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Eighteen... And Life?

Playing poor teams certainly always feels like it cures all ills, doesn't it? Well, except for when it's the Pittsburgh Pirates, of course, who continue to give our boys in red fits the last two seasons. Unfortunately, the Pirates still play like, well, the Pittsburgh Pirates against the rest of the division, offering the Cardinals no help in gaining ground.

What was really remarkable about the eighteen runs was the fact that it was all done without a single home run hit by the Cardinals. For the most part, it was all with dinks and doinks, supplemented by walks galore. I was trying to research this morning how often a team scores that many runs in a single game without putting a ball over the wall, but it's surprisingly tough to get that exact situation filtered, and I simply don't have the time to find it out this morning. I'm still interested, and I'm going to do some more looking, so I may find the results at some later date.

The offensive output last night was fantastic to watch, but the real story, of course, was the return of Adam Wainwright. Obviously, the Braves aren't exactly a juggernaut right now (though they are better this series than when the Cards last played them due to the return of Chipper and Brian McCann), but anyone who predicted Wainwright would be able to throw six innings that efficiently, giving up only a single tally, would have certainly raised my own personal bullshit alarm. I didn't think there was any way he would be as sharp as he was after such a significant layoff. That had to have put to rest any thoughts of moving Wainwright into the bullpen, didn't it?

With the return of A.D.A.M. going so very swimmingly, you have to feel pretty good about the team this morning as a Cardinal fan. I still don't really like our chances of chasing down either the Cubbies or the bunch from the Good Land, but with Wainwright back out there, at least the Cards have one pitcher they can really point to as The Guy. Even with as good as Kyle Lohse has pitched for most of the year, he's never been just the go-to guy, the one pitcher that you feel totally secure with on the mound. Neither has Todd Wellemeyer. Wainer, though, I would follow to hell and back, so long as he was toeing the rubber.

Adding to the possible reasons for optimism this morning is the improving health of Chris Carpenter. If there is a single scenario that I see in which the Cardinals have a legitimate shot at running down one of the teams in front of them, it has to involve both Carp and Wainwright pitching effectively for the month of September. With the way the off days fall, as has been discussed here and elsewhere, you could almost go with a straight four man rotation. If you can start either Chris Carpenter or Adam Wainwright in exactly half of your games over a given span, you have to like your chances of stringing together some victories.

Of course, what'll probably happen is that Carpenter will come back in a week or two, look pretty good again, and Tony will shift the Wagonmaker down to closing duties and waste their best chance to possibly stay a relevant part of this race, but hey, them's the breaks, right?

In the interest of brevity this morning, I'm just going to present you all with our discussion topic for this Saturday. Assuming that both Carpenter and Wainwright will be able to contribute down the stretch for this club, how would you arrange the whole rotation situation? Would you go with a four man rotation, with C &W taking half of the team's contests the rest of the way? If so, who are the other two pitchers you slot in? Or, do you try to get each of your recovering aces some extra rest, and stay with a full five man rotation? This might not be a bad plan of action, as there is a lot riding on the health of these particular two arms for quite a while in the future. Or, he asks, holding his breath, do you go ahead and shift Adam down to the 'pen, trusting that he'll receive a steady diet of leads to protect and that he will prove to be the best choice to close those games out?

A couple of other quick notes:

Over at Baseball Prospectus, Joe Sheehan recently took a look at the National League MVP race. It is subscription only, but I will tell you that he essentially concludes that a) Albert Pujols is taken for granted to an unbelievable degree, and b) he's pretty easily the most deserving candidate for the award this year. Of course, he's basically preaching to the choir, at least as far as we VEBers are concerned, but it's still nice to hear someone else say it.

John Mozeliak mentioned in a chat recently that Brett 'The Hitman' Walrus (can you imagine the marketing campaign?), the Cards' first round pick this year, will most likely be playing in the Arizona Fall League. It'll be interesting to see how Wallace handles the assignment; not necessarily from a talent standpoint, as I think he's plenty advanced to make a trip to the AFL, but simply from an endurance standpoint. This is Wallace's first year in pro ball; he's never had to deal with a schedule as grueling as this before. To send him to play in an advanced league for an additional month or so at the end of the year, after he's already played more games than ever before in his life, tells you a lot about what the organisation thinks about Wallace. I look at the way they've handled him to this point and I have to believe that the Cardinals really want to see if Wallace is going to be ready to take over third base for Troy Glaus for the 2010 season.

The folks over at Baseball America are doing their annual 'Best Tools' features, in which the managers from each minor league vote for the players they feel are the best at a given skill or talent. Four Cardinal farmhands were recognised: Chris Perez as the best reliever in the Pacific Coast League, Jose Martinez as the Best Defensive Second Baseman in the Texas Legue, Francisco Samuel has the Best Breaking Ball in the Florida State League, and Mitchell Boggs as the best Starting Prospect, also in the PCL.

Perez comes as no real surprise, but I must admit to being somewhat surprised by Boggs. Still, it's incredibly exciting just to have players that are legitimately even in the picture when you're talking about things like this. Martinez? Eh. Good to hear his name in here, but he's been as disappointing as any player in the minors this year after putting his name right at the top of the depth chart with his performance last season and in spring training this year. As for Samuel, he's starting to look just a little bit like another undersized, Venezuelan, hard throwing, right handed reliever named Francisco- the one with Rodriguez on the back of his jersey out in Anaheim.

Alright. Gotta go. Game time is @ three this afternoon. I'll see you all back then.

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One Goalie's opinion

I think TLR and Dunc are in “wait-and-see” mode regarding Carpenter. As long as Young Pitcher remains successful, and Carp won’t be available until September, Waino will remain in the rotation. Once Carp returns, he’ll be on a pitch count… but since the rosters will be expanded, there will be more bodies to pitch the middle innings in Carp’s starts.

IF Waino and Carp suffer no setbacks, I’d use them both in the rotation as available. At this point, you’ve already stretched Waino out to be a starter; I’d only even think about Waino as closer in the event of a Perez meltdown. I believe Perez is the goods… we’ll see how he reacts after he fails.

Best-case scenario, you’ve got both Waino and Carp as part of a four-man rotation, with the Young Pitchers (McClellan and Perez) at the back end. Mix and match with the rest of the rotation… pitch whoever’s “hot” as frequently as possible, Give whoever else extra rest.

It’s a day-to-day situation; wait and see how it plays out!

"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra

by The Ol Goaler on Aug 23, 2008 11:32 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Colonel Welly to the bullpen

Let’s do the 4 man for the month of September—Carp, Wainwright, Lohse, Looper. That means the Colonel back in the pen able to turn up the amps on his FB. My thinking is that once Welly goes to the pen he should be the backup closer. Having the Colonel in the pen also limits the team’s exposure to Franklinstein.

As far as catching the Brewers, our chances take a huge leap forward if we sweep the 2 game series next week. If we split, it still ain’t over but CC looms large making 1/4 of their starts in Sept.

by jjray on Aug 23, 2008 11:37 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Nooooo. Col stays put.

"Why does he keep saying that?"

by Red Blazer on Aug 23, 2008 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

As much as this makes my head spin

Right now, I feel that our 4 best pitchers are Carp (obviously if he comes back fine), Wainwright, Wellemeyer, and Looper. Well, maybe I should say, most reliable.

Lohse has gotten into a rut lately, and while I think he’ll at least right the ship a bit (and I’m not asking him to be an ace or anything), until he does, I don’t have a ton of faith in him. But, I highly doubt he’d be the one to go to the pen and I’m pretty sure Looper would bark about it and Duncan wouldn’t move Wellemeyer withing 50 feet of the bullpen, so we’re probably just gonna have to have a 5 man rotation with extra rest for the starters.

In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.

by Tackle Box on Aug 23, 2008 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What about...

“pulling a brew crew” and throwing Lohse at home, where he has pitched much better and throwing Wellemeyer on the road where he has pitched a lot better?

We could almost do the same with Pineiro at home and Looper on the road.

That would give you a 6 man rotation for four spots in September, when we can go the 4 man rotation route.

At Home
1 – Waino
2 – Carp
3 – Lohse
4 – Pineiro

On the Road
1 – Waino
2 – Carp
3 – Welley
4 – Looper

by stlfan on Aug 23, 2008 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

outside the box

That’s one hell of an inventive solution. I like it but my only problem is it deprives us of Col. Welly’s services in the pen. As much as LaDuncan is in love with Gen. McClellan, the buy is shaky. He invariably lets runner on base then pitches out of a jam …. ala our friend Izzy. With Springer pretty much limited to 10 pitches or so (loses effectiveness quickly as his pitch count goes up) and McClellan shaky, we need the Colonel to stabilize the setup role.

by jjray on Aug 24, 2008 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

D. Ducan is that you?

reply to “Nooooo. Col stays put.”

by jjray on Aug 23, 2008 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I really, really don't see

Wainwright in the bullpen. If it comes to that, the team will have already conceded defeat. It was a panic move made three weeks ago that has now been superseded by events. I’m also not sure Carpenter’s status means diddly to where Wainwright fits. Why would it? IMHO, the whole “Wainwright’s job depends upon Carpenter” was just an obfuscation used to help climb down from the stupid decision the club had made. It was and is pretty much a non sequitur.

Young Pitcher has the job, whether he’s called the “closer” or not. With Izzy’s implosion they have to know whether Perez can handle the job next. It’s a pretty damn big piece of the payroll picture, don’t forget. Not having to look outside the organization for a closer means money for the middle infield, etc.

by Red in Chicago on Aug 23, 2008 11:39 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

my 2 cents

you start “country and western” half the remaining games with each having a predetermined back-up. with the off days the pen gets extra rest , so this should not tax them. by next week (sept.), it’s a no brainer to pull this off. i vote for this based on not only the fact that they are better, but the psychological lift it can give the team for the stretch run. very important i think.

ot, but went to the mariners-a’s game last night and saw daric barton and miguel cairo playing first base for the opponents. bizzare as it seems, cairo had the better night hitting, but neither handled first base very well. player of the game: corcoran for the m’s. don’t know anything about him, but the combo of stuff (only some of which ended up in the strike zone) and attitude looked like a smaller version of the prez. know he’s bounced around a bit, including being outrighted by the nats, but he looks worth having around.

If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, perhaps you haven't grasped the situation!

by sportsman on Aug 23, 2008 11:39 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

good idea

I like this approach. With the expanded rosters, we can have Boggs, Parisi, and Garcia available to go 3-4 innings each if needed.

by apack on Aug 23, 2008 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Where is Silent Bob?

I am totally in agreement with his position that Carp needs to be in the bullpen if he is going to pitch again this year. Makes a ton more sense than Wainer and somebody has to give Young Pitcher a break as we win 19 out of 23 down the stretch.

No amount of success this year is worth endangering Carpenter for the next three years.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Aug 23, 2008 11:53 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

i assumed carp was healthy enough to pitch. kind of doubt it, but just in case he is, i’d go with having them do what they do best-start

"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension

by sportsman on Aug 23, 2008 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

-1

Who says he is endangered by pitching?

by Red in Chicago on Aug 23, 2008 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Then 90 percent of the pitchers in MLB

who have already had injuries should stop. It’s bad for their health!

by Red in Chicago on Aug 23, 2008 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Carp should not be starting

Rehab or no, he really hasn’t pitched in about 17 months and has undergone two surgeries with a recent setback. Silent Bob can quote chapter and verse about TJ recovery times, but IIRC Carp is still pretty early in the recovery cycle from his TJ in 7/07. Expecting him to throw 80-90+ pitches is just too demanding and not very responsible. Matt Morris came back to the ‘pen, John Smoltz came back to the ’pen. If Carp should damage the elbow again it could endanger his pitching career, as second time TJs are not very successful. We still have a minimum of $44.5 million invested in Carp after this year, let’s do what is best for him long term.

I wouuld much rather see him pitch in late-inning high leverage situations with low pitch counts and plent of rest, if at all. If he can’t be healthy next year then we are “in a tight spot”. Plus, it just makes more sense to leave Wainer in the rotation as he is coming back from a far less dramatic injury.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Aug 23, 2008 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Read this

article. I think it’s awfully presumptuous to say Carpenter is at risk of blowing out his elbow. Most likely his shoulder is sore because his elbow was intensively rehabbed while his shoulder muscles were inactive.

by Red in Chicago on Aug 23, 2008 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

kerry wood is the star of that article

which was written in 2003. I can’t tell if you are joking or not, but I’d prefer that Chris Carpenter not follow the Kerry Wood career path, at least any more than he already has.

"..and that, my liege, is how we know the Earth to be banana shaped." -Sir Belvedere

by SleepyCA on Aug 23, 2008 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wood had two outstanding years

after his TJ surgery and prior to the article (2002 & 2003). But he also threw an average of 212 innings during those years—far more than he had ever thrown before. Wood then developed knee problems and tore his rotator cuff, which kept him pretty much out of action for following three years, from 2005-07.

So were his future difficulties the result of a rushed rehab or overwork by Dusty Baker? Yes, he strained his tricep in 2004. But that was four years after his TJ surgery. It can hardly be conclusively tied to it. The number of innings, in fact, is about the only measure studies have tied to shoulder and elbow injury frequency.

I think the bottom line is this: Carpenter has got the best experts in the country on his case. If they think he’s fine to pitch, I can live with that. But he has mechanical flaws that will continue to put him on the DL over time. Leaving him in the bullpen for another month or two isn’t going to change that. I just hope he’s healthy more than not, especially between now and when his contract expires.

by Red in Chicago on Aug 23, 2008 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

this is going to sound more snarky that i would like

but it is at least equally presumptious to say Carpenter is not at risk of blowing out his elbow by going into the rotation in a pennant race at his current level of recovery. Neither of us knows what exactly is going on inside his arm/shoulder, but I am not willing to bet $44.5 million on it.

Silent Bob?

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Aug 23, 2008 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My four man rotation would be without a doubt...

Carpenter
Wainwright
Wellemeyer
Looper

Each one of those guys is one tough hombre capable of dominating a game. I like my chances with that four and I would be willing to sink or swim with that rotation.

"Why does he keep saying that?"

by Red Blazer on Aug 23, 2008 12:13 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

short-term memory perhaps?...

Lohse has been pretty bad lately, but I agree that he’s gotta be in there somewhere.

Nick Stavinoah = John Gall

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Aug 23, 2008 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Whoops. Sorry. Drop Loop and give me Lohse. Although Loop has been strong lately.

I guess now we are dealing with that pitching surplus. Put Loop & Piniero in the pen for long relief and we might have something going on finally.

"Why does he keep saying that?"

by Red Blazer on Aug 23, 2008 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So Lohse sits?

I’d sub out Welle or Looper for Lohse. Just my opinion

by Ray Lankford on Aug 23, 2008 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I said the exact same thing up the thread a bit

I just hadn’t read down this far to see you and i agreed on it.

In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.

by Tackle Box on Aug 23, 2008 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Temptation...

Personally, I’d want to leave Lohse in the mix because of the way he’s contributed for most of the year… But, I’d also be tempted to look at the way each of the remaining options (Lohse, Looper, Wellemeyer, & Pineiro) have faired since that demoralizing sweep by the Brewers in July.

Since July 25th:

Lohse: 5 starts, 27.2 IP, 6.83 ERA, 2.50 K/BB
Looper: 5 starts, 35 IP, 2.06 ERA, 3.00 K/BB
Welley: 5 starts, 31.1 IP, 2.30 ERA, 2.33 K/BB
Pineiro: 6 appearances (5 starts), 33 IP, 5.73 ERA, 4.25 K/BB

Despite Lohse’s inferior ERA, I’d still want him in the rotation… I just don’t feel like you can jerk around a guy that, in many ways, saved our season. Would we even be having this conversation if Mozeliak wouldn’t have signed him? …But Looper and Wellemeyer have both pitched extremely well. At this point, I think Looper gets that last spot… but these numbers for any of the above players could become distorted very quickly with an ugly appearance.

My 4-man right now: Wainwright, Carp, Lohse, Looper

Ask me again in a week and I might change my mind.

by AndyB83 on Aug 23, 2008 12:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Equals five-man rotation

Pinata to the bullpen. Give Carpenter extra rest if possible. Works okay and you don’t have to fool around with the rotation that much.

by Red in Chicago on Aug 23, 2008 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

welley....

has to stay in the rotation in my opinion. i think a tie goes to a power pitcher, which welley has been dominant when he’s one. and he’s been on as of late. i think, if i was in charge i would go with a 5 man, giving everyone an extra day of rest, considering that ww, carp, and welley have all delt with injuries this year. i love lohse, and he has saved our season, but if he doesn’t right the ship soon, and there is an odd man out, i think it has to be him.

by bwhitt on Aug 23, 2008 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Stay with a five-man

but keep who ever is throwing the best on regular rest and give extra rest to the guys who are scuffling. And Carp to the ’pen.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Aug 23, 2008 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

6-Man?

Why not try a six man rotation? Everyone gets extra rest. I know that this somewhat limits the amount of starts that go to your best pitcher(s), but with the injuries that WW and Carp have suffered this year it might be best to give them an extra day between every start.

I know that this did not work out so well last year…then again 2/6 of the mix last year were Mulder (still hurt) and Maroth (still sucks).

Anyway, just an idea to try and keep WW and Carp healthy and effective…even if they are used less often.

by indakind on Aug 23, 2008 1:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Too much rest

with all the off days, they’re already getting extra rest (if it’s a 5 man with Carp), so working a 6 man would be overkill IMO. Also, they’ve already moved Pineiro to the pen, so I think that addresses that part of the equation.

In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.

by Tackle Box on Aug 23, 2008 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that sheehan article was weird

i saw it yesterday, while messing around with the WARP stats in the daily thread, and the numbers on BP didn’t line up at all with the numbers he posted. His PA number indicates that the numbers were collected on Tuesday or early wednesday, but the warp1 and vorp aren’t even close to what the players had at the time- IE, Pujols was well north of 9.5 WARP1 by the time he had 499 PA; he’s at 10.1 today with 508 PA’s. Berkman has somehow gained 1.2 WARP1 in 8 PA’s as well. Very strange.

The conclusion is still the same- Albert should be MVP- and if anything, using the correct values for the quoted stats makes him look even better:

"..and that, my liege, is how we know the Earth to be banana shaped." -Sir Belvedere

by SleepyCA on Aug 23, 2008 1:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

of course i added ludwick

since if you are going to talk about david wright and matt holliday you have to talk about luddy. If TLR hadn’t given 100 or so of Luddy’s PA’s to someone else when he was murdering the ball early on, his WARP1 (a counting stat) would be right up there with Albert.

"..and that, my liege, is how we know the Earth to be banana shaped." -Sir Belvedere

by SleepyCA on Aug 23, 2008 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great Game last night

That was the first time I have seen the Cards Win in person in years. They showed a graphic at the end of the game saying that the Cards record for hits is 30 set in like 1892 or something. ESPN today said that the 26 was the first since 1932 when they also won their game 18-3. Fun game, loved seeing Molina at 1st :)

I also dont get why Molina was moved down in the order to 7th, he should be 6th and Lopez 7th even though it worked out in the end it cost us in the 1st.

by StLHugo on Aug 23, 2008 2:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm sure it had something to do with breaking up the righties.

Skip, Lud, Pujols, Ankiel, Glaus, Lopez, Molina, Wainwright, Izturis.

L, R, R, L, R, S, R, R, S.

In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.

by Tackle Box on Aug 23, 2008 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, great. Thanks, RB.

I have Skid Row stuck in my head. Fantastic.

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on Aug 23, 2008 2:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

All day long.

In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.

by Tackle Box on Aug 23, 2008 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lineup

Same as yesterday per yahoo. Why mess with a good thing, eh, Tone?

Skip
Ludwick
Albert
Rick
Troy
Floppy
Yadi
WCBW’s BFF
Izturis

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on Aug 23, 2008 3:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Tadallion must stay in the rotation

so should Lohse. BUT i’d put him on a short leash. if he has two more “bad” starts, put LOOP in his spot. with Carp & Adam leading us, i too RB would feel completely comfortable crashing the gates of hell, kicking some demon ass, and riding out victoriously with the devils head on his trident.

hope y’all are enjoying the game, i’m going to go get some more fresh air

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Aug 23, 2008 5:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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