Viva El Birdos: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:

Around SBN: Lowrie Forces Angels To Walk-Off Back To Anaheim Bar-right-arrows

Reason for hope? A look at history

Mexvebwhite_tiny by Hardcore Legend on

It's after game 114, and let's take a look back at where Tony LaRussa Cardinals teams have stood at this point in the season:

             Game 114    Final       Finish
1996     61-53            88-74     27-21
1997     52-62            73-89     21-27
1998     54-60            83-79     29-19
1999     57-57            75-86     18-29
2000     62-52            95-67     33-15
2001     59-55            93-69     34-14
2002     65-52            97-65     32-13
2003     59-55            85-77     26-22
2004     75-39          105-57     30-18
2005     73-41          100-62     27-21
2006     62-52            83-78     21-35
2007     54-60            78-84     24-24
2008     62-52            ?????

The Cardinals were able to play above .500 to close out the season in 1996, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, finished out playing .500 baseball in 2007 and below .500 in 1997, 1999, and the magical 2006 season.

As we stand, the Cardinals seasons rank as far as wins after 114 games as follows:

2004 - 75
2005 - 73
2002 - 65
2008 - 62*
2006 - 62*
2000 - 62*
1996 - 61
2003 - 59
2001 - 59
1999 - 57
2007 - 54
1998 - 54
1997 - 52

So, as we stand today, this is tied for the 4th best season under Tony LaRussa's reign.

Now, flash forward to the present.  We stand behind the Chicago Cubs for the National League division and the Milwaukee Brewers for the Wild Card. 

The Chicago Cubs are on pace for 97 wins.
The Shirt-untuckers are on pace for 90 wins.

For the St. Louis Cardinals to finish ahead of the Cubs for the division lead, they would have to go (theortically) 36-12 from this day forward.  That would statistically be the best finish to a season the Cardinals have played under LaRussa.

For the St. Louis Cardinals to finish ahead of the the Brewers (which season series says they have to) for the Wild Card lead, they would have to go (theortically) 29-19.  That would be the fifth best finish to a season the Cardinals have played under LaRussa.

The 5 better closes?  1998, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004.

What was unique about each of those seasons?

Star-divide

1998 - Nothing really in particular.  The Cardinals acquired Fernando Tatis at the deadline, who chipped in 8 HRs and 28 runs scored.  They also called up J.D. Drew who was WHITE HOT, hitting .417 with 5 HRs in just 40 some plate appearances.

2000 - To replace an injured slugger,

Traded Jose Leon to the Baltimore Orioles. Received Will Clark and cash.

Will the Thrill was mind blowing.  He hit 12 HRs, scored 29 games and hit .345 filling in for the injured Mark McGwire.

2001 - To bolster a shaky rotation:
Traded Ray Lankford and cash to the San Diego Padres. Received Woody Williams.

Woody Williams came in, went 7-1 with a 2.28 ERA. 


2002 - Two moves that defined a team that should have won a World's Title.

To replace a fallen starter:
Traded a player to be named later and Luis Alfonso Garcia (minors) to the Cleveland Indians. Received Chuck Finley. The St. Louis Cardinals sent Coco Crisp (August 7, 2002) to the Cleveland Indians to complete the trade.

To replace the awful bat of Tino Martinez:
Traded Placido Polanco, Mike Timlin, and Bud Smith to the Philadelphia Phillies. Received Scott Rolen, Doug Nickle, and cash.

Rolen was ungodly, 14 HRs, 37 runs scored in 55 games.  Finley replaced Kile following his death by giving almost identical production in the rotation.

2004 - This juggernaut of a team didn't sit still and made a waiver wire move under the radar:
Traded players to be named later and Jason Burch (minors) to the Colorado Rockies. Received Larry Walker. The St. Louis Cardinals sent Luis Martinez (August 11, 2004) and Chris Narveson (August 11, 2004) to the Colorado Rockies to complete the trade.

Walker, still an extremely talented hitter hit 11 HR, 29 runs in 44 games and sparked a Cardinals team that would lose it's ace (Carpenter) to an arm injury to not miss a beat.

So, obviously, you can see what I'm saying here:
1998 - Acquired Fernando Tatis, called up J.D. Drew.  Mark McGwire was insane.
2000 - Acquired Will Clark.
2001 - Acquired Woody Williams.
2002 - Acquired Chuck Finley and Scott Rolen.
2004 - Acquired Larry Walker.

The Cardinals got a 'spark' in each of those seasons to help push them to the finish.  Of course, this is a simplistic way of looking at it.  The Cubs or Brewers could have an epic collapse.  The Marlins and Phillies could catch fire and win 94 games each.

But, for the Cardinals to do anything to really increase their chances of winning...they'll have to do something as far as the roster.  They can't continue to carry 3 light hitting MIF.  The rotation is a starter short, the bullpen is 2 relievers (at minimum) short.

Now, I've been a big proponent of cashing in the chips and trying to get value for the commodities that won't be returning next year. 

However, Mozeliak does not appear willing to do that.  If that is the case, then it is unfair to this team and unfair to the fans to not make even smaller moves to patch the holes the team has. 

Does that mean giving up on the future to try and win now?  No. Look at the names, Tatis, Williams, Rolen, Walker.  They played multiple seasons with the Cardinals and helped them win more than just in August and September of the year they were acquired.  Finley and Clark both retired at the end of that season.  Is there a Finley or Clark out there somewhere for the Cardinals?  What about a guy that can become an imporant part of the team for the next 4 to 5 years? 

The problem Mo has?  The trade deadline has past.  Now he has to try to find waiver wire deals or free agents (*cough Barry Bonds cough*).

Anyways, end of history lesson.  Is it impossible for the Cardinals to make the  playoffs?  No.  Is it likely they can make the playoffs as currently constructed?  No.  If they make a deal to improve the team?  History seems to think so.  People want to compare this to the 2003 season, and rightfully so.  The bullpen was an awful mess that season.  The Cardinals, similiarly, were inactive at the deadline.  The final result was coming up 2 games short of the playoffs.

13 recs | Comment 67 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Awesome post HL!!!

I’m going to past here what I put in the game thread of what I think we need to do for the rest of this month to have a fighting chance.

Here is the way we will have to play for the rest of this month (August) to have a chance of still being contenders the final month of the season. (In my opinion we really can’t do any worse than this):

Dodgers at home Take 2-3
Cubs at Wrigley Take 2-3 (A MUST)
Marlins at Miami Take 2-4 (A MUST)
Reds at Cincy take 2-3
Pirates at home sweep those 2
Atlanta at home take 2-3
Brewers at home sweep the 2 game series (A MUST)
Astros at Houston take 2-3

Basically we are going to have to win the rest of each series this month and can’t do any worse than going 16-7 or 15-8. If we can do this we will be in good shape going into the final month of the season with a good shot at the wild card. It’s going to be a big task for this team and they will have to play like they did the first 2 1/2 months of this season to do it. It’s not impossible but it will be real tough.
We have 5 days off this month so that will be a big help but these next 10 games will make or break us I have a feeling. If we get swept by the Cubs for example it will make it where we pretty much have to sweep out at home with the Pirates/Braves/Brewers series…especially the 2 game Brewers set. Loosing this series to the Phillies was really tough and it basically makes it now where we can’t afford to get swept or lose more than 1 series the rest of this month to really have a shot in my opinion.

And I also think Mo needs to try and get us a veteran power bat for the bench and one that can fill in at 3rd or 1st…this might give the team a spark like you said HL.

by KYCards on Aug 4, 2008 2:25 AM EDT   0 recs

I don't know that winning 2 outta 3 vs. the Cubs is a MUST

that’s a tall order… we could make up that in a series sweep against some crappy team I suppose. although if we sweep the cubs….

strikeouts from left-center

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 4, 2008 2:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Taking 2-3 from the Cubs at Wrigley is a tall order

and I don’t think we will do it. To be honest I won’t be suprised if we get swept for a couple of reasons. One our offense can’t seem to do anything against Zambrano and Lilly and I really doubt they would do much off Dempster and Harden as well. Second the Cards have just not played well at Wrigley for some time. I don’t think either will change, I just hope the games are not complete blow-outs by the Cubs. And if we were to get swept by the Cubs I think that would be about it for us this season. I think it would be a pretty big blow to this team’s confidence.

by KYCards on Aug 4, 2008 2:35 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

A few players that I think Mo could get that could help

1. Edgar Renteria….I would think we could get him pretty cheap and he could also help us next year. It’s obvious Edgar just doesn’t play good in the AL. I have a hard time believing that he is completely washed up.
2. Brian Giles…he would have a hard time fitting in with the current OF we have but we would be a solid bat off the bench and to use late in games when we have runners on and we need a hit.
3. Randy Winn…see Brian Giles.
4. Rich Aurilia..maybe not the best guy to get but he would put up better numbers than Kennedy and Izturis does.
5. Mark Ellis…he would be a HUGE upgrade over anyone we have playing 2nd right now and could help us next season.

by KYCards on Aug 4, 2008 2:48 AM EDT   0 recs

Of those guys

only Aurelia would be likely to get through waivers to the point where the Cardinals could acquire him. Even if that happens, Miles is actually playing better than he is, he can’t play SS anymore, so I’m not sure he helps the club that much.

Ellis would never make it through waivers.

Winn would be an interesting choice - he could come in and be someone like Taguchi was in 2006 and 2007 - a late inning defensive replacement and pinch hitter.

Just say no to Brian Giles—I’m not sure he makes it through waivers either.

One guy you didn’t mention would be Brian’s brother Marcus, who’s currently without a job, but that might be because he’s just not a very good baseball player anymore.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Aug 4, 2008 10:37 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I like Marcus

He played well with the Braves for a few years I am not sure if he is washed up yet. He just might have a higher upside offensively than Kennedy, Ryan and Miles. Marcus couldnt hurt us any lol he might be worth a try.

"Even when the rain falls, Even when the flood starts rising, Even when the storm comes, I am washed by the water!" -NeedToBreathe

by Calhoun on Aug 5, 2008 9:47 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

well done Hardcore

i hope MO reads this. if any one has his email addy, please send him this link.

the questions is, which need that MO needs to fix is more important & is the move that will push the Cards to the playoffs? a bullpen arm or a better SS/2nd baseman?

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Aug 4, 2008 3:19 AM EDT   0 recs

I think it will be easier for us to get a bat rather than a bullpen guy through waivers.

I know the bullpen is our biggest black eye…but we also have WAY too many games where we only score 2-3 runs and in turn puts alot of the pressure on the pen to get 2-3 scoreless innings. If I were Mo I would go after TWO hitters. One for the MIF that can help us next season as well like a Renteria/Polanco/Ellis type guy and a veteran guy for the bench/OF like a Giles/Winn. I really think our offense needs a spark right now and gettting some kind of veteran bat might do the trick ala Will Clark/Larry Walker.

by KYCards on Aug 4, 2008 3:29 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I hate to keep hogging this thread and this is all I will say for now.

If Mo were to pick up a bat or two he really needs to try and get it done in the next couple of days. Especially before the Cubs series. If he were to wait until later this month it would probably be too late. So if Mo is planning to do something...now is the time, this team really needs a “pick-me-up” right now after this Phillies series.

by KYCards on Aug 4, 2008 4:00 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Impressive...

...I think you covered about every conceivable angle.

A decent bat the bottom would seem to be the most vaulable asset, we come closer to having arms with Wainwright and on the farm. And how about a skid by the Cubs and Brewers thank you.

Who is most likely to get by on waivers? Renteria, Aurelia or Ellis? I’m pretty sure no lefty relievers are gonna slip by…..

by cardschinmusic on Aug 4, 2008 3:30 AM EDT   0 recs

don't overlook the internal upgrades

this is a pretty thorough accounting HL, but imno it gives short shrift to the internal improvements that augmented the external acquisitions. in 2000 they got 7 excellent starts down the stretch from britt reames - he pitched his way onto the postseason roster. in 2001 they added not only woody williams but also bud smith, who joined the team a couple weeks earlier and was nearly as important in stabilizing the back of the rotation.

in 1998 they got huge contributions in aug-september from two starters coming back from injury. one of them, juan acevedo, solved their mess in the bullpen by becoming the closer — he was nearly perfect down the stretch, giving up just 1 run in 24 innings and saving 13 games without a miss. the other guy they got back was donovan osborne, who returned after 3+ months on the dl and replaced bobby witt in the rotation. osborne made 9 starts down the stretch; the cards won 7 of the 9.

that’s essentially what the cards are trying to do this year — get their “spark,” if you will, by improving internally, restoring injured pitchers to the staff and perhaps getting a lift from a rookie or two (colby?).

a couple of other thoughts — two of the deals you are citing above came after the waiver deadline (walker and woody). so if we use them as precedents it’s still possible that mozeliak will make a deal. the other thought is that all but one of the years you’re citing came in the pre-Moneyball era. times have changed — teams value their assets differently today than they did back then, and it’s not as easy to pick up good players for garbage. which is the main reason that jocketty is no longer the gm here.

by lboros on Aug 4, 2008 9:03 AM EDT   0 recs

"times have changed"

Agreed.

Before I say anything, though, I should say that this is a great post. I gave it a rec.

However, I don’t really think that the “history seems to say so” is quite as firm of an argument as you make it out to be. First of all, there’s the issue of the change in times - with free agent prices being what they are, it’s becoming increasingly important for a team to hang onto its valuable young players in order to be able to put a complete team on the field. Second, teams just aren’t giving away players like Walker for nothing anymore. It’s easy to say “what we really need is to do something, see the history,” but the history took place in a different time. I’m sure we could trade some good spects and get a “spark” back, sure. But I just don’t think that makes too much sense anymore. The Cardinals can’t build a winner from free agency - the only team that can is the Yankees. Even the Red Sox lean increasingly heavily on cost-controlled players.

Second, I’m not sure this is entirely comprehensive until we see what the Cardinals did in all the years when they failed to step up and push into the playoffs - I’d guess they probably make acquisitions at the deadline or via waivers, too (except for last year, of course). This post seems to imply that what we need is to get a player who can “spark,” but that really only works if the player doesn’t suck. Surely the Cardinals have picked up players who were pretty worthless down the stretch - not every trade works out. What the Cardinals need is to get a player who will be good down the stretch, which is a very different problem than just getting any old guy and hoping he ignites the team’s inner warrior (in the recesses of their souls, or whatever it was Ichiro said that one time). So…then we need to find someone who’s got a very good chance of being good. Then we need to look at their price. Then we need to decide that, in the NOW market (as opposed to the past) if they’re worth the prospects we’re going to have to give up.

This is a nice look at the past and I agree that it would’ve been nice to at least add a roleplayer or two (Rhodes was gotten cheaply…), but I think it’s unfair to say we just need to trade for a Tatis, a Woody Williams, a Will Clark, a Chuck Finley. Those guys come more expensively than they have in the past, and it’s becoming increasingly useful to hang onto them and get draft picks, which drives up their price. The PTBNLs and garbage for Larry Freaking Walker deals don’t happen anymore.

by mojowo11 on Aug 4, 2008 9:30 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

i gave it a rec too

solid research, made me think. good example of what a FanPost should be.

by lboros on Aug 4, 2008 10:32 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

On the other hand,

it seemed to me that the cost for several of the big-name trades made in late July this year was not that great. Of course, that may be ‘cause I’m undervaluing the prospects moved in these trades since I’m not very familiar with them.

by ArkansasTravs on Aug 4, 2008 1:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

When exactly did the "Moneyball era" start?

I’m sure it’s not clearly defined, just wondering aloud.

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans

by Mr Redbird on Aug 4, 2008 10:46 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

the book came out in 2003

and at about that same time, front offices across baseball started using stat analysis a lot more aggressively and promoting guys with a stat orientation. the cards hired luhnow in 2003 (and he hired ron shandler, michel lichtman, and others). shortly thereafter the dodgers made depodesta their gm, the dbacks hired byrnes, the indians instituted DiamondView, etc etc etc. it’s not a hard-n-fast line, but you could say 2003/04 was the tipping point.

by lboros on Aug 4, 2008 10:58 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

LA

...and then the Dodgers fired DePo shortly thereafter in favor of Ned Coletti.

D’oh.

by mojowo11 on Aug 4, 2008 11:13 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Thanks

Answer I was looking for

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans

by Mr Redbird on Aug 4, 2008 11:21 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

hmmm....

How silly of me to say “on the farm” way up above rather than “internal” so everybody would know what I meant…LOL! Oh well…..who am I anyway.

by cardschinmusic on Aug 5, 2008 2:26 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree

internal upgrades are a large part of it.

I also left off a pickup of Miguel Cairo who was a very steady option off the bench late in the season. Al Reyes was picked up in early 2004 and when he returned from injury was LIGHTS OUT.

The point was that we did nothing. We will get Carpenter back. That helps. We might get Wainwright back by the middle of the month. That helps. However, the Cardinals offense has been this season a bunch of hitters feasting on bad pitching. We aren’t going to face a lot of bad pitching the rest of the way out. When they do scrounge up runs, the bullpen gives it right back.

I just don’t hold out much hope for the Cardinals to come anywhere close to .500 baseball the rest of the way out unless they make an improvement to the offense. Specifically in the MIF.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Aug 4, 2008 12:56 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Me don't think so

I have to go with Hardcore on this one … so far it’s been a fairly frustrating 2nd half, reminding me of an extremely frustrating 2nd half in 2006 … only this time the division has two quality teams that will leave St. Louis in third place and out of the playoffs … the team and the fans needed some kind of spark--some influx from outside of the organization … and Mo did nothing … I was and still am quite disappointed about that … not sorry we didn’t acquire a rental, but feel we could have found a player for the remainder of this year and also next season … surely a lot of the players and coaches must feel the same way, if not publicly … the team has clearly needed something more -- something for the offense and something for the bullpen … if a lefty could not be had, how about a right-hander that can be highly effective such as the Cubs got packaged ALONG WITH Rich Harden … look at the spark Jason Bay has provided Boston … Manny is tearing it up in L.A. ... there is more there than the stats, there’s the emotional & motivational aspects of the acquisition … again the Cardinals did nothing … no emotional or statistical boost … let’s rely on our not-yet-ready-for prime time prospects and two returning from injury pitchers … just not a good call by management imho … of course, I hope I can look back and say I was wrong, but the 2nd half feels like pre-postseason 2006 when the Cards & JuanE made me pull most of my hair out in August & September.

by RedbirdattheBeach on Aug 4, 2008 9:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Are you related to WCBW?

You both have the same James Joyce stream-of-consciousness style. Hmmm.

born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red

by totalloser on Aug 8, 2008 8:02 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Cow About...

A jump start from Colby Rasmus? Is he still injured?
:=8/

by The MooCow on Aug 4, 2008 9:16 AM EDT   0 recs

The stretch run

I look at the next two months like this: Either this team gets healthy and comes together like the 2006 team did in the playoffs, or they have Septembers similar to 2006 and 2007 and fall 8 games out of the wild-card.

Either way, I don’t think that there were any players similar to the ones you name on the market that could have been acquired without giving up one or multiple players within our top 6 or 7 prospects. Jocketty essentially acquired the majority of those players for garbage prospects - guys who were never going to play at the big league level - and players that could be moved at the time: Bud Smith, Polanco, Coco Crisp. There wasn’t a Will Clark out there this season, there wasn’t a Woody Williams either, since Maddux doesn’t want to play anywhere that isn’t on the west coast, so I think it was good to stand pat, build on the future, and hope this team can catch fire and run off a streak of 7 or 8 straight wins a couple of times in the next 2 months.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Aug 4, 2008 10:46 AM EDT   0 recs

How it played out

I think Mo said that he was focused on pursuing Fuentes and did not have a chance to go after others after that did not pan out. I think there were players to be gotten but were not pursued. I am not sure about the asking price for others (I assume that it was high since not many deals were made). But I wished Mo would have pursued other players concurrent with Fuentes, e.g. a Ohman, Grabow, etc… But I know you’all were talking about a position player instead of a pitcher.

born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red

by totalloser on Aug 8, 2008 8:32 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Lofton?

Is Kenny Lofton still out there as a FA? Not sure that he could step in right now, but that is a name I haven’t heard brought up. Probably for a reason. Personally, I hope Mather starts to rip it up, sort of like Duncan did when he first came up. Besides, if he is getting advice from Miles, we could have a gritty power hitter on our hands.

by dralexp on Aug 4, 2008 1:30 PM EDT   0 recs

i've wondered why lofton hasn't played this year

re: mather—don’t high slugging numbers severely deflate a players grittiness quotient?

by mattybobo on Aug 4, 2008 1:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes they do

You can’t spell “scrappy” without “crappy,” so you have to suck a little to be gritty.

by mojowo11 on Aug 4, 2008 1:58 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Not sure if they are mutually exclusive

Eck was gritty and did not suck, at least offensively.

born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red

by totalloser on Aug 8, 2008 8:33 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I would say he sucked a little

His defense was lacking, but it had HEART. So even though he didn’t have good range or any arm to speak of, he was still a little gritmeister out there.

by mojowo11 on Aug 8, 2008 9:08 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The greatest Cardinal homestretch pickup ever

He may be 57, but I have to believe Cesar Cedeno would be able to help out. .434. That’’s all I’m saying. Four Thirty Four.

by Hal Lanier's Pants on Aug 4, 2008 4:30 PM EDT   0 recs

Nice work Hardcore

Because of Lidge’s slider. a play should have been run. Oh yea, Isturias couldn’t get a bunt down just the other day and here he is again. Hitting him was incredible bad by Lidge. Lucky us. Stavanova, another well trained hitter. No call there. Is Tony worried about using up his pen in extras? No confidants. Great 3 run shot by Mather the other day. I loved the way he choked down and made a battle of it to end the game.
The Cards have one professional hitter and he is slumping. If Ludwick and Glaus would just cover the outside of the plate .5 percent of the time, this team would be kicking butt.
I’m guessing the Lohse bid comes in this week. Also, its not why we didn’t make a move. Its how could we not make a move. The answer is the bitter pill.

Westcoastbirdwatcher

by westcoastbirdwatcher on Aug 4, 2008 5:05 PM EDT   0 recs

Stav/Mather

I don’t think Stav’s K was “lucky” by Lidge, nor did Mather really “choke down and make a battle of it.” Lidge basically owned both of those guys, who have probably never seen a slider like Lidge’s in their entire life.

by mojowo11 on Aug 4, 2008 5:58 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

if you follow what he said

the Mather at bat he was talking about was on Friday night I think. Stav looked horrible last night though

strikeouts from left-center

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 4, 2008 6:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Oh

Well, I rarely follow what he says.

by mojowo11 on Aug 4, 2008 6:07 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The

entire post is a sarcasm mojo. I have a TV set that I watch games on. Tony did not have a batter he could ask to lay down a simple safety squeeze. That is sick. Mathers swing is terrible for anything but an occasional hr. Stav would be the guy, the only one left to sacrifice the run home. Oddly enough that slider is easy to bunt. We don’t have players with simple skills.

Westcoastbirdwatcher

by westcoastbirdwatcher on Aug 4, 2008 9:53 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

nothing

about a squeeze is simple. First of all, safety squeeze plays are for high school, and they don’t often work then either, without major league talent behind the plate. A safety squeeze gets your runner thrown out at the plate 9 times out of 10, so the best play there is a suicide squeeze if you’re going to run one at all.

Second, I’ll take a chance that Stav or Mather are going to hit a ball to the outfield or get a base hit over them getting a bunt down against a pitcher who throws in the upper 90’s with a devastating slider. How often do you think that either of those guys have bunted in the past 10 years? Once, twice? You let them take their hacks and live with it. If they get a base hit they’re heroes, if they strike out like 90% of the other major leaguers would, you get to criticize them getting to swing at all. Nice ivory tower you must live in.

Also, is it possible that you could post in something representing readable context so that I can understand what you’re saying? It’s impossible to read your posts because of all the mixed information and arguments.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 9:53 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Thanks Fourstick

for make the situation so clear. I had no idea that the statistics were so against a play of some sort. You’d think that guys that play so much, would practice playing baseball. Gosh!

Westcoastbirdwatcher

by westcoastbirdwatcher on Aug 5, 2008 11:31 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Also,

I wonder if they knew that Bradley Lidge is tall, and has a bum knee. I bet he was scared to field a bunt.

Westcoastbirdwatcher

by westcoastbirdwatcher on Aug 5, 2008 11:37 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

He may speculate

But it’s not like you don’t—I found it amusing that you think “that slider is easy to bunt.” That pitch has wicked late movement and, as fourstick said, these aren’t guys that probably aren’t all that deft at bunting. I seriously doubt either of those guys would have had an easy time bunting it, as you stated as fact with absolutely no backing.

by mojowo11 on Aug 5, 2008 12:54 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

thanks mojo

for clearing that up.. I wonder why the catcher stepped out and called the defensive rotation before the play. I bet Tony, and you Mojo and you foretstick thought he was stupid. I bet he was just telling a jock for the deaf people.

Westcoastbirdwatcher

by westcoastbirdwatcher on Aug 5, 2008 2:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

so

Since the Phils made a defensive rotation means that a squeeze by the other team is imminent? They could have been setting up their infield defense to adjust in at the corners and double play depth in the middle to up the chances of a game ending double play. Or they might just be prepared for every situation like a well-coached ballclub usually is.

I wonder if they knew that Bradley Lidge is tall, and has a bum knee. I bet he was scared to field a bunt.

If the Phillies were on a defensive “rotation”, the last person that Tony would expect to field that bunt is Lidge. They’d be charging from first and third on any square around because those players would be in position to make a force out at home. This is also, another reason that the safety squeeze doesn’t make any sense with the bases loaded and one out, you might bunt you way into a rotation and a home to first double play.

Don’t get all high and mighty—I was just pointing out that there’s a greater probability of players like Stavinoha to get a base hit or hit a ball into the outfield for a sac fly than for them to get down a good bunt into a charging defensive rotation.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 4:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

forstick

And if it a slap, two runs score. Game over. No way they rotate. Also, no way Lidge throws a strike. Advantage Cards. Lidge was on the ropes, and Tony did not have a player to attempt it. You actually have no clue here do you. Be honest. We did not even use a pitch as a fake to find out. Six pitches to end the game. No strikes.

Westcoastbirdwatcher

by westcoastbirdwatcher on Aug 5, 2008 7:10 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

It doesn't follow

Any halfway decent team would have a specific bunt play on there in case of a squeeze. If you played baseball you would know that. I know that my (college) baseball team calls a specific play in any situation that isn’t the standard runner-on-first-less-than-two-outs, depending on the situation.

Look, if the guy squares early, yes, Lidge won’t throw a strike. That’s why anyone who has the slightest idea what they’re doing doesn’t square early on a squeeze. Duh?

If it’s a slap—well, first of all, Mather and Stav probably aren’t good at slapping either…they’re both guys with long power swings. That may be the only thing they’re less experienced at doing than bunting. Second, that doesn’t make sense because the butcher-boy requires squaring early to bring the corners in enough to give the batter an advantage in slapping, in which case (as you said), Lidge would not throw a strike.

If I were the Dodgers, I would put on a play where both corners charge on a bunt, but don’t start in until the batter squares. That’s what I’d do because neither Mather nor Stav is likely to bunt because they probably suck at it. However, it does make it so Lidge only has to cover the ground in front of him and leaves the catcher to cover home for the force on the home-to-first double play. It looks to me like that’s exactly what they did.

I still don’t really know what you’re babbling about, but I hope I covered everything you were mocking me for supposedly not understanding.

by mojowo11 on Aug 5, 2008 11:42 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You're right

They didn’t charge or pitch out, because Tony isn’t dumb enough to bunt with guys who never bunt, Manuel knows he’ll play the percentages and let them swing away. A few years ago the Cardinals had 10 successful squeeze plays in a row, and the guys putting those bunts down were players like Eckstein and Grudz, guys who are adept at bunting the ball. Stav is not….

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Aug 6, 2008 8:33 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Not to stoke the fires of trade

but the Rox apparently asked for Anderson and a low-level pitcher for Brian Fuentes.

Now, I think Fuentes sucks and that low level pitcher could have been Jesse Todd for all I know. But, just to give you an idea of what was being asked for.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Aug 4, 2008 9:47 PM EDT   0 recs

Is that confirmed?

I just don’t buy it unless its from a really credible source. They have two good, young catchers in the big leagues right now, why would they want another one?

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 9:55 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

if it is true

perhaps they were just asking for our next best prospect, anderson, since rasmus was (i hope/assume) off the table? a surplus of catching prospects would be a nice pool to deal from i’m guessing. however, this brings up (it does not beg) the question: is anderson our no. 2 prospect? i assume he is i’m no expert.

by mattybobo on Aug 5, 2008 10:11 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I would make that assumption as well...

as long as we clarify it by stating that he’s the second best prospect not to have major league service time. I think Garcia and Perez would have to rank ahead of him on the overall prospect list, but they’ve been contributing at the major league level this season.

I agree that they may have been trying to load up on catching prospects, but with all the pitching and outfield prospects the Cardinals have, two areas where the Rox are weak in the minors, why wouldn’t they be asking for depth at that position, knowing they are dealing from strength?

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 11:19 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree with that -- especially if the pitcher was Todd

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 4:27 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Joe Borowski anyone?

I believe he was the Indians Closer not too long ago and was pretty good at it.
He would be a guy I would like to pick up, though he is having a bad season this year he might be worth a shot.

"Even when the rain falls, Even when the flood starts rising, Even when the storm comes, I am washed by the water!" -NeedToBreathe

by Calhoun on Aug 5, 2008 10:09 AM EDT   0 recs

Is that a joke?

He was anything but “good at it.” The guy was an absolute punching bag. 5.07 ERA last year, 7.56 ERA this year.

I mean, really. He’s 36 or 37 years old now, his fastball sits around 85…he’s AWFUL.

by mojowo11 on Aug 5, 2008 10:19 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

maybe

we could lure Mitch “Wild Thing” Williams out of retirement? I mean, shit, Joe Carter retired years ago, and one former Cub punching bag is worth another don’t you think?

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Aug 5, 2008 11:21 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

where is kenny lofton – could he help?

victim of the sixties

by victim of the sixties on Aug 5, 2008 8:15 PM EDT   0 recs

Off Topic...

HL – You mentioned possibly burning me the Cards/Dodgers game from last Thursday. Is that still a possibility?

by bdub78 on Aug 11, 2008 11:51 AM EDT   0 recs

Yes

post your email addy in the link in my signature, I will read it and then delete the blogpost.

I’ll shoot you an email with the details.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Aug 16, 2008 4:12 PM EDT