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New Year's Value

In light of the Aaron Miles signing by the Cubs I thought it was a pretty good time to talk about value. The Cubs, the team who stole Jason Marquis from our clutches just a few short years ago, swept in yesterday and stole plucky little Aaron Miles for the next 2 years, paying him nearly $5 M for his services. In the link above, R.J. Anderson says it better than I could ever hope to that the amount given to Miles is pretty surprising. This is a guy who has been worth more than $600K exactly 1 time in his career. Fortunately for Scrappy-Do, it was last year. Miles will now be replaced by one of our many internal candidates who will get paid about $2 M LESS than Miles will for roughly the same production. Bye, Aaron. Thanks for the memories.

About 2 months ago, I attempted to evaluate the value provided to the team by the players during the '08 season. I concluded that Pujols and Ludwick (to no one's surprise) were the 2 most valuable players on the team b/c they provided the most production beyond what they were paid by the team. Now, there was a reasonable discussion about my using THT's numbers rather than some other numbers (and thank you fangraphs for now making these numbers much easier to find) but each of them was worth at least $15 M above and beyond their respective salaries.

It's doubtful that Ludwick will be quite so valuable this year. For one thing, he'll be paid a couple million dollars more due to his arbitration-eligibility but it's also likely that his production in '09 won't be quite as good as it was in '08. Pujols, of course, will be tremendously valuable as long as he stays on the field -- particularly since he's signed to a ridiculously low $16 M in '09. As long as he remains on the field, he'll be worth probably twice what he's paid.

I wanted to open up today's post to discuss who you think will be the most valuable Cardinal in 2009. I'm defining "valuable" here not as "best" b/c we simply know that answer and that would create a very boring thread. "Valuable", as I'm defining it here, means production above and beyond what they'll be paid. Sure, Albert will be the team's best player (God help us if he isn't) but he'll also be our most expensive player. While it's tempting for me to go w/ Albert anyway (fangraphs has him worth more than $40 M, while being paid just $15 or so last season), I'm going to go w/ Adam Wainwright this year.

The wagonmaker stands to make just $2.6 M in 2009 and I think he'll be worth somewhere in the neighborhood of 4 wins -- maybe 4.5. That would put his production worth roughly $20 M so his value to the team would be in the vicinity of $17.5 M. Albert may still be worth more but selecting him is too boring.

Honorable mention goes to Chris Perez, who'll earn the minimum and could be worth roughly 3 wins or so. That'd put him at a value to the team of just less than $15 M. So I'm going w/ Wainwright to rebound and have an excellent season while providing tremendous value to the team. Who's your favorite?

BTW, Happy new year to all!

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I was thinking on this topic a couple of days ago. If you exclude Albert and Luddy, Waino shines through. Easy.

K-Mac would be my pick out of the pitchers. He’s clearly cheap and could end up in the rotation, or at worst handling several innings in relief.

Still bullish on Mather, but he’ll need some AB before I could see any real impact.

Guy who worries me the most? Glaus. He has to have a damn good year to be well over his contract price for the season, and even more so when you consider what Freese could put in at a steep discount. I do think he’ll be fine this year (and quite possibly better than last year) but since we’re looking at value over price, he’s my concern.

Yes, more of a concern than Joel and Carp doesn’t exist

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Jan 1, 2009 8:24 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Long list

This team with some added starting pitching has the tools to compete this year so go out and sign Ben Sheets already my god. Obviously if Perez doesn’t work out it could be crushing, but I love his stuff as long as he doesn’t consistently flake out on his control he’s a huge advantage for us. Colby if he can play half as good as he’s hyped he could be a real nice piece in the offense as well. I think that Greene trade could be huge for us though, if he can regain form what an upgrade he is at SS. I’m thinking he really needs to play well this year, he’s motivated to do so and we really need him to have a good year this year so I think he’ll step up for the cards in 09.

by ghostofjimlindeman on Jan 1, 2009 9:19 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Most fun to watch

Better question who is the most fun to watch? Albert, Colby, Ankiel, Perez, Motte, Wainwright, (healthy Carp) and I hope at some point soon, The Walrus!!

by ghostofjimlindeman on Jan 1, 2009 9:24 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

if you dont coutn pujols

its def ankiel for the arm alone, and those crazy hack he takes at the plate

i take your signatures and use them as away messages

by ihavebadknees on Jan 1, 2009 1:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Gotta agree with Chuck...

Waino has the best track record of the “lower-paid” Cardinals; if Chris Perez finds consistency with his slider, he could become the biggest bargain. Or maybe Motte! (Can he throw a split-finger?)

So we didn’t get Fuentes, and Miles got two years with the Cubs; how much ya wanna bet we’re happy about that later this summer?

As for Brett Wallace, will his at-bat music include the immortal “Goo Goo G’Joob!”? (grin)

"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra

by The Ol Goaler on Jan 1, 2009 10:37 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

"Later this summer?"

I’m happy about it now. I read the article in the P-D this morning, and it makes better sense if you read all Mo’s comments in a sarcastic voice. “We’re really sorry we weren’t able to sign Aaron. And it’s too bad we couldn’t get Fuentes. We’re really upset.”

by Archaeopteryx on Jan 1, 2009 10:43 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

+1.

that was priceless.

they can't play baseball, they don't wear sweaters, they're not good dancers, they don't play drums

by SleepyCA on Jan 2, 2009 2:24 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

For what the Angels paid for Fuentes.....

He would have been good in STL.

"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."

by SoonerfanTU on Jan 1, 2009 12:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

but then he would have cost more

to play in St. Louis as Anaheim was his declared ‘first choice". And IMO he wasn’t worth sacrificing a first round pick for a position that Young Pitcher, Motte or Kinney could fill much cheaper.

by nmstar on Jan 1, 2009 12:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The question is.....

Can they do it as well.

Obviously TLR, Duncan, and at least some of the front office don’t believe so.

"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."

by SoonerfanTU on Jan 1, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He has a vesting option on IP (55 innings) to get 9m on a 3rd year.

Health wasn’t an issue, so it could be an ineffective 55 innings for all that matters.

Angels gave away a first round pick, but it was low in the order and if I recall correctly they have two picks headed their way anyways (for Tex and KRod).

He’s averaged around 65 or so innings the past 4 years, so you may as well call this a 3 year deal, which has been beaten to death as a bad idea.

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Jan 1, 2009 12:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually

I read that the option vests with 55 games finished in 2010, not just pitched. Fuentes hasn’t cracked the 55 games finished mark since ‘06, and if he’s ineffective in 2010, you can bet the Angelinos will make sure he doesn’t finish 55 games.

There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK

by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jan 1, 2009 1:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Anyone else here sad

to see Miles go? I mean, I realize that value, statistics, sabermetrics, and all else rational says that it’s not a big loss, but dang it, I enjoyed watching him play. And he was gritty. Where’s the grit going to come from in ’09? Who is the next potential member of the PLRS club.

I think that was the acronym… for the life of me I can’t find that post from a couple months back. Anyway, I’ll be glad if his utility replacement is as fun to watch and comment on (and poke good natured fun at).

Baseball Fever.... Catch it!

by skcabrozar on Jan 1, 2009 10:41 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Joe Thurston can and will replace Miles next season

I heard he is Fast, Good defensively, and decent with that bat, I heard he is a great club house guy.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 1, 2009 11:17 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Here you go...

GLRS…(Or GLJO as tom s. suggests)

And for some reason I can’t figure out how to make the condensed link to work…
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2008/12/4/678625/the-league-of-glrs-the-sec

The thought that I have is that the season is over. And that everybody in the game; a fan, a coach, a player, a manager, front office, scouts...surrender. They say, "that's enough," especially after a game like this. But then Christmas comes, New Years, contracts are signed, trades are made, free agents are signed; and then baseball, like the rose beneath the April snow will force it's way to the front again. And we'll have the fever once more.
- The immortal Jack Buck

by Jack618 on Jan 1, 2009 1:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Please remove the "to"

Idiot.

The thought that I have is that the season is over. And that everybody in the game; a fan, a coach, a player, a manager, front office, scouts...surrender. They say, "that's enough," especially after a game like this. But then Christmas comes, New Years, contracts are signed, trades are made, free agents are signed; and then baseball, like the rose beneath the April snow will force it's way to the front again. And we'll have the fever once more.
- The immortal Jack Buck

by Jack618 on Jan 1, 2009 1:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i will miss the scrappy guy

but its most likely for the best…hopefully he sucks next year

i take your signatures and use them as away messages

by ihavebadknees on Jan 1, 2009 1:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah

I’m always a little sad to see the former players go elsewhere, but it’s worse when they go to the Central and especially the Cubs since I can’t really root for their success.

Didn’t surprise me that Miles’ “luck” factor was high because some of his hits were funny. Slicing, opposite field, slow-moving frisbees that would bounce a couple times and still make it through the infield. Then there was the walk-off grand slam, and his pitching. Also, he was a gritty part of the only WS championship team in my fandom.

So yeah, it’ll be nice if somebody else steps in and fills his shoes or outperforms him, but until then I’m not assuming that they will.

by phesto on Jan 1, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

nope. couldn't care less. glad the flubs wasted the coin

even happier TLR has had one of his toys taken away

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Jan 1, 2009 8:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm entertained by shoulderlicker

as much as miles

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 2, 2009 12:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Reading the Cubs blogs

They seem to like the signing of Miles. I know I personally would of Fing lost it if we signed Miles to a 2 Year/$5M contract than they traded Mark DeRosa! Mark DeRosa is one of my favorite ball players and if not the best utility ball player in baseball right now. He has been worth $43.9 Million the last 3 years while only getting paid $8.3M over that time. While all they got for him were 3 middling prospects to add depth. These are the exact moves that destroy franchises.

I for one am starting to get tired of hearing people bitch about Moz not making a move. I hope Moz is waiting for a high value and under valued asset to be presented to him.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 1, 2009 11:15 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I agree completely

I’m wondering if its a leadup to another move or not, but why would you not get a better return for a player of value like DeRosa, I think highly of the guy too. He would be a great fit for any team, but they gave the job to Miles now. I love the move, it allows us to take a look at some of the middle infielder’s in the minors and save some money here to make that ever special trading deadline move for our “Big Bat”.

by from First to Third on Jan 1, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

None of the Prospects the Cubs got were even

John Sickels didn’t rate any of the prospects the Cubs got even in the top 28 of the Indians prospects plus DeRosa is a Type A free agent which he is likely to maintain. The DeRosa Trade with Miles Signing could be the worst move so far in baseball this offseason.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 1, 2009 1:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

the move could only make sense if....

The Cubs would then trade for Roberts, filling the vacated 2B hole

by Czechguardsman on Jan 1, 2009 1:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If we don't outbid the Cubs for Roberts I don't know what I'd do

Our 3rd tier prospects are as good as anyone but Vitters in their system.

Not afraid to nitpick

by joker24 on Jan 1, 2009 1:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No but I don't think Roberts would come cheap

He seems to be the face of the Organization till Vitters is clicking. I could see him move mid season though.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 1, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The Cubs trading DeRosa for those pitchers makes zero sense...

If I was a Cubs fan I would be beating down Jim Hendry’s door. DeRosa was the only Cub who did any hitting whatsoever last year in the postseason and he gets moved for pitchers who will be lucky to stick as the 7th guy in the pen. DeRosa hit 21Hrs and 89RBIs while playing primarily 2B. What kind of premium is on 2Bs of his offensive caliber. What other 2Bs besides Kinsler, Utley, and possibly Lopez came close to that power production last year.

As a Cardinal fan, I’m ecstatic DeRosa is gone. He is a Cardinal killer and was the last guy I wanted to see at the plate when we played them. Unless this is a setup for a bigger deal the likes of which we aren’t yet aware, the Cubs shot themselves in the foot.

I would take DeRosa over Roberts straight up if offered a choice. Whoever the Cubs can get to fill their 2B hole will be a dropoff.

Zambrano had 80 fewer strikeouts and 11 fewer decisions in 2008; it seemed to me that the N.L. had him figured out until he threw that no-hitter against Houston. And last year he noticably put on weight and his conditioing was atrocious. Anybody else see the man-boobs? Derek Lee is on a precipitous decline and his powerstroke is just about gone. And who knows if Harden can stay healthy or Dumpster can repeat his performance last year? Finally, the Cubs let Wood walk and brought in Kevin Gregg to replace him(8th inning or closer?) You heard it here first: the Cubs will be lucky to win 87 games.

by Czechguardsman on Jan 1, 2009 6:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He traded

Cubs give up:
Mark DeRosa
Jason Marquis

Cubs get:
Milton Bradley
Aaron Miles
Luis Vizcaino
3 minor league pitching prospects

That’s why he did it. Clear money to make those moves.

by Hardcore Legend on Jan 1, 2009 6:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The Cubs haven't signed Bradley yet...

And if they did, that would be ok by me. With Soraino in left and Bradley in right, that would be an awful defensive outfield; bloop singles and doubles falling everywhere. And its not like Bradley is anything special. He’s a clubhouse cancer who had one good year last year in a hitters ballpark and even there he missed time and only hit 22 HRS. Bradley had potential for several years but bounced around and did nothing except fight with umpires and get freak injuries. He’s actually kind of a similar hitter to Soriano and I can see him going 0 – 15 in his first NLDS.

And are the Cubs going to start 2008 with Miles or Fontenot as their 2B?

by Czechguardsman on Jan 1, 2009 7:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Bradley is the opposite hitter of soriano

not really actually, but soriano is a hacker bradley is very patient and draws a lot of walks. Also you can expect bradley to miss about half of the games so I wouldn’t get him. Adam dunn is more consistant and more durable than bradley. They should get him instead, although an outfield with dunn and soriano would be terrible.

by vivaelpujols on Jan 1, 2009 7:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Bradley seems like the kind of player the Cubs would be attracted to...

Lets just hope the 1997 -2007 Milton Bradley shows up, instead of the Bradley who was healthy for 2/3rds of 2008.

by Czechguardsman on Jan 1, 2009 8:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

2008 was a Fluke

His BABIP was astronomically high .392, highest in baseball. Sustained by also very high Line Drive % of 24.6, 2nd highest in baseball behind Ludwicks even more ridiculous 28.1 LD%

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 1, 2009 8:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ludwick is tough to project

Even as good as Ludwick was last year he still was unlucky in relation to his high LD. He had the highest LD in baseball and the lowest Ground Ball% in baseball with 27.4% (Lg Avg is 43.2%). I am not exactly sure what to make of these numbers but his power is very much for real.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 1, 2009 9:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

he changed his swing

and that’s why he hits so many line drives & so few ground balls. if he keeps that swing he should continue what he started last season.

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Jan 1, 2009 9:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

no

you should expect negative regression toward the MLB average LD%. That’s not a sustainable rate.

by azruavatar on Jan 1, 2009 9:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

As of now, the 2008 offseason is the window of opportunity...

in which they can get the biggest haul for moving Ludwick. Who is to say(and I hope this doesnt happen), that in 2009 he drops to something like .260/14/65. I think personally that Ludwick will only slightly regress in 2009, but next offseason, he’ll be blocking guys like Mather and Daryl Jones.

Ludwick put up good power numbers in his 2007 campaign with STL, so 2008 wasn’t totally a one year flare up. I wouldn’t be opposed to moving him depending on how good of a MIF/SP we brought back.

by Czechguardsman on Jan 1, 2009 10:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No, next off season is much better

This off season market is bloated with OFer’s while the only top prize next season will be Holliday. Plus, we still have 3 more years of Ludwick below average cost. If he can maintain another healthy year than his value will increase double. A lot of teams think he was just a fluke not worth to take a risk on. He holds more value to the Cardinals.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 1, 2009 10:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 2, 2009 12:20 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i know! come on robot!

doesn’t that count for something???? throw me a frickin bone!!

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Jan 2, 2009 12:45 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm loving the nonmoves.

We put a price on KRod and Fuentes and we stuck by them. I wouldn’t have cared much for either signing personally, but I can see the case for it. Get someone for the 9th and then work around that. Worked well for the Phillies when they brought in Lidge and had fireballers roaming in setup/firehose roles.

We checked in on Holliday, got a price, walked away. We checked in on Johnson, wanted Escobar, walked away. We didn’t pay for Miles.

I would much rather have a series of nonmoves then to appease by having a bunch of idiotic/ignorant signings.

The moves we have done I’ve liked as well. Greene has upside and didn’t cost much. Bench MI shouldn’t be costly either. Bullpen specialist roles not named closer should be cheap and battled between all of the glut we’ve picked up along the way. I love picking up several lefties and taking cream of crop into the season.

I was actually giddy yesterday by the nonmoves and for a 6’4’’ 250# guy, that’s just awkward.

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Jan 1, 2009 1:00 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I still think we should sign one Solid LOOGY

I like how one LOOGY should be for tryouts and the other with great numbers from the left side that can occasionally get out righties.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 1, 2009 1:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't mind adding more depth

but we have that Loogy already.

KMac, he just pitches from the wrong side of the body, but his LHB splits are loogy worthy and he’s ok on righties.

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Jan 1, 2009 1:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

137 plate appearances is still a small sample size.
plus i don’t like thinking of mcclellan as a lefty specialist when he could be used for much more than that.

"I'm as nauseous as I've ever been. I have a terrible headache. My head is pounding. I feel like throwing up and I'm having trouble swallowing. And the beauty of it is, you want to feel like this every day." - Tony LaRussa

by adiueordie on Jan 1, 2009 4:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He should be a starter

He sure as hell would be bettter than Piniero.

by vivaelpujols on Jan 1, 2009 6:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think he would already have to be training to be a starter

I think relievers have different off season workout programs than starters. Regardless if McClellan was a starter he would most likely have to start in Memphis to get worked up for it.

I think he would be served best with another year in the bullpen where he can prove he can stay strong an entire season and increase his IP load. Remember how much he tailed off in the second half? If he can prove that he can stay strong the entire season THAN I think it might be a good idea to shift him to a starters role. By that time we should have his replacement in Samuels, Salas, or Todd.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 1, 2009 6:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah

if he doesn’t get hurt… then we wouldn’t have a guy in the bullpen or starting

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 2, 2009 12:35 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

well...i have three cubs fans

and they are livid…someone made the point yesterday that the cubs lost a lot of versatility…that is exactly what my friends were so mad about

by VolsnCards5 on Jan 1, 2009 1:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You didn't include the scrap factor, Chuck

that’s worth at least an extra two mil. Doi!

Hyperventilating prospect geek/Overrated Faberge egg lover
Future Redbirds

by erik on Jan 1, 2009 11:56 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I think it's interesting

that chuckb used the word “rebound” for Wainwright after the season (albeit shortened) he had in 2008. I hope you’re only referring to his injury, and not the quality of his pitching.

There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK

by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Jan 1, 2009 1:48 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

The Miles deal is freaking horrible.

It’s almost never a good idea to overpay for someone when the job description includes sitting on the bench most days.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 1, 2009 1:48 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

With combination of the DeRosa trade

Can you think of a worst off season move yet? Maybe Ibanez?

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 1, 2009 1:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Signing Farnsworth is pretty bad.

What am I missing from this deal though?

DeRosa is a ~3 WAR player, you’re paying him 5 million, he plays second and occasionally elsewhere. Okay, you have Mike Fontenot who isn’t quite that good, but you’re looking to free up some cash so you’ll deal DeRosa for a few arms and play Fontenot.

Now you need a utility fielder, and rather than play Ronny Cedeno (cheap, just as good as Miles, at worst) you pay Aaron Miles, coming off of a career year, almost half of what you were paying DeRosa?

Heck, even if you deal Fontenot or Cedeno, you can sign guys like Ray Olmedo or Andy Cannizaro who are just as good as Miles and probably have better gloves. I just don’t understand how a team shedding cash can spend decent money on a generic player. It’s like they put more weight into “razzing the Cards” than “getting a good player”.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 1, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Farnsworth

was bad, but the Royals weren’t going to contend anyway. The DeRosa trade is TERRIBLE, as is the Ibanez signing. Not sure which one is worse, but I’m glad the Cardinals had nothing to do with either one.

by spants on Jan 1, 2009 10:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'll be shocked if the marlins don't turn him into a starter

been expecting that since the trade went down. The value-over-replacement-1B for a league-average-starter→jacobs will be “plus” a bunch.

Even using the dude as a reliever, the marlins win that trade…

still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.

by SleepyCA on Jan 2, 2009 2:36 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I just don't understand why...

they’re going to block B. Butler, Shealy, and Ka’ailhue at 1B with Mike Jacobs?

And then they send the 2nd head of the Ramirez/Nunez/Soria 3 head monster, Ramirez, to Boston for Coco Crisp?

And then sign Farnsworth to set up soria. Jeez.

by Czechguardsman on Jan 2, 2009 5:51 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

after watching our bullpen during parts of last season

I think relievers can have quite the impact

Getting pissed off when people use stats on a extremely stat friendly sight makes since, alot of cents

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Jan 2, 2009 12:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I would argue the fact that they weren't going to compete is a reason to not waste money on Farnsworth.

Plus, what happened to the ideology that Moore can create cheap bullpens, hence why he felt comfortable dealing Nunez and Ramirez?

Ibanez is probably worse. Phillies don’t offer Burrell arbitration and sign someone older, less talented, and who costs a first round pick.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 2, 2009 3:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

as soon as i saw the direction of the post

i was thinking perez…i just love the idea of sticking a young guy in at the end of the game and watching him dominate

i take your signatures and use them as away messages

by ihavebadknees on Jan 1, 2009 1:54 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

If you're looking strictly at value

I think that both Greene and Ankiel will be huge ++ players this year. Both are in the last year of a contract, and both want to enhance their free agency value. Ankiel should have a monster season and be well above his value (assuming health stands up).

by JWO on Jan 1, 2009 2:00 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Greene could be,

but his highest value season was in 2007 at $10.8M. If I’m right, he is owed $6.5M next year so even if he repeated his best-ever season in terms of value, he would only be worth $4.3M in excess to the team. Not that I would complain, I’m just saying that Greene probably isn’t going to be worth that much more than we’re paying him.

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Jan 1, 2009 2:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

To answer the question....

I do think that Chris Perez is the most likely to provide production beyond his paycheck. I really do rate him slightly ahead of Rasmus on the prospect list and think he could be something special soon.
My second choice, if not traded, is Ankiel. I don’t think he’ll have a long career but I see a couple of MVP like years in his future.
My long shot for most bang for the buck, and this relates to the Miles departure, is Brian Barden. With Miles and Lopez gone he should get a real shot at the utility infielder job. He supposedly has a great glove at second,short and third and some pop in the bat. Given Kennedy’s two year quest to lose the 2b starting job Barden could even end up as the starter there.

by easy on Jan 1, 2009 5:25 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Old Faithfull

I think Pujols will once again out perform his paycheck at a large gap than anyone else on the team

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 1, 2009 5:42 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I think it will be Molina

He may regress a little with the bat, but his defense will give him a ton of value. He had a bad defensive year by his standards and was still worth about 11 mil.

by vivaelpujols on Jan 1, 2009 6:15 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Ankiel, Motte, Perez, Freese

and Wainwright as #1

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 2, 2009 12:44 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

dark-horse candidate

colby rasmus. obviously would only happen if he wins an everyday job out of spring training (hah!) or gets a chance to play because ankiel gets hurt (possible). but if one of those things were to happen, and the kid had a Hunter Pence like rookie year, he could be a 4- to 5-win player making the minimum.

not very likely, but youneverknow . . . .

by lboros on Jan 2, 2009 6:43 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Or he gets the job

Because Ankiel gets traded. (possible) There, I just jumped your odds for not very likely to just not likely. Every little bit helps.

"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin

by That's a Winner on Jan 2, 2009 12:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

wouldn't ludwick

be more likely to be traded?

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 2, 2009 12:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He has more value sure

I think the Ludwick trade talk was a bit of bait & switch on Mo’s part. Let it be known Ludwick’s available to see who calls and what they offer. Then tell them it’s not enough but would they be interested in Ankiel. Gets him a gauge on the market value of both of them and a list of teams to contact latter on if they don’t fill their OF need.

"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin

by That's a Winner on Jan 2, 2009 1:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Mind explaining the math...

or directing me to a place that does so. You value a win at ~ 5M. Where does that value come from? Should a 90 win team cost 450M to compile? Or are these wins above replacement? If so, how many actual wins does a replacement level team win? Under this system, what is the total value of all major leaguers?

by rrvwmr on Jan 2, 2009 8:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Dave Cameron has six pieces on FanGraphs about win values.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/win-values-explained-part-six

^^ explains why we value wins at ~5 mil.

To answer your other questions, a replacement level team wins about 30% of their games, or between 47-50 games.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 3, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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