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6 "What If's" to Ponder After a Long, Fun Season

Ah, the major league baseball season.  162 games long, and just a handful of games make all the difference.  I read once that in an MLB season, you can count on losing at least 60 games, count on winning at least 60 games, and it’s what you do with those other 42 that distinguishes a good season from a bad one.  At the end of the season, the Cardinals did OK.  Like many others, I really can’t complain about the outcome W-L record.  Over achieving, especially when you look at the blogs/pundits/columnists predictions back in April, is a wonderful thing.

 

No, wait.  I can complain.  Well… maybe it’s not really complaining.  Maybe it’s just focusing on the negative long enough to cause a deep feeling of remorse.  After all, I am generally a “glass is half empty” sorta guy.

 

I can’t help look back and wonder, “What if…”  In the long, long season, there are many “what if’s,” but I’ve narrowed my list to six “what if’s.”  I looked at each month and picked one game that was a) frustrating, b) heart-breaking, c) maddening, or d) all of the above. 

 

Now, I realize this is a completely subjective list, and I understand that “what if’s” run both ways (i.e. “What if the Cardinals lost that game instead of winning it…”), but I thought it was a good way to get a quick and dirty read to see if there was any sort of pattern to what made the 2008 Cardinals a good team and what held them back from being a play-off team. 

 

OK, one game per month.   Everybody in the Wayback Machine?  Here we go…

 

 April 1: 2-1 loss to the Rockies.  This one stung for not only the loss, but because it was a rescheduled game from the washed out home opener.  Losing to Kip Wells?  That’s an ouchy no Band-Aid can fix.  First blown save of the season.  I was there for the opening day ceremonies the day before, and saw a highly probable Cardinal win (and an Albert home run) be stricken from the record books due to the weather .  Alas, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains.

 

May 9: 4-3 loss to the Brewers.  One out away from victory.  After getting two outs on two pitches, Isringhausen implodes, allowing two singles and a walk before Rickie Weeks’ two-run single gives Milwaukee a victory and snaps the Brewers’ six-game losing streak.

 

June 17: 2-1 loss to the Royals.  The first game of being swept by Kansas City.  At home.  Seriously.  The entire series was nauseating, but this game set the tone for the next two.

 

July 12: 11-12 loss to the Pirates.  The Cardinals are beaten by the lowly Pittsburgh club – honestly, what made the Pirates so tough that the home team just couldn’t beat these guys when they needed to?  St. Louis loses in 10, after being up by 6 runs.  Anyone seeing the #1 issue as “bullpen” yet, or is it just me?

 

August 8: 3-2 loss to the Cubs.  Edmunds hits two home runs.  Cards lose in 11.  The memory of this game could leave someone less mentally stable in a dark corner and rocking on the floor in a fetal position.

 

September 13: 7-6 loss to the Pirates.  Really?!?  The Pirates again?  I think I just threw up a little in my mouth.  Cards loss comes after 11 innings, after they fail to put up any runs past the fourth inning. 

 

That's my list.  Feel free to point out other games that could have changed the season.  In looking at this completely unscientific sampling of the schedule:

 

I love TLR and think he’s a baseball genius, but I must disagree with the whole “impact bat” argument.  As already shown several times on this site, the Cardinals hit the ball successfully with great frequency this year.  OBP was very good.  The LOB numbers were high, but then the team was getting on-base so you’d expect more men LOB.  The hits would’ve been better if they’d come with RISP, but overall this team was way better than average offensively.

 

Starting pitching was way, way, way better than anyone could have guessed, especially considering that at the beginning of the season we were thinking (or at least led to believe by the front office propoganda) there might be a Carpenter/Mulder/Clement solution at mid-season.  Not to mention Wainwright was out for weeks with a broken whateveritwas in his finger.

 

Bottom line, the difference in all the games I’ve looked at above is bullpen.  Had the Cardinals improved their bullpen at any point in the season, or perhaps upgraded one starter to protect the bullpen with more innings, they might be looking at a Wild Card series today rather than finishing four games out of the phantom division. 

 

But, hey, at least it was exciting and fun.  And there's always next year.  Go Cards!

2 recs  |  Comment 13 comments

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That July 12th loss

to the Pirates was the worst for me…I could see it coming as soon as Bay hit that two-run homer in the 8th. I told my buddy “well this one’s not gonna end well” and it didn’t. That left the most sickening feeling in my stomach. Blowing a six run lead, to the Pirates! It doesn’t get much worse than that.

Ryan Howard: one of the most Statistically Outstanding players of all time

by RunninRedbird on Sep 29, 2008 8:36 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yup

Mother of god I was staying in a rat and rot hotel in Bangkok and found solace in the Internet and the Cards’ large lead against an hopeless team. When the Pirates came back i was driven to drink – early and often that day.

Still haven’t completely recovered. .

Good list by the way

An optimist is a man who upon discovering that a rose smells better than a cabbage concludes it will make better soup.

HL Mencken

by akaitori on Sep 30, 2008 2:28 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I disagree about the offense not needing to do something.....

I believe we were a top 5 team in both average and on base percentage, yet decidedly lower in runs scored, and seemed to have some pretty big scoring droughts. That is also with Glaus having a big year, Ludwick having a career year, and Skip having a career year. And I guess Yadi did too. You have to think at least one or two of those guys will regress some, and I don’t see a ton of room for improvement from any other spots in the lineup, UNLESS we go get somebody new.

by SoonerfanTU on Sep 30, 2008 1:56 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

but our slugging was also high

you have some convincing to do with stats if we are to believe your hypothesis that the offense had such big droughts that it should have us believe that we need a Holliday when we really need a Halladay. I will say though, that we definitely need to upgrade either at SS or 2B, because there probably is at least some truth to the offensive drought hypothesis.

go rays

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 30, 2008 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My "what if" is one sole series

July 21-24th

Just off a 4 game sweep of the Padres we lose 4 straight to the eventual wild card team. Not only that, but we should have won three of them, and while the 4th wouldn’t have been near as easy (vs C.C.), we could have won there too.

From that moment on we went from playing a hard nine to over the shoulder (and then from behind) watching. That one series defined the second half, imo.

I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang

by AdjustedExpectations on Sep 30, 2008 3:17 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

+ 1

we were 2 or 3 outs from a victory in 2 if not 3 games. On top of that the crew went on to get swept by the cubs. Very dissapointing.

Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose and sometime it rains.

by garden nome on Oct 1, 2008 2:21 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

my thoughts for these games and more

April 1: 2-1 loss to the Rockies. -as a Bears fan, this was like losing to Brian Griese the other week. Kip Wells? blargh! (1 win)
 
May 9: 4-3 loss to the Brewers. this is what started my newfound dislike for the Brewcrew. pesky! not to mention the 4 game sweep, I think we should all wipe that one from our collective memory (let’s just say we should have one 2 here)
 
June 17: 2-1 loss to the Royals. just think if we would have swept the Royals instead… let’s just say we should have won 2 outta 3 (2 wins)
 
July 12: 11-12 loss to the Pirates. as I’ve said before: The Pirates? Really??? they stopped our postseason aspirations just as we stopped the Dbacks (1 win)
 
August 8: 3-2 loss to the Cubs. Edmonds hits two home runs. ugh. not sure what to say on this one, I had already erased it from the memory banks. (I think we did well enough against the cubs, so no win here)
 
September 13: 7-6 loss to the Pirates. we blew it! the Pirates sunk our season!! (1 win)

I would like to add the extremely bizarre Nationals game with Kennedy batting third, and resting multiple regulars. we definitely SHOULD HAVE won this game, if the right group was put on the field. (1 win)

So in my rather unscientific analysis, we could easily have had 8 more wins this season. that would equate to the playoffs.

go rays

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 30, 2008 2:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

My vote goes for this game

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/WAS/WAS200806052.shtml

Down 8-0 thru 3 in the second game of a doubleheader, the Cards came back and eventually tied it in the 9th. Joe Mather proceeded to hit his first major league home run to take the lead in the 10th, only to see the game slip away by yet another Ryan Franklin blown save.

Let's Go Yadi

by SHUCardinal on Sep 30, 2008 2:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

that game was a very different kind of heartbreak

i could say it was more positive than the others because they came back from such a huge deficit… but man. don’t forget worrell’ s wasted heroics.

by mattybobo on Sep 30, 2008 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bullpen v Impact Bat

Two games scoring one run, one scoring two runs and another scoring three runs points to the lack of an impact bat as a problem more than a bullpen problem. The bullpen never even saw a lead in half of the games you listed.

Then again, the other two games agains Milwaukee in July and two of the losses in Arizona in Sept can help solidify the bullpen is the issue theme.

by ubeddie on Oct 1, 2008 12:37 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I was actually at the May 9th game

in Milwaukee. It was a fun game until the 9th. I believe Albert dented the scoreboard with a homer and we lead the whole game. i also remember not being my usual nervous self as Izzy was begining to implode . i remember a strange calm as I watched. It was like watching a car crash right before the impact.

Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose and sometime it rains.

by garden nome on Oct 1, 2008 2:17 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Clearly it was the late July Milwaukee series

Come in with a 1 game lead on the Brewers, leave with a 3 game deficit…plus the games were all in St Louis

Game 1—Cards battle back to tie in the bottom of the 9th, Pujols doesn’t come through with 1st/2nd 2 outs, Milwaukee hits GWHR off Franklin in 10th

Game 2—Cards lead 3-0 through 6, TLR keeps Lohse in for the 8th leading 3-1 (due to bullpen issues), Lohse blows the lead, McClellan gives up the GWHR with 2 outs in the top of the 9th.

Game 3—A lefty pitched for MIL; not good news in general. Worse news that it was Sabathia.

Game 4—Cards lead 3-2 in the 9th. Franklin gives up single and HR back to back in 9th for a sudden loss. Of the 3 games they could have won in this series, this was the most devastating due to the suddenness of the fallapart and the fact that Milwaukee built up that 3 game lead that the Cards could never get within again.

This series was probably collectively the last blow to the psyche of the Cards 2008 bullpen, and even though Milwaukee went on to lose to the Cubs right after that, the Brewers took on an unbeatable attitude in the month of August which put them into a strong position for the WC to begin September.

by olddomination on Oct 8, 2008 2:23 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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