Kelly Johnson
by thenextgen on Aug 24, 2008 10:05 PM EDT
72 comments
Hello fellow veb-er's, over the past two series versus atlanta i keep thinking over and over again, how do we get kelly johnson in a cardinal uniform? i became even more impressed with his at bat against springer on saturday, he seems to me to be the kind of guy tony would like so how about this...
Cards acquire- Kelly Johnson
Braves acquire- Mitchell Boggs, AK no 7, allen craig
This way we can slary dump on Kennedy, trade a commodity in Boggs for atlanta, and get a blocked prospect out of the system in craig
How does that sound?
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career ops hovering around 800, 10-15 homers, 50-70 rbi’s, steals 10 bases, 26 years old, lefty mashes 343 career split against em, arbitration eligible after next year which may make him hard to pry from the braves, 270 career hitter
by thenextgen on Aug 24, 2008 10:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
sign me up
the guy i would really like to have is JJ Hardy but seeing as that will happen as soon as Niko Vazquez turns to the dark side, KJ seems like a pretty darn good option. Plus i heard somewhere (no clue where) that he is under appreciated in ATL, kinda like Juan E was here in STL.
At least he's better than Esteban Yan.
by jacksonian on Aug 24, 2008 10:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
you think they want Kennedy?
If we traded him, we’d be eating his salary.
I agree that KJ’d be an upgrade and Atlanta might trade him, but AK almost brings that trade down because of his salary.
On with the (good) youth movement!
by aet15 on Aug 24, 2008 11:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i think this is a pretty good proposal – boggs and craig are decent prospects and could get atlanta interested. kelly johnson would be an upgrade here – does atlanta have a ready replacement for him though?
by supernova on Aug 24, 2008 11:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
given recent deals...
… Atl doesn’t necessarily need “ready replacements” in order to move guys if they think they are getting overall upgrades. and they definitely need young starting depth.
that said, KJ has real value, and it would probably take more than Boggs + Craig to get him. AK is a non-consideration at this point.
i’m thinking Mather + Garcia.
but Mo should definitely feel it out this winter.
by kindred on Aug 25, 2008 2:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
when i first saw the diary title
My initial thought was “no way the braves trade Johnson this early”…
Then I ran across this headline at mlbtraderumors.com:
“Look for the Braves to trade Kelly Johnson this winter as Martin Prado has impressed the coaching staff to the extent that the Braves may be ready to give Prado a chance to be the regular second baseman in 2009. Even if Prado isn’t the guy, expect Johnson to be gone. Offensively, he’s actually proven to be too selective and his power totals have been disappointing.”
If that is true, we need to jump on this. KJ isn’t a great defender and isn’t as good as he seemed offensively last year, but he’s better than he’s been this year, and is still entering his prime so he could improve. Garcia and Mather seems like too much to pay, which means it might work. I’d rather see Skip and a pitcher not named Garcia, though…
"..and that, my liege, is how we know the Earth to be banana shaped." -Sir Belvedere
by SleepyCA on Aug 25, 2008 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt it would take that much
Garcia alone would turn the Cards away from that deal. I’d say Boggs and Craig are a pretty good package for an average defensive 2B with ok offensive stats and a bit injury plagued. If ATL is looking to get younger, they could do worse than these 2. I don’t see many teams offering too much more for him.
I think it may take a little more, I could see Mather and Boggs or something similar. Although I would question whether Mather is a better prospect than Craig…
by CrimsonBirdFan on Aug 27, 2008 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure how much difference...
there is between those two packages. It’s hard to arge which of Boggs and Garcia is the better prospect…I personally feel Garcia is, but Boggs was recently named the top pitcher in the PCL. Mather is big league ready and is a legitimate big league hitter IMO, which might give him the edge over Craig – but Craig plays a decent third base and has the potential to be every bit the hitter that Mather is.
by cardzfanbub on Aug 27, 2008 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Out of...
Garcia, Craig, Mather, and Boggs…
Garcia and Craig are by FAR the best prospects. Nothing against Mather and Boggs, but Mather is not young and Boggs lacks elite ‘stuff’. Not saying Garcia is a future ace or anything, but most projections put Garcia as a 2 or 3 and Boggs as a 4 at best, probably a 5 and maybe a bullpen guy.
He was picked as the best pitcher in the PCL because very few other pitchers actually pitched the entire season. It was voted on by managers, and managers weren’t going to vote for players who have only pitched about 10 games. He’s not the best pitcher in the PCL, he’s probably the 4th best SP prospect of all the pitchers the Memphs ‘birds have used this season. (I’d put Todd, Garcia, and Mortenson ahead of him in that order).
I would think most teams would take Craig over Mather. Younger and just as successful in the minor leagues really. Mather could continue to develop into a starting OF, but right now he’s a 26 year old 4th or 5th OF.
by CrimsonBirdFan on Aug 28, 2008 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’ll agree that the PCL award is a mirage, but I wouldn’t ever say Boggs doesn’t have elite stuff. His fastball is beyond brilliant. His slurve is manageable, but he needs a third offering, a changeup if you will and then he’ll prospect better.
Give Boggs a ML average changeup and he’ll put up #3 numbers, easily.
Until then, he’s a lefty’s dessert.
I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang
by AdjustedExpectations on Aug 29, 2008 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
agree adjustedexpectations.......
If you can’t see that Boggs has an “elite fastball” you obviously can not see talent.
There are different types of “elite fastballs”
1. power (just heavy and hard to square up)
2. exploding (just take off at the end)
3. running (watch boggs..94-95 MPH with a lot of run…) Did you see how much trouble Yadi was having in KC at times catching Boggs….. No other cardinal pitcher has as much movement on their fastball.
But as Adjusted said, he really lacks some good off speed stuff to keep guys honest.
I think it’s a stretch to say Jamie Garcia has better stuff than Boggs…. I think Garcia looks good, but to be honest the best thing about him is he is left handed. I think Garcia looks to have more polish than Boggs which is funny since he is younger….
However if Boggs can develope some off speed stuff he easily could be a solid #3 starter. It’s just a matter of can he put it to gether
by ICbirdfan on Aug 29, 2008 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Johnson and Peralta
are my two outside of the org (semi-realistic) expectations for upgrading next year’s MI. I would be thrilled with both and more than happy with one.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
by Alxfritz on Aug 25, 2008 12:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Does the organization have a replacement
prospect for Boggs?
Garcia
McClellan
Boggs
with Todd probably becoming a reliever at some point. Kinda thin.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 25, 2008 3:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm thinking FA will be the replacement "prospect" for Boggs.
by stlfan on Aug 25, 2008 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wasn't Boggs just labeled
as the teams best pitching prospect in a publication last week.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 25, 2008 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah...
Actually he was labeled best in the PCL? I guess that’s gotta be because Garcia is currently with the STL…though Jamie did struggle some in Memphis.
by cardzfanbub on Aug 25, 2008 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ummm... Mitch Boggs is raw but has really, really good FB......
His off speed stuff and command need to be worked on, but his FB is really good.
Have you seen the run he gets on that 93-95 MPH FB?
by ICbirdfan on Aug 25, 2008 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nope...
I don’t “see” much of anything, as I’ve not ponied up for cable/dish yet. IMO Jamie is the better of the two…but that’s simply from what I’ve read.
by cardzfanbub on Aug 25, 2008 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know how "raw" Boggs is
He’s 24 years old, has pitched in the Cardinals minor leagues since 2005 and pitched for the University of Georgia.
He’s got a decent fastball, but he was less than impressive in his short duty as a starter this year with St. Louis. He’ll probalby be a major league pitcher, but I’d be willing to bet Jamie Garcia turns out better (and I’d be willing to say “much” better).
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
by Tackle Box on Aug 25, 2008 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's exactly why he's 'raw'
he has good pure stuff on one pitch, but has no secondary stuff to back it up. He’s supposedly working on that stuff right now. Hence, he is not a finished product
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Aug 25, 2008 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Boggs fastball is way more than decent
but he still has some work to do on his secondary offerings.
by azruavatar on Aug 25, 2008 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i wouldn't call it great
so……good?
whatever
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
by Tackle Box on Aug 25, 2008 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
heck Boggs may never "get it" but he has something......
Tackle Box, I agree you can only have “it” so long before “it” needs to produce………..
I have a cable package where I get FSN Midwest so I have seen Boggs pitch. His Fast ball needs to be seen on TV and it would be even better to see it in the batters box. It runs in on RHB and he throws it 93-95 with the movement still being around on the 94-95 MPH pitch. It’s not like he needs to throw the FB at 90-92 to get movement and it becomes straight at 95. I am sure he could dial it up to 96-97 but I assume it gets straight and he has no command.
Boggs can become a pretty good pitcher (Solid#3-#4) if he can get some other pithes other than the Fastball.
He is not 21 years old I just call him raw based on his skill set not age.
Heck he is 24 so he has time to work on it. Belive me I could handle him being traded but it’s not like he is not a good pitcher. That is all I was responding to.
by ICbirdfan on Aug 26, 2008 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lets just go ahead
and convert him into a second baseman.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
by Alxfritz on Aug 26, 2008 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
just out of curiosity
what don’t you like about it. Not trying to start an argument. . . just wondering what your opinion is.
by azruavatar on Aug 26, 2008 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I said it was decent
that’s hardly saying i didn’t like it.
I don’t get why people have a problem with me saying it’s "decent’? It’s a subjective term. I really don’t know where to go from here. I wasn’t jumping out of my seat, but I thought it was definitely of major league standards.
He didn’t really strike out a ton of guys, and gave up a healthy amount of hits. Other than that, I didn’t “not” like it, but it’s obvious that 1) he needed a little work and 2) it wasn’t “great”.
Maybe it’s more his secondary pitches (seems like a long time since I watched him pitch so my memory is a tad fuzzy), but I’m not sure. Actually, before his start against the Mets, I made the comment on here that I had complete faith in him for some reason and wasn’t concerned about him going 6 innings and being in the game. Things change, and I think there started to be a “book” on him. Probably needed a little more seasoning to figure things out a little more.
Then again, I doubt it helps that the last 3 times he pitched were against the Mets. That’s a bit unfair. But, if they can figure him out after 1 game, then so can other teams. I’m not opposed to seeing him again, I just don’t have high hopes. He’s at best a back end starter.
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
by Tackle Box on Aug 26, 2008 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To give defend Boggs for a second. His fastball is quite good/decent/whatever, but it’s his secondary options that killed him against the Mets.
Mets are lefty heavy, his “slurve” is a wheelhouse pitch and so he has to overuse his fastball. If his lefty splits would normalize a bit with a good change up, his numbers would be highly impressive, even more so for a out of sight/mind rookie.
That being said, until he gets that changeup, lefties will feast on him.
I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang
by AdjustedExpectations on Aug 29, 2008 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We're hosed if he is
cause I don’t see him even as a .500-caliber pitcher next season.
by Red in Chicago on Aug 25, 2008 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You've missed a couple...
Clayton Mortenson and, to a lesser extent, Lance Lynn, could probably replace Boggs if we had to deal him to get a bona-fide second baseman like Johnson. I would put Boggs near the top of the list of prospects in the Cardinal organization, but he’s not elite; I wouldn’t deal him for just anyone, but a second baseman who can handle the bat — yes please!
Besides all of that, I’m not sure that Boggs has a place on this team in the next couple of years anyway. I would say that Garcia has a better chance of making the rotation next season, Thompson, Todd, and Mortenson could easily handle being the injury replacement./long relievers, and I believe that McClellan will be given an opportunity to make the rotation next year as well, and I consider him a better talent than Boggs. If we could deal Boggs with Craig to get K. Johnson I’d probably do that deal.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 25, 2008 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lance Lynn looks like the real deal
He’s got good mechanics and pretty good stuff so far. In a couple of years he’ll make Boggs look like weak tea. Ditto Jess Todd, who has a much higher ceiling than Boggs or Garcia.
by Red in Chicago on Aug 25, 2008 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
I was simply stating that Lynn isn’t going to step in and fill Bogg’s shoes right now as a starter ready for big league rotation time next year. But I think RHSP is a source of depth in the farm system, so I wouldn’t be upset to trade Boggs to fill a need.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 25, 2008 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love KJ
I watch the Braves quite a bit, they are my second favorite team (behind STL). I have always been a big fan of KJ and I would be thrilled if we could get him.
Of course it would depend on how much we would have to give up to get him though….
"Even when the rain falls, Even when the flood starts rising, Even when the storm comes, I am washed by the water!" -NeedToBreathe
by Calhoun on Aug 25, 2008 9:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
OF's
The Braves need OF’s badly – I would think that a few of the OF’s from our present surplus might be of interest to them. Throw in a pitching prospect or two to address their pitching needs and we might have a shot at Johnson and/or Lillibridge. I am ok with Johnson – I would view him as a mild but definite upgrade at 2B. He’s not worth three players IMHO (although I guess throwing in Kennedy is akin to DFA’ing him – so maybe that’s ok). I’d be a lot more interested in Lillibridge (if he’s available…..).
by wildman on Aug 25, 2008 10:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
SHIP SKIP!!!
i love the guy but i can’t imagine his value will be any higher than this off-season.
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Aug 25, 2008 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That would fix a hole in our team
But add another……..we would need a leadoff hitter does anyone think Felipe can do that if we traded Skip?
"Even when the rain falls, Even when the flood starts rising, Even when the storm comes, I am washed by the water!" -NeedToBreathe
by Calhoun on Aug 25, 2008 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
rasmus can lead off.
Rasmus
Ludwick
Pujols
Ankiel
Glaus
Molina
Johnson
Pitcher
Renteria
by abothecardinal on Aug 25, 2008 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Forgot about Rasmus
Obvious choice… but I dont know where you got Renteria from…………
"Even when the rain falls, Even when the flood starts rising, Even when the storm comes, I am washed by the water!" -NeedToBreathe
by Calhoun on Aug 25, 2008 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you'll see
I bet they get Renteria. the 9 spot would be perfect for him. He’d get his rbi chances with the pitcher moving Johnson into scoring position, and he’d also be the 2nd leadoff hitter that we always thought he should be.
by abothecardinal on Aug 25, 2008 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You all need to think outside the box. 2nd base is not a difficult position to play, we don’t need a 2B next to the candidates name. I don’t see why Bryan Anderson is not being considered for a move to second with yadi hitting .300+ and being the best defensive catcher in the game.
by Yadi on Aug 25, 2008 12:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
probably...
because Anderson has tremendous trade value as a good-hitting/decent fielding catcher. I don’t expect Anderson will spend many years playing for the BOB.
by cardzfanbub on Aug 25, 2008 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'd be shocked if Anderson is still in this organization
by spring training next year.
boo cubs, hooray beer
by Raconteur on Aug 25, 2008 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You may be right...
I think he’ll be around through the end of next season and he’ll get some time with the big club. We don’t really have anyone else in the system that could fill in if Yadi goes down – do we? I’d be surprised if he’s still here at the end of 2010.
by cardzfanbub on Aug 26, 2008 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably
becaue Biggio is the only catcher to successfully make that move in the history of baseball.
I guess we should just turn every failed pitching prospect into a center fielder that plays good defense and has the potential to hit 25+ homers a year too?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 25, 2008 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm thinking we should move Nick Stavinoha to 2nd
He hits well for average, but doesn’t have much power. Seems like a logical fit. I’m sure he could do it because any retarded, blind monkey can play 2nd.
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
by Tackle Box on Aug 25, 2008 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
exactly
if it’s not a difficult position to play, why is it that teams don’t just stick a 50 homer guy there all the time, like they do in right field or at first base? There must be something to that….
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 25, 2008 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Alfonso Soriano...
is proof positive that 2nd is an easy position.
by cardzfanbub on Aug 25, 2008 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
fyi
soriano was a terrible 2nd baseman. teams finally figured that out and moved him to the outfield. not understanding how this supports the “2nd is easy” idea.
by azruavatar on Aug 25, 2008 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think he meant to say "isn't"
at least i hope he did, otherwise we might end up turning Anderson into a left fielder…..
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
by Tackle Box on Aug 25, 2008 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
or he might have been being sarcastical
that happens sometimes on the interwebs.
"..and that, my liege, is how we know the Earth to be banana shaped." -Sir Belvedere
by SleepyCA on Aug 26, 2008 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was following in line with the thread...
Tackle Box and Fourstick made ridiculous statements – I thought mine was as well. Why do I suck so bad at sarcasm???
by cardzfanbub on Aug 26, 2008 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I believe
that Tackle Box and I both understood your sarcasm…you’re doing just fine on that front. :-D
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 26, 2008 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sometimes when the...
sarcasm is so apparent to me it doesn’t translate to others…oh well. I had this issue the other day in the replay thread.
by cardzfanbub on Aug 26, 2008 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW
I would have capitalized “IS” just to over do it. I think there was too much left that left in in question. Was that a typo? Does he know what he’s talking about? But, nevertheless, even the most blatant sarcasm on here gets misinterpreted by at least one person. Often, that’s part of the fun, to see who didn’t get it.
I wouldn’t sweat it though.
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
by Tackle Box on Aug 26, 2008 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
or get rid of 2b all together
With our outfield surplus we could play four outfielders. Bring back the rover.
by abothecardinal on Aug 25, 2008 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not really
Besides retarded and blind, you also have to be 6-foot-four or taller and weigh at least 250 pounds.
by Red in Chicago on Aug 25, 2008 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
craig
i felt craig would be a good fit cuz he is a major leaguer by around 2010-2011, right around the time chipper gets ready to retire, although i would do a deal for mather instead, they are about equal in my book
by thenextgen on Aug 27, 2008 9:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Johnson would be a downgrade over the Miles/Kennedy Platoon....
and with the proposed cost of Boggs and Craig would definitely not benefit the Cards. Based on both ’08 and his career numbers, Johnson could be a downgrade. I would take that in a heartbeat if I were the Braves. Here is my reasoning:
The Kennedy and Miles platoon has a combined line of .343/.382/.725 while playing second base. I did not include Miles and Kennedy’s plate appearances at other positions or as pinch-hitters.
This comes to a GPA of .250 while playing second base. If this GPA is converted to runs, Kennedy and Miles have contributed a combined 56.19 runs on offense as second basemen.
On the other hand, Johnson has a line of .335/.409/.744 for a .253 GPA. This comes to a total of 58.46 runs contributed offensively for Johnson. If we substitute Johnson’s career line of .352/.426/.778, he would have contributed 63.42 runs on offense.
Offensively, Johnson would have contributed a mere 2.27 runs more than the Miles/Kennedy platoon this year. If he would have mirrored his career line, he would have contributed 7.23 more than Kennedy/Miles. Now, on to defense.
Miles and Kennedy have zone ratings of .800 and .858 respectively over a combined 567 chances. Assuming a hypothetical perfect second basemen would have converted 100% of these plays into outs, Kennedy and Miles have “cost” the team 93.158 baserunners. Using a rule of thumb that 37% of baserunners score, this means that Miles and Kennedy have “cost” the team 34.47 runs on defense.
Johnson has a zone rating of .791 over 541 chances. Using the same formula above, Johnson has “cost” the Braves 113.07 baserunners, or 41.84 runs. If Johnson would have played second base for the Cards this season, this run total would have risen to 43.84 runs.
Therefore, using zone rating, if Johnson would have played second base for the cards this season rather than Miles/Kennedy, the team would have given up an extra 9.37 runs.
If we combine offensive and defensive runs, the cards’ run differential would be 7.1 runs worse-off this season with Kelly Johnson as their second basemen. If Johnson was having his average offensive year, the cards would be 2.14 runs worse-off.
Therefore, I think that this would be a bad trade. There is a big chance that Kelly Johson would be a downgrade over Miles and Kennedy and the cards would lose Boggs and Craig, both decent prospects. In fact, other than Utley and Kinsler, I do not know that there is any second basemen out there that would be worth the cost in salary or talent to replace the Kennedy/Miles platoon. (Maybe I’ll save that for another day)
P.S. I didn’t take into account the difference in plate appearances b/t Johnson and the Miles/Kennedy platoon…there is only a 8 PA difference.
by psrowlan on Aug 28, 2008 2:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My apologies, my defensive analysis was flawed...
I used total chances on defense rather than balls hit into zone.
Miles and Kennedy have had a combined 299 balls hit into their zone this year and converted 252 into outs for a combined zone rating of .843. Thus, their defense inside of their zone has cost the team 47 baserunners. On the other hand, the duo has made 39 plays outside of their zone. Take that away from the plays they didn’t make within the zone, we come up with 8 baserunners that would not have reached base but-for Miles/Kennedy. Convert this to runs, and the Miles/Kennedy combo has “cost” the team 2.96 runs this season.
Johnson has had 312 balls hit into his zone this year and converted 256 of those into outs for a zone rating of .821. He made 21 plays outside of his zone. So, Johnson’s defense has resulted in a net of 35 baserunners that should not have reached base. Convert this into runs, and Johnson has cost the Braves 12.95 runs on defense.
If Johnson would have had the same amount of balls hit into his zone as Miles/Kennedy, using the same zone rating, he would have only cost his team 12.21 runs.
Therefore, all things equal, Johnson’s defense cost his team 12.21 runs while Miles/Kennedy cost the cards 2.96, a difference of 9.25 runs. This gap still engulfs both the 2.27 runs on offensive Johnson would have contributed over Kennedy/Miles and the 7.23 additional runs he would provide in an average season.
Different numbers, same conclusion—No to Kelly Johnson.
Also, although his offense has stunk, Kennedy has been having a hell of a year in the field…29 plays made outside of zone in only 577 innings, good fifth in the league. For reference, every player ahead of him has played at least 900 innings.
numbers from THT.
by psrowlan on Aug 28, 2008 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW
Dewan has KJ at -5 (0 last year), Kennedy at +18 (0 from 2006-2007), and Miles at 0 (-1 from 2006-2007). This year, he’d be a downgrade. Johnson is -1 in BtRuns, Kennedy is -11 and Miles is -3. So that’s twelve runs difference on offense in about the same number of plate appearances. -25 plays works out to 18.75 runs, and we have a difference of a little over half a win.
Sidenote: it looks like you are using .37 as the run-value/play. At 2B that’s about .75.
What we are most concerned with obviously is what we can expect going forward. Before this year PECOTA expected Johnson to be a .290 EqA hitter. That’s incredibly valuable at 2B – good for a 33 VORP. It expected Kennedy and Miles to basically hit like replacement level 2B. Also Miles isn’t signed for next year, and he’d cost a bit in arbitration after an outlier career year.
So nudge all that around and we’re probably talking about a projected 1.5 win upgrade for next year with Johnson. This year he’s been a few runs above average and Kennedy and Miles are doing things you don’t project them to repeat. Also both are at the fall-off-a-cliff age for 2B. The money would be negligible between him and Miles and you’d have a high-ceiling 2B under team control through the same time period that Pujols is signed. That’s something that you go after if it costs you something like Mitch Boggs + an outfielder not named Rasmus or Ludwick.
by haltz on Aug 29, 2008 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't see
SleepyCA’s post below. Sorry to be repetitive on a couple of things.
by haltz on Aug 29, 2008 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Once again, sorry I double counted ooz.
With the correction, Johnson’s defense would result in 2.59 runs allowed more than Miles/Kennedy. Combined with his offense this year, Johnson would have resulted the run differential being reduced by a mere .37 runs. But, if he were having his average year, he would have contributed an additional 4.64 runs to the run differential, just under 1/2 of a win.
Still yet, the cost of Boggs and Craig is too much for a 1/2 win improvement, imo.
by psrowlan on Aug 28, 2008 4:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
what if you consider the gain in a roster spot?
you’re replacing two players with one therefore you’ve got another spot to fill on the roster. that spot could be filled by Miles, Kennedy or possibly even someone like Phelps who would be a bat off the bench.
I have no idea if this changes anything, btw. Just throwing it out there.
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
by Tackle Box on Aug 28, 2008 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It all depends on who you put in to replace them.
If you put in Ryan or Lopez (or another MIF to still have 4) then no real difference.
by stlfan on Aug 28, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i like what you are doing here
good work, trying to make the decision based on numbers.
Couple of thoughts: First off, the “while playing second base” caveat is meaningless. Miles has a .817 OPS as a 2B this year; his true talent is not .817 OPS. Playing second base does not make him a better hitter. He’s just had some luck when at 2B (BABIP of .366 as a 2B) and if he played 2B only, that would regress. Regardless of the small sample splits, Miles is having a career year with the bat that he is unlikely to repeat, and Johnson is having an off year (which is the only reason he is available at all) and yet the difference is still in the margins. Johnson is entering his prime and Miles/Kennedy are leaving theirs; I’d be willing to bet that if you did this study this time next year, you’d get a very different answer. Most projections had johnson as an .830-.850 OPS player this year.
Second, and it’s not a big deal because your conclusion is correct at least in rough order of magnitude, but I’m unable to duplicate your numbers. I can get in the ballpark, but can’t figure out how to get the exact results you did. Did you do park adjustments for the SLG and OBP before calculating GPA? Also, did you do any kind of adjustment to match up number of plate appearances/playing time?
Third, did you consider using linear weights instead of the “37% of runners score” thing? Since hit can also drive in runs, hits have value that is higher than just the probability of the hitter scoring. A single is empirically worth about .47 runs, not .37, which makes AK’s defense look even more valuable.
"..and that, my liege, is how we know the Earth to be banana shaped." -Sir Belvedere
by SleepyCA on Aug 28, 2008 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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