Thinking Out Loud
| PAs | wOBA |
| 471 | .280 |
| 449 | .298 |
| 388 | .324 |
I never thought I'd find myself making this argument, but here goes. As this player has become more productive, they've received less playing time. When looking at wOBA, it's scaled to look like OBP so .~330 is around average for a player. Here we've got a middle infielder posting a league average-ish wOBA and they're playing time is decreasing? What if I told you that another player had received 340 PAs this season while posting a .271 wOBA.
That's right. I'm making an argument that Aaron Miles hasn't received enough playing time this season. Everyone has to have been a little surprised that mighty mite has posted an OBP near .350. He's been lucky but not extraordinarily so. Even if you project him to the future using a weighted average he still looks like a player capable of a .295 wOBA. So worst case scenario he's got 20 points on Kennedy (who has received 340 PAs this season).
We can lay the blame for playing time at LaRussa's feet. For someone who "plays the hot hand" and watches matchups, etc., he's consistently played a worse player this year. I think you'd be hard pressed to prove that the defensive difference is significant enough to overcome the offensive one. Aside from that though, Mozeliak deserves a kick in the shins for letting this team languish with 2 middle infielders on the bench for virtually the entire season. Pick either Kennedy or Miles (neither of whom should really play anything other 2B) and live with it. Add a more potent bat to your bench. Hopefully the 4 middle infielders is put to an end this year -- it's bad roster construction and it doesn't need to continue.
* * * * * * *
Poor Kyle Lohse. He signs a 1-year deal for below market rates in the offseason, joins the Cardinals and pitches out of his mind for the first half basically becoming the rotation stalwart and staff anchor after Wainwright and Wellemeyer went down. The Cardinals showed a great deal of fiscal restraint by not extending him and then he's tanked in the second half. I feel bad for the guy.
He's already thrown more pitches this year than the last three. With 2 more starts you figure he'll be about 150-200 pitches more. So maybe it's a fatigue issue. Pre-All Star break he had a 3.39 ERA in 120 innings; after the break he's put up a 4.50 ERA in about 70 innings. His FIP remains an impeccable 3.77 due in large part to the dramatic reduction in HRs. He's 7 innings away from his career high in 2003 when he allowed 28 HR. This year he's allowed just 16. A large part of that is the reduction in flyballs; he's generating more groundballs and I can't remember the last groundball HR I saw.
The Cardinals need some arms to pencil in after Wainwright, Wellemeyer and Pinata next year with Carpenter a question mark. Even if Lohse is a 4.50 ERA pitcher, that's still a valuable commodity. Would a Jason Marquis 3Y/24M get the job done? Would the Cardinals be better off signing Looper who might command fewer dollars and years? It's a hard choice to make but it might even be worth it to sign both of them.
* * * * * * *
Springer came in and retired one batter last night. At age 40, he's having another great season striking out nearly a batter an inning with a 3.48 FIP. The "get one out" theme has been a relatively common occurence with Springer this season as he's appeared in 66 games while only totaling 48 innings.
Looking to the future, I question whether he's part of the solution or part of the problem. The Cardinals have a very talented right handed relief corp with a lot of young power arms. Assuming the Cardinals take 5 righties in the pen, someone is going to get squeezed. McClellan, Perez, Motte, Worrell, Franklin, Thompson and potentiall Springer are all players capable of pitching at the big league level. Is it worth ~2.5M for the Cardinals to resign Springer if he can only pitch 50-ish innings? For a pen that's had workload issues all year, I wonder if the strain of reassinging innings from Springer to other players isn't a more serious problem than we realize at times.
* * * * * * *
One more tidbit before I go. I wasn't thrilled with LaRussa's decision to pull Perez last night. Yes, he was having command issues but wouldn't it have been worthwhile to see his reaction to getting himself into a tough situation? It's obvious the Cardinals are playing for next year and making sure that you have a closer in house would go a long way in the right direction.
Some will probably tell me to be satisfied by the fact that he brought Motte in. While I certainly want to see Motte get some big league innings, his outcome wasn't demonstrably better than Perez's. Skip Schumaker was practically leaning on the outfield wall as Jerry Hariston blooped a single over shortstop into shallow centerfield. Neither Skip nor Perez were wrong in that situation but the only difference between the Perez-Harriston at bat and the Motte-Keppinger at bat was Keppinger hit the ball harder.
All's well that ends well I suppose.
0 recs |
84 comments
Comments
I am glad Motte was in and not Franklin but..
I agree I wanted Perez to stay out there.
Now here is the lineup I want to see vs the Cubbies:
CF Schumaker
LF Barton
1B Pujols
RF Ludwick
3B Glaus/Barden
SS Ryan
C Johnson/Molina
P
2B Miles
by StLHugo on Sep 19, 2008 8:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I like your line-up.
The main thing I like is seeing outfielders in the outfield and infielders in the infield. STOP THE MADNESS! My only quibble, I would consider Iz2 at short, for his glove. I know, I know. Weak bat, etc. Notice that I only said “consider”.
I wasn’t upset that Tony pulled Perez and went with Motte. Chris hadn’t shown good command from the moment he got out there and I didn’t see any point in letting him be overwhelmed. I could have gone either way, but I was VERY pleased to see the Cards finally win!
by cardsgirl95 on Sep 19, 2008 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Iz vs Ryan
I was thinking player development with that position. Ryan may not have a future on this team but he has more of a future right now then Iz2 does since we control him for next year. He is also not far off defensively and I think could be better with the bat then what he showed this year. I would be pleased with Ryan as a sub but not the 2nd sub, we can’t afford to have too many MIF on the roster again.
by StLHugo on Sep 19, 2008 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1 cardsgirl
It’s just a tad annoying that we should have to even wish that OF and IF were playing in their natural positions….I don’t know of any other fan base that has to worry about that.
"Cross a lawyer with the Godfather, make you an offer you can't understand" - Don Henley
by TurdFerguson on Sep 19, 2008 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can't see any defensive metric
that tells me Izturis is any better at SS than Ryan. I don’t think a difference in .007 is significant in RZR and Ryan has a better percentage. Not that I am enamored with his offense, but if he could split the difference between last year’s offense and this year’s he would be about at his career slash of .263/.323/.344. Nothing to get excited about, but still better than Iz2 – for a lot less money. If we think there is any chance at all of his matching 2007’s .753 OPS then he should get an opportunity.
To paraphrase TLR, I thnk we know what Iz2 can do. Does anybody know when the last time was that a player appeared in 125 games for the Cardinals with an OPS below .600?
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Sep 19, 2008 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is what B-R PI is made for ;)
Yadier Molina, 2006, .595 OPS. Before that was Willie McGee, 1999, .570.
Disappointing that I didn’t know the answer to that one of the top of my head, though.
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/Ckj9
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
by SleepyCA on Sep 19, 2008 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't care if you like him or not.....
Lopez gets to be in the lineup. He’s been our 2nd best hitter behind Albert probably since about his 2nd week on the team, but definitely over the past 3 weeks or so.
by SoonerfanTU on Sep 19, 2008 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is odd
I agree with you Sooner…
You can’t tell me that Lopez is measurably worse than Miles at 2B. I can tell you that Lopez has a better small sample size of AB’s than Miles does this year. At this point Lopez should be starting every day at 2B.
by Harknights on Sep 19, 2008 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
comparing lopez to another bad fielding 2B isnt exactly how you make a case for him being good defensively
by FunkeeC on Sep 19, 2008 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no one said he was a good defender
the case being made above was that “Lopez can’t field at all”.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
by Tackle Box on Sep 19, 2008 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"he can't field at all" is fairly accurate
He has no business starting at second base in the major leagues. In 400 innings at 2B with the nats, he didn’t make 16 plays that an average 2B would have made. That scales up to 56+ plays over a year (1400ish innings). Kennedy was +19 in 632 innings, or about +42 over a full season.
Think about that- Kennedy would get to 90-100 balls that Lopez wouldn’t over the course of a season. That is a terrifyingly large number- assuming 90, and that they are all singles with an expected run value of .47, that would be worth close to 50 runs.
That’s a loss of 5 wins with the glove, going from Kennedy to Lopez! I’ll let someone else do the math on how well Lopez has to hit to make up for that, but I’m guessing it’s going to be in the .850 OPS range just to break even with Kennedy in terms of offense + defense.
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
by SleepyCA on Sep 19, 2008 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
c'mon now
let’s not let facts get in the way of an argument.
Fantastic info
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Sep 19, 2008 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like him, but
I feel like we need to play Ryan more often and Miles deserves some playing time too. Lopez can PH and sub but he needs to take a few days off of starting.
by StLHugo on Sep 19, 2008 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know you're making a case for Miles to play more
But don’t tell that to Kennedy. He’s asking for a trade due to lack of playing time. You think Mo could get some coffee and doughnuts for him?
by Evilfrog on Sep 19, 2008 9:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe one or the other
both would be a steal….
"Cross a lawyer with the Godfather, make you an offer you can't understand" - Don Henley
by TurdFerguson on Sep 19, 2008 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's not...
…get ahead of ourselves. Kennedy is very firmly in the bag of baseballs and maybe a few lineup cards territory.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Sep 19, 2008 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you're telling me there's a chance!
Baseball Prospectus’s playoff odds page says the Cards still have a 0.05456 % chance of making the playoffs.
Lou Brock loves Lamp.
by birdjam on Sep 19, 2008 9:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Looper
Would Looper bite on a 2 yr deal? I would hate to give more than 3 years to either Lohse or Looper. I know Lohse would require at least 3 maybe 4 but could Looper be coerced to signing a 2 yr 15 m contract?
by njnick on Sep 19, 2008 10:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Given
that he’s healthy, not all that old, has performed pretty damn well this year, and has no “baggage” I would serously doubt Loop will sign a 2 year deal. As for $$$, remember that a LOT of teams are going to have money coming off the books this winter and everyone needs starting pitching. So, 2/15 will not get it done at all. I’d say Loop gets in the 3/30 range.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Sep 19, 2008 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably right.
I just do not want to commit three years to either Looper or Lohse.
by njnick on Sep 19, 2008 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kennedy
Strauss notes that Kennedy is asking to be traded. Well at least there is some good news. If the Cardinals eat say half of his contract for next year, I would think someone would take him.
by OCCardsFan on Sep 19, 2008 10:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
anybody know which teams are looking for a right fielder?
by mattybobo on Sep 19, 2008 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hear SF is looking for a LH first baseman
by azruavatar on Sep 19, 2008 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
great Kennedy has experience there! Washington series.....
by ICbirdfan on Sep 19, 2008 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know how long I have been saying I can't believe Miles is not playing more (last 2 months)
by ICbirdfan on Sep 19, 2008 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kennedy can play
on my softball team if the Cards pick up the salary. We could use a lefty bat in the lineup.
by njnick on Sep 19, 2008 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As long as you have
a role for him. Wouldn’t want him to be a distraction.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Sep 19, 2008 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hit lefty
also can’t hit homers, and would do it for…say…$2.5 million? That’d save you guys a million bucks. Let me know and I’ll fly up and play.
by chuckb on Sep 19, 2008 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
happy happy joy joy
I sure hope some one will decide they need “veteran leadership”, that can’t hit anymore
"Textbooks are Soviet propaganda" - Rev. Jerry Falwell
by elirock83 on Sep 19, 2008 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the bullpenn was certainly overworked....
this year, but should the blame be directed more to a rotation that wasn’t going deep into games? i hadn’t considered the impact of springer’s limited innings. a big if, but if the rotation is more reliable next year, does that make having Springer less of a concern? also, do you buy into the notion that springer is a player/coach? that half of what he brings to the team is leadership for the young guys in the ’pen?
by bwhitt on Sep 19, 2008 10:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Don't blame the rotation
They’re 7th in the leage in innings pitched, 45 behind league leader Milwaukee (and we know who gave them a ton of those innings….). That’s not stellar, but it’s not like 2007 when they were 14th.
Lohse, Looper, and Wellemeyer are all currently top 30 in innings pitched. Wainwright has averaged 6.2 innings a start, but he’s only made 18 of them.
I disagree that the pen as a whole has been overworked.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Sep 19, 2008 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
MIF
I agree wholeheartedly with the assessment of Miles. Frankly, they should have slotted him in as the everyday starter and gotten rid of AK any way possible. However, I don’t think that Grit will be as good as he was this year next season and I hope TLR’s benching of him makes it less likely that we will be watching another season of Aaron Miles on the Redbird pine pony, SS, 2B, RF, CF, and Lord knows where else.
Here’s hoping for a Kennedy-free and Miles-free 2009…
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Sep 19, 2008 10:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If La Russa really is tanking it
to show up management, as he did in 2003, I hope 2009’s results reflect those of 2004.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
by Alxfritz on Sep 19, 2008 11:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
And that’s how I essentially saw the insertion of Motte—a giant signal to the (in attendance) ownership that TLR doesn’t think Perez is the answer at closer. So they better sign somebody.
by blove121 on Sep 19, 2008 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Then fire him
The organization has seen Perez as the ‘Closer of the Future’. If Old Manager is going to throw games to prove a point, Old Manager should look for work elsewhere. See how his new employer likes having a manager willing to throw games just to prove a point.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 19, 2008 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In fact, I hope he does become the GM in Seattle
I can’t wait to see him spend eleventy-billion dollars on K-Rod for a last place team.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 19, 2008 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If
the decision to not bring up Freese/Rasmus/Anderson were truly of management and not Tony, then I don’t blame him at all for the lineups he’s been running out there. I’d be pissed, too.
If they were Tony’s call and he’s still running those guys out there, then yeah, he needs to go.
Of course, I doubt we’ll ever get the Paul Harvey on this story.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
by Alxfritz on Sep 19, 2008 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, I can understand that
but does he have the right to throw a public hissy-fit?
If my bosses did something I didn’t like, like end the policy of placing coversheets on my TPS reports, would that give me the right to generally screw the TPS reports and not expect to get fired? Would that give me the right to unleash a virus on the companies banking software to have the roundoffs deposited in my own personal bank account?
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 19, 2008 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just like in
Superman 3!!!
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
by Alxfritz on Sep 19, 2008 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I only ask
because I don’t want to go to ‘pound me in the butt’ prison.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 19, 2008 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm a Michael Bolton fan.
For my money, I don’t know if it gets any better than when he sings “When a Man Loves a Woman”.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
by nomar34 on Sep 19, 2008 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can just call me Mike
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .259 .360 .378
Skip Schumaker: $Free .305 .361 .414
Skippy needs a new publicist
by joker24 on Sep 19, 2008 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why should I change?
he’s the one that sucks.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
by Alxfritz on Sep 19, 2008 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sucks?
Too kind. He’s a “no-talent ass clown.”
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Sep 19, 2008 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
how do you guys
consistantly remember this stuff line for line?
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com
www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Sep 19, 2008 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess you're Nagana....naga...na....nagunna work here anymore!
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .259 .360 .378
Skip Schumaker: $Free .305 .361 .414
Skippy needs a new publicist
by joker24 on Sep 19, 2008 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no way....
Perez was struggling and I think TLR saw it. Think of all the times this year we have complained about “how in the hell does Larussa not see he is struggling with command”….
I think Tony wanted to secure a win and he felf more comfortable with Motte becaue he figured he would come in and attack the zone. Motte has 1 BB so far (sample size small)…
I don’t know, why do people always find a way to complain…. I mean it was odd, but the Card have lost how many in a row? I was happy to see the move worked and the team won.
by ICbirdfan on Sep 19, 2008 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
??? Losing the WS to the Sox ???
What am I missing/
by Woodwork on Sep 19, 2008 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Name the last 2 teams to win the World Series
after winning 100 regular season games.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 19, 2008 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would be happy
if the Cards just made it to the postseason next year.
by saladdays on Sep 19, 2008 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
NY NY
W Sox and Angels got close with 99 wins, but the Yanks in 1998 and Mets in 1986 were the last 2, Yanks had 114 W and Mets has 108 W
Also, Cards in 04, Yanks in 03 and Braves in 99 all had over 100 Ws and lost in the WS.
This all goes to show that the Postseason is crapshoot. The only thing we as fans can hope for from management is to give us lots of Ws and make it to the postseason after that it is in the hands of luck, who’s hot and who’s not.
by StLHugo on Sep 19, 2008 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup
1998 and 1986. And 1986 was only a win because Bill Buckner couldn’t field a ground ball.
2 teams with 100 wins in the last 22 years have won the World Series. I’m beginning to think 100 wins isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 19, 2008 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Crapshoot
again the post season is a crapshoot more now then ever. Winning 100 games can show you how good your team is, but it doesn’t guarantee that that team won’t slump, they had to loose 62 games somewhere. The stros got relaly hot at the end of Aug and start of Sep to the point where no one, not even the Cubs was beating them, does that mean the Stros are the better team? I doubt it. But if that had been Oct the Stros might be flying a WS banner right now. Who gets hot at the right time is what wins the WS nothing more and nothing less.
by StLHugo on Sep 19, 2008 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only b/c Buckner couldn't field a GB?
That only let in the winning run. Stanley did a fair job blowing it before that. There was also still a game 7 after that. Now, Buckner had a big hand in all of that, but the Sawx still had their chances in that one.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Sep 19, 2008 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But...
…I see your larger point…Winning 100 is a better indication of a team’s “goodness” then winning a World Series.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Sep 19, 2008 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not to mention
Seattle’s 116 win season
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
by Alxfritz on Sep 19, 2008 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
105
that team was insanely good.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
by Alxfritz on Sep 19, 2008 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Besides one month
that was the most frustrating team this decade.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
by Alxfritz on Sep 19, 2008 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But that one month more than made up for the rest
by Woodwork on Sep 19, 2008 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
tbh
I have more fond memories of 2004
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com
www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Sep 19, 2008 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mere Details
Focus on the first 172 games the team played that year, not the last four.
by lightbulb on Sep 19, 2008 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tanking it?
Pretty strong words. We clearly aren’t making the playoffs, so really, why does it matter who plays? IMO it is time to reward some guys, maybe see what a couple youngsters can do, and overall, just have fun without being ridiculous (ie, Molina in the OF, Albert catching, or Wainright starting at SS).
by SoonerfanTU on Sep 19, 2008 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
putting Miles and Kennedy in the OF
doesn’t qualify as being ridiculous — particularly w/ youngsters like Barton and Stavinoha on the bench?
by chuckb on Sep 19, 2008 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Motte > Perez
I’ll say it if nobody else will. I also like Motte more as a closer going forward. His stuff is electric, and he seems to have better control (of the fastball at least).
by SoonerfanTU on Sep 19, 2008 1:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Of course you will say it if no one else will
you blasted him for having just one pitch and his fastball simply being straight. That major league hitters can time up a fastball, no matter how fast.
Not that it is the contrarian position to support Motte and Tony brought him in, you are all over it.
Not particularly surprising.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 19, 2008 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't make stuff up.....
Yea, I said he likely wasn’t ready b/c he only had one pitch. I never said anything about the “straightness” of it.
And why does me saying Motte is doing better than Perez a reflection on Motte? Maybe it just means that Perez isn’t as good as many of us were hoping. What has he done in his last 3-4 save opps?
by SoonerfanTU on Sep 19, 2008 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you can say it
no one else will because no one else believes it. and werent you the one saying he shouldnt have been brought up cause he only has one pitch?
by FunkeeC on Sep 19, 2008 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Motte vs. Perez
Well “right” now, Motte may seem better.
1. He is very aggressive
2. He has better control of his fastball (neither he nor Perez have very good command)
3. He really lacks a secondary pitch, therefore he is aggressive with his fastball
Control= throwing strikes
Commnad= locating your fastball throughout the strike zone
I think Perez has the better stuff going forward. Perez has a secondary pitch he can throw for a strike and his fastball has better natural movement. I am not going to knock Motte for throwing more straight at this time, as his ball seems to have a bit of jump at the end. So it may be straight but it does have some deception to it.
Perez just need to find his release point. Last night his ball was moving away too much too fast. Hitters saw it asd laid off it. Perez has not thrown since facing Pitt and he was definitely rusty, hell why wouldn’t he be. He was wild in the minors I am guessing he gets a bit rusty when he has not seen a lot of action.
I would not jump the gun either way about Motte or Perez. Just enjoy the fact the Cards apper to have two solid late inning arms right now.
by ICbirdfan on Sep 19, 2008 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anybody else concerned
that Perez no longer throws his fastball up in the zone? A low fastball with no sink is not that great of a pitch. He was more dominating when he was bringing the high heat.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Sep 19, 2008 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
one thing to keep in mind with perez, though, is that he has thrown a lot of innings this year, coming uop on 70 IIRC. He’s most likely going through the same kind of fatigue issues as KMC.
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
by SleepyCA on Sep 19, 2008 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He has thrown his fastball up in the zone.
I agree with Sleepy, seems like Perez and Motte have been a bit slower on the gun lately. Maybe just wearing down a bit at this point.
I think Perez’s issue is his he doesn’t seem to have the proper release point to effectively locate his fastball.
by ICbirdfan on Sep 19, 2008 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Disagree
Perez will be better. Motte’s fast ball is better. But Perez’s slider is better. And both Perez’s slider and his Curve will improve.
Perez didn’t have the mound presence yesterday. He has had it in the past. He needs that also.
Yesterday Motte was better. I don’t think that Motte is better than Perez.
by Evilfrog on Sep 19, 2008 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
From today's daily Baseball Prospectus e-mail:
STAT OF THE DAY
Bottom 5 2008 NL Relievers, by WXRL
Player, Team, WXRL
Jason Isringhausen, SLN, -2.3
Luis Ayala, WAS, -1.3
Joe Thatcher, SDN, -0.9
Blaine Boyer, ATL, -0.9
Franquelis Osoria, PIT, -0.8
Lou Brock loves Lamp.
by birdjam on Sep 19, 2008 1:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
nice
surprising that he only cost us 4.6 wins, though.
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
by SleepyCA on Sep 19, 2008 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
whoops
I was thinking WPA – WXRL is “wins above/below replacement, adjusted for quality of hitter”. so he only cost us 2.3 games, not 4.6, worse than a replacement level pitcher would have been.
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
by SleepyCA on Sep 19, 2008 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

by 

















