A Run At Signing Pujols

by FutureMan on Sep 18, 2008 9:31 PM EDT

My interest in this first sparked when during the thread today lboros opined that 09 might not be a competitive year either. Then some asked the question if not 09, then when? I have a theory that the answer to that question is "not anytime soon." Hang in there with me, i'm not trying to be pessimistic.

What I'm saying is that I don't think winning is going to be the number 1 goal for the next couple of years. I think the re-signing of Albert is the club's #1 goal, winning will be icing (especially since we won the title in 06).

During tonight's game Dan and Al started talking about A-Rod's contract and how its not likely that the Cards will sign Albert to a contract of that size when the time comes. However, we all know the kind of backlash there will be if Albert leaves after 2011.

It got me thinking, is that DeWitt's plan all along? I started looking into some of our contracts and low and behold every long term contract we have as of right now expires after 2011, same as Albert's. Carp's, Wainwright's, and Yadi's contracts all expire then. Coincidence? Maybe. I guess we will see this off season based on the lengths of the contracts that are offered to free agents.

I'm starting to think that the "building from the inside" philosophy is an attempt to have good, cost-controlled players at a majority of the positions so that we can pay our first baseman $30-$35 mil a year.

We are already looking at Rasmus in CF, Wallace at 3B (hopefully), Kozma at SS, Niko at 2B, and Anderson at C as the core of your 2011 team. We also should have more players to fill out RF and CF.

If they are paying those 5 position players close to league minimum they should definitely have the payroll to make a run at Albert. They can also try to use that as leverage for Albert to take a lesser contract. As in, if you take less money we can afford to sign your teammates.

I mean, if we are talking about A-Rod's contract being the starting point, we could be looking at a contract of 11 years, $350 million. For a mid-market team you almost have to be paying the majority of your team league minimum to afford that.

Again, i still think the club will want to win but my suspicion is that they won't bring on players/contracts that hinder their chance of re-signing Albert. Hopefully our young kids will play well enough till then so that we have a happy medium between trying to win now and signing Albert.

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350/11

is just crazy talk in my opinion.

We all saw what happened with the Rangers, when a mid market team signed one player to a crazy big contract. If anyone is worth it, of course it’s Pujols, but I’m still betting that while they may be clearing space to have to give him a raise, I would bet the two sides could come to agreement at somewhere between 18-24M per year. At least I hope so. The idea of 30M+ per year for any player is just awful.

And you may be right on those players potentially all being up by 2011, but the minors are still too much of a crapshoot when it comes to who will become a big league player. If you told me three of those five would be valuable MLB calibre players, I’d jump at that in an instant. All five? That might be dreaming (although I’d love for it not to be)

by mtalken on Sep 18, 2008 10:09 PM EDT reply actions

Seriously?

11 yrs, $30M-$35M per year? I’m all for speculating, but seriously? Letting everybody walk just to sign Albert? Is that actually what you think the organization is planning for?

I think the backlash would be much worse going 10 yrs without fielding a competitive team.

by Knighttime on Sep 18, 2008 10:42 PM EDT reply actions

comparable

i’m saying that a-rod got 11 years $275 mil. he is signed through his age 42 season. pujols is considered at least as good as a-rod if not better. in his contract year 2011 he will be 32 like a-rod. accounting for how good pujols, numbers will be in 2011 and the continuing escalation of the market i really don’t think 11 years 300-350 million is out of the realm of possibility.

"Sorry about him, he's dealing with being an inker. " - Chasing Amy

by FutureMan on Sep 18, 2008 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions

market

I just see a huge discrepency between the MLB market, and the Yankees market. We are still talking about the St Louis Cardinals, and no way do I foresee $30M+ for one player – not even Albert.
$20M yes, $25M at the highest but certainly not for 11 years. Sure the market is up at the moment, but it might not stay up for the next 10 years (i do hope it does however).

What if his body falls apart like Frank Thomas’s did at 32 yrs old and Ken Griffey Jr at 30? No, I can’t get on board with the idea that’s those numbers are a remote possibility.

At the very largest I can see a contract that is half way between Beltran and A-Rod which would be more like 8 yrs $197M ($24.625M avg) – but honestly do not think it will be that high or that long.

Albert is a comparable player to A-Rod no question, but the Cardinals are not comparable to the Yankees in terms of revenue and payroll.

by Knighttime on Sep 19, 2008 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions

its not just the yankees market

its the yankees, red sox, angels, dodgers, and the cubs market. there are a few of the teams that would be willing to match A-Rod’s contract for Albert i think.

i’m not saying its the smart move but it seems to me that dewitt will need what he has to to keep Albert in STL.

"Sorry about him, he's dealing with being an inker. " - Chasing Amy

by FutureMan on Sep 19, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Assuming Dewitt

is still signing the checks in 2011…

by mojo7102 on Sep 19, 2008 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions

very true

"Sorry about him, he's dealing with being an inker. " - Chasing Amy

by FutureMan on Sep 19, 2008 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Yankees are in a different ballpark

I’m with you on the concepts. Market increasing, teams with growing payrolls, Pujols being a wanted commodity.I get all that. But, I’m going to have to disagree about teams willing to match A-Rod’s contract and the Cards needing to go 11yr $350 to sign Albert long term.

The Yankees spend SOOOO much more than anyone else. They are $71M above 2nd place, and were $52M above 2nd place in 2007. The Cards in 11th place at $100M are “only” $38M behind the 2nd place Tigers – and the tigers are $71M behind the Yankees. Dude, that’s a TON of jack.

I believe the Cards could have a $150M payroll if they wanted to, but that is not good business. I like the way they have resisted handing out monster contratcs to FA’s the likes of AJ Burnett, Barry Zito. Hell, even 4yrs $40M was too much for Suppan and we passed on it – i say good, that you for prudent management. 11yrs $350M for Albert – I do not see Cardinals mgmt paying that.

This is a list of the top 15 opening day payrolls for 2008, and the tthe change from 2007:

Rank(PY)Team 2008 Payroll 2007 Payroll Change
1 (1) Yankees $209,081,579 $195,229,045 $13,852,534
2 (9) Tigers $138,685,197 $95,180,369 $43,504,828
3 (3) Mets $138,293,378 $117,915,819 $20,377,559
4 (2) Red Sox $133,440,037 $143,526,214 ($10,086,177)
5 (4) White Sox $121,152,667 $109,680,167 $11,472,500
6 (5) Angels $119,216,333 $109,251,333 $ 9,965,000
7 (8) Cubs $118,595,833 $ 99,937,000 $18,658,833
8 (6) Dodgers $118,536,038 $108,704,524 $ 9,831,514
9 (7) Mariners $117,993,982 $106,516,833 $11,477,149
10(13) Braves $102,424,018 $ 89,492,685 $12,931,333
11(12) Cardinals $100,624,450 $ 90,286,823 $10,337,627
12(17) Blue Jays $ 98,641,957 $ 79,925,600 $18,716,357
13(14) Phillies $ 98,269,881 $ 89,368,214 $ 8,901,667
14(15) Astros $ 88,930,415 $ 87,759,500 $ 1,170,915
15(18) Brewers $ 81,004,167 $ 71,986,500 $ 9,017,667

by Knighttime on Sep 19, 2008 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions

if he wants A-Rod money....

he WILL get A-Rod money. and he’ll deserve it. if every player was a free-agent after this year, Pujols would get the fattest contract. He knows it, his agent knows it, the cardinals know it….If he wants 30M+ he will get it. If the cardinals don’t pay it the yankees will.

Nick Stavinoah = John Gall

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Sep 20, 2008 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions

I can see a 6 year extension at 25-30M

but 11 years? I do not think so.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Sep 18, 2008 10:48 PM EDT reply actions

11 years that is rediculous

I know its Albert Pujols but there is no garuntee that he won’t be the next edmonds rolen carpenter mulder izzy where there comes a time and the nagging injuries like the elbow come and bite him and you’re paying him 30 mil to be just another avarage player

by bearcatcardfan on Sep 19, 2008 3:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Extension

Would it be better for the Cardinals to start talking extension while contracts are still being handed out in this range for a player of his caliber? With the more dollars going to average players in the present, signing him now before 35 mil per year is generally accepted as the norm for him would be for fiscally wise yes?

by flipthebird on Sep 19, 2008 12:28 AM EDT reply actions

by him I mean players of his caliber

by flipthebird on Sep 19, 2008 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions

i pretty much agree with knightfan above

excercise his option for 2011, and then extend for 8 years at 200 million
which would make him a card until 2019

Pujols is the greatest Cardinal in my lifetime.

by bigcardsfan5 on Sep 19, 2008 4:19 AM EDT reply actions

I have to wonder

If not fielding a playoffs-competitive team would affect Albert’s decision.

2011 = older daughter is 13, son is 10. Sadly that’s one of the better times to move, in that transition from primary school.

I can’t be sure about Albert’s future value until I see how he comes out of elbow surgery. Still, you can’t grow work ethic; he’ll be a valuable player no matter what.

- Y.2.2

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And they absolutely will not stop, ever, until there is one on every Major League roster." - HBT

by Yadi2Second on Sep 19, 2008 9:51 AM EDT reply actions

I won't even touch the Albert.....

part of this post.

But my biggest question is why do people assume build from within means having an entire roster, or darn close to it, of home grown talent? I haven’t looked at any other teams, but I’d be shocked if most teams had a percentage much higher than we currently do.

by SoonerfanTU on Sep 19, 2008 10:22 AM EDT reply actions

don't have to be home grown

my guess is that they would just want them to be cost controlled. the brewers for one have that kind of set up. hardy, weeks, braun, fielder, kaplar, hart, and a couple of their pitchers are all cost controlled. the rays and the athletics are the same way.

imho, that is the business model dewitt wants to follow.

"Sorry about him, he's dealing with being an inker. " - Chasing Amy

by FutureMan on Sep 19, 2008 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Re-Signing Pujols

One thing to consider about the size and amount of contracts that A-Rod got and Pujosl will get are positions. When Rodriguez got his contract extension, he was playing short stop, which is one of the hardest positions to fill with a player who has a great bat and doesn’t leave much to be desired as far as the glove goes. First base is a lot easier to fill. Heck, even Adam Dunn is doing decently in Arizona despite people labeling him as a “bad defense, high K” kind of guy.

by AP5 on Sep 19, 2008 11:40 PM EDT reply actions

I think a lot of people are underestimating....

Remember this is a pro athlete…not just any pro athlete, arguably the best in his league. He’ll expect to be paid like it and that means A-Rod’s contract is the starting point. It might go up a little or down a little, but it won’t be a 5 or 6 year deal. It will be a MONSTER contract. 8 for 200 sounds fine to us, but albert and his agent are gonna wonder why its 2 years and $75 Million less than A-Rod’s deal.

Nick Stavinoah = John Gall

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Sep 20, 2008 1:44 PM EDT reply actions

A rod plays 3b and doesn't get hurt?

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Sep 20, 2008 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions

a-rod...

also doesn’t perform in the post-season

Nick Stavinoah = John Gall

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Sep 20, 2008 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't think the fact that he plays 3B matters..

do 3B on average make more than 1B?

Nick Stavinoah = John Gall

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Sep 20, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions

3b is a more difficult position defensively. If A-Rod only played 1B it’s possible that he wouldn’t even be a yankee.

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Sep 20, 2008 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions

yea...but only because they already pay

Giambi $23,428,571 to man first. Which, that amount, shows even further how much Pujols can/will demand.

Nick Stavinoah = John Gall

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Sep 20, 2008 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions

El Hombre

may be worth $25-30 million right now, but who’s to say by 2011 his elbow hasn’t caught up to him. He’s also a different personality than A-Rod. Remaining a Cardinal his entire career, like Stan the Man, might be more important to him. He may not require us to shell out an other worldly contract for him. As of right now, I can’t see Pujols walking away from the Cards just because we don’t offer him as much as A-Rod got from the Yankees.

Delgado an MVP candidate!........seriously!? Wait Ryan Howard is now too!?...Ah WTF?!?!

by RunninRedbird on Sep 20, 2008 3:26 PM EDT reply actions