Realistic Option - Lefty Reliever

by Ghostrider520 on Sep 30, 2008 11:28 PM EDT Comment 11 comments

We've all read the "sign Hudson, Furcal, and Fuentes" posts on the various Cardinal forums across the internet, but let's be realistic! Spend wisely and we can fill multiple holes on the roster while still being thrifty. Assuming Villone will not be back and the future of Flores and Johnson is still in flux, the Cardinals will be looking to go outside the organization for a left-handed reliever. What about Brian Shouse? He is due to become a free agent if and when the Brewers are eliminated from the playoffs. Sure Shouse is 40 years old and he's had a terrible September, but his splits this season against lefties are fantastic. In 100 AB's, lefties are hitting just .180 against him. Looking back from 2005-2007, lefties hit a mere .219. Over the last 3 years, he has struck out 3 times as many lefties as he has walked. Point is, the guy makes lefties look foolish.

He seems to be getting better with age and could definitely help the Cardinals from the left side. I'd say he's worth a 1 year deal, anywhere between $2 million and $3 million. If the team decides to bring Springer back, the two could be a very solid 7th or 8th inning shut-down combo to get it to the closer (whomever that may be). There are definitely other arms out there (Fuentes, Eyre, Ohman), but Shouse seems to be the most affordable and reliable. Any thoughts?

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As good an option as any

Lefty relievers are really pricey these days. Jeez.

by mojowo11 on Oct 1, 2008 12:21 AM EDT reply actions

Shouse is good...

I still like Arthur Rhodes better myself.

2008 vs. LHH
.157/.247/.200 – 70 AB’s

2005-2007 vs. LHH
.220/.295/.341 – 132 AB’s

He dominated lefties last year (though he did give a bit too many BB’s). Still had a 2.5 K/BB ratio. Cot’s doesn’t list his 2008 salary, but in ‘07 he made $1mil…I’m thinking it was close to that in ‘08, too. On top of that he’s not too bad against righties with a four year OPS against of right at .700…Shouse’s OPS against vs. righties is just over .800. Rhodes will be 39 this month, so he aint no yungin either. I’d be happy with either guy, but Rhodes is the one I want.

by cardzfanbub on Oct 1, 2008 9:38 AM EDT reply actions

Shouse is fine as the 2nd lefty

… but not if he is to be used like Villone was this year. We might need both Shouse and Rhodes.

by jjray on Oct 1, 2008 10:32 AM EDT reply actions

Shouse is good vs. lefties

but beyond atrocious against righties. He just cannot be exposed to righties at all which means you probably need at least another lefty or a stronger pen overall to be able to have Shouse there. He’s OK but I’d rather have Will Ohman.

by chuckb on Oct 1, 2008 12:25 PM EDT reply actions

I would too.

Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.

Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.

by Tackle Box on Oct 1, 2008 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Ohman...

had a good line against lefties this year (.200/.254/.314)…though not nearly as good as Rhodes or Shouse. His OPS against righties was about the same as Rhodes (.695 vs. .708). I guess if you’re looking for a long term solution (3-4 years) Ohman makes a bit more sense…maybe he’d sign in the neighborhood of $3mil/year. I think Rhodes could be had for under $2mil this year and is just as good or better…just my opinion.

by cardzfanbub on Oct 1, 2008 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions

I wouldn't sign any middle reliever for 3-4 years

you’re guaranteed a minimum of 2 bad years even if he’s healthy for all 4.

Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.

Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.

by Tackle Box on Oct 1, 2008 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree.

That’s part of what makes Shouse so appealing. Since he is 40 years old, he would/should be willing to take a shorter term deal (2 years max, but preferably 1). I really don’t see someone throwing 3 or 4 years at him. Ohman is 31, Fuentes is 33, and Eyre is 36. Both Ohman and Fuentes could legitimately sign 4-year deals (a bad investment) with teams who are willing to pay up.

With Shouse, the Cardinals can offer decent money for a short amount of time and not have to worry about another team swooping in with a 3 or 4-year deal.

As mentioned above, the Rhodes vs. Shouse idea is interesting. On the surface, Rhodes might be the better reliever overall. But, if the sole purpose of another left-handed arm is just to get lefties out, Shouse is your man. Consider the splits for both Shouse and Rhodes from 2005-2007 as well as 2008.

Shouse vs. Lefties (2005-2007)
279 AB, 61 hits, 67 K’s, 20 BB, .219 AVG, .606 OPS

Rhodes vs. Lefties (2005-2007)
132 AB, 29 hits, 40 K’s, 14 BB, .220 AVG, .636 OPS

Facing twice as many batters, Shouse put up almost identical numbers to Rhodes in both opponent average and K/BB. Although the numbers may look similar, Shouse has to get the nod based on his durability and overall effectiveness.

Shouse vs. Lefties (2008)
100 AB, 18 hits, 28 K’s, 2 BB, .180 AVG, .482 OPS

Rhodes vs. Lefties (2008)
70 AB, 11 hits, 23 K’s, 9 BB, .157 AVG, .447 OPS

Shouse had 30 more chances than Rhodes in 2008. Rhodes put up some solid numbers, but Shouse’s K/BB ratio is ridiculous. If we look at Rhodes’ opponent average as it relates to 100 at-bats, it would be .224 (157 divided by 70 = 224 divided by 100). I’ve still got to give the nod to Shouse, despite Rhodes exceeding his 2005-2007 splits.

The point is, if you are paying a left-handed reliever to retire left-handed batters, go for Shouse. You’ll get the most for your money. He is effective, cheap, and attainable. If you are looking for a reliever who can retire hitters consistently regardless of which side they hit from, Rhodes is your choice. You can still make the argument that Rhodes will command a higher salary than Shouse though.

by Ghostrider520 on Oct 1, 2008 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions