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what price matt cain?

still out on the road. i have to put on a suit today, which makes it a bad day.

i agree w/ bernie --- the cards’ september fade is more saddening than infuriating. they’ve won only 6 games this month; unless they win at least 4 of the last 6, they will become the first cardinal team since 1932 to win fewer than 10 games in september.

new subject: it has been making the rounds for a while that the giants might be willing to part with matt cain this off-season for the right slugger --- and the cardinals have some sluggers they can consider dealing. cain is a 24-year-old cost-controlled pitcher who’s firmly established as a good big-league starter. he becomes arb-eligible this winter, which means he’s still 3 years away from free agency. what’s a fair price for him?

according to the Day by Day Database, cain ranks 21st in aggregate era from 2006-08 (minimum 500 innings) with a 3.86 mark; his FIPs have been rock-solid steady, ranging between 3.78 and 3.96 each year. cain also ranks 11th in strikeouts per 9 innings and 9th in strikeouts, and opponents have batted .236 against him during that span and slugged just .379. his won-loss record is bad, but so what; without getting too technical about it, he has averaged about 4 wins above replacement for each of the last 3 years ---- a better showing than felix hernandez, ervin santana, jered weaver, chad billingsley, and other pitchers of his age cohort, and just a tick behind scott kazmir and cole hamels. his performance has been roughly equivalent to that of adam wainwright (as a starter); his health record is clean.

now for some caveats. first, cain has benefited greatly from the san francisco ballpark, where his career era is 3.42; on the road his career era is 4.17. (it should be noted, however, that this split has all but vanished the last 2 seasons.) second, he has thrown a large number of innings (about 650) at a very young age, ie in his early 20s. that puts him into a high-risk category for injury and / or early burnout. perhaps related to this, his velocity has been down a bit this year, from an average of 93 mph in 2006-07 to 92 mph this season. but in spite of the slight loss of speed, cain has recorded more swinging strikes this year than in the previous 2.

pitchers like this don’t get dealt very often; there’s not much of a track record. the closest one i can think of off the top o me head is josh beckett, who was 1 year older than cain is now and 1 year closer to free agency when he got dealt after the 2005 season. he fetched two premium prospects, anibal sanchez and hanley ramirez --- the equivalent of rasmus and todd --- plus a bunch of payroll relief (ie mike lowell, who was considered a god-awful waste of dollars at the time of the trade). wonder what the reaction would be if the cards dealt rasmus+todd for cain? the move would be bold, that’s for sure. i think there is a case to be made for it, to wit: the cards would be trading from their two greatest organizational surplusses (outfielders and right-handed mid-rotation starters) to get a commodity the farm system cannot duplicate: an established young pitcher w/ front-of-rotation potential. daryl jones would step into the cf-of-the-future role, mortensen and boggs would still be around to ease the loss of todd . . . . sounds kind of cool on paper, no? but i’m not sure how i would react if the deal actually went down. last winter the mariners made a very similar trade to the one i’m describing here, ie adam jones and others for erik bedard; disastrous trade, one that sets the mariner franchise back several years. for that matter, the mulder deal wasn’t too far off; the cards got him 2 years out from free agency and had to give up their top young pitcher (haren) and top young hitter (daric barton).

the whole exercise is probably academic, because the giants supposedly aren’t looking for potential; they’re looking for an established slugger. prince fielder’s name has been tossed around (he’s arb eligible this year, and unhappy in milwaukee). so let’s get back to where this discussion began: let’s make it ryan ludwick for cain. anyone care to do that? i’d do it in a second, which means the giants probably wouldn’t. on paper, it’s a fairly even trade. ludwick has been about as valuable as cain this year (worth about 5 wins) and is under control for the same number of years (3). the giants would probably argue that cain still hasn’t hit his peak, whereas ludwick exceeded his in 2008 . . . . ok then --- ankiel for cain? i doubt that’d get it done either; ankiel does have 40-homer power, but he can’t stay healthy and is only a year from free agency.

i do wonder, though, if the giants could be enticed by a package of (let’s just say) ludwick and david freese in exchange for cain plus a prospect of some kind. san francisco would potentially gain two everyday players for the next several years, both power bats, while the cards would upgrade their rotation for the next 3 years. they’d find another right fielder within their deep pool of outfield talent, and while freese is definitely a prospect, the cards have the position covered next year nad would still have allen craig and brett wallace as possibilities to take over in 2010.

i have no idea how that idea would be received by the bay, but i’d sure consider making that type of offer if i were the cardinals.

0 recs  |  Comment 118 comments

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We have lots of chips

I’d do Ankiel, Freese, and Todd for Cain. The loss of Freese and Todd don’t really hurt the system. My feeling is that Ank will never be healthy. He’s proved me wrong before … but has a well established track record of injury. Ludwick is the glue who holds the team together when Albert goes AWOL for stretches. We need his bat in the lineup every night. With the emergence of Tools Jones and Rasmus, I’m less concerned about losing Ankiel. We’ll be fine in CF. I’m not convinced Todd will be more than a plus B. Thompson … which is not a bad thing just not a great thing.

by jjray on Sep 23, 2008 8:22 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Super Glue

Before you call him the glue in the lineup you might consider giving him a couple more years to prove its not a fluke.

by llabyellov on Sep 23, 2008 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that's why we should trade him now

in a couple of years, we won’t be able to get nearly the return we could get this offseason, due to the fact this is most likely going to be his best year, plus he’ll be older and closer to free agency.

by Glowsticks on Sep 23, 2008 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

heh

Tool’s Jones is a guitarist!

go rays

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 24, 2008 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

From a Giants perspective

I think you’re right, i’m not sure we’d be interested in “potential” players, because that’s not really the way Sabean likes to go. Even ignoring that fact, i don’t think the two sides match up well i’m afraid. You’ve obviously got some valuable pieces, but they don’t really match up with our needs.

Players like Rasmus, Ludwick, Ankiel are good players, who’d benefit our team, but our outfield is pretty much fine at the moment (Rowand, Winn, Lewis, Schierholtz, Bowker) & so i can’t see us trading Cain, with an outfielder being the main piece.

If we were to trade Cain, i’m sure it’d be in return for infielders, where our need is, and i’m not sure St Louis has the pieces there, necessary for us to part with Cain.

Proud owner of the most boring Username! Alex Hinshaw: Now showing in a bullpen near you!

by GiantFan on Sep 23, 2008 8:25 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Established Infielders

If it is the case that Sabean likes established players and Giants need infielders, then the only option I would see is Glaus for the centerpiece. Is Freeze, Craig or Wallace close enough to deal Glaus if a situation arises? Does Glaus have a no-trade? Would he waive it? Does he have any value with 1 year remaining on his contract? Is there any 1-2 year FA stopgap available?

You are probably right that the two sides do not match up that well.

by andujar on Sep 23, 2008 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd like Mo to make a run a Zack Greinke

The cost would be high and have to include Ryan Ludwick and maybe a third base prospect (Freese?) and a probably a high-level pitching prospect (Boggs, Todd). Greinke is only two years away from free agency. They Royals are looking for a CF and a right-handed power hitter. Ludwick can solve both of those needs and is years away from FA. I think a third base prospect would help KC because, to this point, Alex Gordon has not really established himself (and maybe never will?). They would need a pitcher back too. Is it a step price? Yes, I would say so but in putting my GM hat on for both teams I would do it from either side. That means, of course, it would never happen. :-)

by nmstar on Sep 23, 2008 9:02 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Third base isn't gonna interest the Ms

They love Alex Gordon, he’s not going anywhere, and have Moustakas in the pipeline.

Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .259 .360 .378
Skip Schumaker: $Free .305 .361 .414
Skippy needs a new publicist

by joker24 on Sep 23, 2008 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I disagree

I live in KC and no one here thinks he is the second coming of George Brett, or even a poor man’s George Brett. He’s still young and could improve, sure, but maybe not. He is still sporting a below 800 OPS. If KC thinks he is untouchable they have even bigger problems. Moustakas is, at best, two years away…right when Greinke can walk. SS would be a better match for KC I admit but we don’t have any of those either.

by nmstar on Sep 23, 2008 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Greinke & Ankiel on the same team?

That would really be something.

defy, cards, defy. hey logic --- you suck.

by effin fisk on Sep 23, 2008 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i was listening to a kc radio station at lunch today

during a segment with Jayson Stark. He more or less said from his sources, the Royals would move Greinke, but that they are look at getting 3 top prospects for him. I would love to have Greinke in the Cards’ rotation, but would he cost us Anderson, Jones, and… I will not say Rasmus

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Sep 23, 2008 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd give up

anderson boggs and todd for zach…in a heartbeat…not sure that would work though. I would also part with craig or jay or anyone not named colby brett or daryl.

"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum

by nomar34 on Sep 24, 2008 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I live in KC

I believe that trade talks for Zach Greinke would have to start with:

1) Bryan Anderson (because the Royals absolutely need catching help in a big way – i.e., they have brought in LaRue and Miguel Olivo to battle it out as starters the last two years)

2) One of Ryan Ludwick or Rick Ankiel (because the Royals have to gain a power bat in the offseason. They do not SLG. At all. None. I think that they might try to trade for a power bat AND go for Burrell/Dunn/Teixeira)

3) A near-ready starting pticher.

If we had a big time SS prospect, I would say that it would be needed…but we don’t. We need one of those.

That being said, I think that if we can do Anderson, Ankiel, and Boggs for Greinke…I’d do it.

by stlfan on Sep 24, 2008 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Anderson, Ankiel , and Boggs?

I would hope they would seriously consider that one.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Sep 24, 2008 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not dead yet!

Baseball Prospectus has us making the playoffs in 35 out of a million simulations:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

Go Cards!

Lou Brock loves Lamp.

by birdjam on Sep 23, 2008 9:19 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Last night's game was a downer.

The team looks flat. I was sitting down the left field line and I bet my friend that Floppy would make a poor defensive play before the 3rd inning. He proceeded to get picked off 1st base and then in the top of the next inning nearly kill Albert with a terrible attempt to turn the double play. He had some pretty decent plays too (the Ronnie Belliard short RF position play towards the end was nifty) but more often than not he struggles go carry that lead glove around.

Tony deserves a kick in the shins for letting Mark Johnson (our effing 3rd string catcher) bat in the 8th as the tying run. There were at least 4 bench players available to PH and instead I had to watch a AAA player hit a weak fly out to CF. For all the talk earlier in the season about LaRussa getting the most out of a subpar group this year, he’s pissed away numerous strategic opportunities over the last few weeks. He deserves his fair share of the blame for the collapse this September.

If the Cardinals move some outfielders, I think Bobby Abreu is a great target for a short term stop gap. He’s still posting an OBP north of .370 with good power (19HR) and average corner defense. If the Yankees let him go, he seems like a nice under the radar target for a 2-year deal. Maybe he’ll want more than that (I’d be willing to do a vesting 3rd year based on PAs) but I think he’s fit well at a reasonable cost and free up Mo to trade some of our cost controlled players.

by azruavatar on Sep 23, 2008 9:23 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Abreu

Sky at Beyond the Box Score would appear to disagree with your assessment of Abreu. Based on This Post he is a 47 defRBI liability in the field, with an 11 point cushion. Also in This Post he shows his total value above replacement level as 9 when he states that league average is 20 to 25.

by JBrew on Sep 23, 2008 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not buying it.

PMR has him as an average to slightly above average player for 3 years running through 2007. Unless he has dramatically declined this year, the numbers that Sky is coming up with are probably because of a) 5/6 of a year of defensive data, b) a “blip” in defense similar to what we see when players have “career years” offensively — or conversely, career lows or c) something in RZR. Without grinding into the merits of RZR versus PMR (they’re both good metrics, I’m a little warier of RZR but I’m quibbling) I’m not sold that Abreu is really that bad of a fielder.

by azruavatar on Sep 23, 2008 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think the Abreu idea is outstanding

He is on par with Ludwick defensively imo and if you let go of Ankiel, an OF of Rasmus, Ludwick and Abreu would be outstanding. Abreu is not a ‘clutch’ guy – one who excels in a major market spotlight or as the focal point of an offense but if he was hitting in the 2 hole we might have a perfect fit for Pujols and TLR. He’s a lefty with pop and a great OBP. It makes Ludwick in the cleanup spot a workable solution. The only issue would be the leadoff spot – Rasmus wouldnt work bc TLR would never hit 2 lefties back to back, but if we can find a MIF that can leadoff you can fix that issue.

1. 2B
2. Abreu
3. Hombre
4. Ludwick
5. Glaus
6. Rasmus
7. Yadi.
8. Izturis
9. Pitcher

With an obvious upgrade in the rotation, that looks like a lineup that can win games.

by rlgosnell on Sep 23, 2008 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fielding Bible has Abreu at -24 plays in RF, after a couple of bad seasons in 2006 and 2007.

by greenback06 on Sep 23, 2008 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll bite.

The question then becomes is this the true talent level or just a blip. Players can have defensive peaks and valleys just like they can offensively. If he’s getting worse, it’s probably not on the magnitude of 20 runs at a time. He may be something more like a -5 to -10 player true talent level.

I don’t watch the Yankees enough to know whether Abreu really has lost a step. He’s only 34 and his offensive skills haven’t deteriorated so I’d be inclined to think it’s a blip. Could be wrong though. The +/- system is a good metric so I’m more persuaded but not quite a believer yet.

by azruavatar on Sep 23, 2008 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

fielding bible has him at -14 in 2006 and -14 in 2007. maybe the methodology is bad, but this isn’t a blip.

by greenback06 on Sep 23, 2008 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's one metric

PMR had him as above average both of those years. UZR has him as -6 per 150 in 2006 & 2007. The Fan Scouting Report has him as a tick below average in 2007. Maybe PMR is the outlier. -11 runs, however, seems high to me and -22 seems way to high.

Even if we label him as a below average corner outfielder, I still like the idea of picking him up. His offense compensates for the loss on defense.

by azruavatar on Sep 23, 2008 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

a few weeks ago

a writer at THT (unfortunately, I forget who) put together a spreadsheet to figure out the number of runs each player has provided defensively. He based it on THT’s #‘s for balls in play and the % of those that each player made, and balls out of their zone and the % of those they made. Then he figured out the # of runs that player was worth based on the % of each that should’ve been made and the run value of each play.

For right fielders, Bob Abreu was dead last in the bigs. This was a few weeks ago and I plan to take the spreadsheet and incorporate the end of the season #s, but, according to THT’s accounting, Abreu was -27.54 runs defensively. If Fielding Bible has him at -24, and THT has him at -27 (roughly), no matter how you slice it, he’s really bad. I’m not sure his offense will offset that kind of defense.

by chuckb on Sep 23, 2008 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i am a big Yankee fan

please don’t shoot!

and yes, he has clearly lost a step. or two to be honest.

the small right field in the NYC is perfect for him now. and unless he’s willing to go to 1st or DH, i think that’s where he’ll stay. he loves the Yanks & has a lot of close friends on the team & has said he wants to stay there. plus they’ll pay him the most.

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Sep 23, 2008 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was at the game, too

I left in a very foul mood. Getting doubled off second, getting picked off first, Iz2 not scoring from second on a single to center…these are inexcusable mental errors. They cost the Cards the game. Didn’t help when Pujols struck out in a key situation, but I guess he is mortal, after all.

And, of course, I wonder why Miles started in left rather than Barton.

by mojowo11 on Sep 23, 2008 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was at the game, too...

… but spent most of the night coming down from a nice buzz I’d worked up at Llewellyn’s in Soulard. Therefore, any analysis I could provide would be impaired.

On STL radio lately, some wonder if TLR’s trying to make a point to management by running out these lineups. As far as Barton goes, TLR made a statement on STLtoday.com the other day about knowing what Barton can do and that he’s already going to be around next year. I’m still not sure how that translates into preferring Miles or Kennedy in the OF instead though.

by AndyB83 on Sep 23, 2008 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If anyone figures that out

or can even give me a good argument for it, I would appreciate it.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Sep 23, 2008 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trade with the Giants

While I like the idea of trading Freese and Ludwick for Cain a few thoughts:

1. I agree with others that Ankiel seems to be an injury prone player, which highlights the need in my eyes to trade him rather than Ludwick.

2. If I am the Giants, I am trading Cain and Zito at once (much like the Lowell Becket deal). For a Cardinal team short on starters heading into 2009, Zito would be a fine project for Duncan to fill in at the back of the rotation if Carpenter is not ready to go (rotation of Wainwright, Cain, Welly, Pineiro, Zito with a possible addition of Carpenter). That said, Zito’s contract is awful. Signed through 2013, with salaries of $18.5M each year in 2009, 2010 and 2011 and $19M in 2012 and $20M in 2013. The deal includes a team option for 2014 worth $18M or a $7M buyout. I wonder how much the Cards would need to take on to make a deal work for the Giants? With Zito in the deal and the Cards taking on half the value of the contract, maybe the deal could get done with something like Duncan, Freese and another pitcher.

3. I agree that the Cards should be looking to move some of its offensive surplus, particularly at 3rd base and the outfield, to upgrade either the middle infield offense or the starting rotation. That said, perhaps the Twins would be a target to consider as well. The overall quality of the starting prospects like Slowey are not as good as the Giant’s Cain, but they have a clear need for a power hitting 3rd baseman and Freese would be a good fit.

by JMedwick on Sep 23, 2008 9:40 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

I like the creative thinking. Taking on Zito’s deal is hard to swallow but, in a way. you’d be getting two pitchers for the (extremely high) price of one for at least the next 3 years.

As for that $46MM after 2011? There’s the rub. I know a certain first baseman who’s going to be looking for a new contract begining in 2012. And he’s not going to be cheap.

by Hal Lanier's Pants on Sep 23, 2008 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Saw him pitch last Friday

At Dodger Stadium and he was hitting 88 and higher …in fact we even commented on how good he looked.
Just my 2 cents.

by Timbo02 on Sep 23, 2008 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

4.40 ERA since the ASB

As opposed to 6.30 beforehand. He’s been slightly better lately, for whatever reason.

by mojowo11 on Sep 23, 2008 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree that it is an open question

Whether Zito can even be an acceptable back of the rotation starter. His numbers in 2008 certainly don’t look like it.

That is why an honest appraisal of Zito by Duncan and the Cardinal scouts is critical in such a deal. If Dunc thinks he can get something approaching league average out of Zito, then the a deal might be worthwhile. If Zito is going to stink up the joint worse than Kip Wells and the like, then I am not at all sure how useful he would be. $10 million a season (assuming the Cards take on half of Zito’s contract) is a lot to pay a swingman\ future LOOGY.

by JMedwick on Sep 23, 2008 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

don't forget

dunc may be around for only 1 more year. tony and dave move on, i think most will look at the situation differently, expecially with folks like zito who have very long contracts

"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension

by sportsman on Sep 23, 2008 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd go w/ Freese

Ludwick and Clayton Mortensen. That way they get their 2 power hitters, plus a pitcher who can step into the rotation in about a year or so (give or take 3 months).

by chuckb on Sep 23, 2008 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Are the Giants still looking for.....

a left-handed, power hitting 1B? Anybody know?

by SoonerfanTU on Sep 23, 2008 9:54 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i'd consider

ludwick (my favorite, but …) and cd for cain. if cd can’t play they can get a ptbnl from a restricted mlist.

"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension

by sportsman on Sep 23, 2008 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mo - you're fired :)

lb, take the reins! I like it!

I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. ~Bill Veeck

by bukowski on Sep 23, 2008 10:55 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

trading Ankiel would be foolish

He’s in his third year of being an outfielder and has made astonishing progress, both at the plate and in the field. He’s the only other player on the roster with Pujols-like talent. Right now he gets himself out as often as the pitchers get him out. With his learning curve that’s soon going to end and he will post .300/30/100 years routinely. When he stops chasing pitches out of the zone and forces the pitchers to get him out he and Albert will be a fearsome anchor to the lineup.
If they trade someone it should be Ludwick, but they seem to be down on Rasmus, so it might be him. Ludwick for Cain or Greinke sounds good. Does anyone think Ludwick plus another piece or two could get Peavy and Greene?
San Diego has to be in full rebuilding mode, and no real need for Peavy.

by vinniefromjersey on Sep 23, 2008 11:06 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree that the peak level of talent for Ankiel may be higher than that for Ludwick

That said, Ankiel has a strong track record of injuries since he converted to being a hitter. Being so injury prone, it is an open question whether Ankiel will ever reach his peak talent.

by JMedwick on Sep 23, 2008 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What?

How could a team not need Jake Peavy?

You need to have a “core” when you rebuild, and I’d say a late 20s Cy Young winner is a pretty good part of any core.

by Hal Lanier's Pants on Sep 23, 2008 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Need Jake Peavy?

Stud pitchers are nice to have around, but because the risk (severity) of an injury is so high— especially for guys in or close to their 30s is so high, I’d say if you aren’t in contention they are better used to trade for young talent.

The question isn’t if a team doesn’t need a Jake Peavy. The is what do they need more: Jake Peavy or what he could fetch in a trade. If you are smart about it a guy like Jake Peavy would get you his replacement plus a prospect or two. (See Mulder, Mark.)

The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!

by Zubin on Sep 23, 2008 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

foolish?

really? Careful w/ those exaggerations! he’s a year away from free agency and will be 31 his first year following free agency. I’d say it’s 50-50, at best, that he’s a Card after becoming a free agent, and 50-50, if he is, that it was a good deal for the team. If we could get a good young SS or pitcher for him, we should do it.

by chuckb on Sep 23, 2008 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No kidding

he’s a player who has been injured both mentally and physically practically every season of his career.

It’d probably be more foolish to trade Ludwick than Ankiel, since we’ve got more control over Ludwick, Ludwick has been a better player and he doesn’t have Scott Boras as his agent.

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 23, 2008 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

on not having to deal with Scott Boras.

by cardsgirl95 on Sep 23, 2008 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

if Sabean would make that deal with Ankiel as the centerpiece

he should be fired immediately

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Sep 23, 2008 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

to compare Ankiel with Pujols is silly.

Ankiel may have made great progress but he doesn’t even have Rasmus-like talent. He is a free swinger with major holes in his swing and hes already 30.

by rlgosnell on Sep 23, 2008 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i am flat out against trading for any young pitchers till Dave Duncan is gone

i’m sure he’ll find a “flaw” in his delivery. or maybe he’ll simply not like the cut of his jib, or some other kind of asinine excuse that really means he throws too hard, strikes too many guys out, gets too many fly outs, and simply doesn’t pitch to contact.

it really makes no sense to go out & trade away good talent that’s just going to be wasted. until we get a pitching coach that can actually work with all types of pitchers, i’d hold off on acquiring one of Cain’s talents. in fact, we should be doing the exact opposite & trading away pitchers on our roster (YP) just because DD has no use for them & cannot work with them. i really don’t understand why we don’t have a rotation & pen full of Jeff Suppan type guys when that’s really all DD can handle.

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Sep 23, 2008 12:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Why do you think they have not messed with Motte yet?

1. he throws 95-98
2. he throws up in the zone
3. he just falt out attacks the zone
4. 15.43 K/9
5. 12 k/bb
6. .167 OBP/ .130 SLG/ .290 OPS/ .130 BA

According to you the Dave Duncan hates this stuff, yet we have seen Motte pitch in a ton of situations and it seems like TLR/Duncan/ and Mason all like this guy.

by ICbirdfan on Sep 23, 2008 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Come on

That’s a reach.

The team did that with Matt Morris when he came back from injury. The Red Sox did it with Schillling, the Braves did it with Smoltz – and they weren’t young. Starters coming off injuries go to the pen in some instances. And in the “instance” that presented itself this year, it looked like maybe Carp was going to take a rotation spot and the closer role was, at the time, a huge black hole. The idea of putting WW in the pen was not because he was young, but because he was coming off injury and had experience closing.

by Hal Lanier's Pants on Sep 23, 2008 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Those pitchers had Tommy John's surgery

Adam Wainwright had no surgery. He had a pulley injury in his finger.

Chris Carpenter had TJ surgery and they threw him back into the rotation. And look what we have now, a nerve problem.

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 23, 2008 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Again, come on.

The talk about putting WW in the pen arose because he had closed games before. Carp had not.

by Hal Lanier's Pants on Sep 23, 2008 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Again, come on.

That’s a pretty poor reason to put your best pitcher recovering from a non-surgical injury into the bullpen.

He was also said to be available for ‘middle relief’, not closing.

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 23, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think La Russa

has just been thinking out loud a little too often this year.

Nearly all of his “outrageous” statements have died on impact (Wainwright to the ‘pen, Carp closing two days before he was shut down). And he’s still got that fungo bat.

In the overall: Lopez still starts, Kennedy starts in the outfield, and Ank played with a hernias for two months (my high school soccer team had a better medical staff than the cards). Even though the birds have overachieved, this may have been one of La Russa’s worst managerial season.

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on Sep 23, 2008 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I'm not defending their reason, just saying I don't think WW's youth had much to do with it.

basically, you’re saying the team talked about it (even though you say “tried it”) because he’s 26 years old and they don’t trust or like young pitchers. None of the other factors, such as injury and experience closing, mattered?

Note that I’m not endorsing the thought that they should have put Adam in the pen, just that I disagree with you that the reasoning behind it was “we don’t favor youngsters around here, so Adam might be gong to the pen.”

by Hal Lanier's Pants on Sep 23, 2008 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Looper's closed games before as well

Like you, I think there was more to it than AW’s youth but I’m not willing to simply discount it either. Whatever the reason, it was a bad decision. It’s too bad it took a continuation of Carp’s injury problems to help Tony and Dunc make that decision.

by chuckb on Sep 23, 2008 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ok

Looper wasn’t coming back from an injury.

And “it was a bad decison”? Um, the decision was to put Wainer back in the rotation, which is what happened.

It seems like we jump all over management when it leaks things that it is considering, even if it doesn’t wind up doing them. And then there are many others on tihs board who go nuts that management is not “being straight with the fanbase” when it gives vauge answers or comments. Damned if they do and damned if they don’t.

by Hal Lanier's Pants on Sep 23, 2008 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

excuse me

it was a bad idea, not decision. Now you’re arguing semantics.

As to the rest…I don’t care about what managent says but…damn them if they stick our best starter in the bullpen. That’s clearly what Tony preferred to do and what he would have done, even though it would have been a bad decision, had Carp been able to pitch.

by chuckb on Sep 23, 2008 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree Duncan can over think stuff at times, but I think Perez does need to tweak a thing or two.

I don’t want to see them flat out change Perez but, tweak him so he can be consistently good which I think he has the ability to do.

by ICbirdfan on Sep 23, 2008 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

you say tweak, Dunk says total overhall

he wants to change almost everything about how YP pitches. what other MLB team would do that to their “closer of the future”?? he also wants Motte to throw low in the zone as well. seriously. MO should seriously consider trading them before Dunk screws them up beyond repair.

for whatever reason Dunk hates pitchers with over powering high rising fastballs. Yp has that. Motte can have that. Cain has that. Adam does not. Carp does not. Loop does not. Lohse does not. The only one on the staff who maybe has it is Tadallion. can any one name a former pitcher under Dunk who had a main weapon as a high rising fastball? Matto Mo didn’t. Soup didn’t. Betty didn’t. Woody didn’t. i seriously can’t remember any pitcher for the Cardinals who’s main out pitch was a high fastball.

dont take my words the wrong way. i love Dave. Tony too. i am very grateful for every win they have given us fans. but i just don’t think their way of doing things works for the Cardinals anymore. and i really feel they are holding the team back. they just show little to no wiggle room when it comes to doing things a different way. and with the influx of new talent & players, that doesn’t work anymore. does it?

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Sep 23, 2008 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I kind of smiled when I read the main post about Matt Cain.

A high strike out pitcher with a 33.7% GB rate. Yeah, that sounds like the kind of guy they’d get in line for.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Sep 23, 2008 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rijo

But he didn’t do well until he escaped.

by DriverZn on Sep 23, 2008 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree, don't take Mottes weapon away from him.

I see Duncan letting the relievers throw hard up in the zone, however STL has not really had any hard throwing relievers in a long time. Wellemeyer was the hardest throwing reliever last year… When he let lose he touched 97 MPH.

I agree it seems like all the starters work low in the zone for various reasons. I don’t think many of them really have much high heat besides Welle and he does go up in the zone.

I think Dunc has flaws for sure.

by ICbirdfan on Sep 23, 2008 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Are we making things up now?

When did Duncan say that Motte needs a “total overhaul”? When did he say he “wants to change almost everything about how Perez pitches”?

How come people bitch when they feel LaRussa is lying or the organization is not being truthful about injuries or organizational plan, yet we seem completely comfortable making things up and presenting them as fact?

Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.

Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.

by Tackle Box on Sep 24, 2008 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree... It's like people take a partial meaningless quote and make crap up...

All of a sudden a comment about Perez and Motte needing to work on command becomes Larussa and Duncan want to release them from the organization.

I just ask that people not make crap up… It’s really annoying

by ICbirdfan on Sep 24, 2008 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Justin Duchscherer

i think he would be a more realistic target.

he’s 30/31, but had a great season in his 1st full yr as a SP after several yrs as a dominant reliever.

A’s are rebuilding and he could be had for a reasonable price

by Asfan4ever723 on Sep 23, 2008 12:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

meh

beane would definitely selling high, but i dont think there’s much chance that Duchscherer even comes close to his numbers this year. not to mention he hasn’t exactly been healthy even this year. pass

by FunkeeC on Sep 23, 2008 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

giants

they have some pretty decent MI prospects too. noonan is probably too much to include in that package but it sounds like they are down on both velez and burriss so they might be had.

"Sorry about him, he's dealing with being an inker. " - Chasing Amy

by FutureMan on Sep 23, 2008 2:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Why does it have to be an either/or question?

Why can’t they trade both Ludwick and Ankiel away? Trading Ludwick now is the epitome of “sell high”, and I think our team would be much better off with with some pitching help than strikeout prone rally-killing outfielders. We all know Ank has the physical makeup to be a big leaguer, but I don’t think he has it mentally.

by Turkatron on Sep 23, 2008 2:55 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think the outfield situation deteriorating during the stretch shows the need to keep one or the other

as for which, I’m behind keeping Ludwick. He is a force in the lineup – Ankiel and Glaus are nice complementary pieces but they don’t put pressure on pitchers the way Ludwick does. Both can be handled with a simple approach. Ludwick hits mistakes and also hits good pitches. Rasmus, Ludwick and a platoon between Barton, Mather, Skip etc. would be functional. Unless we pay for the likes of Abreu as stated above I dont think we can affod to start Rasmus and two of the platoon guys.

by rlgosnell on Sep 23, 2008 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Does anybody else think that...

Waino could replace the role that Carpenter once held? Do we really need two aces? I think that Waino and a 3 solid starters behind him (Colnel, Looper, and possibly a Lowe type) could do the trick. Leave that 5th spot open for the Carpenter and keep the seat warm with guys like Boggs, Mortenson, and Todd. Whatever we get from Carp would be a big plus and it also allows you the opportunity to see what the young guys have to offer.

by FredbirdisaDork on Sep 23, 2008 3:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

"Do we really need two aces?"

If we’re going with a defensive heavy, non-hitting middle infield again next year, we probably do.

Wainwright and Carp have never been in the same rotation together. How much fun would it be to watch them both be healthy for a whole season.

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on Sep 23, 2008 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not saying that I don't want that too

All I am trying to say is what I read a few days ago on here… Carp should be the icing on the cake, not part of the cake. He should be like Harden is for the Cubs. I think that the Cubs were fine before they added him, hence him being the icing.

by FredbirdisaDork on Sep 23, 2008 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

hypothetical question

say ludwick won’t acquire cain, but he’ll do the trick with johnny sanchez. would you make that move?

Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.

by Dave Barry on Sep 23, 2008 3:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Cain for Pujols

The only way I’d want Sabean to deal Cain is if he got overpaid for him. This would count

Adopted Giant: Aaron King

Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat

by baetown415 on Sep 23, 2008 5:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

If they had any sense, they might keep Cain and go after

Adam Dunn-he only costs them money.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Sep 23, 2008 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

STLToday news on Carp - not good.

Possible career threatening injury.


“This is a big deal,” according to source close to Carpenter. “If the nerve doesn’t recover, it’s a serious problem. It could prevent him from pitching.”

The imaging found damage to at least five nerves, according to a source familiar with the findings.

by rencelas on Sep 23, 2008 6:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

ya just saw that linked on MLBtraderumors

sigh, just makes MO’s off season that much more fun eh? i believe not many of us was going to assume carp being back in the rotation next year and not that we should have assumed carp will be back, but it would have been nice to at least deal with other teams without them knowing we are desperately needing rotation help in addition to the known issues of MI and some lefty bullpen help. should make for interesting times this off season at least.

by FunkeeC on Sep 23, 2008 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

anyone ready to throw

$50-60 Million at Ryan Dempster?

Will the Carp extension, rather than the Mulder trade, go down as Walt’s worst decision? In terms of $ and results, if Carp never pitches meaningful innings again, the Mulder acquisition will be superior to the Carp extension. The Carp extension was absolutely unnecessary while, it could at least be argued that the Mulder trade was necessary to help the team win then. I said it Sunday and I’ll say it again, the Carp deal could end up in the same category as the Darren Dreifort free agent signing by the Dodgers.

by chuckb on Sep 23, 2008 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And if you don't extend them early.....

They either leave, or command more money later.

by SoonerfanTU on Sep 23, 2008 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

For pitchers its better to over pay for fewer years

Than to try to get a great long term deal. The list of 4+ year contracts for pitchers that have ended well is pretty short and the success rate for such contracts very low.

by DriverZn on Sep 23, 2008 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

it has to go down as his worst decision, easily

44.5 M reasons why it would be. That is almost 15M the team could have used in each of the next three years to help the team. That would definitely pay for that impact bat.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Sep 23, 2008 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would doubt

though I don’t know for sure, that anyone would insure a pitcher w/ a history of arm problems. That is, after all, the reason he was released by the Jays and the biggest reason he’s a Cardinal. I don’t know whether it’s insured or not, but I’d be stunned if it is.

by chuckb on Sep 23, 2008 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I thought I read that they couldnt insure it

I am gonna try to look that up

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Sep 23, 2008 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dreifort

Well, in terms of results AFTER the contract is signed, then yes, you can compare Carp’s deal to Dreifort’s. The difference is that prior to the deal Carp had won a Cy Young, been an undisputed ace for a few years, pitched a huge World Series game, and seemed to be healthy. Dreifort, on the other hand, was quite possibly Scott Boras’ all time masterpiece. The guy had only pitched 3 full years in the majors, never had a full-season ERA under 4.00, had only one winning season, and never came close to leading the league in anything.

by Hal Lanier's Pants on Sep 23, 2008 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

the other difference

is that Dreifort was actually a free agent whereas Carp still had 1 year + an option left on his deal. The prudent thing to do would have been to wait and, if Carp pitched well in ’07, sign him to an extension or pick up the option. Instead, Walt needlessly signed Carp to the extension. If he had waited, the decision would have been different (hopefully) once Carp got hurt in April of 2007 and, at the very worst, the $ amount the Cards are faced w/ for the next 3 years would have been less.

by chuckb on Sep 23, 2008 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

is that contract insured?

If carp is done, how much of the contract do the cards eat?

by hex706f726368 on Sep 23, 2008 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

isnt the last year

a 15M option with a 1M buyout?

now that would make it the mother of all bad contract if the option was picked up*****

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Sep 23, 2008 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

there's an option

but the buyout is guaranteed

by chuckb on Sep 23, 2008 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

you couldn't see me flinch

as i read that.

i can’t complain though. i thought it was an ok idea at the time.

by hex706f726368 on Sep 24, 2008 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

no i don't think so

while at the time it was an unnecessary extension, it was one given when everyone thought his health concerns were in the past. Mulder’s deal plus don’t forget his extension gave up 3 prospects that could have helped the Cards win then, now & in the future. that has deal done far, far more damage to the Cards chance of winning, then, now & in the future & while many will consider it Walt’s worst move.

a big question is, were the Cards able to insure any part of Carps deal? if so, it’s really not going to be that big of a hit to their pocket book. even if it wasn’t, it’s still not that big of a hit to their wallet. it’s still plenty fat & they will still be able to go get almost any pitcher they want. CC excluded because, well, the big 5 are going to give him whatever he wants & sadly we all know the Cards can’t do that & pay Albert.

what hurts most if Carp can’t be Carp, is the Cards will lose is his leadership & his will to win. he was almost Michael Jordan like on the mound. he refused to lose & let his team lose when he took the mound. can the Cards replace that? sure they can go get AJ or whoever, but AJ or whoever they sign to take Carps place probably won’t have the attitude, work ethic, leadership & the refusal to lose that Carp has. and that’s what i think will hurt the Cards the most.

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Sep 23, 2008 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

really?

making up for 1 bad contract to a starter by giving another pitcher w/ a history of injuries $12-15 M per year for 3-4 years? That’s imperative now?

by chuckb on Sep 23, 2008 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Man oh man

Does any one else feel like they have been outright whizzed on? I can’t say who is doing the whizzing… but seriously…. seriously what gives?

by FredbirdisaDork on Sep 23, 2008 6:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Wow, Outfielders in the Outfield

From Bernie:

Iztu
Lopez
Pujols
Glaus
Ludw
Stav
Barton
Lohse
LaRue

Drew
Ojeda
Jackson
Dunn
Upton
Chris Young
Montero
Eckstein
Johnson

Of course I suppose Barton could be at 2b.

By the way is Barden still with the team?

by OCCardsFan on Sep 23, 2008 7:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Where are all the haters?

TLR puts Miles/Lopez in the OF, the entire lot of ya complain. He puts Barton and Stavi out there, and not a single reply.

by SoonerfanTU on Sep 23, 2008 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

they're young OFs

why would we complain?

by chuckb on Sep 23, 2008 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i've noticed a disturbing pattern with Sooner lately

he seams to go out of his way to pick fights. and i just have to ask why? aren’t we all friends here?

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Sep 23, 2008 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If I thought Tony knew how to use the internet

I might think they were the same person.

by DriverZn on Sep 23, 2008 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Duncan is very internet savy isn't he?

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Sep 23, 2008 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

maybe we should've replied

as I did in the game thread, btw, that it was the correct decision and heaped tons of praise on Tony.

Congrats, Tony! Brilliant decision. You are to be lauded for your foresight and brilliant managerial skills. We do love you after all!

by chuckb on Sep 23, 2008 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

good job Tony.

You’ve finally figured out who belongs in the outfield – outfielders!

by azruavatar on Sep 23, 2008 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bitch?

It’s called both sides of the coin. If you are going to complain nonstop when he doesn’t do it, you’d think he’d get a little support when he did do it.

And it isn’t a correct decision. There is no correct decision when it comes to something like this.

by SoonerfanTU on Sep 23, 2008 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's ignorant.

Putting Adam Kennedy in the outfield is even remotely defensible?

Tony put outfielders in the outfield. Kudos to him. Just because you have an unbalanced admiration for LaRussa doesn’t mean that he never gets complimented or defended. Just not to your worshipful standards.

by azruavatar on Sep 23, 2008 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

maybe not

but there clearly are incorrect decisions, and repeatedly sticking Miles, Lopez, and Kennedy in the OF are incorrect decisions.

by chuckb on Sep 23, 2008 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I disagree.....

Especially when the other options, at this point, are Stavi and Barton. Barton should probably have gotten a few more starts, but he isn’t an every day player. He isn’t that developed, and I don’t think he’s 100% healthy.

by SoonerfanTU on Sep 24, 2008 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

no playoff chances left = see what the young outfielders can do

I really can’t see why anyone would think that is a bad idea instead of running MIFs out there that are not even certain to be with the team next year.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Sep 24, 2008 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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