Community Projection: X-Wick
by DanUpBaby on Jan 12, 2009 7:22 AM EST
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PrintThere's not a lot going on—at least, I can't find a lot going on. So I figured we'd try round two of that Hallowed VEB Tradition, community projections. Last time out we pegged Khalil Greene at .263/.316/.449, which sounds plausible to me. This time we take a look at Ryan Ludwick, who started the year worrying about losing his roster spot to Juan "It would be excellent if Done and Gone rhymed" Gonzalez and ended it by slugging .591 and, just as unexpectedly, almost batting .300.
Thudwick, Dudwick, Uninspiring-but-adequate-wick—it's up to you to decide. As ever, post your results in comma-delimited format, for easy spreadsheet assimilation, set up as follows: AB,H,HR,RBI,AVG,OBP,SLG. (No spaces!) A properly formatted entry, stolen directly from Chuck's Khalil Greene writeup, would look like this: 466,116,16,64,.248,.304,.427. Remember to make sure your projected batting average squares up with your projected hits and at-bats. In case you have something against his Baseball Reference page, sponsored by our very own SleepyCA, here's his last three years:
YEAR
LG
AB
H
HR
RBI
AVG
OBP
SLG
2006
AAA
508
135
28
80
.266
.342
.506
2007
AAA
106
36
8
36
.340
.380
.642
2007
MLB
303
81
14
52
.267
.339
.479
2008
MLB
538
161
37
113
.299
.375
.591
Man, did he ever wreck AAA for that month in Memphis.
#
In other news: So dies the beautiful dream—I was hoping the Uehara signing made it more likely that Kenshin Kawakami, my pick for Pineiro Replacer 2k9, would also take a Mozeliak-Approved two-year deal. But you get the impression that if Frank Wren had failed to sign Kawakami, at any price, Braves fans in rent Smoltz jerseys and sackcloth would have set fire to his house.
Three years, and, according to NPB Tracker, a rumored $24 million—it's increasingly obvious that, for pitchers, at least, the Cardinals just aren't going there. I wouldn't be surprised if the Braves blew the doors off with that offer; as the free agent market is moving now, I don't see any other teams prepared to pay $8 million for Kawakami's age-36 season.
Speaking of which, anybody want in on this contract? I hear he's eager to move to second base.
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AB,H,HR,RBI,AVG,OBP,SLG
535,146,27,103,.273,.351,.505
If he is healthy I think he can do this, otherwise it might be a long year offensively for the Cards…
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
Studwick version 2.0
AB,H,HR,RBI,AVG,OBP,SLG
578,168,34,109,.291,.361,.547
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
Studwick, but DL-wick
The skillz are real, but the good health isn’t. Unfortunately, an injury-shortened season from Luddy:
355,99,21,72,.279,.355,.530
Other numbers just for the hell of it:
PA: 400
BB: 38
K: 96
HBP: 5
2B: 26
3B: 0
I hope I am wrong, but another fully healthy season seems unlikely
AB,H,HR,RBI,AVG,OBP,SLG
450,129,29,99,.287,.361,.527
Is it weird that I would rather the payroll be more like the Marlins than the Yankees?
studwick's....
opposite field skills / power, came along nicely late in 08.
kawasaki—expecting 3/24 as a bad signing.
young—poster boy for BA is highly overrated, and the tex FO is clueless.
I think it was the old front office that signed Young to the extension
They can’t be totally clueless since they asked him to move to 3B after winning a GG. Elvis Andrus is going to be an interesting player to watch — I can’t wait to follow him. He’s my favorite prospect, non-Cardinal category.
eventually yes,
one of the best prospects out there, i just don’t see him as ready yet. another reason for me to question the current FO.
you are very well versed in prospects, am i selling his current status short?
by ball in play on Jan 12, 2009 10:10 AM EST up reply actions
no
he’s still raw and from what I’ve read they’re prepping for a mid-season callup (potentially) rather than starting the season in the bigs. He’s ready defensively and should be an absolute wizard with the glove but the bat is going to be a question mark in the short term. His offensive skills in the long term are questionable as well (will he make enough contact? hit for even below-average power?).
He’s just someone I find incredibly fun and exciting to watch especially in the field.
ty
this is more of a scenario i would have expected next offseason from tex front office, when young loses his full no-trade rights, and andrus was more mlb ready. this would still leave tex a full year and a half window with limited no-trade rights, before youngs 10-and-5 rights kick in.
by ball in play on Jan 12, 2009 10:28 AM EST up reply actions
He still gets to list 8 Clubs
and he can’t be traded to any club but those clubs, so he still essentially has no-trade protection even in 2010/2011.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
yes, "limited"
young wants a trade, not tex. surely they don’t want to go down the a-rod trail again and eat a sizable amount of salary over 5 years.
if he doesn’t take 3B when penciled in, they rule 15 him. stop his pay and service years. aka, soriano / LF failed bluff.
he plays where they tell him, or they are out from under his contract until he does.
my hole point being, why would tex bring this on themselves for a prospect who’s not yet ready? just rent a 3B and let andrus get closer.
by ball in play on Jan 12, 2009 10:45 AM EST up reply actions
How good...
is he supposed to be defensively? I believe I once heard that he could be equivalent to Orlando Cabrera w/ the glove…think that’s accurate? Andrus or A Esobar? (Thanks in advance.)
I think he has the potential to be the best defensive SS in the league. Orlando Cabrera is probably a reasonable approximation (glancing at the 3 year fangraphs leaderboard he averaged +7.6 runs a year) with upside. +10 fielding at SS is an incredible value.
I’ve seen more of Andrus than I have of Escobar, whom I’ve seen only a handful of plays on, so I don’t know that I can make a real distinction. I know erik is a fan of Escobar and he also gets rave reviews defensively.
One thing about Andrus that’s fun is his speed. He stole 54 bases in AA last year (118 games). Now he got caught 16 times so he’s not necessarily a plus on the basepaths but he’s fast as hell.
Andrus and Escobar...
are two of the many reasons why I’m so excited to see the Cards being more aggressive in Latin America. While players like this are rare in the states and elsewhere, they can be so valuable to an MLB club – even before their bats completely develop.
AZ, the dude had more than 30 errors @ AA last years
are you sure he’s as good as you think he is?
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
He has incredible range and a good arm.
He’s not a finished product but when you watch him, he looks good fielding. But hey, he could be one of those guys who looks good in the field and racks up poor defensive stats. I don’t think that’ll be the case but it’s possible.
Everyone assumes he will regress
And everyone is probably right. But not I’m betting by not much.
AB,H,HR,RBI,AVG,OBP,SLG
480,135,35,90,.281,.360,.580
I think he plays a bit less, but that is due to the glut of outfielders we currently have meandering around the parent club. His power will increase a bit further, but RBIs will drop off, with Greene getting a lot more strikeouts and thus fewer people to drive in.
My slightly informed guess
475,132,24,84,.279,.364,.510
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
The Lud-line
AB,H,HR,RBI,AVG,OBP,SLG
568,159,33,111,.280,.347,.530
Maybe a bit too optimistic especially with the AB’s, but I think he’ll be healthy and won’t sit nearly as much as he did early last season. It’s surprising to me he ended up with as many AB’s as he did last year. My perception was probably more like 450-475.
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
Ludwick
AB,H,HR,RBI,AVG,OBP,SLG.
550,160,30,110,.290,.350,.520
I think his power numbers might regress a bit this season, but his AB’s should definitely go up.
As far as Michael Young goes, why doesn’t he just move to third base? it’s not like he’s in a contract year and it’s going to cost him money to not be a shortstop next season. Does he really think that there’s someone out there that wants to pay him that kind of cash to play SS until he’s 37 years old? He’s going to have to make the move at some point, either to 2B or the hot corner. I would say that if all his troubles are going to his left, that second base would be the best fit for him.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Maybe he just wants to bail
out of Texas (i.e., would like a ring before retirement) and this is a perfect opportunity.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Jan 12, 2009 10:02 AM EST up reply actions
From the way that article sounded
It sounds like he feels that he’s put a lot of time in at becoming an above average SS, which he isn’t, and that they should respect his wishes to stay at that position, even though it probably isn’t the best thing for the ballclub. He’s the anti-Crash Davis…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I got that impression too
The thing that’s tough for Texas is that his bat doesn’t really play at a corner and he’s probably not agile enough anymore to play a plus second base. Plus, Ian Kinsler is already there. So if they want to keep him he has to play third.
And then you have Young, who has apparently worked very hard at SS and believes he’s become decent at it (as you said, he’s not even close to that) so that should overrule everything. It doesn’t.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 12, 2009 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
Here's my projection
502,143,31,98,.285,.354,.540
slightly optimistic; I think he’ll be better than his CHONE projection and slightly above the Marcel. I expect Ludwick to continue his streaky Lankford-esque hitting.
thudwick
AB,H,HR,RBI,AVG,OBP,SLG
533,151,30,95,.283,.357,.530
I'll be the one overrating these Faberge' eggs, thank you very much!
Future Redbirds / PAH9
AB,H,HR,RBI,AVG,OBP,SLG
555,155,32,110,.280,.345,.520
He was the most pleasant surprise of all last season IMO. Hopefully he has another good year and moves from actual to perceived power bat!
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 12, 2009 10:01 AM EST reply actions
Big Thudwick
AB,H,HR,RBI,AVG,OBP,SLG
543,155,33,115,.288,.355,.505
check out my blog: Redbird Ramblings
Brad Penny or Bust...scratch that, I'll take odalis perez now, that's how bad it's gotten.
waiting for the 2009 season to begin and colby rasmus to patrol centerfield!
Not much dropoff
550,149,34,108,.271,.345,.550
by BTown Birds fan on Jan 12, 2009 10:34 AM EST reply actions
My take
550,157,34,123,.285,.386,.551
Mr consistency, even if a tad lower than 2008; more walks, less good pitches to hit.
GO CARDS!!!
the two avatars above this are interesting.
"I'm as nauseous as I've ever been. I have a terrible headache. My head is pounding. I feel like throwing up and I'm having trouble swallowing. And the beauty of it is, you want to feel like this every day." - Tony LaRussa
damn my image posting skills
because that was worthy of one of those one things
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
whats interesting about it?
They Look similar?
by bearcatcardfan on Jan 12, 2009 8:12 PM EST up reply actions
M.Young
If we could get them to eat some salary during the last three-four years of the deal, pass Kennedy off on them and then give them value in the form of Freese or Craig and an outfielder like Jay, I would definitely be willing to do it. The money has to be right though. I think slotting him in at second base would improve the team a significantly.
because his bat...
is better than league average at second and below league average at third.
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
I think this supports my statement...right?
.332>.331>.325
League avg 3B>M Young 2008>League Avg. 2B
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
but once again
if his reasoning is that he worked so hard to play ss, why would he want to play 3b OR 2b? the same reasoning he wants to avoid playing 3b works for 2nd too.
He apparently stated a..
willingness to move to 2nd.
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
Yeah
he said he’d be willing to move back to his natural position of 2B, a position he gave up for Alfonso Soriano.
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 12, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
i would seriously love having Young @ 2nd
IF The Price Is Right
he’d be a great addition to the club & he’d do an amazing job hitting 2nd in front of Albert.
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
Plus
if the Cards offered him SS in 2010, it would be open. Not petitioning for Young…just saying.
by DisplacedCardsFan on Jan 13, 2009 2:43 AM EST up reply actions
The pitching staff,
being the ground ball pitchers that they are, need a strong defense behind them. Michael Young is a defensive liability at SS.
Ouchwick
AB,H,HR,RBI,AVG,OBP,SLG
385,107,16,78,.278,.344,.496
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
Ludwick Projection
323,94,17,63,.291,.345,.511
I hope and pray that I am way off-base with this, but I fear that his wonderful season last year was the outlier in a career plagued with injury.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
hurtwick
475,140,27,94,.294,.350,.515
i forsee on extended stint on the dl, but when healthy, he will hurt the opposition
the kawakami conundrum
so, when they signed lohse, then decided to not offer arb to looper, made fuentes their number one target, etc., just what did they have in mind for filling out the rotation with any quality that did not carry a multi-year commitment?
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
unfortunately
looks like they were banking on piniero
by VolsnCards5 on Jan 12, 2009 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
Luddy
500,145,30,95,.290,.370,.560
I think he drops a little because pitchers are more careful with him this year but not by much.
Bullish on the Lud
I think he will stay healthy and the league showed no signs of adjusting to him last year as his July-Oct slashes were: .312/.391/.610/1.001
so I am going to go with: 570,174,39,117,.305,.382,.582
It will be interesting to see where he is slotted in the lineup. I still vote for #3 in front of Pujols batting cleaup, but I will probably be so stunned as to soil myself if TLR actually did that.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
+1
On the batting order
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 12, 2009 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
If we had a good leadoff hitter
i would like to see Pujols hit 2nd i love the possibiltiy of him getting that many more PA’s…based on career stats, the lineup toy suggests this lineup will score the most runs:
5.189 r/g
Skip
Pujols
Kennedy
Ludwick
Glaus
Ank
Greene
Pitch
Molina
it looks like many GiDP for Kennedy to me killing a lot of rally’s but like i said this is off of career stats and AK career numbers are better than his current talent level…
for the record i put my lineup of
Skip
Pujols
Ludwick
Glaus
ANk
Greene
Molina
Pitch
Kennedy
and got 5.139 r/g
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
I usually lack the patience to enter stuff into the lineup toy so I appreciate it when others do :) One note though, Skip’s MLB numbers have the benefit of being pumped up by platooning.
I would plug in
some numbers myself but I can’t get BR to load for some reason. Every time I’ve used the toy it’s shown the best lineup with Pujols fourth so your results are interesting. I wouldn’t mind those extra PAs with him batting 2nd though. I’ll try to run some numbers again later.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 12, 2009 2:29 PM EST up reply actions
Non of the top lineups had him hitting fourth...
several had Pujols leading off and two with him hitting 5th…i think having him hit clean up has some perks i just dont want to take away PA’s from him…
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
on a side not i used the 98-02 model
not the 59-04 model…neither had Pujols cleanup though…i never know which model to use and have never heard or read what the difference is besides the 98-02 is always higher…
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
Young: think about this lineup
1. Rasmus CF
2. Young 2B
3. Pujols 1B
4. Ludwick LF
5. Glaus 3B
6. Ankiel RF
7. Molina C
8. Pitcher
9. Greene SS
That’s a pretty scary lineup. I don’t care what our pitching situation is. With young in this lineup in front of Apu, we are good for 95 wins…bet on it!!
that does look nice
though Id put Greene at 7 and bump Molina and pitcher back.
not that i hate batting the pitcher 8th, just Greene isnt suited for that 9th spot, with his lack of OBP and his power
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Jan 12, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
yea
and apparently the rangers want a young 3rd baseman in return…which we have a couple of(one in freese who is ML ready)
if the rangers would eat some of that contract, i would not mind trying to work out a deal for him…we could trade some of our RH relief, OF, and 3B surplus…oh and they would have to take kennedy
I'm liking the idea of a...
Freese/Young swap. Do we have to throw in a Reliever? How much does Texas have to pay to make it work for us? I’m thinking making it a 5/$40 would be ideal, 5/$45 would be max. Means Texas pays $17-22mil or $3-$4.5 mil/season. I don’t see Texas taking on that burden, but we don’t really have any salaries to dump (other than Kennedy @ about $4mil). I like Freese, but with Wallace and Craig around somebody’s got to go eventually.
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
talking to myself here...
would Freese be as good at 2nd as Young? I’m thinking their bats are comparable. Maybe this makes no sense at all…
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
Young is a better hitter than Freese
and he’d be much better defensively at 2B than Freese would be.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I'm not arguing...
but those seem pretty definitive considering that Arlington is one of the MOST hitter friendly parks in all of baseball and Young carries a good/not great career OPS of .788 (.741 in 2008). Freese is supposed to be excellent defensively at third and Young is not so great at short. Freese also put up a GREAT line at Memphis last year. The last issue is obviously age 26? vs. 32. I’m not so sure that your concrete statements aren’t a little more like wet cement.
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
Freese put up a great line
at Memphis at age 25. He really wasn’t before last year, and still isn’t, considered much of a prospect. You would think that getting named PCL Player of the Year would bump him up on some lists, but it hasn’t. Neither Goldstein, Sickels, or BA have him in the Cardinals top 10 prospects, so that should say something. Are scouts wrong sometimes? Yes, but a general consensus on a player like this generally means he doesn’t project to have a high ceiling.
Excellent defensively at third — I think that’s probably a stretch. He’s got good hands, decent range, and does have a good arm, but he’s not going to set the world on fire at third. I would guess that he’s probably around Troy Glaus’ career average at third defensively. He’s not going to kill you, but he ain’t Scotty Rolen either.
Last, can you name a player that came up as a third baseman who successfully became a league average or better second baseman? I can’t. The only one I can think of that made any kind of switch like that would be Jeff Kent, and I think he was only at third to keep his bat in the lineup in the minors. You don’t need a great arm and quick hands to play at second base, but you need a lot of lateral range, especially to your right, and a lot of third baseman simply don’t have that.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
What I'm saying is
I think his bat would play well at second base, but I don’t think that his glove will translate well enough to put him there everyday.
I think that Young would be a better fit there and will get on base at a better rate than Freese would.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I haven't seen Freese play...
so I can’t attest to his ability to play 2nd. You may very well be right. 2nd requires significantly more range than 3rd, and I have no idea what range Freese has. Still, I’m not sure the upgrade from Freese to Young would be enough to justify $8-10 mil/season let alone $12mil.
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
I'm not petitioning for Young
I wouldn’t want to trade for him anyway. All I’m saying is that he’s much more likely to be a better hitter than Freese in 2009 and probably 2010. His contract is an albatross, so the Rangers are going to find it difficult to keep moving him.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
If they'd eat 40% of the contract
I’d have to atleast give it a second thought if we were moving him back to 2B.
But they won’t do that.
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 12, 2009 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
Freese
put up a .910 OPS in 510 AAA PAs last year. The MLE OPS is .764. Last year Young had a .741 OPS. I know he’s not really considered much of a prospect and I can’t see him at 2B, but I don’t think its quite fair to call Young a better hitter just yet.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 12, 2009 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
Really?
You’re comparing Freese’s best season in the minors to Young’s worst season in the majors, and the MLE is only .23 points off. Even if Freese were to come up and post that exact OPS, he’s going to be worse enough on defense at 2B to make things about even.
I personally don’t think that he’d put up that line against major league pitching, because Joe Mather, while being decent in 2008, didn’t exactly translate into the .800 OPS that his MLE on the AAA numbers would have been.
Is it because the team is looking at trying Allen Craig at 2B that people seem to think that Freese can do it? From what I’ve heard, Craig is a much better athlete than Freese and would be more able to make that shift.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Really, really
I said:
I can’t see him at 2B
I was just referring to your statement that “Young is a better hitter than Freese.” I never even insinuated that I thought Freese would be better at 2B.
As for the hitting comparison, I was only looking at the most recent numbers. Young’s OPS has dropped every year since 2005 while Freese excelled in AAA even though he skipped AA entirely. Freese is just entering his prime and Young is past his. I think that the comparison is fair enough.
On Joe Mather….Can you say small sample size? He had 147 PAs. His BABIP in those PAs was only .258. Here is my fanpost on the subject of Joe Mather. “Joe Mather didn’t perform up to his MLE in limited time in 2008” is a poor argument against David Freese.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 12, 2009 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
A couple of points..
- Young would be changing to the inferior league in terms of pitching. I would guess that he’d gain 5 points of OPS+ for that adjustment alone.
- Until you’ve seen what Freese can do at the MLB level, I don’t think you can say he’s as good as a guy with a career OPS+ of 102.
- Young’s 2005 was a career year. I think his true offensive talent level is where it’s been for most of his career, which is a 103-108 OPS+, more than enough for a middle infielder.
- 147 PA’s spread out over 4 months is an awfully small sample size. I do think Mather was a bit unlucky last season, and he did show some promise. I was simply saying that you can’t count on a hitter hitting his MLE in his first season in the big leagues, if ever. I would give you Andy Marte and Shawn Burroughs as examples. I think you have a much better idea about what Young will hit next year than you do Freese.
I’m not advocating trading for Young, but to say he’s not better than someone like Freese with the bat is betting a whole lot of marbles on Freese putting up better than his MLE next season were he to play a full season in the big leagues.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Fair enough
I just think that they would be at least comparable hitters next season because IMO Young is either going to keep regressing or if he improves it will be marginally. The more I look at Young the less I like him.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 12, 2009 4:41 PM EST up reply actions
Let's not forget change of venue...
that should at LEAST offset any gain from changing to the “weaker” league.
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
The more money they take back...
the more we have to sweeten the pot on our side to get him.
I don’t think a straight swap for Freese, when he’s not even in our top 5 prospects in most of the lists out there, gets it done. You’re probably going to have to throw in a pitching prospect or two (Boggs, Lynn, Todd, etc.) and possibly an outfielder like John Jay as well.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Then...
I don’t see how this makes sense for us.
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
Young is 32 years old
Young is owed 62M over the next 5 years
Young has a .331 and .343 2008 and career wOBA – 96/102 in OPS+ if you prefer
Young is 12 runs below average per year at SS per UZR.
I don’t think I’d take that contract for free, much less trade something for it.
$62M over the next five years
When I read that about his contract, I thought for certain it was a mistake (in typing, because it surely was a mistake on the part of the Rangers organization). That is positively mind-boggling.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Where are you getting $62M?
Cot’s has him at $80M over 5 years which and $15M of that is deferred. His 5 year deal doesn’t start until the 2009 season, so none of that contract has been paid.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
So, it's worse.
He’s getting paid a total of $80M for his Age 32, 33, 34, 35, and 36 seasons, when he has seen a downward trend in his offensive production over the course of the last three sesons.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
It’s MLBTR still says 62M. They had an login-required link so I linked to MLB contracts instead.
From a comment on that thread:
Yeah, it’s important to remember here that Heyman and Rosenthal both reported that Young’s salary was much less than the $80 extension he signed two years ago…
Somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 years and $60 million left on the contract… Making it $12 mil a year rather than 16…
Perhaps they’re referring to some kind of Rangers-declared salary relief?
I saw that too after I posted
Because I figured out where you got the link.
I wonder if they aren’t figuring in the amount that’s been deferred…that would bring the total down to $65M, but I don’t understand where the other $3M would be coming from.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
i read somewhere
that he had the deferred money and a signing bonus that would not count for his total remaining salary .. maybe it the signing bonus was $3M
It's deferred money
Buster Olney had a post concerning it today.
Young’s average annual salary is $11.8 million, and the total amount of deferred money in his deal will turn out to be $13.648 million, with payments beginning in 2016.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Slamalamajackadong-Wick
AB,H,HR,RBI,AVG,OBP,SLG
500,144,32,102,.288,.357,.550
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
Damn you
I was sure I would have the highest numbers for the Ludster ;~)
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
heh
I didn’t even notice your predictions until now…
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 12, 2009 3:19 PM EST up reply actions
I was sure mine were gonna be the highest
I might have tweaked them a bit higher if I would have seen this!
Projections just get me too excited!
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Thudwick
AB,H,HR,RBI,AVG,OBP,SLG
524,148,29,96,.282,.369,.537
"Statistics mean nothing to the individual"
"You are what you eat and you clearly went out and devoured a big fat guy"
Michael Young
This is a sad day for anyone involved with GG voting. They picked Young for the SS position in the AL, and he’s so great at that spot that the Rangers are dying to get him off of SS.
Derek Jeter is widely considered a below-average at-best fielder who is in no-way deserving of a SS Gold Glove Award. The voters made a wise choice by NOT picking him…but they blew that by picking a guy who was much WORSE.
UZR
Jeter: -.4
Young: -3.9
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 12, 2009 1:39 PM EST reply actions
I wonder how to tell them that they are wrong...
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 12, 2009 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
Man, I don't know
Maybe one of the producer/writers/Cousin Mose’s of “The Office” could start a blog that makes fun of horrible sports journalism.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 12, 2009 8:09 PM EST up reply actions
Just Plain Ludwick
517,146,33,121,.282,.363,.558
Yep, every Hall of Famer did something unique. Mike Schmidt played with his hat sideways. Roberto Clemente chewed other people's fingernails. Tris Speaker was Japanese. Lou Boudreau rode a dolphin into the batter's box. Nap Lajoie would only use John Wilkes Booth's dismembered leg as a bat. And he corked it. Johnny Mize was from the future. - FJM
Everybody's best Budwick?
518,150,31,90,.290,.361,.564
by Beware the Molinas on Jan 12, 2009 2:27 PM EST reply actions
Well
The 5% of sportswriters who did not vote Rickey into the Hall should be fired no questions asked. I just don’t get how anyone can vote that and keep their job. They’re idiots, plain and simple.
Not afraid to nitpick
despicable...
and Raines 22%…so very sad…maybe before his eligibility is up the more informed sports writers will be able to vote…
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
Raines compared to The Hawk
Absurd. Raines was head and shoulders above Dawson over the breadth of their careers. Andre should write a thank you letter to WGN.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Dawson compared to Rice
I don’t think either of them are HOFers and Dawson was probably the better player.
Rice played 1048 games at Fenway Park and hit .320/.374/.546/.920
Rice played 1041 games away from Fenway and hit .277/.330/.459/.789
You don’t see similar Fenway splits for guys like Ted Williams and Manny Ramirez.
Dawson’s career splits were pretty even and he OPSed .806 for his career in spite of playing 758 games in the mausoleum known as Stade Olymique in Montreal. When he finally got a chance to play in a hitter’s park late in his career he hit .310/.356/.551/.908 in Wrigley (some of those ABs are when he was younger).
Dawson was a better athlete than Rice until his knees were ruined from years on the turf and was always a better defender. Dawson stole over 300 bases as well.
Just to clear, my point is not that Andre Dawson should be in. My point is the writers made the correct decision on Rice for 14 consecutive years and f’ed it up this year.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
totally agree
Dawson was the better player
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 12, 2009 11:30 PM EST up reply actions
How the hell...
…can you justify that? I mean, the argument I hear is “Well, no one has been unanimous, so no one can be!”
That’s BULLSHIT! The only factor that should matter is whether or not the player deserves to be in…That’s a hard enough question in many cases…THAT’S IT! Unanimity is not a part of the voting instructions. It just isn’t. Period.
I mean, look at it this way…one day, Greg Maddux and Albert Pujols will be up for election, and neither will be unanimous. How can you justify one of those guys not deserve to be in? You can’t justify it. The stupidity and inflexibility of these people is unbelievable to me.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 12, 2009 8:16 PM EST up reply actions
If we're not going to go after Sheets or Lowe
which apparently we are not (which apparently pisses me off)(apparently more than a lot)) then I think Young could be a decent alternative to boost the lineup. Freese or Craig plus Skip and a pitcher. Slot Young in at 2B and leadoff and I think we have a solid lineup but are still a frontline pitcher not named Chris Carpenter away from the Cubs for the division but could make a run at the WC. The big problem for me is not going after Sheets. His market has bottomed out and he fits what we are looking for. 3 or less years around 15 million per.
Actually scratch that
I just started looking over Youngs line and did a 180. Steady declines in nearly every offensive category and 12 million per until the guys is 37? Nice contract mr daniels. Just give me Sheets and you can go about your day Mo.
Jim Rice elected to the HOF
means Jim Edmonds will be elected to the HOF. Thank you BBWA!
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 12, 2009 3:05 PM EST reply actions
if only that was true
we all know J Ed was not feared like Rice…
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
if Jed can play his last couple years in Boston or NY
he is a lock, no?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Rickey can’t believe that Rickey only got 94.8% too! Rickey thinks Rickey deserved better.
by astrostl on Jan 12, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I'm assuming
that is a direct quote from Mr. Henderson, or, as he is known to friends and himself, “Rickey.”
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
My favorite Ricky-ism
Is the story about him getting on the bus with the Mets and one of the younger players said he could sit wherever he wanted because he had tenure, to which Ricky said something to the effect of, “Tenure!? Ricky got 15 years in the big leagues.”
Priceless.
And I say England's greatest prime minister was Lord Palmerston.
by tangledbrett on Jan 12, 2009 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
I can't believe
Tim Raines only got something like 21% of the vote. That’s a travesty! He belongs, without a doubt, and the Hall is a little weaker w/ Rice, a fine player but no Hall of Famer, set to be inducted.
AB,H,HR,RBI,AVG,OBP,SLG
575,170,41,115,.296,.355,.600
yep, I think he takes it up a notch. Another star player, just hitting his stride a bit late in his career.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jan 12, 2009 3:06 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Lather, Rinse & Repeat
I think Ludwick might miss a little time but keep up the rates:
AB,H,HR,RBI,AVG,OBP,SLG
485,138,33,103,.285,.378,.567
More:
65 BB
36 2B
1 3B
7 HBP
Is
a .472 SLG and a .235 average even possible? I didn’t look anything up but that just seems crazy.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 12, 2009 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
Big Mac
While I was frustrated by the HOF traveshamockery today, I decided to browse McGwire’s numbers for the billionth time just to get an idea as to how absurd it it that he’s not in Cooperstown. I remember his final year in 2001 and how goofy it was. He would have those stretches where he’d have something like 10 hits 20 games, and all of them would be dingers.
Anyway the answer to your question is a resounding yes, as McGwire put up a line even more extreme than yours. .187/.316/.492 in 300 abs.
I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhauser gate. All those moments will be lost in time... like tears in rain... Time to die.
by lunchboxbomb on Jan 12, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
Possible?...
yes. It would require ~246 total bases and with 16 HR’s that would be something like 50 doubles and 13 triples and only 43 singles.
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
Haha
That’s what I was thinking, thanks. Possible…
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 12, 2009 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
of course...
There’s a player that did it last year:
Adam Dunn — .236/.386/.513
and a former Cardinal that did it as well:
Mark McGwire (2001) — .187/.316/.492
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Thing is
McGwire hit 29 HRs and Dunn hit 40. That projection was with 16 HRs.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 12, 2009 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
all you asked was whether a .235 avg and a .472 slugging were possible
there’s nothing in your post saying you have any constants for home runs, triples, doubles, or singles…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Should've been more specific
I was replying to a projection with those numbers, sorry about that.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 12, 2009 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
AVG measures hits, SLG linearly measures bases on hits. If all of your hits are singles, your AVG and SLG will be identical. If you subtract AVG from SLG you measure only extra bases, and that’s called “isolated power” (or ISO).
A .235/.300/.472 line is an ISO of .237. 2008’s #1 and #2 qualified leaders were Pujols and Ludwick with .296 and .292 :) Check out the career and single season ISO leaders at baseball-almanac.
Advanced stats like wOBA use linear weights and apply the actual calculated run value of singles, doubles, triples, homers, and also walks instead of just counting bases. It’s like OBP with properly-measured slugging percentage built into it.
Good explanation
My comment should have been worded more like “Is that line even possible with only 16HRs?” I realize that it’s statistically possible but I doubt anyone has ever done it.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 12, 2009 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
Not with only 16 HRs
I’m really regretting the way I worded that question. The line I was referring to had him down for 16 HRs.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Jan 13, 2009 10:44 AM EST up reply actions
Ludwick 2009 Season
AB,H,HR,RBI,AVG,OBP,SLG
565,158,44,112,.280,.355,.597
OT: I think I am in love
Just got a new Espresso machine off Craigslist for only $200 bucks. It is a Rancilio Silvia and seems to be in good condition. The Tyranny of the coffee house is over!!
Stat Whore
and welcome to the tyranny of cafeine!
my work is getting some new fancy coffee machines soon that will supply us with free drugs
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 12, 2009 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
WOW
I need to quit reading so quickly. At first glance I thought you referenced the tranny of cafeine. And I was thinking of coffee that dressed up at nights as a cup of tea. Maybe its late and I should get to bed!
funny you should mention that
I was thinking I should crash also. btw, I spelled caffeine wrong, sorry to mislead you on that
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 13, 2009 1:39 AM EST up reply actions
also
are you the civil version of TOLAXOR?
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 13, 2009 1:40 AM EST up reply actions
LOL
I thought the same thing when I saw the ALL CAPS screen name.
Great Post
Sorry, I don’t know if this has been linked to yet, but there is a new sabr Cards blog entitled “Fungoes” that my friend just emailed to me. There is a very intriguing post over there on how the Cards’ strategy of hocking LOOGYs at the ’pen and seeing who sticks will situate the left-handed side of the bullpen compared to last year using projected pitching runs created.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
The Goold Birdland Post which was the inspiration for the Fungoes post
…has this really interesting tidbit.
The Cardinals used inherited runners as one guide — and Miller was the best free-agent reliever available at leaving runners stranded — and they also had a specific asset they wanted to add to the bullpen. Duncan wanted a pitcher who could come in and "shut down" a team’s best lefthanded hitter.
As per usual with Mr. Goold, the whole post is interesting and worth a gander.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
is "not letting inherited runners score" a skill?
Just had a sudden sinking feeling.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
Does it repeat
from year-to-year? I would think not, unless a guy had a very high K rate.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
My mistake
Now, I’m upset with myself for not discovering it sooner, and with my friend telling me it is “new.”
Correction: “new to me”
If it is new to you too, I highly recommend it.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Ludwick
550,155,32,105,.282,.370,.540
Felipe Lopez - next year's Joel Pineiro (on another team, thank you Mo!)
550,160,29,96,.291,.358,.510
"I'm as nauseous as I've ever been. I have a terrible headache. My head is pounding. I feel like throwing up and I'm having trouble swallowing. And the beauty of it is, you want to feel like this every day." - Tony LaRussa
you think he go from 37 HR to 29?
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 12, 2009 11:32 PM EST up reply actions
yes
he’s definitely capable of maintaining his production from 2008, but i guess i’m not completely ready to simply assume that he will.
but, hell, i don’t know. i spent less than five minutes coming up with that.
"I'm as nauseous as I've ever been. I have a terrible headache. My head is pounding. I feel like throwing up and I'm having trouble swallowing. And the beauty of it is, you want to feel like this every day." - Tony LaRussa
that ok
I just think maybe he needs to get more credit, I think his power is for real and that he can at least stay in the mid 30 home run range, if not improve upon last season.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 13, 2009 1:41 AM EST up reply actions
I think his power is legit...
however, I think he’s going to be pitched to more carefully.
Felipe Lopez - next year's Joel Pineiro (on another team, thank you Mo!)
warlock of bludgeonwick
512,150,33,111,.293,.375,.540
by bigchieftootiemontana on Jan 12, 2009 8:30 PM EST reply actions
me think these numbers are very conservative
especially after what we saw for Khalil Greene
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 12, 2009 11:33 PM EST reply actions
I disagree somewhat that they're conservative, given his injury history and relatively limited
track record (almost half of his MLB at bats came last year). But I would be soooooo happy to be proved wrong. In fact, nothing would make me happier, except to be proved wrong about my nagging skepticism that we’re not going to get a significant contribution from Carp this year. (I thought that about Mulder last year and was burned badly, although the case for Carp certainly looks stronger…please…?)
Speaking of Ludwick’s injuries, SleepyCA mentioned earlier that they weren’t the chronic/degenerative type of problems, but freak injuries, which provides some hope. But I have to confess I’m fairly ignorant of his injury history, and I’m not sure where to look. Would any kind soul be willing to provide a run-down or a lead to where one could be found?
And finally, props to Sleepy for sponsoring Ludwick’s BR page. Keep on Sleepin’ on, Sleepy!
by BTown Birds fan on Jan 12, 2009 11:51 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
at least he’s not brittle, but maybe a little bit injury prone. hopefully that bad luck is behind him.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 13, 2009 1:42 AM EST up reply actions
Mine might be a new high in OPS...
oh well. I went low on Greene, comparatively. I guess I’ll be high on Luddy.
As a Cardinal fan living in DFW 10+ years....
I wish there was a way to make a trade with the Rangers for MY. He doesn’t have great range or a lot of power, but he is a goood baseball player. He’d look great in a Cards uni at 2B and in the 2 hole in the lineup. Cardinal fans would love him.
I think he’s led the AL in hits w/ RISP the last several years, goes the other way with the bat really well, never on the DL (that I recall) and he played half the last year with a broken finger and the last 6 weeks with 2 broken fingers.
Rangers need a 3B, starting and bullpen pitching and might be interested in an OF, though how much the Cards had to give would be directly proportional to how much of the 5 year/$62 Mil TX would eat. In addition to MY, word is they might part with Millwood or Padilla, who are in the last years of their contracts.
Probably crazy talk, but I wish there was a way to make it work…..
i watch the Rangers a lot, and i couldn't agree more
Young in a Cardinal uniform would be a great thing
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
Ludwick
510,148,33,110,.290,.390,.560
He bats cleanup and rakes.
Sign someone who can pitch, then let this team play.
by IL and StL Fan on Jan 13, 2009 12:42 AM EST reply actions
yeah
I hope he just gets plugged into the cleanup spot, or switch with pujols
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 13, 2009 1:44 AM EST up reply actions
Jack-A-DongWick
550,154,31,98,.280,.350,.525
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
thats not very many dongs for Jack-A-Dong-Wick
by bearcatcardfan on Jan 13, 2009 2:10 AM EST up reply actions
with TLR as his manager, and Baby Dunk on the roster
sadly, his playing time will go down & with that his HR #’s
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
tlr will let him start in april this year
so he’ll get more PA’s. but he’ll get pitched around a bit more, too. It’s kind of amazing he only got 3 IBB’s last year. i think the OPS is a bit high, but I can’t see his OBP falling much unless his BABIP falls through the floor and his slugging is already dropping almost 50 points…
595,168,32,111,0.282,0.372,0.548
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
just finished collating the projections
My first experience in comma-delimiting, so I was pleased to see I didn’t have anybody projecting him to bat 112 with .290 RBI.
My projection, for transparency purposes: 540,150,29,81,.278,.348,.525
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