breaking records
the brewers’ firing of ned yost is a desperate move, but i think it’s also a rational one. that team clearly needed to change the dynamic. they were flat-out noncompetitive vs the phillies last weekend, getting outscored 26-10; they were nearly as bad against the mets, getting outscored 19-9 in a three-game sweep at the start of this month, and worse against the cubs at the end of july, getting outscored 31-11 in a four-game sweep at home. so they’re 0-11 record in their most recent matchups against teams they’re will have to go through to reach the world series --- or, in the case of the cubs (whom they will play 6 times in the next couple weeks), to reach the postseason. they’ve scored more than 4 runs only once this month, and yielded fewer than 5 only 4 times. i don’t know how much of this is yost’s fault, but they obviously needed to act with urgency. in two weeks their two best players, sabathia and sheets, will be gone.
as i gazed at the brewers’ stat page, jeff suppan’s line caught my eye. was it a mistake not to re-sign him? his line the last two years, compared to braden looper’s:
| ERA | W-L | IP | H | BB | SO | HR | WHIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| supps | 4.72 | 22-21 | 377.1 | 437 | 134 | 197 | 45 | 1.513 |
| loops | 4.48 | 24-24 | 354 | 377 | 93 | 178 | 46 | 1.328 |
the brewers have paid $20m for that production so far, and still owe suppan another $20m. did they spend wisely? were the cardinals cheap to let him walk (as many people wailed at the time) or just smart?
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
here’s a tidbit about our own team. albert pujols has 42 doubles this season, his first season of 40 or more since 2004. in his first four seasons pujols was a doubles machine, averaging 47 a year; in the ensuing four years (including this one) he has averaged about 38, with a low of 33 a couple years ago. his career total is now 340; the all-time career record is 792, held by tris speaker. the national league record is held by pete rose, with 746 doubles; the franchise leader is stan musial, with 725. what are albert’s chances of breaking any of these records?
let’s begin with this fact: only one player in history has hit more doubles through age 28 than albert --- joe medwick, who had 383 doubles after his age 28 season. musial had 302 doubles at this point in his career; speaker had 282, and rose had only 218, more than 100 fewer than albert. but rose hit an astounding 528 doubles after age 28, and speaker had 510. pujols will need to pile up about 450 doubles after his age 28 season to catch speaker, and about 400 to catch rose; how likely is that? well, only 4 players in history have hit more than 450 doubles after the age of 28: speaker, rose, craig biggio, and sam rice. none of these guys hit as many as 300 doubles before age 28, so if albert pulls it off he’ll be the first. roughly 20 players have hit more than 400 after age 28 --- the exact number isn’t clear, because B-R’s list cuts off after 10 guys.
according to the bill james projection toy, albert has about a 13 percent chance, or 1 in 8, of setting a new all-time record in doubles. that estimate is based on the assumption that albert will finish this year with 45 doubles (nice round number). based on the same assumption, the toy gauges his chances of setting a new national league record at 20 percent, and his chances of setting a new franchise record at 24 percent.
and what about the home-run record? his odds have dimmed greatly ever since pitchers stopped throwing him strikes. after 4 consecutive seasons of 40+ homers, albert hasn’t made a serious run at the figure the last couple of years. his career total stands at 315 as of this morning; let’s assume he hits another 2 dingers between now and the end of the schedule, winding up the season with 35 and a career total of 317. he’d then need almost 450 homers after age 28 to top bonds’s mark, and somewhat more than that to top whatever number alex rodriguez ends up with. only three players have hit 450 homers after age 28: bonds, aaron, and ruth. six players have hit 400 or more homers after age 28, but half of them (bonds, sosa and palmeiro) were steroid cheats; the other three were ruth, aaron, and mays. according to the toy (and assuming a 2008 total of 35 homers), he only has a 7 percent chance of catching bonds (1 in 12). if he were to break out with 45 dingers next year, he’d double his odds (per the toy) to 15 percent . . . . his chance of reaching 800 homers is down to 3 percent.
the toy assesses his chances of breaking the franchise record for homers (musial’s 475) at 97 percent --- assuming, of course, that he remains with the cardinals beyond 2011. he has about a 39 percent chance of reaching 3000 hits and a 9 percent chance of breaking the career RBI record held by hank aaron.
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130 comments
Comments
I say we trade him for Bobby Bonilla
Kosuke Fukudome: $55 million.262 .362 .381
Skip Schumaker: $Free .306 .364 .417
Skippy needs a new publicist
by joker24 on Sep 16, 2008 9:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
this is why teams need to throw albert strikes
they’re messing with history here!
by mattybobo on Sep 16, 2008 9:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good post lboros
At what age did the toy have Albert stop playing? All of those guys listed above played till thier 40’s and beyond. He has 12 years to go…… barring injury….. first eight have been “WOW”.
I looked at those doubles numbers myself a few months back and thought Albert could wind up with over 800 if he could stay healthy and play till 40.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Sep 16, 2008 9:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Also a note on A-Rod
He turns 35 next year and if he has a good year, will hit his 600th home run…… but I wonder if he has the “drive” to stay in the game long enough to go after Bonds record.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Sep 16, 2008 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't his contract
have him locked up until he’s like 43?
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
by Alxfritz on Sep 16, 2008 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Contract
He has those “historical milestone” bonuses written into his new deal, so that’ll give him incentive (if he needs more).
by Cardinal70 on Sep 16, 2008 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
re: Suppan
Put him with the Cardinals defense and he is better than Looper but he would not be that much better to warrant $40 mil. I think the Cards made the right choice there…
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
by nomar34 on Sep 16, 2008 9:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
toss up
Supps is gong to cost MIL $25 over the next 2 years. Looper will probably want, and get, a 3-year deal from someone for $9-12M a year. If they are indeed comparable, Supps might work out to be the better deal over the next two years. Plus, there’s that postseason thing Supps seems to have…….
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Sep 16, 2008 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gotta
get into the postseason first… and it looks like the Brew Crew is repeating their gag-job of a year ago.
lboros, I agree with your assertion that the Brewers gotta “change the dynamic”… but what the heck can Dale Sveum do with just 12 games left?? Given the gift MLB gave the Cubbies against Houston, I think the Cubs will be “loose” and the Brewers will be grinding sawdust out of their bats… I do not see this ending well for Milwaukee…
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
by The Ol Goaler on Sep 16, 2008 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That is too bad.....
Couldn’t wish it on a nicer bunch of guys. rolleyes
Looks like the CC deal might not have been worth it afterall. I know they likely had NO chance without him, but they could have used Laporta(sp) to get a SP for next year. I know they will likely lose CC and Sheets, not sure if Soup is a FA or not. That’ll leave them with what…..Parra and Bush? Ha!
by SoonerfanTU on Sep 16, 2008 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yovani gallardo could be ace-like
depending on how badly the knee injury affected him; he should be back next year as well.
With Fielder likely leaving soon, fisheyes is going to find himself the face of a losing franchise for a long, long time if they don’t make the post-season this year.
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
by SleepyCA on Sep 16, 2008 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess I'm the only one here
pulling for the Brewers, huh? I know many here got wrapped up in the shirt-unbuttoning and Bill Hall staring at homers the way Pujols does and Miles did, but they haven’t been to the playoffs in 26 years and I hope they make it.
All that hate that was once spewed at the Cubs now seems to be reserved for the Brewers and I guess I don’t get why. If it’s all about the shirts and Bill Hall’s homers — well, I just don’t get it but I guess we all have our biases. Probably some here don’t get why I have such contempt for the Astros.
by chuckb on Sep 16, 2008 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i really have contempt for the
Cubs, Brewers, Astros, Pirates and Reds. Im not picky:
Cubs: obvious reason
Brews: shirt untucking, home run staring, and Ryan Braun
Astros: been our biggest rival over the last decade
Pirates: because all of a sudden we cant beat them
Reds: well i just didn’t want to leave them out and for them not realizing how good Adam Dunn was!
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
by nomar34 on Sep 16, 2008 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you, H.C.
I wasn’t crazy about their antics, either, but I tried to attribute at least part of that to the exuberance of a young team that didn’t yet learn how to win with class, the way the Cardinals have done.
For what it’s worth, I don’t think the managerial change will make any difference…changes this late in the season, well, I don’t know…the Phillies may have just enough momentum to finish the deal.
by tbell61 on Sep 16, 2008 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's a good managerial change
but about twelve months too late.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
by Alxfritz on Sep 16, 2008 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Guess something was just off.....
I wonder what made Yost such a bad manager?
He studied under Bobby Cox, and Cox has not really been categorized like Yost.
I sometimes wonder what makes a manager good vs. bad at the MLB level. I understand lower levels but once you get to MLB, what makes guys good vs. bad….
by ICbirdfan on Sep 16, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm indifferent about the Brewers
Couldn’t care less if they do or don’t make the playoffs. However, if they do make it to the playoffs, I’ll pull for them as my National League team. I’d much rather them make the World Series than the cubs, Mets or Phillies.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
by Tackle Box on Sep 16, 2008 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm the same way
one of the big reasons I hated them was because of Yost. Now that he is gone, I probably wouldn’t mind rooting for them. I would think Sveum will keep their showboating turned way down. I think a lot of thier antics were done because Yost didn’t care about it. I have a feeling Sveum and Yount won’t let them show up other teams the way Yost did.
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
by KYCards on Sep 16, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's kind of my point
Look at the options — Cubs, Mets, Phils, Dodgers. Do any of us really want to pull for any of them? The Brewers are young and act foolish sometimes but I’d still much rather see them win than any of the others.
by chuckb on Sep 16, 2008 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes,
the shirt-untucking upset me very much. The last think I want is for the MLB to turn into the NBA. I will never root for a team with Mike Cameron again, and this year I will actively root against the brewers because of this.
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
by SleepyCA on Sep 16, 2008 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Brewers don't bother me.
I don’t know why, but I never really thought anything of the untuck thing..
If they make the play-offs I will root for them over any NL team for sure, possibly even AL.
1. Twins (I hope the Twins make the play-offs)
2. Brewers
3. Rays
by ICbirdfan on Sep 16, 2008 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok
To each his own. I still don’t get it though. It’s after the game. They’re enjoying their win…whatever. It’s not like they’re doing the pile-on after every game or spewing champagne or anything. Maybe I don’t care b/c I don’t care about the NBA but a lot of people are like you, Sleepy, and are really bothered by it.
by chuckb on Sep 16, 2008 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How can people hate the Brewers?
The Cubs play “Go Cubs Go” after every home win… How is that not annoying or “un-baseball like”?
I really don’t care and find the song annoying but think it’s cool the Cubs have started their own little tradition….. I have been to a game at Wrigley this year in which the Cubs won. It is amazing how no one leaves untill they play that song, and the place is loud as hell and filled with energy. It’s cool.
FYI I want the Twins to win the World Series, but they have to make the play-off first. If the twins were to win people are going to be pulling a major league, “who are these fucking guys”
by ICbirdfan on Sep 16, 2008 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
because the brewers came into OUR PARK and did it.
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
by SleepyCA on Sep 16, 2008 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's what bugged me the most about them
it wasn’t how they acted, it’s how they acted in our park. they might as well just have given everyone the finger. they are a young, cocky team that hasn’t won anything, yet acts like they’ve won back-to-back WS.
BUT that still does not move them up on my S list passed the stros & flubs. those two teams are our biggest rivals. and i really can not stand anything about them, their fans, parks, city’s, etc. until the Brew Crew actually wins something, i view them as pretty much an annoyance. they are not harmless, but they aren’t really that big of a threat to the Cardinals.
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
by gdm426 on Sep 16, 2008 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Suppan
Can’t pitch in the post season if you don’t make it.
by llabyellov on Sep 16, 2008 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what i meant was
Looper was a better value over the last two years because he was roughly the same production wise but a lot cheaper plus we are not on the hook after this year. Going forward is a different ball of wax.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
by nomar34 on Sep 16, 2008 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
better than Looper?
arguable. Here are their respective FIPs for the last 2 years:
Looper — 4.82 (2007), 4.77 (2008)
Suppan — 4.30 (2007), 5.38 (2008)
by FIP, Suppan was half a run better last year but Looper is .61 runs better this year. Seems like they’re about the same over the 2 year period. I will agree (obviously) that the Cards made the right choice.
by chuckb on Sep 16, 2008 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yost got fired because
the middle of his lineup stopped hitting and his bullpen sucked. How is that going to change with a new manager?
by Rick B on Sep 16, 2008 11:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
check BP for a pretty good example
of how a grade a moron Yost is as well. Mind you he has been bad the whole year
by FunkeeC on Sep 16, 2008 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't get it either
but it seems to have made a difference with the Mets.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Sep 16, 2008 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice to be back
I have now formed a visceral hatred of hurricanes with having experienced one for the first time here in East Texas. Pictures can not due that justice. After limbs crashing down and a few shingles blown off the roof I survived. We got my power back Monday and internet today so I count myself as one of the lucky ones. My brother, his wife and daughter fled Houston to her parents house in Huntsville, didn’t help. It was a Cat 1 when it hit there and they still don’t have power. He said the city is rapidly running out of food and gas with people shutting there cars off and pushing them down mile long lines to gas stations with fuel.
I know there are a lot of VEBers in the Houston area and I hope wherever you are now you’re safe. If you did leave I hope you headed west because going north didn’t help. I’m between Shreveport and Dallas and tens of thousands this far north are still without power. I don’t even want to think about what it’s like in Houston right now. Glad to see housoncardinal made it through alright, like to hear an update on what it’s like down there right now. Weird to see one of the highways I used when I was down there last week look like a canal. This whole mess has just been crazy.
"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin
by That's a Winner on Sep 16, 2008 11:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Glad you are okay
hope the rest of our Houston area friends are as well.
When cheese gets its picture taken, what does it say?
by RosevilleRedbird on Sep 16, 2008 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm near Katy
out in West Houston. We’re in pretty good shape — most of my friends have power back now. My wife’s school (she’s a counselor, not a student) is set to re-open tomorrow and mine (teacher, not student) is set to re-open Thursday. We’re very fortunate. If none of you have seen some of the pictures from Galveston, particularly the Bolivar Peninsula — it is completely screwed. Remember the pics from Hurricane Andrew near Miami — very similar. Fortunately, the Bolivar Peninsula isn’t as densely populated as the Homestead, Florida area and most Galvestonians had evacuated. Right now, much of Galveston looks like it was destroyed in WWII.
by chuckb on Sep 16, 2008 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Two hours after I typed this
I found out that almost half of Ft. Bend County still has no power and now our schools won’t be open until Monday. I guess the damage in other parts of the county is much worse than it is where I live.
I’ll say this — the stores are barren of anything once frozen or refrigerated. Good luck finding a gallon of milk b/c, as far as I know, it can’t be done.
by chuckb on Sep 16, 2008 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My poor dad.
I am from deep southern Illinois, and my dad works for the local power co-operative here. He volunteered to go to Louisiana and work for 10 days and help the recovery effort from Gustav. The day after he got home, we had 65 mph winds from Ike and there are areas still out of power since Sunday. My dad has basically been working 16-hour days every day since 14 days ago. He is 58 years old, and he can barely move right now.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
by Eckstreem on Sep 16, 2008 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
God bless him
I am very grateful that there are folks like your Dad.
by random on Sep 16, 2008 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's bad in Louisville KY as well.
You wouldn’t think Ike would effect us that much but it sure did or at least had a hand in it. A good portion of Louisville (1/4 of the city) has no power due to 75 mile an hour winds on Sunday. They are saying it could be 7-10 days before everything is back to normal. Even my job is effected. I am not working today because of this, I only worked 2 hrs yesterday. I am lucky because I don’t live in Louisville and I didn’t get the brunt of the windstorm and never lost power.
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
by KYCards on Sep 16, 2008 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chicago suburbs got hit hard too over the weekend
We had 7-10 inches of rain Friday and Saturday and that was before Ike came through on Sunday. It basically poured most of three straight days. I know areas like DesPlaines and just about anywhere near a river is flooded. It obviously wasn’t anything like the Houston/Galvaston area, but there was a lot of havoc wrecked this past weekend.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
by Tackle Box on Sep 16, 2008 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I live the Des Plaines river in the Chicago suburbs,
and we had some flooding on major thoroughfares that don’t figure to be opened until Thursday at the earliest…still, it’s not nearly as bad as what has happened in Texas, but it’s amazing to see how far reaching this hurricane has extended its reach.
by tbell61 on Sep 16, 2008 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You know, I've heard a little of this
but we’re in such myopia here, I really have no idea what’s going on in other parts of the country. The local channels here are “all Houston area, all the time” so I didn’t realize that other parts of the country were suffering the effects of the remnants of the hurricane. I guess there are people all over the country lacking power, suffering from floods, and who’ve had their homes destroyed by this thing but if I didn’t get on VEB, I’d never know it.
by chuckb on Sep 16, 2008 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is that current?
I noticed the river was up a lot when I came over it this morning. I was just down infront of the Arch friday. The Mississippi has to be up at least 20 feet snice the weekend.
by Evilfrog on Sep 16, 2008 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That is today supposedly
I got on KSDK
by StLHugo on Sep 16, 2008 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's the Arch?
Wow! The more I read, the worse I hear it is in other parts of Houston but it’s not that bad where I live. Sounds like a lot of people need a lot of help all over the place!
by chuckb on Sep 16, 2008 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where abouts are you in the Houston area?
I’m assuming you’re north of the city but I’m not sure. My aunt and uncle and my cousin and her husband live in the Lake Jackson area and I know they had to evacuate. They didn’t have much damage though, I think a tree fell on my aunt and uncles deck but that was the big part.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
by Tackle Box on Sep 16, 2008 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The steps
I don’t know if you have been to the Arch before but in it is fairly high up above river level and those steps are usually a bit above river level. The Mississippi is expected to crest today and this is the 3rd time this year that the President Casino had to close because of high water (their ramps get put under water so no one can safely board).
by StLHugo on Sep 17, 2008 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
IL Side
On the IL side of StL we didn’t get too much damage but lots of the corn fields have been flattened by the wind. Amazing that Ike hit with such force this far up I can only imagine what Houston looks like. From pure storm damage I would say Ike is worse than Katrina, Katrina was so bad, at least in NO, because of the post storm flooding.
by StLHugo on Sep 16, 2008 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's going
to be a long while before things start getting back to normal around here. The damage was so widespread, the US 59 corridor east of you seemed to get it the worst inland. Livingston, Lufkin and Nacogdoches were hit so hard that their weather reporting stations haven’t been sending a report to the local news for their forecast and current temps. It was still a major tropical storm when the eye went straight through Tyler. The backside of the storm seemed to bring the biggest punch, not that the first half was much better. On the bright side we can find milk here, that and $4.50 gas.
"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin
by That's a Winner on Sep 16, 2008 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, lots of damage reported all over
It seems really odd to me hearing of 65-75 mph winds in Louisville, S. Illinois, etc. when about the worst we had here in western Arkansas were 40-50 mph. The center of the storm (I believe it was still, officially a tropical storm at that time) passed within 50 miles of my house and I lost a couple of small branches. There were a few trees down around here, but not many and my power didn’t even flicker that I noticed. Lucky me. Hope everyone makes a more orderly and timely recovery than we saw with Katrina.
by ArkansasTravs on Sep 17, 2008 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll say it again
if we go on a Rox-tober like 13-0 run to finish out the season, we will likely make the playoffs.
Cardinals: 13-0 = 91 Wins
Phillies: 8-4 = 91 Wins
Brewers: 8-4 = 91 Wins
Houston: 11-2 = 91 Wins
Ugh, that hurts to read. Man, we really screwed the pooch these last 2 weeks.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 16, 2008 11:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
im starting to agree with you
But it was one hell of ride wasn’t it?
by Evilfrog on Sep 16, 2008 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Woah, I just realized we don't have to catch the Phillies
we just have to catch the Mets.
Mets have 4 left vs Cubs, 3 left vs Florida.
Mets have to go 8-5 to get to 91 wins. So, I guess I should stop worrying about the Phillies cakewalk schedule and focus on the Mets (who are struggling to beat the dredges of the NL East).
It’s Gonna Happen!
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 16, 2008 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we cant beat the F'ing Pirates!
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
by nomar34 on Sep 16, 2008 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How does the toy
assess the chances of Albert staying with the Cards beyond 2011?
I don’t have time at the moment to go back and check, but I don’t recall a lot of anguish on this board when Suppan signed with the Brewers. More like goodbye, thanks for the memories, and good luck. (My memory could be faulty.) The contract just didn’t seem like one the Cards should match. Still, I also don’t recall many people saying Looper would all but equal Suppan’s two-year performance. Pretty interesting comparison, lboros. Interesting post all around.
by Youneverknow on Sep 16, 2008 12:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Letting Suppan Go...
Letting Suppan go was not a bad idea, and I agreed with it at the time. If anything, the Cardinals have been too eager to committ to long term deals that end up coming back to bite them (Edmonds, Rolen, Carpenter). I love our stars (Edmonds), and I love our solid players (Suppan, Eckstein), but every player eventually hits a point where his production is not worth what he can get on the market, and you need to make sure you’re not the one paying it.
On the other hand, finding a replacement for someone you correctly let go is the other half of the problem. Yeah, you can say Looper has been a better value than Suppan, but even with Looper the Cardinals have had serious problems with their rotation that have needed solved for awhile now. For example, in the Cardinals’ park and with their defense, I have trouble believing Suppan would not have been better than Pineiro. Or Kip Wells. Or Mike Maroth. Or Mitchell Boggs. Or what Reyes (under the care of Larussa and Duncan) gave the Cardinals. Or what Clement and Mulder contributed.
by tarakas on Sep 16, 2008 12:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
On Edmonds and Rolen
How did the long-tern deal to Edmonds hurt the team? If you are referring to the 2-year extension for 2007-2008, then yes, that was not too bright. But his original, 7-year deal was great.
And Rolen was great, too, for the first 3-4 years of his deal. I’ll grant that the last year here was not good value – but when that contract was flipped for Glaus, it became a moot point, no?
People love to look at long term deals and say stuff like “Oh, the Cubs are going to love having Soriano playing LF for them 6 years from now when he’s old and sucks.” Well, the bottom line is that if a team wants a superstar player, they are going to have to give him a long term deal. You hope you won’t have to, but most teams accept that they’ll wind up paying the price with the extra years at the end in return for the great years at the begining. Depending on the situation of the team, that can be a sound strategy. To all the “Soriano in 6 years people,” I would say, “yeah, but don’t overlook the tremendous value he’s giving them RIGHT NOW.” (And please, don’t turn this into a thread about Soriano, I have no idea if he’s “earning” his contract to the dollar. It’s just an example off the top of my head.)
With Edmonds the Cards got lucky and really only had 1 sub-par year on his original deal. With Rolen, not so much. But Rolen stands as an example of how a team can wiggle out of such a contract – and frankly, is not all that uncommon.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Sep 16, 2008 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
With Edmonds I Meant the Extension
The original deal was fine.
With Rolen, well, he was great the first two years, 2003 and 2004. In 2005, he put up a .235/.325/.383 line. Rolen’s performance helped sink the 2005 and 2007 Cardinals, and his second half fade in 2006 almost kept the Cards from the post season and their World Series victory. Basically, from 2005-2007, he had one good half season while getting paid $33 million, plus another $4 million they will reportedly pay him in 2010. And they were lucky to dump him for Glaus—Riccardi clearly blew it. I guess you have to decide if the first two good years were worth the 2.5 bad ones and $37 million.
The other problem is you can agree to a contract knowing you will have a few bad years, but you don’t want to do that too often, or you end up with a season where you are spending tens of millions of dollars on several unproductive players, like the the 2007 Cardinals did. (Rolen 11, Edmonds 11, Carpenter 7, Mulder 5, etc.).
If we all know Soriano in year 7 will be a waste of cash, then up the yearly pay to get him to sign for fewer years. I’d much rather try to sign a player for a few million a year more than for an extra year. For example, if a 32 year-old player wants 4 years at $12 million a year, I’d see if he would take 3 years at $15-16 million a year. I’d rather overpay a productive player by $3 million a year for 3 years than pay a worthless player $12 million to sink a team on the field in his last year. You end up with a player you have to play because he is highly paid, but who hurts you with every appearance, and no payroll flexibility to replace him.
by tarakas on Sep 16, 2008 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK
Good points.
but….
“you end up with a season where you are spending tens of millions of dollars on several unproductive players, like the the 2007 Cardinals did. (Rolen 11, Edmonds 11, Carpenter 7, Mulder 5, etc.).” True (even though Edmonds was not on his original deal, so I’m not sure why you’re throwing him in there.)
But (and this happens ALL the time around here) you are looking at the worst-case scenario and/or the downside of the equation. That’s fine. But, do not forget, Rolen and Edmonds were huge contributors to earlier teams, and that wouldn’t have happened without those big contracts. It was necessary to give them the security of a long term deal in order to have them give the Cardinals their best years. I will unquestionably take that occasional off-year with upside down finances in exchange for a run like the Cardainls had this decade.
As for the “fewer years, more cash” strategy – again, good point and I agree in theory. In reality, though, teams have limited cash flow and need to stretch things out. Or, they just might really think that player X can be productive for 4 years, not 3, and they want that last year.
It’s clearly a case-by-case basis, but the bottom line is that a team almost HAS TO dole out a long-tern deal here and there to get the truly elite FAs to sign up. You get the benefit of the good years, but you pay the price with the bad, with the “parachute” of hopefully having a GM good enough to dump the contract at the right time.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Sep 16, 2008 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
On Edmonds...
Sorry.
I was referring to the extension being a bad idea. In an earlier draft of my first post I also included a bit about how unwise it is to make extensions to keep declining stars around but cut it to keep it more on focus. I forgot it was cut when I wrote later posts. My mistake completely.
My original point, before the revision, was teams tend to keep players around longer than they should, whether through long contracts or extensions.
Yeah, teams have limited revenue streams, but overpaying a couple of players by $3 million a year is better than overpaying a washed up 38-year old $12 million.
I guess what worried me about Jocketty was he signed a lot of high risk, high reward players to long term contracts and/or extensions (Rolen, Edmonds, Carpenter). He managed to get several to hit at the same time and it worked, but ugly years were always clearly coming. He hit the jackpot with Edmonds’ first contract, and then like a poor gambler kept playing until the house won. One risk like this is fine, but if you take too many you run the risk of having a year like 2007, where they all bite you at once.
Towards the end, he compounded this by signing aging mediocrities (Kennedy, Encarnacion) to unneeded long-term contracts.
by tarakas on Sep 16, 2008 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Carpenter
You had to resign Carpenter so I would not inlcude him as coming back to bite them category.
by llabyellov on Sep 16, 2008 12:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
we didn't have
to resign Carpenter. He had another year on his deal. We would’ve ended up only having to
pony up some kind of incentive-laden deal had we let it go to free agency. Definitely a poor
decision and one that I didn’t like at the time
by eglasier on Sep 16, 2008 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly...
Carp was signed through 2007, with a club option for 2008. They did not need to sign him until after this season.
In December of 2006 he was given a new contract, giving him raises in 2007 and 2008 (of $3.5 million total) and $33.5 million in 2009-2011 with two season left under Cardinal control.
If they had just stuck to the old contract, there is no way they would have paid him over $40 million from 2008-2011.
by tarakas on Sep 16, 2008 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They (Walt & Dewitt) signed Carp to that HUGE extention
when they did because Walt thought they were going to sign Jason Schmidt at the winter meetings. Walt was trying to make sure Carp knew he was still the “ace” of the staff and wanted to show him with the extention. I can even remember at the time that Walt was not real thrilled they did this but thought it was what should be done since they “thought” they were going to sign Schmidt. Of course the good thing is we didn’t get Schmidt, but the bad thing is we are stuck with Carp’s contract. I guess we dodged a big bullet by Schmidt going to LA. Could you imagine if we did sign Schmidt….that would have been a disaster that would hamper this team even more than they are now.
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
by KYCards on Sep 16, 2008 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How many innings has Schmidt thrown since that contract??
by tbell61 on Sep 16, 2008 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
4 and a third more
Carp – 21.3 innings
Schmidt – 25.6 innings
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Sep 16, 2008 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd call it a wash.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
by Tackle Box on Sep 16, 2008 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah...
I want to stress how while I’m not a fan of Carpenter’s contract, I’m not down on him. He’s has to go through to very rough years, and he has my sympathies.
by tarakas on Sep 16, 2008 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If only we had signed Bonds
Albert would probably have like 45 homers this year…
by saladdays on Sep 16, 2008 12:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And Aaron Miles wouldn't be playing
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 16, 2008 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey Hardcore,
not sure if you are aware of this company, but I thought you might have an interest in this guy: http://www.raresportsfilms.com/baseball.html
He’s in the Chicago area (Naperville is a Western Suburb of Chicago) and he may (or may not) have some ‘85 Cards games. If not ’85, I’m sure he’s got something in his collection of interest. Just sharing a lead, hope he has something you’re interested in!
One day, the dream will come true.
by brianp88 on Sep 16, 2008 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, Doak's probably the biggest collector out there
most of his stuff comes from actual 35 mm footage. His collection is pretty secretive. He had the Larsen game for 10 years before he let anyone know about it.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 16, 2008 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really???
How in the world can you sit on that stuff??
by tbell61 on Sep 16, 2008 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he is afraid MLB will swoop in
and slap him with lawsuits.
He offered MLB AM a copy of the Larsen game for $150,000 (allowing them to make copies and sell it on DVD, internet, etc). They wouldn’t go for it.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 16, 2008 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One other guy you could try...
This fellow is a Cubs fan, (you’ll figure that out right away when you go to his site) but he has tapes of Cubs games from the 80’s, perhaps he has a Cubs/Cards game in his collection…http://ignarski.tripod.com/cubs.html
He doesn’t list what he has on his site, but if you email him, he might trade some stuff for you. Hope it works for you.
One day, the dream will come true.
by brianp88 on Sep 16, 2008 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't expect this comment to be from adiueordie.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
by Tackle Box on Sep 16, 2008 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Since Baseball Musings isn't talking about the Super Tie anymore
I did this quick and dirty run down:
Let’s set the scenerio:
90 Wins. That’s what we will use as the possibility for the Super tie. Could mathematically use 91, but we will give a margin for error.
So here we go:
Mets – 7-6 = 90 Wins
Cardinals: 12-1 = 90 Wins
Phillies: 7-5 = 90 Wins
Brewers: 7-5 = 90 Wins
Houston: 10-3 = 90 Wins
Of course, this is highly improbable but last year the same situation existed and we actually ended up with a one game playoff.
What this would do would create this situation.
The Mets and Phillies would have to play a 1 game playoff to decide who wins the NL East.
After that is decided, the Cardinals, Brewers, Phillies and Astros would have to play a 4 team single elimination tournament to decide the Wild Card winner.
Even if you eliminate the Cardinals, the Super Tie could still happen at 92 wins based on how hot the Astros can get again down the final 2 weeks. The Cubs will have a big part in this. They play the Cardinals 3 times, Brewers 6 times, Mets 4 times. I guess techinically the Cubs could go a highly unlikely 2-12 the rest of the way out and end up at 92 wins to create and even more ridiculous scenerio where the NL Central and East both had to play a division winner playoff game.
Anyways, there is a very good chance that if 1 NL Central team can survive the Wild Card mess and tie the NL East leaders, we will get another 1 game playoff (at least) this year.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 16, 2008 1:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You could throw Florida into the mix as well
They have head to head games with Houston, Philadelphia and New York along with a make up game vs Cinci and a three game set with Wash nats on their schedule…
One day, the dream will come true.
by brianp88 on Sep 16, 2008 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For 90 wins
yay, they are still in it. They’d have to go 13-0. Doing so would give Houston their 3 losses, Philadelphia 3 of their 5 and New York 3 of their 6.
So, yeah. Marlins and Cards (-1), let’s win out baby!
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 16, 2008 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for posting that.. it is an interesting scenero
Here is what I predict.
The Phillies will win the NL East going 8-4
The Mets will win the Wild Card going 7-6
The Brewers will have thier playoff dreams crushed by the Cubs going 4-8
The Astros will go 6-7 missing the wild card.
The Cards will finish 7-6 the final 13 games
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
by KYCards on Sep 16, 2008 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yost Firing/TLR in NY
A friend in Milwaukee told me last night that the reason Ned Yost got fired was that he has been so uptight that he had his players the same way. The man was choking his brains out and the players were the following their manager’s lead. So, he said, he – and much of Milwaukee – were pleased they fired him. They said he did the same thing last September.
I am only reporting what he said, for those interested.
Also, while channel surfing the ballgames last night, who is spotted in the stands at Yankee Stadium but Tony LaRussa! What was that all about? The NY announcers were laughing, saying, “Gee, you’d think with a night off he’d do anything but go watch another baseball game!”
by ccthemovieman on Sep 16, 2008 1:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I posted that last night in the thread.
I figure TLR wants to see a game at Yankee Stadium one more time before it is done. He managed a lot at that place over the years while in the AL. Probably just wanted to say hi to people and take a game in one last time. I believe this is the last homestand for the Yankees and the Cards had a day off so it worked out well.
I was watching Comcast (Sox telecast), and Hawk Harrleson was saying he has know TLR since TLR was a 17 year old kid. Hawk and Darrin Jackson spoke about Larussa for a few minutes, not too much interesting stuff.
by ICbirdfan on Sep 16, 2008 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, that makes sense about TLR
who would appreciate baseball history. But it sure was odd seeing him sit in the seats with the rest of the crowd.
by ccthemovieman on Sep 16, 2008 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
TLR
is still good friends with White Sox chairman Jerry Reinsdorf. Reinsdorf still regets letting then General manger Hawk Harrelson fire TLR.
One day, the dream will come true.
by brianp88 on Sep 16, 2008 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I remember reading about that.....Hawk did not bring it up of course
by ICbirdfan on Sep 16, 2008 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
By the way
Steve Stone will be in the TV booth with Harrelson next year.
Harrelson really annoys me, but I always liked STone. I may have to start watching a few Sox games (since I get all of ’em in HD).
by sdrone on Sep 16, 2008 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow.....
I wondered if the radio gig would lead to TV…. Wonder what will happen to Darrin Jackson.
OMG Hawk Harrelson is very entertaining if you take him for what he is worth. He complains more about umpires than any TV guy in history. He thinks every call goes against the Sox and he just feeds the meat-ball Sox fan stereotype.
I actually like Hawk because I know what I am getting with him. He actually has some very interesting stuff/stories at times but you have to sit through a bunch of crap to get it.
I really like Stone, I think he is outstanding.
by ICbirdfan on Sep 16, 2008 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Steve Stone was almost as big of a "Soundtrack to my summers" as a kid
as Buck and Shannon were. Back in the 80’s the Cubs games on WGN were the only games on TV during the week (other than the Braves) and as a baseball fan I had no choice but to watch the Cubs A LOT back in the day. I will always have a soft spot for Steve Stone. I still can’t believe the Cubs ran him and Chip out of town. That was completely classless of them. It’s good to see Steve has a full time gig again.
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
by KYCards on Sep 16, 2008 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He not only thinks every call goes against the Sox
he actually thinks it’s a conspiracy.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
by Tackle Box on Sep 16, 2008 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's strange
I can’t really see Steve Stone going along with all the “put ’em on the board” antics though. that would be kind of strange.
I have a love/hate relationship with the Cardinals' middle relief corps.
by madding on Sep 16, 2008 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he doesn't
but they worked really well together last season.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
by Tackle Box on Sep 16, 2008 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stone and Jackson are switching places
Assuming Jackson accepts the radio job. If he doesn’t, he’ll be looking for work.
I doubt Stone yells along with the “yes” thing. Has Jackson always done it? I didn’t think he had.
by sdrone on Sep 16, 2008 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I predicted that the day they hired him to do radio
DJ is horrible and last year when Stone filled in for him was really good.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
by Tackle Box on Sep 16, 2008 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's like nobody read the previous thread
From the P-D:
Manager Tony La Russa will speak this afternoon to a group of cadets in West Point, N.Y., at the U.S. Army’s military academy, before heading back to New York City to spend the off day saying farewell to a rival’s old home, Yankee Stadium. La Russa has been planning a pilgrimage to the ballpark in the Bronx for several months.
He will be the guest of Chicago White Sox Chairman Jerry Reinsdorf, and he said he’ll be accompanied by his friend, retired Gen. Hal Moore, who marched into Yankee Stadium as a cadet. This is the last home stand at Yankee Stadium before it is demolished.
"I’m fired up," La Russa said. "I’m going to see as much as I can. I’m eager to see it and experience as much as I can of it."
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
by Alxfritz on Sep 16, 2008 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, off topic.
Anyone going to be at the game tonight?
by toris34 on Sep 16, 2008 1:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Something that bothers me about the trade deadline
if they were actually interested in Holliday, as the local papers said they were…why not just call up Rasmus?
If they were going to trade for Matt Holliday, a corner OF’er who will be a very costly FA candidate in the next year, why not call up your young uber-prospect who can play any OF position? The whole argument against bringing him up was cost, but if you were willing to consider devoting $80 M to Holliday, why not bring up Rasmus and invest that money in him?
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 16, 2008 2:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
there are plenty of questions to be answered this season imo
it's time to bring the rock!!!!!!!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 16, 2008 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This offseason will be very interesting..... I think the OF stock pile will be of interest.
by ICbirdfan on Sep 16, 2008 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
absolutely
if we don’t trade away some of those guys, why do we have a GM?
it's time to bring the rock!!!!!!!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 16, 2008 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with the thinking Hardcore however.....
I think the Cards knew Holiday right now could put up great numbers and to be honest I think Holiday out performs Colby this year if Colby was up.
In the long run, Colby may be better.
I think Holiday was a “right now” option, where as Colby was a “later” option. I think they expect great things out of Colby but not “right now”
by ICbirdfan on Sep 16, 2008 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Might of had something to do with with
Colby’s pending position on the USA Olympics team.
by Evilfrog on Sep 16, 2008 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
it's time to bring the rock!!!!!!!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 16, 2008 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
because he is 21 years old
and 21 year old kids have a very very poor track record of performance in MLB, and virtually no chance of being as effective as 2008 Matt Holliday? Especially 21yo kids with a ~.750 OPS at AAA, coming off a serious injury, and a rehab assignment in which he was completely unable to hit A+ level pitching?
In the last 52 years, the “modern era” of post-WW2 baseball, only eleven kids have put up an OPS+ higher than Holliday this season in their 21 year old seasons, and all but two were either HOF or HOF-caliber (IE griffey, pujols, AROD). Only 190 21yo hitters (in 52 years!) were even given at shot at hitting MLB pitching for at least 2/3 of a season, and more than half of them finished the season with an OPS+ under 100.
Regarding salary, trading for Holliday likely would have meant making the playoffs this year. That alone would have virtually paid his salary this year and next.
The more I look at this, the less I think it was about saving money and the more it seems like the organization is trying to take care of colby. What good would it have done to send him to the wolves, to watch him hit .190 and strike out 30 or 40 times in a month? Of course we don’t know that is what would have happened, but it was a real risk, at least as likely as him having success, and one that could have hurt Colby’s long term potential. OTOH there was very little to gain, AND it would have cost the team a year of control.
I think our expectations were way too high, and that in the rasmus case the organization did exactly the right thing, except that they apparently communicated poorly with colby. I know it’s not what we want to hear; inventing “drama” is more fun than playing conservative with our prospects, but Colby has already been promoted very aggressively. He very probably wasn’t ready, isn’t ready, and probably won’t BE ready until this time next year at best.
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
by SleepyCA on Sep 16, 2008 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
eh, 62 years.
1946-2008.
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
by SleepyCA on Sep 16, 2008 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you SleepyCA...
You have posted this a few times the past couple days because of Colby talk. I agree with you, if there was any issue with the handling of Colby it was probably communication if anything.
by ICbirdfan on Sep 16, 2008 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm struck by the unpleasant notion
that rasmus might very well be traded this winter. injury and non-incredible performance aside, his value might simmer the hottest this hotstove. the cardinals might decide that he’s the best piece of the outfield puzzle to trade. i’m not in favor of this scenario. i’d still like to see a starting outfield of rasmus, ankiel, ludwick sometime in 2009, but somebody’s getting traded.
by infallibleopiniongenerator on Sep 16, 2008 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if he is the best piece to trade
Im not against trading him. No one should be untouchable.
That being said they better get a hell of a lot for him.
by Evilfrog on Sep 16, 2008 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Untouchables
I agree w/ you, but would say there are rare players who are untouchable. I hope management thinks Pujols is one of them.
by random on Sep 16, 2008 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Two-thirds of a season?
Wouldn’t it be 1/3rd of the season calling him up in August?
I get what you are saying but using that argument seems to automatically disqualify Razza of being a HOF-caliber player or atleast Hall of Very Good.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 16, 2008 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
While I agree with the gist or your post
I do think it needs to be said that one of the 21 year-olds on your list was a Cardinal farm hand who had less experience than Colby Rasmus and had put up a .948 OPS in low A ball prior to making the club out of spring training. Colby had two full years of MiLB experience and put up a .932 OPS in AA ball, which most folks know is two levels higher than the Midwest League. Additionally, Colby had been told, at least via the media, that he would be given every chance to make the major league club out of spring training.
He then went out and put up a slash line of .302/.464/.605/1.069 in spring training. If we stop the story right here it sure looks like Colby had at least as good a chance as Albert Pujols of making the team, winning the ROY, the Silver Slugger, and garnering some MVP votes. Not to mention that the roster Pujols made was for a club that had won 95 games the previous season and not 78.
So why didn’t Colby make the club out of spring training? We’ll probably never know, but Ankiel had a .975 OPS, Ludwick had a .936 OPS, and Schumaker had a 1.033 OPS. Barton was also quite good at 1.020, but Rasmus wasn’t really competing with him for a spot. I guess if someone had gotten injured a la Spring of 2000 then Colby would have gotten his chance.
My whole point is that Colby is very qualified to be a 21 year-old that could have had a Matt Holiday-like season. Of course if he matched Holliday’s road splits of .311/.403/.492/.895 with 20 HRs and 50 RBIs (just doubled Holliday’s current road production) some people would say he disappointed.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Sep 16, 2008 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
er
spring of 2001
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Sep 16, 2008 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
and I thought his bat was ready, after ST. but his AAA performance imo shows that the team made the right decision.
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
by SleepyCA on Sep 16, 2008 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably so
but I guess we will never know. Seems like the right decision for a team committed to building from within would have been to back that up with its roster decisions. I am just totally bummed at all this trade Colby talk, Colby’s a bust, etc.
They need to keep him, clear a space for him and play him full time next year.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Sep 16, 2008 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rose's doubles after age 28
Just so happens that Rose was 29 when the Reds moved from tiny, doubles-unfriendly Crosley Field to the larger, astroturfed Riverfront Stadium in 1970.
by random on Sep 16, 2008 4:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
they need a stat on how many singles Charlie Hustle turned into doubles!
by ICbirdfan on Sep 16, 2008 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wish I knew that number
and the one for Musial, who charged hard out of the box every time, too. Pujols may not have the wheels those two did, but he for sure does not lack the aggression! BTW, watching him the last few weeks, I’d say the fascitis is bothering him some.
by random on Sep 16, 2008 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lineup
Skip
Lopez
Pujols
Ludwick
Stavi
Miles
LaRue
Looper
Izturis
Blah, blah, blah…..Lopez at 3B again. Blah, blah, blah…..Stavi in LF. :)
by SoonerfanTU on Sep 16, 2008 6:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Must have changed.....
Got mine from Yahoo.
by SoonerfanTU on Sep 16, 2008 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs





















