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Around SBN: Cal RB Jahvid Best Seriously Injured, Carted Off Field

You've just been hired as a manager for a MLB team..

Star-divide

This team happens to run things completely differently than the norm. As the manager you no longer make any play by play choices. Ever. You no longer make any lineup choices. Ever. 

As manager you are now a direct representation of the players for the front office and media. Your duties include talking to the players and guaging health and tiredness. Talking to the media and relating real issues within the clubhouse, issues with the minor league teams. Confronting the Ump is still part of your job, so you may actually do it more when an ump has a strike zone that appears to be sitting on Jello.

You now carry a tablet pc. This tablet now determines all situational game planning. It determines lineups, rotation management, bullpen management and uses and composes trends for opposing pitchers and managers.

The organization is very invested into the system behind the tablet. Spring Training is no longer just a warm up. During Spring Training a lot of info is collected in a way that gives the organization an ideal look at abilities. Range tests, reaction timing, home to first and the like. Consider it a team based "combine" akin to the NFL's setup. Of course with true biases towards things needed in the MLB. 

The system from a front office point of  view (since you're the manager, I'll give you a peek) would decide things from organizational promotions, demotions, player value, contracts, arb/option consequences and the like.

The organization also has inducted serious fines interally for not documenting any health based issues. There is no hero complex on our team. There are also a few battery of routine tests done during every homestand to keep a perspective on how the players are holding up. Our team doesn't believe in the concept in "70% there".

 Now, you're hired for the next 5 years. No 3am phone calls saying you're gone, no September press conferences. You were vetted before hand and understand what you're walking into. We'll take our chances.

Now, I'm going to sit you in front of the G.I.C (geeks in charge) to start talking about stats that would be needed in order to create such a system, information that has yet to be gathered, approaches to take into the club house and the like.

Here's where you come in. we no longer have a manager that has a dice that he rolls, or belief in a veteran that doesn't have stats to back it up. There is no concept of overexposure, protecting the young guys.

What stats would you use to decide future aquisitions, what stats would you use for line up construction, approaches towards the other teams pitchers, field positioning, minor league management, situationals.

if there isn't a stat, describe one that you would like to see looked at. Just because one is the only stat of its kind doesn't mean it is the defacto winner, if it has a foundation that gives it a bias then it should be contested.

In short, the whole idea is to take away all biases. Every night it seems there's gripes about lineup construction, so let's take the manager out of the equation. Every night there is gripes about the bullpen management, so let's look into taking the manager out of it as well.

What do you need in such a system, or things that you would like to have?

 

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So please enlighten me

was the point of this long fanpost just to put out there your frustration with people complaining about the manager? If not , did I totally miss the point?

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Sep 22, 2008 8:52 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Sorry Matt, I guess you did miss the point.

I was actually being sincere and serious. I don’t care to defend Tony and I haven’t read a game thread (or been around to do so) for almost a month. But I would think that it would be fair to say that all managers have their own issues.

The whole point was to try and see if there is enough statistical analysis and information out there to remove managers from the normal decision making and put them in more of a leadership role instead.

I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang

by AdjustedExpectations on Sep 22, 2008 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, I completely read that wrong then

Carry on

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Sep 22, 2008 10:13 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Honestly

I wouldn’t take that job, so the premise is dead right there…

But for the sake of discussion…well, I’ll have to think about that one…(me thinking)

And I’m back…Here are the stats I would at least begin the system with.

  • OBP…measures how often a hitter doesn’t get out…the simplest, and yet nearly the most effective measure of how truly valuable a player is. That is a good one to start with.
  • SLG…Pretty raw stat, but a very important one. If a team struggles getting on base, they better be hitting piss-rods everywhere and dropping bombs to make up for their lack of OBPing.
  • BB-rate for hitters and P/PA: Quick and dirty way of examining whether or not a guy has an idea of how to work a pitcher. One of the biggest things that I have gotten out of the whole saber-revolution is that yes, walks and long at bats have a lot to do with the hitter, and not just the pitcher. A guy who grinds out at-bats and sees a lot of pitches very likely knows what pitches he wants to hit and when, and therefore is willing to take pitches that aren’t to his liking.
  • K-rate for pitchers…Roughly examines how dominant a pitcher is. A guy w/ a high K rate likely has very good command, coupled with nasty stuff, as well as an idea how to maximize it to miss bats. If said rate declines, like this guy or this guy, I’d be worried. Why did this happen? Injury? Fatigue? Stuff-decline? This is also a good predictive stat. What’s not to love?
  • FIP…well, I like FIP. Fun to say, good to know about, etc…This number, of course, is a rough demonstration of how the guy did regarding the three true outcomes. It shows what the guy would do with no defense. A guy who has a consistently good FIP will probably pitch well no matter who you stick behind them.

Anyway, that is where I’d start. I’m not that smart of a guy, so clearly this is list is not an exhaustive one. A good system will probably have a whole gajillion of other data in it, and could pour out an objective and comprehensive picture of what Player X has provided up until this point and what he is likely to provide for several more years. However, given my limited cleverness in these issues, I can’t say much more here than that this is a good start.

"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.

by redbirdnation8206 on Sep 22, 2008 10:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good stats for evaulation

All of them seem to be on my list. I like what OPS+ has to offer as well. More and more of a fan of Bases Produced as well

I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang

by AdjustedExpectations on Sep 24, 2008 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

the point I got from a quick skimming

is that Larussa has gotten away from being objective

go rays

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 24, 2008 1:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I believe they all have

to some extent. This isn’t a dig on Tony as it is a look at another possible approach. You can ask the Brewers, Mets, M’s, all about bad decisions on the field as well as in the front office. I’d hazard to guess that don’t get a hard time either have the assets to win regardless of what they do, or have such a bad team to field that no one cares.

Just think instead of having a manager try a hit and run based on a gut feeling, the system sees that the pitcher is likely to throw a changeup or has a slow enough approach to the plate, the runner on first is quick enough to get to second and the batter has a high contract rate based on the pitcher’s type.

Maybe it’ll tell you that you know, you should just steal, because your odds of advancing a runner to second in that situation is just as likely.

That’s the context of the post – do we have the stats of such a system avail, if not what do we need and is it possible to not just build a team based on numbers, but execute it on the field in a situation by situation basis.

I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang

by AdjustedExpectations on Sep 24, 2008 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's hard to pin down

all of the nuances of managing a team in a short post. So this will be very quick and dirty, as they say. First off, I completely agree with the stats that redbirdnation8206 listed.

On the subject of appearances, I would always try to use the best relief pitchers when the game was on the line. I would try to avoid overusing them early in the season to the point where they tire out (see McClellan, Kyle). There is no reason to keep your best players on the field in a blowout. So, stats to watch closely for pitchers are games and IP in comparison to previous years.

Injuries. This has been a huge problem for the franchise lately and it seems as if most of us feel like the club has been doing a poor job treating and preventing them. Basically, I would be super cautious about even minor injuries. Just realized there isn’t a stat for this….moving on….

Finally, I would play “defense only” players in their correct positions. You can examine the various fielding statistics to determine who is best at what position, and use this information when constructing a lineup. This way offenive stats are not the only consideration when making a lineup.

Pinata - something children beat relentlessly with bats. Pineiro - . . . Some call it irony; I call it destiny.

by thegodfather on Sep 24, 2008 3:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Oh, I agree. There’s a lot of nuances out there to consider. Which is kinda the main reason why I decided to post this and see where others came from.

Regarding injuries, I highly agree. No matter how many numbers you crunch, injuries is always going to be the bane of it. If the organization takes a very harsh stance when it comes to injuries and has as solid communication channel it should help curb the “hero” attitudes who play through things they shouldn’t.

You would also need to make sure contracts are shaped in a way where minor one day off injuries and such don’t directly fly in the face of incentives. It would also need to be all encompassing – moving stretches closer to game time, personal nutritional programs, off season fitness regimes, and a standard per position battery of tests to be done per home stand. Something you wouldn’t nearly want to do everyday, but something where you would want to use to gauge how a player is holding up during a season (and you can look for trends for the future). These tests would extend all the way down the system as well.

Bullpen management is where I think there is a big win with this. Having a system where you can approximate the effectiveness per usage, seasonal trends, how to approach it during the game, how does usage today effect tomorrow, should you bat the batter in the bottom of the inning to get to someone in the lineup. If I had it my way, you would never have a LOOGY. The system should manage your staff for you and give you some way to see it in an objective manner.

And I highly agree on the defensive players – it was the straw that broke the camels back (and why I posted this)

I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang

by AdjustedExpectations on Sep 24, 2008 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The whole “be a hero” thing really kills us. Maybe it has happened so much lately because players watch Albert go out there and dominate with who knows how many injuries. I agree with what you suggested as potential ways to avert injury issues. I keep thinking of what could have been this year with just 1 or 2 fewer injuries…

Piñata - something children beat relentlessly with bats. Piñeiro - .858 OPS against. Some call it irony; I call it destiny.

by thegodfather on Sep 24, 2008 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

add in carp and waino

and you have a wc team, and the ultimate “hero” izzy being healthy and at least 80% of last year could possibly be a divisional winning one.

I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang

by AdjustedExpectations on Sep 24, 2008 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

oh yeah

agreed. though I do think it presents a solid rationale on why an objective system/tablet would be a good idea. take the “the vet can do it” thoughts out of the equation

I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang

by AdjustedExpectations on Sep 24, 2008 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It’s probably a mixture of a lot of things, players worried about arb value, free agent market, overuse early on, organization “pressing” players to play and so on. 2007 has a similar theme to it, sadly enough

I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang

by AdjustedExpectations on Sep 24, 2008 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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