the mvp candidates
by lboros on Aug 5, 2008 9:30 AM EDT
313 comments
cubs lost; brewers lost; cards didn’t lose. life is good.
pujols is 0 for his last 13 or something, so it’s probably the wrong time to ask this question, but i’ll do it anyway: does he have a shot at the winning the mvp award? it’s a question that comes up annually; even last year, his weakest since 2001, he had a strong case. as AZ noted a couple of weeks ago, pujols is so consistently awesome that it’s easy to take it for granted, and that probably costs albert votes; the mvp usually goes to a great player whose greatness spikes one year, but pujols’ spikes every year, which dulls the effect. i honestly believe he’s one of the most underrated players in the game.
ok; so is he the 2008 mvp? he’s got to be a candidate. the team is doing well, and so is he: 2d in the league in obp, 3d in slugging and batting avg, 2d in ops. he’s also way up there in sabr categories such as VORP (2nd), win shares (4th), and WPA (3rd). he’s got unimpressive counting stats this year, which will hurt him --- mvp voters like counting stats, witness their fondness for jimmy rollins last year. albert is not in the top 10 in homers, rbis, runs, or total bases, and this alone might cost him the award. however, most of the counting-stats leaders this year have glaring holes in their game. the two league leaders in homers (dunn and howard) are both hitting south of .250; the top rbi men are howard (low batting average) and carlos lee (plays in a small market for a bad team). another oddity this year: nobody on the best team in the league, the cubs, is having an mvp-type year. well, actually there’s one --- alfonso soriano --- but he’s been out of the lineup so much he probably won’t win the award. incredibly, only one cub player currently ranks among the top 10 in avg, obp, or slugging --- ryan theriot (he’s 6th in avg and 10th in obp). they have nobody in the top 10 in homers, and only 1 on the rbi leaderboard ---- aramis ramirez, who ranks 10th.
so it’s a wide-open field, and albert is definitely in the running. let’s compare him to his main competition and see how it shapes up. [update: it turns out derrick goold did a very similar exercise yesterday at Birdland; didn't see it until somebody posted a link in the comments to this thread. read my take, then head over to derrick's site to read his.]
to my eye, his main competitors for the award would appear to be lance berkman, chipper jones (who, like soriano, will lose votes due to lack of playing time), ryan braun, chase utley, and ryan ludwick. (yes, ryan ludwick --- keep reading.) lesser contenders would seem to be ryan howard (lots of hrs), david wright (plays in new york, has piled up a lot of rbis), and matt holliday (gaudy numbers, albeit park-inflated). there are no pitchers who merit serious consideration for the award. these are not necessarily players i would vote for myself, but they’re players who i think will be popular among the actual voters, the members of the bbwaa --- an electorate that tends to be as fickle (and, at times, illogical) as the one that chooses public officeholders. there’s no consistent set of criteria; they change from year to year, which also tends to work against pujols (whose excellence is almost unvarying).
likewise, in the discussion that follows i am not attempting to determine which player actually is the most valuable in any objective sense; indeed, i don’t buy into the premise (widely held among many people who share my love of sabermetrics) that it’s possible to arrive at an objective conclusion. thanks to sabermetrics, we can calculate players’ value with far more precision than we used to, but the degree of precision is still short of 100 percent. it’s still an eye-of-the-beholder award, and i’m comfortable with that. my goal here today is to gauge how "mvp"ish these guys might look to voters’ eyes.
let’s start where the voters generally do, with the traditional stat categories. the chart below lists the top contenders’ totals and (in parentheses) nl ranks, through sunday:
| hr | rbi | runs | avg | obp | slg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| pujols | 21 (19) | 67 (19) | 65 (26) | .344 (3) | .454 (2) | .597 (3) |
| berkman | 22 (15) | 76 (9) | 88 (1) | .337 (4) | .438 (3) | .609 (2) |
| braun | 29 (3) | 82 (5) | 61 (32) | .296 (18) | .335 (55) | .581 (6) |
| utley | 28 (4) | 77 (8) | 77 (5) | .290 (24) | .371 (25) | .574 (8) |
| chipper | 18 (29) | 55 (39) | 58 (37) | .369 (1) | .466 (1) | .596(4) |
| ludwick | 27 (6) | 78 (7) | 75 (7) | .306 (11) | .384 (13) | .614 (1) |
to the extent that the voters consider league leaderboards, utley and berkman would seem to present the best arguments. each ranks in the top 10 in both counting and rate categories, with berkman lodged in the top 5 in both types. however, ludwick isn’t far behind them; he currently leads the league in one major category (slugging) and is likely to surpass some key mvp-like thresholds (.300 average, 30 homers, 100 rbis). braun is just 4 batting-average points shy of doing the same. albert’s poor standing on the rbi chart is highly context-dependent ---- teams pitch around him (denying him rbis) --- and voters tend to get that; they voted bonds the mvp several times despite so-so rbi totals. but a low home-run total will be held against albert. if he piles up 15 or so in the final 48 games and can get himself into the league’s top 10, it’ll make his resume look a lot more attractive to the voters.
now let’s take a look at some of the sabr categories, which are gaining some traction among the voters as they become more widely understood:
| VORP | EQA | WS | WPA | RC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| pujols | 57.5 (2) | .363 (1) | 19 (4) | 4.51 (3) | 100 (3) |
| berkman | 63.0 (1) | .348 (3) | 24 (1) | 5.30 (1) | 107 (1) |
| braun | 39.3 (11) | .304 (20) | 17 (T8) | 2.64 (8) | 87 (T9) |
| utley | 46.3 (7) | .316 (11) | 18 (7) | 1.03 (34) | 95 (4) |
| chipper | 55.8 (3) | .358 (2) | 17 (T8) | 2.63 (9) | 91 (6) |
| ludwick | 37.7 (8) | .334 (5) | 15 (T19) | 1.79 (21) | 87 (T9) |
this is where albert shines --- but lance berkman outshines him, leading the league in VORP, win shares, WPA, and runs created. his margins over pujols are fairly slim, and they owe much to albert’s trip to the DL, but berkman's still ahead, and that's what counts. couple that with lance's good showing in the traditional categories, and you’ve got the current leader in the race imho; he is the very best, or one of the best, hitters in the league via a broad range of measurements, both old school and new school. you get the sense that this might be his year; he’s a perennial candidate who is having one of his best seasons ever and pacing the field in some of the pivotal categories.
ludwick acquits himself very well in this table --- top 10 in 3 of the 5 sabr categories listed. he’s at least as serious a candidate as braun, and that’s without even taking defense into account. indeed, the whole exercise has elided defense, which is a major exclusion. i’m not gonna go there because i don’t have the time, and because there are still 50 games to go in the season. and, as i said at the outset, i’m not attempting to measure the mvp in any objective sense, just to eyeball the race and see where things stand. utley and pujols will gain points among anyone who factors defense into the equation, but most voters ignore defense. if you do count the glove, then albert probably makes up more than enough runs to trump berkman in terms of raw value. to the extent that we can derive an objective measure that accounts for everything, then albert probably has been more valuable than any other player in the league so far this year --- ie, he’s probably been worth more runs to his team than anyone else.
but that’s not how they pick the award. if he wants to win it this year, he's got plenty of work left to do.
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Berkman
Berkman is definitely the most deserving hitter in my opinion, by keep in mind that the voters usually want a guy on a playoff team—Houston seems like a pretty distant longshot to make the playoffs. So in that sense, Pujols may have a leg up on the Lumberjack/Puma.
by mojowo11 on Aug 5, 2008 9:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not lately
They haven’t chose people on playoff teams lately. Only 1/2 of the NL MVPs this decade have been from playoff teams. (Didn’t look up AL, since that’s not the topic of discussion.)
by stlfan on Aug 5, 2008 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but were they from teams with sub-.500 records when there are other deserving candidates?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sub .500
the only player to receive the MVP award, while playing for a sub .500 team was Andre Dawson for the Expos (this is purely from memory, and it may be jacked up).
C'mon you Redbirds, lets prove em' wrong, again!
by yer dog first on Aug 5, 2008 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dawson
won it while playing for the Cubs in 1987—a year in which they finished DEAD LAST and 18.5 games behind the Cardinals, who had two MVP candidates that year (Ozzie and Jack Clark) who stole votes from each other which led to Dawson winning it on a last place club. Clark should have been a shoo-in that year, since he was the only player in the NL to post an OPS over 1.000 and played for the best team in the league that season.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Berkman's really cooled down since the ASG
.250/.304/.382 w/ no homers. Looks tired. Props to Berkman for pointing out that the umps put the crowd at risk during the lightning storm last night.
by random on Aug 5, 2008 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I liked his quote about it just makes sense not to stand around during a lightning storm
more thunder and lightning here in chicago last night than you could imagine! thanks for the post asb berkman info
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Weather
I heard a rumor that the tornado wasn’t really a tornado, but a vortex caused by a century of sucking in the Wrigley Field area. Can anyone verify?
by Robb on Aug 5, 2008 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ba-zing!
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
mvp
I always know al is in the race, but had no idea about ludwick. I knew he was playing out of his head baseball but he has to be in the discussion.
I knew most saw the brew crew throw down. Ned Yost’s commets were just plain creepy. His neighbor fighting comment, just had me shaking my head. after the sweep they have lost 7 of their last 9. It looks to me like they are hitting their late season swoon again. I believe the wild card chances have just went up.
"Textbooks are Soviet propaganda" - Rev. Jerry Falwell
by elirock83 on Aug 5, 2008 9:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yeah
what a weird thing to have happen, and a few guys were saying that behavior was normal for the team! wtf?
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fielder's "apology" was pretty weak
link to AP article on ESPN.com
Not classy, IMO. Hope he grows out of it.
by random on Aug 5, 2008 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice post, lboros
It’s hard to believe that we can say Pujols and underated in the same sentence, but you would be correct.
Go Cards!
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Aug 5, 2008 9:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Utley is who I think will win
He gets all the hype in the MSM and everyone wants to see “three straight different MVP winners from the same team” or some crap like that. Ludwick is one of the least-talked about players IMO so even though his SLG is through the roof right now, he won’t get anything close to a look.
One outside-the-box answer I came up with, though, is a name I though of when you said “there are no pitchers who merit serious consideration for the award.” What if C.C. Sabathia continues his current pace (pitching at or near a CG every time, allowing only a handful of runs) and the Brewers make the postseason? I’m not sure if there has ever been a precedent for a mid-season acquisition winning MVP honors, but the boost he’s given that team since arriving may make him the MVP of that team. What do you think?
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 9:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1 on Utley
I think that he is in the driver’s seat for the MVP award. After jobbing Pujols out of it year after year, we’ll have three consecutive years of Phillies. As an aside, how is it that the Phillies have a real “MV3” but the Cards’ MV3 only produced one? Oh yeah, Barry Bonds…
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Aug 5, 2008 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Barry Bonds
And the fact they played on the banks of the Mississippi and not the coast of the Atlantic or Pacific Ocean
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm still angry
It’s kind of a two-fer because I believe one piggybacks the other. How they gave Sosa the ‘98 MVP over McGwire is completely beyond me. One fo the frequently cited arguments is that Sosa carried his team to the playoffs. (Personally, I think that the writers should have banded together and given a co-MVP since The Great Home Rune Chase of ‘98 saved baseball. Roids or not. Anyway, I digress…) Then, in 2001, Bonds is given the MVP even though his team didn’t make the playoffs. Pujols gets 4th. 4th! Despite the fact that he essentially filled in for McGwire and is the reason the Cards made the playoffs. Surely, there is a better system than letting sportswriters vote. Maybe we could have the fans vote (sarcastically making fun of the ASG)...
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Aug 5, 2008 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bonds' 2001...
maybe THE greatest season ever in the history of the game so i had no problem with him winning even though the G’men didnt make the playoffs.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
by nomar34 on Aug 5, 2008 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll argue this until death
But his 2002 season was better, and they went to the World Series that year.
To a lesser extent, his 2004 season was also probably better than his year of 73 HR. A 1.421 OPS with an OBP over .600? I honestly believe that if pitchers would have pitched to him in those seasons he probably hits 60+ homers in each one.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i will agree
2002 was better…but 2001 was still one of the greatest and i still dont have a problem with him winning the MVP that year…
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
by nomar34 on Aug 5, 2008 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
exactly
which is why there should be two awards, MVP (Most Valuable Player) and MOP (Most Outstanding Player), and in certain years, they’d both go to the same guy. In terms of being valuable, you can’t make a case that Howard or Rollins deserved to be MVP the last two seasons since they play on the same team. But you could certainly make a case that they were the most outstanding players (i.e. players having the best year). Similar to when A-Rod won the award while playing for a Rangers team that stunk. He was the best hitter on the team that year, but saying he’s more valuable than guys who are producing at a bit lesser rate but are a key cog in a winning team is just nonsense.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
isnt the Hank Aaron Award...
the MOP or its equivilant? or am i mistaken?
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
by nomar34 on Aug 5, 2008 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it is
but it doesn’t get the press that the MVP award does…and rarely are they the same player, when they sometimes should be.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pujols was better than Howard in '06
Here is a humorous look at the whole situation, with a few stats to back up the claim that Albert was shafted.
by jdub176 on Aug 5, 2008 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow
whoever submitted that and then wrote in to make extra points about ryan howard… man, he was/is a genius.
"so if you can’t understand what someone else is saying why don’t you just shut up about it instead of being a jerk-off?"
by baw on Aug 5, 2008 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah he's a genius
Kind of like the guy who wrote in to make extra points about the Whiteyball Cardinals ….I believe that can be found here.
by jdub176 on Aug 5, 2008 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that Utley
will continue the trend of not particularly deserving Phillie MVP winners. Can you tell I am still steamed about Albert not winning in ‘06? Don’t even get me started about how lame I think Ryan Howard is.
Isn’t there some sort of MVP type award bestowed by the SABR community?
Well, at least the MVP voting makes a little more sense than the Gold Glove voting.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Aug 5, 2008 10:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Your copy would be easier to read
if you’d use capital letters where you are supposed to put them (beginning of sentences, names, etc.) . I’m not being a wise-ass. Your long threads with all lower case make all the sentences run into one another. I say this constructively, because I appreciate the effort you put into your columns and the thought-provoking questions you raise.
On a Bill James interview recently, he stated Albert Pujols is the best player in baseball. No shock to us, but it’s always great to hear. Most “Baseball Tonight” guys would agree, yet AP gets very few of those MVP awards. I wonder how much “hype”” plays a role in those selections? How many big-market (NY, Boston, LA, etc.) players get these awards over smaller-market teams?
I think he's going to wind up being one of these guys who gets a ton of accolades over the years but not much in the hardware department. I doubt AP cares.by ccthemovieman on Aug 5, 2008 10:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The lack of capitalization
That’s just LB’s thing. I don’t think you’re gonna see a change any time soon.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you know, I don't
notice it as a problem—ever. I suppose the periods are enough for me. Now, lack of paragraphs does bother me in long posts. At any rate, I’m fascinated when this comment comes up. It’s interesting to see what different reading styles people have and how certain conventions affect different styles of reading.
You would think it would bother me, seeing as I’m an English teacher, but I never get hung up on that kind of thing on the internet. I dunno…not what I’m here for I guess. Now, when I see errors in the paper or in books, drives me nuts. Different environments I guess.
mel
by mel1975 on Aug 5, 2008 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I actually
like the lack of capital letters. LB’s signature.
by njnick on Aug 5, 2008 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about e. e. cummings?
Does he drive you crazy?
by saladdays on Aug 5, 2008 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
some of it i like
some of it i don’t. depends on the poem.
mel
by mel1975 on Aug 5, 2008 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
really? is he on the "walk of fame" in the loop?
i somehow either did not know this or had forgotten. interesting fact: howard nemerov wrote a poem about the neighborhood i grew up in (more or less)
by mattybobo on Aug 5, 2008 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
on the capitalization
Maybe you’re new here and aren’t aware that LB’s discussed this several times. He’s a writer - does it for a living and eschews capitalization here as a sort of escape from his real life. As Mr. Redbird says, he won’t change it. As for his threads being easy to read - IMO, (for what it’s worth—not very damned much) LB is a tremendous writer. His thoughts flow beautifully and his point is always intelligible and cogent and I’ll trade some capitalization to get that any day of the week.
by chuckb on Aug 5, 2008 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks for the info
Yes, I am pretty new here. I was a writer, too, a reporter for 10 years and then a sports editor at our town’s daily newspaper for another 20. Editing so much copy over the years, something like no caps would jump out at me a lot more than for others, I suppose.
No need for people here to get all defensive about the poster, I didn’t mean to “diss” him. From what I’ve seen, I’m always interested to read what he has to offer, and he obviously puts a lot of effort into his work.
For the person who asked about the Bill James interview, I saw it Sunday night on ‘60 Minutes,” right before the Cards’ game on ESPN. You might find the transcript on their website.
BTW, being big-time baseball fans, I thought you might be interested in the following: at the end of the interview, they asked James “who is the best player in baseball?” he said, “Albert Pujols.” Then, they asked who is the most underrated player? His answer: “Chase Utley.” Finally, they said, “If you could start a team, who would be the first player you pick? He said, “David Wright of the Mets. He has everything I look for in a player, plus youth.”
by ccthemovieman on Aug 5, 2008 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't mean to sound offensive
but was pretty sure that I had. Unlike LB, I don’t have such a gift.
by chuckb on Aug 5, 2008 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
During the playoffs
LB’s excellent game recaps often get linked on the Wall Street Journal’s “Daily Fix” (A collection of the best sportswriting on the web each day), and is even known by the fixers for his lowercase trademark.
"I have CDO. It's like OCD, but the letters are in alphabetical order. Like they should be."
by BigMOman on Aug 5, 2008 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where is the Bill James interview?
Anyplace accessible?
by Youneverknow on Aug 5, 2008 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah!
Learns how to right, iboras!
My fellow Americans. As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball, but tonight I say, we must move forward, not backward, upward not forward, and always twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom.
by Alxfritz on Aug 5, 2008 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he's not going to change
arguing about this is a mute point
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Aug 5, 2008 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
They’re ain’t any point in correcting he.
by saladdays on Aug 5, 2008 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+2
lboros will likely continue his style irregardless of outside influences.
by mojowo11 on Aug 5, 2008 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
did you mean regardless?
uhoh, I don’t want to open another can of worms
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+Ñ
this begs the question, is proper english punctuation an appropriate topic on a baseball blog? now politics, there’s a good idea for a discussion in VEB.
by mattybobo on Aug 5, 2008 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only someone who favors
the Natural Law Party would say such a thing.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Aug 5, 2008 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
does it mean a combination of regardless and irrelevant?
or the opposite of regardless? regardless of relevance?
/end
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
whoops
I just did the same thing!
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pujols vs. Berkman
While Berkman leads in RC, Pujols leads in RC/27 - attributed to his being on the DL 15 days. And Berkman’s team’s been out of it for a long time - the primary reason Pujols didn’t win last year. I’m pretty much resigned to the fact that Pujols won’t win it. The voters like new names - those who have career years. They don’t like players who are consistently great. Pujols has set such a high standard that he cannot possibly be spectacular, though he’s always spectacular - a great Catch-22, unless you want Pujols to win the MVP.
I also think that if the Marlins make a run in the East, Hanley Ramirez will finish up there in the MVP voting. Ultimately, I think the winner, though, will be either David Wright or Chase Utley—depending on which team wins the East.
by chuckb on Aug 5, 2008 10:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If Pujols can finish on fire
carry this team to the playoffs, like he is capable of doing, he’ll win the award. If not, it is Utley’s award to lose…because writer’s love a good story.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 5, 2008 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Astros are playing pretty well right now
8-2 in their last ten, and they’ve moved within seven games of the Wild Card lead. That’s not an impossible task, especially considering how much the Brewers and Cardinals have been struggling lately. The ‘Stros have been a second half team for the past five or so years, and even though we laughed at them for making those deadline moves, if they were to do the impossible and catch fire and make the playoffs, I’d consider Berkman the likely winner.
That having been said, if the Astros somehow make the playoffs, how many people on this blog that made fun of the Astros for making all those deadline moves would turn it around and say that Mo should have done something, like the Astros did?
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Stros have no pitching
they’re deader than dead.
by chuckb on Aug 5, 2008 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope you're right
The Astros and Cubs both in the playoffs would make my skin crawl.
Just to clarify, I don’t think the Astros will make the playoffs. I’d say they’ve got less than a 1% chance. I just threw it out there for argument’s sake.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But they traded for Randy Wolf, HC
And Ed Wade says that they are still in contention…
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Aug 5, 2008 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There is no bigger tool among GMs
than Ed Wade. This is, by far, the most poorly run system in the major leagues (the Astros, I mean). They should be making some meaningful attempt at rebuilding, b/c they have so depleted their farm system through bad drafts, signing free agents, and an inability or unwillingness to SIGN their draft picks. Still, owner Drayton McLane refuses to accept the obvious. All he sees are dollar signs associated w/ victories THIS YEAR. So he hires Ed Wade, someone whose best days (for what they were) have long since passed him by, and tells him “we can win this year.” Wade’s job, therefore, becomes one where he has to go all out to win now, completely willing to sacrifice the future in order to do so.
As BP said, after the Astros traded for LaTroy Hawkins, “The drive for 75 is alive!”
by chuckb on Aug 5, 2008 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Joking...
I agree wholeheartedly and have watched giddily as the McLane/Wade one-two punch drives the once-fearsome club into the ground. It makes me thankful for Walt Jocketty, Lunhow, and now Mo that the Cards organization, which reached a similar peak at a similar time, appears to have another peak in the very near future before it, whereas the ‘Stros seemed destined to hunker down in the cellar with the Pirates for a while.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Aug 5, 2008 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Mariners are offended that you think someone could run an
organization more ineptly than they.
by azruavatar on Aug 5, 2008 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I apologize, M's
but at least you had the good sense to fire Bavasi! Keep trying, though. You’ll get there.
by chuckb on Aug 5, 2008 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
your line "The voters like new names - those who have career years"
made me instantly think that Ludwick will win MVP
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I actually don't want him to win MVP
Every award he wins makes him that much harder/more expensive to resign at the end of his contract. Being transcendently awesome and completely ignored is the best thing for the team now, and for keeping him on the team in the future. We don’t get any dumb sideshows, and we can appreciate him, even if the press doesn’t necessarily fawn over him.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Aug 5, 2008 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Berkman's July was a bust
Berkmans now gone 34 days with ZERO homers and only 8 RBI’s…..kinda Duncanesque. He had such an amazing start to the season that his counting stats still hold up against anyone’s. His team being awful will no doubt take him out of the MVP race.
I say its between Utley and Ludwick if the season ended today.
Wanted to throw out Pat Burrell also. He’s probably a tick below these guys but is having a great year. He’s top 7 or better in the NL in HRs, OBP, SLG and OPS.
Milt Thompson FTW!
by gossard56 on Aug 5, 2008 10:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Burrell, Utley, Howard, Rollins
If you put Utley and Burrell into the Cardinal lineup, doesn’t Pujols just have ridiculous numbers at that point? I mean really, it’s sick to say that either of those three are most valuable to their team when their team isn’t leading the division by double digits with all three of them on it. Great players, sure, but it was pretty obvious how much Albert means to this team offensively when he went down in June. Great pitching got the club through that stretch of games, but the offense suffered terribly.
Utley missed the last two months of the season last year and they made a huge run to the playoffs without him. So how is he any more valuable that the other 3 guys? If Jimmy Rollins was the NL MVP last year, why wasn’t Curtis Granderson the AL MVP? Similar numbers for both players…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is why i don't like the "winning team" approach
if pujols is on a better team, isn’t he less valuable because he’s less necessary for winning? i think that argument defeats itself. a perfect diamond has more value to a poor man who can sell it for food than it does for a king who uses it as the centerpiece for his jeweled crown. man, this mvp discussion is inspiring me to near poetry! it’s worth the sore arm from self-back-patting…
by mattybobo on Aug 5, 2008 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if I remember correctly
I disagree with you comment that when Pujols went down, the offense suffered terribly, and that great pitching got us through. I can’t look up that info right now at work though
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're right
Albert was out from June 11 through the 25th. During that team, our staff ERA was 4.99. In 13 games, they walked 44 and gave up 18 HR’s. Hitters had an .815 OPS against our staff for those 15 days. We gave up 67 runs in those 13 games—5.15 per game. For the season, we’re averaging giving up about 4.5 runs per game.
Our offense wasn’t great during that period, however. Our team OPS was .757 w/ a .318 OBP. We did slug fairly well, however, w/ 22 2B’s and 19 HR’s. We scored 60 runs in those 13 games—4.62 per game, slightly less than the 4.8 we’re averaging for the season.
While our offense could have used Pujols, our pitching certainly did not carry us during that period. In fact, it was worse than it’s been for the season.
by chuckb on Aug 5, 2008 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
does that mean
that we missed Wainwright a lot more than we missed The Mang?
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe so
before Wainwright was injured, the Cards were 37-27. The pitching staff had a 3.93 ERA and a .735 OPS against. It had allowed 52 HR in 64 games. Wainwright’s last start was on June 7.
Since June 7, the staff has a 4.69 ERA and the team is 25-25. Our pitchers have yielded an .819 OPS against and have allowed 66 HR in 50 games.
I think it’s fair to say that the loss of Wainwright has something to do w/ that but I’d caution anyone against saying that Wainwright’s injury CAUSED the staff to get much worse. In that time, we’ve also seen Wellemeyer come down from his peak and the bullpen implode. I think if we looked carefully, we’d find that most of our pitchers are pitching worse since June 7. Some of that is probably attributable to the Wainwright injury—the pen having to log too many innings and tiring, for example. But I doubt that Wainwright’s injury had much of an impact on Wellemeyer or Izzy. Still, it’s fair to say that we’ve missed Wainwright considerably.
by chuckb on Aug 5, 2008 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh yeah
Welley getting injured added to the Wainwright injury is what really sent us for a loop… we were lucky to play .500 there I suppose.
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
dont you mean...
Welley getting injured added to the Wainwright injury is what really sent us for a Looper… we were lucky to play .500 there I suppose.
No but I agree. Losing Wainwright and replacing him with, Boggs and Parisi didn’t help us. And Welley getting hurt durring the same time period just made it worse.
by Evilfrog on Aug 5, 2008 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
heh
yeah I thought of that looper play on words there, heehee
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I mean really, it’s sick to say that either of those three are most valuable to their team when their team isn’t leading the division by double digits with all three of them on it.
that is a mighty tall order, considering there is typically much more to a division-leading team than its four best hitters.
"so if you can’t understand what someone else is saying why don’t you just shut up about it instead of being a jerk-off?"
by baw on Aug 5, 2008 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok -- go ahead and nit pick if you want
but don’t tell me that a team with four perennial MVP candidates shouldn’t be 10 games ahead of a team without one MVP candidate like, say, the Marlins.
If St. Louis had three of those players, plus Albert, healthy all season this year, playing a tougher division, don’t you think we’d be leading the division? Yet they have those four guys and have an identical record to the Cardinals, who have what amounts to two valid MVP candidates and a lot more holes in the roster.
My point is that if you have the 4 most valuable players in the national league, shouldn’t you be running away with your division? It’s a take on how ridiculous the MVP voting actually is, not a statement of how good the Phillies would be.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't call Burrell a "perennial MVP candidate"
He’s never finished higher than 7th.
by jdub176 on Aug 5, 2008 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is not nitpicking.
the phillies do NOT have the 4 most valuable players in the national league. even ignoring that, it is silly to say that any team with “four perennial MVP candidates” (do you consider burrell to be the fourth?) should automatically be 10 games ahead of the next-best team.
the texas rangers have a somewhat comparable quartet (offensively) in josh hamilton, milton bradley, ian kinsler and michael young. (comparable in that they are very good, that’s all.)
the rangers score more runs than anyone in baseball… and they are 11.5 games behind LAA. why? because they also have the league’s worst pitching.
how is this nitpicking? it’s just common sense.
"so if you can’t understand what someone else is saying why don’t you just shut up about it instead of being a jerk-off?"
by baw on Aug 5, 2008 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
again
you have totally missed the point….
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
enlighten me, then.
what point is a dunderhead like me missing from this statement:
My point is that if you have the 4 most valuable players in the national league, shouldn’t you be running away with your division?
my reply? (a) the phillies don’t have the four most valuable players in the NL, (b) this year, they really only have ONE MVP candidate, and© the marlins – which you held up as a feeble example – probably have two candidates themselves.
it seems like whenever anyone questions you, you complain that they’re idiots and don’t understand your flawless point. maybe, just maybe, it’s not always someone else’s fault.
"so if you can’t understand what someone else is saying why don’t you just shut up about it instead of being a jerk-off?"
by baw on Aug 5, 2008 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the Marlins have a couple MVP candidates
Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, despite their second half struggles, will get some consideration.
Howard and Rollins have been playing like anything but MVP candidates this year (OPS+ of 112 and 96, respectively). Just thought I’d throw that out there.
If St. Louis had three of those players, plus Albert, healthy all season this year, playing a tougher division, don’t you think we’d be leading the division?
In addition to Ludwick, Ankiel, and Glaus? I’d hope that adding Utley, Rollins, and Burrell would bolster our team ahead of the Cubs…..I’m sure it would. But if we took away the aforementioned Cards players, I wouldn’t expect us to be a whole lot better than before. Right now I’d take Ludwick over Burrell for his defense. With the other players, we’re getting too hypothetical, since their positions don’t match up.
by jdub176 on Aug 5, 2008 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
one more thing
The 2003 Cards boasted a lineup of Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen, and Renteria (who had probably the best season of his career). These guys were much, much better than the Phils’ big four has been this year. But this Cards team finished in third place. Does this mean any of those four were any less valuable that season? Albert certainly put up monster numbers that year and had great hitters surrounding him.
This year’s Phils are playing very close to their pythagorean expected W/L. If Howard were putting up 2006-like numbers, they’d be better off. Likewise if Rollins were playing like he did last year. I guess I’m saying that Utley, Burrell, and the bullpen has carried them this year.
by jdub176 on Aug 5, 2008 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
The 2003 Cardinals only finished 3 games out of the playoffs despite weathering over 200 innings of Brett Tomko and his 5.28 ERA, and additional 125 innings of Simontacchi with another 5.00+ ERA, and the worst bullpen I’ve ever seen in my life. (Jeff Fassero AND Esteban Yan? I still have nightmares.)
My only point being – those guys were valuable to have almost taken that team to the playoffs despite a HORRIBLE pitching staff. As evidenced by the following season, in which an upgraded staff improved the team by 20 games.
by Robb on Aug 5, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My only point being – those guys were valuable to have almost taken that team to the playoffs despite a HORRIBLE pitching staff. As evidenced by the following season, in which an upgraded staff improved the team by 20 games.
That’s exactly the point I was trying to get across. With that pitching staff, the ‘03 Cards had no business thinking about the playoffs, but they had those guys in the lineup who made it possible to think otherwise.
by jdub176 on Aug 5, 2008 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup
I was still living in the Chicago area that season. That 4 game series in Wrigley Field in September was probably the worst time of the 8 years I lived in the area. Geez that was painful.
I think I’m going to be sick now.
by Robb on Aug 5, 2008 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wasn't it a five-game series?
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeeeeah
That sucked…five years dulls the pain…slightly
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought watching the bartman incident dulled the pain considerably
That was a beautiful way for the Cubs to exit the playoffs
"I have CDO. It's like OCD, but the letters are in alphabetical order. Like they should be."
by BigMOman on Aug 5, 2008 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I missed it
I left for a meeting like the half-inning before it, cursing because the Cubs were gonna be in the World Series. I come back home and decide to check the final score and couldn’t believe my eyes. That was pretty awesome.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I fell asleep
in the 7th inning with the Cubs headed to the series. Woke up the next AM. TV still on. Announcers talking about shocking events at Wrigley Field, I swear, I thought I was dreaming. It took me two cups of coffee to believe it really happened. Sweet.
by 10worldchamps on Aug 5, 2008 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What amazes is me
is that when I think of that craptastic bullpen , I always think of Pedro Borbon. I don;t know why though. I went at looked at that year on BR and it says he only pitched 4 innings. 4! Why does that name still give me nightmares? I guess I should be thankful for this years bullpen, huh?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Aug 5, 2008 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ricky Bottallico still haunts my dreams
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Aug 5, 2008 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I always think Jeff Fassero
That guy sucked
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
see signature
At least he's better than Esteban Yan.
by jacksonian on Aug 5, 2008 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Question though
Who is the “he” in your sig, is it me? I’m pretty sure it could be.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
really its anybody
my dad and i have a running joke that whenever one of us says something to the effect of “he sucks” the other will bring up EY and remember that it ncould always be worse.If you want the he to be you, I’m sure that can be arranged.
At least he's better than Esteban Yan.
by jacksonian on Aug 6, 2008 1:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Utley did not miss the last two months
He missed a month of the 2007 season – didn’t play from 7/26 – 8/27. During that time, I believe the Phils were a game over .500. They were 10 games over the rest of the way (after Utley returned). So, you know, they made that huge run to the playoffs WITH him. But since correlation doesn’t equal causation, I’d be hard pressed to say he was the MVP.
by jdub176 on Aug 5, 2008 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
also
there are ways to argue that jimmy rollins wasn’t the mvp in 2007. however, comparing him to curtis granderson in the AL is not one of them.
"so if you can’t understand what someone else is saying why don’t you just shut up about it instead of being a jerk-off?"
by baw on Aug 5, 2008 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for linking and making my point
Curtis Granderson had a higher OPS last year than Jimmy Rollins, yet finished out of the top 10 in the voting in the AL. Obviously A-Rod had a great season and should have been the MVP, since the Yanks don’t make the playoffs without him.
You apparently are missing the point of the exercise here, which is to say that there’s no way that Rollins was more valuable last year than Matt Holliday or any other good player on a team that made the playoffs last year.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you're right,
besides the fact that jimmy rollins and curtis granderson play in different parts of the field, in different leagues, against different competition, and received votes for entirely different reasons... the comparison is apt!
i wasn’t arguing with you, fourstick. the granderson thing just struck me as odd. it doesn’t really prove anything.
"so if you can’t understand what someone else is saying why don’t you just shut up about it instead of being a jerk-off?"
by baw on Aug 5, 2008 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was simply saying
that their numbers are similar, even though they play different positions. If the MVP was modeled on VORP, we’d have a much different outlook on the MVP race since it would be valued by position.
Granderson was the closest I could find a season ago that had numbers similar to Rollins’, but if you want a player in the same league, same division, playing the same position as Rollins, I would definitely have voted for Hanley Ramirez over him last year had I had a vote. More homers, more steals, higher average. He was probably more valuable to the Marlins than Rollins was to the Phillies.
You could also make the argument that he was incredibly valuable to the Red Sox last year since he was the key reason they were able to get Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell, two guys who were instrumental in them winning the World Series.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
didn't granderson have a similarly "interesting" collection of stats to rollins?
ie, relatively high numbers of homers, doubles, triples, steals, something like that? i remember reading that they were both on pace for a rare combination. i really think this contributed greatly to rollins’ appeal in the eyes of the mvp voters, yet another facet of the “great story” idea. obviously their interesting and unusual stat lines did not make them better.
by mattybobo on Aug 5, 2008 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right
20+ triples, homers, and steals had never been done before….but that doesn’t make you the MVP, which was why I brought up Granderson in the first place.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course it doesn't make you MVP
And voters who voted for them on the basis of 20/20/20 need to have their ballots taken away.
by jdub176 on Aug 5, 2008 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Best MVP Season by a Cardinal?
1968 – Bob Gibson: 304 IP/ 28 CG/ 268 SO/ 62 BB/ 1.12 ERA/ 0.853 WHIP
1948 – Stan Musial: .376/ .450/ .702/ 39 HR/ 131 RBI/ 429 TB
1937 – Joe Medwick: .374/ .414/ .641/ 31 HR/ 154 RBI/ 406 TB
1925 – Rogers Hornsby: .403 BA/ .489/ .756/ 39 HR/ 143 RBI/ 381 TB
1934 – Dizzy Dean: 311 IP/ 24 CG/ 195 SO/ 75 BB/ 2.66 ERA/ 1.165 WHIP
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Aug 5, 2008 10:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
2009 - Albert Pujols
.425/.515/.700 45 HR/150 RBI
We can all hope, right? Maybe those numbers would actually get him his deserved MVP.
by stlfan on Aug 5, 2008 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Batting .425?
You could book it. I’d be shocked if his BA was that high and his OBP was “only” .515 though
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OBP
His OBP would probably be about .550, which would nearly equal Izturis’s OPS.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Aug 5, 2008 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
actually
I would be that it would be above .600—maybe even .700. For Pujols to hit .425, he would have to walk about once every 4 plate appearances, if that was the case, his OBP would be .675. He’d probably have over 200 walks on the season, because if he’s hitting .425 why wouldn’t you walk him every time up? At least with a walk he only gets 1st base, as opposed to him getting an extra base hit 6 out of the other 10 times you pitch to him. Logically, it would be the best thing to do.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I vote
for Albert’s 2006 season when he should have been the MVP.
.331/.431/.671/1.102 with 49 HRs and 137 RBIs in only 143 games. 49 HRs and only 50 Ks, someday Albert will hit 50 HRs with less than 50Ks!
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Aug 5, 2008 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
bingo. i don't think there's any tenable argument that howard deserved it over albert.
by mattybobo on Aug 5, 2008 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
The World Series Championship trophy washed away my outrage, so burying it as to forget about Howard’s inexplicably winning the MVP over Pujols. It was outrageous. Oh well, I’m sure Al prefers his ring to Howard’s trophy.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Aug 5, 2008 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I do too :)
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
as an aside...
i try to tell myself that albert’s overall awesomeness is unquestionable, but i’m a little worried that we’ll never see him hit 50 homers in a season. am i on to something, or is there reason to think that he will do it someday? one reason i hope for him to get back to his 40+ homer form is that it would make it a lot harder for the mvp voters to ignore him… but beyond that, i would just be sad if we were already past his peak as a power hitter.
by mattybobo on Aug 5, 2008 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the only way we'd see that
Is if we saw someone equally scary right behind Albert in the batting order. You’d walk Albert to get to just about anyone but Albert…so we just need another one.
by mojowo11 on Aug 5, 2008 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I had forgotten
just how much APu was ripped off that year
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gibson
That season literally changed the way the game was played—you can’t be more valuable than having the rules changed so hitters have a chance.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely
Gibson threw over 300 innings in 1968 while totaling 28 complete games. That’s mind-boggling. And then they lowered the mound…
That said, Hornsby did hit over .400 while belting 39 homers, which is absolutely astounding.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Aug 5, 2008 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it is astounding
until you look at Ted Williams in 1941, who put up this slash line while belting 37 homers:
.406/.553/.735
He was nearly 50 points better than anyone else in average and nearly 100 points better than any other player in OBP and SLG. Not only that, he lost the MVP to Joe Dimaggio that year, who put up this line:
.357/.440/.643
What an absolute joke. Dimaggio had two other teammates in the top 7 in the MVP voting and yet still won the award over Williams, probably because the Yankees won the pennant that year.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hornsby was a 2B
And he won the Triple Crown in 1925.
I do agree wholeheartedly with you that Dimaggio winning over Williams in 1941 was a joke.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Aug 5, 2008 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was speaking in terms of amazing offensive seasons in general
if you compare players by position, Rajah and Ruth (because of his pitching prowess) are the two best players in the history of the game. Nobody else comes close to those two guys.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not because of the pennant.
It was 56-game hitting streak.
by Youneverknow on Aug 5, 2008 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Regardless
It’s still ridiculous.
While hitting in 56 games in a row is incredibly difficult, so is posting an OPS above 1.250.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2005
Albert won it in 2005, with a phenomenal year. I just chose what I thought to be the top 5 Cardinal individual seasons (which is why Willie McGee was not included).
Albert in 2005: .330/ .430/ .609/ 41 HR/ 117 RBI/ 360 TB
I believe that the 2005 MVP was largely due to the 2004 MV3 hype. It was a carryover of sorts that was bolstered by the Cards’ 105-win season.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Aug 5, 2008 10:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
am i crazy for thinking derrek lee got screwed in 2005?
not only did he not get the award, but didn’t he finish third in voting, behind andruuuuuu[ewe]w jones, who did have a great year but whose main accomplishment was hitting 5 more homers than dlee?
agh. awards based on voting by a privilieged cabal are so damn frustrating.
lastly, if berkman keeps up this pace and finishes with his stats still just a tick above albert, i will be pulling for him. i’ve never had a problem with fat elvis, and it would be nice to see him snag one rather than a nice “story” such as chipper, utley, etc. i just don’t have much hope of albert winning it since he’d basically have to outdo himself, which is sort of a tall order.
by mattybobo on Aug 5, 2008 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2005
Pujols was the best player on the best team. I think he should have won it over D-Lee.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Aug 5, 2008 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
see, i totally understand that viewpoint. i wouldn't go so far as to claim albert didn't deserve it... i'm a little shaky on that.
but i think lee deserved it as much. i guess i just disagree with you on the “best player on the best team” approach, though i respect that opinion and don’t mean to bash you. correct me if i’m wrong, but i see the appeal as the following: on a successful team, an mvp-type performance is more meaningful because it contributes to actual winning, whereas on a bad team it’s not as “valuable” because the end result is a losing season, or an also-ran season, or whatever (such as 2008 lance berkman).
on the other hand, it seems to me that on a better team, the mvp candidate is surrounded by better talent, which helps his performance (more guys on base, protection if it exists, gets more runs from other guys slugging too, etc.). further, isn’t a great player on a bad team way more valuable to that team than the same amount of talent with a good supporting cast? i just think once you try too hard to define “valuable” as anything other than “the best year by a single player” you run into too many grey areas.
by mattybobo on Aug 5, 2008 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't mean that as a uniform approach
Last year, for instance, I felt Pujols should have been the MVP. Rollins won it for carrying the Phils down the stretch-whatever that means-even though Pujols had better September numbers, hitting .386/ .486/ .625. His teammates just didn’t step up like he did—which, as you point out, is not a fair qualification for MVP.
Just to show that I'm not a complete and utter homer, I thought that A-Rod should have been MVP in 2003 even though the Rangers were horrible because he had such an outstanding offensive season relative to other players.There has been a lot of interesting discussion on this—how it is the “Most Valuable Player” award and not the “Most Outstanding Player” award, etc. I don’t fall full on in either camp, but, as in 2005, when a player is so consistently great and his team is so consistently great, I would not vote for anyone else.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Aug 5, 2008 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
I have no idea why that showed up the way it did. What that paragraph read was that I fully support A-Rod for MVP in 2003 even though the Rangers were horrible because A-Rod had the best season as an individual player.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Aug 5, 2008 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's cool. that seems to happen a lot...
man, pujols was awesome in september… anyway, i get what you’re saying. it’s not like there is one universal criterion for the award that just dictates the award. choosing the best criteria is the task of the individual, and all one can do is try to be reasonable and fair. it just sucks to see the bbwaa vote so erratically. as a tangent, the alex rodriguez phenomenon is very interesting to me. it seems like people go out of their way to find something negative to say about him, even if they just admitted he’s the best player in the league. is warren buffett a worse investor because he makes so much money? it’s just strange.
by mattybobo on Aug 5, 2008 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The strangest of all
A-Rod switched positions so as to not bruise Jeter’s ego even though A-Rod is by far the superior defensive SS. Imagine if it were reversed and Jeter moved to 3B to accomodate A-Rod. The media would have had a field day with A-Rod’s selfishness and Jeter’s team-first attitude. Yet, somehow A-Rod is a selfish a-hole and Jeter is God’s gift to a clubhouse. It’s bizarre.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Aug 5, 2008 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would take A-Rod at SS right now in a heartbeat
He’s probably lost a step or two in the last several years (however long he’s been in NY) but whatever edge Iz2 would have on him in defense would be completely obliterated by the offensive edge.
Really that’s not a fair argument, to compare the best offensive player in the game to the worst.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, it isn't
But, it is fair to say that even Jeter’s offensive production (although, perhaps not this year) more than makes up for his defensive shortcomings. As would A-Rod’s. Meanwhile, Izturis’s defensive capabilities do not at all make up for his offensive lack-of-production.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Aug 5, 2008 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
of course, you shoudl factor in Jeter's absurd contract
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Aug 5, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
infield of pujols, utley, a-rod, glaus
do it now, Mo! it’s totally possible, i pwomise.
by mattybobo on Aug 5, 2008 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plus Bonds in LF
With that IF, why not pay $400K for Barry?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Aug 5, 2008 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but would we really need him?
in my totally unrealistic and hypothetical totally possible roster, schumaker with his OPS around .800 is the weakest non-pitcher in the lineup. no my friend, once we acquire a-rod and utley, our next move should be signing lincecum, which should be pretty easy since i hear the giants are looking for a good left handed first baseman, i.e. chris duncan.
by mattybobo on Aug 5, 2008 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the way Albert gets the MVP this year
... is for him to go on a tear in the last month of the season and the Cards make the playoffs riding his back. Last year, the Cards folded down the stretch. Also, perhaps the voters might themselves realized Pujols was jobbed last year. He should get a few guilt votes this year.
by jjray on Aug 5, 2008 10:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe
Pujols will get extra considerstion this year becuase the youth in the outfield. I am stretghing here but this team has a young group of players setting up Albert as more of a leader. In years past Pujols was the young gun, and now he has become a mature leader setting a work place example. Even if he doesn’t get to 30hr’s or 100rbi he maybe more important to this team then ever before.I doubt he gets it though.
The debate of stats vs. intangibles and what combination of the two will go on. Unless a player has a blow out of a year other factors will come into play. Such as leadership qualities, and wether the team could make the playoffs with out him etc. So he has a good shot.
by nybirdfan on Aug 5, 2008 10:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I hate to sidetrack this wonderful MVP discussion
But I was very, very intrigued by this tidbit in the P-D this morning:
With four days off yet this month after a 10-game trip, the Cardinals may consider a four-man rotation about the time Adam Wainwright is expected to return.Who pitches best, pitches most.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Aug 5, 2008 10:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Groan
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe I read that wrong
I guess this isn’t a call for Wainwright to go to the bullpen
The sooner Pineiro gets out of our rotation the better
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
With the days off
Such a shift would likely be practicable while maintaining a normal five days-worth of rest through mid-September. (That’s just eyeballing the schedule and not actually calculating it out.)
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Aug 5, 2008 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just another trick to carry nine relievers
I guess Looper will be pissed for whatever that is worth. I am sure he sees big dollars as a free agent starter.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Aug 5, 2008 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would hope they would pick
to put pineiro in the BP instead of Looper.
by Evilfrog on Aug 5, 2008 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
I would go under the assumption that they won’t be running pineiro out there. Looper has been surprisingly effective (for the most part) yet again this year
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
unless the plan is to use Looper as a setup guy
or as Izzy insurance. He is the only guy on the roster with a full season of closer’s experience.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Aug 5, 2008 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he's probably more valuable as a starter though
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
almost certainly in general
but, considering our current roster, I can see the argument for sticking Looper back in the Pen when Wainwright returns. Piñeiro isn’t horrible as a #5 starter (not good or great either, just not horrible), and something needs to be done about the bullpen Upon wainwright’s return, we’ll have a surplus of starters, and will still be short on relievers. Looper in the bullpen makes a lot of sense to me in that context.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Aug 5, 2008 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My assumption was
that Looper and Pineiro could both be headed to the ‘pen if TLR goes to the 4-mang rotation: Carpenter, Wainer, Lohse, Welley
I do agree that Looper has been better than Pineiro, though. I like Welley better, but if he had to take on a fairly important role in the ‘pen to help the team I could be OK with that, too.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Aug 5, 2008 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh yeah
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh yeah
that makes sense. Damn that’s a good rotation. Poor Looper. Oh well. He should make good money in the free agent market.
by Evilfrog on Aug 5, 2008 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sure we'll need him some in Sept. though
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is off topic as well
But if any of you have HBO and haven’t seen the Costas Now town hall baseball episode, make it a priority. I believe its on HBO OnDemand, or you can check HBO.com for regular airing times. The end segment with Mays and Aaron is great tv. They demonstrate great respect for one another, but you can still sense a competitive tension. Its amlost as if they’re playing a very subtle game of one-upmanship. The real reason I recommned watching it, however, is that Bob Gibson steals the show. Costas notes that everyone in the audience gives Mays and Aaron a standing O except one guy—Bob Gibson, who is content to applaud from his seated position. In response, Gibson says (loose quote) “I greatly respect both these men, but I don’t kowtow to anyone.” Classic Gibson. And he has a point: Costas mentions that Mays and Aaron, two of the greatest pure hitters ever, batted something like .196 and .215 against Gibson.
by mattyp on Aug 5, 2008 10:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
totally agree
any pitcher who held those two guys to those averages has to be considered the best righthander from that era; i also liked the way gibby described the way some guys got themselves hit at the plate
the one thing from that show that bothered me was the way costas just gave the title of greatest living ballplayers to aaron and mays, with no mention of musial; i am not saying musial was better, but he belongs in the discussion
Pujols is the greatest Cardinal in my lifetime.
by bigcardsfan5 on Aug 5, 2008 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stan the Man gets very little run in that discussion
unless you’re in St. Louis or follow the Cardinals. It’s sad, sad state of affairs that he can’t be stated among those guys, as the prime of his career is on parallel with anyone.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My favorite quote
was when Willie insinuated that Gibson was a headhunter, to which Gibson replied:
“Well, sometimes these guys would lean into pitches and hit themselves. I was just trying to keep em off my half of the plate, the inside half.”
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He didn't insinuate
Mays actually said, “He was a headhunter.” I was a little shocked. Aaron didn’t agree with that description.
I loved Gibson’s retort, too. He said it so matter of factly that it almost made sense, batters hitting themselves.
If you have HBO, it’s a show well worth your time.
by Youneverknow on Aug 5, 2008 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mays' attitude
I noticed he didn’t smile when introduced at the ASG either. Maybe he’s still bitter about the censure resulting from his Atlantic City casino work, or at being eclipsed in the public eye by Aaron, or maybe he’s simply unhappy to have his playing days behind him. Mays just didn’t seem to make the transition to retirement so well.
I’ve had trouble connecting his demeanor w/ the stories about his joyful persona during the 50s….but when I think of Musial it doesn’t bother me as much :-)
by random on Aug 5, 2008 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Home / Road Splits
I’m not sure that voters care to take the time to look into this, but Coor’s field aside, I found these splits suprisingly wide. These are all Road OBP/SLG.
Pu’s (.465/.642) blows away Berkman’s (.429./.607). Braun’s are even more pronounced: (.305/.489) and blew me away!
All Stats from mlb.com
by toris34 on Aug 5, 2008 10:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Derrick Goold made the case for Ludwick as MVP today
Over at Bird Land
http://www.stltoday.com/blogzone/bird-land/bird-land/2008/08/the-lud-first-an-all-star-now-mvp/
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 5, 2008 10:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ludwick's been sensation this year
but I just couldn’t accept him winning the MVP, or even finishing ahead, of Pujols. Pujols has been better, in almost every way and Ludwick’s finishing ahead of Pujols would be a tacit admission that Pujols’ achievements have become commonplace for him. Pujols just shouldn’t be held to a higher standard, simply b/c he’s Albert Pujols, than every other player in baseball, including Ryan Ludwick. A lot of people were genuinely pissed off when Russell Martin won the Gold Glove over Yadi last year. That’s how I would feel if Ludwick finished ahead of Pujols in the MVP race.
by chuckb on Aug 5, 2008 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ludwick should win some kind of break out player of the year award
if he shouldn’t be considered for MVP.
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does the MLB
have a “Most Improved Player” award like the NFL and NBA do? I know they have a “Comeback Player of the Year” but that kind of insinuates that you were really good, had a debilitiating injury and then came back. Ankiel would be the guy who should be nominated for that award.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
both Ankiel and Ludwick
are great stories this year. I knew Ank would surprise, but I don’t think anyone could have imagined what Ludwick would be doing this season
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
I wasn’t dissing Ludwick. He deserves some MVP votes, just no 1st place votes, IMO. He’s simply not the better player and hasn’t had the better season (compared w/ Pujols) and, as good as he’s been, people who vote for Ludwick over Pujols are holding Pujols to a higher standard, and that just isn’t fair.
by chuckb on Aug 5, 2008 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I suppose you could make some weird argument
that Ludwick has outperformed expectations, as well as his salary by so much that he may be the more “valuable” player… the MVP is such a nebulous award
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pujols
This may not be a very popular statement, but I think he is having a down year. I know how his numbers/stats compare, some favorable to prior years, some up, some down, and I know that the “lack of protection” arguement is pretty popular, but I don’t buy it.
I just don’t see the same Pujols this year. He seems to fall behind more often then he did in prior years, and he seems to take an awful lot of good pitches this year. One thing this has produced is Pujols hitting alot more singles. I don’t remember Pujols being happy hitting a ground ball up the middle so much in prior years.
And to hit on a point I made above, I don’t buy the no protection arguement either. He’s had Ankiel/Ludwick in front of him most of the year, and he’s had Ankiel/Ludwick and Glaus hitting behind him. When is the last season our 4/5 hitters produced like Ludwick and Glaus are? Seems like it’s been several years.
I’m not saying Pujols sucks, or that I want him traded, just saying that his approach at the plate seems different this year. More hitting from behind in the count, and cheap singles, and more prolonged slumps. I really don’t see him winning the MVP, but if he were to pick it up, AND the Cards were to make the playoffs, he’d have a chance.
by SoonerfanTU on Aug 5, 2008 11:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
2005-2007 versus 2008
I think it’s true that he is taking more pitches overall, but I think this is a result of his getting fewer pitches to hit. This is evidenced by the numbers. Compared to 2005-2007 three-year total, his OPS is actually up this year, from 1.045 to 1.051. This is due to his OBP rising from .430 over 2005-2007 to .454 this season, which is a direct result to his hitting more base hits and walking a bit more. His BA is up 15 points from .329 over the three-year to .344 this year. Meanwhile, his slugging is slightly down, from .615 to .597 this year. This is due to his hitting a few more singles this year than normal. He hit singles about 57% of the time over the last few years and is doing so about 61% of the time this year. This is due to pitchers nibbling and seeing fewer balls over the plate.
The lack of strikes is evidenced by how much more often Pujols has hit when ahead or even in the count this year compared to the last three years. From 2005-2007, Pujols had 1,979 PA’s total. Of those, he had an 0-1 count 41.48% of the time, an 0-2 county 13.14%, and a 1-2 count 20.67% fo the time. This year, he has 424 PA. Out of these he has had a 0-1 count 11.08% of the time, an 0-2 county 5.40% of the time, and a 1-2 count 12.78% of the time. This year, pitchers are not giving him strikes early in the county at all. They are nibbling. This is the most likely explanation for his increased single and walk rate. Pitchers aren’t giving him much to hit over the fat part of the strike zone.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Aug 5, 2008 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't have the data from prior years
but the stat that really caught my eye, and may be fueling the perception that he is hitting from behind more, is that when Albert is down in the count and puts the ball in play his slash lines are .243/.250/.340 with only one HR in 103 ABs. I would guess this summarizes the number of at bats where Albert has been a little less patient.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Aug 5, 2008 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
re hitting behind in the count
so far this year, 24 percent of albert’s plate appearances have been resolved in an adverse count (0-1, 0-2, or 1-2). that’s the lowest percentage in years — lower than in 2007 (26.5 percent), 2006 (25.4 percent), or his mvp year of 2005 (26.1 percent).
it’s true that albert is not generating as much power this year as we’re accustomed to, and his runs scored and rbi totals are lower than usual — but falling behind in the count too often certainly isn’t the cause.
by lboros on Aug 5, 2008 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
trastic 0-1 percent drop
41% to 11%. The others are significantly lower, but seeing a first pitch strike 1 out of every 9 ABs is very low.
Pujols is being forced to change his approach this season. He has always been great at adjustments, this season is no different. The fact that his numbers even resemble previous seasons’ numbers are amazing to me.
by andujar on Aug 5, 2008 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Everything is higher but for Slugging
And slugging is only 15 points lower. His post-Independece Day HR drought likely accounts for this. I’d wager he’ll have a power explosion soon, and his SLG % will be higher than the last three-year’s. Every game we watch this man in a Cardinal uniform is one we should count ourselves lucky to see. He is a wonder to behold.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Aug 5, 2008 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree.....
I find it hard to ever really say anything bad about Albert….... Just think if he got all the same pitches Ludwick has been getting this year. Albert would have insane numbers.
It’s the same theory on why Barry Bonds was so F’ing unreal. The guy got like 2 pitches per game to hit that were any goood.
by ICbirdfan on Aug 5, 2008 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
SoonerfanTU
you have summed it up pretty much as I would. Pujols just has not had an MVP type year to me…but MVP awards have never impressed me too much; they’re sportswriters awards. I’s stick to hard facts; batting titles, rbi leader, HR championships.
by ridgesee on Aug 5, 2008 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
a sabermatician just lost his wings...
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
by nomar34 on Aug 5, 2008 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
lud
I think that this post and yesterday’s birdland further emphasize the point that is so frequently made here. even if pitchers would be more likely to pitch to Albert with a slugger in the four hole (protection), there is no bat that cardinals could possibly have acquired that would outperform ludwick – who is already here. Granted, Lud hasn’t hit in the four spot that all the time, but if Ludwick can’t ‘protect’ Pujols, who can? And the more pertinent question – who was available via trade that could?
by cdb on Aug 5, 2008 11:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
As I said earlier in this thread
Only Albert could protect Albert.
The next phase in player development: experimental cloning?
by mojowo11 on Aug 5, 2008 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know
hes a FA and would make league minimum.
C'mon you Redbirds, lets prove em' wrong, again!
by yer dog first on Aug 5, 2008 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
off topic
i saw the memphis redbirds get absolutely crushed by the A’s triple A team. mitch boggs was not fooling anyone. he was throwing fastballs (93 mph) but they didn’t have much movement…he gave up a couple of home runs… the defense was putrid- crabman is playing right field and he looks terrible out there- saw a classic keystone cops outfield moment… and our friend randy flores gave walked several and gave up a homerun…
When cheese gets its picture taken, what does it say?
by RosevilleRedbird on Aug 5, 2008 12:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Flores
We just need to cut bait on that one
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
nice article to push toward more rigorous fan analysis on mvp voting!
for those into it VORP, WS, and RC are counting stats which have rate analogs in VORPr, WSP, and RC/G.
i wouldn’t describe dunn as having glaring offensive holes in his game because of BA; his 2008 OBP is .380, his career OBP is .381, and we all know his power. but i’m sure, as you may have been alluding, that it’s something which further causes standard critics to misevaluate his performance. poor adam :(
there was a recent article on dunn at fangraphs called looking at what dunn has done. a fun finding:
“This got me thinking how many people have posted sub-.230 batting averages while simultaneously producing OPS counts of .900 or higher. Querying for all players satisfying these parameters while amassing 400 or more plate appearances, I found… nobody. I couldn’t find any player that has ever hit .230 or lower with an OPS .900 or higher.”
FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG
by astrostl on Aug 5, 2008 12:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
wow
when the guy finally connects, he absolutely destroys
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
see http://hittrackeronline.com/ :)
true hr distance – #1
standard hr distance – #2 and #3
total hrs – first place
avg hr distance – first place
no doubt nl hrs – first place
the man is power defined, shame we never see him in the derby because he can’t get an all-star vote!
FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG
by astrostl on Aug 5, 2008 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's fitting that people criticize his batting average so much
when he’s the single greatest example in the game of how to be awesome at baseball without having a good BA. and by fitting i mean hilarious.
by mattybobo on Aug 5, 2008 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
jack cust is another fun three true outcomes hitter
career .241/.384/.461, 877AB, 51HR, 19.1 BB%, 41.4 K%
FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG
by astrostl on Aug 5, 2008 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow
i have more respect for cust than i did a moment ago. i guess i never looked at his stats that closely.
by mattybobo on Aug 5, 2008 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Cust
played at GAB, he’d probably put up slugging numbers closer to Dunn’s. All the foul ground and deep power alleys in Oakland stifle his power numbers a bit.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
interesting
his baseballreference page reminds me a bit of nick johnson… another underrated player
by mattybobo on Aug 5, 2008 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed about
Nick Johnson when he plays….which is rarely
by njnick on Aug 5, 2008 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cust actually thrives at home
Somehow. Check out his home/road splits the last two years.
2007: Home – .267/.393/.588
Away – .219/.356/.423
2008: Home – .242/.395/.484
Away – .216/.353/.385
Weird.
by jdub176 on Aug 5, 2008 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
David Wright being a Met will not help his MVP chances
I get that people love to talk about East Coast bias.
Maybe it exists to some degree, I guess. but I dont’ know…
Sure, the last two NL MVPs came from Philly. But before that, the last NL MVP from the northeast was Mike Schmidt in 1986. In the AL, A-Rod has won two in New York, but I have to think everyone would concede he deserved them no matter where he was playing. Prior to those two, the last NL MVP from the northeast was Mo Vaugh in 1995, and then Ripken in 1991 (and some, like me, might argue that Baltimore is not really northeast. It is, however, in the “eastern corridor,” that megalopolis stretching from Dc to Boston).
As for Wright, many argue that he should have won last year. You’d think that, in a close race, some sort of NY bias would win out. Apparently not so.
Oh, and if you care, the last Cy Youngs to go to “easterners” are Doug Drabek in 1990 (if you consider Pitt the “east”) and Steve Bedrosian in 1987. In the AL it’s Pedro/Clemens in Bos/NY from 1999-2001.
So, if that’s what a “bias” gets you, I’ll pass.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Aug 5, 2008 12:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
but wright did lose last year to another eastern team player in a big market
who was such a great “story” they couldn’t pass it up. however, the bias thing is overdone by now, i agree.
by mattybobo on Aug 5, 2008 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't care about the "east coast bias"
argument. He’s the best player on that team and, if the Mets win the East, I think he’ll win the MVP. Pujols won’t win b/c he’s Pujols—his accomplishments have become ordinary. If the Phils win, it’ll be Utley. No one on the Cubs or Brewers really fits. No one in the West really fits so it’ll end up being Utley or Wright.
by chuckb on Aug 5, 2008 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Marlins
what do you think will happen if the Marlins win the east, then?
by cbsnyder on Aug 5, 2008 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hanley Ramirez will have a good shot
but I don’t think the Marlins will win it.
by chuckb on Aug 5, 2008 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just responding
to the parenthetical “(plays in new york)” in the main post.
Andy why not Ryan Braun if the Brewers win? He coud be top 3 in HRs and RBI, which voters love.
Here is the obligatory – “I’m not saying who should win, just who might get the vote” statement.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Aug 5, 2008 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
re: Braun
His OBP is .337. Then again, Rollins put up a .341 OBP last year and it was good enough for the voters.
by jdub176 on Aug 5, 2008 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
AND
2006 OBP:
Howard – .425
Pujols – .431
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Aug 5, 2008 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
But Braun didn’t guarantee a division win (and if he did, nobody cared because he’s in the central, lol)
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
.341
from a leadoff hitter who was voted MVP….ick
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
I agree. Rollins was a terrible, terrible choice last year. He wasn’t even the most valuable player on his own team.
by jdub176 on Aug 5, 2008 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but he set the table!
he led that team! he was a presence. that’s why the team made the playoffs, right there. ask anybody who’s actually played the game, instead of blogging from mom’s basebent on the interwebs at their site “il viva le birdnose” or whatever; they’ll say that clubhouse leadership counts. and he plays gold-glove defense! he’s a gamer, and other cliches as well. ok, i’m done now…
by mattybobo on Aug 5, 2008 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and Chase Utley,
far and away the better player, does none of those things. But he sure is good on Playstation!
by chuckb on Aug 5, 2008 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Duncan
I know that the Cardinals’ medical staff has been discussed ad nauseum, but how is it that we go from Duncan being run out there every day or every other day with absolutely no power to:
Duncan “came out of recovery and all of that pain he had been experiencing, the shooting and burning sensation down his arm was gone,” his father, pitching coach Dave Duncan, said
I guess it is part of the pyschology of sports that you never want to admit that anyone is hurting, but why was this guy in the lineup when better non-injured option were available.
Anyway, all bitching aside, hopefully Dunc has a good recovery and we have a very tough outfield competition to deal with next year (as if it weren’t already going to be difficult).
by OCCardsFan on Aug 5, 2008 1:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm pretty sure
it was dunc that wasn’t speaking up … not the coaching or medical staff.
by jeff_abs on Aug 5, 2008 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because of his back
I give him a pass this year.
...but because of his back what future does he have?
No matter what it sucks for Duncan.
by Harknights on Aug 5, 2008 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cubs DFA Scott Eyre
So there’s an option for a LOOGY…having a pretty bad year and lefties are .259/.286/.519/.804 off of him.
Not the most appealing option, but I thought I’d throw it out there anyway.
by mojowo11 on Aug 5, 2008 2:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
hmm. decent BA and OBP against (i think?), bad slugging
i wonder if windy wrigley field is turning some routine flyballs into homeruns? maybe hes been unlucky?
by mattybobo on Aug 5, 2008 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He has a 14:4 K:BB this year
where as Flores had a 15:17. This would be a definite upgrade.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 5, 2008 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
warning: small 11.3IP sample size.
14K 4BB 1HR for a FIP of 2.89.
his HR/FB rate is a low 6.5%, and the current mlb average on that is around 11%. that’s a stat over which pitchers are shown to have very little control, with HR allowed being considered a simple property of FB allowed. xFIP adjusts HR to league average HR/FB rates, and eyre comes in at 3.91 on that scale.
the big issues so far appear to be manifesting themselves via a high LD% against (26.5% against a 19.5% league average) and low GB% (26.5% against 44%!). even with a low HR/FB, trading GB for LD and FB is a recipe for disaster.
FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG
by astrostl on Aug 5, 2008 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'd be stunned
if we don’t pick him up.
THE SKIP IS LEGIT!!
Seriously... what were Rich Harden's parents thinking?!?!?!
by stltrav09 on Aug 5, 2008 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why wouldn't we?
If only to block the Cubs from getting a prospect from some AL East team, it’d make sense.
Dude’s been getting hit hard this year, though, and wasn’t much last year either.
by liam on Aug 5, 2008 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
please Moz
get this guy. he is actually pretty decent
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In the immortal words
of Princess Buttercup:
Only when compared to some.
by liam on Aug 5, 2008 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Would’ve been immortaler, if I’d left out that ‘when’.
by liam on Aug 5, 2008 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Manny Mania hits St. Louis
This is a different Dodger team we are going to be facing the the one we faced a few months ago. What Manny brings to the Dodgers is pretty big…lazy play or not. He gives them that impact bat they have been missing for a long time. It will be interesting to see how we pitch to Manny. Although Manny isn’t a Cardinal killer yet…I would hate to see us give him too much to hit this series. He is coming in here pretty hot right now. This is going to be a big series for us and one we really need to win since we are getting ready to go on a tough road trip. We can’t afford to let “Manny Mania” run wild over us.
by KYCards on Aug 5, 2008 2:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'll be at the game on Thursday
...to make sure we keep Manny in check.
by jdub176 on Aug 5, 2008 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
another guy we should pitch around
shouldn’t have even let Howard touch the ball
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Manny as Cardinal Killer
.350/.519/.650 in regular season
.412/.500/.588 in that one crappy post season series
by liam on Aug 5, 2008 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but
Carpenter didn’t pitch in that crappy postseason series, and he gets the start tonight…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
MVP
This measure would have Pujols in 4th place in the balloting. Behind Chipper, Berkman and Utley. Of course then adjusting for making the playoffs you’d have to possibly bump Utley and Pujols up.
vr, Xeifrank
by Xeifrank on Aug 5, 2008 2:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I hope voters take this into account...
That is, the fact that since around the middle of June, Utley’s been pretty ordinary. His OBP is in the .330 range since then.
by jdub176 on Aug 5, 2008 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chipper's DL stints
...would seem to hurt his chances. Also, Tex is gone, so less incentive for opposing pitchers to throw him strikes.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Aug 5, 2008 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pujols also had a DL stint
which could hurt his chances
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pujols busts Tony's chops
“Hopefully Tony is the manager next year for the All-Star Game, that means we won the World Series or are the National League Champions. And hopefully this time Tony can get me in the game.”
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 5, 2008 3:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Classic logo I want a t-shirt of this!!
by KYCards on Aug 5, 2008 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beautiful....and in the old school Cardinal blue as well.
by KYCards on Aug 5, 2008 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really like that one
Of course, I’m a sucker for the powder blues
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I want that tee
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That IS a beautiful shirt!
Are they for sale yet? If so, how much? If not, when will they be available?
Thanks
by ccthemovieman on Aug 5, 2008 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm def a fan
so much better than the god awful one from pittsburgh
but it does get kind of old when people think the arch is the only notable building in st. louis
by barry whiteteeth on Aug 5, 2008 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thought you guys might like this
i went looking for the pittsburgh one (which is bad) and found all of them
http://www.sportslogos.net/team.php?id=481
I love the brewers one from like 77. not only is it ugly but the batter is really fat?
prince fielder anyone…?
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com
www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Aug 5, 2008 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
nm
its 75, and the batter is RH
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com
www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Aug 5, 2008 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
weird
there were two all star games in 1961?
they have a logo for Boston and San Fran.
C'mon you Redbirds, lets prove em' wrong, again!
by yer dog first on Aug 5, 2008 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, they did that from '59-'62
I think one of the games’ revenue was for the pension fund.
by random on Aug 5, 2008 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Albert's comments were great.
I wonder how long he has been waiting to use that “hopefully Tony can get me in the game” line.
by cardsgirl95 on Aug 5, 2008 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Everybody laughed at the press conference on that zinger by the Mang.
Bad thing was Tony’s face was covered by Albert standing in front of him so we couldn’t see Tony’s face with that comment. But it was all in good fun. Mike Shannon I think even poked at Tony when Albert said it. Albert the comedian…I love it.
by KYCards on Aug 5, 2008 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's a fantastic quote
and this logo makes me very happy.
by effin fisk on Aug 5, 2008 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cubs 6, 'Stros 1
Cubbies are thumpin’ ‘em.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Aug 5, 2008 3:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
6-3 now
most runs Harden has given up as a Cub so far…
I have a love/hate relationship with the Cardinals' middle relief corps.
by madding on Aug 5, 2008 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hopefully some more are in the works
It’d be nice to have the Cubbies sliding a bit when we roll into the Windy City.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Aug 5, 2008 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
6-5 now
2-run shot by Geoff Blum
I have a love/hate relationship with the Cardinals' middle relief corps.
by madding on Aug 5, 2008 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i show it's the end of the 6th
with no runs scored; is espn’s scoredboard broke?
by Evilfrog on Aug 5, 2008 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
it was 1st and 3rd, no outs with Lee and Ramirez coming out.
Ended up getting no runs.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 5, 2008 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone see a
correlation between Albert’s “slump”, and the trade dead line? Considering the team focus towards the magical 09 season, I wonder if there have been conversations about “getting the surgery” sooner, that may be upsetting him? Surely it can’t be about the “Stand Pat” campaign.
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on Aug 5, 2008 4:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
1 for 14 with a double
since the trade deadline, not that I think it has anything to do with it.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 5, 2008 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wasn't even aware
that Albert was going to be “getting the surgery.”
by saladdays on Aug 5, 2008 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
El Caballo
2 run HR off Howry, Astros come all the way back 7-6.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 5, 2008 4:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
wow
Latroy Hawkins was the deal to be made!
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
c. lee homers
7-6 astros in the 7th.
by launchshuttle on Aug 5, 2008 4:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Huzzah!
Five internet bucks says the Cubs pull this one out
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No doubt
they probably just switched the CF camera off.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 5, 2008 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe Ed Wade was right
and we all know nothing about baseball.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 5, 2008 4:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Tie game
Crazy Legs in LF misplays a flyball, gives the Cubs 2nd and 3rd, no outs.
Mr. Regress to the Mean of Japan hits a sac fly to CF.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 5, 2008 4:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ahem
Regress to the Mean-san
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are they walking Daryl Ward to get to Soriano?
I don’t care if it sets up the DP. It’s about to be 10-7.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 4:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nevermind
Using ESPN gamecast (not exactly sure why) and their lineup wasn’t accurate
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
SOB!!
I was a batter off, but I was right. I hate being right sometimes.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ed Wade --
“if we score enough runs, pitching won’t matter!”
Drayton McLane—“We’re still in it and we’ll trade the rest of the farm system and all of next year’s draft picks to make it happen!”
McLane’s personal assistant—“Uhhh, Mr. McLane…sir? You know we don’t have Andy Pettitte anymore, since you didn’t want to give him that 2nd year. You know we don’t have Roger Clemens anymore, right, and you know that Wandy Rodriguez has been our best pitcher this year, right?”
McLane—“Shut up, punk! We won a whole bunch of games in a row earlier this season and came from way behind to make the Wild Card two years in a row. We can do it!”
Assistant—“Uhh, Mr. McLane…sir? You know that was…like…3 or 4 years ago, right, and that Brandon Backe and Randy Wolf aren’t Clemens and Pettitte, right?”
McLane—“Didn’t I fire you yet? I trust Ed (Wade). You just don’t understand baseball! Now bring me another cocktail so I can enjoy this great comeback win. Vance Birdman and El Cabana are going to bring us back! We don’t need Andy What’s his name and Robert Clemens!”
by chuckb on Aug 5, 2008 4:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Geez, those Cubs sure do seem
to jump all over those inside fastballs late in games. It’s almost like they know they are coming.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 5, 2008 4:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
heh
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
players who push a team to #1 in OBP, #3 in SLG, and #2 in BA probably tend to look that talented.
FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG
by astrostl on Aug 5, 2008 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only at home?
Their offense is god awful on the road.
They have the best offense at home in baseball, they are 6th in the league on the road.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 5, 2008 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
6th in the league
isn’t exactly horrible either though, although I agree that they do seem to struggle scoring runs from game to game and then will blow up for a big win every fourth game or so.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wish I could find a secondary split option
ESPN says the Cubs are second in the league in ‘Close and Late’ runs with 103 (Marlins 109).
I’d love to be able to split that by Home and Away. I’d have to wager that it’s gotta be something like 73 Homer, 30 away.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 5, 2008 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would
guess that you’d probably be right there…although if they keep winning they’ll have home field advantage all the way to the World Series anyway, so it might be a moot point unless the entire team disappears in the postseason like they did last year.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
All the way TO the World Series
Not IN the World Series :D
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
56 games is not a large sample size, wrigley was the second-best hitter’s park in baseball for the 2007 season, and 6th isn’t chopped lettuce. don’t they deserve more than a hunch as evidence?
FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG
by astrostl on Aug 5, 2008 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why do they deserve more
for an off-hand comment?
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 5, 2008 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
comments, not comment: “they probably just switched the CF camera off” also in this thread, and i also recall your participation in the equally unsubstantiated soto HGH suggestion.
offhand is the problem imo. cheating is about as serious as allegations get in baseball, we have a great reputation as fans, and i think it could realy sound like sour grapes to be making suggestions about not just any team but our spiritual and divisional rival – which also happens to be in first place.
i think about a bleed cubbie blue user or anyone outside of st louis for that matter reading that kinda stuff and it makes me cringe, that’s all. you’re still free to say what you want.
FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG
by astrostl on Aug 5, 2008 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
home/road splits≠a hunch
Now you did make an argument about sample sizes. But since the argument was made about the difference between home and road, the sample size is actually the entire season. And also, numbers do tend to get statistically signifcant around 40 or 50. Not overwhelmingly so, but an N of 50 is going to cut your standard deviation of the mean by 85% or so. (1/Sqrt(50) = .14)
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Aug 5, 2008 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that was one part of it. as for the standard deviation we’re ultimately considering RS, so things could be zoomed out to an inning or even a plate appearance level. doing so would result in even larger comparison integers than 56, but the variance is still born out in the creation of the supporting data itself.
FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG
by astrostl on Aug 5, 2008 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Diminishing returns
Going from a sample of 50 to a sample of 100 is going to be a factor of root 2. If you see an effect at a sample size like that, you have to start taking it seriously,a nd not just consider it to be a random event. It’s not necessarily iron clad, unshakable reality, guaranteed to hold up over endless further events, but it’s not something to just be waved away as a statistical fluke, either.
I’d be willing to believe there is something behind Boston and Chicago’s home/road performance, just due to the huge difference between their home and road performance (and hence, the larger the statistical noise can be without swamping out the signal)
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Aug 5, 2008 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but are you saying that 40-50 specifically means something as it relates to RS in baseball? a sample size of 50 has one value with coinflips, but another when polling registered voters for an upcoming election. context is everything.
FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG
by astrostl on Aug 5, 2008 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder why
they can’t do that on the road????
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Aug 5, 2008 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just saw the replay
The Astros’ catcher was setup way outside. He just missed his spot baaaaaaaaadly. There’s no reason he should have thrown Soriano a fastball anyways.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wagonmaker to have a rehab start Saturday
Pitched well enough in simulated game today (35 pitches +/-)
I don’t know where. (Info per 1380AM).
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Aug 5, 2008 5:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
John Kruk just said Rich Harden needs to cut down on his strikeouts
Just FYI
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 6:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Harden should start a fight with Lee in the dugout...
That will really bring that team closer together.
by stlhulsey on Aug 5, 2008 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lineup
Skip
Kennedy
Pujols
Ludwick
Glaus
Molina
Mather
Carp
Izturis
by SoonerfanTU on Aug 5, 2008 6:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I like it
No Miles, but at least he isn’t playing SS
When is Ankiel coming back?????
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
"Just because nobody understands you doesn't make you an artist."
by Mr Redbird on Aug 5, 2008 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well.....
I prefer Miles, b/c I think we need offense over defense at this point. Also would have preferred to keep Mather in the 2-hole, mostly b/c he’s been hitting well there, but I understand TLR not wanting to go Kennedy, P, Izturis, Skip 4 spots in a row.
by SoonerfanTU on Aug 5, 2008 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
how long has Ank been out?
we really could have DLed him, and had an extra bat… it would have been nice to have a different pinch hitter than Stav the other night…
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
But who would you bring up? I think they expected Ankiel to have been ready right now snice they keep saying he is close and can pinch hit.
by Evilfrog on Aug 5, 2008 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
nm
Barton. Geez we got a metric ton of outfielders.
by Evilfrog on Aug 5, 2008 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but yeah
coulda brought up ol’ aerospaceman up
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
might as well give Phelps a cameo
since he is on a HR rampage
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Aug 5, 2008 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yr right
he did have a nice pinch hit the other night too
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 5, 2008 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the only middle infielder who can hit
even a little bit is sitting. Adam Kennedy and Cesar Izturis are BOTH in the lineup. Did Miles need a day off?
by chuckb on Aug 5, 2008 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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