Yeah it’s great that we locked someone up for the rotation next year, but giving Lohse 41 mil. AND a full no trade clause!!!!!??? That seems like to much. On the other hand, I don’t think that there is anyone else on the open market as decent as Kyle is who would sign for the same contract, leaving us with money left over to shore up the bullpen/MI.

It’s ok. I like that it’s backloaded so that the salaries align with the others expiring contracts. But 4 years? That’s plenty a lot.

Hope this doesn’t affect our chances for any FAs this year.

At least we know that it’ll be Waino, Carp, Welley, Lohse, Pineiro — assuming Carp is healthy. Now we can trade some arms (or, if we’re lucky, get rid of Pineiro somehow).

“our best pitcher from Game 1 thru Game 162”, h had a fine year and all, but our best pitcher was the Wagonmaker. No?

Wainwright is far and away the best pitcher and the ace of the staff…. but he missed a month and a half of the season and made just 20 starts. Just pointing out that Lohse was healthy for the whole season

Our best pitcher 1-162, discounting A.D.A.M. since of his prolonged absense. If you mean “the best pitcher who made most all of his starts,” then I would agree with you.

I say it’s a potentially OK deal. He won’t likely put up numbers like this again but as long as he doesn’t regress considerably (I’m looking at you, Joe-L) then we will proabably not hate it too much. Yes, I am sitting squarely on the fence if that’s what you’re wondering ;)

do you want Lohse in the rotation for the next 4 years? If you answer yes then what does it matter what they pay him. They feel they can afford him, and if the contract doesn’t prevent them from doing other things then I have no problem with the contract. I am very happy with his performance this year and I would expect more of the same next year.

… there are some pros. there are some cons. here’s how i see them:

pros:

1. it has become very likely that Burnett will re-up with Toronto and Dempster will re-up with Chicago. Sabathia/Sheets will definitely be out of our price range, and rumblings are that Lowe will be getting $15+mn/year for 3 years. Lohse is probably the next-best FA pitcher beyond those guys.

2. we get to keep our 1st-round pick, which we wouldn’t if we signed one of those other guys. how much is that pick worth? i haven’t seen valuation matrices for picks, but i would think that a pick in the 16-20 range would be worth a few million bucks.

3. the structure of the contract is very team-friendly. basically, the contract escalates after next year, when Piniero and Welly’s contracts will be off the books. we’re going to be paying Carp and Lohse a combined $27mn in ‘11 and ’12 (assuming we pick up Carp’s option), and that’s pretty scary, but Wainwright should still be under-paid and hopefully one or two of Garcia/Mort/Boggs/Todd have solidified roles by then for cheap.

4. ~ 200 league-average innings is nothing to sneeze at, and that’s what Lohse brings. we have some money to spend, and spending it on pitching is usually wise. all in all, it’s almost definitely a below-market contract.

5. Garcia’s hurt, Boggs didn’t impress in the bigs this year, and Mort and Todd could use another year or more in the minors. our young SP depth doesn’t look as good as it did two months ago. it doesn’t look like any of those guys can be counted on to be solid contributors next season. in ’10, Piniero and Welly will be gone, so spots will be open if they are ready.

cons:

1. even this year, Lohse isn’t much better than league-average, and it’s not likely that he’s going to improve. his peripherals aren’t very good. a lot of his success this year is probably due to the fact that Busch3 suppresses home runs (whereas Cinci and Philly inflate them) and that might continue, but even still he’s not much better than mediocre.

2. it’s a 4-year deal. at some point in the 4 years, it’s very likely that Lohse will not live up to the contract. maybe at every point in the 4 years.

3. the biggest weak spots on the team are MIF and bullpen. it’s highly likely that the team will have to overpay in order to improve those spots, and signing Lohse gives the team less flexibility with which to overpay.

4. i still think that if you’re going to spend $10+mn on a pitcher, than pay $15+ and get a difference-maker. if Dempster or Burnett frees up, then pay them $15mn. make a big offer for Sheets, or go for Lowe. if the team has decided to spend a lot on one roster spot, then i’d rather them go for broke and get a guy that can carry the team. they won’t be able to do that now, and not just this year. guys like Harden and Bedard will become FAs next year, but the Cards won’t have the cash to make a move on one of them either.

5. it’s not very creative. it’s possible the team could get more value for less of a commitment in other places. one example: Brad Penny will be available at a discounted price; he struggled this year and was injured some, but he’s only one season removed from a 151 ERA+. if you can get him cheaply, he might out-pitch Lohse for a fraction of the cost in dollars and years. Oliver Perez might cost about the same as Lohse, but he’s 3 years younger and still has room to grow. a team in the Cards’ position isn’t going to be able to out-spend the Cubs, Phillies, and Mets, so they might have to gamble a little bit in order to contend.

on balance i’d say… it could’ve been worse, but i’m certainly not inspired.

before 2013 . . .. for this one. . . .

But what choice did they have, really? As much as I wish it were possible, they weren’t going to get CC Sabathia. Burnett seems unlikely as well, and I’ve never been crazy about Lowe, plus considering his age and price, no thanks.

Someone has to start games. They don’t have anyone in the minors. It’s either re-sign him or go dumpster diving once again (which I’m sure they will have to do anyway if/when Carp isn’t ready for the season opener. )

My fear though is that we are left with the same team next year, which seems increasingly likely. I think once you factor in this deal and all the pay increases, there won’t be much left over.

Granted, it was better than I expected in terms of W/L record, but finished about what i expected (4th place). Maybe the competition won’t be as fierce next year, but maybe the other two divisions will improve, too (they kinda sucked this year, I think inflating the central’s W/L records)

Maybe Moe can trade Rasmus and Anderson for someone who can be a difference (since they have no future here, they should be moved while they have value).

IF carpenter is healthy, then Lohse isn’t really replacing Lohse. Lohse is replacing Looper. And if you think about it that way then it really is a step up. Granted, I hate the contract, but I’m just trying to look at the bright side of things here.

From a baseball standpoint, any 4-year deal for a pitcher carries a ton of risk – you all have fleshed that out plenty. So putting that aside, this is an interesting deal on a couple of levels:

1. It’s Mozeliak’s first long-term contract negotiation with a Scott Boras client, and it went very quickly and quietly. Unusual for a Boras negotiation, but then again the Cards pretty much gave Lohse what he had been asking for the previous winter (4 yr/ 40 mil).

2. Unlike most Boras-driven free agent deals, this was not a “sight-unseen” move by the Cards, since we had the luxury of a low-cost, low-risk trial period. Combined, I wonder what kind of good-faith bargaining leverage Mo has developed with this talent pipeline.

3. Lohse’s success might be directly tied to Dave Duncan’s game-planning and coaching, which suggests that resigning Dunc should be Mo’s next priority.

Before the season, I remember an analysis of Lohse’s pitch patterns on this site, specifically pointing out that he didn’t seem to be altering his approach to the hitters – i.e. no adjustments to lefties vs righties. And he was getting crushed. This year, he has been throwing his fastball more and his slider and change less, which might be resulting from a platoon adjustment or coaching suggestion.

In all, I think there’s a fair chance that this contract works out.

Perhaps more importantly, it’s an early salvo on the market — along with the Wainwright extension — that re-establishes that the Cardinals are willing to pay market rate for talent they believe in. You might dismiss this as glib, but this kind of perception carries a lot of weight in terms of opening good-faith negotiations with impact free agents. And the Cards had been developing a bit of an opposite rep, that of risk-averse dumpster-divers.

My only problem with Lohse’s contract is the no trade clause. If Mo could’ve avoided that, I would be extremely happy with the dollars and years. To get an average pitcher these days, it is going to take that kind of commitment.

Well the good part to me is this is a guy that clearly wants to be here badly. He did a real nice job for us this year. So it’s not a situation where I don’t like the guy. I think he could be a big help for us next year. Maybe even the year after that.

So that leads me to what I don’t like. A 4 year deal coupled with a no trade clause.

Pitchers are volatile, unpredictable, and fall off the cliff in terms of performance with little warning. So if you are going to give a pitcher a 4 year deal, I believe you have to at least get top of the rotation potential in return. The possible upside has to be worth the risks you are taking. Lohse doesn’t give that. His ERA+ is 113 this year, which is nice, but not top of the rotation. It also happens to be the best year of his 8 year career. I get a strong intuition that this is a case of buying high – and the no trade clause limits the opportunities if you ever decide you want to sell.

Here’s the top 10 comps per baseball ref at age 28, along with what their ERA+ were for their age 30 – 34 seasons. Admittedly, this does not factor his career season this year, only through age 28 (last year). So it is probably worth reassessing in a couple months when it updates, but I still think it is pretty telling….

Jeff Suppan (119, 108, 97, 87)
Jose Lima (100, 101, 63, 44)
Jason Jennings (only 29 years old)
Ricky Bones (78, 97, 84)
Joel Pineiro (only 29)
George Blaeholder (118, 106, 101)
Jason Marquis (only 29)
Todd Stottlemeyer (94, 109, 107, 117)
Sidney Ponson (63, 86)

I suspect we will be glad to have him at his salary next year. I just hope we feel the same way by 2011, but I don’t think it is all that likely.