Apparently, the pitcher hitting 8th works.

by aNdrOss on Sep 9, 2008 1:05 PM EDT Comment 9 comments

Using the Lineup Analysis tool found at the below link, I put in the Cardinals actual production from each spot in the lineup, and then switched the 8th and 9th hitters to see if there was a significant difference:

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=Leadoff+Hitter&OBA0=+0.348&Slug0=+0.396&Player1=Number+2+Guy&OBA1=+0.355&Slug1=+0.477&Player2=AP&OBA2=+0.441&Slug2=+0.611&Player3=Cleanup+Hitter&OBA3=+0.345&Slug3=+0.502&Player4=5&OBA4=+0.368&Slug4=+0.475&Player5=6&OBA5=+0.345&Slug5=+0.385&Player6=7&OBA6=+0.354&Slug6=+0.400&Player7=Pitcher&OBA7=+0.247&Slug7=+0.292&Player8=Our+worst+hitter&OBA8=+0.322&Slug8=+0.323&Model=0

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?sort=OPS&split=109&group=8&season=2008&seasonType=2&statType=batting&type=reg

The results showed that the Cards should have scored 5.249 runs/game with the lineups they put out there, and would have scored 5.156 runs/game with the pitcher hitting 9th. That works out to about 15 runs over the season, or 1.5 wins! I guess this proves Tony right?

Anyway, the other interesting thing I noticed was that our 7th hitter has significantly outperformed out 6th hitter (.354 OBP/.400 SLG vs. .345/.385). Also, all of the best possible lineups include our #3 hitter (Albert) hitting leadoff, with the best one scoring 5.335 runs/game.

Feel free to discuss! Go Cards! Play on until we're mathematically eliminated!

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Most common lineup

our most common lineup was, used only 5 times this season,
1. Schumaker 2. Duncan 3. Pujols 4. Ankiel 5. Glaus 6. Molina 7. Kennedy 8. Pitcher 9. Izturis

and our most common at each spot lineup was:
Schumaker, Miles, Pujols, Ankiel (by 2 games over Ludwick), Glaus, Molina, Molina, Pitcher, Izturis

I would like to see what they would generate runs wise.

by StLHugo on Sep 9, 2008 1:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That lineup toy doesn't work at the extremes of Albert batting first

It’s based on a multiple regression so the 8/9 thing may be accurate (though I doubt it’s as big a difference as 1.5 wins), Markov chains dispelled the best-hitter-first thing I believe. Albert is so much better than the typical leadoff guy that he breaks the regression.

Kosuke Fukudome: $55 million.262 .362 .382
Skip Schumaker: $Free .305 .365 .416
Skippy needs a new publicist

by joker24 on Sep 9, 2008 1:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If I'm remembering

The Book correctly, it would have Albert batting either 2nd or 4th. Either or 1st would be better than batting him 3rd b/c he is the best hitter, most likely to get on base, and best power hitter on the team. Hitting him 3rd puts him up too frequently w/ 2 outs and no one on base.

I’d really prefer to see him bat 2nd — it guarantees him a PA in the 1st w/ no more than 1 out in the inning, will create several more PAs for him throughout the course of the season, and still allows the #9 and #1 hitters the opportunity to be on base when he comes up after the 1st. Plus, the 7th if the pitcher is able to bunt him over.

I’ll add this though, this stuff is fun to think about but, while batting order matters a little, it’s not going to matter much over the course of a season. It might be worth as much as 1.5 wins — that’s 15 runs or so — over 162 games but not much more than that.

by chuckb on Sep 9, 2008 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

by giveml on Sep 9, 2008 3:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

all those sacrifice bunts,

GIDP’s, and failed hit and runs take a toll ;)

the ******* plane has crashed into the mountain.

by SleepyCA on Sep 9, 2008 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right

but I would still like to put 20+ on the Cubbies three nights in a row!

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Sep 9, 2008 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

there is no difference

some of our pitchers hit better than iz2, ak, etc who bat ninth. key is to get somebody that would make a difference. try it with cubs or brewers line ups and se if it makes no difference.

"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension

by sportsman on Sep 15, 2008 8:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs