They drive me crazy.

I dunno. I really can’t think of a good reason. Maybe one of the young arms will impress in Spring training. Maybe they’ll resign Looper or less likely Lohse. I would be ok with both comming back.

The only thing that is a guarantee for next year’s rotation is injury. It will happen. I think Mo is wise to look for at least one more starter from outside the organization (this includes Lohse and Looper, who will be free agents), maybe more. Don’t fret about the opportunities for AAA pitchers coming up through the system – they’ll have plenty of chances to prove themselves throughout the season.

A reasonable way to view the rotation at the beginning of a major league season is to evaluate which 7 or 8 pitchers may be available at any given time. Mo listed four, so that would leave at least 3 more needed to be competitive throughout the season.
Even with the AAA arms we’ve seen, more will be needed.

Stock the rotation, fix one of the middle infield slots on the offensive side without giving up defense at SS, and the Cardinals look very competitive going into 2009.

AJ Burnett

and with all the good prospects from the farm….. I don’t know if they have to actually spend that much. Am I wrong in thinking that this team for next year needs two MIF’s that can hit for power (one from the farm, one FA) and a #3 starter?….. and I don’t think you need to spend 35 mil for that.

with a big dollar multi-year deal to be a mistake this off-season. Why? Because the flexibility you seek for 2009 and more importantly 2010 is already built into the system. 2009 is Pineiro’s last season with the Cards and therefore represents the ideal 1 year filler for the back of the rotation. If the young ones surprise in 2009, one may push a struggling Pineiro from the rotation or at worst, take his spot in 2010. Moreover, Wellemeyer is a FA after the 2009 season as well. The Cards already have flexible 1 year pitchers in the rotation for 2009 that can be supplanted in 2010 with home grown starters (ideally groomed next season in the bullpen).

Looking generally at the team’s needs and organizational depth, I would much rather see the Cards blow the budget on a big time FA pitcher like Ben Sheets than dink and dunk $3 million and $5 million a season on “fixing” the bullpen.

Could be the third roll of the dice after Wells and Lohse. See who is hanging around after the big contracts are signed and who can be “fixed” by Duncan.

There will be missed time in the rotation due to injuries to the four listed pitchers during 2009 and that is where guys like Garcia/Todd etc can be very useful for the team and gain from the experience.

In line with Tony’s animal rights work, should we refer to Duncan’s work as “neutered” instead of “fixed”?

Tatanka

They think his head is large. They have also put a poster of “Harry” of “Harry and the Hendersons” in his locker.

Nice to see Rookies still get treated like rookies.

McC was a starter until this season, is cheap and under control, has proven himself in the ’pen (which is important to TLR), and has dynamite stuff. Could he follow the Wainwright model and shift into the rotation next season?

in the middle infield doesn’t fill me with a lotta hope, either… among the shortstops, Furcal is 31, and has been hurt all year. Lower back surgery makes him a big question mark, at least to my mind. Orlando Cabrera is 34, and while he’s posting a 79 OPS+ this year (down from a career 85 OPS+), his “Most Similar By Age” comparison is (GASP!) Adam Freakin’ Kennedy!

At 2B, the O-Dog presents the most attractive option, but he’s coming off a serious injury (dislocated left wrist), and will likely command close to $10 mil a year in a multi-year deal… he’s making nearly $7 mil this season.

How much would it take to get Derek Lowe? Could the Cardinals go “all-in” on CC or Sheets? How ’bout trying to pry Dempster from the Cubs?

Personally I’d like to see a rotation like this:

Carp
Wainwright
Wellemeyer
Garcia
Piniero

The way I see it, Wellemeyer has shown himself to be a solid middle-rotation guy. He won’t give you a ton of innings, but the ones you get will be effective. Plus, he’s cheap. The Cards are stuck with Piniero, so just plug him in and bite the bullet. I like Garcia b/c he seems to be the most talented and MLB-ready pitcher the Cards system has right now, so I’d like to see him get the first crack at it. Boggs, Mortensen, and Todd should be available as fill-ins for if/when Carp or Wellemeyer miss a few starts. I simply don’t feel that an external solution is really necessary.

much risk of a backup in the starting rotation. As you said all of our top prospects could afford to spend 2009 at Memphis. In 2010 Welly and Pineiro will be gone, so that leaves Wainwright and Carp. Mo should make a play for Sheets, Sabathia, Burnett, and especially Oliver Perez. Granted he’s not exactly a DD/TLR guy, but he could be awesome if he can gain some control a la Welly.

If they aren’t going to make any real improvements to the rotation, the bullpen is going to be fixed by minimal signings and the farm system and the lineup won’t see any significant changes (unless they plan on spending big money on a MIF-which they won’t), then 2009 is going to be just like 2008, a transitional year.

Which will be nice for them, with $35 M in the ‘war chest’ to keep the ‘powder dry’ to make the move on the ‘right type’ player.

The FA market for the MIF is quite pathetic next year. All the half decent talent costs $10 million a year that would be lucky to put up a 100+OPS. 90+ OPS

There is though a lot of good FA starting pitching hopefully drive down costs a little. I think the Cards should sign either Sheets or Burnett to a 3 Year/$50 million contract. Because of previous health concerns we are not forced to extend more than 3 years. I wouldn’t sign any pitcher to over a 3 year contract.

… does this mean that you will support the signing of Jason Jennings (or whoever) next spring on an incentive-laden one-year deal?

while we’re at, let’s start compiling the list of likely patch options:

Jennings
Pavano
Kei Igawa (would require a trade + salary relief)
Colon
Eric Milton
who else? is Jaret Wright available? nate robertson?

intriguing, but unlikely, geezer possibilities for one-year deals:

Randy Johnson
Schilling
Glavine
Kenny Rogers
Jamie Moyer
Maddox

intriguing, but unlikely, trade possibilities:

a package of an OFer or two + one of Boggs, Garcia, Mort for Scott Olsen;
the ever-present possibilites with SanFran (they do need a LH-hitting 1Bman, right?)

these seem to be the options. a notable trade for a pitcher just seems unlikely (if we’re trading, it’s probably gonna be for an infielder), so does the community think we go with option A (reclamation project) or option B (old-guy who’s still decent but not as good as he used to be). who else belongs on these lists?

and he goes crazy and spends tons of money on the team (very likely) will this cause Dewitt to open up his pocketbook more to try to compete? I think this will be a storyline we will see play out in the next couple of years. If Cuban does buy the Cubs (and I think he will) will it force the Cards ownership to turn into buyers a little more than they have been?

Could the NL Central become like the NL East (Yankees/Red Sox) where two teams (Cubs/Cardinals) spend to try and out do each other on a yearly basis or will the Cards ownership keep status quo while the Cubs hike their payroll to the top of the NL?
  
I think DeWitt won’t try to outspend Cuban but we will still be competitive and we will still have payroll in the top 4 in the NL but I do think the Cubs are going to become the “Yankees” of the NL here pretty soon. It will be interesting to see how all of this develops.

good discussion; i don’t have time to respond to individual comments, so i’ll just leave this blanket observation. a factor i completely overlooked in the main post is the high opportunity cost that attends any long-term deal that’s handed out to a pitcher. when you lock in a mediocrity (or worse) with a long-term guaranteed deal, it costs another, potentially better player a chance to come in and upgrade your organization.

case in point from 2007: suppose the cards had re-signed suppan and weaver after 2006 (or miguel batista, or adam eaton, etc etc etc), as a lot of fans and media types wanted them to do. such a signing probably would have cost adam wainwright a chance to join the rotation. the initial plan that off-season, you might recall, was to keep wainwright in the bullpen as a setup man or closer, because that’s where he had been successful. if we had re-signed supps, we would now be stuck with him in our rotation, a $10m a year mediocrity, and we’d never have found out how good wainwright could be.

wellemeyer, looper, and lohse are also players they were able to provide with opportunities because they didn’t tie up those opportunities in long-term contracts w/ mediocre pitchers.

i freely admit that opportunity cost works both ways - you have your failures, viz. reyes and wells. but it only took half a season or so for the team to sort through the pile and determine which pitchers could lead the club forward and which ones had to be discarded. if we had yoked ourselves to suppan / batista and their ilk, wainwright would probably still be pitching out of the bullpen. he’d be the closer - and chris perez would be the setup guy. . . .

we’re currently experiencing an “opportunity cost” penalty with joel pineiro, who will be occupying a slot next year and blocking some other, potentially much better pitcher. any time you sign a guy to multiple years, you have to factor that in. it’s perhaps the biggest argument against any multi-year deal, and i didn’t even mention it in my post.

i agree with those above who’ve said that burnett and lowe might be available for reasonable rates -- they’re both very good pitchers, but they won’t require the kind of jack that a sheets or sabathia will.

I must say that I’m sort of excited that we may be getting close to finally seeing Carpenter and Wainwright atop the rotation together. This team needs that, though the injury concerns are probably not ideal circumstances for them to return under.

just lost in very. ugly. fashion.