FA pitchers

I think he would be a great fit in St. Louis as well. You would also think he’d be a guy that Dave Duncan would covet having in his stable of starters. He could be another Duncan project that comes over after a middling year with an average team and then win 20 games and get in the Cy Young hunt (think Bob Welch). Given the fact that he’s already a pretty damn good pitcher with a good sinker and pitch to contact philosophy, the chances of him being successful in St. Louis are extremely high.

However, he will turn 36 in the middle of the season next year and made $9.5 million a year ago (which is pretty cheap when you consider that Pineiro will make $7 next season), so what kind of deal are we looking at here? He will be a type A Free Agent, so he’ll cost a draft pick (although we’d pick one up for losing Lohse) as well. I’m thinking somewhere in the neighborhood of 3Y/33M-36M would be about right. That averages out to $11-$12 million a year and if you backload the deal by paying him $8 million next year and $15 million in 2011, you’d still have the flexibility to go out and sign bullpen help and possibly a middle infielder for 2009.

I don’t think you can go longer than 3 years with a pitcher that’s his age, but I think if you go shorter than that I think he’ll sign elsewhere. Someone is bound to give him a three year deal.

Martinez and Johnson don’t interest me at all after the Mulder/Clement/Carpenter saga, but Jamie Moyer would be an interesting pick up considering how good the Cardinals play defense. He’ll pitch over 160 innings and won’t miss many bats, but if he can solidify the 5 spot in the rotation and put Piniero in the pen for around $6 million next year I’d at least kick it around a bit.

no more injured starters!…that is all

… 3/$36 if necessary. RJ and Pedro won’t come here even if we wanted them. Lowe is a Type B so he won’t cost a pick. get Lowe and you’ve got:

1. Carp
2. Waino
3. Lowe
4. Welly
5. Boggs/Piniero/Mac

now that Garcia is hurt and might miss all of next season, the need for another starter has gone up. if Mac is to be moved to the rotation, then Boggs or Piniero goes to the pen, and the other to AAA to cover the inevitable injuries to Carp, Wain, Welly, and/or Mac. you’re basically taking Looper and Mulder’s salary and giving it to Lowe. you’ve still got ~ $10mn from losing Izzy and Clement, plus no more money to Flores, Encarnacion, etc. so there’s still $15-$20mn to spend on Furcal if you want him and/or bullpen help.

one or two of the Mort/Garcia/Boggs/Todd tandem might be a mid-rotation guy in ‘10, which is good because we’ll be losing Welly and Piniero then. Glaus’ contract is up then, too, and chances are good that Freese or Wallace will be ready then or sooner.

hope Ty Johnson comes back and sign another LOOGY. as always, there’s a lot of LOOGYs out there: Marte, Eyre, Ohman, Affeldt, Rhodes, Embree, and others. take your pick (i like Ohman or Affeldt). bullpen with Mac in the rotation:

1. Perez
2. Motte
3. LOOGY 1 (Ohman)
4. LOOGY 2 (Johnson)
5. Franklin
6. Thompson
7. Piniero/Boggs

bullpen with Mac:

1. Perez
2. Motte
3. Mac
4. LOOGY 1
5. LOOGY 2
6. Franklin
7. Thompson

if Kinney comes back, then maybe he’s in the mix also.

i think that team can go toe-to-toe with the Cubs and challenge for the division, while still keeping payroll flexibility and room for the kids to come in and contribute over the next 1-2 years. if you trade an OFer and/or Anderson, you can boost the MIF depth in the high-minors or maybe even get somebody MLB-ready.

He’s a young left hander. His numbers aren’t that bad either. I’d rather not see the team splurge on some older pitchers if we are truly dedicated to rebuilding. If the team wants to wait and see on Rasmus then we need to find pitchers that will help in ’10 and beyond, not just next year.

i see we try to get him for around 9-12 million a year for 2 years…he’ll replace loshe, be cheaper(years and probably dollars) and we won’t lose a pick…sounds good to me…how many other teams are thinking this though

I was very high on Burnett, but it seems like he may just be leveraging the interested parties against eachother for longer and more money. His pitching style could also clash in STL.

A few ideas,

Lowe and Maddux together, 3/36 and 1/5-7m

Wolf and fill out the rest with rookies 2/16 We still have no LH starters.

Burnett could be an extra ace for us, at 4/48: This is now probably a dream.

Garland seems like he would jive with DD, and he could get the bump that many GBing vets get when they come to STL. Will probably cost 3/30 unfortunately.

Randy isn’t going anywhere. He’s made it abundantly clear that he wants to stay in Arizona as he lives there and can pitch in a relatively pressure-free environment. Unless he blows out an arm he’s going to get to 300 wins next year for the Diamondbacks and he’s going to be their first Hall Of Famer. Why bother chasing him?

As for Pedro, there’s just too much risk. Let the White Sox or Red Sox or Dodgers pick him up and pay him to sit on the DL half the season. He’s this generation’s equivalent of Sandy Koufax, except that he didn’t retire when the injuries finally caught up to him.

I’m all for signing Derek Lowe if they can. Give him 3/36 mil and put him after Carp and Wagonmaker. That would be a good, responsible signing. He eats innings, he’ll always compete hard and Duncan wouldn’t even need to do much coaching. It’s a lot less of a risk than Oliver Perez, Sheets or Burnett and we wouldn’t need to give him Santana money like with Sabathia. After signing Lowe they could still afford to find some MIF help and a LOOGY or two, both of which should be the utmost priority this winter.

Right now, we need a short term guy who can be relied upon until we find out what’s going on with the kids. He’s had a great year this year, and he won’t be a huge committment in terms of years. Why not throw him something like 1Y/$12M, with an option for a second, and maybe a $3M buyout?