Community Prospect List #5
by Dave Barry on Jan 14, 2009 5:54 PM EST
47 comments
Chris Perez easily takes the number 4 spot with 60% of the vote.
1. Colby Rasmus
2. Brett Wallace
3. Jason Motte
4. Chris Perez
BA kicked out their Top Ten today.
| 1. | Colby Rasmus, of |
| 2. | Brett Wallace, 3b |
| 3. | Chris Perez, rhp |
| 4. | Jess Todd, rhp |
| 5. | Bryan Anderson, c |
| 6. | Clayton Mortensen, rhp |
| 7. | Daryl Jones, of |
| 8. | Jason Motte, rhp |
| 9. | David Freese, 3b |
| 10. |
Pete Kozma,ss They must really like Todd, Also check out their best tools list. Here are the next ten candidates. If there's someone else you think deserves it, say so in the comments, otherwise, vote for who you think is number 5. Also, feel free to make a pitch for who you voted for, and maybe spark some discussion about the future of our beloved team in the off season. Without further ado, the nominees for the Cardinals #5 prospect: |
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I suspect Jones will win the fifth spot
But I’m not sure that makes the most sense to me. We have a crowded outfield situation as it is. If we as fans are trying to evaluate who has the most “value” to the club right now, someone like Jess Todd is a better fit for the five-spot. We REALLY need pitching, and Jess could help meet that need.
I’ve seen have Todd suggested as a pretty decent #3 starter or a nice fit for the bullpen. Anyone care to disagree?
by JWO on Jan 14, 2009 9:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Why isn't B. Anderson getting any love?
He is a high OBP lefty catcher. That in itself is probably worth 3 WAR right now. If he ever developes some power than he could be an excellent hitter. Right now he projects to be a league average hitter, which for a 21 year old catcher is pretty good.
by vivaelpujols on Jan 14, 2009 9:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't understand the lack of love
for Anderson either. He gets my vote.
It is hard trying to rank these guys when we haven’t seen much, or anything, of them. Nevertheless, I think it is pretty safe to say the guy will hit and get on base in the bigs, especially with another year or two of development. I hear a lot of guys hate on his defense, but if Mike Matheny says he can hack it that is good enough for me. After all, he is probably better defensively than Steven Hill and Tony Cruz. He will probably hit for some power eventually as well – just look at Geovany Soto. He didn’t develop significant power until he was 24 and repeated AAA.
I don’t buy the redundant argument either as I think Yadi gets too much love. He is a good enough player, but he will never be an elite catcher. In by far his best offensive season of his career, in which he was so lucky he led the NL in infield hits, he was still not a top ten catcher according to fangraphs value function. Plus, most of his offensive value is against LHPs as he had more GIDPs than XBHs vs. RHPs. We need another catcher who is not just a scrub and we need one who can hit RHPs.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Jan 15, 2009 11:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How the hell
did Yadi get more than 1 infield hit, let alone lead the league?
by spants on Jan 15, 2009 2:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Psh
How’d he even get ONE?
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 15, 2009 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Tons of
swinging bunts. They play so deep due to his complete absence of anything even remotely resembling speed, that when he hits a whiffy he can leg it out. I have to laugh because I can think of a couple of times when the 3B didn’t throw even though he still could have gotten Yadi. Only guy in the league whose 60 time is done on a sun dial.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Jan 15, 2009 3:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
no one has ever said that
Yadier Molina is an elite offensive player. Molina’s value comes with his defense and the complete shutdown of the running game. I think you’d be hard-pressed to find a single player or manager in the national league who doesn’t think Molina is an elite, or THE ELITE catcher in the national league.
I hate winter!!!!
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Jan 15, 2009 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
THE ELITE in terms of defense or overall value? Evaluating catcher defense is one of the final frontiers of baseball performance analysis, but here’s some prevailing thought:
We have a pretty good idea that most major league catchers fall somewhere between -10 runs and +10 runs, based on their ability to block balls in the dirt, control the running game, and so forth. So, as a general guideline, if you think the catcher is awful defensively, knock one win off. If you think he’s just below average, knock off half a win. If you think he’s above average, add half a win. if you think he’s outstanding, add a full win.
Here’s Fangraph’s 2008 WAR for NL Cs with 400+ PAs (it factors SB/CS):
Name Value Wins
Brian McCann 5.7
Russell Martin 5.1
Geovany Soto 4.7
Chris Iannetta 4
Ryan Doumit 3.9
Bengie Molina 3.2
Chris Snyder 2.8
Yadier Molina 2.4
Jason Kendall 1.7
by astrostl on Jan 15, 2009 4:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Take a look at how Yadi compares in SB attempts against
vs. the other national league catchers.
McCann – 120
hernandez – 123
Kendall – 96
Snyder – 71
Schneider – 63
B. Molina – 104
Martin – 93
Soto – 94
Doumit – 93
Y. Molina – 52
Granted Yadi played a few less games than some of those guys, but that is definately shutting down the running game, regardless of what percentage he threw out.
I hate winter!!!!
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Jan 15, 2009 3:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
When you take innings into account
we are talking about one less SBA every 5-7 games. Pornstache allowed fewer SBAs per game than Yadi, caught nearly the same percentage of runners, and had virtually the same catcher’s ERA. I know it is a very small sample, but teams stole at the same rate against Mark Johnson as against Yadi even though they had a 100% success rate. Also, don’t forget to grant some credit to the Cardinals’ pitchers. They work very hard on being quick to the plate and that is at least as important as anything the catcher does. There is just no way that a player who is positioned outside the field of play is going to be a very significant defensive presence in the game.
In 2008 Yadi was 2.4 win catcher according to fangraphs which puts him right in the middle of the pack with defense included.
He is a good player, but if Anderson can have a .50-.70 better OBP against RHPs with equal or better pop, and better speed, then his defense would have to be horrific for him to not play.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Jan 15, 2009 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
against mark johnson?
what did he play, 6 games? holy small sample size batman!
by tom s. on Jan 16, 2009 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Isn’t the goal to induce the most mistakes, though? A catcher with a run-earning SB/CS rate would presumably do more for his team than one that prompted practically zero attempts against them. I only say “presumably” because it seems hard to factor the value on pitchers and infield defense.
by astrostl on Jan 15, 2009 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree with that
Isn’t the goal to induce the most mistakes, though? A catcher with a run-earning SB/CS rate would presumably do more for his team than one that prompted practically zero attempts against them.
I would say that taking away an offensive option is much better than inducing baserunning mistakes. Molina, and our pitching staff to a certain degree, completely take away the oppositions running game. Because he’s so good at picking people off, Yadi also holds runners close to the bag during their secondary leads as well, causing runners on first the inability to go from first to third on a single or score from second on a single. That’s something that you just can’t measure with statistics. You could only truly measure it by asking other players, especially basestealers and first base coaches, how their play changes when he is behind the plate. If he’s having a measurable impact on their baserunning decisions than that is a point in the Cardinal column.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 16, 2009 8:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If Molina had played in the 1980's...
We wouldn’t be having this discussion, but because he plays in an era where the stolen base isn’t en vogue because of smaller ballparks and the tendency for everyone to play for the big inning we question the worth of cutting down another team’s offensive option to steal a base.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jan 16, 2009 8:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I never meant to
say Yadi was a bum or anything. I just think Anderson need to get some respect because he will be a big leaguer and he will hit. Yadi is always going to get more rest than any other regular and he is more likely to be injured than a player at any other position. Combined with the fact that Yadi doesn’t hit much against RHPs and it makes sense to have a LH hitting catcher on the roster who can provide some added punch on the days Yadi sits.
Yadi just had his career best season at the plate. I don’t think anyone knows if that is a peak or trend, but he has hit much better against LHPs. His career ISO vs. RHPs is .090 and his career OBP against them is .301. Last year’s numbers were .096 ISO and .330 OBP. I don’t think it would be hard for Anderson to improve on those and I don’t think Western civilization as we know it will come to an end because of Anderson’s defense.
It is somewhat stylish around here to pan the guy because he hasn’t yet hit for much power and we already have Yadi. If Anderson can get a shot with the big club at the end of 2009 or in 2010 and proves himself to be at least a league average catcher than he will be a far more value trade chip and the team will be better as well.
That is all.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Jan 16, 2009 11:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The thing I’m proposing is that I think I WANT the other team to have the “offensive option” of stealing if the expected SB to CS ratio ends up giving my team runs. 100 attempts, 50SC, 50CS for example translates to 11 runs lost and 19 runs gained for a net total of +8 per basestealing runs, or roughly 80% of a full win in the standings.
Reducing leads could be measured statistically if the data were collected, but perhaps another way to look at it would be to compare base taking on hits by a given player on average in a year, then look at how they do against a given catcher. I’d expect the samples to be too small on that, so perhaps it could be done in classifications against entire classes of catchers considered to be good, average, and bad.
I totally agree that all the things which are not easily measured as of right now are value-adds, but we can still estimate how many runs per year we believe it adds and contrast it with SB/CS ratios. All I’m really saying is that I think there’s a mathematic point at which icing should be strictly worse than non-icing, it’s just a matter of where.
by astrostl on Jan 16, 2009 12:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jess Todd
I was thinking about Garcia as well but I ended up picking Todd. Garcia will be out this year because of TJ surgery while Todd will be pitching. They are both 22 by the way. By the numbers:
Todd 2008 AA 103 IP 4.22 FIP 3.38 K/BB
Garcia 2007 AA 103.1 IP 4.48 FIP 2.16 K/BB
As for Jones… I figure he is going to be our number 5 pick but I just don’t see why. Can someone explain to me why Jones is #5? And please, I don’t need to hear any more about his tools…
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 14, 2009 11:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Jones is still leading
and I’m still confused…
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 15, 2009 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I am still trying to figure out how Motte was #3
when I get that one down, I will work on the Jones at #5
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jan 15, 2009 6:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I suspect
Motte was a case of ballot stuffing. Just a hunch.
I only am who I am because I was born that way. I have a gift and I'm trying to not be selfish about it, but to use it, OK? Jealousy will get you nowhere!
by Dave Barry on Jan 15, 2009 6:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know how justifiable
it is, but Jones has more upside than anyone else on the list. He is however, a very risky bet.
I only am who I am because I was born that way. I have a gift and I'm trying to not be selfish about it, but to use it, OK? Jealousy will get you nowhere!
by Dave Barry on Jan 15, 2009 6:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If it's based on upside
Kozma should have more votes than he does now…
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 15, 2009 10:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Kozma is limited...
…in terms of upside. He’s a guy who is what he is…an average-based hitter with a good glove. His swing isn’t conducive to increasing his power output, so don’t hold your breath on that one. I just don’t see where the room to grow is with him. Jones, on the other hand, just had a breakout season that demonstrated why he’s considered by many (I believe AZ and erik would back me up on this one) to be the best pure athlete in the system.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 16, 2009 4:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's true that
Jones does have more upside than Kozma, but if Kozma has little or no upside then he was a lousy draft pick. I don’t deny Jones’s athleticism, but I think his breakout season was incredibly lucky. I really don’t trust his .399 BABIP. I’ll enjoy seeing him for myself in Springfield, but right now he’s not in my top 5.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 17, 2009 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
if Kozma has little or no upside then he was a lousy draft pick.
Precisely. He was a supplemental pick that the Cards snatched up for no apparent reason. They could have had Porcello, but gasp his agent was Scott Boras.
Here is Kozma’s Enhanced S.R. from the draft. Basically the dude is a fundamentally solid dude with a good bat and solid defensive skills. He and Ryan Theriot should be great fans.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 17, 2009 4:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
but he wasn't a supplemental pick
I like Kozma, but I would have been happier if he would have been a supp pick instead of going at #18.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jan 17, 2009 6:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I know...
he wasn’t a supp. pick. That was where he should have gone, so that’s what I meant.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 18, 2009 1:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
got it, and makes sense to me
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jan 18, 2009 2:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, for one he has a lot of tools...
;)
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 16, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He should
be a mechanic then
;)
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 17, 2009 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Mitch Boggs
already has pitched in the major, I think he will develop another pitch, which will be quite effective
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 15, 2009 12:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
His K/BB
ratio in Memphis last year was 1.76. That kind of scares me. It was 2.47 in A+, 1.89 in AA, 1.76 in AA, then .59 in his brief stint in STL. All of the minor league stops were well over 100 innings so the only one where you can really cite the small sample size is in STL where it was only 34 innings. It’s his strikeout rate that has dropped at each level, which doesn’t bode well for him in the future.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 15, 2009 10:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He may not get many votes
But applesauce doesn’t even get a spot on the ballot?
"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin
by That's a Winner on Jan 15, 2009 3:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
he already is #3
*cough Ben Sheets *cough Sheets
I must be getting a Sheets cold.
by bearcatcardfan on Jan 15, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry
Temporary blindness. Guess he’s already gotten a lot of votes.
"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin
by That's a Winner on Jan 15, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm
To me, ranking prospects is a two question answer—
1. How close is the guy to the major leagues?
2. How good will he be when he gets there?
Now, the two don’t go in any particular order, and if one is really high and really low than it can still rate as a high score on the rbn8206 scout-o-meter.
I went with Todd…It was close, but here’s why:
1. Todd is, if nothing more, a solid middle reliever type. He’s really a two-pitch guy from what I’ve heard, and his stuff is good, but not otherworldly. On the other hand, he’s quite close to the majors IMO, prob. with an ETA as a full-time MLer in 2010 and maybe even sooner if he has a year like this past one.
2. Jones will probably be a more valuable guy once he makes it…guys with plus speed, some OBP skills and pop, and a good glove are never a bad thing. However, with Jones there is a very real possibility, at least in my mind, that he’ll be nothing more than replacement level. I just don’t know with him…
So, to me anyway, Todd is closer and is (at this point anywho) a safer bet to be a quality major leaguer than Jones. So, I went with Todd. I suspect, however, that Jones will win and I’ll end up voting for Todd again down the line.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 16, 2009 4:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I like your reasoning
can’t disagree with it, but wouldn’t Garcia be a more qualified leader under your criteria?
I only am who I am because I was born that way. I have a gift and I'm trying to not be selfish about it, but to use it, OK? Jealousy will get you nowhere!
by Dave Barry on Jan 16, 2009 5:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know how he'll respond to TJ
TJ is pretty well laid out now as far as rehab goes, but you never know if the player will commit to it. I worked as a pitching instructor for several years after college and still do it a bit on the side now for kids of friends, so I try my best to stay in touch with orthopedic stuff. It’s a long and difficult process and one has to fully commit to it. If they don’t, they don’t make it. I think there’s a lot of perception that TJ is a magical surgery of some kind, but it’s no walk in the park. Plus there’s always the Carpenter Problem…other injuries that crop up in the process. That’s my logic anyway.
If Garcia were healthy, he probably would have come in ahead of both Perez and Motte in my book (#3 total) because I value starters higher than relievers and he’s got #2-3 starter potential from where I sit. I just don’t know at this point though.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 16, 2009 6:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Like redbirdnation said
Garcia just had TJ. Plus, as I presented with the numbers above, Todd did better in AA than Garcia. From a non-numbers standpoint, my friends and I would always try to get to the games in Springfield that Todd started. Garcia, not so much. I watched Todd strike out 5 of 6 during the Texas League all star game and there’s no topping that for me.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 17, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
what makes us say jones is going to make the majors at all? or rake when he gets here?
take a look at his 2007 line. I’m not yet convinced that he didn’t simply have a stellar 2008. I think people are overweighting one good season. certainly, one year’s work at high-A shouldn’t catapult a 21-yo into the top five prospect list.
Maybe he’ll succeed. I’m sure not saying he won’t. but I’d like to see him put up another solid year before we start fitting him for a birds on the bat jersey.
by tom s. on Jan 16, 2009 5:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What he could be
catapults him higher on the list. His skill set could be comparable to Carl Crawford or Curtis Granderson(quite frankly, I can’t find a great comparison}. If he had a longer track record with numbers similar to 2008, he would be easily within the top three candidates. Obviously his track record is less than stellar, and even in 2008 he was a bit lucky.
However, If you buy into his improvement being real and sustainable, he’s an easy choice for the five slot (or higher).
I only am who I am because I was born that way. I have a gift and I'm trying to not be selfish about it, but to use it, OK? Jealousy will get you nowhere!
by Dave Barry on Jan 16, 2009 5:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 17, 2009 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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