fun again
by lboros on Sep 29, 2008 7:53 AM EDT
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Printcongratulations to the brewers and their fans --- first playoff season since ’82, and only their second ever (discounting the ’81 strike playoffs). the old Northwest Territory will be very well represented this october --- chicago, milwaukee, and either minnesota or the south side. (c’mon twins . . . )
in 2007, the season couldn’t end fast enough for me. when the schedule ran out, i mainly felt relief that i wouldn’t have to write or read about that awful team anymore. this year i feel just the opposite: i really liked the 2008 cardinals. perhaps the main reason i liked them is because they decidedly weren’t the grouchy 2007 bunch; by comparison, almost any team would have seemed likeable. but if this team had staggered through a 76-86 campaign, as was generally predicted, i doubt i would feel much affection for them, no matter how hard they played. after a year of tragedy and tension, we needed a year in which baseball was pure fun again. the organization delivered.
it caught my attention just last week that the cards had a fair chance to post the franchise’s highest team batting average of the last half-century; thanks to a furious closing burst of hitting, they actually did better than that. they finished the year with a team average of .28122, beating out the 1954 cardinals’ mark of .28085. the last cardinal team to finish with a higher batting average than the 2008 team was the 1939 club, which batted .294.
that ‘39 team had two players who batted .380 or higher in more than 100 at-bats, don padgett and curt davis. they are the last cardinals to pull off this feat until felipe lopez did it this year. lopez hit .385 in 156 at-bats after joining the cardinals, the 7th best average in franchise history (post-1900) by a player with more than 100 at-bats. here are the top 10:
| ab | avg | |
|---|---|---|
| rogers hornsby, 1924 | 536 | .424 |
| rogers hornsby, 1925 | 504 | .403 |
| rogers hornsby, 1922 | 623 | .401 |
| don padgett, 1939 | 233 | .399 |
| rogers hornsby, 1921 | 592 | .397 |
| ray blades, 1930 | 101 | .396 |
| felipe lopez, 2008 | 156 | .385 |
| rogers hornsby, 1923 | 424 | .384 |
| curt davis, 1939 | 105 | .381 |
| stan musial, 1948 | 611 | .376 |
can we conclude anything at all from lopez’s post-trade breakout? flukes do happen, but still --- .385? i mean, .330 is a fluke; .385 seems like a different order of magnitude, ie like it might be related to actual ability. since the divisional era began, there have only been 15 full or partial (ie, post-trade) seasons in which a player compiled more than 100 at-bats and batted higher than .370 --- 3 by tony gwynn, and most of the rest by stars like george brett, larry walker, ichiro, and rod carew. lopez becomes only the 4th journeyman player on the list; the others are broderick perkins (1980), david dellucci (1999), and oscar gamble (1979, after his midseason trade to the yankees). perkins batted .280 the following year, gamble .278, and dellucci .300 in just 50 at-bats; in 2001 he hit .276 as a half-time player on a world-championship team.
based on this extremely limited evidence, we might guess that lopez’s gaudy average really does mean something; can’t draw any firm conclusions from it with so few precedents, but in the last 40 years every guy who batted .385 for two months continued to produce at a decent clip the following year. lopez finishes this season with a .283 overall average; he batted .274 in 2006 and .291 in 2005, so it seems reasonable to characterize him as a reliable .280 hitter --- one with decent pop and good speed and an acceptable walk rate. pretty well-rounded offensive player for a middle infielder. he’s no good w/ the glove, but that’s why god made the defensive substitute. lopez will be 29 years old next year, and he wants to stick around; if the cards were to sign him up for a year or two, cheap, and make him the everyday 2bman, i wouldn’t mind.
re the lohse contract --- goold reports at Bird Land that it’s similar to the carlos silva deal from last winter, ie 4 years and $48m. if those figures are anywhere close to true, i think it’s a dreadful use of resources; all-star money for an average player. the contract has a chance to pay fair returns in year one, but by year three i think it’s gonna be a mangy dog --- the type of deal that makes the team worse, not better; the type of deal everybody bitches about on talk radio. at the very top of his game lohse might be worth $12m a year, but no player is at his peak all the time. he’s never going to give you a $15m season for your $12m --- he’s just not that good --- but he is very capable of having a $5m year. it’s nearly all downside risk; there’s almost no upside. check out the playoff teams this year; how many mid- to back-end starters are making $10m a year on those teams? i count two: ted lilly (who the cards could have had 2 years ago for less than they're now gonna pay lohse) and suppan, who had a joel pineiro-like season for the brewers and may not crack their postseason rotation. now look at the crappy teams ---- miguel batistas and jarrod washburns and kevin millwoodses and gil meches abound. the 2008 playoffs will be dominated by young, cost-controlled starting pitchers --- the dodgers, phillies, rays, angels, and twins / chisox are all trotting at least 2 of them out there. last year's playoffs were similarly skewed (see the rotations of the rockies, indians, dbacks).
ah hell; i'm repeating myself. here’s an old post that sums up my position. and here’s another one. whatever its defects, at least this contract will make la russa happy. . . . . .
tune in tomorrow for some information about important changes at VEB.
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hopefully it will be a virtual world, live conferencing veb
or something like that. or at least, maybe you could hear us talk or something. I’m as curious as anyone.
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
i’m kind of afraid of these “changes” being announced tommorrow.
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 29, 2008 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
My concern, too.
Blogging is hard work, incredible time commitment. It must work out to be about 15 cents an hour in compensation. If that. So I wonder . . .
by Youneverknow on Sep 29, 2008 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
maybe he's going to be the new Cardinals manager
so he can’t run the blog anymore…
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we could line up 200 comments
per entry, with 100 in incentives. Right?
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
The LaDuncan tax
We overpaid for Loshe because, IMHO, Tony and Dave were screaming for the team to resign Loshe as these guys overvalue vets. Is this a continuation of a higher magnitude of overpaying for Pineiro? In the case of D. Duncan, I think he does enough magic by resurrecting vets from the garbage bin that these two tendencies cancel each other out. But it’s maddening. When I heard we had reached a deal with Loshe I assumed the team was getting a moderate discount … 3 years $30 mill, something like that. If it is truly 4 years $48 mill (i.e., Silva), then I’ll puke.
OTOH maybe we're just that desperate
to get someone who can throw 200 innings.
re: Lohse
Lohse’s #1 comp at B-R is, guess who?…Jeff Suppan. I think you’re right that this likely will be a fine contract in the first two years but a pretty bad one in years 3 and 4. Pitchers like Lohse don’t age well (see: Suppan, Jeff) and in 2011, we’re going to be looking at spending between $27-30 M on two pitchers who either can’t pitch or aren’t good (Lohse and Carp). It helps us next year but hurts us beyond. Your idea of trading for Jarrod Washburn would’ve been a good one except that it seemed as though Washburn wanted a prospect + the other team to take the money. If we could’ve done Parisi for Washburn (Parisi wasn’t yet hurt), we should have.
Busy day in StL sports
Today we get “important news” from the Cards, most likely a Lohse deal and possibly some news on Duncan’s status, but we also get the news that Linehan has been fired and replaced by Haslett (per Bernie this was official at 2am StL time). I think both teams have a noon press conference, though I could be wrong on the time for the Cards one.
Cards is 4:30
per MLB Trade Rumors
So does the DG article mean payroll is going to remain stagnant?
“The Cardinals had a significant hunk of contracts expire Sunday and have said they plan to be aggressive this winter with about $30 million in flexibility. They have expressed an interest in adding two starting pitchers. Lohse’s salary will impact how much of a planned $15 million to $16 million starting-pitching purse remains for the second arm.”
Hard to say what $30 million in flexibility really means. Prior to the Lohse deal, it looks like there is a commitment to spend $62.7M next year to existing contracts. That includes Kennedy’s $4M, and $1.6M owed to make Mulder and Spezio go away. Does that mean $30M to fund contracts for:
—backup catcher
—two middle infielders (or three if TLR insists on having four again)
—the entire OF
—a utility player who can play the corners (or not if we have four MIFs)
—the entire bullpen except Franklin
—whatever starters not named Wainwright, Carpenter and Pineiro
If that is the case then is payroll really going to be lower next year? What am I missing. Without counting September callups, it looks like payroll (according to Cot’s) for 2008 was about $103M. $62.7M +$30M is about $10M less than the 2008 figure. I know some reserve needs to be held for in-season moves, but something doesn’t add up here.
If I am even close to right on these numbers and I understand DG correctly, then it really doesn’t make sense to spend 40% of the available salary dollars on Lohse. Also, does that mean only $3-4M is available for the second starter? I like him and appreciate his value to the 2008 team, but that rumored contract only makes sense if total payroll is going to rise.
I don’t know what kind of arb numbers Ank and Welly are going to get, but they will get pretty large raises most likely. Is Ludwick arb eligible? Somebody straighten me out, please.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
To answer your last question...
yes…and Thompson is, too. As for the rest of your post…I have no idea.
by cardzfanbub on Sep 29, 2008 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Awhile back we ran through the arb increases as well as the expiring contracts and came up with ~30 mil
To get back to ’08 payroll.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .259 .360 .378
Skip Schumaker: $Free .305 .361 .414
Skippy needs a new publicist
i would just have assumed
they re-upped looper. looper would have likely came for less $, less year and lohse would’ve been a type a free agent, thus netting an extra draft pick.
Amaury translates into "Punisher of Spheroids" in the lost tongue of Atlantis. Marti means "Belgian Waffle." www.futureredbirds.net
at least i think he would've been a type a.
Amaury translates into "Punisher of Spheroids" in the lost tongue of Atlantis. Marti means "Belgian Waffle." www.futureredbirds.net
Likely Type B
There is a Detroit Tigers blog that figured out the Elias rankings. Here’s the current projections.
Lohse is projected to be a type B, as of 9/21.
http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/2008/08/projected-elias-rankings.html
This blog gets linked to from MLB Trade Rumors regularly, so I guess I believe it.
I am happy we are working with Loshe
I reserve the right to change my mind once the contract is release. 3 years $36 mil good. 3 years $5 mil bad.
anything over 3 years would be bad
team or mutual option in the 4th year is fine, but pitchers 30+ y/o do not need a 4 year contract…i could live with 3/36 anything more would be detrimental to the teams future…
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
30+?
I agree. I really hope the 4th year is a team option. The only thing is (and this is picking nits) Lohse is not quite 30 yet. He turns 30 in a couple days, and he will pitch all of next year (except the playoffs) as a 30 year old. He is over 5 years younger than Derek Lowe, who seems to be quite the prized catch in a lot of Cardinals fans’ eyes.
I loved the deal a lot more yesterday when it was reported to be a little less than $10 million a year over 3 years + an option, but I think I can live with this, if we sign another dependable starter.
well,
Lowe is 35. Lohse is 29.
Plus, a 4 year deal for Lohse would be through his 30, 31, 32, and 33 year old seasons. Right in line with your "prime pitching years.
(for the record, I’m not exactly sure what point you’re making)
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
I was pointing out
how funny the english language sounds something. “over 5 years younger” is just a wierd sounding phrase. Sorry, the funny was lost some where between my brain, the keyboard and the internet.
Anyway. Aren’t we pretty much getting Lohse in his prime right now? The next 3-4 years should be his best before he starts to decline. (pending injuries.) I mean to me there isn’t much of a difference between a 33 year old pitcher and a 34 year old pitcher.
Well Lowe has consistently been good, Lohse has not
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .259 .360 .378
Skip Schumaker: $Free .305 .361 .414
Skippy needs a new publicist
doesn't Lowe have a weakness against left handed hitters?
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
OPS
not so much last year
2008
.638 vs RH
.635 vs LH
Career
.632 vs RH
.740 vs LH
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
I think people need to take in contrast
That Lowe pitches in the NL West by far the weakest division in baseball. So he facing lower quality teams than someone say in the NL East or NL Central. His numbers are inflated by pitching in a pitchers park against poorer competition.
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 29, 2008 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Wait what?
NL West is the weakest? Wasn’t that the NL Central last year? When comparing accross years of work you can’t limit one part of your analysis to a single season. This year the NL West sucked but for the previous 2 that was the NL central, previous to that the NL Central was awesome, divisions change yearly.
According to B-R Dodger Stadium favors hitters both this year and multi-year
plus he has to pitch on the road at two of the best hitters parks in baseball. That said, it is always a good idea to look at the home venue for both pitchers and hitters to see what impact it may have. It would seem to make sense that a pitcher who spend so many years in Fenway would give up a little higher OPS to LHs.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Larussa will only be partly happy
he needs his impact bat!
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 10:02 AM EDT reply actions
As for Lopez
I think his .400+ BAbip has more to do with his time with the Cards more than any skill.
Is that Adam Kennedy?
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
yeah
it’s his weird expression after hitting that grand slam against the cubs. like I am very relieved, but somehow very surprised that I did that. and I am getting tired.
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think you can consider it.....
Overpaying. That might be true based on his talent, but not based on his market value. Just about any player worth a darn is getting a bigger contract than they are worth. And IMO, that makes locking up some of these guys before they ever get a chance at FA a key.
There isn’t going to be much out there this year on the market, and we’re in need of at least 2 SP’s probably. CC and Sheets are likely out of our range. AJ isn’t going anywhere, it doesn’t look like. Lowe might have been an option, but would have wanted the same type of money we’re throwing to Lohse. Really, what other option(s) did we have?
As for Lopez, I think we might have found something. Nobody has ever denied his talent, but more of his motivation. Coming to a team that has good leadership, expects hard, consistent play, and that is actually playing for something will nearly always boost a player’s peformance. Plus he has protection here. He isn’t the best, or 2nd best hitter in STL. He get’s overlooked. I really think Oquendo can make him a respectable 2B, and he fits in VERY nicely in the 2-hole in front of Albert.
if we upgrade at SS
i really do not have a problem with Floppy at 2B…MLBTradeRumors thinks Lowe could get $18M per which would be significantly bigger than what Lohse would draw even out on the market although I would much rather have DownLowe…
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
it's true based on talent AND on market value
he’ll be fine for 2 years. In two years, he’ll be a replacement level starter earning (probably) more than $12 M. You cannot tell me that the market value for a replacement level pitcher in two years will be $12 M per year. It just won’t be. We would be able to replace him w/ any one of Todd, Mortensen, Garcia, Boggs, or maybe Ottavino or anybody else for the minimum. He probably will be worth $12 M next year and maybe even in 2010. He won’t come close (if he’s anything like his #1 comp — Jeff Suppan) in 2011 or 12.
Why?
In two years his age still won’t be a problem, as far as his physical skills go. And $12M, for a #3/4 starting pitcher, in 2-3 years, will likely be a STEAL.
I really don’t understand why you think this will be bad in 2 years. Lohse shouldn’t be any different of a pitcher then than he is now.
by SoonerfanTU on Sep 29, 2008 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Do you mean the pitcher he was this season?
Or do you mean the pitcher he has been for most of his career?
I think he'll be the pitcher he was this year.....
For the most part.
by SoonerfanTU on Sep 29, 2008 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Dont' forget
about the lousy defenses and close outfield walls behind him in Cincy and Philly
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Sep 29, 2008 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Because he'll be 31 years old
pitchers like Lohse (and Suppan) don’t age well. Look at his other comps — Jose Lima, Jason Jennings, Joel Pineiro, Steve Trachsel, Ricky Bones, Todd Stottlemyre, Sidney Ponson. Did any one of them get better into their 30’s? Any of them?
He’ll be fine for 2 years (as Suppan was w/ the Brewers). In years 3 and 4, we’ll be paying $12 M (or more, if the contract’s backloaded) for a below average to replacement level pitcher. You said below that no one’s ready to step in. Today that’s probably true but there’s a host of pitchers in the minors who would be able to step in in 2010 and certainly in 2011 and 2012. Instead, we’ll have an overpriced pitcher we can’t trade (b/c of the contract).
4 years for Kyle Lohse is a bad deal.
I never said I would be a big fan.....
of a 4th year. Lets wait and see exactly what the contract looks like before assuming there is one. And I just don’t understand how you can say without doubt, that after 2 seasons he’ll start being unproductive. There is no magic formula. Age shouldn’t be an issue. He doesn’t have a ton of innings on his arm. He isn’t a power guy.
I worry more about him losing effectiveness should Duncan/TLR not be around after 2009. That is a bigger concern to me.
And sometimes you have to pay.....
For a bad 4th year, to get the 3 good ones. I know that sucks, but in today’s game, I really don’t see another option. Sure we could scrap by and sign somebody not as good, or rely on Boggs/Thompson/JP, but this team has a chance to be pretty good next year. It’d be a darn shame to not do everything we could to try to win next year. Mo gets paid alot of money to figure out the finances in 2011/2012 if that isn’t a good contract then.
I'm just not willing to scrap
2011 and 2012 to have a #3/#4 starter in 2009. And you’re likely going to end up paying for 2 bad years at a higher price (if the contract is backloaded) to get 2 pretty good ones. If they frontload the contract (but no one ever does), it might change my opinion. Unfortunately, teams never do that.
why are we scrapping two years again?
Just because Suppan did? Come on. Anyone who has followed Lohse throughout his career knows he has better stuff than those comps. And his last year and a half or so have shown him as a pitcher making good on his ability. Maybe he will suck for two years, maybe he will for 4 years, but Lohse is not Ricky Bones or Jose Lima, or Jeff Suppan. Scrap indeed. It is a gamble, yes, as is any FA contract. But writing off his 3 and 4 years right now doesn’t make sense.
by abothecardinal on Sep 29, 2008 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
Not every move is going to be awesome now, and predictably awesome down the road.
Love the point about good GMs adjusting down the road. +1 there , too.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Sep 29, 2008 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I can't say anything definitively
no one can. But we look at all the available information and make an educated guess. Name 1 pitcher w/ a low K rate and high GB rate who has aged well. Glavine and Maddux were freaks. Lohse isn’t in their category (and neither had low K rates for most of their careers). There is a long line of pitchers like Lohse who got worse into their early 30s and a very short line who don’t. Maybe Lohse will be the exception but didn’t we think that of Carpenter also? Wasn’t he a “freak?” When each one of your top 10 comps by age aged poorly and got worse, often dramatically so, in the years when Lohse is going to be paid a ton of money, I’m going to go w/ the facts that are there.
And as for the details of the contract, Strauss said it’s going to be like Silva’s contract so that’s what I’m going by. If it’s a 3 year deal, even w/ an option, that’s better but it would be inconsistent w/ what the p-d reported.
my gut feeling is that Lohse won't have as much downturn
since he’s been healthy consistently, among other things
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
The cost of pitching, even thoroughly
average pitching, is stupid, and will only get stupider. Are you really going to lose sleep over this? I just can’t get upset about the Lohse deal. Remember how at one time high-OBP players were undervalued in MLB? Well I think SPs who throw 190+ innings and stay off the DL are undervalued by statheads.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Sep 29, 2008 10:26 AM EDT reply actions
i disagree with this
i think inning eaters are valued even by stat heads…the ability take up 190+ innings is something of great value esp if it is at least league avg production…but i think the market over-values it more than stat head under-values it. a league average pitcher that can stay healthy enough to pitch in 190+ innings is not worth more than $10M/year but yet there are a lot of pitchers that make more than this that are league avg or <: Silva, Suppan, Pettite, Schmidt, Hampton, Pedro, Zito, Millwood, Arroyo, etc…granted some of those were better than league avg when their contract was signed…
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
"a league average pitcher that can stay healthy
enough to pitch in 190+ innings is not worth more than $10M/year …"
Sounds arbitrary to me. The market sets the price but in baseball the market is pretty damn small and volatile. In four years $12 mil for a SP is likely to be no big deal.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Sep 29, 2008 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
maybe we shoudl think of it
in terms of payroll percentage? Assuming the payroll does not increase, can we afford to commit almost 1/8 of our total team payroll to one pitcher who may or may not be above-average?
I guess with Welley and AW still cheap, and if we skimp on a shortstop, we can. but this contract is going to have us scheming to find a way to trade the guy within a year or two, and will make it that much harder to extend ankiel/luddy/etc. This seems almost exactly like the Encarnacion deal to me, at least in that way; overpaying for mediocrity which will keep us from being able to overpay for greatness later.
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
perhaps this says that
they will replace ludwick and ankiel with Rasmus, Jones, etc.
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't forget we'll lose JP's
Contract after next year, or maybe even this offseason. Lohse would essentially replace him, with a bit more salary, but not a ton.
by SoonerfanTU on Sep 29, 2008 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Do you mean Carp?
If you ain’t pitching, you ain’t average.
lboros-does this mean
Carpenter is far worse off than they’re telling us? I agree it’s a big allocation of resources, but my first thought was that they know Carp will not be viable and they need someone. Otherwise, why so sudden a shift of priorities? Do they think they’ll be collecting insurance on Carp’s deal?
by vinniefromjersey on Sep 29, 2008 10:42 AM EDT reply actions
Isn't it kinda obvious that Carp is a 50/50 crapshoot?
I have high hopes, but I don’t think we can count on him. Let alone 150+ inning from him.
Looper?
I take this to mean, with Mo’s comments the other day about only being able to sign 1 of Lohse or Looper, that we have seen our last of Braden Looper in a Cardinal uniform. I guess he could give us a significant hometown discount, but I don’t see that as likely.
very possiable
Carpenter’s status might change that. But I doubt it. I wish good luck to Looper if he isn’t a Cardinal next year. Im sure some team will gobble him up quickly.
if only he had those wins
I’m not a huge Lohse fan, but I bet if he ended the season with 18 wins (which he easily could have had) we’d all be excited about this deal. Wins, as a stat, is poo-pooed around here, and with good reason, but you know y’all are suckers for wins.
Carlos Silva money for a 200 innings, 3.7 ERA, 18 win pitcher who likes it here and showed several sustained flashes of 2nd man in the rotation performance and is still relatively young sounds pretty good to me. Sure the later years are risky, but that is the market. There may be other strategies that might pay bigger dividends (either in the pocket book or performance) but this seems like a no-brainer to me.
The Suppan comp would worry me but the eye-ball test says Lohse has better stuff than Suppan did. Also, if it makes anyone feel better, Lohse has 400 less MLB innings pitched on his arm than Suppan did at that age.
by abothecardinal on Sep 29, 2008 11:08 AM EDT reply actions
i'm not a sucker for wins
and doesn’t Lohse have 15? Not too shabby, not that I particularly care. The idea that I (or that most of us) would like this deal better if he had 18 wins is completely untrue.
we'll never know
Maybe it is true, maybe it isn’t. We’ll al have to search our own hearts for the answer that only we can discover ourselves.
by abothecardinal on Sep 29, 2008 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
okay
SInce you crossed your heart you can consider yourself as not part of the “y’all.”
by abothecardinal on Sep 29, 2008 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm mostly with HC here.
your average fan probably likes it a lot better if he gets a couple of more wins…I actually would’ve liked it less as with a couple of more wins he may have been a type A. Most of the posters here are not average fans, and wins are almost completely transparent. We want to know his FIP, K rate (his worst stat), groundball rate, BABIP and K/BB ratio…and a little about his repertoire. Everything else is out of a pitcher’s control.
by cardzfanbub on Sep 29, 2008 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
I always get confused when people talk about k rate
not so much with pitchers though, but more as being contradictory to their stances on k rates in regards to hitters.
I often hear that a higher k rate is preferred with pitchers, yet I hear a lot of people downplay a high k rate for hitters (since a k is only 1 out and it’s better than hitting into a dp).
So, while taking this to the most basic level, wouldn’t a high k rate play into the notion that a k is not the worst thing a hitter can do? I mean, if we want pitchers who strike guys out, but don’t mind when hitters strike out because “it could be much worse!!!!”, seems like there’s a disconnect there.
Am I wrong? (and I feel I already know the answer)
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
i don't have an answer, in fact you might be on to something
but could it be similar to how babip tells you different things for hitters and pitchers?
furthermore, i think people downplay hitters’ strike-out rates mostly for the benefit of studly power hitters. it’s rare that you see an albert pujols type of player that hits for very high average, very high power, and doesn’t strike out very much. so i would guess that these other power hitters, by virtue of what makes them successful (their power) tend to strike out a lot as a result, and they are still valuable. it might even be true that these guys would be less effective overall if they changed their approach just to strike out less. maybe their power would drop if they just tried to make contact more. lastly, you can still get on base plenty even if you strike out a lot (see adam dunn).
I think it's a matter of...
a K is always a good thing for a pitcher and a K is always a bad thing for a hitter…there are situations where it’s not the best (pitcher)/worst (hitter) outcome, but a K is never a bad thing for a pitcher to acquire nor a good thing for a hitter to produce. Of course there is the pitch count argument…I really don’t feel like digging into it, though. Taking it to the most basic level a K is the only way to guaruntee an out.
by cardzfanbub on Sep 29, 2008 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
the only way a K is a bad thing
is if the hitter would have hit into a double play instead of striking out. it would be interesting to see if Lohse induces a lot of DPs
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
How does this make a K...
a bad thing? Maybe not the best thing, but certainly not a bad thing. That’s like saying a two run double is a good thing because it wasn’t a three run homer…
didn't you see the qualifier in my sentence?
the only way it’s bad is if you somehow could know that the batter would have hit into a dp
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
the qulifier was "the only way"
actually
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
a K hitting is bad
just not as bad as a DP. This sounds elementary but I think you bring up some good points. We can look past Adam Dunn’s Ks b/c he walks so often and hits so many bombs. But if you look at someone who hits 15 bombs, those 130 Ks are a ton. It seems as though you get this.
From a pitching perspective, Ks are indicative of a pitcher’s ability to miss bats. Hit balls become hits and some become homers. Hits lead to runs. Homers…well, you get it. Pitchers who miss bats can control the outcome of the PA much better than pitchers who don’t b/c once the ball leaves the bat, a pitcher has no control over where it goes or how far the batter runs.
Again, I think you get this and I’ll admit to being one of those who isn’t caught up in Ks. The caveat is that we’re talking about hitters who hit homers. Ks do matter for weaker hitters b/c they’re hitting singles instead. Dunn can compensate for his Ks by walking 150 times and hitting 45 homers. Still, he’d be much better if he struck out 100 times instead of 200.
i think a good question is:
could hypothetical adam dunn cut his ks in half and maintain the walks and homers? i think most of these guys go with what works, and probably would be afraid to change their approach so dramatically.
The corollary
is that pitchers who miss bats are probably more likely to induce off-center contact as well.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Yeah, most of what I was posting was tougue-in-cheek
Since I know it’s not quite as black and white as I how I was stating it. Which is why I said I was taking it to a basic level. But I still think there is a double standard in regards to the two positions. Not that it’s that big of a deal, but I think sometimes people argue out of both sides of their mouth at times and don’t realize their doing it.
But that’s just me. I tend to pick up on stuff like that, and it seems by throwing it out there, I inadvertently created a discussion that doesn’t exactly have a true answer or something.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
There's a big big difference
Hitters with big K-rates also sport (or had better sport) big power. A hitter can off-set the negatives of striking out by hitting way more homers than the average player. A hitter who doesn’t have power and still strikes out a ton is worthless.
Pitchers with high k-rates turn average-powered hitters (by near definition pitchers will face a spread of hitters with average power) into high strikeout hitters. I get to quote myself one sentence back!:
A hitter who doesn’t have power and still strikes out a ton is worthless.
Hence pitcher k-rates are much more important.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .259 .360 .378
Skip Schumaker: $Free .305 .361 .414
Skippy needs a new publicist
Correct
Hitters that strike out a lot at the MLB level almost always have big time power to offset the holes in their swings. They also tend to walk a lot and see a lot more pitches.
Pitchers with low K rates basically turn Ryan Howard into Albert
15 wins is enough for me
he saved the season, along with APu and Luddy, the Colonel of course
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
also
I’m bothered by quotes like “but that is the market.” In other words, he’s not worth it. We know he’s not worth it, but so what? You have to pay $12 M to get mediocre pitching. No you don’t. You could play younger, cost-controlled guys (who we’ll have in a year or two) instead of giving $12 M to a replacement level pitcher. Is that where Lohse is now? No but that’s where he’ll be in 2 years. If we can’t get him on a 2 year deal (which we surely couldn’t have) then why pay the exorbitant price tage in years 3 and 4? If the answer is, “because that’s what the market says,” I profoundly disagree. Giving long-term deals to mediocre players is why teams get into financial trouble. Jeff Suppan won’t even make the Brewers playoff rotation, probably, and, if he does, he’ll likely get pounded by the Phils. It’s not a good way to run a baseball team.
Lohse is not Suppan
I like watching Suppan better because I enjoy watching a guy get more out of less. But Lohse is a better pitcher. And I think he could even get better in the coming years (whereas Suppan always looked like he was playing over his head).
by abothecardinal on Sep 29, 2008 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Lohse's #1 comp per baseball-reference
one Jeff Suppan. They were remarkably similar up to age 29. Since Suppan turned 30, the age Lohse will be next year, Suppan’s had 1 good season, 2 OK seasons, and 1 terrible season. He’s not Suppan now, but he will be in 4 years b/c at the same age, they were basically the same pitcher. Well, that’s not exactly true. Suppan had thrown 6 straight seasons of 188 or more innings by age 29. Lohse has 2 (but 5 out of 7). During that 6 year stretch, Suppan had 5 seasons w/ an ERA+ greater than 100. Lohse has had 3 (and 1 w/ exactly 100).
Pitchers like Lohse and Suppan do not age well. Suppan hasn’t and he’s given us a window into what to expect from Lohse. A 1 or 2 year deal, even for more $, would’ve been fine. However, in years 3 and 4, he will, in all likelihood be below average and probably, in year 4, a replacement level pitcher — as Suppan is today. I love your optimism but see no reason why a pitcher like Lohse — a ground ball pitcher who doesn’t strike many out — will get better between the ages of 30 and 33. Jose Lima didn’t. Jason Jennings didn’t. Steve Trachsel didn’t. Joel Pineiro hasn’t and won’t. These are all Lohse’s comps. Pineiro’s 3 months older than Lohse. Would you give him a 4 year, $48 M contract? Neither would I.
who's to say that Lohse will age like Suppan?
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
he could be the beautiful, unique snowflake
but we’re betting $50M that he’ll age differently than pretty much every other guy with a similar skill set.
Hope they are right.
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
I agree
he may be very comparable to Suppan, but he has better stuff and is younger
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
you're not quite getting it
at the same age they are comparable. Suppan does not compare to him now but at age 29 he compares to Lohse this year at age 29 so going forward it is very likely that they will age similar and Lohse will have about the same peripherals as Suppan did this year when he is 33. They had quite similar stuff then too although i think Lohse has more tools than Suppan but not as much as one might think.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
I only think Lohse is slightly better than Suppan
and it’s unfair to say that he’s a clone of Suppan, is the only thing I’m getting at.
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Comparables are handy
but often people take them as gospel.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
He's not younger
than Jeff Suppan was when he was 29. My comparison isn’t to Suppan today. Nor is B-R’s. It’s to Suppan when he was 29. In his age 30 season, Suppan was very good. In his age 31, about league average. Age 32 — slightly below league average. Age 33 — terrible. Suppan’s not alone but he’s the best comp there is. A 3 year deal would probably be a pretty good one. A 4 year deal will be pretty bad.
One corollary to this is that these contracts are often backloaded. Now I don’t as yet know the details of the Lohse contract, but he’s likely to be getting paid $14 – 16 M per year during the years when he’s going to be worse and, at least in year 4, probably pretty bad. In year 3, he’ll be getting $12 – 14 M and likely be worse than league average while we’re paying Chris Carpenter more than $16 to probably do nothing. That’s nearly $30 M in 2010 thrown away.
The other corollary is that this contract makes less sense the MORE we get from Carpenter. Now, I for one am expecting nothing from Carp so that’s the only thing that’ll make this contract palatable. We can fill 1 spot in the rotation w/o too much of an ordeal, at least by 2010 so the opportunity cost of this sort of signing is higher w/ Carp pitching. W/o Carp, Lohse becomes the 4th of 5 starters (not necessarily the #4 starter) and there’s still a hole to fill so the opportunity cost is lower.
I agree with the sentiment...
and feel you only give multi-year deals to difference makers, but I don’t see Lohse as “replacement level” in two years. Right now he is a bit better than league average and at the end of his deal (still only 33 years old) he’ll be right around league average. By definition there’s a pretty big gap between league average and replacement level.
by cardzfanbub on Sep 29, 2008 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
his career ERA+ is 97
so he is already league average. he has only had 2 season over 100 besides this year and they were 105 and 106 which would still be considered league average…this is the only year he has been above league average at 113.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
and he just entered his prime, right?
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
no he is in the middle of it
and on the two down side years of it
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
sounds pretty matter of fact
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Career wise..
he is just below league average…but he also played in two “hitter’s” parks. I think you’re nit-picking a bit. I said he’s a bit above league average…do you not agree with this? I think the consensus would agree with me here. My main point is that replacement level is supposed to be the worst pitchers in the league (that still belong in the league) something like 80 ERA+. There’s a big gap between league average and replacement level.
I don't think Minnesota is a hitters park.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
i think he meant
philly and cincy
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
especially not when the Twins
are in the field. Just a snarky remark about how they allegedly controlled the air conditioning to help the home team in the past.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
most of his career was in a pretty extreme pitchers park
in Minny and only 45 of his 250 career games was with Philly and Cincy and only half of those were in their stadiums…
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
in conclusion,
he will be a league average pitcher over the contract most likely…a little above in the beginning and a little below at the end…
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
with backloaded contracts, however,
he’ll be worse than league average while he’s at his most expensive. Hopefully, this contract isn’t backloaded and the salary remains the same throughout. In an ideal world, it’s frontloaded though no team ever does that.
didn't we have a big 'ol economics discussion a while back
about how backloading a contract is beneficial to the team?
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
not that I know of
but it’d be tough to convince me. He gets worse and we pay more $. That’s better for the team?
Yeah, there are a bunch of really smart economics/finace guys
who are on here (sorry, i can’t remember exactly who) who went on and on about how it’s better to backload because of inflation or money-in-hand or something else.
Btw, economics and finance are by far and away NOT my strong suit. I’m basically putting out a Bat Signal to those that were in or remember that conversation here or might have the link to the discussion (which would probably be better than rehashing the whole thing again).
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
yeah, it's basic present and future value stuff.
The same amount of money is worth less in the future. Assuming a 3% inflation, a $12M salary in 2011/2012 is worth the same as $10.98M / $10.66 today.
It’s the same reason you don’t put your savings under the mattress (though with what is going on right now, the mattress might be safer ;)
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
I get present and future value stuff
ok, and I get your example here. My complaint isn’t those sorts of contracts so much (ok, it is a little) but rather those that are low-ball offers today to allow the team to get more players that you pay for in spades later.
An example, to use Jeff Suppan again, his 4 year contract paid him $6 M, $8 M, $12.5 M and $12.5 M, respectively. That’s a huge jump for a guy who’s gotten worse over the course of the contract (and will continue to). I’m not really that concerned about $1.5 M nominal but rather those whose early years are basically paid for by a credit card whose interest comes due in the later years.
but rather those that are low-ball offers today to allow the team to get more players that you pay for in spades later.
and not only do you pay for them later, you pay for them when you have the least amount of reliable information – the future (well into the future actually).
Backloaded contracts to me are a lot like cars with balloon payments, as the value goes down and you’re hit at the end of the contract with a huge sum.
I’m against back loaded contracts because we don’t know what supply and demand will look like in the future. Lohse, two years removed, just got Suppan money. Did we win because when you consider inflation of those two years we actually spent less? Of course not.
I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang
by AdjustedExpectations on Sep 29, 2008 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions
that's a bad analogy
long term car payments are a bad idea only because you have to pay interest on the loan, which makes the effective purchase price much higher. In this case, the player effectively gives the org an interest-free loan in exchange for job security.
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
It's not
I mean, yeah money and inflation go hand in hand, but that argument was the basis for why teams should hold onto the money longer with a back loaded contract.
The issues with that are many, among them you don’t have a weighted perceived value of your player (you don’t know what your player is going to do 4 years from now and the road he’ll be on, but you do have a damn good idea next year).
You remove the power to trade or absorb sunk costs later in the contract, you tie future funds without knowing future needs, you allow a player to control his own finances, and you’re more apt to go into future seasons with a better edge on present day needs.
Among many others. I need to dig up that old thread.
I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang
by AdjustedExpectations on Sep 29, 2008 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by backloading the contract
we saved almost $5M in 2012 dollars over the life of the contract (maybe a lot more, if interest rates stay at 5.4% as it is right now).
If we need to trade him then, we can throw $5M 2012 dollars into the deal and break even from the club’s standpoint.
i don’t get what you mean by “player control his own finances”. Can you explain?
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
eh, inflation
not interest rates. Flimflam confused me.
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
i was
and I loved that thread.
Still contend that you’re better off to front load contracts. Inflation doesn’t hold much weight in the thick of things.
I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang
by AdjustedExpectations on Sep 29, 2008 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree
Have you seen where the dollar is heading?
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 29, 2008 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Stark picks awards
He gives Pujols the MVP . I like this quote. “But I know how. Pujols is how.”
I want Joe Maddon....
Does this not reek of a young TLR?
There are no other managers on Earth who talk like Joe Maddon, think like Joe Maddon or wear those professorial glasses like Joe Maddon. And this year, there is nobody else on Earth who has managed as well as Joe Maddon, either.
Call me crazy, but I actually like it that we have a manager who actually tries to think his way through a season. Maybe it’s because I am an engineer and its how I have been trained, but I love it when somebody uses his brain to “think outside the box”. Now don’t get me wrong, Tony drives me crazy sometimes with some of the stuff that he does, but at least he is trying to be creative and win at all costs.
I think that Joe Maddon (who admitted earlier this year when the Rays were in town to being a Cardinal fan as a kid) would be a grade A++++ perfect fit the for Cardinals from here on out. They are a young team (Rays… anybody?? anybody) and they are trying to be run in a conscience and cost effective manner (Rays again…. anybody anybody??
SlamalamaJackADongWick cares very little about your draft pick standing-by gdm426
by FredbirdisaDork on Sep 29, 2008 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
oops... that second paragraph is screwed up
only think in the first sentence should be italicized… not everything else
SlamalamaJackADongWick cares very little about your draft pick standing-by gdm426
by FredbirdisaDork on Sep 29, 2008 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
gil meche
in his last 21 starts of the year, he was 11-3 (team record in those starts: 15-6) with a 3.09 era and a .242/.300/.352 opponent batting line. admittedly, he got off to a bad start, but rebounding to put up those numbers with the royals defense is pretty solid. he’s hardly the reason the royals aren’t in the playoffs.
Beating Expectations?
According to our community projection, Lohse only really outperformed in counting stats, ERA, and not actual performance. Is 16 extra innings pitched really that much of a surprise?
VEB: 29, 184, 196, 56, 118, 21, 11, 11, 4.42, 1.371
2008: 33, 200, 211, 49, 119, 18, 15, 6, 3.78. 1.30
(GS, IP, H, BB, SO, HR, W, L, ERA, WHIP)
I would say that the W-L and ERA numbers were driving my positive impressions of his performance this year. However, I think this impression is real and not totally a function of the numbers. Generally speaking, you do tend to like a pitcher more when your team is winning.
how are ground ball outs this year?
I was under the impression the first few months of the season that his improvement were the resault of greater ground ball outs.(better defense.)
Much higher Ground Out/Fly Out ratio
according to MLB.
by enoscountry on Sep 29, 2008 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Smells like the Pineiro deal to me
I remember the last time we got out in front of the market and signed a pitcher for more than he was worth. That was last year with El Pinata. I hope that is not the case this time around. If we are really giving him 4 years at $48M, then we’ll know who is running the franchise. It’s not Mo, but LaDunc. And that means all of this talk about farm development and plugging in young talent has been nothing but hot air.
Let me be clear, though, that we do need an arm—just not an arm for 4 years (at $12M/year no less). A 3-year deal might be palatable, but this will be an albatross by Year 4, I fear. The above comparisons to Suppan are what has been noted on this blog since before the Cards even signed Lohse. Unfortunately, we seem to be making the mistake on Lohse that we refused to make on Suppan (i.e. overpaying in years and dollars for his services).
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
What young SP's do we have to plug in?
Boggs is the only one that is even an option in the next year or two, most likely, and he really needs to develop another pitch to be a starter. Garcia is out. Parisi doesn’t impress me. Who exactly, were we suppose to plug in?
And you realize that we still only have 3 SP’s that will definitely start next year, right? Waino, Welly, and Lohse. Carp if healthy. JP if we have to. There are still openings if a young guy impresses.
by SoonerfanTU on Sep 29, 2008 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Mortenson and Todd...
both finished the year at AAA. Lance something? (name escapes me) is supposed to be a fast mover. By the end of 2009 and certainly by 2010 we should have at least one guy (maybe three+) ready to contribute. Don’t forget Garcia, either. I know you’re more of a proven veteran than a prospect kinda guy, but surely you don’t think all of Boggs, Parisi, Mortenson, Todd, and Garcia are going to contribute nothing…?
by cardzfanbub on Sep 29, 2008 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Recent Cardinal history.....
Says not to expect much out of those guys, right?
I don’t think Garcia will be ready against until late 2010. Parisi is a Brad Thompson clone to me, or a bullpen guy. I don’t know a ton about Todd, but alot of folks think he’ll end up in the pen.
Like I said above, I don’t have a problem plugging a guy in as the 4th/5th starter, and I think beginning in 2010 there will be spots to do that. Heck, there might still be a spot to do that in the 2009 rotation. I think it is important though, with the recent injuries we’ve had, and the uncertaintanty of a few of our SP’s, to get a guy like Lohse that can at least eat some innings, and save your bullpen.
by SoonerfanTU on Sep 29, 2008 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
What history would that be?
Wainwright? Reyes (who was pitching very well for Cleveland before his elbow started barking)? Who is the pitcher that pitched well as a starter in AAA and didn’t contribute to the team that I’m not able to recall…let alone five of them? If you’re saying you don’t think any of these guys will contribute..then I guess you’re right – at least as far as you’re concerned. I certainly disagree.
Reyes. Was. Not. Pitching. Well. In. Cleveland.
3.93 K/9 with a 1.25 K/BB 1.19 GB/FB. Please find me a single pitcher in the history of the big leagues that has put together stats like that and not been worthless.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .259 .360 .378
Skip Schumaker: $Free .305 .361 .414
Skippy needs a new publicist
Yeah, but look at the wins.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
His periph's may not have been great...
but he started six games and four were quality starts. The other two were:
5IP, 2 ER – is this a quality start? I think the threshold is 6 innings.
3IP, 0ER, 1BB and 1H – elbow started barking.
His WHIP was 1.26 with Cleveland. I’m not sure what your definition of pitching “well” is…but this fits in mine (I didn’t say he was pitching great). Or were you arguing just to argue?
Find me one pitcher in MLB history with sustained success with that line
It’s not good pitching. It’s luck.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist
joker 24....
First Inning might help solve the “mystery” of Reyes non sensical stats.
If you want to know why he managed to be successful it is this:
In 34 1/3 innings he pitched, he allowed 31 hits. Pretty solid.
Of those 31 hits, 3 were doubles, 2 were homeruns, 0 were triples, and a whopping 26 of those hits were singles. Pretty solid.
His ground ball rate with the Indians is 47%. Not enough to call him a ground ball pitcher, but enough to think that he got a ground ball when he had to have one.
They were not making good contact against him, witness all the singles. Some good luck? Maybe. Last season he had good peripherals and lousy record and ERA. Some bad luck? Maybe. Maybe the luck factor is even for him now.
The low K rate may very well bring him trouble in 2009, but it really didn’t in his 6 starts with them in 2008. The folks in Cleveland, the ones he has to live with now, have been extremely pleased with his work so far. So long as they like his work, it doesn’t matter what you or I or the stats say anyway……
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
We didn't draft Waino.....
And Reyes is an odd case, no matter how you feel about it.
I’m completely blanking on names, but looking back, we’ve had a ton of similiar pitching talent to what you named above, that didn’t amount to anything, not really even a 5th SP type. Guys like Blake Williams, Narveson, Pope, Parrott, Dove, Lambert, McCormick, Brey, and the guy that played QB in college.
How many of those guys were drafted by the 'scouts' based
people that left this system in a mess and how many of them were drafted by Lunhow’s stat-driven guys who have completely rebuilt this system?
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 29, 2008 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think it really matters.....
For the point I’m making. Some of the guys that are still in the system fall under the “scouts” method too, I think. And while I expect our drafts to be better, the point still stands that especially with pitching, when you aren’t talking about aces or legit #2’s, alot of them fail in a big way. We don’t have a single SP spect in the system that is even being projected as a legit 1/2 guy, do we? And alot of them are borderline SP’s anyways. I’m just saying, I don’t think we have a problem where we are going to have guys like Waino, Ankiel (beginning years), Haren, etc getting blocked.
but the point is that Kyle Lohse doesn't project to be a
1/2 type guy, so why pay him $12 M a year to be no better than a guy making $500k?
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 29, 2008 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
That'd be quite an argument
to try and make. 3, yes. 2, no way. Unless you expect an even better career year next year.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 29, 2008 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
And I think that's the point
Those in favor of signing Lohse at the reported years / dollars are assuming he will continue to pitch like he did this year, which was unquestionably the best of his career. Those opposed are assuming his numbers will end up being more like his career numbers, which are considerably less impressive.
I tend to agree with the second proposition — we shouldn’t be paying for career years, or for dramatic improvement over a short time span. We did it with Piniero, and I’m afraid we’ll do it again with Lohse and Lopez, with similar results.
by Ray Lankford on Sep 29, 2008 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions
exactly
12M a year for a #2 pitcher…yes
12M a year for a 4 or 5….hell no
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
congrats to the Redsking HCL
glad they beat the boys yesterday afternoon
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
HAIL TO THE REDSKINS
HAIL TO VICTORY!
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 29, 2008 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
i'll echo that
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 29, 2008 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't care who drafted them...
I couldn’t care less how we got Boggs and the other guys we’re talking about…my question was how many guys have pitched effectively at the AAA level and then not contributed to the big league team. I’m not sure, but nobody on your list fits that bill IMO. We haven’t had guys like this to compare them to. So far, the guys that have pitched successfully in “recent” years in Memphis have contributed at the big league level. The problem is we haven’t had many pitch well at the AAA level in recent years.
Boggs and Parisi...
both had very good years at Memphis this year. Garcia pitched “well” at least by my definition. Todd didn’t pitch enough to say good or bad…but did have a 3.97 ERA in 22 innings. Mortensen was the only guy I listed who didn’t pitch all that well, but he’s young and in only his first full professional season
I do get your point
But also by the time all our young arms are ready, Carp will be off-contract. Wainright will be in the last year or 2. Welley will be either extended or gone. There will be plenty of holes to fill with or without Loshe on the team.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
I'm not sure what you mean by all of our young arms...
but I think three of those guys (listed above) could be ready sometime in 2009 and the other two by 2010. Carp is signed through 2011 with an option for 2012 ditto Wainwright (has second option for 2013) per Cots. If any of these guys listed become effective big leaguers they’ll do it before Carp and WW are gone (if both finish their current deals with STL). I think it’s very possible a four year deal for Lohse could be blocking a better pitcher by 2010 and WILL be by 2012.
How so?
Next year, we’ve got 4 rotation spots filled as of opening day (assuming Lohse signs). Wainwright, Wellemeyer, Lohse and Piniero. Of those four guys, only Wainwright and Lohse would be under contract for 2010. That leaves 3 rotation spots (2 if you still have Wellemeyer), so how exactly is that blocking anyone?
Btw, if you notice, I haven’t mentioned Carpenter because he’s a long shot to take up any rotation spot from here on out.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
Plus
you add in normal attrition through trade and injury, and we will be lucky to get half of these guys to the big club any way. Has anyone ever said “Well, Tom, we have way too much pitching. We’re just gonna have to cut a few guys.”
I am not debating Loshe’s effectiveness. What I will say about him is this. He is relatively healthy. He seems relatively drama-free in the clubhouse. He had a good year. He does project (barring injury) to have similar years going forward.
He is a known quantity in a field of question marks that make up our rotation.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
care to argue semantics?
Seriously…is it not very possible that in 2010 Carp, WW, Wellemeyer and two of these guys could be in the rotation? Last I heard Carps issue wasn’t thought to be serious…unique and uncertain, but the prognosis seemed to be good. By 2012 you don’t think we could have Wainwright, Carp, and three of these guys or who knows who else is in the lower rungs of our system? I think it’s very possible. FWIW I do think the team will try to sign Wellemeyer to at least a three year deal this Spring rather than one.
Believe what you want
but the chances of Carpenter throwing 200 innings over the course of the rest of his contract is very low.
So, I would say it’s highly unlikely that in 2010 Carp will be in the rotation and if he is, it won’t be for long.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
I agree with you to a point
but I prefer to hang my hat on the slim hope that this is the same guy who successfully came back from two shoulder surgeries to throw 182, 242, and 221 innings in consecutive years. I still think we should PLAN on doing without him, but I still HOPE he will recover and pitch well. I know it is not a good outcome to wager on, but he has beaten the odds once before.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
But things keep adding up
as well as his age.
I feel the same. I HOPE he can come back and be a great pitcher for a couple years in a row. But I don’t realistically think that will happen.
It’s not like when he comes back his mechanics are going to be fixed. He’s still an injury waiting to happen and he doesn’t have healthy joints that will postpone that much longer. Bad shoulder + Bad elbow + Bad Mechanics = Don’t plan on anything.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
Can't argue with a thing you said
but I still want to HOPE until sometime in February/March. I fear it is the only realistic chance of the 2009 team being a legitimate contender. Unless, of course we see a giant leap forward from some of the kids, an unexpectedly favorable trade, a significant bump in the payroll, or Felipe Lopez hits .385 for the whole season.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
if we are gonna hope here
can I hope that after they resign Izturis he learns how to bunt and actually HIT lefthanded?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
If they resign Izturis
I am gonna give Jeff Gilooly (or whatever the hell Tanya Harding’s boyfriend’s name is) a call and have him whack Izturis’ knee. I better not hear one time from team management how we had to go with Iz2 at SS ’cause we shot our wad on signing Lohse.
Even as dreadful as Ryan was at the dish, I would rather see him than iz2 and put the $2-3M difference into something else. Go sign some more Latin players or get a real LOOGY or something.
Of course, I would rather see a real shortstop.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
agree
i would be upset about this if he was blocking someone, but i just dont see that
now depending on the money (and i agree with lboros that there could be a lot of bitching about it), i know i was hoping for something more like 3/31.5 with a 4th year option in 12m range, or a buyout that would guarantee him 3/33; i could live with that; if it does end up 4/48, that 4th year compared to what i was saying is 15m guaranteed; that i dont like
Pujols is the greatest Cardinal in my lifetime.
by bigcardsfan5 on Sep 29, 2008 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
problem is he will be blocking several pitchers by year 3-4
if you wanna pay him more for a 2 yr deal, I would understand that. But as many posters above and below me have given names of all the prospects who will give performances equal to lohse at a fraction of the cost by the end of this deal
Exactly
Sorry, I posted my comment in reply to above without readin all the way down. The problem isn’t blocking young, cost-controlled pitchers now or even next year but in Year 3 and 4.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
How so?
Waino will be around, and Lohse. Maybe Welly, maybe Carp, but certainly not both. That would leave two open rotation spots for sure.
Why not both Welley and Carp?
Carp (if he can pitch) will be here through 2012. The Cards would be better served to sign Welley for 4 years than Lohse…if for no other reason than Welley would cost half as much.
+1
Carpenter will be collecting an eight figure check from St. Louis through 2012, as cardzfanbub points out. As will Wainwright (although he’ll likely require a bump up in pay before 2012). I also think that we could’ve pursued other FAs on the market that would not have required the same commitment in years for very similar production. Those age 32 and 33 seasons of $10M Kyle Lohse are going to be rough to watch as a fan, I fear. I hope I’m wrong…
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
damn straight on Welley
I just think he is gonna be a much better pitcher over the next 4 seasons than Lohse. That is one of the main reasons I don’t like the signing, You get a couple decent years out of Lohse, but by signing him you probably see Welley walk after next year. He is a FA after next year, right?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
And as
likely as the sun rising in the northwest tomorrow.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Sep 29, 2008 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions
The length of the contract is my problem
That’s the point. We won’t have any that are ready to contribute for a year or two, which would be my problem with a 4-year contract for Lohse. His performance will decline (much like Suppan’s has) as the contract winds down and make him absolutely not worth what we are paying for him. Rather than trying to get out in front of the market with Lohse (as we did with Pineiro), I feel that we should have explored other options that could be had for less than 4 years in duration. I’ve said all along that I’d be in favor of overpaying a bit in dollars for Lohse if we can hold down his contract’s length to 3 years.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
How in the world
can we even TRY to guess what starting pitchers will be ready in 3 years?
These guys get hurt. A lot. There is no way that a major league club can project its minor league talent to be ready at a certain point. They can HOPE, but an astute team had better get itself a lot of options ready for plans B, C, etc…..
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
Projections
Projecting established big league pitchers is not any more of sure bet. They go down to injuries all of the time, just like prospects, or, just downright regress in their performance. However, you can look at the crop that the Cards have and guess that at least one (and probably more than one) will be ready to start in three years.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I really don't foresee this to be as bad as the Pinata deal
but if it’s true, we did overpay
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Padgett & Davis, 1939
were a reserve catcher &a 35-y.o. right-handed pitcher. Besides having that .381 BA Davis went 22-16. The next year he was traded to the Dodgers w/ Medwick.
next season starting rotation
shaping up to be:
Wainwright
Wellemeyer
Lohse
Pineiro
_________ this is the big question, right? if it’s Carp, we look very solid. if it’s Boggs, etc. not sure what to make of it. Pineiro still looms as the great mistake
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 1:08 PM EDT reply actions
Agreed.....
We still have alot of question marks. I’d love to see us find a way to unload JP. If Mo can do that, he is the man. But as things stand now, I wouldn’t be surprised to see us go after another pretty decent SP.
why do you want to unload Pineiro but excited about signing Lohse?
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
Because I think Lohse is quite a bit better......
Despite what a few metrics you throw out might say. Do you really see the same SP when you look at those two? Because I don’t.
when i look at lohse i see
the exact same pitcher i saw in pineiro last year…it is a mirage based on a small sample when the large sample tells us other wise…if you buy one lottery ticket and win the lottery do you really presume that you will win it every time you buy one?
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
not as small as size as pineiro's though
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
no but the large sample is
about as close as you can get two pitchers
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
I likey this one
Wainwright
Carpenter
Wellemeyer
Lohse
Pineiro
or even better
Wainwright
Carpenter
Wellemeyer
Lohse
Boggs
But I agree with you. Once again it depends on Carpenter. Man I love watching that guy pitch.
Rogers Hornsby...WOW
I don’t care about the difference in era, that list above shows just how good Hornsby was. In the history of the St. Louis Cardinals (a very, very prestigious ballclub), Hornsby is on the top 10 batting averages 5 times for players over 100 at bats. His lowest amount of at bats to get himself onto that list is 424 abs. Only Musial, on that list, had over 250 at bats besides Hornsby. Hornsby didn’t put together good months like Felipe Lopez…he put together good half-decades. As one of our old announcers used to say, “Holy cow!”
I’m impressed.
Does anyone have a list of the top 10 Cardinal batting averages for players that qualified for the batting title?
I think I need to get a Hornsby jersey at some point
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
And
what’s great about a Hornsby jersey is that you can tell people it is for him, or maybe GC Alexander, or Bottomley, or Blades, or Southworth or really any 1920s era Cardinal you want, since it will have no name or number on it.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Sep 29, 2008 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
all right
I’ll have to sew the name on myself then
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Wow
Just look at how high on several of those career lists Albert is. One that stood out, due to some discussion I’ve seen lately, is the career home runs. If Albert keeps hitting homers at the rate he has so far and ended up with as many PA’s as Musial did, he’d be right around 750 total.
Of course, we could expect his homer rate to decline some. Well, at least for most humans it would, but, with Albert, who knows!
by ArkansasTravs on Sep 29, 2008 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
i thought the same thing
i also realized today that albert got his season OPS+ back up to 190, which is a pretty rare feat in baseball.
Runs
I was in Awe of the Runs scored list, he will end up 5th after next season if he stays on his current rate of around 100 runs/yr. He will pass: Boyer, Ozzie and Red and could possibly pass Slaugher (124 to tie him). By the end of 2010 he should pass Slaughter and Hornsby to take the 3 spot behind Brock and Musial. How good is the guy really? This is history in the making.
I can't make up my mind what I think
about this deal until I know what it does to the rest of the roster. If this is our biggest acquisition then I am bummed. Given the statements made about the payroll, it looks like this choice may very well limit improvement in other areas – such as MI, bullpen, impact bat, etc.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
heck yeah
I hope they don’t think that they need to roll out the same team with a slightly tweaked bullpen and hope for no injuries. the injuries showed this season that you need to have enough talent to get by without the injured players.
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
That said.....
If they can land a Furcal, and everybody else gets healthy, I’d say add a bullpen arm or two, and see what we have.
I hope you are right
but I think this signing may end up precluding a Furcal signing. That’s why my opinion on the deal is based on what else they do. If they salary cap themselves out of being competitive next year because they signed Lohse, then it is a bad signing. If they still improve the need areas, then I don’t really care how much they spend on Lohse.
I think this definitely means no big name/big $$ closer, though.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
I keep seeing guys say they want to sign Furcal
but with his injury history would that really be a wise move? Sure if he’s healthy he would be a big plus for us, but it would be a BIG risky gamble to sign him to a mulit-year deal and he could be hurt for 3-4 months of the season. Ask the Dodgers about Furcal’s health.
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
+1
That is why I have been advocating getting Edgar back where is much stronger in the NL.
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 29, 2008 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
And at least with Edgar the injury factor is a much lower risk.
Furcal didn’t play a single game this year from May 5th to September 24th. The Dodgers only had him for a month of the season. Do we want to risk a signing like this?
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
for some reason I thouht...
that this was Furcals only injury plagued year.
and we know Edar has also had back injuries for a while now, he game has diminished and his range is gone.
Now I wouldnt mind him too much, but I think a lot of people were dissapointed in him in Detroit (and Boston).
Plus would Edgar want to play for a team so un “traditional” as the Cardinals again, that didnt give him the proper respect?
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com
www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Sep 29, 2008 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions
you are correct
as Furcal had six straight season of 550+ ABs prior to 2008. Don’t really know the details about his back surgery other than he is back playing now.
I loved Edgar, but now I say “no mas” unless he wants to take a deal that “disrespects” him and come to ST to try to earn a job.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Was stronger
Edgar is on the downhill side of his career. He turned 33 in August and is entering his 14th season as SS. There is a very short list of players who had more than 400 PA’s while playing shortstop in their 13th career year or later. His range and offense will be below career averages again next year. IMO, he’ll be playing 3rd base or 1st base somewhere next year.
With his craptastic bat
I pity the team that has to plug him it at 1b.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
doesnt edgar
feel like one of those guys who’s age jumps a couple years at some point?
He seemed to go downhill fast and had gotten to the bigs at a very young age.
not saying its true or anything, just wild silly speculation
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com
www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Sep 29, 2008 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Furcal could
make himself a lot of money this postseason. I’ll admit, the more I think about adding Furcal, the more I like it. The problem is that his postseason may price him out of our ability to pay and if he doesn’t play well, we’ll wonder about how capable he is going forward.
i honestly think you are in my head today, HC
i was just thinking this exact same thing and was going to type it out but i was looking at his BR page first…
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
I forgot the dodgers are even in the playoffs
I think it will be the typical one series and done for the NL west (aside from last year ;-))
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com
www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Sep 29, 2008 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Back problems, people. Back problems.
Furcal has missed time to a back problem that they are having trouble gettting right and he’s already had surgery. He’d be a huge risk of being a complete bust..
He’s an awesome player. If you sign him, though, you better have a good back up plan.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Ramirez qualifies too
Nice review on floppy, but lb should include the remarkable stats put up by Manny R after going to the Dodgers: 187 AB/.396 BA/incredible 1.232 OPS. This versus a respectable Bosox line of 365/.299/.927. Despite the votes he’ll get from the live for today writers on the west coast, that still doesn’t make him MVP.
rather see him win it than Howard
but it should be albert’s award this year.
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
i dont want howard to win it either
with a .250/.339/.590 line but at least he is a local boy born in STL and went to school in Springfield…and he didnt QUIT on his team…
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
Skip Schumacher got a mention on LA morning radio today
KROQ had a segment called “Ask a tattooist.” When the hosts of the show asked the guy how popular sports team logos were as tattoos, the guest misunderstood and thought they were asking if athletes ever come in for tattoos.
“Let’s see. I did a tattoo for Skip Schumacher not too long ago. He’s from Arizona and plays for St. Louis or something.” /paraphrase
Sadly, he didn’t mention what the tattoo was. Thankfully, he also didn’t mention what part of the body it was on.
defy, cards, defy. hey logic --- you suck.
(ted to carla)
can you find my tattoo?
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
Ok, skip do you like Kermit the frog...?
I want a skull
ok, well I can draw Kermit the frog…
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com
www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Sep 29, 2008 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Lohse
I’m going to type this as I look up the information…so sorry if this doesn’t sound like very sound research…here’s my premise.
I wanted to take a look at Lohse’s stats this year, but I want to see what it looks like if the best month and worst month are taken out. Guys get on hot streaks and cold streaks. I want to see what it looks like in an average month.
Overall stats
15-6 W/L, 3.78 ERA (3.92 FIP), 200 IP, 211 H, 119 K:49 BB, 18 HR, 1.300 WHIP
March/April (6 starts)
3-0, 2.36 (3.08), 34 1/3, 32, 14:8, 0, 1.165
May (6 starts)
2-2, 5.66 (4.06), 35, 41, 18:9, 3, 1.429
June (6 starts)
5-0, 3.00 (4.39), 36, 35, 18:9, 4, 1.278
July (5 starts)
2-1, 3.71 (4.35), 34, 37, 22:6, 5, 1.265
August (6 starts)
1-3, 4.66 (3.96), 36 2/3, 40, 27:10, 4, 1.364
September/October (4 starts)
2-0, 3.00 (3.49), 24, 26, 20:7, 2, 1.375
Obviously, his worst month was May. That one gets eliminated. I will run the numbers thrice, though. One time taking out the March/April month, once taking out June, and once taking out July. I think those three months are both pretty darn close to his best.
Without March/April/May:
10-4, 3.65 (4.10), 130 2/3, 138, 87, 32:15, 1.301
Without May/June:
8-4, 3.49 (3.74), 129, 135, 83, 31:11, 1.287
Without May/July:
11-3, 3.30 (3.76), 131, 133, 79, 34, 10, 1.275
The last two there (minus May and either June/July are pretty similar, whearas the other one is al ittle bit worse, I believe.
If we see the Kyle Lohse of a 3.75ish FIP and a 1.280ish WHIP over the next few years, I believe this will be a good move. If we see the 4.10ish FIP and a 1.3ish WHIP over the next few years, I believe this will be an average (at best) move by the Cardinals Front Office.
he's had exactly 1 year
w/ a 3.75 ish FIP — this year (3.89). No other year was less than 4.34. And he’s approaching his age 30-33 seasons. Which one are you betting on?
I was...
uhh…trying to be the hopeful optimist now that the new season will be upon us in 6 months?
Ah, who am I kidding…at least it’s an average of 10 a year or so instead of 12-15.
it's amazing, isn't it,
that Strauss’ prediction that it would be a $48 M contract makes us say, “Gee, that’s not so bad” now that it’s only (?) $41 M? Coulda been worse! Talk about setting low expectations!
WGN in Indianapolis
ESPN2 has the game blacked out in Indianapolis, and WGN (not HD) has it. Maybe someday I will understand the MLB blackout rules.
it isn't possible
just save yourself from the future aneurysm
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Amen Brother
What is bizare to me is that Indy is not a “baseball market”, yet we get random Reds, Cubs, Sox, and Cards games blacked out – even when paying for MLB Extra Innings. Had a Cards vs Cubs game on ESPN blacked out last season – why would they do that in Indy?
Here's the tv territory/blackout map
It’s ridiculous btw.
Btw, not sure why you’d get Cards games blacked out. Looks like Indy(and most of Indiana) is Cubs, White Sox, Reds territory.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
heres what i dont get...
everyone (used loosely) is so excited about Lohse but hates Pinata when they are pretty close to the same pitcher…
age: KL: 29 JP:30
ERA: KL: 4.67 JP: 4.55
ERA+: KL: 97 JP: 95
k/9: KL: 5.63 JP: 5.79
GP: KL: 251 JP:253
personally they i think they are both league average pitchers that probably make too much money when we have younger player that will be able to do the same thing next year and beyond…either way you cant really dislike one and love the other…
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
The 2004 squad
Had basically 5 league average starters and a kick ass offense. Getting a middle infielder with pop, that could very well be the ’09 club, if the “average” starting pitchers stay healthy.
It’s not a bad way to build a ball club.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
I think that is a good recipe
for winning a lot of regular season games, but it doesn’t hold up well in the playoffs. I would rather have three fairly studly guys at the top and make do in the other two spots.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
I go under the assumption
that Lohse was improved by Duncan’s pitch to contact philosophy. if he pitches like he did this year, we’re fine. if he goes back to his old self, holy crap
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Wasn't that the same assumption for Piniero too?
That Duncan saw him tipping his pitches and after that “revelation,” Piniero was really a good pitcher? At least a pitcher that warranted a couple year deal?
by Ray Lankford on Sep 29, 2008 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, but didnt we sign Piniero
after only a couple months worth of games vrs Loshe’s year?
Maybe im wrong fuzzy memory
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com
www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Sep 29, 2008 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
You guys are right
The sample size is the caveat to my comments. However, when you have several years worth of MLB stats for a player and one season is a statistical outlier, doesn’t it make more sense to predict that the actual performance going forward will be closer to the career average, as opposed to the one good season? Or in Pineiro’s case, the one good month?
by Ray Lankford on Sep 29, 2008 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions
those aren't correct numbers
those are career numbers for both. while piniero started off his career above league average and has regressed, lohse has done the opposite, while never being quite as bad as joel has
how are they not correct?
just because you disagree with my argument doesn’t mean the numbers are incorrect…and btw, Joel is Loshe 5th best comp thru this season…so i am not the only one who thinks this…
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
Lohse's numbers haven't steadily increased
If you chart out Lohse’s career numbers, it would be generally a flat line with a slight increase and then a spike last year. Why do people think he’s going to continue to have an ERA nearly a full run lower than his career average? Why are we paying him as if he will continue to pitch as effectively as he did this year?
by Ray Lankford on Sep 29, 2008 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions
OK
So I just saw the reported terms as being 4 / $41 Mill. Not as terrible as Silva’s deal, but a 4 year investment on a league average pitcher is not a winning bet — his stats have no where to go but down. We just saw his best season. Think we’ll see it again? I don’t.
by Ray Lankford on Sep 29, 2008 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Blocking
I hope he is blocking someone because if that is true we may have more than 5 arms that are capable of pitching. YOU CAN NEVER HAVE ENOUGH STARTING PITCHING.
anybody notice that detroit will apparently decline renteria's option?
what effect this has on arbitration/draft picks is a mystery to me, i barely understand this stuff. could the cards be thinking about bringing him back? don’t know if i would like that.
[end wild speculation]
I really don't think the team would be interested.....
I still bet some of management is upset with how he left. Same thing, only the opposite with Eckstein, I doubt he was happy with how he was let go.
They have till 5 days after the World Series
To offer Edgar arbitration or not. I don’t think they will offer him cause they are trying to cut payroll. I would love to see him back in STL.
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 29, 2008 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
They wont offer
if they offer him arb and he accepts any arbitrator in his right mind would award him the value of his option, thus negating any reason for not picking it up. They wont risk it.
To answer your question
If Detroit does not offer arbitration, there is no draft pick compensation. Detroit gets no picks and the signing team loses no picks.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
only if we wait till after 1 Dec to sign him
there’s always fine print ;)
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
My post at Cards Talk
Picklefork posted this on Cards talk already. Here is what I put on it over there:
Imagine the lineup:
Rasmus CF-RF
Lopez 2B
Pujols 1B
Ludwick LF
Glaus 3B
Ankiel RF-CF
Renteria SS
Pitcher (you know TLR will still do this)
Molina C
Bench: Miles MIF, Kennedy MIF, Mather OF, Barton/Schumaker OF, LaRue/Anderson C
Defensively that is a downgrade at the MIF since Lopez, Miles and Renteria aren’t the best (even though Renteria was a gold glover not too long ago) but otherwise that is an upgrade.
probably will have Kennedy as defensive replacement too
I just thought of something, maybe they are grooming Kennedy to be the next Miles…
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
and half the rest of the team too
Lopez
Ryan
Kennedy
am I forgetting anyone?
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
according to Strauss
they’re going to trade Kennedy. Plus he is asking for a trade (doubt he enjoys playing right field). And, honestly I don’t expect him to be on the roster next year.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
Assuming healthy.....
Where are Duncan, Barton/Skip, Bardon, and Freese? All in AAA?
I don’t mind that, but I’d rather find another option at SS. Preferably, a guy like Furcal, and I’d hit him leadoff, and let Rasmus start the year hitting 9th, in case he struggles.
I also don’t think AK will be here next year.
Others
I don’t think Duncan is better then Rasmus or Ankiel, so he loses out on one of the LH Power slots, Lud and Mather are the best of the RH OFs so they get 2 slots, and the OBP type OFs of Skip and Barton only have 1 slot to fill, the other probably won’t be on the team or will be in AAA. I expect Duncan to be traded or released, Skip to be traded, Barton to make the team or be in AAA, Barden I would like to see given a chance but I doubt it happens, same with Freese, both are also trade bait or good backups in AAA if the need arises.
duncan and schumaker are out of options
and the odds of any of them clearing waivers is miniscule. They have to make the team, be traded, or be given away. Mather might also fall into that group.
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
if we lose Albert
(Wait a second while I bite my tongue)
Who gets first base? Duncan or Phelps or….?
- Y.2.2
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Getting ahead of the market
I think the reasons the Cardinals are signing Lohse so early is because I think they are expecting an overpriced Free Agent market. A lot of teams have money coming off the book and looking to spend money this off season. Which is only going to drive prices up on starting pitching.
I think they gauged the market before hand and going to set the market price. All further pitching contracts given out will be based against what Lohse got this year.
I am surprised Lohse is not going to the FA market. Boras almost always goes to market. I guess since he got screwed over last year he doesn’t trust Boras this year.
I kind of had a feeling that this would be the case
why else would they sign him right now?
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Contract Math
I found this part of Goold’s article interesting.
Multiple sources indicated that the deal could be similar to the four-year, $48 million contract signed by Carlos Silva with Seattle last winter, and that the average annual value of Lohse’s deal will exceed $10 million.
One end has the contract exceeding $10 million average to a top end similar to Silva 4 yr/$48 mm (or $12 mm average). A 3 yr/$33 mm contract fits into both statements. The contract acually could be front loaded to make up for Lohse’s 2008 contract. Either way let’s hope a club option is the only way a fourth year is added onto the contract.
I’m out of state. Anyone have a suggestion on how to hear the press conference live on the internet?
try
KFNS.com
Team1380.net
maybe even KTRS.com
if it isn’t on any of those stations, then it isn’t on the radio.
NOW do you see why I was so upset they didn't trade Lohse
look what happens when you give them matches! They go off an set fire to $50 M on an average pitcher.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 29, 2008 3:17 PM EDT reply actions
I have to agree with HL
I really feel this contract is going to bite this team in the ass a lot quicker than we all hope. Kyle was pitching for his contract this season. Once he sees the money in his bank account now I fully expect to see the “old” Kyle Lohse appear next year and beyond. Lets pray we can get at least two decent years out of him.
To be honest I would have rather re-signed Looper on a 2 year deal for a lot less.
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
I'm with ya on rather signing Looper for low money
but I don’t think Lohse is just going to revert all the sudden
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I hope not but something tells me he had his career year this year
which he was also pitching for a big contract. I want to try and be positive about this signing, but I look at his career numbers and his age and it’s really tough to put on a happy face. If I would predict I would say in 2009 he will end up with 12-13 wins and a era of 4.50+. Which I guess is decent and could land him in the top 20 in the NL in wins again…I guess we could be happy with that. Keeping my fingers crossed with this…..
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
I would think this was his career year
the big question is, if he has 4 more years just like this is it worth 12M a year? I think so. I do not think he will have more than one more year like this.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
if he was all about the money
why would he sign now with us?
Infact they made it sound like he really wanted to be here (the anti-weaver).
not saying he wasnt pitching for money, buts its interesting he didnt go to the market
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com
www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Sep 29, 2008 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh its all a big ruse
There’s no way Boras will let him sign right now before he can hit the market and drive the price way up.
At least that’s what I’ve been told. And I know a certain former poster…………..who is……………probably pretty happy…..today.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
But but but
Boras never ever under any circumstances listens to his clients’ wishes!!!
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist
Average pitcher(s)
Unfortunately $50 M is the going rate for an average pitcher.
only b/c
1 team is willing to do it. Carlos Silva worth 4 and $48 to you? Not to me or to about 29 GMs. Instead, one numbskull gives him this contract and people say — “an average pitcher’s worth $50M!” It’s not good baseball to give average pitchers entering their decline phase 4 years and $50 M. Just b/c one other idiot would’ve done it doesn’t mean the Cards should.
Got to agree
If this is a 4 year contract, then its a bad contract. Aparently out lession from Carp’s extension was you just need to sign more high risk contracts until one works out.
Why is our team so affraid at letting young pitchers have a chance?
since the Astros didn't finish their season
I think we should get 3rd place
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 3:35 PM EDT reply actions
yes on paper we still get the benefits
but in my mind, if they can’t finish the season, then they don’t get to finish ahead of us
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
some levity--after all, the name of today's post is "fun again"
just thought i’d provide a laugh in the midst of the possible doom and gloom scenario we could or could not be looking at w/ respect to lohse.
can’t believe i missed this onion article: struggling mets combine to form carlos voltron
i’ve spent so much time at VEB lately that i have neglected the onion and the brushback. ah well.
was hoping for this, actually
- Y.2.2
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Lohse, Lopez
It seems if we were to come to a consensus here that a three year contract at an average value of, say, $11M/yr with or without an option year would be “acceptable” for Lohse. When I saw the 3yr/$28M value floated on the PD board, I was very happy. When I saw the 4/48 number (Silva) being tossed about, very much less so. Overall, I was pleased w/ Lohse’s performance this year, we do need a steady hand, but that fourth guaranteed year is just scary.
As for Lopez, as lb posited, his batting performance with the club this year may not have been “just a regression (progression?) to the mean” as so many argued on here during the season. IF we knew he could stay a .280-.300 hitter with occasional pop, I think he might be our best bet at 2B without breaking the bank/farm on someone. His glove is not the best, but he appeared a bit more comfortable/less damaging at 2B than elsewhere.
Lopez vs Kennedy and Izturis...
Kennedy, who everybody hates and wants released, also had a remarkably good Sept. Did he suddenly become another Rogers Hornsby, like Felipe Lopez apparently has? Or is it just a fluke month? Izturis, too, hit .333 in the month.
Judging someone’s batting skills over a month instead of over a whole season or career is not a wise thing.
Felipe Lopez - next year's Joel Pineiro
FWIW...
it was 2 months and 156 AB’s for Floppy vs. 1 mo. and 50 AB’s for Kennedy. In August AK put up his usual no power no OBP month of .304/.306/.326. It can’t be easy to bat .304 and OPS .632 – that’s a special skill set in itself.
Recently in conversation I've been using "Kennedy" in place of "bloop hit" or texas leaguer
He Kennedy-ed the shit out of that ball.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist
ballgame starting
On ESPN2
(This is the season that never ends… it goes on and on my friend…)
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
As much as I want to watch the Sox/Tigers game
I cannot sit through The Jamie Foxx show waiting for it to stop raining.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
it's going now
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
yeah, just came on
have no idea why they waited until first pitch to switch over. Like I needed to see the first 10 minutes of that horrible show.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
maybe fsnmw?
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
not baseball related but...
http://www.firstcoastnews.com/news/local/news-article.aspx?storyid=119974&catid=3&provider=email
14 gunshots, the guy is lucky to be alive, but to have his NFL career cut short is still saddening
so uh
it’s 5 min. past 4:30… any announcing going on?
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 5:35 PM EDT reply actions
FSN mw
right now
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
with a baby too.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
thanks to all
Including a lengthy one for Boras.
Four year deal? That’s all the info we get?
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
sez
Mo: age + durability + fit with team
KLo: comfortable, LaDunc confident in him
baby: Where is my dad. I signed a bigger contract with him.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Kyle
The fans and Albert snag another one. We’re just that good. It sounds like he pushed for a deal, fairly early.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Ha!
Mr. Dewitt, Mr. Boras, and Mo…
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com
www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
I can't hear some of these questions
Answers don’t make sense. Anyone shed some light on ’em?
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
it's over and they didn't say how much the contract is for?
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2008 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
not surprising
usually that stuff gets reported in the paper a little later.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
Jim Hayes
just said “somewhere around $40 million we’re not gonna get an exact number”
Lohse nodded…
Ryan Howard: one of the most Statistically Outstanding players of all time
by RunninRedbird on Sep 29, 2008 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
hopefully that means closer to 40 than 50
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Sep 29, 2008 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
tell us if there's an eyebrow twitch
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
see, The Cat wanted an eyebrow twitch too
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
4 years and $10
Isn’t to bad… Hopefully there is some incentives to reach that final number. But I doubt it.
speaking of incentives
Didn’t he have like $500,000 if he pitched 200 innings this year? I just noticed that he pitched exactly 200 innings this year.
Pat also called him the "$40 million dollar man..."
Ryan Howard: one of the most Statistically Outstanding players of all time
by RunninRedbird on Sep 29, 2008 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions
40 = 49.9999999999
After all, it’s still not 50!
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
I dont think Mo
does jokes
hes like the cardinals Rex Banner
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com
www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
I don't think Mo got that joke
“well that’s his problem”
Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.
+1
He seemed a little annoyed from that
Ryan Howard: one of the most Statistically Outstanding players of all time
by RunninRedbird on Sep 29, 2008 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I hope this results in some kind of public fued
over nothing.
hilarity ensues
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com
www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Sep 29, 2008 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
mention of Boggs as viable backup?
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Well crap
There they go again, getting my hopes up about Chris Carpenter again…
defy, cards, defy. hey logic --- you suck.
Exactly what I was thinking
“non-surgical route this offseason” and “looks good to be ready at the start of the ST” sounds too good to be true
Ryan Howard: one of the most Statistically Outstanding players of all time
by RunninRedbird on Sep 29, 2008 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Wait
Where have I heard this before? . . . . “Looks good” . . . “ready at the start of spring training” . . . . OH YEAH, it was Matt Clement. How many games did he pitch for us? None? Gotcha. Play with the language slightly and you can make that quote apply to Mulder, Carpenter and Wainwright — “the rehab is going well and they will be ready to come back on X date” Never happens.
Cynical? Yes I am.
by Ray Lankford on Sep 29, 2008 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Felipe Lopez and the Amazing BAbip
I’ve never done this before, but I think I did it correctly. Forgive me if I’m wrong. I wanted to adjust Felipe Lopez’s numbers by substituting his BAbips. I altered Lopez’s numbers in Washington by recalculating his slash lines and hits/2B/3B/HRs based on the different BAbip. I used his actual 2008 DC BAbip, then inserted his 08 StL BAbip and lastly his Career BAbip. I hope that makes sense. The only variable here is BAbip.
Methodology:
I subtracted Strikeouts from At Bats to get the number of at-bats where Lopez actually hit the ball. Then I multiplied that by the corresponding BAbip to get his estimated number of hits. I added on extra base hits at the same rate he had previously accumulated them. 20 of his 76 hits in DC were doubles, for 26% so I added 26% of the added hits as doubles. Also, I felt comfortable alternating his BAbip’s because his line drive rates were fairly close (DC: 18, StL: 17 and Career: 19%) and this is just a thumbnail sketch.
While in Washington with 325 at bats
- .275 DC BAbip in DC- .234/.302/.314 with 76 hits / 20 doubles / 0 triples / 2 hr
- .452 StL BAbip in DC- .376/.425/.501 with 122 / 32 / 0 / 3
- .312 Career in DC .260/.322/.349 with 85 / 22 / 0 / 2
In StL with 156 at bats
- .452 StL BAbip in StL- .385/.426/.538 with 60 / 8 / 2 / 4
- .275 DC Babip in StL- .226/.272/.318 with 35 / 5 / 1 / 1
- .312 Career in StL .256/.300/.327 with 40 / 5 / 1 / 1
Just replacing the BAbips, his first half in Washington would have probably gotten him another All-Star appearance and the remaining 150 at bats in St. Louis would have made us long for Adam Kennedy.
Also, because using the Career BAbip in both sets of data gets roughly equivalent performance it appears that his huge spike in average could have been a regression (progression) to the mean broken coincidentally by his release from the Nationals and signing with the Cards (He actually progressed beyond the mean with a .328 BAbip compared to his career .312 which would help explain his .283 season average vs the Career BAbip calculation ~.260). I may not know much, but do know I’m a lot less inclined to advocate the re-signing of Felipe Lopez now.
Moneyball just broke my rose colored glasses.
Good Work
I think when you factor in his defense than it looks even worst to sign him
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 29, 2008 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions
i think you just summarized my problem with signing him
if we were to ship off AK somehow and replace miles with lopez i think i’d be ok with that. but he should never play anything other than 2nd
I think Strauss Just Said
4 yr/ 41 million. Full no trade clause.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
Details
Pitcher Kyle Lohse and the St. Louis Cardinals agreed Monday to a $41 million, four-year contract.
Lohse was 15-6 with a 3.78 ERA this season and led the staff with 200 innings. He agreed to a $4.25 million, one-year contract on March 14.
His new deal contract calls for a $1.25 million signing bonus and salaries of $7,125,000 next year, $8,875,000 in 2009 and $11,875,000 in each of the final two seasons. He also gets a full no-trade clause.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
Wow!
full no-trade clause for a #3/#4 starter? and there it is — an escalating backloaded contract. I will say, however, that less than $12 M is better than the $14 or so I was afraid of. I’m glad Strauss was wrong on the money but I’d still have rather seen a 2 or 3 year deal for more $ per year.
i am going to be sick
4 guaranteed years and a full no trade….blah!
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
I was just about to say something but not quite as pointed
There are ways around no-trade clauses. You probably don’t get full-value in that situation, but if you’re looking to trade a guy like that then he’s probably not at his highest trade value anyway.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
Lohse can waive the no-trade for a fee
Lohse always has the option to waive the no trade for some pocket money, say another $1,000,000. The clause gives him some protection to being shipped to a place he’d rather not go, say NYC. Boras negotiated a clause into this year’s contract that paid him $500k if he was traded during the season.
OK, that's not TOO bad.
Won’t be crippling this year or next, especially if the signing bonus counts towards 2008 and not 2009 salary. It’s a full Adam Kennedy less per year than I was afraid it would be, at least the first two years.
Hate the no trade clause, though.
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
08..
if you add the 1.25+4.25+.5 for this year you get an 08 salary of 6M, then 09:$7.125M, 10:$8.875M, 11:$11.875M, 12:$11.875M, it works to a very nice progression, I assume that is the reason for the signing bonus, and I am not sure if it wouldn’t count in his 08 salary for any Arbitration cases, though I think those only go back like 3 years anyway.
I bet a decent reason for the NTC from Lohse's perspective is Duncan/LaRussa
By the end of the contract they won’t be here so who knows…
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist
Good for 2009 $$; Bad for 2012 Budget
The low 2009 salary leaves money available for other signings. I guess we’ll worry about paying that much to a league average player in Oct 2011. Who knows how much the league average salaries for starting pitchers will be in 2012.
Guess it could've been worse
I just agree with HC wanting to give him more $ for 2 or 3 years as opposed to a 4 year backloaded contract.
Ryan Howard: one of the most Statistically Outstanding players of all time
by RunninRedbird on Sep 29, 2008 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
if they can find a way to trade him after 2010
then I don’t really hate that contract
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
This deal is worse than my worst nightmare
What a complete disaster… Mo must not be very smart.
9=8
by JI on Sep 29, 2008 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Here is to 4 years
of Lohse doing his best Gibby/Dizzy/Carp 04-06 impersonation!
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
Sox/Tigers tied 1-1, top 6
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
Raburn just hit a chopper in front of the plate
Floyd bobbled it and then threw the ball into right field scoring Cabrera.
Tigers up 2-1.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
GOB give Tigers a PFP error
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
true, but I'm sure they would trade this one for one less a couple of years ago.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
we don't untuck. the GOB may like us more.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Why a back loaded contact is good
Lets say we flipped the contract so he got paid
$11,875,000 the first two years than 8,875,000 than $7,125,000. The Cardinals would lose roughly $700k by doing this. Let me explain.
If they simply put the money in an account that gained roughly 8% compounded over a year. So instead of paying the $4.75million first but instead in the back they put the money in the account. They don’t put it all in at first either they pay in the account over a 12 month period. About $395,833 a month. Which comes out to $4,928,095 roughly. Now if they just leave that money in the account than add the $3.00 million broke up over 12 months for the next year they end up with $8,449,606 minus the $7.75 million they started with nets a gain around $700k.
I hope this makes sense to someone.
I know what you're saying
but I don’t think the benefit of interest is that substantial. First, I am not an accountant, but I seriously doubt that there is any way they could get an 8% interest rate. That is super high. Especially with the current state of the economy… You could argue that a backloaded contract is good because odds are today’s $12M is worth more than $12M will be 3 years from now due to inflation etc. However, it also will make him harder to trade if he ever lets us trade him. The fact that this contract is backloaded is not the end of the world, but I wouldn’t say it’s a good thing either.
Piñata - something children beat relentlessly with bats. Piñeiro - .858 OPS against. Some call it irony; I call it destiny.
by thegodfather on Sep 29, 2008 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions
you're arguing about interest
the point I was making had nothing to do w/ that but rather the value that Lohse provides to the team. He gets progressively more expensive as his value to the team gets lower. By the time Lohse is receiving $12 M from the team, he’s actually worth $4 – 5 M. The team gets a little extra benefit in the beginning but gets stuck w/ a player they can’t trade b/c he’s not earning his keep later on.
Yes they can trade him in three years
They just have to eat the money, which you’d rather do in 4 years than next year.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist
For some reason the comment didn't post
….they just have to eat the money, which they’d rather do in 4 years rather than next.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist
My point
Was that it is always better to pay later than now. He might not be worth $12 million in 4 years but he will be worth more than $7 mil next year. You have to look at the overall contract not just year to year. The savings you might save by back dating might be enough to sign another player.
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 29, 2008 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Someone needs to stop Hawk Harrelson right now
He’s lost it.
“There’s not a better shortstop in the American League right now than Juan Uribe. And from watching him play 3rd, there might not be a better third baseman in the American League either. Plays a pretty good 2nd base too.”
And that’s a direct qoute.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
did he just have an aneurysm?
then again, he is talking about the AL. Is my brain cramping, is there a great SS in the AL anymore?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
guess it depends on if you're talking about defense or offense
But I would probably rather have Young, Perralta, Jeter, O. Cabrera (who just so happens to be on the White Sox), Lowrie, and a few more.
Uribe can hit for power and could be good with the glove, but he makes Felipe Lopez look like he’s the most focused player in baseball. But, when he’s focused he’s goes all out. He just daydreams way too much.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
Why couldn't I think of Young, Perralta, and Caberera
I purposely ignored Jeter. I agree with you on the whole bunch though.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Sox threatening
Wise just stole 2nd with 0 outs. Bottom 6. And Freddy Garcia seems to have hurt his neck.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
whoa, so the Twins are only giving it another 2 hours?
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
what?
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
they're leaving for the airport at 8, no matter what
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
What, are they gonna forfeit tomorrow?
What’s the friggin rush?
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
they could always connect at Chicago *shrugs*
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
okay, now i'm confused
I was under the impression they were already in Chicago. Where are they headed to if they’re in Minneapolis? If they’re headed to Tampa, their first game isn’t until Thursday.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
you got me
I was as surprised as you. They’ve been saying they’re watching in MN, I think. It could very well be that they’re connecting in Chicago, and if there’s no game they’ll head to Tampa, and if there is, they’ll get a good night’s sleep.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I think they're GOING to Chicago no matter what
if the Tigers win, they’ll just fly back home tomorrow morning. It’s only like an hour or so flight.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
2 wild pitches in a row!!!
1st gets Wise to 3rd. 2nd score him.
All tied up a 2!
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
The fix is in!
run downtown and print it!
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 29, 2008 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't tell Hawk
he’s convinced there’s an unpire conspiracy against the Sox.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
....I'm starting to buy the conspiracy now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
ANOTHER wild pitch
Dye to 2nd.
Tigers aren’t even in the World Series and their pitchers are folding like usual.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
Bases juiced
Sox have a run in on 0 hits with the bases now loaded and 2 outs.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
and Hardcore's favorite guy is up.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
SLAM
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
GRAND SLAM
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Hawk blew his voice out
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
how can some one so small hit the ball so far?
somebody get that boy a slice of the windy city’s finest.
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
This is interesting...
How would you feel about this if you were Ned Yost?
Ryan Howard: one of the most Statistically Outstanding players of all time
as i understood it
it was the owner who fired yost against the advice of Melvin
so this just fits perfectly with that
The owner said
he had nothing to do with it.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 29, 2008 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions
bonus baseball tomorrow
(….some people started playing it not knowing what it was, and they’ll keep playing it forever just because….)
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
and because the Sox and Tigers had to play today
and the Tigers lost…Kansas City doesn’t finish in last place this year.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
Seattle
Seattle is the more depressing one, they spent a lot this offseason to end with one of the worst records in baseball:
Wash 59, Seattle 61, SD 63, Pitt 67, Balt 68, San Fran 72, Col/Det/Cincy 74, KC/Oak 75 those are your lowest 10 (11) win totals for the 2008 season.
To think Lincecum won 18 of SF 72 games, where would they be without him?
Seattle sports period is depressing
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist
I still can't believe they lost the SuperSonics.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
Can we find some middle ground on the Lohse contract?
It’s not the worst deal ever nor is it the best deal ever. It’s not a discount but it is arguably in line with his value over a replacement level player. His VORP this year was ~40 (he hit his 90%) and that’s not something we should project moving forward but it is useful to note that it will probably raise his PECOTA a tick since his peripherals were relatively strong.
So making a mental adjustmant to the PECOTA forecast over the next 4 years and it’s not hard to see him being a slight value for the club in years 1 & 2 while a slight weight on the club in years 3 & 4. Remember that 1 win over replacement = $4M-ish on the market. So he needs to be worth just 2 wins over replacement (around league average) during years 1&2 and about 3 wins over replacement during years 3&4. Over the life of the contract he needs to accumulate around 10 wins above replacement level to justifiy the $$$. That’s not that hard to envision.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals get a pitcher that consistently takes the ball every 5th day. He’s not terribly old, has no injury history and didn’t break the bank. This probably precludes a Burnett or Sabbathia signing but there were going to be a lot of teams vying for their services. Lohse doesn’t block any prospect next year and Pineiro’s gone after that so there are ways to work in youngsters who perform well. In a perfect world, the Cardinals may have gone for slightly more money over fewer years but players don’t like the uncertainty of moving. (Assuming true talent level of Lohse = 4.50FIP and replacement level = 5.50 he’s a 2 win player — a rather conservative estimate).
The no trade clause would be worrisome except the only trade of veterans this team has a history of making are one’s who have pissed off the manager. I wish it wasn’t in there but o well.
Fair Evaluation
I think it was a pretty fair deal that offers some stability to our pitching staff. His contract will be judged against what other FA starting pitchers get in the off season.
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 29, 2008 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions
If its 41M and not 48M its easier to live with.
I still would rather the money go towards position players but clearly I am not with the majority on this. I just hope this means we are done looking for FA starting pitching at this point. What the team needs now is two MIFs and a LOOGY.
How bout
Will Ohman
Edgar Renteria
Kelly Johnson
All do able in my book
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 29, 2008 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Edgar post All Star Break
.296 avg
.343 ob%
.469 slg%
.812 OPS
Telling me that wouldn’t be awfully sexy
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 29, 2008 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Very nice evaluation, robot
My feelings exactly. I’d rather it have been 3 yrs, 33 mil, but I’d be willing to bet Lohse/Boras pushed for the fourth year and it was not negotiable.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
everything's negotiable
but I agree that it probably wasn’t realistic, nor was Mo telling them to take a hike and that we’d find someone just as good for 3 years. It would’ve been a gamble.
The Lohse signing does preclude (hopefully) a Jon Garland signing which likely would’ve been bigger and worse. That’s good news. $41 M is better than $48 M and is worth about 2 WARP over the life — maybe 1 1/2 w/ salary escalation. He does provide (or always has provided) steady innings over his career. And he probably figures to earn his money over the first 3 years, thus making the last year the most concerning. At $11.75 M, it could be worse and, by year 4, Carp’s contract will come off the books so we actually gain in the “bad contract” category by more than $4 M. Year 3 could be a real problem if Carp never returns fully healthy and Lohse stinks — that’ll be about $28 M in pitchers down the drain. Suppan produced a just-below-average ERA+ in year 3 following his age 29 year so, if Lohse can produce a 97 ERA+, we’ll be ok.
I said earlier
Not as good as I hoped…not as bad as I feared.
I think I would rather have this than Lowe at 3/45 (but don’t put that in ink just pencil I may change my mind)
The think I wonder about is if we can see this as a move because of Carps future? Is this because of him or because of injuries to Garcia et al?
Site monitors
thanks for siting me in my error of ways. I wasnt trying to plagarize Jason stark, why I linked it. I was unaware as I did not read the guidlenes that I needed to add my own comentary i was just simply trying to post part of a article as there was much more to it on ap.
Sorry for any headaches I may have cauzed it was unententional.
I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punch and judy hitter-major league 2
world series
i like the brewers what compares to gallardo, sabathia, sheets thru the playoffs
thats one tough playoff staff…unless the bullpen tries to mimic the cards
Harden, Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
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