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How Did the Cards, Brewers, and Cubs Build Their Teams?

Baseball teams have a variety of sources to build their teams. For the three contending teams in the Central (OK, I left out Houston), the Cards, the Brewers, and the Cubs, how did each build their team?

By my count, a club can add players via the following major ways (with the short name in parentheses):

1. By the draft (Draft)

2. Non drafted Free Agents (NDFA)

3. Japanese Free Agents (JNDFA)

4. Major League Free Agents (FA)

5. Minor League Free Agents (MinorFA)

6. Rule 5 Draft (Rule 5)

7. Trades (Trade)

8. Waiver Claims (Waiver)

 

 

Star-divide

So, how did the three teams build their teams?

Using Win Share information from TheHardballTimes.Com (data as of 9/7/2008), here are the Win Shares by each of the eight categories for the Cards, Brewers, and Cubs, along with the percentages of the total team Win Shares for each.

                            Cardinals   Brewers          Cubs
                           WS %tage   WS %tage   WS %tage
Draft                 112    48%   130     53%    35     14%
NDFA                   0      0%        0        0%    52     20%
JNDFA                 0      0%        0        0%    15       6%
FA                       34    15%     77      31%    79     31%
MinorFA             23    10%       9        4%       0       0%
Rule 5                  3      1%       0         0%      0        0%
Trade                 44   19%     33       13%    55     21%
Waiver               15      6%      -3        -1%    22       9%
Totals              231 100%   246    100%  258   100%

For this analysis, I considered Looper and Kennedy (total 16 Win Shares) to be considered drafted players, even though they were technically signed as free agents.

Looking at the numbers, the Cardinals are principally home grown, with 48% of the Win Shares from drafted players, another 10% from Minor League FAs (most notably Ryan Ludwick), and another 1% from Rule 5 draftee Brian Barton.

The Brewers, with a number of high draft choices on the roster, have 53% of their Win Shares from drafted players, along with another 4% from Minor League FAs. Free agents account for 31% of their Win Shares--the same percentage as the Cubs.

The Cubs, as befitting their spending (IIRC) $500 million in free agent contracts, have 31% of their Win Shares from Free Agents and another 6% in a Japanese NDFA (Fukudome). Of the three, the Cubs have been most successful in the NDFA (Carribean) market, most notably Zambrano and Soto. Their drafting has been the worst of the three, generating only 14% of their Win Shares. They have filled in around the edges with two good waiver claims, Reed Johnson and the former #15 for the Cardinals.

I think the breakdown shows two things.

1. Milwaukee is perceived as being home grown, but Milwaukee has only a 5% margin from the draft--offset by the Cards picking up a Rule 5 player and finding Minor League FAs.

2. Time and again I have read (or heard on sports talk radio) how Tony La Russa prefers veteran players. As the numbers show, 59% of the 2008 Cardinal Win Shares are from players the Cards drafted, selected in the Rule 5 draft, or signed as a Minor League FA and then being promoted to the major leagues.

So while the myth is one thing, the reality is different; La Russa has given Card draftees and minor league players an opportunity to play in the major leagues. As I have written once and again, La Russa doesn't prefer veterans, he prefers ballplayers.

 

Dave

 

 

 

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You are confusing rookies with homegrown talent

homegrown talent can be a 26 year old AAAA OF’er who is given a starting job after 3 cups of coffee. Or a AAA Closer that is promoted and demoted in place of veteran relievers.

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 10, 2008 11:58 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

well first

Izzy would have to accept the demotion. Unless he went to the dl for some made up reason…like hurting his hand by hitting a tv or something.

by Evilfrog on Sep 11, 2008 5:34 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Which 26 y/o AAAA OF are you talking about?

If we are talking about rookies, no team consistently give rookies a chance to play.

Right now, there are 7 rookies that qualify for the batting title in the ML, including Fukudome. There are 23 with a minimum of 250 PAs—or less than one per team. So the short answer is that rookies do not typically get a lot of playing time.

As La Russa has been here since 1996, and the Cards have roughly 50% of their WIn Shares from guys coming from their system, at some point La Russa gave the current guys a chance to play.

Dave

by SydneyDave on Sep 11, 2008 11:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

dave, good analysis

i still think there’s room for discussion vis-vis la russa’s disposition toward youngsters. while it’s true that young players have gotten chances under him in 2008, that’s not entirely by tony’s choice -- the organization rolled out a new personnel model that emphasized homegrown resources. tony has used the material he’s been given, and his options this year -- far more so than in the past -- have been restricted to in-house guys.

a lot of fans of my generation tend to contrast tony’s handling of young players against whitey herzog’s. whitey didn’t ease youngsters into their roles nearly as cautiously as tony does. herzog would often hand a young player an everyday job and let him sink or swim; by contrast, tony likes to have his players “earn” their jobs (or “prove their mettle,” to use the term he and duncan applied to anthony reyes). it’s a different managerial philosophy.

to take a current example: the cardinals could, if they chose, go into the off-season on the assumption that colby rasmus will be their everyday centerfielder in 2009 -- just hand him the job, and base other roster decisions off that assumption; i suspect that’s how herzog would play it. tony doesn’t operate that way; he’ll force rasmus to elbow his way into the mix. the kid will eventually do so, and tony will get credit for giving rasmus an opportunity. but some people will still question how that opportunity gets extended; they’ll question whether the team might have been better off commiting to the youngster early on, instead of keeping redundant resources on hand and forcing rasmus to claw his way to the top of the heap.

ultimately, the debate is about resource allocation (which is what you’re analyzing here). i think that la russa’s cautious style of breaking in young players sometimes -- not all the time, but sometimes - places an unnecessary drain on organizational resources.

by lboros on Sep 11, 2008 8:47 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Herzog Vs. La Russa

Larry, first of all thanks for the forum to do something like this.

As to Herzog, I’m old enough to have viewed Herzog (I’m probably older than you are). And as someone who remembers the 1980’s, I think Herzog was the same as La Russa—he preferred ball players.

Herzog’s first move when he came to the Cards was to sign Porter as a FA, even though he had a near HOF incumbent catcher and a young catcher (Kennedy)—and of course Whitey ended up trading Kennedy to San Diego. So Whitey had the choice of a young or a veteran catcher, and he went with the veteran (and he did the same in 1987 when he passed up LeValliere for Pena).

He also traded Durham to the Cubs for Sutter, although Durham was blocked by Hernandez.

Using the same grid as before, here was the composition of the 1982 Cards:

——————————WS———————- tage
Draft -—————-81———————-29
FA—————————19————————-7%
Rule 5———————1———————— 0%
Trade——————172———————-62%
Purchased————3———————— 1%
Totals—————- 276———————-100%

Clearly, most of the talent of the 1982 Cards came via trades (for this analysis, McGee is included as part of the trade grouping). .

In 1981, Herr got a job. In 1982, it was McGee (which happened after Green did not perform as well as hoped). In 1983 it was Van Slyke, 1984 it was Pendleton; 1985 was Coleman. Of these guys, obviously Van Slyke never played as much as the others, nor did Green (and the Cards traded for Jack Clark in 1985 to surplant Green).

The 1985 team got 96 Win Shares from draftees, or 32% of the total.

But I don’t see a lot of difference between La Russa and Herzog. Pujols went from AA to playing 161 games. Molina was given a half year apprenticeship with Matheny and then was given the job (similar to Pendleton’s arrival in 1984). Drew and Van Slyke had similar patterns. Duncan came up and after mid-2006 won a job. So of the differences are the availability of minor league players combined with major league openings.

I don’t know what the Cards will do with Rasmus. It appears that they are less happy with him than previously. However, to say that with certainty that Herzog would have made Rasmus the default CF for 2009 is not sustained by the facts, in my opinion—no more than Herzog fully committed to Van Slyke. I also think the Cards concerns with Rasmus aren’t necessarily talent focused, but instead center around character issues. Again, I believe the Van Slyke comparison is apt (I don’t think Herzog and Van Slyke fully meshed).

I think that both Herzog and La Russa are pretty good judges of baseball talent. But to say that Herzog was more willing to roll the dice with young players is a shade of gray, not black and white.

Dave

by SydneyDave on Sep 11, 2008 11:17 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

How many of these win shares are coming from Albert Pujols?

Herzog never had a player of Pujols caliber.

Perhaps if you ran the simulation just by removing the best player in WS each year and see where the rest falls, that would give us a better idea.

Albert is a once in a lifetime talent, currently the leader in WS on this team by 11 points. He has 31, which accounts for nearly 30% of the teams ‘draft’ WS total. That’s a massive chunk for just one guy, isn’t it?

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 11, 2008 11:46 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

McGee, Herr, Clark, Ozzie

In 1985 McGee had 36 Win Shares and Herr had 30.

In 1987, Clark and Ozzie each had 33.

So Albert with 31 (to date) is in the same range as those players.

I’m not sure what your point is, to be honest.

Dave

P.S. To my knowledge, the Win Shares that I am citing from these years are not generally available. I get them from my copy of WIn Shares, written by Bill James.

by SydneyDave on Sep 12, 2008 12:16 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Let's compare Houston, for example

By a quick and dirty count, Houston has about 80 Win Shares from their draftees.

Berkman, with 35, and Pence, with 17, account for about 60% of their draft Win Shares—Berkman’s at 44% all by himself.

The idea is to draft the really good players, not discount for them. It’s the good players that make the difference.

Again, everyone retrospectively says it’s easy to play Albert. Of course, he was only 21 and had spent most of the year at A ball in 2000, and Tony played him 161 games in 2001 (and don’t bother with the Bonilla fiction). There are very few players that go from A ball to the majors—and that’s to Tony and Walt’s credit the Cards gave him a chance—and he took it from there.

Contrast that to the Phillies. Utley and Howard are two of the better hitters in baseball. However, they were both circa 25 before they became regulars in the big leagues, even though they showed pretty solid minor league performance.

Dave

by SydneyDave on Sep 12, 2008 12:25 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Baseball Digest's 2001 All-Rookie Team
Pujols went to spring training as a non-roster player with the Cardinals after a 2000 season spent on the lowest minor league rungs. His potential was obvious but manager Tony La Russa opposed keeping Pujols with the major league team unless he could find steady playing time for him. La Russa thought the youngster needed more seasoning in the minors.

But Pujols’ timing was impeccable. He was at hand when veteran Bobby Bonilla suffered a left hamstring injury so the Cardinals decided to keep the right-handed batting Pujols to play against left-handers. Almost before they knew it, Pujols was indispensable. He played regularly, plugged in at whatever position was vacant—right field, left field, first base, third base. He filled in for McGwire, Edmonds, Drew, whomever.

Pujols hit a home run in the Cardinals’ first home game of the season and became the team’s most consistent hitter, his average hovering around .330 all season with plenty of power. He he set an National League rookie mark with 130 RBI and fell one HR short of the venerable N.L. rookie record of 38 home runs shared by Wally Berger and Frank Robinson.

Man, if that doesn’t sound familiar. 7 years later, same old Tony.

I like reading Sports Illustrated’s season preview for 2001:

Is this the year Tony La Russa finally lets J.D. Drew play everyday? Drew has averaged only 387 at-bats in his two full major league seasons. At 25, this could be the year Drew lives up to the hype that has followed him for his entire pro career.

3B Albert Pujols — By dealing Tatis, the Cardinals showed a trememdous amount of faith in the future promise of Pujols. The 21-year-old hit .324 with 17 homers in Class A, although he struggled in a short stint in Memphis. While not ready in 2001, Pujols is the heir apparent for the third-base job while the Cardinals keep the seat warm for one year.

Man, alot of this stuff sounds just like what people have said about Razza.

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 12, 2008 12:51 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Because a review of the timing indicates it didn't happen that way

“During spring training in 2001, the Cardinals were preparing for Pujols to join the Major League ranks. Pujols played extremely well in spring and won a spot on the Opening Day roster (Bobby Bonilla’s placement on the disabled list did not affect his position on the roster).”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Pujols#2001_Season:_Rookie_of_the_Year

When Bonilla went down, the Cards kept Mabry. When Bonilla came back, Mabry was traded to the Marlins.

I like to deal in facts, not speculation. TLR played Albert 161 times in 2001.

Dave

by SydneyDave on Sep 12, 2008 10:42 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If you like to deal in facts

I would suggest not using wikipedia in the future. Especially entries that have absolutely no sourcing on the statement provided.

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 12, 2008 12:59 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

To be fair

SI has no idea what they’re talking about in a lot of their previews, too.

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on Sep 12, 2008 1:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I remember that spring very well

At the time I was very down on the Cards minor league system. However, I traveled to Phoenix almost every week on business those days so I decided to go to an AFL game played by the Cardinals prospects one night.

It was a pitchers’ duel and I think the final score was something like 3-2. All the runs scored by the Cardinals’ team came on a rocket into the gap by Albert Pujols and a line-drive HR by Albert as well. I distinctly remember that the ball made a much different sound coming off his bat than anyone else’s.

My brother was a big farm system fan at that time and we argued quite a bit about various prospects. Of course, he always thought they were going to be perennial All Stars and I was ever the contrarian. I called him up from the park and when he answered I said, “Albert Pujols is going to the Hall of Fame.” We still joke about that one.

Needless to say, I was disappointed the following spring when Albert was arguably the best hitter in camp and TLR was quoted in the P-D saying he wasn’t ready and needed more seasoning. I am pretty sure he essentially said that Albert would only be with the team untill Bonilla got healthy, but Albert didn’t really give him a choice. It’s not a myth.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Sep 12, 2008 4:06 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Here is a story from the time

This is copied from a board I frequent:

<<4/1/2001 11:05 am ET

Pujols in, Gilkey out, Ankiel to start
Mabry’s fate depends on Bonilla’s health
By Derek M. Glanz
stlcardinals.com

SEATTLE, Wash.—The Cardinals will purchase the contract of rookie Albert Pujols and add the 21-year-old to their 25-man Opening Day roster.

John Mabry’s fate depends on Bobby Bonilla’s health. The team has not made a decision on whether it will place Bonilla, suffering from a hamstring injury, on the disabled list. That decision will likely come tomorrow. If he is not activated, Mabry will be added to the club.

Bernard Gilkey is the odd man out. It is yet to be determined whether he will be offered reassignment to the minor leagues.

The club will also purchase the contract of left-handed reliever Jeff Tabaka.

Lefty Rick Ankiel will start in the Cardinals’ final exhibition game on Sunday against the Mariners in Seattle. Dustin Hermanson, scheduled to start the fourth game of the regular season, will relieve Ankiel. Ankiel last pitched on March 26 in a “B” game in Jupiter, tossing three scoreless innings and throwing 31 of his 44 pitches for strikes, walking none and striking out four. Ankiel will make the Cardinals’ 25-man roster and all reports indicate he will pitch in the starting rotation.

In his first Triple-A rehab start, Cardinals righthander Garrett Stephenson pitched five shutout innings , striking out five, walking four and giving up four hits. Stephenson is rehabilitating tendinitis in his right elbow.

Etc… The Cards play their last spring training game on Sunday in Seattle at 5:35 CT. They open the season in Colorado on Monday at 3:05 CT.

Derek M. Glanz is Site Editor for stlcardinals.com >>

So instead of after the season, this was written at the time.

It was John Mabry that made the team when Bonilla went on the DL.

When Bonilla came off the DL, Mabry was traded to the Marlins.

Pujols played 161 games for the Cards.

Dave

by SydneyDave on Sep 14, 2008 2:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Rest of the story

You have cited an interesting version of the events based on the insight of the mlb.com beat reporter. I have no idea how connected DereK Glanz may have been, but I trust Rick Hummel’s account more.

According to Hummel in the 4/1/01 issue of the P-D with the headline, “PUJOLS APPEARS TO HAVE GAINED A SPOT ON OPENING DAY ROSTER BONILLA APPARENTLY WILL BE ON DL” Hummel stated that the plan was to have LF be a platoon situation as Bonilla would hit against LHPs and some unnamed left-handed hitter, presumably Lankford, would have been the other half of the platoon.

Hummell went on to state that, “LaRussa has been the one member of the hierarchy against keeping Pujols unless he could find some steady playing time for him.” He further stated that Pujols would start against LHPs only.

We all know that quickly changed as Lankford was on his way out and McGwire was injured, but I don’t think it could be a lot clearer. If Bonilla had been healthy he would have been part of a LF platoon that would have meant Albert wouldn’t have a spot for “steady playing time” and would have been sent out.

Also interesting to note the implication that the GM and the rest of the coaching staff were all for keeping Albert, but Tony was the only member of the “hierarchy” who didn’t want to play him enough to keep him.

I wonder what would have happened to Ludwick and his 22 win shares if Juan Gonzalez had stayed healthy?

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Sep 15, 2008 2:38 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

On Drew

Drew had 486 PAs in 2000—16 short of qualifying for the batting title. I’d say that was pretty close to everyday—given that Drew had a penchant for not exactly answering the bell everyday.

Just for the record, here is Drew’s PA’s every year, excluding 1998

1999 430
2000 486
2001 443
2002 496
2003 328
2004 645
2005 311
2006 594
2007 552
2008 451

In three of his ten seasons Drew has played enough to qualify for the batting title (he might make it this year).

I’d hardly call him Cal Ripken. Judging La Russa on Drew’s playing time is hardly prime evidence, I’d say.

Dave

by SydneyDave on Sep 12, 2008 11:19 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

re herzog vs la russa

when pendleton arrived in 1984, he went directly into the starting lineup - there was no “learning how to be a big leaguer” apprenticeship phase. his first appearance was a start (july 18), and he started 67 of the team’s last 71 games at 3b. van slyke was the same in 1983 - he made his debut on june 17 in the starting lineup, and he started each of the next 22 games and 81 of the final 100. they both came up and were handed everyday jobs - there was no “trainee” phase. herr was the everyday 2b from the get-go; coleman, the everyday left-fielder (whitey traded lonnie smith to make room for him). danny cox came up from the minors and went directly into the regular rotation; ditto john stuper, andy rincon, john martin, joe magrane, greg mathews, and probably others (i’m just going off the top of my head).

it’s true the whitey traded away kennedy and durham in 1980-81, but he got at least as many young players back in that series of trades -- david green and dave lapoint, in particular, were two players he targeted for acquisition in the simmons/fingers trade. in that era he also traded for john martin, willie mcgee, tim conroy (part of the return on keith hernandez). durham and kennedy, by the way, were both traded because they didn’t meet whitey’s defensive standards (durham would have to play out of position in the outfield, because hernandez had the 1b job).

if i had to sum up the difference between herzog and la russa in a word, it would be decisiveness. whitey didn’t dither around with prospects -- either they were ready to play or they weren’t. if he didn’t think they were ready, he left them in the minors; when he thought they were ready, he put them into the lineup and traded away the veteran who used to hold the job.

by lboros on Sep 12, 2008 9:28 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes, Whitey was decisive

But that decisiveness went both ways.

As I wrote above, his first move was to get Porter—followed by the move to get Sutter. He did that with rookies and veterans, alike. When Green wasn’t cutting it he traded Green, LaPoint and two other young players for Clark.

As to Coleman, in Whitey’s first book he said he told Coleman that Coleman was up for only two weeks—and Coleman told him that he planned to stay a lot longer than that. As I remember, Coleman was called up because someone was injured. After Coleman had established himself, the Cards traded Lonnie Smith. On the flip side, swapping Van Slyke to get Lindeman in the lineup didn’t turn out so well, did it?

Yes, the Cards traded away Oberkfell and played Pendleton—and the Cards traded away Tatis to open up a spot for Pujols. And Molina and Matheny shared for 2004, and in 2005 the catcher’s job was Molina’s. McClellan went from AA to the most trusted reliever in the bullpen. Ankiel was starting in the major’s at 20.

As to Kennedy, I don’t know whether he met Whitey’s defensive standards or not, but it’s pretty clear that Whitey wanted Porter, and that was the primary consideration. And once the Cards had Porter, there was no room for Kennedy; and once Simmons wouldn’t play first, there was no place for Simmons.

So, tell me, besides Anthony Reyes (let’s just not go there), which minor leaguer in the Cards system over the past 13 years should La Russa have been more decisive in playing from the get go. I’d like to see the list (and before people say Chris Perez, please read the main post that shows that Chris Perez has pitched in the 9th inning 28 times this season).

On the flip side, the rookies who were subs with Whitey got little playing time. La Russa has time and again (you wrote the post on rookies with 100 ABs) given the J Rods and Lunas and Seabols of the world some PAs to give themselves a chance to prove themselves in the big leagues. In that aspect, La Russa has been far more favorable to rookies/young players than Herzog, who tended to rely more on his regulars (in part because many of them were switch-hitters).

Yes, La Russa is slower to make a decision on a player—but again, it’s shades of gray, IMO.

Dave

by SydneyDave on Sep 12, 2008 11:13 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Let's also not forget Todd Worrell

who was brought up in late August of ’85 specifically to share the closer duties with another youngish player, Ken Dayley. In spite of blowing his first two save opportunities Worrell stayed in that position through the rest of the season and the World Series.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Sep 12, 2008 12:51 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

dave, i think you're taking this as criticism of la russa

i’m not criticizing him. but he clearly is a different manager than whitey was - different in a lot of respects, including (but hardly limited to) roster management. we can both cite cases where each manager gave a rookie a chance, and other cases where they dealt a rookie away. but it’s a fact that herzog gave more opportunities to rookies -- the numbers bear that out (as i’ll illustrate in a second). that’s partly due to managerial style, and partly due to the fact that herzog played for an ownership that wouldn’t pay high salaries. people bitch about the current owners, but in the 1980s the cardinals never ranked higher than 3d in their division in payroll and usually were 4th or 5th. the payroll was small, so herzog often didn’t have the luxury of using pricey veterans. if he did have the option, i’m not convinced that he would have preferred them over young ballplayer; he liked young, aggressive guys who had something to prove. i’m just speculating, but i suspect that he would not have been in favor of handing out a lot of fat long-term contracts, because those sometimes make ballplayers complacent, and whitey hated complacency.

in his 10 years as the cardinal manager, whitey herzog created 19 everyday ballplayers -- that is, 19 players became big-league regulars under his management in st louis. by “regular,” i’m talking about an everyday player or rotation starter who held a job for the cardinals for at least 1 full season. i’m not counting middle relief pitchers, on the assumption that they cancel each other out; nearly every manager runs rookies in and out of his bullpen out of sheer necessity; herzog does get credit for breaking in todd worrell, because the closer position is so critical.

so herzog created 19 regulars in 10 years, an average of two a year. la russa has created 14 regulars in his 13 seasons as the cardinal manager -- about 1 a season. la russa has created a lot of part-time players for the franchise -- so taguchis and brad thompsons and anthony reyeses - but herzog had a lot of guys like that too (dane iorg, tito landrum, rickey horton, etc). without question, herzog gave regular playing time to more rookies than la russa did. i am not arguing that he was therefore a better manager than la russa. but he was a differrent type of manager, with a different plan for how to succeed.

by lboros on Sep 13, 2008 12:56 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think you are correct

and it is a natural extension of Whitey either being the GM or the de facto GM throughout his tenure.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Sep 13, 2008 3:01 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think you also have to factor in the times are different

First of all, the salaries were a lot more compacted; the Cards under AB were in the pack, but the difference between the average salary and the highest was generally a lot closer—no real outliers like the Yankees of today.

BBref.com has the 1985 salaries. The Cards at $11.8 MM were the third highest in the NL, behind the Cubs ($12.7 MM) and Atlanta ($14.8 MM). The Cards were willing to spend money; they got Sutter because the Cubs didn’t want to pay him; ditto Ozzie. Porter was a FA. I think money had to do with the Clark trade, too.

I went back and counted players under your parameters, so I like to compare my list with yours (I went quickly and may have missed one or two):

Here’s what I come up with:

1981 (2) Herr, John Martin (borderline whether he meets your criteria)
1982 (3) McGee, Stuper, Snacks
1983 (3) Green, Van Slyke, Cox
1984 (3) Pendleton, Kepshire, Horton
1985 (2) Worrell, Coleman
1986 (1) Mathews
1987 (1) McGrane
1988 (0)
1989 (1) Hill

By my count, that’s about 15 that I would consider that had more than a cup of coffee.

Same for La Russa

1996 (1) Alan Benes
1997 (2) Morris, Young
1998 (1) Marrero
1999 (3) Jiminez, McEwing, Drew
2000 (2) Polanco, Ankiel
2001 (1) Pujols
2002 (1) Simontacchi
2003 (0) But Haren did get a partial chance
2004 (0)
2005 (1) Molina
2006 (3) Wainwight, Duncan, Reyes
2007 (1) Ludwick
2008 (1) Schumaker

By my count, that’s 17—a little lower per year than Herzog, but in the same ballpark, given the Card’s record of success over the last 7 or so years.

But the point also is that La Russa uses his bench a lot more than Herzog did. Dane Iorg’s (who was with the Cards before Herzog) most PA’s in a season was 275, Tito’s was 230—6 years after he started with the Cards (after seasons of 85, 133, 84, 6, 187 and 181). So had seasons of 424, 340, and 361 with the Cardinals. Luna, a Rule 5 guy (the guys that Herzog tended to bury) had 192, 153, and 245—and people complained that La Russa didn’t give him a chance.

So again, when you wrote the “without question” about giving playing time to rookies, I think there certainly is a question—or at least it’s a lot closer than you think. And Whitey also recycled a lot of those rookies—a lot of the starters on the Herzog list lasted for about a two year period and they were out of the regular rotation.

Do I take it as criticism of La Russa. Yeah, probably—which is probably what everyone else reads too.

Again, I think they were two managers with the same plan to succeed—get ballplayers, regardless of vintage.

Dave

by SydneyDave on Sep 14, 2008 1:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Your last paragraph.....

Hos is that any different than Tony?

He doesn’t think Rasmus is ready to play everyday, so he left him down. He didn’t think Motte would get many innings, so he left him down. He wasn’t ready to give Perez the closer’s job until Izzy gave it one more go, so he left him down. Same with Freese. I don’t get where the difference is.

by SoonerfanTU on Sep 12, 2008 12:00 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i really like this post

your conclusions about tony and all that are your own, i don’t have the wisdom or experience necessary to comment really. but this is just a nice breakdown and comparison of the teams and their current construction. it also is a nice reminder that acquiring players is not as simple as farm, free agent, or trade; there are more categories to look at.
as much as i hate to say it, the astros deserve some sort of credit for what they’ve accomplished. it might be mostly smoke and mirrors, but when everybody (myself included) felt sure they wouldn’t have a chance of pulling off another second half surge, they went and did it. i wonder what their team construction looks like?

by mattybobo on Sep 11, 2008 10:04 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

that's an interesting breakdown

i think it would be neat to go back and look at teams through the years to see if there are any trends. For example, if you were to do that for the 2004 Cardinals I would think there would be a much lower percentage in the drafted column, with guys like Edmonds, Rolen, and Renteria playing a big part in the team’s success.

As far as the Cubs are concerned I imagine you would have to go back quite a few years to find a team that had a major contribution from primarily home grown guys. My guess would be last succesful cubs team to have the majority of it’s guys be homegrown would be the 89 division team that had quite a few in house guys.

---AC 00 00 00 - Believe

by mjk83 on Sep 11, 2008 10:14 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

How do those numbers change if you...

take Kennedy and Looper and make them free agent acquisitions?

by stlfan on Sep 11, 2008 10:19 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If you classify Kennedy and Looper as FAs

then the Draft component drops to 42% and the FA component climbs to 22%. I think that is the correct classification, but I really like the approach of this analysis, so I will give it a gold star. After all, they were both traded at least in part because TLR didn’t value them as prospects.

I spot checked ’06 as a sanity check and the Draft component is much smaller with only 64 win shares from the draft. 39 of those were from numero cinqo and his presence really skews the numbers as far as making the conclusion that Tony has given young players a chance. I think there are some other things to consider, namely Young Pitcher has as many win shares as Jason Isringhausen and Ryan Franklin combined. I really wonder if our season would have turned out differently if YP had been in his current unofficial role in that late July series against the Brewers where the bullpen blew three late leads.

Anthony Reyes has as many win shares for Cleveland as Joel Pineiro has for us and leads the team in win share percentage.

It is also interesting to note the relatively high number of vets, or pets, with either zero or negative WSAB, such as Kennedy, Izturis, Duncan, Franklin, Flores, Villone and Isringhausen.

I have always felt that TLR isn’t necessarily biased against young guys, he is biased against guys that don’t pass his personal eyeball/sniff test. If you don’t get off on the right foot with him, it seems like you’ll get buried regardless of potential or talent. Makes me worry for Colby.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Sep 11, 2008 12:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thanks, and a small rebuttal

I disagree with your assessment that TLR didn’t value Looper and Kennedy as prospects; I think he (and Walt) viewed the guys they could get—a 23 y/o SS (Renteria) and, as it turns out, the best CF of the first half of the 2000’s (Edmonds). Those deals had a lot to do with the team success from 2000 to 2006.

I just looked at 2006 and I come up with 77 (69 if you exclude Looper, as per your logic above), or roughly 31% of the 249 total Win Shares. Add to that 7 for Luna (Rule 5) and 6 for J Rod (minor league trade), as young players given a chance to play (and not to forget the closer was a rookie).

As to this year, people complain about the use of Perez, but ignore that La Russa’s most dependable reliever has been McClellan, who pitched at AA last year.

If I have time, I will do similar analyzses for 2004 to 2007 for the Cards tonight—just as a comparison—along with a response to Larry’s post above.

Dave

by SydneyDave on Sep 11, 2008 4:05 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Rebuttal welcome

Dave, I liked your post and it was insightful to develop the matrix you used. I just felt it was incorrect to include guys reacquired as veterans who made no meaningful contribution to the team as rookies. Especially since you chose to use them to support TLR’s use of young players. They really weren’t used as young players.

I don’t have an issue with the fact that they were traded – JEd and Edgar were two of my favorite Cardinals. What I meant by didn’t value them as prospects was simply that they were included in trades. I am happy Florida and Anaheim valued them. I have no idea whether the Cardinals had the option to include different prospects or not.

Regarding the 2006 team, I think the only win share contributors listed at THT that were Cardinal draft picks were: Pujols (39), Duncan (11), Molina (9), Thompson (5), Reyes (2), and Johnson (1). I think that adds up to 67. Luna (7) was Rule 5 , JRod (6) was a minor league FA, Kinney (2)played independent ball, and I think the rest were pretty self explanatory. That is a total of 82 – sorry my original math was only Cardinal draft picks. So, if you remove Pujols 39 (what manager in his right mind wouldn’t play Albert Pujols), the discretionary component on that team was only 43 win shares or about 17% of the win shares from young players that weren’t first ballot HOFer, once-in-a-generation players.

Thanks for the thought provoking stuff.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Sep 11, 2008 7:50 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes, 67

I included Kinney as a draftee and he should have been a NDFA.

Dave

by SydneyDave on Sep 11, 2008 11:33 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

While this is true...
I disagree with your assessment that TLR didn’t value Looper and Kennedy as prospects; I think he (and Walt) viewed the guys they could get—a 23 y/o SS (Renteria) and, as it turns out, the best CF of the first half of the 2000’s (Edmonds). Those deals had a lot to do with the team success from 2000 to 2006.

They need to be considered Free Agents because that’s how they were acquired. I don’t disagree with trading them, and they did hold value at that level, but it costs draft picks to sign free agents, so they need to be classified as such.

If the Cardinals were to trade for or sign Coco Crisp, would you consider him homegrown as well? He did come up in our system and was traded for Chuck Finley.

Great analysis, I just think you should call a spade a spade, that’s all.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Sep 12, 2008 4:01 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

In my defense

First, I disclosed that included those guys and I gave the amount of Win Shares, so that people could make their own decisions.

I think they signed as FAs with STL because of their history with the Cards from being drafted by the Cards.

I could have also listed Edmonds and Rolen as FAs because while they were traded to the Cards originally they signed FA contracts after the trades, but I thought the “trade” category was better placement.

Dave

by SydneyDave on Sep 14, 2008 1:42 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

LOL

It is also interesting to note the relatively high number of vets, or pets, with either zero or negative WSAB, such as Kennedy, Izturis, Duncan, Franklin, Flores, Villone and Isringhausen.

We all admit that Kennedy has been a disappointment, though he isn’t far behind his career averages. Same with Izturis. And how can you call them pets, when management signed them, and management won’t buy them out. You can only play who is on your roster.

Franklin has been fine when not closing. I’d argue that if you take out the 2-3 weeks, or however long it was that Franklin closed, his numbers are probably pretty darn close to K-Mac. Flores and Villone…..our only healthy lefties. Again, jump on management for not going after a LOOGY. And Izzy got hurt.

by SoonerfanTU on Sep 11, 2008 5:40 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

this reminds me of the logic that is applied to Dave Duncan

I think it is a pretty safe assumption that during the WJ era TLR was “management”. I doubt that a single player moved or acquired during that era was done without TLR’s knowledge and approval. You can cherry pick Franklin’s numbers and make excuses for Izzy all you want, but the original post’s argument was that win share data justified a conclusion that TLR has “has given Card draftees and minor league players an opportunity to play in the major leagues.”

I think it is very valid to use that same data to argue the point that TLR’s attachment to veterans, at the expense of younger players, is sometimes detrimental to the team. When you compare Perez’ accomplishments, as measured by win shares, to those of Izzy and Franklin it is a reasonable conclusion that had Perez been given the opportunity to earn more win shares the team would have been better off.

I don’t think what management could or should have done regarding a LOOGY is something either your or I know much about and is not really relevant to the subject at hand.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Sep 11, 2008 7:28 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It is also interesting to note the relatively high number of vets, or pets, with either zero or negative WSAB, such as Kennedy, Izturis, Duncan, Franklin, Flores, Villone and Isringhausen.

Where does Duncan fit in, pet or vet?

The Cards are hurting because of missing Duncan’s bat.

In 2007 he was second on the team in WS with 18.

In 2006 he had 11 in half a season—and his bat helped the Cards get to the World Series win.

Part of the offensive issues this year is because he’s not batted up to his prior levels, hopefully because of the injuries.

Dave

by SydneyDave on Sep 12, 2008 12:31 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I guess Duncan qualifies as both a pet and a vet.

Injuries or not, the guy was hurting the team for an entire year and TLR kept running him out there and hurting the team. I don’t see any honor in hiding injuries, or playing through them, unless you can play up to an acceptable level. Guys who aren’t pets are sent to the DL with breathtaking speed when they have an injury (Barton, Reyes), while guys who are pets (Duncan, Izzy, Ankiel) are ground to dust.

I appreciate Duncan’s offensive contributions when healthy as much as the next guy, but it really isn’t a shade of gray that TLR continuing to play him when he obviously was not healthy and obviously not performing was a big mistake. Just how many games of .700ish OPS from the big guy do you need to see to figure out something isn’t right? How do you earn a return to the big leagues after a week of .540 OPS in AAA?

I don’t have any hate for Chris Duncan, or TLR for that matter, but as a Cardinal fan it does irritate me to see a stubborn manager piss away a chance at the playoffs and then try to shift the blame to the team, the front office, the ownership, the media, the ushers, etc.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Sep 12, 2008 1:09 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Pets.....

Still cracks me up. To suggest TLR would play a guy over another one because of something personal, and not for a baseball reason, is silly.

by SoonerfanTU on Sep 12, 2008 5:11 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

or Ankiel, Rick

and I love both Rick and Chris, but why the hell do you put players out there for months at a time when it is obvious they are not healthy?

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Sep 12, 2008 6:09 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Albert hasn't been "healthy" since 2003

Yet Tony plays him virtually everyday.

All ML managers make these type of choices—because they think that 90% of a player that is hurt is better than the alternative they have available to them.

Dave

by SydneyDave on Sep 14, 2008 1:44 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Please, that analogy ?

It is obvious that Albert is not so injured that he cannot play at a superior level.

Rick and Chris were obviously injured to the point to where they could not produce for an extended period of time. I think that if I can figure that out being merely a fan, that the team should have noticed it too.

They were nowhere near 90 % and the alternatives were clearly out playing them.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Sep 14, 2008 1:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Do you even pay attention?

What baseball reason could you possibly have to play Chris Duncan when he is not healthy and sucks (2007) or just sucks and you may/may not know he is injured (2008). His contributions haven’t justified his playing time in over a year. For you to argue that is asinine, which by the way is far worse than silly.

I know, let’s take a poll and see how many people agree with your opinion. Maybe 2%? Please enlighten me with the baseball reason to play a defensive liability in LF whose offensive production over a large sample of ABs was pathetic?

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Sep 12, 2008 10:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Do you pay attention?

Duncan, based on this year’s performance, wasn’t a defensive liability, based on several numeric based player defensive evaluations.

THey played him because they thought he would return to his prior form, when he was one of the better offensive players on the team. It obviously didn’t work out.

Dave

by SydneyDave on Sep 14, 2008 1:46 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't know for sure what your basis is

for assuming Duncan was not a defensive liability, but I would guess it is RZR. Based on 2007, when he played about twice as many innings, his RZR was .781, or worse than all qualified LFs in the NL. That means worse than Adam Dunn, Carlos Lee, and Pat Burrell. He played about half the teams innings in LF, but missed about three times as many plays in his zone as the other guys combined.

In fewer innings this year his RZR was sixth best of all the Cardinals players who have played LF, making him superior to only Stavinoha, Phelps, and Adam Kennedy. Oh yeah, and he had the second worst fielding pecentage of anyone on the team who played LF. He was better, but still a liability. The LF whose numbers are most similar to his are the noted defensive wizard Alfonso Soriano.

Besides, the real thrust of the post was that Duncan’s playing time over about a full season’s worth of games was not a good baseball decision because he sucked so bad at the plate. Not just for a week, or a month, but for a full season’s worth of games. Name one other player who has played that many games when he sucked that bad other than a young Yadier Molina.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Sep 14, 2008 7:15 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Here are Chris Dial's defensive numbers

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p9BODtOllD4sXsmwK_rgHQA

Dial’s system shows Duncan to be a +5.2, best of the Cardinal LF.

His RZR was lower than the other Cards, but hardly in the “horrible range”.

As to Duncan, his OPS+ for 2008 is 89 in 222 AB. Where does that range on the suckiness scale for previous Cardinal seasons?

In 2007, Edmonds had an OPS+ of 88 in 365 AB. Scott Rolen had an 89 in 392 ABs.

In 2006, Encarnacion had a 93 in 557 ABs, and Yadi had a 53 in 417 ABs (so 53 is the same as 89?). Eckstein had an 81 in 500 ABs. So had a 78 in 316 ABs.

In 2005, Mabry had a 81 in 246 ABs.

In 2004, Anderson had a 66 in 253 ABs.

Should I go on?

Were all of these guys “pets” too?

Dave

by SydneyDave on Sep 14, 2008 10:38 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Pets

Mabry, Taguchi, Yadi.

Edmonds was an aging vet, so was Rolen.

Encarnacion falls into the Kennedy catagory. Clearly in Tony’s doghouse, but not in a way that actually gets him less playing time.

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 15, 2008 12:48 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So tell me

why you didn’t mention the other component of Chris’ OPD (offense plus defense) system that rates Chris Duncan as one of the worst offensive LFs in the NL? I mean 46th out of 52 isn’t considered good is it? Just how good are you if the only guys in the whole league that are worse than you are Marlon Anderson, Juan PIerre, Chris Burke, Matt Diaz, Eric Byrnes, and Wily Mo Pena?

Also, Chris’ DRS seems to be a counting stat, not a rate stat so there is an inherent bias in favor of guys who have played more innings. Plus, ZR is a key component of DRS and Duncan’s ZR in 2007 was awful in twice as many innings played. I believe Chris’ article said more weight should be given to larger samples.

Finally, do you really want to base your argument on a system that rates Skip Schumaker as one of the worst defensive LFs in the NL? Do you really think that Duncan is a far superior LF to Schu? Do you think that the only LFs in the NL that are worse than Skip are Luis Gonzalez, Fernando Tatis, Carlos Lee, and Jason Bay?

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Sep 15, 2008 10:12 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Problem with this kind of analysis

In thinking about this, there’s an easy explanation with this kind of analysis if you believe that TLR doesn’t like to play the youngsters.

That problem is this: Win Shares aren’t proportional to playing time necessarily. Guys like Izturis and Villone probably earned very low win share percentages, but got plenty of playing time, whereas someone like Chris Perez probably has equal or better Win Shares in minimal playing time. This type of analysis makes it seem like two players with 5 win shares each get equal playing time. That’s not true.

The other part is that it should be an obvious conclusion that draftees would have the higher percentage because of two reasons:
1) We have a phenomenol player who is a once in a generation player in Albert Pujols who we were lucky enough to draft (although it’s obvious we didn’t even know what we were getting in drafting him with the round he was selected in)
2) If a rookie beats out a veteran on a TLR managed team, it’s because he’s noticeably better. Ludwick vs. some random scrapheap league average outfielder is an easy call. Someone like Stavinoha vs. the scrap heaper isn’t so easy, and the scrap-heaper would likely win that battle if it was for a starting job.

I like the idea, but I think it’d be more valuable to use this in conjunction with an analysis of percentage of at bats and innings pitched that each category received. Also, as someone pointed out, since Looper and Kennedy were traded off and then signed, they fall more under the FA category, especially since they never reached their peak with the Cardinals. I’d give you a pass with McGee when he came back as a draftee (if he, in fact, were one), since his ascent as a player was clearly with the CArdinals (at least on the major league level)

by mtalken on Sep 12, 2008 11:21 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There's also an explanation that TLR does play the in house guys.

Win Shares has positives and negatives, but the short answer is that, even excluding Kennedy and Looper, 42% of the Win Shares of the 2008 team are from guys the Cards drafted—and La Russa has said repeatedly that he likes this team.

Can you share with me one Cardinal rookie that should have beaten out an incumbent Cardinal over the 13 years that La Russa has been manager? Who is this player who has been denied—and then gone somewhere else and been a big success?

As to other measures, the numbers are out there, and a forum exists here to do such a post. However, if you judge the offensive guys (ignoring pitcher ABs), 50% of the 2008 ABs have been by guys drafted by the Cards, another 6% for Kennedy, another 10% for Ludwick (who was promoted from Memphis) and another 3% for Barton, the Rule 5 guy. Ignoring Kennedy, that means 63% of the 2008 ABs have been given to guys who La Russa has given a chance to play over their careers.

Dave

by SydneyDave on Sep 14, 2008 2:04 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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