sudden impact
by lboros on Sep 5, 2008 8:55 AM EDT
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Printazru is time-crunched today, so i’m filling in for him. if you haven’t read the morning paper yet, la russa’s challenging the team to acquire some "impact help" this off-season. stringing together a few of his comments --- this is not one statement, but a composite of several:
he adds, toward the end of the article: "If I'm managing next year, I'm managing here" (my emphasis).
i take this last sentence as a veiled ultimatum --- if the club doesn’t spend either money or prospects to land an established star player or two, he’s liable to quit. personally, i’d rather see him quit than see the organization make a short-sighted move to appease him. as with jocketty last season, la russa’s interests seem to lie somewhat in opposition to the organization’s. la russa has no use for players who might blossom 3 or 4 years from now, because 3 or 4 years from now he probably isn’t going to be managing. players like that are worthless to him. listen to him pooh-pooh the talent in the pipeline:
when people accuse tony of being bad with young players, it’s because of statements like this one. obviously there are no alberts within the system ---- no team has an albert in its system ---- but if we reframe the question to, "are there any potential mvp candidates within the system," i would answer that there might be. rasmus is a top 10 prospect; brett wallace is probably going to be in the top 25 or 50. daryl jones certainly has the tools of an mvp-type player, and this year he finally got the results to match. the problem is that none of these guys is going to be an mvp candidate next year --- and that’s the rub for la russa. by the time they reach their primes, he won’t be around to reap the benefits. but (as a fan) i will.
re the need for "impact" --- forgive me if i don’t see it. the cards rank 3d in scoring this season, and on a park-adjusted basis they have the best offense in the league. as i noted yesterday, they’re going to have four 25-hr men on the roster for the first time in 7 years, and for only the second time in la russa's tenure in st louis. despite the lack of lineup "protection" for pujols (something la russa has complained about all year), albert is headed for his best season since 2003. there’s plenty of impact on hand. compare the production of this year’s outfielders to the number posted by the sanders-walker-edmonds outfields of yore (current-year totals are pro-rated for 162 games):
| HR | RBI | R | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 89 | 298 | 313 | .288 | .360 | .491 |
| 2005 | 82 | 291 | 310 | .274 | .353 | .475 |
| 2004 | 92 | 276 | 289 | .274 | .356 | .498 |
they’re getting better production out of this group. here’s the same comparison for the 2bmen:
| HR | RBI | R | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 6 | 64 | 67 | .305 | .350 | .385 |
| 2005 (grud’k) | 9 | 70 | 75 | .279 | .320 | .383 |
| 2004 (womack) | 7 | 46 | 100 | .288 | .328 | .367 |
so much for the good old days, eh? now, obviously the cardinals can stand an upgrade at 2b --- i wouldn't expect the current crop of players to post the same numbers next year. but the position is not the offensive black hole that it has been made out to be.
i’m not arguing that the cardinals should just stand pat this winter. they clearly need an upgrade at shortstop; strauss dropped hints that troy tulowitzki might be available, and while it seems far-fetched to me that colorado is trying to shop him, he's a player who would represent both a short- and a long-term fix (he's under contract for another 4 or 5 years) and thus would meet both tony's needs and the organization's. i really think that's a longshot, but he's the type of player they should be looking for. they can use another starting pitcher in the short-term (although, as i’ve repeated long and loud, the odds are that by 2010 somebody who’s already in the organization will have matured into a reliable mid-rotation pitcher). they might need a hitter who can mash left-handers, although as i peruse the roster it seems to be they don’t lack for good right-handed bats. they need at least one reliable lh reliever, especially as long as la russa is managing. and they might need some fortification from the right side of the bullpen, especially if mcclellan gets converted into a starter next year (which i think is a good idea). i’m comfortable heading into next year with perez as the closer.
there is definitely room for improvement. but if mo and co go into the winter with the goal of making splashy "impact" moves just to pass la russa’s litmus test, i think it’ll end bad.
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Yes!! I am first
I agree somewhat with the sentiment that has dominated this board for most of the season. Prospects are important and they shouldn’t be a commodity that is treated lightly or squandered away for an “impact bat” that is nearing the end of his prime o and so on. However, if we have a chance to win the world series by leveraging some of our prospects (some not all) into the on field major league personel that results in a championship contented, you have to do it. I think that is La Russa’s view. He is not a self serving as I think you make him out to be. He understands the value that prospects add to the organization, but he also understands that they are only a commodity (albiet cost controlled ones) that the organization has that ultimately need to be leveraged into a Winning. If that is be letting them mature (which I definitely believe in) or by trading them for talent to win now, based on the current position of the organization, both paths are reasonable uses for prospects.
agreed rick
there are times when it makes sense to leverage your prospects for short-term gains. but this team is going to end up with about 87 wins. an “impact” addition might improve them to a 92-, 93-win team -- which is not really a serious world series contender. i think they are still a year or two away from being championship contenders; getting impatient and reaching for the brass ring too soon could set them back.
LB
there is something about your avatar that just, well, scares the hell out of me. The kid in me sees this daunting, Cardinalesque version of the Eye of Sauron.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
i've always felt the same way, eckstreem. it's cool but kind of creepy sometimes.
take care to engage in thoughtful, mature baseball discourse, lest you invite the wrath of the watchful eye of lboros! and funny stuff and pop culture references are ok too, i hope…
does anyone else see a horned cyclops coming in from the lower right hand corner?
it's time to bring the rock!!!!!!!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 5, 2008 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
2 years away
In two years you may not have Pujols, so are you really a serious world series contender?
if 2004 and 2006 proved anythign
it’s that any team is a world series contender, if they make it through the playoff gate.
the ******* plane has crashed into the mountain.
Excactly
You mentioned that 92-93 wins isn’t a World Series caliber team but it should be a playoff team. I think Playoff’s are just a crap shoot that you ride out.
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 5, 2008 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
agreed...
the best team doesn’t always win
Nick Stavinoah = John Gall
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Sep 5, 2008 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
sort of
the real issue is whether you have to beat teams that make that end of the season prospect overpayment for a shot at the WS. if others continue to do it, any other team will be hard pressed to beat them without following the same path once in a while.
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
I guess I'd want to point out that TLR doesn't specifically say
“get an impact player for the OFFENSE.”
Maybe he wants a pitcher? Maybe he’s tired of dealing with constant injuries and re-treads?
I know, I know, he probably means offense. But can we assume Carp is gonna be healthy all next year?
as noted in an earlier post
he has dealt with “re-treads” his entire career, including while in Oakland and if i’m not mistaken, while in Chicago as well
i assume a bat for two reasons
one, that’s the thing tony has harped on all year -- we need better protection for albert. and two, the cardinals simply are not gonna get an impact pitcher. sabathia turned down a 4-year, $72m contract from the indians, and he’s probably gonna get santana-type money; the yankees want him. the cardinals aren’t going to be in that bidding. ben sheets is also probably going to get a big, risky contract, though not quite as pricey as cc’s because of his injury history -- but after getting burned w/ carp’s contract, the cards probably aren’t going to drop another $75m on a guy w/ a long record of injuries.
i would think the cards would want to stick to the formula that has worked for them -- get their “impact” pitchers on the cheap. of their 3 best pitchers, one was a waiver claim (wellemeyer), one was a rookie (wainwright), and one was a $500K free agent (carp). the other recent frontline pitchers on their staff have been homegrown (ankiel, morris) or cheap trade acquisitions (woody). the last “impact” pitcher they traded for, mulder, was a disaster -- they traded away an impact guy.
they can certainly use an impact pitcher, but i don’t think they can afford one.
I can only think of one
I’m starting to like the idea of Derek Lowe. I would be hesitant on the duration of his contract because of his age, but he hasn’t shown signs of injury and since 2002 he’s had only two seasons under 200 IP (199.3 and 182.7). This year he’s getting more groundballs than anyone other than Brandon Webb. He’s got a 3.69 ERA with a 3.33 FIP, a .302 BABIP and a K:BB of 128:39 (almost identical to Wainwright). He’s not getting lucky and may actually be pitching better than his 3.69 ERA. With the defensive emphasis of the Cardinals, he could get closer to that 3.33 FIP. I think he could provide great #3 starting pitching and hopefully for a short enough duration not to hamstring the organization.
Generally, I’m not excited about the middle infield bats. Hudson’s a Type A with injury problems, Grudzielanek is 38, Ellis is hitting poorly and Orlando Cabrera and Edgar both seem like shells of themselves at 33 and 32 respectively. Rafael Furcal is the only guy I really like and he just had back surgery. I could only find that he’s had lower back surgery but nothing on the actually injury so I don’t know the full extent. Furcal isn’t a Type A or Type B FA and offers some power from SS. He’d be my choice.
The outfield offers the most name recognition with players like Dunn, Burrell, Manny, Ibanez and Milton Bradley. There’s also the most potential to handcuff the team with our glut of outfielders in the system. A guy like Milton Bradley could offer great production while healthy, could be given more frequent breaks to keep him fresh and healthy and probably not be prohibitive in duration.
That makes my opinion Derek Lowe, Rafael Furcal and Milton Bradley.
by sra on Sep 5, 2008 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Other than signging a
cheap incentive laden 1 year deal for Furcal, I think that the much desired impact bat would come through a trade to get a good hitting middle infielder, someone like Tulowitzki or Ramirez (or even Cano). I figure to get Cano or Tulowitzki, the Cards would need to give up someone like Ankiel plus another young hitter and a pitcher for Ramirezthe Cards would have to part with Rasmus.
Tulo won't be traded
so forget that. The Rockies view him as their Jeter.
"Cross a lawyer with the Godfather, make you an offer you can't understand" - Don Henley
by Futility Infielder on Sep 5, 2008 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Really?
Joe Strauss indicated yesterday that the Rockies may be willing to listen to offers for Troy
Rick Mostak: I religiously read your chats each week. They are both entertaining and informative, the best combination possible. Do you think the Cards are willing to commit to the long term contract necessary to fill the middle infield position? I agree that the Cards should have the funds to make some acquisitions, but the number of years to sign someone like Furcal or Cabrerra jams up the path for guys like Greene, Solano, Kozma, Vasquez and Castillo. Are the Cards willing to do that in order to be more competitive in 2009? Is a one year contract with Renteria or going with the same mix at the middle infield as this year with Barden possibly in the mix the answer? Your insights are appreciated. Thanks.
Joe Strauss: Welcome to the Temple of the Tsunami. Yours is a good question. It appears increasingly obvious the club is going to discard Adam Kennedy, either via trade or outright release. TLR is committed to finding out what Felipe Lopez brings and remains a Miles advocate. TLR craves another impact bat. Unless the club can find a SS with punch (Furcal, Tejada), I would not be surprised if it tried to retain Little Cesar for one more season while seeking a power outfield bat. Renteria may be a stopgap, but his career is in decline. The Rockies may be willing to listen to offers for Troy Tulowitzki, a name that intrigues many quarters of the Cardinals’ organization. I don’t get the vibe that TLR is enthralled by any Triple-A position players.
All due respect
but that is speculation from a Cardinals’ beat writer. I tend to put more stock in the information I read from the Rockies’ writers. Even though Tulo has had a miserable year, I have never read anything locally here that even hints at them moving him. Plenty of talk about Atkins, Fuentes and Holliday, but not Tulo. Just saying.
"Cross a lawyer with the Godfather, make you an offer you can't understand" - Don Henley
by Futility Infielder on Sep 5, 2008 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
agreed
i live in denver too; haven’t ever heard word one about a tulo trade. it would be suicidal from a business perspective - tulo is a fan favorite.
Fair enough
I found it odd when I first read the comment that Tulo was even available (seems like Helton and Atkins are the trade chips). That said, Cards should still seek out a hard hitting middle infielder such as Cano or Ramirez even if Tulo is not available.
On that, we agree
I would like an end to the days of bargain-bin shopping for middle infielders.
"Cross a lawyer with the Godfather, make you an offer you can't understand" - Don Henley
by Futility Infielder on Sep 5, 2008 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
if youve come to your senses that Tulo is not going to be traded
then you should also realize that Hanley Ramirez is not going to be traded either. If we offered Pujols for Ramirez the Marlins still might not bite.
if we offered pujols for ramirez, the cards might need to factor in
the cost of the damage caused by angry fans burning the city down.
there were apparently a couple of confrontations
between Tulo and Hurdle this year, especially after Tulo cut himself with the bat splinter. That’s all I can think of, though Tulo did have a pretty awful year with the bat.
the ******* plane has crashed into the mountain.
Well, that was a stupid thing to do
especially with a maple bat. Hurdle should have gotten in Tulo’s grill for that. Since he came back from that injury, he’s been pretty decent, but not as good as last year.
Like LB said, it would suicidal for them to trade Tulo, especially when it appears that either Holliday or Atkins could be traded this winter.
"Cross a lawyer with the Godfather, make you an offer you can't understand" - Don Henley
by Futility Infielder on Sep 5, 2008 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
same probability as the discontent of
jimmy rollins?
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
I dont get Strauss' logic in expecting Izturis to stay at SS and getting a power OF bat.
We already have 2 power OF bats who are plus defenders. A 3rd who is our only leadoff man and a 4th in AAA who is the crown jewel of our farm system. We would likely have to trade Ludwick and/or Ankiel plus some minor league talent to get an impact OF bat. I just don’t see the possibility of a net ‘impact’ upgrade if we make that kind of a move.
+1000
Which is why I agree totally with LB’s point in the main post that he’d rather see LaRussa go than to make an “impact” trade just to please him. We have plenty of good outfield bats. Where we need to upgrade is middle infield. Even there, as LB pointed out, our offense this year, for the most part, was not the problem. The team has had an excellent year as measured by AVG, OBP, SLG, even R/G. There have been a number of games with way too many stranded runners, but we’ve scored enough overall. We just haven’t prevented enough runs.
To me, if we could only make one move, it should be for an impact ARM not another outfield bat.
by ArkansasTravs on Sep 5, 2008 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
pretty much agree sra....
i’ve been thinking for awhile that derek lowe & rafael furcal should be our top two offseason priorities. i’m not interested in milton bradley. i just don’t see the need to sign an outfielder; we have plenty of those.
but my line of through regarding lowe:
he’s averaged around 200 innings and a sub 4 era running on six years. as you pointed out, he has the best ground ball % of anyone besides bwebb. he’s the duncan prototype – gets a ton of groundballs and still has a decent enough k rate to satisfy most of the rest of us. i think he also represents a good middle ground. he’s a proven veteran, but (maybe) could be had at a price that doesn’t cripple the team or mortgage the future. i am leary giving a pitcher his age a multi-year deal, but as you also stated, i see no signs of decline in his peripherals. while i personally like a.j. burnett or ben sheets better, the final tipping point of the argument for me comes from arbitration status. according to <ahref=“http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/09/elias-ranking-u.html” > he’ll only be a type b free agent, so we won’t have to forfeit a 1st round pick. lowe is my choice for an addition to the rotation. that would give us carp/wainwright/lowe/wellemeyer/piniero. i’d be pretty happy with that. and i think it would still allow us enough money to make a competitive offer for furcal. we could have “impact” players and not have to forfeit prospects.
I like Lowe more and more
I keep looking for reasons not to go after him, but I can’t find any aside from age. I was hoping a 35 year old would accept a 2 year deal. Maybe that’s too optimistic; I’m not sure. He’s making $10mm right now. If we offered 2 years and $25mm would he take that? Is that too much?
I prefer against signing an outfield bat as well. lboros pointed out that our outfield offense has been as good as the 100 wins clubs. But if we’re going to sign one, I think M. Bradley is the way to go.
Also, I’ve been waiting for an “I told you so” from lboros about M. Bradley’s ‘08 campaign. He’s certainly earned to scream it.
by sra on Sep 5, 2008 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
i was thinking...
it would take something around 3 years 36 million. but maybe he would do a 2 year with a 3rd year option, where it vested if he reached a certain amount of innings. i’d definately give him 2/25 though.
Burned by Carp
Did they get burned by Carp’s contract? Did he not sign relatively cheap coming off his first arm injury? So maybe it evened itself out? Sorry I cant remember.
His current contract
i.e. the long extension they signed him to right before his elbow went caput at the beginning of last year.
Well he can't be talking about a starter
because when given the chance at impact starters Wainer and Carp he choose to use that as an opportunity to make the pen better.
So that could mean the pen…but after the last few games isn’t it clear that in general by next season the pen’s problems will solve themselves. The remaining issue is LOOGY and is Tony really saying he might quit if he doesn’t get an impact LOOGY?
In reading the P-D article
did anyone else read the end and wonder if TLR might be here next year without Duncan? Am I reading too much into that?
"Cross a lawyer with the Godfather, make you an offer you can't understand" - Don Henley
by Futility Infielder on Sep 5, 2008 9:39 AM EDT reply actions
TLR's albert statement
To be fair, Tony also used Wainwright as a reference point in the quote about Albert. The rest of his comment was:
If (Adam) Wainwright was from our system, is there a guy like him?" La Russa said. "We’re going to need some impact. Is that there, or is there someone who fits the next category — legitimate help?
Is swapping Rasmus for Schu or Ank the impact move that is needed to push this team to the next level? Or, as TLR hints, is Rasmus for Schu/Ank fall into the legitimate help category? I wholeheartedly agree on having Rasmus being CF in 2009 but MI, bullpen and replacing Lohse/Looper are bigger holes for 2009.
I don’t believe any Cards fan thinks this team is all set to contend in 2009. Tony is pushing the envelope as much as he can to make sure his opinion, and that of most fans, is heard loud and clear. If this team wants to win in 2009, the team needs help. He, along with the fan base, is still waiting for the FO to make an impact move beyond Itz2.
IMO, to use this parts of the quote to point out LaRussa is bad with young players is kinda stretching what the man is saying.
Why CANT we contend in 2009?
What is so wrong with this team that we can’t contend in ‘09? Admittedly, several things need to go right, but that’s the case with any playoff team. If we simply stay healthy, we SHOULD contend next year. We will get all our bats back. Pujols, Glaus, Ank, Duncan (if he can get healthy), Rasmus, Ludwick, Mather. Let me see, that is 7 guys with 25+ HR potential. I know they all can’t be in the lineup at the same time, but 5 of them can. On top of that, we now have a talented farm system with several talented parts (Anderson, Jay, Craig or Freese) that can bring in some help and not hurt our long-term success at all.
Our rotation should have Carp, Wainwright, Welley, and Pinata. We can use McClellan as a starter, or try to flip a couple of prospects for a good starter.
Look at the ’pen. Perez should be a good closer. Motte is going to be a lot of fun to watch, Thompson is a very valuable swing-man. Kinney is healthy, though a bit of a crapshoot.
This should be a team that, when healthy, has one flaw and one flaw only. That is a lack of an good bat in the MIF. So what. They have good gloves at 2b and SS, and a lineup potent enough to survive a couple of iffy bats in it.
Why CAN’T we win? If Perez can simply close 80% of his save opportunities, and we get the same production out of our offense, we would be leadnig the wild card right now anyway.
Why CAN’t we trade some prospects? We have several good ones that aren’t going to get a chance to play here anyway.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
nobody said we can't win
but you can’t just think about 2009. you have to think about 2010 and beyond. i’m opposed to a move that increases their odds to win in 2009 but decreases their odds to win in 2010 and beyond. personally, i think their odds to win a title in 2010-11 will be better than their odds to win one next year, so therefore i think it’s a bad tradeoff to bet on 2009 at the expense of 2010-11.
just my opinion, yours may differ.
I disagree.....
I think we are more likely to win with the core we have now, then in the first couple of years of a team with Rasmus and Wallace, and any other young guys we bring up. Not sure what Carp will have left in 2010. We might have a rookie SS that year. Heck, might have a rookie 2B as well. And if Jones is ready, add another rookie to the mix.
Those guys will be good in time, but I don’t see us seriously contending with that much youth at the same time. They’ll need a few seasons, IMO. I think our best shot is next year, as we return pretty much every important piece from a pretty good team this year, should be healthier from the beginning of the year, hopefully don’t have the closer issues, and have quite a bit of salary coming off the books, allowing us to chase down a solid player via trade or FA.
I agree with you
But who would be the guy that we acquire to help us just in 2009 but not in 2010 and 2011? If you sign any of the FA outfielders like Dunn or Burrell, they’re going to be here for those years too. Signing one of those guys doesn’t even impact the farm system, and also allows the team to trade outfield prospects for help in the middle infield. I can’t find one player that would help the club in ’09 and be completely absent in ’10 and ’11.
I’m intrigued by Lopez and would be willing to ink him to a deal similar to what Iz2 got this season to man second base for us next year. I still think that the club needs to look very hard at upgrading the SS position for next season. I just don’t like giving away free outs against RH pitching.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
free agents go into decline
they’re usually at age 30 or beyond, so they are highly susceptible to getting worse over hte life of their deal. that’s the risk they carry. you can sign pat burrell to a 3-year deal, but by 2010 you may find that you’re stuck with a bad player who actually hurts your team, rather than helps it.
I know what you are talking about LB
But, with the crop of youngsters coming up, we may be able to stomach a bit of a back-end loaded contract in exchange for a decline-phase veteran or two. Perez abd the rest of our younger bullpenwill save us boatloads of cash. Our OF will be relatively cheap for a few more years. Heck, we will probably save a bunch of cash at 3b too, after Glaus’s contract expires. Surely one of the Wallace-Freese-Craig combo will be ready by ’10.
I guess my opinion on the matter is thus: We really can afford to get a decline-phase FA or two, since the rest of our team should be on the cheap side of the payroll. We shouldn’t encounter any payroll crunch for the next 3 years or so, with Wainer, Carp, Pujols, and Molina all locked up. By ’10, we should be cheap(ish) at 3b, LF, RF, and CF. We should have a cheap closer, a cheap set-up man, and at least 2 cheap starters in Garcia, Boggs, Todd, Ottavino, etc…
Of course, by then Aaron Miles will be the player-manager, saving us even more money.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
While i agree with that statement
I think it does matter what type of player they are as well. Guys like Dunn and Burrell, who have a high OBP and hit a lot of homers, tend to age a little better than guys who hit for a high average and rely on their speed to bump their slugging numbers up. If we could get Dunn or Burrell (and didn’t have a great outfield already, they obviously wouldn’t be targets) I still think that even if they are in decline they’re still going to be above average corner outfielders for 2010 and 2011, and probably even 2012.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Would be a good addition imo
i expect that Baltimore will have him on the block next year especially since they are facing an even more top loaded division with TB next year. So if he’s a FA after next year and likely to be available during the season to a number of teams who will be looking for help at a premium position devoid of elite talent, why not give up a little extra to get him in the offseason to get an entire season of production from him?
I don’t know what people like LBoros feel it would take to get him, but I’d start with something like Anderson, Freese or Craig, and any pitcher – Todd, Mortenson etc. with John Jay also on the table.
I think we need to try and get him
because he solves a ton of problems. They aren’t going to be interested in Anderson though, unless they plan on moving Matt Wieters somewhere else, which isn’t likely. He’s probably the top prospect heading into the 2009 season that will play a full season.
I do think they’d be interested in one of our third baseman because Melvin Mora isn’t getting any younger and it’s starting to show. I also think they’d have to be interested in some of the young arms like Boggs, Garcia, or Todd. I’d probably want to hold on to Boggs as he seems like the guy who can help the most next year, but keeping Todd is intriguing because he’s definitely a guy who can be dominant at times.
I’d offer them something like Freese, Boggs, and Mather for Roberts. That fills needs for them at starting pitcher, third base, and also adds a guy who could DH, play corner OF, or play 1B while slugging around 25-30 homers over a full season. I think they would have to be interested in that package, but I’m sure some other team could come up with a better one. I’m just not comfortable giving up much more than that for him. If Duncan was healthy, he’d be a guy that they’d have to be interested in, giving that they’ve played Kevin Millar at first base for most of the year.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
In some ways
I don’t know that LaRussa is wrong about seeking an impact bat or pitcher for the rotation. The 2008 Cardinals have relied on career years from both Ludwick and Ankiel. Whether you think the Cards need an impact bat for next season is heavily tied to whether you think one or both of that pair can replicate their productivity this season.
While I am slowly coming around to the idea that Ludwick and Ankiel may be able to keep up their 2008 stats, I still think the wisest move might be to trade one of them to add an impact bat/ decent hitting middle infielder or a young impact starting pitcher. While I original though Ludwick would be the better trade chip, I now think Ankiel is the right player to move, largely because he appears to be injury prone.
i wouldn't be opposed to the cards moving ankiel
but he isn’t going to bring an impact player in return, imho. he’s not cost-controlled - can be a free agent after one more year, if i’m not mistaken -- so i don’t see how he lands us an impact guy.
By himself, likely not
But added into a deal with another prospect or two, I think the Cards could get one.
Deja vu
Trading a left hand power hitting outfielder that can play all three positions and is one year away from being a free agent. That sound familier.
"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin
by That's a Winner on Sep 5, 2008 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
What about Skip then?
He’s entering arbitration for the first time, plays a solid CF and has proven to be a good leadoff option (against RHP). Could a trade centered around him bring back anything of value?
a 4th outfielder
who ranks 5th in the NL in GPA, for center fielders, ahead of Kemp, Rowand, Victorino, etc? He’d be 6th in the AL, just ahead of ichiro. He would also rank 5th in the NL in RF, and he makes 400k, and is under team control for 3 more years, and is a great defender?
Nope, no value there.
the ******* plane has crashed into the mountain.
He's not exactly
a great defender. More like passable in CF. It hinges on someone thinking he’s the hitter he’s been the last year and a half.
He's not exactly a poor defender. He's above average.
And if you plut him in LF instead of RF or CF then he makes a lot more sense.
He makes
the most sense in CF, because he’s probably just a bit below average there. I’m sure he’s a plus defender in LF where several NL teams try and put guys that should be DHing. He has the same minor league OPS as Aaron Miles, so putting him in a corner outfield spot full-time isn’t exactly thrilling.
If he’s a .280 EqA hitter, then put him wherever while he’s cheap, but I don’t believe that yet.
hummmm......
Obvously he probably is seen as a platoon guy based on his inability to hit LHP consistently. But at least he is part of the platoon that will get more PT as there are a heck of a lot more RHP than LHP.
I don’t think he is terrible, but I don’t think he is going to bring back a ton. I like Skip and think he as peformed well.
I think people are taking for granted how good we got it
Skip is seen as a 4th OF to us cause we probably have the best OF core in baseball core. Teams like Atlanta would LOVE to have Skip roaming out there for them.
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 5, 2008 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
He is also third in GPA
of the OFs on his own team and not that far ahead of Barton and Mather. It is a little too generous to call him a great defender. His numbers in the corner OF positions are very similar to Ludwick’s and he certainly isn’t any better than Ank in CF. In fact, you could argue that Barton is a better defensive OF as he has a much better RZR in LF than Schu. Plus, Barton is probably more likely to hit RHPs than Schu is to hit LHPs.
I hope you are right and other teams see a lot of value in Schu, but he looks like a fourth OF/platoon guy to me.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
well, yeah
Luddy is a legit MVP candidate, with the 4th best GPA in the NL overall, and Ankiel is the second-best hitting CF in the league. So “third on his own team in the OF” doesn’t mean a whole lot. Sure, he (should be) the 4th or 5th OF on OUR team, but because he’s been allowed to prove himself, he should also have decent trade value.
Barden and mather don’t have enough time in LF (and skip doesn’t have enough time in either LF or RF) for their RZR’s to have much merit, though my eyeballs do tell me that Barton is a better defender. That is a good thing; the fact that Barton is also great does not take away from Skip being great.
the ******* plane has crashed into the mountain.
no sense splitting hairs
I just have high expectations for great. Like I said, I hope 29 other teams share your assessment and we can move him for need.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Trade Skip
it’s the only logical choice
it's time to bring the rock!!!!!!!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 5, 2008 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
If anyone thinks Skip is a valuable commidity.
Which I don’t think is the case, at least not compared to Ankiel.
Skip is more Valuable than Rick
3 years of Skip vs 1 Year of Rick
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 5, 2008 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
If you think Skip is a full time starter..
I think most teams view Skip as a 4th outfielder, not a useful ML starter.
I don't think that's correct
I think some folks here are jaded by our best-in-the-league outfield crew.
Skip would probably be a starter in 15 or more teams in MLB this year. He’s in the top 10 in most categories for both leagues. AND he’s cheap (400k) and under control for 3 years. That makes him a very attractive player for most teams.
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
Skip Schumaker has the most ABs of any OF on the team
Just sayin’…
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
Undoubtedly, but you're missing the point
Even if our MVP-caliber OF Ludwick beat him out for ABs, it doesn’t change the fact that Skip is getting a ton of ABs. The conception that he’s “strictly” a platoon player who never plays against lefties is false. He’s definitely better against RHers, but that’s the case for most left-handed bats. And most pitchers are still right-handed the last time I checked.
Also, there are plenty of ML OFers in both leagues that have more ABs…like Francoeur (ATL) with his .642 OPS and Carlos Gómez (MIN) with his .630 OPS, but Skip is significantly better than those “regular” starters. Hell, the Red Sox have given more ABs to Jacoby Ellsbury…and he’s got a .689 OPS. And Skip costs league minimum.
I say again, there are numerous teams who would love to have a player with Skip’s good offense, good defense, and ridiculous return on investment to slot into any of the three outfield positions on a daily basis.
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
points well made
i continue to be impressed with skip when i look at his accomplishments this year. and i’m glad ellsbury has a .689 OPS, mostly because i got so very tired of hearing about him during/after last year’s playoffs. maybe if skip had a ridiculous posting fee and changed his name to something Japanese-sounding, he’d get more attention? skipuke schumakudome?
i did the math on this a few weeks back
normalized Skip and ankiel by PA vs LHP, with the difference being filled in with Skip’s .430ish split vs LHP. It dropped his overall OPS about 19 points.
frustratingly, i can’t find the spreadsheet i used to do it, so I can’t update it using today’s stats (have a meeting here in 30 minutes i have to run to) but since IIRc he started most of the games this week vs LHP that ratio should only have decreased, especially since he raised his OPS vs LHP in that time frame (albeit by only 16 points).
the ******* plane has crashed into the mountain.
could you dumb that down a little for me?
i think you’re saying that skip has been surprisingly valuable overall, but i’m not sure that’s what your saying because it’s kind of over my head.
I'm saying basically what Mr Clean says above
he’s not really a “platoon player”. He’s been used quite a bit against LHP this year, much more than the average NL LHB. Had he gotten the handful of extra at bats against LHP that would make him a true “full time” player, it wouldn’t have changed his overall performance that much.
the ******* plane has crashed into the mountain.
Not sure I follow
If you give Skip another 100 ABs against LHPs and use his current split as a guide his overall slash line converts to .284/.341/.380/.721. Very MIFish.
I don’t understand how a guy with a .888 OPS v. RHPs and .446 OPS v. LHPs could be considered anything but a platoon player. He has been totally useless against LHPs. That OPS is.126 lower than Iz2 vs. RHPs – ugh.
I wish I had either the time or the data, but I would like to know the Cardinals W-L in games Schumaker and Duncan have started against LHPs. Probably none too good.
The silver lining is that Skip gives you a very good pinch-hitter against righty relievers.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
i feel like sisyphus...
…and if you give him 400 additional PA’s against LHP his slash lines fall even further (to .636). 4000, even further (to .484)! 100 is a ridiculous, arbitrary number.
Skip has faced lefties in 124/519 PA’s, or 23.9% of his PA’s. Ankiel, who has not really been platooned, has faced 27.2. Let’s use sizemore as an additional example; he’s not a “platooned player” and has faced lefties in 181/634 PA’s, or 28.5.
Had skip faced LHP in the same % of PA’s as grady sizemore, who afaik is not a platooned player, it would have required 33 more PA over the course of the season vs LHP. Facing an additional 33 batters at a .446 OPS would turn him from a .784 OPS hitter to a .764 hitter, or roughly the equivalent of getting 4 fewer singles over the course of the year so far.
IIRC I added 27 in my original example, to match him with ankiel’s percentage of plate appearances vs lefties, merged into his splits from 22 aug.
Again:
- he’s had a higher percentage of PA’s vs LHP than the average LHB. The average LHB in the NL in 2008 faced LHP in 18% of their PA’s, skip, 23.9%.
- He’s had a very similar percentage of PA’s against LHP as other starting LH OF’s.
- Therefore, skip is not really a player who has been platooned this season. His numbers should not be considered unduly influenced by the fact that TLR has protected him from lefties, because he really hasn’t.
- yes, you might get more performance out of a lineup spot by platooning him more religiously than TLR has. but he’s a ~.770 OPS player when not platooned, not a .721 OPS player.
the ******* plane has crashed into the mountain.
Sorry I thought you were trying to compare him
to an actual everyday OF. 100 more ABs would put him among the league leaders, but he is a leadoff hitter on a team that scores a lot or runs. He is currently 84th in MLB in ABs which is not too many for a lead-off hitter who has been healthy and “not platooned.”
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
but,
his 100 extra ABs wouldn’t all be against lefty pitchers. To reach Sizemore’s ratio, for example, only half of his 100 at bats would be against LHP.
by chicagocardfan on Sep 5, 2008 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Well
I certainly can’t think of a single instance in which he hasn’t started againsta a righty.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
if he was an "actual, everyday OF",
like, uh, grady frigging sizemore, he’d have 33 more PA’s vs LHP and 66 more PA’s vs RHP. maybe more, since Skip is better at getting on base against RHP than Sizemore is (.398 OBP for schu vs RHP, vs .380 for sizemore in ’08).
the ******* plane has crashed into the mountain.
the only thing holding Skip back from being a ML starter
is his weakness against lefties… and some team may see a way to improve that for the right deal. I’d say Ankiel and Skip are about equally valuable trade chips all considered. and it would make more sense for us to keep Ank for at least one more year than to have Skip for 3 more years or what have you. or, perhaps we could trade both of them, mwuhhahah
it's time to bring the rock!!!!!!!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 5, 2008 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Skip leads the league in AVG for leadoff hitters and plays above average defense.
His only real wart is his inability to hit lefties. Which is compounded by the rest of this particular lineup’s inability to hit them. He’s not incredible but I’m sure Astros fans who have watched a season of Bourne, Abercrombie and Erstad in CF would love to have him.
albert's time horizon
I agree with you that the team shouldn’t be too deferential to TLR’s time horizon. He’s gonna be gone in a couple of years, and a player like Wallace just isn’t helpful to his goals; if it were up to TLR, players like Wallace (and others on his trajectory) could be traded for far less talented and older players simply because they can contribute more right now.
The time horizon I worry about is Albert’s. We have him under control for 3 more years, and those should be among the prime years of one of the best right-handed hitters in the game’s history. After that, there just aren’t any guarantees, and I think the team should keep in mind the fact that we may have only have 3 Albert-led Cards teams left.
I’m not saying that I know exactly what impact Albert’s potential departure should have on the construction of the team this winter and beyond, but I do feel strongly that it should have some impact. For example, a player who will be an excellent, grade-A player four years from now may be viewed as more expendable that a player who will be a very good, grade-B+ player in two years, as the latter player will be more useful during what we know will be the Pujols era.
I am convinced
That the move to draft Wallace was driven in part because the Cards think they could loose Albert.
I also think the recent unwillingness of the club to pay up for big time free agents is tied directly to the idea that the Cards want as much payroll flexibility in 2010 and 2011 to try and sign Albert to a new deal and having a productive farm system is the only way to afford the $25 million a season that it will cost.
I don't know
I think the Cards drafted Wallace because he was the best talent available, regardless of position. I read somewhere (too lazy to look it up) that the Cards were targeting a starting pitcher with their first pick, but were surprised when Wallace fell to them, so they took him. I don’t think they went into the draft wringing their hands and trying to find a replacement for Albert.
by Ray Lankford on Sep 5, 2008 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions
No I don't think they were explicitly looking for a replacement for Albert
But it is foolish to think that the Cards did not factor in the possibility of Albert leaving when evaluating Wallace and his purported defensive short-coming and whether Wallace’s D might require an eventual move to 1b.
Another thing to look at is...
Wallace could definitely play during the “Albert era.” He could be a stud hitting 3rd baseman for the Cardinals in 2010 when their current third baseman is…wait for it… a free agent. When Glaus hits free agency, the Cardinals will have drafted a player in 2008 who was the best hitter in the PAC-10 for 2 straight seasons. His offense was as polished as anyone in the draft that season…and he was a college graduate, so he was as ready as a player can be to go pro, entering a draft.
I believe they went for the biggest impact bat that was already the closest to making it.
That's crazy and totally speculative.
I don’t even live in STL and I know that he is entrenched in the community. He has business ventures, his wife is involved in events and orgs and he has access to top notch medical facilities for a special needs child. Plus he went to college in that area. He has always talked positively about the team and the city. And he signed a below market contract extension to stay. He’s not going anywhere anytime soon. Wallace was drafted because he was the best stick in the draft and the cards didn’t expect him to be there when they picked. Ankiel and Ludwick are both 30 and it’s likely one of them won’t be around when Wallace is ready to play every day. Wallace then moves to LF and the remaining of the two plays in RF.
all I said is that there are no guarantees after three years
which is neither crazy nor speculative. Actually, it’s more or less fact.
The team obviously should try to keep him around, and he would probably be receptive to the idea — but plenty of players with similar community ties (and his kids’ needs can be well covered in plenty of places) have left St. Louis and other cities. I certainly wouldn’t expect him to resign for anything other than market level . . .
Obviously you can expect whatever you like
and I am not going to make any kind of prediction myself. But the fact that he already signed one contract for below market makes it at least possible he may do so again.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Let LaRussa walk
Tony’s PR war with management started a little early this year. I’m tired of it. Management is committed to the build from within philosophy while Tony is a win now, damn the farm guy. Those two philosophies are not compatible.
while i dont think TRL is a "damn the farm guy"
all managers are “win now guys.” they don’t have the luxury not to be it is there job on the line. how many managers last more than 3 years at a job?
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
but mine was poseted one minute earlier
so that must mean i am smarter…or typed a shorter post…i’m not sure which.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
no, you are from iowa. automagically smarter
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Sep 5, 2008 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
sorry tony
There will be no major signings or trades this winter. There may be some minor ones.
The 25 man roster could look like this:
starting 8:
lf schu
2b lopez
Albert
rf luddy
3b glaus
cf rick
c molina
ss zobrist
bench:
barton
mather/duncan
miles
freese
larue
rotation
carp
wainman
welly
mcclellen
pineiro
closer
perez
Rasmus and Anderson start the season at AAA. Some one will need to be traded to get zobrist, Mather? Perez is the closer, but the bull pen is open. The pen may have Kinney and Johnson back. The pen is where the big improvement needs to be made. MI will get a little stronger, but no rafael furcal type signing. Looper will not be back unless he agrees to go to the pen, and Kennedy is gone too.
i think zobrist would be an interesting guy to get. still fairly young (27 this year i think)
he’s never hit that well in the majors yet, but the most at-bats he’s ever taken in a year is 183 (which is not nothing i admit; he’s never been a regular either). he’s also always been a very good hitter in the minors; lowest year-long OPS is around 850 i think. i know nothing about his defense.
also, if we can find a way to maintain a fairly studly overall outfield and our studly corner infield, we just don’t need world-beaters at both middle infield spots; what we need is solid hitting so there isn’t a gaping offensive ulcer spanning three lineup spots on any given night.
Amazingly small sample size...
His numbers in the minors are much better than anything in the Cardinal system (including Kozma), and he’s shown the ability to get on base while not striking out much.
I’d much rather have the Rays’ other SS prospect, Reig Brignac, because he’s still really young, is developing a bat, and is great with the glove, but he probably doesn’t help the Cardinals next year.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
It's gotta be pitching!
I don’t think that the guys surrounding Albert at the plate have been the problem. Everyone we’ve put before or after him this year has been a big upgrade from last season. Ankiel has been better than Edmonds, Glaus has been better than Rolen, and Ludwick’ ‘08 has bee better than Ludwick ’07. Our problem is that we keep losing in the 7th-9th innings. What are we up to now in pen losses? Almost 40!? If our pen blows only 20 games, which would not have been asking too much, then we are leading the division by 10 games. I think that the front office and management was caught off guard this year by how bad our bullpen was. Everyone talked at the beginning of the year about our pen being the most stable segment of our team and so nothing was really added to strengthen it. In my mind the only guy who had a better than expected year was Springer. Izzy, Franklin, Flores, and the rotating minor leaguers really struggled this year. Maybe next year ’s pen already appears better with the emergence of Motte and Perez, but it’s too late to bail us out now.
Now this i agree with
AJ Burnett is a guy the team should target. The starters of most of the recent playoff teams include power pitching in the rotation and in the pen. It seems we have some possible power arms for the pen next year. Augment that with a lefty and Kinney or some Springer types and you have the makings of a post-season staff. In addition, I just don’t think adding power to the offense is what we need. The team is at the top of the league in BA and SLUG but hasn’t translated that into runs. I think adding top of the order on base guys in front of Albert is imperative. If we have two high OBA guys in front of Albert then we can drop Ludwick, Glaus and Ank to the 4,5,6 spots with Molina and Lopez (or someone else) at the end of the order. That’s not a bad mix.
Loses when leading after 6 innings
They showed a stat during the 4-3 loss to ARI. We lead the NL with 17 losses (ARI is 2nd with 15) when leading after 6 innings. Not quite 40 losses you mention, but this doesn’t count games where the other team tacks on a few insurance runs against the bullpen. I pulled the following from the STL press pass of Sept 3rd
- 63-12 when leading after 7 innings
- 65-4 when leading after 8 innings
- 7-10 when tied after 7 innings
- 9-8 when tied after 8 innings
- 5-42 when trailing after 7 innings
- 1-52 when trailing after 8 innings
- 15-19 Final at-bat decisions
- 6-10 in Extra Innings
Combine a bullpen that is inconsistent holding leads with an offense that seems to shut down after the sixth inning and that is the 2008 STL Cards.
future redbirds
had a big discussion in the comments regarding mac converting as a starter. their main complaint was that he is a massive injury risk (and could possibly be hurt right now) that will be exacerbated if he’s converted.
I have been arguing all season for him as a starter but....
the more I think about it the more I would rather keep him as a reliever and just use someone else
yeah
moving him to starting brings the same worries to mind for me. he’s already showing signs of fatigue and he hasn’t been a starter this year.
it's time to bring the rock!!!!!!!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 5, 2008 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I like that he uses Albert as an example of 'legit help' in the system
especially when he was planning to demote Albert his rookie year in favor of giving Bobby Bonilla a last hurrah.
Revisionist history much, Tony?
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 5, 2008 10:13 AM EDT reply actions
No kidding
Thanks to Big Mac for talking him out of that one!
Also, a question every GM probably asks himself when he gets up in the morning:
I wonder how good our farm system would be if we had Albert Pujols in the minor leagues?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Or even better...
“Why the hell is that Pujols guy still in the minor leagues?”
Doesn’t Tony realize that if we had a guy like The Mang in the minors that he wouldn’t be in the minors any more?
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
No, he doesn't
because, as Hardcore pointed out, he was ready to send Pujols back down after a stellar spring in favor of Bobby Bonilla. Thank Christ Bobby Bo got hurt….
This is why I don’t trust TLR to rate prospective talent — he doesn’t have a good track record of it, and feels like guys need to earn their spots. That may have been the case 40 years ago, but it isn’t entirely the case now. Sometimes you just have to go with your young guys and let them struggle with growing pains. There are plenty of good vets on this club to help them out.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
with the surgery I doubt anyone would give up much for him
There hasn’t been a healthy dunc since early 07, and he just had surgery that no major athlete has ever had. I know I wouldn’t give up more than a fringe talent at best for him.
Seattle had Vidro
I cant imagine Toronto has a good DH
Royals maybe?
who is the twins DH?
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com
www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
NYbirdfan
Are you suggesting that Ben Zobrist from TB is coming over or just that you want him to come over. I know he’s a rookie but a 222 average looks like the kind of production that we are trying to escape from.
Loss of credibility
I’m sorry, but who is TLR to whine about competing for first place? This is a guy who stayed beholden to Izzy and Franklin for far, far too long while an impact player was available from the system to fill the glaring hole in the bullpen. Sure, Perez blew the save versus Arizona and probably would’ve blow a few more if he’d been installed as closer sooner. But, I’d wager that we’d be in the thick of the playoff hunt had TLR cut bait on his high mileage, fading veterans sooner and gone with the impact, Wainwright-type reliever he had at his disposal from within the system.
I’ve had it with his blathering about “impact” help. The reason this club underperformed is TLR’s loyalty to washed up veterans, which cost us countless wins in the late innings. Even if we boil it down to 9th inning implosions, we would be neck-and-neck for the playoffs.
I’m sorry. I’m just frustrated. School started up. I’ve only watched two games in the last two weeks, the blowouts against Milwaukee and Houston.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I agree
it's time to bring the rock!!!!!!!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 5, 2008 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree 100% with TLR.....
And I find it funny that more people from the board don’t.
Going into this season, we were thought to be a pretty bad team. A team that had alot of question marks, and that would rely on alot of young players. Everybody said wait until ‘09, that’ll be the year we challenge.
Well, we have been better in ‘08 than just about anybody expected. We ARE in the playoff mix, and we’re one good win streak away from probably being within a game of Milwaukee. So with very few lossed from the roster, why wouldn’t we try to make an impact acquisition next year? That’s been the plan all along, so why is it such a bad idea now?
I still can’t believe how some of you lust after our prospects. I understand Rasmus, and Wallace, and to a lesser extent Anderson. But Todd. Garcia. Jones. Those guys are all replaceable, pretty easily.
The build from within philosophy doesn’t mean you fill every single roster spot with someone from your organization. Nobody does that. In fact, I’d argue that we’re probably somewhere in the middle of the pack if you look at % of homegrown talent making up the roster for much of the year. And we have additional help on the way. But why does that mean we can’t go acquire ONE or TWO players, either by FA or trade? How would that gut our system, and kill the build from within philosophy? It wouldn’t, plain and simple. That system is as much about drafting and developing players better, as it is about not dealing them.
On top of that, having a window of opportunity trumps, or at least equals any long-term plans. Pujols isn’t ancient, obviously, but I doubt he wants to stick around to win later. Carpenter isn’t a spring chicken. Neither is Springer who I think we’ll see back. Glaus isn’t young.
We’re SO close to having a team that can contend for being the best in the NL. Heck, I could argue that if not for injuries this year, we’d be leading the wildcard race. No reason to stand pat once again, and make 2010 an even bigger rebuild, as we’re set to lose or have to make decisions on a number of good players.
Todd played at three levels this year
How is that easily replaced? You don’t normally find pitchers that move up that quickly in the minors.
Two things.....
I didn’t realize playing at multiple levels helps anybody win a game. That means nothing, other than he might have been started at the wrong level.
I think his ceiling is low. To me the dude is a 3/4 starter at best, or kind of a 6th/7th inning, or long reliever guy. We have several guys like that in the system, and they are some of the easiest to find in the FA market, or to draft in upcoming drafts.
you don't get impact players
for prospects who are replaceable. the only way they are going to land an impact player is by trading an impact prospect like rasmus or wallace. so that’s the choice you have to ask yourself -- which would you rather have, a year of matt holliday (to toss out a name), or 6 years of colby rasmus? i think reasonable people can disagree on that one, but i don’t think matt holliday will bring a world championship to st louis next year. i do think it’s possible rasmus will help bring one to st louis at some time in the next 6 years.
There are so many options.....
That we can’t discuss them all. Am I for trading Rasmus for Holliday? I dunno. Depends on so many other things, that you can’t look at a small piece of the puzzle like that to decide. If we did that, we’d likely have to move another OF. What if we could get a pretty solid SS for Ankiel, or Skip, or Ludwick, or one of those guys and a mediocre prospect? Then all the sudden you upgraded and OF spot, and upgraded at SS, and you pretty much only lost Rasmus.
Or maybe you don’t trade for the impact bat, maybe you sign one in FA…..and then you make a few smaller trades, not moving our big 3-5 spects, to fill in the holes.
Not everybody that is advocating a move this offseason is saying we must move Rasmus for somebody. Heck, if Wallace could land the same talent Rasmus could, I think we’d be fools to at least not explore it. I love the potential that Wallace has, but he is far from untradeable in my opinion.
agreed --- it depends on the deal
there are many circumstances under which i could support a trade of one of our prospects -- even rasmus. but it would have to be a deal that paid off beyond 2009. and by his own admission in the post-dispatch today, tony “isn’t a long-range thinker” (direct quote). he’s only focused on 2009. what i’m saying is that if the cards only focus on 2009 this off-season, to the exclusion of 2010 and beyond, they will probably be sorry. if they are lucky enough to find a deal that pays dividends not only next year but also for 2-3 years beyond that, it’s worth considering. but tony’s only focused on 2009, and that’s where i disagree with him.
I really doubt TLR.....
Thinks that management is going to move Rasmus for a guy that will only be around for a year or two. But there is a middle ground. Obviously you don’t trade him for a 34 year old guy. And obviously you do listen if you can get back another 22-25 year old that is ready to contribute at a more needing position. But what about a guy that is 28-30? I dunno. Those guys, not looking at contracts, could be around for 5-7 years. Then you just have to weigh those offers independently, IMO.
but those 28-30 are not going to be around for 5-7 years
sure we may re-sign them but you are not trading for those years, you are only trading for the years he has left on the current contract. otherwise you could just wait until they are a free agent and sign them then without losing talent you already have. Most players become free agents for the first time in that age range and demand big dollars with the type of bat we would be seeking. by keeping the talent you have in the farm you get 6 cheap years and the ability to sign a free agent from the money you save. which is a lot smarter than giving away your cheap talent and have to find another expensive bat to fill his spot on top of the money you are paying your newly traded for acquisition, imo.
obviously, there are exceptions. if Hanley Ramirez was offered i would give up my the farm and maybe my family to get him. but of players that would be realistically offered in a trade i cant think of anyone that would be worth giving up our top prospects and their 6 cheap years.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
LB
I agree with you that Rasmus or Wallace + for Holliday or something similar would be a sketchy move. I also think that with MO at the reigns that is not something we have to worry about. DeWitt has placed the team in his hands and MO obviously has a plan and a direction in which he is taking the franchise. It something I feel is a good match, as opposed to the bickering and difference in philosophy between team steinbrenner and cashman in NY. However, I feel there are a couple of things to consider.
1. This is not a team that has shown a willingness to spend in competition with teams like the Mets, Dodgers and Cubs. The Mets and the Cubs are going to become Boston and the Yankees of our league – consistently outbidding other teams for elite FA’s. Add to this that they are going to be bidding on the players that the Big Fish are passing on (NYY, Boston, LAA, etc.) and the options for the rest of the NL are less than desirable. It’s not going to get easier to improve the team around Pujols via FA in the years to come.
2. This team waited 40 years for a second chance at a player to replace Musial in the person of Albert. I dont know that my kids will ever see a player like either of them play for STL. There are always good and even great players who come along, but Pujols is a generational figure and while we have him I think that warrants some special decisions, like trading LaPorta for Sabathia in the way the Brewers did.
Now I’m not saying we should trade Rasmus or Wallace plus a combination of other prospects for a rental or even one year of immediate impact. But if a deal can be made that nets us something along the lines of what we got in Rolen or Edmonds I think it has to be considered. 3-5 years of elite production starting on opening day 2009 with Albert is worth risking 5 extra years of elite production after Albert is gone. The big problem is that finding a trade partner who can offer that kind of package (a MLB ready stud with 3 years remaining) is not something that is easy or even possible to find. I’m just saying Mo should be open and receptive, which Im sure he is.
The thing that would solve this issue is for DeWitt to just open the pocketbooks for one or two big contracts while Pujols is here and actually tell the fans that this is an exception to the rule. He is not going to spend like the Yankees and we shouldnt expect it, but while we have PUjols around he is going to make an exception or two. I think the fans would understand – call me naieve.
You are never impressed
I haven’t seen you praise one thing about the StL club, I understand not having rose colored glasses but it seems you might be taking it a bit too far and trying to look through dirty classes. Todd has a high ceiling even if the chances of him reaching it are low, same goes for Mort and Lynn.
That might be YOUR opinion.....
But I’ve never seen anybody, or any publication project Todd or Lynn as a top of the rotation guy. Please, prove me wrong.
A 3/4 Starter for the minimum for multiple years
Or, Pineiro for $13M at two years? Using the farm-grown talent to fill holes frees up salary to pursue impact FA’s.
Also, I’d point out that not a lot of publications were projecting Wainwright as a #1.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
JP's contract isn't the norm......
And my point is, we have other options for that role. Boggs. Garcia. Parisi. Heck Thompson still falls into that, though he’s older. Lynn would be ready in a few years. I hardly think moving Todd is going to kill the system.
It won't
But, he’s 22 and moved rapidly through the system. He had 11.52 K/9 in high A and near 8 K/9 in AAA this season. He could be starting in 2010. While I don’t believe him to be untouchable, I think he has high upside (to use Hubie Brown parlance).
Unlike you, I think Wallace is untouchable right now. He is on track to take over 3B upon the departure of Glaus and is flat-out raking the baseball. I get a warm feeling inside (like its Christmas) thinking about he and Pujols back-to-back in the lineup.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
soonerfan, here's where i don't follow you
you say that todd is not a special player, but if that’ s true then what kind of return do you expect to get for him? do you expect that he is going to bring back a star player in a trade?
Come on.....
I’ve said NUMEROUS times that I don’t expect to land CC Sabathia for Todd. Maybe some team really values him though, or has a void of that type of player in their system. Or maybe we just use him to fill a hole. If we move Wallace for a stud SS (just giving a what if), then maybe a package of Todd and something else gets us a good 3B option after Glaus. Or maybe he lands us a MR that is more ready to contribute next year. Heck, I don’t know. I’m not advocating trading just to trade. We don’t have to move a ton of guys. I’m just saying that our system is in good enough shape that we could move 2-3 guys, possibly including 1-2 quality guys, and still be in good shape.
The Brewers move their Rasmus for what? A rental player that gives them a shot at a title. I’m not even advocating that, I don’t really want a rental. But why did Milwaukee do that? Because they are drafting better these days. Well, I think we are too, and I don’t want to see the window of opportunity close next year.
I don't think Wallace.....
Is going to be any better of a hitter than Ludwick was this year, and only marginally better than Glaus, all said and done.
But the thing I do like about him is that I think he “fits” better. He should be a low K, mid to high BB guy, who will hit for a higher average, and maybe 20-25 HR’s some day. I definitely see a place in the lineup for him, but he still has alot to prove. What if he has a hicup in the minors next year? Might throw off the replacing Glaus part. What if he proves he can’t stick at 3rd? Still alot of questions.
.970 OPS and 32 HR at 3B is A-Rod production
If he is as good as Ludwick at the dish, that he should absolutely be untouchable. A-Rod has a career .969 OPS and, coincidentally, has 32 HR this year. If Wallace gives us that, then he is a crown jewel.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
in addition to bgh above
If he’s marginally better than Glaus this year, he’s the best offensive third baseman in the National League not named David Wright — which also makes him untouchable.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
good point
troy glaus has been better than he has been given credit for being. “marginally better” than Glaus IS david wright, at least looking at GPA. (IE, weighted OPS)
Only Chipper has been better than glaus and wright in the NL by GPA.
the ******* plane has crashed into the mountain.
I was looking at
defense too…I would guess that Wright would be better defensively than Wallace at third base — he’s no Gold Glover, but he has shown a bit of range at the position.
With the stick, I think he’ll be better than Wright, at least in terms of slugging and OBP.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Who?
Do you go after an OF replacement for Ankiel or Ludwick (who will each likely hit 30 HR) or Skippy (who is in the top 20 of the batting title race)? First base is taken, as is third and catcher. That leaves SS and 2B. Our 2B production hasn’t been horrible, as LB notes, which means that the benefit of adding a player would be minimal and not worth the cost in prospects. This leaves SS. Were any SS even available? I don’t recall even reading a rumor.
We are shadding a lot of contract obligations this offseason, but where would an impact player be installed? MIF is the place, and I think we should pursue an upgrade, but I don’t see much on the FA or trade horizon.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
You don't think Ankiel can be upgraded?
Too many fans are in love with him b/c of his story, and his HR’s. I’d take Bay over Ankiel right now. Our lineup has too many guys that are streaky. Glaus. Ludwick to a lesser extent. And Ankiel. Right in the middle of the lineup. I think Rick is the easiest to replace, b/c he doesn’t walk much, isn’t a threat against lefties, seems to have some issues late in games, and is a bit more of a free swinger. Holliday would have been an upgrade there too.
Everybody likes to point out that we have the 3rd best lineup in the NL (I think that is right) as far as runs scored. Then why do we seem so streaky? I think there are things that can be done to make the lineup better, and more consistent. Obivously MI is a big part in that, and I never said we HAD to do something in the OF. I’d like to, but MI is the more pressing need. 2B may be fine, if we had a decent hitting SS, but we don’t. So one of the two needs a major upgrade to compensate for the other one.
Skip is the easiest to replace, IMO
He really doesn’t hit lefties, at all. (.180 BA) He has an OPS of .784 for a LFer and is an average fielder.
Ankiel has an OPS of .854, Bay is at .885 and cannot play CF. Bay is average in the outfield, too, while Ankiel is above average. Bay also makes ten times as much as Ankiel for roughly equal offensive production and slightly less defensive ability. Ankiel is also a year younger (and far younger developmentally). Ankiel has had 71 BB this season and Bay has had 68 BB. Bay walks less than Ankiel. I wouldn’t take Bay over Ankiel.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
exactly
soonerfan has lots of opinions, but few facts to back them up.
it's time to bring the rock!!!!!!!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 5, 2008 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
You keep choosing the wrong comparisons
Jason Bay isn’t going to make this team any less streaky — he’s a streaky hitter in his own right. You need to do some research with your rants — name some SS and 2B players that are available, look at what those teams might need that the Cardinals have, and then propose a deal.
It’s a foolhardy exercise to simply foam at the mouth about acquiring someone but then not offering possible deals to get that done.
You said above that we can’t discuss them all — sure we can!!! There isn’t a limited amount of space on this blog. You could have discussed 7 or 8 possible deals that make sense for both sides in the amount of time you’ve spent saying the same thing over and over and over and over…………
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Streaky
Also, a little while ago I did a breakdown of the average MLB club scoring totals by games scoring numbers of runs and we aren’t any streakier than all of baseball was from 2000 through 2004. Baseball is an up-and-down endeavor over 162 games.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I don't need to do any research.....
Considering my ENTIRE point is just that we should make some moves to be in a good position to win NEXT year, and if a deal presents itself that involves Rasmus, so be it. I haven’t advocated any specific deals today.
That's fine...
but what everyone else is saying is that we’re already in a good position to win next year and that there aren’t any “impact” players available who are exceedingly better than what we already have at a cheaper cost. We’re one of the best offensive ballclubs in the league this year, and if our starters stay healthy next season we might have the best staff in the National League already on the roster. If that’s the case than why trade away guys who are projected to be really good MLB players for marginally better rentals for 2009?
I don’t think there’s any need to move Rasmus when there are other good players in the outfield, third base, and catcher that are blocked at the big league level.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Ok
so above I mentioned the possiblity of Brian Roberts who is a FA at the end of next year. What would you offer up for him?
The O's are set at OF & C - need MI and pitchers
They traded Tejada and have had a rotating suckhole at SS this year. They will try to sign Roberts (a huge fan favorite and the owner loves him) over the winter, then may trade him during the season if they fail to get an extension. The only matchup in a trade would be the young arms (Todd, Boggs, Garcia) since we have a MI void as well.
Mora is 35
I think a package involving Freese or Craig might get things started. The problem is if we dont part with Rasmus or Wallace (which I dont advocate) then you have to trade a lot quantity.
No, you'd have no idea
3 games over 162 isn’t enough to tell you which team is more talented. About all that tells you is which teams won more games. In a different year, a bounce of the ball, an injury here or whatever makes that unanswerable. Same with SOS, weather, park factors, pitching matchups, etc. All I’m saying is that if someone put the over/under on the Cubs at 100 wins next year I’d put a bunch of money on the under and it would be a smart bet.
What I’m saying is that it’s very likely that this is their peak year in terms of wins. A lot of things went right. I don’t think they’ll be quite as strong on paper next year, but even if they are we have to assume zero luck. They opposite could happen and they come up with 85 wins.
And of course, who knows what their roster looks like in the spring.
Not sure what I would offer.....
But I wouldn’t offer Rasmus or Wallace.
Outside of that, depending on certain conditions, there isn’t any one player I wouldn’t part with, though including Anderson, I’d have to know what else he could fetch. As fans, we aren’t really privy to that info.
I replied to your comment above
and I listed what I’d be comfortable giving up to get him.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
the only CF's in baseball
whose 2008 seasons would be an upgrade over the performance Ankiel has given us this season are carlos beltran, curtis granderson and Grady Sizemore, and they are not readily available.
And that is after we’ve given ankiel 100 or so PA’s while injured.
the ******* plane has crashed into the mountain.
I think you are overselling
how good Ankiel’s been this year. He’s 8th in MLB in RARP for CF, and Dewan has him at -13 on the season. Something like 9th or 10th in value overall just eyeballing it. By rate he might move up a slot or two.
Overall
Ankiel’s defense hasn’t been as good as a 37 year old Jim Edmonds has been for the Cubs. He’s made some great plays, but the defensive metrics aren’t all that kind to him, and when I look at Dewan’s list and compare it to what I see with my own eyes, I think he’s spot on.
His bat is a plus over a lot of other CF’s, but Rasmus will be playing CF when he comes up and Rick will be moving to right. His defense will be better served over there, but if a team wants him in a deal I’d be willing to part with him more than I would Ludwick at this point.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
give him another season
he’ll be better
it's time to bring the rock!!!!!!!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 5, 2008 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions
he was a lot better before he got hurt
IIRC through the end of June he was right up at the top, defensively. For a long while he was the top defender at any position in the league by RZR.
the ******* plane has crashed into the mountain.
even now
by RZR, if he had gotten to 6 more BIZ plays, he’d be the top-ranked CF in the league. That’s how much the sample size affects defensive stats.
the ******* plane has crashed into the mountain.
We're talking about
what has happened, so I’m not sure what the SSS has to do with it. And FWIW, RZR is not something I’d bother looking at if you have PMR, UZR or +/-.
And part of fielding a winning team/franchise.....
Is lining things up. It does you no good to always be one player short of really competing. I don’t mind the occassional rebuilding/retooling year, if the flip side of that is 3-5 years of good baseball with a complete team. But if we wait 2-3 years for the spects to be ready, we’ll a) need to wait another 2-3 for them to be seasoned, and b) likely be looking at replacements for Carp and Welly, and our other OF’s.
Oh....
And my original thought I wanted to note here is that your manager falls into this category too. Why build for the future (which I hate those words) with a manager like TLR?
We are competing
And we should be in a better position today than we are. We were one player short—a closer—but our manager wouldn’t promote the impact player we have in our system to the job when the problem was initially diagnosed. Instead, he remained devoted to high mileage veterans and surrendered numerous 9th inning leads, which have come back to haunt us now.
Our OF production has been tremendous. Our 1B production has been otherworldly. Our 3B production has been top 5 in all of baseball. Our catcher is hitting over .300 as is the 2B hydra. We could use an upgrade at SS. I’d be open to a trade if we can get a multiple year upgrade there. Same thing with pitching.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
that is
in my mind, the only major failure of TLR, is the bullpen. granted he didn’t have a lot of control over that, but his inability to use the right guys to end the game has costed the team a lot of losses… but then again, so has our starters not putting in a ton of innings.
it's time to bring the rock!!!!!!!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 5, 2008 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you can add to that his stubborn
refusal to disable injured players (Duncan, Wellemeyer, Isringhausen, Ankiel, etc.) and his penchant for playing either Chris Duncan or Skip Schumaker against LHPs.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
yep
he doesn’t seem to have a good grasp on when guys are truly hurt; although, that’s not really his job
it's time to bring the rock!!!!!!!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 5, 2008 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
He promoted him when he thought he was ready.
Funny how people like to look back and question decisions that at the time appeared right. I, and many others, didn’t think Perez was ready earlier this year. Some of that was experience, some of it had to do with his slider, and some of it was likely mental.
funny
it's time to bring the rock!!!!!!!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 5, 2008 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
and some of it was
that he wasn’t given the opportunity to pitch in the ninth in a save situation. You just can’t evaluate a closer by how he throws in the sixth inning.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
especially a guy who is used to being a closer his whole career
it's time to bring the rock!!!!!!!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 5, 2008 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes you can.....
That is ridiculous.
Most young closers show success in other roles before taking over as closer. From what you are saying, there must be boatloads of young closers that either a) stepped right into that role, or b) had mediocre results in other roles and were handed the closer job.
Then maybe we should try Jimenez in save situations?
He might be the greatest closer EVAR!!!
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
Sooner,
How about you back this up for a change? Can you name a premier closer who came up and was put in the sixth inning? Todd Worrell went from AAA closer to MLB closer very nicely. I believe K-Rod did the same. Didn’t Zumaya as well or he was at least the eighth inning guy.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
This is the first month or so that Zumaya has sniffed the 9th
He’s always been a 7th or 8th inning guy while Todd Jones pitched the ninth.
So he should have been starting at Memphis from the beginning?
Riiiiiiiiight….
No way was he even going to start the season at Springfield.
How horrible - he wants to win!
I read the newspaper article and find nothing wrong with LaRussa’s comments. Hey, the guy wants to win NOW.. Gosh, what a terrible thing to say!
He sees the competition taking risks signing “impact” players and then beating his team with them. For that he gets chastised here because the folks on this board would rather sit with their thumbs up their asses and do little except sign some low-priced players who might help us.. Fine – just keep HOPING players stay healthy (good luck with that) and have career years and then maybe we’ll win a pennant again. Keep dreaming.
In today’s game, management has to take some risks here and there. Not all will pan out, but a lot will. Sit back, be afraid to do anything dramatic – and watch the teams pass you by, like this season. If you don’t sign any “impact” players this winter, OK, but at least be aggressive, give it a sincere effort and show you want to win, FO. That’s all TLR is asking. Good for him! I’m glad someone wants to do more than just HOPE that everything comes up roses .
BTW, did TLR’s friendship and loyalty to a guy who was washed up (Isringhausen) cost us dearly? Yeah, it sure did, but a lot of people on these boards were still backing Izzy, too, even after his May meltdown, if I recall.
lose the "thumbs up asses" rhetoric cc
if you disagree w/ me or anyone else on the board, you’re entitled to your opinion. but maybe i’m right and you’re wrong. no need to get all bent out of shape about it.
You're right
Please accept my apology. That was out of line.
by ccthemovieman on Sep 5, 2008 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Negative comments
about Mozeliak and Luhnow are always shot down on this blog. There seems to be an unstated agenda. Let’s hope they lead us to many WS titles and justify their sacredness.
by vinniefromjersey on Sep 5, 2008 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
The opposite argument would be that
they are not as good as their predecessors. Is that your opinion?
No, Walt needed to go,
but why are they above criticism for what they do (or don’t do)? I’m a Cardinal fan- I hope they turn out to be the best thing that ever happened to the team.
by vinniefromjersey on Sep 5, 2008 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
i don't know...
i seem to remember some shots are MO for our inactivity at the trade deadline, sometimes coming from posters who are otherwise supporters of the new build-from-within direction.
i think we can all agree that the blog, in general, probably leans to a particular direction, but i really don’t think most of the opinion around here does so irrationally or anything.
vinny, mo has gotten tons of criticsm here
he’s been criticized re-signing pineiro, for bringing back miles, for spending $3m on springer; for bringing in izturis. when they didn’t go after lohse this spring, that was criticized too. the feilipe lopez signing wasn’t well received here. those are just off the top o me head.
i happen to agree w/ the general philosophy mo has displayed so far, which is patience. i disagree w/ those who are impatient, and i think a lot of the criticism is misguided. but there’s no “agenda” here.
You're right.
In reflection, I’ve seen criticism. I too agree with the general philosophy. My frustration is that it was obvious in May that help was needed in relief and none was obtained from outside the organization. It hasn’t been fair to Perez to throw him in there just yet. As stated in my comment below, he needs to work on a second pitch. No one knows except Mo what was available and what the prices were.
On another topic, you stated before the season the biggest question for the immediate future of the organization was the return of Carp. Has it been answered? What are your thoughts?
by vinniefromjersey on Sep 5, 2008 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
i still think carp is the key
and it looks as if that question is going to be hanging out there until next year. personally i’ve been impressed w/ what i’ve seen - his velocity looks good, his pitches have the same movement they used to, his ability to get swing/misses and weak contact were all much more in evidence than i had anticipated. we still don’t know (or even have much clue) if he can stay out there for 180 innings, however. but at least we know he still has the ability to pitch at a very high level; we didn’t know if we’d be getting back a #1-type pitcher or a #3, and it looks like we might have lucked out in that regard.
On the contrary
Mo has taken his fair share of heat on this blog, IMO. Not as much as TLR maybe, but he’s far from a sacred cow.
"Cross a lawyer with the Godfather, make you an offer you can't understand" - Don Henley
by Futility Infielder on Sep 5, 2008 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
You're right
those guys have NOTHING to do with the boatload of talented prospects in the Cardinal system right now.
Nobody here is saying that every prospect is untouchable — just that the club needs to be prudent and not just trade prospects for rentals or solo years from fading veterans. I think the current club could contend next year with a better bullpen and one possible trade or FA signing to improve the middle infield. Most of us don’t see what LaRussa is talking about when he says impact player. Better health and a bit better luck next year will probably put the Cards in contention for the division. Milwaukee and Chicago can’t sustain the rosters that they currently have.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I believe he means a closer.
A lengthier comment is below.
by vinniefromjersey on Sep 5, 2008 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Yet on the other hand.....
Bashing TLR and Duncan, two of the best ever at their jobs, is totally accepted.
i am as big of TLR and Duncan fan as any
but they deserve to be held accountable and that are what most of us do. some take it to the extreme with either their bashing or their blind following but most everyone here stays pretty level headed about it, in-game thread not withstanding.
for the record i don’t think there is anyone out there that would be better as a duo than TLR and Dunc for this franchise. all mangers have their strengths and weaknesses i just think Tony and Dave’s have more of the latter.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
I think that your definition of bashing is very relative
I really don’t see any kind of “bashing”, just mindful criticism
it's time to bring the rock!!!!!!!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 5, 2008 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
It is far easier to "bash" TLR and Duncan
because we see, especially with TLR, the fruits of their labor everyday. They don’t broadcast GM calls and player development staff meetings. You know, if your only agenda is that TLR is always right, just exactly why do you come here?
I am all for your presence and frequently enjoy your posts, but I think the reason many of us criticize TLR is because we think he could do better. Just because a guy has been successful doesn’t mean he doesn’t have room for improvement. Albert would probably be the first to tell you he could do even better than he has so far in his spectcular career.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
news flash!!!
There is not one manager in the game who thinks about 3-4 years down the line……….
Their job is never safe and they are there to win each and every year.
Look Larussa is short sighted as hell, but do you blame him?
Look at Buckshowalter he was patient with the Yankees and Dbacks and he got screwed for it.
This is a great debate.
The front office, manager, fans, and players are never on the same page…..
It’s really fun to follow… another good post by lboros.
and it's good that way
Having a team in constant rebuild mode sucks. Have a team that sells off all of this talent to make a run the second they get above .500 also sucks.
The key difference in...
the Harden and CC additions is that Milwaukee and Chicago both are at the peak of the win-now curve with their current teams…especially Chicago. Chicago has several guys on the team with long-term contracts that are on the wrong side of their prime. Milwaukee has plenty of talent offensively to compete over the long haul, but can’t be sure they’ll have the pitching next year to back it up (Sheets is a FA, Suppan’s another year older). The Cards don’t lose anyone significant this year…and stand to lose only Glaus next year with three potential replacements a year or less away.
to disagree slightly
I’d say Chicago has at least another year on their “win now” peak.
Maybe, I’m misinterpreting. But by “peak” I’m taking that as they can only go down. Maybe that peak lasts a little longer than one year? Typically, I always like to look at it as a “window”. But there can definitely be a “peak” inside a “window”. I just think that will be next year for Chicago.
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
I think they'll be
the favorites, but they aren’t likely to be as good as they are this year. 5 returning position players are on the wrong side of 30.
Ryan Freaking Dempster has a 150 ERA+. Z and Lilly have been about what you should expect. Marquis has an ERA+ over 100. No injuries until this week; four guys with 25+ starts. Gallagher, Hill and Marshall are all above average in their starts, and of course Harden has been lights out for nine games.
If this isn’t their peak, then you are basically projecting 100+ wins true talent for 2009.
Well that in itself is the grey area
I guess you predict them to be worse next year, and I think they’ll be about the same. I mean they may not win the same about of games, but they’ll be in the ballpark. But, i think they’ll be the favorites again next year and should win the division.
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
The interesting thing to me
is that if you accept the idea that giving starting pitchers a 4 or 5 year contract is bad ‘cause you always lose a year due to injury (as we probably learned with Carp) – I’m wondering if next year is Zambrano’s year to be out to injury now that he has a shoulder problem of some kind.
It's not really a grey
area, and we basically agree I think. On talent they might not be far off, but in results they probably will be. They are at the tail end of the distribution. Good team + luck = one of the best records in the league. Look at some projection models; you just don’t see average W totals in the 100+ range.
Wins is not really a good standard to use
It’s relative to their competition. Would you really say a team that wins 92 is worse (or on the downturn) compared to a team that wins 95 in a different season against different competition? To mean that’s more a reflection of margin of error.
I’d agree that if the difference was like 10 games or more, but I don’t see them dropping that far if much at all.
But, ultimately you’re right. We are agreeing, we’re just hashing out the particulars.
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
You'd say they
probably are, but that’s about it. 3 games over 162 isn’t enough to tell you which team is more talented. About all that tells you is … well, which team won more games. In a different year, a bounce of the ball, an injury here or whatever makes that unanswerable. Same with SOS, weather, park factors, pitching matchups, etc. All I’m saying is that if someone put the over/under on the Cubs at 100 wins next year I’d put a bunch of money on the under and it would be a smart bet.
What I’m saying is that it’s very likely that this is their peak year in terms of wins. A lot of things went right. I don’t think they’ll be quite as strong on paper next year, but even if they are we have to assume zero luck. They opposite could happen and they come up with 85 wins.
And of course, who knows what their roster looks like in the spring.
I'd take the under on them winning 100 this year.
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
You may be right...
TB. I can also see Soriano, Lee, Ramirez and Zambrano begin to decline. Maybe next year is their “peak”, but maybe they won’t have Dempster anymore, either.
Lee's has already declined......sortof
Actually, Lee has pretty much become the guy they signed, as opposed to the guy he turned into after they signed him. He’s really out of place hitting 3rd, but he still hits for a high average, just not much power.
Right now they’re loaded. But, by saying peak, I think next year they have to go all in. Soriano’s been hurt twice this year (albeit one was a broken wrist so that’s more freak than anything), and Ramirez and Zambrano have both had health issues as well. This can and probably be more of an issue next year, but in all honesty they’re so deep throughout the lineup they can absorb an injury for a while.
The reason I’m saying it’s next year is because I’m looking at their contracts. In ‘09, they lose Marquis, DeRosa and Harden (if he doesn’t opt out this year)….oh, and Lou. In ’10, they lose Lee and Lilly. In ’11, they lose Ramirez and Fukudome (might be a good thing?). In ’12, Zambrano and then they have Soriano until 2052…..oops, I mean 2014.
This is only a look at the main guys under contract right now. At some point they’re gonna have to acquire a centerfielder and make a decision on Soto, Marmol and Theriot as well as consider replacing guys they’ve lost or re-signing their own free agents. It’s a tricky situation.
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
They have a ton of decisions to make
just going into next year, unless they feel that Pie is ready and that they’re going to bet the farm that Dempster is going to be this good for the next four years. They also don’t know when Rich Harden’s arm is going to fall off, but a lot of us predicted that when they traded for him.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Pie is their version of Anthony Reyes
Some fans love him, some hate him, and Lou seems to want nothing to do with him. They chose to call up Casey McGehee over him, and I don’t think McGehee was on the 40 man roster before September.
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
Define "Impact" Player
I was just looking at this list of Projected Elias Rankings and it looks like we had a number of “Impact Players”. Our starting lineup had four Type A players in Albert, Yadi, Ludwick, Glaus and a Type B in Ankiel. Aaron Miles just missed being a B and is ranked one spot ahead of Furcal. That’s 7 out of the 8 hitters in the lineup making some sort of an impact.
As for the pitchers Lohse is an A (two draft picks, oh yeah) and ranked ahead of Ben Sheets. Welly and Wainwright are B’s with Looper just missing joining them. Not great but better then most teams around.
Does Tony think we need to field a team of All-Stars at every position to win it again? Was he spoiled by MV3? Mr. Mo can’t get him everything can he? I wonder if Tony thinks Walt could? Looks like the annual LaRussa off-season dramafest has started early this year. It’s like having our very own Brett Farve.
"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin
by That's a Winner on Sep 5, 2008 11:11 AM EDT reply actions
His point
I think you just made his point for him. He has impact players yes, but together, they have not been good enough to make us a playoff team. The playoff’s are all that matters, and it appears that LaRussa feels one more “impact player” will make that difference.
Me, I feel that with Milwaukee standing to lose significant pitching, we are set to gain at least one spot within our division. If we marginally imrpove in the MIF and the pen, then we stand to make even larger gains. Thus, I dont think an “impact” player is necessary, but if it is trading prospects for a young major league provem/ready talent (I know harder said than done) I am not necessarily against it. I think the kind of trade I would have in mind would resemble the Miguel Cabrera deal. We trade Colby/Anderson/Todd/Herron for possibly Hanley Ramirez (still cost controlled) and Josh Johnson (injury risk but high upside) and maybe Renyel Pinto (decent bullpen arm) I am not saying this could be done exactly as I have put if forward, but I wouldnt mind something like it.
Hanley gives you a player that would satisfy the people who value cost controlled propects while providing a need for next year, making us an impact team, and finally providing the all-star dynamic figure whom we can build around when and if Pujols does eventually leave.
closer
IMO Tony wants an impact closer to replace Izzy (KRod?). They’d be going to the playoffs this year with one. I know everybody here is in love with Perez because he throws 96-97 consistently. The sad truth however, is that he does not have a good enough second pitch to be lights out. No matter how hard you throw, the second or third time major leaguers see the fastball they hit it. He may develop his slider to the point where he is consistent with it in terms of location and movement (see Lidge, Brad), but right now he isn’t, and TLR doesn’t want to go into ’09 hoping he develops it.
by vinniefromjersey on Sep 5, 2008 11:30 AM EDT reply actions
Getting K-Rod
would be an awful, awful move.
There is money to be better spent elsewhere.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
I'm not advocating it,
just trying to figure out what he means by “impact.”
by vinniefromjersey on Sep 5, 2008 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Judging by past TLR comments
“Impact player” may very well just mean “someone I have heard of before.”
But there are logical, top of the list type guys: Sheets, Burnett, Furcal, Cabrera, Peralta, to name a few.
I’m not advocating any of the really (except Burnett and maybe Peralta depending on the trading cost), but Perez was drafted specifically to be the post-Izzy era closer, and I can’t imagine the same front office who drafted him would quit that plan now.
I’d like to see the front office this winter try to improve the club as much as possible through free agency, and as little as possible by dealing minor leaguers. The system is in good enough shape now to lose out on a first round pick next year, but not in good enough shape to be dealing Rasmus, Anderson, Todd, Perez, Motte, Jones, etc.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
What about Mark DeRosa?
This guy is absolute MONEY. He is a FA in 2010. We can try the Felipe Lopez experience for a year, and if it doesn’t pan out, we can spend some of our Glaus money to bring DeRosa to man 2b.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
He'll be 35 at that point, FWIW
"Cross a lawyer with the Godfather, make you an offer you can't understand" - Don Henley
by Futility Infielder on Sep 5, 2008 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
DeRosa was a great signing for the Cubs.......
They paid premium for his versatility, and he has earned every penny of it. He doesn’t rely on any one skill-he should still be useful a few more years. He stays with the Cubs after 2010.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
I was really surprisd too
I honestly thought he’d never perform up to his Texas days, but he has. But if they want to sign him to another 3 year deal, then I’d be just fine with it. Of course, I’m sure he’d HAVE to take a no trade clause this time around. Hendry wouldn’t let him sign without one twice, would he?
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
i had to use imdb.com, so i can't take credit for knowing this off the top of my head...
but “sudden impact” is one of the clint eastwood “dirty harry callahan” movies.
van damme has, however, starred in “double impact” where he plays twins or something, and “sudden death” which as to do with terrorists at the stanley cup finals (not making this up in the slightest).
I always felt Van Damme was the king of the 2 name title movies
Blood Sport
Kick Boxer
Black Eagle
Death Warrant
Double Impact
Universal Soldier
Hard Target
Time Cop
Street Fighter
Sudden Death
The Quest
Maximum Risk
Double Team
Knock Off
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
honorable mention: steven seagal
Under Siege, Executive Decision, Exit Wounds, The Foreigner, Black Dawn, Shadow Man, Attack Force, Urban Justice, Pistol Whipped, Kill Switch.
what holds seagal back is that he has so many almost 2 word movie titles, and often the extra word is “of”, “to”, “for” etc. such as: Above the Law, Hard to Kill, Marked for Death, Out for Justice, On Deadly Ground, Fire Down Below, Half Past Dead, Out for a Kill, Belly of the Beast, Out of Reach, Into the Sun, Today You Die, Mercenary for Justice, Flight of Fury, and uh, The Onion Movie? i’ll have to check out that last one…
he also has a solo guitar cd
called the crystal caves or something ridiculous like that. it’s supposed to have a “zen” vibe, of course.
it's time to bring the rock!!!!!!!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 5, 2008 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
So Segal is the King of the 3 word movie title
I think I can accept that into my life.
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
What's all this about TLR
becoming a GM? Why the automatic assumption that he’d be good at that?
But … I’d encourage him to take a GM job this winter; then we can trade him an “impact guy” or two for HIS top prospects who “aren’t ready.” Problem solved!
i kinda thought they were being sarcastic about tlr as a GM?
as in, “man oh man, since tony knows so much about long term planning and putting a team together i guess he’ll just become a GM somewhere and show mozeliak how it’s done.”
so does the comment that TLR isn't "enamored" with any
position player at Memphis read as a slam on Rasmus?
personally I think our outfield is lined up well for next year with
ankiel – rasmus – ludwick as the starters
skippy as the 4th
mather as the 5th
barton in AAA (or switch with mather)
that being said, if we deal for a real SS, we likely will have to part with some of this OF depth. Cabrera will be on the FA market and would be an upgrade (who wouldn’t?). Or dealing with LAA, Atlanta or TB for a AAA guy.
If the team has money to spend (and I think they will/do), I wouldn’t mind signing that fat pitcher on the Brewers
you are reading too much into "enamored"........
He knows Rasmus is very good, however he knows that if there is going to be a “major” move mostlikey Rasmus is the center piece.
He is not taking a shot at Colby’s talet……He is taking a shot at pretty much everyone else saying besides Colby and maybe Anderson(need to see more) there is not a guy who has exceptional overall tools.
Its true
perhaps slam was too strong a word
“I would think the idea this winter is to make some significant additions so we can be there”
It just seems that TLR is not keen on the idea of our additions coming from within. Since Rasmus is the cream of the crop , it seems he doesn’t consider Rasmus the ‘impact’ addition he wants. couple this with the “didn’t earn promotion statement.” and it seems safe to assume Rasmus is not pencilled into TLR’s opening day starting lineup.
one other ‘interesting’ rasmus side reference (I think from Birdhouse but I can’t find it today) was an interview with one of the Memphis owners. Background: They had suggested last spring that they might not want to renew their affiliation with the Cards, feeling that the Cards were not giving them players that were high end prospects or that gave them a competitive team.
The recent article was much more upbeat. The Memphis owners were very happy with the team they had this year and felt the Cards had rebuilt their system to the extent that they were likely to remain competitive in the future. However he specifically mentioned expecting to see Freese, anderson, and Rasmus back to start next season which he felt would ease the fans adjustment to the new team next year. I would assume he got this impression second hand from Luhniak……………..maybe I shouldn’t read much into it but it seems noteworthy the Memphis owners expect Rasmus back in AAA next year.
Barton may be our guy to put in against lefties
and we may trade Skip… but who knows.
it's time to bring the rock!!!!!!!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 5, 2008 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
This is what I would like to see done next year
I want to see us pursue a Top of Line FA starter or bust. AJ Burnett or Derek Lowe, Most likely Derek Lowe if he stays in that Type B FA will be more desirable to the team. This will be the YEAR to sign a FA Top End Starter. The market has never seen this many good FA starters ever.
A.J. Burnett – Type A
Andy Pettitte – Type A
Mike Mussina – Type A
Jon Garland – Type B
Paul Byrd – Type B
Curt Shilling
C.C. Sabathia – Type A
Kyle Lohse – Type A
Ben Sheets – Type A
Oliver Perez – Type A
Randy Wolf – Type B
Randy Johnson – Type B
Derek Lowe – Type B
Brad Penny – Type B ($8.75 mil Team Option)
Jamie Moyer – Type B
Now I am not recommending that all of those players are good signings but through the shear number of them it will drive the market DOWN. So this will be the best year to get a higher end starter cheaper than before.
Everyone seems to be complaining about our 2B production but I think Larry proved that is not our problem at all. We are getting acceptable production out of that position. I think our biggest problem is the SS position. We rank as one of the worst in the league. The Free Agency market is horrible. No one worth signing for any decent amount of money.
Orlando Cabrera CWS
Alex Cintron CWS
Alex Cora BOS
Craig Counsell * MIL
Adam Everett MIN
Rafael Furcal LAD
Cesar Izturis STL
Ramon Martinez LAD
Edgar Renteria * DET
Juan Uribe CWS
I think are best shot is to trade for a young SS. Now this is going to be most expensive and daring part of the off season. We will have to give up a quality talent to get some back. Prospects are great to have but you have to deal from advantage. We have great depth in the OF and need to deal from that position. Now I am just not sure who would be the best trading partner but I love Brandon Wood of the Angels. I think Khalil Greene would be available but I don’t like him.
Anyone know any good available SS off the top of their head? (I am trying to dig deeper on the subject. Looking for teams with very poor OF production that needs help now and for the future.)
Also, On a final note. I think the Cardinals need to put Motte in a position to succeed. If he can put up a great Sept he would be a HUGE trading chip.
that’s what I was saying yesterday: we need to sign a decent shortstop, and it shouldn’t be too hard to make an improvement. signing a starter ain’t a bad idea either, since we’ll probably have injury concerns again. off the top of my head (and earlier in today’s discussion) Lowe seems to be the guy we should go after
it's time to bring the rock!!!!!!!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 5, 2008 2:59 PM EDT reply actions
I have been flip flopping on the idea of signing furcal
on the one hand, we get a rare power hitting SS, for a decent price (injuries have driven down his value, I’m guessing). on the other hand, you have a guy who has a pretty good chance of getting hurt, and who is not one of the best defensive shortstops around… not to mention, throwing errors that may cause an APu injury, and I’m not so sure… the guy has a gun.
it's time to bring the rock!!!!!!!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 5, 2008 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
The article underscores the fact
that no matter what positive attributes TLR possesses he is still a jerk. As usual, the guy who has never made a mistake in his life points the finger at everybody else: ownership, the front office, the farm system, even his current roster. Speaking of MO he has the audacity to say, "He’s a smart guy. There are 30 teams and he’s got one of 30 jobs. He’s working his ass off to prove he deserves to keep it." Maybe TLR should focus his energies on working his ass off to prove he deserves to keep his job.
This whole Don Tony persona is getting so old. I wish we could find a way to keep Duncan and let Tony move on to the alleged GM opportunities. What a great gig for a guy who is "not a long range thinker." Like we could be so lucky – the only thing he is interested in is padding his managerial win total.
There, I feel better now.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Oh, snap! I'm loving it......
Because I happen to agree with you.
I was shocked that LaRussa wants to be a GM. I can’t see that working out for anyone. I just can’t. I won’t be sad to See Duncan take his white binder and go home either. I LOATHE having a complete starting staff that pitches to contact. I want me a “hit it meat” guy there too…..Ben Sheets would work.
Now I’ll go hide from the incoming fire………
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
I have never understood the pitch to contact philosophy
and while I like to think that it always in place, I can’t think of a pitcher they haven’t put that policy on. DO we ever pursue the “hit it meat” guy? I can’t think of one. I may be wrong.
Anyway, back to my point. Isn’t it a good
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I don't think A.J. Burnett is a pitch to contact pitcher.
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
Good point
if only we could have signed him, you know, to see if he would have been “adjusted” . I like to think they would have let him pitch the way he always has.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Perfect fix for Tony and the Cards
Jimmy Rollins seems to be having a somewhat of a falling out in Philly and is likely to be traded this offseason. I know he will never produce the MVP numbers he did a year ago, but he fills multiple needs for the team.
1. Starting SS that is above average defensively
2. Middle infielder with “pop” in his bat
3. Switch hitter that hits left and right handers
4. Speed (a legit 30 SB threat would do wonders for this team)
5. Veteran (yeah Tony, you know you love that)
We would certainly have to give up a package of solid prospects (maybe B. Anderson, Boggs, and Motte or Barden) for a short period of Rollins. However, this is the type of acquisition that would catapult this team to another level.
I don't he'd be worth trading those guys for
I’d rather get Furcal if he doesn’t re-sign with the Dodgers
it's time to bring the rock!!!!!!!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 5, 2008 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
OT: Does anybody listen to team 1380?
Specifically the afternoon drive show (Formerly “The Roll Home”)?
last week it was called
“The Bearine Miklasz show.” I heard they fired Randy. But I haven’t had much time to listen to the show lately. I also heard that 1380 hired Slaten.
Is St Louis sports radio any good? seems like it would be really bad.
I live in Iowa and do not get any STL stations.
I think so
I have listened to this afternoon show for a few years now
by FredbirdisaDork on Sep 5, 2008 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah...
I don’t know anything about Kevin Slaten. I just hate it that Randy Karraker is gone. This new guy is a total windbag loser. The show is almost unbearable now. I only listen cause they have good weekly guests, where I used to religiously listen every day on the internet from my office at work.
by FredbirdisaDork on Sep 5, 2008 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I listen to 670 the score out of Chicago.
I think it is a very good sports radio station….They have good guests and I think most all of the radio personalities do a very good job.
Obviously Chicago has a lot more sports to discuss than STL, so that’s why I just figured STL would be kind of boring.
There is never a dull moment durning Sox (670 is the sox flagship), Cubs, Bears, and Bulls season. Not I left out the Blackhawks…. No one in Chicago cares about the Blackhawks. About the only reason they got coverage last year was their old owner died and his son acutally decided to televise a few games. The team was so/so and just missed the play-offs.
I listen to The Score as well
but that’s because I live in the Chicago suburbs. Personally, I’m a Boers and Bernstein fanboy, but ultimately I would rather hear local sports talk than the national crap that ESPN has. That and I can’t stand Mac, Jurko and Harry.
Btw, I can’t imagine there’s a radio show in the entire world that’s better that Boers and Bernstein……..yeah, i’m that big of a fan……
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
Great show....Boers and Bernstine are the best tandem in my opinon.
I live in eastern Iowa but we get 670 loud and clear. I started listening to the Mike North show, which was ahhhh entertaining at times but just bad at times too.
I think Boers and Bernstein are great, and Jason Goff adds a nice touch as well. It is a great show.
love boers and bernstine
i lived in chicago and peoria for several years before moving down. that show is hilarious and bernsy is just great at calling out sports figures for their awful logic/decisions. love their coverage of the bears too
Ok, I can't be the only person who this blog's font
is screwed up for, right?
I mean, I have no problem with other Sportsnation blogs but this one, all the font is like 18 when it should be 16, if you get my drift.
msut be you! weren't you complaining about it in yesterdays post..
I have not noticed any font issues on my end. I have accesed the site from two different computers as well.
It still drives me INSANE
that that the page moves up and down to give you the popup about someone posted.
While I was typing this, the little thing came up saying someone made a new post and this entire post I was typing scrolled off the screen, then came back. @#R#R@R$#@
The problem is Tony doesn't believe in potential
he believes it what a player has ‘earned’. Example: Colby Rasmus has the potential to be Grady Sizemore. Skip Schumaker has the potential to be So Taguchi, but from the left-side. But Skip is given the opportunity because he is a ‘safer’ bet. He has played for Tony, he’s done things ‘the right way’ and he hasn’t been absolutely dreadful. So, Tony trusts him.
But Colby Rasmus can be the type of ‘impact’ player Tony wants. Yet, he could also flop on his face and end up being the same type player Skip is now.
Tony doesn’t want to be told that this kid is good, you should play him. He’d rather trust Bobby Bonilla in LF. He’d rather trust Jason Isringhausen on 1 leg. Because he’s seen what they can do and thinks they can forever do that again.
So, he doesn’t want them to go get Troy Tulowitzki, a somewhat flashy, young fan pleasing player. He wants them to go get Edgar Renteria, a guy he can trust.
Detroit is in a tough position
Renteria has a $11 mil option next year with a $3 million buyout that would be payed by the Red Sox if done per my knowledge. So the buyout is not a problem but he will not be worth $11 next year. So they will most likely decline his option. Know the question is do they offer him arbitration or not. He is a Type A FA so seems like a smart move to do so but what are the chances they do offer him arbitration and they get stuck with him?
Now he got paid $9 million this year and they can only offer him 80% less than that. So the question is Renteria worth $7.2 million to the Tigers? I think they are talking about cutting payroll so I don’t think they want to take the risk and he will not be offered arbitration .
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 5, 2008 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
PLEASE......
Tell me when So hit from one side of the plate like Skip has against righties this year?
Absolutely ridiculous.
Uh, last year?
Okay, he didn’t have the power Skip had (hah), but he did hit for a high average vs. lefties last year…
Like it or not, Skip really is So Taguchi, albeit in his prime, and probably not nearly as good a defender (especially in CF)
No really
Like PLEASE tell me when he was ever like Skip, except in that situation. I will now shoot down your argument by asking you to provide me the factual information to do so. I will now wait for you to bring me the information I request so that I can slap you around.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 5, 2008 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions
So had a .760 OPS against LHP in 2007
(that was his best split vs LHP in his time with the cards; he had a .715 career split vs LHP).
Skip has a .888 OPS against RHP this year, .892 last year. Thats 120 points of OPS seperating them; they really aren’t comparable players. Saying they are is as absurd as saying that fred lewis and jason bay are basically the same hitter because they’re both hitting .280…
I’n not sure about So’s range, but he also had a noodle arm, so i have a hard time saying he’s a better defender than Skip. he might have been, i know he had a reputation for being good, but by 2006 (when i started paying attention to such details) he had clearly lost a step.
the ******* plane has crashed into the mountain.
The thing that worrys me a bit with the keep all the prospects
the under lock and key and to not trade a couple of thern to get a “impact player” to help us for 2009 is that what happens if alot of these can’t miss prospects are busts? I’m thinking mostly of our pitching prospects but still …going all in for youth can turn out to be a good thing OR a bad thing. Examples: The Good: Rays, Indians, Marlins, and Diamondbacks (to some extent) and the bad: Royals, Pirates, A’s. If the talent is there then I stay keep them like with Rasmus and Wallace, but guys like Kozma, Garcia & Todd can be easily replaced in my opinion, keeping them “untouchable” could really bite us if they don’t work out and they could have been traded for a player to help us get into the playoffs in 2009. I guess it’s all about the gamble.
Another thing that kind of bothers me as a fan is that it seems like winning title in 2006 was enough for ownership and even for some of the fans. Now I am not saying we should be in the World Series every year (no team can really think of doing that excpet for the Yankees/Red Sox)…but the notion that “great we won the title now we can go cheap for 4-5 years” bothers me. I am all for a youth movement if the talent is there in the minors to have one that would only last for 2 years or so until we are ready for October again, but it can also backfire and turn us into the Oakland A’s, Kansas City Royals, Pittsburgh Pirates. Thankfully right now we have the best player in baseball in Pujols that keeps us from reaching those low depths but since the Cardinals charge some of the highest prices in baseball for tickets they really can’t play the “go cheap” card for too long before there is a huge backlash from the fans and especially the season ticket holders. Just remember the years 1990-1995 for an example.
This should be an interesting off season to see how things play out with the “Youth movement”, which I am still on board with by the way.
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
+1
Not a single pitching prospect in our organization is a can’t miss, or a potential 1/2 starter. That isn’t opinion, but pretty factual.
As for hitters, I’d say we have 3 that will pretty obviously have some level of success in the bigs.
What facts would you base this
‘factual’ statement.
I’ll hang up and listen. Thank you.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 5, 2008 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Nothing in Adam Wainwright's minor league history
suggested he would become a top of the rotation starter.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
true
and maybe someone can help me out, but why is it things have worked so well for the cards w/ Wainwright and went so poorly w/ Reyes??
Is waino really a pitch to contact pitcher? I just HATE how our rigid philosophy basically led to the trade of a guy who had been a top prospect at one point. giving up on high end pitching talent is never a positive thing, regardless of how “uncoachable” they might be. Maybe we duncan should be called “unwilling to coach strikouts”
How is that different from our "can't miss vetran impact trade" going bust?
Or FA signing.
See:
Mulder, Hampton, Danny Jackson, Tino Martinez, Zito, …
It's a very fine line and a gamble no matter what
but to just keep guys like Kozma, Garcia, Boggs, & Todd because they are “prospects” and ignoring the fact we might be a couple players from getting into the post season next year…is a bigger gamble in my opinion. But it’s why Mo makes the big bucks. If someone is available to help us next year …is it a gamble worth taking to trade off a few guys like Boggs & Garcia this winter?? I think it is. Probably not Rasmus or Wallace, but the rest of our “prospects” shouldn’t be completely under lock and key.
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
Fact is
that we are so far down in the pecking order (and slipping) on payroll, that we have no choice but to develop players internally going forward. WJ seemed to try hard to attract top flight free agents, but all he had to show for it was Tino Martinez and Ron Gant.
I would rather make a cheap mistake that you can recover from than another $40 million dollar disaster on a player somebody else doesn’t want.
It’s funny how most of the win-now trade the prospects guys would probably name their two favorite players as Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
so, uh
Looper is due for a win…
it's time to bring the rock!!!!!!!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 5, 2008 5:36 PM EDT reply actions
i for one hope Tony never leaves
what the hell would we talk about if he left?
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
Tony's goals are simply incongruous
w/ the long-term goals of the organization. Tony is a short-term manager. He’s not going to be with the team for 4-5 years. He wants to win…NOW. It simply isn’t in his interest for the team to be a long-term winner. I’m not saying he doesn’t want the Cards to be successful 5, 6 or 8 years from now but his primary goal is for the Cards to be successful next year. If they can have both, I’m sure Tony would be happier than to win today and lose tomorrow. However, if the option is be pretty good next year and very good for several more years, or be very good next year and mediocre afterward, he’d choose being very good next year and mediocre afterward.
If I’m DeWitt, and I doubt he feels this way b/c he seems insistent on keeping Tony, I would resent the hell out of Tony’s attempt to hold the organization hostage. He’s trying to extort a great player out of Mo and DeWitt. Get a star or I’m outta here — as if the choice is Colby Rasmus (for example) or Tony. If that’s the choice, the organization should choose Rasmus. Rasmus has a long-term future w/ the organization (unlike Tony) and will provide more wins to the team each year than Tony will. The Tony-lovers will dispute this but there’s little evidence that even the greatest managers provide more than about 3 wins above replacement per year. Even in Rasmus’ rookie season, he should be good for more than 3 wins above replacement.
The question is — will DeWitt and Mo allow themselves to be held hostage by Tony’s rantings? If so, the long-term success of this organization will suffer for it.
Isn't this becoming routine?
Since Walt left, Tony likes to give his opinions, but it is Mozeliak that it tasked with the roster makeup. And he’s been told that the organization is putting a premium on player development and building from within. That doesn’t mean there will never be trades involving prospects, but it does mean the opportunity to help the team now will have to be overwhelming to make a deal happen. And wanting and wishing good opportunities to develop doesn’t mean they will. Ironically, publically pushing for a move of prospects probably makes it a little harder to move them, though I must admit Mo did the job with the Rolen deal despite LaRussa’s public comments. Still, if you talk too much about it and you take away leverage. Why voice your opinions on these things?
It creates an impression of infighting and finger pointing. May not be true, but the impression is there. And, as I said, the direction of the organization has been set before Tony re-upped. If Tony has a problem with that, it is his problem alone. Maybe I am overreacting, (yeah, I probably am) but it seems a little early for him to be starting on this type of stuff.
For the record, and despite my screenname, I do not reject dealing prospects – even Rasmus – out of hand. I just don’t advocate doing it for the sake of doing it. You have to weigh the costs and benefits of any moves and try to extract maximum value. Maybe a trade gets the best return. Maybe free agency does. Maybe resigning people does. You can’t know until the offseason when the markets start to establish themselves.
I certainly don’t advocate talking to much to the press about what you want to do. It serves no constructive purpose that I can see. It does certainly give us something to talk about though.
We need a game thread!
So I can talk about how if Milwaukee can’t win tonight (Sabathia pitching), they are likely to get swept (Peavy – Sat, Young – Sun).
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