team. or was springer a type B? i don’t remember now.
regardless, they didn’t offer him arbitration so they wouldn’t get that pick anyway.
yeah. nothing is lost by signing springer, except an opportunity for another pitcher in the organization.
"I'm as nauseous as I've ever been. I have a terrible headache. My head is pounding. I feel like throwing up and I'm having trouble swallowing. And the beauty of it is, you want to feel like this every day." - Tony LaRussa
McClellan was interviewed on a local program last night...
prior to the Caravan. He is preparing for ST as a starter as per instructed by TLR and DD…just saying. If we can sign Springer for anything less that $3M we’d be foolish not to.
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
why hudson? we already have kennedy. Kennedy was actually more valuable than hudson last year.
even if kennedy is worth more like 7 or 8 runs defensively than 17 or 18 this year, hudson would be a minor improvement over kennedy. Is that worth first round pick and a big chunk of money?
We could improve the rotation by several wins or the bullpen by one or two with signings. I don’t know that Hudson makes sense.
because maybe
Hudson is, by all accounts I have absorbed, a good clubhouse guy… possibly a spark-plug, possibly a gamer. By my contrary observations, Kennedy is NOT these things.
Is it worth the allocation of money/draft pick loss (to sign Hudson) given the glaring need for another starter? And what would we then DO with Kennedy? Good questions, but I would still be happy to see such a change.
Hudson may bring “energy” to the club; I don’t see Adam K doing that.
this is the problem with intangibles.
There’s never an objective answer.
"In a game dominated by numbers, new statistics and formulas that attempt to find a player’s exact value, there is still one that eludes any statistician.
Adam Kennedy seems to have that one thing.
“Adam’s a gamer,” Brendan Donnelly said."
If you say Adam isn’t a “gamer” and I say he is, where do we go? Neither of us could ever prove each other wrong. Should we hinge decisions on these totally subjective labels?
And probably most importantly, aren’t these labels just a way of expressing our sentiments towards these players? Would you be saying AK isn’t a “gamer” if he’d had a good 2007? A rational review of AK’s performance is that he had an off year in 2007 and his 2008 was at least typical Adam Kennedy, and was in fact reasonably good. I know I, however, have a strong anti-AK feeling because he screwed up, and badly, in his first year. I recognize that that feeling is partly irrational and out of proportion. It colored my view of his 2008 — I was really surprised to learn how well he’d done. It’s easy to let these subjective beliefs substitute for a fair and rational look at how the player actually plays.
should have signed eck
for 850
net is he and ak would be <5m between them; leadoff solved
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
ben sheets russ springer ben sheets russ springer ben sheets russ springer
ben sheets russ springer ben sheets russ springer ben sheets russ springer ben sheets russ springer
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
russ sheets ben springer
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
NO Garland, NO Wolf, NO Looper!
by jealousblues on Jan 17, 2009 11:40 PM EST up reply actions
Saw this over at Bernies, dont know if it was posted here or if its "old news"
http://cardsnstuff.wordpress.com/2009/01/17/kyle-mcclellan-is-mr-controversial/
Kyle McClellan told to prepare to start…
Finally, Kyle McClellan. I can’t say enough about how impressed I was with this young man. He made the event for me, and was clearly the most comfortable and vocal of all the players at the table. He conversed easily with fans, was eager to offer insight into the St. Louis Cardinals as a team, and appeared entirely comfortable representing the franchise and the team. He laughed, and even asked for the mic a couple times when a general question about the team was asked. But the best part was when he asked for the mic in response to a point posed by Horton about he and Jess Todd’s ability to pitch in either the ‘pen or the rotation…
Kyle McClellan flat out said last night that Dave Duncan told him at the end of last season to prepare to start and to compete for a spot in the starting rotation. Now, I know we all know Dunc is confident in his ability to start…and many of us want to see this happen…but this is the first official word I’ve heard come from the team about it – especially flat-out saying K-Mac is going to be given a chance to compete for a starting job. I loved it!
Later, as I was eagerly and excitedly going through the autograph line, I joked with Ricky Horton and Kyle about it a bit by saying, "You know, Kyle’s little ‘Dunc told me to prepare to start’ comment is going to be all over the fan websites tonight…"
Kyle, in his down-home approachable way, ducked his head and laughed while his head and face turned red. Horton – the wonderfully funny and enjoyable MC of the event – responded by saying, "Well, that’s Kyle…Mr. Controversial."
All-in-all a good event…but I was shocked to hear that Dunc gave Kyle the "Braden Looper Treatment" by telling him to get ready for the rotation…now THAT’S exciting!
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
NO Garland, NO Wolf, NO Looper!
by jealousblues on Jan 17, 2009 2:57 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
cool
thanks for that bit o news!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 17, 2009 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
from mlbtraderumors
“Buster Olney hears from some scouts who think Mark Mulder could be the "hidden gem” of this year’s free agent class. Mulder’s likely to throw for scouts within a couple weeks."
what the heck? i’m assuming he won’t pan out but how much would it suck if he did now?
I might flip out and drive to az with a sledgehammer.
Buster Olney, however, has about a 98 percent BR.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
DGoold is on twitter
guess his bird land blog just isn’t fast enough some days. man, i’m really behind the times. i’ve never even been on myspace & facebook.
interesting note, when MO asked the Yanks about Cano, they said sure, for Adam Wainwright. man, Cashman & the Steinbrenner’s get all the good drugs.
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
Duh,
the Yanks need to keep all the home grown players they can …
to keep payroll down ;-)
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
NO Garland, NO Wolf, NO Looper!
by jealousblues on Jan 17, 2009 11:42 PM EST up reply actions
ugh
“Chris Perez has been dealing with a bone spur in left ankle, limits ability to run — but not work on mechanics, as he’s done this winter”
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
“I’ve had worse!”
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 18, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
mozeliak on pettitte and sheets: hard to invest in pitchers like that with payroll especially if carpenter is ready to go – made me grumble
one of first questions to mozeliak: any chance of bringing aaron miles back?- made me wonder why someone who obviously isn’t a fan would pay to go to the warm-up
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
what's sad is those are the fans that go to a lot of the games
and are in charge of the local media. i can’t believe how uneducated & down right stupid they are. God help them if i ever win Powerball & buy the team. i’ll run everyone of those fools right out of town.
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
Not all, there is some wicked stuff around Bangkok where I do time, but not as wicked as giving up AW for RC
An optimist is a man who upon discovering that a rose smells better than a cabbage concludes it will make better soup.
HL Mencken
You're doing time in Bangkok?
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
from Birdland
A close second was Joe Mather’s take on how many positions he may play this spring. Mather played five different positions in the Florida State League — starting as a shortstop, moving to third and then first and finally, because of injuries around him, to left field and right field. He’s bring three gloves to Jupiter for spring training and if that means playing a little middle infield, the slugger with the power-forward frame is game:
"I’d like to play second," he said. "I think that would be a blast."
awesome. if he can at least back up third and first that would be great.
also, how exactly is CHONE pronounced? like tone or like shaun?
"I'm as nauseous as I've ever been. I have a terrible headache. My head is pounding. I feel like throwing up and I'm having trouble swallowing. And the beauty of it is, you want to feel like this every day." - Tony LaRussa

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