Most Cost-Effective Franchises 1998 — 2008
According to a study documented by Peter Bernstein, the Cardinals rank third in "getting the most bang for their buck". http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=3816824
The article graphs the correlation between team wins and team payroll over the past ten years. From this they find the avg expected wins per dollar spent. The study finds that a team with a $50 million payroll can expect to win 74.2 games (I guess that's a two inning rain out with a lead).
Contrast the expected wins with the actual wins and, well here are the top four teams(all MLB teams are in the article).
| Most and Least Cost-Effective Franchises 1998 — 2008 | ||||
| Team | Avg. Payroll | Expected Wins | Actual Wins | Difference |
| OAK | $59.2 | 75.8 | 87.3 | 11.5 |
| MIN | $55.1 | 75.1 | 84.3 | 9.2 |
| STL | $100.6 | 82.9 | 89.2 | 6.3 |
| ATL | $120.0 | 86.2 | 92.4 | 6.1 |
Anyway you look at it, this is good news. We have been getting the wins that you couldnt' "expect" much shy of a $140 million dollar payroll.
The A's and the Twins, I would think, owe alot of their success to scouting and developing, but who do we thank for this over-achievement? Maybe its the front offices ability to identify and value talent. Tony LaRussa's presence in the dugout? Perhaps you simply think that Pujols being paid so under-value says it all. I would like to read your opinions.
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I think it is Duncan
Duncan has had great success of taking pitchers with performance issues and turning them aces. Think about who are aces going into each season have been the last few years and how much of that you could contribute to Duncan.
2002- Daryl Kile: he was a classic Duncan type pitcher. He was a pretty good pitcher for most of his career. We picked him up after a couple of truly ugly years in Colorado and he flourished in his 2 and 1 half seasons in St. Louis.
2003- Matt Morris: he was one of the few guys who we developed in the system and was an all star caliber player. Duncan probably had a good effect on him because once he left St. Louis he was very average.
2004- Woody Williams: he was another Duncan project. A guy who had some average years in San Diego and then was dominant in his first 2 partial years in St. Louis and very good in 03 as well.
2005- Mark Mulder: he was the one guy who we acquired with the intention of him being our ace. He had a good year in 05, although he was overshadowed by Carp, and then you know the rest.
2006- Chris Carpenter: we picked him up in 04 after some ineffective and injury plagued years in Toronto. He was a different type of pitcher than Dunc usually goes for because he had some legitimate stuff and potential, but we got him off the scrap heap anyway and he was great.
2007- Chirs Carpenter
2008- Adam Wainright: the next Matt Morris? He certainly has follow a similar pattern. He spent a year in the bullpen but is slowly starting to turn into one of the best young pitchers in the game. If he is healthy all next year, I would be shocked if he doesn’t win at least 15 games.
Pujols obviously is the rock. The guy who will make our team a contender just by stepping on the field. But I think that it is Dunc’s ability to turn around pitchers career’s and develop some young studs that have really helped us win.
by vivaelpujols on
Jan 13, 2009 8:46 PM EST
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yeah
duncan is a huge reason our club has been around the 100 million payroll and continues to do well year after year (except in 07)
that’s the reason i like TLR as the manager because he works with the best pitching coach to give the cardinals the best bang for the buck, especially with starters. I wonder how the cardinals will do once TLR and Duncan leave and we still have a 100 million payroll.
Cardwash - Cardinal, Washington fan (Washington???? Yeah, I know)
by cardwash on
Jan 14, 2009 4:25 AM EST
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Duncan is/has been important
I don’t think you can give Duncan any credit at all though for Mulder. He was drafted and developed by the A’s and actually had about his worst “good” season that year.
You could also give Duncan at least some of the blame for not working well with Reyes. I’m in the camp that thinks that both parties were at fault to some extent.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on
Jan 14, 2009 8:25 AM EST
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well
mulder wasn’t much of a duncan wanting, more of a walt jocketty wanting. Duncan gave the cards career years from guys other teams thought were scrap heap: carpenter, williams, kile, and other players who before/after the cards weren’t so good, lohse, suppan, Morris, Stottlemyre,
well..stottlemyre was decent i guess lol
Cardwash - Cardinal, Washington fan (Washington???? Yeah, I know)
by cardwash on
Jan 14, 2009 11:17 PM EST
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Generally agree
but not fair to call Kile scrap heap. He was a very good pitcher before the Coors effect and a very good pitcher after. He lived on that curveball and it didn’t curve enough in Denver.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on
Jan 15, 2009 11:56 AM EST
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wasn't Morris being veryaverage once he left St. Louis
mostly because the injuries caught up with that arm? He was very average or worse his last couple seasons here too. Duncan might have had an effect on him, but with his stuff he was going to be pretty damn good anywhere when healthy.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on
Jan 14, 2009 5:36 PM EST
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Pujols being paid under value
is a huge part of this. Huge.
by spants on
Jan 13, 2009 9:55 PM EST
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This is absolutely
the best explanation. Especially before he signed his current contract – it was likely getting 8 or 9 wins for free! It will be interesting to see how “efficient” we are as we pay Albert closer to market wage.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on
Jan 14, 2009 11:37 AM EST
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Two time MVP
and a two time Cy Young (who only won one of them) being vastly underpaid helped this greatly.
by Hardcore Legend on
Jan 13, 2009 10:12 PM EST
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I'm not sure that study tells me anything
When I look up and down that list, and think of the last ten years, the list reads pretty much “successful clubs to unsuccessful clubs.”
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
by jd is legend on
Jan 13, 2009 10:27 PM EST
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Similar to
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on
Jan 13, 2009 10:37 PM EST
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Walt Jocketty deserves credit
How quickly we all forget Walt. He was astute and willing to make bold trades. He also was masterful at maximizing ROI (er, Return On Investment) and getting key contributions by buying low on cheap FAs.
Think about how cheaply he managed to find a solution at 2B for all those years. Or his foresight when finding FA pitchers like Carp or Suppan. Those were absolutely fundamental to the high ROI in terms of wins per dollar spent. Not to mention guys like Kiko Calero. Or lower profile trades like acquiring Fernando Tatis, Darryl Kile, Dave Veres or selling high on Kent Bottenfield.
He also gets little credit for emphasizing defensive players – and defense has traditionally been undervalued when it comes to a player’s salary. Think of all the years we benefitted from a cheap Matheny, Vina, Grudz, Renteria, etc.
by airhad on
Jan 14, 2009 12:34 AM EST
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He would probably still be here
If he could of just got along with Jeff Luhnow who I think most would agree has been a god send to our minor league system.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on
Jan 14, 2009 2:28 AM EST
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Luhnow has been a Godsend
But our minor leagues wouldn’t be in the shape they are with Walt still here. He probably would have thinned out the herd by moving them for high-profile veteran talent, which is part of the reason why our farm system was average to poor for most of the Jocketty era. It’s not all Walt’s fault, but he was part of the problem.
I honestly think that we wouldn’t have made the Mulder trade had Mozeliak been the GM at that time.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on
Jan 14, 2009 10:33 AM EST
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Walt has made some great trades also
Good trades:
1997- Big Mac for Blake Stein, T.J. Matthews and Eric Ludwick: we clearly won that trade as those 3 players never had success in the bigs except for Matthews and he was a reliever.
1998- Edgar Renteria for Armando Almanza, Braden Looper and Pablo Ozuna: we gave up a lot of talent but we got an excellent young player for many years.
1999- Dave Veres, Daryl Kile and Luther Hackman for Manny Aybar, Brent Butler, Jose Jimenez and Rich Croushoure: Dave Veres had some pretty good years with us and of course DK was great. The guys we gave up were nothing special.
2000- Jim Edmonds for Kent Bottenfield and Adam Kennedy: obviously a great trade. Kennedy was a good second baseman for a while with the Angels and Bottenfield flamed out after his big year in ’99.
2001- Woody Williams for Ray Lankford and cash: Woody was great for us from 01-03 and he was still a solid pitcher in 04. Since we gave up almost nothing, I’m marking that as a great trade.
2002- Scott Rolen, Doug Nickel and cash for Placido Polanco, Bud Smith and Mike Timlin: Bud Smith was the prospect in that deal and he flamed out. Timlin was a solid reliever, but nothing special. Polanco turned out to be the big part of that deal as he was great for the Phils and for the Tigers now. We gave away a lot, but we got arguably one of the best 3rd baseman of all time in his prime, and it completed the MV3 that helped us win 100+ games back to back years, and win the WS in 06.
2003- Jason Marquis, Ray King and Waino for JD Drew and Eli Marrero. A lot like the Rolen trade, we gave up some good talent but we definitely won this deal. Jason Marquis and Ray King were esential parts of that 3 year run from 04-06 and Wainwright helped restock our minor leagues and he is becoming one of the best pitchers in the league now.
2004- Larry Walker for Jason Burch and two PTBNL: we didn’t give up much and we got 1 1/2 very productive years of Larry Walker.
Bad trades:
2004: Mark Mulder for Dan Haren, Kiko Calero and Daric Barton: in the short term it looked good as nobody expect Haren to be as good as he is now, Kiko Calero was a replaceable releiver and Daric Barton was block by El Hombre. But Mulder had one good year with us, signed an extension and then was injured and terrible the rest of the way. Meanwhile, Haren is one of the best pitcher in the league and if we had him now we would probably be the favorites to win the division.
So really, Walt has only made 1 bad trade. Quietly he made a lot of really good trades that helped us during our dynasty seasons and right now.
by vivaelpujols on
Jan 14, 2009 3:02 PM EST
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Well done
I’m really tired of hearing about the Mulder trade as if that alone should be Walt’s legacy. I still remember the cheers and accolades for Walt at the time of the trade, including people saying that he showed the kind of cajones you need sometime to pull the trigger and get an All-Star….that the winner in a trade is always the team that gets teh best player, and that that player is Mulder….that Jocketty “finally gets his lefty power pitcher” (exact text from STLP-D, I think) and so forth. At the time, the trade made a lot of sense to a lot of people.
And what about that Bottenfeld for Jim Edmonds deal?
by siddfynch on
Jan 15, 2009 10:37 PM EST
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Do you see that club in Cincinnati competing any time soon?
They have a ton of young guys who have a lot of potential — yet Walt has signed a below average closer to a ridiculous contract, added several average to below average veteran players like Jerry Hairston Jr., Willy Taveras, Corey Patterson, Mike Lincoln, and Arthur Rhodes, and managed to get next to nothing for Adam Dunn when he moved him after the deadline last season through waivers.
IMO, he’s done NOTHING to make that team competitive with any of these moves. Can you imagine the backlash if Moz had signed Willy freaking Taveras? Especially when you play in a bandbox and Taveras’ only positive is his stolen bases and outfield range on defense — neither of which you need when you play 82 games in a popsicle stand. Does he think that the Reds have a legit shot at winning the division next year? If not, then why sign Arthur Rhodes or Mike Lincoln? If so, what is he smoking and can I get some of it?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on
Jan 16, 2009 9:06 AM EST
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Hah
Especially when you play in a bandbox and Taveras’ only positive is his stolen bases and outfield range on defense — neither of which you need when you play 82 games in a popsicle stand.
I laughed at that…hard. You, Mr. Stick, are getting a rec.
A note on Taveras: A few years back, Freddie Mitchell of the Eagles made some kind of bizarre catch on a ricochet scenario. I believe it was the year the Eagles went to the Super Bowl. Freddie Mitchell was horrible…like, thoroughly awful. However, he made that catch, and somehow, someway became famous. I think this was largely because he said this:
I’d like to thank my hands for being so good.
He also thought it was a good idea to badmouth the Patriots leading up to the Super Bowl, saying he didn’t know who their DB’s were and other such nonsense. After the game was over and T.O. had one of the gutsiest performances I’ve seen catching like 9 balls dragging a broken leg, Mitchell went on to say he didn’t think T.O. or McNabb wanted to win too badly because the Eagles didn’t throw him the ball much and targeted Owens instead. Belichick was later quoted saying “all he does is talk. He’s terrible, and you can print that. I was happy when he was in the game.”
Now, Taveras doesn’t run his mouth like that knucklehead did…BUT…I think his media exposure would quadruple if he were to say during a press conference that he liked to thank his legs for being so fast. After all, that’s really the only conceivable reason an impatient, powerless, poor fielding, worse-than-JuanPierre outfielder could hang around the league. Someone in Cinci should start this campaign just for poops-and-giggles.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on
Jan 16, 2009 4:18 PM EST
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I have that
2000- Jim Edmonds for Kent Bottenfield and Adam Kennedy: obviously a great trade. Kennedy was a good second baseman for a while with the Angels and Bottenfield flamed out after his big year in ’99.
by vivaelpujols on
Jan 16, 2009 2:02 PM EST
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Who said I was picking on Walt?
He did a very good job of building the Cardinal franchise into those great teams that we had in the early part of this decade. I never said he didn’t make good trades. What I did say is an absolute fact though, and you can’t dispute it: Part of the reason that the farm system was in such bad shape during his tenure was because he believed that you didn’t build a club from the farm system, you built a club by trading prospects for veterans. The team never went after big name talents early in the draft during Walt’s tenure except for two: J.D. Drew and Rick Ankiel. Walt isn’t here anymore because he didn’t get along with the new scouting director, who has re-built the Cardinal farm system in less than 3 years. Hmmm…I wonder why they didn’t get along?
I’m not complaining about the Mulder trade, I’m just saying that Moz wouldn’t have made the deal because scouts and pitching coaches in the organization were very bullish on Haren.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on
Jan 16, 2009 8:49 AM EST
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We got Pujols in 14th round
Also Moz probably wouldn’t have pulled off all of the great prospect for veterans trades that were necessary into creating the 100 win teams preceding the ws title. Under Walt we developed a lot of really good players in the minors. Whether or not we use those players in trades to acquire major league peices, or let them pan out an help us the major league level, is a case by case basis.
by vivaelpujols on
Jan 16, 2009 2:08 PM EST
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aside from the mulder trade
what prospects did Walt trade away that you would like to have had back?
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on
Jan 17, 2009 3:50 PM EST
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well
Edmonds was only a steal because he signed a 6 year deal in 2000 to keep him in st louis. He was traded to us in his final season before free agency by the angels and could of been just a 1 year fix if we didn’t sign him.
Cardwash - Cardinal, Washington fan (Washington???? Yeah, I know)
by cardwash on
Jan 14, 2009 4:22 AM EST
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It sure doesn't hurt
being in a division where 4 of our 5 competitors have underperformed.
Most and Least Cost-Effective Franchises 1998 — 2008
Rank…Team…( Act. – Exp. Wins)
#3……STL….( 6.3 )
#5……HOU…( 5.4 )
#16….CIN….( -0.2 )
#20….MIL….( -3.0 )
#23….CHC..( -3.7 )
#26….PIT….( -4.4 )
by sluggerbird on
Jan 14, 2009 10:17 AM EST
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I was sort of surprised to not see the marlins in there somewhere
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Jan 14, 2009 3:02 PM EST
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marlins problem is simple
1,When they had fire sales losing close to 100 games for 2 years after a firesale hurts totals. 2, part of that time frame was when the braves one the division every year, which they had never won. I guess its comes down to high highs, and low lows
"When the boogie man goes to sleep he checks his closet for Chuck Norris"
by elirock83 on
Jan 15, 2009 12:34 PM EST
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the Marlins do a remarkable job of rebuilding
They win the ws, trade everyone good for prospects. Have a couple of terrible seasons. Then the prospects start to pan out. Then they go for broke and sign a couple of impact veterans. If they win the ws then they trade them for more prospects, or pick up draft picks.
by vivaelpujols on
Jan 16, 2009 2:11 PM EST
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You hit nail on the head
First, Larussa/Duncan probably add 2-3 wins a year. Second, EL Hombre is a latter day Ruth in terms of impact. He always gives you a chance to win. Take those two things away and we fall to the middle of the pack.
The real eye-opener was Oakland. No doubt who is the cause of that great stat. Billy Beane keeps that team in contention ever year. So amazingly better than all the other GMs. Surprised anyone deals with the guy, but I suspect every GM thinks they are going to be the one that puts one over on Beane. Hope springs eternal.
Is he a Hall of Famer?
Just win
by The Duke on
Jan 17, 2009 3:25 PM EST
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