What a tease….I hope it’s important good info.

Lohse’s #1 comp at B-R is, guess who?…Jeff Suppan. I think you’re right that this likely will be a fine contract in the first two years but a pretty bad one in years 3 and 4. Pitchers like Lohse don’t age well (see: Suppan, Jeff) and in 2011, we’re going to be looking at spending between $27-30 M on two pitchers who either can’t pitch or aren’t good (Lohse and Carp). It helps us next year but hurts us beyond. Your idea of trading for Jarrod Washburn would’ve been a good one except that it seemed as though Washburn wanted a prospect + the other team to take the money. If we could’ve done Parisi for Washburn (Parisi wasn’t yet hurt), we should have.

Today we get “important news” from the Cards, most likely a Lohse deal and possibly some news on Duncan’s status, but we also get the news that Linehan has been fired and replaced by Haslett (per Bernie this was official at 2am StL time). I think both teams have a noon press conference, though I could be wrong on the time for the Cards one.

“The Cardinals had a significant hunk of contracts expire Sunday and have said they plan to be aggressive this winter with about $30 million in flexibility. They have expressed an interest in adding two starting pitchers. Lohse’s salary will impact how much of a planned $15 million to $16 million starting-pitching purse remains for the second arm.”

Hard to say what $30 million in flexibility really means. Prior to the Lohse deal, it looks like there is a commitment to spend $62.7M next year to existing contracts. That includes Kennedy’s $4M, and $1.6M owed to make Mulder and Spezio go away. Does that mean $30M to fund contracts for:

—backup catcher
—two middle infielders (or three if TLR insists on having four again)
—the entire OF
—a utility player who can play the corners (or not if we have four MIFs)
—the entire bullpen except Franklin
—whatever starters not named Wainwright, Carpenter and Pineiro

If that is the case then is payroll really going to be lower next year? What am I missing. Without counting September callups, it looks like payroll (according to Cot’s) for 2008 was about $103M. $62.7M +$30M is about $10M less than the 2008 figure. I know some reserve needs to be held for in-season moves, but something doesn’t add up here.

If I am even close to right on these numbers and I understand DG correctly, then it really doesn’t make sense to spend 40% of the available salary dollars on Lohse. Also, does that mean only $3-4M is available for the second starter? I like him and appreciate his value to the 2008 team, but that rumored contract only makes sense if total payroll is going to rise.

I don’t know what kind of arb numbers Ank and Welly are going to get, but they will get pretty large raises most likely. Is Ludwick arb eligible? Somebody straighten me out, please.

they re-upped looper. looper would have likely came for less $, less year and lohse would’ve been a type a free agent, thus netting an extra draft pick.

I reserve the right to change my mind once the contract is release. 3 years $36 mil good. 3 years $5 mil bad.

he needs his impact bat!

I think his .400+ BAbip has more to do with his time with the Cards more than any skill.

average pitching, is stupid, and will only get stupider. Are you really going to lose sleep over this? I just can’t get upset about the Lohse deal. Remember how at one time high-OBP players were undervalued in MLB? Well I think SPs who throw 190+ innings and stay off the DL are undervalued by statheads.

I take this to mean, with Mo’s comments the other day about only being able to sign 1 of Lohse or Looper, that we have seen our last of Braden Looper in a Cardinal uniform. I guess he could give us a significant hometown discount, but I don’t see that as likely.

in his last 21 starts of the year, he was 11-3 (team record in those starts: 15-6) with a 3.09 era and a .242/.300/.352 opponent batting line. admittedly, he got off to a bad start, but rebounding to put up those numbers with the royals defense is pretty solid. he’s hardly the reason the royals aren’t in the playoffs.

…or an average pitcher is not a good investment;l 4 years and 48 mil to a guy who can give us 15 victories a year isn’t bad. if we’re going to win we need a solid rotation, that Lohse helps solidify our rotation. End of story. He cud be our next Soup.

According to our community projection, Lohse only really outperformed in counting stats, ERA, and not actual performance. Is 16 extra innings pitched really that much of a surprise?

VEB: 29, 184, 196, 56, 118, 21, 11, 11, 4.42, 1.371
2008: 33, 200, 211, 49, 119, 18, 15, 6, 3.78. 1.30
 (GS, IP, H, BB, SO, HR, W, L, ERA, WHIP)

I would say that the W-L and ERA numbers were driving my positive impressions of his performance this year. However, I think this impression is real and not totally a function of the numbers. Generally speaking, you do tend to like a pitcher more when your team is winning.

I remember the last time we got out in front of the market and signed a pitcher for more than he was worth. That was last year with El Pinata. I hope that is not the case this time around. If we are really giving him 4 years at $48M, then we’ll know who is running the franchise. It’s not Mo, but LaDunc. And that means all of this talk about farm development and plugging in young talent has been nothing but hot air.

Let me be clear, though, that we do need an arm—just not an arm for 4 years (at $12M/year no less). A 3-year deal might be palatable, but this will be an albatross by Year 4, I fear. The above comparisons to Suppan are what has been noted on this blog since before the Cards even signed Lohse. Unfortunately, we seem to be making the mistake on Lohse that we refused to make on Suppan (i.e. overpaying in years and dollars for his services).

were a reserve catcher &a 35-y.o. right-handed pitcher. Besides having that .381 BA Davis went 22-16. The next year he was traded to the Dodgers w/ Medwick.

shaping up to be:

Wainwright
Wellemeyer
Lohse
Pineiro
_________ this is the big question, right? if it’s Carp, we look very solid. if it’s Boggs, etc. not sure what to make of it. Pineiro still looms as the great mistake

I don’t care about the difference in era, that list above shows just how good Hornsby was. In the history of the St. Louis Cardinals (a very, very prestigious ballclub), Hornsby is on the top 10 batting averages 5 times for players over 100 at bats. His lowest amount of at bats to get himself onto that list is 424 abs. Only Musial, on that list, had over 250 at bats besides Hornsby. Hornsby didn’t put together good months like Felipe Lopez…he put together good half-decades. As one of our old announcers used to say, “Holy cow!”

I’m impressed.

Does anyone have a list of the top 10 Cardinal batting averages for players that qualified for the batting title?

about this deal until I know what it does to the rest of the roster. If this is our biggest acquisition then I am bummed. Given the statements made about the payroll, it looks like this choice may very well limit improvement in other areas – such as MI, bullpen, impact bat, etc.